Uros Plavsic and what he means for 2020 recruiting and the program writ large

With the addition of 7’1 Arizona State transfer Uros Plavsic to the roster, Tennessee currently has 13 scholarship players for the 2019-2020 season.  However, with most assuming that PG Jordan Bone will choose to stay in the NBA Draft, that will leave one scholarship open.  Given that the Vols will only have five true backcourt players in Lamonte Turner, Jordan Bowden, Josiah James, Jalen Johnson, and Davonte Gaines – and Gaines is in massive need of a year with Garrett Medenwald and Tennessee’s Strength & Conditioning program, so counting on him for meaningful minutes this coming year is probably not smart.  Therefore, between the need for experienced backcourt depth and the need to keep spots open for what is looking like an all-timer class of 2020 (more on that below), adding a grad transfer makes all the sense in the world.  And although the pickings are relatively slim on the grad transfer market at this point, per Jeff Goodman’s transfer rankings the below Guards (ranked overall, including all positions by Goodman) are still available:

20) Jaevin Cumberland, Oakland 
26) Kareem South, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 
34) Ryan Woolridge, North Texas 
43) Donte Fitzpatrick-Dorsey, Tennessee State 
48) Nic Thomas, Norfolk State

It does seem likely that Barnes will wait to make any moves until Bone officially decides, so it could be a week or so before we start to hear about any movement in this regard.  But there has been no discussion about adding a high school PG since Jalen Cone reclassified and decided to sign with Virginia Tech, so as of now it appears to be a grad transfer or bust for the (likely) 13th scholarship.

When it comes to the aforementioned class of 2020, after adding both fast-rising 2019 signee Oliver Robinson-Nkamhoua and Plavsic to go with the three fall signees, Coach Barnes and the Vols currently have three total spots for the class.  One of those is held by 5-star F Corey Walker, who recently transferred from his Florida high school to Hargrave Military Academy (where Gaines just spent a prep year).  Walker is a bigtime talent and projects as an instant impact player in both the low post and on the wing and will give Tennessee a 5-star signee in back to back classes for the first time ever.  The Vols are also the presumed front-runner for borderline 5-star Wing Keon Johnson who hails from Bell Buckle, TN and will announce his commitment on August 6th to either Tennessee, Virginia, or Ohio State.  If Barnes is able to land Johnson, that will not only give the Vols two elite players in the class but also leave just one spot remaining (assuming no future roster movement, which is all we can do at the moment).  With the Vols in very good shape for multiple other high-level 2020 prospects (see list below), one could make the case that adding Plavsic – who might have to sit out the 2019-20 season pending a transfer exemption from the NCAA – in particular could be seen as puzzling. 

#11 Jaden Springer – CG

#22 Cam Hayes – PG currently in the 2021 class who the Vols have approached about reclassifying

#31 Caleb Love – PG

#40 Jayden Stone – SG

#58 Sam Ruzhentsev – Wing

#62 Bryce Thompson – CG

#65 PJ Hall – PF/C

#85 Matthew Murrell – SG

#141 Chris Moore – PF

#149 Dylan Cardwell

And while Love in particular is directly related to new Tennessee assistant coach Kim English (per Rob Lewis of Volquest.com), this list of prospects for whom the Vols are very much in the mix is all before the upcoming summer AAU circuit, when Tennessee’s newfound spot among the country’s top programs along with English’s new (to Tennessee) connections could add to the list.

With all that talent realistically on the board but likely with only one spot remaining, Vol fans can fairly ask the question: “Why add Plavsic, who though a 4-star coming out of high school and is said to possess good mobility and shooting skill along with his 7’1, 240lb frame, was a) not pursued by Barnes initially despite playing up I-75 in Chattanooga, b) was initially committed to Cleveland State before signing with the Sun Devils, and c) redshirted last season, therefore being a bit of a mystery in terms of development and calling into question why he wasn’t able to see the floor? Especially if he might not even be eligible this coming season.” 

Yes, the Vols have a hole in the frontcourt with the loss of Grant Williams (to the NBA), Kyle Alexander and Admiral Schofield (to graduation), and Derrick Walker (to transfer) and with only unproven and inexperienced, albeit potentially talented, backfills.  But neither Plavsic nor Robinson-Nkamhoua project as immediate contributors despite what are clearly talented profiles, so I don’t think getting instant production is the reason. 

