Where do we set the bar for John Kelly?

Earlier this week Jimmy Hyams quoted some of Tennessee’s offensive linemen saying they wanted John Kelly to get 2,000 yards this season. Perhaps they’re unaware that no one at Tennessee has ever run for even 1,500 yards in a single season, but hey, aim high!

It’s not fair to Kelly to call his sophomore season a good news/bad news campaign. He is Exhibit A in the, “Just because they were playing behind someone great doesn’t mean they can’t be great,” argument for Team 121. It was no sin to be third team behind Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara in their final seasons in Knoxville. The “bad news” side of the equation is, when he did get his chances, most of Kelly’s productivity came against lesser competition:  only six carries in the first five games plus Alabama, none against Florida or Georgia. Most of his 630 yards last year came against Texas A&M, Nebraska, and the late October-November stretch that didn’t feature a Top 50 defense.

The good news is those 630 yards came on only 98 carries. That’s 6.43 yards per carry. And when you break out the media guide and compare that to what the leading running back has done at Tennessee since 1980, it’s very good news indeed:

Year Back Att Yds YPC
1993 Charlie Garner 159 1161 7.30
2006 LaMarcus Coker 108 696 6.44
2016 John Kelly 98 630 6.43
1994 James Stewart 170 1028 6.05
1992 Charlie Garner 154 928 6.03
1989 Chuck Webb 209 1236 5.91
1997 Jamal Lewis 232 1364 5.88
1983 Johnnie Jones 191 1116 5.84
1990 Tony Thompson 219 1261 5.76
2004 Gerald Riggs 193 1107 5.74

 

First of all, let’s all tip our cap to Charlie Garner’s 1993 campaign. You can make an argument that the ’93 Vols were Tennessee’s most dangerous team of the decade; put a future Pro Bowler like Garner in the backfield with the Heisman runner-up at quarterback, and you get fireworks.

LaMarcus Coker is an interesting comparison for John Kelly. Coker’s 2006 season came as part of a crowded backfield with Arian Foster and Montario Hardesty, and much of his success came against lesser opponents: 417 of his 696 yards came against Marshall, Memphis, and Vanderbilt; 176 of those yards on two runs. He was dismissed from the team the following season while still competing with Foster and Hardesty. But John Kelly has the lead back role all to himself this fall.

Having historically great numbers against below average competition is no guarantee. It’s what makes Kelly both so intriguing and so difficult to project this fall. As he and the line are chasing numbers, Tennessee’s single season rushing record can be had if he averages 113 yards per game. As the lead back in what should continue to be an up-tempo offense, that’s not out of the question. It’s strange to think about something like that just a year after being so sure we were going to see the career record fall to Jalen Hurd. School records aren’t a fair expectation, but it might not be an exaggeration.

What can we expect from John Kelly this fall? He’ll run hard and his linemen talk like they’ll genuinely enjoy blocking for him. That’s always a good sign. Maybe he’ll settle at solid and some of the Vols’ talented freshmen will get to make some hay as well. But there is at least the potential for something special in Tennessee’s backfield from #4.

Gameday Today: The Vols quarterback battle continues

The Vols quarterback battle continues, a happy pack of Wolfs, a host of quick hits, and a video roundup, all in today’s Vols link roundup.

Quarterbacks

Quarterback Jarrett Guarantano, who is reportedly running a close second to Quinten Dormady for the starting job, reportedly had a really good practice the other day. Some believe that practice is not especially conducive to what Guarantano does best, which is to run and evade tacklers, so news that he’s a bit of a gamer shouldn’t surprise. Guarantano does seem a bit indecisive on whether to embrace the label, though:

“I don’t want the label ‘gamer,’ but I want people to know that I am a gamer,” Guarantano said Sunday afternoon during Tennessee’s annual media day. “I think that when those bright lights are on, I’m able to really play some ball.”

Everybody wants the Vols QB to be a winner, of course, but identifying a winner before the game is played is the classic chicken and egg problem, so quarterbacks coach Mike Canales is left with what he believes is the best criteria on which to judge Dormady and Guarantano. Here’s what he’s looking for:

“You’ve got to be physically tough, you’ve got to have mobility, you’ve got to have arm strength, the ability to process information quickly,” Canales said. “I mean those things have to happen because you’ve got to be able to process what defenses are doing. I’m very into seeing how much the kids (we) recruit can process that information. I like to get to know them a little more, so you know if they can or not.

