Category Archives: Football

Why Butch Jones’ refusal to use the word “disappointment” is a good thing

It will come as no surprise to most, but folks are still weighing in on Butch Jones’ response to a question at SEC Media Days yesterday about whether he viewed the 2016 season as a disappointment. Today’s headlines say that Jones did not view the 2016 season as a disappointment. That led to a lot of fans wondering why it is so difficult for Jones to use that particular word to describe that particular situation. After all, Vols defensive tackle Kendal Vickers admitted that 2016 was a disappointment, so why can’t his coach?

For the record, here is Jones’ entire response to the question:

“I don’t view it as a disappointment. The way I view it is we didn’t accomplish everything we set ourselves out to. And, again, our goal every year is to win a championship and compete to win a championship.

“So, was it a disappointment? No. Did we not accomplish some of the things we set out to do? Absolutely. We have to learn from the things that went wrong that we could have done better.

“But I think all you have to do is look at it’s difficult to win and it’s difficult to win championships. And I think this league really exemplifies that. But I’m still proud of the way our team responded. And I told our football team this. The lessons you learned from last year, the resolve, the resiliency, are going to serve you for many years down the road in life.

“And that football team went through a lot of things. I know we started off 5-0, and I believe our first five opponents were divisional champions. And I made a comment going towards the tail end of our season that the back half of our season would be much more challenging than the front half of our season.
Everyone kind of looked at me like, what are you talking about? But I knew where we are at as a program, and we were still needing that competitive depth across the board, and we have some position groups where we couldn’t afford to have injuries.

“But, again, this is a results-oriented business and we fell short of our goals. But I don’t like to use the term “disappointment,” because when you still look at it, it’s hard to win in this conference. And only three teams have won nine games, and the University of Tennessee is one of those.”

The entire quote is 1,624 characters, though, and would require 12 total Tweets, so it’s boiled down to the lead: “I don’t view it as a disappointment.”

But did he accomplish what he wanted? No. Did some things go wrong? Yes. Could they have done better? Yes. Did they fall short of their goals? Yes.

But are there any positives to take from last season? Yes.

And that’s why we aren’t going to hear Jones label the whole thing as a disappointment. He’s bent toward the positive. He believes in the Power of Positive Leadership.

Sports Illustrated’s Andy Staples says that Jones should talk like he thinks, that he shouldn’t be “deathly afraid of admitting what any person would feel in his situation.”

What Jones fails to understand is that those fans just want to know he feels the way they feel. They’re disappointed about last season. They would rather have an East championship than a Life championship. They would rather their team sign five-star players instead of five-star hearts. If he were willing to show them he feels the same way—except more passionately, because this is his livelihood we’re talking about—then they might be more understanding if the rebuild takes a little longer than expected.

Fans want to win, Jones believes a positive attitude is the way

Staples is right that many fans want to know that Jones feels the way they feel, but what they want more is to win. My theory is that Jones believes that a positive attitude is the only path to victory and he is absolutely unwilling to deviate from that belief even if it makes some fans and media uncomfortable in the short term. He believes that this is the only way to give fans what they truly want in the end instead of what they’re asking for right now. Jones’ predecessor tried embracing the negativity, and his orange pants are burnt to a crisp in the dumpster. Sure, we fans want a coach to feel the same way we do, but we also want one who will do what it takes to win, and if the coach believes that those two things are in-congruent, he’d better choose the latter.

Butch Jones obviously believes that positive leadership is required to win, and so he views everything from that perspective. It’s what causes him to couch everything in positive terms, including negative outcomes.

And it’s what causes him to see both positives and negatives in a season that had both and boldly proclaim that the only thing it means is that we’re not there yet.

Reading between the lines at SEC Media Days: Butch Jones and competitive depth

There’s been some manufactured controversy about Tennessee Vols head coach Butch Jones saying at SEC Media Days that he didn’t think last season was a disappointment while Jashon Robertson was saying that it was. A couple of notes on that first before I get to my main point. First, it’s not like these guys were sitting in the same room arguing with each other. Jones was asked in one room and Robertson was asked in another.

Second, Jones really only said that he didn’t like the word “disappointment.” He said in the same sentence that they didn’t accomplish everything they’d set out to do, that they needed to learn from the things that went wrong, and that they could have done better. He then said that he was proud of how the team responded and that the lessons they’d learned would serve them well in the future, and then he said again that they fell short of their goals. He just doesn’t like the term “disapointment,” probably because of that book he’s apparently been reading and recommending to SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey.

What everyone can hopefully agree on is that there are lessons to be learned from last year, and the more important issue is exactly what lessons have been learned.

One guy (high five to The Sporting News) actually asked that question mostly in that form, and Jones’ answer sheds some light on the main thing that he thinks went wrong last year and what he’s doing about it this offseason.

“You can never have enough depth,” said Jones. “Everything is about competitive depth.”

That wasn’t the only time Jones used the phrase “competitive depth,” either. He used the same phrase when someone else asked him what he needed to do to take the proverbial next step:

“I think a lot of times, too, when you’re building a football program, your program goes through evolutions or different stages from being able to compete to having competitive depth.”

