Category Archives: Football

Vols Class #9 Nationally…Yeah, it’s a Big Deal

As discussed last week, Tennessee’s 9th ranked recruiting class (per Rivals) was not only strong in its own right but also served to both widen the gap between the Vols and programs below them in the SEC East and also at worst maintain the status quo between them and Georgia and especially Florida.  That said, there is a narrative that serves to discount the meaningfulness of Tennessee’s ranking that misses a number of important points.  That story is that because Tennessee’s class is “only” 7th in the SEC (behind Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Texas A&M, Florida, and Auburn) that means the Vols are stuck in mediocrity within the SEC and even nationally, which is not only false but shortsighted.  To wit:

Point I: Before one can get to comparing Tennessee’s class to anyone else’s in the conference, it simply must be reiterated that Coach Jeremy Pruitt had a monumental task of roster building when he took the job in December 2017.  The talent level across the board was way down (as evidenced by Tennessee having ZERO draftees in the 2019 NFL draft) as were the overall numbers relative to the 85-man scholarship limit.  So simply following up last year’s #12 class  in 247 Sports’ enrolled rankings (which Rivals does not have, thus the change of recruiting service) with a Top 10 nationally ranked class is a huge deal.  Pruitt needs to keep stacking up these types of classes – filled with difference makers at multiple positions and very few if any reaches – in order to build Tennessee back into a true title contender.  And then of course continue to develop that talent like he has so far.  And this was a step no matter how many other SEC schools are also in the Top 10

Point II: Florida, Tennessee’s arch nemesis, also had a strong class.  Using the same Rivals rankings, the Gators’ 24-man class  finished 7th in the country with one 5-star and thirteen 4-stars and an average star ranking of 3.58, while Tennessee’s 23-man class finished 9th overall with zero 5-stars (pending QB Harrison Bailey’s deserved 5th) and thirteen 4-stars and an average star ranking of 3.52.  The classes are almost exactly equal to each other using these objective metrics, effectively meaning that the idea that Tennessee finished “behind” Florida is while technically true in reality meaningless.  Further, when comparing Pruitt’s two whole classes to Gators Coach Dan Mullen’s, Tennessee has two more players on its roster from the 2019 class than does Florida, who lost its top-rated 2019 signee and three 4-stars before the 2019 season began.  One could very easily make the case that between the two classes Tennessee has more talent on its 2020 roster than do the Gators

Two-year average ranking (2019 enrolled, 2020 Early Signing Day)

Tennessee: #10.5 average rank (#12 + #9)

2019:22 signed, 2 out – Melvin McBride and Jerrod Means, 2 transfers in (Aubrey Solomon and Deangelo Gibss, with one and two more seasons of eligibility remaining, respectively); 22 net for 2020 season

Florida: #12 average rank (#17+#7)

2019: 24 signed, 3 never enrolled, 2 transferred out before the season (including its one 5-star as well as three 4-stars), 2 transfers in (Jon Greenard, now out of eligibility, and Brenton Cox, 2 years to play); 20 net for the 2020 season

Point III: Tennessee doesn’t play Texas A&M, Auburn, or LSU except for once every eight years unless it meets one of them in the SEC Championship Game.  So being behind those schools in terms of recruiting ranking is effectively akin to being behind Clemson or Ohio State – if you’re seeing one those schools on the field it very likely means you’ve had an incredible season and your program has accumulated enough talent and developed that talent well enough that a single year’s recruiting ranking variance is fairly meaningless. 

Point IV: Following Point III, Tennessee’s top three competitors in the SEC East – Georgia, Florida, and to a much lesser extent South Carolina, actually DO play Auburn, LSU, and Texas A&M, respectively every season.  Therefore, those programs gobbling up talent is actually a good thing for Tennessee as it makes it more likely that they deal UT’s East rivals a loss. 

Point V: Tennessee’s class would have ranked #2 in the Big 10, #2 in the ACC, and #1 in both the Big 12 and Pac10.  Does that matter, when Tennessee isn’t in those conferences?  Well, the SEC got one team in the College Football Playoff (a step down from the two the conference has gotten in the recent past) and two teams in NY6 bowls.  Alabama, long the king of college football and the SEC, is not one of these three teams but is still playing in the highly acclaimed Citrus Bowl at 10-2 and Auburn at 9-3is in the Outback Bowl.   Point being,

Point VI: Further to Point V, compare Tennessee’s #9 class with that of its next four Power Five nonconference opponents and decide for yourself if that ranking will matter for the Vols:

2020 (probably too soon for the 2020 class to really matter): Oklahoma #12

2021 Pittsburgh #47

2022 Pittsburgh #47

2023 BYU #82

So while Tennessee could conceivably move up in the final rankings if it manages to close out with some of its targets – namely Auburn commitment DL Jay Hardy and Jumbo ATH Dee Beckwith – the 2020 class is already one that has added substantially more talent and depth to the program.  And regardless of who sits in the eight spots in front, that’s a meaningful win for the Vols program.

