Your Gameday Gameplan: Tennessee-UTEP

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the 1-1 Tennessee Vols hosting the UTEP Miners at Neyland Stadium today at noon.

Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

The best other games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:

Saturday, September 15, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON SLATE
UTEP Tennessee 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN Live Go Vols!
Murray State Kentucky 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN DVR Future Opponent
Vanderbilt No. 8 Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC DVR Future Opponent
AFTERNOON SLATE
No. 12 LSU No. 7 Auburn 3:30 PM CBS Channel Hop - 2 Top 25 Matchup
No. 17 Boise State No. 24 Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup
Colorado State Florida 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN Channel Hop - 1 Next Opponent
EVENING SLATE
No. 1 Alabama Ole Miss 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Future Opponent
Middle Tennessee No. 3 Georgia 7:15 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN Channel Hop Future Opponent
Missouri Purdue 7:30 PM BTN Channel Hop Future Opponent
No. 4 Ohio State No. 15 TCU 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup

See also, this week’s full college football TV schedule.

GRT games and contests

While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.

GRT game-week audio

No, we haven’t kicked the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast to the curb. It just got swallowed up by an over-busy schedule this week. Rest assured, it will return this week, and to be sure you won’t miss it, subscribe via iTunes or Google:

 Listen on Google Play Music

You can still hear Will on his weekly appearance with Josh Ward and Will West’s Sports 180 on WNML:

Pre-game prep

And to catch up on on your pre-game reading, have a look at our game preview posts from earlier this week:

New, experimental game thread

It seems that most people discuss live events on Twitter these days. The problem with that, in my opinion anyway, is that Twitter is much too noisy. It can sometimes be like having a bunch of uninvited people in your basement while you’re trying to watch the game with friends in peace. The thing I like about an open game thread here is that it’s a discussion among friends, like-minded folks who want to enjoy the game together because they also enjoy each others’ company. The problem is that Twitter has all the best snacks, so nobody shows up.

So, in an experimental attempt to get the best of both worlds, I’m going to create a special Twitter list of our esteemed Gameday on Rocky Top community members and then embed it here. I don’t know that it’s going to offer anything better than all-Twitter or all-GRT, but I figure it’s worth a shot.

So . . . if you’d like to be included in the Twitter GRT Game Thread list, post your Twitter handle in the comment section below so I can add you.

Here goes nothing. 🙂

Go Vols!

Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game: UTEP edition

It’s time for this week’s edition of the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game. If you are wondering what that is exactly, you can find out everything you need to know here. Last week’s results are here.

 

Let’sa go!

  1. Submit your answers to our three questions below.
  2. Click the “Submit” button.
  3. Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.

Good luck!

The Unpredictable (Non-UGA) SEC East

Two weeks into the season, our top two thoughts about the SEC East remain unchanged:

  • Georgia is waaaaaaayyyyyyy better than everyone else; the Vols shouldn’t compare themselves to UGA right now.
  • There’s little separation between the rest of the division; the Vols may have finished last in 2017, but how they do against the non-UGA East is still a good barometer in 2018.

South Carolina was the most popular choice to come in second; they got dusted by Georgia at home, trailing 41-10 until a late touchdown trimmed the final margin to 24. And on the other end of the spectrum, Kentucky beat Florida – in Gainesville – for the first time in more than three decades.

There’s an anything-can-happen feel to the rest of the division behind the Dawgs. Case in point: look who’s leading the non-UGA pack in S&P+ through two weeks:

Team S&P+ FPI
Missouri 16 27
Vanderbilt 23 53
Kentucky 35 47
South Carolina 43 33
Florida 46 32
Tennessee 57 61

Wyoming-over-Missouri was a trendy preseason pick; the Tigers routed the Cowboys 40-13 and now face a suddenly 0-2 Purdue team this week. And if your reflex is still to pick against Vanderbilt no matter what, you paid dearly for it the first two weeks: 35-7 over MTSU, 41-10 over Nevada.

These numbers will be tested over the next two weeks. Vanderbilt is in South Bend Saturday afternoon, Missouri hosts Georgia next week. We’ll see how good those two are against top-level competition. But the anything-can-happen-ness among the rest of the division is still good news for a Tennessee team looking to move its way up the ladder.

Recruiting is still the long-term solution, and Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Missouri are still not threats there. The Vols (11th) have the lead on South Carolina (16th) and Florida (18th) in the 247 Composite Rankings, but the Gators (53.3%) and Gamecocks (44.4%) now lead the Vols (40%) in blue chip ratio. Without the on-field results, it will be difficult for Jeremy Pruitt and staff to separate themselves from Muschamp and Mullen in recruiting.

