Category Archives: Football

The SPM was the bearer of bad news last week in advance of the Tennessee-Charlotte game, and although you can’t really say it nailed the thing, it was saner than most of us Tennessee fans.

This week, the SPM bucks the trend again, giving the Vols a better chance to win and calling for a closer game than any of Vegas, S&P+, or FPI. It still likes Kentucky to pull out the victory but thinks it will be a slightly closer contest than many think.

Predictions

SPM: Kentucky 19.3, Tennessee 15

Eye- and gut-adjusted: Kentucky 20, Tennessee 17

Tennessee rushing yards: 70

Tennessee passing yards: 200

Kentucky rushing yards: 200

Kentucky passing yards: 90

Tennessee points: 17

Kentucky points: 20

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 127.7 rushing yards per game, while Kentucky is giving up 133.2 per game. That’s nearly identical to Auburn, which is giving up 133.9 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 68 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Kentucky is Alabama, which is allowing 102.1. Tennessee got 31 on the ground against Alabama. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Kentucky is 70.

Kentucky rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 161.1 rushing yards per game, while the Kentucky run game is averaging 199.6 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is getting 184.9 yards per game on the ground, and they got 201 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama, which is averaging 224.0 rushing yards per game and got 218 against Tennessee. Assuming Benny Snell plays (he’s “probable”), I’m guessing Kentucky will get about 200 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 205.3 passing yards per game, and Kentucky is allowing 178.6. That’s almost identical to Florida, which is giving up 179.0 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 208 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia. They’re allowing 172.3 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 143 against them. My guess is that Tennessee will basically get its average of around 200 passing yards this weekend.

Kentucky passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 207.3 passing yards per game. Kentucky is getting 156.8, which makes it the least productive passing offense the Vols have played all season (117th in the nation). The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is averaging 170.4 passing yards per game and got 39 against Tennessee. Based on all of that, I’m going with Tennessee limiting Kentucky to about 90 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 24.3 points per game, and Kentucky is allowing 15.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is allowing 16.4 points per game, and Tennessee got 12 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama. They’re allowing 14.1 points per game, and Tennessee got 21 against them. My prediction is that Tennessee will score around 17 points against Kentucky.

Kentucky scoring

Tennessee is allowing 26.7 points per game. Kentucky is averaging 24.7. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Charlotte, which is averaging 20.6 points, and they got 3 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 28.3 points and got 24 against Tennessee. I’m going with Kentucky putting up about 20 points against Tennessee.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

The Vegas spread favors Kentucky by 5.5-6, with an over/under of 42.5-43, which converts to somewhere around 24-18, Kentucky.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 33.7% chance of winning and puts the score at Kentucky 28.8, Tennessee 21.5, a spread of -7.3.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 33.5% chance of winning.

Left alone, the SPM says Kentucky 19.3, Tennessee 15, a spread of only -4.3.

After looking even closer at the numbers, I’m going with Kentucky 20, Tennessee 17, a spread of -3.

Thursday, Friday

 

 

Hey, football’s almost over. Squeeze it in while you can. Don’t dwell on the fact that Syracuse is No. 13 and Fresno State is ranked.

Gameday

 

The main thing to watch in the noon slate this week is former opponents South Carolina and Florida. We want bad things for Florida more than we want bad things for South Carolina, right?

No. 11 Kentucky comes to Neyland Stadium to take on the Vols at 3:30 on the SEC Network. It’s important.

If you’re interested and perhaps a bit delusional, maybe Mississippi State at Alabama could be interesting. Hahahahahahaha. Bedlam is often fun, though, so keep an eye on the end of that game.

And finally, No. 24 Auburn travels to Georgia to take on the Bulldogs at 7:00 on ESPN. War Eagle.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

What you’re hoping to see here is progress, both from 2017 and from the end of the difficult October slate to last week’s Homecoming game.

