We’ve already published the lead measures we’ll be monitoring to gauge the Vols’ progress this fall, but before the season kicks off, we wanted to also provide a visual of all of the Vols’ statistical rankings from 2018 to show both where they need to improve the most and where they need to preserve their gains from last season.
Offense
The offense was surprisingly good in the red zone in 2018, and when they did throw, they averaged a lot of yards doing it and kept from throwing it to the other team.
But . . .
. . . Whoa. That is one terrible first impression every time we met a new set of downs. We might as well have skipped directly to second down and started from there.
Pretty much everything but the three items mentioned above was Not Good, but productivity on first down and not allowing tackles for loss are at the top of the wishlist heading into 2019 for the offense. Improving those two things will likely have a significant positive impact on the most important offensive benchmarks of Passing, Rushing, and Scoring Offense.
Defense
There’s a little less red here, but a lot more yellow. The main thing for the defense to accomplish this fall is to make major improvements in the red zone and then to tighten the bolts everywhere else until it all gets better. Unlike their offensive counterparts, they were not allergic to first down.
Special Teams
The Tennessee special teams units were fine in every phase but kickoffs. Improve that, and they’ll be the strength of the team until everything else catches up.
Turnovers and Penalties
The team wasn’t terrible from a penalties perspective last season, but the offense needs to not fumble as much as last year, and the defense needs to do a better job taking the ball away from the other team.
With the season opener just five days away, Tennessee will
kick off its 2019 schedule with a 3-game out of conference slate before the
all-important game against Florida starts the SEC gauntlet. The initial stretch features two games
against relatively lower-end competition (Georgia State and Chattanooga)
sandwiched around what should be a very tough game against BYU. So while the Vols will likely ease into the
season on Saturday, they must be immediately prepared for the game against the
Cougars and then of course be tuned up for the rest of the season. Given the way the schedule breaks down,
therefore, Tennessee must optimize those 120 minutes in Weeks 1 and 3. When Jeremy Pruitt waxed both poetically and
cryptically about the pros and cons of playing younger (and potentially more
talented) players vs. more experienced veterans, to a certain degree this is
what he was talking about. As you look
over a 12-game schedule, how do you get your main contributors tuned up while also
keeping them as fresh as possible, get your bench players snaps so they’re
ready when and if needed, and also give yourself the best chance of winning each
and every game? That’s the conundrum
facing every coach in America, but particularly when it comes to a roster with lot
of players
from the former
regime as well as newer players to work in, this opening schedule gives
Tennessee a chance to do all of those things as much as possible.
Below is a look, by position, at players at each position
who Coach Pruitt and his staff need to play as much as possible in especially
the games against GSU and Chattanooga and who in turn need to take as much
advantage as possible of the opportunity:
QB
JT Shrout
Brian Maurer
The story here is obvious.
Neither of the Vols backup Quarterbacks have ever taken a college snap,
and regardless of the optimism around the 2019 Offensive Line there is still a
greater-than-zero chance that one of them is needed for at least a handful of
snaps in a meaningful game this season.
Therefore, it’s imperative that Tennessee use these two games to not
only determine which of Shrout or Maurer are next in line behind Jarrett
Guarantano but also give both of them as many real (i.e., not simply 100%
garbage time handoffs) opportunities to learn and grow. That will not only clarify the depth chart
but also make Tennessee coaches at least slightly less nervous if and when one
of them has to actually play.
Tennessee has a commitment from 2020 stud QB Harrison Bailey
and also just had former 4-star and University of Maryland QB Kasim Hill
transfer in. While Hill’s future
scholarship status is unknown, his presence on the roster for 2020 along with
Bailey’s commitment will allow Tennessee coaches to rest a little easier about
the Quarterback position in 2020 regardless of whether Guarantano comes back
for his 5th season in Knoxville or not.
RB
Eric Gray
There’s only one non-veteran in the RB corps, and Gray is
someone Vol coaches and fans are very excited to see. He brings an element of play-making that’s
not only unique to this team but also potentially gives Offensive Coordinator
Jim Chaney a ton of flexibility with how he can utilize multiple formations and
personnel sets, especially in combination with fellow RB Ty Chandler. The guess here is that we don’t see a lot of
that dynamism against GSU since the Vols should be able to run up the score
without showing BYU anything to work on for the following week. But getting Gray his first college carries
will still be worthwhile since it will eliminate any jitters when he does get
carries that matter.
With the move of Jeremy Banks from RB to LB, Tennessee will
enter the 2019 season with only four RBs on the depth chart, one of which
(Carlin Fils-Aime) is a senior and one of which (Chandler) is at least a
potential NFL early entrant. The Vols do
have one RB commitment in the 2020 class in Tee Hodge, a big and talented
player from Maryville. Ideally there would
be a second, very talented back in this class.
However right now there is a dearth of legitimate options and the best one,
Ty Jordan, appears to be a heavy Texas lean due to his family’s medical
situation. Certainly the staff will be
on the lookout both for breakout senior season performers and also for any
shaky commitments to other schools. But
in the interim, Gray looking like a future star would at least make it a
legitimate discussion as to whether that second RB is in fact a need rather
than a “nice to have.”