Here’s my answer: As much as Barnes clearly has Tennessee recruiting at a higher level than ever, what he values as much as anything is stability and development.  Having the “next man up” ready to step in each and every year and not necessarily bringing in large classes where you’re replacing players who’ve transferred because they’ve been recruited over or are dissatisfied with their role (the anti-Jalen Johnsons) or even one-and-dones that you might not have gotten enough out of (which Barnes experienced a ton of at the end of his run at Texas).  Also, with the 2020 class looking to be heavily loaded with guards and wings – and the potential that James might stay for a second season – it makes sense to have more experienced bigs on the 2020 roster to pair them with.  So rather than, say, PJ Hall (who the Vols are still recruiting and might even take an OV to Knoxville as early as next month) or a Dylan Cardwell coming in as true freshman with theoretically more talent than Plavsic or even Robinson-Nkamhoua but way less experience, Barnes is making the bet that the the two late 2019 signees will be more ready to help the Vols make a big run.  It’s not an across-the-roster bet on experience and development over pedigree, as again the Vols project to have plenty of highly ranked talent, especially at the guard and wing spots (and maybe even down low depending on how they play Corey Walker). 

Barnes clearly is confident in his and his program’s ability to develop players who come to Tennessee with a particular set of skills (shooting, athleticism) and the work ethic to improve.  And he’s also shown, with guys on the current roster like Jalen Johnson, Zach Kent, and Jalen Johnson as clear examples, that he’s not going to run players off who he sees as putting the kind of work in to get better.  That’s what this move with Plavsic seems to be a bet on, even if it’s at the cost of roster spots that very possibly could go to higher ranked/more talented players.  Whether that turns out to be the right play remains to be seen, and we likely won’t know until the 2020-21 season, but it’s hard not to trust a guy who’s done what he’s done while at Tennessee.

Making Progress: Pace and Balance

No team in the country ran fewer plays than Tennessee last season.

The Vols had 716 snaps in 12 games, 59.7 per contest. Maryland was next with 728 snaps. Tennessee also flirted with last place in this category in 2017 – 732 snaps, 125th nationally – but the offense did make strides from one year to the next. The Vols ran fewer plays for the reasons you’d expect in 2017, but were better in all of those categories last fall:

2017Rank2018Rank
Yards Per Play4.771205.4688
Punts Per Game5.9235.533
Third Down %30.7%12038.2%74
Time of Poss.28:1410429:1086
Turnovers18481630

(stats from SportSource Analytics)

The offense improved, but the pace slowed even more. I wouldn’t expect Tennessee to lead the league in total plays under Jeremy Pruitt, no matter who the offensive coordinator is. But we speculated throughout last fall if Tennessee was going slow on purpose, for protection of its defense or otherwise.

It was often easiest to arrive at that thought on first down. Last year the Vols attempted only 95 passes on first down, 119th nationally. Most of what’s behind them are service academies, Georgia Tech, and other option teams. Unlike some of those teams, the Vols played from behind for significant minutes against half of their schedule.

Running on first down could still bear fruit: Tennessee averaged 4.46 yards per carry on 1st-and-10, up from the 3.70 yards they averaged per carry overall. We’ll talk more about this when we get to what the Vols did on 3rd-and-1 in this series. But Tennessee’s 219 first down carries gave them a run/pass ratio of 69.7% on first down.

What kind of difference will Jim Chaney make? One of his greatest strengths is adapting the offense to the talent around him. With Tyler Bray in 2012, the Vols ran the ball just 55.8% of the time on first down. With Nick Chubb and Sony Michel in 2017, Georgia ran the ball a whopping 77.3% of the time on first down. The 2017 leaderboard of first down rushing attempts: Georgia, Air Force, Army, Navy.

In some ways we’ll just need to see it before saying how exactly the Vols will/should go faster in 2019. If Pruitt was, in fact, trying to protect his defense last fall, will it need the same protection this year with an entirely new defensive line? If the offense can excel with plenty of returning pieces and Chaney’s leadership, will the Vols intentionally engage in faster play and more points? There’s no guarantee the one will lead to the other: last year Tennessee’s most efficient day at the office came against Kentucky, where the Vols averaged 6.87 yards per play in just 60 snaps. But the season highs (79 plays vs Florida) and lows (46 at Georgia) produced the two least efficient days against power conference foes: 4.61 yards against the Gators, 4.54 against the Dawgs.

The Vols need to go a little faster with a little more balance on first down. How much more of each will represent their best football in 2019? Stay tuned.