That makes whatever separation can be earned on the field even more important. Thus Tennessee’s five most important games are all against the non-UGA SEC East, all of them some version of up for grabs. The Vols get one more tune-up this week, then the Gators, then three straight “brace yourself” opponents with a bye week thrown in for good measure. But whatever happens there or even against Florida, four of those most important games are in the last five down the stretch (plus Charlotte). What happens against those big rivals in the middle may feel like it carries more weight, but it may be what the Vols can do against their secondary rivals from the SEC East down the stretch that becomes the best sign of progress. For Tennessee to be successful, historically speaking, it has to separate itself from Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina. The Vols can’t allow those secondary rivalries to become actual rivalries in the long-term.

In the short-term, though, we should be in for interesting outcomes when these six teams face each other.

 

Locks & Keys Week 3: A Miner Test Before Florida

That’s a little more like it, Vols.

After an embarrassing season-opening 40-14 loss at the hands of West Virginia, Tennessee played a much easier opponent in Week 2, overcoming a sluggish start to dominate visiting East Tennessee State, 59-3. The Vols again play a pushover this week with an early kickoff against UTEP. It would be nice to do the same thing, getting a last-week tuneup in time for the Florida Gators.

Let’s face it: This is a game where the Vols can look ahead and still win. As a matter of fact, they should go into this game with the feeling that this is a preparation game for next week’s massive early-season showdown against a Gators team that is very beatable.

Neither the Vols or Florida are going to challenge Georgia in the SEC East, but that doesn’t change the importance of next weekend’s night game one iota. The Vols need to get everything out of their system this weekend and gain a ton of confidence heading into SEC play. So, what’s it going to take to do that?

KEYS

Bypass the breakfast hangover

Morning games suck. It’s actually a good thing for me personally this week because I can just enjoy the Vols and then worry about all my other writing responsibilities later in the day, but players, coaches, fans, virtually everybody hates them.

The exciting thing for the Vols is next week’s Neyland Stadium showdown with Florida is a night game, which is awesome. But in order to get there, the Vols have to wake and rake this weekend against UTEP. Hey, at least it’s UTEP, amirite?

The Miners aren’t a good football team, but Tennessee made ETSU look OK a week ago by struggling to start the game. This came on the heels of Jarrett Guarantano nearly getting his teeth knocked out as West Virginia destroyed him on the season opener’s first play. The Vols have been sleepwalking out of the gates. That won’t get them beat this week, but it’s a nasty habit that will kill them as the season progresses. They need a hot start this weekend and to keep that momentum going.

Get the O-line online

This week, I ranked the Vols next-to-last in my SEC Week 2 power rankings on B/R. That doesn’t mean they can’t move up; I expect them to. But they’ve got to prove it to everybody. Right now, they’re still the same team that went 0-8 a year ago and still have tons of issues.

Perhaps the biggest struggle right now in what could be a fixable situation is the offensive line.

It hurts that transfer center Brandon Kennedy is out for the year after a freak accident in practice that led to a torn ACL. But between Ryan Johnson and Jerome Carvin, the Vols have players there who can fill the void if they play up to their potential.

The Vols’ most athletic offensive front includes Carvin, K’Rojhn Calbert, Trey Smith, Jahmir Johnson and Marcus Tatum. That doesn’t mean the Vols are ever going to go with that unit, but that’s what would give the Vols their biggest chance at success. But those guys have to own it, and they haven’t yet. Veterans like Johnson and Drew Richmond must play better, or they’ll get bypassed.

Coach Jeremy Pruitt has another week to mix and match, but the time has come for the first-team offensive line to materialize and start playing up to their ability. If they play like they have so far against Florida, UT is in bad shape.

Split reps

This may sound like an indictment of Guarantano, and it absolutely shouldn’t, but Keller Chryst needs to play and to throw more than three passes.

Look: I don’t think there’s any question Guarantano is the starter, and he’s earned it. Everybody “oohed” and “ahhed” over that deep ball Chryst threw last week against ETSU. Well, guess what? Guarantano completed two. Still, next weekend is going to be a different animal, and if JG starts to struggle, you need to know you can go to the Chryst well and good things could possibly follow.

I want Chryst to be loosened up entering the Florida game. There’s also the possibility that JG could get hit and hurt with all the early-season offensive line issues, and you want Chryst ready. He’s a veteran, and he looked poised an confident leading the offense.

Give him two quarters against the Miners, no questions asked. Give him 10 or 12 throws. The Vols need it for the immediate future.

Maintain the defensive edge

Last weekend was so much fun on defense. Yes, the Vols played a team they are much bigger, faster and stronger than. But they were all over the field doing big things on defense, making plays and piling on.

