With a lot of news to digest, from the transfer of skill
players RB/WR Miles Jones and WR Velus Jones as well as OL Cade Mays, to the decision of
All-American OL Trey Smith, a few
thoughts below on how that might affect Tennessee’s approach to the February
signing period:
With those transfers, Tennessee has now added 23 players in
the 2020 class, leaving two spots before any monkeying with the numbers. It’s not breaking news to say that DL Jay Hardy and ATH DeeBeckwith have those spots
locked up should they want them and that whoever else might want in will be
dependent on said numbers machinations.
A quick thought on Beckwith: Although this writer has been a
bit critical of his apparent love for basketball, perhaps to the detriment of
his future in football, that opinion has changed somewhat as his focus seems to
have narrowed back to football. Further,
and more importantly, watching how Florida (his other finalist) featured a *very*
similar player in TE Kyle Pitts as
almost the focal point of its offense, his value as a prospect has
increased. Were Tennessee to land Beckwith
(who visits Tennessee January 31st after tripping to UK and UF) and
develop him into a player like Pitts, that would be massive for an offense that
continues to evolve with multiple different kinds of players, from big-bodied WRs
like Josh Palmer to speed demons
like Jalin Hyatt to more Swiss Army types
like Jimmy Calloway, Jimmy Holiday, and the aforementioned
Mr. Jones’s.
To the degree that Tennessee was searching for another OL in
this class, one would think that the addition of Mays ends that search. 5-star UGA commitment Broderick Jones had planned to officially visit Knoxville next weekend
– the first one after the dead period ends – but that appears to be off. Whether that was a decision made by Jones or
by Tennessee (likely sensing that the chances of stealing Jones were low) is
unknown and meaningless. But with the
strong likelihood that former commitment Kyree
Miller ends up elsewhere (100% a Tennessee decision) and the Vols also having
cancelled a previously planned OV for Jalen
St John, it appears that Tennessee has closed the door on adding another OL
in the 2020 class. And considering the
Vols signed a trio of really nice OL prospects in Cooper Mays, JamesRobinson,
and Javontez Spraggins and then
added Cade Mays, that’s smart roster management
In contrast, despite adding two bigtime WR prospects last
month in Hyatt and Calloway to go with the two transfers, Tennessee is still in
the market for another WR. But while
many thought that would be Rock Hill, SC native Ger-Cari Caldwell, there doesn’t seem to be a ton of traction on either/both
sides there. Instead, news broke on Friday
that Tennessee will instead be hosting 4-star FSU commitment Malachi Wideman next weekend before
Wideman trips to Oregon and then Florida Atlantic for his final two
visits. With Wideman having already
taken his OV to FSU (as well as Washington State), the Vols could be in a
strong position for the SI
All-American and 247 Sports Top 140 prospect. Wideman is a freak athlete whose strength on
the gridiron comes from his elite size/athleticism combo, and his upside lies
in the fact that he’s still raw when it comes to the technical aspects of the
position. He also happens to be a high
level basketball player, so should the Vols seek to enlist Rick Barnes (ala the
Dee Beckwith recruitment) that could be a feather in their cap here. He’s the kind of prospect you make room for,
period. So it will be very interesting to
see how this one shakes out.
Another potential transfer name to keep an eye on is former UGA LB/S Otis Reese. Reese, who signed with the Bulldogs in the class of 2018 as a Top 100 prospect, entered the transfer portal last week. He was recruited heavily by both Coach Jeremy Pruitt and DC Derrick Ansley when both were at Alabama, and also notably he hails from the same South Georgia high school (Lee Co.) as current Vol DL Aubrey Solomon. Reese is a bit of a tweener, but was running with the 1’s for UGA last spring before contracting mono which set him back heavily. Once that happened he was passed by in the depth chart by former 5-star Lewis Cine and that was that. Regardless, he’s an elite athlete with a reputation as a bigtime hitter – the kind of talent even a heavily upgraded Tennessee roster could use. There hasn’t been much said publicly about Reese’s future plans, but one would think the Vols will be a major player should they choose to be
We all want to win. Even after a remarkable second half to the 2019 season and a six-game winning streak, we’re all tired of years without banners or bowls we’d never grow tired of talking about.
We want our players to do well. We wanted that for Dobbs and Barnett and Kamara and Jauan and Cordarrelle and everyone else who found bright spots in the last 10+ years, and all the ones who didn’t.
We’ll want to win next year, and we’ll want the players who make up the 2020 Vols to do well. But it’s been a long time since we’ll have wanted a Tennessee team to win because we wanted it this much for an individual.
There are great stories out there to be told. This could be especially true for Jarrett Guarantano going forward, his rags turning into greater riches than the fine folks at Taxslayer can afford. Every season tells a story.
But if Trey Smith is coming back, then (Fulmerized), we might as well win them all.
Trey and his inner circle – whoever he considers that to be – get to be the experts on his decision making, and I know it surprised many of us to hear that news today, delivered in an impeccable late-90’s Louisiana accent. There’s some line out there between fact and fable when we talk about him risking his life to play for us. But Trey and his circle always get to be the ones to decide where that line is. One fact he seems quite clear on:
Trey Smith on why he's returning to school: I left some money on the field. There are some things I can be better at. I want to attack those areas.
Trey Smith would’ve been loved around here for a long time if he went pro, whether he became an NFL star or not. He entered new territory in that department today. And aside from our admiration for him playing at all and making this choice, now he’s got a chance to earn some rare accolades.
John Henderson and Will Overstreet both earned consecutive first-team All-SEC honors in 2000 and 2001. Since then, only one Vol – Eric Berry – has been named first-team All-SEC twice.
Charles McRae and Antone Davis were both first round draft picks in 1991. Since then, only one Vol offensive lineman – Ja’Wuan James – has been selected in the first round.
Trey Smith, number one in your hearts today and for a long time to come, can also be number one on a lot of other lists, and a lot of other “first time since”s.