Offense

This is a mixed bag, at least when comparing post-Charlotte to post-Gauntlet. Some slight positive movement in the passing game is balanced out by some slight negative movement in most other offensive categories. When the red and orange starts stair-stepping into the greens, your team is getting worse.

On the other hand, when you compare to 2017, it’s nice to see “half green” instead of “one green.”

Defense

Now this is more like it. Modest improvement this week across the board on defense, with the exception of Red Zone Defense. Rushing Defense is significantly better this year than last, as is the team’s ability to generate interceptions and stop opposing offenses on third down. Total Defense and First Downs Defense are both quite a bit better already in Jeremy Pruitt’s first year. The team does still need work in the red zone.

Special Teams

Turnovers and Penalties

Those six turnovers against Florida continue to haunt this season.

What are Tennessee’s chances for bowl eligibility with three games remaining? It depends on how you view the Vols’ outing against Charlotte, how their past opponents looked this past weekend, and how those three remaining opponents have looked so far. Here’s how it all shakes out for me.

First, I’ve been saying all season that I thought Tennessee’s chances of winning the Charlotte game was somewhere between 90-99%. See the graphic below for proof.

So I was surprised when our Statsy Preview Machine last Thursday spit out a mere three-point prediction for the Vols. I was surprised enough not to embrace it and put my own prediction at 34-17, but the machine coughing that up — along with S&P+ suggesting the Vols wouldn’t cover the Vegas spread — did have the effect of preparing me for a battle no one was really expecting.

And hey, football is weird. It’s a contest, and your team’s performance any given week is a product not only of how good your team is and how well it did that day but also how good its opponent is and how good they played that day. And even though we never really know how to weigh each of those factors any given week, we always seem to jump right to the conclusion that our team is either awesome or terrible regardless of any of the other three factors.

Me, I think Charlotte’s defense might be pretty good, particularly at stopping the run, and for an offense having trouble running the ball, that can cause real problems. So, I don’t know that Saturday really tells us much more about the Vols that we didn’t already know. Still, although it wasn’t cause for writing off the rest of the season, it was cause for some degree of readjustment of expectations.

The other thing that happened that changed things this week was that Missouri beat Florida, which is bad news for Vols fans.

Anyway, here’s how I’ve switched up my expectations after this weekend.

My new expected win total:

• This week: 5.3
• Last week: 5.55
• After Week 8: 6.0
• After Week 7: 6.3
• After Week 6: 5.0
• After Week 5: 4.9
• After Week 4: 4.55
• After Week 3: 5.5

I docked the Vols a bit for the performance against Charlotte, so I changed Kentucky and Missouri from 50% to 40%. Kentucky did about as well against Georgia as I expected, but Missouri beating Florida the way they did was a surprise, so I put them ahead of Kentucky. Vanderbilt, who didn’t play, went from 60% to 50%. I’m basically thinking we’ll get one of the next three instead of the two we need, but those other two are close enough to tossups that I think they could go our way.

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 4-5 (1-4), 5th in the SEC East

• Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
• Beat ETSU, 59-3
• Beat UTEP, 24-0
• Lost to Florida, 47-21
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
• Beat #21 Auburn, 30-24
• Lost to #1 Alabama, 58-21
• Lost to South Carolina, 27-24
• Beat Charlotte, 14-3
• Kentucky
• Missouri
• Vanderbilt

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 7-1 (5-1), 1st in Big 12, #7

• Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
• Beat YSU, 52-17
• NC State, Canceled
• Beat Kansas St, 35-6
• Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
• Beat Kansas, 38-22
• Lost to Iowa State, 30-14
• Bye
• Beat Baylor, 58-14
• Beat #17 Texas, 42-41
• #17 TCU
• #15 Oklahoma St.
• #5 Oklahoma

