Category Archives: Football

Predicting the Tennessee-Indiana game using SPM comps

The TaxSlayer Bowl pitting the Tennessee Volunteers against the Indiana Hoosiers opened with Indiana as a slight 1.5-point favorite. It has since flipped so that now the Vols are a 1.5-point favorite. Regardless, Vegas is expecting a close game. Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine has to say about this year’s Gator Bowl and whether I think it’s right or wrong.

Vols-Hoosiers

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee’s points:

  • Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 24.3
  • Indiana scoring defense for the season: 24.5

The Indiana scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • BYU 24.4
  • South Carolina 26.1

Early in the season, Tennessee scored 26 points against BYU, but got 41 against the Gamecocks as the Vols began to find their stride. Taken together, that 133% of what those teams usually give up, so the SPM estimates 32.6 points for the Vols against Indiana.

Indiana’s points:

  • Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 21.7
  • Indiana scoring offense for the season: 32.6

The Indiana scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):

  • Georgia State 32.4
  • Florida 33

Florida scored 34 points against the Vols, and Georgia State scored 38. That’s slightly more than what those teams scored over the course of the season, and the SPM translates that into 35.9 points for Indiana against Tennessee.

Estimated score: Tennessee 32.6, Indiana 35.9

From the perspective of Indiana

Indiana’s points:

  • Indiana scoring offense for the season: 32.6
  • Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 21.7

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Indiana opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Michigan State 22.7
  • Northwestern 23.6

Indiana scored 31 points against Michigan State and 34 against Northwestern, 141% of what those teams usually give up. That makes the estimated points for Indiana against the Vols 30.6.

Tennessee’s points:

  • Indiana scoring defense for the season: 24.5
  • Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 24.3

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Indiana opponent(s):

  • Maryland 25.3
  • Purdue 25.8

Maryland got 28 against Indiana, and Purdue got 41, meaning Indiana’s defense allowed the two closest comps 135% of what they usually score. Estimated points for Tennessee against Indiana: 32.8.

Estimated score: Indiana 30.6, Tennessee 32.8

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 32.7, Indiana 33.2

SPM Final estimated spread: Indiana -.5

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 1

Those numbers are the SPM’s way of warning you not to put too much confidence in the outcome of this game one way or the other.

Eyeball adjustments

Here’s the thing. I think the estimates of Tennessee’s points are too low and the estimates of Indiana’s points are too high. From the Vols’ perspective, the comps include a BYU game that was really early in a long season of continued improvement. Just using South Carolina as the comp would make the estimated points for the Vols from this perspective 38.

And I feel like Indiana’s estimated points are too high because the comps are Georgia State and Florida, two games very early in the season before the defense began to improve. Against teams not named Alabama, the Tennessee defense allowed an average of only 13.5 points against teams that together averaged 23.6 points. If you use that data, the estimated points for Indiana from the Vols’ perspective would be only 19.

All of that would make the Vols’ perspective spit out Tennessee 38, Indiana 19. I don’t think the machine is quite as wrong as that, but the difference is enough to make me think this isn’t the pick ’em everybody and everything thinks it is.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Tennessee 35, Indiana 28. The SPM is imitating Vegas’ shrug on this one, but I like the Vols by a touchdown.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, Indiana opened as a 1.5-point favorite, and it has since shifted to the Vols being a 1.5-point favorite. With an over/under of around 49, that translates to something like Tennessee 25, Indiana 24.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 52.3% chance of winning.

I haven’t seen SP+ bowl picks yet, but when I see them I’ll add the Tennessee-Indiana prediction here.

Bottom line

The SPM gives only half a point to Indiana in this game, and it’s about as far from being confident against the spread as it can get. I think the eyes see something the machines can’t, and so I like the Vols by a touchdown.

  • Vegas (current): Tennessee, -1.5 (~Tennessee 25, Indiana 24)
  • SP+: (TBD)
  • SPM: Tennessee 32.7, Indiana 33.2 (Vols don’t cover)
  • Me: Tennessee 35, Indiana 28 (Vols cover)

What do y’all think?

Looking at Potential DBs to Fill the Class

With the loss of JUCO Art Green and the potential flip of Mordecai McDaniel to Florida (which would NOT be mutual), what was once a class of three DBs for Tennessee is down to two and possibly only one (stud S/CB Keshawn Lawrence).  And despite having a solid group of young players on the roster, with the amount of Nickel and even Dime defense that Head Coach Jeremy Pruitt and DC Derrick Ansley like to play, there is always going to be a need for talented bodies there.   Could the Vols survive a cycle with only Lawrence as a DB signee?  Probably.  Especially since there are a handful of other current commitments who could also project to the secondary.  Jimmy Calloway, who’s listed as a WR and is absolutely electric with the ball in his hands, was being recruited by Oklahoma as a DB (notably, Florida is also trying to flip him, and he is still undecided as to whether he will sign next week or not).  Tamarion McDonald, part of the Whitehaven Trio, has played all over the field throughout his high school career and is for sure a candidate to play the Nickel position, where his combination of coverage skills and hitting ability would be a perfect fit should he not grow into a LB.  That said, it does seem like the Vols are at least giving themselves options should they want and/or need to add at least one more DB.  Tennessee will have four DBs on campus this weekend, with a fifth prospect still lingering.