Depth was definitely on Jones’ mind. He even mentioned it in response to the question about last year being a disappointment, saying that he knew depth was going to be a challenge in the back half of the season even before it became the problem that it was.

The difference between “depth” and “competitive depth” is presumably the difference between having backups and having backups who are actually ready to play. So, a “competitive depth” problem is a combination of injuries to starters and backups who aren’t quite ready to fill in.

One of the most interesting things I heard out of Jones’ mouth today was his subtly-offered opinion that having to rely on true freshmen more than normal could have been a factor in the rash of injuries last year, that maybe they weren’t physically ready to play. I don’t know whether that’s actually true, but it’s an interesting question: Are younger guys more prone to injury? It has a certain logic to it.

Regardless, it seems that Jones thought his team’s primary problem last year was competitive depth. In other words, not just too many injuries to key guys, but not enough backups who were ready to play.

So if that’s the problem, how do you correct it?

Enter Rock Gullickson

The second most-repeated phrase of the day was this:

This has been the best offseason we’ve had.

I’m not attributing that quote to anyone in particular because I think everybody wearing orange must have said it. I heard it from Butch, and Twitter recorded it from Robertson.. I haven’t read or heard any interviews from Kendal Vickers or Emmanuel Moseley yet, but I’m fully expecting to see the same quote from them. Heck, it was probably a talking point on the plane.

It’s not uncommon for players and coaches to say something similar at media days, but again, reading between the lines provides some glimpse into why they’re saying it, and the why is important to the problem of competitive depth.

“Rock” and “Gullickson” were the first two words out of Jones’ mouth on the SEC Now program after he declared this their best offseason. (For anyone just now tuning in, Gullickson is Tennessee’s new strength and conditioning coach.) He was the first new hire that Jones mentioned in his opening remarks. Butch Jones thinks Rock Gullickson is important.

But important why? Jones mentioned several times that his players are bigger and stronger this year than last. He mentioned it on SEC Now when asked how his defensive line was going to stop the run this year. He specifically singled out Darrell Taylor as a guy who looks completely different now than he did last fall.

Reading between the lines at SEC Media Days today, then, it appears that Jones believes that the thing he needed to fix the most in the offseason was a lack of competitive depth, and that’s exactly what he’s been doing. He’s put former NFL strength coach Gullickson in charge of getting his guys healthier, bigger, and stronger, so that his team will be better.

And he says it’s been the best offseason they’ve had in five years.

We won’t know if that’s true or whether it matters until this fall, but it’s good to know that Jones has identified the issue and is well on the way to executing his plan to correct it.

What to expect from the Vols at SEC Media Days this afternoon

SEC Media Days kicks off today in Birmingham, Alabama. It’s like a much-needed little booster shot, giving college football fans just a little extra juice that you’ll need to make last through the start of fall camp.

The SEC Network will devote more than 30 hours of coverage to the event this week, primarily with its appropriately-named SEC Now: 2017 SEC Football Media Days television show from 12:30-5:30 each day.

Up first is Arkansas, LSU, and Good Ole Rocky Top. (The schedule the rest of the week is here.) Each team brings its coach and three player representatives to the event to sweat under the spotlight and heavy-breathing of about 1,000 sportswriters. In a season without stars, it’s hardly surprising that Tennessee went with seniority in tapping seniors Kendal Vickers, Jashon Robertson, and Emmanuel Moseley to say the right things in front of the microphones today. Generally, these guys are well-coached and will do exactly that, and they’re even getting advice from guys who’ve been there and done that like VFL Chris Walker:

“Engage the reporters,” Walker said. “Don’t get offended at questions that you get asked, because we always have to answer questions and sometimes answer tough ones. I think it’s one of those things where you enjoy the process and the opportunity you get to represent your university.”

If you are tempted to think that the reporters are especially prescient this week because their pre-event “X things to watch for at SEC Media Days,” just remember that they will be the ones asking the questions and thus directing the agenda. Mike Griffith did an especially good job with this, not only asking the questions, but also both predicting the answers and reading between the lines to interpret them. John Adams, though, makes you cock your head like a dog looking at a ceiling fan, wondering exactly what he’s doing. Is it snark? Good-natured humor? There’s enough truth in there to make you wonder about everything.

Anyway . . . by all means, expect these things to be addressed:

