Category Archives: Football

The statistical comps for this Saturday’s matchup between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Missouri Tigers are all over the place. Part of the noise is likely due to Tennessee’s accelerated improvement curve under Jeremy Pruitt.

Another factor contributing to the noise, though, appears to be solely on Missouri’s side. The Tigers seem to be as likely to pile up numbers by rolling over opponents when they find something that works as they are to simply get beat by teams as good or better than they are. They scored 65 points against Memphis but only 14 against Kentucky. Even against similarly good teams, there’s a huge variance: Against No. 1 Alabama, they scored only 10 points, but against No. 2 Georgia, they put up 29.

So, the SPM thinks that Missouri is going to easily cover the Vegas spread this week, but I’m highly suspicious of its nearly 23-point spread. I’m still thinking Missouri wins, but in a much closer game. And yet, if the Tigers find something they can exploit against the Vols, they’ll convert that into a bunch of points.

Predictions

SPM: Missouri 39.5, Tennessee 16.8 (Missouri, -22.7)

Eye- and gut-adjusted: Missouri 31, Tennessee 27 (Missouri, -4)

Tennessee rushing yards: 180

Missouri rushing yards: 110

Tennessee passing yards: 240

Missouri passing yards: 280

Tennessee points: 27

Missouri points: 31

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 136.4 rushing yards per game, while Missouri is giving up 134.1 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Missouri, is Kentucky, which is giving up 141.4 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 215 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Missouri is Georgia, which is allowing 131.0. Tennessee got 66 on the ground against Georgia.

I believe the Vols’ run game has improved since Georgia, so I’m angling for something closer to last week. My guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Missouri is 180.

Missouri rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 152.7 rushing yards per game, while the Missouri run game is averaging 195.9 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Kentucky, which is getting 187.3 yards per game on the ground, and they got 77 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 203.1 rushing yards per game and got 201 against Tennessee.

So, early in the season, Florida got its average. Last week, the Vols held Kentuck and Benny Snell to less than half their average.

On the other hand, Missouri generally gets more than their opponents are giving. Against Memphis (giving up an average of 169.1), they got 273. Against Purdue (giving up 144.8), they got 233. This will become a theme as we continue to look at the numbers: When the Missouri Tigers find something that works, they milk that sucker dry. But when they struggle and they have no other options, they’ll just get beat.

So, it seems to me that Missouri’s numbers seem to be a little inflated due simply getting beat some of the time but also putting success on repeat when they can. Is Tennessee a team that can disrupt their playlist? That’s the main question this weekend, I think.

My guess on that all-important question Saturday is that this Tennessee team at this point in the season can play with these guys, so I’m going with Missouri having to work and being limited to about 110 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 204.5 passing yards per game, and Missouri is allowing 276.5, the worst pass defense the Vols have faced this year. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia. They’re allowing 233.7 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 172 against them. That almost seems like a different season at this point.

So, I think Tennessee may get well above its average in the passing game this week. Let’s call it 240 passing yards this weekend for the good guys.

Missouri passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 205.1 passing yards per game. Missouri is getting 277.5. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is getting 250.7 yards per game through the air, and they got 152 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama, which is averaging 323.7 passing yards per game and got 327 against Tennessee.

The Gamecocks managed not far above their average against Tennessee, and even high-powered Alabama only got its average against Pruitt’s guys.

I’m going with Missouri getting somewhere around its average of 280 passing yards against Tennessee this weekend.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 24.3 points per game, and Missouri is allowing 27.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is allowing 28.7 points per game, and Tennessee got 24 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Charlotte. They’re allowing 25.3 points per game, and Tennessee got 14 against them.

I’m thinking that Charlotte game was an outlier — a Tennessee team not yet good enough to sleepwalk through any game still falling prey to the temptation.

However, while the Vols offense has shown some flashes this season, they’re still really only good for a few touchdowns and a field goal or two per game, so my prediction is that Tennessee will get about what Missouri is giving, namely 24-27 points. Let’s call it 27 because I just drank my coffee.

Missouri scoring

Tennessee is allowing 24.7 points per game. Missouri is averaging 35.5. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 31.0 points, and they got 47 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is averaging 37.0 points and got 38 against Tennessee.