Emmanuel Appiah is a JUCO early enrollee originally from New Jersey.  He’s got offers from Auburn and Tennessee and officially visited the Tigers for the Iron Bowl weekend.  He had a big sophomore season with eight INTs, and at 6’0 with good length he’s got the requisite size for a Pruitt DB.  Notably, he is good friends with Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano.  Likely a guy who can step in and help at least rotationally right away, it remains unclear where he is on both Auburn’s and Tennessee’s board.

Decamerion Richardson is an intriguing option at CB from Bossier City, LA.  He’s a LONG 6’2 and a track star – he ran a 10.75 100M and 21.63 200M along with a high jump of 6’0, good for 2nd, 3rd and 2nd respectively in the state of LA – yet another prospect with the classic Pruitt DB makeup .  A bit of a late bloomer, once Richardson’s senior tape got out  – he ended up receiving All District honors as both 1st Team RB and DB – he quickly received offers from South Carolina, Tennessee, and Mississippi State (where he OV’d this past weekend).  He liked his visit to Starkville quite a bit, so the Vols could have a fight on their hands should they decide to truly engage. 

Doneiko Slaughter is an Arizona State commitment from Roswell, GA outside of Atlanta.  More of a S/Nickel prospect than a Cornerback, Slaughter’s calling card is his combo of good if not elite speed (10.88 100M and a 4.65 40) and real physicality.  He just took an OV to Miami, so clearly his commitment is soft, so if the Vols push they likely can land him.  A “baller” according to the esteemed Chad Simmons of Rivals, Slaughter plays with an edge that you know Pruitt loves.

Donovan Kaufman is, like Richardson, a Coach David YAC Johnson special from Louisiana.  A Vanderbilt commitment, Kaufman is very likely to end up somewhere much better than West End.  Speaking of ballers, Kaufman did it all for his state championship Archbishop Rummel team this season, making 112 tackles, scoring six touchdowns, forcing six fumbles, and registering eight sacks and four INTs in 13 games.  He carried the ball from the Wildcat position and returned kicks as well.  Those stats, and the way he jumps out on film, make the Honey Badger comparisons all too easy for the New Orleans native.  Kaufman just received an offer from new FSU coach Mike Norvell, who recruited Louisiana very well at Memphis and had tried with Kaufman while with the Tigers, and is now receiving significant interest from LSU (who is, as everyone knows, very short on numbers).   Kaufman stands out from the rest of this list because he is on the shorter end at 5’9, but he’s a playmaker and a winner, two things Pruitt covets at all positions. 

Kendall Dennis is a familiar name to many Vol fans as he visited Knoxville twice over the summer.  The 4-star Florida native has been thought to be an Auburn lean for quite a while, but a late Clemson offer threw a monkey wrench into his recruitment.  However, Clemson has since decided to move on a different DB for their final spot at the position, leaving Dennis in a bit of limbo.  Oklahoma, where he took an OV recently, is still an option, and Nebraska is in the same boat. USF, who’s new coach is former Clemson assistant Jeff Scott, could also get involved.  While Tennessee isn’t currently scheduled to receive an OV this weekend, the Vols were included in his Top 5 this past week and could be a player if things break a certain way for both parties.  That will be one to watch.

Whether the Vols have to fill one or two spots in the defensive backfield in this class remains to be seen, but Pruitt and staff have done a tremendous job setting themselves up with a plethora of talented prospects to choose from whatever decision they make.  This weekend will go a long way for both Tennessee and the respective prospects in determining which direction the Vols go, but it seems hard for them to go wrong.

Nine Days Out – Recruiting Musings

Hard to overstate how big of a commitment DL Omari Thomas is for Tennessee.  Thomas is a true blue chip prospect, with the kind of size and talent that requires no explanation.  With the Vols major need for DL in this class, particularly as one looks to 2021 and beyond, Thomas is a cornerstone player for the future of the Vol defense.  And as much as landing the Whitehaven Trio was big in its own right, Thomas represents another bigtime recruiting win against elite programs like Alabama and such, while also further cementing Tennessee as the dominant recruiting power in Memphis under Coach Jeremy Pruitt. 

Thomas’s high school teammate RB Jabari Small is set to commit tomorrow, and all signs point to him continuing Tennessee’s sweep of Memphis.  In this writer’s opinion Small profiles as a very capable SEC back, with better-than-you-might-think size (5’11, 190) and a combination of good if not great speed and outstanding quickness, agility, and short-area moves.  Very much in the mold of Eric Gray, Small is a great complement to Tennessee’s other RB commitment Tee Hodge, playing the classic Lightning role to Hodge’s Thunder.  Smalls was, along with Thomas, a finalist for Tennessee’s Mr. Football, and finished his senior season with 29 TDs and just under 2,000 rushing+receiving yards.  His final game was a 4 TD performance in the Tennessee high school playoffs against Ensworth and their P5-littered defense. 

