Tennessee’s Locks & Keys: The Return

 

Some of you who date back to the ancient times of the Tennessee blogosphere will recall the origins of my “Locks & Keys” weekly column on Rocky Top Talk where I give you five keys to the Vols winning their game of the week then give you five college football locks to lay all your money on.

You know, if you could gamble legally, that is.

“But Brad,” you may ask, “wouldn’t that mean it was Keys & Locks??”

Well, yes, but that doesn’t have nearly the same ring to it, does it?

The last L&K I can find that I wrote came way back in November of 2012, the year before Butch Jones took over for Derek Dooley. Back then, opportunity was nowhere, and that was, in retrospect, a perfect slogan for the Vols. Though a bunch of our fans are harrumphing their way through the past 18 months of the Jones era, just think of where we were then versus where we are now.

Back-to-back 9-4 seasons don’t feel quite so bad now, do they?

I left Rocky Top Talk after the ’12 season to join Bleacher Report, and I’m still there, having transitioned from Tennessee writer to SEC featured columnist to national college football columnist. I’ve expanded my knowledge to all realms of the college football world, feeling just as comfortable writing about the Pac-12 and its players as I do the SEC and ACC. But one thing always remains the same:

I still suck at picking games.

With that little intro [read by the little voice in my head that has morphed inexplicably into a Bob Kesling “To the Cheggarboards” tenor] out of the way, let’s get on with the keys.

Perfect fits

If you still have nightmares of Tennessee getting gashed a season ago, and you wake up in cold sweats crying before sucking your thumb in a fetal position over in the corner of your bed, you’re not alone. That happens to me a lot, and the only thing I remember is an evil, laughing Bob Shoop throwing up the “VFL” hand sign before morphing into a Sal Sunseri-being that more resembles Fred Flintstone in my dreams.

*shudder*

Yes, last season was forgettable on the defensive side of the ball, especially the end of the year where teams like Missouri and Kentucky looked like Alabama running the ball against the decimated, porous Tennessee rush “defense.” If the Vols aren’t a whole lot more disciplined against Georgia Tech, they’ll get blown off the field.

I worry about them playing the edge and getting beat on the dive, drilling the quarterback and forgetting the pitch, rinse, repeat. That’s why you fear UT’s linebacker makeup, which is a mixture of talented-but-inexperienced and experienced-but-undynamic. It’s also why you should be concerned about the Vols trotting out four defensive ends that simply haven’t played a lot of football. If I’m Shoop, I play four quality tacklers in the secondary much of the game (Todd Kelly Jr., Nigel Warrior, Micah Abernathy, Rashaan Gaulden) and take my chances. The Vols have to fit the run gaps, have their defensive backs step up in the box and help and play smart, disciplined football.

Find the trench mix

With starting left tackle Drew Richmond suspended for this game, the Vols are even thinner on the exterior of the offensive line than they were during the preseason. Though UT has a lot of experience along the front, the group has been far from consistent this summer for first-year coach Walt Wells.

The Vols need to know what they’ve got heading into that game, and they need to play the best five, regardless of position. That’s likely to be seniors Jashon Robertson and Brett Kendrick, junior Jack Jones, sophomore Marcus Tatum sliding into Richmond’s spot, and freshman Trey Smith.

ESPN college football “analyst” David Pollack — who got owned more than once against the Vols in his Georgia career — called the Vols offensive line “the softest thing in college football” last year in a recent broadcast. If I’m Wells, that’s on the bulletin board, and it’s the last thing I let my linemen see before they trot onto the field. But the bottom line is UT has to prove it isn’t that on the field. The Vols need to get tough and mean, and the unit needs to be a strength. If the O-line plays well, UT will have a strong running game this year.

Let the depth of talent win the game

Paul Johnson boasted heading off the field after last year’s TaxSlayer Bowl win against Kentucky that his Yellow Jackets were 3-0 in the SEC East with Tennessee next. Indeed, Tech earned bragging rights against the division a season ago.

But this is a new year.