  • Lack of star power. As a couple of recent tweets from Bobby Rader pointed out that none of the preseason magazines have the same players on their covers, and even the SEC Media Guide punted on the issue and just showed an obscure group of faceless, numberless players. That could be a very good thing for team chemistry, but we’ll just have to wait and see. Expect the coaches and players to spin it positively. Also expect a few references to 1998, when Tee Martin took over after Peyton Manning was off to the NFL.
  • The quarterback battle. Will it be Quinten Dormady or Jarett Guarantano? Might it be both? When will they know? What criteria will they use to make the decision? Expect many words and no real information.
  • Update on injuries and what they’re doing to prevent this year what happened last year. Recently, Jones has downplayed the ability of a strength and conditioning coach and program to decrease injuries, and he’ll likely do that again. But he’ll also probably talk about the importance of gaining weight and strength and that they’ll be better in those areas this fall. He’ll also likely rattle off the players who have gained weight and make several references as to how Rock Gullickson is improving the program this summer.
  • How does everyone feel about Jones being identified by several news outlets as being on the hot seat? I may get this verbatim: “We have the best fans in the nation, and we like the expectations. It’s why you come to a place like Tennessee.” Points to anyone who can communicate that thought in a unique way, though. They may even get a blockquote from me this evening.
  • Further comments on Jones’ earlier “Champions of Life” comment. I wouldn’t expect Jones to walk this back very much but instead to clarify by adding more detail. It may lead to eye rolls from the cynical sports writers, but as several are beginning to point out, it’s much more important that the message resonates with players and their parents, and if Jones is saying these things to that audience and getting the results on the recruiting trail that he’s currently getting, then he’ll get no eye rolls from me.
  • The impact of the staff changes. These guys — Mike Canales, Walt Wells, Brady Hoke, Kevin Beard, Charlton Warren, and even Larry Scott, who is in a new role this fall — are all essentially the backup quarterback, someone you love because he hasn’t had the opportunity to make any mistakes yet. They’ll all get glowing reviews today.
  • The impact of the John Currie and Phillip Fulmer hires. How many times have you heard someone say bad things about their bosses in public? Right. (I actually think the nice things they’re saying about these hires are also true, for whatever that’s worth.)
  • The offensive line. I’ve said it many times, but I’ll say it again: these guys are as experienced, talented, and deep as they’ve been in a long time, and if they’re stronger and nastier to boot and can stay healthy, it’s going to go a long way toward having the Vols exceed muted expectations this fall.

We’ll be following along when the Vols step up to the plate, so stay tuned here and on Twitter.

 

Tennessee Takeover Day on the SEC Network is July 18

The SEC Network has announced that Tuesday, July 18 is Tennessee Takeover Day, a day for which the Vols “will exclusively program 24-hours of the network with classic games, films, ESPN original content and school-produced content.” During a two-week span, each of the 14 SEC schools gets to take the network hostage and use the platform for its own propaganda, and the 18th belongs to the Big Orange.

So what will the Vols choose to show the world with its own 24 hours? The only thing currently listed on the article announcing the Takeover schedule is the 2016 Tennessee-Florida game, which is certainly a great start. I’d expect the Georgia game as well. And maybe the Battle at Bristol or a nostalgic trip back to 2007, 2001, or 1998. Toss in a bit of recruiting news, add in a few sprinkles of Peyton name-dropping and an NFL Draft roundup, and we’d have a nice day. If we could manage the day without Paul Finebaum, that would be a nice cherry on top, but we won’t get greedy.

If you were in charge of programming for the day, what would you serve up?

Whatever the case, expect an awesome 24 hours of orange-tinted goodness. We’ll be watching for sure.

 

Tennessee’s Biggest 2017 Question: Where’s the Rush?

While some Tennessee fans may be wringing their hands over life after Joshua Dobbs, those concerns need to shift to the opposite line of scrimmage instead.

Between experienced junior Quinten Dormady and talented redshirt freshman Jarrett Guarantano, the Vols will have a capable quarterback behind center. It may be worth your worry to wonder how Larry Scott will fare in his first year as an offensive coordinator, but with running back John Kelly and a quality offensive line to help matters, it shouldn’t be as big of a deal moving forward on that side of the ball as some may think.

The real sweaty palms need to come on defense, particularly on the edges.

A season ago, UT’s defense was horrific in high-dollar coordinator Bob Shoop’s first year on Rocky Top. He has as much to prove as any player on the team after an embarrassing season that saw the Vols completely fall apart down the stretch. Yes, injuries were a contributing factor, but there’s still no reason South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt should have been able to torch Tennessee in Year 4 of a coaching tenure.

If it’s not an indictment of recruiting depth against Butch Jones, then it’s got to fall on somebody. Jones is the head coach, so he deserves a portion of the blame, but Shoop gets paid $1 million a year to scheme things up better than he did a season ago.

If that happens again in 2017, there’s no reason why Tennessee should keep paying him.

“I think at the end of the year you always critique yourself and you quality control your personnel, your philosophy, your scheme, your execution and your personnel,” Shoop told GoVols247’s Patrick Brown recently. “I think I might have billed it (with) some unrealistic expectations, and when we got guys injured, maybe the guy calling the shots was a little bit stubborn right there, me. I really wanted to force-fit, this is my style of defense or whatever. I probably didn’t do a great job at times of tailoring things.”

As the story notes, Tennessee’s defense allowed 353 and 409 yards rushing to Texas A&M and Alabama. Later, it got much worse.

Kentucky gained 635 yards, including 443 on the ground. Missouri rushed for an unreal 420 yards en route to a 740-yard performance, the most yards ever allowed by a Tennessee defense. Then Vanderbilt scored 45 points in a season-ending upset.

Embarrassing.

What led to those gaudy numbers was a fundamental breakdown on all three levels of the defense. When you factor in the fact that Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Cam Sutton and especially Derek Barnett are gone, the Vols are going to have to shake things up under Shoop to improve. And they need to improve dramatically on that side of the ball in ’17 to even match the nine wins from a season ago.

