The Idiot Optimist’s Guide to the 2019 Season

Seven wins.

Seven wins is a good year.

That’s what my court-appointed therapist made me say out loud in her office. A bunch. I guess my debts finally caught up to me after I spent all that money on Bristol, non-refundable hotel/airfare to Tampa, and the Vols at 18-1 to win the title three years ago, in addition to my losings last year. Thought I’d double down on the Vols at 16-1 to win the title in basketball back in March. Turns out I was not the first person to start a sentence with, “But your honor, the referees…” in a Knox County courtroom.

So it was either jail, or counseling and a payment plan. I started to ask if they had the SEC Network in jail, but my wife intervened and now I get to talk about my feelings twice a month.

It’s not been all bad. My life has more structure now. That’s another word my therapist makes me say a lot. I started playing basketball again; they think it’s for my health, which is fine. If it’s also for the off chance I run into Ryan Cline at the YMCA, well that’s fine too.

But look, seven wins…I mean, that’d be progress, right? Not losing to Will Muschamp or (Fulmerized) Vanderbilt for the fourth straight year would be progress. Seven wins is what Vegas thinks, and I think at this point it’s clear they’re smarter than me. And if we do win seven and then get the bowl – probably a nice trip to Nashville or Memphis, right? – then 8-5 would be better than any of the other non-Fulmers did in their second year. Heck, it’d be the third-best year in the last twelve!

But ESPN’s FPI has us at 7.6 wins. I’m not smart enough to understand all the advanced math and computers and whatnot behind that number. But I am smart enough to round up. And if by God ESPN has us at eight wins, how can we not think we’re going to win at least that? They’ve hated us longer than anybody, so much so that now they just don’t talk about us at all, which, I’ll be honest, does hurt my feelings a little. No true Tennessee fan can let ESPN believe the Vols are going to win more games than we do.

So, eight wins. Eight wins is a good year. Eight might even get us to Jacksonville or Tampa for the holidays. I’ve still got all my Tampa maps in the glove compartment! Win the bowl, and now we’re at 9-4, which would mean ol’ Jeremy did as well in only year two as anyone who’s tried to replace the battle captain, including Butch Jones with all that (Fulmerized) talent. And year two is supposed to be the magic year, right?

Well, if that’s the case, then we gotta win nine. 8-4 would be fine, but it ain’t magical. You want magic, you want the year two bump, that’s gotta be 9-3. That would be the best regular season since 2007, and if we win that bowl game it’d be the first time we didn’t lose four games the whole year since 2004! Heck, that’d probably be Orlando; we haven’t been there since the kid from Elizabethton outran the ghost of Charles Woodson. I haven’t even had the opportunity to get thrown out of Disneyworld since then!

Look, nine wins ain’t really that hard, right? Georgia State, Chattanooga, UAB, that’s three. Clearly, Kentucky can only beat us if Derek Dooley or Butch Jones is the head coach, that’s four. Dooley is at Missouri now, and sure, they beat us last year after Guarantano got knocked out in the first quarter. Then their head coach talked (Fulmerized) about Jeremy. When they asked Odom about it later, he said, “We were able to visit in person soon after that.” I bet. That’s five. Besides, they play us after they play Georgia and Florida back-to-back. So does South Carolina, as it turns out, so that’s six.

Mississippi State? Name one player on their team. That’s seven. We also play BYU, which is fine, though I’m unsure why we can’t schedule a good Baptist school. That’s eight. And then Vanderbilt. Look, I’ve been doing this a long time. The joke used to be we don’t even mention Vanderbilt in this thing because it’s such an automatic win. So let’s go back to that and see if it works. That’s nine.

So 9-3, with wins over Georgia State, BYU, Chattanooga, Mississippi State, South Carolina, UAB, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. That means our only losses would be to Florida, Georgia, and Alabamokay, nevermind.

Ten wins. Ten wins is a good year.

Look, we can’t play any worse against Florida, let’s start there. Do you know how hard it is to have your first ten drives end in something other than a punt or a touchdown? Both my preacher and my therapist have warned me against using the devil as a scapegoat so often, but I mean, come on. If the greatest trick he ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist, the second greatest trick is pretty much every Tennessee-Florida game the last five years. Don’t think he didn’t try to get Jauan running down that sideline in 2016. I’m really glad that dude is still on our team.

And Georgia? Hey man, you could build our entire off-season argument around being down just 12 points to those guys in the fourth quarter last year, and that was before we called Jim Chaney home. In Knoxville, off the bye week? Who cares if Georgia is coming off the bye week too! We could beat them!

