Category Archives: Football

Will, Brad, and I all seem to be in agreement about what to draw from the Vols’ loss to Georgia this week, namely that it was a reminder of how far we still have to go but also positive progress. Meanwhile, some future opponents looked more beatable and some less.

My new expected win total after Week 5 is 4.9, up from 4.55 last week, but still down from 5.5 the week prior to that.

I have Alabama still at 5%, Auburn down to 25% (from 15%), Kentucky steady at 25%, South Carolina back to 40% (from 25% last week), Missouri steady at 40%, Vanderbilt down to 60% (from 50%), and Charlotte steady at 95%.

Use the form below to calculate yours and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

• Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
• Beat ETSU, 59-3
• Beat UTEP, 24-0
• Lost to Florida, 47-21
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
• #9 Auburn, TBD
• #1 Alabama, TBD
• S Carolina, TBD
• Charlotte, TBD
• Kentucky, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 4-0 (2-0), 1st in Big 12

• Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
• Beat YSU, 52-17
• NC State, Canceled
• Beat Kansas St, 35-6
• Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
• Kansas, TBD
• Iowa State, TBD
• Baylor, 7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1
• Texas, TBD
• #17 TCU, TBD
• #15 Oklahoma St, TBD
• #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 4-1 (3-0)

• Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
• Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
• Beat VMI, 27-24
• Beat Furman, 29-27
• Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
• Gardner-Webb, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• The Citadel, 2:00 PM ET
• Wofford, 1:30 PM ET ESPN+
• W Carolina, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-5 (0-1), 2nd in C-USA – West

• Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
• Lost to UNLV, 52-24
• Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
• Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
• Lost to UTSA, 30-21
• North Texas, 7:30 PM ET
• LA Tech, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• UAB, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
• Rice, 3:30 PM ET
• MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
• Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+

Florida Gators

Current record: 4-1 (2-1), 2nd in SEC – East

• Beat Charleston So, 53-6
• Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
• Beat Colorado St, 48-10
• Beat Tennessee, 47-21
• Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
• #6 LSU, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• #2 Georgia*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
• Missouri, TBD
• S Carolina, TBD
• Idaho, TBD
• Florida State, TBD

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 5-0 (3-0), 1st in SEC – East

• Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
• Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
• Beat MTSU, 49-7
• Beat Missouri, 43-29
• Beat Tennessee, 38-12
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• #6 LSU, TBD
• Florida*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
• Kentucky, TBD
• #9 Auburn, TBD
• UMass, TBD
• Georgia Tech, TBD

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 4-1 (1-1), 2nd in SEC – West

• Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
• Beat Alabama St, 63-9
• Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
• Beat Arkansas, 34-3
• Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
• #14 Miss St, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• #22 Texas A&M, TBD
• #2 Georgia, TBD
• Liberty, TBD
• #1 Alabama, TBD

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 5-0 (2-0), 1st in SEC – West

• Beat Louisville*, 51-14
• Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
• Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
• Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
• Beat Louisiana, 56-14
• Arkansas, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• #6 LSU, TBD
• #14 Miss St, TBD
• The Citadel, TBD
• #9 Auburn, TBD

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-2 (1-2), 3rd in SEC – East

• Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
• Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
• Marshall, Canceled
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
• Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
• Missouri, TBD
• #22 Texas A&M, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Chattanooga, TBD
• #3 Clemson, TBD

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 2-3 (1-1), 2nd in C-USA – East

• Beat Fordham, 34-10
• Lost to App St, 45-9
• Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
• Lost to UMass, 49-31
• Lost to UAB, 28-7
• W Kentucky, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• MTSU, 3:00 PM ET
• Southern Miss, 2:00 PM ET
• Tennessee, TBD
• Marshall, 2:30 PM ET ESPN+
• FIU, 2:00 PM ET
• FAU, 6:00 PM ET

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 5-0 (3-0), 1st in SEC – East

• Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
• Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
• Beat Murray State, 48-10
• Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
• Beat S Carolina, 24-10
• #22 Texas A&M, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• #2 Georgia, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• MTSU, TBD
• Louisville, TBD

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 3-1 (0-1), 5th in SEC – East

