Your Gameday Gameplan: Tennessee-Missouri

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the 5-5 (2-4) Tennessee Vols playing for bowl eligibility and hosting the 6-4 (2-4) Missouri Tigers on CBS. Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

The best other games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:

Saturday, November 17, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON SLATE
Idaho No. 13 Florida 12:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN Channel Hop Past Opponent
Middle Tennessee No. 17 Kentucky 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Past Opponent
No. 12 Syracuse No. 3 Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup
AFTERNOON SLATE
Missouri Tennessee 3:30 PM CBS Live Go Vols!
No. 9 West Virginia Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN Watch the score Past Opponent
EVENING SLATE
No. 16 Iowa State No. 15 Texas 8:00 PM LHN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup
No. 24 Cincinnati No. 11 UCF 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup

 

And here’s a searchable version of the entire college football TV schedule for the day:

Date Away Home Time TV
Wed Nov 14 Buffalo Ohio 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Wed Nov 14 Miami (OH) Northern Illinois 8:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Thu Nov 15 Toledo Kent State 6:00 PM CBSSN
Thu Nov 15 Tulane Houston 8:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Thu Nov 15 Florida Atlantic North Texas 9:30 PM CBSSN
Fri Nov 16 No. 25 Boise State New Mexico 9:00 PM CBSSN
Fri Nov 16 Memphis SMU 9:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Arkansas No. 21 Mississippi State 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Idaho No. 13 Florida 12:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Middle Tennessee No. 17 Kentucky 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 No. 10 Ohio State Maryland 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 No. 14 Penn State Rutgers 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Nov 17 No. 22 Northwestern Minnesota 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Nov 17 The Citadel No. 1 Alabama 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Colgate Army 12:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 17 Michigan State Nebraska 12:00 PM FOX
Sat Nov 17 Pittsburgh Wake Forest 12:00 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 South Florida Temple 12:00 PM ESPNN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 TCU Baylor 12:00 PM FS1
Sat Nov 17 NC State Louisville 12:20 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 TBD Catawba 1:05 PM
Sat Nov 17 No. 19 Utah Colorado 1:30 PM PAC12
Sat Nov 17 No. 23 Utah State Colorado State 2:00 PM
Sat Nov 17 Florida Intl Charlotte 2:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 17 TBD Averett 2:00 PM
Sat Nov 17 VMI Old Dominion 2:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 17 No. 12 Syracuse No. 3 Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC
Sat Nov 17 Georgia State Appalachian State 2:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 17 UTSA Marshall 2:30 PM
Sat Nov 17 UL Monroe Arkansas State 3:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 17 Western Carolina North Carolina 3:00 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Missouri Tennessee 3:30 PM CBS
Sat Nov 17 No. 20 Boston College Florida State 3:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 No. 9 West Virginia Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Bowling Green Akron 3:30 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 17 Iowa Illinois 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Nov 17 Louisiana Tech Southern Mississippi 3:30 PM
Sat Nov 17 Miami Virginia Tech 3:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Texas State Troy 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 17 Texas Tech Kansas State 3:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Tulsa Navy 3:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 17 USC UCLA 3:30 PM FOX
Sat Nov 17 Virginia Georgia Tech 3:30 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Wisconsin Purdue 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Nov 17 Indiana No. 4 Michigan 4:00 PM FS1
Sat Nov 17 UMass No. 5 Georgia 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Air Force Wyoming 4:00 PM ESPNN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Liberty Auburn 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Oregon State No. 18 Washington 4:30 PM PAC12
Sat Nov 17 Georgia Southern Coastal Carolina 5:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 17 Nevada San Jose State 5:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 17 South Alabama Louisiana 5:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 17 Duke No. 2 Clemson 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 UAB Texas A&M 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 UConn East Carolina 7:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 17 Kansas No. 6 Oklahoma 7:30 PM FOX
Sat Nov 17 Rice No. 7 LSU 7:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Chattanooga South Carolina 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Ole Miss Vanderbilt 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Stanford California 7:30 PM PAC12
Sat Nov 17 UTEP Western Kentucky 7:30 PM
Sat Nov 17 No. 16 Iowa State No. 15 Texas 8:00 PM LHN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 No. 24 Cincinnati No. 11 UCF 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 New Mexico State BYU 10:15 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Arizona No. 8 Washington State 10:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Arizona State Oregon 10:30 PM PAC12
Sat Nov 17 San Diego State Fresno State 10:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 17 UNLV Hawai'i 11:00 PM

 

GRT games and contests

While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.

GRT game-week audio

Here’s Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Will West on WNML’s Sports 180:

Pre-game prep

And to catch up on your pre-game reading, have a look at our game preview posts from earlier this week:

Go Vols!