The Vols have superior talent this year to Johnson’s team, and there are waves of it, even if much of it is inexperienced. Shoop told the media on Thursday that he was going to play six or seven linebackers. That may seem like a lot, but those guys need to be ready, and they need to do the job. A year ago, Tech outlasted a lot of teams, wearing them down and finishing comeback wins a handful of times. The type of ball-control, run-always offense the Bees play can tire opponents.

The Vols don’t need to get caught up in playing the same 15-16 guys a ton of snaps. They need to utilize their talent and depth and let the recruiting battles Jones has won the past few years shine through.

Strategic strikes

You don’t want to put too much pressure on your first-time starting quarterback, whether it’s Quentin Dormady or Jarrett Guarantano by putting the game on their shoulders early. That wouldn’t be smart at all, especially with some capable running backs.

But the Vols do need to utilize their speed on the perimeter by taking some downfield shots. The Yellow Jackets were 68th in pass defense a season ago, and Tennessee has the weapons to take some downfield shots with strong-armed quarterbacks and some size and strength on the perimeter with guys like Marquez Callaway, Latrell Williams, Tyler Byrd and Joshua Palmer. If Tennessee can take the lid off the defense — something they failed to do consistently with Joshua Dobbs playing quarterback — the offense could expand considerably.

That’s something that needs to happen throughout the season, and it needs to start now.

Big John Studd

Everybody is excited about junior running back John Kelly.

As a matter of fact, the other night in the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast, Kelly was the player we were all most excited about in orange and white this year. In a year with not many certainties, everybody believes Kelly can be depended on. The Vols need to ride him all season and hope he stays healthy.

Think of what his body of work can be when extrapolated across a season’s worth of carries. It could be a big year if UT’s offensive line steps up. Then there are exciting players like freshmen Ty Chandler and Tim Jordan behind him. The Vols need to focus on the running game early this season and work their quarterbacks in slowly. If they can.

LOCKS

Now, it’s onto this week’s LOCKS! Get those wallets ready, boyz! They’ll be busting at the seams before too long! For the record two of my top picks of the week were on Thursday night, which were Ohio State over 56.5 and Central Florida -17. But, alas, they were off the board with the column running today.

  1. Colorado State +5 over Colorado: Maybe Georgia should have hired Mike Bobo instead of Kirby Smart. He looks like a prime candidate to come back to the SEC for a  big job soon, as he’s taken over for Jim McElwain in Fort Collins and picked up right where he left off. Last week, the Rams railed Oregon State, and while the Buffaloes are a different animal than the Beavers, this is a CU team that must replace a lot from last year’s Pac-12 runner-up season. This will be two good coaches going at it, but I like the Rams to be 2-0 vs. the Pac-12 when it’s over.
  2. Wyoming +11.5 over Iowa: If you haven’t heard of Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen, commit the name to memory. He’ll be one of the most elite passers in all of college football this season and a very high draft pick in next year’s NFL Draft. This weekend, he’ll be the guy hoping to lead the Cowboys to an upset bid of the Hawkeyes. They may not complete the deal, but they’ll keep it under the spread.
  3. LSU -13.5 over BYU: The Cougars didn’t excite anybody with a pedestrian 20-6 win over Portland State in Week Zero. Now, they’ve got to travel across the country to take on an upstart Bayou Bengals team in Death Valley? Ugh. That doesn’t bode well for Kalani Sitake’s team. The Fighting Coach Os Prevail. Big.
  4. Michigan -3.5 over Florida: This is the lock of the week. I don’t care how young the Wolverines are and how much talent they lost off last year’s team (11 players drafted in the NFL, in case you’re counting). Jim Harbaugh is recruiting at a high level, and Big Blue is about to be BIG again for a long time. The Wolverines will sputter some in the early season for sure, but this game won’t be one of those. The Gators have suspended 10 players, and that includes some of their few playmakers. Also, they’re starting redshirt freshman Feleipe Franks at quarterback. Michigan will win by two scores.
  5. Tennessee -3 over Georgia Tech: I guess I’ve got to pick this one, but I don’t really think it’s a lock. As a matter of fact, this is going to be the fourth-toughest game on UT’s schedule, in my opinion. But the Vols offense is going to surprise some people this year, and I like Shoop getting months to prepare for this scheme. Of course, I wish Darrin Kirkland was in the lineup, but you can’t have everything.