The biggest loss is Barnett — a record-setting Tennessee legend when it comes to sacking the quarterback. Underrated are the losses of his end mates, Corey Vereen and LaTroy Lewis, too. Vereen was sneaky-good, and with all the added attention on Barnett, he performed well, even for an awful defense. Lewis gave quality late-down snaps, too.

Where do the Vols go from here? How do you replace the irreplaceable in Barnett and his supporting cast?

That’s the biggest question mark of the season. Tennessee has to generate a pass rush among the players remaining on its roster. It also has to build quality depth where, at least on the surface, none exists on the roster. While UT has some depth at defensive tackle [though the Vols need Shy Tuttle to get back from his injury sooner rather than later, and the first of the year isn’t looking like it’s going to happen…] the ends are paper-thin.

A year ago, Jonathan Kongbo played much of the time on the interior. Many reports are that he’s gotten his body in a good position, and he is showing the type of leadership that is necessary for a player of his ilk. After showing some flashes late last year, the Vols need the junior former No. 1-ranked JUCO player to live up to his ranking under new line coach Brady Hoke.

The other starter should be battled out between promising redshirt sophomore Darrell Taylor and oft-injured, formerly highly-ranked prospect Kyle Phillips. Neither player has proven he can be an every-down SEC defender, but both have immense talent. Taylor is over 250 pounds and is the kind of speed-rusher teams covet, but he’s got to prove he can get off blocks and play with more consistency than he did this spring. Phillips simply can’t stay on the field. His freshman and sophomore seasons were cut short with injuries, and he didn’t participate this spring, either. The Vols must have him all year.

Beyond that, your guess is as good as any where Tennessee will find depth.

The best guess right now is true freshman mid-term enrollee Deandre Johnson, who the Vols flipped from Mississippi State. The Miami native looked like a player who maybe can help right away this spring, and that’s big news for Tennessee. Perhaps one of the most intriguing players with college-ready bodies is freshman Matthew Butler, too. He is a jumbo defensive end who looks versatile enough to play either inside or out and should get snaps right away for the Vols, too.

Though Austin Smith and Ja’Quain Blakely are listed as linebackers, either could play with his hand down. Smith played defensive end after moving from linebacker a season ago, but he’s back to 236 pounds, and the redshirt sophomore could stay on the next level. With all the glut of second-level defenders, though, the quickest path to the field for him may be at end. Regardless, he’ll get snaps somewhere. He’s too talented to keep off the field. As for Blakely, he’s a good-looking player who redshirted a season ago and, now at 254 pounds, he looks like he can play at end. That’s where he should spend most of his time, and the Vols would love for him to break out this spring and prove deserving of some snaps.

If Mykelle McDaniel can remain in good standing with the Vols after being suspended last year, he’s a guy who could provide meaningful reps or at least is talented enough to.

Anybody projecting Ryan Thaxton, Kivon Bennett or Marquez Bembry right now knows more about the team than I. Nobody knows if those guys are going to be able to help in 2017 or when they’ll be able to at all.

And, yeah, that’s it.

So, as we said, the pass-rushers are far and away the biggest question marks and the utmost concern. If you can’t get to the quarterback and he has all the time to find open receivers downfield, he’ll find them. Tennessee’s defensive backs were terrible a season ago, and though new secondary coach Charlton Warren may actually get a player to turn around and play the ball every once in a while, it’s not realistic to think UT can go from as bad as it was defending the pass to the top half of the SEC.

In other words, the Vols need to find some guys to get after the quarterback from the end position (or from the second level like Quart’e Sapp is possibly capable of doing). If they do that, the defense stands a good chance of being much better.

If they can’t, it’s going to be a tough time to be a Vols fan when the defense takes the field again in 2017.

Butch Jones: Comebacks, Blown Leads, and Pace of Play

In late September 2015, after two of the most difficult losses of the modern era, we researched how often the Vols had historically blown leads. In 17 years Phillip Fulmer’s teams blew a two-possession lead in a loss just six times:

  • 1994 at Mississippi State:  led 21-7 third quarter, lost 24-21
  • 1995 at Florida:  led 30-14 second quarter, lost 62-37
  • 1999 at Arkansas:  led 24-14 third quarter, lost 28-24
  • 2001 vs Georgia:  led 14-3 first quarter, lost 26-24
  • 2001 SEC Championship vs LSU:  led 17-7 second quarter, lost 31-20
  • 2006 vs Florida:  led 17-7 third quarter, lost 21-20

In just his first four years, Butch Jones’ teams have also blown a two-possession lead in a loss six times:

  • 2014 at Georgia:  led 10-0 first quarter, lost 35-32
  • 2014 vs Florida:  led 9-0 fourth quarter, lost 10-9
  • 2015 vs Oklahoma:  led 17-0 second quarter, lost 31-24 (2OT)
  • 2015 at Florida:  led 27-14 fourth quarter, lost 28-27
  • 2015 vs Arkansas:  led 14-0 first quarter, lost 24-20
  • 2016 at Vanderbilt:  led 34-24 third quarter, lost 45-34

Fulmer’s Vols never blew a two-possession lead in the fourth quarter. Jones’ Vols did it three times in a span of 13 games against Florida in 2014 and 2015 and Oklahoma in 2015. Before then you have to go back to 1986 to find a Tennessee squad that lost a game in which it led by two possessions in the fourth quarter.