TE
Andrew Craig
Jacob Warren
Princeton Fant
Jackson Lowe
Sean Brown
Although the Tennessee TE room has more bodies than it has
in a long time, outside of expected star Dominick Wood-Anderson and oft-injured
but skilled Austin Pope, there are zero career catches and barely a handful of
snaps among the rest. Craig is a walkon
who’s impressed the staff with his physicality and potential to also play some
H-Back, while Fant has bounced around between a couple of positions but has lot
of athleticism and good size.
Warren/Lowe/Brown are Pruitt signees with great size – especially as a
group now that Warren is up to the mid-240s after signing closer to 210 pounds
– with tons of promise. Ideally at least
one of them break through and force Chaney and TE Coach Brian Niedermeyer to
give them more and more snaps as the season goes on, and these two games are
the best opportunity for them to earn that in a lower-risk environment.
Right now the Vols do not have a commitment from a TE in the
2020 recruiting class, and realistically at this point only have one real
target in 5-star Darnell Washington. The
Vols are very much in that recruitment and will receive an official visit from
him during the season. However, the
other two top teams are Alabama and Georgia, two recruiting juggernauts who
have already hosted Washington a time or two more than Tennessee has. Complicating that recruitment is the notion
that Washington and 5-star Arik Gilbert (more on him below) are unlikely to
sign with the same team, and Tennessee/Alabama/Georgia make up Gilbert’s top 3
as well. Can Tennessee convince Gilbert
and Washington that Gilbert is truly a WR (a pitch that was Tennessee’s
originally and is likely being stolen by the other competitors) and sign them
both? Can they beat out those two
schools for either one of these studs anyway?
That all remains to be seen. What
is known, however, is that as good as Washington is – and he looks like an NFL
TE right now before playing a down of his senior season in high school – if a
handful of those freshmen can show they are potentially top-end SEC TEs than
signing one in this class becomes more of a luxury than a necessity. And with the potential complications with
Gilbert noted above, as well as potential issues with numbers in this class for
the Vols, that would be big.
WR
Jordan Murphy/Jacquez Jones
Cedric Tillman/Ramel Keyton
Tennessee’s WR rotation is as firmly set as any position on
the team, with three Seniors and Junior who’ve all played a lot of quality
football likely to get the bulk of the snaps and targets throughout the
season. However, beyond just the
ever-present chance of injury over the course of the season, no team can ever
have too many offensive playmakers, so were at least 1-2 of the group above to
step up and become a legitimate threat for Guarantano that would broaden the
options that Guarantano and Chaney have at their disposal. Murphy has of course
showed more in his career to-date than the others, but so far he’s left
everyone thinking there’s a lot more there.
Volquest.com has reported that
there have been some rumblings of Jones flashing some this preseason. Same for Keyton. Tillman is a big bodied WR who is still
fairly raw but who has physical gifts and plenty of time to develop them. In an ideal world the Vols stamp the blowouts
over GSU and Chattanooga early enough to get the veterans off the field and
these guys on early, allowing the coaches to see if any of them can truly help
this season.
The underlying storyline at the position is that with the
aforementioned veterans departing after this season (pending Junior Josh
Palmer’s season and subsequent NFL early entry decision) there is going to be a
ton of question marks at the position in 2020; therefore, a handful of these
guys at the very least showing the
potential to be legit SEC players next
season would not just be big for themselves individually but would also
clarify things for the Tennessee coaching staff in terms of numbers for the
2020 recruiting class. Right now the
Vols have commitments from one pure WR in Jalin Hyatt and then two players in
Darion Williamson and Jimmy Calloway who could project at WR but also have some
positional flexibility depending on team need and (especially for Williamson)
how their respective bodies change over the next few years. As noted above, Arik Gilbert is either target
1A or 1B at the position along with fellow 5-star Rakim Jarrett. Jarrett is ostensibly an LSU commitment but
the Vols were in great shape even before his teammate Mordecai McDaniel
commitment to Tennessee last week and then Hill – a former St. Johns College HS
player himself – enrolled at Tennessee.
The Vols also continue to recruit Alabama commitment Thaiu Jones-Bell,
but the necessity for yet another WR
signee will be illuminated over the course of the season and will depend on the
performance of these players as well as Palmer’s NFL decision.
OL/DL
The storylines from this angle are virtually the same for
both the Offensive and Defensive Lines, the positions with the most question
marks going into the season and therefore the positions that will ultimately
determine the ceiling and the floor for this team. While the OL has more experience than the DL,
both have tons of youth projected to play major roles while the rotations
aren’t set at either position as well.
Ideally the Volunteer DL is dominant against both GSU and Chattanooga,
getting all 11 scholarship players tons of work to prepare for the rest of the
season, and more than holds its own against a BYU OL that is experienced and
talented and many will see as a competitive advantage for the Cougars going
into the game.
It seems certain that at this point the best case for the OL
in particular is:
GSU: Tennessee
plays up to 10 players and gets great pass protection and push in the run game
throughout
BYU: Tennessee has
used the GSU game to narrow down the rotation to closer to 7-8 with a starting
5 they preferably ride the entire game with success
Chattanooga:
Depending on the success in the BYU game, Tennessee either continues to ride
with the 5 from the BYU game and then also gets the remaining 5 tons more work
OR has tweaked the starting 5 from the BYU yet still works in the other 5 to
gain more experience
The entire strategy should be aimed at heading to
Gainesville with a cohesive starting 5 that’s seen success together at least in
the Chattanooga game along with a deep bench that’s gotten tons of snaps this
season already
ILB
Henry To’oto’to
Shannon Reid
JJ Peterson
Jeremy Banks
Aaron Beasley
Solon Page
To’oto’to is going to start and looks like a Freshman phenom
who’s going to be a star at Tennessee.
