Early Bowl Projections Expect Vols to Make Reasonable Progress

Magazines are hitting shelves – get ours here! – and with them an early round of bowl projections for Tennessee. The good news: I haven’t seen the Vols projected to come up empty in the postseason yet, nor have I seen Tennessee projected to spend December in Birmingham or Shreveport.

It’s all an educated guessing game at this point; a couple of outlets have the Vols projected to the Belk (247) and Gator (Sporting News) Bowls. But these two and their SEC group of six counterparts – the Outback, Music City, Liberty, and Texas bowls – are reasonable destinations for Tennessee this fall. Any bowl appearance would be progress by definition, but an expectation for the Vols to get back in this group of six tier comes with a ceiling at its top in Tampa, or just beyond it in Orlando.

The first question to ask when making these projections is, “How many SEC teams do you think will make the College Football Playoff & New Year’s Six?” In the first five years of the playoff, the SEC put 14 teams in those two tiers, an average of 2.8 per year. With the semifinals in Atlanta and Tempe this year, the Sugar Bowl will automatically take the highest-rated SEC team not in the playoffs; that means at least two from this conference off the board if you expect Alabama to make it six-for-six in the CFP. Last season we saw a record four SEC teams come off the board before the Citrus Bowl, with the Tide in the playoff and LSU, Georgia, and Florida all in the New Year’s Six.

The Citrus Bowl picks next, then the league office works with schools and bowls to “assign” teams to the group of six games. Here’s how all of that has looked since the playoff began in 2014:

20142015201620172018
AlabamaCFPCFPCFPCFPCFP
ArkansasG6G6G6
AuburnG6OtherNY6NY6G6
FloridaOtherCitrusG6NY6
GeorgiaG6G6G6CFPNY6
KentuckyG6G6Citrus
LSUG6G6CitrusCitrusNY6
MississippiNY6NY6
Mississippi StateNY6G6OtherG6G6
MissouriCitrusG6G6
South CarolinaOtherOtherG6G6
TennesseeG6G6G6
Texas A&MG6G6G6G6G6
VanderbiltOtherG6

If the SEC gets three teams in the CFP and New Year’s Six, and the fourth team goes to the Citrus Bowl, the Vols or anyone else would just need to be considered one of the ten best teams in the league to make a group of six bowl. Seeing Tennessee routinely projected in this group suggests an expectation the Vols won’t just sneak in at 6-6, but fall in line with their Vegas projection of 7-5.

We wrote on the value of 7-5 a few weeks ago, but the bowl game adds another layer of context. If the Vols hit their Vegas number and win the bowl game, an 8-5 finish would be the third best season of the last 12 years:

  • 9-4: Butch Years 3 & 4
  • 8-5:
  • 7-6: Kiffin, Butch Year 2
  • 6-7: Dooley Year 1
  • 5-7: Fulmer Final Year, Dooley Years 2 & 3, Butch Year 1, Pruitt Year 1
  • 4-8: Butch Year 5

The relative value of 7-5 would depend on which seven and which five, but should easily slide the Vols into a group of six bowl for a shot at a nice aftertaste. That continues to look like a reasonable expectation for Tennessee this fall.

Tennessee Recruiting Positional Update: Tight Ends

Despite signing two high-level Tight Ends in the 2019 class in Jackson Lowe and Sean Brown, there is still both a lack of depth as well as the kind size that Pruitt prefers on the current roster.  Further, 2019 starter Dominick Wood-Anderson is heading into his last year of eligibility.  Only Lowe, Brown, redshirt freshman Jacob Warren, redshirt Junior Austin Pope and redshirt Sophomore James Brown are projected to the 2020 roster, and they all combine for 3 career catches, all by Pope, while only the freshman (giving Warren the benefit of the doubt due to his large frame and Strength & Conditioning Coach Craig Fitzgerald’s track record) truly have the size Tennessee wants at the position.

With Jim Chaney’s history of success using TEs as well as likely instant playing time available for a bigtime recruit(s), there’s not just a real need at the position for the Vols going forward but also a compelling sales pitch available.  However, while that is clearly the case, there only appear to be two actual targets on the board right now.  Both of them – 5-stars Arik Gilbert and Darnell Washington ae obviously bigtime, and with that comes the kind of competition that will make it very difficult to land either of them.  Gilbert, while UT QB commitment Harrison Bailey’s high school teammate and a frequent visitor to Knoxville, is considered a heavy UGA lean (with Alabama and Clemson in there, too), while Washington is being targeted by the likes of Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State among others.  Washington will take his OVs during the season and attend games, with Alabama (vs. LSU), Georgia (vs Notre Dame), Miami right now guaranteed three of them and the Vols fighting Florida, Auburn and likely others for his final two visits. 

