Category Archives: Football

Rocky Top the Place to be on March 2nd

Knoxville is going to be buzzing on the weekend of March 2nd, as Tennessee will host Kentucky in a rematch of the Cats’ thrashing of the Vols two weeks prior.  Of course, both teams have two games in between now and then, with the Vols going on the road twice in very difficult games against LSU (Saturday) and Ole Miss (Wednesday).  Regardless of the outcome, however, the showdown will have big implications for both the conference as well as nationally in terms of NCAA Tournament seeding, so the CBS national broadcast will be showing a sold out (yet again) and hyped up Thompson Boiling Arena.

Coach Rick Barnes will be using this showcase for his program and will be bringing in a contingent of outright studs from the 2020 class as visitors.  Tennessee basketball has rarely if ever hosted this volume of talent for one weekend, and they’ll look to take full advantage of the opportunity:

C Walker Kessler is a 5-star and 247 Sports #12 player in the 2020 class and the Vols are going head to head with the likes of Duke, UNC, UVA, and Michigan.  As we wrote about here, Kessler fits the mold of what Barnes’s program is all about to a tee, and the fact that he’s taking an official visit is a strong sign of his interest.  The wrinkle in Kessler’s recruitment is the very distinct possibility that he could reclassify into the 2019 class.  Should he choose to do so, that would work to Tennessee’s advantage (though, perhaps not solely) as it’s been stated that UNC for sure does not have a spot for him in 2019 and that the same could be the case for Michigan as well.   Duke – who already has 5-star C Vernon Carey committed, might be reluctant to take him for 2019.  Additionally, while Tennessee does not currently have a 2019 spot open, the Vols appear to be recruiting Kessler with no reservations about making that work.  Kessler, as an official visitor, will no doubt be given the grand tour of everything from the brand spanking new and state of the art basketball facility as well as an in-depth view of Tennessee’s renowned skill development process to everything the University of Tennessee has to offer academically.  Barnes and Assistant Des Oliver were in to see Kessler at Woodward Academy on Wednesday. Expect the Vols to take a massive swing here that weekend.


Wing Keon Ambrose-Hylton – 4-star from Ohio who used to be at Chattanooga’s Hamilton Heights HS, 247 Sports #75 overall player, broke out last weekend at the Basketball Without Borders Global Camp, showing high energy and high level defensive ability. “KAH” is evidently considering the possibility of reclassifying as well, and as an interesting wing prospect he could be someone the Vols turn the heat up on depending on scholarship availability and what Kessler decides in that regard. 

Wing Corey Walker is a 5-star and 247 Sports #23 overall player in the class.  At 6’6 or even 6’7, he’s got the kind of all-around game – able to play inside and outside on both ends of the floor with a shot that projects out to NBA three-point range – that is tailor made for Barnes’s system.  Importantly, he’ll be making his second visit in just 2 weeks, as he just attended the Tennessee-Florida game.  He raved about the visit and quickly set this follow up trip, leading a handful of prominent national analysts to log predictions in favor of Tennessee landing him.  What’s unclear is whether a decision is imminent, and it’s also unclear as of now if this will be another unofficial visit or if Walker will be on his first of two allowed official trips to Tennessee.  Obviously the Vols would be thrilled to land his commitment this early over the likes of local powers UF and FSU along with others like Louisville and Michigan.  This will absolutely be one to watch.

SG Jayden Stone is 4-star originally from Australia and 247 Sports #49 overall player.  He’s a smooth shooter playing his high school basketball in Birmingham with Auburn among others hot on his trail.  Stone has had the Vols in his top group for a while and this will be his first look at Tennessee.

PG Jalen Cone is a 4-star from North Carolina and 247 Sports #121 overall player (interestingly the #60 overall player by Rivals).  He’s very small (listed anywhere from 5’9 to 5’11) but very quick and a pure PG.  He visited Knoxville last September so he’s familiar with the campus, but this will be his first time in TBA.  Depending on what Tennessee’s needs at the position are – that is, does Josiah James come back in 2020, do they otherwise need someone like a grad transfer who can provide immediate help, etc, Cone could be someone they look at strongly.

Although in recent seasons Barnes and his staff have zeroed in on a handful of prospects to target going into the summer before the early signing period, at this point the board is bigger than it’s ever been.  And as noted it contains the kind of talent that befits the kind of program Tennessee Basketball has become.  Along with the group above, Tennessee is firmly in the mix for Wing Keon Johnson (247 Sports #32 overall…Vols lead); Wing Samson Ruhsentzev (247 Sports #60 overall); PF/C PJ Hall (247 Sports #69 overall…Vols could very well lead); SG Matthew Murrell (247 Sports #80 overall); and C Dylan Cardwell (247 Sports #147 overall). 

Pruitt Joining in on the Fun

Tennessee Football will also be taking advantage of the big game atmosphere in TBA and will be bringing in a large number of high-level 2020 (and probably 2021 and even 2022) prospects to campus to take in the spectacle.   While the below list is relatively small, it will certainly grow by quite a bit and already contains four 4-star prospects, three of whom are making return visits.

