Beat Georgia State by four possessions, UAB by three possessions, and Chattanooga by as much as you want
Beat BYU and Vanderbilt by a touchdown
Toss-ups with South Carolina and at Kentucky
Lose to Mississippi State by a touchdown
Lose at Missouri by 10
Lose at Florida/vs Georgia by two touchdowns
Blown out at Alabama
Split the toss-ups with South Carolina and Kentucky, and you’re 6-6. Win both of them, and you’re 7-5.
That’s essentially Tennessee’s SP+ projection. Bill Connelly’s preseason rankings, now at ESPN.com, have the Vols just outside the Top 25 at #26. But, as is always the case with us, that’s less important than how many teams on Tennessee’s schedule are ranked ahead of us: six this year, including five in the Top 13 (SP+ really likes both Mississippi State and Missouri).
This kind of season is one way progress could look for Tennessee. Not only would the Vols return to bowl eligibility after a two-year absence, but Tennessee would be competitive in every game but the one in Tuscaloosa.
If Tennessee loses only one game by 17+ points (three possessions)? 2019 would be only the third time that’s happened since 2007, joining Butch Jones’ teams in 2015 and 2016. The former is the only Tennessee team to not lose a game by multiple possessions since 1998.
A 6-6 finish wouldn’t necessarily thrill the masses, but if it comes with this level of competitiveness, the Vols will have clearly taken a step in the right direction, as SP+ projects.
But if that’s not exciting enough for you, how about a season like this:
Beat Georgia State by four possessions, UAB by three possessions, and Chattanooga by as much as you want
Beat BYU and Vanderbilt by 10-12 points
Beat South Carolina by 3-4 points
Toss-ups with Mississippi State, at Kentucky, and at Missouri
Lose at Florida/vs Georgia by a touchdown
Lose at Alabama by 17
Go 1-2 in those toss-ups, and you’re 7-5. Go 2-1, and you’re 8-4.
That’s essentially Tennessee’s FPI projection. And for many of us, that sounds more like it.
This kind of season would feel much more like progress, even if the Vols don’t upset the Gators or Dawgs. One last time before kickoff: an 8-5 finish would be the third-best season of the last 12 years; 9-4 would tie Jones in 2015 and 2016 as the best since 2007. You always start and finish with wins and losses; we’ll spill plenty of word count on what this team did or didn’t do in the space between 5-7 and 8-4. But along the way, progress will once again be measured on every snap. It remains readily available…and the real fun will be in seeing how many wins that progress will earn.
Here’s the side-by-side comparison; margins come from comparing each team’s rating, +2.5 points for home field advantage:
We’ll know more after the Vols’ first game Saturday, but now that we’re through fall camp, it’s time to update our expectations from our pre-fall camp assessment. We still don’t have definite news on the availability of either Trey Smith or Aubrey Solomon, and the general vibe out of fall camp was good. Losing Emmitt Gooden was a blow and amplified the question marks around the defensive line, but for me, the only effect it’s had on my expectations is to keep them in check against the tide of optimism that rises every August as kickoff approaches.
The main additional data point comes courtesy of Saturday night’s game between the Florida Gators and the Miami Hurricanes. Both teams were sloppy overall and featured frightening defenses that posed real problems for the offenses. I was suspicious of the Gators’ offensive line before the game, and although I’m not ready to convict, I do believe that suspicion was well-placed.
With all of that, my current win total expectation for the Vols is 6.6, up every so slightly from . . . 6.55 just prior to fall camp. It’s a torrent of optimism!
Preseason: 6.55
After Week 0: 6.6
The GRT Expected Win Total Machine
Explanations are below, but here’s a table with my updated expectations:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to Georgia State, 30-38
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to BYU, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Chattanooga, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ No. 9 Florida, 34-3
Sat, Oct 5
Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Mississippi State, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19
Lost @ 1 Alabama, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26
Beat South Carolina, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2
Beat UAB, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Kentucky, 17-13
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Missouri, 24-20
Sat, Nov 30
vs Vanderbilt
The Vols’ future opponents
Georgia State Panthers
Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the Sun Belt East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Tennessee, 38-30
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Furman, 48-42
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to Western Michigan, 57-10
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Texas State, 37-34 3OT
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Arkansas State, 52-38
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Coastal Carolina, 31-21
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Army, 28-21
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Troy, 52-33
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ UL Monroe, 45-31
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 25 Appalachian State, 56-27
Sat, Nov 23
Beat South Alabama, 28-15
Sat, Nov 30
@ Georgia Southern
BYU Cougars
Current record: 0-0 (0-0)
Thu, Aug 29
Lost to No. 14 Utah, 12-30
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Tennessee, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14
Beat No. 24 USC, 30-27 OT
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to No. 22 Washington, 45-19
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ Toledo, 28-21
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ South Florida, 27-23
Sat, Oct 19
Beat No. 14 Boise State, 28-25
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Utah State, 42-14
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Liberty, 31-24
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Idaho State, 42-10
Sat, Nov 23
Beat UMass, 56-24
Sat, Nov 30
@ San Diego State
Chattanooga Mocs
Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the Southern Conference
Thu, Aug 29
Beat Eastern Illinois, 24-10
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to Jacksonville State, 41-20
Sat, Sep 14
Lost at Tennessee, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to James Madison, 37-14
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Western Carolina, 60-36
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Mercer, 34-17
Thu, Oct 17
Beat East Tennessee State, 16-13
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Wofford, 35-34 OT
Sat, Nov 2
Lost to Furman, 35-20
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Samford, 35-27
Sat, Nov 16
Beat The Citadel, 34-33
Sat, Nov 23
Lost to VMI, 31-24
Florida Gators
Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 24
Beat Miami, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7
Beat UT Martin, 45-0
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Kentucky, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Tennessee, 34-3
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Towson, 38-0
Sat, Oct 5
Beat No. 7 Auburn, 24-13
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ No. 5 LSU, 42-28
Sat, Oct 19
Beat South Carolina, 38-27
Sat, Nov 2
Lost to No. 8 Georgia, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Vanderbilt, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Missouri, 23-6
Sat, Nov 30
vs Florida State
You expect things to be a bit sloppy in the first game of the season, and they were. Fortunately for the Vols, they get some live fire reps against Georgia State to dial things in, and fortunately for Florida, Miami was just as sloppy as the Gators. The main takeaway from this game for me is that although Florida’s defense appears to be just as daunting as usual, the offense doesn’t look too intimidating. The first exhibit suggests that the offensive line is going to present a challenge that Feleipe Franks isn’t yet equipped to overcome.
That said, it obviously didn’t change my perception all that much, as I only bumped the forecast for the game from a 30% chance to a 35% chance. The main reason for that is that I’d already accounted for the offensive line.
Georgia Bulldogs
Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Vanderbilt, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Murray State, 63-17
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Arkansas State, 55-0
Sat, Sep 21
Beat No. 7 Notre Dame, 23-17
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Tennessee, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12
Lost to South Carolina, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Kentucky, 21-0
Sat, Nov 2
Beat No. 6 Florida, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Missouri, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16
Beat No. 12 Auburn, 21-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Texas A&M, 19-13
Sat, Nov 30
@ Georgia Tech
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC West
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Louisiana, 38-28
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Southern Mississippi, 38-15
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to Kansas State, 31-24
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Kentucky, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ No. 7 Auburn, 56-23
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ Tennessee, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 2 LSU
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Texas A&M, 49-30
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Arkansas, 54-24
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 5 Alabama, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Abilene Christian, 45-7
Thu, Nov 28
vs Ole Miss
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC West
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Duke, 42-3
Sat, Sep 7
Beat New Mexico State, 62-10
Sat, Sep 14
Beat South Carolina, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Southern Miss, 49-7
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Ole Miss, 59-31
Sat, Oct 12
Beat No. 24 Texas A&M, 47-28
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Tennessee, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Arkansas, 48-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to No. 2 LSU, 46-41
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Mississippi State, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Western Carolina, 66-3
Sat, Nov 30
@ No. 11 Auburn
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to North Carolina, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Charleston Southern, 72-10
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to No. 2 Alabama, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Missouri, 34-14
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Kentucky, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12
Beat No. 3 Georgia, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 9 Florida, 38-27
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Tennessee, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Vanderbilt, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to Appalachian State, 20-15
Sat, Nov 16
Lost @ Texas A&M, 30-6
Sat, Nov 30
vs 4 Clemson
UAB Blazers
Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in C-USA West
Thu, Aug 29
Beat Alabama State, 24-19
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Akron, 31-20
Sat, Sep 21
Beat South Alabama, 35-3
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ Western Kentucky, 20-13
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Rice, 35-20
Sat, Oct 12
Beat UTSA, 33-14
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Old Dominion, 38-14
Sat, Nov 2
Lost @ Tennessee, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ Southern Miss, 37-2
Sat, Nov 16
Beat UTEP, 37-10
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Louisiana Tech, 20-14
Sat, Nov 30
@ North Texas
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Toledo, 38-24
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Eastern Michigan, 38-17
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to No. 8 Florida, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Mississippi State, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Arkansas, 24-20
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 10 Georgia, 21-0
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Missouri, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to Tennessee, 17-13
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Vanderbilt, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat UT Martin, 50-7
Sat, Nov 30
vs Louisville
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to Wyoming, 37-31
Sat, Sep 7
Beat West Virginia, 38-7
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Southeast Missouri State, 50-0
Sat, Sep 21
Beat South Carolina, 34-14
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Troy, 42-10
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Ole Miss, 38-27
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to Vanderbilt, 21-14
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Kentucky, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ No. 6 Georgia, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 11 Florida, 23-6
Sat, Nov 23
Lost to Tennessee, 24-20
Fri, Nov 29
@ Arkansas
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to Purdue, 42-24
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to No. 4 LSU, 66-38
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Northern Illinois, 24-18
Sat, Oct 5
Lost to Ole Miss, 31-6
Sat, Oct 12
Lost to UNLV, 34-10
Sat, Oct 19
Beat No. 22 Missouri, 21-14
Sat, Nov 2
Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ No. 10 Florida, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to Kentucky, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat ETSU, 38-0
Sat, Nov 30
@ Tennessee
What about you? Where are your expectations heading into Week 1?
Last week’s appetizer gives way to the main course this week as college football kicks off in earnest. Here’s when and where to find the games that matter to Vols fans, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them. First up is the list curated just for Vols fans. The full schedule follows that.