Pace and Space and Total Plays

Two years ago Tennessee beat Missouri 63-37, part of a sterling November performance for Josh Dobbs and the Vol offense. Tennessee led the nation in yards per play that month (stats via SportSource Analytics), averaging 8.96 per snap against Tennessee Tech, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. The next-closest team in November was Colorado State at 8.51. It was incredibly impressive.

But against Missouri, some of the post-game press went to what the Tigers did against the Vol defense: 740 yards! 420 on the ground! Oh the humanity!

It was a huge day for the Tigers…mostly because they ran 110 plays.

Mizzou’s 6.73 yards per play that day certainly didn’t represent a great effort by Bob Shoop’s unit. But Texas A&M, Alabama, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt were all more successful per-play against the Vol defense. They just didn’t snap it 110 times while giving up 63 points in just 67 plays on the other end.

Much has changed for Tennessee since then, but not a whole lot for Missouri. Derek Dooley now calls the plays, but the Tigers still love to get up and go. And this is the biggest difference between these two teams: Missouri has run 776 plays, eighth nationally among teams playing 10 games or fewer so far, and the fastest pace in the SEC. Tennessee has run 620 plays, fourth-slowest nationally among teams playing 10 games or more, and dead last in the SEC. Missouri essentially averages two whole drives more than Tennessee per game.

Missouri isn’t so much explosive as they are relentless. In their advanced statistical profile from Bill Connelly, the Tiger offense ranks only 98th in explosiveness but 16th in efficiency. For a team running more plays than almost anyone else, the Tigers are only fifth in the SEC in gains of 10+ yards on the year. Here they have a clear advantage on the Vols, who rank 12th in the league. But when you start increasing the denomination, the gap narrows quickly.

MIZ UT
10+ 148 122
20+ 54 45
30+ 28 24
40+ 18 12
50+ 7 7

With the Tigers averaging 15+ snaps a game more than Tennessee, you would expect these differences to be greater. But Missouri hasn’t been beating people with sheer explosiveness. It’s instead an efficient, relentless offense that’s been good at creating more chances and making the most of them.

Tennessee, on the other hand, is more explosive than we give it credit for because it runs so few plays. We looked at this in-depth after the Charlotte win – Tennessee’s pace of 62 plays per game is still the second-slowest of the post-Fulmer era, bested only by last year at 61 because the offense struggled so much it couldn’t stay on the field. This team is much more deliberate about its pace, averaging 31:02 in time of possession, nearly three minutes more than last season. No doubt the Vols will look to do that again on Saturday, seeking to limit Missouri’s chances. This is exactly what Kentucky did, holding the Tigers to 62 plays. Only two of Kentucky’s five punts in that game came via three-and-outs. The Cats weren’t overly efficient – 3-of-14 on third down, 0-for-3 on fourth down – but they did a good enough job keeping the chains moving to limit Missouri’s chances.

For Tennessee’s offense, the formula for success here is a familiar one: make it count on third down, and sprinkle in enough big plays. I’m not as worried about Missouri decimating Tennessee’s defense over the top as I am about the Tigers simply eating it up one play at a time. When the Vols did well against Kentucky’s offense last week, they did well on first down and put the Cats in situations they didn’t want to be in. There are fewer situations the Tigers don’t want to be in. But I think this will be less about explosive plays allowed, and more about limiting Missouri’s overall chances by way of Tennessee’s own efficiency.

 

Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game: Missouri edition

It’s time for this week’s edition of the GRT Guessing Game. If you are new here and have no idea what this is all about, you can find out everything you need to know here. Last week’s results are here.

Let’sa go!

  1. Submit your answers to our three questions below.
  2. Click the “Submit” button.
  3. Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.

Good luck!

Locks & Keys Week 12: Tennessee vs. Missouri, Lock isn’t the Only Key

It’s time to see if coach Jeremy Pruitt can keep this ball rolling.

We’ve seen that the first-year Tennessee coach can recruit, and we’ve seen that he can develop. But can he get his Vols to pull off their third big upset of the year against a team that is arguably the worst matchup for them since Alabama? That’s a major question mark, and while 7-5 is still a possibility for this team, so is 5-7. We all need to remember that.

Simply put: The Missouri Tigers are at least the fourth-best team the Vols will play this season. It’s a toss-up to me whether they’re as good as West Virginia, but I’m giving the Mountaineers the (slight) nod there based on their body of work, though WVU’s record would be nowhere near what it is had it played in the SEC.