And if one of the biggest questions for 2020 was, “Who leads?” Ding ding ding.
We always want to win. But today, by itself and especially as the culmination of everything after September, will take us to a set of expectations we haven’t enjoyed for a few years, thanks to a player we’ll want good things for more than any other in even longer.
The LSU Tigers are currently 5.5-point favorites to beat the Clemson Tigers in Monday night’s national championship game. Honestly, if I went with my gut yesterday, I would have picked LSU to cover that spread without hesitation. I’ve watched them play. I’ve consistently underappreciated how prolific that offense is and misjudged how badly they’d beat good teams with good defenses. LSU to cover, probably big, amirite?
So I was surprised when I fired up the SPM this morning and it spit out a tie game. My first inclination was that something had gone wrong and that I was going to have to scrap the idea of doing an SPM National Championship preview post because I didn’t trust the results myself.
But looking at the details of why the SPM came to that conclusion — along with its performance over the course of the bowl season — made me re-think things. With one game left to play, the SPM is 25-15 (62.5%) for bowl season. We value Bill Connelly’s SP+ predictions as the gold standard we measure against around here, and even that is only 18-22 (45%) for bowl season. So I figured it’s worth taking a look at why the SPM doesn’t think LSU is a clear favorite Monday night against Clemson, and then we can all decide for ourselves whether or not to listen.
LSU Tigers vs. Clemson Tigers
From the perspective of LSU
LSU’s points:
LSU scoring offense for the season: 48.9
Clemson scoring defense for the season: 11.5
The Clemson scoring defense is most similar to the following prior LSU opponent(s) (FBS only):
Georgia 12.6
Florida 15.5
LSU had no trouble against the Gators, scoring 42 points despite the fact that Florida allowed an average of only 12.6 points all season. The same is true with respect to Georgia: LSU scored 37 on the Bulldogs. When LSU plays a team with a defense like Clemson’s, its offense scores almost three times as many points as those teams usually give up. It’s not unreasonable to think that LSU can score 30 points against a really good Clemson defense. The SPM predicts 32.2points for LSU.
Clemson’s points:
LSU scoring defense for the season: 21.6
Clemson scoring offense for the season: 45.3
The Clemson scoring offense is most similar to the following prior LSU opponent(s):
Alabama 47.2
Oklahoma 42.1
LSU couldn’t stop Alabama, which got 41 points against them, but they did pretty well against Oklahoma, which they held to only 28. Those are two quite different results against similar offenses. Taken together, it’s 77% of what those teams usually get; Oklahoma alone got only 67% of what it usually gets. That would make it 30-35 points for Clemson against LSU. The SPM puts it at 34.9 points for Clemson against LSU.
Estimated score: Clemson 34.9, LSU 32.2
From the perspective of Clemson
Clemson’s points:
Clemson scoring offense for the season: 45.3
LSU scoring defense for the season: 21.6
The LSU scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Clemson opponent(s) (FBS only):
Texas A&M 22.5
North Carolina 23.7
Clemson scored 21 points against North Carolina and 24 points against Texas A&M. Basically, when the Clemson offense goes up against a defense like LSU’s, they generally get about what those teams usually give up. The SPM says that’s 21 points for Clemson against LSU.
LSU’s points:
Clemson scoring defense for the season: 11.5
LSU scoring offense for the season: 48.9
The LSU scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Clemson opponent(s):
Ohio State 46.9
Louisville 33.1
That Louisville comp is not especially helpful, but the Ohio State comp is. The Buckeyes got only 23 points against Clemson’s defense (49% of what they usually score). If that’s indicative, Clemson might just be able to hold LSU to half its usual point total, or 24 points. Because it includes the Louisville comp, the SPM says 21 points for LSU against Clemson, but I’m going to override it and call it 24.
Estimated score: LSU 24, Clemson 21
SPM Final Estimates
Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:
SPM Final estimated score: LSU 28.1, Clemson 28
SPM Final estimated spread: LSU -.1
Difference between the SPM and the current spread: 5.4
Eyeball adjustments
As I said in the opening paragraph, my gut pick is LSU to cover and probably to cover comfortably. But after looking at those numbers, “comfortably” is off the table for me and even covering is in question. If I had to make a pick, I’d say LSU does not cover, and I would no longer be surprised if Clemson won outright.
So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is LSU 31, Clemson 28.
Other predictions from other systems
As I said before, LSU is a 5.5-point favorite. With an over/under of 68.5 to 69.5, that translates to something like LSU 37, Clemson 32.
I have not yet seen Connelly’s SP+ prediction, but I’ll update once it’s available.
The SPM thinks this is basically a pick ’em, so it does not like LSU to cover the 5.5-point spread. My gut — which likes LSU to cover comfortably — has been reined in by the machine, so I now like LSU to win, but only barely.
Bowls always get an unequal piece of the pie, with an aftertaste lasting well into the off-season. We shouldn’t put too much on their outcome, we know. But throughout this contest, it really did feel like so much of what we’ve bemoaned and so much of what we wanted to validate about this year and this program were front and center. As such, there’s some piece of all of these issues we’ll rightfully be talking about in the months ahead:
Red Zone Issues!
After Tennessee’s opening drive was blown up by a holding penalty on the first snap, the Vols’ next three drives had:
1st-and-Goal at the 7
1st-and-10 at the 13, followed by 2nd-and-3 at the 6
1st-and-10 at the 13
And the Vols settled for a turnover on downs and two field goals.
We’ve got eight months to talk about Tennessee’s struggles in the red zone. We will use all the words. For all the good Tennessee actually did this season, they could’ve done even more with even average proficiency inside the 20. Instead, Tennessee ended the season scoring touchdowns (23) on less than half (47) of their red zone visits.
Had the Vols lost tonight, those three drives ending in only six points would’ve been culprit number one. Do not miss chances to put a team that might be happy to be there down three possessions.