That’s 11 wins! And Bama just got punched in the mouth by Clemson, and everyone is telling me how their next head coach is gonna be our current head coach? Riddle me this: couldn’t Jeremy beat Bama so bad he didn’t want to be their coach anymore?

We’ve got the most underrated quarterback in the nation on an offense than ran fewer plays than anyone last season, that’s massive, guaranteed improvement. We’ve got a freshman class with the best blue-chip ratio since Phillip was on the sideline, including Eric Gray and Henry “I’ll learn to pronounce your name by the Florida game.”

And we hired a Gruden assistant to run our defense!

Let’s do this.

Lead measures to monitor for the Vols in 2019

When the Vols finally kick off in a couple of weeks, all eyes will be drawn to the shiny objects. We’ll scan the field in search of Wanya Morris, Darnell Wright, Henry To’oTo’o, and Quavaris Crouch, and we’ll hope to see them doing well. The new blood is always the first place we look when searching for hope.

But hope is found not only in new faces or in lag measures like win/loss records. It’s also found in lead measures, those details that lead to the final results you’re after, and you don’t have to wait until the end to analyze those.

We here at GRT are as interested in the new guys as everyone else, but we’ll also be looking closely at certain details, those specific lead measures that will likely foretell final success or failure long before it happens.

Here’s a partial list of the lead measures we’ll be watching when the team kicks off this fall. Will covered some of this in series earlier this summer, but I wanted to gather them all here for the late arrivals and for the purpose of adding to the conversation.

Lead measure No. 1: More third-and-short conversions

Here’s the worst of the bile from that article:

Last year Tennessee ran the ball 21 times on 3rd-&-1-to-3. They gained just 20 yards. Those 0.95 yards per carry on third-and-short weren’t just last in the country: Liberty finished 129th, and averaged 1.52 yards per carry. The Vols were the only team in America to average less than a yard-and-a-half per carry on third-and-short, and the Vols averaged less than a yard period.

Ugh.

For my money, this is the thing I’m most interested to see this fall. The early returns will serve as the best prognosis for the offensive line.

The fact that the fate of the 2019 Volunteers is primarily in the big paws of the big men up front on offense is one of college football’s worst-kept secrets. They have additional goals, no doubt — keeping Jarrett Guarantano in one piece and on the field, giving him time to throw, keeping tackles for loss to a minimum, and providing the running backs with sufficient time and space to improve their overall yards per carry regardless of down — but productivity on third-and-short is the canary in the coal mine, and we like our canaries alive, thank you very much.

What to watch for: To be average in this category, the Vols should get somewhere around 4.5 yards on third down with 1-3 yards to go. To be one of the best 25 teams in this category, we’d want to see them get around 5.5 yards.

Lead measure No. 2: More yards per carry regardless of down

The allocation of credit for an offense’s productivity running the ball is an age-old question. The guy carrying the ball gets all of the glory, of course, but he’d get nowhere without his blockers. How much credit to give the big guys, though, is up for debate. I’m inclined to give them a bunch.

So, when a running back struggles, it makes sense to lay much of the blame on the offensive line as well.

Tennessee last season averaged only 3.7 yards per carry, ranking 108th in the nation. If that number improves this fall, it should indicate that the offensive line has indeed improved and the canary lives another day.

What to watch for: Tennessee could work its way into mediocrity by reaching somewhere around 4.5 yards per carry. Over 5 should get them into the Top 25.

Lead measure No. 3: More takeaways

The juicy bit from that piece from Will:

The result: just 15 turnovers in each of the last two seasons, 97th nationally in 2017 and 101st in 2018 (stats via SportSource Analytics). That total joins anemic defenses from 2011 (18 turnovers), 2012 (17), and a what-could-have-been unit from 2015 (19 turnovers) in Tennessee failing to break 20 turnovers five times in the last eight years.

Note that this is “turnovers gained,” not “turnover margin.” The Vols were pretty good at protecting the ball when they had it last season, ranking 30th nationally in turnovers lost. They just weren’t very good at taking it away from the other team.

What to watch for: You’d like to see the Vols get at least around 20 turnovers, so maybe 1.6 or so per game to stay on pace. That’s just to get to the median, though. If you’re shooting for the best 25, you want to see somewhere around 24, or an average of 2 per game.

As Will points out in the above article, one of the leading causes of turnovers is sacks, because a sack is a two-pronged problem for an offense. First, they’re often a surprise to the quarterback, who’s not protecting the ball but getting ready to throw it, so he’s more likely to fumble it when hit. Second, even if the quarterback does manage to throw it with an animal bearing down on him, the pressure of a near-sack greatly increases the odds of an interception.

And that brings us to . . .