This Mizzou team is 6-4 and really should be 8-2 with losses to Alabama and Georgia. A bad South Carolina team beat them in Columbia, S.C., in a driving rain, and Kentucky got an extra down on a garbage call and took advantage with a walk-off win.

Yep, this team is close to flipping places with the Wildcats as the SEC’s Cinderella story of the year, and it’s going to be a monumental task for Tennessee to pull off. It’s one the Vols are up to, though. Here’s why…

KEYS

Make Lock beat you

You read that correctly.

Yes, Missouri has the second-best quarterback in the SEC with Drew Lock, but if you’re the Vols, you want the Tigers feeling like they’ve got to throw it all over the field to win. Mizzou has two really good, underrated running backs in Damarea Crockett and Larry Rountree III, and if they’re having success churning out yards, Mizzou is going to be impossible to stop.

The Vols did a great job up the middle of the field against Kentucky against Benny Snell and Co., and they’ve got to keep it up against a strong, veteran offensive line. Pruitt said this week the first key is going to be stopping Mizzou’s run, and he’s absolutely right to approach the game that way.

Run it up

Speaking of running, the Vols must be able to do it successfully. The Tigers are fifth in the conference in rush defense, so as bad as they’ve been on that side of the ball, teams aren’t lighting up the rushing statistics column against them.

The Vols are determined to run it, and with a healthy Ty Chandler in the lineup, they’re finding success doing so recently. This UT offense needs to keep the football away from Drew Lock and the Tigers, and the only way to do that is to sustain drives. Chandler, Jordan and others have to find space, and this Vols offensive line must have its best game of the season.

This is a tall task for Tyson Helton’s offense just because there’s going to be so much pressure on it to score.

Deep shots

Missouri’s secondary is terrible. They’ve had so many issues all season no matter who they play out there, and if there’s one place where UT has a distinct advantage, it’s the Vols tall, talented receivers against the Tigers struggling DBs.

This is one of those games where quarterback Jarrett Guarantano should be expected to take a major leap forward. He played very well against Kentucky, and he needs to build on that momentum and expand his game against Mizzou. Tennessee needs to be an offensive aggressor, taking its downfield shots and hitting a few. This is a big game for the maturation of Guarantano and the development of this offense.

It feels like a game where the Vols can have some big plays.

Start me up

Against Kentucky, Tennessee jumped in front early and kept the pressure on throughout. Missouri is a different animal because of its ability to stretch the field vertically, but that doesn’t change the Vols’ approach.

Basically, a key all season has been for UT to get out to a strong start. When it does, the Vols stand a great chance of winning. When they struggle early, they don’t do a good job coming back. In a game that’s going to feature a lot of points, the Vols need to prove right away they’ve got their own ammunition. An early touchdown and a lead would be big.

It also would help UT set the tone, be the pressure-pusher and believe it can come away with the win.

Third-down D

Drew Lock hasn’t enjoyed his greatest statistical season, but he’s grown in his ability to lead an offense under offensive coordinator Derek Dooley. The duo of dangerous running backs are important pieces to the puzzle, too.

That’s why it’s Alabama, then Georgia, then Missouri in third-down conversions in the league. The Tigers are staying on the field offensively, converting 45.5 percent of the time. That’s a great clip, and UT’s defense has to stop that. The Vols haven’t done well in third-down defense this year, currently 10th in the league. But they’ve been much better in the past couple of games.

That is a trend that must continue.

Harass Lock

Last weekend, the re-emergence of outside linebacker Darrell Taylor was massive for the Vols. The junior had three sacks earlier this season against Georgia, and he added four more last weekend against UK, garnering national defensive player of the week honors.

The rest of the year, though, Taylor has zero sacks. That must change.

UT needs the Taylor of last week to show out, and they could use some pressure from guys like Kyle Phillips, DeAndre Johnson and perhaps Kivon Bennett, too. Even if UT needs corner and safety blitzes, they’ve got to get in Lock’s face. This honestly may be the biggest key of the game.

If Lock has all day to throw, he’ll pick apart UT’s young secondary, no matter how good it is. The Vols have to make things difficult on him.

Prediction

So, what’s all this mean? There are a lot of things that must happen for the Vols to win the game. They’re going against a strong offense that is capable of blowing them off their home field, and the only way to combat that is to hit them head-on and throw some punches of their own.

UT’s defense is getting better. It’s secondary is getting better, and if freshman Trevon Flowers returns, it’s only going to improve again this week. The offense did some really good things against Kentucky, and the momentum must continue.

But this is a program that looks and feels like it’s on the cusp of turning a corner. Last week, Mizzou didn’t scare anybody in a 33-28 win over Vanderbilt, and you wonder which team will show up; that one or the one that dominated Florida?