Given the small number of current targets, as well as the kind of schools Tennessee is recruiting against for them, don’t be surprised to see Tennessee widen its net at the position throughout the cycle.  The Vols will hope to add targets both during the upcoming summer evaluation and camp periods as well as during the season, likely including the Junior College ranks.  One thing the Vol staff could consider, depending on how especially Lowe, Brown, and Warren develop as well as needs and numbers at other positions, is the fact that there are two stud instate Tight Ends in the class of 2021.  Hudson Wolfe, who hails from a Tennessee family in Savannah, Tennessee (the same high school as current Vol Latrell Bumphus) has already been to campus twice this year including for the Orange & White game and projects as a bigtime player, while midstate native Jake Briningstool is already ranked as a 4-star by 247.  Should the Vols like how the current young TEs on the roster are developing and feel like they have a really strong shot at one or both of Wolfe/Briningstool they might elect to not “reach” for a TE in this class just to have one and instead focus their resources elsewhere with confidence in the future at the position.

Tennessee Recruiting Positional Update: Wide Receivers

With four senior Wide Receivers at or near the top of Tennessee’s 2019 depth chart and little in the way of proven depth behind them, recruiting at the position for the 2020 class is of the utmost urgency.  Looking out to 2020, the Vols currently project to have only seven WRs on the roster (eight if you count Deangelo Gibbs, who from this vantage point seems best suited at the STAR position on defense due to his prior experience there and the greater chance he can have a large impact).  Of those 7-8, only Josh Palmer has proven himself to be a consistent SEC producer, and three of them are redshirt or true freshmen.   Further, if Tennessee wants to take the next step towards truly contending for SEC championships than it can’t just be about quantity (which is a clear need in an of itself) but also quality – the Vols need gamebreakers, plural, at the position, and they need them now. 

The good news for Tennessee is that its new position coach, Tee Martin, is an elite recruiter with deep ties to the South, and hoping to have kind of impact we forecasted back when he was hired. Martin has been consistently mentioned with elite WR prospects since his hiring – especially in Alabama and Georgia as ten of the twelve prospects discussed below hail from one of those two states – and has the Vols in the mix with multiple high level WRs.  However, after having missed on a couple of high level targets (more below) it’s imperative that the Vols close the deal on a few of them instead of coming in second.

Tennessee does already has a commitment from 3-star Jimmy Calloway who picked the Vols over Oregon and others – he’s most recently been offered by South Carolina in mid-May.  Calloway is an explosive athlete and track star who can play on either side of the ball and is very comfortable with the ball in his hands.  He’s shined at a couple of spring 7-on-7 events showing off great route running and dynamic playmaking ability and seems destined for more high-level offers.  He’s also got some high-end CB attributes and could end up getting a look there in college as well.  The bet here is that Tennessee will look smart having snagged Calloway’s early commitment but will end up having to fight off numerous other power programs.

4-star Zevian Capers, who is technically committed to Arkansas but taking visits, visited Tennessee in early April and has the Vols high on his list.  The large-framed but speedy pass-catcher took an official visit to South Carolina in late April and Tennessee hopes to get him back on campus again soon.  Capers showed out at the Atlanta Opening event, measuring in at 6’4 and close to 200 lbs while showing off great route running, speed, change of direction and sure hands.  Along with the Razorbacks and Gamecocks, he also has offers from Florida and actually received a Clemson offer last March as well.  While the Vols need at least 4 WRs in this class, Capers would make a great pairing with Calloway in terms of size and positional combinations. 

After two visits in a month, Tennessee is the stated leader for 4-star Kris Abrams-Draine, a 4-star former LSU commitment.  From South Alabama like Martin , he’s a smaller WR at 6’0 and around 170 pounds, but with offers from Oregon, Florida, and LSU among others, has the perfect size/quickness combination for the slot.  Having already been committed before it wouldn’t be a surprise to see “KAD” take his time before committing again, but as of now the Vols have placed themselves in a very strong position.