Kaizen: Continuous Improvement

Nothing is ever perfect, and despite a helluva day for Coach Jeremy Pruitt and the Vols on Wednesday there are certain things that you know a coach as maniacally focused on recruiting as he is will look to improve.  Along with perhaps upgrading the staff from a recruiting perspective, from this vantage point one thing Tennessee should look at is the amount of official visits used in the spring and summer.  With the advent of the Early Signing Period in the class of 2018, using official visits earlier and earlier in the cycle has become more commonplace.  And that makes sense – schools are looking to lock down their top targets early, some kids want to finish the recruiting process early, and in particular spring games and thematic weekends (cookouts, paint ball, pool parties, etc) during the summer are showcase weekends to host official visitors.  That said, when looking at who Tennessee has brought in for official visits during the spring and summer for the classes of 2019 and 2020 (Pruitt’s two opportunities) those OV weekends have been, objectively speaking, failures.  Take a look below:

Class of 2019

April 18th (Orange and White Game)

Wanya Morris (signed with Tennessee)

Khris Bogle (signed with Florida)

Bryce Beinhart (signed with Nebraska)

Jalen Curry (signed with Arizona)

April 27th

Anthony Bradford (signed with LSU)

June 1st

Warren Burrell (signed with Tennessee)

June 8th

Trezeman Marshall (signed with UGA)

Mike Morris (signed with Michigan)

So, for the class of 2019, Tennessee brought eight prospects in for OVs during the spring and summer and signed two of them, a 25% hit rate.  Not only that, but the Vols were deep in the recruitments for both Bogle and Marshall until the bitter end, but both took very late OVs to the schools they respectively signed with whereas Tennessee had used its OV over a half year before they each signed.

Class of 2020

April 12th (Orange & White Game)

Dominic Bailey (signed with Tennessee)

Deontae Craig (signed with Iowa)

EJ Williams (signed with Clemson)

Kitan Crawford (signed with Texas)

Justin Rogers (signed with Kentucky)

Cooper Mays (signed with Tennessee)

June 7th

Mordecai McDaniel (Committed to UT in August but flipped to UF)

Haynes King (signed with Texas A&M)

June 14th (Pool Party)

James Robinson (signed with Tennessee)

Xavier Hill (signed with LSU)

Darrion Henry (signed with OSU)

Ty Jordan (signed with Utah)

Kourt Williams (signed with OSU)

June 21st

Blayne Toll (signed with Arkansas)

Rakim Jarrett (signed with Maryland after flipping from LSU)

Caziah Holmes (signed with PSU)

Chris Morris (signed with Texas A&M)

Richie Leonard (signed with UF)

After batting 25% (2/8) in 2019 on spring/summer official visits, Tennessee did even worse in 2020 signing three of the eighteen official visitors for a 17% hit rate.  And one of those commitments (Bailey) was already committed when he took his OV to Tennessee, and another (Mays) was a very heavy lean when he took his OV.  That’s…not good.  Now, in both years Tennessee chose not to heavily pursue some of these prospects and two other caveats to this exercise are 1) sometimes a prospect says I want to take my OV now and you have no choices so you take your shot and hope for the best (e.g., EJ Williams), and 2) some of the above were likely always going to the schools they ended up with  (e.g., Darrion Henry).  But even considering all of that, this strategy objectively has not worked for Pruitt and Tennessee.

Therefore, this should be addressed starting with the class of 2021 cycle.  The Orange and White Game weekend is a fantastic weekend to have prospects see Knoxville, Tennessee’s campus, and Vol Nation in all its glory.  And themed weekends during the summer are also great ways to show players the program and the campus while also showing them a different side of Tennessee’s coaching staff.  All great stuff, and all opportunities to build out a bigtime class.  But doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is the definition of insanity, and when that thing is proven to not work it also is counterproductive.  What’s been proven to work for Tennessee is inseason OVs, where the Vol Walk and the Vol Navy and 102,45mf’in5 show kids what Tennessee football is all about.  And barring that, Tennessee has done well with OVs between the end of the season and the start of the ESP, when once again everything that is great about Tennessee’s program can be showcased.  So along with potentially a better recruiting staff (TBD), another year for Pruitt and his core staff to have built relationships and gotten 2021 kids on campus, and an upward trend for the program not seen since the end of the 2015 season (which proved to be a bit of a mirage), perhaps a change in official visit strategy will also help to sign what should be Pruitt’s best class in his tenure as the Head Coach at Tennessee.

The Decade: Our Favorites

On December 31, 2009, I was headed back from Atlanta after a loss to Virginia Tech in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. We couldn’t find a countdown on the radio in English, so my friend and I welcomed in the new decade in Spanish. The Hokies pulled away late to win 37-14, but there was plenty of optimism for Lane Kiffin in year two. Earlier in the day Bruce Pearl’s Vols won at Memphis. Things had been difficult in moving on from Fulmer, but we were hopeful order would be restored soon.

January 1, 2010 began with four basketball Vols getting arrested. Nine days later the Vols beat #1 Kansas without those players. Two days later, Kiffin left in the middle of the night. And the 2010’s were off and running.

It hasn’t been what any of us wanted ten years ago. The Gator Bowl, assigned to the 2019 season, will decide if the Vols finish above or below .500 for the decade. The basketball Vols made it back to number one and won another conference crown, but we’re still waiting for a second trip to the Elite Eight and our first to the Final Four. And everything changed for the Lady Vols, who won national titles in 2007 and 2008 but haven’t seen the Final Four since.

The craziness of those first dozen days set the tone for much of what would follow. But even in these turbulent years, there have been moments to celebrate. Here, in chronological order, are our favorite things from the last ten years:

The Elite Eight

I’ve been writing on the Vols for 14 years, and the 2009-10 basketball season is still my favorite story. The win over Kansas wasn’t just without four players, but saw just 14 minutes from J.P. Prince and 19 from Wayne Chism due to foul trouble. And the Vols won anyway, thanks to 9-of-18 from the arc including 4-of-6 from Renaldo Woolridge.

We’re all used to John Calipari at Kentucky and one-and-dones today, but in 2010 – Calipari’s first season in Lexington – that John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins group of UK players were rock stars. They came to Knoxville 27-1, and left 27-2.

