Category Archives: Football

Street Fightin’ Man

“My goal is five years from now when I stand back up here, is for everyone to still be this excited. That’s my goal. I’m challenging everybody who is associated with this university. Let’s get our hands out of our pockets. Let’s roll our sleeves up. Let’s get ready to get in the streets with everyone else in the SEC. That’s what we have to do to be successful. If we want to get what we want, we have to outwork everyone. Let’s not talk about it. Let’s go do it. It starts today. Everyone associated with it, let’s get ready to go get what we want.”

We’ll have more on the two new signees individually, along with the impact we think this 2020 class will have on the future of Tennessee football, in the coming hours and days.  But what needs to be said first and foremost is that Coach Jeremy Pruitt is doing *exactly* what he said he would do in his introductory press conference.  And that is getting into street fights with the top programs in the top conference in the country, along with other national powers, and beating them for talent.  Today’s two-for-two finish to National Signing Day includes one player Tennessee straight up beat out Florida for (Dee Beckwith) and one player (Malachi Wideman) who not only did Tennessee beat out homestate Florida State for (where he was committed to) but also Oregon, one of the top programs in the country for the last decade or more.  That comes on the heels of December victories over Florida (Morven Joseph), Auburn (Omari Thomas), and Ohio State (Tyler Baron), along with multiple recruiting wins against the likes of Alabama, Clemson, Georgia and the like in his first two classes.

He’s done it in a variety of ways: Playing the long game with certain recruits, stepping in late and taking advantage of coaching changes elsewhere for others, and just outworking other programs.  He’s upgraded his staff from a recruiting perspective from Year 1 to Year 2.  And he’s also currently on the nation’s second longest winning streak (6) after digging the team out of a major hole. 

Tennessee isn’t there yet.  The roster still needs more talent and more depth.  But it’s damn sure closer than it was when Pruitt got here, it’s closer than it was before the December signing period, it’s after the additions the Vols made from the transfer portal, and it’s even closer after today’s finish to the 2020 class.

On Zach Evans, UGA, and spots…

Just a thought…

UGA signed 19 players in December.  They’ve since taken 2 scholarship transfers, taking them to 21 signees.  Further, the Bulldogs also have two unsigned OL commitments who they’re hosting this weekend and desperately want to hold onto in Broderick Jones and Sedrick Van Prann.  Importantly, they took two transfers on top of their 25 enrollees from 2019, so unless they want to roll scholarships into 2021 (like Tennessee appears willing to do and as Jesse Simonton from Volquest.com has astutely noted is the smart thing to do if you’re taking instant impact transfers each year) then theoretically they’re done at 23 if they hold onto those two OL.

However, they are also hosting a good number of newly offered kids this weekend, including 3-star DBs Daran Branch (a former Ole Miss commit) and Charles Bell (a former Syracuse commitment who in particular appears to be on commit watch); 3-star ATH DJ Lundy; and 3-star instate DL Cameron Kinnie (previously down to Army and Air Force).  UGA is also battling Florida and Miami for 4-star S Avantae Williams, who is in Gainesville this weekend and could potentially visit Athens next weekend depending on what happens with Branch and Bell.  Additional last-weekend visitors are OL Marcus Henderson (who UT has passed on) and WR Ladd McConkey (set to visit Tennessee this weekend unofficially).

All that to say, there are *quite* a few scenarios in which UGA hits its theoretical maximum 23 signees – and potentially a handful more than a couple of additional – very easily before 5-star RB and major Vol target Zach Evans is considered.  And that’s before we get to perhaps the most salient visitor to the point here: 4-star instate RB Daijun Edwards who is also visiting Georgia this weekend.  Edwards is currently scheduled to trip to Tallahassee next weekend, but it’s far from beyond the realm of possibility that the two parties could decide to pair up this weekend and be done, with Edwards shutting down his recruitment and UGA finishing up its RB class with Edwards and signee Kendall Milton.  Obviously that in and of itself would almost certainly remove UGA from contention for Evans.

What all of that means is that, whatever Georgia and Evan’s relationship is right now and whatever either side would like it to be going forward, there are a LOT of moving pieces on just Georgia’s side of the ledger that could preclude them from being an option for Evans should he want them to be.  Now, in order for Tennessee to end up signing the 5-star, program-changing RB, they’ll have to knock this weekend’s official visit out of the park – a near certainty – AND get themselves comfortable with whatever off the field issues have existed in the past.  But assuming both of those things happen there could very well exist a scenario in which Evans sees the Vols as not just his best choice but his only choice.  And that would be, to put it mildly, huge for Tennessee.

Offense Wins Games…and Championships?