I don’t think it’s coincidental that the Tennessee smoke coming out of Morven Joseph’s OV to Florida on Sunday came within hours of Vol commitment Jimari Butler telling Rivals that he was essentially decommitting from Tennessee.  The guess here is that the Tennessee staff they said something to the effect of “If you’re taking other visits we can’t hold your spot.” Butler then went to Nebraska this past weekend and was then his spot was taken.  Butler is certainly a good looking prospect with outstanding upside – we’ve said as much here and here – but it’s hard to compare him to Joseph and not come away feeling like the Vols would be well off with that swap.  Joseph’s clearly got a more refined game, and while he’s not go Butler’s physical size he’s far from small at 6’3 220.  And there’s a reason he got springtime offers from the likes of Alabama and Auburn and that his other finalist is Florida – three teams known for dominant pass rushers.  With word that Pruitt and his staff are still pushing to flip BJ Ojulari back from LSU, things at Edge Rusher could end up finishing better than anyone could have ever imagined and the Vols will be SET there for a few years.

Tennessee looks like it’s in really good shape for TCU QB/ATH commitment Jimmy Holiday from Madison, MS, especially after wowing him by bringing the entire offensive staff on his inhome visit.  Ranked by 247 as the 1,389th (!!!) prospect in the class and the 33rd player in Mississippi, the forecast here is that Holiday will skyrocket up the rankings after this coming AL/MS All-Star Game week.  Holiday is simply electric with the ball in his hands and his film shows some modicum of passing ability.  A lot this week could depend on which position(s) he practices at, but expect to hear rave reviews from national writers coming out of Hattiesburg.

Tennessee’s staff could not have set this weekend up more perfectly.  Days before the Early Signing Period begins, the Vols will have a TON of top talent on campus.  And not only that, the recruits will be present for what should be a wild and raucous atmosphere in Thompson Boiling Arena as Rick Barnes’s squad dominates the Memphis Tigers.  Below are the recruits set to officially visit:

TE Darnell Washington

WR Ramon Henderson*

WR Corey Wren

RB Zaquandre White (JUCO)

ILB Desmond Tisdol

ILB Vai Kaho

OLB Jaqwondis Burns*

DB Emmanuel Appiah (JUCO)

DB Donovan Kaufman

DB Decamerion Richardson

DB Doneiko Slaughter

* tentative

We made the case for oversigning last week, simply based on the sheer amount of top talent that Tennessee could very, very realistically land were numbers not an issue.  With now eight spots remaining pending any further decommitments or scholarship gymnastics, Tennessee’s board is basically a decision tree of prospects.  For example:

Are you holding a spot for Darnell Washington?  If Yes, you now have seven spots.  If no, or if you’re told he’s not coming, you’re back to eight

Do you land Tyler Baron?  Do you also land Octavius Oxendine?  If Yes to both, do you take Reginald Perry? 

Are you holding a spot in February for Jay Hardy?  What if he signs with Auburn next week?  Either way, what does that do for Perry?

Do you take Vai Kaho, or Desmond Tisdol, or both ILBs?

If you land Morven Joseph at Edge, do you take another?  Is Khari Coleman that guy, or does it have to be Ojulari?

Do you think you need another DB?  Is Mordecai McDaniel solid anyway, or is a flip to Florida in the works?  If either one is Yes, what’s the order of your list?

Assuming you land Small tomorrow, do can you possibly take a 3rd RB (White, or even Len’neth Whitehead)?

If you land Holiday, is he your 2nd QB or your 4th WR to go with Jalin Hyatt, Jimmy Calloway and Darion Williamson?  If he’s a QB, does that open 1-2 spots for Henderson and Wren?  If there’s only one more, who do you prioritize?

And finally, what do you do if Tate Ratledge gives you an indication that he might flip?  What about if you have to wait to February?  Who loses their spot from the list above?

For the most part these are all good problems to have.  The Vols are deep in the mix with upwards of 20 prospects, each of whom would upgrade the overall talent level on Tennessee’s roster at their respective positions, and some of them are no-brainer, blue chip guys for whom the Vols are recruiting against some of the top programs in the country.  Pruitt and his staff are showing no signs of slowing down to set themselves up in the best position possible with the deepest and most talented board they can get.  The next, and maybe most important step, will be to read the board correctly and manage things such that they land as many of the players THEY WANT as they can. 

GRT Bowl Pick ‘Em

Our 2019-20 Bowl Pick ‘Em is now open at Fun Office Pools. If you played with us last year, or in this year’s regular season picks contest, you should’ve received an email this morning with an invitation to join, or you can sign up directly at Fun Office Pools. As always, it’s free to play.

And as always, we use confidence points: make your picks straight up in each of the 40 bowl games, including the playoffs, then assign a point value to each contest: 40 points for the outcome you’re most confident in, one point for the outcome you’re least confident in, etc.

Congrats to PAVol for winning our season-long picks contest, going 219-71 straight up and winning by two confidence points over 290 games!

The bowl fun starts December 20, but the pool is open now. Our old friends at Banner Society rank the Gator Bowl seventh in their watchability ratings in today’s Read Option newsletter.

The Jim Chaney Effect: Vols get better, Bulldogs get worse

Last January, we made a list of reasons that Jeremy Pruitt hiring Jim Chaney away from Georgia was a very good thing. Chaney’s offenses were incredibly and consistently productive, he was a good fit with Pruitt and Knoxville, he had decades of experience, and he seemed to be the perfect combination of both excellence and stability.

One of the biggest reasons we were juiced about the hire, though, was the notion that it not only made Tennessee better, it made Georgia worse.