DL Jacolbe Cowan is a high 4-star from Charlotte making his 4th visit to campus since Pruitt has been coach, along with attending the 2018 opener vs. WVU.  He’s a bgitime player at a major position of need, and while he’s shown no signs of making an early decision he clearly like the Vols a lot.  Getting him back to campus again – especially for a weekend like this – is without a doubt good news

RB/LB Trenton Simpson is another Charlotte native, the 6’3, 220 pound Simpson will be making his 2nd visit in 6 weeks.  The 4-star now has offers from OU/ND/LSU among others and will be facing a similar decision as Quarvaris Crouch in terms of which postion to play, and while the Vols do like him at RB – especially due to his size – his ranking is as a LB which shows his skill level there.  While he may not be on commitment watch, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him pledge to the Vols

ATH Demarcus Beckwith is a 4-star Alabama native with offers from Auburn and Michigan among others.  Beckwith got his first offer from the Vols in mid-January and plays WR and QB for his high school team while also standing out on the hardwood.  He’s a big kid who projects to both sides of the ball with high-level athleticism and would be an interesting piece.

WR Kris Abrams-Draine is a 4-star LSU commitment has been on campus once already but seems intrigued by fellow Mobile native Tee Martin.  Relatively small at 6’0, 160 pounds, he’s got good speed and plays a position that will see Tennessee sign upwards of 4 players, so the outcome of this trip could influence where he is on Tennessee’s board and vice versa.

With a nationally televised Top 10 (at worst) matchup in Thompson-Boiling Arena, both Coaches Rick Barnes and Jeremy Pruitt – who seem to have formed a quick friendship and absolutely recognize the importance of a symbiotic relationship to their respective recruiting efforts – will be using the weekend to showcase the University of Tennessee to the kind of prospects that will continue and even elevate the run that Barnes’s program is on while accelerating the rebuild that Pruitt has well underway.  It should be a weekend that pays big dividends down the road for both programs.

Can Vols Start a Whitehaven Pipeline in Football and Hoops?

It’s common knowledge that Coach Jeremy Pruitt is making Memphis a huge priority in the class of 2020.  The Vols have targeted upwards of ten Memphis prospects in the class, and Memphians make up four of the top 7 prospects in the state according to 247 Sports.  Pruitt and Co. have already made inroads into the city, having signed OL Jerome Carvin and RB (LB?) Jeremy Banks in his first class (along with DL Emmit Gooden and Greg Emerson, from West Tennessee towns of Brownsville and Jackson, respectively) in his first class and following that up with the addition of OL Melvin McBride from Memphis’s Whitehaven HS in December.

Whitehaven will continue to be a popular stop for the Vols staff, as the Tigers have a LB trio that features two four-stars in Bryson Eason and Martavius French, who have offers from most of the SEC as well as other national powers like Oklahoma, along with well as Tamarion McDonald who is currently being heavily pursued by Ole Miss.  Eason and French were both on campus twice last spring/summer, and as the Vols continue to look to rebuild the LB position both of those prospects will certainly be purused.

It’s not just football, though, where Whitehaven has some real prospects in the class of 2020.  SG Matthew Murrell was recently bumped to the #78 overall prospect and is widely considered to be the best prospect in the city of Memphis regardless of class outside of University of Memphis 2019 signee James Wiseman, the #1 overall player in that class.  As we discussed here, Murrell fits the bill of what Coach Rick Barnes is looking for in terms of the culture of the program, and the Vols have already spent quite a bit of time recruiting him.  Notably, as we’ve also detailed, Tennessee has set itself up for a monster class of 2020 in terms of sheer talent it’s in deep with, and Penny Hardaway certainly won’t let Murrell go without a fight (see what I did there?).  Whitehaven’s basketball team features another player with a Tennessee offer in 7’4 C Jordan Wilmore.  Wilmore is definitely a project and given how Tennessee has positioned itself not just with so many bigtime players in the class but also with a handful of big men like PJ Hall and even recent visitor Dylan Cardwell, Wilmore is likely down the list currently.  But Tennessee did offer him in January, and Barnes does not hand out offers lightly, so while he’s raw he could definitely be one to watch.

McBride is a gregarious individual who no doubt will be doing some peer recruiting between now and when he enrolls in Knoxville over the summer, which won’t hurt in the least.  So as both head coaches Pruitt and Barnes spend time all over Memphis, expect there to be a Big Orange presence in the halls of Whitehaven HS for the next year as the Vols look to build a pipeline on both the gridiron and the hardwood. MartavʼnPYl

Tennessee is Recruiting For Championships in Blue Chip Ratio

Team rankings are exciting, but can also be deceiving. The better benchmark is SB Nation’s blue chip ratio: if you want to be in the national championship conversation, at least half of your signees need to be four-or-five star players.

Phillip Fulmer hired Jeremy Pruitt over easier and safer choices because he wanted to be in the national championship conversation. While the Vols were making slow but noticeable progress on the field in his first year, his first full recruiting class is already on the right side of the ratio.

With the additions of Darnell Wright and Henry To’oto’o, 13 of Tennessee’s 23 signees are blue chip prospects in the 247 Composite. That’s 56.5%. And that’s the best Tennessee has done in blue chip ratio in a long, long time.

Here’s the post-Fulmer era in blue chip ratio:

YearBlue ChipSigneesRatio
201913230.565
20188220.364
20175280.179
201610230.435
201516300.533
201416320.500
20134230.174
201210220.455
20119270.333
201012270.444
20099210.429

It gets a little less reliable in tracking the further you go back, but 2019 appears to be Tennessee’s best performance in blue chip ratio since Fulmer’s 2005 class (17 of 26 in Rivals, which would certainly qualify at 65.4%).