Does all of that mean that good teams put up more points than usual against Tennessee? The Florida game featured six turnovers. Georgia, well, Missouri’s not Georgia, right? Let’s hope. But against good defenses — Florida notwithstanding — they’re generally scoring between 28 and 35 points.

I’m going with Missouri putting up about 31 points in Neyland against Tennessee.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

The Vegas spread favors Missouri by 5.5-6, with an over/under of 55.5-56.5, which converts to somewhere around 31-25, Missouri.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 32.2% chance of winning and puts the score at Missouri 34.8, Tennessee 26.8, a spread of -8.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 31.7% chance of winning.

Left alone, the SPM says Missouri 39.5, Tennessee 16.8, a spread of -22.7.

After eye- and gut-adjustments, I’m going with Missouri 31, Tennessee 27, a spread of -4.

There’s not a lot going on prior to Saturday, so if you need to get some stuff done, use your Thursday and Friday well.

Gameday

 

The noon slate features a couple of past Vols’ opponents in Florida and Kentucky, but both should roll against lesser opponents. If you’re looking for something that might be a bit more enjoyable, check out No. 12 Syracuse and No. 3 Notre Dame at 2:30 on NBC. I know, it’s dumb for it to be on at 2:30, but hey.

Tennessee hosts Missouri at 3:30 on CBS, so that’s your main appointment for the day, but keep an eye on the score in the game between No. 9 West Virginia and Oklahoma State. Could be some fireworks there.

In the evening, evenly matched No. 16 Iowa State and No. 15 Texas meet for what should be a good game, and No. 24 Cincinnati has what may be the best chance to knock off an undefeated No. 11 UCF.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

It’s time to check in on the Vols’ rankings in all of the official NCAA statistical rankings.

Offense

Defense

Special Teams

Turnovers and Penalties

 

My new expected win total:

• This week: 6.1
• Last week: 5.3
• After Week 9: 5.55
• After Week 8: 6.0
• After Week 7: 6.3
• After Week 6: 5.0
• After Week 5: 4.9
• After Week 4: 4.55
• After Week 3: 5.5

With the Vols looking good this week against Kentucky, and with Missouri and Vanderbilt coming down to the wire, I’m changing the Missouri game back to 50% (from 40% last week) and Vanderbilt back to 60% (from 50% last week.) They are basically both tossups, but the Vols have shown that they can get things done. Whether they can do it consistently yet is the question.

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 5-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC East

• Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
• Beat ETSU, 59-3
• Beat UTEP, 24-0
• Lost to Florida, 47-21
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
• Beat #21 Auburn, 30-24
• Lost to #1 Alabama, 58-21
• Lost to South Carolina, 27-24
• Beat Charlotte, 14-3
• Beat No. 11 Kentucky, 24-7
• Missouri
• Vanderbilt

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 8-1 (6-1), 1st in Big 12, #7

• Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
• Beat YSU, 52-17
• NC State, Canceled
• Beat Kansas St, 35-6
• Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
• Beat Kansas, 38-22
• Lost to Iowa State, 30-14
• Bye
• Beat Baylor, 58-14
• Beat #17 Texas, 42-41
• Beat TCU, 47-10
• Oklahoma St.
• Oklahoma

These guys are legit. We’ll know just how legit over the next couple of weeks.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 8-2 (6-1), 1st in Southern

• Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
• Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
• Beat VMI, 27-24
• Beat Furman, 29-27
• Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
• Beat Gardner-Webb, 45-0
• Beat The Citadel, 26-23
• Lost to Wofford, 31-17
• Beat Western Carolina, 45-43
• Beat Mercer, 21-18
• Bye
• Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 1-9 (1-5), 6th in C-USA – West

• Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
• Lost to UNLV, 52-24
• Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
• Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
• Lost to UTSA, 30-21
• Lost North Texas, 27-24
• Bye
• Lost to LA Tech, 31-24
• Lost UAB, 19-0
• Beat Rice, 34-26
• Lost to MTSU, 48-32
• W Kentucky
• Southern Miss

Um, not legit.