Well, is it true? Here is a comparison of Tennessee’s offensive stats from the end of the 2018 regular season to the end of the 2019 regular season:

Helping yourself

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Let’s start with the concession that not everything improved. The quarterbacks threw more interceptions (11 this year to 5 last year) and the offense got worse in the red zone this season. And despite any improvement in other areas, you can’t really say that the offense is humming.

But there was improvement in many offensive categories. Total Offense, Scoring Offense, and Rushing Offense all improved. The offense was better on first downs and more explosive in the passing game, and it was much better on third down this year than last. The biggest improvement came in keeping guys from getting tackled behind their own line of scrimmage.

If that doesn’t really move the needle for you, consider this: The Jim Chaney Effect doesn’t really show up until his second season behind the wheel.

As Will wrote in our 2019 Vols magazine, Chaney’s offense at Georgia in 2016 ranked only 74th in SP+, averaging 5.44 yards per play and 24.5 points per game. For the sake of comparison, his 2019 offense at Tennessee averaged 4.38 yards per play and 24.3 points per game. Worse on yards, about the same on points.

His 2017 offense at Georgia, though, climbed all the way to 7th in SP+ (6.7 yards per play and 35.4 points per game), and then went to 3rd in SP+ in 2018 with 7.05 yards per play and 37.9 points per game.

Here’s a tweet to prove it:

Bottom line, Tennessee’s offense has already improved in Jim Chaney’s first year, and it’s not at all unreasonable for Vols fans to expect to see a huge improvement in 2020.

Hurting your rival

What about Georgia? Your eyeballs are insisting that the Bulldogs missed Chaney something terrible this year. The numbers concur:

The 2019 Bulldogs’ offense was fine protecting the quarterback and the line of scrimmage and even held steady in the red zone. But it was worse at everything else. The Bulldogs went from 18th to 60th in Total Offense, from 14th to 51st in Scoring Offense, and from 16th to 37th in Rushing Offense even though they still had Deandre Swift and a stable of studs. The Passing Offense wasn’t needed in 2018, and the numbers got no better this year when it was.

Yes, the Georgia Bulldogs’ offense got dramatically worse this year, and it’s because Jim Chaney left for Tennessee.

Long Road, Right Destination: Vols in the Gator Bowl

(furiously deletes 700 words on the Music City Bowl)

Actually, let me say this: Nashville’s bowl runs a good show. I went in 2010 and really enjoyed it (until the end, of course). I think it’s good for the state to have the Music City Bowl do well. And there are seasons in rebuild mode when it really isn’t a bad destination for the Vols, like 2010.

That just wasn’t the case when the Gator Bowl was a realistic possibility, which it has been since Tennessee beat South Carolina, or a rightful one, which it has been since Tennessee finished a 6-1 run to end the regular season.

And now, after much deliberation and plenty of false starts:

https://twitter.com/Vol_Football/status/1203789190325919744

Here’s what I wrote when it looked like Nashville:

The Music City Bowl is not as prestigious as the Gator Bowl, full stop. It may be more desirable to individual fans depending on where you live, it may pay a little more, and it may create a nice recruiting setup in the mid-state. And a bowl can change its own fate – see the Peach Bowl, once a sign of a disappointing season at UT, now a New Year’s Six bowl – and perhaps Nashville will earn that reputation. None of that changes the prestige of January vs December 30, or the fact that Nashville’s bowl is 21 years old and Jacksonville’s has been played since the end of World War II.

It looked like the Vols were just going to be on the wrong side of bad luck. There’s no argument for Kentucky as a more deserving or desirable option than Tennessee in a vacuum. But in 2019, circumstances appeared to be working for the Cats and against the Vols. The Gator Bowl took an ACC team three years in a row and was contractually obligated, whatever that’s worth, to take a Big Ten team. Because of the final College Football Playoff rankings, Indiana was the best available option. In any other year of the last six, Indiana and Kentucky play in Nashville. But with the Music City obligated to an ACC team on the other half of their deal with Jacksonville, and Louisville being a good fit there…we didn’t have to like Nashville, but it at least made sense.

The Vols also just missed the Outback Bowl by 10-3 Wisconsin staying at #8 in the final College Football Playoff poll and Penn State staying ahead of an Auburn team that beat Oregon and Alabama. If the New Year’s Six used the AP poll instead, #9 Auburn would be in the Cotton Bowl, Alabama in the Citrus Bowl, and the Vols in the Outback Bowl. Instead, we have three Big Ten teams in the New Year’s Six and the SEC’s teams going down a peg.

But the Vols didn’t fall any further than that, earning the January bid to Jacksonville at the 11th hour and 58th minute. And here’s something we can say with greater certainty now: even if the Vols beat Georgia State and BYU to open the year, they’re probably still playing Indiana in the Gator Bowl. Tennessee would be ranked, but still in the Group of Six and still less deserving than Auburn. You’d always prefer to be 9-3 than 7-5, but perhaps the Vols learned a few things along the way this season that will prove to be more valuable than a pair of early escapes would’ve revealed.

Also: now we’re in-between two scenarios. The Outback Bowl was desirable not just for its own prestige, but a shot at a ranked opponent like Minnesota. Tennessee is hot, and did beat three bowl-bound teams plus 6-6 Missouri in this run. But the Vols only faced three ranked teams this season. Via the media guide, that hasn’t happened to Tennessee since 2003 (#17 Florida, #8 Georgia, #6 Miami). Tennessee would’ve been an underdog to the Golden Gophers by around eight points in SP+. It’s a bigger ask on a question this team hasn’t answered yet.