• Beat UT Martin, 51-14
• Beat Wyoming, 40-13
• Beat Purdue, 40-37
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
• S Carolina, TBD
• #1 Alabama, TBD
• Memphis, TBD
• Kentucky, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• Arkansas, 2:30 PM ET CBS

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 3-2 (0-1), 5th in SEC – East

• Beat MTSU, 35-7
• Beat Nevada, 41-10
• Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
• Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
• Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
• #2 Georgia, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Kentucky, TBD
• Arkansas, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD

Last year my wife and I brought our firstborn home from the hospital the day Tennessee played Georgia, the best of all ways to not be thinking about the game. “Did we really fumble it right back to them? Hey, he peed on the floor!” But from there, I’d imagine your October and November with the Vols were a little like mine no matter what ages you had at home: outcomes a little blurry, details inconsequential, lots of losing and little hope.

Yesterday friends and family gathered round to celebrate our son’s first birthday in the morning, then watch the Georgia game at 3:30. It seemed like another well-timed teacher of perspective. And we were all, spoken or unspoken, afraid of the same thing happening to the Vols again. Not the result, which seemed automatic with Tennessee at +32.5. But the outcome: a we’re-so-bad-none-of-this-matters hopelessness.

Tennessee made it matter. Right now, that’s a win.

It wasn’t simply in beating Vegas or playing better than last year against this particular opponent. The 2017 version featured not only a shutout but, far worse, 2.73 yards per play from the Vol offense. This time around Tennessee averaged 4.54. Not great, but it had a pulse. As has been the case since the West Virginia game, this is a theme for 2018: far from excellent, but capable of competence (when not turning it over six times).

Heart failure was a major concern coming in: new coach not used to losing, brutal loss to your most relevant rival last week, players sent to the locker room, uh oh. We’ve been staring down the oncoming train of this particular gauntlet for a long time. If what happened last year happened again this year, we wouldn’t have liked it but we might’ve understood it. And, as was the case when the calendar turned to October last year, the rest of the season would have been about next season.

But Tennessee showed heart on both sides of the ball, particularly on defense. They got little help from an offense that ran only 42 plays before Jeremy Banks fumbled with less than four minutes to go. The Vols seem committed to running the football, even if they’re not running it particularly well: Jarrett Guarantano remains fourth among SEC quarterbacks in yards per attempt (8.6), but the Vols are still last in the league in attempts (21.2 per game). Tennessee runs it almost literally twice as much as they throw it (211-106).

And this answer, like many things with this team, may simply come back to what they believe about the offensive line. Guarantano stayed relatively clean on Saturday – another big win – but you still feel nervous every time we don’t run. The gameplan for a while felt like Lane Kiffin’s against Urban Meyer when the Vols were 30-point underdogs on the road in 2009, with a quarterback we thought was fragile behind patchwork offensive line. Tennessee leaned on its defense, which worked to prevent big plays, and took few chances on the offensive end. Keep it close, and keep everyone – players, fans, etc. – invested.

It worked, eventually, in 2009. And it seemed to work this week too.

And it’s really selling our defense short to say they just worked to prevent big plays. In the run game, if you take out Isaac Nauta’s 31-yard gift with our defense in pass coverage, Georgia averaged 4.4 yards per carry. The only defenses to hold them to less than that the last two years: Notre Dame, Auburn (the first time), and Alabama. It’s a full day even trying to slow down Georgia’s run game. The Vol defense put in a full day’s work.

Speaking of heart, you’ll probably see what you want to see out of this:

“We’ve got fight in us.”

Jeremy Pruitt was asked what he learned about his team today. His response evoked emotion we haven’t seen from the head coach since he arrived at Tennessee. #Vols pic.twitter.com/JRvjIcKVAK

— Marc Whiteman (@MarcWhiteman) September 29, 2018

…but regardless of whatever way you lean on coach emotion, etc., the Vols had already proven Pruitt’s point before he got choked up. I’m not in the locker room to see it behind the scenes, but you saw it on the field yesterday.

