Last Monday night, it was “Football Time in Tennessee,” but only kinda sorta because “Football Time for Tennessee in Georgia this week because we’re on the road to start the season” sounds like a Daniel Tiger song, cramming square peg words into round hole melodies. You’ll be singing it ALL DAY LONG, but it’s never going to make the Top 40.

But today, it’s actually all caps “FOOTBALL TIME IN TENNESSEE” for real, as the Vols host the Indiana State Sycamores in their home opener at Neyland Stadium this afternoon at 4:00 p.m.

The SEC Network has the broadcast, and David Neal, Matt Stinchcomb, and Dawn Davenport are the broadcast personalities.

This is your Gameday on Rocky Top game thread. If you haven’t signed up for the Guessing Game yet, you can do that here all the way through kickoff.

Go Vols!

We hope you’re heading up/down/over to Neyland Stadium for the Vols’ home opener this afternoon, but there’s a fair amount of other games to watch today as well. Hang out with us here while you’re watching.

Note that the several games have been canceled, postponed, and/or moved due to Hurricane Irma, including the Florida game against Northern Colorado that was supposed to kick at noon, so be wary of any college football TV schedule posts live out there on the internet.

There will be a separate game thread for the Vols, which will go live later.

By now, you know the drill. If you don’t, check last week’s column for details. The long and short of it is we pick five keys for the Vols to beat this week’s opponent (which isn’t going to be that difficult, considering this week’s opponent is the Fightin’ Larry Birds of Indiana State) and then we give you five locks to place money on if gambling were legal.

Last week, I went 2-3, but that was a joke. In actuality, I’d have gone 4-1 because two of the games I flat-out LOVED were on Thursday night. Even though I wrote the column before then, it wouldn’t have done you guys any good, so I didn’t include them.

All in all, I went 19-6 ATS last week. It just so happened half of those losses were games I really, really liked, which is the reason why you shouldn’t gamble, kids.

I fell into the idiot pit of watching Week Zero and making too much out of a good offense playing a bad team, and that’s why I picked Colorado State to cover against rival Colorado. I thought the Buffaloes would have a hard time replacing all that defensive talent and coordinator Jim Leavitt, but they didn’t. Also, quarterback Steven Montez looked pretty darn good in a 17-3 win. So, yeah, that one was bad.

I like Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen a ton, but the Cowboys threw up a duck fart against Iowa, so we’re going to pretend those two games didn’t happen. Bad, bad losses. As for the Vols, I was worried about that game throughout the offseason, but I’m not complaining one bit. That one-point lead didn’t win me any of your hearts picking games, but I’m just happy UT is 1-0.

Michigan and LSU were free money.

With that, it’s onto Tennessee’s keys this week. Since it would be a shocker of all shockers for the Vols to lose to the Sycamores, let’s take a look at five keys the Vols need to this game that will help them prepare for next week’s game against Florida at the Swamp. Any practice UT gets this week should give them a leg up on the Gators, who had to cancel their game against Northern Colorado this Saturday because of the threat of Hurricane Irma.

Prayers for all those folks in her path.

Let’s see how the Vols did on last week’s keys in their 42-41 double-overtime win over Georgia Tech before we move on.

• Fit the run: Though the first few series were fine, Tennessee did not do a good job of this throughout the night. The Vols were gashed up the middle and beat off the edge. It should have cost them the game. FAIL.
• Find the right mix on the O-line: This looked ugly early, but as the game went on, Tennessee’s offensive line looked good, even without Drew Richomond. Senior center Jashon Robertson and freshman guard Trey Smith were impressive, and quarterback Quinten Dormady wasn’t sacked once. SUCCESS!
• Let the depth of talent win the game: This did NOT happen. With all the defensive linemen and receivers standing over there watching, I wanted UT to use more of its younger players to give some of the older guys breaks. What ultimately won the game were timely turnovers and offensive execution. I can’t give this one a thumb’s up. FAIL.
• Strategic strikes: UT didn’t have to throw the ball downfield a lot, but when it absolutely had to have a big play, Dormady went up top to Marquez Callaway, who made a leaping grab in front of two defenders. For that play alone, and for him making a quick pass and turning into a 50-yard score, this one is a SUCCESS!
• Ride John Kelly: At one point in the late third quarter, Kelly inexplicably had just 10 carries. But in the fourth quarter and overtime, he finished with 93 rushing yards. He went beastmode, and kudos to offensive coordinator Larry Scott for giving him the ball. SUCCESS!