Getting any Freshman reps in games like these is always important, but
when you’re truly counting on one it’s imperative. Reid is the most experienced of this group,
but these games will give him a chance to showcase the newly added bulk and
simply that he’s taken a real step towards being a true contributor in the ILB
rotation. Given Daniel Bituli’s injury
situation – and that he’s a player Tennessee can ill afford to be absent during
SEC play – Reid could very well start the opener.
The remaining four have seen a collective zero ILB snaps
during their respective careers.
Peterson is a former 5-star recruit who spent last season trying to
catch up from showing up late and out of shape.
He’s battled back from injuries early in fall camp and absolutely could
use the reps to get truly acclimated to major college football and for the
coaches to see if he’s really got 5 (or even 4)-star potential. Banks moved (back) to LB last week – Vol fans
know the deal here: very athletic and ultra-aggressive, Banks practiced some a
LB late last season and impressed, but because of depth issues at RB was moved
back. Gray has seemingly passed him in
the pecking order so it makes sense to give him another shot here, especially
with the relatively light ILB depth.
Beasley is a promising looking freshman who many (including in this
space) had pegged as a future LB despite starting out at S. He’s already been moved and these games are a
great chance for him to get his feet wet.
Page has been in the program for a few years and realistically probably just
doesn’t have the size or speed to play at this level. But getting kids like this some run,
especially in blowouts, can never hurt.
OLB
Kivon Bennett
Quarvaris Crouch
Roman Harrison
Bennett needs to show that his slimmed down frame has
brought with it new explosiveness – these games are a chance for him to earn
real snaps along with Deandre Johnson opposite Darrell Taylor and try to hold
off Crouch and Harrison, two freshmen who are likely to provide at least
rotational snaps at the position as they both bring a level of speed and
athleticism missing on the roster.
Florida’s OL held up reasonably well against Miami’s pass rush this past
Saturday night, but they are still inexperienced and a relative weakness for
the Gators and QB Felipe Franks is abysmal when under pressure. Therefore, figuring out how to maximize the
pass rush while minimizing the number of blitzes will be key for Tennessee In
that game, which is why it is essential that the Vols staff uses these two
games to get their young pass-rushers ready.
The news over the weekend about Bryce Thompson, and the
uncertainty that brings to Tennessee’s secondary while his situation is sorted
out, makes this particular section all the more meaningful. We’ll operate under the assumption that
Thompson misses at least the GSU game, in which case it’s likely that Freshman
Warren Burrell will start alongside Sophomore Alontae Taylor at Cornerback
while Junior Shawn Shamburger, a relatively little-used but talented player,
continues to project as the starting Nickelback. It would also mean that all of the other
players above, from the returning players getting one of their first respective
starts like Shamburger and Flowers; returning players who have played very
little such as George, Labruzza, and Davis; and Burrell’s fellow Freshmen
Fields, Means, and Solomon, will all move up a slot in the rotation against GSU
and Chattanooga. The starters will need
to show that they’re capable of being high level SEC players, while the less
experienced returners and the freshmen sans Burrell will have an opportunity to
show that they can help this season and then be meaningful contributors and
possibly starters down the road in their careers. A guy like Means,
who moved over from WR this fall and has shown promise to go with his physical
gifts, or a guy like Solomon who could be used on Kick Returns (especially in
Thompson’s absence, and especially in low-risk situations), have unique opportunities
to show they belong.
Ultimately the best thing that can come from these games is
for Tennessee to come out of them with tons of confidence, newly experienced
players, and a clean injury sheet. The
latter is arguably the most important but is also the thing most out of anyone’s
control. So the staff must focus on the
first two and maximize the opportunities so that they give the team the best
chance to hit its ceiling.
When the Butch Jones era took a decisive turn from still possible to highly improbable via a 41-0 beat down from Georgia, we wrote on its failure to make lasting memories. The Vols missed opportunities to score a “we’re back!” win on the way to being nationally competitive, then saw the most famous first half of a season since at least 1992 turn into the most infamous second half of a season in my lifetime. As a result, though Butch Jones’ teams beat five ranked foes (and five more than Derek Dooley’s), even their most memorable victories still carry a “Yeah, but…” quality. In this way, some of my most enjoyable memories from those five years, at least for now, are lesser-known wins: Josh Dobbs’ coming out party at South Carolina in 2014, or bowl thrashings of Iowa and Northwestern that rightfully ushered in off-season optimism.
As we wrote two years ago, you can make a memory in any season. But you need that season to be ultimately successful for those memories to last well.
This happened in Jeremy Pruitt’s first season. The Vols beat #11 Kentucky by 17 points, and scored one of the five biggest Vegas upsets of my lifetime at #21 Auburn. But they didn’t become the dominant memory of 2018 because the Vols failed to earn bowl eligibility, much the same as what happened to Butch Jones’ win over #11 South Carolina in 2013. Finishing 5-7 overall carried more weight than those two wins.
The good news: eight days before kickoff, the bar seems to be holding at realistic goals for a successful year two. And since we really haven’t had what the majority would consider a successful year in this decade, any lasting memories this team makes will have a chance to resonate for a long time.