FINAL VOLS PREDICTION: Tennessee 34, Georgia Tech 24

What Will We Learn On Monday?

There is so much that is unique to playing Georgia Tech, it may be hard to fully believe a lot of what we see on Monday night. Whether Bob Shoop’s defense plays well or plays poorly, you’ll need a couple weeks of seeing them against more traditional offenses to really gauge their overall performance. The Vols are likely to play combinations at linebacker and in the secondary we may not see again all season.

On offense we’re obviously going to learn about the quarterback(s), and plenty of ink will be rightfully spilled on that. But beyond Dormady and Guarantano, what can we learn against Georgia Tech that will be telling for the rest of the non-triple-option season?

Distribution of Carries

John Kelly is a known factor, though both his ridiculous average per carry and the fact most of his carries came against lesser competition last year make us a little unsure where to set the bar for him. But what will be most educational about Tennessee’s running game is what happens behind him.

Carlin Fils-aime was listed second on the depth chart this week, but true freshman Ty Chandler has led the way in preseason buzz. I’m curious to see not just who gets the second team reps, but how many carries the Vols put in their hands.

Throw out last season’s weirdness with Kamara hurt and the whole Jalen Hurd fiasco. If we look at Butch’s first three years with relatively healthy RB’s, how were the carries distributed between the first and second team running backs?

  • 2015:  Jalen Hurd 277 carries, Alvin Kamara 107 (72%/28%)
  • 2014:  Jalen Hurd 190 carries, Marlin Lane 86 (69%/31%)
  • 2013:  Rajion Neal 215 carries, Marlin Lane 101 (68%/32%)

In Butch’s tenure, only Jalen Hurd in 2015 (21.3) has averaged more than 18 carries per game. Are the Vols going to give John Kelly that kind of load? Even if they do, there should be 7-10 carries to go to the backup(s) if history holds. Will Ty Chandler get all of those, or will CFA get his chance as well?

Does this team have a number two wide receiver?

Not counting Ethan Wolf or John Kelly?

Maybe Josh Smith would have been this answer, and he might still play even after a shoulder injury scare in fall camp. But after Jauan Jennings, Tennessee’s depth chart at wide receiver is five flavors of OR. Smith, Tyler Byrd, and Latrell Williams are battling it out in the slot. Meanwhile true freshman Josh Palmer – a three-star Canadian import who was committed to Syracuse three weeks before signing day – is one of the ORs on the outside opposite Jennings, alongside Brandon Johnson.

Perhaps the Vols found a diamond in the Ontario rough. Perhaps his inclusion is more of an indictment on the other guys on the roster, especially those who have been here longer than a few months. Either way, with a new quarterback and new offensive coordinator, will Palmer or any one of these other guys step up Monday night? Or will OR be a multi-game starter at wide receiver?

College football TV schedule and rooting guide for Vols fans

The college football season might have served up a couple of appetizers last week, but it really kicks into gear tonight with Ohio State taking on Indiana. And then it hits full blast Saturday at 3:30 when Florida faces Michigan, reaches fever pitch that night when Alabama and Florida State collide, and continues right on through the Vols meet the Yellow Jackets.

Here are two sets of schedules, the first curated just for Vols fans who don’t have 40 hours to watch football this weekend, and one with the complete schedule in case you’re looking for something in particular.

Enjoy!

College football schedule curated for Vols fans

Thursday, Aug. 31, 2017

Matchup Time (ET) TVTickets How to Watch Root For
(2) Ohio State at Indiana 8:00 pm ESPN Live Indiana

The reason to watch this? It’s football. Actual, real football. Yeah, Indiana’s not beating Ohio State, but . . . it’s football!