“Everybody wants the Tom Brady, the Peyton Manning, you know, the Aaron Rodgers. Everybody wants that. But they’re all unique in their own special way. They all have special strengths. It’s finding a young man that fits what you’re looking for and has great character.”

Canales did acknowledge that something “clicked” for Guarantano the other day and also insisted that he’s still a candidate to start.

And in case you think that whatever decision is made first is made forever, John Adams pipes up with a little Vols quarterback history to remind us that the guy who starts isn’t always the guy who finishes.

Eli Wolf earns a scholly

You may not have known this, but tight end Ethan Wolf’s younger brother Eli, also a tight end for the team, didn’t have a scholarship until a couple of days ago, when this happened:

That guy he was supposed to go up against in the Circle of Life drill was his brother, and Eli said that once the whistle blew he was only thinking about “puttting him on his butt.” Ethan was also surprised by the announcement, and Dad enjoyed the moment, as well.

Quick Hits

Video roundup


 

First week of NFL preseason offers glimpse of Vols’ future

After being shut out of the previous few NFL Drafts in an historic drought, the Vols broke through in a big way in 2017.  Headlined by first-rounder Derek Barnett to the Eagles, a total of six Volunteers were drafted.  In addition, two other prominent seniors in tight end Jason Croom (Buffalo Bills) and defensive end Latroy Lewis (Oakland Raiders) were signed to UDFA contracts, and since then cornerback Malik Foreman has signed with the New Orleans Saints.

This is a big deal for Butch Jones, as this was his first senior/draft-eligible junior class to be up for the NFL Draft.  The lack of Vols drafted has certainly been used against Butch and Tennessee on the recruiting trail, and frankly there was not much Jones could say or really do about it.  The success he’s had in dramatically upgrading the talent on the Vols roster in the face of this is even more astounding.

As it should have, the UT football program made a very big deal on social media and with recruits about the results of the 2017 NFL Draft.  You’ve already heard 2018 running back recruits talk about being “the next Alvin Kamara” and more than one defensive end prospect talk about how Derek Barnett is his role model.  And of course Josh Dobbs an official Torchbearer  and an ambassador of the program due to both his on and off the field exploits – he should be a role model that Butch holds up when recruiting similarly academic-minded prospects.

But while getting guys drafted is a big deal, the performances of your NFL alumni, especially guys newly in the League, can be leveraged even more.  And if the first week of the NFL Preseason is any indication there is going to be a lot to promote starting this season.

Obviously when your first-round pick dominates in his NFL debut to the tune of two sacks that’s going to generate a ton of headlines, and that’s exactly what Derek Barnett did.  But Kamara showed out as well as the starter for the Saints, and Josh Malone scored a touchdown in his debut with the Bengals. Dobbs made a highly-publicized start for the Steelers, and he settled in after a rough start and showed that he’s got the tools to be an NFL QB.  Jalen Reeves-Maybin led the Lions in tackles in his debut, and LaTroy Lewis looks highly likely to make the Raiders’ active roster after a very good camp and a two-sack opening night of his own.

Coming off back-to-back nine-win and Top 25 seasons and with three bowl wins in a row, Butch and Tennessee have a lot to sell on the recruiting trail in terms of being a blue-chip program back on the rise after a relatively brief drop during the tenure of [REDACTED].  But in the end, what kids want is to make it to the NFL, and before this season no matter how good of a salesman Butch was, he didn’t have that to sell.  As schools like Alabama and Ohio State and Florida State show you, selling on-field success and a platform to the NFL are linked, as of course the programs with the most future NFL talent are the ones consistently competing for national championships.  The good news is that now Butch CAN sell the NFL dream as well as an improved program.  And with some 2017 seniors and several potential NFL early-entrants (who you never want to lose but are the sign of a team stocked with talent) he should have more to sell next summer as well.  We should expect him to sell the heck out of it starting immediately and it should start to yield results beginning with the 2018 class.