So far, the Vols are better than they were last year. That part you can back up statistically, but we’re aiming for a higher bar than that. Given the opportunity to write themselves off, or be written off by the number two team in the country, Tennessee’s heart is instead still beating. Six wins still feels like an uphill climb, but the Vols still have their hands on the rope. Just as important, the Vols are still relatively healthy. Brandon Kennedy’s loss was obviously unhelpful, and one hopes Marquez Callaway can get out of concussion protocol by the Auburn game. But on the whole, Tennessee seems largely intact in mind, body, and quarterback.

Alabama, of course, is still to come; we all know what we’re getting into there. But the rest feels a little less known today. Auburn, despite their persistence in the Top 10, could drift slowly toward “trap game” territory in the next two weeks. Kentucky is in the Top 15 in both the polls and S&P+. I don’t know.

I don’t know about Tennessee either. But on a day when many were worried about us being put out of our misery on the last weekend of September, the Vols showed signs of life. It’s enough to get us through the bye week, and send us to Auburn with a spark. I don’t know if it’ll catch fire. But I’m eager to find out. Hope remains valuable around these parts. And while it may have gone to Athens to die, it came back to Knoxville alive.

Go Vols.

 

We all got through the moral victories phase long ago, so it’s hard to come out of the second-consecutive 26-point loss feeling anything warm-and-fuzzy about the Vols.

This year isn’t going to go like any of us hoped, and we’re just going to have to deal with that.

But, despite being overmatched and despite not getting Georgia’s best effort in what resulted in a 38-12 loss in Athens on Saturday, there were some definite positives if you’re looking through your orange-colored glasses. There were players who responded after last week’s six-turnover fiasco in a disastrous loss to Florida. There was fight all the way to the end when UGA did what it was supposed to do and took a Tennessee turnover and tacked on a shove-it score.

Jeremy Pruitt was almost defiant afterward, standing up for his players and getting emotional about just how far the program has come under him. Yes, the Vols are 2-3 with difficult games against Auburn, Alabama and South Carolina following the bye week, and yes, making a bowl game still looks like a glimmering light far in the distance, but the strides are still evident.

I’ve preached so many times already this season that we’ve got to take pride in the strides, and that is so hard to do when you’re not overly competitive with your rivals. But we still need to. I think it’s becoming quite clear just how far away we are from a talent perspective.

Georgia big-boyed us on that final touchdown drive before the turnover tack-on, and that was tough to see for a team that wanted — maybe even needed — the good vibes that come with keeping it respectable on the scoreboard. But, until then, Tennessee traded punches pretty well.

Take this into consideration: Seven of Georgia’s points came on a fluke fumble recovery by Isaac Nauta after Nauta missed his block on Darrell Taylor, who stripped Jake Fromm of the ball. Nauta picked up the ball and raced 31 yards for the game’s first score.

When the Vols finally put the ball on the ground at the end of the game, UGA marched right down and scored then, too.

But if you take away those two bad bounces/mistakes, UT was schematically fine, at least on defense. It’s very encouraging to see how well Taylor rushed the passer, forcing two fumbles and registering a sack. It was great to see sophomore Will Ignont flying around out there, and though he had a couple of run fits that will hurt his grade in final film study, he’s the type of athlete the Vols need on the second level, and he’s developing.

At times throughout Saturday’s game, Tennessee had three true freshmen playing together in the secondary in Bryce Thompson, Alontae Taylor and Trevon Flowers, and those guys are getting more dependable, too.

The defensive line isn’t great, but they’re making strides. The massive chunk-yardage plays the Vols were allowing a year ago aren’t as frequent anymore, and within the framework of drives, UT was strong, riding the ebbs and flows and getting off the field against a superior team.

Sure, Georgia wound up laying the hammer down, but it was more of situation of being gassed rather than outclassed.

It’s easy to see where the maturity needs to come. Offensively, I’m still frustrated with Tyson Helton’s play-calling, and I’m not excited about Pruitt’s decision to punt near midfield late in the game still down multiple scores. At that point, you gamble because you need to try to win. It was almost as if he was content to keep it close, and that’s not the killer instinct you want. The decision to go for two after the second touchdown was puzzling too, but that’s understandable, and it’s erring on the side of aggression, which will always get you a free pass with me. Those were snafus from which he’ll grow, and, like his team, he’s learning on the fly, too.