And then to break through against two-seed Ohio State in the Sweet 16 after the crushing loss to the Buckeyes three years earlier, behind 22 points and 11 rebounds from Wayne Chism. The Vols let Evan Turner have his (31 points), but absolutely locked down the rest of Ohio State’s options. The 2010 Vols finished 28-9, were a six seed in the tournament, and five Tennessee teams since 2006 have finished with a higher rating in KenPom. But no one danced longer.

Tyler Bray vs Cincinnati

34-of-41 for 405 yards, four touchdowns, zero interceptions. Justin Hunter: 10 catches for 156. Da’Rick Rogers: 10 for 100. It all came crashing down to injury the next few weeks, but in this moment – a 45-23 win over Butch Jones and a Cincinnati team that finished the year ranked – other than the first half of the 2016 season, I’m not sure I ever walked out of Neyland Stadium more confident that we were “back” at any point this decade.

Cordarrelle Patterson

You forget how spectacular he was because we went 5-7 and spent most of the year talking about Derek Dooley, but remember this (and maybe mute your sound):

Two Weeks in February 2013

The Vols were 13-10 (5-6) coming to the end of Cuonzo Martin’s second season. And then, in four consecutive games:

  • Beat Kentucky by thirty (30) points
  • Beat LSU behind 34 points from Jordan McRae
  • Beat Texas A&M in four overtimes
  • Beat #8 Florida

I’m sure Cuonzo and many of us would call the run to the Sweet 16 from Dayton the peak of his tenure in Knoxville. But because so many people had jumped ship by that point, these end of these two weeks was the time you felt most confident in him. The Vols lost at Georgia, won two more to close out the regular season, lost in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals, and were again broken by the bubble. It’s hard to make lasting memories if your season doesn’t end in the NCAA Tournament, but these four games were a joy individually and felt like they could have been even more collectively.

Josh Dobbs Arrives at South Carolina

If you want the most rewatchable game of the decade – one not tied to any “yeah, but…” conversations like 2016 – it’s Tennessee at South Carolina in 2014.

Dobbs in this game: 23-of-40 for 301 yards passing, plus 24 carries for 166 yards rushing, five total touchdowns. Whatever you think of whatever happened with Butch Jones, the things we first wanted to believe about Dobbs on this night generally came true. An incredible individual game, enabling the Vols to once again get the last word on Steve Spurrier, and an initial step to one of the best Tennessee careers of the decade.

Josh Richardson

When the decade began, C.J. Watson was Tennessee’s lone NBA representative. Tobias Harris would join him in 2011 after a one-and-done campaign. From Cuonzo’s teams, no one would’ve picked Richardson to have the best NBA career. But I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a Tennessee player get better from one year to the next in a four-year career like this:

YearPPGMinutes3PT%FT%
20122.91623.764
20137.930.721.469.2
201410.330.43479.3
20151636.335.979.8

The Outback Bowl & 2016 Off-Season

Beating Northwestern 45-6 doesn’t doesn’t ring any bells around here despite the kind of decade we’ve had, though it’s still Tennessee’s most dominant win over a ranked team since 1990. And the Outback Bowl is still Tennessee’s most prestigious destination since playing in the Cotton following the 2004 season.

But what that win enabled for the next eight months sure was fun.

And despite what happened in the second half of 2016, that preseason hype was earned by the near misses of 2015. The Vols were preseason #7 using a magazine consensus. It’s been a long time, before and after, since we’ve been able to anticipate that kind of year.

One Half of That Kind of Year

All of them come with a tinge of disappointment for the way 2016 ended, but all three are still incredibly unique:

  • The Battle at Bristol, the all-time attendance record for college football
  • The only win over Florida since 2004 and the second-largest comeback in Neyland Stadium history
  • The Hail Mary, which to my knowledge still doubles as Tennessee’s only walk-off win on an offensive touchdown in regulation in school history

As we wrote a couple of times in the midst of this stretch, getting down 14-0 in the largest attended football game in human history was only the fourth-most-stressful thing to happen to Tennessee in the first five games.

You can argue Jauan Jennings’ catch is both the apex of that season and the decade in football, the Vols using up the last of their magic. But it joins, “Did you turn off The Miracle at South Bend?” and “Did you try to leave the stadium before Stoerner fumbled?” as one of the best “Where were you when it happened?” moments in my Tennessee lifetime.

Fulmer’s Return

Bad seasons come and go, but the most vulnerable Tennessee’s athletic department has been in my lifetime was in the aftermath of Schiano Sunday after John Currie was fired. It only lasted a few hours, but to have no idea who’s in charge or who would be in charge after a week of insanity at the end of a decade of the same…it was a nervous moment.

The answer was Fulmer, who to this day gives me comfort on a simple, human level: I know the guy in charge of the thing I love loves it even more than I do.

For whatever experience I’ve gained in my 38 years or things I’ve learned in writing about the Vols for 14 years, that simple truth stays around. You don’t have to have that dynamic to be successful. But there’s an undeniable confidence when you do have it. And at the end of the craziest week at the end of the worst football season in program history, I’m still glad Phillip Fulmer was holding the keys.

Basketball Back on the National Level

In the midst of all the football insanity, I think the most divisive Tennessee conversation of this decade was still Cuonzo Martin by a healthy margin. Even in defending him the way I and others did, there was a stubborn belief that Bruce Pearl – even if we believed he was never coming back here – represented Tennessee’s highest ceiling.

Tennessee lucked into Rick Barnes. But in a decade when both chemistry and timing worked so hard and so often against us, the Vols got that one absolutely right.

The November 2017 win over Purdue was quickly forgotten in the midst of Schiano Sunday, but it started everything we’re enjoying now: 26-9 with an SEC title in 2018, 31-6 with a month at number one and a Sweet 16 in 2019, and the number four recruiting class in the nation for next season. Along the way (and thanks to UCLA), Tennessee and Phillip Fulmer upped Barnes’ salary to put the Vols in elite program territory in men’s basketball.