Quarterback Drama!
Tennessee’s defense did everything right in the first half except stop Peyton Ramsey from scrambling when plays broke down. The Vols led 6-3 at halftime but had dominated statistically. The Hoosiers, to their credit, adjusted with a 12-play, 69-yard touchdown drive taking 5:31 off the clock to open the third quarter. Still, the box score showed no reason to worry. And Jauan Jennings was back!
Indiana knew it too.
A force to Jennings, whether by design or decision, led to Jarrett Guarantano’s second interception, this one returned to the house. Suddenly the Vols trailed 16-6 (thanks to a crucial missed extra point), and responded with…Brian Maurer.
It felt like a message-sending decision, right or wrong. Maurer, as he did at Florida several lifetimes ago, led the Vols downfield for three points while narrowly missing a couple of interceptions. Guarantano came right back in.
The Hoosiers – who deserve a lot of credit for doing plenty of little things in a game they were losing badly in the box score – nailed a 49-yard field goal to go back up 10. Guarantano went three-and-out. IU drove to 1st-and-10 at the Vol 16 yard line with 13 minutes to play. The Hoosiers’ win expectancy at this point via ESPN.com: 95.4%.
And then, they got cute: a give to Whop Philyor was blown up for a loss of seven, leading to another field goal and a 22-9 lead with 10:27 to play. And Guarantano went three-and-out again. IU’s win probability: 97.2%.
At this point, ye olde quarterback battle in spring practice was looking w-i-d-e open. It might still be, we’ll see. That’s still going to be a major talking point this off-season.
But Guarantano and the Vols weren’t dead yet.
Life From Death!
Tennessee got the ball back at their own 18 yard line with seven minutes to play. Some combination of Pruitt, Guarantano, and Jim Chaney made a simple adjustment: get your struggling quarterback going by checking it down to the running backs, with IU’s defense playing on its heels.
Coming in, Vol running backs had 26 catches in 12 games, 2.2 per contest. The first two plays of this drive went to Eric Gray underneath coverage for 34 yards. Then Jauan Jennings got in on the action for 22 more. Then it was back to the backs, this time Ty Chandler for eight more. On the night, Vol running backs caught six passes for 57 yards.
Tom Hart and Kenny Mayne have both mentioned on ESPN’s air that no team in college football had come back from down 13+ points with less than five minutes to go this season. After Jennings drew a pass interference call on 3rd-and-10, Quavaris Crouch punched it in from the one yard line to pull the Vols within six with 4:21 to play.
Then Guarantano to Palmer, plus facemask, plus Eric Gray from 16 yards out for the lead.
When we’re discussing the plays of the year, there are a handful of candidates that might not get remembered when we’re looking back on this decade in 2029. But in putting this season back together, there were so many little moments that mattered much: Guarantano to Tyler Byrd against Mississippi State, the blocked punt against South Carolina, the third-and-fourth-down stops at Kentucky. That onside kick – decision and execution – belong on that list, and maybe atop it. I think Kentucky will end up being the best team Tennessee beat this year, so that probably tips the scales. You don’t get to January without going through Kentucky. But now that we’re here, this kick set the tone for the entire off-season.
Tennessee out-gained the Hoosiers 374 to 303. Indiana scored one offensive touchdown. It’s a game somewhere between Missouri and Kentucky on the “we should’ve won that by more” scale. It’s a semi-fun truth: for all the good Tennessee did in this winning streak, they could’ve played even better. That was certainly true tonight.
But as adversity, self-inflicted or otherwise, presented itself, this Tennessee team again rose to the occasion. They did it in new and dramatic fashion tonight, coming from behind in a way no other team has this season. And they did it showing the same fight that got us to Jacksonville in the first place.
We’ll spend the off-season picking apart the red zone choices and wondering what exactly is going to happen at quarterback. But we’ll spend it on a six-game winning streak at the end of an 8-5 season – the third-best since 2008 – because at the end of a season that once was lost and now is found, the Vols almost gave it away tonight, then roared back better than ever.
New Year’s Day is one of my favorite holidays; I joke this time of year that many are spiritual in December’s holy days, but everyone is religious on January 1. It’s newness and grace on a calendar page. And there’s football!
January Matters.
In Tennessee’s upswing from 1989-2007, the Vols played in a traditional January bowl 15 times in 19 years. Tennessee stayed home in 2005, and caught back-to-back Peach Bowls in 2002 and 2003 (the latter was played on January 2, the only Peach/Chick-fil-A Bowl played in January between 1999 and its promotion to the College Football Playoff in 2014). And in December 1994, a freshman named Peyton Manning led the Vols to a 45-23 win over Virginia Tech in the Gator Bowl, which was played in The Swamp during construction on the Jacksonville Jaguars’ new stadium. That was the last of a four-year December run for the Gator Bowl, which returned to January the following season.
We rightfully hold up 1995-98 as Tennessee’s absolute peak: a 45-5 record in those four years was the best in college football, along with two SEC titles, a #2 finish in 1995, and a national championship. Extend it out to the “decade” of dominance from 1989-2001, when the Vols went 129-29-2 in 13 years, and that .813 winning percentage is the best in the SEC in that time (data via stassen.com). But Tennessee also had the best winning percentage in the SEC if you take it all the way to 1989-2007, decimal points ahead of the Gators (.7678) at 181-54-2 (.7679) in that 19-year run.
That math works out to around 10 wins a year in a 13-game season, 10.5 wins if you use the .813 percentage from 1989-2001. It was both expectation and celebration, and it almost always ended in January. We grew accustomed to starting the new year with football. And that, like many other things, has changed since 2008.
Let the (recent!) past die.
After appearing in traditional January 1 bowls 15 times in 19 years from 1989-2007, the Vols have been twice in the last dozen years. Tomorrow will make three.
