Category Archives: Football

We’ve learned not to assume a promising coordinator will make a smooth transition. When Butch Jones fired John Jancek and hired Bob Shoop, we thought it was the good-to-great move that could push Tennessee to a championship. Instead, through a combination of bad fit and injuries, the Vols finished 78th in yards per play allowed in 2016 and 87th last season. You just never know.

Tennessee is paying its new offensive coordinator like he’s a fantastic hire: $1.2 million would have tied Brian Daboll and trailed only Matt Canada among offensive coordinators last fall. It’s a significant investment in what could be the most important hire for a defensive-minded head coach.

The Volunteer offense had a similar look and feel for almost 20 years. Phillip Fulmer became offensive coordinator in 1989, kicking off the program’s golden era with an SEC Championship behind Reggie Cobb and Chuck Webb. That ground game would remain a staple crop in Knoxville even when Fulmer ascended to head coach in 1993 and David Cutcliffe took over, pairing Heisman finalists at quarterback with Charlie Garner, James Stewart, Aaron Hayden, Jay Graham, and Jamal Lewis. When Cutcliffe and John Chavis were the two coordinators from 1995-98, Tennessee had the highest winning percentage in college football during that span.

Randy Sanders took over from 1999-2005, guiding one of the most memorable offenses in school history in 2001 and a pair of freshmen quarterbacks (and 1,000 yard rushers) to an SEC East title in 2004. When he was asked to step aside following a 5-6 campaign, Cutcliffe returned and the Vols were in Atlanta again in 2007. Fulmer and his top assistants put a quality product on the field almost every Saturday.

But the last ten years? The Clawfense infamously finished Fulmer off. Lane Kiffin found great success with Jonathan Crompton and Montario Hardesty in the second half of 2009, then left some nice pieces for Jim Chaney under Derek Dooley. Injuries cost the Vol offense much of its promise in 2011, and in 2012 another infamous coordinator hire made a star-studded offense ineffective when the defense was giving up so many points.

Butch Jones employed three different offensive coordinators in his five years, all running a different version of his system. The results were mixed at best: great when they had to be in 2016 under Josh Dobbs, and almost good enough to make even more noise in 2015. But the consistent theme of “almost” became “never” after the first few games of 2017 under Larry Scott, as the Vols finished with their lowest yards per play (4.77) since the Clawfense (4.49).

So now it’s Jeremy Pruitt, and Tyson Helton. What will we get for $1.2 million?

#8. Tyson Helton’s Offense

While I’m not sure it was ever made clear who was calling what percentage of the plays at Southern Cal, there’s still much to learn from what the Trojans did the last two years with Helton on staff. Bill Connelly’s 2018 USC preview offers this:

USC’s offense was mostly awesome. The Trojans were efficient (12th in success rate) and packed big-play potential (seventh in gains of 20-plus yards per game), and while we paid a lot of attention to Darnold’s turnover problems, especially during the run-up to the NFL draft, those concerns were a bit overblown — the Trojans had poor fumbles luck, and nearly half of Darnold’s interceptions came in the first three games.

Connelly also notes two problem areas: negative plays leading to an abundance of third-and-long, and issues scoring touchdowns in the red zone. USC’s touchdown percentage inside the 20 was 86th nationally last year (57.6%) and 52nd in 2016 (63.2%). But it’s not a problem Helton saw at Western Kentucky, which finished ninth in that stat (72.6%) in 2015.

USC went 21-6 the last two years, including a pair of high-profile losses to Alabama in the 2016 opener and Ohio State in last year’s Cotton Bowl. Helton’s offense was ineffective against Pruitt’s Tide defense, like most, and turned it over five times against the Buckeyes.

But there is much to like in the narrative. After a 1-3 start in 2016, USC finished with eight straight wins. To close the year they won at playoff-bound Washington 26-13 behind a strong performance from Sam Darnold (23-of-33 for 287 yards, 8.7 yards per attempt), then blasted rival UCLA 36-14. The Trojans then beat Notre Dame 45-27, and won a classic Rose Bowl over Penn State 52-49 with 615 yards, 453 of them from Darnold.

Last season they lost to Washington State by three, were blown out by Notre Dame, and fell to Ohio State. But the Trojans also beat Stanford twice with 73 combined points in winning the Pac-12. (For more on each performance, check out USC’s advanced statistical profile at Football Study Hall.)