Lead measure No. 4: More sacks

Bad news: Tennessee had only 25 sacks all of last season, good for only 67th in the nation.

More bad news: 9 of those came from Kyle Phillips, Alexis Johnson, Emmitt Gooden, and Darrin Kirkland, Jr., none of whom will take the field this fall.

Good news: returning outside linebacker Darrell Taylor contributed 8 of them.

Bad news: 7 of Taylor’s sacks came in only two games.

Good news: Those two games were against Georgia and Kentucky, two of the season’s toughest opponents/most important games.

More good news: Everybody knows consistency is the theme of the season for Taylor, and a little additional focus should go a long way for such a talented dude. Derek Barnett had 13 in 2016 with only four goose eggs. He had 1 sack in 6 games, 2 in 2, and 3 in 1. That’s your target, Mr. Taylor.

More bad news: Every opponent knows all of this about Taylor as well, so he’s going to get extra attention from the pass-blockers. This, of course, will create opportunities for Taylor’s teammates.

What to watch for: Tennessee’s ability to generate more sacks this season is one of the main games-within-the-games to watch this fall. They averaged 2.08 sacks per game last season, and we’d like to see an improvement to 2.75 per game this fall. The question marks along the all-new defensive line will make this especially interesting.

Lead measure No. 5: Improved red zone defense

Back to Will for more astonishment:

Opponents converted 41 of 45 red zone opportunities against the Vols last year, 91.1%, and only two of those four stops came in meaningful situations. That scoring percentage ranked 120th nationally last fall. Opponents scored touchdowns 30 times in those 45 trips; a 66.7% red zone touchdown percentage ranked 90th nationally. (stats via SportSource Analytics)

My first inclination upon seeing this is to simply say that it’s correlated with a defense that was bad everywhere, but that’s really not the case. Tennessee was 49th in total defense, 52nd in rushing defense, and 60th in passing yards allowed. That’s not good, of course, but it doesn’t explain 90th and 120th in red zone touchdowns allowed and red zone scoring allowed.

So what’s the answer here?

I have no idea.

I am intrigued by something I read suggesting that football gets less speedy and more twitchy as the field shrinks and that therefore not knowing what to do matters more because it puts you at an instinctual disadvantage. But I’m not really sold on that idea, either. My humble advice: Do better. 🙂

What to watch for: The target for how often an opponent scores when in the red zone is about 82% for just good and about 76% for really good. Either of those would show improvement.

Bonus measure: More Guarantano, less medical tent

Jarrett Guarantano is better than you think he is. The team needs to protect him better and provide him more time and space to operate so that he can stay on the field instead of the medical tent while the trainers put Humpty back together again.

The odd thing is, the offense wasn’t nearly as terrible at allowing sacks as you might think. Opponents managed 1.92 sacks per game against the Vols, which puts Tennessee at 47th in the nation. Again, a galaxy far, far away from home, but not as bad as it seemed.

I think the real problem is that not all sacks are equal and that each one Guarantano suffered felt like a catastrophe and made you legitimately concerned for his long-term well-being. That, and the fact that 39% of his throws last season were made under pressure.

As I said a couple of weeks ago, just a little more time from the offensive line and slightly quicker decisions from Guarantano should help the team reap the rewards of a quarterback who can be really, really good provided he gets the help he needs.

I’m not sure what stat to watch to monitor this. As far as I know, no one tracks hits on the quarterback that send him to the sideline, but having Guarantano remain on the field for every meaningful offensive snap is a good day.

BJ Ojulari and Eric Shaw and the Illustration of Pruitt’s Recruiting Philosophy

By week’s end, both OLB BJ Ojulari and TE Eric Shaw will have announced their commitments to their respective universities of choice.  Both have been to Tennessee’s campus multiple times, both are rated s 4-stars by 247 Sports (Ojulari at #184 overall – and also a 4-star on Rivals, Shaw at #301 overall), and both have nice offer lists.  They’re both very good prospects who will play their college football in the SEC, the best conference in college football bar none.