With the news of Jay Hardy in fact signing with Auburn during December’s early signing period, that removes any chance the Vols can land the instate DL standout.  And while that’s disappointing from a talent perspective, not only does the way he handled his recruitment confirm that Coach Jeremy Pruitt dodged a major character risk bullet but it also allows the staff to move on and concentrate on the few remaining prospects on the board.  Interestingly, and likely only coincidentally, those handful of players still on the board (unless someone new pops up in the next 2.5 weeks) are all on offense.  For Pruitt, a former elite Defensive Coordinator who has revamped Tennessee’s defense during his two seasons in Knoxville, this surely must feel strange.  However, given how strong the Vols defensive immediate and long-term future looks he’s likely at least partially ok with it.  Further, when one looks at the offensive proclivity of the recent college football champions, with LSU being the most recent and most extreme example, and even most of not all of the playoff teams, it’s clear that the old adage that defense wins championships is not necessarily true.  So as the Vols look to close out their 2020 class strongly, it looks like they’re taking an offense-first approach, which is exactly what this roster needs.

We’ve pushed for more playmakerson offense throughout the cycle. Since the early signing period ended Tennessee has added former 4-star WR Velus Jones from USC as a 1-year grad transfer as well as former 4-star Nebraska ATH Miles Jones as a walk-on.  This past weekend Tennessee hosted TE/WR Dee Beckwith and FSU commitment Malachi Wideman, and all indications are that the Vols are in very deep for both prospects. Beckwith is a Kyle Pitts clone – a big, agile WR masquerading in a TE body with the kind of explosiveness that one rarely sees in that sort of 6’5 frame. He’s simply put the kind of player the Vols don’t have on the roster.  Wideman is, even more than Beckwith, a freak.  At 6’5 and with the kind of athleticism to make him a Top 100 basketball prospect to go with his Top 50 ranking on the gridiron, Wideman would be the absolute cherry on top of what is already a strong WR class.  This weekend the Vols will host WRs Ger-Cari Caldwell and Ladd McConkey (unofficially), with Caldwell a South Carolina lean going into the weekend and  McConkey seemingly waiting on a Vol offer.  They are different kinds of prospects, with Caldwell more of a big bodied WR and McConkey profiling as a Slot WR.  In a major turn of events 5-star RB Zach Evans will also officially visit Knoxville this weekend.  Evan’s recruiting saga is well known, and until things get more serious between him and the Vols it’s not super worthwhile to delve too deeply here.  Suffice it to say that Evans, if he can mature and put his past transgressions behind him, would be a program-changing type of RB. 

We’ve also highlighted the strong offensive line class the Vols have put together.  The Vols have added to that with the much-hyped transfer of former UGA stalwart Cade Mays, and this past weekend also hosted fast-rising Southern Mississippi commitment Dylan Spencer.  Spencer, who just finished his first season on the offensive line after transitioning from defense, earned 1st team all state honors in MS and also showed out during AL/MS Game practices.  At 6’3, 300 pounds, the Vols think he can play Offensive Tackle which is a position that the Vols haven’t found anyone for this cycle after hitting two homeruns last year in Wanya Morris and Darnell Wright.  Spencer is likely not at the very top of Tennessee’s list at the moment, and he’s got offers from Mississippi State (visiting there this weekend) and Missouri among a few others, so he might decide he doesn’t want to wait on the Vols.  That’s something to keep an eye on.

Finally, we’ve made the case for Tennessee signing as many prospects as possible in this class due to the need to get the overall talent AND depth in the program up to par to truly contend for championships.  With the high-quality transfers and how the Vols appear to be approaching the final signing period – setting themselves up to have multiple prospects want to jump in the boat – that does appear to be the direction Pruitt is taking.  Whether that pans out or not remains to be seen and will depend on who wants in and when.

This weekend in Knoxville Tennessee will look to knock Evans’ and Caldwell’s visits out of the park and evaluate what they want to do with McConkey (who is currently scheduled to OV to UGA next weekend, and they have in fact offered).  At the same time, they’ll be keeping an eye on Wideman’s visit to Oregon and Beckwith’s visit to Florida, hopefully communicating with those prospects as much as is allowed.  Once the dust settles from all of the visits, Tennessee will be able to assess where they are with these targets and strategically use assistant coaches’ and more importantly Pruitt’s inhome visits this next week before the final dead period begins.  The hope here is that the landscape has an orange hue to it, with a bigtime focus on closing with the kind of offensive talent that can take the program to the next, championship contending, level.

Weekend of the Wide Receiver in Knoxville

This coming weekend, the first out of the dead period and before the February 2020 signing day, will feature a handful of 2020 official visitors as well as a slew of 2021 prospects.  Thematically, regardless of class what is clear is that this is the Weekend of the Wide Receiver in Knoxville. 