Marquill Osborne’s punt block and recovery for a touchdown got the ball rolling. Then you had Bryce Thompson’s interception and return for a near-touchdown that set up another one. Darrin Kirkland Jr. finally got the UT defense one with a pick six. It was the kind of plays you expect to make against ETSU, and it’s the kind of plays the Vols are going to have to make on that side of the ball if they’re going to win a game or two they aren’t supposed to this year.

The Buccaneers couldn’t convert on third downs, and the UT defense consistently got off the field and didn’t give up big plays. Now, of course, ETSU is a far cry from Georgia, Alabama, Auburn or even Florida. But the Vols haven’t done that against ANYBODY.

Troubling still is the lack of a pass rush. Tennessee desperately has to manufacture ways to get to the quarterback. That’s especially important this week as they must find a spark before UF and Feleipe Franks come to town. The Gators signal-caller is erratic when pressured, and that’s something the Vols must find.

Ride the Bull

We all hope this week that Ty Chandler can get back into the game and get some important reps under his belt before the big game against Florida. After all, he’s UT’s starter who got his bell rung early in the West Virginia game never to return. Tim Jordan has done an excellent job spelling him, but the Vols need Chandler healthy by next week.

But this is the ideal situation this week to get Jeremy “Bull” Banks 20 carries. Last week against ETSU, he powered his way in for two goal-line touchdowns and was Tennessee’s most passionate, violent runner by far. It’s exciting to think about his future, especially after Pruitt — who rarely makes comparisons — said he reminds his coach of former Alabama great and NFL starter Eddie “Cowboy” Lacy.

Bull needs 20 carries this week. Let him carry the team on his shoulders for spans. Pruitt has praised him, calling him one of the team’s best leaders already. Let him lead.

Vols 49 UTEP 13

LOCKS

Last week was Jameis Winston Skrong. After a 4-3 opening weekend, the picks thrived last weekend, going 5-2 to kick it up a notch. We’re going for 7-0 this week!  My only two losses a week ago were picking Memphis to cover 4.5 over Navy (the Tigers lost outright) and Fresno State getting 2.5 against Minnesota. The cross-country trippers failed yet again. CURSES! When will I learn!

Meanwhile, Mississippi State rolled over Kansas State, easily eclipsing 9.5, Cincinnati handled Miami Ohio despite being 2.5-point dogs, Mizzou thumped Wyoming, easily covering the 17.5-point spread, and Maryland got it going late to surpass the 16.5-point advantage over Bowling Green.

That puts the ol’ early-season record at 9-5. That isn’t too bad. We’ll take it. We’re up money!

  1. Tennessee vs. UTEP over 48: There must be something I’m missing here. As my score above indicates, I think the Vols get to this number by themselves, and while UT looked better on defense a week ago, the Vols still aren’t a team you think are going to hold many teams off the scoreboard. This one flies over easily.
  2. Maryland -16.5 over Temple: I’m gonna keep riding the Turtles! Last weekend, they covered against Bowling Green. Meanwhile, Temple fell to 0-2 getting upset by Buffalo. This is two teams going in opposite directions. Maryland by 20-plus.
  3. Hawaii +6.5 over Army: I JUST talked about the dangers of taking a team that has to go across the country, and now I’m doing it again. Stupid, right? Nah. Hawaii’s run-and-shoot offense is fun, and Cole McDonald is one of the best college players you’ve got heard of this year. I think the Warriors have a great chance to move to 4-0. Take the points, even if the fact that it being an early game scaaaaaaaares me.
  4. Colorado State +20 over Florida: The Gators are going to win their final tune-up before heading to Knoxville to take on the Vols, but Mike Bobo’s Rams are fresh off an upset of Arkansas. They are a quality offensive team, and UF can’t score a ton of points, no matter how bad CSU’s defense is. I’d be stunned if the Gators won this game by three TDs.
  5. Alabama -21 over Ole Miss: Is Hugh Freeze still coaching the Rebels? Didn’t think so. Ol’ Hubert always did well against the Tide, but Shotgun Kelly ain’t walking through that door. Ole Miss can’t stop anybody on defense, and now Alabama brings its elite weaponry to town. I’m taking the Tide until they prove they won’t cover.
  6. Vanderbilt and Notre Dame under 52: As much as I think VU is going to cover the spread here, I liked the number better earlier in the week when it was Commodores +14. With that number creeping below two touchdowns, I’m leery on the road. But I’m not when it comes to the under. This is two hard-nosed teams, and I expect it to be low-scoring. I hate unders, but I’ll take this.
  7. Rutgers +2.5 over Kansas: I’m not a Jayhawks believer just because they went on the road to Central Michigan last week and got their first victory away from home since 2009. TWO THOUSAND AND NINE!!! They return to Lawrence this weekend to take on a Rutgers team that is thankful they got the Ohio State debacle out of the way. The Scarlet Knights roll on the road.