Jarrett Guarantano’s toughness is evident, and though he still isn’t where he needs to be, he’s getting better. I thought the offensive line was much better at times against Georgia, even though the running game still struggled to get traction. Ty Chandler in space is something we need to see more of; and it’s disappointing that he only got five carries and five catches. To beat teams like UGA, you must get the ball in your playmakers’ hands, and Helton has to do a better job of that.

Scheming around the inefficiencies of the offensive line hamstrings Helton and UT’s offense, and until that improves dramatically, we’re all going to be frustrated with the results.

But the best thing coming out of Saturday is we aren’t the team that laid an egg against Florida. If that’s our identity, we were going to be watching the worst Tennessee team in school history, and it’s encouraging to see the Vols clean up some of the mistakes, even if there are reams more to fix.

Looking ahead, this team isn’t hopeless for 2018, and I’m very encouraged by the groundwork being laid for the future. It will take two recruiting classes, but the defense will ultimately continue to improve. The Vols must get better offensive playmakers, but, again, that can be fixed by recruiting. Helton needs to get in a better groove and earn his money, but that also should be better with better players. (Doesn’t that cure all?)

We know two things about this year’s Vols: 1) we can’t afford to make mistakes like turnovers and penalties because we aren’t good enough to give anybody extra possessions and win, but 2) when we don’t make those mistakes, we’ll be in football games because they’re well-coached and well-prepared, even if they’re not well-equipped from an athlete standpoint to hang with the elites.

Kentucky looks like a difficult game, but it’s not unwinnable. While Missouri looks like a matchup nightmare because of its passing game, the Vols could be much-improved by then. There’s also no reason right now to mark off the Auburn, South Carolina or Vanderbilt off the list now. The Tigers have some issues, and though the Vols will be double-digit underdogs, it could help to have an extra week to prepare. South Carolina has better talent, too, but the Gamecocks have underachieved.

Six wins still seems like a long ways away, but it’s not impossible. Last week, I thought it was impossible.

That may be the smallest inkling of hope, but at least it’s some. This Tennessee team is beginning to learn how to play football the right way, and even though it won’t always do it, we’re starting to see the Vols being in position to make plays on defense and hitting a few things downfield on offense.

If you can’t see Pruitt’s passion for this team and this program, you’re not looking hard enough. This year is tough on us all, but it’s toughest on him and the players. Let’s just keep watching them improve. Maybe, by the end of the year, it will show in the win column.

If not, at least the frustration of building a foundation will be over.

The Tennessee Volunteers were still into the game well into the fourth quarter this afternoon but ultimately gave way to the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs, 38-12.

The game got off to a typically ominous start for Tennessee when Darrell Taylor sacked Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm on third-and-9 and caused him to fumble. The two most likely outcomes of a play like that are a Tennessee guy falling on the ball or a Georgia guy falling on the ball and the Bulldogs settling for a field goal attempt. Instead, the ball bounced right into the hands of Georgia tight end Isaac Nauta, who ran 31 yards for a touchdown. Of course.

Tennessee’s offense wasn’t exactly stymied in the first half, but they certainly stalled out without anything to show for it and were scoreless in the first half. Similarly, the defense was doing some good things but wasn’t exactly keeping Georgia from gaining yards. They forced a couple of punts and held the Bulldogs to a field goal before finally giving up the game’s first earned touchdown late in the first half. The teams went to the locker room with Georgia leading 17-0.

Georgia opened the second half with a touchdown, making the score 24-0 and threatening to runaway with it like we’d all feared, but Tennessee put together a 10-play, 75-yard drive on its first possession of the second half, capped by a 37-yard touchdown pass from Jarrett Guarantano to Josh Palmer.

In the most interesting part of the game, the Tennessee defense then held, the offense punted, and the defense held again, and then the Vols added another touchdown when Guarantano hooked up with Ty Chandler for a 35-yard touchdown.