In the 2020 class, the Vols be bringing in WR/TE Dee Beckwith and FSU WR commitment Malachi Wideman.  Beckwith is an interesting prospect in that he’s likely a college TE, but in the pass-catching mold of Florida’s Kyle Pitts with inline blocking something he’ll need to grow into.  Florida is, perhaps not coincidentally, his stated leader and according to him is recruiting him harder than anyone.  The Vols will have their chance to make a final on-campus pitch this weekend and will seemingly need to decide whether they go all-in, as they clearly have ground to make up.  His half-brother Camryn Beckwith (a RB) is an incoming preferred walk-on for the Vols, which should help but apparently isn’t the end-all be-all.  Wideman is an athletic freak, who at 6’4 and 180 pounds also happens to be a high level basketball player known for his prolific and viral-video producing dunks.  Tee Martin and Chris Weinke have worked hard to get Wideman to campus, and because Wideman has already taken his OV to Tallahassee he’s more wide open than his “commitment” might suggest.  He does have an OV scheduled to Oregon for the weekend after, as well as one to FAU (where former FSU coach Willie Taggart landed), so the Vols are unlikely to lock him down this weekend.  However, they can put themselves firmly in the mix, if not at the top, with a strong visit.  Going out on a bit of a limb here, but should the Vols land Wideman he looks to be the best incoming Tennessee WR prospect since current NFL rookie Preston Williams.  That kind of athleticism, size, and catch radius is rare, and were Pruitt and Martin able to add him to the current WR signees Jalin Hyatt and Jimmy Calloway, that would not only restock the WR corps for both the near term and the future but would also represent arguably the best group of WR signees in multiple years.  If they do that could impact numbers at the position for 2021. Speaking of numbers, OL Dylan Spencer, a Southern Mississippi commitment, is also officially visiting this weekend; however, with the addition of Cade Mays to go with the three incoming freshmen signees it’s far from certain that Tennessee will have room for another OL in the class. That said, should things go the wrong way with the small group of targets left on the board at positions of greater need, Spencer would be an intriguing add. Playing his first year at OL after spending the rest of his high school career on the DL, Spencer earned first team all state honors in Mississippi as well as a spot on the AL/MS All-Star Game, where he earned acclaim for his play during the week of practice. He’s very potentially an OT, which makes him all the more valuable. He’s gotten very recent offers from Mississippi State and Missouri, and one would presume the Bulldogs in particular have a great shot. But he’s certainly one to keep an eye on.

Speaking of 2021, Tennessee will also have, as of this writing, seven(!) 2021 WR prospects on campus.  Among them are 4-star instate stud Walker Merrill; 4-star Florida native Romello Brinson; as well as South Carolina natives Ahmari Huggins-Bruce (who recently participated in the All-American Bowl Combine) and JJ Jones; Alabamians Malachi Bennett (in Knoxville for at least his fourth visit, most recently the UAB game) and Christian Lewis; and Chauncey Magwood from Georgia.  Along with instate WRs Adonai Mitchell, Quenton Barnes, and Scottie Alexander; 4-stars Kobe Paysour (for whom the Vols just made a Top 7), Gavin Blackwell (visited for the South Carolina game), Isaiah Brevard and James Blackstrain, this group makes up Tennessee’s early WR board for 2021.

Not to get lost in the WR shuffle, there will be other notable 2021s on campus, most importantly 5-star LB Dylan Brooks, 4-star QB Christian Veilleux, and bigtime DL Isaac Washington.  Brooks’ recruitment will be an all-out war between the Vols and instate powers Alabama and Auburn, but he attended three games in Knoxville this past season and has been on campus a handful of other times as well, so Tennessee is clearly in deep with this elite player.  Veilleux is making his 3rd visit since last summer, including the Mississippi State game, this time as part of a campus tour that will also take him to Duke and Clemson, which indicates what kind of prospect he is (PSU is also a big factor here).  Washington will also be making his third visit and appears to be very high on the Vols at the moment, good news considering how big a need DL is in 2021. Other scheduled visitors include recently offered DL Tyrion Ingram and LB Raneiria Dillworth.  Getting these kinds of prospects on campus is a great sign for the kind of momentum Tennessee has on the recruiting trail.  Continuing to get these players as well as other top targets on campus in January and February, before the cycle truly gets started, will be of paramount importance for Coach Pruitt and his staff.

What’s Next in Recruiting?

With a lot of news to digest, from the transfer of skill players RB/WR Miles Jones and WR Velus Jones as well as OL Cade Mays, to the decision of All-American OL Trey Smith, a few thoughts below on how that might affect Tennessee’s approach to the February signing period:

With those transfers, Tennessee has now added 23 players in the 2020 class, leaving two spots before any monkeying with the numbers.  It’s not breaking news to say that DL Jay Hardy and ATH Dee Beckwith have those spots locked up should they want them and that whoever else might want in will be dependent on said numbers machinations. 