Barnes is 6-4 against Kentucky, and sent three Vols to the NBA Draft last season. Grant Williams is probably Tennessee’s athlete of the decade. Along the way there have been memorable individual plays…

…and far more wins the whole team shares. From Purdue to the first win at Rupp since 2006 in 2018, then taking down #1 Gonzaga – the best team Tennessee has beaten in the KenPom era – embarrassing Kentucky in Knoxville, and getting another 2-1 season advantage on the Cats in the SEC Tournament last year. If what Pearl’s teams did was the best positive story of Tennessee’s last decade, what Barnes and his teams are doing now is the best positive story of this one.

You Just Never Know

All the years, all the games, and sometimes you still get a loss to Georgia State in the opener and the first time the Vols covered the spread six weeks in a row since 1990 in the same season.

Football ends the decade no closer to the mountaintop than when it began: a 7-5 regular season heading to a bowl game, with positive momentum in recruiting and optimism for the future. We still don’t know.

But this year taught us we also never know, not really. And that’s one of the great things about sports. This decade saw a six seed make it one possession from the Final Four, our most talented football teams in 2012 and 2015-16 underachieve, a group of three-stars spend a month ranked number one, and a little bit of everything from this football season.

More than anything, this decade reinforces an old truth: we come back, year after year, not for the winning – though that’s preferable! – but for the experience itself.

So here’s to another ten years of great stories, great characters, and great memories. We’re never boring. And we’re always here.

Thanks, as always, for reading.

Go Vols.

Gotta Say it was a Good Day: Initial Post ESD Thoughts

We’ll have more on the various position groups in Tennessee’s 2020 class in the coming days, but below are some high level thoughts:

Early Signing Day has de factor become THE signing day, and Coach Jeremy Pruitt and staff made sure they locked up all of their commitments (sans OL Kyree Miller, who they apparently encouraged to wait…hint hint) and also signed all five of their top uncommitted targets coming into the day.  It was a no-doubt banner day for the Vols and even if they sign no more prospects the 2020 roster is now deeper and more talented across the board than it was in 2019.

At the same time, while one could argue whether or not the Vols closed any of the gap between itself and the Alabama/Georgia/LSU triumvirate at the top of the league – and the best argument in the affirmative is that those programs simply can’t get that much more talented while Tennessee has a lot of room to grow – what’s very clear is that Tennessee widened the gap between itself and the group of schools in the SEC East that it jumped in 2019.  In particular, Missouri and Vanderbilt signed classes that simply aren’t going to cut it in the SEC.  And while UK and South Carolina have respectable classes and some really strong position groups (e.g., UK did well on both lines) those classes would have Vol fans burning mattresses if they were in Orange and White.  Arkansas, Tennessee’s rotational SEC West opponent in 2020, did nothing to make one think that on top of their already bad roster and coaching-change-driven attrition that they will be anywhere close to the Vols talent wise. 

Florida, Tennessee’s arch nemesis and only rightful partner at the top of the SEC East with Georgia, also had a strong class.  Using Rivals rankings, the Gators’ 24-man class  finished 7th in the country with one 5-star and thirteen 4-stars and an average star ranking of 3.58, while Tennessee’s 23-man class finished 9th overall with zero 5-stars (pending QB Harrison Bailey’s deserved 5th) and thirteen 4-stars and an average star ranking of 3.52.  So, yeah, pretty much equal to each other in objective metrics.  Pruitt will have to outcoach and outdevelop Head Gator Dan Mullen in order to overtake the Gators.

While we wait to hear whether or not TE Darnell Washington signed at all and if so whether it was with Tennessee or Georgia, either way there are only a handful of real difference makers left in the 2020 class that Tennessee could realistically sign in February.  At the very top of the short list of difference makers is of course is Auburn DL commitment Jay Hardy.  Everyone knows the story – the fact that he didn’t sign with Auburn, whether his plan was always to sign in February or not, is a great indicator that the Vols have a massive opportunity to flip him and add to an already strong DL haul.  Other than him, it seems like Jumbo ATH Dee Beckwith is the other main target until someone else pops up, and with Florida having already used its official visit with him in December and his brother Camryn having accepted a PWO offer from Tennessee, the Vols are likely in the driver’s seat should they choose to be.  Beckwith’s issue (or, more accurately, this writer’s issue with Beckwith) is that he clearly loves basketball more than he loves football.  It just so happens that while he’s a very good basketball player capable of realistically playing lower-level ball in college, he’s clearly viewed as a bigtime football prospect as evidenced by offers from the likes of the Vols and the Gators.  So that will have to work itself out one way or the other.  Tennessee signed an outstanding group of playmakers in WRs Jalin Hyatt and Jimmy Calloway to go with QB/ATH Jimmy Holiday, but Beckwith’s film is intriguing in that you can squint and see the kind of massive WR that doesn’t exist very often in college football.  Like Holiday, he’s be an unusual chess piece for OC Jim Chaney to play with in his search to make Tennessee’s offense more dynamic and explosive.

If one agrees that other than those handful above there just aren’t really any unsigned prospects that are going to move the needle for the Vols, then the question becomes what is the best use of the available scholarships.  Rolling them over to a 2021 class that should be Pruitt’s best since he began his tenure in Knoxville given the upward trajectory of the program, the recruiting staff he currently has (even before any potential upgrades in that area) as well as an unusually strong crop of instate talent, is a viable option.  The other is making prudent use of the Transfer Portal.  “Prudent” is the operative word here, and in this case it translates to “former elite prospects who are leaving elite programs.”  For example, Aubrey Solomon and Deangelo Gibbs.  That’s the kind of talent, whether it is immediately available or you have to wait a year, that’s worth using a scholarship on.  A contra example would be (and we mean no disrespect) Madre London.  Tennessee might not yet have a roster capable of winning the SEC, but it also no longer has positions of simply glaring need where a random Grad Transfer could just step in and immediately start.  This isn’t Georgia Tech with Ryan Johnson or Central Florida and UCF.  Now, currently there aren’t many of those.  Right now, there is recent UGA portaler DE Robert Beal or Alabama transfer DB Scooby Carter and that’s about it.  After the bowl games there are likely to be more that shake out though, and that’s the kind of talent Tennessee should be focused on adding with its remaining openings. 