UT playing at Neyland Stadium with a ton to play for, I believe, is going to be the difference in this one in a close one. This will be a vital win for the Vols.

Vols win 33-30

LOCKS

We were one (well, two) stupid LSU running back decision away from going 5-2 again. But, thanks to Nick Brossette sliding down not once but TWICE inside the 10-yard line rather than score a late stat-padding touchdown, the Tigers failed to cover against Arkansas, dropping us to 4-3.

That’s not really fair, but that’s gambling. That’s why it doesn’t really pay to do it for real. There are big buildings and bright lights in Vegas for reason, right? Even so, we were over .500 for the fourth straight week, so … MAKING MONEY! We’re 36-34 for the year, and hopefully we can improve on that this week.

The final tally last week was West Virginia easily covering 11.5 over TCU, Ohio State’s late rally to cruise past the 4-point line over Michigan State, MTSU narrowly covering the 13.5 spread against UTEP winning by 16, and Wazzu handling Colorado. That’s a good thing because we picked Purdue to beat Minnesota and the Gophers won 41-10. We also thought Oregon would beat Utah outright, and that didn’t happen. The LSU debacle despite coach Ed Orgeron continually trying to score dropped us to 4-3. Here are this week’s picks.

  1. Nebraska +1.5 over Michigan State: This is a bit of a gamble, I know, but I believe in what Scott Frost is building in Lincoln, and I think Adrian Martinez is the kind of quarterback who can give the Spartans issue. Take the upset.
  2. Syracuse +10 over Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish have surprised all season, but this Syracuse team has scored 50-plus points in five games and is in the nation’s top five in turnover differential. This is the best team ND has played since Michigan, and the Orange will cover (at least).
  3. Texas Tech -6.5 over Kansas State: The Red Raiders score a ton of points, and while they also give up a ton, the Wildcats can’t hang offensively. I don’t see any scenario where this fails to be a double-digit win.
  4. Tennessee +6 over Missouri: For reasons stated above, the Vols not only cover but win outright.
  5. West Virginia -5 over Oklahoma State: This is not enough points. There is no way the Cowboys will stop the Mountaineers, and though there will be plenty of points scored on both sides, I’m going with the best defense.
  6. Boston College -1.5 over Florida State: What? No way. The Seminoles are awful. Eagles roll.
  7. Ole Miss +3 over Vanderbilt: The Commodores have crashed the past two seasons despite beating the Vols each of those years. Ole Miss has a great offense, and much like in the Texas Tech game above, VU just can’t score enough to win this one. It’ll be similar to the Mizzou game.

Tennessee-Missouri statistical comps preview: The comps have to be wrong about this game, right?

The statistical comps for this Saturday’s matchup between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Missouri Tigers are all over the place. Part of the noise is likely due to Tennessee’s accelerated improvement curve under Jeremy Pruitt.

Another factor contributing to the noise, though, appears to be solely on Missouri’s side. The Tigers seem to be as likely to pile up numbers by rolling over opponents when they find something that works as they are to simply get beat by teams as good or better than they are. They scored 65 points against Memphis but only 14 against Kentucky. Even against similarly good teams, there’s a huge variance: Against No. 1 Alabama, they scored only 10 points, but against No. 2 Georgia, they put up 29.

So, the SPM thinks that Missouri is going to easily cover the Vegas spread this week, but I’m highly suspicious of its nearly 23-point spread. I’m still thinking Missouri wins, but in a much closer game. And yet, if the Tigers find something they can exploit against the Vols, they’ll convert that into a bunch of points.

Predictions

SPM: Missouri 39.5, Tennessee 16.8 (Missouri, -22.7)

Eye- and gut-adjusted: Missouri 31, Tennessee 27 (Missouri, -4)

Tennessee rushing yards: 180

Missouri rushing yards: 110

Tennessee passing yards: 240

Missouri passing yards: 280

Tennessee points: 27

Missouri points: 31

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 136.4 rushing yards per game, while Missouri is giving up 134.1 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Missouri, is Kentucky, which is giving up 141.4 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 215 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Missouri is Georgia, which is allowing 131.0. Tennessee got 66 on the ground against Georgia.

I believe the Vols’ run game has improved since Georgia, so I’m angling for something closer to last week. My guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Missouri is 180.

Missouri rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 152.7 rushing yards per game, while the Missouri run game is averaging 195.9 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Kentucky, which is getting 187.3 yards per game on the ground, and they got 77 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 203.1 rushing yards per game and got 201 against Tennessee.

So, early in the season, Florida got its average. Last week, the Vols held Kentuck and Benny Snell to less than half their average.

