When the Vols finally kick off in a couple of weeks, all eyes will be drawn to the shiny objects. We’ll scan the field in search of Wanya Morris, Darnell Wright, Henry To’oTo’o, and Quavaris Crouch, and we’ll hope to see them doing well. The new blood is always the first place we look when searching for hope.
But hope is found not only in new faces or in lag measures like win/loss records. It’s also found in lead measures, those details that lead to the final results you’re after, and you don’t have to wait until the end to analyze those.
We here at GRT are as interested in the new guys as everyone else, but we’ll also be looking closely at certain details, those specific lead measures that will likely foretell final success or failure long before it happens.
Here’s a partial list of the lead measures we’ll be watching when the team kicks off this fall. Will covered some of this in series earlier this summer, but I wanted to gather them all here for the late arrivals and for the purpose of adding to the conversation.
Lead measure No. 1: More third-and-short conversions
Last year Tennessee ran the ball 21 times on 3rd-&-1-to-3. They gained just 20 yards. Those 0.95 yards per carry on third-and-short weren’t just last in the country: Liberty finished 129th, and averaged 1.52 yards per carry. The Vols were the only team in America to average less than a yard-and-a-half per carry on third-and-short, and the Vols averaged less than a yard period.
Ugh.
For my money, this is the thing I’m most interested to see this fall. The early returns will serve as the best prognosis for the offensive line.
The fact that the fate of the 2019 Volunteers is primarily in the big paws of the big men up front on offense is one of college football’s worst-kept secrets. They have additional goals, no doubt — keeping Jarrett Guarantano in one piece and on the field, giving him time to throw, keeping tackles for loss to a minimum, and providing the running backs with sufficient time and space to improve their overall yards per carry regardless of down — but productivity on third-and-short is the canary in the coal mine, and we like our canaries alive, thank you very much.
What to watch for: To be average in this category, the Vols should get somewhere around 4.5 yards on third down with 1-3 yards to go. To be one of the best 25 teams in this category, we’d want to see them get around 5.5 yards.
Lead measure No. 2: More yards per carry regardless of down
The allocation of credit for an offense’s productivity running the ball is an age-old question. The guy carrying the ball gets all of the glory, of course, but he’d get nowhere without his blockers. How much credit to give the big guys, though, is up for debate. I’m inclined to give them a bunch.
So, when a running back struggles, it makes sense to lay much of the blame on the offensive line as well.
Tennessee last season averaged only 3.7 yards per carry, ranking 108th in the nation. If that number improves this fall, it should indicate that the offensive line has indeed improved and the canary lives another day.
What to watch for: Tennessee could work its way into mediocrity by reaching somewhere around 4.5 yards per carry. Over 5 should get them into the Top 25.
The result: just 15 turnovers in each of the last two seasons, 97th nationally in 2017 and 101st in 2018 (stats via SportSource Analytics). That total joins anemic defenses from 2011 (18 turnovers), 2012 (17), and a what-could-have-been unit from 2015 (19 turnovers) in Tennessee failing to break 20 turnovers five times in the last eight years.
Note that this is “turnovers gained,” not “turnover margin.” The Vols were pretty good at protecting the ball when they had it last season, ranking 30th nationally in turnovers lost. They just weren’t very good at taking it away from the other team.
What to watch for: You’d like to see the Vols get at least around 20 turnovers, so maybe 1.6 or so per game to stay on pace. That’s just to get to the median, though. If you’re shooting for the best 25, you want to see somewhere around 24, or an average of 2 per game.
As Will points out in the above article, one of the leading causes of turnovers is sacks, because a sack is a two-pronged problem for an offense. First, they’re often a surprise to the quarterback, who’s not protecting the ball but getting ready to throw it, so he’s more likely to fumble it when hit. Second, even if the quarterback does manage to throw it with an animal bearing down on him, the pressure of a near-sack greatly increases the odds of an interception.
And that brings us to . . .
Lead measure No. 4: More sacks
Bad news: Tennessee had only 25 sacks all of last season, good for only 67th in the nation.
More bad news: 9 of those came from Kyle Phillips, Alexis Johnson, Emmitt Gooden, and Darrin Kirkland, Jr., none of whom will take the field this fall.
Good news: returning outside linebacker Darrell Taylor contributed 8 of them.
Bad news: 7 of Taylor’s sacks came in only two games.
Good news: Those two games were against Georgia and Kentucky, two of the season’s toughest opponents/most important games.
More good news: Everybody knows consistency is the theme of the season for Taylor, and a little additional focus should go a long way for such a talented dude. Derek Barnett had 13 in 2016 with only four goose eggs. He had 1 sack in 6 games, 2 in 2, and 3 in 1. That’s your target, Mr. Taylor.