Here’s where they differ: Tennessee has gone all-in on Ojulari, as have LSU, Auburn, Florida and others, whereas in the end Shaw wasn’t a take for at least the Vols if not also instate Auburn. So today Shaw is going to pick South Carolina, a program that Tennessee hasn’t beaten since 2015 and one that is a roadblock for Tennessee in between where it is and where it wants to be: back at the top of the SEC East and the entire conference.  In contrast, the Vols are in a dogfight right down to the end for Ojulari, who if he doesn’t pick Tennessee will choose either LSU or Auburn, two programs who’ve been winning at a high level for a decade-plus.  As the rankings difference and more importantly level of schools willing to take them suggest, Ojulari is considered to be an “elite adjacent” prospect – he’s not a take for instate UGA right now – while Shaw is considered to be a solid player whose ceiling and floor are both lower.  Ojulari is a physical freak who’s not only added weight to his 6-3, 225 pound frame but also added new dimensions to his pass-rushing skill-set this spring and summer to where he’s no longer strictly a speed rusher.  He won DL MVP at the Rivals 3 Stripe Camp in Atlanta, showed out at The Opening in Atlanta, and then most impressively was named to the “Dream Team” at the Opening Finals against many of the best players in the country.  The Vols are looking for at least one bigtime pass-rushing OLB and would love to pair Ojulari with Reggie Grimes from the Midstate and/or West Coast product Sav’ell Smalls to give them one of the best position groups in the country.  Ojulari would also combine with QB Harrison Bailey give the Vols two Marietta HS studs in the class of 2020 to go with WR Ramel Keyton from last year’s class, giving Tennessee yet another tie to their teammate and 5-star stud WR/TE Arik Gilbert.  That all remains to be seen of course pending Ojulari’s choice on Friday.

One could make the case that rather than try and go head to head with the Georgias and Alabamas and LSUs and Auburns for top-end recruits – where the Vols are going to lose more than they win at least for now – they should take the slow and steady approach to program building.  That is, recruit against the likes of South Carolina, Missouri, Mississippi State, etc. – programs in the middle of the SEC to whom Tennessee is looking up at the moment.  As we’ve discussed, that’s very much not the approach that Jeremy Pruitt is taking in the least.  In fact, as illustrated very starkly by these two recruitments, Pruitt is looking to just skip over the programs that he (and Vol fans) feel have no business being slotted above Tennessee and zoom straight back to competing against the aforementioned programs at the top of the SEC.  Whether that is ultimately successful or not is to be determined, but they’ve already got more than a handful of no-doubt bluechippers in this class and realistically are squarely in the mix for, frankly, a whole lot more after landing a Top 10 class of 2019.  If Pruitt is in fact successful with his strategy he’ll at the very least raise the floor for the program, as Tennessee will quickly have way more talent than the middle of the pack programs, enabling the Vols to go back to beating those teams regularly strictly on talent alone.  At the same time, Pruitt will have Tennessee at least approximating the talent of the elite SEC programs, narrowing the gap such that outcoaching and getting a break here and there will enable Tennessee to actually beat them instead of just coming close as it has for the better part of the last ten years.

Year Two is for Freshmen

In the 90’s, Tennessee had five Freshman All-Americans: Aaron Hayden and Raymond Austin in 1991, Jamal Lewis in 1997, and Albert Haynesworth and Leonard Scott in 1999. All five made the first team. (Research via Tennessee’s 2019 media guide)

In the next decade, that number jumped to 18, including seven first-teamers: Michael Munoz in 2000, Kelley Washington in 2001, James Wilhoit in 2003, Roshaun Fellows in 2004, Josh McNeil in 2006, Eric Berry in 2007, and Aaron Douglas in 2009.

With one year to go, the Vols have placed 14 players on Freshman All-American teams in this decade, including nine first-teamers: James Stone in 2010, A.J. Johnson and Marcus Jackson in 2011, Jashon Robertson and Derek Barnett in 2014, Chance Hall in 2015, Trey Smith in 2017, and Bryce Thompson and Joe Doyle last season.

Freshmen are playing faster everywhere these days. But at Tennessee, on its fourth new coach since 2008, the new guys get more opportunities…especially in a coach’s second year.

Using the starting lineups from the media guide, here’s every true freshman starter I found in the post-Fulmer era:

2018J. CarvinA. TaylorB. Thompson
2017T. SmithJ. Palmer
2016
2015J. JenningsC. HallD. Kirkland
2014J. HurdJ. MaloneE. WolfJ. RobertsonC. ThomasD. Barnett
2013M. NorthJ. SmithC. Sutton
2012L. McNeil
2011M. JacksonAJ JohnsonC. MaggittB. Randolph
2010T. BrayJ. Stone
2009A. DouglasJ. Jackson

Freshmen carry the heaviest weight not in year one, but year two: a coach’s first full recruiting class, a chance to get your guys in the mix. In 2011 all four of those starters earned Freshman All-American honors. In 2014 Butch Jones went all-in with six true freshmen starters, plus Todd Kelly Jr. who made the SEC All-Freshman team off the bench. In both cases, those guys would become significant pieces in what we hoped would be arrival seasons in 2012 and 2015-16; you’ll note the absence of true freshmen starters in 2012 (LaDarrell McNeil started after Brian Randolph tore his ACL against Florida) and in 2016 (Nigel Warrior made the SEC All-Freshman team off the bench).