On the other hand, play Louisville in the Music City, and you’re likely a big favorite (around -10 in SP+). Given what our friends from Kentucky just did to them, you have little to gain here.

Instead, it’s Indiana. The name doesn’t do much traditionally in football, but the 8-4 Hoosiers would be a four-point favorite in SP+. It’s an also receiving votes bowl in the Coaches’ Poll; a great performance from either team could earn them a ranked finish.

It’s not a huge opportunity to level up like the Outback Bowl. But Indiana would likely be Tennessee’s best win this season. It’s the right bowl, and the right opportunity.

And it’s January, in primetime, the only game happening on the evening of January 2. This Tennessee team, led by its seniors, has given the program hope when it seemed furthest away. They can be forever tied to a turnaround if the Vols to follow in the 2020’s continue down this path. The Gator Bowl can be a bridge. I’m thrilled to see if they can cross it.

See you in the new year.

Tennessee Football: Why Where We Are Feels Different

With apologies to Peaches & Herb, the theme to Tennessee’s 2019 football season could be sung to the tune of the duo’s “Reunited” song:

“Me-di-oc-re and it feels so gooooooood!”

Indeed, rarely has a season so far below UT’s lofty historical standards felt like such a step forward. The Vols are 7-5 and likely headed either to Jacksonville’s Gator Bowl or Nashville’s Music City Bowl, but the excitement buzzing around the fan base would make you think the Vols leapt to 9-3 in Jeremy Pruitt’s second full season.

Part of the reason, of course, is UT actually SHOULD BE 9-3, had it not been for a debacle of a season-opening loss to Georgia State that was arguably the worst in program history and another sleepwalking fest that ended with Alontae Taylor getting lost against BYU on a prayer pass, sending a game into overtime the Vols ultimately lost and fell to 0-2. (It’s a start that’s keeping a lot of us from jumping 100 percent on board, too…)

Part of the reason is the Vols rallying to win five consecutive games to end the season and six of their final seven, with the only setback being a referee-aided, competitive loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa.

Both of those are good enough reasons to be okay with a Season 2 Step Forward. But here’s the real reason we all should be cautiously optimistic:

The development is real.

Not since the strides in Lane Kiffin’s lone 2009 season looked so much more promising for the future than the growth the Vols have witnessed this year. Not only were there upperclassmen who’ve shown no signs of life blossom into difference-makers as the season matured, the freshman class has produced arguably more impact guys than any since Butch Jones’ 2014 class. That group of players was loaded, though it largely fell apart throughout his tenure, leading to guys leaving, getting injured or failing to develop.

Could those things happen under Pruitt? Sure. We’re not fortune tellers, after all. But the improvement of the upperclassmen this year is an indicator it won’t happen. He was a proven developer of players as a coordinator during successful stops at Alabama, Florida State and Georgia, and he has surrounded himself with expensive assistants who’ve had success at multiple stops, as well. Those who aren’t producing in the coaching ranks or in recruiting are getting demoted or heading elsewhere.

Pruitt seems determined to make this work, and athletic director Phil Fulmer is giving him the resources with which to work.

When you combine the development with the talent Pruitt has been able to compile, that could be a winning formula for the Vols to get “back,” even though it’s certainly premature to say they’re “back” right now. A stellar end to the 2020 recruiting class is necessary, and another step forward next year could go a long way in solidifying Tennessee’s return. All the Vols did, really, this year is re-emerge ahead of several mediocre-to-bad programs they’ve always been better than. So, while that was a necessary step, it does nothing to help you gain ground on the Alabamas, Georgias and Floridas of the world.

That comes later. For now, we have to look at the overall ’19 body of work and try to glean reasons for excitement. Here are a few:

  1. Nigel Warrior’s turnaround: Just how remarkable was the Tennessee senior safety’s season? He went from being a maligned player whose career was written off as late as this year’s Florida game to being named a Pro Football Focus Honorable Mention All-American. Pruitt is known for developing defensive backs, and that’s DC Derrick Ansley’s specialty, too. The light came on in a big way for Warrior, and as we saw positives from other safeties like true freshman Jaylen “Tank” McCullough and Theo Jackson, there’s plenty of reason for excitement moving forward. Toss in Shawn Shamburger going from the doghouse to the penthouse, and it’s obvious the Vols can generate some quality burn out of guys who looked like burned scholarships. Did you ever think a guy like, say, Kenneth George Jr. would blossom into a quality SEC cornerback who shut receivers down at times? Me neither. But he has. That’s coaching and development, folks.
  2. The Best Got Better: Warrior is just the poster child for improvement, but one thing to look at as another positive is how much Tennessee’s top-echelon players carried this year’s team. Does it suck they’ll be gone next year? Yes. But some of the Jones recruits who were big parts of bad teams got to be big parts of better teams this year, and they earned our adoration in the process. Jauan Jennings came back from injuries and even being off the team to become near-immortal, Daniel Bituli was a hard-hitting star all year, Marquez Callaway made big play after big play, Darrell Taylor was among the SEC’s sack leaders, and Trey Smith got a huge assist from UT’s medical staff to return from his blood clots issue and become one of the league’s top offensive linemen. You can say all these guys were recruits of the previous regime and try not to give the Pruitt staff credit for this, but this group went from being on a team full of problems to part of a solution. They got to go out winners.
  3. A Rejuvenated Rush: The numbers aren’t a ton different from a season ago, but the Vols went from 11th in the league with 25 sacks in 2018 to fourth with 30 sacks this year. In scoring defense, UT went from 12th (27.9) a season ago to seventh this year (21.7). But over the last half of the season, those numbers soared. Did the competition worsen? Yes, but Alabama’s competition was awful all year and the Tide don’t have any asterisks by their name, huh? If you can’t get excited about what Tennessee did to generate a pass rush this year, you don’t know football. It’s still not good enough, but it got much, much better. Besides Taylor, Pruitt seemed to dial up that Shamburger corner blitz at opportune times all season. Then, you’ve got guys like Kivon Bennett and Deandre Johnson, who blossomed into excellent situational players for UT. When you add elite freshmen like Quavaris Crouch and Roman Harrison and their potential to get after the quarterback, you’ve got reasons to be excited about the future. Beyond those guys, there appear to be quality players across the DL with the development of players such as Darel Middleton, Matthew Butler, Kurott Garland, John Mincey, and LaTrell Bumphus. If Greg Emerson and Elijah Simmons can develop, along with perhaps Kingston Harris, Tennessee could have the makings of a deep, versatile defensive line that can get after QBs from all angles.
  4. A Trench We Can All Dig: A year ago, I wanted to fire offensive line coach Will Friend. There. I said it. This year, the unit showed signs of life, improving in run blocking throughout the season despite lacking consistency. The group was pretty strong pass-blocking for the majority of the season, despite nearly getting Brian Maurer killed. Darnell Wright and Wanya Morris had growing pains, but they also showed flashes of the cornerstones they’re expected to be. Smith likely won’t return, but if he does, Tennessee could have one of the SEC’s top three lines next year. Brandon Kennedy getting a sixth year of eligibility would be massive, too. K’Rojhn Calbert was a stalwart at times this year, and the freshman duo of Chris Akporghene and Jackson Lampley have bright futures, too. UT has a bunch of potential road-grading maulers on the line, and this was a nice step-forward year. The group still has a ways to go.
  5. Help is on the Way: It’s easy to forget Tennessee’s best defensive lineman (Emmit Gooden) was lost for the year before the season started and Aubrey Solomon battled injuries all year but has another season of eligibility. There also are reports DeAngelo Gibbs (a Georgia transfer) was a terror to guard as a receiver this year playing against the scout team. With Jennings and Calloway gone, Gibbs should have a huge role as a redshirt junior. Speaking of redshirts, Brandon Johnson has another season after redshirting and delaying his senior year until next season when he can be a big factor. Could Pruitt be recruiting a bit better from a stars standpoint? Yeah, and I wish he’d do a little better instate. But you can’t fault the guy’s identification of quality players. Another Pruitt class will go a long way in getting “his” players in there, guys with attributes and skill sets he believes he can develop.
  6. So Many Potential Stars: How long has it been since Tennessee had a freshman linebacker as elite as Henry To’oto’o? Is he the best first-year ‘backer ever? Better than A.J. Johnson and Curt Maggitt? Better than Jerod Mayo? He may be. There’s no doubt he’ll be calling the defense next year, and he looks like a three-year player early on. Throw in Crouch and Harrison, and that’s a trio of difference-makers on the second level. Eric Gray showed everybody what he can do against Vanderbilt, and he has the type of speed and field vision you cannot teach. All he needs is an opportunity and an offensive line, and there are reasons to believe he’s going to have both. Wright and Morris are going to be special along the offensive front, even if both had freshman blunders. McCullough and Warren Burrell are going to be dynamic defensive backs. Maurer was going to be the future and the present at quarterback until he wasn’t, but there are certainly some moldable traits for the first-year signal-caller, and the future is bright, especially when the competition improves. There are others with plenty of potential, too.

When you look at Tennessee’s roster, there are still holes. But there are also bright spots of players who showed glimpses of potential. Are they role players, or can Pruitt and Co. build them into SEC players capable of helping Tennessee get back to the top of the SEC East? Only time will tell, but that’s the reason you should be excited about 7-5.

This is a mediocre team, but there are plenty of players on it who have the ability to be much better than that.

Why does the SPM like Georgia in the SEC Championship Game?

The LSU Tigers opened as a 7-point favorite over the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game this week, although several online sites had them as only a 3.5-point favorite. As of Friday morning, there seems to be a consensus of LSU -7. We posted earlier that the GRT Statsy Preview Machine likes Georgia to not only cover but win, but here’s the detail on how it arrived at that conclusion and whether I think it’s right.

If you’re new here and wondering what the SPM is and whether it’s reliable, check out this post.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers

From the perspective of Georgia

Georgia’s points:

  • Georgia scoring offense for the season: 32.9
  • LSU scoring defense for the season: 22.1

The LSU scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Georgia opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Tennessee 21.7
  • Texas A&M 22.7

Georgia scored only 19 points against Texas A&M but 43 against Tennessee. Based on that, the SPM estimates 30.9 points for Georgia against LSU.

LSU’s points:

  • Georgia scoring defense for the season: 10.4
  • LSU scoring offense for the season: 48.7

The LSU scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Georgia opponent(s):

  • Notre Dame 37.1
  • Auburn 34

Auburn scored only 14 points against Georgia, and Notre Dame got only 17. That’s under half of what those teams usually get, and based on that, the SPM estimates only 21.4 points for LSU against Georgia.