There will be some questions, of course, about how much of USC’s success the last two years came via having the third pick in the draft at quarterback. The Trojans were 14th nationally last season in passing attempts (and yards per attempt), but their run game was often swallowed up in big games (1.92 yards per carry vs Texas, 2.45 vs Notre Dame, 1.58 vs Ohio State). Finding a better balance without an elite quarterback on Tennessee’s roster will be critical.

There’s also enough excitement about Helton’s work at Western Kentucky, and with Joe Webb as the quarterbacks coach at UAB, to believe he’s got plenty of tricks up his sleeve beyond a vanilla pro-style set. Vanilla, you’ll recall, was Fulmer’s flavor of choice. With Helton, we’ll once again hope it can turn into Superman ice cream before long.

 

10 Questions for 2018

10. Which backups on the defensive line will be starters in 2019?

09. Can special teams make the difference in a coach’s first year?

No one reads the special teams entry in a series like this: “We need a new punter, we get it.” But if you’re trying to spring an upset in year one? The third phase can make all the difference.

#9: Special Teams

In Tennessee’s upsets and near-misses in previous year ones, special teams played a critical role:

• You know all about Tennessee’s special teams miscues in the 2009 loss to Alabama in Lane Kiffin’s year, but don’t forget it was a successful onside kick that gave Tennessee a chance to win.
• Butch Jones and the 2013 Vols almost beat Georgia thanks to a blocked punt returned for a touchdown…
• …then did beat South Carolina thanks to a trio of made field goals from Michael Palardy, including the game-winner.

When you’re trying to close the talent gap, one of the quickest ways to make a difference on a fall Saturday is by making a play on special teams. So who’s going to do that for Tennessee this year?

Unfortunately, it won’t be Evan Berry and his better-to-kick-it-out-of-bounds average. But Ty Chandler did take one back to the house last year, finishing 33rd nationally in kick return average. Marquez Callaway housed a punt return in 2016; he was 28th nationally in punt return average in 2017. It may not be Evan Berry and Alvin Kamara, but there is plenty of potential in the return game.

The other side of special teams in a coach’s first year: don’t miss opportunities to score points. A good field goal kicker can make a big difference when the margin is so thin. Daniel Lincoln went 1-of-4 against Alabama in 2009, and also missed a field goal and an extra point in a four-point loss to Auburn; he rebounded to hit 10-of-11 in Derek Dooley’s first season. Meanwhile Palardy was 14-of-17 in 2013, the best kicking performance of the decade for Tennessee.

Last year Brent Cimaglia went 8-of-13, including a pair of costly misses against both Florida and Kentucky. Will he be the answer with Aaron Medley’s graduation? Or will Michigan transfer Ryan Tice get in on the action? A good way to add to frustration in any season, but especially a coach’s first, is to ride the kicker roller coaster all season.

Perhaps the biggest special teams issue will be replacing Trevor Daniel, who was second in the nation last year with 47.47 yards per punt. Freshman Paxton Brooks and Farragut sophomore Joe Doyle will be in the mix this fall.

It’s not sexy, but could make the difference between 5-7 and 6-6 this fall, or help Tennessee score a significant upset. And if the Vols find answers in Chandler, Callaway, Cimaglia, and whoever punts, they could all be around long enough for this to be a true strength in 2019.

10 Questions for 2018

#10: What backup defensive linemen in 2018 will be starting in 2019?

 

The coaches who hit it big at Tennessee’s rival institutions – Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Kirby Smart – all validated themselves in year two. It’s a well-documented leap, one great coaches tend to make. The foundation Jeremy Pruitt inherits isn’t as strong as the ones those three built from: fewer bricks, more mess, etc. But for Tennessee, the 2019 goal also doesn’t have to be the College Football Playoff for Pruitt to be a year two success story.

We almost certainly won’t be entertaining any of these in 2018, but in 2019 Pruitt could validate himself by being the first Tennessee coach in a long time to:

• Win 10 games (2007)
• Win the SEC East (2007)
• Lose less than four games (2004)

While Butch Jones made progress from Derek Dooley’s tenure in total victories and ranked wins, these three barriers still stand. Jones’ teams flirted with them in 2015 and 2016, but were left with only a pair of 9-4 seasons. As such, there is still a step the Vols can make, now under Pruitt’s watch, between year one and competing for the national championship.