At that point, it was a 12-point game (Georgia 24, Tennessee 12) with 11:10 to go in the fourth quarter. The Vols had the last two scores and its defense had forced two short drives that ended in punts for Georgia. But the Bulldogs sealed the game on their next possession with a 13-play, 75-yard drive that drained 7:39 off the clock, and that was the end of that.

A fumble by running back Jeremy Banks on Tennessee’s next play signaled the beginning of garbage time, as it gave Georgia a short field, another touchdown, and a final score of 38-12.

The bad

Even though the outcome of the game was in doubt for a longer period of time than anticipated, it was clear to both the eye and the box score that Georgia was the much better team and it was still another 26-point loss for the Vols. Georgia had 25 first downs to Tennessee’s 11, and they had 410 total yards to the Vols’ 209.

The Vols still started slow, still found themselves victim to The Weirdness, and still made several crucial mistakes. Marquez Callaway going out with an apparent concussion is very bad news for him and for the team as well. Also, there’s at least one guy in the secondary who appears to be actively avoiding contact.

The good

On the other hand, this is what the team looks like when they’re not turning the ball over an unnatural six times in a single game, and although it’s not yet up to standards, it’s not embarrassing. The guys appeared to be tougher. There was more falling forward, gaining a couple of yards at the end of a play rather than losing a couple. The offense scored some points against a terrific defense, and the defense held Georgia to a respectable 31 points until garbage time.

There’s still a lot of work to do, and there are still several challenging weeks ahead, but you can see the glimmers of something good beginning to take shape.

That video of Vols defensive coordinator Chris Rumph (starting at 13:59) talking about why he does what he does is one of my all-time favorite things. I’ve tried (and usually failed) many times to explain to friends and family that one of the reasons I love college football is that it’s simultaneously just a game and not just a game. Rumph gets at the same notion when he says that football is about life. It’s not just about tackling and sacks and the obvious football stuff, it’s also about who you are becoming while you’re doing what you’re doing.

To Rumph, his primary purpose isn’t to teach football but to disciple and mentor kids, and football is merely the context through which he does it.

That there is something underneath the surface of football that makes it even more special resonates with me as a fan. As much as I enjoy the games and everything that comes with them, I also beam with pride when I see evidence of the guys growing up before the cameras and the crowds. Call me a sap, I don’t care. The game and the media and the crowd can at times deliver some particularly cruel blows to these college kids, and I cheer every time they get back up, weather the storm, and get back to work chasing their dreams, stronger in life for the lessons they’ve learned on the field.

College football is great and fun on the surface, but it’s the below-the-surface stuff that keeps me coming back even when things aren’t going well on the field. It’s a bitter pill, but the truth is that sometimes – for players, fans, people in general – you grow more as a person when the results you’ve been striving and hoping for leave you disappointed. And the perseverance and determination make the success, when it comes, that much sweeter.

So, yeah. It’s not just about tackling and sacks and all the football stuff; it’s also about who you are becoming while you’re doing what you’re doing.

The fan experience

That truth applies to a multitude of contexts other than playing football, too, including merely watching people play football. I love the gamedays and the gameweeks and the moments and the winning when it comes, but often, when the appeal of those things wanes, I look underneath the surface for something to learn.

Suffice it to say, over the next month or so we Vols fans are going to have a lot of opportunities to learn some non-football stuff.

You can’t preempt pain

One of the things I’ve already learned over the course of 13 years of service as a long-suffering Vols fan blogging about the team is that you simply cannot dull pain just by bracing for it.

It’s not like we haven’t tried. As I said just a little over a month ago when anticipating this season’s mistakes, we often tell ourselves in advance of what we know will be challenging seasons that X number of wins is a reasonable expectation. We stoically brace for a loss before the game but then become enraged when we actually witness in real time the maddening details that contribute to that loss.

You can’t avoid the pain just by imagining it beforehand. You just can’t. You have to experience it.

Rumph would be quick to point out that this is as true in life as it is on the football field and in the stands. And one can help prepare you for the other. Pardon a brief digression into the personal while I explain.