You can see where Butch Jones was putting the pieces together to be in the conversation in 2014 and 2015, both times without much on-field success to stand on yet, to his credit. But it’s also true those 2014 and 2015 classes were unusually high on in-state and legacy prospects. This year’s class includes four-star legacy Jackson Lampley and four-star RB Eric Gray from Memphis. But the other 11 blue chip prospects are from Georgia, North Carolina, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and California.

Jones never turned those recruiting classes into more than 9-4 seasons, and it remains to be seen if Pruitt can come closer to the championship conversation. But this class is worth more praise than a generic, “12th in the nation/not bad for a 5-7 team.” If what we saw finalized today becomes the norm, the Vols will have one of the most important pieces to the championship puzzle.

Tennessee signs 5-star OL Darnell Wright

It’s not as much of a surprise as Tennessee closing the deal on Henry To’oto’o today, but it’s every single bit as welcome: The Vols have signed 5-star offensive lineman Darnell Wright.

And with that, Tennessee put the finishing touches on one of, if not the, best offensive line classes in the country this recruiting season. That it was THE position of need is just icing on the cake.

Wright (5-star, 247 Composite .9944) is joined by fellow 5-star Wanya Morris (.9871), 4-star Jackson Lampley (.9124), and 3-stars Chris Akporoghene (.8602) and Melvin McBride (.8830). The class also includes 4-star tight end Jackson Lowe (.8947) and 3-star tight end Sean Brown (.8635).

More on the Vols’ class of 2019 later. Jeremy Pruitt speaks to the media about the class at 4:30.

Vols get To’oto’o too

So much for the lazy, ho-hum National Signing Day for the Tennessee Volunteers, who just landed high 4-star linebacker Henry To’oto’o over Alabama and Washington.

The Vols had been in play early until momentum seemed to shift last week and narrowed the race to Washington and Alabama. But in the last 24 hours or so, word began to spread that To’oto’o was indeed seriously considering Tennessee, and he made it official on ESPNU just after 3:00 ET this afternoon.

We’ll have more on To’oto’o’s commitment later and what it means to Tennessee’s class, but for now just know that he said it was the family atmosphere and the home feel that drew him to sign with Jeremy Pruitt and the Volunteers. The opportunity for early playing time and Pruitt’s experience with guys like Reuben Foster at Alabama didn’t hurt, either.

Vols Recruiting: Almost There

Some thoughts headed into the penultimate weekend before the February Signing Day

Pruitt Learning Danger of Reaching

As the final two weeks before the February National Signing Day wind down, Tennessee and its fans find themselves in a situation they have never been in before.  After signing 19 players in December and then adding two high profile transfers in former 5-stars DL Aubrey Solomon from Michigan and ATH Deangelo Gibbs from UGA, Tennessee finds itself with very few spots to fill and (fortunately) in great shape for some outstanding players.  OL Darnell Wright and LBs Henry To’oto’to and Chris Russell all look to be greater than 50/50 shots for the Vols and without a doubt having a spot reserved for them in Knoxville.  Those are without a doubt the top choices for Tennessee.

This is a much different position than Coach Jeremy Pruitt and Co. were in at this time last year, as the new staff scrambled to fill its initial class.  In the end, Tennessee signed a handful of potential impact players like LB JJ Peterson, DL John Mincey and Kurrott Garland, and S Treveon Flowers.  However, after swinging and missing on multiple 5-stars like two California-based DBs that signed with Southern Cal as well as LB Quay Walker (UGA), Tennessee frankly reached for a handful of late signees in DB Kenneth George and WR Cedric Tillman and then grad transfers RB Madre London and QB Keller Chryst.  Tillman in particular at least has the measurables to project as an SEC-level contributor at WR, and one could make a case that Chryst was needed given the lack of depth behind Jarrett Guarantano.  And let’s be clear, especially in this case hindsight is 20/20, as Guarantano ended up having a good year and stayed healthy enough to where Chryst’s appearances could 100% have been taken by Will McBride without making a difference in a single win or loss in 2018 for Tennessee. 

However, because of these personnel decisions – and including the later addition of CB Bryce Thompson to the 2018 class and then the two new transfers Solomon and Gibbs, all no-brainers and potential program changers – Pruitt and Tennessee find themselves likely unable to take some really good players that would like to be Vols:

Memphis DL Kristian Williams in particular is pretty obviously waiting on the green light from Tennessee, and though he has some good alternatives he seems likely to wait until Signing Day before inking with anyone else.

For however Tennessee feels about current DL commitment Leddarrius Cox – and while that’s unclear the real interest from Auburn and Ole Miss shows he’s at least an SEC-level DL – he would like to sign with Tennessee.

Then there’s DB Jammie Robinson, who at worst has Tennessee in the mix with Auburn, South Carolina and Kentucky but absolutely could potentially choose Tennessee as his leader pending scholarship availability.

Even 5-star WR George Pickens, an Auburn commitment who’s still looking around, might not be getting the full-court press from Tennessee that he otherwise would given the lack of spots and the potential that he might not qualify.  That remains to be seen of course as he is so damn good.

And finally there’s South Carolina JUCO DL commitment Jahkeem Green (more on him below) who also has some grade concerns but is likely a plug-and-play DL for either Tennessee or South Carolina should he get into school.  Volquest.com broke the news that he’ll be OV’ig in Knoxville this weekend, but again with the lack of room it’s to be determined how hard Tennessee can really push.  That said, there is some real fear from the Carolina side here.