All of that to say: this team has a ton of questions in 2018. But we’ll start with the one that might be the biggest question mark for 2019, which could stand in the way of a breakthrough.

#10: Defensive Line Depth

A coaching change brings a fresh start, and a significant part of that is falling back on recruiting rankings for players who haven’t panned out yet. “They were ranked so high for a reason,” we tell ourselves, “and these new coaches, who are always better than our old coaches, can get the most out of them!”

The more optimistic you like to be, the more you’ll lean on this kind of thinking for players like Jarrett Guarantano and Drew Richmond. Lane Kiffin did this very thing for Jonathan Crompton and Montario Hardesty. But nowhere could it be more helpful for Tennessee this fall than on the defensive line.

In Tennessee’s celebrated 2015 recruiting class, three of the five highest-rated signees were defensive linemen. The other two were Preston Williams, who left the team, and Alvin Kamara, who’s doing alright for himself. Kahlil McKenzie elected to go early to the NFL.

But two remain: Kyle Phillips and Shy Tuttle. And in Tennessee’s 2016 class, the third highest-rated signee was Jonathan Kongbo.

Kongbo complicated my analogy by moving to outside linebacker, but in a 3-4 scheme there’s still some truth to the point.

So the Vols might get more production from one or all of these three under a new coaching staff. If so, awesome! That could go a long way toward the Vols having a successful 2018.

But it won’t matter in 2019, because all three of them are seniors.

So no matter how well guys like Phillips and Tuttle play, they aren’t long-term answers for the program. One can hope we don’t need too many of the backups this fall, but next year? Those guys will be the guys.

So who are those guys?

Darrell Taylor, a redshirt junior, could play a similar role to Kongbo; we’ll learn more about that this fall. Two options on the interior – Paul Bain and Alexis Johnson – are also seniors. So as it stands today, here are the returning, 2019-eligible players listed as defensive linemen on Tennessee’s roster:

• Deandre Johnson, Jr (2019)
• Darrell Taylor, R-Sr
• Matthew Butler, Jr
• Kivon Bennett, Jr
• Eric Crosby, Jr
• Ja’Quain Blakely, R-Jr

Darrell Taylor, who again could be better categorized as a linebacker in Pruitt’s scheme, had 27 tackles last year. Alexis Johnson had 14. The rest of those guys combined for seven.

This makes Tennessee’s 2018 signees – Greg Emerson, Brant Lawless, Emmit Gooden, plus Jordan Allen at DE/OLB – critical to next season’s success. How soon and how often will we see them this fall? And will one or more from the existing depth chart take a step up?

If the old recruiting stars pan out for Phillips, Tuttle, and Kongbo this fall, that’s great news for the short-term. But whether they do or not, Tennessee’s long-term future faces a significant question mark on the defensive line. We should get our first taste of the answers this fall.

 

We moved to Virginia today. It’s a new adventure for our family, with all of the emotions that come from leaving a place you love and going to a new place to love.

I started writing about the Vols the first time I moved to Virginia, 12 years ago. In United Methodist world this is the time of year when pastors move to new appointments, and my first was one county over from where we are now, back in 2006. Before that I lived in Knoxville my entire life. It was home. I was 24, single, and suddenly hours from anyone I knew. And so I started writing ten days after I started preaching, more than anything because I missed home.

In time, Ceres became home. And then Athens. And we are so full of hope to say the same thing about Pulaski.

But today, we lost one of my favorite things about Knoxville being home. One of the biggest reasons I loved and love Tennessee enough to write about it for so many years. And if you’re reading this, I bet he was one of your favorite reasons too.

John Ward is the only autograph I’ve ever sought out. I have a handful of others that someone got or bought for me, or passed down from one generation to the next. But the only one I’ve ever stood in line for – sports or otherwise – belonged to Tennessee’s play-by-play announcer when I grew up.

It was my junior year of high school at Foothills Mall in early 1998, before we knew what that year would become. One of my closest friends, then and now, is the son of Gaylon Hill, who played on the offensive line at Tennessee in the early 1970’s. And we stood in line together; him with some pictures of his dad, me with nothing. But I was more than happy to get one of Mr. Ward’s own pictures from the stack next to him.