2017 seniors with the best chances of being drafted

  • TE Ethan Wolf
  • OL Jashon Robertson
  • OL Brett Kendrick
  • CB Justin Martin
  • CB Shaq Wiggins
  • S Todd Kelly

2017 potential early entrants

  • RB John Kelly
  • WR Jauan Jennings
  • DL Kahlil McKenzie
  • DL Shy Tuttle
  • DL Jonathan Kongbo
  • LB Darren Kirkland Jr

Could Tennessee Football Be Receiving a Jolt?

When Tennessee lost leading receiver Josh Malone to the NFL following last year, everybody expected the Vols would take a major dip in production at the position this year.

That may not be so cut-and-dry, after all.

Yes, UT will miss Malone, whose light finally came on last year to catch 50 balls for 972 yards and 11 touchdowns. Yes, the Vols will miss quarterback Joshua Dobbs and his play-making ability.

But it’s also possible they’ll be a better passing team with Quinten Dormady under center. After all, Dobbs did a lot with his feet, enough with his arm and won games with his grit and heart, but he was far from the most accurate passer, and he didn’t always make the best decisions.

Though nobody knows how Dormady will fare, he looked sharp in the spring game and also has proved he can make a lot of things happen with his big arm and escapability in limited game action thus far. He’s got a much better arm — much more live than Dobbs’ — and his ball placement is much better than the former UT starter’s, too. In other words, he puts the ball in a spot for his playmakers to make their next football move and get downfield.

So, what if the playmakers actually make plays? Don’t count out the receivers. In speaking with some people I trust during camp, this is an area where the coaches are pleasantly surprised and, it’s not a stretch to say, even very encouraged.

First-year offensive coordinator Larry Scott indicated as much to the media on Thursday.

“I tell you, I think right now it’s probably been more the receiver group, being that there are some young guys in there that haven’t necessarily played a little bit last year, but now they’re in some roles where that’s picked up for them,” Scott told the media, according to GoVols247’s Ryan Callahan.

“The way that they just responded to everything, with some of the things that we’re doing a little bit differently than we have in the past and different things like that, so I think that group has really kind of been a surprise, yet still has so far to go to be ready to go. But we’re definitely encouraged with what’s in that position group.”

That’s huge news for Tennessee’s offense. You’ve got to figure between Dormady and talented redshirt freshman Jarrett Guarantano, the Vols will find a capable slinger to man the helm of the offense. Also, junior John Kelly has star quality and a team-first attitude that should translate into a big year on the ground behind a deep, veteran offensive line returning more than 110 starts.

The trio of freshman running backs — particularly Ty Chandler and Tim Jordan — have been good enough to push Carlin Fils-aime to the point that it would be a surprise if CFA is the second runner off the bench, and fellow freshman Trey Coleman looks like he has the potential to be a good short-yardage back. So, the running game looks to be on firm footing.

Tight end Ethan Wolf was challenged by an anonymous NFL scout this week in a Mike Griffith article for SEC Country as being “soft.” So, if he takes that as a challenge and responds in the right way, the Vols could get better play than they’ve had out of the position. There are plenty of options behind him, so you’d think one of them will step up.

All that leaves is the receiving corps, which, heading into fall camp, was expected to be “Jauan Jennings … and everybody else.”

It hasn’t been that way at all.

Jennings — the junior from Murfreesboro who already has etched his name in the memorable plays department at UT with his torching touchdown of Jalen Tabor to punctuate the Vols’ comeback victory over Florida last year and the Hail Mary grab in the Dobb-nail boot win over Georgia — certainly has that “dog” in him. The only thing he has left to prove is whether or not he can perform when opponents aren’t shading safeties toward Malone.

Jennings is big and physical, and he is known for making plays. But he has to improve on last year’s 40 catches for 580 yards and seven touchdowns. In order for him to do that, he needs help.

If this fall is any indication, he’s going to get it.

The Vols did a lot of 7-on-7 work this summer when they really hadn’t under head coach Butch Jones in the past, and that looks like it has paid off. The quarterbacks and receivers are more on the same page than many expected at this early stage of camp.

The good news starts with senior Josh Smith, who thus far has held off the emergence of redshirt freshman Latrell Williams and return of sophomore Tyler Byrd to be the starting slot receiver so far. There’s a long way to go, but Smith is showing up and showing out. I know you may not believe it after the past two sub-par seasons, but based on what I’ve heard from practice observers, Smith is quick and fluid.