College football TV schedule for Vols fans, 2019 Week 1
Thursday, August 29, 2019
Away
Home
Time
TV
How
Why
Georgia Tech
Clemson
8:00 PM
ACCN
Channel Hop
Brand new Yellow Jackets
Texas State
Texas A&M
8:30 PM
SECN
Channel Hop
SEC West contender
Utah
BYU
10:15 PM
ESPN
Live/DVR
Future Vols opponent
Friday, August 30, 2019
Away
Home
Time
TV
How
Why
Wisconsin
South Florida
7:00 PM
ESPN
Live
It's football
Saturday, August 31, 2019
Away
Home
Time
TV
How
Why
NOON SLATE
Mississippi State
Louisiana
12:00 PM
ESPNU
Live
Future Vols opponent
South Alabama
Nebraska
12:00 PM
ESPN
Check in
Former coaching candidate
AFTERNOON SLATE
Georgia State
Tennessee
3:30 PM
ESPNU
Live
Go Vols!
Duke
Alabama
3:30 PM
ABC
DVR
Future Vols opponent
South Carolina
North Carolina
3:30 PM
ESPN
DVR
Future Vols opponent
EVENING SLATE
Georgia
Vanderbilt
7:30 PM
SECN
DVR
Future Vols opponents
Missouri
Wyoming
7:30 PM
CBSSN
DVR
Future Vols opponent
Oregon
Auburn
7:30 PM
ABC
Live
Top 25 matchup
Sunday, September 1, 2019
Away
Why
Houston
Oklahoma
7:30 PM
ABC
Live
It's football
Monday, September 2, 2019
Away
Why
Notre Dame
Louisville
8:00 PM
ESPN
Live
It's football
Thursday features a few different opportunities. We’ll get some data on upcoming Vols’ opponent BYU, as the Cougars take on No. 14 Utah at 10:15 on ESPN. Prior to that, Georgia Tech rolls out an attempt to pound the square peg of a roster of players recruited to run the option into a round hole of a fancy new passing attack under a new coach, and SEC West contender Texas A&M is in action against Texas State.
There’s football on Friday night, too, if you care about either Wisconsin or South Florida.
At noon on Gameday, Vols fans should watch future opponent Mississippi State on ESPNU against Louisiana for whatever it’s worth, but you can also check in on former coaching candidate Scott Frost and his Nebraska Cornhuskers on ESPN against South Alabama.
The Vols host Georgia State at 3:30 on Gameday on ESPNU. Go Vols. Future opponents Alabama and South Carolina are in action at the same time on ABC and ESPN, respectively, so DVR those and watch them later this week.
The big game of the week is Oregon vs. Auburn at 7:30 on ABC, so watch that live. Future opponents Georgia and Missouri are on in the same time slot on the SEC Network and CBS, respectively, so DVR those for future reference and perhaps check in on them from time-to-time if Oregon-Auburn gets boring.
Because it’s Labor Day and opening weekend, there are interesting games to watch Sunday and Monday night as well.
Pardon the errors, as the bot understands neither southern accents nor football.
Joel: Welcome to the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast. Welcome back to the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast. I’m Joel Hollingsworth. And as always, I am joined tonight by the ever awesome Will Shelton. Will, how you doing this evening?
Will: I’m doing fantastic, man. Good to be back. Good to be with you. How are you?
Joel: I am doing well. It’s been I think all these little minor health annoyances have been ravaging their way through our house this week. And so I am slightly medicated. So I apologize in advance or or maybe I should charge extra. I don’t know. But yes, let’s. But. But it’s all good. We’re we’re working it all out. I was up at 445 this morning taking our youngest daughter to a procedure. She had to get bought Botox for her, for her hand. That is has a little bit of C.P. in it. And so that was fun being up so early from that day. They had to put her under and everything, I guess, because, you know, it’s like 30 shots in an arm for an eight year
Will: Oh,
Joel: Old.
Will: Yeah.
Joel: That’s a lot.
Will: Well, for thirty, almost thirty eight year old, I would go under for that too. So
Joel: Yeah.
Will: I understand.
Joel: Yeah.
Will: I was up at six, but only because my one year old felt like getting up at six. There was no legitimate reason for it. So, yes.
Joel: They tend to do that. They kind of rule the house in the sleep schedules department.
Will: Yeah. I’m figuring that out. So this is it. This is 9 0 8 in the p.m. when we’re recording this and I’m standing in the kitchen drinking coffee. So that’s kind of how it’s going.
Joel: So you won’t sleep at all and then he’ll wake you up again at 6:00 tomorrow.
Will: Now, I’ve just I’m immune. I feel like I’m just doing like any good addiction, it’s just for the routine of it. Like I feel like it has no effect on my life at this point.
Joel: All right, so so the podcast is back. School is in session, kick off just a few days away. You remember back in the day and I’m sure this just wasn’t like an Illinois thing. I’m I’m hoping it wasn’t. But you the first thing had to do when you got back to school in the fall, you had to write a paper or give a speech or something on what you did over the summer vacation. What do I do with my summer vacation? Right. So.
Will: Yes, that in the Alocoa city school systems as well in Tennessee. Yes.
Joel: All right. Good, so you got some reps in. So before we get into football, what was the coolest thing about your summer? That was not related to football.
Will: So my my wife is a cake decorator, slash dessert chef. More a she was a dessert chef, more in Tennessee
Joel: Wow.
Will: And more of a cake writer in Virginia. And like her,
Joel: You married
Will: Her
Joel: Well.
Will: Business is. Yeah. Listen, she. She acquired that skill after we got married, actually.
Joel: Whoo!
Will: So I
Joel: Bonus.
Will: Finished it. You had some had some some free time after finishing a degree and before we had our son. And so she took a class on a random Saturday about five years ago. She made a smoky gray Tennessee cake, which was exciting in 2014 and less exciting in 2019. But anyway, she
Joel: Just like the
Will: Turns
Joel: Uniforms themselves.
Will: Or they they will sell you a game. Used helmets, smokey grey helmet for a thousand dollars, literally a thousand dollars right now.
Joel: Well.
Will: So I don’t I don’t know how many of those who have left the showroom there. But anyway, she. Business is booming for her. So we are spending a lot of time out. I spend a lot of time the summer at farmer’s markets here in southwest Virginia and selling cupcakes and taking money telling people have a nice day and all that stuff. So that was that’s been fun, too. There’s a new a new wrinkle in our lives.
Joel: And gaining weight because you have a dessert connoisseur in the house or dessert,
Will: Well.
Joel: Master chef.
Will: Well, I’ve. I have managed all all the working out and running I do is just to break even. Because of that factor.
Joel: That’s the way to
Will: So,
Joel: Do it, though.
Will: Yeah, I joke I joke with people all the time. And so I can drink coffee with three servings of creamer at 9:00, 10:00 at night. But I joke with people that like when she’s in the kitchen and I hear her go, dang it or something more exciting.
Joel: You
Will: That’s
Joel: Celebrate
Will: The best
Joel: Like
Will: Move
Joel: Pavlov’s
Will: For
Joel: Dog. That’s like, yes. Like that one can’t be sold. But I will eat it. I will take that to the team. So she does so well like that. She’ll try out new flavors and stuff. And I’ll meet her over at the farmers market to be like, oh, man, I really wanna try one. And then she’ll sell out. I’m legitimately bummed.
Joel: Yeah.
Will: So
Joel: Yeah.
Will: If you’re in the south West Virginia area, come check us out on Tuesday night’s.
Joel: That’s right, because you can not eat a dollar.
Will: That’s right.
Joel: So that would totally bummed out, too. So what was that address again? The the farmer’s market in where?
Will: So we’re yeah, we’re in. We’re in Pulaski, Virginia, home of the Pulaski Yankees 2019 Appalachian League East Division Champions. Been doing a lot of baseball too this summer. But, yes. Anyway, we’re. I have no idea. Anyone actually listens to this in southwest Virginia. But if you do come by and say hi on first and third Tuesdays at the farmer’s market, at the train station. That’s that’s what I’ve been doing all summer. What have you been doing all summer?
Joel: Okay, so the two coolest things I did well, my my wife and I had our 25th anniversary, which was cool. And so well, that was back in May. And it took me until August to actually get get something scheduled. We went to a Daufuskie island. You’ve ever heard of Daufuskie?
Will: I have not. That sounds made up.
Joel: It does. I made up in it. You know, it it’s almost like it should be because it’s this island that is just south of Hilton Head. And you cannot get there by car. You have to take a ferry and you drive around on golf carts. And there’s like almost nobody there, especially this time of year. There’s 400 people that live there. And then, you know, anywhere they get to restaurants. Third, they’re convenience stores like half of a Weigel’s, you know. And most of its T-shirts and
Will: Half
Joel: Hats.
Will: My goals.
Joel: Yeah. So anyway, we went there. That was really cool. Also, the guys that I used to play in the band with way back in junior high and high school and a couple of years out of high school, we hadn’t played together in like 30 years and we all got together in Nashville for a little jam session and we learned some of the old songs. We had a draft for the songs we were going to learn re-learn. And then we got together and sounded bad for a couple of days and it was a lot of fun.
Will: A couple of days.
Joel: So,
Will: That’s serious business right there.
Joel: Yeah.
Will: That’s not just we’re gonna play a few. And thank you, everybody. Good night. Let’s say a is does this. Does this exist online somewhere?
Joel: There was a Facebook post where somebody recorded a little bit of us practicing. So we didn’t actually play in front anybody. I mean, we knew better in that way. We’d been asked to play like at homecoming for the thirty thirty first anniversary or reunion, you know. But I was like, you know what? Let’s get together and see how we sound before we play in front of people. There was a good thing. Two of the guys have actually been playing for a while in other bands stuff, but two of us were really rusty and it did start coming back. But there were some songs that we thought we could play that day that we turned out to be wrong about it.
Will: Right.
Joel: All right. So let’s let’s tie this summer thing into football. What was the what was the best thing you heard about the football team this summer and fall camp?
Will: You know, I think that this is the quietest somebody of for one on the air. We’ve been doing this under this since 2006. Joel, year 2005. I
Joel: Yep,
Will: Think. Right.
Joel: Yep.
Will: I came I started at Rocky Top Talk right after Lane Kiffin got hired, which is say it’s like it’s a great career starting point there on the on the big time blogs is right when it went bad for your whole football team. But
Joel: Yet we’re to blame for everything.