4-star EJ Williams took his official visit to Knoxville for the Orange & White Game after visiting previously in March and has the Vols in an unofficial top 6 along with Florida, Florida State, Alabama, Auburn, and Clemson.  Things have been relatively quiet for the Alabama native, which might not be a great sign for Tennessee considering he’s used that official visit already.  His only other OV is set for instate Auburn in late June, and took an unofficial visit to Gainesville last weekend.  Hailing from the same high school as Clemson freshman sensation Justyn Ross, Williams has the Tigers and Alabama on top at the moment.  Clearly this is going to be a tough battle for Tee Martin and the Vols but if the recruitment extends further into the season Tennessee certainly has enough traction to stay in the mix for his planned August 24th announcement.

Former LSU commitment and Memphis native Darrin Turner is another target on the radar, although despite his 4-star ranking he seems like a player the Vols would like to see in camp. His physical profile compares to 2019 Arkansas signee Trey Knox, a similarly big-bodied instate player who the Vols ultimately passed on. If Turner a) gets to campus and b) shows not just overall ability but high-end speed, the Vols could absolutely turn up the heat on him.

The Vols are also very much in the mix for 4-stars Mushin Muhammad (who visited in early April but has since visited Texas A&M twice) and are still working on 4-star Alabama commitment Dazalin Worsham who’s been on campus three times himself, including as recently as March.  4-star Auburn commitment Kobe Hudson decided to visit Knoxville for Tennessee’s spring game over the Tigers, suggesting that the door is at least cracked for the Vols.  Tennessee also offered 4-star Joshua Downs, a UNC commitment who is 7-on-7 teammates with Harrison Bailey and hails from the same Atlanta-area high school as 2019 Vol signee Warren Burrell.  Then there is Memphis native and former Oklahoma signee Kundarrius Taylor, Junior College teammate of Vol commit Jordan Davis who Tennessee has offered.  4-star do-it-all athlete Demarcus Beckwith (cousin of Lamonte Turner) also has the Vols high on his list after visiting in March.  Finally, Georgia natives Robert Lewis and Kobe Hudson (teammate of Harrison Bailey) have Vol offers and have both been to campus.

The Vols appeared to be in very strong shape with 5-star DC-native Rakim Jarrett, who took two unofficial visits to campus in March.  However, he committed to LSU while on an OV in Baton Rouge in late April.  Jarrett profiles as an instant 2020 starter in the mold of recent Alabama and Clemson WRs and would be one of the jewels of this class, so expect the Vol staff to continue to work to get him back for an official visit at some point before signing day.  Similarly, the Vols were right there for Thaiu Jones-Bell (who visited for the Orange & White Game) but he recently committed to Alabama.

The board will shake itself out as the above targets will (hopefully) make their way back to Knoxville and additional offers could emerge from camp performances.  Tennessee has done a nice job getting involved with multiple WRs the caliber of which it needs to take the next step offensively – and frankly most if not all of the existing WRs on the board have better recruiting pedigrees than all of the signees in the last two classes except Ramel Keyton – but as stated above the next and most important step is landing them.

Tennessee’s offensive line growing, but still needs more

A couple of weeks ago, we started looking at the size of the defensive front seven, ultimately finding that Tennessee’s projected starting lineup should be in the upper tier with Alabama and Georgia this fall. But what about the other side of the ball? Is Tennessee’s offensive line big enough to hold its own against monster-sized defensive fronts?

The benchline for the cumulative weight of the Vols’ offensive line starters was 1,532 pounds in 2017. It dipped to 1,505 in 2018, but is projected to be back around 1,535 this fall. If everything falls right, it could be 1,579.

But how does that compare to Tennessee’s SEC opponents this fall? Unfortunately, not great. Here’s the info:

Even though Tennessee’s projected starting lineup includes all five guys weighing in at over 300 pounds, it still comes in last on that list. Even if you make the most favorable assumptions, the Vols’ are still only sixth on that list at 1,579 pounds.

There are basically three, maybe four, tiers here. First, Georgia is in a class by itself at a monstrous 1,643 pounds. Their lightest starter is 318, and the rest of the guys are 320, 330, 335, and 340 pounds.

Missouri, Mississippi State, and Alabama are all over 1,600 pounds. You can go and ahead include Kentucky, which comes in at 1,592, in that tier or give them their own.

And then come Vanderbilt, Florida, South Carolina, and Tennessee, all 1,550 and under.

At this time, we have no data on the correlation, if any, between cumulative weight of the offensive line and offensive profiency. But I will note that of the teams on that list, the most prolific offenses last fall were Alabama, Missouri, and Georgia.