Think about the player he was before the high ankle sprain against Oklahoma during his sophomore year, leaping defenders and turning big plays out of short gains. That’s the Josh Smith that has shown up so far in practice work now that he’s healthy. That’s big news for the Vols, who also look like they’ll be able to depend on Byrd AND Williams at the position, too.

On the other side opposite Jennings, the Vols have Marquez Callaway, who has the ability to be a standout receiver. The sophomore from Warner Robins, Georgia, had a punt return for a touchdown a season ago against Tennessee Tech, flashing some ability. He’ll get an extended audition this year on offense. So, between Callaway, Byrd (who should be on defense, but I digress…) and Williams, the Vols are excited about those playmakers at the position. Their speed, elusiveness and wiggle combined with Dormady’s ability to put the ball in positions for them to turn and get upfield could be big for Tennessee.

Then there’s sophomore Brandon Johnson, who looked like he had the potential to do big things, getting a lot of playing time as a true freshman. He had just seven catches for 93 yards, but he also showed ability in practices and again looks good this summer. The second-year player from American Heritage High School in Florida is the nephew of Chad “Ocho Cinco” Johnson and the son of former major league catcher Charles Johnson, and those athletic bloodlines translated well.

So, we’re up to Jennings, Smith, Callaway, Johnson, Byrd and Williams. All of those guys have given UT fans reasons to be excited about the youth and potential at the receiving corps during the first couple of weeks of camp.

And that isn’t even to mention one of the biggest stories of practices so far. On defense, everybody is buzzing about true freshman linebacker Will Ignont. Offensively, that constant buzz-worthy player is receiver Josh Palmer, a player who wasn’t even a part of Tennessee’s class last year until very late.

He is a Canadian pass-catcher who moved from up North to Florida last year to catch the eye of college football teams. He was initially committed to Syracuse, but the Vols and Scott identified him, loved what they saw and convinced him to come to Knoxville. That looks like a coup.

The 6’2″, 198-pound receiver is the most physically ready of the freshmen, and he will help right away. All the talk you have heard isn’t just lip service; he’s the real deal. Though there’s always the threat of a freshman wall, Palmer is going to make a lot of plays very soon.

Though he was the 122nd-ranked RECEIVER — not player — in the 247Sports rankings, the Vols wanted him badly when they saw him. He’s proving that evaluation right.

“He was kind of a late bloomer,” UT head coach Butch Jones told GoVols247’s Grant Ramey. “You never really know until they get here. Again, it’s just a level of consistency. He hasn’t missed one rep.”

He’s made the most of those reps, too, as Jones told the media that Palmer would play “a lot of football” for the Vols this year.

Of course, everything hasn’t been perfect this summer.

But, the good has far outweighed the negative.

So, without question, UT will miss Malone’s big-play ability from a season ago. This receiving corps would really have the potential to be excellent had he not bolted to the NFL draft, where he was selected by Cincinnati in the fourth round. But there are enough quality talents at the position to produce and make up for those numbers as a collective unit this year.

First-year receivers coach Kevin Beard has a lot of good prospects on his hands, and it appears he’s getting them to blossom. If that continues and the Vols can get consistency from Dormady (or Guarantano), the passing game may not miss a beat from last year, and it’s even possible it can be better.

Comparing Tennessee’s Win Probabilities with FPI & S&P+

That’s a lot of alphabet soup in the title. FPI (Football Power Index) is an ESPN metric; as such you’ll see it a lot on their coverage, in playoff conversations, etc. S&P+ is a metric used by Bill Connelly at SB Nation and Football Outsiders, measuring what it believes to be the four factors most critical to success (efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives) plus turnovers.

Both are useful, among many other ways, in their projected win probabilities which update each week. Bill Connelly released his excellent 2017 Tennessee preview today, which gives us a look at S&P+’s projected odds for Tennessee each week. An FPI projection for Tennessee is also available at ESPN.com.

Before diving into their numbers, think of it this way for your own odds:  what percentage chance would you give Tennessee to win each game?

Add up all those percentages, and you’ll get your projection for Tennessee’s record this year. It’s one thing to say you think the Vols should go a generic 9-3 or 5-7. This way of thinking it through usually involves statements like, “Missouri, we’ll beat them.” The Vols should be favored, no doubt, but there’s a difference in assuming an automatic win (of which there are virtually none in the SEC anymore) and saying you give Tennessee an 85% chance.