Estimated score: Georgia 30.9, LSU 21.4

From the perspective of LSU

LSU’s points:

  • LSU scoring offense for the season: 48.7
  • Georgia scoring defense for the season: 10.4

The Georgia scoring defense is most similar to the following prior LSU opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Florida 14.4
  • Auburn 18.6

LSU scored 23 points against Auburn and 42 against Florida, nearly triple against the Gators, but only slightly more than what the Tigers usually allow. Based on that, the SPM estimates 20.5 points for LSU against Georgia.

Georgia’s points:

  • LSU scoring defense for the season: 22.1
  • Georgia scoring offense for the season: 32.9

The Georgia scoring offense is most similar to the following prior LSU opponent(s):

  • Florida 33
  • Auburn 34

Auburn scored 20 against LSU, and Florida got 28. Based on that, the SPM estimates 23.7 points for Georgia against LSU.

Estimated score: LSU 20.5, Georgia 23.7

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

SPM Final estimated score: Georgia 27.3, LSU 21

SPM Final estimated spread: Georgia -6.3

Difference between the SPM and the current spread: 13.3

That difference between the SPM and the current spread makes this game one of the SPM’s favorites this week.

Eyeball adjustments

I’m uncomfortable with some of the volatility in the comps. For example, from Georgia’s perspective, LSU’s scoring defense is nearly identical to both Tennessee’s and Texas A&M’s, but Georgia got 43 against Tennessee and only 19 against A&M. I feel like A&M has pretty much been the same team all year, but the Vols have improved since they played Georgia, and Georgia’s offense seems to have regressed a bit. Basically, I think the estimate for Georgia’s points from Georgia’s perspective of 30.9 is a bit high. I’m thinking more like 24.

The same can be said of LSU’s points from LSU’s perspective. Georgia’s defense is not only much better than the two closest comps of Florida and Auburn, LSU’s results against those comps vary greatly, getting only slightly more against Auburn than what the Tigers usually give up but nearly triple against the Gators of what they usually give up. If Florida is a different team now than it was when those results were posted, then I think LSU’s estimated points of 20.5 might be a bit high as well. On the other hand, LSU’s offense has the feel of a juggernaut, so despite all of that, I’m inclined think that maybe it has that one pegged.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Georgia 24, LSU 21. I don’t like Georgia as much as the SPM does, but I still like them to not only cover but win outright.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, LSU opened as 7-point favorites from most sources, and those that had it there stayed there while the other sites adjusted to get there. With an over/under of 55 or so, that translates to something like LSU 31, Georgia 24.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes LSU 29-26, and gives the Tigers a 56% chance of winning.

ESPN’s FPI gives LSU a 55.7% chance of winning.

Bottom line

The SPM likes Georgia to not only cover the -7 spread, it likes the Bulldogs to win outright, and the game is actually in its “favorites” category. After eyeball adjustments, I don’t like them quite as much, but I do also like them to not only cover but win.

  • Vegas: LSU -7 (~LSU 31, Georgia 24)
  • SP+: LSU 29, Georgia 26 (doesn’t cover)
  • SPM: Georgia 27, LSU 21 (doesn’t cover)
  • Me: Georgia 24, LSU 21 (doesn’t cover)

What do y’all think?

SPM picks: Championship Week

The SPM was barely up over .500 last week, which is honestly pretty good for Rivalry Week, a notoriously difficult week to predict. Last week, the SPM went 33-31(51.56%) overall, 11-8 (57.89%) over the confidence threshold, and 10-4 (71.43%) on its favorites. (If you’re wondering whether those favorites numbers are different from those in this post, it’s because the numbers above compare to SP+ and therefore use the same spreads that SP+ uses, while the favorites that were posted last week were posted early and therefore used Vegas opening spreads. The SPM is trying to catch SP+, so when possible, we compare to the same spreads.)

For the season, the SPM is now 359-344 (51.07%) overall, 147-114 (56.32%) over the confidence threshold, and 90-52 (63.38%) for the favorites.

SP+ had a difficult time last week, going only 26-38 (41%) overall. One bad week doesn’t undo a terrific season, though, as it’s still sitting pretty at 54% over the entire season.

SPM favorite picks this week

There’s only a handful of games this week, and the SPM only likes two of them: (these are based on the same spreads SP+ is using):

What do y’all think?

The Portal, the 25-Limit, and the Case for “Oversigning”

All season long, Coach Jeremy Pruitt lamented the fact that the Vols were well below the 85-scholarship limit.  Between preseason injuries, inseason departures, and redshirts, at times the Vols were operating with below even 70 scholarship players.  What he didn’t say was that the NCAA’s relatively recent restriction on enrolling more than 25 players in a given class makes it incredibly difficult to catch back up to that number even over time, putting programs who started well below 85 scholarships at an very large competitive disadvantage.  With the news earlier this week that two redshirt senior-to-be OL Ryan Johnson and Marcus Tatum are entering the transfer portal, the scholarship situation facing Tennessee came into even more focus.  It wasn’t that long ago that guys like them would make a leap in their final season, especially on the OL – how many Fulmer teams were built around OL who had stuck around, paid their dues, and were given a chance in their final season?  As it’s become so easy for players to transfer, especially for young men looking who have graduated and are simply for more playing time in their final year of eligibility like Johnson and Tatum, it’s a reasonable question to ask: How can anyone actually catch up?