The good news is that the 2019 class will feature exactly zero reaches, and there isn’t one signee or transfer who you’d definitively trade out for one of the guys left on the board not named Wright/To’oto’to/Russell. It’s quite simply a very good-to-outstanding class that massively upgrades the talent and depth across the 2019 roster as compared to a year ago.  Further, should Tennessee end up being able to monkey with the numbers in order to fit more than three signees into this class, the other good news is that the players above are absolutely high quality players that no one will be looking back at in January 2020 lamenting Tennessee taking them.

Similarly, as we first floated a month ago, it seems like the potential for Anthony Harris blueshirting – should he qualify – is very likely. Harris is a bonafide stud while he could play on either side of the ball as a S or a WR the electric athlete has the kind of size and ball skills that Pruitt covets in the secondary. Were the Vols to go that route with Harris and add him to the 2020 class numbers along with Solomon and likely anyone else they add past three more signees, they’d simply be adding another bigtime player to the roster, in stark contrast to reaching for warm bodies.

Pruitt playing chess while Muschamp plays checkers

With the news that Tennessee is bringing in the aforementioned JUCO DL Green, this is yet another prospect for whom Pruitt is playing games with South Carolina coach Will Muschamp.  First Pruitt snuck in and stole future All-SEC CB Bryce Thompson out from under Muschamp’s nose.  Then, in this cycle Pruitt offered ATH Xavier Leggette, who South Carolina was hoping to blueshirt but was forced to sign in December for fear of Tennessee taking him.  Finally, with Green, Carolina was hoping that his longtime commitment would keep others from offering him while they figure out his academic situation and potentially sign someone else with that 2018 spot.  However, Pruitt could once again – at worst – be forcing Mushcamp’s hand.  At best, because Green is an outstanding JUCO DL with the ability to play at a high level right away in the SEC, Tennessee can use this fact, along with the recent departure of Carolina DL Coach Lance Thompson and the Vols longtime interest (they offered last summer), Tennessee can figure out the numbers enough to sign him and get him into school.

Thoughts on Chris Russell

There’s been lots of speculation about Dyersburg, TN LB Chris Russell, for whom Tennessee entered the picture late relative to Arkansas and who also took an OV to Texas A&M last weekend.  The wildest of that speculation is that some think he’s a lock to Arkansas and that Tennessee is in 3rd.  I don’t buy it for a second.  Here’s why:

Parents like Tennessee: Check

Lives in a very pro-Tennessee town: Check

Vol staff not taking him for granted and working him very hard: Check

Final OV: Check

Easy path to early playing time: Check

While I understand why Arkansas in particular is a factor here, as they boast a well-respected DC in John Chavis and have also been recruiting him longer than just about anyone, I’m willing to predict that – unless Russell commits to Arkansas this weekend and cancels his OV to Tennessee for the following (and final) weekend – he signs with the Vols. 

Tennessee Football hires Tee Martin

Tee Martin’s coming home.

Martin’s return to Rocky Top is yet another wave of refreshing news for Vols fans. As with the Chaney news a few days ago, there are a lot of reasons to like this hire: He brings even more championship experience and reminds us of better days, he’s an up-and-coming offensive mind and superb recruiter, and his addition to the staff further fuels the momentum gathering in Knoxville.

All the feels

Of course, Tee Martin is associated with many of our most fond memories.

Those were the days, huh?

Coaching acumen

But there is no way in Hades that Jeremy Pruitt is making any hire for the sake of nostalgia. No-sir-eee. (Sorry — had to do it.)

Since his time at Tennessee, Tee Martin has made a name for himself in the coaching ranks as an up-and-comer. After his playing days were over, Martin started coaching in 2006 at Morehouse. If you can tell me where Morehouse is without asking Google, Alexa, or some other computer infiltrating our homes so they can destroy humanity ten years from now, then you’re doing better than me.

After Morehouse, Martin coached high school ball for a couple of years and then started climbing the college ladder, starting with a gig coaching quarterbacks at New Mexico in 2009 and then a two-year stint at Kentucky coaching wide receivers. He was also passing game coordinator for the Wildcats in 2011.

Martin then went out west to coach wide receivers for the USC Trojans. In 2014, he was promoted to passing game coordinator and then served as offensive coordinator and wide receivers coach from 2016 to 2018. USC struggled this past season, and Martin was relieved of his play-calling duties midway through the season. Not sure what happened there, but failure is practically inevitable somewhere along the way for football coaches.

Martin’s name has been batted around the past few weeks as a viable candidate for some high-level positions, including offensive coordinator at Miami, but the Vols, Jeremy Pruitt, and Phillip Fulmer have lured him back to Rocky Top, presumably with a pitch that they are building something special and need another special person like Martin to make it happen.

Recruiting acumen

Much of Martin’s quick rise through the coaching ranks is largely attributable to his reputation as an elite recruiter. He finished second in 247Sports’ coach recruiting rankings in 2014 and 2015, and he finished first in 2016. During those three years, Martin signed 22 4-star players and 11 5-stars. Only three of those 5-star guys were wide receivers, too, so it’s not a position thing with Martin. He just knows how to talk to elite athletes and get them to commit.

For more on Martin’s impact on Tennessee recruiting, check out this post from DylanVol.