Non-football stuff

Have you ever had to put a pet down? I have. It was a difficult but rational decision to conclude that we no longer had a choice but to relieve our beloved dog Oreo of her misery a couple of years ago. And yet I was totally unraveled by the details when the day came to actually do it. I hadn’t imagined standing over her whispering “You’re a good dog, you’re a good dog” over and over into her ear as her body relaxed on the table. I was prepared, but not for that.

Have you ever had a loved one on hospice? I knew my mom was going to lose her battle with cancer last year, but knowing it afforded no protection from the torment of the process. I was still completely undone sitting beside her, attempting to sing her favorite songs with a broken voice, wondering which of those difficult breaths would be her last. Knowing that day would come didn’t make it easier.

I dwelled on all of this last Sunday afternoon as I sat alone in an unsold tailgating chair in my Kingsport store after turning out the lights. I’d already known this past summer that the day would almost certainly come this fall that we’d have to close it down for good. I was at peace with knowing the time was approaching. But it didn’t actually happen until last weekend, and it sucked.

Life is going to throw you a bunch of crap in a variety of contexts, whether it’s something as serious as the loss of a loved one or something more trivial like watching your favorite sports team lose in spectacular new ways.

And even if you take the time to anticipate and prepare for the pain – in life, on the football field, in the stands –you can’t fully comprehend it until it comes time to experience it.

That’s the bad news, but there’s also good news: Anticipating and preparing for bad news and bad days can help you survive it, and when it’s over, you’ll be better for it.

Back to football

As I said earlier, football is just a game, and yet it’s also more than just a game. It’s about practicing and playing and cheering, and it’s about wins and losses and all of that other surface football stuff, yes. But it’s also about the underneath stuff, who we’re becoming while we’re doing what we’re doing. What we’re doing here is rooting for the Vols. It’s a relatively unimportant activity. But what important things might we learn while doing it?

By all accounts, the rebuilding Tennessee football team is headed for some potentially very bad days over the next month or so. No amount of knowing it, expecting it, or planning for it will shield us from the misery. It’s going to hurt. Absent some miracle (or just checking out as a fan), there’s no way around that.

What can we do about it? Hold on. Steel your resolve. Assume the crash position. Put a phonebook in your pants. Do whatever you need to do to get ready for a rough ride.

It’s not going to be fun, but better days await on the other side.

And when it’s finally over, we might just be stronger, wiser, and better for it.

For when it’s really important.

Ready?

Steady.

Go.

(This is a real list!)

It’s not easy to measure progress when you’ve taken a pair of 26-point losses to teams you talked yourself into beating leading up to game week. It’s only Friday, but I don’t think many of us are talking ourselves into much against Georgia. But it’s also possible – especially after a six-turnover performance – to swing too hard the other way.

It may feel like baby steps, but so far this team does a couple things really well, especially compared to their predecessors.

Third Down Defense

Let’s start with the most straightforward way to understand it: the Vols allow a conversion on 24.5% of opponent attempts (stats from Sports Source Analytics). That’s currently sixth-best in the nation. Last year the Vols allowed conversions on 45.2% of opponent attempts, 113th nationally.

But there’s more. What caught my eye on this stat was Bill Connelly’s advanced statistical profiles, where Tennessee is currently first in the country in defending third-and-medium.

We charted every one of the 49 third downs against the Vol defense this season. Jeremy Pruitt’s troops have allowed a dozen conversions. Five of them were in the second half of the West Virginia game. Tennessee hasn’t been great at stopping third-and-short: teams are 6-of-9 when needing three yards or less on third down. The Vols are 83rd nationally in Connelly’s categorization of thid-and-short.

But once it gets to 3rd-and-4+, it’s been a very different story. The Vols have allowed first downs on just 6-of-40 (15%) attempts of 3rd-and-4+. One of those was in garbage time on the final drive last week.

Tennessee may not be built to handle third-and-short right now, but they’ve done an excellent job so far handling everything else, especially when not facing West Virginia’s offense.