The weight of Tennessee’s offensive line from 2017-2019

If you’ve been following along the last couple of weeks, you know that we’ve been looking closely at the line of scrimmage, particularly from a size perspective. Two weeks ago, we spent most of our time trying to determine if Tennessee had the right size guys along the defensive front, and Wednesday we looked at offensive line continuity. Today, we’ll look at the size of Tennessee’s offensive line.

The cumulative weight of the Vols’ offensive line in 2017

Because of the aforementioned continuity problems, identifying Tennessee’s “starting lineup for the 2017 season” is problematic. As noted in that post, there were 11 different starters at the five positions that year, and four of the five positions were manned by three different starters during the course of the season. The last one wasn’t better, but worse, with six different guys showing up in the start chart at left guard that fall.

With all of that in mind, here’s what we came up with as the 2017 offensive line starters and their weights:

That looks like a pretty hefty offensive line, especially when Kendrick was in at right tackle. How did it compare to last fall?

The cumulative weight of the Vols’ offensive line in 2018

There was better continuity last fall, but the heft took a hit, primarily at the guard positions:

With Jahmir Johnson and Nathan Niehaus both well under 300 pounds, it looks like size could have been a fairly significant factor in the lack of improvement along the line in Pruitt’s first season.

The projected cumulative weight of the Vols’ offensive line in 2019

The good news is that the line is almost certain to get bigger again this fall and, if things play out the right way, it could get A LOT bigger.

Here’s our best guess at the starting lineup for 2019:

First things first: Everybody there is over 300 pounds, so woo for that.

That lineup is based on several assumptions, though. The first is that Brandon Kennedy will re-win the starting position at center and that Johnson — who started 11 games at the position last year — will slide over to guard. That displaces Jahmir Johnson, who started 11 games at left guard in 2018, but I’m moving him out because he’s currently listed at only 270 pounds on the official roster. He may be good, and he may be experienced, but if he’s only 270, I don’t think he makes the cut on a line with more options this year. 247Sports says that Johnson is now up to 297 pounds, but all of the official information is showing that he’s actually lost weight from last season, not gained it. If he is approaching 300, though, then I think he stays in the mix with several other guys.

Other assumptions are (1) that Wanya Morris does indeed win the job at left tackle, for which he was obviously being groomed this spring, (2) that Trey Smith’s health issues will keep him off the field, which is a real shame, and (3) that Darnell Wright not enrolling early means he won’t be able to displace some of the guys who not only got experience last year but also gained weight this offseason.

But now let’s see what happens if we make some different assumptions:

If Smith is able to play, he’ll likely start, and if Wright lives up to his billing and can get out of the gate quickly, he may be able to relegate several of last year’s starters to the two-deep. If both of those things happen, Tennessee has a 1,579-pound offensive line staffed by big dudes from end to end.

Is that good?

But how does a 1,535-pound (or a 1,579-pound) line compare to Tennessee’s main rivals? We’ll look at that next.

Making Progress: Forcing Turnovers

Last summer we looked at five ways Tennessee could show the most improvement in 2018. As was the case with much of last season, progress was present but not in a hurry: Tennessee improved its third down conversation rate from 30.67% to 38.22%, but the other four categories still have plenty of room to grow.

This summer we’re diving deeper into the places Tennessee has the most room for improvement in 2019 with our Making Progress series, starting today with getting the ball back.

Rocket Science, etc.

How many times did Tennessee force more than one turnover last season? One was ETSU. The other two? You guessed it: Auburn and Kentucky. In the other nine games, the Vols forced a single turnover six times, and had the goose egg thrice (UTEP, Georgia, Vanderbilt).

It wasn’t just the volume, but the timing of turnovers in Tennessee’s win at Auburn:

  • Auburn leading 10-3 2Q, Bryce Thompson INT at the UT 41, leads to UT touchdown.
  • Game tied 10-10 2Q, Jonathan Kongbo trick play INT from the UT 36
  • Vols leading 20-17 3Q, Sack-Fumble-TD

The Vols built their 24-7 lead over Kentucky with no assistance, then watched the Wildcats give it away three times in the final 10 minutes, twice inside the Tennessee 35, to prevent any idea of a comeback.

In a sense, it was the opposite problem from 2017. The Vols used a pair of turnovers to get the Georgia Tech game to overtime, but couldn’t beat the Gators despite three turnovers and lost at Kentucky despite a +4 margin. The offense failed to be opportunistic in 2017, then opportunity knocked only twice last fall.

The result: just 15 turnovers in each of the last two seasons, 97th nationally in 2017 and 101st in 2018 (stats via SportSource Analytics). That total joins anemic defenses from 2011 (18 turnovers), 2012 (17), and a what-could-have-been unit from 2015 (19 turnovers) in Tennessee failing to break 20 turnovers five times in the last eight years.