The Vols are favored in nine games by both FPI and S&P+. But neither projects the Vols to go 9-3. This is because the percentages on so many games are close enough to 50%, the most likely outcome is the Vols will lose one or two they’re actually favored to win. This is what happens to almost everyone: how many power conference teams who were favored in at least six games never lost to an underdog? Last year, the answer was four:  Georgia Tech, Nebraska, Penn State, and Southern Cal. Saying you think Butch Jones will lose one he shouldn’t is basically saying you think Butch Jones is like most coaches in college football (Jones is 27-6 as a favorite at Tennessee and has covered the spread as a favorite better than anyone other than Missouri in the SEC). Upsets happen.

When you add the percentages, FPI projects the Vols to finish around 8-4; S&P+ projects a finish around 7-5. It’s an interesting neutral perspective. Here’s the comparison with Tennessee’s win probability for each game:

Opponent FPI S&P+
vs Georgia Tech 68% 56%
Indiana State 99% 98%
at Florida 38% 30%
UMass 97% 93%
Georgia 51% 51%
South Carolina 76% 66%
at Alabama 14% 7%
at Kentucky 60% 57%
Southern Miss 96% 87%
at Missouri 64% 61%
LSU 47% 29%
Vanderbilt 81% 74%

Note the differences:

  • How much of a toss-up is Georgia Tech? S&P+ puts it squarely in that category, giving the Vols a 56% chance to win. FPI is much more bullish on the Vols at 68%; other than the 18-point swing in their LSU projections, this is the biggest difference on the board. Vegas has the Vols as a 3.5 point favorite, so I’d say it qualifies as a toss-up.
  • I think S&P+’s odds for Florida are too low. Tennessee has had the better team in this match-up three years in a row, and has recruited as well or better than the Gators in that span. Maybe Florida gets elite quarterback play from Malik Zaire to make this difference; I’m not saying the Vols should be favored, but if they played 10 times I think Tennessee wins more than three.
  • Everything about the Georgia game suggests a toss-up. And history is the strongest indicator there:  the last six have been decided by one possession, three of the last four on the final play of the game.
  • What is Tennessee’s most difficult game after Alabama, LSU, Florida, and Georgia? FPI says it’s at Kentucky (60%). S&P+ gives the nod to Georgia Tech, but by only a singe percentage point over Kentucky (57%). No one likes the timing of that trip to Lexington the week after Tuscaloosa.

If you blindly assume the Vols will win all the games they’re favored in, you’re probably thinking 9-3 or better. If you blindly assume every game other than Alabama and the non-power-conference games are true toss-ups, you’re probably thinking 7-5 or worse. I think the latter assumption is safer, but the truth is usually in the middle. And in this case, the data can support what I believe will be the majority projection of 8-4.

Ethan Wolf and Colton Jumper post-practice comments

Ethan Wolf

On the question of whether someone is stepping up to replace the pass-catching void of Jason Croom from last year, Wolf said that there’s a lot of depth at the tight end position with him, Eli Wolf, Jakob Johnson, and Austin Pope.

Wolf also emphasized that the chemistry on the team is really good, even with the new guys. There were some very productive individual workouts throughout the summer, which he said was “very encouraging compared to camps in the past.” Hmm. Somebody should have circled back around to that.

When asked to comment about the differences between former offensive coordinator Mike DeBord and current OC Larry Scott, Wolf said that Scott is “very energetic.” He also mentioned that they have already installed their base offense that they ran last year and have added some new stuff as well. He said that he’s expecting to see more differences as time goes on and that he’s “excited to see how [Scott] distributes the ball this year.”

Colton Jumper

Jumper seems to be in tune with Jones on the challenge of having summer classes still going during fall camp, saying that “We’re still in summer school right now, so that’s been kind of a struggle because guys still have classes.”

Asked about the linebacking corps in general, Jumper noted that nothing’s really settled right now. He’s currently practicing at Mike, but he’s also played Sam, Will, and something called Cheetah, too, which sounds so much more cool, and is willing to fill in wherever needed.

 

 

 

Jones talks QB separation, freshmen running backs, Georgia Tech, and more

Butch Jones talked to reporters after practice last night and started with saying that the challenge right now is balancing practice and summer school. The message to his team was to make sure they are not just spending their time at practice, but investing it, and he said that having fall camp while summer school was going on was going to help develop mental toughness.