Playing in any bowl game has become a 50/50 proposition: this season’s Gator Bowl is just the sixth time in these last twelve years Tennessee made the postseason at all. The Vols found their way to January following the 2014 (Gator) and 2015 (Outback) seasons, plus a pair of Music City Bowls and the December Chick-fil-A Bowl in Lane Kiffin’s 2009 season.
As is the case when you’re building a program, what you celebrate early shouldn’t be what you celebrate often. This year – especially this year, given how things looked in September – Tennessee making it to the Gator Bowl is a job well done. As we’ve been saying since May, if the Vols win, an 8-5 finish would be the third-best record of these last dozen years, bested only by a pair of 9-4’s from Butch Jones in 2015-16 that left so much more on the table.
The math is noteworthy for the 2019 team at the close of the decade as well: assigning the Gator Bowl outcome to the last decade will break a 62-62 tie for the Vols since 2010.
After having the SEC’s best winning percentage from 1989-2007, the Vols are 11th in the league from 2008-2019, besting only Arkansas, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. The 2010’s stick out like a sore thumb in Tennessee’s own past:
Decade
W
L
Pct
2010s
62
62
0.500
2000s
83
44
0.654
1990s
99
22
0.818
1980s
77
37
0.675
1970s
75
39
0.658
1960s
67
32
0.677
1950s
72
31
0.699
Tennessee historically wins between 65-70% of its games, averaging around 8.75 wins per year in a 13-game season. Should the Vols return to their own historical precedent, an 8-5 season would be rightfully considered below average.
All of this is why it’s really interesting to me that this game comes at the landmark of a new decade. You can’t redeem a decade-plus of frustration by beating Indiana to get one game over .500 the last 10 years. But a win could be the last, best example of what has a chance to be the greatest legacy of the 2019 Vols.
And if you don’t love me now
When the Vols lost to Georgia State and BYU, we wrote that progress – the only thing that mattered this season – should be measured not to the top, but from the bottom. Remarkably, this team still found a way to put the third-best year of the last dozen back on the table.
All these years and all these words about getting “back” have usually been in reference to those peak years: the late 90’s, or even that “decade” of dominance. But Tennessee is still trying to get back to being Tennessee: a program that can call a nine-win season average, allowing us to realistically hope for something more every fall and play football most Januaries.
This team, at the end of this decade, fought their way from its lowest point. And if Jeremy Pruitt and the Vols return to Tennessee’s historical success in the next decade, this group can forever be remembered as a bridge between the two, and one of the most important links in the Volunteer chain.
It’s true for those who will play their final game in a Tennessee uniform against Indiana: Jennings and Callaway, Bituli and Taylor, Nigel Warrior and probably Trey Smith. And it’s true for those who have a chance to shine tomorrow and even brighter in 2020: Jarrett Guarantano, a host of running backs, freshmen who aren’t freshmen anymore, and guys like Bryce Thompson who are one game away from being the upperclassmen leaders.
We’ve seen a lot of new and unusual in these last ten years, perhaps nothing on the field more so than these last twelve games. Against the odds, this team won their way to a thirteenth opportunity in January. They are, like all who wear orange, tied to Tennessee’s past. And they are laying the foundation for a better future, with one opportunity left.
It’s a new year, and Tennessee is playing football in January. So far, so good.
Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Indiana Hoosiers. Bottom line for this week: Don’t take Indiana lightly, especially the Hoosiers defense or their offensive passing attack. But if the Vols offense can find success in the passing game and the defense can force a one-dimensional attack into long third downs and then win those plays, Tennessee should be able to win.
Details below.
When the Vols have the ball
Where’s the opportunity?
It looks like maybe the Tennessee Volunteers offense is going to have to jab these guys a few times to see what they’re made of. The Hoosiers defense generally has better numbers than the Volunteers offense, but only because mediocre beats bad, and those bad numbers are season-long accumulations that don’t really reflect what the Vols offense has become late in the season. Indiana does not appear to be a threat to intercept the ball, and they’re very generous in the red zone. That, combined with Tennessee’s o-line able to protect Jarrett Guarantano pretty well, says to me that the best opportunity to explore first for the Vols offense is in the passing game.
Where’s the danger?
Overall, Indiana’s total defense numbers are much, much better than the Vols’ total offense numbers. The Hoosiers are particularly good on first down, so expect some challenges there unless Jim Chaney busts out some plays that both break tendencies and work.
Gameplan for the Vols on offense
Careful with these guys. Indiana’s not known for football, but they’re a good team this year, particularly on defense. We should find out fairly early if and how much of a difference there is between third in the SEC East and fourth in the Big 10 East. Let’s hope there is a difference and that it is significant. If not, Tennessee will need to devote some time early to discovering what works and what doesn’t. I’m assuming Tennessee will roll out a balanced attack, but I’m also expecting most of any success to come through the air.
Vols on defense
Where’s the opportunity?
Season-long statistics suggest that the Indiana offense and the Tennessee defense are pretty evenly matched overall. However, those numbers also suggest that Indiana is one-dimensional, that the Hoosiers either don’t want to or can’t run the ball very well. Jeremy Pruitt and Derrick Ansley should have an advantage over a one-dimensional team, and if Indiana just chucks it up there too many times, Tennessee’s got the ability to get some picks.
Where’s the danger?
Indiana’s passing offense is Top 15 in the nation, and even though Tennessee’s ability to minimize passing yards is just outside the Top 15, if the Hoosiers get into a groove through the air, it could spell trouble. They’re especially good on third downs, so getting off the field on defense will be especially important.
Gameplan for the Vols on defense
The first order of business is to establish that Indiana’s offensive attack is one-dimensional and that the running game isn’t the primary threat. Once that’s done, they should be able to redirect some resources to pass defense. Force Indiana into long and dangerous third-down situations where the Vols DBs will have interception opportunities. If you can’t create turnovers, at least get off the field and give the ball back to the offense.
Special teams
Marquez Calloway has a huge opportunity to impact the game with his punt return ability Thursday.