Florida Gators

Current record: 7-3 (5-3), 2nd in SEC – East, #15

• Beat Charleston So, 53-6
• Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
• Beat Colorado St, 48-10
• Beat Tennessee, 47-21
• Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
• Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-27
• Bye
• Lost to #7 Georgia, 36-17
• Lost to Missouri, 38-17
• Beat South Carolina, 35-31
• Idaho
• Florida State

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 9-1 (7-1), 1st in SEC – East, #5

• Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
• Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
• Beat MTSU, 49-7
• Beat Missouri, 43-29
• Beat Tennessee, 38-12
• Beat Vanderbilt, 41-13
• Lost to #13 LSU, 36-16
• Bye
• Beat Florida, 36-17
• Beat #9 Kentucky, 34-17
• Beat Auburn, 27-10
• UMass
• Georgia Tech

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 6-4 (3-4), 4th in SEC – West

• Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
• Beat Alabama St, 63-9
• Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
• Beat Arkansas, 34-3
• Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
• Lost to Miss St, 23-9
• Lost to Tennessee, 30-24
• Beat Ole Miss, 31-16
• Bye
• Beat #20 Texas A&M, 28-24
• Lost to Georgia, 27-10
• Liberty
• Alabama

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 10-0 (7-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

• Beat Louisville*, 51-14
• Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
• Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
• Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
• Beat Louisiana, 56-14
• Beat Arkansas, 65-31
• Beat Missouri, 39-10
• Beat Tennessee, 58-21
• Bye
• Beat #3 LSU, 29-0
• Beat # 16 Mississippi State, 24-0
• The Citadel
• Auburn

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 5-4 (4-4), 4th in SEC – East

• Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
• Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
• Marshall, Canceled
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
• Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
• Beat Missouri, 37-35
• Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
• Bye
• Beat Tennessee, 27-24
• Beat Ole Miss, 48-44
• Lost to Florida, 35-31
• Chattanooga
• Clemson

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 4-6 (3-3), 4th in C-USA – East

• Beat Fordham, 34-10
• Lost to App St, 45-9
• Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
• Lost to UMass, 49-31
• Lost to UAB, 28-7
• Beat Western Kentucky, 40-14
• Lost to MTSU, 21-13
• Beat Southern Miss, 20-17
• Lost to Tennessee, 14-3
• Lost to Marshall, 30-13
• FIU
• FAU

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 7-3 (5-3), 2nd in SEC – East, #20

• Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
• Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
• Beat Murray State, 48-10
• Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
• Beat S Carolina, 24-10
• Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
• Bye
• Beat Vanderbilt, 14-7
• Beat Missouri, 15-14
• Lost to Georgia, 34-17
• Lost to Tennessee, 24-7
• MTSU
• Louisville

The Vols’ future opponents

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 6-4 (2-4), 5th in SEC – East

• Beat UT Martin, 51-14
• Beat Wyoming, 40-13
• Beat Purdue, 40-37
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
• Lost to South Carolina, 37-35
• Lost to Alabama, 39-10
• Beat Memphis, 65-33
• Lost to Kentucky, 15-14
• Beat #11 Florida, 38-17
• Beat Vanderbilt, 33-28
• Tennessee
• Arkansas

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 4-6 (1-5), 7th in SEC – East

• Beat MTSU, 35-7
• Beat Nevada, 41-10
• Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
• Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
• Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
• Lost to Georgia, 41-13
• Lost to Florida, 37-27
• Lost to Kentucky, 14-7
• Beat Arkansas, 45-31
• Bye
• Lost to Missouri, 33-28
• Ole Miss
• Tennessee

Tennessee made the third-biggest move of the week in S&P+, up a dozen spots from 82nd to 70th overall (shout out to Minnesota’s 41-10 beat down of Purdue, leaping 23 spots). The bad news: Missouri is a Top 25 team in S&P+. The Tigers actually fell three spots after a narrow victory over Vanderbilt, but are 23rd in the S&P+ rankings and would be favored by about a touchdown on the Vols. The good news: Vanderbilt is now the worst team in the league by the same metric.

