Category Archives: Football

Tennessee made the third-biggest move of the week in S&P+, up a dozen spots from 82nd to 70th overall (shout out to Minnesota’s 41-10 beat down of Purdue, leaping 23 spots). The bad news: Missouri is a Top 25 team in S&P+. The Tigers actually fell three spots after a narrow victory over Vanderbilt, but are 23rd in the S&P+ rankings and would be favored by about a touchdown on the Vols. The good news: Vanderbilt is now the worst team in the league by the same metric.

Jarrett Guarantano in national rankings (via Sports Source Analytics): 27th in completion percentage, 24th in yards per attempt, and one of only eight quarterbacks with 200+ passing attempts and two or fewer interceptions. They showed this on the Jumbotron yesterday and I didn’t believe it, but it’s true (via Sports Reference): Guarantano’s career completion percentage of 63.8% is currently the best in school history. Daryl Dickey completed 63% of his passes, Peyton Manning 62.5%. Guarantano is at 65.1% in 2018; no Vol quarterback has hit that mark since Erik Ainge in 2006 (67%).

Things we’re still bad at: the Vols are 126th nationally in tackles for loss allowed, surrendering 8.3 per game. This is still a worse pace than last year (7.42 per game), but also still an improvement in terms of how far we’re going backward. Last year the Vols lost an average of 4.1 yards per TFL. This year it’s only an average of three yards lost. More runs for -1, fewer total disasters, etc.

Tennessee continues to be far more explosive this season. Last year the Vols had 38 plays of 20+ yards and 18 plays of 30+ yards. This year, through ten games: 45 plays of 20+ yards, 24 plays of 30+ yards.

Guarantano only has a pair of interceptions, but the Vols have now lost ten fumbles (and put it on the ground an additional five times). The ten fumbles lost is good for 111th nationally.

We’re just going to get this out of the way up front: Regardless of what happens the rest of this season, Jeremy Pruitt is the real deal.

Tennessee finally has a football coach who eats, breathes, and sleeps football. He doesn’t just talk circles around knowing the game; he actually knows it. That’s evidenced by the way this UT team is always in position to make plays whether it makes them or not and by just how much the Vols have improved in every facet of the game this year.

The talent level is nowhere near where it needs to be, yet there Tennessee was on Saturday, doing Tennessee things to Kentucky in a 24-7 win at Neyland Stadium despite that “No. 11” by the Wildcats’ name in the national rankings.

It was — from start to finish — the most dominant, complete, strong effort in every phase of the game that Tennessee has played since the 2016 win over Georgia that culminated with the Joshua Dobbs Hail Mary heroics to Jauan Jennings. Yes, UT beat Kentucky and Missouri that year, but we’re talking about strong efforts against good teams.

Make no mistake: Kentucky is a good team. The Wildcats aren’t great, and they are one-dimensional, which allowed the Vols to hone in on Benny Snell Jr. and the rushing attack on Saturday, but you don’t get to be 7-2 and playing Georgia just a week ago for a place in the SEC Championship Game if you aren’t a good team.

The Vols were just better on Saturday, and this was an even better outing than UT’s upset of Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

You want special teams?

The Vols hit a field goal and blocked one of its own when Shy Tuttle surged through the line and got his mit on a kick for his second swat of the year. Though Joe Doyle didn’t have his best punting effort, netting 38.7 yards per punt, he did have a 52-yarder and also pinned UK inside the 20 once.

How about defense?

Without question, this was the best effort of the Pruitt era. This team has taken on the no-nonsense approach of its coach, and the level of intensity was elevated from the very first snap of the game. Up 24-0, the Vols let up a little and started playing soft coverage, but other than a couple of lapses in those drives, it was a brilliant effort.

Darrell Taylor proved once again that when he is playing at a high level, the Vols are at their best up front. He had four sacks off the edge, just 0.5 short of Corey Miller’s single-game team record [also set against Kentucky]. The defensive tackles played their best game of the season, holding their own against UK’s strong offensive front and shutting down run lanes. And Marquill Osborne grabbed a pair of interceptions in relief of Bryce Thompson, who went out when it looked like he got his bell rung.

The Vols were in Snell’s head, and they most importantly got in quarterback Terry Wilson’s face for much of the game, causing the JUCO transfer signal-caller to simply throw the ball away more often than not. The Wildcats never could generate anything in the passing game, and UT was able to pin its ears back and get after him. There were blitzes from all different directions, several diverse looks in the front seven, and strong coverage on the back end.