Jones also addressed several other issues:

  • He dodged a question about whether either Quinten Dormady or Jarrett Guarantano had separated themselves from the other in the ongoing quarterback battle saying instead that both are improving every day and gaining confidence.
  • When asked specifically about Dormady, Jones said he is consistent and getting more comfortable and vocal. He then said the same about Guarantano. Specifically, he’s watching several things, including their body language after a play to see whether it changes depending on how the play went.
  • Jones said that all three freshmen running backs are looking good and are going to play. They’re being taught the difference between being a rusher and being a running back, that they need to be able to run, take care of the football, pass protect, and carry through well on run fakes. He says they’ve handled it extremely well and that much of the reason for that is that John Kelly is doing a good job of mentoring them and helping them get ready. And don’t forget that Carlin Fils-aime is also still in the mix. So it looks like it’s not just Kelly and Fils-aime but that they’re getting the freshmen ready to contribute as well.
  • The team is starting to sprinkle Georgia Tech preparation into their practices. At this point, they are not especially concerned about who the Yellow Jackets quarterback is going to be. They’re more concerned just about their offense, which Jones characterized as a very, very explosive one that causes mismatches and match up problems. They are going to run their offense regardless of who’s manning the QB position. Jones hasn’t tabbed anyone in particular to be the scout team quarterback, saying the main challenge is being able to simulate the speed of the game with that type of offense.
  • After a brief hesitation, Jones acknowledged that the senior cornerbacks do have a leg up on the others just due to experience. He again mentioned how much he’s liking Justin Martin, that he’s growing up and maturing. Emmanuel Moseley getting cleared for all drill work is also a good thing. But the young guys are pushing the older guys.
  • When asked what they’re doing, if anything, about opposing teams kicking away from kick returner Evan Berry, Jones said simply that they need to be solid in their schemes and that the goal of the kick return unit is to get good starting field position for the offense. When teams “sky-kicked” against the Vols, their starting position was between the 34- and 37-yard lines, which they’ll gladly take.
  • At weakside linebacker, Quart’e Sapp is apparently still “very limited,” but Cortez McDowell has had a good camp. Jones likes that they have some versatility at the linebacker spot and specifically mentioned Elliott Berry and Dillon Bates. They’re happy to have Darrin Kirkland Jr. and Colton Jumper back, and they’re all being pushed by the young guys.

 

On Fewer Injuries & Better Health

Earlier today Joel had an informative post using Phil Steele’s injury data from last year. The fact that Tennessee led the nation in starts lost to injury last season shouldn’t surprise any Vol fans. But seeing the data presented in this format does give some additionally helpful perspective:

  • Tennessee lost 52 starts to injury last year. Only the Vols and Syracuse (50) lost more than 44.
  • The median starts lost last year was around 20. This means Tennessee was more than two-and-a-half times less fortunate than the average team with injury luck last season.
  • The Vols did this while facing what Steele ranked in his magazine as the 17th toughest schedule in the nation. Shout out to Syracuse, who lost 50 starters while facing the 2nd toughest schedule in the nation (Clemson, Florida State, and Louisville are all in the ACC Atlantic, plus they drew (and beat) Virginia Tech from the Coastal).

“Injuries are a part of football,” you’ll say. Of course they are. But this is the most helpful metric I’ve seen to show how abnormal Tennessee’s season was last year. Every team deals with injuries; no one but Syracuse dealt with this level of attrition, then had to play that schedule.

Injuries are not an excuse, but they are reality. The same is already true for the 2017 Vols with potential starter Chance Hall out for the year. The start and the finish last year left little room for grace and understanding, and this too is simple reality. But perhaps, if the 2017 Vols are able to do something this year we can all celebrate, we might be able to look back on 2016 with at least a little more understanding.

With a more manageable rhythm to the schedule, fewer expectations carrying a decade’s worth of weight, and significantly better odds on the injury front, 2017 should have a chance to be a healthier experience in more ways than one.

Phil Steele’s injury bounce-back data suggests Vols in good shape for 2017

A few days ago, Phil Steele posted a ranking of all 128 college football teams by how many starts they lost to injury last season. It will come as no surprise to Vols fans that Tennessee is near the top (or bottom, depending on how you look at it) of the list.