I was embarrassingly nervous. But Mr. Ward cut the tension, first by remembering my friend’s dad. It’s an impressive thing to know an offensive lineman – a name you rarely call doing play-by-play – 15 or so years after the fact. It’s even more impressive when you consider he had been doing this for more than three decades.

After signing some pictures of Gaylon, Mr. Ward asked if my friend also wanted a photo of himself from the stack. To my unbelief, my friend said, “No thanks.” And John Ward, in perfect cadence, replied, “Why not?”

To me, it was those little things. We all remember the catchphrases and the big moments. But I adore the details. There’s a little chuckle in Jeff Powell’s run in the 1986 Sugar Bowl when he says, “Forty-five, forty…” as if to signify that he, too, can’t believe all of this is happening but it is. He also let the moments be the moments without over-inflating them. The way he says, “Thirty-four, twenty-seven“ after Aaron Hayden’s first touchdown at the Miracle at South Bend is perfect. Instead of spending two dozen words to speak to what a tremendous comeback this would be for Tennessee, he does it in one syllable.

And I remember all of this because so many of us not only turned down the TV and turned up the radio for all those years, but heard his voice on so many highlight tapes season after season. I have no doubt Mr. Ward would tell you there are many, many people at the Vol Network who helped make him great; they all certainly helped make it great to be a kid in East Tennessee in the 1990’s. I did play-by-play for Alcoa High School for three years in the early 2000’s, and would find random calls Ward made coming out of my mouth unintentionally when Alcoa did something similar because I’d seen those tapes and heard those calls so many times.

And that’s the thing, at least for my generation. The story was undeniably great. But the storyteller was so unbelievably good, we would’ve been lucky to have him regardless of how many wins he got to tell us about.

I believe in story. It’s what changes things. Even when we think we’d rather have the bullet points, it’s story that truly transforms. In my line of work, I find we sometimes think things would’ve been easier if God just gave us more lists. But what we get is story. And the character at its heart, even as a carpenter by trade, chooses to speak its language. Because a good story can save your soul.

So tonight, in an unfamiliar house in a place we’ll soon call home, I’m comforted yet again by the sounds of my childhood. They were some of Tennessee’s best stories. But a good story is only good if you tell it well.

And nobody told it like John Ward.

(Or, what was Tennessee worst at last year?)

That’s a long list, as you might remember. Or, if you’re like me, you might not. Tennessee’s 2017 season became about the future after the Georgia loss. And when that future headed toward change soon after, it was easier to pay attention to potential new coaches every Saturday than document what Team 121 was doing.

So there’s an obvious joke here about this year’s team being able to show improvement basically everywhere; the 2017 Vols didn’t excel at anything in particular. But, thanks to the data from Sports Source Analytics, we can pinpoint a number of more specific ways the 2018 Vols can be better. Out of 130 teams nationally, these are the five categories Tennessee was statistically worst at in 2017.

Big Plays: 123rd in 20+ yard plays in 2017 (38 in 12 games)

Don’t remember any big plays from the Tennessee offense after the Georgia Tech game? That’s because there weren’t many. Only 38 plays of 20+ yards for the Vol offense was the lowest total since the injury-plagued 2011 season (36). Under Butch Jones the Vols were more explosive every season until last year, going from 46 20+ yard plays in 2013 to 55, 63, and 79 in 2016. But the bottom fell out without Josh Dobbs and under new offensive coordinator Larry Scott, cutting UT’s explosiveness almost literally in half.

Where will big plays come from in 2018? For what it’s worth, Marquez Callaway excelled during Quinten Dormady’s early tenure, catching eight passes for 198 yards and three touchdowns in the first three games of the year. We’re also familiar with the work of Jauan Jennings, who caught 11 passes for 250 yards against Florida, Georgia, and Texas A&M in 2016. The Vols could also use more explosiveness in the ground game; you may recall John Kelly showing plenty of that in the early going (38 for 269, 7.1 yards per carry against Georgia Tech and Florida) before injuries up front and the general ineffectiveness of the offense eliminated much of the possibility. Explosiveness is one of the most important factors for success; the Vols have lots of room for improvement.