The rush of momentum

It’s almost as easy to get us Tennessee football fans to believe in the next season as it is to get small children to believe in Santa Claus. Wanting to believe makes it easy to believe.

On the other hand, ten consecutive years of disappointment has a way of reducing your want-to. Today, it’s almost as difficult to get Tennessee fans to continue to believe as it is to get 18-year-olds to believe the fat man’s coming down the chimney. Too much disappointment can petrify the softest of hearts.

But you know what? The recent tide of good news has been relentless in chipping away at this old man’s hard heart. Alabama’s defense looked lost in the national championship game without Jeremy Pruitt. Georgia’s football team sulked its way to an embarrassing loss in its bowl game and then lost both of its coordinators, one of them to us. The Vols now have on their sideline the defensive coordinator and the offensive coordinator that went head-to-head in last year’s national championship game. Woo.

The basketball team is rolling, beating Georgia by nearly 50 points and Missouri by nearly 25, and turning a one-possession slugfest against hated rival Florida into an entry on the resume that the new NET rankings will view as a blowout due to the 10-point cap on margin of victory. Woo again.

Football hired Jim Chaney. Woo. Jauan Jennings is foregoing an NFL opportunity to return for his final season. Yee-haw. And now, we’ve hired Tee Martin, who’s not only beloved on Rocky Top but also respected by high school coaches and players all over the south — including the all-important states of Alabama and Georgia — and the west coast to boot. Ahem. Woo.

We fans have become gradually more jaded over the past ten years, and with everything’s that gone wrong, that’s understandable.

But good people just keep coming back to Rocky Top. They must believe in what’s happening here.

And that is a trend genuinely worthy of renewed hope.

Where 2018 Ranks in the Last 50 Years of Tennessee Football

We use S&P+ during football season (and KenPom for basketball) a lot on our site. Part of it comes from the 10+ years we spent at SB Nation, where Bill Connelly continues to do great work with advanced statistics. And specific to Tennessee, the longer the Vols struggle, the more I believe it’s important to find good ways to distinguish what’s happening year to year.

S&P+ isn’t the best way to rank teams; I still work for the head-to-head police, still believe Penn State should’ve been in over Ohio State two years ago, etc. But S&P+ is one of the best ways to rate teams. It doesn’t judge wins and losses, but places a value on every play, adjusted for each opponent. You can read all about what goes into it here, but in general it includes five factors:

  • Success Rate (staying on schedule with five yards on first down, 70% of what’s left on second down, and converting third/fourth downs).
  • Points Per Play
  • + Scoring Opportunities (what you did inside the 40), Field Position, and Turnover Margin

Not only does S&P+ assign value to every snap, it gives a percentile performance for each game and, ultimately, the season. It’s a good way to distinguish between seasons that finish with similar records, and track a coach and program over time.

Football Outsiders has S&P+ data going back to 2005, including offensive and defensive unit rankings. But a couple off-seasons ago, Bill Connelly published an estimated S&P+ rating for teams as far back as 1970 (all of those links can be found here from Football Study Hall).

We pointed out at the time how S&P+ didn’t rate 1998 as Tennessee’s best team of the 90’s, but instead leaned toward Heath Shuler’s 1993 squad. The ’98 Vols won five one-possession games, plus a fourth quarter comeback in the SEC Championship Game. The ’93 Vols lost to Florida by seven and tied Alabama before ultimately stumbling in the Citrus Bowl against Penn State. But they also decimated everyone else, including a 32-point win over #22 Georgia and 35 points over #13 Louisville. Shuler finished second in the Heisman balloting and the team set a school record for points per game that still stands.

Again, it’s not the best way to rank seasons – ’93 in particular struggles in that department because it lacks a signature win – but it is a good way to ask yourself, “Who would we least like to face?” And the 50 years (okay, 49) of estimated percentile performance give us a ton of context for where Tennessee was, is, and could go.

So, using the data from Football Study Hall, here’s every Tennessee team since 1970 in S&P+, from best to worst:

TeamS&P+ PercentileRecord
197097.9411-1
199397.209-2-1
199796.4811-2
200196.4811-2
199996.009-3
199895.8713-0
197295.8210-2
198595.469-1-2
199594.7111-1
200793.3010-4
200692.809-4
199092.159-2-2
198991.8111-1
200991.207-6
199290.809-3
199689.8910-2
197489.477-3-2
199487.968-4
199187.909-3
197187.2810-2
198487.267-4-1
200483.5610-3
200382.7410-3
201582.509-4
197982.487-5
201481.407-6
200581.105-6
198780.4810-2-1
198380.079-3
201677.609-4
200075.718-4
198075.445-6
201273.605-7
201173.205-7
197572.887-5
200271.068-5
201369.805-7
200868.805-7
197362.758-4
198659.517-5
197659.286-5
197756.324-7
198255.466-5-1
197855.045-5-1
201055.006-7
198847.165-6
201839.005-7
198135.638-4
201717.404-8

The first data point is the highest: the 1970 Vols lost to #17 Auburn in week two, but didn’t fall again. They beat #13 Georgia Tech 17-6, then beat Alabama 24-0 and Florida 38-7 in consecutive weeks. LSU lost a pair of non-conference games in 1970 but went undefeated in the SEC; as the Vols and Tigers did not meet, #5 LSU won the SEC and got a shot at #3 Nebraska in the Orange Bowl, with an outside chance at the national championship. The #4 Vols went to the Sugar Bowl and beat #11 Air Force 34-13. The Cornhuskers beat LSU to claim the national championship when #1 Texas and #2 Ohio State both lost their bowl games; had the Vols played Nebraska instead they too would’ve been playing for the title.