More bad news: Every opponent knows all of this about Taylor as well, so he’s going to get extra attention from the pass-blockers. This, of course, will create opportunities for Taylor’s teammates.
What to watch for: Tennessee’s ability to generate more sacks this season is one of the main games-within-the-games to watch this fall. They averaged 2.08 sacks per game last season, and we’d like to see an improvement to 2.75 per game this fall. The question marks along the all-new defensive line will make this especially interesting.
Opponents converted 41 of 45 red zone opportunities against the Vols last year, 91.1%, and only two of those four stops came in meaningful situations. That scoring percentage ranked 120th nationally last fall. Opponents scored touchdowns 30 times in those 45 trips; a 66.7% red zone touchdown percentage ranked 90th nationally. (stats via SportSource Analytics)
My first inclination upon seeing this is to simply say that it’s correlated with a defense that was bad everywhere, but that’s really not the case. Tennessee was 49th in total defense, 52nd in rushing defense, and 60th in passing yards allowed. That’s not good, of course, but it doesn’t explain 90th and 120th in red zone touchdowns allowed and red zone scoring allowed.
So what’s the answer here?
I have no idea.
I am intrigued by something I read suggesting that football gets less speedy and more twitchy as the field shrinks and that therefore not knowing what to do matters more because it puts you at an instinctual disadvantage. But I’m not really sold on that idea, either. My humble advice: Do better. 🙂
What to watch for: The target for how often an opponent scores when in the red zone is about 82% for just good and about 76% for really good. Either of those would show improvement.
Bonus measure: More Guarantano, less medical tent
Jarrett Guarantano is better than you think he is. The team needs to protect him better and provide him more time and space to operate so that he can stay on the field instead of the medical tent while the trainers put Humpty back together again.
The odd thing is, the offense wasn’t nearly as terrible at allowing sacks as you might think. Opponents managed 1.92 sacks per game against the Vols, which puts Tennessee at 47th in the nation. Again, a galaxy far, far away from home, but not as bad as it seemed.
I think the real problem is that not all sacks are equal and that each one Guarantano suffered felt like a catastrophe and made you legitimately concerned for his long-term well-being. That, and the fact that 39% of his throws last season were made under pressure.
I’m not sure what stat to watch to monitor this. As far as I know, no one tracks hits on the quarterback that send him to the sideline, but having Guarantano remain on the field for every meaningful offensive snap is a good day.
By week’s end, both OLB BJ
Ojulari and TE Eric Shaw will have
announced their commitments to their respective universities of choice. Both have been to Tennessee’s campus multiple
times, both are rated s 4-stars by 247 Sports (Ojulari at #184 overall – and
also a 4-star on Rivals, Shaw at #301 overall), and both have nice offer
lists. They’re both very good prospects
who will play their college football in the SEC, the best conference in college
football bar none.
Here’s where they differ: Tennessee has gone all-in on Ojulari,
as have LSU, Auburn, Florida and others, whereas in the end Shaw wasn’t a take
for at least the Vols if not also instate Auburn. So today Shaw is going to
pick South Carolina, a program that Tennessee hasn’t beaten since 2015 and one
that is a roadblock for Tennessee in between where it is and where it wants to
be: back at the top of the SEC East and the entire conference. In contrast, the Vols are in a dogfight right
down to the end for Ojulari, who if he doesn’t pick Tennessee will choose
either LSU or Auburn, two programs who’ve been winning at a high level for a
decade-plus. As the rankings difference
and more importantly level of schools willing to take them suggest, Ojulari is
considered to be an “elite adjacent” prospect – he’s not a take for instate UGA
right now – while Shaw is considered
to be a solid player whose ceiling and floor are both lower. Ojulari is a physical freak who’s not only
added weight to his 6-3, 225 pound frame but also added new dimensions to his
pass-rushing skill-set this spring and summer to where he’s no longer strictly
a speed rusher. He won DL MVP at the
Rivals 3 Stripe Camp in Atlanta, showed out at The Opening in Atlanta, and
then most impressively was named to the “Dream Team” at the Opening Finals
against many of the best players in the country. The Vols are looking for at least one bigtime
pass-rushing OLB and would love to pair Ojulari with Reggie Grimes from the Midstate and/or West Coast product Sav’ell Smalls to give them one of the
best position groups in the country.
Ojulari would also combine with QB Harrison
Bailey give the Vols two Marietta HS studs in the class of 2020 to go with
WR Ramel Keyton from last year’s
class, giving Tennessee yet another tie to their teammate and 5-star stud WR/TE Arik Gilbert. That all remains to be seen of course
pending Ojulari’s choice on Friday.