Will: Yeah, it’s fine. I can take it. But I I think this is by far like the quietest offseason that we’ve had. Some of that is basketball. The basketball conversation lasted so much longer because success of Team Plus Rick Barnes flirtation with UCLA, plus incredible recruiting like it’s just it’s just more fun to talk about basketball and football right now. So I think it’s that’s OK that it’s quiet about football at the moment, I think. Former’s presence, at least to me and probably of people of my late thirties generation. There’s just so much more trust there with the big picture, with him in charge that there’s there’s less of an need to be anxious going into Pruitt’s year, 2. Then I feel like there was with Dooley good I at this point with Butch Jones, we were so sold on the recruiting that it really didn’t seem fathomable that you could recruit the way he was recruiting and actually get all those guys to actually sign here in February and then have it turn out the way that it did in terms of just not developing that talent. And so I think that’s the biggest takeaway with the football team this offseason, is that there really wasn’t a big takeaway. That’ll all change here in three days, of course. But I just think it’s been quiet. And that’s not that’s just not altogether bad at this point. That’s one of my biggest offseason things, too, is the bar. The bar is both low and also more realistic than it’s been at any point that I’ve been doing this in 14 or 15 years. So like seven and five or eight and four is gonna go a long way with people. That’s what they end up doing. So I think it’s it’s that’s just kind of it’s kind of a cheating answer. But my biggest takeaway is that I really don’t have one. And I think that’s I think it’s all right. I think it’s a good, healthy ish reflection, both of where basketball has been for for a lot of a summer months, but just also kind of where the football team is now.
Joel: You know, the other thing we’ve learned over 14 or 15 years of doing this is that even though you go into the season thinking that 7 and 5 is OK when you actually have to experience it, it’s really not OK and everybody gets mad anyway.
Will: Well, there’s there’s a particular like if you if you’re trying to figure out how they get to 7 and 5, the easiest path is they’d be Kentucky, they beat Vanderbilt, they beat BYU. And you get South Carolina in Knoxville. That means you’re gonna lose four in a row in the middle. I mean, you’re going to lose Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State and Alabama. And yeah, I agree, no matter what we told ourselves about 7 and 5 being OK, if you lose four in a row that a with a bye week to some five weeks without a win. That’s
Joel: Mm hmm.
Will: Not going to be pleasant for anybody in the middle of that stretch.
Joel: Yeah. So for me, one of the things that I’m most excited about and most excited to see the results of is this idea. And I think it’s documented and verifiable that the team is a lot bigger and heavier and presumably stronger because of all that. I think it’s I think it’s really important. And I think I’m hoping that it really can matter a lot. You know, it’s kind of cool to hear Pruitt say sometime during fall camp that, you know, part of the problem with the O line last year wasn’t it wasn’t as much talent as it was asking them to play before they were before their bodies were ready, you know? And presumably now they’re more ready. Not just the new guys. We didn’t just recruit new, bigger guys, but the guys who were there got bigger themselves, you know? Tatum, I think he’s doubled in size in two years. Right. So if he’s holding off Darnell Wright over there. Right. Right tackle. You know, he’s he’s doing something right. And maybe it’s, you know, largely due to the fact that he’s bigger, heavier and able to do what he’s being asked to do. So I’m looking forward to seeing whether that makes a big difference. Hope it does.
Will: Yeah, and there’s an interesting. The guys you recruit at the top of your list are always the guys you expect to come in and perform right away. It doesn’t always work that way. I think Malik Grey was was Tennessee’s highest rated signee and one of those late Butch Jones years and he just left the program and never did anything here. So it doesn’t always work. But to these two highest rated signings were where Wright and Morris, your offensive tackles. So it’s natural to expect those guys are going to come in and be great right away. But man, offensive tackle is like the last place where you can really expect a freshman to come in and really be strong. Sometimes you just you do what you gotta do. I also think Trey Smith is not doing anybody any favors here because you’ve got this memory of where he came in and was great as a freshman. But man, it’s not fair to expect these guys to be Trey Smith in 2017. So that’s just a weird spot. The good news about that is there’s other freshmen, Eric Grey, Henry Toto. I’m glad I got to be the first one on the podcast. You shut
Joel: Well,
Will: Up.
Joel: done.
Will: Thank you. Hi there. So there’s other guys you can be excited about if you don’t get to see those guys. But I think this is the big storyline in the last 10 days or two weeks is are they really going to rotate? Eight to 10 guys on the offensive line. Is that really what’s best for business? I think that’s you know, just because just because Marcus Tatum is the starting right tackle against Georgia State or even BYU and beyond, doesn’t mean that your two highest rated recruits were a bust. It just means, man, it’s awfully hard to play true freshman at those positions when you’re getting ready to stare down that barrel of Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State, Alabama, South Carolina. That’s just that’s a big ask. So they’re gonna get opportunities. But I don’t I’m not convinced. It’s like the worst thing in the world if they don’t just come in here and start right away and play all these snaps. Tennessee has better options. That’s a good thing, because, man, you’re a freshman is your best option at tackled, and that’s problematic.
Joel: Yeah, and if there’s nothing behind them, but it sounds like we’re not just too deep, but maybe even a little bit more than that along the line, which is which is nice, especially with some of the attrition that we’ve had there too. So.
Will: I mean, that goes back to there, you’re not just saying about Bush, you’re talking about Dooley recruiting a class of those guys without any any linemen. And so, yeah, that’s that’s a long term problem that Tennessee is just now. Really next year, I think, is when we’ll be able to say, OK, now we don’t have to worry about this as much as we have for the last six or seven years yeah.
Joel: So I’m kind of allergic to hyperbole, but the more I hear, the more I’m reminded of Dooley’s no offensive line class. That’s just malpractice. That’s just terrible.
Will: You hate that word, too, I have used that word before or use it in a post and you’ve been like, I don’t like that word. Like as a lawyer,
Joel: Yeah.
Will: You know, like you
Joel: Yeah.
Will: Have the right to say that. And so that’s that’s Joel’s use of malpractice should be taken very seriously.
Joel: That is is very strong for me. Yes.
Will: Yeah. And you know, some of that is you look back on that now and I just wonder how much those guys had riding on. You know, if they’d done well in 2012, if they hired a different defensive coordinator or promoted Lance Thompson or whatever, and they won, you know, eight or nine in 2012, which probably would’ve felt like a big deal. You could have dodged Butch Jones, but I’m still not sure it would’ve been what was best for Tennessee in the moment going forward to have another year of Derek Dooley. So you just what we do this in the more Tennessee loses along the way. You know, you just kind of I. I spent a long time saying we don’t have enough information about Derek Dooley. And it’s affected the way I look at folks going forward in terms of trying to be a little more objective and things like that. But yeah. That’s that set Tennessee up for failure in ways where, you know, Butch, his first year, they still had all those Tyler Bray offensive linemen. But after that, man, I mean, and this is to tie this into this year. This is a really big question for me about this year’s team. And Jim Chaney too, Justin Worley got destroyed in a half a season twice because they were playing him behind an offensive line that wasn’t ready, that was having to go against get, you know, Coleman Thomas against Oklahoma in 2014.
Will: Like there were lots of just bad situations out there. And they put him, especially 2014 with those younger guys. They were trying to win games. And so they were taking a lot of shots downfield and putting Worley in a lot of positions where he was going to get hit a lot. And I’m curious to see with this particular offensive line, how much are they going to do that with Guarantano, who got knocked out of a bunch of games behind a bad offensive line last year? Some of this I still wonder, is this why Tennessee ran fewer plays in the country than any team last year? Because they’re just trying to do risk management or survive or whatever the case may be. But I’ll be curious to see how many times if they really feel like they’ve got the receivers and they’ve got the potential to take some shots downfield. Is there a part of them that says, man, that’s another shot Guarantano is going to take? And how how willing will they be to put him in harm’s way, especially against the teeth of that schedule there in October?
Joel: So I was going to I already praised you for saying To’oto’o. Name the next test was going to be saying the quarterback’s name, but you’ve already failed twice.
Will: Yeah. Guarantano. Yeah. It’s bad. It’s my bad.
Joel: Of course, we’ve had lots of failure there over the years. So,
Will: We all have. Yeah.
Joel: Yeah, yeah. I wonder why he didn’t correct anybody. He’s just, you know, you know that the lack of leadership that he’s finally going into his fifth year or fourth.
Will: That would be great if I hadn’t written that idiot optimist piece yet. And he’s finally worked up the nerve to tell us his name, his real name. It’s got to be worth two wins. Just makes it. He made the joke today about being called Guantanamo. That was
Joel: Yes.
Will: A was an Idiot Optimist joke from two years ago. The beaches of Dormandy and
Joel: Yes,
Will: Guantanamo.
Joel: I
Will: Garrett
Joel: Remember
Will: Taught
Joel: That.
Will: Him obey or whatever. So.
Joel: Yeah.
Will: Yeah. Yeah. Again, we’re all where? I’ll plead. I mean, I won’t plead the fifth. I’ll just I’ll just say, hey, man, we’re all guilty of that one. I’m very sorry that we did not have the correct knowledge on the correct pronunciation of your name.
Joel: Don’t ask us all dogs to do those new tricks right now. Yeah. All right. So big picture, meaning like just from a wins and losses standpoint right now. We’ll get in the details in a minute. But what do you. What do you hope to see this fall? What what are the most important games?
Will: Well BYU. I mean, that just feels like a game that you have to win. And we’ve seen us a couple times and seen it go a couple of different ways that Kiffin first year UCLA. It was a game. Well, we’re Tennessee’s got to win that game. And they didn’t. And they and they lost and in particularly frustrating fashion. But still, they got things turned around in October. They got a big meaningful win. And by the end of that year, nobody was still really chirping on that UCLA loss. So I’m not saying if they lose to BYU, then everything’s out the window. But that’s that’s just a big win to get. We’ll see two. I mean, we’re gonna see those guys late tomorrow night. I’m going to see those guys early Friday morning. Like, you know, just how I know we’re gonna talk about the gators here in a minute, but like that’s gonna make a big difference. We haven’t really had a year like this. Tennessee hasn’t played a cupcake in Week 1 since Butch Jones first year because we ran into that stretch of Utah state with Chucky Keaton and then Bowling Green and then Appalachian State and Georgia Tech and West Virginia. So it’s been a minute since we really don’t have to be overly concerned with Tennessee in week one. And you’re getting to shop before we take a snap. You’ve got a you’ve got a colorful opinion about the gators now. And you’re gonna get a good one with BYU here on on tomorrow night against Utah. So that could change if BYU wins that game. I think that may change folks opinion about the winnable nature or the percentage in our expected win total machine that you put on BYU.