In its final year, what would you consider the biggest wins of this decade? And how would they compare to the biggest wins of the previous two? Your mileage may vary, but here are my picks:
90’s
00’s
10’s
1
98 Florida State
01 Florida
16 Florida
2
98 Florida
04 Florida
16 Georgia
3
95 Alabama
04 Georgia
15 Georgia
4
98 Arkansas
07 Kentucky
13 South Carolina
5
91 Notre Dame
05 LSU
15 Northwestern
6
97 Auburn
03 Alabama
14 South Carolina
7
96 Alabama
02 Arkansas
16 Virginia Tech
8
90 Florida
03 Miami
14 Iowa
9
92 Florida
06 Georgia
18 Auburn
10
95 Ohio State
07 Georgia
18 Kentucky
Fun fact: eight of those ten from the 1990’s came against top ten foes. Even in the 00’s, there’s a stacked honorable mention category (06 Cal, 03 Florida); it would’ve been tough for anything Lane Kiffin did in 2009 to make this list even before he left.
But in this decade, you can get famous in a hurry. For individual drama, I’m not sure the 2019 Vols can do anything to top 2016 Florida and Georgia; I could live a long time and not see anything like either of those games. But for what a win can mean to a season and the narrative of the program? Make a memory this year, and follow through with a successful season?
The 2019 Vols may not be in the championship conversation. But they’ll have their chances to be remembered around here for a long time, and to be the first team in a long time to have the memories they make truly last well. That’s the legacy before Jennings, Callaway, Taylor, Bituli, and Warrior, guys who’ve been here through all of the above. And it’s the opportunity before the younger guys on this team: take a real, meaningful step this year and not only be remembered well, but position yourself to make even bigger memories as you go.
Our annual picks contest through Fun Office Pools is back! If you played before, you should’ve received an email inviting you to play again. If you’re new with us, you can play for free and join our pool here!
As always, we pick 20 games per week, straight up, using confidence points: you put 20 points on the pick you’re most confident in, 1 point on the pick you’re least confident in, etc.
The pool is now open, and includes Week 0 games, so get your picks in before this Saturday. Here’s the opening slate:
That’s what my court-appointed therapist made me say out loud in her office. A bunch. I guess my debts finally caught up to me after I spent all that money on Bristol, non-refundable hotel/airfare to Tampa, and the Vols at 18-1 to win the title three years ago, in addition to my losings last year. Thought I’d double down on the Vols at 16-1 to win the title in basketball back in March. Turns out I was not the first person to start a sentence with, “But your honor, the referees…” in a Knox County courtroom.
So it was either jail, or counseling and a payment plan. I started to ask if they had the SEC Network in jail, but my wife intervened and now I get to talk about my feelings twice a month.
It’s not been all bad. My life has more structure now. That’s another word my therapist makes me say a lot. I started playing basketball again; they think it’s for my health, which is fine. If it’s also for the off chance I run into Ryan Cline at the YMCA, well that’s fine too.
But look, seven wins…I mean, that’d be progress, right? Not losing to Will Muschamp or (Fulmerized) Vanderbilt for the fourth straight year would be progress. Seven wins is what Vegas thinks, and I think at this point it’s clear they’re smarter than me. And if we do win seven and then get the bowl – probably a nice trip to Nashville or Memphis, right? – then 8-5 would be better than any of the other non-Fulmers did in their second year. Heck, it’d be the third-best year in the last twelve!
But ESPN’s FPI has us at 7.6 wins. I’m not smart enough to understand all the advanced math and computers and whatnot behind that number. But I am smart enough to round up. And if by God ESPN has us at eight wins, how can we not think we’re going to win at least that? They’ve hated us longer than anybody, so much so that now they just don’t talk about us at all, which, I’ll be honest, does hurt my feelings a little. No true Tennessee fan can let ESPN believe the Vols are going to win more games than we do.
So, eight wins. Eight wins is a good year. Eight might even get us to Jacksonville or Tampa for the holidays. I’ve still got all my Tampa maps in the glove compartment! Win the bowl, and now we’re at 9-4, which would mean ol’ Jeremy did as well in only year two as anyone who’s tried to replace the battle captain, including Butch Jones with all that (Fulmerized) talent. And year two is supposed to be the magic year, right?
Well, if that’s the case, then we gotta win nine. 8-4 would be fine, but it ain’t magical. You want magic, you want the year two bump, that’s gotta be 9-3. That would be the best regular season since 2007, and if we win that bowl game it’d be the first time we didn’t lose four games the whole year since 2004! Heck, that’d probably be Orlando; we haven’t been there since the kid from Elizabethton outran the ghost of Charles Woodson. I haven’t even had the opportunity to get thrown out of Disneyworld since then!
Look, nine wins ain’t really that hard, right? Georgia State, Chattanooga, UAB, that’s three. Clearly, Kentucky can only beat us if Derek Dooley or Butch Jones is the head coach, that’s four. Dooley is at Missouri now, and sure, they beat us last year after Guarantano got knocked out in the first quarter. Then their head coach talked (Fulmerized) about Jeremy. When they asked Odom about it later, he said, “We were able to visit in person soon after that.” I bet. That’s five. Besides, they play us after they play Georgia and Florida back-to-back. So does South Carolina, as it turns out, so that’s six.