One could make the case that rather than try and go head to
head with the Georgias and Alabamas and LSUs and Auburns for top-end recruits –
where the Vols are going to lose more than they win at least for now – they
should take the slow and steady approach to program building. That is, recruit against the likes of South
Carolina, Missouri, Mississippi State, etc. – programs in the middle of the SEC
to whom Tennessee is looking up at the moment.
As we’ve
discussed, that’s very much not the approach that Jeremy Pruitt is taking
in the least. In fact, as illustrated
very starkly by these two recruitments, Pruitt is looking to just skip over the
programs that he (and Vol fans) feel have no business being slotted above
Tennessee and zoom straight back to competing against the aforementioned
programs at the top of the SEC. Whether
that is ultimately successful or not is to be determined, but they’ve already
got more than a handful of no-doubt bluechippers in this class and
realistically are squarely in the mix for, frankly, a whole lot more after
landing a Top 10 class of 2019. If
Pruitt is in fact successful with his strategy he’ll at the very least raise
the floor for the program, as Tennessee will quickly have way more talent than
the middle of the pack programs, enabling the Vols to go back to beating those
teams regularly strictly on talent alone.
At the same time, Pruitt will have Tennessee at least approximating the talent of the elite SEC programs, narrowing
the gap such that outcoaching and getting a break here and there will enable
Tennessee to actually beat them instead of just coming close as it has for the
better part of the last ten years.
In the 90’s, Tennessee had five Freshman All-Americans: Aaron Hayden and Raymond Austin in 1991, Jamal Lewis in 1997, and Albert Haynesworth and Leonard Scott in 1999. All five made the first team. (Research via Tennessee’s 2019 media guide)
In the next decade, that number jumped to 18, including seven first-teamers: Michael Munoz in 2000, Kelley Washington in 2001, James Wilhoit in 2003, Roshaun Fellows in 2004, Josh McNeil in 2006, Eric Berry in 2007, and Aaron Douglas in 2009.
With one year to go, the Vols have placed 14 players on Freshman All-American teams in this decade, including nine first-teamers: James Stone in 2010, A.J. Johnson and Marcus Jackson in 2011, Jashon Robertson and Derek Barnett in 2014, Chance Hall in 2015, Trey Smith in 2017, and Bryce Thompson and Joe Doyle last season.
Freshmen are playing faster everywhere these days. But at Tennessee, on its fourth new coach since 2008, the new guys get more opportunities…especially in a coach’s second year.
Using the starting lineups from the media guide, here’s every true freshman starter I found in the post-Fulmer era:
2018
J. Carvin
A. Taylor
B. Thompson
2017
T. Smith
J. Palmer
2016
2015
J. Jennings
C. Hall
D. Kirkland
2014
J. Hurd
J. Malone
E. Wolf
J. Robertson
C. Thomas
D. Barnett
2013
M. North
J. Smith
C. Sutton
2012
L. McNeil
2011
M. Jackson
AJ Johnson
C. Maggitt
B. Randolph
2010
T. Bray
J. Stone
2009
A. Douglas
J. Jackson
Freshmen carry the heaviest weight not in year one, but year two: a coach’s first full recruiting class, a chance to get your guys in the mix. In 2011 all four of those starters earned Freshman All-American honors. In 2014 Butch Jones went all-in with six true freshmen starters, plus Todd Kelly Jr. who made the SEC All-Freshman team off the bench. In both cases, those guys would become significant pieces in what we hoped would be arrival seasons in 2012 and 2015-16; you’ll note the absence of true freshmen starters in 2012 (LaDarrell McNeil started after Brian Randolph tore his ACL against Florida) and in 2016 (Nigel Warrior made the SEC All-Freshman team off the bench).
We’ve been penciling in Wanya Morris and Darnell Wright as starters at offensive tackle this fall; Marcus Tatum might have something to say about some of that, but the Vols did start two freshmen on the line in 2014. Coleman Thomas was baptized by fire at Oklahoma, but the Vols still put together a potent offense as the year went along.
From there the sense for the 2019 Vols was that they didn’t have to have freshmen lead right away elsewhere, but if options emerged so be it. Early in fall camp, two of the most frequent names aren’t really that surprising: Eric Gray in the backfield, and Henry To’o To’o at linebacker. I’m not sure Gray will unseat Ty Chandler; the Vols are going to give plenty of opportunity to multiple backs anyway. But To’o To’o is Tennessee’s highest-rated signee behind the offensive tackles, and there is more opportunity to be a “starter” at linebacker than running back.