Tennessee-UTEP statsy preview prediction: Vols 45, UTEP 10

With it still being so early in the season, projecting games consists of attempting to identify what’s of value so far this season and what’s of value from last season, combining the two, and then comparing the result to your gut, which in the third game of any new season is on equal footing with data.

So let’s get to it. First, the predictions, and below them, the details:

Predictions

Tennessee rushing yards: 200

UTEP rushing yards: 125

Tennessee passing yards: 200

UTEP passing yards: 90

Tennessee points: 45

UTEP points: 10

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 159.5 rushing yards per game so far in this short season. UTEP is giving up 260.5 per game, which makes them the worst rushing defense the Vols have faced so far. UTEP’s run defense was similarly bad last season, so that supports the result from the small sample size of the 2018 season.

Tennessee got 129 rushing yards against West Virginia and 190 against ETSU. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against UTEP is 200.

UTEP rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 121.5 rushing yards per game so far in 2018, while the UTEP run game is averaging 183.5 yards per game. Last year, those numbers were 251.3 and 91.6, significantly worse for both teams.

West Virginia is averaging 203.5 rushing yards per game so far this season, and they put up 118 against the Vols. ETSU got 125 in Neyland. Based on all of that, I’m guessing UTEP will get maybe 125 yards rushing yards against Tennessee’s still-learning defense.

Tennessee passing

So far in 2018, Tennessee is averaging 198.0 passing yards per game, and UTEP is allowing 165.0. The Vols put up 224 against the Bucs and 172 against the Mountaineers, slightly more than their season average so far. My guess, then, is that Tennessee will end up with somewhere around 200 passing yards this weekend.

UTEP passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 249.0 passing yards per game so far this year, although they have West Virginia and Will Grier — who are averaging 382.5 passing yards per game through two games — on their resume. The Vols allowed only 69 to ETSU, which is now averaging 171.

UTEP is averaging only 125.0 passing yards per game so far this season, slightly less than the 134.9 they averaged in 2017.

Based on all of that, my expectation for the Vols’ passing defense in this game is that they’ll likely give up somewhere around 90 passing yards to UTEP.

Tennessee scoring

For what it’s worth, a 14-point game and a 59-point game gives Tennessee an average of 36.5 points per game this season. Their average last season was 19.8.

UTEP is currently allowing 41.0 points per game this season, a bit higher than their average of 36.8 last year.

The Vols scored 59 points against ETSU and 14 against West Virginia, which is allowing 15.5 points per game so far this year.

I think it’s probably safe to say that UTEP is closer to ETSU than West Virginia, so I’m going with an estimate of around 45 points against UTEP.

UTEP scoring

Tennessee is allowing 21.5 points per game so far in 2018. Last year, they allowed 29.1. Again, the variance is great when you consider ETSU and West Virginia were the two opponents.

UTEP’s offense is averaging 17.0 points per game this year after averaging 11.8 all of last year.

ETSU scored 28 points against Mars Hill but got only 3 against the Vols. The Mountaineers got 40 against Tennessee and then 52 against Youngstown State.

With that, I’m setting the expectation for UTEP’s points against the Vols at 10.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

So, I’m going with Vols 45, UTEP 10, a spread of -35.

The Vegas spread is between 30.5 and 31, with an over/under of 47-47.5, which converts to something like Tennessee 39, UTEP 8.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ gives the Vols a 98.8% chance of winning and spits out an expected score of 52.5-13.4, a spread of 39.1.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 98.4% chance of winning.

 

 

 

2018 college football TV schedule for Vols fans: Week 3

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

Honestly, there’s not much worth watching early this week. Boston College and Wake Forest play on Thursday on ESPN and Memphis hosts Georgia State on Friday on ESPN, but this would be a good week to do some other stuff you’ve been meaning to get done.

Gameday

Saturday, September 15, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON SLATE
UTEP Tennessee 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN Live Go Vols!
Murray State Kentucky 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN DVR Future Opponent
Vanderbilt No. 8 Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC DVR Future Opponent
AFTERNOON SLATE
No. 12 LSU No. 7 Auburn 3:30 PM CBS Channel Hop - 2 Top 25 Matchup
No. 17 Boise State No. 24 Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup
Colorado State Florida 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN Channel Hop - 1 Next Opponent
EVENING SLATE
No. 1 Alabama Ole Miss 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Future Opponent
Middle Tennessee No. 3 Georgia 7:15 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN Channel Hop Future Opponent
Missouri Purdue 7:30 PM BTN Channel Hop Future Opponent
No. 4 Ohio State No. 15 TCU 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup

 

The Vols have the noon slot this weekend, and if you’re interested in seeing a couple of future opponents in action, your DVR can handle the Kentucky-Murray State and Vanderbilt-Notre Dame games.