Friday, Sept. 1, 2017

Matchup Time (ET) TVTickets How to Watch Root For
(8) Washington at Rutgers 8:00 pm FS1 Channel Hop Rutgers
Utah State at (9) Wisconsin 9:00 pm ESPN Channel Hop Wisconsin

See Thursday, Aug. 31, 2017. It’s football. Just hop back and forth between these two until you fall asleep.

Saturday, Sept. 2, 2017

Matchup Time (ET) TVTickets How to Watch Root For
Akron at (6) Penn State Noon ABC Channel Hop Akron
Kent State at (5) Clemson Noon ESPN Channel Hop Kent State
(11) Michigan vs. (17) Florida (at Arlington, TX) 3:30 pm ABC Live Debatable
Appalachian State at (15) Georgia 6:15 pm ESPN Live, until 8:00 Debatable
(3) Florida State vs. (1) Alabama (at Atlanta, GA) 8:00 pm ABC Live Debatable
BYU vs. (13) LSU (at New Orleans, LA) 9:30 pm ESPN DVR, until after AL/FSU Debatable

The noon slot is just an opportunity to see a couple of Top 10 teams. Things really pick up at 3:30, when Florida and Michigan kick off. In the window between that game and the day’s main event at 8:00 (Alabama vs. Florida State), you get a chance to see future opponent Georgia. And if you still haven’t had enough by the end of AL-FSU, you can fall asleep to LSU/BYU late.

There’s a lot of room for debate on who to root for when an SEC rival plays an out-of-conference foe. Will and I had this very debate just after recording the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast last night. He’s generally of the mind that he wants his rivals to be at full strength and to have their best-possible resume when Tennessee faces them. That has a certain appeal. If you win, you’re bragging rights are greater. I embrace that philosophy much of the time, but sometimes it’s in conflict with what might actually improve Tennessee’s chances to win, which is the most important thing. If Florida losing to Michigan somehow improves Tennessee’s chances to beat them in a couple of weeks, perhaps by eating away at their confidence or something, then I’m for that. Also, the recruiting contest never sleeps, and anything that might make it more difficult for a rival to recruit, well, I’m for that, too. So right now, I’m sort of rooting against all SEC teams except Tennessee.

Sunday, Sept. 3, 2017

Matchup Time (ET) TVTickets How to Watch Root For
(22) West Virginia vs. (21) Virginia Tech (at Landover, MD) 7:30 pm ABC Live Irrelevant

This is a Top 25 matchup, so could be worth watching if you haven’t used up all of your football credit with the family.

Monday, Sept. 4, 2017

Matchup Time (ET) TVTickets How to Watch Root For
(25) Tennessee vs. Georgia Tech (at M-B Stadium) 8:00 pm ESPN Live Vols!

The entire schedule

And here’s the entire schedule for the weekend for reference.

Thursday, Aug. 31, 2017

Matchup Time (ET) TVTickets
FIU at UCF 6:00 pm CBSSN
Presbyterian at Wake Forest 6:30 pm ACCNExtra
Austin Peay at Cincinnati 7:00 pm ESPN3
Buffalo at Minnesota 7:00 pm BTN
Elon at Toledo 7:00 pm ESPN3
Rhode Island at Central Michigan 7:00 pm ESPN3
Tennessee State at Georgia State 7:00 pm ESPN3
Holy Cross at UConn 7:30 pm SNY/ESPN3
North Dakota at Utah 7:30 pm Pac-12N
Tulsa at (10) Oklahoma State 7:30 pm FS1
FAMU at Arkansas (at Little Rock, AR) 8:00 pm SECN
(2) Ohio State at Indiana 8:00 pm ESPN
Sacramento State at Idaho 9:00 pm ESPN3/ALT
ULM at Memphis 9:00 pm CBSSN
New Mexico State at Arizona State 10:30 pm Pac-12N