Shuler’s ’93 Vols are second on the list, meaning the two highest-rated teams of the last 50 years both had first-year coaches in Bill Battle and Phillip Fulmer. From there, it’s the list you expect: the most memorable seasons from the decade of dominance, Condredge Holloway’s 1972 Vols, and the 1985 Sugar Vols.

Here’s what it looks like over time:

And here’s the Google Sheet where you can interact with the data.

So…what can we learn here?

The Last Two Years Really Have Been Rock Bottom

In S&P+, the 2017 season is the worst of the last 50 years by a significant margin. The Vols went 4-8, but it was more than that. The Vols were statistically dominated in the win over Georgia Tech. And UT was both non-competitive in five blowout losses, and failed to measure up play-for-play in close losses to Florida, South Carolina, and Kentucky. The S&P+ win expectancy in those three games: 19%, 23%, and 33%, plus just 23% against Georgia Tech.

Only 1981 kept 2018 from making it back-to-back years at the bottom of S&P+. The ’81 Vols are an interesting example of how S&P+ works: Tennessee went 8-4, but the four losses were by 44 to Georgia, 36 to USC, 19 to Alabama, and 11 to Kentucky. Meanwhile the Vols beat Auburn and Georgia Tech by identical 10-7 scores, beat Vanderbilt by four, and survived Wichita State 24-21. Play-for-play, the ’81 Vols were really bad…but they found a way to win every close game. And that team, and the ones to follow, help teach us a good lesson.

The Early 80’s as a Guide?

The records didn’t show straight-line improvement for Johnny Majors from 1981-84: 8-4, 6-5-1, 9-3, 7-4-1. But in S&P+, the Vols were getting stronger every year, laying the groundwork for the SEC title in 1985.

The 2018 Vols are third-worst in S&P+ in the last 50 years…but they were significantly better than their predecessors. It’s easy to make things pass/fail: if the Vols had beaten South Carolina, Missouri, or Vanderbilt to get bowl eligible at 6-6, it would’ve seemed a lot easier to praise Jeremy Pruitt for his year one work. But play-for-play, Tennessee made progress.

You always start with wins and losses, and in the end, you circle back there. But in between, it’s worth valuing every play. And while there’s a long way to go back to the top, Tennessee took a solid first step away from the bottom in 2018.

The Ups and Downs of Any Program

S&P+ puts 2006 and 2007 in a different light too. After an abundance of close wins in 2003 and 2004 (and close losses in 2005), the Vols were far closer to their 90’s neighbors in 2006: one-point loss to the eventual champs, four-point loss to Top 10 LSU, and significant blowouts of Cal and Georgia. The Vols got blown out three times in 2007, but the weight of the ongoing Fulmer conversation probably made us undervalue Tennessee blowing out Georgia and Arkansas in return.

2008 was still the worst year of the Fulmer era; the last ten years may have changed your mind, but in the moment there were certainly reasonable arguments for moving on in wins and losses. But play-for-play, the Vols weren’t far away in the two years before Fulmer was out, and nearly returned to the same form with Fulmer’s players in Lane Kiffin’s one and only year.

Since then, things have trended downhill in a hurry. Even what some may think of as the good Butch Jones years – 2014-2016 – were, both play-for-play and in the end result, several steps behind Tennessee’s best days.

I’m not sure it’s realistic to make the 90’s the definition of success; in the last 50 years that’s the ceiling, but not always where we live. Since 1970 the Vols are better understood as a program capable of hitting those high notes – and its current athletic director hired a coach with that possibility in mind – but also one that has its ups and downs, and is currently in the middle of a historic down. Progress, for Fulmer and Pruitt, looks first like getting the Vols above the thresholds Dooley and Butch reached but could not surpass. At this point, in these ratings, it’s still a steeper climb than either of them faced. But looking for said progress is part of the fun. It’ll always be easier when the Vols are winning close games instead of losing them. But so far for Jeremy Pruitt, progress is there.

Any program is a roller coaster over the course of 50 years. We come back every fall because we love the ride itself, not just the wins. History suggests we’ve never been as low as in the last two years…but history also shows the heights this program can attain. And we’re in the middle of a basketball season showing us you can always go higher.

For the Vols, and for Pruitt, right now it’s simply about going forward.

6 reasons Vols fans should be excited about the Jim Chaney hire

247Sports’ Patrick Brown broke the news last night that Tennessee has hired Jim Chaney as its new offensive coordinator. The school just made the news official.

After a long, drawn-out process that rivaled last year’s search for a new head coach in time if not in drama, it appears that Tennessee has once again ended up better off for having taken its time. Here are a few reasons why this hire is an absolute homerun for the Big Orange.

Offensive Productivity

This is the one you’ll read about the most today, so I won’t spend much time on it. But Chaney knows what to do with great players, and he’s able to develop good players into great ones. Sure, the Georgia Bulldogs are stocked with elite talent, but as Tennessee fans can attest, just having highly-recruited players running around out there doesn’t necessarily mean they’re going to produce up to their potential.

That shouldn’t be a problem with Chaney.