At 3:30, you have a decision to make: Watch either a Top 12 matchup between No. 12 LSU and No. 7 Auburn or do a little scouting of Tennessee’s next opponent, as Florida takes on Colorado State. Or you could just channel hop between them.

That evening, there’s an interesting Top 25 matchup between No. 4 Ohio State and No. 15 TCU and a couple of future opponents in action, so while away the night with the remote in hand.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
Wed Sep 12 Coastal Carolina Campbell 2:00 PM ESPN3
Thu Sep 13 Boston College Wake Forest 5:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Thu Sep 13 Tennessee Tech Utah State 8:00 PM
Fri Sep 14 Georgia State Memphis 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 15 UTEP Tennessee 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 15 Murray State Kentucky 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 15 Kent State No. 11 Penn State 12:00 PM FS1
Sat Sep 15 No. 21 Miami Toledo 12:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 15 No. 5 Oklahoma Iowa State 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 15 Ball State Indiana 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Sep 15 Florida State Syracuse 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 15 Hawai'i Army 12:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Sep 15 Rhode Island UConn 12:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Sep 15 Rutgers Kansas 12:00 PM
Sat Sep 15 Temple Maryland 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Sep 15 Troy Nebraska 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Sep 15 Georgia Tech Pittsburgh 12:30 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 15 Tulane UAB 1:00 PM
Sat Sep 15 UC Davis No. 9 Stanford 2:00 PM PAC12
Sat Sep 15 Vanderbilt No. 8 Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC
Sat Sep 15 No. 12 LSU No. 7 Auburn 3:30 PM CBS
Sat Sep 15 No. 17 Boise State No. 24 Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 15 BYU No. 6 Wisconsin 3:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 15 Georgia Southern No. 2 Clemson 3:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 15 SMU No. 19 Michigan 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Sep 15 Central Michigan Northern Illinois 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Sep 15 Duke Baylor 3:30 PM FS1
Sat Sep 15 Lehigh Navy 3:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Sep 15 Miami (OH) Minnesota 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Sep 15 South Florida Illinois 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Sep 15 Southern Mississippi Appalachian State 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Sep 15 Colorado State Florida 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 15 Eastern Kentucky Bowling Green 4:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Sep 15 North Texas Arkansas 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 15 UTSA Kansas State 4:00 PM
Sat Sep 15 Wofford Wyoming 4:00 PM
Sat Sep 15 Houston Texas Tech 4:15 PM FOX
Sat Sep 15 Ohio Virginia 4:30 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 15 San Jose State No. 20 Oregon 5:00 PM PAC12
Sat Sep 15 New Hampshire Colorado 5:00 PM PAC12
Sat Sep 15 Old Dominion Charlotte 6:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Sep 15 Bethune-Cookman Florida Atlantic 6:00 PM
Sat Sep 15 Eastern Michigan Buffalo 6:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Sep 15 Idaho State California 6:00 PM PAC12
Sat Sep 15 No. 1 Alabama Ole Miss 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 15 Alabama A&M Cincinnati 7:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Sep 15 Arkansas State Tulsa 7:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Sep 15 Delaware State Western Michigan 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Sep 15 Oregon State Nevada 7:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Sep 15 Texas State South Alabama 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Sep 15 Middle Tennessee No. 3 Georgia 7:15 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 15 Missouri Purdue 7:30 PM BTN
Sat Sep 15 Louisiana No. 16 Mississippi State 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 15 Akron Northwestern 7:30 PM BTN
Sat Sep 15 Marshall South Carolina 7:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 15 Northern Iowa Iowa 7:30 PM BTN
Sat Sep 15 UL Monroe Texas A&M 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 15 UMass Florida Intl 7:30 PM
Sat Sep 15 Western Kentucky Louisville 7:30 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 15 No. 4 Ohio State No. 15 TCU 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 15 No. 22 USC Texas 8:00 PM FOX
Sat Sep 15 Eastern Washington Washington State 8:00 PM PAC12
Sat Sep 15 New Mexico New Mexico State 8:00 PM
Sat Sep 15 No. 10 Washington Utah 10:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 15 Prairie View UNLV 10:00 PM
Sat Sep 15 No. 23 Arizona State San Diego State 10:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Sep 15 Fresno State UCLA 10:30 PM FS1
Sat Sep 15 Southern Utah Arizona 11:00 PM PAC12

Marquez Callaway and Number One Receivers

History suggested Tyson Helton would change the Vol passing attack, and we’ve seen it already in the first two games. Butch Jones’ offense targeted running backs more than any team in the SEC, essentially making the tailback the number three receiver. Not only has that changed dramatically in Helton’s offense – two catches for Tim Jordan, one for Jeremy Banks – a number one receiver has emerged in ways it never did in the last five years.