Tennessee’s made some progress in this area, and if the guys can continue to bulk up over the summer, they could make some additional headway. But this data may be some indication that they’re still going to have a challenge when push comes to shove this fall.

Making Progress: Red Zone Defense

Here are Tennessee’s stops in the red zone last season:

  • Alabama went for it on fourth down up 58-21 with four minutes left
  • South Carolina took a knee in the red zone at the end of the game
  • Kentucky had a field goal blocked with the Vols up 24-7 with 12 minutes left
  • Vanderbilt missed a field goal leading 17-7 early in the third quarter

And that’s it.

Opponents converted 41 of 45 red zone opportunities against the Vols last year, 91.1%, and only two of those four stops came in meaningful situations. That scoring percentage ranked 120th nationally last fall. Opponents scored touchdowns 30 times in those 45 trips; a 66.7% red zone touchdown percentage ranked 90th nationally.

(stats via SportSource Analytics)

As you might expect, the Vols were bad at this in 2017 too: 50 red zone visits, only five stops. Tennessee also gave up 35 touchdowns in those visits; 70% is Tennessee’s worst red zone touchdown percentage of the decade.

But it’s also a stat the Vols haven’t excelled at in a long time. In 2015 Tennessee held teams to a 56.1% touchdown percentage, but gave up seven touchdowns in eight visits against Oklahoma and Florida, setting a tone that was hard to forget. In 2014 Tennessee allowed only 34 red zone visits, but gave up points 32 times. You have to go back to teams with Fulmer’s final recruits on them to find more success: a 45.5% touchdown percentage in 2009, 52.1% with a 79.2% scoring percentage in 2010.

A note of interest for 2019: on offense, last year Mississippi State led the SEC in red zone touchdown percentage at 69.1%; BYU was slightly better at 69.2%. Those two teams don’t strike the same extreme fears as some of Tennessee’s recent non-conference and cross-divisional opponents, but both were incredibly efficient in the red zone.

If last year was about getting out of the basement, consider the progress available if Tennessee just moves toward average football in some of these key categories. Last season the Vols moved from rankings in the 120’s to rankings in the 80’s and 90’s in many categories. The median for turnovers forced last year was 19; Tennessee forced only 15. The median for red zone scoring percentage allowed was 83%, with a 60% touchdown percentage. If the Vols can just get from 91% and 67% to those average numbers, it can make a real difference in close games.

One big question for both turnovers and stops in the red zone: who are the playmakers on defense? The Vols will need more than Darrell Taylor and their sophomore corners to make a meaningful difference here.

Uros Plavsic and what he means for 2020 recruiting and the program writ large

With the addition of 7’1 Arizona State transfer Uros Plavsic to the roster, Tennessee currently has 13 scholarship players for the 2019-2020 season.  However, with most assuming that PG Jordan Bone will choose to stay in the NBA Draft, that will leave one scholarship open.  Given that the Vols will only have five true backcourt players in Lamonte Turner, Jordan Bowden, Josiah James, Jalen Johnson, and Davonte Gaines – and Gaines is in massive need of a year with Garrett Medenwald and Tennessee’s Strength & Conditioning program, so counting on him for meaningful minutes this coming year is probably not smart.  Therefore, between the need for experienced backcourt depth and the need to keep spots open for what is looking like an all-timer class of 2020 (more on that below), adding a grad transfer makes all the sense in the world.  And although the pickings are relatively slim on the grad transfer market at this point, per Jeff Goodman’s transfer rankings the below Guards (ranked overall, including all positions by Goodman) are still available:

20) Jaevin Cumberland, Oakland 
26) Kareem South, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 
34) Ryan Woolridge, North Texas 
43) Donte Fitzpatrick-Dorsey, Tennessee State 
48) Nic Thomas, Norfolk State

It does seem likely that Barnes will wait to make any moves until Bone officially decides, so it could be a week or so before we start to hear about any movement in this regard.  But there has been no discussion about adding a high school PG since Jalen Cone reclassified and decided to sign with Virginia Tech, so as of now it appears to be a grad transfer or bust for the (likely) 13th scholarship.