Jarrett Guarantano in national rankings (via Sports Source Analytics): 27th in completion percentage, 24th in yards per attempt, and one of only eight quarterbacks with 200+ passing attempts and two or fewer interceptions. They showed this on the Jumbotron yesterday and I didn’t believe it, but it’s true (via Sports Reference): Guarantano’s career completion percentage of 63.8% is currently the best in school history. Daryl Dickey completed 63% of his passes, Peyton Manning 62.5%. Guarantano is at 65.1% in 2018; no Vol quarterback has hit that mark since Erik Ainge in 2006 (67%).

Things we’re still bad at: the Vols are 126th nationally in tackles for loss allowed, surrendering 8.3 per game. This is still a worse pace than last year (7.42 per game), but also still an improvement in terms of how far we’re going backward. Last year the Vols lost an average of 4.1 yards per TFL. This year it’s only an average of three yards lost. More runs for -1, fewer total disasters, etc.

Tennessee continues to be far more explosive this season. Last year the Vols had 38 plays of 20+ yards and 18 plays of 30+ yards. This year, through ten games: 45 plays of 20+ yards, 24 plays of 30+ yards.

Guarantano only has a pair of interceptions, but the Vols have now lost ten fumbles (and put it on the ground an additional five times). The ten fumbles lost is good for 111th nationally.

 

We’re just going to get this out of the way up front: Regardless of what happens the rest of this season, Jeremy Pruitt is the real deal.

Tennessee finally has a football coach who eats, breathes, and sleeps football. He doesn’t just talk circles around knowing the game; he actually knows it. That’s evidenced by the way this UT team is always in position to make plays whether it makes them or not and by just how much the Vols have improved in every facet of the game this year.

The talent level is nowhere near where it needs to be, yet there Tennessee was on Saturday, doing Tennessee things to Kentucky in a 24-7 win at Neyland Stadium despite that “No. 11” by the Wildcats’ name in the national rankings.

It was — from start to finish — the most dominant, complete, strong effort in every phase of the game that Tennessee has played since the 2016 win over Georgia that culminated with the Joshua Dobbs Hail Mary heroics to Jauan Jennings. Yes, UT beat Kentucky and Missouri that year, but we’re talking about strong efforts against good teams.

Make no mistake: Kentucky is a good team. The Wildcats aren’t great, and they are one-dimensional, which allowed the Vols to hone in on Benny Snell Jr. and the rushing attack on Saturday, but you don’t get to be 7-2 and playing Georgia just a week ago for a place in the SEC Championship Game if you aren’t a good team.

The Vols were just better on Saturday, and this was an even better outing than UT’s upset of Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

You want special teams?

The Vols hit a field goal and blocked one of its own when Shy Tuttle surged through the line and got his mit on a kick for his second swat of the year. Though Joe Doyle didn’t have his best punting effort, netting 38.7 yards per punt, he did have a 52-yarder and also pinned UK inside the 20 once.

How about defense?

Without question, this was the best effort of the Pruitt era. This team has taken on the no-nonsense approach of its coach, and the level of intensity was elevated from the very first snap of the game. Up 24-0, the Vols let up a little and started playing soft coverage, but other than a couple of lapses in those drives, it was a brilliant effort.

Darrell Taylor proved once again that when he is playing at a high level, the Vols are at their best up front. He had four sacks off the edge, just 0.5 short of Corey Miller’s single-game team record [also set against Kentucky]. The defensive tackles played their best game of the season, holding their own against UK’s strong offensive front and shutting down run lanes. And Marquill Osborne grabbed a pair of interceptions in relief of Bryce Thompson, who went out when it looked like he got his bell rung.

The Vols were in Snell’s head, and they most importantly got in quarterback Terry Wilson’s face for much of the game, causing the JUCO transfer signal-caller to simply throw the ball away more often than not. The Wildcats never could generate anything in the passing game, and UT was able to pin its ears back and get after him. There were blitzes from all different directions, several diverse looks in the front seven, and strong coverage on the back end.

It was an ideal effort when the Vols had to have it. Even when the offense struggled in little lulls and when UT turned the ball over with two late fumbles, the defense rose to the occasion.

So, how about that offense?

Yeah, it was excellent, too, after a slow start. While you may argue quarterback Jarrett Guarantano’s stats were better in the Auburn game and he made more of a difference with the deep ball, Saturday actually was a comparable effort.