On the other hand, Missouri generally gets more than their opponents are giving. Against Memphis (giving up an average of 169.1), they got 273. Against Purdue (giving up 144.8), they got 233. This will become a theme as we continue to look at the numbers: When the Missouri Tigers find something that works, they milk that sucker dry. But when they struggle and they have no other options, they’ll just get beat.

So, it seems to me that Missouri’s numbers seem to be a little inflated due simply getting beat some of the time but also putting success on repeat when they can. Is Tennessee a team that can disrupt their playlist? That’s the main question this weekend, I think.

My guess on that all-important question Saturday is that this Tennessee team at this point in the season can play with these guys, so I’m going with Missouri having to work and being limited to about 110 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 204.5 passing yards per game, and Missouri is allowing 276.5, the worst pass defense the Vols have faced this year. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia. They’re allowing 233.7 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 172 against them. That almost seems like a different season at this point.

So, I think Tennessee may get well above its average in the passing game this week. Let’s call it 240 passing yards this weekend for the good guys.

Missouri passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 205.1 passing yards per game. Missouri is getting 277.5. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is getting 250.7 yards per game through the air, and they got 152 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama, which is averaging 323.7 passing yards per game and got 327 against Tennessee.

The Gamecocks managed not far above their average against Tennessee, and even high-powered Alabama only got its average against Pruitt’s guys.

I’m going with Missouri getting somewhere around its average of 280 passing yards against Tennessee this weekend.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 24.3 points per game, and Missouri is allowing 27.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is allowing 28.7 points per game, and Tennessee got 24 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Charlotte. They’re allowing 25.3 points per game, and Tennessee got 14 against them.

I’m thinking that Charlotte game was an outlier — a Tennessee team not yet good enough to sleepwalk through any game still falling prey to the temptation.

However, while the Vols offense has shown some flashes this season, they’re still really only good for a few touchdowns and a field goal or two per game, so my prediction is that Tennessee will get about what Missouri is giving, namely 24-27 points. Let’s call it 27 because I just drank my coffee.

Missouri scoring

Tennessee is allowing 24.7 points per game. Missouri is averaging 35.5. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 31.0 points, and they got 47 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is averaging 37.0 points and got 38 against Tennessee.

Does all of that mean that good teams put up more points than usual against Tennessee? The Florida game featured six turnovers. Georgia, well, Missouri’s not Georgia, right? Let’s hope. But against good defenses — Florida notwithstanding — they’re generally scoring between 28 and 35 points.

I’m going with Missouri putting up about 31 points in Neyland against Tennessee.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

The Vegas spread favors Missouri by 5.5-6, with an over/under of 55.5-56.5, which converts to somewhere around 31-25, Missouri.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 32.2% chance of winning and puts the score at Missouri 34.8, Tennessee 26.8, a spread of -8.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 31.7% chance of winning.

Left alone, the SPM says Missouri 39.5, Tennessee 16.8, a spread of -22.7.

After eye- and gut-adjustments, I’m going with Missouri 31, Tennessee 27, a spread of -4.

2018 college football TV schedule for Vols fans: Week 12

There’s not a lot going on prior to Saturday, so if you need to get some stuff done, use your Thursday and Friday well.

Gameday

Saturday, November 17, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON SLATE
Idaho No. 13 Florida 12:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN Channel Hop Past Opponent
Middle Tennessee No. 17 Kentucky 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Past Opponent
No. 12 Syracuse No. 3 Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup
AFTERNOON SLATE
Missouri Tennessee 3:30 PM CBS Live Go Vols!
No. 9 West Virginia Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN Watch the score Past Opponent
EVENING SLATE
No. 16 Iowa State No. 15 Texas 8:00 PM LHN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup
No. 24 Cincinnati No. 11 UCF 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup

 

The noon slate features a couple of past Vols’ opponents in Florida and Kentucky, but both should roll against lesser opponents. If you’re looking for something that might be a bit more enjoyable, check out No. 12 Syracuse and No. 3 Notre Dame at 2:30 on NBC. I know, it’s dumb for it to be on at 2:30, but hey.

Tennessee hosts Missouri at 3:30 on CBS, so that’s your main appointment for the day, but keep an eye on the score in the game between No. 9 West Virginia and Oklahoma State. Could be some fireworks there.