Turnovers and penalties
Wow. These guys look really undisciplined in the penalty categories. They do appear to be better at causing and recovering fumbles.
As discussed
last week, Tennessee’s 9th ranked recruiting class (per Rivals) was
not only strong in its own right but also served to both widen the gap between
the Vols and programs below them in the SEC East and also at worst maintain the
status quo between them and Georgia and especially Florida. That said, there is a narrative that serves
to discount the meaningfulness of Tennessee’s ranking that misses a number of
important points. That story is that
because Tennessee’s class is “only” 7th in the SEC (behind Alabama,
LSU, Georgia, Texas A&M, Florida, and Auburn) that means the Vols are stuck
in mediocrity within the SEC and even nationally, which is not only false but
shortsighted. To wit:
Point I: Before one
can get to comparing Tennessee’s class to anyone else’s in the conference, it
simply must be reiterated that Coach Jeremy Pruitt had a monumental task of
roster building when he took the job in December 2017. The talent level across the board was way
down (as evidenced by Tennessee having ZERO draftees in the 2019 NFL draft) as
were the overall numbers relative to the 85-man scholarship limit. So simply following up last year’s #12
class in 247 Sports’ enrolled rankings
(which Rivals does not have, thus the change of recruiting service) with a Top
10 nationally ranked class is a huge deal.
Pruitt needs to keep stacking up these types of classes – filled with
difference makers at multiple positions and very few if any reaches – in order
to build Tennessee back into a true title contender. And then of course continue to develop that
talent like he has so far. And this was
a step no matter how many other SEC schools are also in the Top 10
Point II: Florida, Tennessee’s arch nemesis, also had a strong class. Using the same Rivals rankings, the Gators’ 24-man class finished 7th in the country with one 5-star and thirteen 4-stars and an average star ranking of 3.58, while Tennessee’s 23-man class finished 9th overall with zero 5-stars (pending QB Harrison Bailey’s deserved 5th) and thirteen 4-stars and an average star ranking of 3.52. The classes are almost exactly equal to each other using these objective metrics, effectively meaning that the idea that Tennessee finished “behind” Florida is while technically true in reality meaningless. Further, when comparing Pruitt’s two whole classes to Gators Coach Dan Mullen’s, Tennessee has two more players on its roster from the 2019 class than does Florida, who lost its top-rated 2019 signee and three 4-stars before the 2019 season began. One could very easily make the case that between the two classes Tennessee has more talent on its 2020 roster than do the Gators
Two-year average ranking (2019 enrolled, 2020 Early Signing
Day)
Tennessee: #10.5
average rank (#12 + #9)
2019:22 signed, 2 out – Melvin McBride and Jerrod Means, 2
transfers in (Aubrey Solomon and Deangelo Gibss, with one and two more seasons
of eligibility remaining, respectively); 22
net for 2020 season
Florida: #12
average rank (#17+#7)
2019: 24 signed, 3 never enrolled, 2 transferred out before
the season (including its one 5-star as well as three 4-stars), 2 transfers in
(Jon Greenard, now out of eligibility, and Brenton Cox, 2 years to play); 20 net for the 2020 season
Point III:
Tennessee doesn’t play Texas A&M, Auburn, or LSU except for once every
eight years unless it meets one of them in the SEC Championship Game. So being behind those schools in terms of
recruiting ranking is effectively akin to being behind Clemson or Ohio State –
if you’re seeing one those schools on the field it very likely means you’ve had
an incredible season and your program has accumulated enough talent and
developed that talent well enough that a single year’s recruiting ranking
variance is fairly meaningless.
Point IV: Following
Point III, Tennessee’s top three competitors in the SEC East – Georgia,
Florida, and to a much lesser extent South Carolina, actually DO play Auburn, LSU,
and Texas A&M, respectively every season.
Therefore, those programs gobbling up talent is actually a good thing for Tennessee as it makes it
more likely that they deal UT’s East rivals a loss.
Point V: Tennessee’s
class would have ranked #2 in the Big 10, #2 in the ACC, and #1 in both the Big
12 and Pac10. Does that matter, when
Tennessee isn’t in those conferences?
Well, the SEC got one team in the College Football Playoff (a step down
from the two the conference has gotten in the recent past) and two teams in NY6
bowls. Alabama, long the king of college
football and the SEC, is not one of these three teams but is still playing in
the highly acclaimed Citrus Bowl at 10-2 and Auburn at 9-3is in the Outback Bowl.
Point being,
Point VI: Further
to Point V, compare Tennessee’s #9 class with that of its next four Power Five
nonconference opponents and decide for yourself if that ranking will matter for
the Vols:
2020 (probably too soon for the 2020 class to really
matter): Oklahoma #12
2021 Pittsburgh #47
2022 Pittsburgh #47
2023 BYU #82
So while Tennessee could conceivably move up in the final rankings if it manages to close out with some of its targets – namely Auburn commitment DL Jay Hardy and Jumbo ATH Dee Beckwith – the 2020 class is already one that has added substantially more talent and depth to the program. And regardless of who sits in the eight spots in front, that’s a meaningful win for the Vols program.