A quick thought on Beckwith: Although this writer has been a bit critical of his apparent love for basketball, perhaps to the detriment of his future in football, that opinion has changed somewhat as his focus seems to have narrowed back to football.  Further, and more importantly, watching how Florida (his other finalist) featured a *very* similar player in TE Kyle Pitts as almost the focal point of its offense, his value as a prospect has increased.  Were Tennessee to land Beckwith (who visits Tennessee January 31st after tripping to UK and UF) and develop him into a player like Pitts, that would be massive for an offense that continues to evolve with multiple different kinds of players, from big-bodied WRs like Josh Palmer to speed demons like Jalin Hyatt to more Swiss Army types like Jimmy Calloway, Jimmy Holiday, and the aforementioned Mr. Jones’s. 

To the degree that Tennessee was searching for another OL in this class, one would think that the addition of Mays ends that search.  5-star UGA commitment Broderick Jones had planned to officially visit Knoxville next weekend – the first one after the dead period ends – but that appears to be off.  Whether that was a decision made by Jones or by Tennessee (likely sensing that the chances of stealing Jones were low) is unknown and meaningless.  But with the strong likelihood that former commitment Kyree Miller ends up elsewhere (100% a Tennessee decision) and the Vols also having cancelled a previously planned OV for Jalen St John, it appears that Tennessee has closed the door on adding another OL in the 2020 class.  And considering the Vols signed a trio of really nice OL prospects in Cooper Mays, James Robinson, and Javontez Spraggins and then added Cade Mays, that’s smart roster management

In contrast, despite adding two bigtime WR prospects last month in Hyatt and Calloway to go with the two transfers, Tennessee is still in the market for another WR.  But while many thought that would be Rock Hill, SC native Ger-Cari Caldwell, there doesn’t seem to be a ton of traction on either/both sides there.  Instead, news broke on Friday that Tennessee will instead be hosting 4-star FSU commitment Malachi Wideman next weekend before Wideman trips to Oregon and then Florida Atlantic for his final two visits.  With Wideman having already taken his OV to FSU (as well as Washington State), the Vols could be in a strong position for the SI All-American and 247 Sports Top 140 prospect.  Wideman is a freak athlete whose strength on the gridiron comes from his elite size/athleticism combo, and his upside lies in the fact that he’s still raw when it comes to the technical aspects of the position.  He also happens to be a high level basketball player, so should the Vols seek to enlist Rick Barnes (ala the Dee Beckwith recruitment) that could be a feather in their cap here.  He’s the kind of prospect you make room for, period.  So it will be very interesting to see how this one shakes out.

Another potential transfer name to keep an eye on is former UGA LB/S Otis Reese.  Reese, who signed with the Bulldogs in the class of 2018 as a Top 100 prospect, entered the transfer portal last week.  He was recruited heavily by both Coach Jeremy Pruitt and DC Derrick Ansley when both were at Alabama, and also notably he hails from the same South Georgia high school (Lee Co.) as current Vol DL Aubrey Solomon.  Reese is a bit of a tweener, but was running with the 1’s for UGA last spring before contracting mono which set him back heavily.  Once that happened he was passed by in the depth chart by former 5-star Lewis Cine and that was that.  Regardless, he’s an elite athlete with a reputation as a bigtime hitter – the kind of talent even a heavily upgraded Tennessee roster could use.  There hasn’t been much said publicly about Reese’s future plans, but one would think the Vols will be a major player should they choose to be

Something You Don’t See Every Day

We all want to win. Even after a remarkable second half to the 2019 season and a six-game winning streak, we’re all tired of years without banners or bowls we’d never grow tired of talking about.

We want our players to do well. We wanted that for Dobbs and Barnett and Kamara and Jauan and Cordarrelle and everyone else who found bright spots in the last 10+ years, and all the ones who didn’t.

We’ll want to win next year, and we’ll want the players who make up the 2020 Vols to do well. But it’s been a long time since we’ll have wanted a Tennessee team to win because we wanted it this much for an individual.

There are great stories out there to be told. This could be especially true for Jarrett Guarantano going forward, his rags turning into greater riches than the fine folks at Taxslayer can afford. Every season tells a story.

But if Trey Smith is coming back, then (Fulmerized), we might as well win them all.

Trey and his inner circle – whoever he considers that to be – get to be the experts on his decision making, and I know it surprised many of us to hear that news today, delivered in an impeccable late-90’s Louisiana accent. There’s some line out there between fact and fable when we talk about him risking his life to play for us. But Trey and his circle always get to be the ones to decide where that line is. One fact he seems quite clear on:

Trey Smith would’ve been loved around here for a long time if he went pro, whether he became an NFL star or not. He entered new territory in that department today. And aside from our admiration for him playing at all and making this choice, now he’s got a chance to earn some rare accolades.