We’ve been penciling in Wanya Morris and Darnell Wright as starters at offensive tackle this fall; Marcus Tatum might have something to say about some of that, but the Vols did start two freshmen on the line in 2014. Coleman Thomas was baptized by fire at Oklahoma, but the Vols still put together a potent offense as the year went along.

From there the sense for the 2019 Vols was that they didn’t have to have freshmen lead right away elsewhere, but if options emerged so be it. Early in fall camp, two of the most frequent names aren’t really that surprising: Eric Gray in the backfield, and Henry To’o To’o at linebacker. I’m not sure Gray will unseat Ty Chandler; the Vols are going to give plenty of opportunity to multiple backs anyway. But To’o To’o is Tennessee’s highest-rated signee behind the offensive tackles, and there is more opportunity to be a “starter” at linebacker than running back.

The mythical year two is usually thought of as one for big leaps. At Tennessee under Derek Dooley and Butch Jones, it was a chance to play a bunch of freshman and generate initial excitement. Dooley’s year two was derailed by injuries to Justin Hunter and Tyler Bray, but only after that excitement broke through against Cincinnati. Butch’s year two built on a close loss at Georgia before the Vols gave away the Florida game; sophomore Josh Dobbs won momentum back by season’s end.

For Jeremy Pruitt, no one is talking about this year two being a leap to championship contention. But if he can showcase his freshmen alongside the returning talent, that sense of excitement can show up on fall Saturdays. And considering the depths from which we’re climbing, there might be enough excitement for not just the future but the present.

Two Weeks Into Camp, Do Early CB Returns Change Calculus for 2020 DB Recruiting?

With a roster that has been drastically improved since Coach Jeremy Pruitt took over but still has a ways to go in order for Tennessee to be a true SEC contender, there realistically isn’t one position that can reasonably be considered in strong shape top to bottom.  There are certainly more blue chip players on the roster than there have been in a long time, and there is also hope that Pruitt and his very well-regarded staff can get step-up performances from a number of former 3-star recruits who were signed by the former regime.  But no matter how you cut it, there are needs at every position.  However, there are a finite number of scholarships in a given cycle, and staffs inevitably have to make concessions from one position to another as they put each class together. 

That said, projected numbers at each position in a class can fluctuate depending on a number of factors, most importantly of course the number and talent of the current and future players on the roster.  Specifically at Cornerback for Tennessee, three developments in camp so far have the potential to influence what Tennessee seeks to do at the position in the class of 2020:

  • After two weeks of camp and one major scrimmage, one name has been prominently and consistently mentioned among the breakout players – freshman and veterans alike – so far this fall: CB Warren Burrell.  Burrell was an even-at-the-time obviously underrated (by recruiting sites) prospects who chose the Vols over Florida, among others, and was an early enrollee who showed playmaking ability in the spring.  At over 6’0 and with long arms and a nose for the ball to go with the kind of attitude needed to be successful at the position, Burrell has taken his strong spring performance and run with it.  After receiving rare praise from Pruitt, Burrell by all accounts played most of Sunday night’s scrimmage with the starters at CB opposite Bryce Thompson and is at worst going to be the third CB in the rotation when the Vols start the season in less than three weeks, meaning the three top CBs will all be either sophomores or freshman.  Both of the other class of 2019 prospects signed to be CBs – Tyus Fields and Kenny Solomon – have also had their moments early in camp, showing the tenacity and speed/length they are known for, respectively
  • Tennessee’s only projected contributor in the secondary who is a Senior, Baylen Buchanan, has been injured since the spring and has not yet practiced.  At this point, though details of his injury are very scarce, it wouldn’t be surprising for him to take a medical redshirt year in 2019 and come back for the 2020 season.  If that happens, it would give the Vols another experienced CB in 2020 that they didn’t anticipate having
  • Jerrod Means, a late take in the class of 2019 as a WR, was moved to CB before the start of camp and has already shown flashes of real potential.  At 6’2 and around 215 pounds, Means has the length that is almost a prerequisite for a Jeremy Pruitt CB prospect.  He’s also a kid who ran a 4.4 40 and produced a 39-inch vertical at a Tennessee camp last summer, so his athletic ability is borderline elite for that size.  Everyone knows that Pruitt loves DBs who played both on both sides of the ball as that likely means they have ball skills that translate well to the secondary, and Means also played Safety in high school.  While it remains to be seen whether he sticks at CB and then becomes a good one, he’s got everything you’re looking for at the position and his move means the Vols added 4 true CBs in the class of 2019