Friday, Sept. 1, 2017

Matchup Time (ET) TVTickets
Fordham at Army 6:00 pm CBSSN
Charlotte at Eastern Michigan 6:30 pm ESPN3
CCSU at Syracuse 7:00 pm ACCNExtra
Colorado vs. Colorado State (at Denver, CO) 8:00 pm Pac-12N
Navy at Florida Atlantic 8:00 pm ESPNU
(8) Washington at Rutgers 8:00 pm FS1
Utah State at (9) Wisconsin 9:00 pm ESPN
Boston College at NIU 9:30 pm CBSSN

Saturday, Sept. 2, 2017

Matchup Time (ET) TVTickets
Akron at (6) Penn State Noon ABC
Ball State at Illinois Noon BTN
Bowling Green at Michigan State Noon ESPNU
Kent State at (5) Clemson Noon ESPN
Maryland at (23) Texas Noon FS1
Missouri State at Missouri Noon SECN
Wyoming at Iowa Noon BTN
California at North Carolina 12:20 pm ACCN
Bethune-Cookman at (18) Miami, FL 12:30 pm RSN
Youngstown State at Pittsburgh 1:00 pm ACCNExtra
Portland State at Oregon State 2:00pm Pac-12N
VMI at Air Force 2:00 pm ESPN3
NC State vs. South Carolina (at Charlotte, NC) 3:00 pm ESPN
Alabama A&M at UAB 3:30 pm Stadium
(11) Michigan vs. (17) Florida (at Arlington, TX) 3:30 pm ABC
Nevada at Northwestern 3:30 pm BTN
Temple at Notre Dame 3:30 pm NBC
UTEP at (7) Oklahoma 3:30 pm FOX
William & Mary at Virginia 3:30 pm ACCNExtra
Troy at Boise State 3:45 pm ESPNU
Charleston Southern at Mississippi State 4:00 pm SECN
Eastern Washington at Texas Tech 4:00 pm FSN
Kentucky at Southern Miss 4:00 pm CBSSN
Stony Brook at (19) USF 4:00 pm ESPN3
Western Michigan at (4) USC 5:15 pm Pac-12N
Albany at Old Dominion 6:00 pm ESPN3
James Madison at East Carolina 6:00 pm ESPN3
NC Central at Duke 6:00 pm ACCNExtra
Appalachian State at (15) Georgia 6:15 pm ESPN
Miami, OH at Marshall 6:30 pm Stadium /
Central Arkansas at (20) Kansas State 7:00 pm K-StateHD.TV
Eastern Kentucky at WKU 7:00 pm FloSports.TV /
Hampton at Ohio 7:00 pm ESPN3
Houston at UTSA Postponed
Houston Baptist at Texas State 7:00 pm ESPN3
Lamar at North Texas 7:00 pm ESPN3
Liberty at Baylor 7:00 pm FS2
Northwestern State at Louisiana Tech 7:00 pm ESPN3
SE Louisiana at UL Lafayette 7:00 pm ESPN3
SE Missouri at Kansas 7:00 pm JTV
Stephen F. Austin at SMU 7:00 pm ESPN3
UMass at Coastal Carolina 7:00 pm ESPN3
Cal Poly at San Jose State 7:30 pm No TV
Georgia Southern at (12) Auburn 7:30 pm SECN
(16) Louisville vs. Purdue (at Indianapolis, IN) 7:30 pm FOX
South Alabama at Ole Miss 7:30 pm ESPNU
Abilene Christian at New Mexico 8:00 pm No TV
Arkansas State at Nebraska 8:00 pm BTN
(3) Florida State vs. (1) Alabama (at Atlanta, GA) 8:00 pm ABC
Grambling State at Tulane 8:00 pm ESPN3
Jackson State at TCU 8:00 pm FSN
Northern Iowa at Iowa State 8:00 pm Cyclones.tv
Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee 8:00 pm CBSSN
Southern Utah at Oregon 8:15 pm Pac-12N
UC Davis at San Diego State 8:30 pm Stadium /
Howard at UNLV 9:00 pm MWN
BYU vs. (13) LSU (at New Orleans, LA) 9:30 pm ESPN
Incarnate Word at Fresno State 10:00 pm No TV
Montana State at (24) Washington State 10:30 pm FS1
NAU at Arizona 11:00 pm Pac-12N
Western Carolina at Hawaii 11:59 pm Spectrum PPV