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 8-2 (6-1), 1st in Southern

• Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
• Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
• Beat VMI, 27-24
• Beat Furman, 29-27
• Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
• Beat Gardner-Webb, 45-0
• Beat The Citadel, 26-23
• Lost to Wofford, 31-17
• Beat Western Carolina, 45-43
• Beat Mercer, 21-18
• Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 1-8 (1-4), 6th in C-USA – West

• Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
• Lost to UNLV, 52-24
• Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
• Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
• Lost to UTSA, 30-21
• Lost North Texas, 27-24
• Bye
• Lost to LA Tech, 31-24
• Lost UAB, 19-0
• Beat Rice, 34-26
• MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
• Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+

Florida Gators

Current record: 6-3 (4-3), 3rd in SEC – East, #19

• Beat Charleston So, 53-6
• Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
• Beat Colorado St, 48-10
• Beat Tennessee, 47-21
• Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
• Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-27
• Bye
• Lost to #7 Georgia, 36-17
• Lost to Missouri, 38-17
• S Carolina, TBD
• Idaho, TBD
• Florida State, TBD

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 8-1 (6-1), 1st in SEC – East, #5

• Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
• Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
• Beat MTSU, 49-7
• Beat Missouri, 43-29
• Beat Tennessee, 38-12
• Beat Vanderbilt, 41-13
• Lost to #13 LSU, 36-16
• Bye
• Beat Florida, 36-17
• Beat #9 Kentucky, 34-17
• Auburn
• UMass
• Georgia Tech

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 6-3 (3-3), 3rd in SEC – West

• Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
• Beat Alabama St, 63-9
• Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
• Beat Arkansas, 34-3
• Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
• Lost to Miss St, 23-9
• Lost to Tennessee, 30-24
• Beat Ole Miss, 31-16
• Bye
• Beat #20 Texas A&M, 28-24
• Georgia
• Liberty
• Alabama

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 9-0 (6-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

• Beat Louisville*, 51-14
• Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
• Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
• Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
• Beat Louisiana, 56-14
• Beat Arkansas, 65-31
• Beat Missouri, 39-10
• Beat Tennessee, 58-21
• Bye
• Beat #3 LSU, 29-0
• Miss St
• The Citadel
• Auburn

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 5-3 (4-3), 3rd in SEC – East

• Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
• Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
• Marshall, Canceled
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
• Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
• Beat Missouri, 37-35
• Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
• Bye
• Beat Tennessee, 27-24
• Beat Ole Miss, 48-44
• Florida
• Chattanooga
• Clemson

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 4-5 (3-2), 3rd in C-USA – East

• Beat Fordham, 34-10
• Lost to App St, 45-9
• Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
• Lost to UMass, 49-31
• Lost to UAB, 28-7
• Beat Western Kentucky, 40-14
• Lost to MTSU, 21-13
• Beat Southern Miss, 20-17
• Lost to Tennessee, 14-3
• Marshall
• FIU
• FAU

The Vols’ future opponents

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 7-2 (5-2), 2nd in SEC – East, #12

• Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
• Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
• Beat Murray State, 48-10
• Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
• Beat S Carolina, 24-10
• Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
• Bye
• Beat Vanderbilt, 14-7
• Beat Missouri, 15-14
• Lost to Georgia, 34-17
• Tennessee
• MTSU
• Louisville

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-4 (1-4), 5th in SEC – East

• Beat UT Martin, 51-14
• Beat Wyoming, 40-13
• Beat Purdue, 40-37
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
• Lost to South Carolina, 37-35
• Lost to Alabama, 39-10
• Beat Memphis, 65-33
• Lost to Kentucky, 15-14
• Beat #11 Florida, 38-17
• Vanderbilt
• Tennessee
• Arkansas

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 4-5 (1-4), 5th in SEC – East

• Beat MTSU, 35-7
• Beat Nevada, 41-10
• Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
• Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
• Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
• Lost to Georgia, 41-13
• Lost to Florida, 37-27
• Lost to Kentucky, 14-7
• Beat Arkansas, 45-31
• Bye
• Missouri
• Ole Miss
• Tennessee