Entering the game, the Wildcats had allowed just four big passing plays all season. Tennessee had five against them in one game.

None was bigger than the end-of-the-first-half Hail Mary after the Vols got in launching position for Guarantano. On the play, he stepped up in the pocket to avoid a pass rusher, lofted the ball up perfectly to Marquez Callaway, who high-pointed the ball by using his high school basketball skills and coming down with it to give the Vols a walk-off 17-0 lead entering the break.

When it came to the rushing attack, UT’s performance came from nowhere as the Vols piled up 215 yards on the ground. Sophomore Jordan Murphy’s 59-yard scamper on an end-around was a massive play, and then Ty Chandler and Tim Jordan had several moments of brilliance, too.

More on Murphy: the kid has the kind of speed Tennessee doesn’t have much of, and he caught a long pass and had that long run against the Wildcats. Getting him more involved moving forward would be a great idea for a UT team that could use a game-breaker.

As far as the offensive line goes, Guarantano took a few more hits again than you’d like, and Drew Richmond had a couple of costly false start penalties. But this was the best performance since UT had moments of neutralization against Auburn’s defensive front. Kentucky has a bunch of good linemen, but the Vols held their own. Guarantano had more time to throw, and it was evident by how well he played.

All over the field, Tennessee found stars.

Now, with Missouri and Vanderbilt remaining on the schedule, finishing 7-5 seems a little more possible than going 5-7, which says a lot about just what Saturday’s win did for this program. A week ago after a 14-3 sleepwalking win over Charlotte, nobody felt like the Vols were getting stronger.

But when they elevated the intensity, the entire team fed off one another.

Going 6-6 with this team and this roster would be a big accomplishment, especially after the blown opportunity against South Carolina and the Vols taking themselves out of any chance to beat Florida early in the year because of turnovers. Next week’s home game against Missouri is a very bad matchup for a UT team that doesn’t seem like its best-equipped to win in a shootout, and Drew Lock is capable of throwing the ball all over the place.

That game looks more winnable now, though. Tennessee threw it around a little, too, this week, and the running game could find some lanes against Mizzou’s front seven. Even though last week’s win over Charlotte was unimpressive, the defense played extremely well, so this is two weeks in a row that side of the ball has looked good. That’s called momentum, and, against UK, Micah Abernathy returned from injury and made his presence felt while Theo Jackson was inserted at the other safety spot and looked very good at times, too.

Next week, the Vols should get freshman star safety Trevon Flowers back, too, just in time to help combat the Tigers’ passing attack as Derek Dooley returns to Neyland as Mizzou’s offensive coordinator.

The Vanderbilt game could go either way, too, considering the Commodores are on a two-game winning streak over UT and that game is in Nashville.

But there’s one big difference between those Tennessee teams and this one: Pruitt is on the sideline instead of Butch Jones.

You can’t underestimate just how much these players are buying into Pruitt’s way of coaching, into playing for four quarters and approaching each play with a level of toughness. This isn’t spouting some cute phrase like “63 effort.” It’s actually going out there and putting it on the resume of a football field.

These Vols did that against Kentucky on Saturday, and it bodes well not only for the rest of the season but the future of the Pruitt era.

Is it possible UT drops the final two games of the season and all these good vibrations fade away? Sure, it is. This team has shown that, while it can play at a high level against good teams, it also has a narrow margin for error. Make mistakes and kill drives, and it can get ugly for the Vols in a hurry. Whether they win anymore this season hinges on just what Tennessee shows up.

The simple fact that we’re seeing the team that arrived at Neyland Stadium on Saturday and stayed for the outset is proof that the buy-in is coming for these players, and when Pruitt gets more of “his guys” who do it “his way” in there, the Vols are going to start winning. Obviously we can’t predict whether UT will start winning big, but any wins would be welcome for this program in the state it’s been in.

The Vols won Saturday against the nation’s No. 11 team. They dominated Kentucky, winning in Neyland Stadium against UK for the 17th straight time dating all the way back to 1984.