John Henderson and Will Overstreet both earned consecutive first-team All-SEC honors in 2000 and 2001. Since then, only one Vol – Eric Berry – has been named first-team All-SEC twice.

Charles McRae and Antone Davis were both first round draft picks in 1991. Since then, only one Vol offensive lineman – Ja’Wuan James – has been selected in the first round.

Trey Smith, number one in your hearts today and for a long time to come, can also be number one on a lot of other lists, and a lot of other “first time since”s.

And if one of the biggest questions for 2020 was, “Who leads?” Ding ding ding.

We always want to win. But today, by itself and especially as the culmination of everything after September, will take us to a set of expectations we haven’t enjoyed for a few years, thanks to a player we’ll want good things for more than any other in even longer.

Trey Smith is coming back. Might as well win.

Go Vols.

Predicting the national championship game using SPM comps

The LSU Tigers are currently 5.5-point favorites to beat the Clemson Tigers in Monday night’s national championship game. Honestly, if I went with my gut yesterday, I would have picked LSU to cover that spread without hesitation. I’ve watched them play. I’ve consistently underappreciated how prolific that offense is and misjudged how badly they’d beat good teams with good defenses. LSU to cover, probably big, amirite?

So I was surprised when I fired up the SPM this morning and it spit out a tie game. My first inclination was that something had gone wrong and that I was going to have to scrap the idea of doing an SPM National Championship preview post because I didn’t trust the results myself.

But looking at the details of why the SPM came to that conclusion — along with its performance over the course of the bowl season — made me re-think things. With one game left to play, the SPM is 25-15 (62.5%) for bowl season. We value Bill Connelly’s SP+ predictions as the gold standard we measure against around here, and even that is only 18-22 (45%) for bowl season. So I figured it’s worth taking a look at why the SPM doesn’t think LSU is a clear favorite Monday night against Clemson, and then we can all decide for ourselves whether or not to listen.

LSU Tigers vs. Clemson Tigers

From the perspective of LSU

LSU’s points:

  • LSU scoring offense for the season: 48.9
  • Clemson scoring defense for the season: 11.5

The Clemson scoring defense is most similar to the following prior LSU opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Georgia 12.6
  • Florida 15.5

LSU had no trouble against the Gators, scoring 42 points despite the fact that Florida allowed an average of only 12.6 points all season. The same is true with respect to Georgia: LSU scored 37 on the Bulldogs. When LSU plays a team with a defense like Clemson’s, its offense scores almost three times as many points as those teams usually give up. It’s not unreasonable to think that LSU can score 30 points against a really good Clemson defense. The SPM predicts 32.2 points for LSU.

Clemson’s points:

  • LSU scoring defense for the season: 21.6
  • Clemson scoring offense for the season: 45.3

The Clemson scoring offense is most similar to the following prior LSU opponent(s):

  • Alabama 47.2
  • Oklahoma 42.1

LSU couldn’t stop Alabama, which got 41 points against them, but they did pretty well against Oklahoma, which they held to only 28. Those are two quite different results against similar offenses. Taken together, it’s 77% of what those teams usually get; Oklahoma alone got only 67% of what it usually gets. That would make it 30-35 points for Clemson against LSU. The SPM puts it at 34.9 points for Clemson against LSU.

Estimated score: Clemson 34.9, LSU 32.2

From the perspective of Clemson

Clemson’s points:

  • Clemson scoring offense for the season: 45.3
  • LSU scoring defense for the season: 21.6

The LSU scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Clemson opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Texas A&M 22.5
  • North Carolina 23.7

Clemson scored 21 points against North Carolina and 24 points against Texas A&M. Basically, when the Clemson offense goes up against a defense like LSU’s, they generally get about what those teams usually give up. The SPM says that’s 21 points for Clemson against LSU.

LSU’s points:

  • Clemson scoring defense for the season: 11.5
  • LSU scoring offense for the season: 48.9

The LSU scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Clemson opponent(s):

  • Ohio State 46.9
  • Louisville 33.1

That Louisville comp is not especially helpful, but the Ohio State comp is. The Buckeyes got only 23 points against Clemson’s defense (49% of what they usually score). If that’s indicative, Clemson might just be able to hold LSU to half its usual point total, or 24 points. Because it includes the Louisville comp, the SPM says 21 points for LSU against Clemson, but I’m going to override it and call it 24.

Estimated score: LSU 24, Clemson 21

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

SPM Final estimated score: LSU 28.1, Clemson 28

SPM Final estimated spread: LSU -.1

Difference between the SPM and the current spread: 5.4

Eyeball adjustments

As I said in the opening paragraph, my gut pick is LSU to cover and probably to cover comfortably. But after looking at those numbers, “comfortably” is off the table for me and even covering is in question. If I had to make a pick, I’d say LSU does not cover, and I would no longer be surprised if Clemson won outright.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is LSU 31, Clemson 28.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, LSU is a 5.5-point favorite. With an over/under of 68.5 to 69.5, that translates to something like LSU 37, Clemson 32.