Not everything is the best or worst you’ve ever seen, though it may feel like it in the moment. Such was the case for portions of the day against Charlotte, when the Vols ran it 26 times for 20 yards against a Conference USA opponent and scored only a single offensive touchdown. It wasn’t good at 4.09 yards per play, Tennessee’s lowest output of the season. But per play, it was better than three games from last season, including both the obvious (Georgia and Alabama) and the similar (Southern Miss, 3.56 in victory). On the year Tennessee averages 5.35 yards per play, a significant improvement on the 4.77 from last year. The running game yesterday certainly didn’t fit the “competent, not excellent” theme the Vols have been building from after last year, but both the result and the other phases of the game were acceptable.

At the end of this year, when the offense’s total yards are held against them (currently 333 per game, 313 against power five competition), one thing to keep in mind: Tennessee is playing at a much slower pace than in most of the last ten years. The Vols ran just 47 plays yesterday, the second time this year (46 at Georgia) we’ve been under 50 offensive snaps.

Tennessee averages 62.2 plays per game. The Vols were actually a tick slower last year at 61 plays per game. But in time of possession, you can see a significant difference between 2017 and 2018:

Year	Plays	YPP	TOP
2018	62.2	5.35	31:09
2017	61	4.77	28:14
2016	68.9	6.44	27:24
2015	76	5.56	30:32
2014	75.2	4.93	30:14
2013	67	5.27	28:49
2012	74.2	6.42	26:58
2011	66	5.04	30:45
2010	63.6	5.72	28:52
2009	67.5	5.69	30:24

(Stats via Sports Source Analytics)

Last year the Vols ran essentially the same number of plays, but took almost three fewer minutes off the clock at a difference of nearly half a yard less per snap. There are several key differences from last year: one is third down conversions, the lifeblood of Tennessee’s offense. The Vols are converting 41.13% in 2018, 50th nationally, and have picked up 37 first downs through the air on third down, 11th nationally. Last year Tennessee converted just 30.67% of their third downs overall, 120th nationally.

How else are the Vols staying on the field? Take away the Florida game, and how many turnovers do you remember?

For the record: two against UTEP, the late fumble against Georgia, and the sack-fumble of Guarantano early in the Alabama game. Six against the Gators still stings, but the Vols have turned it over just four times in the other eight games. Last year, by contrast, the Vols had 18 turnovers in 12 games.

The narrative of Tennessee’s season will essentially be written by what they do in the next three games, and whether they can find two wins to get bowl eligible. But there’s enough data to this point to begin to establish Tennessee’s identity. The Vols continue to run on first down, even though they’re not very good at it (4.05 yards per carry, 101st nationally). Tennessee’s 69 passing attempts on first down rank 119th nationally, despite playing from behind so often in four of the five losses.

Part of me still believes the Vols are running it so often on first down to protect their defense: keep the clock moving, limit opportunities, etc. Tennessee is also snapping it deeper into the play clock than at any point under Butch Jones.

The real question here is how we’ll see the Vols open things up not just in the next three weeks, but next season when, in theory, all of the skill players could return along with Guarantano. Maybe the most surprising number of all: Guarantano’s 8.1 yards per attempt are on par with the best numbers of the post-Fulmer era (8.3 for Dobbs in 2016 and Tyler Bray’s last five games in 2010, 8.0 for Bray in 2011 and 2012). The Vols appear more than capable in the passing game, but remain deliberate in their commitment to the ground game, even when it’s not working well. Again, I have to believe this is in part to protect their defense.

So what now? The offensive staff put together a different, effective gameplan at South Carolina. Needing two wins in three games to get home, will we see more passing attempts? Will that lead to opposing offenses taking advantage of more shots against Tennessee’s defense? Tennessee’s plan beat Auburn and gave itself a chance against South Carolina. Is there anything left up the offense’s sleeve?