This was a good matchup for Tennessee because Kentucky can’t fling the ball all over the field and had shown an inability to be a consistent offensive team at times throughout the year. The Vols took advantage of that, doing everything they were supposed to do to make it difficult on UK. But Vegas had still installed Kentucky as a 5-point favorite by kickoff; the Vols won by 17.

The matchup won’t be as favorable next week, but Pruitt and Co. have to feel pretty good about this win, and unlike the huge upset of Auburn earlier in the year, Alabama doesn’t loom the next week to crush that momentum. Instead, it’s Missouri, then Vanderbilt. Two winnable games for a team that is now getting used to winning.

That’s a testament to Pruitt, his staff and these players for turning away from the infestation of losing that oozed from the end of the Jones era, taking the tough love from their new coach and responding with some moments that can make us all proud to be Tennessee Vols.

Saturday was one of those days.

Tennessee used three turnovers and an unreal third-and-long performance to beat Auburn. And despite a 21-9 third quarter lead, the right team won in Columbia two weeks ago with the Gamecocks dominant in their comeback. We assumed this – third downs, turnovers, etc. – was Tennessee’s specific path to victory, and it would take more talent for the Vols to be the right team.

Today, against the #11 Kentucky Wildcats, Tennessee was the right team.

It’s felt weird all week, Kentucky being favored and (rightly) ranked so high. And so now, on the heels of Tennessee’s 24-7 victory, there’s a tendency to treat it like business as usual; the Vols haven’t lost to Kentucky, ranked or otherwise, in Knoxville since 1984.

Let’s be clear: this was not business as usual. Not just for Jeremy Pruitt, but for the Vols in recent memory.

Two second half fumbles made the score look more respectable. But Tennessee gained 412 yards in 60 snaps, 6.86 yards per play. Kentucky gained 262 yards in 73 plays, 3.59 yards per play. That difference of 3.27 yards per play is the best for any Vol squad against power five competition since Lane Kiffin’s 2009 Vols beat Georgia 45-19 with a difference of 3.49 yards per play.

That day felt like validation. Again, it’s hard for a Tennessee coach to earn validation by beating Kentucky in football. But those Dawgs were unranked, and these Cats just outside the Top 10. It feels a bit like Tennessee’s blowout of #12 Northwestern in the Outback Bowl at the end of the 2015 season: the name can carry more weight than the ranking, so much so we might fail to appreciation the level of domination.

Much of the validation we’re looking for – as much as is available this year – is one more win away. Butch Jones beat a South Carolina team that finished fourth nationally, but a failure to earn bowl eligibility made that memory fade. As we’ve mentioned before, those Gamecocks might have been the best team Jones beat in his entire tenure. But at Tennessee, 5-7 is never going to qualify as a memorable year.

For today to last, the Vols need to win one more. But for now…today was quite memorable indeed.

Jarrett Guarantano averaged 9.9 yards per attempt and tear-dropped several balls, including the end-of-half hail mary. For a team that couldn’t run all year? Ty Chandler and Tim Jordan combined for 152 yards on 31 carries, plus 59 more for Jordan Murphy on the reverse. Two school records were tied or broken today, as Darrell Taylor notched four sacks and Guarantano continues to just not throw interceptions. He’s got a shot at Peyton Manning’s single-season record of four picks.

Tennessee wasn’t lucky or gimmicky. They simply dominated Kentucky on both sides of the ball, the type of performance that raises the ceiling of everyone involved.

Jeremy Pruitt now has two ranked wins in ten games. Lane Kiffin got one in his only season, Derek Dooley infamously went oh-for-three-years, and Butch Jones got the Gamecocks in year one and Georgia in year three. It’s a big deal.

Pruitt also got a schedule that some might rank the toughest in the nation through this week. Kentucky is the sixth Tennessee foe to have spent time in the Top 15 this season. The next two won’t make that list, but the Vols still need one of them to earn bowl eligibility. Missouri will present in many ways the opposite challenge from today; if Vanderbilt beats Ole Miss next week the Vols and ‘Dores could face each other with only one going through to the postseason.

There’s work left to do. But today was some of the best work we’ve seen in this decade. We almost always beat Kentucky. But we almost never beat a ranked team – or anyone – like this.

Go Vols.