Because Steele’s list is sorted by the fewest starts lost to most, I have taken the liberty of re-ordering it by most to least. The entire re-sorted list can be found here. After re-sorting, here are the top 17:

2016 Starters Lost to Injury Total Starts Lost Starts Lost % Starts Lost Rank Poised to Improve Rank
Syracuse 50 18.90% 128 1
Tennessee 52 18.20% 127 2
SMU 42 15.90% 126 3
Oklahoma 44 15.40% 125 4
E Michigan 43 15.00% 124 5
Arizona 39 14.80% 123 6
New Mexico St 38 14.40% 122 7
BYU 41 14.30% 121 8
Utah 40 14.00% 120 9
Wisconsin 41 13.30% 119 10
Miami (Ohio) 38 13.30% 117 11
Florida 38 13.30% 117 12
Mississippi 35 13.30% 116 13
South Alabama 37 12.90% 115 14
Texas St 34 12.90% 112 15
Oregon 34 12.90% 112 16
Missouri 34 12.90% 112 17

So what?

The purpose of posting this isn’t to prove that the 2016 season was as bad as it seemed in terms of injuries, although it does do an especially nice job of that. No, the point is to figure out what all of it might mean for the upcoming season. There, Steele comes through again.

According to Steele, the most important conclusion he’s drawn from analyzing this data is this: Over the past decade, there have been 145 teams that both (1) lost 34 starts or more, and (2) had nine or fewer wins. Of those 145 teams, 69% of them did as well or better (measured by win/loss record) the following year, and 57.9% of them did better.

And now you know why I limited the above table to the Top 17. All of them meet the criteria this year that suggests they will do as well or better this fall.

What about NOT having injuries last year?

The other side of the continuum is also what you’d expect, according to Steele. Of 61 teams that lost only five or fewer starts the prior season, 77% had the same or worse record the following year, and 65.6% had worse records.

Not that it matters much to Vols fans, but the teams on the other end of the spectrum are Western Michigan, Louisiana Tech, and . . . Ohio State. The Buckeyes, much like Alabama, may have so much talent on their roster that they are essentially vaccinated against the peril of injuries, but we’ll see.

What does it mean for the Vols in 2017?

So, whether it’s luck or something else, teams that suffer a lot of injuries in one season generally do better the next year, and teams that don’t, generally do worse.

“Generally” is the key word here, of course. If the trend holds, five (31%) of the 17 teams in table up top will still have worse records this season than last, and the Vols could well be one of them.

Plus, college football is a game of relativity. Being who you are matters, but so does playing who you play. So where do the Vols’ 2017 opponents fall on this list heading into the season?

2016 Starters Lost to Injury Total Starts Lost Starts Lost % Starts Lost Rank Poised to Improve Rank
Florida 38 13.30% 117 12
Missouri 34 12.90% 112 17
LSU 32 12.10% 104 24
UMass 31 11.70% 101 26
Alabama 23 7.00% 60 69
South Carolina 16 5.60% 39 90
Georgia Tech 15 5.20% 33 93
Kentucky 12 4.20% 22 106
Vanderbilt 11 3.80% 19 109
Georgia 10 3.50% 10 117
Southern Miss 7 2.40% 5 123

Florida, Missouri, and LSU are positioned to bounce back from the injury bug, much the same as the Vols. Assuming we’re not fretting too much over UMass, everyone else seems somewhat vulnerable on this front, though.

Steele’s data seems to suggest that there’s something more to injuries than just sheer luck, which makes sense. Running full speed into adversity has a way of getting your attention and forcing you to address it, and this data is pretty good evidence that when you have a lot of injuries, you respond by emphasizing injury prevention the following season, and by doing so you improve the situation.

We’ll have to wait and see, of course, but if the 2017 Tennessee Volunteers follow the trend, they could be in for an exciting season.

Does having more time to prepare for Georgia Tech actually matter?

We’re now inside of a month until the Tennessee Volunteers open their 2017 season against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. According to Vegas, the Vols are a slight favorite in the game, but some are rightly concerned about having to play against Paul Johnson’s unusual offense. The conventional wisdom is that Johnson makes his living from beating teams that haven’t had time to prepare for something they don’t see every week, but that having more time to prepare for Georgia Tech matters.