Predicting the Tennessee-Indiana game using SPM comps

The TaxSlayer Bowl pitting the Tennessee Volunteers against the Indiana Hoosiers opened with Indiana as a slight 1.5-point favorite. It has since flipped so that now the Vols are a 1.5-point favorite. Regardless, Vegas is expecting a close game. Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine has to say about this year’s Gator Bowl and whether I think it’s right or wrong.

Vols-Hoosiers

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee’s points:

  • Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 24.3
  • Indiana scoring defense for the season: 24.5

The Indiana scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • BYU 24.4
  • South Carolina 26.1

Early in the season, Tennessee scored 26 points against BYU, but got 41 against the Gamecocks as the Vols began to find their stride. Taken together, that 133% of what those teams usually give up, so the SPM estimates 32.6 points for the Vols against Indiana.

Indiana’s points:

  • Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 21.7
  • Indiana scoring offense for the season: 32.6

The Indiana scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):

  • Georgia State 32.4
  • Florida 33

Florida scored 34 points against the Vols, and Georgia State scored 38. That’s slightly more than what those teams scored over the course of the season, and the SPM translates that into 35.9 points for Indiana against Tennessee.

Estimated score: Tennessee 32.6, Indiana 35.9

From the perspective of Indiana

Indiana’s points:

  • Indiana scoring offense for the season: 32.6
  • Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 21.7

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Indiana opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Michigan State 22.7
  • Northwestern 23.6

Indiana scored 31 points against Michigan State and 34 against Northwestern, 141% of what those teams usually give up. That makes the estimated points for Indiana against the Vols 30.6.

Tennessee’s points:

  • Indiana scoring defense for the season: 24.5
  • Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 24.3

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Indiana opponent(s):

  • Maryland 25.3
  • Purdue 25.8

Maryland got 28 against Indiana, and Purdue got 41, meaning Indiana’s defense allowed the two closest comps 135% of what they usually score. Estimated points for Tennessee against Indiana: 32.8.

Estimated score: Indiana 30.6, Tennessee 32.8

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 32.7, Indiana 33.2

SPM Final estimated spread: Indiana -.5

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 1

Those numbers are the SPM’s way of warning you not to put too much confidence in the outcome of this game one way or the other.

Eyeball adjustments

Here’s the thing. I think the estimates of Tennessee’s points are too low and the estimates of Indiana’s points are too high. From the Vols’ perspective, the comps include a BYU game that was really early in a long season of continued improvement. Just using South Carolina as the comp would make the estimated points for the Vols from this perspective 38.

And I feel like Indiana’s estimated points are too high because the comps are Georgia State and Florida, two games very early in the season before the defense began to improve. Against teams not named Alabama, the Tennessee defense allowed an average of only 13.5 points against teams that together averaged 23.6 points. If you use that data, the estimated points for Indiana from the Vols’ perspective would be only 19.

All of that would make the Vols’ perspective spit out Tennessee 38, Indiana 19. I don’t think the machine is quite as wrong as that, but the difference is enough to make me think this isn’t the pick ’em everybody and everything thinks it is.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Tennessee 35, Indiana 28. The SPM is imitating Vegas’ shrug on this one, but I like the Vols by a touchdown.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, Indiana opened as a 1.5-point favorite, and it has since shifted to the Vols being a 1.5-point favorite. With an over/under of around 49, that translates to something like Tennessee 25, Indiana 24.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 52.3% chance of winning.

I haven’t seen SP+ bowl picks yet, but when I see them I’ll add the Tennessee-Indiana prediction here.

Bottom line

The SPM gives only half a point to Indiana in this game, and it’s about as far from being confident against the spread as it can get. I think the eyes see something the machines can’t, and so I like the Vols by a touchdown.

  • Vegas (current): Tennessee, -1.5 (~Tennessee 25, Indiana 24)
  • SP+: (TBD)
  • SPM: Tennessee 32.7, Indiana 33.2 (Vols don’t cover)
  • Me: Tennessee 35, Indiana 28 (Vols cover)

What do y’all think?

Looking at Potential DBs to Fill the Class

With the loss of JUCO Art Green and the potential flip of Mordecai McDaniel to Florida (which would NOT be mutual), what was once a class of three DBs for Tennessee is down to two and possibly only one (stud S/CB Keshawn Lawrence).  And despite having a solid group of young players on the roster, with the amount of Nickel and even Dime defense that Head Coach Jeremy Pruitt and DC Derrick Ansley like to play, there is always going to be a need for talented bodies there.   Could the Vols survive a cycle with only Lawrence as a DB signee?  Probably.  Especially since there are a handful of other current commitments who could also project to the secondary.  Jimmy Calloway, who’s listed as a WR and is absolutely electric with the ball in his hands, was being recruited by Oklahoma as a DB (notably, Florida is also trying to flip him, and he is still undecided as to whether he will sign next week or not).  Tamarion McDonald, part of the Whitehaven Trio, has played all over the field throughout his high school career and is for sure a candidate to play the Nickel position, where his combination of coverage skills and hitting ability would be a perfect fit should he not grow into a LB.  That said, it does seem like the Vols are at least giving themselves options should they want and/or need to add at least one more DB.  Tennessee will have four DBs on campus this weekend, with a fifth prospect still lingering.