Tennessee already has two CB commitments in the 2020 class in early enrollee Art Green – the nation’s #2 overall JUCO player – and Lovie Jenkins.  Jenkins is almost a carbon copy of Burrell in terms of size and length and chose the Vols over a heavy pursuit from Notre Dame as well as offers from Miami, Missouri, and many others.  Do the Vols need another CB in this class?  Maybe not, though it’s unlikely they’d turn down any of their top targets still on the board – namely Joel Williams (announcing in September,  leaning towards Bama) and Kendal Dennis (Vols in Top 2 with Auburn, UF and Miami trying hard, could announce in August) –  if they wanted in now.  But as things change during the season and the December signing day approaches, the Tennessee staff could certainly decide that the 3rd CB spot is needed more elsewhere, and given the developments above that wouldn’t be surprising in the least.  It’s a good problem for them to have to work through and a sign of the ever-improving roster as well as Pruitt and his staff’s evaluation acumen.

Injury Prevents the Defense of Your Dreams, Again

Wherever you might’ve placed Emmit Gooden on your “least afford to lose” list, his presence there at all speaks to the problem of his out-for-the-season absence. Two things we’ve been saying all off-season:

  • Defensive line is a bigger question mark than offensive line, because at least some of those guys on the OL played meaningful snaps and you’re bringing in five-star freshmen.
  • Other than those offensive tackles, there’s nowhere any newcomers have to step in and lead right away.

Well, now the first part is even more true, and the second part is probably a lie.

Darnell Wright and Wanya Morris are Tennessee’s two highest-rated signees. You have to go further down the list to get to Savion Williams, Darel Middleton, and Elijah Simmons. If you’re looking for good news, that’s two JUCOs and an 18-year old that looks like this:

(Like me and my almost-two-year-old son, that dude’s head circumference is in the 100th percentile. “He’s so good he doesn’t need a neck!” – Idiot Optimist by next week, probably.)

So, potential remains on the defensive line for Tennessee. Now you just need it to show up immediately.

The only good thing about early fall camp injuries is the amount of time you have to get over them before facing live fire. More newcomers (hopefully including Aubrey Solomon) will get more reps, along with important returning pieces like Matthew Butler, and we’ll re-calibrate as best we’re able.

But it’s okay to say, 3+ weeks from kickoff, that this sucks. Especially because it keeps happening to one of those defensive guys on the least afford to lose list.

Butch Jones is long gone, so we can say this without it sounding like an unnecessary defense of him: this is the fourth time in five years the Vols have lost one of their best defensive players for the year before the calendar hits October:

  • 2015: Curt Maggitt, Week 2
  • 2016: Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Week 3
  • 2017: Darrin Kirkland Jr., fall camp
  • 2019: Emmit Gooden, fall camp

You can argue whatever percentage you like between bad luck and the revolving door to the strength and conditioning department, but still…man. These posts are getting old.

Gooden’s injury: bad news, but no cause for panic

“You know unfortunately last night Emmit Gooden suffered a knee injury and won’t be with us this year.”

Jeremy Pruitt, 8/7/19

Heck of an opener there from Jeremy Pruitt yesterday. I didn’t see the video, so I can’t say for sure what his demeanor was, but from a cold reading of the text, that’s some remarkable restraint addressing some remarkably bad news.

What is Pruitt thinking? I mean, with the exception of quarterback Jarrett Guarantano, Emmit Gooden was probably the guy the team could least afford to lose to injury this season. As Patrick Brown said this morning, Gooden was the most proven player on the team’s most unproven unit. I’m relatively certain that every conversation I had or heard about the Vols this offseason included an unequivocal statement that the defensive line was the team’s biggest question mark. And now, the one thing we do know is that we can’t count on one of the guys we were counting on. Sigh.

If you’re counting the lost productivity, here’s how it all adds up. Defensive linemen Kyle Phillips, Shy Tuttle, and Alexis Johnson all started all 12 games last season, and they have all graduated. Today, you can add to that ledger that of the team’s most-productive back-up in Gooden, who started a game, played in all 12 and had 33 tackles, 7 TFLs, and a sack last season. You can probably also add any productivity from Kurott Garland to the mix, as he is making doe eyes at other schools through the transfer portal.

But here’s the thing. Pruitt does not sound distraught at all, pointing out that he still has “10 guys there right now.” Here’s what he’s talking about:

Apologies appear to be in order for Dawson Stephens and Gatkek Kueth, who apparently aren’t top-of-mind for Pruitt despite making the roster as DLs. But even without the walk-ons, that’s 12 guys. Take out Gooden and one other, and those are the 10 Pruitt’s counting on. Please, please, please let him be counting Garland as gone and Solomon as here.