Explosive Plays in the Passing Game

As you’ve probably heard, Tennessee already has more plays of 50+ yards (six) in four games than they had all of last season (four). Five of those have come via the passing game, plus Ty Chandler’s run against UTEP. Only Hawaii, with the benefit of an extra game in week zero, has more 50+ yard passing plays so far this year; the Vols are tied with five other teams for second nationally.

What’s most impressive about that: Tennessee has only attempted 85 passes this year, 115th nationally.

Here are the SEC leaders in adjusted completion percentage on throws 10+ yards downfield: pic.twitter.com/2tvNLuCg2N

— CFB Film Room (@CFBFilmRoom) September 27, 2018

The Vols do indeed run the ball a lot, and I worry about our quarterback getting hit every single time we don’t. But when he gets it off, Guarantano has been pretty good at getting the most out of his attempts. He is currently fourth among SEC quarterbacks and 20th nationally at 9.1 yards per attempt. The bad news: Jake Fromm is third (10.7), and Tua Tagovailoa is first at…12.9? Get out of here with that. (Fulmerized).

These numbers, like many other things for Tennessee, may go south the next few weeks. But in the first four games, we may have also seen enough to suggest some truth here that might show up in November. And they are significant steps of progress from last year, even in the middle of a frustrating start in the win column.

I have never felt the way I did sitting in Neyland Stadium last week. Ever. It was a hopeless, helpless feeling. Being competitive feels so far away as everything fell apart in what wound up being a 47-21 loss to Florida.

I didn’t even see the last touchdown because I left early for just the third time in all the years, all the games I’ve been to. I was disgusted and disgruntled. And here’s the thing: It’s likely going to be worse this week. It probably will be worse against Auburn. It absolutely will be cringe-worthy worse against Alabama.

We’re fans, though. We’ve got to suck it up and hope. This weekend, the Vols head to Athens where they are more than 31-point underdogs. That’s unfathomable to me, especially considering we’re just a couple years removed from this game traditionally being decided by a score or less.

But things have changed. UGA is one of the top teams in the nation, coming into this tilt with the Vols ranked No. 2. Kirby Smart is recruiting as well as anybody in the nation. Not only is it going to hurt seeing former 5-star commitment Cade Mays playing in the red and black, he’s starting and shining as a true freshman.

It’s enough to make you sick, on top of everything else.

Nobody expects Tennessee to be anywhere near in this game, so — look on the bright side — if the Vols come out and surprise everybody, it could make us feel much better about the direction of the season.

Again, though, don’t expect it. Not this week.

KEYS

Stop the slow

I know that every week this is on the list, and it will be until the Vols stop it. They absolutely cannot get off to a slow start every week; they aren’t good enough to overcome it.

Against West Virginia, the Mountaineers punched them in the mouth right away, and UT never recovered. Against two awful teams in ETSU and UTEP, the Vols sputtered at the front. Then, against the Gators, UT turned the football over on the first two possessions, watched Florida convert them into touchdowns, and it was never close.

Shawn Shamburger even fumbled the second half’s opening kickoff leading to a one-play Gators scoring drive, proving that there’s something about layoffs that is killing the Vols.

Jeremy Pruitt must do something about that. If it happens this week, the Dawgs will blow them out of Samford Stadium.

Squeaky clean

Say what you want about last weekend’s embarrassment, and there’s plenty to say about how thoroughly ugly it was. But UT turned the ball over six — SIX!!!! — times.

The Vols literally handed Florida 28 points on a silver platter. Two of Jarrett Guarantano’s turnovers were directly turned into touchdowns. Shamburger’s second-half special teams blunder led to another touchdown. Then, we won’t soon forget Austin Pope fumbling through the end zone on another would-be score for the Vols.

That’s 21 points for Florida and -7 points for the Vols.

Tennessee lost by 26.

You do the math.

The Vols aren’t good enough to overcome those mistakes. Against a team like Georgia, the Bulldogs will make things ugly quickly if it continues. Tennessee has to take care of the ball.

Keep Guarantano clean, too

There’s nothing wrong with the way redshirt sophomore Guarantano has played this year. Those calling for somebody else to start are being ridiculous.