When it comes to the aforementioned class of 2020, after adding both fast-rising 2019 signee Oliver Robinson-Nkamhoua and Plavsic to go with the three fall signees, Coach Barnes and the Vols currently have three total spots for the class.  One of those is held by 5-star F Corey Walker, who recently transferred from his Florida high school to Hargrave Military Academy (where Gaines just spent a prep year).  Walker is a bigtime talent and projects as an instant impact player in both the low post and on the wing and will give Tennessee a 5-star signee in back to back classes for the first time ever.  The Vols are also the presumed front-runner for borderline 5-star Wing Keon Johnson who hails from Bell Buckle, TN and will announce his commitment on August 6th to either Tennessee, Virginia, or Ohio State.  If Barnes is able to land Johnson, that will not only give the Vols two elite players in the class but also leave just one spot remaining (assuming no future roster movement, which is all we can do at the moment).  With the Vols in very good shape for multiple other high-level 2020 prospects (see list below), one could make the case that adding Plavsic – who might have to sit out the 2019-20 season pending a transfer exemption from the NCAA – in particular could be seen as puzzling. 

#11 Jaden Springer – CG

#22 Cam Hayes – PG currently in the 2021 class who the Vols have approached about reclassifying

#31 Caleb Love – PG

#40 Jayden Stone – SG

#58 Sam Ruzhentsev – Wing

#62 Bryce Thompson – CG

#65 PJ Hall – PF/C

#85 Matthew Murrell – SG

#141 Chris Moore – PF

#149 Dylan Cardwell

And while Love in particular is directly related to new Tennessee assistant coach Kim English (per Rob Lewis of Volquest.com), this list of prospects for whom the Vols are very much in the mix is all before the upcoming summer AAU circuit, when Tennessee’s newfound spot among the country’s top programs along with English’s new (to Tennessee) connections could add to the list.

With all that talent realistically on the board but likely with only one spot remaining, Vol fans can fairly ask the question: “Why add Plavsic, who though a 4-star coming out of high school and is said to possess good mobility and shooting skill along with his 7’1, 240lb frame, was a) not pursued by Barnes initially despite playing up I-75 in Chattanooga, b) was initially committed to Cleveland State before signing with the Sun Devils, and c) redshirted last season, therefore being a bit of a mystery in terms of development and calling into question why he wasn’t able to see the floor? Especially if he might not even be eligible this coming season.” 

Yes, the Vols have a hole in the frontcourt with the loss of Grant Williams (to the NBA), Kyle Alexander and Admiral Schofield (to graduation), and Derrick Walker (to transfer) and with only unproven and inexperienced, albeit potentially talented, backfills.  But neither Plavsic nor Robinson-Nkamhoua project as immediate contributors despite what are clearly talented profiles, so I don’t think getting instant production is the reason. 

Here’s my answer: As much as Barnes clearly has Tennessee recruiting at a higher level than ever, what he values as much as anything is stability and development.  Having the “next man up” ready to step in each and every year and not necessarily bringing in large classes where you’re replacing players who’ve transferred because they’ve been recruited over or are dissatisfied with their role (the anti-Jalen Johnsons) or even one-and-dones that you might not have gotten enough out of (which Barnes experienced a ton of at the end of his run at Texas).  Also, with the 2020 class looking to be heavily loaded with guards and wings – and the potential that James might stay for a second season – it makes sense to have more experienced bigs on the 2020 roster to pair them with.  So rather than, say, PJ Hall (who the Vols are still recruiting and might even take an OV to Knoxville as early as next month) or a Dylan Cardwell coming in as true freshman with theoretically more talent than Plavsic or even Robinson-Nkamhoua but way less experience, Barnes is making the bet that the the two late 2019 signees will be more ready to help the Vols make a big run.  It’s not an across-the-roster bet on experience and development over pedigree, as again the Vols project to have plenty of highly ranked talent, especially at the guard and wing spots (and maybe even down low depending on how they play Corey Walker). 

Barnes clearly is confident in his and his program’s ability to develop players who come to Tennessee with a particular set of skills (shooting, athleticism) and the work ethic to improve.  And he’s also shown, with guys on the current roster like Jalen Johnson, Zach Kent, and Jalen Johnson as clear examples, that he’s not going to run players off who he sees as putting the kind of work in to get better.  That’s what this move with Plavsic seems to be a bet on, even if it’s at the cost of roster spots that very possibly could go to higher ranked/more talented players.  Whether that turns out to be the right play remains to be seen, and we likely won’t know until the 2020-21 season, but it’s hard not to trust a guy who’s done what he’s done while at Tennessee.