Nothing is ever perfect, and despite a helluva day for Coach Jeremy Pruitt and the Vols on Wednesday there are certain things that you know a coach as maniacally focused on recruiting as he is will look to improve. Along with perhaps upgrading the staff from a recruiting perspective, from this vantage point one thing Tennessee should look at is the amount of official visits used in the spring and summer. With the advent of the Early Signing Period in the class of 2018, using official visits earlier and earlier in the cycle has become more commonplace. And that makes sense – schools are looking to lock down their top targets early, some kids want to finish the recruiting process early, and in particular spring games and thematic weekends (cookouts, paint ball, pool parties, etc) during the summer are showcase weekends to host official visitors. That said, when looking at who Tennessee has brought in for official visits during the spring and summer for the classes of 2019 and 2020 (Pruitt’s two opportunities) those OV weekends have been, objectively speaking, failures. Take a look below:
Class of 2019
April 18th (Orange and White Game)
Wanya Morris (signed with Tennessee)
Khris Bogle (signed with Florida)
Bryce Beinhart (signed with Nebraska)
Jalen Curry (signed with Arizona)
April 27th
Anthony Bradford (signed with LSU)
June 1st
Warren Burrell (signed with Tennessee)
June 8th
Trezeman Marshall (signed with UGA)
Mike Morris (signed with Michigan)
So, for the class of 2019, Tennessee brought eight
prospects in for OVs during the spring and summer and signed two of them, a 25%
hit rate. Not only that, but the Vols
were deep in the recruitments for both Bogle and Marshall until the bitter end,
but both took very late OVs to the schools they respectively signed with
whereas Tennessee had used its OV over a half year before they each signed.
Class of 2020
April 12th (Orange & White Game)
Dominic Bailey (signed with Tennessee)
Deontae Craig (signed with Iowa)
EJ Williams (signed with Clemson)
Kitan Crawford (signed with Texas)
Justin Rogers (signed with Kentucky)
Cooper Mays (signed with Tennessee)
June 7th
Mordecai McDaniel (Committed to UT in August
but flipped to UF)
Haynes King (signed with Texas A&M)
June 14th (Pool Party)
James Robinson (signed with Tennessee)
Xavier Hill (signed with LSU)
Darrion Henry (signed with OSU)
Ty Jordan (signed with Utah)
Kourt Williams (signed with OSU)
June 21st
Blayne Toll (signed with Arkansas)
Rakim Jarrett (signed with Maryland after flipping
from LSU)
Caziah Holmes (signed with PSU)
Chris Morris (signed with Texas A&M)
Richie Leonard (signed with UF)
After batting 25% (2/8) in 2019 on spring/summer
official visits, Tennessee did even worse in 2020 signing three of the eighteen
official visitors for a 17% hit rate.
And one of those commitments (Bailey) was already committed when he took
his OV to Tennessee, and another (Mays) was a very heavy lean when he took his
OV. That’s…not good. Now, in both years Tennessee chose not to
heavily pursue some of these prospects and two other caveats to this exercise are
1) sometimes a prospect says I want to take my OV now and you have no choices so
you take your shot and hope for the best (e.g., EJ Williams), and 2) some of the
above were likely always going to the schools they ended up with (e.g., Darrion Henry). But even considering all of that, this
strategy objectively has not worked for Pruitt and Tennessee.
Therefore, this should be addressed starting with the class of 2021 cycle. The Orange and White Game weekend is a fantastic weekend to have prospects see Knoxville, Tennessee’s campus, and Vol Nation in all its glory. And themed weekends during the summer are also great ways to show players the program and the campus while also showing them a different side of Tennessee’s coaching staff. All great stuff, and all opportunities to build out a bigtime class. But doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is the definition of insanity, and when that thing is proven to not work it also is counterproductive. What’s been proven to work for Tennessee is inseason OVs, where the Vol Walk and the Vol Navy and 102,45mf’in5 show kids what Tennessee football is all about. And barring that, Tennessee has done well with OVs between the end of the season and the start of the ESP, when once again everything that is great about Tennessee’s program can be showcased. So along with potentially a better recruiting staff (TBD), another year for Pruitt and his core staff to have built relationships and gotten 2021 kids on campus, and an upward trend for the program not seen since the end of the 2015 season (which proved to be a bit of a mirage), perhaps a change in official visit strategy will also help to sign what should be Pruitt’s best class in his tenure as the Head Coach at Tennessee.
On December 31, 2009, I was headed back from Atlanta after a loss to Virginia Tech in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. We couldn’t find a countdown on the radio in English, so my friend and I welcomed in the new decade in Spanish. The Hokies pulled away late to win 37-14, but there was plenty of optimism for Lane Kiffin in year two. Earlier in the day Bruce Pearl’s Vols won at Memphis. Things had been difficult in moving on from Fulmer, but we were hopeful order would be restored soon.
January 1, 2010 began with four basketball Vols getting arrested. Nine days later the Vols beat #1 Kansas without those players. Two days later, Kiffin left in the middle of the night. And the 2010’s were off and running.
It hasn’t been what any of us wanted ten years ago. The Gator Bowl, assigned to the 2019 season, will decide if the Vols finish above or below .500 for the decade. The basketball Vols made it back to number one and won another conference crown, but we’re still waiting for a second trip to the Elite Eight and our first to the Final Four. And everything changed for the Lady Vols, who won national titles in 2007 and 2008 but haven’t seen the Final Four since.
The craziness of those first dozen days set the tone for much of what would follow. But even in these turbulent years, there have been moments to celebrate. Here, in chronological order, are our favorite things from the last ten years:
The Elite Eight
I’ve been writing on the Vols for 14 years, and the 2009-10 basketball season is still my favorite story. The win over Kansas wasn’t just without four players, but saw just 14 minutes from J.P. Prince and 19 from Wayne Chism due to foul trouble. And the Vols won anyway, thanks to 9-of-18 from the arc including 4-of-6 from Renaldo Woolridge.
We’re all used to John Calipari at Kentucky and one-and-dones today, but in 2010 – Calipari’s first season in Lexington – that John Wall/DeMarcus Cousins group of UK players were rock stars. They came to Knoxville 27-1, and left 27-2.
And then to break through against two-seed Ohio State in the Sweet 16 after the crushing loss to the Buckeyes three years earlier, behind 22 points and 11 rebounds from Wayne Chism. The Vols let Evan Turner have his (31 points), but absolutely locked down the rest of Ohio State’s options. The 2010 Vols finished 28-9, were a six seed in the tournament, and five Tennessee teams since 2006 have finished with a higher rating in KenPom. But no one danced longer.