In the evening, evenly matched No. 16 Iowa State and No. 15 Texas meet for what should be a good game, and No. 24 Cincinnati has what may be the best chance to knock off an undefeated No. 11 UCF.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
Wed Nov 14 Buffalo Ohio 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Wed Nov 14 Miami (OH) Northern Illinois 8:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Thu Nov 15 Toledo Kent State 6:00 PM CBSSN
Thu Nov 15 Tulane Houston 8:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Thu Nov 15 Florida Atlantic North Texas 9:30 PM CBSSN
Fri Nov 16 No. 25 Boise State New Mexico 9:00 PM CBSSN
Fri Nov 16 Memphis SMU 9:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Arkansas No. 21 Mississippi State 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Idaho No. 13 Florida 12:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Middle Tennessee No. 17 Kentucky 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 No. 10 Ohio State Maryland 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 No. 14 Penn State Rutgers 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Nov 17 No. 22 Northwestern Minnesota 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Nov 17 The Citadel No. 1 Alabama 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Colgate Army 12:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 17 Michigan State Nebraska 12:00 PM FOX
Sat Nov 17 Pittsburgh Wake Forest 12:00 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 South Florida Temple 12:00 PM ESPNN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 TCU Baylor 12:00 PM FS1
Sat Nov 17 NC State Louisville 12:20 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 TBD Catawba 1:05 PM
Sat Nov 17 No. 19 Utah Colorado 1:30 PM PAC12
Sat Nov 17 No. 23 Utah State Colorado State 2:00 PM
Sat Nov 17 Florida Intl Charlotte 2:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 17 TBD Averett 2:00 PM
Sat Nov 17 VMI Old Dominion 2:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 17 No. 12 Syracuse No. 3 Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC
Sat Nov 17 Georgia State Appalachian State 2:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 17 UTSA Marshall 2:30 PM
Sat Nov 17 UL Monroe Arkansas State 3:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 17 Western Carolina North Carolina 3:00 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Missouri Tennessee 3:30 PM CBS
Sat Nov 17 No. 20 Boston College Florida State 3:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 No. 9 West Virginia Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Bowling Green Akron 3:30 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 17 Iowa Illinois 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Nov 17 Louisiana Tech Southern Mississippi 3:30 PM
Sat Nov 17 Miami Virginia Tech 3:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Texas State Troy 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 17 Texas Tech Kansas State 3:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Tulsa Navy 3:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 17 USC UCLA 3:30 PM FOX
Sat Nov 17 Virginia Georgia Tech 3:30 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Wisconsin Purdue 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Nov 17 Indiana No. 4 Michigan 4:00 PM FS1
Sat Nov 17 UMass No. 5 Georgia 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Air Force Wyoming 4:00 PM ESPNN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Liberty Auburn 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Oregon State No. 18 Washington 4:30 PM PAC12
Sat Nov 17 Georgia Southern Coastal Carolina 5:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 17 Nevada San Jose State 5:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 17 South Alabama Louisiana 5:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 17 Duke No. 2 Clemson 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 UAB Texas A&M 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 UConn East Carolina 7:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 17 Kansas No. 6 Oklahoma 7:30 PM FOX
Sat Nov 17 Rice No. 7 LSU 7:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Chattanooga South Carolina 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Ole Miss Vanderbilt 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Stanford California 7:30 PM PAC12
Sat Nov 17 UTEP Western Kentucky 7:30 PM
Sat Nov 17 No. 16 Iowa State No. 15 Texas 8:00 PM LHN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 No. 24 Cincinnati No. 11 UCF 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 New Mexico State BYU 10:15 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Arizona No. 8 Washington State 10:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Arizona State Oregon 10:30 PM PAC12
Sat Nov 17 San Diego State Fresno State 10:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 17 UNLV Hawai'i 11:00 PM

Tennessee Recruiting: Vols Continue Rekindling Old Flames With Jordan Davis Commitment

The biggest recruiting trend so far in the Jeremy Pruitt era at Tennessee is the Vols getting bigger and stronger across the board at every position. If there’s another trend that is continuing on Rocky Top, it’s some old names popping up and popping for the Vols.

It happened when defensive lineman Emmit Gooden committed and ultimately signed with Tennessee in Pruitt’s initial class after being committed to UT as a high school upperclassman before heading to JUCO. He’s been a solid addition to the defensive front so far this season.

Former Vols tight end commitment Darrel Middleton is now a JUCO defensive lineman with offers from Georgia, Alabama and others, and he’s already decided to come home and be part of what Pruitt is building as a cornerstone of the 2019 class. With four senior defensive linemen heading off after this year, Middleton is a big piece of the puzzle in this class.

One of UT’s biggest remaining targets in the class is former mid-state wide receiver JaVonta Payton, who committed to Ole Miss out of high school, failed to qualify, went to JUCO and is now with the Rebels again, though UT is trying to steal him away.