Marquez Callaway has 11 catches for 141 yards in the first two games. At this pace he’ll eclipse last season’s total – when he was the number one receiver in theory – by the end of the month (24 catches for 406 yards). And through the first two games, no other Vol has more than four receptions (Josh Palmer and Jordan Murphy).

We’ll see what happens with Jauan Jennings, the presumed top target going into last season and even this one by some. But so far, Callaway is the clear preference of Jarrett Guarantano. Sports Source Analytics has Callaway with seven catches for 115 yards (29th nationally) on first down, plus three for 15 and a pair of first downs on third down. The early returns show Callaway targeted early and often.

Callaway has 36.7% of Tennessee’s total receptions and 44% among wide receivers. We never saw percentages like those under Butch Jones:

Year Receiver #1 Catches Receiver #2 Catches
2017 Brandon Johnson 37 Marquez Callaway 24
2016 Josh Malone 50 Jauan Jennings 40
2015 Von Pearson 38 Josh Malone 31
2014 Pig Howard 54 Von Pearson 38
2013 Pig Howard 44 Marquez North 38

(Von Pearson played only 11 games in 2014)

You have to go back to the last two years under Derek Dooley to find true number one targets. Da’Rick Rogers easily stood out in 2011: 67 catches for 1,040 yards and nine touchdowns. The following year we remember Cordarrelle Patterson fondly, but many of his highlights were in the return game and on carries. Justin Hunter was easily the top target in the passing game with 73 catches for 1,083 yards to 46 for 778 for Patterson.

I’m not sure if this offense is built for Callaway to accumulate those kind of numbers. But he is clearly the number one option in an offense that’s going to receivers far more often than we’re used to. It’ll be interesting to see how his numbers change as defenses adjust to stop him, and if Guarantano can establish the same kind of rhythm with someone else. But through two games, Callaway is on track to be the kind of top target we haven’t seen in a long time.

 

Updated projected win totals for the Vols after Week 2

The Vols did what they had to do this weekend against an outmanned ETSU Buccaneers team, and you have to give them credit for taking care of business. To be sure, there are still several obvious issues and many unanswered questions, but much of the new data this week was positive and increased hope for the future to a degree.

Meanwhile, former Vols opponent West Virginia blew out Youngstown State, which is also a positive. It’s not much more so than what they were expected to do, though, so while it’s a net positive, it’s not much of one.

As far as future opponents go, UTEP confirmed its tune-up status, and Florida’s loss to Kentucky made it look vulnerable to decent competition. The Gamecocks proved that they’re not yet an elite SEC team, yet we still don’t know how much of a gap there is between them and the rest of the SEC East. The Kentucky Wildcats must be taken seriously, and everybody else pretty much did what you expected of them.

On balance, it wouldn’t be accurate to call it a rosy picture for the Vols moving forward into the 2018 season, but it is indeed better than it seemed to be after Week 1.

And with that, my new expected win total after Week 2 is 5.45. Use the form below to calculate yours and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated table of my expectations for the season:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

  • Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
  • Beat ETSU, 59-3
  • UTEP, 12:00 PM ET
  • Florida, TBD
  • #3 Georgia, TBD
  • #7 Auburn, TBD
  • #1 Alabama, TBD
  • S Carolina, TBD
  • Charlotte, TBD
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Vanderbilt, TBD

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 2-0 (0-0), 1st in Big 12

  • Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
  • Beat YSU, 52-17
  • NC State, 3:30 PM ET
  • Kansas St, TBD
  • Texas Tech, TBD
  • Kansas, TBD
  • Iowa State, TBD
  • Baylor, 7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1
  • Texas, TBD
  • #15 TCU, TBD
  • #24 Oklahoma St, TBD
  • #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 1-1 (0-0), 3rd in Southern

  • Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
  • Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
  • VMI, 1:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • Furman, 7:30 PM ET
  • Chattanooga, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • Gardner-Webb, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • The Citadel, 2:00 PM ET
  • Wofford, 1:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • W Carolina, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
  • Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-2 (0-0), 1st in C-USA – West

  • Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
  • Lost to UNLV, 52-24
  • Tennessee, 12:00 PM ET
  • New Mexico St, 7:30 PM ET
  • UTSA, 7:00 PM ET ESPN+
  • North Texas, 7:30 PM ET
  • LA Tech, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • UAB, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • Rice, 3:30 PM ET
  • Mid Tennessee, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
  • W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
  • Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+