Tyler Bray vs Cincinnati
34-of-41 for 405 yards, four touchdowns, zero interceptions. Justin Hunter: 10 catches for 156. Da’Rick Rogers: 10 for 100. It all came crashing down to injury the next few weeks, but in this moment – a 45-23 win over Butch Jones and a Cincinnati team that finished the year ranked – other than the first half of the 2016 season, I’m not sure I ever walked out of Neyland Stadium more confident that we were “back” at any point this decade.
Cordarrelle Patterson
You forget how spectacular he was because we went 5-7 and spent most of the year talking about Derek Dooley, but remember this (and maybe mute your sound):
Two Weeks in February 2013
The Vols were 13-10 (5-6) coming to the end of Cuonzo Martin’s second season. And then, in four consecutive games:
Beat Kentucky by thirty (30) points
Beat LSU behind 34 points from Jordan McRae
Beat Texas A&M in four overtimes
Beat #8 Florida
I’m sure Cuonzo and many of us would call the run to the Sweet 16 from Dayton the peak of his tenure in Knoxville. But because so many people had jumped ship by that point, these end of these two weeks was the time you felt most confident in him. The Vols lost at Georgia, won two more to close out the regular season, lost in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals, and were again broken by the bubble. It’s hard to make lasting memories if your season doesn’t end in the NCAA Tournament, but these four games were a joy individually and felt like they could have been even more collectively.
Josh Dobbs Arrives at South Carolina
If you want the most rewatchable game of the decade – one not tied to any “yeah, but…” conversations like 2016 – it’s Tennessee at South Carolina in 2014.
Dobbs in this game: 23-of-40 for 301 yards passing, plus 24 carries for 166 yards rushing, five total touchdowns. Whatever you think of whatever happened with Butch Jones, the things we first wanted to believe about Dobbs on this night generally came true. An incredible individual game, enabling the Vols to once again get the last word on Steve Spurrier, and an initial step to one of the best Tennessee careers of the decade.
Josh Richardson
When the decade began, C.J. Watson was Tennessee’s lone NBA representative. Tobias Harris would join him in 2011 after a one-and-done campaign. From Cuonzo’s teams, no one would’ve picked Richardson to have the best NBA career. But I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a Tennessee player get better from one year to the next in a four-year career like this:
Year
PPG
Minutes
3PT%
FT%
2012
2.9
16
23.7
64
2013
7.9
30.7
21.4
69.2
2014
10.3
30.4
34
79.3
2015
16
36.3
35.9
79.8
The Outback Bowl & 2016 Off-Season
Beating Northwestern 45-6 doesn’t doesn’t ring any bells around here despite the kind of decade we’ve had, though it’s still Tennessee’s most dominant win over a ranked team since 1990. And the Outback Bowl is still Tennessee’s most prestigious destination since playing in the Cotton following the 2004 season.
But what that win enabled for the next eight months sure was fun.
And despite what happened in the second half of 2016, that preseason hype was earned by the near misses of 2015. The Vols were preseason #7 using a magazine consensus. It’s been a long time, before and after, since we’ve been able to anticipate that kind of year.
One Half of That Kind of Year
All of them come with a tinge of disappointment for the way 2016 ended, but all three are still incredibly unique:
The Battle at Bristol, the all-time attendance record for college football
The only win over Florida since 2004 and the second-largest comeback in Neyland Stadium history
The Hail Mary, which to my knowledge still doubles as Tennessee’s only walk-off win on an offensive touchdown in regulation in school history
As we wrote a couple of times in the midst of this stretch, getting down 14-0 in the largest attended football game in human history was only the fourth-most-stressful thing to happen to Tennessee in the first five games.
You can argue Jauan Jennings’ catch is both the apex of that season and the decade in football, the Vols using up the last of their magic. But it joins, “Did you turn off The Miracle at South Bend?” and “Did you try to leave the stadium before Stoerner fumbled?” as one of the best “Where were you when it happened?” moments in my Tennessee lifetime.
Fulmer’s Return
Bad seasons come and go, but the most vulnerable Tennessee’s athletic department has been in my lifetime was in the aftermath of Schiano Sunday after John Currie was fired. It only lasted a few hours, but to have no idea who’s in charge or who would be in charge after a week of insanity at the end of a decade of the same…it was a nervous moment.
The answer was Fulmer, who to this day gives me comfort on a simple, human level: I know the guy in charge of the thing I love loves it even more than I do.
For whatever experience I’ve gained in my 38 years or things I’ve learned in writing about the Vols for 14 years, that simple truth stays around. You don’t have to have that dynamic to be successful. But there’s an undeniable confidence when you do have it. And at the end of the craziest week at the end of the worst football season in program history, I’m still glad Phillip Fulmer was holding the keys.
Basketball Back on the National Level
In the midst of all the football insanity, I think the most divisive Tennessee conversation of this decade was still Cuonzo Martin by a healthy margin. Even in defending him the way I and others did, there was a stubborn belief that Bruce Pearl – even if we believed he was never coming back here – represented Tennessee’s highest ceiling.
Tennessee lucked into Rick Barnes. But in a decade when both chemistry and timing worked so hard and so often against us, the Vols got that one absolutely right.
The November 2017 win over Purdue was quickly forgotten in the midst of Schiano Sunday, but it started everything we’re enjoying now: 26-9 with an SEC title in 2018, 31-6 with a month at number one and a Sweet 16 in 2019, and the number four recruiting class in the nation for next season. Along the way (and thanks to UCLA), Tennessee and Phillip Fulmer upped Barnes’ salary to put the Vols in elite program territory in men’s basketball.
Barnes is 6-4 against Kentucky, and sent three Vols to the NBA Draft last season. Grant Williams is probably Tennessee’s athlete of the decade. Along the way there have been memorable individual plays…
…and far more wins the whole team shares. From Purdue to the first win at Rupp since 2006 in 2018, then taking down #1 Gonzaga – the best team Tennessee has beaten in the KenPom era – embarrassing Kentucky in Knoxville, and getting another 2-1 season advantage on the Cats in the SEC Tournament last year. If what Pearl’s teams did was the best positive story of Tennessee’s last decade, what Barnes and his teams are doing now is the best positive story of this one.