Will: But I think getting that one allows you to survive whatever happens against Florida and whatever happens against Georgia. And I say whatever happens, I think it allows you to just kind of roll with the punches of a competitive loss to Florida and whatever happens with Georgia. Florida is the biggest opportunity on that on a schedule. You know, if you get that game, that’s going to mean a whole lot to a whole lot of people. But in terms of just what’s important for progress, BYU at the start, Vanderbilt at the end, especially if we’re in this business of six and six, is a realistic outcome. Then you could come to Vanderbilt at five and six and you just no matter what happens the rest of the year, you would lose some sense of opportunity by losing to those guys. It would knock it down a peg and bowl standings. It would be four years in a row, which seems incomprehensible, but it would be true. So those two to me, if you get those two games, then we’re assuming, you know, Tennessee just needs to pick up one more. Kentucky, South Carolina, somebody in there to get to six to get two more of those. You’re at seven. So that to me, Florida is always going to be your biggest opportunity available since I don’t think we’re ready to count Alabama in that conversation yet. But BYU and Vanderbilt at the beginning and the end, you get those I think you’re going to come out of this thing with at least an okay sense of how the season went. If you get both of those games.
Joel: All right. So that was all very compelling.
Will: But.
Joel: But yeah, I just I don’t really care about BYU, really. I don’t know why.
Will: Oh, oh, oh, no. No. Well, go ahead.
Joel: You know, it’s a non conference game. And I think are we we have to figure out how to compete in the SEC, you know, and that’s a long road because we’re a long ways away from winning the SEC championship. We’re a long ways even from winning the SEC East. And we’re actually a longer a ways away from even getting lined up with Florida and Georgia to compete for the east. I mean, we’re so far down that we got to worry about just not losing to Vanderbilt anymore, you know? And so I just I just don’t think I’m just more focused on the SEC. And I also think that we’re probably going to win for some reason. So I’m just not worried about it and I don’t really care. So it’s probably bad combination. So don’t tell the team that.
Will: I
Joel: That.
Will: Think I’m looking at it more from the sense of getting one early that you really were allowed to feel good about for
Joel: Yeah.
Will: More than that.
Joel: Yeah. That.
Will: And I think the way things have gone, I think they can survive a competitive loss with Florida and still go into the byway, get three and one excited about not the future, but excited about what the rest of this team could do, because we just haven’t had all the good that they did with Cincinnati, who is probably a comparable opponents. I’d have to go back and research that more. But that Cincinnati team, Butch Jones, Cincinnati, and seeing that they beat in ’11 probably comparable situation to a non power five team coming in. But everything good about that just got tossed when Justin Hunter blew up his ACL in the first
Joel: Yeah.
Will: Drive of the Florida game. So sometimes that happens. But you know, NC State, the good you felt about that, another maybe comparable to BYU kind of situation. You can’t give up a thousand plays of 80 plus yards against the gators a couple of weeks later in that year, in a year three when you’re supposed to pay it off. I just I just think you need a Tennessee needs a win
Joel: Yeah.
Will: And not not Georgia state, you know, and to get one before. This was Butch’s problem before 2016 is that his big wins came in mid-October or later and they were more stop the bleeding wins or change the narrative wins. It would be nice to get one in September that really counts and matters. And to do that before you have a payoff year before you have like a like a Battle at Bristol where you’re almost relieved to win the thing instead of just kind of being a right, we’re moving in the right direction sort of thing. So that’s that’s just kind of if you get BYU, I think it puts you in a better frame of mind as a fan and a healthier place to try to go. Get South Carolina. Kentucky. Vanderbilt. The games you’re talking about.
Joel: Yeah, I agree with all of that, the the the lingering impact, positive or negative, will be important just from the from the final result. It just doesn’t feel like something that we can’t recover from. I wouldn’t think into me that my whole analysis of the season going in is just sort of okay, let’s win the non conference. And I know, you know, if we don’t get BYU, then that’s, you know, an assumption that you’ve already made that you’re wrong on and that’s going to feel bad. So I understand that, but I’m just sort of assuming those four and then, you know, assuming three losses, Alabama, Georgia, probably Florida. And so I think the whole season comes down to those other S.E.C. East teams. And I’m I’m ignoring Mississippi State for now, too. But I think it comes down to the other SEC east teams because you got to get out of the cellar. You have to get out of the second tier of the SEC east. And I think that’s a first order of business. And so you get you got to not lose to Vanderbilt. That’s nonsense. Don’t do that anymore. And then you got to get two of the other three. South Carolina, which we haven’t beaten for much too long, too. And then Kentucky and Missouri get get two of those three. And I think that’ll be a success there. So that’s sort of how I’m running it down. Hope it works out that way.
Will: It’s interesting. I mean, you did a good job in our magazine pointing this out. There’s the scheduling really works to Tennessee’s favor against Missouri and really works against Tennessee when it comes to Kentucky, which there is a whole and I subscribe to this, too, I have even do it. And that win expectancy thing of. I just assume we’re going to beat Kentucky
Joel: Yeah.
Will: Because Kentucky couldn’t beat Tennessee. I mean, couldn’t compete with Tennessee last year then. You know, I don’t I don’t see it happening up there this year when they’re kind of in a rebuild reload. I know some of their fans want to call it reloading and we’ll see about that. But I just I just I’m more confident about Tennessee beating Kentucky at Kentucky than I am Tennessee beating South Carolina in Knoxville or Vanderbilt in Knoxville, for that matter. Just because of that, that sense from a Tennessee perspective, I know they beat us two years ago, but because of everything that was happening with Butch Jones, you just kind of forget about that one. So, you know, that’s. But it’s a good spot on the schedule to catch Tennessee there. But see, I think a lot of this conversation when we talk about record in which games are going to win and which games you’re going to lose. If if Tennessee finds a way somehow to sneak around and beat the Gators or beat Georgia, I know Georgia is off the bye week, too. But let’s. I just don’t think that’s a 0 percent. That’s not at Alabama. Georgia.
Joel: Yeah, Georgia to us is like Florida against us. No matter how different the teams are in in talent, Tennessee always has a chance again against them
Will: Yeah.
Joel: Or
Will: Yeah.
Joel: They tend to blow it against us. I guess I’ll put
Will: Yeah,
Joel: It that way.
Will: I think all of that is true, and I don’t think anyone would argue with that. Listen to this podcast. And so if you if Tennessee finds a way to get one of those, it just prevents that saying of where you go seven and five. But you feel like at the end of the year that you didn’t beat anybody because again, this is a lot of the Butch Jones narrative. You need to make memories and then you need to make them last. And can Tennessee go 7 5 and beat BYU, South Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and the other three non conference teams and be seven and five and say, OK, that was that was a tip of the cap to that year. Sure. But, you know, what are we going to be talking what are we going to remember out of that group at the end? Maybe it’s the bowl game. I don’t know. So you just I think the staff understands that all these guys been around big, big, big time college football long enough to know like some games just matter more than others. And so that, you know, that to me really is a piece of that puzzle, too. Yes. Tennessee needs to win all of those games that you’re talking about. Yes, that is the next step. You have to take it. You’re trying to make progress in the SEC East! But man, it would be really nice to get to get the gators or hey.
Will: Mississippi State has an outside chance of rolling in here undefeated. If they can beat Auburn, especially the week before they come to Knoxville, there is an outside chance you’re playing Mississippi State as a top 15 team. So that one also could be a potential bulls and board, you know, sort of sort of win. And Missouri certainly and and win to let out. Missouri has an outside chance of being whatever that is. Eight, no. Nine. And before they hit that stretch of Georgia, Florida and Tennessee. And if they split those two, they would still be ranked very high before they played played the Vols. So it doesn’t have to be get the gators or get Georgia. New opportunities arise all the time. None of us thought beating Kentucky would be such a big deal last year until it was. So you just got to. They just need to find seven and five would be a tip of the cap at a job well done, like I say. But oh, it would be so much better if it included at least one in there where we could go back and relive it at the end of the year and remember it fondly and not remember it like last season where you had two really memorable wins. But the moral of the story is you still went five and seven.
Joel: Yeah, and not just five and seven. Those last two games man, those were just catastrophes. All right. So apart from the big picture, let’s talk about some details. You did this thing over the summer, which I loved so much that I basically plagiarized it a couple of weeks ago. So not just looking at it like wins and losses and what’s teams we’re gonna beat and all that stuff. The things I’ve been calling lead measures, these are things that lead to winning before you get there. I tied them together. As you see, I put more third and short conversions. We’re going to do that more yards per carry regardless of down. We got to get more takeaways or get to get more sacks. We got to get better in the red zone on on defense. And we got to keep Guarantano out of the medical tent. So tell it. Tell us more about those things that you spent a lot of time on them over the summer. But let’s talk about some of those. What do you think are the most important ones? And what do you give me looking at early on?
Will: So the thing Tennessee was very worst that last year was running on third and short. That’s third and 1 through 3. The average is something like twenty one carries for twenty yards. You know, you remember you watch these games where early in the season, especially if it’s third and one it’s Pruitt, you know, he’s going to say let’s just get a yard and Tennessee just could not do that. So Tennessee was the only team in the country to average less than a than a yard and a half per carry on third and short and they average less than a yard, period. So.
Joel: That’s not very good, right?
Will: No, that’s very bad. Very, very bad. And there will be a point not. I mean, look, if Tennessee can’t line up and get a yard against Georgia State, then we don’t even need to have this conversation anymore. But I’d be curious to see against BYU, against the Gators, who clearly have some dudes on the defensive line. If it’s third and one, how many times is Tennessee going to run it into the interior and get stuffed before they decide? All right. Let’s do something else.
Joel: But
Will: Help
Joel: Let me stop
Will: By.
Joel: You there just for a second, just because this popped into my mind, you know, Pruitt, it took him a long time to learn that last year.
Will: Yeah.
Joel: Right.
Will: Yeah.
Joel: Does Chaney have to relearned that to where are we gonna have to wait for him to learn it now?
Will: That’s a good question. I don’t think Cheney would be afraid of first time offensive coordinator. It’s gonna be in their nature a little bit to two. First, the offensive coordinator for some play caller and like Helton was last year in that kind of situation. The old shotgun on third and one is so easy. You’re such an easy target when you do that and you don’t make it that. I think it’s easier for someone like Chaney, who’s so well established to be to get like we all hate shotgun on third and one. But that was a better option for Tennessee last year
Joel: Yeah.