It was an ideal effort when the Vols had to have it. Even when the offense struggled in little lulls and when UT turned the ball over with two late fumbles, the defense rose to the occasion.

So, how about that offense?

Yeah, it was excellent, too, after a slow start. While you may argue quarterback Jarrett Guarantano’s stats were better in the Auburn game and he made more of a difference with the deep ball, Saturday actually was a comparable effort.

Entering the game, the Wildcats had allowed just four big passing plays all season. Tennessee had five against them in one game.

None was bigger than the end-of-the-first-half Hail Mary after the Vols got in launching position for Guarantano. On the play, he stepped up in the pocket to avoid a pass rusher, lofted the ball up perfectly to Marquez Callaway, who high-pointed the ball by using his high school basketball skills and coming down with it to give the Vols a walk-off 17-0 lead entering the break.

When it came to the rushing attack, UT’s performance came from nowhere as the Vols piled up 215 yards on the ground. Sophomore Jordan Murphy’s 59-yard scamper on an end-around was a massive play, and then Ty Chandler and Tim Jordan had several moments of brilliance, too.

More on Murphy: the kid has the kind of speed Tennessee doesn’t have much of, and he caught a long pass and had that long run against the Wildcats. Getting him more involved moving forward would be a great idea for a UT team that could use a game-breaker.

As far as the offensive line goes, Guarantano took a few more hits again than you’d like, and Drew Richmond had a couple of costly false start penalties. But this was the best performance since UT had moments of neutralization against Auburn’s defensive front. Kentucky has a bunch of good linemen, but the Vols held their own. Guarantano had more time to throw, and it was evident by how well he played.

All over the field, Tennessee found stars.

Now, with Missouri and Vanderbilt remaining on the schedule, finishing 7-5 seems a little more possible than going 5-7, which says a lot about just what Saturday’s win did for this program. A week ago after a 14-3 sleepwalking win over Charlotte, nobody felt like the Vols were getting stronger.

But when they elevated the intensity, the entire team fed off one another.

Going 6-6 with this team and this roster would be a big accomplishment, especially after the blown opportunity against South Carolina and the Vols taking themselves out of any chance to beat Florida early in the year because of turnovers. Next week’s home game against Missouri is a very bad matchup for a UT team that doesn’t seem like its best-equipped to win in a shootout, and Drew Lock is capable of throwing the ball all over the place.

That game looks more winnable now, though. Tennessee threw it around a little, too, this week, and the running game could find some lanes against Mizzou’s front seven. Even though last week’s win over Charlotte was unimpressive, the defense played extremely well, so this is two weeks in a row that side of the ball has looked good. That’s called momentum, and, against UK, Micah Abernathy returned from injury and made his presence felt while Theo Jackson was inserted at the other safety spot and looked very good at times, too.

Next week, the Vols should get freshman star safety Trevon Flowers back, too, just in time to help combat the Tigers’ passing attack as Derek Dooley returns to Neyland as Mizzou’s offensive coordinator.

The Vanderbilt game could go either way, too, considering the Commodores are on a two-game winning streak over UT and that game is in Nashville.

But there’s one big difference between those Tennessee teams and this one: Pruitt is on the sideline instead of Butch Jones.

You can’t underestimate just how much these players are buying into Pruitt’s way of coaching, into playing for four quarters and approaching each play with a level of toughness. This isn’t spouting some cute phrase like “63 effort.” It’s actually going out there and putting it on the resume of a football field.

These Vols did that against Kentucky on Saturday, and it bodes well not only for the rest of the season but the future of the Pruitt era.

Is it possible UT drops the final two games of the season and all these good vibrations fade away? Sure, it is. This team has shown that, while it can play at a high level against good teams, it also has a narrow margin for error. Make mistakes and kill drives, and it can get ugly for the Vols in a hurry. Whether they win anymore this season hinges on just what Tennessee shows up.

The simple fact that we’re seeing the team that arrived at Neyland Stadium on Saturday and stayed for the outset is proof that the buy-in is coming for these players, and when Pruitt gets more of “his guys” who do it “his way” in there, the Vols are going to start winning. Obviously we can’t predict whether UT will start winning big, but any wins would be welcome for this program in the state it’s been in.

The Vols won Saturday against the nation’s No. 11 team. They dominated Kentucky, winning in Neyland Stadium against UK for the 17th straight time dating all the way back to 1984.