You Just Never Know
All the years, all the games, and sometimes you still get a loss to Georgia State in the opener and the first time the Vols covered the spread six weeks in a row since 1990 in the same season.
Football ends the decade no closer to the mountaintop than when it began: a 7-5 regular season heading to a bowl game, with positive momentum in recruiting and optimism for the future. We still don’t know.
But this year taught us we also never know, not really. And that’s one of the great things about sports. This decade saw a six seed make it one possession from the Final Four, our most talented football teams in 2012 and 2015-16 underachieve, a group of three-stars spend a month ranked number one, and a little bit of everything from this football season.
More than anything, this decade reinforces an old truth: we come back, year after year, not for the winning – though that’s preferable! – but for the experience itself.
So here’s to another ten years of great stories, great characters, and great memories. We’re never boring. And we’re always here.
We’ll have more on the various position groups in Tennessee’s
2020 class in the coming days, but below are some high level thoughts:
Early Signing Day has de factor become THE signing day, and
Coach Jeremy Pruitt and staff made sure they locked up all of their commitments
(sans OL Kyree Miller, who they apparently
encouraged to wait…hint hint) and also signed all five of their top uncommitted
targets coming into the day. It was a
no-doubt banner day for the Vols and even if they sign no more prospects the 2020
roster is now deeper and more talented across the board than it was in 2019.
At the same time, while one could argue whether or not the
Vols closed any of the gap between itself and the Alabama/Georgia/LSU
triumvirate at the top of the league – and the best argument in the affirmative
is that those programs simply can’t get that much more talented while Tennessee
has a lot of room to grow – what’s very clear is that Tennessee widened the gap
between itself and the group of schools in the SEC East that it jumped in 2019. In particular, Missouri and Vanderbilt signed
classes that simply aren’t going to cut it in the SEC. And while UK and South Carolina have respectable
classes and some really strong position groups (e.g., UK did well on both
lines) those classes would have Vol fans burning mattresses if they were in
Orange and White. Arkansas, Tennessee’s
rotational SEC West opponent in 2020, did nothing to make one think that on top
of their already bad roster and coaching-change-driven attrition that they will
be anywhere close to the Vols talent wise.
Florida, Tennessee’s arch nemesis and only rightful partner
at the top of the SEC East with Georgia, also had a strong class. Using Rivals rankings, the Gators’ 24-man
class finished 7th in the
country with one 5-star and thirteen 4-stars and an average star ranking of 3.58,
while Tennessee’s 23-man class finished 9th overall with zero
5-stars (pending QB Harrison Bailey’s deserved 5th) and thirteen
4-stars and an average star ranking of 3.52.
So, yeah, pretty much equal to each other in objective metrics. Pruitt will have to outcoach and outdevelop Head
Gator Dan Mullen in order to overtake the Gators.
While we wait to hear whether or not TE Darnell Washington signed at all and if so whether it was with
Tennessee or Georgia, either way there are only a handful of real difference
makers left in the 2020 class that Tennessee could realistically sign in February. At the very top of the short list of
difference makers is of course is Auburn DL commitment Jay Hardy. Everyone knows
the story – the fact that he didn’t sign with Auburn, whether his plan was always
to sign in February or not, is a great indicator that the Vols have a massive
opportunity to flip him and add to an already strong DL haul. Other than him, it seems like Jumbo ATH Dee Beckwith is the other main target
until someone else pops up, and with Florida having already used its official
visit with him in December and his brother Camryn having accepted a PWO offer
from Tennessee, the Vols are likely in the driver’s seat should they choose to be. Beckwith’s issue (or, more accurately, this
writer’s issue with Beckwith) is that he clearly loves basketball more than he
loves football. It just so happens that while
he’s a very good basketball player capable of realistically playing lower-level
ball in college, he’s clearly viewed as a bigtime football prospect as evidenced
by offers from the likes of the Vols and the Gators. So that will have to work itself out one way
or the other. Tennessee signed an
outstanding group of playmakers in WRs Jalin
Hyatt and Jimmy Calloway to go
with QB/ATH Jimmy Holiday, but
Beckwith’s film is intriguing in that you can squint and see the kind of
massive WR that doesn’t exist very often in college football. Like Holiday, he’s be an unusual chess piece
for OC Jim Chaney to play with in his search to make Tennessee’s offense more
dynamic and explosive.
If one agrees that other than those handful above there just
aren’t really any unsigned prospects that are going to move the needle for the
Vols, then the question becomes what is the best use of the available scholarships. Rolling them over to a 2021 class that should be Pruitt’s best since he began
his tenure in Knoxville given the upward trajectory of the program, the
recruiting staff he currently has (even before any potential upgrades in that area)
as well as an unusually strong crop of instate talent, is a viable option. The other is making prudent use of the
Transfer Portal. “Prudent” is the operative
word here, and in this case it translates to “former elite prospects who are
leaving elite programs.” For example,
Aubrey Solomon and Deangelo Gibbs. That’s
the kind of talent, whether it is immediately available or you have to wait a
year, that’s worth using a scholarship on.
A contra example would be (and we mean no disrespect) Madre London. Tennessee might not yet have a roster capable
of winning the SEC, but it also no longer has positions of simply glaring need
where a random Grad Transfer could just step in and immediately start. This isn’t Georgia Tech with Ryan Johnson or Central
Florida and UCF. Now, currently there aren’t
many of those. Right now, there is
recent UGA portaler DE Robert Beal or
Alabama transfer DB Scooby Carter
and that’s about it. After the bowl
games there are likely to be more that shake out though, and that’s the kind of
talent Tennessee should be focused on adding with its remaining openings.