Will: Than that. Lining it up and just go in. So I would trust Chaney in that situation. Maybe you got it figured out one game. But, you know, hopefully these guys can. These guys are paying for the fancy advanced version of the stats package that I’m just getting for free and compiling stats. So hopefully they know all that. But that’s that’s the big thing. The good news about that is if you’re in if you’re in third and 1, you did an all right job on the first and second. Now you know, you’re on schedule, as they say. So Tennessee was okay if they didn’t go backward on on first down. If they if they did something that didn’t wasn’t a sack or a blow up behind the line and there were fewer of those last year than there were the year before then they did okay. It’s just they couldn’t they couldn’t do what really should be the easiest piece of that. I mean, this is all in the piece I wrote. But statistically, it was better. It was better for Tennessee to be in third and medium and pass than to be in third and short and run. So that’s got to change or you just run less on third and short. So that’s the area for most possible improvement. The most interesting one to me as the business is about running fewer plays than anybody in the country.
Will: I just don’t know. I have got some guesses in terms of trying to protect Pruitt, trying to protect the defense. That really wasn’t good. Really wasn’t good. All year. They were good at creating turnovers against Auburn. And they were they were good enough to be sure against Kentucky. But Tennessee just got behind so quickly and so many of those other games, I think we really undersold how bad the defense was at times last year. And so one way you protect that is you just shorten the whole thing. And so I will be curious to see. I don’t expect Tennessee to run fewer plays in any team in the country this year. How much faster are they going? How many more plays are they? Are they taking? So that one to me is the most interesting in terms of if you’re still trying to keep Guarantano alive and upright. That’s that’s part of that equation. If your defense is behind your offense because you’ve lost significant contributors on your defense, your defensive line is you have no idea what’s going on up there right now. If you need to win games, if it’s easier for you to win games by scoring a lot of points this year and your head coach is one of the best defensive coordinators of this decade, how how’s that going to work? You know, is Pruitt going to be willing to say, all right, screw it, let’s win this thing? Forty five.
Will: Forty four. That’s not what he desires, but it may be what Tennessee’s best opportunity to win looks like. So those two, to me, are the most interesting. There are some others just just generally. You’ve got to create more turnovers. Think gets 15 and each of the last two years, that’s not doing you any favors. And just more explosive plays in the running game. Tennessee just didn’t have a lot of that last year. It’s there on the passing game, but wasn’t there in the run game. And also some of those pieces worked together in terms of being more explosives means you run fewer plays, but your your plays are more successful. If Tennessee can be good enough to get in a lot of third and short, again, just being a little bit better, little little improvements. And this is kind of the theme of our magazine, little improvements here and there. This is really good on special teams last year. It doesn’t matter when you’re getting beat up by 26 points by everybody. But some of those pieces of the puzzle are already in place. So, you know, just a little improvements and a couple of those areas could end up making a big difference for this team this year.
Joel: So this is one of the many reasons I love you, because that was like the most diplomatic way of saying you left out the most important thing that I wrote in my plagiarized version of a year earlier one. What about the number of plays? I wasn’t quite sure how to add a you know. I mean, are you. Are you going to be watching to see how fast they run or how many plays they run each game and all that stuff for that? That’s not really going to measure or just something you’re you’re sort of interested to see as a philosophic kind of change.
Will: I think I think it’s more philosophy than anything. I think that. Those guys were so aggressive against the gators last year and none of it worked.
Joel: Yeah, yeah,
Will: You know, like
Joel: Yeah.
Will: Like so hyper aggressive and I think hyper aggressive in measurable ways, not just because we’ve been watching Butch Jones for five years and we’re used to that stuff. I mean, everything was go for the throat. I think, again, these guys understand that some wins are worth more than others. And it just, you know, in unusual and surprising ways backfired on them. And then, you know, the team didn’t respond well when it backfired on him. It just the hole got much deeper, much quicker. So I wondered about that from from there going forward. But also, there’s still there’s just such a big jump from the Gators to Georgia and Alabama that, you know, against Georgia last year, their playing it mostly down. And that all had one. It was one big splash play. Right. They threw it to Ty Chandler. I think if I’m remembering this game. Right. And it was my son’s first birthday party that day last year. So I don’t have all the I got other memories going on there. But a.
Joel: Well, probably better ones.
Will: Yeah. But, you know, going into the fourth quarter there, they’re down, what, twenty four to twelve. So, you know, there is some merit to let’s play a certain kind of game and keep it close. Kentucky that that game plan really worked. It shouldn’t be Kentucky by more if they don’t fumble in the second half. So I’ll just be curious to see. I think Chaney can do it any way you want it. I don’t think he has to do up tempo and let’s try to score a touchdown on every play. And he hasn’t been that guy in his first year at places. He’s been much more. You know, we’re building something here and that kind of stuff. Now, I’m not sure any of the first places he’s been in the first year had that kind of talent coming back at quarterback and wide receiver that Tennessee has now. So if they can block it, I think you can do lots and lots of things. And again, we may look we may come to this thing the week after the Florida game and say they can’t block it like it’s just what it is. They still can’t walk. We can talk for hours and hours all we want. But if you can’t block it, you can’t do it.
Joel: Yeah.
Will: So,
Joel: Yeah.
Will: Yeah, I’m just I’m just interested philosophically in how are they are they going slow on purpose to protect the defense? Again, that may not have it all put together. Are they are they going slow on purpose to limit the number of times that their quarterback is going to get hit when they don’t have anybody behind them? And really, we didn’t get to see this a whole lot last year. We saw it against Kentucky and we saw it for a second against South Carolina. What do they do when they get up 10 points on somebody? What what sort of urgency or put the foot down on people? Do they do they really put the foot down on Kentucky with a blocked field goal and turnovers in the red zone? It wasn’t really the offense that did it. It was a Hail Mary at the end of the first half. And then just kind of, you know, keeping it together as much as you could with Auburn. They they went into conservative mode against Auburn at the right time, like all that worked out well and fine. But there’s just some stuff that these players just don’t know. These guys don’t know a whole lot about playing with a lead on a good team. So, yeah, I don’t I don’t. That’s a long and rambling answer to say I don’t know. I think it’s fascinating. I think it’s it’s really fascinating that Tennessee ran fewer plays in the country than any other team. But I don’t know how much that’s going to change this year. And I’m really interested to find out.
Joel: So speaking of, if you can’t block it, you can’t you can’t run it. We got a glimpse of Florida against Miami to kick off the season last Saturday. Defense looks good, but it was sloppy in the line, as I said, looked vulnerable. I mean, for both teams, me them getting getting them both confused. But I think they both looked bad on the offensive line. And Feleipe Franks is becoming one of my least favorite rivals ever. Quickly. But he looked rattle-able. So what do you think? Was it was that just first game rust that you’re probably noticing more because they were playing a good opponent on the first game? Or are maybe they not quite as good as advertised?
Will: The best comment on that game I can remember is somebody on Twitter had it looks like this game is being played in a monsoon and there’s not a drop of rain out there like that. My favorite, favorite comment about that game. The good news about the Gators is you’re gonna get another live fire. I don’t know who they got. They’re off this week. I don’t know who they got next. But then they got Kentucky. So you will at least we’ll get another data point on them before before we see them,
Joel: Do they
Will: Because
Joel: Have three
Will: The.
Joel: byes because of that? I should look at that.
Will: I think they they should, right, because they’re playing a week early on and they’ve got the same. They’ve got they have a week one by, you know. Nobody else has that weak one by other than them in Miami and I’m sure Arizona. But yes, I’m sure there’s there’s other buys built in there, probably one before Georgia because that’s how it works for them. But now I feel like in talking with other Tennessee fan, in talking, it’s fun being in southwest Virginia because you get, you know, objective opinion on games like that that everybody’s watching. But these folks don’t care if the Gators win or lose. And the objective opinion was just what a ridiculous like perfect week zero game it was. But I feel like among Tennessee fans and I can be talked into this, too, there’s this school of thought after being so aggressive against him last year. Like, maybe we should just wait for them to do something dumb. Looks like they seem they seem eager to be dumb on offense
Joel: Well,
Will: And
Joel: Defensively
Will: Maybe.
Joel: To you and the cornerbacks at the end of the game.
Will: Yeah. Yeah, a little bit. But I mean, like maybe, maybe, maybe we just sit back and are like, all right. Like, here you go. If you don’t score on us, it’s gonna be a twelve play drive and we think you’re gonna do something dumb on plays one through eleven. So, you know, it’ll be interesting to see. That’s the old again, we’re old guys doing this. The team that runs for the most yardage wins this game in Tennessee with with the one exception of of Dobbs and all those guys there. And then really weird 2016 game. Every time Tennessee tries to outgun Florida, they lose in this rivalry. So I appreciate the aggressiveness, even though it failed spectacularly last year. I appreciate that that mentality. But that’s why we just need we need to see him against Kentucky, because I feel like that’s kind of what you’re talking itself into now as well. Franks is going to throw a two stupid interceptions against us. He might, but he might not.
Joel: So one of the things I find really interesting about that Florida game is that, you know, the commentators were saying there’s you know, it’s it’s sloppiness because there is no preseason in the college game. And so, you know, people them in that have been thudding don’t know how to tackle yet. And they’ve got a lot of rust and stuff to knock off. And I just think you’re more likely to see that against a good team than you are maybe against, say, a cupcake. All right. So we got to we’ve got to wrap this up. But is there anything you want to say about Georgia State before we conclude sorry, Georgia State fans.
Will: No. No. I mean, I’m even struggling. I’m still more interested in big picture conversation about Tennessee than what’s going to happen against Georgia State this week. So. Even the even the interesting things of which like is Eric Grey going to be the first substitute for Ty Chandler? That’s interesting a little bit.
Joel: Mm hmm.
Will: But the other stuff, if you’re if it’s much more interesting beyond that and a couple of other kids, even questions like how many offensive linemen do they rotate some of that? We’re just going to say, well, it’s because we were playing Georgia State or is that really how it’s gonna be? So there’s there’s very little of that and more just about again, let’s enjoy our first week one cupcake since 2013. And let’s take a look at some of these other teams and let’s keep everybody healthy. And as long as Tennessee looks, you know, they’re favored by three or four touchdowns. As long as they do that, then I think we’re just kind of still in a holding pattern. And we’ll see what BYU does on Thursday.
Joel: So you think we cover? My machine is saying no.