Mississippi State? Name one player on their team. That’s seven. We also play BYU, which is fine, though I’m unsure why we can’t schedule a good Baptist school. That’s eight. And then Vanderbilt. Look, I’ve been doing this a long time. The joke used to be we don’t even mention Vanderbilt in this thing because it’s such an automatic win. So let’s go back to that and see if it works. That’s nine.
So 9-3, with wins over Georgia State, BYU, Chattanooga, Mississippi State, South Carolina, UAB, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. That means our only losses would be to Florida, Georgia, and Alabamokay, nevermind.
Ten wins. Ten wins is a good year.
Look, we can’t play any worse against Florida, let’s start there. Do you know how hard it is to have your first ten drives end in something other than a punt or a touchdown? Both my preacher and my therapist have warned me against using the devil as a scapegoat so often, but I mean, come on. If the greatest trick he ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist, the second greatest trick is pretty much every Tennessee-Florida game the last five years. Don’t think he didn’t try to get Jauan running down that sideline in 2016. I’m really glad that dude is still on our team.
And Georgia? Hey man, you could build our entire off-season argument around being down just 12 points to those guys in the fourth quarter last year, and that was before we called Jim Chaney home. In Knoxville, off the bye week? Who cares if Georgia is coming off the bye week too! We could beat them!
That’s 11 wins! And Bama just got punched in the mouth by Clemson, and everyone is telling me how their next head coach is gonna be our current head coach? Riddle me this: couldn’t Jeremy beat Bama so bad he didn’t want to be their coach anymore?
When the Vols finally kick off in a couple of weeks, all eyes will be drawn to the shiny objects. We’ll scan the field in search of Wanya Morris, Darnell Wright, Henry To’oTo’o, and Quavaris Crouch, and we’ll hope to see them doing well. The new blood is always the first place we look when searching for hope.
But hope is found not only in new faces or in lag measures like win/loss records. It’s also found in lead measures, those details that lead to the final results you’re after, and you don’t have to wait until the end to analyze those.
We here at GRT are as interested in the new guys as everyone else, but we’ll also be looking closely at certain details, those specific lead measures that will likely foretell final success or failure long before it happens.
Here’s a partial list of the lead measures we’ll be watching when the team kicks off this fall. Will covered some of this in series earlier this summer, but I wanted to gather them all here for the late arrivals and for the purpose of adding to the conversation.
Lead measure No. 1: More third-and-short conversions
Last year Tennessee ran the ball 21 times on 3rd-&-1-to-3. They gained just 20 yards. Those 0.95 yards per carry on third-and-short weren’t just last in the country: Liberty finished 129th, and averaged 1.52 yards per carry. The Vols were the only team in America to average less than a yard-and-a-half per carry on third-and-short, and the Vols averaged less than a yard period.
Ugh.
For my money, this is the thing I’m most interested to see this fall. The early returns will serve as the best prognosis for the offensive line.
The fact that the fate of the 2019 Volunteers is primarily in the big paws of the big men up front on offense is one of college football’s worst-kept secrets. They have additional goals, no doubt — keeping Jarrett Guarantano in one piece and on the field, giving him time to throw, keeping tackles for loss to a minimum, and providing the running backs with sufficient time and space to improve their overall yards per carry regardless of down — but productivity on third-and-short is the canary in the coal mine, and we like our canaries alive, thank you very much.
What to watch for: To be average in this category, the Vols should get somewhere around 4.5 yards on third down with 1-3 yards to go. To be one of the best 25 teams in this category, we’d want to see them get around 5.5 yards.
Lead measure No. 2: More yards per carry regardless of down
The allocation of credit for an offense’s productivity running the ball is an age-old question. The guy carrying the ball gets all of the glory, of course, but he’d get nowhere without his blockers. How much credit to give the big guys, though, is up for debate. I’m inclined to give them a bunch.
So, when a running back struggles, it makes sense to lay much of the blame on the offensive line as well.
Tennessee last season averaged only 3.7 yards per carry, ranking 108th in the nation. If that number improves this fall, it should indicate that the offensive line has indeed improved and the canary lives another day.
What to watch for: Tennessee could work its way into mediocrity by reaching somewhere around 4.5 yards per carry. Over 5 should get them into the Top 25.
The result: just 15 turnovers in each of the last two seasons, 97th nationally in 2017 and 101st in 2018 (stats via SportSource Analytics). That total joins anemic defenses from 2011 (18 turnovers), 2012 (17), and a what-could-have-been unit from 2015 (19 turnovers) in Tennessee failing to break 20 turnovers five times in the last eight years.
Note that this is “turnovers gained,” not “turnover margin.” The Vols were pretty good at protecting the ball when they had it last season, ranking 30th nationally in turnovers lost. They just weren’t very good at taking it away from the other team.
What to watch for: You’d like to see the Vols get at least around 20 turnovers, so maybe 1.6 or so per game to stay on pace. That’s just to get to the median, though. If you’re shooting for the best 25, you want to see somewhere around 24, or an average of 2 per game.
As Will points out in the above article, one of the leading causes of turnovers is sacks, because a sack is a two-pronged problem for an offense. First, they’re often a surprise to the quarterback, who’s not protecting the ball but getting ready to throw it, so he’s more likely to fumble it when hit. Second, even if the quarterback does manage to throw it with an animal bearing down on him, the pressure of a near-sack greatly increases the odds of an interception.
And that brings us to . . .
Lead measure No. 4: More sacks
Bad news: Tennessee had only 25 sacks all of last season, good for only 67th in the nation.