Chaney’s not only done well with a roster full of blue-chippers at Georgia, he also managed to provide one of the bright spots for a Tennessee program woefully lacking them over the past decade. As OC for the Vols in 2012 — a season otherwise so bad it got Derek Dooley fired — Chaney guided Tyler Bray, Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter, and three future NFL offensive linemen to a prolific 36 points per game. Chaney was never the problem during Dooley’s time on Rocky Top, and his productivity and offensive prowess will be an asset to Jeremy Pruitt and the Tennessee program.

A lateral move to division rival

We’ve described rebuilding in the SEC as rebuilding during the hurricane before, and, well, it’s apt. SEC coaches don’t have the luxury of waiting for sunny skies to get to work.

They’re building with the left hand and battling with the right.

It’s an especially difficult task for anyone at the helm of the Tennessee program during Alabama’s reign of terror due to the Vols’ annual rivalry with the Tide, and Georgia getting nearly as good is terrible news for a program trying to re-make something nearly from scratch.

So anything that both makes Tennessee better and weakens an annual rival is a good thing. Regardless of Georgia fans complaining about Chaney when they happen to lose to other good teams, Chaney was the guy the coaching staff wanted, and now he’s not only gone, he’s defected to Rocky Top. He’s switched sides in the middle of the battle.

It’s not just the re-balancing of power, either. It’s also the regional and national perception. The Bulldogs have had a tough month. They lost a lead over Alabama in the SEC Championship and eventually lost the game. They were left out of the playoff, and then they lost their heart and their bowl game. It’s a different sport, but because things tend to run together in college sports, I’ll also throw in that the Tennessee hoops team just absolutely thumped Georgia. Now Chaney throws in with the Vols.

Fun. I like it. I also like the whispers that some NFL teams might be considering Kirby Smart as a head coach. Nick Saban may have been-there-done-that, but Smart hasn’t. He should try it. Really. Totally unbiased opinion here.

Maybe Georgia will be fine. But it sure looked like Alabama missed Jeremy Pruitt against Clemson Monday night, didn’t it?

Fit

Jeremy Pruitt is old school. You can tell by looking at him, watching him work, and by analyzing the teams that he’s coached. So it was a bit strange to hear some of the names bandied about during the offensive coordinator search, names like Kendal Briles and Mike Yurcich. Fair or not, guys like that, whose resumes are built on spread concepts and tempo, feel like shiny new objects.

Jim Chaney is not that. Like Pruitt, he’s old school. He is flexible enough to be able to incorporate new wrinkles that work, but at heart, he’s exactly what Pruitt expects in an offensive mind.

Upgrade in experience

I refrained from writing this all last preseason and throughout the entire fall, but when Pruitt’s staff was announced, one of my biggest fears stemmed from the fact that so many of them were getting promotions into positions for which they were unproven. Pruitt himself was stepping up from coordinator to head coach, and his coordinators were primarily former position coaches. Whether Tyson Helton had any real experience as offensive coordinator calling plays was always cloudy, but if he had any, it wasn’t much. It seemed that nearly everybody had a learning curve to climb.

Not so with Chaney, whose first job as a Power 5 offensive coordinator was all the way back in 1997 for Purdue. Except for a brief period as a position coach in the NFL, he’s been one ever since.

It’s not that Pruitt’s staff doesn’t have experience, but many of the key guys last season had been learning something new. Chaney brings some much-needed experience to the staff, and the fact that he’s on the offensive side of the ball should allow Pruitt to focus even more on the defense, which, let’s be honest, also needs some work.

No apparent head-coaching aspirations

One of the oddest things about Jim Chaney is his incredibly long-tenure as a coordinator without ever having served as a head coach (the one-game as Vols interim notwithstanding.) As I said above, Chaney’s been an offensive coordinator since 1997, except for a three-year period as offensive line and tight ends coach in the NFL. He was part of Lane Kiffin’s Coaching Chimera in 2009, and when the Tennessee Rumspringa was over, the entire Chimera disappeared into the dark night with the exception of Jim Chaney. Derek Dooley was many things, but not-smart wasn’t one of them, and he persuaded Chaney to stay. Chaney didn’t leave Rocky Top until Dooley was fired and Butch Jones brought in his own guys. That didn’t work.

I can’t seem to find it, but I have a vague recollection of Chaney once telling Tennessee media while serving as Vols coordinator that he was content as a life-long coordinator and simply didn’t want to be a head coach. Maybe I made that up. Maybe that’s graciously responding to an insulting question. I don’t know. But he’s been a really good coordinator for a really long time, and in a world of ladder-climbing and self-ambition, he appears to have that rare talent of being content. The chief problem with coordinators is that they either don’t succeed or they leave when they do. If I’m reading him right, Chaney seems to be the perfect combination of excellence and stability.

Recruiting? Maybe?

I don’t know if Jim Chaney is a prolific recruiter. Heck, maybe he hates it or is terrible at it or something, and maybe that’s the main reason he has no ambition to become a head coach.

But I do know that he’s served as the offensive coordinator for the Georgia Bulldogs that past few seasons and that the Bulldogs are currently neck-and-neck with Alabama for recruiting the most talent to their respective campuses. For what it’s worth, 247Sports credits Chaney with landing some of Georgia’s most impressive guys. There are a lot of stars on that list.

If the hiring of Chaney can help Tennessee to lure more and better talent to Knoxville than Athens, that will be a very good thing. At the very least, you’d have to think that losing a coordinator would introduce some uncertainty into the mix for guys on the fence.