Will: I think it’s I think it’s about right. It’s trending down, it’s trending. It was twenty five and a half. Maybe it’s the last time I saw it. So, again, one one question that is interesting in the big, big picture, how fast they put the backup quarterbacks in there. At what point are you comfortable with that lead? So I think that that could if Tennessee is up 20 one late in the third quarter and they go ahead and put the backups and then, you know, the fact that they don’t cover if they don’t cover from that point, I think that’s not really fair. But I think it’s about right. I think it’s, you know, twenty twenty seven, twenty eight four possessions. I think that’s I think that’s fine.
Joel: Well, that would be just fine with me. So you have my approval to set that line right there. So.
Will: I think what I picked up picks contests was something more like thirty five because it’s week one and I’m feeling good. But yeah, I you know, we haven’t earned the right to complain about this. This isn’t Butch Jones, year four. We haven’t. We haven’t earned the right to complain about being a Georgia state by only twenty five or whatever.
Joel: All right. Well, there you have it. Our back from summer edition of The Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast. Live from Daufuskie with no Internet. Actually, that’s not where I’m at. I’m back. I’m back from Daufuskie. I made it home on the ferry. So we will be back. We’re planning on a recap that we post maybe Tuesday morning podcast and then maybe a preview that we’ll probably post Thursday morning. But we’ll be playing a little bit by ear because we got youngins running the household and waking us up at 6:00 and making us drink caffeine with cream at nine thirty on the kitchen counter. So all subject to change. But as always, thanks for listening to the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast. We will see you next time whenever it is. And for Will Shelton, I’m Joel Hollingsworth. And thanks for listening.
Joel: And of course, then it went through, it just didn’t want to hear my thing about her, about Florida.
Will: That’s the trigger language about week zero announcers and all that good stuff.
Joel: Yeah.
Will: So.
Joel: Hey, do you mind if I turn it off, though, and try calling you back on Google Talk? Just in case we need
We’ve already published the lead measures we’ll be monitoring to gauge the Vols’ progress this fall, but before the season kicks off, we wanted to also provide a visual of all of the Vols’ statistical rankings from 2018 to show both where they need to improve the most and where they need to preserve their gains from last season.
Offense
The offense was surprisingly good in the red zone in 2018, and when they did throw, they averaged a lot of yards doing it and kept from throwing it to the other team.
But . . .
. . . Whoa. That is one terrible first impression every time we met a new set of downs. We might as well have skipped directly to second down and started from there.
Pretty much everything but the three items mentioned above was Not Good, but productivity on first down and not allowing tackles for loss are at the top of the wishlist heading into 2019 for the offense. Improving those two things will likely have a significant positive impact on the most important offensive benchmarks of Passing, Rushing, and Scoring Offense.
Defense
There’s a little less red here, but a lot more yellow. The main thing for the defense to accomplish this fall is to make major improvements in the red zone and then to tighten the bolts everywhere else until it all gets better. Unlike their offensive counterparts, they were not allergic to first down.
Special Teams
The Tennessee special teams units were fine in every phase but kickoffs. Improve that, and they’ll be the strength of the team until everything else catches up.
Turnovers and Penalties
The team wasn’t terrible from a penalties perspective last season, but the offense needs to not fumble as much as last year, and the defense needs to do a better job taking the ball away from the other team.
With the season opener just five days away, Tennessee will
kick off its 2019 schedule with a 3-game out of conference slate before the
all-important game against Florida starts the SEC gauntlet. The initial stretch features two games
against relatively lower-end competition (Georgia State and Chattanooga)
sandwiched around what should be a very tough game against BYU. So while the Vols will likely ease into the
season on Saturday, they must be immediately prepared for the game against the
Cougars and then of course be tuned up for the rest of the season. Given the way the schedule breaks down,
therefore, Tennessee must optimize those 120 minutes in Weeks 1 and 3. When Jeremy Pruitt waxed both poetically and
cryptically about the pros and cons of playing younger (and potentially more
talented) players vs. more experienced veterans, to a certain degree this is
what he was talking about. As you look
over a 12-game schedule, how do you get your main contributors tuned up while also
keeping them as fresh as possible, get your bench players snaps so they’re
ready when and if needed, and also give yourself the best chance of winning each
and every game? That’s the conundrum
facing every coach in America, but particularly when it comes to a roster with lot
of players
from the former
regime as well as newer players to work in, this opening schedule gives
Tennessee a chance to do all of those things as much as possible.
Below is a look, by position, at players at each position
who Coach Pruitt and his staff need to play as much as possible in especially
the games against GSU and Chattanooga and who in turn need to take as much
advantage as possible of the opportunity:
QB
JT Shrout
Brian Maurer
The story here is obvious.
Neither of the Vols backup Quarterbacks have ever taken a college snap,
and regardless of the optimism around the 2019 Offensive Line there is still a
greater-than-zero chance that one of them is needed for at least a handful of
snaps in a meaningful game this season.
Therefore, it’s imperative that Tennessee use these two games to not
only determine which of Shrout or Maurer are next in line behind Jarrett
Guarantano but also give both of them as many real (i.e., not simply 100%
garbage time handoffs) opportunities to learn and grow. That will not only clarify the depth chart
but also make Tennessee coaches at least slightly less nervous if and when one
of them has to actually play.
Tennessee has a commitment from 2020 stud QB Harrison Bailey
and also just had former 4-star and University of Maryland QB Kasim Hill
transfer in. While Hill’s future
scholarship status is unknown, his presence on the roster for 2020 along with
Bailey’s commitment will allow Tennessee coaches to rest a little easier about
the Quarterback position in 2020 regardless of whether Guarantano comes back
for his 5th season in Knoxville or not.
RB
Eric Gray
There’s only one non-veteran in the RB corps, and Gray is
someone Vol coaches and fans are very excited to see. He brings an element of play-making that’s
not only unique to this team but also potentially gives Offensive Coordinator
Jim Chaney a ton of flexibility with how he can utilize multiple formations and
personnel sets, especially in combination with fellow RB Ty Chandler. The guess here is that we don’t see a lot of
that dynamism against GSU since the Vols should be able to run up the score
without showing BYU anything to work on for the following week. But getting Gray his first college carries
will still be worthwhile since it will eliminate any jitters when he does get
carries that matter.
With the move of Jeremy Banks from RB to LB, Tennessee will
enter the 2019 season with only four RBs on the depth chart, one of which
(Carlin Fils-Aime) is a senior and one of which (Chandler) is at least a
potential NFL early entrant. The Vols do
have one RB commitment in the 2020 class in Tee Hodge, a big and talented
player from Maryville. Ideally there would
be a second, very talented back in this class.
However right now there is a dearth of legitimate options and the best one,
Ty Jordan, appears to be a heavy Texas lean due to his family’s medical
situation. Certainly the staff will be
on the lookout both for breakout senior season performers and also for any
shaky commitments to other schools. But
in the interim, Gray looking like a future star would at least make it a
legitimate discussion as to whether that second RB is in fact a need rather
than a “nice to have.”
TE
Andrew Craig
Jacob Warren
Princeton Fant
Jackson Lowe
Sean Brown
Although the Tennessee TE room has more bodies than it has
in a long time, outside of expected star Dominick Wood-Anderson and oft-injured
but skilled Austin Pope, there are zero career catches and barely a handful of
snaps among the rest. Craig is a walkon
who’s impressed the staff with his physicality and potential to also play some
H-Back, while Fant has bounced around between a couple of positions but has lot
of athleticism and good size.
Warren/Lowe/Brown are Pruitt signees with great size – especially as a
group now that Warren is up to the mid-240s after signing closer to 210 pounds
– with tons of promise. Ideally at least
one of them break through and force Chaney and TE Coach Brian Niedermeyer to
give them more and more snaps as the season goes on, and these two games are
the best opportunity for them to earn that in a lower-risk environment.
Right now the Vols do not have a commitment from a TE in the
2020 recruiting class, and realistically at this point only have one real
target in 5-star Darnell Washington. The
Vols are very much in that recruitment and will receive an official visit from
him during the season. However, the
other two top teams are Alabama and Georgia, two recruiting juggernauts who
have already hosted Washington a time or two more than Tennessee has. Complicating that recruitment is the notion
that Washington and 5-star Arik Gilbert (more on him below) are unlikely to
sign with the same team, and Tennessee/Alabama/Georgia make up Gilbert’s top 3
as well. Can Tennessee convince Gilbert
and Washington that Gilbert is truly a WR (a pitch that was Tennessee’s
originally and is likely being stolen by the other competitors) and sign them
both? Can they beat out those two
schools for either one of these studs anyway?
That all remains to be seen. What
is known, however, is that as good as Washington is – and he looks like an NFL
TE right now before playing a down of his senior season in high school – if a
handful of those freshmen can show they are potentially top-end SEC TEs than
signing one in this class becomes more of a luxury than a necessity. And with the potential complications with
Gilbert noted above, as well as potential issues with numbers in this class for
the Vols, that would be big.
WR
Jordan Murphy/Jacquez Jones
Cedric Tillman/Ramel Keyton
Tennessee’s WR rotation is as firmly set as any position on
the team, with three Seniors and Junior who’ve all played a lot of quality
football likely to get the bulk of the snaps and targets throughout the
season. However, beyond just the
ever-present chance of injury over the course of the season, no team can ever
have too many offensive playmakers, so were at least 1-2 of the group above to
step up and become a legitimate threat for Guarantano that would broaden the
options that Guarantano and Chaney have at their disposal. Murphy has of course
showed more in his career to-date than the others, but so far he’s left
everyone thinking there’s a lot more there.
Volquest.com has reported that
there have been some rumblings of Jones flashing some this preseason. Same for Keyton. Tillman is a big bodied WR who is still
fairly raw but who has physical gifts and plenty of time to develop them. In an ideal world the Vols stamp the blowouts
over GSU and Chattanooga early enough to get the veterans off the field and
these guys on early, allowing the coaches to see if any of them can truly help
this season.
The underlying storyline at the position is that with the
aforementioned veterans departing after this season (pending Junior Josh
Palmer’s season and subsequent NFL early entry decision) there is going to be a
ton of question marks at the position in 2020; therefore, a handful of these
guys at the very least showing the
potential to be legit SEC players next
season would not just be big for themselves individually but would also
clarify things for the Tennessee coaching staff in terms of numbers for the
2020 recruiting class. Right now the
Vols have commitments from one pure WR in Jalin Hyatt and then two players in
Darion Williamson and Jimmy Calloway who could project at WR but also have some
positional flexibility depending on team need and (especially for Williamson)
how their respective bodies change over the next few years. As noted above, Arik Gilbert is either target
1A or 1B at the position along with fellow 5-star Rakim Jarrett. Jarrett is ostensibly an LSU commitment but
the Vols were in great shape even before his teammate Mordecai McDaniel
commitment to Tennessee last week and then Hill – a former St. Johns College HS
player himself – enrolled at Tennessee.