I have not yet seen Connelly’s SP+ prediction, but I’ll update once it’s available.

ESPN’s FPI gives . . . Clemson a 55.8% chance of winning.

Bottom line

The SPM thinks this is basically a pick ’em, so it does not like LSU to cover the 5.5-point spread. My gut — which likes LSU to cover comfortably — has been reined in by the machine, so I now like LSU to win, but only barely.

  • Vegas: LSU -5.5 (~LSU 37, Clemson 32)
  • SP+: TBD
  • SPM: LSU 28.1, Clemson 28 (LSU doesn’t cover)
  • Me: LSU 31, Clemson 28 (LSU doesn’t cover)
  • FPI: Clemson, 55.8% chance of winning

What do y’all think?

Tennessee 23 Indiana 22: The Greatest Hits

Bowls always get an unequal piece of the pie, with an aftertaste lasting well into the off-season. We shouldn’t put too much on their outcome, we know. But throughout this contest, it really did feel like so much of what we’ve bemoaned and so much of what we wanted to validate about this year and this program were front and center. As such, there’s some piece of all of these issues we’ll rightfully be talking about in the months ahead:

Red Zone Issues!

After Tennessee’s opening drive was blown up by a holding penalty on the first snap, the Vols’ next three drives had:

  • 1st-and-Goal at the 7
  • 1st-and-10 at the 13, followed by 2nd-and-3 at the 6
  • 1st-and-10 at the 13

And the Vols settled for a turnover on downs and two field goals.

We’ve got eight months to talk about Tennessee’s struggles in the red zone. We will use all the words. For all the good Tennessee actually did this season, they could’ve done even more with even average proficiency inside the 20. Instead, Tennessee ended the season scoring touchdowns (23) on less than half (47) of their red zone visits.

Had the Vols lost tonight, those three drives ending in only six points would’ve been culprit number one. Do not miss chances to put a team that might be happy to be there down three possessions.

Quarterback Drama!

Tennessee’s defense did everything right in the first half except stop Peyton Ramsey from scrambling when plays broke down. The Vols led 6-3 at halftime but had dominated statistically. The Hoosiers, to their credit, adjusted with a 12-play, 69-yard touchdown drive taking 5:31 off the clock to open the third quarter. Still, the box score showed no reason to worry. And Jauan Jennings was back!

Indiana knew it too.

A force to Jennings, whether by design or decision, led to Jarrett Guarantano’s second interception, this one returned to the house. Suddenly the Vols trailed 16-6 (thanks to a crucial missed extra point), and responded with…Brian Maurer.

It felt like a message-sending decision, right or wrong. Maurer, as he did at Florida several lifetimes ago, led the Vols downfield for three points while narrowly missing a couple of interceptions. Guarantano came right back in.

The Hoosiers – who deserve a lot of credit for doing plenty of little things in a game they were losing badly in the box score – nailed a 49-yard field goal to go back up 10. Guarantano went three-and-out. IU drove to 1st-and-10 at the Vol 16 yard line with 13 minutes to play. The Hoosiers’ win expectancy at this point via ESPN.com: 95.4%.

And then, they got cute: a give to Whop Philyor was blown up for a loss of seven, leading to another field goal and a 22-9 lead with 10:27 to play. And Guarantano went three-and-out again. IU’s win probability: 97.2%.

At this point, ye olde quarterback battle in spring practice was looking w-i-d-e open. It might still be, we’ll see. That’s still going to be a major talking point this off-season.

But Guarantano and the Vols weren’t dead yet.

Life From Death!

Tennessee got the ball back at their own 18 yard line with seven minutes to play. Some combination of Pruitt, Guarantano, and Jim Chaney made a simple adjustment: get your struggling quarterback going by checking it down to the running backs, with IU’s defense playing on its heels.

Coming in, Vol running backs had 26 catches in 12 games, 2.2 per contest. The first two plays of this drive went to Eric Gray underneath coverage for 34 yards. Then Jauan Jennings got in on the action for 22 more. Then it was back to the backs, this time Ty Chandler for eight more. On the night, Vol running backs caught six passes for 57 yards.

Tom Hart and Kenny Mayne have both mentioned on ESPN’s air that no team in college football had come back from down 13+ points with less than five minutes to go this season. After Jennings drew a pass interference call on 3rd-and-10, Quavaris Crouch punched it in from the one yard line to pull the Vols within six with 4:21 to play.

Onside kick? Onside kick.