More bad news: 9 of those came from Kyle Phillips, Alexis Johnson, Emmitt Gooden, and Darrin Kirkland, Jr., none of whom will take the field this fall.
Good news: returning outside linebacker Darrell Taylor contributed 8 of them.
Bad news: 7 of Taylor’s sacks came in only two games.
Good news: Those two games were against Georgia and Kentucky, two of the season’s toughest opponents/most important games.
More good news: Everybody knows consistency is the theme of the season for Taylor, and a little additional focus should go a long way for such a talented dude. Derek Barnett had 13 in 2016 with only four goose eggs. He had 1 sack in 6 games, 2 in 2, and 3 in 1. That’s your target, Mr. Taylor.
More bad news: Every opponent knows all of this about Taylor as well, so he’s going to get extra attention from the pass-blockers. This, of course, will create opportunities for Taylor’s teammates.
What to watch for: Tennessee’s ability to generate more sacks this season is one of the main games-within-the-games to watch this fall. They averaged 2.08 sacks per game last season, and we’d like to see an improvement to 2.75 per game this fall. The question marks along the all-new defensive line will make this especially interesting.
Opponents converted 41 of 45 red zone opportunities against the Vols last year, 91.1%, and only two of those four stops came in meaningful situations. That scoring percentage ranked 120th nationally last fall. Opponents scored touchdowns 30 times in those 45 trips; a 66.7% red zone touchdown percentage ranked 90th nationally. (stats via SportSource Analytics)
My first inclination upon seeing this is to simply say that it’s correlated with a defense that was bad everywhere, but that’s really not the case. Tennessee was 49th in total defense, 52nd in rushing defense, and 60th in passing yards allowed. That’s not good, of course, but it doesn’t explain 90th and 120th in red zone touchdowns allowed and red zone scoring allowed.
So what’s the answer here?
I have no idea.
I am intrigued by something I read suggesting that football gets less speedy and more twitchy as the field shrinks and that therefore not knowing what to do matters more because it puts you at an instinctual disadvantage. But I’m not really sold on that idea, either. My humble advice: Do better. 🙂
What to watch for: The target for how often an opponent scores when in the red zone is about 82% for just good and about 76% for really good. Either of those would show improvement.
Bonus measure: More Guarantano, less medical tent
Jarrett Guarantano is better than you think he is. The team needs to protect him better and provide him more time and space to operate so that he can stay on the field instead of the medical tent while the trainers put Humpty back together again.
The odd thing is, the offense wasn’t nearly as terrible at allowing sacks as you might think. Opponents managed 1.92 sacks per game against the Vols, which puts Tennessee at 47th in the nation. Again, a galaxy far, far away from home, but not as bad as it seemed.
I think the real problem is that not all sacks are equal and that each one Guarantano suffered felt like a catastrophe and made you legitimately concerned for his long-term well-being. That, and the fact that 39% of his throws last season were made under pressure.
I’m not sure what stat to watch to monitor this. As far as I know, no one tracks hits on the quarterback that send him to the sideline, but having Guarantano remain on the field for every meaningful offensive snap is a good day.
By week’s end, both OLB BJ
Ojulari and TE Eric Shaw will have
announced their commitments to their respective universities of choice. Both have been to Tennessee’s campus multiple
times, both are rated s 4-stars by 247 Sports (Ojulari at #184 overall – and
also a 4-star on Rivals, Shaw at #301 overall), and both have nice offer
lists. They’re both very good prospects
who will play their college football in the SEC, the best conference in college
football bar none.
Here’s where they differ: Tennessee has gone all-in on Ojulari,
as have LSU, Auburn, Florida and others, whereas in the end Shaw wasn’t a take
for at least the Vols if not also instate Auburn. So today Shaw is going to
pick South Carolina, a program that Tennessee hasn’t beaten since 2015 and one
that is a roadblock for Tennessee in between where it is and where it wants to
be: back at the top of the SEC East and the entire conference. In contrast, the Vols are in a dogfight right
down to the end for Ojulari, who if he doesn’t pick Tennessee will choose
either LSU or Auburn, two programs who’ve been winning at a high level for a
decade-plus. As the rankings difference
and more importantly level of schools willing to take them suggest, Ojulari is
considered to be an “elite adjacent” prospect – he’s not a take for instate UGA
right now – while Shaw is considered
to be a solid player whose ceiling and floor are both lower. Ojulari is a physical freak who’s not only
added weight to his 6-3, 225 pound frame but also added new dimensions to his
pass-rushing skill-set this spring and summer to where he’s no longer strictly
a speed rusher. He won DL MVP at the
Rivals 3 Stripe Camp in Atlanta, showed out at The Opening in Atlanta, and
then most impressively was named to the “Dream Team” at the Opening Finals
against many of the best players in the country. The Vols are looking for at least one bigtime
pass-rushing OLB and would love to pair Ojulari with Reggie Grimes from the Midstate and/or West Coast product Sav’ell Smalls to give them one of the
best position groups in the country.
Ojulari would also combine with QB Harrison
Bailey give the Vols two Marietta HS studs in the class of 2020 to go with
WR Ramel Keyton from last year’s
class, giving Tennessee yet another tie to their teammate and 5-star stud WR/TE Arik Gilbert. That all remains to be seen of course
pending Ojulari’s choice on Friday.