Florida Gators

Current record: 1-1 (0-1), 3rd in SEC – East

  • Beat Charleston So, 53-6
  • Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
  • Colorado St, 4:00 PM ET
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • #16 Miss St, TBD
  • #12 LSU, TBD
  • Vanderbilt, TBD
  • #3 Georgia*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
  • Missouri, TBD
  • S Carolina, TBD
  • Idaho, TBD
  • Florida State, TBD

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 2-0 (1-0), 1st in SEC – East

  • Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
  • Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
  • Mid Tennessee, 7:15 PM ET
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Vanderbilt, TBD
  • #12 LSU, TBD
  • Florida*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • #7 Auburn, TBD
  • UMass, TBD
  • Georgia Tech, TBD

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 2-0 (0-0), 1st in SEC – West

  • Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
  • Beat Alabama St, 63-9
  • #12 LSU, 3:30 PM ET CBS
  • Arkansas, TBD
  • Southern Miss, TBD
  • #16 Miss St, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • Texas A&M, TBD
  • #3 Georgia, TBD
  • Liberty, TBD
  • #1 Alabama, TBD

Big game coming up for Auburn this week as they take on #12 LSU. We’ll know a lot more about them after that.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 2-0 (0-0), 1st in SEC – West

  • Beat Louisville*, 51-14
  • Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
  • Ole Miss, 7:00 PM ET
  • Texas A&M, TBD
  • Louisiana, TBD
  • Arkansas, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • #12 LSU, TBD
  • #16 Miss St, TBD
  • The Citadel, TBD
  • #7 Auburn, TBD

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 1-1 (0-1), 3rd in SEC – East

  • Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
  • Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
  • Marshall, 7:30 PM ET
  • Vanderbilt, TBD
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Texas A&M, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • Florida, TBD
  • Chattanooga, TBD
  • #2 Clemson, TBD

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 1-1 (0-0), 2nd in C-USA – East

  • Beat Fordham, 34-10
  • Lost to App St, 45-9
  • Old Dominion, 6:00 PM ET
  • UMass, 3:30 PM ET
  • UAB, TBD
  • W Kentucky, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • Mid Tennessee, 3:00 PM ET
  • Southern Miss, 2:00 PM ET
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Marshall, 2:30 PM ET ESPN+
  • FIU, 2:00 PM ET
  • FAU, 6:00 PM ET

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-0 (1-0), 1st in SEC – East

  • Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
  • Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
  • Murray State, 12:00 PM ET
  • #16 Miss St, TBD
  • S Carolina, TBD
  • Texas A&M, TBD
  • Vanderbilt, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • #3 Georgia, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Mid Tennessee, TBD
  • Louisville, TBD

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 2-0 (0-0), 3rd in SEC – East

  • Beat UT Martin, 51-14
  • Beat Wyoming, 40-13
  • Purdue, 7:30 PM ET BTN
  • #3 Georgia, TBD
  • S Carolina, TBD
  • #1 Alabama, TBD
  • Memphis, TBD
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Florida, TBD
  • Vanderbilt, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD
  • Arkansas, 2:30 PM ET CBS

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-0 (0-0), 3rd in SEC – East

  • Beat Mid Tennessee, 35-7
  • Beat Nevada, 41-10
  • #8 Notre Dame, 2:30 PM ET NBC
  • S Carolina, TBD
  • Tennessee St, TBD
  • #3 Georgia, TBD
  • Florida, TBD
  • Kentucky, TBD
  • Arkansas, TBD
  • Missouri, TBD
  • Ole Miss, TBD
  • Tennessee, TBD

Sunday Best: Humble — But Obvious — Beginnings for the Vols vs. ETSU

Editor’s note:  With my esteemed colleagues taking care of the heavy postgame lifting as I’m handling my national college football obligations on Saturday, I wanted to do something a little different. Each Sunday from now through the end of the year, we’ll take a last look at the game before, pointing out some positives as we move through the various phases of the Jeremy Pruitt rebuild.

We’ll call it Sunday Best. Hope you guys enjoy…

***

A lot of times throughout life, we’re not put in ideal situations. But you try to get through them, put your trust in the right place and endure. The fervent hope is that you’ll get stronger because of the trials and, some day, you’ll be rewarded for the work you did in the face of them.

If you’re a believer, this should sound familiar.

If you’re a Tennessee fan, you should try to look at the 2018 season in the same frame of mind.

Those playing and coaching and cheering on the Vols through what looks like yet another rebuilding campaign don’t want to be here. Don’t you think all those kids in orange and white wish they were dominant and winning games week-in and week-out? Don’t you know somebody used to championships like Pruitt has a hard time accepting that this year’s roster is nothing like the ones he coached at Alabama, Georgia and Florida State? And, of course, we all want to recapture the glory days.