What makes the difference here? In 2017 the Vols recovered more fumbles, picking up ten loose balls with only five interceptions. Last year the Vols almost doubled their INT output with nine, plus six fumble recoveries. Both times the Vols recovered two-thirds of the fumbles they forced, meaning these numbers could’ve been even lower.

Who are the difference makers?

Bryce Thompson had three interceptions last year, Marquill Osborne two in those final ten minutes against Kentucky. Tennessee’s other interceptions last season came from the front seven: Kongbo against Auburn, Darrin Kirkland Jr. against ETSU, Kyle Phillip’s Piesman-winning play against Alabama, and Shy Tuttle had one at South Carolina.

It’s a little thin on the secondary, but I think we all feel pretty good about Thompson, Alontae Taylor, and Trevon Flowers continuing to grow back there. A big piece of this puzzle isn’t just the right guys covering receivers, but making a difference earlier in the play.

SB Nation’s Bill Connelly likes to point out that sack rate is the most reliable statistic when it comes to projecting a team’s turnover margin: the more often you hit the quarterback, the more likely you are to produce both fumbles and bad decisions that become interceptions. Last season the Vols averaged 2.08 sacks per game, 68th nationally. Eight of those 25 sacks came from Darrell Taylor, seven against Georgia and Kentucky. Like most things, it was an improvement over 2017 (22 sacks), but fell behind what the Vols accomplished in the Derek Barnett era (30 sacks in 2015 and 2016, 35 when Barnett and Curt Maggitt played together in 2014).

Something else to consider here: opposing quarterbacks completed 63% of their passes against Tennessee last year, 103rd nationally for the Vol defense. Some of it was who the Vols faced:

QBCmpAttPctYdsYPA
Will Grier253473.542912.6
Jake Fromm162272.71878.4
Tua Tagovailoa192965.530610.6
Drew Lock213070.02578.6

…but then Kyle Shurmur went 31-of-35 (88.6%) for 367 yards and 10.5 per. No other team completed more than 80% of their passes against the Vols this decade; Shurmur flirted with 90%.

So, as is the point with this series, lots of room to grow. For Tennessee to turn progress into progress! in 2019, they will almost certainly need more turnovers. Some of it is luck, some of it maturation in the secondary. But Tennessee also has to be better at disrupting the passer, and giving itself more of a chance to make a play.

Offensive line continuity

Last week, we spent some time looking closely at the importance of size at certain defensive positions. We found that bigger is better along the defensive front and that Tennessee was not only getting bigger, the Vols’ defensive front is likely going to be just as big as Alabama’s and Georgia’s this fall.

All of that made me want to take a closer look at the other side of the line of scrimmage as well. After all, you would think that if bigger is better in the defensive trenches then size would also be important for the guys going up against them.

As I started to gather the information, though, I got sidetracked by noticing something else that may be of equal importance, namely continuity at the offensive line positions. And man, have the Vols had trouble with that.

Offensive line continuity in 2017

The 2017 season was particularly terrible from a continuity perspective. Only two offensive linemen started double-digit games. Trey Smith started all 12, and Jashon Robertson started 10. Drew Richmond — who started 7 games — was the only other player to start more than half the time.

The rest was basically a non-profit board committee. Coleman Thomas started 5, and Brett Kendrick, Ryan Johnson, and Devante Brooks all started 4. Jack Jones and Marcus Tatum each started 3, Riley Locklear started 2, and Venzell Boulware started in one game. That’s 11 different starters at only five offensive line positions.

It’s also ugly when you look at it from a positional perspective. The most stable position was right guard, at which Smith started 8 games. But even that spot was occupied by two other guys for the other four games. Ryan Johnson and Locklear each got the nod twice.

The story is essentially the same at left tackle. Richmond started there for 7 games, but the other five games had Smith there three times and Kendrick there twice.

It just gets worse from there. Here are the starters at center: Robertson (6), Thomas (5), Ryan Johnson (1). At right tackle: Kendrick (5), Brooks (4), Tatum (3).

If you’re keeping count, that’s three different starters at each of the right tackle, right guard, center, and left tackle positions.

But left guard outdid them all. It was a revolving door on Red Bull with six different guys showing up there as starters during the season.

