Category Archives: Football

We almost got to hit the fast forward button last night. Tennessee’s touchdown to open the third quarter wasn’t the grind of its first two, which combined to take nearly 12 minutes off the clock in 21 plays. This one was poetry: nine plays, 75 yards, and almost all of them looked like they caught South Carolina off guard. The result was a 21-9 lead with 10 minutes to play in the third quarter. The Gamecocks, 3-3 on the year, looked wobbly. Pruitt’s Vols looked ready to ascend toward bowl eligibility.

And then, the game Vegas thought we’d see showed up.

South Carolina’s next three drives covered 198 yards in 20 plays. You can do the math there on the per-play average. Tennessee’s next three covered 109 yards in 35 plays. That math isn’t as much fun.

The end result – a three-point win for South Carolina – makes sense when you look at total yards: a 376-to-351 advantage for the Gamecocks smells of a close win. But per play, South Carolina (6.71) was far superior to Tennessee (4.81).

We saw some of Tennessee’s script for victory in creating a turnover and not being loose with the ball themselves. But South Carolina, as they have done all year, made it their business to take away big plays. The Gamecocks are now ninth nationally in 20+ yard plays allowed, sixth in 30+ yard plays allowed. And when Tennessee can’t connect on those downfield shots, you get an offense that looks like the one we saw last night: overly reliant on long drives sustained by a third down conversion percentage that seems, well, unsustainable.

Tennessee has converted 33 first downs on third down passes this year (stats via Sports Source Analytics). That’s 10th nationally among teams playing fewer than nine games so far. Jarrett Guarantano was remarkable, for the most part, on third down again last night, even when it had to look different from the downfield throws. Credit Tyson Helton and Tennessee’s offense staff for drawing up a plan that still worked without them. But the more you have to live on third down, the more it will eventually kill you.

South Carolina, meanwhile, lived much more reasonably: big plays taking advantage of a vulnerable Vol secondary, but also 224 yards on 40 carries, which represented 71.4% of their offensive snaps. It’s been there all year, just covered up by turnovers against Florida, an actual win at Auburn, and the quality of opponent from Georgia and Alabama. But Tennessee’s struggles to stop the run might be the quality that most stands in the way of the Vols and bowl eligibility. The Vols are 99th nationally in yards per carry allowed. In S&P+, the offense earns high marks for what it has been able to do, 35th nationally. But the defense ranks 104th, and it’s been down there for a while.

There are no easy answers, and no quick ones either with most of the snaps on the defensive line set to graduate. The Vols have been trying to overcome it in their own way on offense: methodical drives that create few opportunities for turnovers, peppered with enough risks down the field (and enough talent at wide receiver) to keep ’em honest. But when those risks don’t pay off, as was the case last night, Tennessee needs an otherworldly percentage on third downs to sustain drives.

So the numbers say the right team won last night, which also means credit the Vols for almost winning anyway. Nine penalties certainly didn’t help. But I don’t know if the Vols can be the right team the rest of the way home here, which means they’ll need that familiar formula: win the turnover battle, limit the snaps for the other side, convert a bunch of third downs, make those splash plays count.

The good news: Missouri and Vanderbilt have not been good at all in stopping explosive plays. After what will surely be another ranked win opportunity when Kentucky visits in two weeks, the Tigers and Commodores could end up being the best match-ups the Vol offense has seen on the Power 5 level all year. Tennessee’s 4.24 yards per carry last night were UT’s most against a Power 5 opponent since John Kelly ran wild on the Gators last September.

Tennessee is still making progress, which is great. But right now, even against their secondary rivals in the SEC East, it feels like the Vols have a very specific formula for victory, without many variables. The Vols may not be the right team until Pruitt and his staff bring more talent in. But last night they gave themselves a chance to win anyway. Let’s see if they can do it again.

The Tennessee Vols missed out on a great opportunity get a valuable win Saturday night, losing to the South Carolina Gamecocks 27-24 in Columbia. They fall to 3-5 overall and 1-4 in conference and still need to get three more wins (with four more opportunities) to become bowl-eligible.

Despite the result, it does still appear that this Volunteers team under Jeremy Pruitt is becoming the football team we all want it to be. Saturday night they were tough and (mostly) smart, and did some really nice things throughout the game.

Tennessee had 23 first downs to South Carolina’s 19, and they converted 11 of 16 third-down attempts. The rushing attack got back on track, as the team ran for 144 yards behind 62 from Tim Jordan and 54 from Ty Chandler. And Jeremy Banks’ move from running back to linebacker this week gave some playing time to Carlin Fils-aime, who carried the ball three times for 20 yards and a touchdown on a really well-designed play call by Tyson Helton.

Quarterback Jarrett Guarantano was again tough, accurate, and safe, going 27-of-39 for 207 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. Marquez Callaway led the receivers with 9 catches for 86 yards, and both Jauan Jennings and tight end Eli Wolf had receiving touchdowns.

On defense, Nigel Warrior was all over the place, leading the team with 9 tackles, and Shy Tuttle had an interception off a tipped ball and a blocked extra point.

Mostly, the team played like you wanted to see them play, and they had a real chance to win on the road because of it.