Tennessee’s search for an offensive coordinator to replace Tyson Helton may have taken forever, but it seems clear that the Vols have once again stuck the landing and somehow ended up with an upgrade at an incredibly important staff position.

Vols football adds a late trio of elites in Quavaris Crouch, Aubrey Solomon, and Eric Gray

Early Signing Day was a pretty good day for the Vols. They secured 20 players who signed on the dotted line to help Jeremy Pruitt flip the roster from the largely forgettable Butch Jones era.

The past two days have been even better.

The Vols brought in three elite prospects over the past two days, players who possess exactly the kind of star potential necessary to pull them back to the top tier of the SEC. Even though there were whispers about Pruitt’s inability to close following the lackluster late signing period last year and some misses on late-swing prospects this cycle, that narrative is now tired.

Quavaris Crouch provided the biggest splash of the bunch tonight when he chose Tennessee over Clemson and Michigan, stunning the college football world that thought he’d choose one of those elite programs over a UT team that is trying to rebound from a 5-7 season. Instead, things started turning in the Vols’ favor when he visited Knoxville on the final weekend before early signing period after a slam-dunk in-home visit by Pruitt, lead recruiter Brian Niedermeyer, and others.

https://twitter.com/Vol_Football/status/1076307204821737472

Crouch joined 4-star Memphis running back Eric Gray, who chose the Vols on Thursday over Michigan, South Carolina, Ole Miss and others. Also, before Crouch’s massive announcement Friday night, the Vols announced former 5-star recruit and Michigan transfer defensive lineman Aubrey Solomon will play his final two years of eligibility in Knoxville. Though he may have to sit a year due to transfer rules, he’s going to seek a hardship waiver, according to several reports.

Those are big, but Crouch may be the biggest of all the news so far.
Crouch is a 6’3″, 230-pound dynamic two-way athlete who projects as a star on either side of the ball. Though he could probably be one of if not the nation’s top running back prospect, he’ll probably start his career at Tennessee at outside linebacker. He can change the entire face of UT’s defense, and that corps all of a sudden looks a ton more athletic with him, JJ Peterson, Jeremy Banks and Roman Harrison. If the Vols can keep Lakia Henry in the fold, that’s an impressive, physically gifted group.
The recruitment for the big man has been weird, to say the least, but credit the Vols for being relentless and never giving up. That didn’t pay off in trying to lure Bill Norton or Zion Logue, but it did with Wanya Morris, and it did with Crouch. Maybe it’ll do the same with Darnell Wright.

Crouch had Tennessee at the top of his wish list for a long time throughout the summer and leading up to the season before UT went out and struggled in his hometown of Charlotte in the season opener against West Virginia. Not really interested in a rebuild, Crouch started favoring Clemson and Michigan while keeping the Vols on the periphery.

Still, he visited UT during the season and then when he came on the final weekend leading up to the early signing period, it seemed things may be trending in the right direction. The Vols closed the deal, and it’s a huge pull to get him in Tennessee orange.

Could we see some future running back packages for the massive man? It’s certainly possible, but the Vols need to fix the defense, and Crouch can go a long way in doing that. He missed his senior season with a hip injury, but he’s expected to be ready and rolling.

Speaking of running backs, Gray brings elite quickness and vision to the position for the Vols. It’s not out of the question that he can be an immediate starter, even with Ty Chandler and Tim Jordan in the backfield. Yes, he’s that good, and he has that “it” factor UT needs. He’ll be a great backfield mate to those two at the very least. Getting Gray also allows the Vols to go after a bigger back or two in the 2020 cycle.

At 5’10”, 195 pounds, Gray proved he can run between the tackles, but he’s at his best as a one-cut runner who can gain the edge and catch passes in space. If the Vols’ offensive line gets a lot bigger, stronger and better this offseason, Gray can do a lot of things with just a little room, and he has the wiggle to get into the open field. Though he isn’t a burner who’ll outrun everybody, he’s got good speed and will be a difference-maker right away.

Then there’s Solomon, who surprisingly chose Tennessee over a ton of interest from other programs just a week after announcing he’d leave Michigan. The Vols were always going to swing there, especially considering virtually everybody on that defensive staff has a relationship with him. Tracy Rocker recruited him when he was at Georgia, and Solomon was once committed to the Dawgs. Pruitt was his main recruiter at Alabama, and Kevin Sherrer had a relationship with him at UGA as well. Charles Kelly was his primary recruiter at Florida State, so there are a lot of relationships that date back a long time there.

Solomon has two years to play, and it would be a big deal if he could get eligible to play in 2019, especially considering UT must replace Kyle Phillips, Shy Tuttle and Alexis Johnson off that defensive line. You never want to anoint somebody a guaranteed starter, but if Solomon is healthy, he’d be a virtual lock to be inserted into the first team.

Even if UT has to wait another year for him, he’s going to be a valuable cog in that rebuilt defensive front.

It’s obvious that this year of losing did not sit well with Pruitt, who didn’t always wear it well. But he’s gone out and is making a splash in recruiting while trying to change it in a hurry. Nobody is saying the Vols are going to go out and beat Alabama and Georgia in 2019, but it’s vital for the program that they get back to the postseason and start winning more conference games. This trio of players gets them closer to the pack in that regard.

It’s been a big couple of days for Pruitt, the Vols and the future of the program. Now, what about that OC?