Sunday, Sept. 3, 2017

Matchup Time (ET) TVTickets
Texas A&M at UCLA 7:30 pm FOX
(22) West Virginia vs. (21) Virginia Tech (at Landover, MD) 7:30 pm ABC

Monday, Sept. 4, 2017

Matchup Time (ET) TVTickets
(25) Tennessee vs. Georgia Tech (at M-B Stadium) 8:00 pm ESPN

Statsy preview: Georgia Tech’s offense is a locomotive on a zero-turn lawnmower

Most weeks in this space and time slot, we’ll be firing up the Statsy Preview Calculator to see what it says about Tennessee’s upcoming matchup and then concluding that it’s a crazy, stupid machine and making our own predictions anyway. But the SPC is just now emerging from its long summer hibernation, and it is raging mad, ravenous for data. Alas, the cupboard is bare before the first kickoff.

So this week instead, we’ll just take a peek at Georgia Tech’s data from last year to see what, if anything, it can tell us about what to expect Monday night in Atlanta in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff.

The first question, of course, is how similar the 2017 team is to the 2016 version. The Yellow Jackets ranked 29th on SB Nation’s preseason returning production chart back when it was published in January this year and ninth on Phil Steele’s returning starters chart when it was published in February, but since then their most productive rusher, Dedrick Mills, has been kicked off the team, and their next most productive rusher, Clinton Lynch, is still questionable for the game. That would suggest the answer is “mostly no,” but then again, Georgia Tech is one of those teams where the Xs and Os might actually compete with the Jimmys and Joes for importance.

So let’s look at last year’s data for Georgia Tech.

Offensive Rankings

Offensive observations. First, as you’d expect, Georgia Tech’s rushing offense is a locomotive built on top one of those zero-turn lawn mowers. Last year, they averaged 258.1 yards per game. So imagine a John Deere tricked out by NASCAR coming at you with sharp blades spinning. That really should be their logo.

[bctt tweet=”Georgia Tech’s rushing offense is a locomotive built on top one of those zero-turn lawn mowers.” username=”GamedayRockyTop”]

On the other hand, the Yellow Jackets are almost certainly not going to throw an interception, most likely because they’re not going to throw the ball very much at all. They finished last season first in number of interceptions thrown and near the bottom in passing yards gained. But look at how many yards they get on the few occasions that they do entrust the ball to the gods of the air: Over 20 yards per completion, good for second in the nation. I’ve heard coach Jones and the players say a lot this week that they need to guard against being lulled into boredom on defense. It’s true: Georgia Tech sings you a lullaby on offense and then throws it over your head when doze off.

[bctt tweet=”Georgia Tech sings you a lullaby on offense and then throws it over your head when you doze off.” username=”GamedayRockyTop”]

Defensive Rankings

Defensive observations. These numbers are not nearly as likely to induce nightmares. Not particularly good overall, against the run, or against the pass. Terrible on third down and not much better on first. Not going to sack the quarterback or tackle you for a loss. Okay, good.

Special Teams and Turnovers Rankings

Special teams and turnovers observations. From this, it appears that the Yellow Jackets are a disciplined bunch from a penalties perspective, but maybe not so much from a turnovers standpoint. And did they really block four kicks last season? Something like that matters when points are at a premium in a run-heavy football game.

Players to Watch

The following is last year’s stats from last year’s roster. Guys who are no longer on the team are noted.

Offensive Observations. Well, Matthew Jordan better be productive, is all I have to say. Of course, he’d not even been named the starting quarterback as of yesterday, so you know.

Defensive Observations. So, it looks like the twins are maybe the main guys to watch out for, especially for Tennessee’s new quarterback.

Special Teams Observations. Redshirt senior J.J. Green ran a kickoff back for a touchdown last year against Pitt, so he’s definitely capable back there.

The Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast: Previewing Team 121

The Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast makes its triumphant return. Will Shelton, Brad Shepard, and I discuss Team 121, defensive end and pass rushing concerns (those guys are worry-warts!), and a host of other Vols-related topics. Select the latest episode from the widget below to listen.

Some of the links we reference in the podcast:

Vols’ just-released depth chart includes a few surprises

Butch Jones released the season’s first depth chart, and although it’s largely what you’d expect, it does include a few surprises.

The expected

The depth chart shown in Simonton’s tweet was obviously printed before they wanted to announce Drew Richmond’s suspension, but it does make clear who they thought were the best five offensive linemen. Jashon Robertson, a natural left guard but also probably the team’s best offensive lineman, slides to center so that either Jack Jones or Venzell Boulware can be the next guy in at left guard. That leaves out Coleman Thomas, although Jones did praise Thomas at his press conference today and said that he actually could still start at center. But this lineup appears to be the coaching staff’s preference at the moment.

Also not news is that tight end Ethan Wolf, receiver Jajuan Jennings, and running back John Kelly are starting. Nor is it really news that the coaches aren’t going to name the starting quarterback and will instead let Quinten Dormady and Jarrett Guarantano duke it out all the way through pre-game warmups.

The defensive side of the ball is mostly not surprising at all, either, except for the fact that they apparently intend to play 12 guys. Ba dump bump. But seriously, linebacker Austin Smith and nickelback Rashaan Gaulden are both listed as starters, but only one will play at any given time, depending on whether the team is in a standard 4-3 or a nickel package.

With the exception of the free safety position (we’ll get to that in a minute), everything else on defense is what you’d expect: Jonathan Kongbo and Darrell Taylor at defensive end, Kahlil McKenzie and Kendall Vickers at defensive tackle, and Colton Jumper filling in for Darrin Kirkland at middle linebacker with Cortez McDowell at weakside. The two cornerbacks are Justin Martin and Emmanuel Moseley, although I wouldn’t be surprised if Rashaan Gaulden displaced one of them in a standard 4-3.

The mild surprises

The only real surprise on the defensive side of the ball is at the safety positions. Nigel Warrior is given the top spot at strong safety, but the free safety position is apparently still an either/or between Todd Kelly Jr. and Micah Abernathy.

On offense, five players are apparently still competing for the two receiver spots not occupied by Jajuan Jennings. The first name you see, though, is true freshman Josh Palmer, the guy about whom we said last week you’re going to become an instant fan. Jones is apparently also a fan, as he spent a good 60 seconds on Palmer without being asked a single question about him. Brandon Johnson is slotted as the main competitor with Palmer for that spot.

There are three names at the last receiver spot: Latrell Williams, Tyler Byrd, and Josh Smith. It’s a mild surprise (to me, anyway) to see Williams ahead of Byrd, but it’s quite surprising to see Josh Smith’s name there at all, as he was feared injured for an extended period of time. Yes, it turned out that the injury wasn’t quite as severe as originally thought, but up until today it appeared that the earliest Smith would be ready would be the Florida game. You’d be forgiven if you thought that the depth chart was a typo or maybe even error by deadline, but Jones said today in his press conference that there was a chance that Smith could be ready Monday night. I don’t actually see that happening, but anything suggesting that Smith’s going to be ready sooner rather than later is good news.

You get the feeling from Jones’ press conference today that he’s still being a bit cagey about naming starters. This is likely an extended hangover from last year’s misery caused by not having the Plan B guys ready when they were needed. He wants to make sure they are kept motivated. Most of the time when Jones is asked about it, he talks about how much of a good thing it is to have guys continuing to compete right through kickoff. I think that’s mostly what’s happening here, and I think it’s a smart strategy.

 

Vols offensive tackle Drew Richmond suspended for season-opener against Georgia Tech

Butch Jones announced at this afternoon’s press conference that offensive tackle Drew Richmond has been suspended for a violation of team rules and will not play in the season-opener against Georgia Tech on Monday:

“Drew Richmond will not make the trip to Atlanta,” said Jones. “He will be suspended for a violation of team rules. If he does everything that he needs to do, he’ll be available and he’ll be back for Indiana State.”