Making Progress: Pace and Balance

No team in the country ran fewer plays than Tennessee last season.

The Vols had 716 snaps in 12 games, 59.7 per contest. Maryland was next with 728 snaps. Tennessee also flirted with last place in this category in 2017 – 732 snaps, 125th nationally – but the offense did make strides from one year to the next. The Vols ran fewer plays for the reasons you’d expect in 2017, but were better in all of those categories last fall:

2017Rank2018Rank
Yards Per Play4.771205.4688
Punts Per Game5.9235.533
Third Down %30.7%12038.2%74
Time of Poss.28:1410429:1086
Turnovers18481630

(stats from SportSource Analytics)

The offense improved, but the pace slowed even more. I wouldn’t expect Tennessee to lead the league in total plays under Jeremy Pruitt, no matter who the offensive coordinator is. But we speculated throughout last fall if Tennessee was going slow on purpose, for protection of its defense or otherwise.

It was often easiest to arrive at that thought on first down. Last year the Vols attempted only 95 passes on first down, 119th nationally. Most of what’s behind them are service academies, Georgia Tech, and other option teams. Unlike some of those teams, the Vols played from behind for significant minutes against half of their schedule.

Running on first down could still bear fruit: Tennessee averaged 4.46 yards per carry on 1st-and-10, up from the 3.70 yards they averaged per carry overall. We’ll talk more about this when we get to what the Vols did on 3rd-and-1 in this series. But Tennessee’s 219 first down carries gave them a run/pass ratio of 69.7% on first down.

What kind of difference will Jim Chaney make? One of his greatest strengths is adapting the offense to the talent around him. With Tyler Bray in 2012, the Vols ran the ball just 55.8% of the time on first down. With Nick Chubb and Sony Michel in 2017, Georgia ran the ball a whopping 77.3% of the time on first down. The 2017 leaderboard of first down rushing attempts: Georgia, Air Force, Army, Navy.

In some ways we’ll just need to see it before saying how exactly the Vols will/should go faster in 2019. If Pruitt was, in fact, trying to protect his defense last fall, will it need the same protection this year with an entirely new defensive line? If the offense can excel with plenty of returning pieces and Chaney’s leadership, will the Vols intentionally engage in faster play and more points? There’s no guarantee the one will lead to the other: last year Tennessee’s most efficient day at the office came against Kentucky, where the Vols averaged 6.87 yards per play in just 60 snaps. But the season highs (79 plays vs Florida) and lows (46 at Georgia) produced the two least efficient days against power conference foes: 4.61 yards against the Gators, 4.54 against the Dawgs.

The Vols need to go a little faster with a little more balance on first down. How much more of each will represent their best football in 2019? Stay tuned.

The weight of Tennessee’s offensive line from 2017-2019

If you’ve been following along the last couple of weeks, you know that we’ve been looking closely at the line of scrimmage, particularly from a size perspective. Two weeks ago, we spent most of our time trying to determine if Tennessee had the right size guys along the defensive front, and Wednesday we looked at offensive line continuity. Today, we’ll look at the size of Tennessee’s offensive line.

The cumulative weight of the Vols’ offensive line in 2017

Because of the aforementioned continuity problems, identifying Tennessee’s “starting lineup for the 2017 season” is problematic. As noted in that post, there were 11 different starters at the five positions that year, and four of the five positions were manned by three different starters during the course of the season. The last one wasn’t better, but worse, with six different guys showing up in the start chart at left guard that fall.

With all of that in mind, here’s what we came up with as the 2017 offensive line starters and their weights:

That looks like a pretty hefty offensive line, especially when Kendrick was in at right tackle. How did it compare to last fall?

The cumulative weight of the Vols’ offensive line in 2018

There was better continuity last fall, but the heft took a hit, primarily at the guard positions:

With Jahmir Johnson and Nathan Niehaus both well under 300 pounds, it looks like size could have been a fairly significant factor in the lack of improvement along the line in Pruitt’s first season.

The projected cumulative weight of the Vols’ offensive line in 2019

The good news is that the line is almost certain to get bigger again this fall and, if things play out the right way, it could get A LOT bigger.

Here’s our best guess at the starting lineup for 2019:

First things first: Everybody there is over 300 pounds, so woo for that.