In our look at Edge Rushers earlier in the week, we noted that the Vols have around 7 spots remaining in the class, but caveated that statement with the following question: “Will the Vols try and greyshirt someone like Darrion Williamson (ACL injury) or Will Albright to fit another player into the class?  Does Melvin McBride’s medical retirement give the Vols room to enroll 26 in this class?  Both are questions that the answers to will determine how many more spots there actually are.”  It should also be noted that Tennessee commitments WR Jimmy Calloway and OLB Jimari Butler are taking visits elsewhere, and Calloway particularly looks like a potential flight risk, so even the current number of 18 commitments (and therefore 7 spots) is a little tentative.

Looking at those specific situations above a little further, one can see how they each make sense:

*Williamson suffered an ACL injury in the fall.  Before even getting to the fact that he’s a relatively raw prospect to begin with, the injury itself makes it incredibly unlikely that he can meaningfully contribute in 2020 if he can physically get on the field at all.  Why start his eligibility clock now?  Instead, let him enroll in January 2021 and have his five years to play four start with the 2021 season.  That’s a win-win for both parties

*Albright is a Longsnapper, and as Longsnappers go he’s a great prospect as evidenced by his spot on the All-American Bowl roster.  Forgetting any argument about whether a program should use one of its precious 25 scholarships at that position (we’re neither for nor against, per se), the Vols will lose a steady senior in Riley Lovingood after the season and need someone to replace him immediately.  Is that something a freshman can do?  Again, not being knowledgeable enough about the intricacies of the position it’s tough to say, but what we do know is that Tennessee’s current roster lists two other LS’s – RS Senior-to be Jake Yelich (rated as a five-star LS by Chris Sailer Kicking/Rubio Long Snapping coming out of high school) and RS Sophomore-to be Matthew Salansky.  So Tennessee does have players who’ve been in the program that could potentially step in at least for 2020.  That would allow Albright to greyshirt and like Williamson start his 5-to-play-4 in 2021

*When it comes to McBride’s 2019 initial counter, there is just so much gray area here.  Further to the point about counters from 2019, however, Tennessee was by all accounts all set to sign longtime commitment Anthony Harris.  He would have had to have had a spot, and one would think that the fact that he did not enroll would mean that spot is now available.  So what Tennessee can roll over from 2019 is incredibly opaque

Again, all of this is speculation.  It’s likely no one outside of Pruitt and his compliance team knows the exact situation.  What we do know is that the existing 18 commitments collectively represent a large step forward in terms of depth and talent across the board for the program.  Even the most ardent “NegaVol” would be hard-pressed to find a commitment that doesn’t look like a really good prospect or, more importantly, a position group that doesn’t clearly look like it’s being improved.  There is a reason that despite having only those 18 commitments the class is ranked #20 nationally, with a clear path to being at worst in the Top 15 and even a “If things break perfectly” path to inside the Top 10.

What’s left for the staff to accomplish is filling as many needs as possible while leaving themselves wiggle room to go the Best Player Available route if necessary/possible.  How they plan on doing that beyond simply building as big of a board of top-shelf realistic options (which they have done and continue to do during the contact period) remains to be seen.  TE Darnell Washington has a spot, of that we are sure.  Do they take both ILBs Vai Kaho and Desmond Tisdol?  What would that, and the potential addition of RB Jabari Small, do for Len’neth Whitehead?  How many of DL Tyler Baron, Octavius Oxendine, Omari Thomas, Reginald Perry, and Nazir Stackhouse would they take if they could take ALL of them? What about the aforementioned Edge Rushers Morven Joseph and Khari Coleman, a group they’ve added former Ole Miss commitment and December 13th official visitor Jaqwondis Burns to all the while according to Volquest still pursuing former commitment BJ Ojulari?  How many Offensive Playmakers can they take, with QB/WR Jimmy Holiday along with Small, WR Ramon Henderson, and RB Zaquandre White – the latter three December 13th official visitors – firmly on the board and even WRs Rakim Jarrett and Thaiu Jones-Bell at least on the periphery?  Heck, even JUCO DB Emmanuel Appiah is scheduled to OV December 13th, too, and he’s a very promising prospect who also happens to be an EE.  Again, there are still needs across the roster, so it wouldn’t be unreasonable for Pruitt and his staff to just rank their board and go from there, positions be damned. 

Ultimately what we’re advocating is for Pruitt to use any means necessary to sign *as many of the above prospects as possible*.  Greenshirts, Greyshirts, Redshirts, Blueshirts (h/t: Dr. Seuss). Backcounting, frontloading, anything in between.  Even, frankly, borrowing from 2021.  Because right now, despite the strong classes of 2018 and 2019 and the incredible development of the players from prior classes that Pruitt and his staff have done, the program simply needs better talent and more of it.  And with the transfer portal changing the game and no other recourse to catch up scholarship-wise, it would behoove Tennessee to take advantage of as many loopholes and avenues as possible to replenish the roster.  They’ve done the work to put themselves in position to land – in a vacuum – all of the players above.  Now they should do whatever it takes to sign as many of them as they can.