But, consider this:  by my count Fulmer’s Vols came from two possessions behind to win 10 times in 17 years:

  • 21 points: Kentucky 2001, LSU 2005
  • 18 points:  Arkansas 1998
  • 17 points:  Georgia 2006
  • 15 points:  Kentucky 1995, Vanderbilt 2007
  • 13 points:  Alabama 1996, Auburn 1997
  • 10 points:  Arkansas 1995
  • 9 points:  Kentucky 2004

Meanwhile, Butch’s Vols have come back from two possessions behind to win six times in just the last three years:

  • 21 points:  Georgia 2015, Florida 2016
  • 17 points:  Georgia 2016
  • 14 points:  South Carolina 2014, Virginia Tech 2016
  • 10 points:  Appalachian State 2016

Quality of opponent is also interesting here:  40% of Fulmer’s comeback list is Kentucky or Vanderbilt, while two-thirds of Butch’s came against teams who were ranked at the time or finished the year that way.

Say what you will about Butch Jones (or Josh Dobbs, the quarterback of every one of those comebacks). The bigger point?  Pace of play has significantly changed how we watch college football.

Getting down 14 points used to create panic; Fulmer’s Vols only came back from such a deficit six times in 17 years. But today, it’s not a big deal:  Butch’s Vols have come back from down 14 points five times in the last 31 games. 

Getting up by a similar margin is also no sure thing anymore. Fulmer’s Vols only blew two leads of 12+ points ever, and only one if you remove games started by Todd Helton at quarterback. When Tennessee got up that much, the Vols were a lock (in part because of a far greater talent advantage). But the 2015 Vols blew 12+ point leads against three consecutive FBS foes.

Pace of play has increased the number of total plays per game, which means the opportunity to blow a lead or come back from a hole is greater now than it was in Fulmer’s day. More plays also means more opportunity for injury, which as we know can create all kinds of havoc in both an individual’s playing career and a season’s narrative.

Check out the total number of snaps Tennessee’s defense has faced in the last nine years:

Season Opponent Plays Per Game
2008 776 64.7
2009 852 65.5
2010 913 70.2
2011 752 62.7
2012 923 76.9
2013 827 68.9
2014 892 68.6
2015 904 69.5
2016 1000 76.9

Last year the Vols were one of only nine defenses to face 1,000 plays while playing only 13 games. The 2016 defense clearly had problems that went beyond injuries, depth, and fatigue. But no one should pretend this kind of workload wasn’t a significant factor.

Numbers like these are also why using yards/points per game is so misleading. Missouri gained 740 yards on the Vols, but did so in 110 plays. In yards per play it was only the fourth worst performance of the season for the Tennessee defense. Team 120’s season total in yards per play allowed (5.84) was better than not just Sal Sunseri’s 2012 debacle (6.13), but also Butch’s first year in 2013 (6.07).

These numbers suggest Tennessee is going to blow some leads this fall. They also suggest no one should panic if Tennessee falls behind by two scores. I’m sure there are things for Butch to consider in how he prepares his team and keeps them locked in during games. But overall I think this has less to do with Butch Jones and more to do with the current reality of the game. And for coaches, players, and fans alike, it means a higher percentage of meaningful snaps.

[ess_grid alias=”grt-2017-promo-grid”][/ess_grid]

 

 

Greg Emerson Gives Tennessee the Jewel of its Recruiting Class

When the news broke on Sunday that elite Tennessee defensive end target Greg Emerson suffered a leg injury at “The Opening” recruiting showcase camp, Volunteers fans and commitments everywhere showered the 4-star prospect with love.

The news improved significantly on Monday when it became clear the Jackson, Tennessee, star would be running again after just 4-6 weeks on the shelf.

Then, 24 hours later, the headlines concerning Emerson became front-page news for UT fans when perhaps the top target in the 2018 Vols recruiting class made his commitment to Tennessee official on the NFL Network with a surprise announcement.

“I said I was going to do it in December, but I guess I’ll go ahead and let everybody know. For the next four years, I’ll probably be furthering my education at the University of Knoxville. Go Big Orange.”

It’s all good that he left out the “Tennessee” part right now. Quite honestly, nobody who cares anything about Vols football cares that a nervous kid mixed up the name. The bottom line is Emerson is an elite prospect who has seemingly favored UT for a long time and will play his college days on Rocky Top. That’s massive news for head coach Butch Jones, Emerson’s top recruiter Walt Wells and his position coach, Brady Hoke, who deserves a big assist in the commitment.

Emerson is the nation’s No. 26-ranked player overall in the 247Sports recruiting rankings and the third-ranked defensive tackle. In the composite ratings, he’s the No. 76 player and fifth-ranked defensive tackle. He is currently 6’3″, but he wants to stay on the outside and play defensive end in college, and because he’s reportedly down to 260 pounds (from 296), his weight and his athleticism may allow him to do just that. Last year, there were 32 5-stars on 247Sports, so with a strong senior season, there’s no reason to believe he can’t finish there.