However, all of the effort and productivity was for naught, and this time it wasn’t undone by too many turnovers, but by too many penalties.

While the Gamecocks had only 2 penalties for 9 yards, Tennessee had 9 for 75. Two of Tennessee’s were costly unsportsmanlike conduct penalties, and five were false starts on the offensive line. Although three of the false starts came during drives that ultimately resulted in Tennessee touchdowns anyway, two of them were late in the game that resulted in turning the ball over on downs precisely when the Vols absolutely needed points.

This was a 50/50 game that turned out about what we expected. The failure to win it really shouldn’t impact our expectations going forward, except for the lost opportunity that another passing week represents.

Tennessee has Charlotte next and then has what appear to be three more tossups to close out Pruitt’s first season. Assuming the Vols get Charlotte, they still only need two of the final three games against Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt to earn a bowl game and the extra practice that comes with it.

Tennessee and South Carolina have been annual rivals for 26 years now. But after Carolina’s initial upset in 1992 – the final nail in Johnny Majors’ coffin – the rivalry lacked much importance during a 12-game Tennessee winning streak. That changed when Steve Spurrier arrived in 2005, beating the Vols in Knoxville. Since then, every Tennessee-South Carolina game in Columbia has become a landmark moment for the Vols in one way or another. It’s in part due to Carolina’s rise under Spurrier. But it’s also just an interesting twist of fate that the Vols have come to Columbia so often at their own crossroads. As Tennessee heads to South Carolina again this weekend, here’s a look back at the last six trips to Williams-Brice Stadium:

2006: The Last November as a Title Contender

On October 28, 2006, the #8 Vols earned a little payback for Spurrier’s win in Knoxville the year before. With College Gameday on hand, Tennessee beat South Carolina 31-24 under the lights in Columbia, turning back a 17-14 Carolina lead at the start of the fourth quarter with a 13-play, 80-yard drive. The win sent the Vols to November at 7-1, the only blemish a one-point loss to eventual BCS Champion Florida. But a late game injury would sideline Erik Ainge the following week, when the Vols fell to #13 LSU 28-24. Tennessee hasn’t been in the title conversation in November since then.

2008: Fulmer Forced Out

Already reeling at 3-5, Tennessee was no better at South Carolina. A 27-6 victory for the Gamecocks included just 207 yards from the Clawfense, and days later Fulmer was officially stepping down. He would finish out the season, though the Vols would fall to Wyoming the next week.

2010: Tyler Bray Emerges

The Vols and #20 South Carolina were tied at halftime, but a strip-sack fumble by Matt Simms was returned for a touchdown on the second play of the third quarter. That prompted Derek Dooley to hand the keys to true freshman Tyler Bray. His first pass was a pick six. But it got way better from there: Bray finished 9-of-15 for 159 yards and two touchdowns, helping the Vols rally to tie the game with 13 minutes to play. South Carolina won out behind Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffery, but the Vols found their quarterback. Bray would lead Tennessee to a 4-0 run in November for bowl eligibility, taking several Tennessee freshman records along the way.

2012: Derek Dooley’s Last Chance

At #13 South Carolina, with Dooley’s Vols 3-4 and the head coach still looking for his first ranked win, Tennessee almost made it happen. Rallying back from three different 14-point deficits, Tennessee pulled within three at 38-35 with 8:35 to play, the intercepted Connor Shaw on 4th-and-4 at the UT 30 with 4:46 to go. Tyler Bray got the Vols in the red zone with less than two minutes to go when Jadeveon Clowney – silent all day up to this point – scored a sack/fumble, recovered by the Gamecocks. Dooley wouldn’t officially be fired for another few weeks, but the last of us left the ship on this day in Columbia.

2014: Josh Dobbs Emerges

Perhaps the least-tainted happy memory of the Butch Jones era. A week after entering the Alabama game and raising plenty of eyebrows, Josh Dobbs earned the first start of his sophomore season and never looked back. On the day: 301 yards passing and 166 yards rushing, a new school record for rushing yards by a quarterback. Five total touchdowns, including two in the last five minutes to turn back a 42-28 hole and get the game to overtime. Sacks on first and second down by Curt Maggitt and Derek Barnett led to a missed 58-yard field goal to win it for the Vols. Though the ultimate end for Butch Jones wasn’t what we wanted, this game remains the beginning of the real hope for something more. From November 1, 2014 to October 1, 2016 the Vols went 18-5 with wins over four ranked teams, those five losses by Jones’ now-infamous 25 points. Then we lost to Texas A&M in double overtime and got smoked by Alabama. And then…

2016: The End of the Beginning of the End for Butch Jones

Still alive in the SEC East race and in total control of their own destiny for the New Year’s Six, having survived a gauntlet of four straight ranked teams plus the Battle of Bristol, and coming off a bye week…the Vols lost to South Carolina 24-21 as a 14.5-point favorite. Dobbs, so spectacular two years earlier against the Gamecocks, was 12-of-26 for 161 yards passing and just 27 yards rushing. This was Jalen Hurd’s final game in a Tennessee uniform. And for Jones, it ended any association with that 18-5 run: 4-4 in their last eight in 2016, then 4-8 in 2017.