This was a good matchup for Tennessee because Kentucky can’t fling the ball all over the field and had shown an inability to be a consistent offensive team at times throughout the year. The Vols took advantage of that, doing everything they were supposed to do to make it difficult on UK. But Vegas had still installed Kentucky as a 5-point favorite by kickoff; the Vols won by 17.

The matchup won’t be as favorable next week, but Pruitt and Co. have to feel pretty good about this win, and unlike the huge upset of Auburn earlier in the year, Alabama doesn’t loom the next week to crush that momentum. Instead, it’s Missouri, then Vanderbilt. Two winnable games for a team that is now getting used to winning.

That’s a testament to Pruitt, his staff and these players for turning away from the infestation of losing that oozed from the end of the Jones era, taking the tough love from their new coach and responding with some moments that can make us all proud to be Tennessee Vols.

Saturday was one of those days.

Tennessee used three turnovers and an unreal third-and-long performance to beat Auburn. And despite a 21-9 third quarter lead, the right team won in Columbia two weeks ago with the Gamecocks dominant in their comeback. We assumed this – third downs, turnovers, etc. – was Tennessee’s specific path to victory, and it would take more talent for the Vols to be the right team.

Today, against the #11 Kentucky Wildcats, Tennessee was the right team.

It’s felt weird all week, Kentucky being favored and (rightly) ranked so high. And so now, on the heels of Tennessee’s 24-7 victory, there’s a tendency to treat it like business as usual; the Vols haven’t lost to Kentucky, ranked or otherwise, in Knoxville since 1984.

Let’s be clear: this was not business as usual. Not just for Jeremy Pruitt, but for the Vols in recent memory.

Two second half fumbles made the score look more respectable. But Tennessee gained 412 yards in 60 snaps, 6.86 yards per play. Kentucky gained 262 yards in 73 plays, 3.59 yards per play. That difference of 3.27 yards per play is the best for any Vol squad against power five competition since Lane Kiffin’s 2009 Vols beat Georgia 45-19 with a difference of 3.49 yards per play.

That day felt like validation. Again, it’s hard for a Tennessee coach to earn validation by beating Kentucky in football. But those Dawgs were unranked, and these Cats just outside the Top 10. It feels a bit like Tennessee’s blowout of #12 Northwestern in the Outback Bowl at the end of the 2015 season: the name can carry more weight than the ranking, so much so we might fail to appreciation the level of domination.

Much of the validation we’re looking for – as much as is available this year – is one more win away. Butch Jones beat a South Carolina team that finished fourth nationally, but a failure to earn bowl eligibility made that memory fade. As we’ve mentioned before, those Gamecocks might have been the best team Jones beat in his entire tenure. But at Tennessee, 5-7 is never going to qualify as a memorable year.

For today to last, the Vols need to win one more. But for now…today was quite memorable indeed.

Jarrett Guarantano averaged 9.9 yards per attempt and tear-dropped several balls, including the end-of-half hail mary. For a team that couldn’t run all year? Ty Chandler and Tim Jordan combined for 152 yards on 31 carries, plus 59 more for Jordan Murphy on the reverse. Two school records were tied or broken today, as Darrell Taylor notched four sacks and Guarantano continues to just not throw interceptions. He’s got a shot at Peyton Manning’s single-season record of four picks.

Tennessee wasn’t lucky or gimmicky. They simply dominated Kentucky on both sides of the ball, the type of performance that raises the ceiling of everyone involved.

Jeremy Pruitt now has two ranked wins in ten games. Lane Kiffin got one in his only season, Derek Dooley infamously went oh-for-three-years, and Butch Jones got the Gamecocks in year one and Georgia in year three. It’s a big deal.

Pruitt also got a schedule that some might rank the toughest in the nation through this week. Kentucky is the sixth Tennessee foe to have spent time in the Top 15 this season. The next two won’t make that list, but the Vols still need one of them to earn bowl eligibility. Missouri will present in many ways the opposite challenge from today; if Vanderbilt beats Ole Miss next week the Vols and ‘Dores could face each other with only one going through to the postseason.

There’s work left to do. But today was some of the best work we’ve seen in this decade. We almost always beat Kentucky. But we almost never beat a ranked team – or anyone – like this.

Go Vols.

The SPM was the bearer of bad news last week in advance of the Tennessee-Charlotte game, and although you can’t really say it nailed the thing, it was saner than most of us Tennessee fans.