The Vols also continue to recruit Alabama commitment Thaiu Jones-Bell,
but the necessity for yet another WR
signee will be illuminated over the course of the season and will depend on the
performance of these players as well as Palmer’s NFL decision.
OL/DL
The storylines from this angle are virtually the same for
both the Offensive and Defensive Lines, the positions with the most question
marks going into the season and therefore the positions that will ultimately
determine the ceiling and the floor for this team. While the OL has more experience than the DL,
both have tons of youth projected to play major roles while the rotations
aren’t set at either position as well.
Ideally the Volunteer DL is dominant against both GSU and Chattanooga,
getting all 11 scholarship players tons of work to prepare for the rest of the
season, and more than holds its own against a BYU OL that is experienced and
talented and many will see as a competitive advantage for the Cougars going
into the game.
It seems certain that at this point the best case for the OL
in particular is:
GSU: Tennessee
plays up to 10 players and gets great pass protection and push in the run game
throughout
BYU: Tennessee has
used the GSU game to narrow down the rotation to closer to 7-8 with a starting
5 they preferably ride the entire game with success
Chattanooga:
Depending on the success in the BYU game, Tennessee either continues to ride
with the 5 from the BYU game and then also gets the remaining 5 tons more work
OR has tweaked the starting 5 from the BYU yet still works in the other 5 to
gain more experience
The entire strategy should be aimed at heading to
Gainesville with a cohesive starting 5 that’s seen success together at least in
the Chattanooga game along with a deep bench that’s gotten tons of snaps this
season already
ILB
Henry To’oto’to
Shannon Reid
JJ Peterson
Jeremy Banks
Aaron Beasley
Solon Page
To’oto’to is going to start and looks like a Freshman phenom
who’s going to be a star at Tennessee.
Getting any Freshman reps in games like these is always important, but
when you’re truly counting on one it’s imperative. Reid is the most experienced of this group,
but these games will give him a chance to showcase the newly added bulk and
simply that he’s taken a real step towards being a true contributor in the ILB
rotation. Given Daniel Bituli’s injury
situation – and that he’s a player Tennessee can ill afford to be absent during
SEC play – Reid could very well start the opener.
The remaining four have seen a collective zero ILB snaps
during their respective careers.
Peterson is a former 5-star recruit who spent last season trying to
catch up from showing up late and out of shape.
He’s battled back from injuries early in fall camp and absolutely could
use the reps to get truly acclimated to major college football and for the
coaches to see if he’s really got 5 (or even 4)-star potential. Banks moved (back) to LB last week – Vol fans
know the deal here: very athletic and ultra-aggressive, Banks practiced some a
LB late last season and impressed, but because of depth issues at RB was moved
back. Gray has seemingly passed him in
the pecking order so it makes sense to give him another shot here, especially
with the relatively light ILB depth.
Beasley is a promising looking freshman who many (including in this
space) had pegged as a future LB despite starting out at S. He’s already been moved and these games are a
great chance for him to get his feet wet.
Page has been in the program for a few years and realistically probably just
doesn’t have the size or speed to play at this level. But getting kids like this some run,
especially in blowouts, can never hurt.
OLB
Kivon Bennett
Quarvaris Crouch
Roman Harrison
Bennett needs to show that his slimmed down frame has
brought with it new explosiveness – these games are a chance for him to earn
real snaps along with Deandre Johnson opposite Darrell Taylor and try to hold
off Crouch and Harrison, two freshmen who are likely to provide at least
rotational snaps at the position as they both bring a level of speed and
athleticism missing on the roster.
Florida’s OL held up reasonably well against Miami’s pass rush this past
Saturday night, but they are still inexperienced and a relative weakness for
the Gators and QB Felipe Franks is abysmal when under pressure. Therefore, figuring out how to maximize the
pass rush while minimizing the number of blitzes will be key for Tennessee In
that game, which is why it is essential that the Vols staff uses these two
games to get their young pass-rushers ready.
The news over the weekend about Bryce Thompson, and the
uncertainty that brings to Tennessee’s secondary while his situation is sorted
out, makes this particular section all the more meaningful. We’ll operate under the assumption that
Thompson misses at least the GSU game, in which case it’s likely that Freshman
Warren Burrell will start alongside Sophomore Alontae Taylor at Cornerback
while Junior Shawn Shamburger, a relatively little-used but talented player,
continues to project as the starting Nickelback. It would also mean that all of the other
players above, from the returning players getting one of their first respective
starts like Shamburger and Flowers; returning players who have played very
little such as George, Labruzza, and Davis; and Burrell’s fellow Freshmen
Fields, Means, and Solomon, will all move up a slot in the rotation against GSU
and Chattanooga. The starters will need
to show that they’re capable of being high level SEC players, while the less
experienced returners and the freshmen sans Burrell will have an opportunity to
show that they can help this season and then be meaningful contributors and
possibly starters down the road in their careers. A guy like Means,
who moved over from WR this fall and has shown promise to go with his physical
gifts, or a guy like Solomon who could be used on Kick Returns (especially in
Thompson’s absence, and especially in low-risk situations), have unique opportunities
to show they belong.
Ultimately the best thing that can come from these games is
for Tennessee to come out of them with tons of confidence, newly experienced
players, and a clean injury sheet. The
latter is arguably the most important but is also the thing most out of anyone’s
control. So the staff must focus on the
first two and maximize the opportunities so that they give the team the best
chance to hit its ceiling.
When the Butch Jones era took a decisive turn from still possible to highly improbable via a 41-0 beat down from Georgia, we wrote on its failure to make lasting memories. The Vols missed opportunities to score a “we’re back!” win on the way to being nationally competitive, then saw the most famous first half of a season since at least 1992 turn into the most infamous second half of a season in my lifetime. As a result, though Butch Jones’ teams beat five ranked foes (and five more than Derek Dooley’s), even their most memorable victories still carry a “Yeah, but…” quality. In this way, some of my most enjoyable memories from those five years, at least for now, are lesser-known wins: Josh Dobbs’ coming out party at South Carolina in 2014, or bowl thrashings of Iowa and Northwestern that rightfully ushered in off-season optimism.
As we wrote two years ago, you can make a memory in any season. But you need that season to be ultimately successful for those memories to last well.
This happened in Jeremy Pruitt’s first season. The Vols beat #11 Kentucky by 17 points, and scored one of the five biggest Vegas upsets of my lifetime at #21 Auburn. But they didn’t become the dominant memory of 2018 because the Vols failed to earn bowl eligibility, much the same as what happened to Butch Jones’ win over #11 South Carolina in 2013. Finishing 5-7 overall carried more weight than those two wins.
The good news: eight days before kickoff, the bar seems to be holding at realistic goals for a successful year two. And since we really haven’t had what the majority would consider a successful year in this decade, any lasting memories this team makes will have a chance to resonate for a long time.
In its final year, what would you consider the biggest wins of this decade? And how would they compare to the biggest wins of the previous two? Your mileage may vary, but here are my picks:
90’s
00’s
10’s
1
98 Florida State
01 Florida
16 Florida
2
98 Florida
04 Florida
16 Georgia
3
95 Alabama
04 Georgia
15 Georgia
4
98 Arkansas
07 Kentucky
13 South Carolina
5
91 Notre Dame
05 LSU
15 Northwestern
6
97 Auburn
03 Alabama
14 South Carolina
7
96 Alabama
02 Arkansas
16 Virginia Tech
8
90 Florida
03 Miami
14 Iowa
9
92 Florida
06 Georgia
18 Auburn
10
95 Ohio State
07 Georgia
18 Kentucky
Fun fact: eight of those ten from the 1990’s came against top ten foes. Even in the 00’s, there’s a stacked honorable mention category (06 Cal, 03 Florida); it would’ve been tough for anything Lane Kiffin did in 2009 to make this list even before he left.
But in this decade, you can get famous in a hurry. For individual drama, I’m not sure the 2019 Vols can do anything to top 2016 Florida and Georgia; I could live a long time and not see anything like either of those games. But for what a win can mean to a season and the narrative of the program? Make a memory this year, and follow through with a successful season?
The 2019 Vols may not be in the championship conversation. But they’ll have their chances to be remembered around here for a long time, and to be the first team in a long time to have the memories they make truly last well. That’s the legacy before Jennings, Callaway, Taylor, Bituli, and Warrior, guys who’ve been here through all of the above. And it’s the opportunity before the younger guys on this team: take a real, meaningful step this year and not only be remembered well, but position yourself to make even bigger memories as you go.
Our annual picks contest through Fun Office Pools is back! If you played before, you should’ve received an email inviting you to play again. If you’re new with us, you can play for free and join our pool here!
As always, we pick 20 games per week, straight up, using confidence points: you put 20 points on the pick you’re most confident in, 1 point on the pick you’re least confident in, etc.
The pool is now open, and includes Week 0 games, so get your picks in before this Saturday. Here’s the opening slate:
That’s what my court-appointed therapist made me say out loud in her office. A bunch. I guess my debts finally caught up to me after I spent all that money on Bristol, non-refundable hotel/airfare to Tampa, and the Vols at 18-1 to win the title three years ago, in addition to my losings last year. Thought I’d double down on the Vols at 16-1 to win the title in basketball back in March. Turns out I was not the first person to start a sentence with, “But your honor, the referees…” in a Knox County courtroom.
So it was either jail, or counseling and a payment plan. I started to ask if they had the SEC Network in jail, but my wife intervened and now I get to talk about my feelings twice a month.
It’s not been all bad. My life has more structure now. That’s another word my therapist makes me say a lot. I started playing basketball again; they think it’s for my health, which is fine. If it’s also for the off chance I run into Ryan Cline at the YMCA, well that’s fine too.
But look, seven wins…I mean, that’d be progress, right? Not losing to Will Muschamp or (Fulmerized) Vanderbilt for the fourth straight year would be progress. Seven wins is what Vegas thinks, and I think at this point it’s clear they’re smarter than me. And if we do win seven and then get the bowl – probably a nice trip to Nashville or Memphis, right? – then 8-5 would be better than any of the other non-Fulmers did in their second year. Heck, it’d be the third-best year in the last twelve!