The mythical year two is usually thought of as one for big leaps. At Tennessee under Derek Dooley and Butch Jones, it was a chance to play a bunch of freshman and generate initial excitement. Dooley’s year two was derailed by injuries to Justin Hunter and Tyler Bray, but only after that excitement broke through against Cincinnati. Butch’s year two built on a close loss at Georgia before the Vols gave away the Florida game; sophomore Josh Dobbs won momentum back by season’s end.
For Jeremy Pruitt, no one is talking about this year two being a leap to championship contention. But if he can showcase his freshmen alongside the returning talent, that sense of excitement can show up on fall Saturdays. And considering the depths from which we’re climbing, there might be enough excitement for not just the future but the present.
With a roster that has been drastically improved since Coach
Jeremy Pruitt took over but still has a ways to go in order for Tennessee to be
a true SEC contender, there realistically isn’t one position that can
reasonably be considered in strong shape top to bottom. There are certainly more
blue chip players on the roster
than there have been in a long time, and there is also hope that Pruitt and his
very well-regarded staff can get step-up performances
from a number of former
3-star recruits who were signed by the former regime. But no matter how you cut it, there are needs
at every position. However, there are a
finite number of scholarships in a given cycle, and staffs inevitably have to
make concessions from one position to another as they put each class
together.
That said, projected numbers at each position in a class can fluctuate depending on a number of factors, most importantly of course the number and talent of the current and future players on the roster. Specifically at Cornerback for Tennessee, three developments in camp so far have the potential to influence what Tennessee seeks to do at the position in the class of 2020:
After two weeks of camp and one major scrimmage, one name has been prominently and consistently mentioned among the breakout players – freshman and veterans alike – so far this fall: CB Warren Burrell. Burrell was an even-at-the-time obviously underrated (by recruiting sites) prospects who chose the Vols over Florida, among others, and was an early enrollee who showed playmaking ability in the spring. At over 6’0 and with long arms and a nose for the ball to go with the kind of attitude needed to be successful at the position, Burrell has taken his strong spring performance and run with it. After receiving rare praise from Pruitt, Burrell by all accounts played most of Sunday night’s scrimmage with the starters at CB opposite Bryce Thompson and is at worst going to be the third CB in the rotation when the Vols start the season in less than three weeks, meaning the three top CBs will all be either sophomores or freshman. Both of the other class of 2019 prospects signed to be CBs – Tyus Fields and Kenny Solomon – have also had their moments early in camp, showing the tenacity and speed/length they are known for, respectively
Tennessee’s only projected contributor in the secondary who is a Senior, Baylen Buchanan, has been injured since the spring and has not yet practiced. At this point, though details of his injury are very scarce, it wouldn’t be surprising for him to take a medical redshirt year in 2019 and come back for the 2020 season. If that happens, it would give the Vols another experienced CB in 2020 that they didn’t anticipate having
Jerrod Means, a late take in the class of 2019 as a WR, was moved to CB before the start of camp and has already shown flashes of real potential. At 6’2 and around 215 pounds, Means has the length that is almost a prerequisite for a Jeremy Pruitt CB prospect. He’s also a kid who ran a 4.4 40 and produced a 39-inch vertical at a Tennessee camp last summer, so his athletic ability is borderline elite for that size. Everyone knows that Pruitt loves DBs who played both on both sides of the ball as that likely means they have ball skills that translate well to the secondary, and Means also played Safety in high school. While it remains to be seen whether he sticks at CB and then becomes a good one, he’s got everything you’re looking for at the position and his move means the Vols added 4 true CBs in the class of 2019
Tennessee already has two CB commitments in the 2020 class
in early enrollee Art Green – the nation’s #2 overall JUCO player – and Lovie
Jenkins. Jenkins is almost a carbon copy
of Burrell in terms of size and length and chose the Vols over a heavy pursuit from Notre Dame as well
as offers from Miami, Missouri, and many others. Do the Vols need another CB in this
class? Maybe not, though it’s unlikely
they’d turn down any of their top targets still on the board – namely Joel
Williams (announcing in September, leaning towards Bama) and Kendal Dennis (Vols
in Top 2 with Auburn, UF and Miami trying hard, could announce in August) – if they wanted in now. But as things change during the season and the
December signing day approaches, the Tennessee staff could certainly decide
that the 3rd CB spot is needed more elsewhere, and given the
developments above that wouldn’t be surprising in the least. It’s a good problem for them to have to work through
and a sign of the ever-improving roster as well as Pruitt and his staff’s
evaluation acumen.