This is likely the bad news we said we were expecting last week, and all things considered it isn’t terrible. The tackles for the Georgia Tech game will be Brett Kendrick and Marcus Tatum, both of whom should be just fine, and in any event, the bigger challenge against Tech is on the other side of the ball.

Gameday Today: Six quarterbacks in play for the Chick-fil-A Kickoff

 

We’re five days away, and the options at quarterback for the Chick-fil-A Kickoff have been narrowed down all the way to six people. Also, everyone has an opinion on the outcome, but nobody’s putting any money on it. This and more in today’s Vols link roundup.

Georgia Tech

247Sports says the smart call on the Tennessee-Georgia Tech game is to not bet any money on it due to neither team having named a starting quarterback yet. Well, that’s not exactly accurate: Georgia Tech has published a depth chart that identifies the starter as Matthew Jordan. Or TaQuon Marshall. . . . Or Lucas Johnson or Jay Jones.

I’m going to check again tomorrow to see if maybe I’ve made the list.

And, of course, Butch Jones hasn’t announced yet whether he’ll be starting Quinten Dormady or Jarrett Guarantano, so that’s six potential quarterbacks for the season-opener.

So yeah, most folks don’t have any firm feeling about this game, but that doesn’t stop any of us from making our picks now, does it? A couple of 247Sports staff members have picked Tennessee to cover the three-point spread, even with linebacker Darrin Kirkland out. After all, Georgia Tech is without running back Dedrick Mills, who was dismissed from the team last week, and might also be without running back Clinton Lynch, who’s not been practicing.

Quick hits

  • We posted our sort of unique method for baselining preseason expectations this morning. I’m settling in at 9-3 and won’t be surprised by 8-4.
  • The staff at GoVols247 have all weighed in with their own predictions, and they’re all saying 8-4 overall and 4-4 in the SEC. They’re also marveling at the effectiveness of the buzzkill that was the end of the 2016 season, noting that many Vols fans are still wandering around in apathy even a mere five days away from kickoff.
  • Paul Finebaum, though, thinks that Tennessee is going to have a big year, so there’s that. Which is nice.
  • The Times Free Press seems to maybe sort of agree, as long as they do three things: Start well, stay healthy, and value the football. Good goals.
  • Tennessee is sending the Big Orange Caravan to Atlanta for the Chick-fil-A Kickoff game, and it’s just what it sounds like: a pre-game party for Vols fans. If you’re going to be in Atlanta, you should be there.
  • I do love offensive coordinator Larry Scott’s no-nonsense answer to the question about his expectations for the Vols opener. Scott said, “Realistic expectations are to win — to score points and win, that’s the realistic expectation.” He sounds grumpy. Good.
  • 247Sports thinks you should expect a breakout year for Vols wide receiver Brandon Johnson.
  • Tight end Ethan Wolf is loving the competitive depth on the team this fall and says that it should help them overcome any injury attrition.
  • When former 5-star recruit Jonathan Kongbo says that fellow defensive end Darrell Taylor is more athletic than Kongbo, it speaks volumes. Kongbo is also trying not to sound overconfident, but he can’t keep regular confident from escaping his lips: “I don’t think there will be a drop-off. I’ll just say that.”
  • We’ve been hearing all offseason about the growing maturity of Vols cornerback Justin Martin, and Martin recently informed his Twitter followers that he’ll be avoiding the social media channel starting Sunday because he doesn’t want it to be a distraction. If you don’t think that’s a big deal, stop what you’re doing right now and count the people around you currently staring at their phones instead of lifting weights or studying playbooks. #GetOffMyLawnAndYourPhone
  • CBSSports has an amusing and informational post of 25 things to watch this college football season, including a “Netflix or Ole Miss” quiz. Examples: “House of Cards,” “Stranger Things,” and “Walking Dead.”