Emmanuel Appiah is a JUCO early enrollee originally from New Jersey.  He’s got offers from Auburn and Tennessee and officially visited the Tigers for the Iron Bowl weekend.  He had a big sophomore season with eight INTs, and at 6’0 with good length he’s got the requisite size for a Pruitt DB.  Notably, he is good friends with Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano.  Likely a guy who can step in and help at least rotationally right away, it remains unclear where he is on both Auburn’s and Tennessee’s board.

Decamerion Richardson is an intriguing option at CB from Bossier City, LA.  He’s a LONG 6’2 and a track star – he ran a 10.75 100M and 21.63 200M along with a high jump of 6’0, good for 2nd, 3rd and 2nd respectively in the state of LA – yet another prospect with the classic Pruitt DB makeup .  A bit of a late bloomer, once Richardson’s senior tape got out  – he ended up receiving All District honors as both 1st Team RB and DB – he quickly received offers from South Carolina, Tennessee, and Mississippi State (where he OV’d this past weekend).  He liked his visit to Starkville quite a bit, so the Vols could have a fight on their hands should they decide to truly engage. 

Doneiko Slaughter is an Arizona State commitment from Roswell, GA outside of Atlanta.  More of a S/Nickel prospect than a Cornerback, Slaughter’s calling card is his combo of good if not elite speed (10.88 100M and a 4.65 40) and real physicality.  He just took an OV to Miami, so clearly his commitment is soft, so if the Vols push they likely can land him.  A “baller” according to the esteemed Chad Simmons of Rivals, Slaughter plays with an edge that you know Pruitt loves.

Donovan Kaufman is, like Richardson, a Coach David YAC Johnson special from Louisiana.  A Vanderbilt commitment, Kaufman is very likely to end up somewhere much better than West End.  Speaking of ballers, Kaufman did it all for his state championship Archbishop Rummel team this season, making 112 tackles, scoring six touchdowns, forcing six fumbles, and registering eight sacks and four INTs in 13 games.  He carried the ball from the Wildcat position and returned kicks as well.  Those stats, and the way he jumps out on film, make the Honey Badger comparisons all too easy for the New Orleans native.  Kaufman just received an offer from new FSU coach Mike Norvell, who recruited Louisiana very well at Memphis and had tried with Kaufman while with the Tigers, and is now receiving significant interest from LSU (who is, as everyone knows, very short on numbers).   Kaufman stands out from the rest of this list because he is on the shorter end at 5’9, but he’s a playmaker and a winner, two things Pruitt covets at all positions. 

Kendall Dennis is a familiar name to many Vol fans as he visited Knoxville twice over the summer.  The 4-star Florida native has been thought to be an Auburn lean for quite a while, but a late Clemson offer threw a monkey wrench into his recruitment.  However, Clemson has since decided to move on a different DB for their final spot at the position, leaving Dennis in a bit of limbo.  Oklahoma, where he took an OV recently, is still an option, and Nebraska is in the same boat. USF, who’s new coach is former Clemson assistant Jeff Scott, could also get involved.  While Tennessee isn’t currently scheduled to receive an OV this weekend, the Vols were included in his Top 5 this past week and could be a player if things break a certain way for both parties.  That will be one to watch.

Whether the Vols have to fill one or two spots in the defensive backfield in this class remains to be seen, but Pruitt and staff have done a tremendous job setting themselves up with a plethora of talented prospects to choose from whatever decision they make.  This weekend will go a long way for both Tennessee and the respective prospects in determining which direction the Vols go, but it seems hard for them to go wrong.

Nine Days Out – Recruiting Musings

Hard to overstate how big of a commitment DL Omari Thomas is for Tennessee.  Thomas is a true blue chip prospect, with the kind of size and talent that requires no explanation.  With the Vols major need for DL in this class, particularly as one looks to 2021 and beyond, Thomas is a cornerstone player for the future of the Vol defense.  And as much as landing the Whitehaven Trio was big in its own right, Thomas represents another bigtime recruiting win against elite programs like Alabama and such, while also further cementing Tennessee as the dominant recruiting power in Memphis under Coach Jeremy Pruitt. 

Thomas’s high school teammate RB Jabari Small is set to commit tomorrow, and all signs point to him continuing Tennessee’s sweep of Memphis.  In this writer’s opinion Small profiles as a very capable SEC back, with better-than-you-might-think size (5’11, 190) and a combination of good if not great speed and outstanding quickness, agility, and short-area moves.  Very much in the mold of Eric Gray, Small is a great complement to Tennessee’s other RB commitment Tee Hodge, playing the classic Lightning role to Hodge’s Thunder.  Smalls was, along with Thomas, a finalist for Tennessee’s Mr. Football, and finished his senior season with 29 TDs and just under 2,000 rushing+receiving yards.  His final game was a 4 TD performance in the Tennessee high school playoffs against Ensworth and their P5-littered defense. 

I don’t think it’s coincidental that the Tennessee smoke coming out of Morven Joseph’s OV to Florida on Sunday came within hours of Vol commitment Jimari Butler telling Rivals that he was essentially decommitting from Tennessee.  The guess here is that the Tennessee staff they said something to the effect of “If you’re taking other visits we can’t hold your spot.” Butler then went to Nebraska this past weekend and was then his spot was taken.  Butler is certainly a good looking prospect with outstanding upside – we’ve said as much here and here – but it’s hard to compare him to Joseph and not come away feeling like the Vols would be well off with that swap.  Joseph’s clearly got a more refined game, and while he’s not go Butler’s physical size he’s far from small at 6’3 220.  And there’s a reason he got springtime offers from the likes of Alabama and Auburn and that his other finalist is Florida – three teams known for dominant pass rushers.  With word that Pruitt and his staff are still pushing to flip BJ Ojulari back from LSU, things at Edge Rusher could end up finishing better than anyone could have ever imagined and the Vols will be SET there for a few years.