But he still hangs onto the ball too long, and he still gets shaky when defenders are breathing down his neck. Yes, Guarantano is a super-tough kid, but he also isn’t the biggest quarterback, and Cece Jefferson knocked him out of the UF game [albeit with a cheap shot]. The Vols can’t afford to A) get him hurt or B) let him operate under as much duress as he has so far.

Guarantano needs to do a better job of moving the pocket, and if offensive coordinator Tyson Helton was smart [which is still far up in the air at this point] he would design some plays to help him do that. But Tennessee’s offensive line is horrible, and it can’t continue that way.

If what is trotting out there isn’t working, change it. Give K’Rojhn Calbert a shot. Give Marcus Tatum an extended look. Move Trey Smith back inside. Do SOMETHING (anything?) to make things easier on JG.

The kid isn’t good when he’s being pressured. Think Georgia and Mel Tucker don’t know that? You’re crazy.

Turnover time

Tennessee’s defense was not bad against Florida, and it’s obvious the Vols are improving on that side of the ball. They were excellent in third-down defense, and when Florida had long fields, they didn’t do all that well.

Yes, there were too many big plays, but the Vols weren’t bad. It needs to get better and better.

One thing UT needs to do is generate more big plays. Pruitt’s defense needs to create game-changing plays, helping its offense out in this one. Without them, Tennessee cannot win.

Color blind

I fully believe the Vols aren’t as awful as they were last Saturday night. If they are, it’s going to be at least three years before they’re back; plain and simple. Instead, I think it was just too many mistakes, and once they got down against Florida, nobody expected they were going to beat Florida.

That jersey holds sway over UT. Always has.

The red-and-black jerseys haven’t, and they don’t need to start now. If the Vols play scared football, they’ll get killed because UGA is a much, much better football team with far more talent. The Vols need to play with swagger, and they need to play with a clean slate. It’s the only way to have hope.

Prediction: Georgia 41, Tennessee 14

LOCKS

We. Are. Back!

After an awful week last time out, we rebounded with a 5-2 slate to improve to 16-12 for the season. That’s makin’ money, y’all! That’s a good thing, too, because we need to stay hot. Because, you know, the Vols ain’t. And we’ve got to have some reason to watch college football.

Here is this week’s lucky seven.

1. West Virginia -3.5 over Texas Tech: I will forever believe that a Will Grier-led team will obliterate a team with zero defense. Texas Tech can score, but the Red Raiders will not score enough to win this game. At least the Mountaineers play a little bit of defense.
2. Purdue -3.5 over Nebraska: A week ago, I said the Boilermakers were the best 0-3 team in football. Now they’re the best 1-3 team in football. And though Adrian Martinez will be back for Scott Frost’s team, the Cornhuskers’ issues are deeper than just quarterback. Jeff Brohm keeps it rolling.
3. Hawaii -11.5 over San Jose State: I feel like Vegas is still disrespecting Cole McDonald’s dual-threat abilities. Now he’s going against an atrocious pass defense. Warriors will dominate this one.
4. Florida Atlantic -4.5 over MTSU: Lane Kiffin is coming back to Tennessee as a head coach for the first time since he was with the Vols. It’s on a much smaller stage, but he may be playing a better team than the Vols. His Owls will still outscore Brent Stockstill and the Raiders.
5. North Texas -7.5 over Louisiana Tech: La Tech is a good team. The Mean Green is the most underrated team in the nation. Yes, Arkansas is terrible, but North Texas DOMINATED an SEC team, even if it’s a shell of an SEC team. I’m riding the Green.
6. Ohio State/Penn State under 67.5: It’s going to be a fun matchup watching the Nittany Lions offensive line against the Buckeyes defensive line, and it’s a shame Nick Bosa is out until November. But it’s not like these teams are devoid of defense. This is a huge number. The under is screaming at me.
7. BYU +17 over Washington: I love the way Kalani Sitake gets his team up for big games. I also am not a believer in the Huskies anymore as Jake Browning has regressed as much as any “star” player in college football since Matt Barkley. Washington was favored by far too much against Arizona State last week, and I said take the Sun Devils. They covered with ease. Do the same this week with the Cougs.