On Tuesday night, yet another “blast from the past” chose to become a Vol. That would be Memphis defensive lineman Jordan Davis, who Tennessee recruited heavily the first time around with former coach Butch Jones. But Davis’ family loved Alabama (and Coach Pruitt) and he signed with the Crimson Tide instead. Davis was the No. 108-ranked player in the nation coming out of high school, according to 247Sports and looked like a potential big-time player at 6’5″, 238 pounds.

The defender failed to qualify, however, and went to Copiah-Lincoln Community College in Mississippi, where he re-pledged to UA before backing off that commitment on November 3. He had offers from Tennessee and Mississippi State and ultimately decided Tuesday night he wanted to play for Pruitt.

He made his intentions known with a tweet.

Though there’s still a long time before Davis can suit up for the Vols, he’s a huge get if UT can ultimately get him on campus. He’s still got grade issues and should need the full two years at JUCO. Everybody knows a lot of things can happen in that timeframe with other schools coming calling, but Davis is a guy who seems dialed-in on playing for Pruitt.

Tennessee ace recruiter Brian Niedermeyer alluded to Davis’ commitment with a tweet of his own Tuesday night.

Who knows what all is going to happen with Davis and how he develops between now and 2020. At 240 pounds, he’s got the kind of frame that could add 40-50 pounds and play with his hand down. He also could stay on the second level as a pass-rushing outside linebacker, though a line spot looks most likely.

He was the No. 6 weak side defensive end nationally and the No. 2 overall prospect out of Tennessee coming out of high school, according to 247Sports, and he is exactly the kind of JUCO instant-impact player the Vols will need as they try to fill in the gaps from the past two mediocre classes of the Butch Jones era.

Davis is a big-time player if he continues to develop, make the grades and keeps his head on straight. This is a player UA wants, and the Vols outright beat the Tide, at least for his commitment, even though there’s a long time before his signature goes on paper. Davis looks like a big piece of the future.

Updated projected win totals for the Vols after Kentucky

My new expected win total:

  • This week: 6.1
  • Last week: 5.3
  • After Week 9: 5.55
  • After Week 8: 6.0
  • After Week 7: 6.3
  • After Week 6: 5.0
  • After Week 5: 4.9
  • After Week 4: 4.55
  • After Week 3: 5.5

With the Vols looking good this week against Kentucky, and with Missouri and Vanderbilt coming down to the wire, I’m changing the Missouri game back to 50% (from 40% last week) and Vanderbilt back to 60% (from 50% last week.) They are basically both tossups, but the Vols have shown that they can get things done. Whether they can do it consistently yet is the question.

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 5-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC East

  • Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
  • Beat ETSU, 59-3
  • Beat UTEP, 24-0
  • Lost to Florida, 47-21
  • Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
  • Beat #21 Auburn, 30-24
  • Lost to #1 Alabama, 58-21
  • Lost to South Carolina, 27-24
  • Beat Charlotte, 14-3
  • Beat No. 11 Kentucky, 24-7
  • Missouri
  • Vanderbilt

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 8-1 (6-1), 1st in Big 12, #7

  • Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
  • Beat YSU, 52-17
  • NC State, Canceled
  • Beat Kansas St, 35-6
  • Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
  • Beat Kansas, 38-22
  • Lost to Iowa State, 30-14
  • Bye
  • Beat Baylor, 58-14
  • Beat #17 Texas, 42-41
  • Beat TCU, 47-10
  • Oklahoma St.
  • Oklahoma

These guys are legit. We’ll know just how legit over the next couple of weeks.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 8-2 (6-1), 1st in Southern

UTEP Miners

Current record: 1-9 (1-5), 6th in C-USA – West

Um, not legit.

Florida Gators

Current record: 7-3 (5-3), 2nd in SEC – East, #15

  • Beat Charleston So, 53-6
  • Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
  • Beat Colorado St, 48-10
  • Beat Tennessee, 47-21
  • Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
  • Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 37-27
  • Bye
  • Lost to #7 Georgia, 36-17
  • Lost to Missouri, 38-17
  • Beat South Carolina, 35-31
  • Idaho
  • Florida State

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 9-1 (7-1), 1st in SEC – East, #5

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 6-4 (3-4), 4th in SEC – West

  • Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
  • Beat Alabama St, 63-9
  • Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
  • Beat Arkansas, 34-3
  • Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
  • Lost to Miss St, 23-9
  • Lost to Tennessee, 30-24
  • Beat Ole Miss, 31-16
  • Bye
  • Beat #20 Texas A&M, 28-24
  • Lost to Georgia, 27-10
  • Liberty
  • Alabama

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 10-0 (7-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