247Sports analyst Steve Wiltfong believes the Vols are getting one of the most athletic defensive linemen in the nation, which is saying something at his size.

Emerson’s size may sound like an interior lineman, and he may very well be, but Emerson’s burst is elite. At the very least, he’ll be a guy who can be a versatile cog anywhere up front the way Jonathan Kongbo projects to be and much the way a guy like Malik Jackson was able to do in the past. Emerson has that type of talent, and it’s the reason why he’s one of the most sought-after players in the country.

Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Florida, Florida State and basically everybody else wanted him to commit to them. Emerson even admitted early in the process he grew up an Alabama fan. But Emerson has been feeling the Vols for a while. Last year, when UT won a hotly contested recruiting battle for the services of 5-star offensive lineman Trey Smith of Jackson, Emerson was present at his announcement, and he was visibly excited for Smith committing to Tennessee.

Over the past few months, Emerson visited Knoxville multiple times. He developed a strong bond with Jones, Wells and Hoke, and, beyond that, he also built a rapport with two other big-time linemen from the Volunteer State in Brant Lawless and D’Andre Litaker. Both of those kids verbally committed to Tennessee over the past few months, and it became evident that it would be a major upset if Emerson went anywhere else.

On Monday, he made his verbal commitment official.

The Vols continue to load up in the Volunteer State. Pretty much, the only three players they wanted who haven’t committed are running back Master Teague (Ohio State), offensive lineman Max Wray (Ohio State) and Jordan Davis (Alabama). The Vols quickly moved on at running back and on the O-line, and they’re still heavily recruiting Davis, but it appears he’s solid to the Crimson Tide at the moment.

Davis visited at “Orange Carpet Day” a couple of weeks ago, as did Emerson, who actually silently committed to Tennessee during that visit, according to VolQuest’s Jesse Simonton and Austin Price, who did a commitment video with the big lineman during that weekend.

With Emerson’s commitment, it gives Tennessee a bevy of Volunteer State studs. Five-star offensive lineman Cade Mays from Knoxville Catholic leads the pack with Emerson not far behind him in the rankings. Alontae Taylor is also at “The Opening” recruiting showcase camp in Nike’s world headquarters in Beaverton, Oregon. The Manchester, Tennessee, athlete gives UT another marquee player from close to home. Lawless and Litaker have all the trappings to be next-level studs, and Chattanooga safety Brendon Harris looks like he could be a multi-year starter, too. Farragut tight end Jacob Warren and Knoxville (Gibbs) center Ollie Lane round out the players from within state borders in UT’s haul.

The Vols have a few other in-state targets they’d love to land, but topping that list is offensive lineman Jerome Carvin.

If UT can get him, that will mean perhaps the best instate recruiting class in the history of Vols football. It will mean the Vols addressed major needs in both trenches without even having to venture out-of-state. When you’re able to take care of business at home, it can be the beginning of a fantastic class.

Throw in two good-looking running backs and a pair of stellar quarterbacks, and this class is off to as good a start as any nationally.

This UT recruiting machine has come a long way in the past year when you take into consideration that nearly a year ago, the Vols were receiving a crucial blow when Oak Ridge wide receiver was choosing Clemson over his hometown team. Toss in Jacob Phillips and JaCoby Stevens choosing LSU, and it was a forgettable recruiting class for the Vols in their own state.

This year, the class is elite. And it’s getting there because all the big boys in the Volunteer State are staying home to be part of the #Dom1n8 class that is shaping up to be dominant, at least on paper. It’s a class that is loaded. Emerson makes it much more so.

With the changes he made on the coaching staff, they’re paying major dividends with prospects. Tennessee is currently ranked fourth nationally in recruiting and second in the SEC. The Vols have put together a strong group of 16 kids in a class that should swell to 25-26.

Regardless of what big fish Jones may land between now and National Signing Day, Emerson is going to be among the top two or three in the group. He’s exactly the kind of player who can be a playmaker and an immediate-impact prospect in Knoxville.

Do You Smell What Walt Wells is Cooking?

There’s no wonder players everywhere love Tennessee offensive line coach Walt Wells. If he winds up coaching half as well as he’s recruiting, the new Volunteers assistant will wind up being a home-run hire for coach Butch Jones.

Upon getting hired by the Vols to be the full-time offensive line coach, Wells referred to Tennessee as his “dream job.” So far, it’s been a dream fit.

How many times have you heard over the past few years of Jones’ tenure that the Vols needed another “ace” recruiter. It’s hard to believe there’s been one just down the hall as an offensive quality control assistant. After last year, South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp came calling, trying to get Wells to be the Gamecocks’ new offensive line coach. But Wells stayed. Perhaps he already knew what was going to happen as UT parted ways with O-line coach Don Mahoney and promoted Wells to a full-time gig.

It’s already paid massive recruiting dividends on the recruiting trail, and it looks like it could be one of the best hires of an offseason full of assistant flipping.

“It’s always been a dream of mine to be here and I know it’s more than a dream, it’s reality now and I know what the reality is – we need results,” Wells told the media in his first interview as UT’s O-line coach. “That’s my goal just as much as anybody in this building.”