Offensive line continuity in 2018

Things did get better from a continuity perspective in 2018. Three players started double-digit games: Drew Richmond (12), Jahmir Johnson (11), and Ryan Johnson (11). Three more — Trey Smith (7), Jerome Carvin (6), and Nathan Niehaus (6) — started more than half of the games, and Marcus Tatum started five times. Brandon Kennedy started the first game before being lost for the season. Where the Vols rotated in 11 different starters in 2017, they used only eight in 2018.

There was a lot less moving around from position to position last fall as well. Richmond started all 12 games at right tackle, and Johnson & Johnson both started at their respective positions of left guard and center for 11 of 12 games.

Even the other two positions were relatively stable despite having to be manned by more than one guy. Smith started 7 games at left tackle, but when he went out, Tatum took over for the other five. And at right guard, 11 games were handled by only two guys — Niehaus and Carvin. That was the only position occupied by more than two starters over the course of the season, and the third guy filled in for only one game.

Lost in Translation

Admittedly, the improved continuity in 2018 over 2017 didn’t really do much to improve the offense overall last fall. The team was last in the SEC and near the bottom nationally in total offense both seasons. The only real improvement was in Sacks Allowed, which went from 12th in the SEC and 113th nationally in 2017 to 8th in the SEC and 47th nationally. Passing Offense also improved a bit. But most everything else was still a certifiable mess.

This is likely due to the fact that offensive line continuity is only one of many factors impacting offensive line play and that line play is only one of many factors in overall offensive performance. We’ll take a look at some of those other factors in subsequent posts.

Momentum starter? JUCO DB Art Green commits to the Vols

We noted earlier today that JUCO DB Art Green seemed to be leaning to Tennessee coming off his weekend unofficial visit to Knoxville, and sure enough just hours later Green indeed committed to the Vols. 

https://twitter.com/A_JR20/status/1127996947904835584

Green is Tennessee’s 7th commitment in the 2020 and its second Junior College early enrollee (along with 247’s #1 overall JUCO DL Jordan Davis), giving Coach Jeremy Pruitt and DC Derrick Ansley two instant impact players on the defensive side of the ball just two weeks into May.  At 6’2 and 200lbs, Green has the kind of size that Pruitt covets at the CB position, and with 10.7 100m speed he’s got the kind of overall dimensions of an elite prospect in the secondary. 

After adding seven CBs in the last two classes, including two elite young prospects in rising sophomores Bryce Thompson and Alontae Taylor, Pruitt and his staff have certainly upgraded that particular position quickly.  What the addition of Green does is allow Tennessee – who may look to bolster other positions numbers-wise in this class – to focus on just a handful of other elite DBs knowing they’ve got him in the fold.

The Vols will absolutely have to fight to keep Green, as he’s got spring offers from the likes of Georgia, Florida and Texas A&M among many others.  However, with an official visit still available and a relatively short window for visits in the fall due to his JUCO schedule and plan to sign in December, Tennessee is in as strong of a position as one could ask.

Whether Green’s commitment is the start of a roll for Tennessee remains to be seen, as he’s not one of the tied in local/instate prospects (namely: Cade Mays, Tyler Baron, Keshawn Lawrence, and Jay Hardy) for whom the Vols are in good shape but appear to be playing the waiting game a bit.  However, what it absolutely is is a shot in the arm for the Vols recruiting efforts and once again a cornerstone player in the defensive secondary for 2020.

Mid-May Recruiting Musings

Tennessee RB commitment Ebony Jackson was offered by Alabama over the weekend, making those who felt like the Vols staff got in early on the Atlanta-area star look prescient.  The 6’2, 210 pound track star has both the big body Tennessee covets at the position but also the game-breaking ability due to his elite speed, and while he seems like a firm commitment at the moment –his pledge wasn’t out of the blue as Tennessee had been recruiting him for a while before he committed while on a visit to Knoxville – an offer from the Tide will likely give him something to think about.  What the Bama offer does is validate to a degree the Vols’ evaluation of Jackson, as the Tide has not only been at the top of college football for some time but has been churning out NFL RBs with that size profile for years

One of Tennessee’s top targets, RB/LB Trenton Simpson, named a Top 5 of North Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Auburn and Miami.  Instate UNC has been the perceived frontrunner for a while but UGA seems to be surging and has an OV set up for June 14th, two weeks after he visits Auburn officially for their annual Big Cat Weekend.  Simpson was named the “Alpha Dog” of The Opening regional in his hometown of Charlotte and is fast becoming one of the most coveted prospects in the country.  The Vols have work to do here to overtake the Heels and Dawgs – the good news is that, having already hosted him for junior day in February, Tennessee is in line to get him back to campus between those two other SEC officials.  It will be imperative that they make that visit happen