That lineup is based on several assumptions, though. The first is that Brandon Kennedy will re-win the starting position at center and that Johnson — who started 11 games at the position last year — will slide over to guard. That displaces Jahmir Johnson, who started 11 games at left guard in 2018, but I’m moving him out because he’s currently listed at only 270 pounds on the official roster. He may be good, and he may be experienced, but if he’s only 270, I don’t think he makes the cut on a line with more options this year. 247Sports says that Johnson is now up to 297 pounds, but all of the official information is showing that he’s actually lost weight from last season, not gained it. If he is approaching 300, though, then I think he stays in the mix with several other guys.

Other assumptions are (1) that Wanya Morris does indeed win the job at left tackle, for which he was obviously being groomed this spring, (2) that Trey Smith’s health issues will keep him off the field, which is a real shame, and (3) that Darnell Wright not enrolling early means he won’t be able to displace some of the guys who not only got experience last year but also gained weight this offseason.

But now let’s see what happens if we make some different assumptions:

If Smith is able to play, he’ll likely start, and if Wright lives up to his billing and can get out of the gate quickly, he may be able to relegate several of last year’s starters to the two-deep. If both of those things happen, Tennessee has a 1,579-pound offensive line staffed by big dudes from end to end.

Is that good?

But how does a 1,535-pound (or a 1,579-pound) line compare to Tennessee’s main rivals? We’ll look at that next.

Making Progress: Forcing Turnovers

Last summer we looked at five ways Tennessee could show the most improvement in 2018. As was the case with much of last season, progress was present but not in a hurry: Tennessee improved its third down conversation rate from 30.67% to 38.22%, but the other four categories still have plenty of room to grow.

This summer we’re diving deeper into the places Tennessee has the most room for improvement in 2019 with our Making Progress series, starting today with getting the ball back.

Rocket Science, etc.

How many times did Tennessee force more than one turnover last season? One was ETSU. The other two? You guessed it: Auburn and Kentucky. In the other nine games, the Vols forced a single turnover six times, and had the goose egg thrice (UTEP, Georgia, Vanderbilt).

It wasn’t just the volume, but the timing of turnovers in Tennessee’s win at Auburn:

  • Auburn leading 10-3 2Q, Bryce Thompson INT at the UT 41, leads to UT touchdown.
  • Game tied 10-10 2Q, Jonathan Kongbo trick play INT from the UT 36
  • Vols leading 20-17 3Q, Sack-Fumble-TD

The Vols built their 24-7 lead over Kentucky with no assistance, then watched the Wildcats give it away three times in the final 10 minutes, twice inside the Tennessee 35, to prevent any idea of a comeback.

In a sense, it was the opposite problem from 2017. The Vols used a pair of turnovers to get the Georgia Tech game to overtime, but couldn’t beat the Gators despite three turnovers and lost at Kentucky despite a +4 margin. The offense failed to be opportunistic in 2017, then opportunity knocked only twice last fall.

The result: just 15 turnovers in each of the last two seasons, 97th nationally in 2017 and 101st in 2018 (stats via SportSource Analytics). That total joins anemic defenses from 2011 (18 turnovers), 2012 (17), and a what-could-have-been unit from 2015 (19 turnovers) in Tennessee failing to break 20 turnovers five times in the last eight years.

What makes the difference here? In 2017 the Vols recovered more fumbles, picking up ten loose balls with only five interceptions. Last year the Vols almost doubled their INT output with nine, plus six fumble recoveries. Both times the Vols recovered two-thirds of the fumbles they forced, meaning these numbers could’ve been even lower.

Who are the difference makers?

Bryce Thompson had three interceptions last year, Marquill Osborne two in those final ten minutes against Kentucky. Tennessee’s other interceptions last season came from the front seven: Kongbo against Auburn, Darrin Kirkland Jr. against ETSU, Kyle Phillip’s Piesman-winning play against Alabama, and Shy Tuttle had one at South Carolina.

It’s a little thin on the secondary, but I think we all feel pretty good about Thompson, Alontae Taylor, and Trevon Flowers continuing to grow back there. A big piece of this puzzle isn’t just the right guys covering receivers, but making a difference earlier in the play.

SB Nation’s Bill Connelly likes to point out that sack rate is the most reliable statistic when it comes to projecting a team’s turnover margin: the more often you hit the quarterback, the more likely you are to produce both fumbles and bad decisions that become interceptions. Last season the Vols averaged 2.08 sacks per game, 68th nationally. Eight of those 25 sacks came from Darrell Taylor, seven against Georgia and Kentucky. Like most things, it was an improvement over 2017 (22 sacks), but fell behind what the Vols accomplished in the Derek Barnett era (30 sacks in 2015 and 2016, 35 when Barnett and Curt Maggitt played together in 2014).