While those on-field results must wait, the work in the living rooms is paying off for Wells and Tennessee already.

Currently, Wells ranks eighth out of all assistants in 247Sports’ recruiter rankings, credited with five commitments. Five-star Knoxville Catholic commit Cade Mays, instate stud safety Brendan Harris and defensive tackle D’Andre Litaker lead the pack with Farragut tight end Jacob Warren and 3-star Knoxville (Gibbs) offensive lineman Ollie Lane credited to him, as well.

Wells already has landed 2019 commitments from Chattanooga athlete Cameron Wynn and midstate prospect Adonis Otey.

He’s also the lead recruiter on stud defensive lineman Greg Emerson of Jackson, Tennessee, who UT is right in the thick of, as well as Memphis top offensive tackle target Jerome Carvin, elite JUCO defensive lineman Dorian Gerald (who has UT and South Carolina at the top of his list), IMG Academy offensive lineman Reuben Unije, Virginia tight end James Mitchell and others. Tackle prospects Tanner Antonetti and massive IMG Academy standout Daniel Faalele are also being targeted by Wells.

The Vols are throwing him at some of their top targets, and he’s helping build an exceptional recruiting class. While Brady Hoke gets credit for Nashville defensive tackle Brant Lawless, Wells at least provided an assist there, too.

With all the talent instate this year and next, it was vital for the Vols to win their share of battles in the Volunteer State. Any time you can keep home 8-12 players who are being recruited by the rest of the SEC, it gives you the opportunity to build a firm foundation for a top-10 class that can compete to win the SEC East, if not the league. That was a major failure a season ago as top talent like receiver Tee Higgins, linebacker Jacob Phillips and defensive back JaCoby Stevens went elsewhere.

While linebackers coach Tommy Thigpen has won a lot of recruiting battles for UT, his star was fading in the state, especially in the I-24 corridor between Mufreesboro and Nashville that has become fertile recruiting ground the past few years.

Enter Wells.

The Belmont graduate and Tennessee native has long-time ties in the Midstate. He’s a proud Tennessean, and he plays up the state pride angle very well. His Twitter profile even has a #MidStateMade hash tag right there for the world to see. He has firm roots in relationships with coaches and camps within Nashville and beyond. People know Wells, and Wells knows people. More importantly, people like Wells.

Coaches like Wells. Parents like Wells. And, most important, kids like Wells.

It’s easy to see why. He’s also one of the most fun follows on all of Tennessee Twitter, quickly becoming known for his Pro Wrasslin’-themed tweets that either herald a coming commitment or celebrating one once it’s official. No, coaches can’t comment specifically on players, but there’s nothing cryptic about the references Wells flings out every time the Vols add one to their “Dom1n8” class.

Like this tweet in response to last weekend’s duo of running back commitments Lyn-J Dixon and Anthony Grant where he references the great Sting during his NWO days.

And this one in reference to the same duo, throwing a little former UGA player Bill Goldberg out there with a Georgia reference.

You gotta love that, right?

For a coaching staff (and head coach) who embraces social media and getting a positive message out there, Wells is a perfect fit. Now, about that coaching, he’s got to do a much better job than his predecessor.

Mahoney was an assistant UT’s offensive linemen loved, but the on-field results were always underachieving. He inherited a talented bunch in his first season with Ja’Wuan James, Zach Fulton, Tiny Richardson and James Stone, but UT’s line didn’t live up to the expectations, struggling in a scheme fit as the Vols relied on zone-blocking concepts when they were built primarily for man blocking.

The next year in 2014 was an absolute disaster as graduation and early departures of all those aforementioned players and Derek Dooley’s recruiting gaffes led to an awful season up front. The failure of JUCO offensive tackle Dontavius Blair didn’t help matters, either. Then in ’15, UT made a big leap up front in what was Mahoney’s best coaching job. The unit plummeted a year ago, however, and it became evident Tennessee needed to go in a different direction.

Now, Wells gets the opportunity to see if his infectious personality and recruiting chops can materialize with some strong Xs and Os. If he winds up being a great coach, the Vols’ offensive worries for the upcoming season with a possible dropback passer in Quinten Dormady under center and some new weapons for a new coordinator Larry Scott may not be such a big deal after all.

A lot is riding on Wells and UT’s offensive line, which returns a slew of players who have a great blend of youth, talent and experience. It’s far from a barren cupboard, so Wells doesn’t have any excuses. Tennessee fans have to hope he coaches as well as he convinces kids to commit.

If he does, Tennessee’s trenches will be in good hands for years to come.

SEC Schedule Proposal with FiveThirtyEight’s Model

Of the many interesting scheduling ideas floating around this off-season (including Joel’s here a few days ago), my favorite is from back in January: Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight’s Make College Football Great Again. Their post uses the Big Ten, in part an effort to help prevent another Penn State or Ohio State playoff debate. We’re simply applying it here to the SEC. In terms of what is the most fair and the most fun, this is the best model I’ve seen.

No divisions, no conference championship game, nine regular season conference games.

First, ditching conference championship games frees up an additional week to be used on playoff expansion or an extra bye week.