Too many years of lawyering has made me generally skeptical of conventional wisdom, so I wanted to look at the data to see if it supports the theory. Good news, Vols fans: It does.

Season openers

I looked first at Georgia Tech’s season openers during Paul Johnson’s time there, which started in 2008. This actually wasn’t very helpful, as I quickly discovered that the Yellow Jackets generally open their season with a cupcake.

Since 2008, the only ranked team Georgia Tech has played in an opener is #16 Virginia Tech in 2012, a game that they lost. Apart from the Hokies, the only other Power 5 program they’ve opened against in the past nine years is a Boston College team that finished the season 7-6. They won that one.

The other season-opening opponents are what we’ll call non-probative: Jacksonville State (twice), South Carolina State, Western Carolina, Elon, Wofford, and Alcorn State. It should come as no surprise that GT won all of those games, and you really can’t draw any conclusions from it. The choice of opponent was the difference that mattered.

Bowl Games

Bowl games, though, were a different story. Apart from a 2015 season during which the Yellow Jackets went 3-9, they’ve made a bowl game every season since 2008, and they mostly played decent teams. Those opponents included #7 Mississippi State in 2014, #10 Iowa in 2009, LSU in 2008, USC in 2012, Ole Miss in 2013, Kentucky in 2016, and Air Force and Utah in 2010 and 2011.

The Yellow Jackets’ record in those games was 3-5. In addition, two of the wins came against middling 7-5 regular season teams (USC in 2012 and Kentucky last year), and their third win came during the Yellow Jackets excellent 11-3 season in 2014.

So, yeah. Georgia Tech’s bowl games serve as pretty good evidence that teams that have more time to prepare generally get better results against them.

Other Losses

What about Georgia Tech’s “other” losses, meaning the non-season openers and non-bowl games? Do they have anything to offer on the question? Here’s the data on those:

2008: The Yellow Jackets lost three “other” games: Virgnia Tech, Virginia, and #19 North Carolina. The Tar Heels had a bye week before the game.

2009: They lost to #20 Miami and Georgia, and Miami had 10 days to prepare.

2010: They lost six other games, three of which (NC State, Virginia Tech, and Georgia) were against opponents with more than a week to prepare.

2011: Of the four other games they lost, two of them (Virginia, Virginia Tech) came against teams with extra time to prepare. Y’all need to stop giving the Hokies extra time.

2012: They lost to three teams ranked in the Top 15, plus Miami and MTSU. MTSU had a bye before the game.

2013: Lost to #8 Clemson, #14 Miami, Georgia, and Virginia Tech. The Hokies actually beat Georgia Tech on a short turnaround (five days), and Clemson probably didn’t need it, but they had 12 days to prepare.

In their 11-3 season in 2014, they lost to #4 Florida State, North Carolina, and Duke. The Blue Devils had a bye week before the game.

2015: They couldn’t beat anybody anyway, but one of their nine losses came against a team that had 12 days to prepare.

And last season, the Yellow Jackets lost to # 5 Clemson, #14 Miami, #21 North Carolina, and Pitt. This should give you some anxiety that they are probably a pretty good team. But the Miami and North Carolina losses did come after bye weeks for the opposing teams.

So by my count, that’s a total of 13 of 40 losses that came against teams that had extra time to prepare for Paul Johnson’s unusual offense. If you exclude the 2015 season during which their opponents didn’t need extra time to beat them, that number is 12 of 31. Extra time to prepare may have mattered nearly 40% of the time.

A win for conventional wisdom

It’s probably important to note that ACC Coastal teams and Georgia play Georgia Tech every year and therefore have more regular familiarity with the Yellow Jackets than others, such as teams who only meet them in bowl games and other non-conference matchups. So, perhaps the bowl game data is a little more probative than the “other losses” data. But it’s just as important to note that what matters most is how good the teams actually are. The time-to-prepare factor seems to come into play only when the game is between somewhat evenly matched teams.

That’s good news for the Vols, who are likely viewed by most as the better team on paper. While there is some danger in having to prepare for an offense that is out of the ordinary, the data suggests that having extra time to prepare against the Yellow Jackets matters. And so if Tennessee must play Georgia Tech, playing them in a season-opener is a good time to do it. They still need to prove they are the better team, but at least they should be ready.