Run Defense: 121st in yards per carry allowed (5.43)

By contrast, Jeremy Pruitt’s Alabama defense led the nation in yards per carry allowed last season at 2.72. Tennessee’s number swells to 5.60 yards per carry allowed if you take out the Indiana State game, and it wasn’t just Georgia Tech (6.22) who did the damage. Lost in the flames of an assumed coaching search were 8+ yards per carry performances by Kentucky and Missouri. That’s the sort of number you expect to see only when facing elite competition: 2011 Arkansas, 2013 Auburn, and 2016 Alabama all went for 8+ against the Vols. But, alarmingly, so did Kentucky…in 2016 and 2017.

It was the worst performance against the run by a Tennessee defense in at least the last ten years, and probably far beyond that. Some old standbys – being more physical, defenders swarming to the ball, etc. – can help, but the Vols also need more size and more options up front. There’s some hope, especially if you still value recruiting stars, in the starting lineup, but little proven depth behind them.  We’ll see how big of an issue that becomes if teams continue to simply pound away at Tennessee late in the game. Again, nowhere to go but up.

Negative Plays: 121st in TFLs allowed (7.42 per game)

Not only did the Vols fail to create explosive plays, they were also one of the worst teams in the country in the opposite direction.

Tackles for loss allowed are one part offensive line and one part scheme. You can track strong (2013) and weak (2010, which was most of the 2013 line as freshmen) offensive lines fairly well through this stat alone. But if it felt like the Butch Jones offense went backwards more than usual, the stats back up the perception. After allowing only 5.25 TFLs per game in 2013 (37th nationally), the Vols were next-to-last in the nation in TFLs allowed in 2014 (7.77 allowed). The only offense behind them was, you guessed it, Wake Forest.

Even nationally competitive Vol squads in 2015 (7.08 TFLs per game allowed, 108th nationally) and 2016 (5.54, 53rd) went backwards more than their fair share, before things bottomed out last fall. I think the scheme change will help things by itself here: USC was 35th nationally in TFLs allowed last season. Under Tyson Helton the Vols will probably be doing less behind the line of scrimmage; hopefully that also translates to more explosive plays.

Third Down: 120th in conversion percentage (30.67%)

When you can’t be explosive and you go backwards a lot, you don’t do well on third down. Two years after being one of the best teams in the nation on third down in 2015 (45.97%, 21st nationally), the Vols were one of the worst teams in the nation on third down last fall.

For what it’s worth, Tennessee went 1-of-12 against both Georgia and Alabama on third down, meaning the Vols were at 34.5% against the rest of the schedule. Not great, but not the worst in the land either. The Vols were entirely ineffective against the Dawgs and Tide, which means yet again there’s plenty of room for progress this fall. But you’ll also find a 2-of-13 performance in there against Southern Miss. The entire offense has plenty of room to grow, and the best way to convert on third down is to be better on first and second down. But for the Vols to be successful in 2018, they’ll need to be better in crucial third down situations as well.

Interceptions: 119th nationally (5 in 12 games)

Some of this is a byproduct of teams getting ahead of the Vols and not needing to throw it; Tennessee saw only 279 pass attempts from the opposition, the fourth-fewest nationally. But that’s still just five interceptions in 279 tries, just 1.8% of passes. Even when taking a number of beatings in 2013 and 2011, the Vols still had interception rates above 2%.

Corner is one of the biggest question marks for this year’s team, and any group looking to overachieve will need to create turnovers to get there. Pruitt’s Bama defense had 19 interceptions last year; just putting guys in better position to make a play can help this defense show significant improvement over last year.

 

We’ve been including a Top 25 in our Gameday on Rocky Top preseason magazine for a couple of years now. Last year, our biggest miss was Florida State (preseason No. 4), which lost its quarterback in the first game and finished only 7-6. We also missed on Michigan (preseason No. 15), Louisville (preseason No. 16), Texas (preseason No. 18), and West Virginia (preseason No. 20), and no team that we ranked outside of the Top 20 actually finished in the Top 25.

But . . . we actually did pretty well as far as these things go. Most of our Top 10 finished the season in the Top 12, and with the exception of FSU, those that didn’t weren’t too far off at No. 16 (Washington, preseason No. 8), No. 14 (Oklahoma State, preseason No. 9), and No. 18 (LSU, preseason No. 10).