If you’re going to go this route, you have to address the possibility of ties at the top of the standings. Models that include a handful of annual rivals and a rotation of other opponents – including ones that do it well like this one from SB Nation – either keep the conference championship game as a potential rematch, or shrug their shoulders at the notion of a tie.

In case you were born before divisions or overtime, ties are awful. No one is happy because literally no one wins.

I’m for anything that makes every single game matter as much as possible, and in this sense I don’t like playing conference championship games in non-divisional formats because of a higher probability of rematches. Divisional formats with annual rivalries greatly reduce the possibility of rematches: in 25 years the SEC has never had an annual rivalry (Tennessee-Alabama, Florida-LSU, Georgia-Auburn) play an encore in Atlanta.

But take out divisions? If you just sent the two best conference records to Atlanta, Tennessee and Florida would have run it back in 1993, 1995, 1996, 1998, and the very next week in 2001. This absolutely would have diminished the value of the regular season meeting.

Schedules need a way to preserve the rivalries that matter most, but also maximize the value of every game. And they need to be able to produce a champion that is rewarded in ways Penn State was not. Head-to-head needs to matter more, not less.

This is why I love FiveThirtyEight’s model:

Imagine a world in which historical rivals always play each other every year and yet, by almighty Rockne, the best teams in a conference always play one another, too. Imagine a world with no divisions.

Not only have I imagined such a world, my friends, but I have seen one. I have seen it in the hallways of a high-school debate tournament.

The solution that debate tournaments devised is something called power-pairing. Power-pairing just means that teams with the same record are paired off against each other, so that a team that starts off the tournament 2-0 will face off against another 2-0 team, for instance. It usually works by drawing the first two rounds of a tournament at random,1 and after that, everything is power-paired.

Three annual rivalries, two predetermined opponents, four flexed/power-paired match-ups

Here are the annual rivalries I went with:

  • Alabama:  Auburn, LSU, Tennessee
  • Arkansas:  LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M
  • Auburn:  Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi State
  • Florida: Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee
  • Georgia:  Auburn, Florida, South Carolina
  • Kentucky: Mississippi State, Missouri, Vanderbilt
  • LSU:  Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss
  • Ole Miss:  LSU, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
  • Mississippi State:  Auburn, Kentucky, Ole Miss
  • Missouri:  Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas A&M
  • South Carolina:  Florida, Georgia, Vanderbilt
  • Tennessee:  Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt
  • Texas A&M:  Arkansas, Ole Miss, Missouri
  • Vanderbilt: Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee

In FiveThirtyEight’s model, teams play their rivals in weeks 2, 4, and 7 of league play. Week 7 highlights the biggest rivalries as best we’re able. There’s a logistical point here for the SEC: this model works more smoothly for the Big Ten because they typically don’t start conference play until week four or five. So there’s a whole piece here about moving most or all non-conference games to early September that would have to be worked out, along with bye weeks.

In weeks 1 and 3 of league play, teams would face a predetermined opponent. FiveThirtyEight’s model uses the previous season’s standings to determine these foes:  Week 1 would feature teams from the top of the conference against teams from the bottom, Week 3 would feature best against best and worst against worst.

Opponents in weeks 5, 6, 8, and 9 of league play would be determined as the season played itself out. Weeks 5 and 6 would be decided after Week 4; Weeks 8 and 9 decided after Week 7, with both pairs of match-ups featuring one home and one away game. In each case, the league office would make the effort to power-pair teams based on their current records, creating the best available match-ups among teams yet to face each other. FiveThirtyEight’s piece had an algorithm help select these match-ups.

How would this look for the SEC? Here’s a sample season we played out (projected losses in red):

Let’s take Tennessee as an example. After four weeks the Vols are 3-1, and are paired with 4-0 Texas A&M and 2-2 LSU in Weeks 5 and 6. After seven weeks the Vols are 5-2, and are paired with 4-3 Ole Miss and 4-3 Auburn in the last two weeks of the season.

At the end of the year the Vols didn’t play Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State, or Missouri. None of those teams finished above .500. Look at how many meaningful games everyone is playing:  Alabama, who wins the league at 8-1, played every team finishing 6-3 or better and three of the four teams finishing 5-4. South Carolina, who tied for last at 2-7, did not face Alabama or 7-2 Texas A&M.

If two teams tie at the top, power-pairing virtually assures they played each other during the regular season, thus head-to-head decides it. If three teams tie and their head-to-head results cancel out, power-pairing virtually assures you can find a next best common opponent to break the tie.

This would require some flexibility at all levels, especially with four unknown games to schedule on short notice. But of all the models I’ve seen, this one is the best at producing a worthy champion without divisions or rematches while sustaining key rivalries. It creates a sense of anticipation and opportunity as the season goes along with good teams continuing to face each other; in the above case the title is decided in the final week of the season when Alabama plays Texas A&M. It increases the value of every win: going 9-3 may not be cause for celebration right now, but against a schedule like this it becomes much more of an accomplishment (and hopefully creates healthier expectations along with more meaningful games). It also protects schools at the bottom of the league in any given year, helping struggling teams stay alive for bowl eligibility longer with more winnable games down the stretch. And, most importantly, it pushes opinion out of the equation and maximizes head-to-head results.