One could make the case that rather than try and go head to
head with the Georgias and Alabamas and LSUs and Auburns for top-end recruits –
where the Vols are going to lose more than they win at least for now – they
should take the slow and steady approach to program building. That is, recruit against the likes of South
Carolina, Missouri, Mississippi State, etc. – programs in the middle of the SEC
to whom Tennessee is looking up at the moment.
As we’ve
discussed, that’s very much not the approach that Jeremy Pruitt is taking
in the least. In fact, as illustrated
very starkly by these two recruitments, Pruitt is looking to just skip over the
programs that he (and Vol fans) feel have no business being slotted above
Tennessee and zoom straight back to competing against the aforementioned
programs at the top of the SEC. Whether
that is ultimately successful or not is to be determined, but they’ve already
got more than a handful of no-doubt bluechippers in this class and
realistically are squarely in the mix for, frankly, a whole lot more after
landing a Top 10 class of 2019. If
Pruitt is in fact successful with his strategy he’ll at the very least raise
the floor for the program, as Tennessee will quickly have way more talent than
the middle of the pack programs, enabling the Vols to go back to beating those
teams regularly strictly on talent alone.
At the same time, Pruitt will have Tennessee at least approximating the talent of the elite SEC programs, narrowing
the gap such that outcoaching and getting a break here and there will enable
Tennessee to actually beat them instead of just coming close as it has for the
better part of the last ten years.
In the 90’s, Tennessee had five Freshman All-Americans: Aaron Hayden and Raymond Austin in 1991, Jamal Lewis in 1997, and Albert Haynesworth and Leonard Scott in 1999. All five made the first team. (Research via Tennessee’s 2019 media guide)
In the next decade, that number jumped to 18, including seven first-teamers: Michael Munoz in 2000, Kelley Washington in 2001, James Wilhoit in 2003, Roshaun Fellows in 2004, Josh McNeil in 2006, Eric Berry in 2007, and Aaron Douglas in 2009.
With one year to go, the Vols have placed 14 players on Freshman All-American teams in this decade, including nine first-teamers: James Stone in 2010, A.J. Johnson and Marcus Jackson in 2011, Jashon Robertson and Derek Barnett in 2014, Chance Hall in 2015, Trey Smith in 2017, and Bryce Thompson and Joe Doyle last season.
Freshmen are playing faster everywhere these days. But at Tennessee, on its fourth new coach since 2008, the new guys get more opportunities…especially in a coach’s second year.
Using the starting lineups from the media guide, here’s every true freshman starter I found in the post-Fulmer era:
2018
J. Carvin
A. Taylor
B. Thompson
2017
T. Smith
J. Palmer
2016
2015
J. Jennings
C. Hall
D. Kirkland
2014
J. Hurd
J. Malone
E. Wolf
J. Robertson
C. Thomas
D. Barnett
2013
M. North
J. Smith
C. Sutton
2012
L. McNeil
2011
M. Jackson
AJ Johnson
C. Maggitt
B. Randolph
2010
T. Bray
J. Stone
2009
A. Douglas
J. Jackson
Freshmen carry the heaviest weight not in year one, but year two: a coach’s first full recruiting class, a chance to get your guys in the mix. In 2011 all four of those starters earned Freshman All-American honors. In 2014 Butch Jones went all-in with six true freshmen starters, plus Todd Kelly Jr. who made the SEC All-Freshman team off the bench. In both cases, those guys would become significant pieces in what we hoped would be arrival seasons in 2012 and 2015-16; you’ll note the absence of true freshmen starters in 2012 (LaDarrell McNeil started after Brian Randolph tore his ACL against Florida) and in 2016 (Nigel Warrior made the SEC All-Freshman team off the bench).
We’ve been penciling in Wanya Morris and Darnell Wright as starters at offensive tackle this fall; Marcus Tatum might have something to say about some of that, but the Vols did start two freshmen on the line in 2014. Coleman Thomas was baptized by fire at Oklahoma, but the Vols still put together a potent offense as the year went along.
From there the sense for the 2019 Vols was that they didn’t have to have freshmen lead right away elsewhere, but if options emerged so be it. Early in fall camp, two of the most frequent names aren’t really that surprising: Eric Gray in the backfield, and Henry To’o To’o at linebacker. I’m not sure Gray will unseat Ty Chandler; the Vols are going to give plenty of opportunity to multiple backs anyway. But To’o To’o is Tennessee’s highest-rated signee behind the offensive tackles, and there is more opportunity to be a “starter” at linebacker than running back.
The mythical year two is usually thought of as one for big leaps. At Tennessee under Derek Dooley and Butch Jones, it was a chance to play a bunch of freshman and generate initial excitement. Dooley’s year two was derailed by injuries to Justin Hunter and Tyler Bray, but only after that excitement broke through against Cincinnati. Butch’s year two built on a close loss at Georgia before the Vols gave away the Florida game; sophomore Josh Dobbs won momentum back by season’s end.
For Jeremy Pruitt, no one is talking about this year two being a leap to championship contention. But if he can showcase his freshmen alongside the returning talent, that sense of excitement can show up on fall Saturdays. And considering the depths from which we’re climbing, there might be enough excitement for not just the future but the present.