Here’s our preseason Top 25 for the upcoming 2018 season, as we published it in the magazine but with some updated comments in italics.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama seems to have developed an immunity to the kind of attrition that usually destroys other programs. Its inoculation is a cocktail of elite coaching and elite recruiting.

So yeah, there’s a competition at quarterback between Jalen Hurts, who got them to the national championship, and Tua Tagovailoa, who won it. [UPDATE: It’s looking like Tagovailoa is going to be the guy.] And they lose three starting receivers and a running back.

And yes, it’s even worse on defense. Yada, yada, yada.

But as always, there’s plenty of talent on the sideline, so they’ll not only be fine, they’ll thrive.

Saban does have a new offensive coordinator and will be entrusting his prized defense to the team’s third new defensive coordinator in four years, so if there’s a vulnerability, maybe it’s there.

But with Damien Harris at running back, a talented receiving corps, an experienced offensive line, and a defense as salty as ever, expect Alabama to hit a speed bump and then still arrive at College Football Playoff again anyway.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

Urban Meyer has things rolling in Columbus, having won at least 11 games in each of his six seasons as a Buckeye. His challenge heading into the 2018 season is the same as it always is – find the right talent on the roster to replace the talent departing.

The greatest challenge this season is replacing quarterback J.T. Barrett, but the offensive line also loses two All-Americans, and the defense loses its share of guys, too.

The competition to replace Barrett is between Dwayne Haskins, Joe Burrow [UPDATE: Burrow is transferring to LSU], and Tate Martell, but Haskins appears to have the edge in the early running to take the reins as a sophomore. Whoever wins will have the luxury of a solid supporting cast with running back J.K. Dobbins and the top six receivers all returning.

This year’s schedule includes road trips to Penn State, Michigan State, and Purdue, and an out-of-conference contest with TCU. But the Buckeyes appear to be the favorites to win the Big 10 this fall.

3. Clemson Tigers

Like Nick Saban and Urban Meyer, Dabo Swinney is quickly becoming a master of managing team attrition by way of elite recruiting. He’s having to contend with early departures to the NFL again this year, but his cupboard is well-stocked.

The best news for Swinney, though, is that his offense doesn’t require much re-stocking this fall. Quarterback Kelly Bryant returns, as do running backs Travis Etienne and Tavien Feaster. The receiving corps may be the best in the nation, with Hunter Renfrow, Tee Higgins, and Amari Rodgers all returning. The offensive line is missing three starters, but Mitch Hyatt is back to keep things under control.

The defense will have to re-tool a bit, but it will do so around star defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence.

The schedule includes road trips to Florida State and out-of-conference opponent Texas A&M, but isn’t particularly problematic, and Clemson is the favorite to win its fourth consecutive ACC title this season.

4. Georgia Bulldogs

In Kirby Smart’s second year, he had his Georgia Bulldogs team just one play away from winning it all, but what they couldn’t finish on the field, they finished on the recruiting trail, knocking Alabama out of the top spot in the recruiting rankings.

Nick Chubb and Sony Michel are gone, but Georgia stands ready to unleash a three-headed monster at running back in D’Andre Swift, Brian Herrien, and Elijah Holyfield. Jake Fromm is back at quarterback, and although they lose receiver Javon Wims, they return Terry Godwin and Mecole Hardman.

On defense, the Bulldogs will miss Butkus Award Winner Roquan Smith and a bushel full of other terrific players, but can choose their replacements from among a large group of talent.

The Bulldogs have questions, but they also have answers, so we expect Georgia to represent the SEC East in Atlanta again this fall.

5. Washington Huskies

Chris Petersen’s Huskies have won 10 and 12 games each of the past two seasons and seem like they could take that final step into greatness this fall.

Any departures from last year’s team are offset by the return of Jake Browning, who is back for his senior season as a four-year starter. He’ll be joined by running back Myles Gaskin, who’s had three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, and fellow back Salvon Ahmed. The receiving corps returns Chico McClatcher and tight end Hunter Bryant, and the line returns Trey Adams.

On defense, the key guys returning include linebacker Ryan Bowman, cornerback Byron Murphy, and safety Taylor Rapp.

The Huskies open the season against non-conference opponent Auburn, which will be an intriguing game for both teams, and they get Stanford at home. Expect Washington to be the Pac-12 team most likely to compete for a spot in the College Football Playoff this season.

6. Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma really couldn’t have asked for much more out of Lincoln Riley’s first year replacing the legendary Bob Stoops as the Sooners’ head coach. Maybe you’d want a bit more defense, but losing in double-overtime in the College Football Playoff Semifinal in your first season is not bad.

Now, though, Riley is going to have to do it without quarterback Baker Mayfield and lineman Orlando Brown. The role of Mayfield will now be played by Texas A&M transfer Kyler Murray. He’ll be joined by running backs Rodney Anderson and Trey Sermon, receivers Marquise Brown and CeeDee Lamb, and three starters along one of the nation’s best offensive lines.

The defense loses Big 12 Co-Defensive Player of the Year Ogbonnia Okoronkwo as well as several other key players, but they have capable guys ready to step up.

The Sooners open the 2018 season against Lane Kiffin’s FAU squad and then host UCLA before commencing conference play. They are the favorites to win the Big 12.

7. Miami Hurricanes

Most expected Mark Richt to have success as the head coach at Miami, but few believed he would find it in his first season. Despite finishing with three consecutive losses last year, Richt’s team finished first in the ACC Coastal division and challenged Clemson for the ACC title. They could be even better this year, as they return a great deal of talent from last year’s squad.

The offense loses a few key pieces but returns quarterback Malik Rosier this fall, and he’ll be joined in the backfield by running backs Travis Homer and Lorenzo Lingard. The Hurricanes should also get receiver Ahmmon Richards back from injury.

Miami kicks off the 2018 season with a huge game at Jerry World against the LSU Tigers. They also have a late road trip to play the Virginia Tech Hokies, but the rest of the schedule is quite manageable. They’re probably still a recruiting class or two away from catching Clemson for the ACC title, but they are well on their way.

8. Auburn Tigers

Auburn nearly lost head coach Gus Malzahn to Arkansas last season, but upped the ante to keep him. Good thing, too, because they’re going to need him this fall.

The Tigers beat both Georgia and Alabama last year but got left out of the playoff when they lost the rematch to the Bulldogs. Heading into 2018, they have to replace some key guys, as the NFL has swooped in to snatch up running backs Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway, linebacker Jeff Holland, and defensive back Carlton Davis.

The Tigers are fortunate to have quarterback Jarrett Stidham back, though, and he’s fortunate to have most of his receiving corps return. Kam Martin takes over at running back for Johnson and Pettway.
Auburn’s toughest conference games are all on the road this fall, as they have to travel to take on Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi State. They also added a tough out-of-conference game with Washington this season.

All of that will make it a challenge for the Tigers in 2018.

9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The Fighting Irish finished the 2017 season with a 10-3 record, but a 2-2 November headlined by an embarrassing loss to Miami really seemed to put a damper on the season.

Now, they head into 2018 with several challenges. The team must replace two standout linemen in Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey. Also gone are running back Josh Adams, receiver Equanimeous St. Brown, and defensive coordinator Mike Elko.

It’s not all bad news for Notre Dame, though. Quarterback Brandon Wimbush returns, as does Ian Book, who will compete with him for the starting position. Whoever wins the job, he’ll have a talented group of receivers to throw to, provided the new offensive line can give them time to connect.

Notre Dame opens the season against Michigan and also has games scheduled with Virginia Tech, USC, and Florida State. They could get 10 wins again this season, but they’ll have to solve their issues in the trenches first.

10. Wisconsin Badgers

Paul Chryst’s Wisconsin team is a model of consistency, regularly winning the Big Ten West and competing with Ohio State for the conference title. If they could only take care of business in the championship game, they’d be positioned for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

The Badgers have to re-tool their defense this season, but nearly everybody is back on offense. Leading the way is quarterback Alex Hornibrook and a wide receiving corps featuring Quintez Cephus, A.J. Taylor, Danny Davis, and Kendric Pryor. The passing game will be complemented by the return of running back Jonathan Taylor fresh off an excellent first season. In all, the offense returns 10 of 11 starters.

The defense has more of a challenge heading into this season, as it loses two ends, two linebackers, and three defensive backs. But standout linebacker T.J. Edwards returns.

With most of the rest of the Big Ten firepower residing in the East, Wisconsin has a relatively easy path to the Big Ten championship game. Continue reading “Gameday on Rocky Top 2018 preseason Top 25”