Those ain’t coming in ’18.

But, you know what? That’s OK. We all need to hope that we’re building something that will last, finding playmakers, improving from week to week and that somewhere, along the way, we’ll be stronger for it. For the Vols, hopefully that will materialize not only in the growth of the players and the growing number of dependable guys on the roster, but also in the win column.

We talked about finding out where we were starting from last week after the 40-14 loss to West Virginia, even if that starting point wasn’t where we wanted. Will talked about gaining another data point yesterday after the 59-3 shellacking of ETSU.

I want to talk about the steady improvement we want to see and what we saw. Yes, we could harp all day on the struggles of the offensive line and how a pass-rush [or lack of one] against SEC opponents will get you crushed. Both of those things are true, but if we choose to talk about those, we forget the positives, and this year should be about enjoying wins when they come and accentuating the positives when they do, too.

There won’t be as many of both as we’d like, but we need to open our eyes and actually acknowledge them when they come.

I know the level of opponent downgraded significantly from West Virginia to ETSU, but I tried to view Saturday through the lens of “just us.” Just look at Tennessee and look for improvement, look for growth, look for development. I saw plenty. If the Vols progressively improve each week throughout the year as much as they did from Week 1 to Week 2, we’ll be happy with the end-of-the-season final product, even if we’re not happy with the final record.

The defense played faster, more aggressive and corralled several game-changing plays such as Darrin Kirkland’s pick-six and Bryce Thompson’s athletic defensive presence. Offensively, the O-line was a disaster, yes, but if you weren’t encouraged by several individual performances, you’re too hard to please.

We saw exactly what we needed to see from a game against the FCS Buccaneers. There was no way we could cure all ills yesterday, and we didn’t, but we saw that it perhaps won’t be as bad as we thought. Let’s take a look at some of Sunday’s Best:

  • Thompson followed fellow freshman Alontae Taylor’s Week 1 performance by having his own show-up-and-show-out spot against ETSU. The freshman cornerback finished with four tackles, including two for a loss, an interception and a pass breakup. He was all over the field and displayed speed and athleticism that UT lacks on the back end. The only bad thing was he started in Taylor’s place; not Baylen Buchanan’s. Once Thompson and Taylor can be trusted to be on the field at the same time, the Vols will realize their most athletic defensive backfield.
  • Junior college defensive lineman Emmit Gooden led the team with eight tackles and a sack. The late addition to Pruitt’s class has two years to play in Knoxville and is already better than any other defensive lineman. He’s an encouraging building block for the remainder of this season and for the future.
  • If you aren’t excited about the wide receiving corps and the emerging weapons, you’re too hard to please. Marquez Callaway is off to a red-hot start, and he looks like one of the league’s top receivers. Toss in the emergence of Jordan Murphy and Josh Palmer, and the Vols have some weapons on the perimeter. Murphy’s camp is paying off with some big plays in the season, and Palmer looks more confident and a step faster than he did at any point last season. Most importantly, he’s catching the football.
  • Tim Jordan is a good, solid back, and we haven’t even seen Ty Chandler truly unleashed yet. But Jeremy Banks is a load to bring down, and he’s exactly the kind of running back the Vols have been missing since Montario Hardesty. He is a violent runner who hits the hole with authority and finishes runs. It’s not a stretch to say UT’s most assertive running back is its youngest, and Pruitt already praises his leadership ability. He could be a special piece to this puzzle. Banks already may be my favorite player on this team.
  • Theo Jackson and Shawn Shamburger weren’t always in the right places Saturday, but they too [like Thompson and Taylor] upgrade the athleticism in the secondary, so this was a step toward them proving their value to the coaches. The simple fact is the Vols need better athletes in the secondary than Buchanan and Micah Abernathy. It’s up to those guys to step up.
  • Finally, there are reasons to remain encouraged about Jarrett Guarantano and to feel good about Keller Chryst, too. With the O-line issues, both likely will be relied on throughout the year. Neither is dynamic and both have limitations, but they don’t look like the kind of signal-callers who’ll get you beat. We’ll see in two weeks against Florida.

Next week, Tennessee gets another patsy in UTEP. Boy, the Miners are awful, so we won’t know a whole lot about the development of the team then, either. But what we can see is blossoming confidence, important reps and opportunities to improve.

Somebody said to me yesterday in the midst of that ugly start: “Man, this offensive line and pass rush won’t cut it. If this was an SEC team, we’d be getting killed.”

To which I replied, “Good thing it isn’t. One of those doesn’t come for another couple of weeks. We’ve got more time to marinate.”

By the time the hated [and also flawed] Florida Gators come to town, who knows what kind of team we’ll be?

If things go the way they have so far, we’ll be better than we were this week.