At this point, I think it’s wise to trust Pruitt and to mirror his lack of panic concerning the loss of Gooden. Here’s why:

  1. There is still reasonable optimism that Aubrey Solomon will be granted eligibility to play this fall for the Vols. Yeah, it’s the NCAA, and yeah, that institution is as predictable as an inebriated roulette wheel, but come on. They don’t have to tap dance on a straight line while singing show tunes backward and blowing into the breathalyzer. We just need them to stay on the stool. You can do it!
  2. Correct me if I’m wrong about this, but I would think that the learning curve is not nearly as daunting along the defensive line as it is, say, for the offensive line. You do have to line up correctly, but the linebackers are there to assist with a well-timed smack on the butt if you happen to be wrong. After that, it’s just go get the ball until the whistle blows, right?
  3. These are some big bodies. Five of these guys are over 300 pounds, and Elijah Simmons is a monstrous 340. I’m pretty sure he’s harboring an illegal immigrant in each of his thighs.

Losing Gooden is most certainly not good news. But all is not yet lost. We still have the prospect of Solomon, and we have brute bulk and strength at a position for which that’s 90% of the job.

So, I’m not panicking. I would not be surprised to find that these guys do just fine this fall. Go get ’em.

Can Vols Make a Play for Former Georgia 5-star Brenton Cox?

With the news that former 5-star OLB Brenton Cox has decided to transfer (or, if you believe Georgia homers, has been dismissed) from UGA the logical question is of course where will he end up.  He’ll obvious be heavily coveted, assuming he doesn’t have serious skeletons in his closet, as he’s not only a former bluechip recruit but also comes with a full year of playing experience at the highest level of college football.  Last year he played in 13 games for the Dawgs, making 20 tackles including two tackles for loss and one sack.  He also started the Sugar Bowl and has 6 tackles in UGA’s loss to Texas. 

Cox was ranked as the #23 overall player in the 2018 class by the 247 Sports Composite and at 6’4 245 with elite athleticism is exactly what Pruitt and the Vols are looking for in an OLB.  While they are absolutely in the mix for elite edge prospects like BJ Ojulari, Reggie Grimes, and Savell Smalls in the 2020 class, to date they have not succeeded in bringing in a prospect of Cox’s caliber at the position and reasonably believe that it’s a major missing piece to get the Tennessee defense to another level.  Again assuming the reasons for his leaving UGA aren’t of the violent/felonious nature, the Vols should be all-in on trying to land him. 

The good news is that Tennessee has a major tie with Cox, as Pruitt was Alabama’s lead recruiter for him when he was their Defensive Coordinator.  And while he eventually signed with UGA after decommitting from Ohio State, Pruitt got Cox to take an official visit to Alabama in early December right before getting the Tennessee head coaching job and the Tide were thought to be his leader until Pruitt indeed left.  Given Pruitt’s reputation as a recruiter whose biggest strength is relationship building, one can assume that he and Cox had formed a pretty strong bond considering where Pruitt had gotten the Tide in that recruitment.  It’s also fair to assume that while current Tennessee ILB Coach Kevin Sherrer wasn’t Cox’s lead recruiter while at UGA that he and Cox are also very familiar with one another. OSU could end being a player given Cox’s prior status as a Buckeye commitment, but with Urban Meyer having departed Columbus they might be less of a factor. 

Either way, the expectation should be that every national power at least kicks the tires to gauge both the issues surrounding Cox’s departure and then his interest.  From there it will either be a quick decision – as some of these things end up being – or  knock down drag out fight for an immediate impact player.  Tennessee should be a factor here un the latter scenario if it wants to be.  Should they land Cox that would go a LONG way towards addressing one of the biggest needs in the 2020 class and he would be penciled in as an instant starter next season.  Stay tuned…

Defense: Can Vols Get Step-Up Performances from any Butch-era Bench Players?

We’ve taken a look at the potential for the 2019 Tennessee team were its former bluechip recruits on the offensive and defensive side of the ball to play up to their rankings.  When you look at it from that angle, there is reason for some optimism if you put a any amount of faith in Coach Jeremy Pruitt and his staff to coach them up.  However, we’ve also stipulated that regardless of whether or not that elevation in play from former 5 and 4-stars happens, the team does not have enough quality depth across the board despite Pruitt’s relatively strong efforts in his stub 2018 class and first full class of 2019. 

Yesterday we took a look at the true Juniors and RS Sophomores from the class of 2017 as well as the handful of seniors and RS Jrs on the offensive side of the ball who, if they step up and play the best ball of their respective careers, can have a meaningful impact on the 2019 season.  Whether its providing quality depth and rest for the first-teamers or even better make big plays when the opportunity presents itself, shoring up the bottom portion of the roster (from a star ranking perspective) with play that exceeds what anyone is expecting from them would simply be huge for Tennessee. 