Then Guarantano to Palmer, plus facemask, plus Eric Gray from 16 yards out for the lead.

When we’re discussing the plays of the year, there are a handful of candidates that might not get remembered when we’re looking back on this decade in 2029. But in putting this season back together, there were so many little moments that mattered much: Guarantano to Tyler Byrd against Mississippi State, the blocked punt against South Carolina, the third-and-fourth-down stops at Kentucky. That onside kick – decision and execution – belong on that list, and maybe atop it. I think Kentucky will end up being the best team Tennessee beat this year, so that probably tips the scales. You don’t get to January without going through Kentucky. But now that we’re here, this kick set the tone for the entire off-season.

Tennessee out-gained the Hoosiers 374 to 303. Indiana scored one offensive touchdown. It’s a game somewhere between Missouri and Kentucky on the “we should’ve won that by more” scale. It’s a semi-fun truth: for all the good Tennessee did in this winning streak, they could’ve played even better. That was certainly true tonight.

But as adversity, self-inflicted or otherwise, presented itself, this Tennessee team again rose to the occasion. They did it in new and dramatic fashion tonight, coming from behind in a way no other team has this season. And they did it showing the same fight that got us to Jacksonville in the first place.

We’ll spend the off-season picking apart the red zone choices and wondering what exactly is going to happen at quarterback. But we’ll spend it on a six-game winning streak at the end of an 8-5 season – the third-best since 2008 – because at the end of a season that once was lost and now is found, the Vols almost gave it away tonight, then roared back better than ever.

Never, ever a dull moment around here.

Go Vols.

Gator Bowl Preview: No Parking on the Bridge

New Year’s Day is one of my favorite holidays; I joke this time of year that many are spiritual in December’s holy days, but everyone is religious on January 1. It’s newness and grace on a calendar page. And there’s football!

January Matters.

In Tennessee’s upswing from 1989-2007, the Vols played in a traditional January bowl 15 times in 19 years. Tennessee stayed home in 2005, and caught back-to-back Peach Bowls in 2002 and 2003 (the latter was played on January 2, the only Peach/Chick-fil-A Bowl played in January between 1999 and its promotion to the College Football Playoff in 2014). And in December 1994, a freshman named Peyton Manning led the Vols to a 45-23 win over Virginia Tech in the Gator Bowl, which was played in The Swamp during construction on the Jacksonville Jaguars’ new stadium. That was the last of a four-year December run for the Gator Bowl, which returned to January the following season.

We rightfully hold up 1995-98 as Tennessee’s absolute peak: a 45-5 record in those four years was the best in college football, along with two SEC titles, a #2 finish in 1995, and a national championship. Extend it out to the “decade” of dominance from 1989-2001, when the Vols went 129-29-2 in 13 years, and that .813 winning percentage is the best in the SEC in that time (data via stassen.com). But Tennessee also had the best winning percentage in the SEC if you take it all the way to 1989-2007, decimal points ahead of the Gators (.7678) at 181-54-2 (.7679) in that 19-year run.

That math works out to around 10 wins a year in a 13-game season, 10.5 wins if you use the .813 percentage from 1989-2001. It was both expectation and celebration, and it almost always ended in January. We grew accustomed to starting the new year with football. And that, like many other things, has changed since 2008.

Let the (recent!) past die.

After appearing in traditional January 1 bowls 15 times in 19 years from 1989-2007, the Vols have been twice in the last dozen years. Tomorrow will make three.

Playing in any bowl game has become a 50/50 proposition: this season’s Gator Bowl is just the sixth time in these last twelve years Tennessee made the postseason at all. The Vols found their way to January following the 2014 (Gator) and 2015 (Outback) seasons, plus a pair of Music City Bowls and the December Chick-fil-A Bowl in Lane Kiffin’s 2009 season.

As is the case when you’re building a program, what you celebrate early shouldn’t be what you celebrate often. This year – especially this year, given how things looked in September – Tennessee making it to the Gator Bowl is a job well done. As we’ve been saying since May, if the Vols win, an 8-5 finish would be the third-best record of these last dozen years, bested only by a pair of 9-4’s from Butch Jones in 2015-16 that left so much more on the table.

The math is noteworthy for the 2019 team at the close of the decade as well: assigning the Gator Bowl outcome to the last decade will break a 62-62 tie for the Vols since 2010.

After having the SEC’s best winning percentage from 1989-2007, the Vols are 11th in the league from 2008-2019, besting only Arkansas, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. The 2010’s stick out like a sore thumb in Tennessee’s own past:

DecadeWLPct
2010s62620.500
2000s83440.654
1990s99220.818
1980s77370.675
1970s75390.658
1960s67320.677
1950s72310.699

Tennessee historically wins between 65-70% of its games, averaging around 8.75 wins per year in a 13-game season. Should the Vols return to their own historical precedent, an 8-5 season would be rightfully considered below average.