At the same camp in Charlotte, Tennessee QB commitment Harrison Bailey continued his strong spring by earning an invitation to Nike’s Elite 11 Finals in late June while at the same time winning QB MVP over some of the other top QBs in the classes of 2020 and 2021.  Bailey has been a dogged peer recruiter as the face of Tennessee’s class and him being more and more of a high profile prospect can only help that cause

Marshall grad transfer OL Alex Locklear, the brother of current Vol OL Riley Locklear, recently committed to Utah after a local West Virginia newspaper reported that he was likely headed to Knoxville.  Locklear doesn’t profile as someone good enough for the Vols to use an initial counter on for a one-year rental; however, he’s a solid lineman and at worst gives the Utes added depth and at best for them earns a starting spot.  While this may seem non-Vol related, the Utes faceoff against instate rival BYU the week before the Cougars travel to Knoxville in what looks to be a swing game of sorts for the Vols in the early season.

Tennessee got some tough news a few weeks ago when top WR target Rakim Jarrett committed to LSU on an official visit to Baton Rouge.  The Vols got more bad news when top OL target Tate Ratledge committed to UGA on Monday, and could see another top target commit elsewhere if DL Justin Rogers commits to Kentucky the week after.  Neither Jarrett nor Rogers appear likely to completely shut things down this early in their respective recruitments, however, and the Vols still have an official visit with Jarrett available, so expect Tennessee to continue to recruit both regardless of what Rogers announces

JUCO DB Art Green officially visited over this past weekend and came away all but naming Tennessee his leader.  Green, who got one of his first bigtime offers from the Vols in February, is a 6’2, 200+ lb CB who is an early enrollee from Hutchinson C.C.  Since his Tennessee offer he’s since gotten scholarships from the likes of UGA, UF, and Texas A&M, showing what kind of prospect that Pruitt and Co. once again got in early on.  Were Tennessee to land Green’s pledge it would be the 2nd high-level JUCO EE on the 2020 commitment list along with DL Jordan Davis, setting the Vols up with a pair of instant impact players around which to build the defensive class and give Tennessee some much-needed momentum headed into the summer

Gameday on Rocky Top 2019 preseason magazine now available

Gameday on Rocky Top 2019 hits the newsstands all over the state of Tennessee (and select locations in neighboring states) sometime late next week, but as a reader of this website, you can get it right now at a discount and with free shipping to boot. Use code GRT2019 for $2 off.

Gameday on Rocky Top 2019 Football Preview Magazine

$12.99
Shop now

The vast majority of these are going to end up on the newsstands, but we’ve reserved a few hundred copies for direct sales, and they arrived here yesterday. You can get them directly from us earlier and at a discount, and you don’t even have to leave your house.

As always, our Gameday magazine is More of Your Favorite Team and No Ads. Go ahead and count the pages and compare it to the others on the newsstands. Most preseason publications try to cover every team, which is cool and all, but it means you’re paying for content you’re probably not even reading. We narrow our focus and go deeper on the teams you care most about and carefully select the articles so we’re not printing stuff you’re probably going to ignore. In Gameday on Rocky Top, we have 48 pages of content devoted exclusively to the 2019 Tennessee Volunteers, and the other 64 pages focus on the Vols’ 2019 opponents, along with their competition in the SEC and the national Top 25. This narrower focus means you’re not paying for pages you’re not reading. Our publication is still currently ad-free as well, meaning you’re also not paying for content you’re trying to ignore. 🙂

The newsstand price is $12.99, but while supplies last you can get $2 off and free shipping if you get it directly from us. To get the discount, use the following coupon code at checkout:

COUPON CODE: GRT2019

As always, we had an awesome time putting this together for you this year. The conversation we have about the cover every year is one of my favorite discussions each and every time. As you can see, we settled on an image of Guarantano because it’s an awesome picture from our photographer Bryan Lynn and LC Action Photos and because Guarantano’s the point man in the Search for the Tipping Point, a phrase that we consider the theme of the season. If you’re not already familiar with Malcolm Gladwell’s book The Tipping Point, go Google it for the context. The short explanation as it applies to Rocky Top this year is this: Pruitt has made a lot positive changes this offseason. He’s hired Chaney, Ansley, and Martin. He’s infused the offensive line with some incredible talent (albeit young). He’s avoided a potential catastrophe along the defensive line of scrimmage, and he’s now poised to reap the benefits of moving immediately to the 3-4 and throwing some young guys into the fire early last year. The potential has been there, but it’s been trapped in a bottleneck, impeded by problems that limited the effectiveness of everything else. And with just a few more positive changes in those areas this offseason, we’re hoping to see a Tipping Point, the point at which everything finally clicks.