Below we look at the defensive side of the ball from that perspective:

DL

Matthew Butler (Jr)/Latrell Bumphus (Jr)/Jaquain Blakely (RS Jr)

There is expected to be greater overall depth on the DL this season after Tennessee leaned (too) heavily on three since-departed seniors.  However, there is a big difference between a player who can provide actual quality depth and “Just A Guy.”  Butler  is without a doubt the Vols are counting on to if not push for a starting role than be a first off the bench kind of player.  Bumphus and Blakely, both of whom have played TE in their time in Knoxville, are big guys with athletic ability – if that can translate this season into meaningful skill and ability on the DL such that they can give the starters some real rest without a huge dropoff that would be big

OLB

Deandre Johnson (Jr)/Kivon Bennett (RS So)

Johnson has shown flashes and has actually played a lot of football.  Bennett hasn’t played much on Saturdays but had a strong spring.  These two, along with former 4-star JUCO Jordan Allen, are going to be given every opportunity to take the OLB spot opposite Darrell Taylor.  Whoever does win that job will also probably get a lot of 1-on-1 chances as the hope is that Taylor is commanding double teams on every play.  If either, or preferably both, of them can step up and grab the opportunity and be legit pass-rush threats while also effectively setting the edge in the run game that would take the defense to another level and give DC Derrick Ansely much more freedom and flexibility with his back 7

ILB

Shanon Reid (Jr)

Solon Page (RS So)

Reid was a breakout star in the spring, having completely reshaped his body (read: got a lot bigger) while not losing any of the speed that was his calling card in high school.  At this point it seems like the Vols are counting on him to if not start at ILB – pending what a stud freshman like Henry To’oto’to can do – than at least give them a ton of high-quality snaps. 

Page on the other hand still hasn’t found his niche on defense and is likely a special teamer.  However, there’s a ton of value there too, and if he can make some big plays throughout the course of the season on coverage teams, etc, that would give the Vols a big boost

DB

Shawn Shamburger (Jr)/Theo Jackson (Jr) – sdafadsf

Cheyenne Labruzza (RS So)/Terrell Bailey (RS So) – asfads

Shamburger and Jackson have played a lot of football for Tennessee in their careers – unfortunately it’s been on two of the worst teams in the program’s history.  However, they both do have talent, and Jackson in particular could be in line to start at S.  That’s particularly the case depending on what happens with the Nickel position, where there’s a real chance that Nigel Warrior could slide down and take snaps there. 

Labruzza and Bailey have not played at all on defense in their respective careers to date, and it remains to be seen if they will.  That said, Labruzza has generated some buzz in the offseason and does have a pretty solid pedigree as a prospect and is also finally healthy.  He’ll be in the mix at Nickel and will also play teams for sure.  Anything the Vols can get from these two would be counted as a bonus and would boost the overall play of the team

Hope is Undefeated in August

It’s the first day of practice, a preseason NFL game was on last night, and Madden releases today. Welcome to August.

The power rankings for individual off-season days used to be topped by the release of that year’s NCAA Football game. By the time actual practice started you could throw for 3,500 yards and go undefeated with any Vol quarterback from Heath Shuler to Justin Worley. I think I only bought Madden in 2000 when the Playstation 2 came out, and in 2005 on the Xbox 360, when you had to wait a whole year for a next-gen release in the college game. But since 2013, we’ve been stuck with Madden; child-like imaginations might find their way to an orange-tinted team (maybe the Browns this year!), but it ain’t the same.

Without the video game atop the off-season rankings, maybe your favorite day is the first time you get your hands on Phil Steele’s magazine (or Gameday on Rocky Top’s!). SEC Media Days always let you know things are getting closer. The announcement of kickoff times for the first three weeks lets you make tangible plans.

We don’t get an inside look at the first day of Tennessee’s practice, though Fan Day is available on Sunday. We’ll wait for names to pop in sound bites and behind paywalls, and hope some of those names are on the defensive line.

But, at least for me, one of my favorite days this time of year is driving through the neighborhood and seeing your local high school team practicing. I haven’t lived in Knoxville for 14 years now, and still miss the way orange slowly increases in the community over the course of August. But that idea of a group of people coming together around a team is still alive and well on every high school field this time of year.

This is the month when reason gives way to hope. Reality sets in for everyone in September. But no matter how long it’s been – and it’s been a while for us – hope is undefeated in the month of August.

We’ll start finding out what kind of hope this August will bring today.

Go Vols.