With a roster that has been drastically improved since Coach
Jeremy Pruitt took over but still has a ways to go in order for Tennessee to be
a true SEC contender, there realistically isn’t one position that can
reasonably be considered in strong shape top to bottom. There are certainly more
blue chip players on the roster
than there have been in a long time, and there is also hope that Pruitt and his
very well-regarded staff can get step-up performances
from a number of former
3-star recruits who were signed by the former regime. But no matter how you cut it, there are needs
at every position. However, there are a
finite number of scholarships in a given cycle, and staffs inevitably have to
make concessions from one position to another as they put each class
together.
That said, projected numbers at each position in a class can fluctuate depending on a number of factors, most importantly of course the number and talent of the current and future players on the roster. Specifically at Cornerback for Tennessee, three developments in camp so far have the potential to influence what Tennessee seeks to do at the position in the class of 2020:
After two weeks of camp and one major scrimmage, one name has been prominently and consistently mentioned among the breakout players – freshman and veterans alike – so far this fall: CB Warren Burrell. Burrell was an even-at-the-time obviously underrated (by recruiting sites) prospects who chose the Vols over Florida, among others, and was an early enrollee who showed playmaking ability in the spring. At over 6’0 and with long arms and a nose for the ball to go with the kind of attitude needed to be successful at the position, Burrell has taken his strong spring performance and run with it. After receiving rare praise from Pruitt, Burrell by all accounts played most of Sunday night’s scrimmage with the starters at CB opposite Bryce Thompson and is at worst going to be the third CB in the rotation when the Vols start the season in less than three weeks, meaning the three top CBs will all be either sophomores or freshman. Both of the other class of 2019 prospects signed to be CBs – Tyus Fields and Kenny Solomon – have also had their moments early in camp, showing the tenacity and speed/length they are known for, respectively
Tennessee’s only projected contributor in the secondary who is a Senior, Baylen Buchanan, has been injured since the spring and has not yet practiced. At this point, though details of his injury are very scarce, it wouldn’t be surprising for him to take a medical redshirt year in 2019 and come back for the 2020 season. If that happens, it would give the Vols another experienced CB in 2020 that they didn’t anticipate having
Jerrod Means, a late take in the class of 2019 as a WR, was moved to CB before the start of camp and has already shown flashes of real potential. At 6’2 and around 215 pounds, Means has the length that is almost a prerequisite for a Jeremy Pruitt CB prospect. He’s also a kid who ran a 4.4 40 and produced a 39-inch vertical at a Tennessee camp last summer, so his athletic ability is borderline elite for that size. Everyone knows that Pruitt loves DBs who played both on both sides of the ball as that likely means they have ball skills that translate well to the secondary, and Means also played Safety in high school. While it remains to be seen whether he sticks at CB and then becomes a good one, he’s got everything you’re looking for at the position and his move means the Vols added 4 true CBs in the class of 2019
Tennessee already has two CB commitments in the 2020 class
in early enrollee Art Green – the nation’s #2 overall JUCO player – and Lovie
Jenkins. Jenkins is almost a carbon copy
of Burrell in terms of size and length and chose the Vols over a heavy pursuit from Notre Dame as well
as offers from Miami, Missouri, and many others. Do the Vols need another CB in this
class? Maybe not, though it’s unlikely
they’d turn down any of their top targets still on the board – namely Joel
Williams (announcing in September, leaning towards Bama) and Kendal Dennis (Vols
in Top 2 with Auburn, UF and Miami trying hard, could announce in August) – if they wanted in now. But as things change during the season and the
December signing day approaches, the Tennessee staff could certainly decide
that the 3rd CB spot is needed more elsewhere, and given the
developments above that wouldn’t be surprising in the least. It’s a good problem for them to have to work through
and a sign of the ever-improving roster as well as Pruitt and his staff’s
evaluation acumen.
Wherever you might’ve placed Emmit Gooden on your “least afford to lose” list, his presence there at all speaks to the problem of his out-for-the-season absence. Two things we’ve been saying all off-season:
Defensive line is a bigger question mark than offensive line, because at least some of those guys on the OL played meaningful snaps and you’re bringing in five-star freshmen.
Other than those offensive tackles, there’s nowhere any newcomers have to step in and lead right away.
Well, now the first part is even more true, and the second part is probably a lie.
Darnell Wright and Wanya Morris are Tennessee’s two highest-rated signees. You have to go further down the list to get to Savion Williams, Darel Middleton, and Elijah Simmons. If you’re looking for good news, that’s two JUCOs and an 18-year old that looks like this:
(Like me and my almost-two-year-old son, that dude’s head circumference is in the 100th percentile. “He’s so good he doesn’t need a neck!” – Idiot Optimist by next week, probably.)
So, potential remains on the defensive line for Tennessee. Now you just need it to show up immediately.
The only good thing about early fall camp injuries is the amount of time you have to get over them before facing live fire. More newcomers (hopefully including Aubrey Solomon) will get more reps, along with important returning pieces like Matthew Butler, and we’ll re-calibrate as best we’re able.
But it’s okay to say, 3+ weeks from kickoff, that this sucks. Especially because it keeps happening to one of those defensive guys on the least afford to lose list.
Butch Jones is long gone, so we can say this without it sounding like an unnecessary defense of him: this is the fourth time in five years the Vols have lost one of their best defensive players for the year before the calendar hits October:
2015: Curt Maggitt, Week 2
2016: Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Week 3
2017: Darrin Kirkland Jr., fall camp
2019: Emmit Gooden, fall camp
You can argue whatever percentage you like between bad luck and the revolving door to the strength and conditioning department, but still…man. These posts are getting old.