Go Vols.

Picking the Tennessee Basketball All-Decade Team

Ten years ago at Rocky Top Talk, we asked you to pick your all-decade team for Tennessee Basketball. Chris Lofton was an automatic qualifier, and we went from there with these nominees:

  • Point Guard: Tony Harris, C.J. Watson
  • Perimeter: Vincent Yarbrough, Scooter McFadgon, JaJuan Smith
  • Post: Isaiah Victor, Marcus Haislip, Ron Slay, Dane Bradshaw, Tyler Smith
  • Center: C.J. Black, Brandon Crump, Wayne Chism

From 2000-09, Yarbrough and Haislip were the only Vols selected in the NBA Draft; the former played one year with Denver, the latter two seasons coming off the bench in Milwaukee before brief stints with the Pacers and later the Spurs. C.J. Watson was undrafted, but earned a 10-year career as a backup point guard, including a pair of lengthy playoff runs with the Bulls in 2011 and the Pacers in 2014.

So the biggest difference you’ll find in the all-decade conversation this time around is the NBA: four players drafted so far this decade, multiple possibilities to join them next month, and two guys with an outside chance to become Tennessee’s first NBA All-Star since Allan Houston.

2010-19 catches Bruce Pearl’s deepest tournament run, a Cuonzo Martin team with three NBA draft picks, and the Rick Barnes resurgence. It’s been a wild and enjoyable decade, and as such the candidates for an all-decade team make for an even more difficult conversation this time around. In chronological order:

PGG/FG/FFF/C
B. MazeS. HopsonJ.P. PrinceT. HarrisW. Chism
T. GoldenJ. McRaeJ. RichardsonJ. MaymonJ. Stokes
J. BoneK. PunterA. SchofieldG. WilliamsK. Alexander

As was the case with Chris Lofton in the last decade, you feel like Grant Williams should be an automatic qualifier. But if you’re trying to construct an actual basketball lineup, and you consider the NBA ascent of Tobias Harris and Josh Richardson…can you put all three of those guys in your lineup with a point guard and a center? Can you go small with Williams at the five?

(It’s a hypothetical list, you can do whatever you want, but I’m just saying the choices are harder this time around…which was/is a good thing for Tennessee Basketball.)

A couple of observations:

This exercise will give you a greater appreciation for Jordan Bone. Bobby Maze averaged 9.4 points with a 3.2/1.4 assist/turnover ratio in 2010, and spent most of the decade widely regarded as Tennessee’s best point guard since C.J. Watson. If you wanted your point guard to score, that was Trae Golden: 13.3 points and a 38.8% three point shooter in 2012. And then Bone the last two years had the best of both worlds: 13.5 points last season with a 5.8/2.0 assist/turnover ratio, 38% from the arc in 2018, 35.5% in 2019.

No one took a higher percentage of shots in a Tennessee offense this decade than Scotty Hopson in 2011 (31.3%) and Jordan McRae in 2014 (31.4%). Hopson averaged 17.0 per game in 2011 with 37.6% from the arc. McRae averaged 18.7 in 2014 with 35.1% from the arc, and finished ninth in KenPom’s Player of the Year race that season, tying Grant Williams this season for the best finish for any Tennessee player. Then Kevin Punter put up the highest per game total of the decade in Rick Barnes’ first season: 22.2 points on 36.9% from the arc.

Man, who plays the three? If you allow for the NBA, it has to be Richardson, who led the Heat in scoring this season. If I asked you at any point during Richardson’s Tennessee career, even in the Donnie Tyndall season, if you thought he would lead an NBA team in scoring, what would your response have been? At Tennessee he made the best year-over-year growth of any four-year player I can ever remember: two points per game as a freshman to eight to ten on a Sweet 16 team as a junior, where he was probably the fourth option. Then he got himself to the pros with 16 points per game as a senior.

But how do you not put Schofield on your team? His individual performance against #1 Gonzaga is probably the best of the decade. I’m sure there’s some recency bias, but 16.5 points on 41.8% from the arc plus 6.1 rebounds per game? Did you know that percentage from the arc is the best for any Tennessee player this decade?

Or maybe if you’re trying to field the best basketball lineup, you sneak J.P. Prince in there and let him fill up the stat sheet while everyone else is focused on the other guys.