  • Beat Louisville*, 51-14
  • Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
  • Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
  • Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
  • Beat Louisiana, 56-14
  • Beat Arkansas, 65-31
  • Beat Missouri, 39-10
  • Beat Tennessee, 58-21
  • Bye
  • Beat #3 LSU, 29-0
  • Beat # 16 Mississippi State, 24-0
  • The Citadel
  • Auburn

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 5-4 (4-4), 4th in SEC – East

  • Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
  • Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
  • Marshall, Canceled
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
  • Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
  • Beat Missouri, 37-35
  • Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
  • Bye
  • Beat Tennessee, 27-24
  • Beat Ole Miss, 48-44
  • Lost to Florida, 35-31
  • Chattanooga
  • Clemson

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 4-6 (3-3), 4th in C-USA – East

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 7-3 (5-3), 2nd in SEC – East, #20

  • Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
  • Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
  • Beat Murray State, 48-10
  • Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
  • Beat S Carolina, 24-10
  • Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
  • Bye
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 14-7
  • Beat Missouri, 15-14
  • Lost to Georgia, 34-17
  • Lost to Tennessee, 24-7
  • MTSU
  • Louisville

The Vols’ future opponents

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 6-4 (2-4), 5th in SEC – East

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 4-6 (1-5), 7th in SEC – East

GRT Guessing Game Results Week 11

Well, the Big Blue Nation didn’t have the most productive week, but the Big Blue Shells had their way, blowing up two leaders and making way for Will Shelton to take the lead in the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game after the Week 11 action.

Here’s the play-by-play for this week.

Round 1

Q: Which is greater, Tennessee’s passing yards or Kentucky’s rushing yards?

A: Tennessee’s passing yards (10 points) (Vols’ passing: 197, Wildcats’ rushing: 77)

Eleven players got this right.

Mushrooms (5 points): Randy Holtzclaw and chadvolfan

Bananas (-5 points): Evan and Richard

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • Blue Shell #5 blows up, taking out current leader Displaced_Vol_Fan (-10 points), putting cscott95 in the lead.
  • New Blue Shell #6 Counter: 1
  • No new blue shells
  • Sam Hensley draws a bolt and gets 10 points.

Top 10 after Round 1:

  1. cscott95
  2. Displaced_Vol_Fan
  3. Will Shelton
  4. Jayyyy
  5. Mitchell K
  6. Harley
  7. Joel Hollingsworth
  8. Raven17
  9. daetilus
  10. Sam Hensley

Round 2

Q: How many combined sacks and tackles for loss does Kentucky’s Josh Allen get?

A: 1-3 (10 points) (Allen got 2. For your entertainment, UT’s Darrell Taylor got 8. Woo.)

Who got this one right? Cscott95, Will Shelton, Mitchell K, Harley, daetilus, Mariettavol, JWheel101, chadvolfan, and Richard.

Mushrooms (5 points): Displaced_Vol_Fan and Randy Holtzclaw

Bananas (-5 points): HT and Richard

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • Blue Shell #6 blows up and takes out current leader cscott95, putting Will Shelton in the lead. Shenanigans! Favoritism! Deception! . . . Hanging chads!
  • New Blue Shell #7 Counter: 5
  • No bolts

Top 10 after Round 2:

  1. Will Shelton
  2. cscott95
  3. Displaced_Vol_Fan
  4. Mitchell K
  5. Harley
  6. Jayyyy
  7. daetilus
  8. Mariettavol
  9. Joel Hollingsworth
  10. JWheel101

Round 3

Q: How do the Vols score their first touchdown?

A: A running play (10 points) (Tim Jordan’s 3-yard run)

Only HT and Richard got this right.

Mushrooms (5 points): Oddly enough, HT and Richard. Sideways eyes.

Bananas (-5 points): HT and Raven17

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • Blue Shell #7 Counter: 4
  • New Blue Shell #8 Counter: 5
  • No bolts

Final Standings After Week 11:

Rank Player Points
1 Will Shelton 86.5
2 cscott95 85
3 Displaced_Vol_Fan 82
4 Mitchell K 77
5 Harley 76.5
6 Jayyyy 73.5
7 daetilus 72
8 Mariettavol 64
9 Joel Hollingsworth 63.5
10 JWheel101 63.5
11 Randy Holtzclaw 59
12 Sam Hensley 58
13 Raven17 57.5
14 jfarrar90 54
15 Jrstep 45
16 Isaac Bishop 43.5
17 HT 38
18 LTVol99 36.5
19 Evan 29
20 Gavin Driskill 26
21 chadvolfan 25
22 Richard 15
23 Scott Jackson 5
24 Bulldog85 4
25 brandon galford 0
26 Pete -5
27 rdbulet96 -5
28 Rtbrwb66 -5