Tennessee looks like it’s in really good shape for TCU QB/ATH commitment Jimmy Holiday from Madison, MS, especially after wowing him by bringing the entire offensive staff on his inhome visit.  Ranked by 247 as the 1,389th (!!!) prospect in the class and the 33rd player in Mississippi, the forecast here is that Holiday will skyrocket up the rankings after this coming AL/MS All-Star Game week.  Holiday is simply electric with the ball in his hands and his film shows some modicum of passing ability.  A lot this week could depend on which position(s) he practices at, but expect to hear rave reviews from national writers coming out of Hattiesburg.

Tennessee’s staff could not have set this weekend up more perfectly.  Days before the Early Signing Period begins, the Vols will have a TON of top talent on campus.  And not only that, the recruits will be present for what should be a wild and raucous atmosphere in Thompson Boiling Arena as Rick Barnes’s squad dominates the Memphis Tigers.  Below are the recruits set to officially visit:

TE Darnell Washington

WR Ramon Henderson*

WR Corey Wren

RB Zaquandre White (JUCO)

ILB Desmond Tisdol

ILB Vai Kaho

OLB Jaqwondis Burns*

DB Emmanuel Appiah (JUCO)

DB Donovan Kaufman

DB Decamerion Richardson

DB Doneiko Slaughter

* tentative

We made the case for oversigning last week, simply based on the sheer amount of top talent that Tennessee could very, very realistically land were numbers not an issue.  With now eight spots remaining pending any further decommitments or scholarship gymnastics, Tennessee’s board is basically a decision tree of prospects.  For example:

Are you holding a spot for Darnell Washington?  If Yes, you now have seven spots.  If no, or if you’re told he’s not coming, you’re back to eight

Do you land Tyler Baron?  Do you also land Octavius Oxendine?  If Yes to both, do you take Reginald Perry? 

Are you holding a spot in February for Jay Hardy?  What if he signs with Auburn next week?  Either way, what does that do for Perry?

Do you take Vai Kaho, or Desmond Tisdol, or both ILBs?

If you land Morven Joseph at Edge, do you take another?  Is Khari Coleman that guy, or does it have to be Ojulari?

Do you think you need another DB?  Is Mordecai McDaniel solid anyway, or is a flip to Florida in the works?  If either one is Yes, what’s the order of your list?

Assuming you land Small tomorrow, do can you possibly take a 3rd RB (White, or even Len’neth Whitehead)?

If you land Holiday, is he your 2nd QB or your 4th WR to go with Jalin Hyatt, Jimmy Calloway and Darion Williamson?  If he’s a QB, does that open 1-2 spots for Henderson and Wren?  If there’s only one more, who do you prioritize?

And finally, what do you do if Tate Ratledge gives you an indication that he might flip?  What about if you have to wait to February?  Who loses their spot from the list above?

For the most part these are all good problems to have.  The Vols are deep in the mix with upwards of 20 prospects, each of whom would upgrade the overall talent level on Tennessee’s roster at their respective positions, and some of them are no-brainer, blue chip guys for whom the Vols are recruiting against some of the top programs in the country.  Pruitt and his staff are showing no signs of slowing down to set themselves up in the best position possible with the deepest and most talented board they can get.  The next, and maybe most important step, will be to read the board correctly and manage things such that they land as many of the players THEY WANT as they can. 

GRT Bowl Pick ‘Em

Our 2019-20 Bowl Pick ‘Em is now open at Fun Office Pools. If you played with us last year, or in this year’s regular season picks contest, you should’ve received an email this morning with an invitation to join, or you can sign up directly at Fun Office Pools. As always, it’s free to play.

And as always, we use confidence points: make your picks straight up in each of the 40 bowl games, including the playoffs, then assign a point value to each contest: 40 points for the outcome you’re most confident in, one point for the outcome you’re least confident in, etc.

Congrats to PAVol for winning our season-long picks contest, going 219-71 straight up and winning by two confidence points over 290 games!

The bowl fun starts December 20, but the pool is open now. Our old friends at Banner Society rank the Gator Bowl seventh in their watchability ratings in today’s Read Option newsletter.

The Jim Chaney Effect: Vols get better, Bulldogs get worse

Last January, we made a list of reasons that Jeremy Pruitt hiring Jim Chaney away from Georgia was a very good thing. Chaney’s offenses were incredibly and consistently productive, he was a good fit with Pruitt and Knoxville, he had decades of experience, and he seemed to be the perfect combination of both excellence and stability.

One of the biggest reasons we were juiced about the hire, though, was the notion that it not only made Tennessee better, it made Georgia worse.

Well, is it true? Here is a comparison of Tennessee’s offensive stats from the end of the 2018 regular season to the end of the 2019 regular season:

Helping yourself

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Let’s start with the concession that not everything improved. The quarterbacks threw more interceptions (11 this year to 5 last year) and the offense got worse in the red zone this season. And despite any improvement in other areas, you can’t really say that the offense is humming.

But there was improvement in many offensive categories. Total Offense, Scoring Offense, and Rushing Offense all improved. The offense was better on first downs and more explosive in the passing game, and it was much better on third down this year than last. The biggest improvement came in keeping guys from getting tackled behind their own line of scrimmage.

If that doesn’t really move the needle for you, consider this: The Jim Chaney Effect doesn’t really show up until his second season behind the wheel.