The Vols emerge from The Gauntlet mostly intact and now travel to South Carolina to take on a Gamecocks team coming off a bye week. Has the difficult stretch of the last three or four games made Tennessee stronger or has it taken a toll?

Those intangibles will likely be significant factors in this weekend’s matchup, but first, let’s take a look at the stats and comps to see what the Statsy Preview Machine says.

Predictions

SPM: South Carolina 36, Tennessee 19

Eye- and gut-adjusted: South Carolina 28, Tennessee 24

Tennessee rushing yards: 130

South Carolina rushing yards: 130

Tennessee passing yards: 175

South Carolina passing yards: 260

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 140.7 rushing yards per game, while South Carolina is giving up 179.2 per game. To date, Florida is slightly better at defending the run than South Carolina, allowing 163.1, and Tennessee got 156 against the Gators. On the other hand, Vanderbilt is averaging 141.1 rushing yards per game but got only 92 against the Gamecocks, and the Vols’ rushing offense appears to be getting worse, not better.

Based on that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against South Carolina is 130.

South Carolina rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 162.0 rushing yards per game, while the South Carolina run game is averaging 153.7 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is getting 146.7 yards per game on the ground, and they got 95 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 172.3 rushing yards per game and got 126 against Tennessee. So, with the Vols generally holding the most similar opponents to below their season averages, I’m going with South Carolina getting about 110 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 209.9 passing yards per game, and South Carolina is allowing 199.2. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is giving up 218.5 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 172 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama. They’re allowing 194.5 passing yards per game, and Tennessee somewhat surprisingly got 227 against them.

On the other hand, the Gamecocks’ pass defense generally keeps its most similar opponents to well below their passing yard averages.

Based on all of that, my guess is that Tennessee will put up 175 passing yards this weekend.

South Carolina passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 223.1 passing yards per game. South Carolina is getting 250.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is getting 235.6 yards per game through the air, and they got 190 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is averaging 320.5 passing yards per game and got 429 against Tennessee. The Gamecocks generally get more passing yards than their opponents’ averages, so I’m going with South Carolina getting somewhere around 260 passing yards this week.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 25.9 points per game, and South Carolina is allowing 25.8. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is allowing 31.6 points per game, and Tennessee got 24 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia. They’re allowing 20.5 points per game, and Tennessee got 14 against them. Those games were early in the season, and the Vols scored 21 against Alabama and Florida and 24 against Auburn. So, my prediction is that Tennessee will score right around their average against the Gamecocks. Let’s call it 24 points.

South Carolina scoring

Tennessee is allowing 30.0 points per game. South Carolina is averaging 28.8. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 28.4 points, and they got 24 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 34.4 points and got 47 against Tennessee. The Gamecocks offense has the potential to run away with it, but if it’s a struggle, I like the chances of the Vols defense to hold them below their average.

Looking at things from the Gamecocks’ perspective, though, they got 37 against both Missouri (giving up an average of 30.9 points) and Vanderbilt (average of 24.4).

So . . . I’m going with South Carolina putting up about 28-31 points against Tennessee. Calling it 28.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

Left alone, the SPM says South Carolina 36, Tennessee 19, a spread of -17.

With eyeball and gut adjustments, I’m going with South Carolina 28, Tennessee 24, a spread of -4.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 34.2% chance of winning and puts the score at South Carolina 33.7, Tennessee 26.6, a spread of -7.1.

The Vegas spread favors South Carolina by between -7.5 and -8.5, with an over/under of between 53.5-54, which converts to something like 31-23, Gamecocks.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 19.8% chance of winning.

Thursday and Friday

The Vols don’t play until Saturday night this week, but the slate is full of a variety of tasty appetizers, and they start arriving before you even sit down. Thursday you can get a look at former Vols opponent West Virginia (and also former Vol and current Baylor Bear Jalen Hurd), and on Friday, you can see what new UCLA head coach Chip Kelly is up to as his team takes on No. 23 Utah.

Gameday

On Gameday, a couple of Top 25 teams are in action at noon, including No. 2 Clemson taking on new FSU head coach Willie Taggart.

The afternoon is all about the World’s Largest Stupid Game Between Two Stupid Tennessee Rivals, but you can also get an early look at two future Vols opponents as No. 12 Kentucky travels to Missouri.

And then the Vols kickoff at South Carolina at 7:30 on the SEC Network. Go Vols. Beat the Gamecocks.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

You’d expect the Vols’ national stat rankings to take a hit after playing Georgia, Auburn, and a historically good Alabama team all in a row, and you do see some of that. But Tennessee seems to have survived that stretch without too much dropoff, and when you compare things to this time last year, you might just be encouraged.

Offense

The Tennessee offense is doing some things really well and some things not well at all, but most the offense is stuck in that middle not-great-not-terrible territory. Overall, though, it is better than this time last year, when it was all just plain terrible.

Defense

I think maybe the most important takeaway here is that Rushing Defense has improved fairly significantly. Great defenses tend to start there and build off it.

Special Teams

Turnovers and Penalties