Something else to consider here: opposing quarterbacks completed 63% of their passes against Tennessee last year, 103rd nationally for the Vol defense. Some of it was who the Vols faced:

QBCmpAttPctYdsYPA
Will Grier253473.542912.6
Jake Fromm162272.71878.4
Tua Tagovailoa192965.530610.6
Drew Lock213070.02578.6

…but then Kyle Shurmur went 31-of-35 (88.6%) for 367 yards and 10.5 per. No other team completed more than 80% of their passes against the Vols this decade; Shurmur flirted with 90%.

So, as is the point with this series, lots of room to grow. For Tennessee to turn progress into progress! in 2019, they will almost certainly need more turnovers. Some of it is luck, some of it maturation in the secondary. But Tennessee also has to be better at disrupting the passer, and giving itself more of a chance to make a play.

Offensive line continuity

Last week, we spent some time looking closely at the importance of size at certain defensive positions. We found that bigger is better along the defensive front and that Tennessee was not only getting bigger, the Vols’ defensive front is likely going to be just as big as Alabama’s and Georgia’s this fall.

All of that made me want to take a closer look at the other side of the line of scrimmage as well. After all, you would think that if bigger is better in the defensive trenches then size would also be important for the guys going up against them.

As I started to gather the information, though, I got sidetracked by noticing something else that may be of equal importance, namely continuity at the offensive line positions. And man, have the Vols had trouble with that.

Offensive line continuity in 2017

The 2017 season was particularly terrible from a continuity perspective. Only two offensive linemen started double-digit games. Trey Smith started all 12, and Jashon Robertson started 10. Drew Richmond — who started 7 games — was the only other player to start more than half the time.

The rest was basically a non-profit board committee. Coleman Thomas started 5, and Brett Kendrick, Ryan Johnson, and Devante Brooks all started 4. Jack Jones and Marcus Tatum each started 3, Riley Locklear started 2, and Venzell Boulware started in one game. That’s 11 different starters at only five offensive line positions.

It’s also ugly when you look at it from a positional perspective. The most stable position was right guard, at which Smith started 8 games. But even that spot was occupied by two other guys for the other four games. Ryan Johnson and Locklear each got the nod twice.

The story is essentially the same at left tackle. Richmond started there for 7 games, but the other five games had Smith there three times and Kendrick there twice.

It just gets worse from there. Here are the starters at center: Robertson (6), Thomas (5), Ryan Johnson (1). At right tackle: Kendrick (5), Brooks (4), Tatum (3).

If you’re keeping count, that’s three different starters at each of the right tackle, right guard, center, and left tackle positions.

But left guard outdid them all. It was a revolving door on Red Bull with six different guys showing up there as starters during the season.

Offensive line continuity in 2018

Things did get better from a continuity perspective in 2018. Three players started double-digit games: Drew Richmond (12), Jahmir Johnson (11), and Ryan Johnson (11). Three more — Trey Smith (7), Jerome Carvin (6), and Nathan Niehaus (6) — started more than half of the games, and Marcus Tatum started five times. Brandon Kennedy started the first game before being lost for the season. Where the Vols rotated in 11 different starters in 2017, they used only eight in 2018.

There was a lot less moving around from position to position last fall as well. Richmond started all 12 games at right tackle, and Johnson & Johnson both started at their respective positions of left guard and center for 11 of 12 games.

Even the other two positions were relatively stable despite having to be manned by more than one guy. Smith started 7 games at left tackle, but when he went out, Tatum took over for the other five. And at right guard, 11 games were handled by only two guys — Niehaus and Carvin. That was the only position occupied by more than two starters over the course of the season, and the third guy filled in for only one game.

Lost in Translation

Admittedly, the improved continuity in 2018 over 2017 didn’t really do much to improve the offense overall last fall. The team was last in the SEC and near the bottom nationally in total offense both seasons. The only real improvement was in Sacks Allowed, which went from 12th in the SEC and 113th nationally in 2017 to 8th in the SEC and 47th nationally. Passing Offense also improved a bit. But most everything else was still a certifiable mess.

This is likely due to the fact that offensive line continuity is only one of many factors impacting offensive line play and that line play is only one of many factors in overall offensive performance. We’ll take a look at some of those other factors in subsequent posts.