It’s the same conversation at the forward spot: if you value the NBA, you have to go with Tobias Harris right now. His one season in Knoxville saw 15.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game in an offense where he and Scotty Hopson never really complemented each other well. Harris was great beyond his years in grabbing a rebound and going the length of the floor, getting around contact, and getting a bucket. But Grant Williams needs no introduction in this conversation. If you want to put them both on the floor at the same time, fine by me, but again, does it make basketball sense to play them and Richardson together?

If you were just picking your favorite player of the decade…has enough happened the last two years to move you off Wayne Chism? Maybe Schofield?

Honorable Mentions: If you want Brian Williams instead of Kyle Alexander as your third center nominee, it won’t hurt my feelings; I went Alexander because he’s second all-time in blocked shots at UT. Robert Hubbs, one of the players we probably spent the most word count on during his career, gets edged out in both of the guard/forward spots. And Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden could both work their way into a different version of this conversation if we remember them even more fondly with a big season in 2019-20.

If we let these guys step out of the roles they played at Tennessee, a lineup of Bone, JRich, Grant, Tobias, and Chism both captures the decade well and wins a bunch of games. Using the above categories to put them in the roles they played at UT, I think I’d go Bone, McRae, Admiral, Grant, and Chism, with the eventual NBA studs coming off the bench.

Who ya got?

The right size guys: Vols’ defensive front as big as Alabama’s, Georgia’s

Last week, we showed why your intuition that bigger was better along the defensive front was indeed true, and then gave you some good news, namely that Tennessee’s defensive front was getting bigger under Jeremy Pruitt.

We also know, though, that making progress isn’t the same as achieving your goals. After all, you can improve dramatically and still finish in last place. You could double the size of my eight-year-old daughter, but she’s still not going to be very effective at trying to slow down D’Andre Swift.

So, where do the Vols stand relative to the competition when it comes to the cumulative size of its defensive front? Is it the size it actually needs to be, or does it still have a ways to go?

More good news: Tennessee’s projected starting defensive front seven is now the size it needs to be.

2019 defensive front weights for Tennessee and its SEC opponents

Below is a list of the cumulative weight of Tennessee’s projected starting defensive front seven for 2019, along with those of its 2019 SEC opponents. Beware, these are based on projected starting lineups, and there’s necessarily a lot of guesswork involved in making such projections. But I’ve found that swapping one or two guys out for each other generally doesn’t produce a dramatic difference in the cumulative weight of the entire front seven. Unless you’re Kentucky and you have a whale in the middle, in which case it matters a lot. And in any event, informed guessing is all we have at this point.

Here’s the list:

Tennessee in the top tier

The cumulative weight of Tennessee’s projected starting front seven on defense for 2019 is essentially identical to that of both Alabama and Georgia. There’s a signifcant gap between those three teams and the rest of the teams on the list, as the Big Three are all around 1,890 pounds, and the next tier — Kentucky and Missouri — are between 1,840 and 1,854. As alluded to above, Kentucky’s is impacted greatly by monstrous 361-pound Quinton Bohanna. If you substitute a normally-large nose tackle for him, the team’s cumulative weight drops all the way down to around 1,800 pounds. That is one big dude.

The next tier includes Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt, which range from 1,810 to 1,815 pounds. The Gators are in their own category, down at 1,785 pounds, apparently preferring speed over heft at this point.

The Vols’ projected lineup

As we said last week, we’re basing Tennessee’s number here on a projected starting lineup that looks like this:

In my mind, that’s the most reasonable projection, but it does include some assumptions, including that Aubrey Solomon’s request for immediate eligibility is approved and that both he and No. 1 JUCO DT Williams earn the starting spots with Gooden. If that’s all true, then Tennessee has three 300-pounders starting on the defensive line of scrimmage. Not even Alabama has that. Georgia is the only other team on this list with three projected starters over the 300-pound threshold.

Mission accomplished in short order

In 2017, before Pruitt arrived, the front seven weighed in at 1,817 pounds, which would put them in the third tier on the above list with Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt. In Pruitt’s Year 1, they were 1,866 pounds, which would put them at the top of the second tier with Kentucky and Missouri but still far from the top.

But now, in Pruitt’s Year 2, the cumulative weight of his projected starting defensive front seven looks no different than that of Alabama and Georgia.

To be sure, there’s a lot more to effective play along the defensive front than size, and the guys still need to develop all of the requisite techniques and skills needed to become an elite defensive front.

But if there are boxes to be checked on the way to that goal, consider this one checked. Tennessee’s defensive front now has the right size guys.