This week, the SPM bucks the trend again, giving the Vols a better chance to win and calling for a closer game than any of Vegas, S&P+, or FPI. It still likes Kentucky to pull out the victory but thinks it will be a slightly closer contest than many think.

Predictions

SPM: Kentucky 19.3, Tennessee 15

Eye- and gut-adjusted: Kentucky 20, Tennessee 17

Tennessee rushing yards: 70

Tennessee passing yards: 200

Kentucky rushing yards: 200

Kentucky passing yards: 90

Tennessee points: 17

Kentucky points: 20

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 127.7 rushing yards per game, while Kentucky is giving up 133.2 per game. That’s nearly identical to Auburn, which is giving up 133.9 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 68 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Kentucky is Alabama, which is allowing 102.1. Tennessee got 31 on the ground against Alabama. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Kentucky is 70.

Kentucky rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 161.1 rushing yards per game, while the Kentucky run game is averaging 199.6 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is getting 184.9 yards per game on the ground, and they got 201 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama, which is averaging 224.0 rushing yards per game and got 218 against Tennessee. Assuming Benny Snell plays (he’s “probable”), I’m guessing Kentucky will get about 200 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 205.3 passing yards per game, and Kentucky is allowing 178.6. That’s almost identical to Florida, which is giving up 179.0 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 208 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia. They’re allowing 172.3 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 143 against them. My guess is that Tennessee will basically get its average of around 200 passing yards this weekend.

Kentucky passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 207.3 passing yards per game. Kentucky is getting 156.8, which makes it the least productive passing offense the Vols have played all season (117th in the nation). The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is averaging 170.4 passing yards per game and got 39 against Tennessee. Based on all of that, I’m going with Tennessee limiting Kentucky to about 90 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 24.3 points per game, and Kentucky is allowing 15.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is allowing 16.4 points per game, and Tennessee got 12 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama. They’re allowing 14.1 points per game, and Tennessee got 21 against them. My prediction is that Tennessee will score around 17 points against Kentucky.

Kentucky scoring

Tennessee is allowing 26.7 points per game. Kentucky is averaging 24.7. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Charlotte, which is averaging 20.6 points, and they got 3 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 28.3 points and got 24 against Tennessee. I’m going with Kentucky putting up about 20 points against Tennessee.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

The Vegas spread favors Kentucky by 5.5-6, with an over/under of 42.5-43, which converts to somewhere around 24-18, Kentucky.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 33.7% chance of winning and puts the score at Kentucky 28.8, Tennessee 21.5, a spread of -7.3.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 33.5% chance of winning.

Left alone, the SPM says Kentucky 19.3, Tennessee 15, a spread of only -4.3.

After looking even closer at the numbers, I’m going with Kentucky 20, Tennessee 17, a spread of -3.

Thursday, Friday

Hey, football’s almost over. Squeeze it in while you can. Don’t dwell on the fact that Syracuse is No. 13 and Fresno State is ranked.

Gameday

The main thing to watch in the noon slate this week is former opponents South Carolina and Florida. We want bad things for Florida more than we want bad things for South Carolina, right?

No. 11 Kentucky comes to Neyland Stadium to take on the Vols at 3:30 on the SEC Network. It’s important.

If you’re interested and perhaps a bit delusional, maybe Mississippi State at Alabama could be interesting. Hahahahahahaha. Bedlam is often fun, though, so keep an eye on the end of that game.

And finally, No. 24 Auburn travels to Georgia to take on the Bulldogs at 7:00 on ESPN. War Eagle.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

What you’re hoping to see here is progress, both from 2017 and from the end of the difficult October slate to last week’s Homecoming game.

Offense

This is a mixed bag, at least when comparing post-Charlotte to post-Gauntlet. Some slight positive movement in the passing game is balanced out by some slight negative movement in most other offensive categories. When the red and orange starts stair-stepping into the greens, your team is getting worse.

On the other hand, when you compare to 2017, it’s nice to see “half green” instead of “one green.”

Defense

Now this is more like it. Modest improvement this week across the board on defense, with the exception of Red Zone Defense. Rushing Defense is significantly better this year than last, as is the team’s ability to generate interceptions and stop opposing offenses on third down. Total Defense and First Downs Defense are both quite a bit better already in Jeremy Pruitt’s first year. The team does still need work in the red zone.

Special Teams

Turnovers and Penalties

Those six turnovers against Florida continue to haunt this season.