All of this is why it’s really interesting to me that this game comes at the landmark of a new decade. You can’t redeem a decade-plus of frustration by beating Indiana to get one game over .500 the last 10 years. But a win could be the last, best example of what has a chance to be the greatest legacy of the 2019 Vols.

And if you don’t love me now

When the Vols lost to Georgia State and BYU, we wrote that progress – the only thing that mattered this season – should be measured not to the top, but from the bottom. Remarkably, this team still found a way to put the third-best year of the last dozen back on the table.

All these years and all these words about getting “back” have usually been in reference to those peak years: the late 90’s, or even that “decade” of dominance. But Tennessee is still trying to get back to being Tennessee: a program that can call a nine-win season average, allowing us to realistically hope for something more every fall and play football most Januaries.

This team, at the end of this decade, fought their way from its lowest point. And if Jeremy Pruitt and the Vols return to Tennessee’s historical success in the next decade, this group can forever be remembered as a bridge between the two, and one of the most important links in the Volunteer chain.

It’s true for those who will play their final game in a Tennessee uniform against Indiana: Jennings and Callaway, Bituli and Taylor, Nigel Warrior and probably Trey Smith. And it’s true for those who have a chance to shine tomorrow and even brighter in 2020: Jarrett Guarantano, a host of running backs, freshmen who aren’t freshmen anymore, and guys like Bryce Thompson who are one game away from being the upperclassmen leaders.

We’ve seen a lot of new and unusual in these last ten years, perhaps nothing on the field more so than these last twelve games. Against the odds, this team won their way to a thirteenth opportunity in January. They are, like all who wear orange, tied to Tennessee’s past. And they are laying the foundation for a better future, with one opportunity left.

It’s a new year, and Tennessee is playing football in January. So far, so good.

Go Vols.

Tennessee-Indiana: Head-to-head statistical rankings

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Indiana Hoosiers. Bottom line for this week: Don’t take Indiana lightly, especially the Hoosiers defense or their offensive passing attack. But if the Vols offense can find success in the passing game and the defense can force a one-dimensional attack into long third downs and then win those plays, Tennessee should be able to win.

Details below.

When the Vols have the ball

Where’s the opportunity?

It looks like maybe the Tennessee Volunteers offense is going to have to jab these guys a few times to see what they’re made of. The Hoosiers defense generally has better numbers than the Volunteers offense, but only because mediocre beats bad, and those bad numbers are season-long accumulations that don’t really reflect what the Vols offense has become late in the season. Indiana does not appear to be a threat to intercept the ball, and they’re very generous in the red zone. That, combined with Tennessee’s o-line able to protect Jarrett Guarantano pretty well, says to me that the best opportunity to explore first for the Vols offense is in the passing game.

Where’s the danger?

Overall, Indiana’s total defense numbers are much, much better than the Vols’ total offense numbers. The Hoosiers are particularly good on first down, so expect some challenges there unless Jim Chaney busts out some plays that both break tendencies and work.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Careful with these guys. Indiana’s not known for football, but they’re a good team this year, particularly on defense. We should find out fairly early if and how much of a difference there is between third in the SEC East and fourth in the Big 10 East. Let’s hope there is a difference and that it is significant. If not, Tennessee will need to devote some time early to discovering what works and what doesn’t. I’m assuming Tennessee will roll out a balanced attack, but I’m also expecting most of any success to come through the air.

Vols on defense

Where’s the opportunity?

Season-long statistics suggest that the Indiana offense and the Tennessee defense are pretty evenly matched overall. However, those numbers also suggest that Indiana is one-dimensional, that the Hoosiers either don’t want to or can’t run the ball very well. Jeremy Pruitt and Derrick Ansley should have an advantage over a one-dimensional team, and if Indiana just chucks it up there too many times, Tennessee’s got the ability to get some picks.

Where’s the danger?

Indiana’s passing offense is Top 15 in the nation, and even though Tennessee’s ability to minimize passing yards is just outside the Top 15, if the Hoosiers get into a groove through the air, it could spell trouble. They’re especially good on third downs, so getting off the field on defense will be especially important.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

The first order of business is to establish that Indiana’s offensive attack is one-dimensional and that the running game isn’t the primary threat. Once that’s done, they should be able to redirect some resources to pass defense. Force Indiana into long and dangerous third-down situations where the Vols DBs will have interception opportunities. If you can’t create turnovers, at least get off the field and give the ball back to the offense.

Special teams

Marquez Calloway has a huge opportunity to impact the game with his punt return ability Thursday.

Turnovers and penalties

Wow. These guys look really undisciplined in the penalty categories. They do appear to be better at causing and recovering fumbles.

See also

Predicting the Tennessee-Indiana game using SPM comps