As Will wrote in our 2019 Vols magazine, Chaney’s offense at Georgia in 2016 ranked only 74th in SP+, averaging 5.44 yards per play and 24.5 points per game. For the sake of comparison, his 2019 offense at Tennessee averaged 4.38 yards per play and 24.3 points per game. Worse on yards, about the same on points.

His 2017 offense at Georgia, though, climbed all the way to 7th in SP+ (6.7 yards per play and 35.4 points per game), and then went to 3rd in SP+ in 2018 with 7.05 yards per play and 37.9 points per game.

Here’s a tweet to prove it:

Bottom line, Tennessee’s offense has already improved in Jim Chaney’s first year, and it’s not at all unreasonable for Vols fans to expect to see a huge improvement in 2020.

Hurting your rival

What about Georgia? Your eyeballs are insisting that the Bulldogs missed Chaney something terrible this year. The numbers concur:

The 2019 Bulldogs’ offense was fine protecting the quarterback and the line of scrimmage and even held steady in the red zone. But it was worse at everything else. The Bulldogs went from 18th to 60th in Total Offense, from 14th to 51st in Scoring Offense, and from 16th to 37th in Rushing Offense even though they still had Deandre Swift and a stable of studs. The Passing Offense wasn’t needed in 2018, and the numbers got no better this year when it was.

Yes, the Georgia Bulldogs’ offense got dramatically worse this year, and it’s because Jim Chaney left for Tennessee.

Long Road, Right Destination: Vols in the Gator Bowl

(furiously deletes 700 words on the Music City Bowl)

Actually, let me say this: Nashville’s bowl runs a good show. I went in 2010 and really enjoyed it (until the end, of course). I think it’s good for the state to have the Music City Bowl do well. And there are seasons in rebuild mode when it really isn’t a bad destination for the Vols, like 2010.

That just wasn’t the case when the Gator Bowl was a realistic possibility, which it has been since Tennessee beat South Carolina, or a rightful one, which it has been since Tennessee finished a 6-1 run to end the regular season.

And now, after much deliberation and plenty of false starts:

https://twitter.com/Vol_Football/status/1203789190325919744

Here’s what I wrote when it looked like Nashville:

The Music City Bowl is not as prestigious as the Gator Bowl, full stop. It may be more desirable to individual fans depending on where you live, it may pay a little more, and it may create a nice recruiting setup in the mid-state. And a bowl can change its own fate – see the Peach Bowl, once a sign of a disappointing season at UT, now a New Year’s Six bowl – and perhaps Nashville will earn that reputation. None of that changes the prestige of January vs December 30, or the fact that Nashville’s bowl is 21 years old and Jacksonville’s has been played since the end of World War II.

It looked like the Vols were just going to be on the wrong side of bad luck. There’s no argument for Kentucky as a more deserving or desirable option than Tennessee in a vacuum. But in 2019, circumstances appeared to be working for the Cats and against the Vols. The Gator Bowl took an ACC team three years in a row and was contractually obligated, whatever that’s worth, to take a Big Ten team. Because of the final College Football Playoff rankings, Indiana was the best available option. In any other year of the last six, Indiana and Kentucky play in Nashville. But with the Music City obligated to an ACC team on the other half of their deal with Jacksonville, and Louisville being a good fit there…we didn’t have to like Nashville, but it at least made sense.

The Vols also just missed the Outback Bowl by 10-3 Wisconsin staying at #8 in the final College Football Playoff poll and Penn State staying ahead of an Auburn team that beat Oregon and Alabama. If the New Year’s Six used the AP poll instead, #9 Auburn would be in the Cotton Bowl, Alabama in the Citrus Bowl, and the Vols in the Outback Bowl. Instead, we have three Big Ten teams in the New Year’s Six and the SEC’s teams going down a peg.

But the Vols didn’t fall any further than that, earning the January bid to Jacksonville at the 11th hour and 58th minute. And here’s something we can say with greater certainty now: even if the Vols beat Georgia State and BYU to open the year, they’re probably still playing Indiana in the Gator Bowl. Tennessee would be ranked, but still in the Group of Six and still less deserving than Auburn. You’d always prefer to be 9-3 than 7-5, but perhaps the Vols learned a few things along the way this season that will prove to be more valuable than a pair of early escapes would’ve revealed.

Also: now we’re in-between two scenarios. The Outback Bowl was desirable not just for its own prestige, but a shot at a ranked opponent like Minnesota. Tennessee is hot, and did beat three bowl-bound teams plus 6-6 Missouri in this run. But the Vols only faced three ranked teams this season. Via the media guide, that hasn’t happened to Tennessee since 2003 (#17 Florida, #8 Georgia, #6 Miami). Tennessee would’ve been an underdog to the Golden Gophers by around eight points in SP+. It’s a bigger ask on a question this team hasn’t answered yet.

On the other hand, play Louisville in the Music City, and you’re likely a big favorite (around -10 in SP+). Given what our friends from Kentucky just did to them, you have little to gain here.

Instead, it’s Indiana. The name doesn’t do much traditionally in football, but the 8-4 Hoosiers would be a four-point favorite in SP+. It’s an also receiving votes bowl in the Coaches’ Poll; a great performance from either team could earn them a ranked finish.

It’s not a huge opportunity to level up like the Outback Bowl. But Indiana would likely be Tennessee’s best win this season. It’s the right bowl, and the right opportunity.

And it’s January, in primetime, the only game happening on the evening of January 2. This Tennessee team, led by its seniors, has given the program hope when it seemed furthest away. They can be forever tied to a turnaround if the Vols to follow in the 2020’s continue down this path. The Gator Bowl can be a bridge. I’m thrilled to see if they can cross it.

See you in the new year.