But ESPN’s FPI has us at 7.6 wins. I’m not smart enough to understand all the advanced math and computers and whatnot behind that number. But I am smart enough to round up. And if by God ESPN has us at eight wins, how can we not think we’re going to win at least that? They’ve hated us longer than anybody, so much so that now they just don’t talk about us at all, which, I’ll be honest, does hurt my feelings a little. No true Tennessee fan can let ESPN believe the Vols are going to win more games than we do.
So, eight wins. Eight wins is a good year. Eight might even get us to Jacksonville or Tampa for the holidays. I’ve still got all my Tampa maps in the glove compartment! Win the bowl, and now we’re at 9-4, which would mean ol’ Jeremy did as well in only year two as anyone who’s tried to replace the battle captain, including Butch Jones with all that (Fulmerized) talent. And year two is supposed to be the magic year, right?
Well, if that’s the case, then we gotta win nine. 8-4 would be fine, but it ain’t magical. You want magic, you want the year two bump, that’s gotta be 9-3. That would be the best regular season since 2007, and if we win that bowl game it’d be the first time we didn’t lose four games the whole year since 2004! Heck, that’d probably be Orlando; we haven’t been there since the kid from Elizabethton outran the ghost of Charles Woodson. I haven’t even had the opportunity to get thrown out of Disneyworld since then!
Look, nine wins ain’t really that hard, right? Georgia State, Chattanooga, UAB, that’s three. Clearly, Kentucky can only beat us if Derek Dooley or Butch Jones is the head coach, that’s four. Dooley is at Missouri now, and sure, they beat us last year after Guarantano got knocked out in the first quarter. Then their head coach talked (Fulmerized) about Jeremy. When they asked Odom about it later, he said, “We were able to visit in person soon after that.” I bet. That’s five. Besides, they play us after they play Georgia and Florida back-to-back. So does South Carolina, as it turns out, so that’s six.
Mississippi State? Name one player on their team. That’s seven. We also play BYU, which is fine, though I’m unsure why we can’t schedule a good Baptist school. That’s eight. And then Vanderbilt. Look, I’ve been doing this a long time. The joke used to be we don’t even mention Vanderbilt in this thing because it’s such an automatic win. So let’s go back to that and see if it works. That’s nine.
So 9-3, with wins over Georgia State, BYU, Chattanooga, Mississippi State, South Carolina, UAB, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. That means our only losses would be to Florida, Georgia, and Alabamokay, nevermind.
Ten wins. Ten wins is a good year.
Look, we can’t play any worse against Florida, let’s start there. Do you know how hard it is to have your first ten drives end in something other than a punt or a touchdown? Both my preacher and my therapist have warned me against using the devil as a scapegoat so often, but I mean, come on. If the greatest trick he ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist, the second greatest trick is pretty much every Tennessee-Florida game the last five years. Don’t think he didn’t try to get Jauan running down that sideline in 2016. I’m really glad that dude is still on our team.
And Georgia? Hey man, you could build our entire off-season argument around being down just 12 points to those guys in the fourth quarter last year, and that was before we called Jim Chaney home. In Knoxville, off the bye week? Who cares if Georgia is coming off the bye week too! We could beat them!
That’s 11 wins! And Bama just got punched in the mouth by Clemson, and everyone is telling me how their next head coach is gonna be our current head coach? Riddle me this: couldn’t Jeremy beat Bama so bad he didn’t want to be their coach anymore?
When the Vols finally kick off in a couple of weeks, all eyes will be drawn to the shiny objects. We’ll scan the field in search of Wanya Morris, Darnell Wright, Henry To’oTo’o, and Quavaris Crouch, and we’ll hope to see them doing well. The new blood is always the first place we look when searching for hope.
But hope is found not only in new faces or in lag measures like win/loss records. It’s also found in lead measures, those details that lead to the final results you’re after, and you don’t have to wait until the end to analyze those.
We here at GRT are as interested in the new guys as everyone else, but we’ll also be looking closely at certain details, those specific lead measures that will likely foretell final success or failure long before it happens.
Here’s a partial list of the lead measures we’ll be watching when the team kicks off this fall. Will covered some of this in series earlier this summer, but I wanted to gather them all here for the late arrivals and for the purpose of adding to the conversation.
Lead measure No. 1: More third-and-short conversions
Last year Tennessee ran the ball 21 times on 3rd-&-1-to-3. They gained just 20 yards. Those 0.95 yards per carry on third-and-short weren’t just last in the country: Liberty finished 129th, and averaged 1.52 yards per carry. The Vols were the only team in America to average less than a yard-and-a-half per carry on third-and-short, and the Vols averaged less than a yard period.
Ugh.
For my money, this is the thing I’m most interested to see this fall. The early returns will serve as the best prognosis for the offensive line.
The fact that the fate of the 2019 Volunteers is primarily in the big paws of the big men up front on offense is one of college football’s worst-kept secrets. They have additional goals, no doubt — keeping Jarrett Guarantano in one piece and on the field, giving him time to throw, keeping tackles for loss to a minimum, and providing the running backs with sufficient time and space to improve their overall yards per carry regardless of down — but productivity on third-and-short is the canary in the coal mine, and we like our canaries alive, thank you very much.
What to watch for: To be average in this category, the Vols should get somewhere around 4.5 yards on third down with 1-3 yards to go. To be one of the best 25 teams in this category, we’d want to see them get around 5.5 yards.
Lead measure No. 2: More yards per carry regardless of down
The allocation of credit for an offense’s productivity running the ball is an age-old question. The guy carrying the ball gets all of the glory, of course, but he’d get nowhere without his blockers. How much credit to give the big guys, though, is up for debate. I’m inclined to give them a bunch.
So, when a running back struggles, it makes sense to lay much of the blame on the offensive line as well.
Tennessee last season averaged only 3.7 yards per carry, ranking 108th in the nation. If that number improves this fall, it should indicate that the offensive line has indeed improved and the canary lives another day.
What to watch for: Tennessee could work its way into mediocrity by reaching somewhere around 4.5 yards per carry. Over 5 should get them into the Top 25.
The result: just 15 turnovers in each of the last two seasons, 97th nationally in 2017 and 101st in 2018 (stats via SportSource Analytics). That total joins anemic defenses from 2011 (18 turnovers), 2012 (17), and a what-could-have-been unit from 2015 (19 turnovers) in Tennessee failing to break 20 turnovers five times in the last eight years.
Note that this is “turnovers gained,” not “turnover margin.” The Vols were pretty good at protecting the ball when they had it last season, ranking 30th nationally in turnovers lost. They just weren’t very good at taking it away from the other team.
What to watch for: You’d like to see the Vols get at least around 20 turnovers, so maybe 1.6 or so per game to stay on pace. That’s just to get to the median, though. If you’re shooting for the best 25, you want to see somewhere around 24, or an average of 2 per game.
As Will points out in the above article, one of the leading causes of turnovers is sacks, because a sack is a two-pronged problem for an offense. First, they’re often a surprise to the quarterback, who’s not protecting the ball but getting ready to throw it, so he’s more likely to fumble it when hit. Second, even if the quarterback does manage to throw it with an animal bearing down on him, the pressure of a near-sack greatly increases the odds of an interception.
And that brings us to . . .
Lead measure No. 4: More sacks
Bad news: Tennessee had only 25 sacks all of last season, good for only 67th in the nation.
More bad news: 9 of those came from Kyle Phillips, Alexis Johnson, Emmitt Gooden, and Darrin Kirkland, Jr., none of whom will take the field this fall.
Good news: returning outside linebacker Darrell Taylor contributed 8 of them.
Bad news: 7 of Taylor’s sacks came in only two games.
Good news: Those two games were against Georgia and Kentucky, two of the season’s toughest opponents/most important games.
More good news: Everybody knows consistency is the theme of the season for Taylor, and a little additional focus should go a long way for such a talented dude. Derek Barnett had 13 in 2016 with only four goose eggs. He had 1 sack in 6 games, 2 in 2, and 3 in 1. That’s your target, Mr. Taylor.
More bad news: Every opponent knows all of this about Taylor as well, so he’s going to get extra attention from the pass-blockers. This, of course, will create opportunities for Taylor’s teammates.
What to watch for: Tennessee’s ability to generate more sacks this season is one of the main games-within-the-games to watch this fall. They averaged 2.08 sacks per game last season, and we’d like to see an improvement to 2.75 per game this fall. The question marks along the all-new defensive line will make this especially interesting.
Opponents converted 41 of 45 red zone opportunities against the Vols last year, 91.1%, and only two of those four stops came in meaningful situations. That scoring percentage ranked 120th nationally last fall. Opponents scored touchdowns 30 times in those 45 trips; a 66.7% red zone touchdown percentage ranked 90th nationally. (stats via SportSource Analytics)
My first inclination upon seeing this is to simply say that it’s correlated with a defense that was bad everywhere, but that’s really not the case. Tennessee was 49th in total defense, 52nd in rushing defense, and 60th in passing yards allowed. That’s not good, of course, but it doesn’t explain 90th and 120th in red zone touchdowns allowed and red zone scoring allowed.
So what’s the answer here?
I have no idea.
I am intrigued by something I read suggesting that football gets less speedy and more twitchy as the field shrinks and that therefore not knowing what to do matters more because it puts you at an instinctual disadvantage. But I’m not really sold on that idea, either. My humble advice: Do better. 🙂
What to watch for: The target for how often an opponent scores when in the red zone is about 82% for just good and about 76% for really good. Either of those would show improvement.
Bonus measure: More Guarantano, less medical tent
Jarrett Guarantano is better than you think he is. The team needs to protect him better and provide him more time and space to operate so that he can stay on the field instead of the medical tent while the trainers put Humpty back together again.
The odd thing is, the offense wasn’t nearly as terrible at allowing sacks as you might think. Opponents managed 1.92 sacks per game against the Vols, which puts Tennessee at 47th in the nation. Again, a galaxy far, far away from home, but not as bad as it seemed.
I think the real problem is that not all sacks are equal and that each one Guarantano suffered felt like a catastrophe and made you legitimately concerned for his long-term well-being. That, and the fact that 39% of his throws last season were made under pressure.
I’m not sure what stat to watch to monitor this. As far as I know, no one tracks hits on the quarterback that send him to the sideline, but having Guarantano remain on the field for every meaningful offensive snap is a good day.
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