Here are Tennessee’s keys:

How about a little rotation, Shoop?

Defensive linemen Jonathan Kongbo, Darrell Taylor and — gasp! — Kahlil McKenzie were snap warriors last week, all playing more than 75 plays on defense. That is ridiculous and inexplicable against an offense like Georgia Tech’s. If Monday night’s lucky win over the Yellow Jackets was a “chess match” as Bob Shoop called it, the UT second-year defensive coordinator was playing checkers. Or patty-cake. Or something else.

He needs to start earning his money and start trusting his players. The best way for the Vols to build depth along the defensive front and begin relying on guys like Quay Picou, Alexis Johnson, Deandre Johnson, Matthew Butler and Kivon Bennett is to PLAY THEM AND LET THEM TAKE THEIR LUMPS! What was going to happen against Georgia Tech? Give up 535 rushing yards? Oh yeah, that happened anyway. This week against the Sycamores, the Vols need to give kids important reps and get them ready to rotate against Florida.

Preach progressions

There’s nothing wrong with the way Quinten Dormady played in his debut, especially once he settled down in the second half. But the Vols targeted Marquez Callaway an awful lot because he proved he was capable of taking over the game. That’s OK. But Dormady needs to start developing trust in other guys beginning this week.

At times, he looked toward sophomore receiver Brandon Johnson’s way against Tech, but they just didn’t hook up much. Latrell Williams played a lot and played well without having a catch. Freshman Joshua Palmer looked the part but didn’t break through, and guys like Tyler Byrd and Jordan Murphy can help, too. Jauan Jennings isn’t coming back for a while, if at all this season. UT is going to need more than just Callaway and tight end Ethan Wolf in big games.

This is an ideal game for Dormady to read through his progressions and get other guys integrated into the game plan.

Start stronger

Everybody wants to see this.

This season started out the way the Vols played a lot of last year: Getting off to sluggish starts and frantically coming back in the second half. Eventually, that caught up with UT toward the end of the season. Tennessee needs to put together four quarters, and that’s not speaking in cliche, either. There’s no reason for the starters to be out there more than a half in this game, which means they need to take care of business.

Get your reps. Get points on the board. Get out. That needs to happen in Neyland Stadium this weekend.

Build Up Bituli and Co.

I love Colton Jumper. You love Colton Jumper. Listen: We all love Colton Jumper.

But there shouldn’t be any Tennessee defense on Saturday without him in it. When the starters roll out there, Daniel Bituli and his 23 tackles against Tech needs to be out there. If you’re worried about him lining people up as a middle linebacker, this is the game to get him in there and see what he can do.

If he can’t play there as well as Jumper, you’ve got to get Cortez McDowell off the field and Bituli on it. That’s the bottom line. UT’s best defense is one with Bituli in it.

Also, guys who are more athletic on the second level such as sophomore Quart’e Sapp and freshman Will Ignont need to play a ton against the Sycamores. It’s the same thing as that first key for Shoop. How are you going to build faith in anybody with them standing on the sideline?

Don’t Get Anybody Hurt

I thought about putting something about playing Jarrett Guarantano here, but whatever. He’s going to play, and he should. We all need to get over him pouting on national TV on Monday night. He’s a 19-year-old kid.

He is the backup quarterback, and he needs plenty of reps on Saturday along with all the other backups. The Vols don’t need to get ANYBODY important hurt on Saturday. They don’t need to pad the stats and wind up with a season-killing injury to a guy like John Kelly or Darrell Taylor. Let those guys play their half, don’t do anything crazy, and keep your fingers crossed that they don’t have something freak happen.

UT has been snakebit the past two seasons with injuries. That needs to stop.

LOCKS

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I’m 2-3, and that’s all that matters. No matter what I want to brag about the 19-6 overall ATS. That doesn’t matter. Y’all don’t see my board; only these picks. I failed you.

We’ll make up for it this week. I’m giving you two extra games because I LOVE two extra games. Deal with it! Gotta get that winning percentage up!

1. UTSA +16.5 over Baylor: Am I forgetting, or did this Baylor team just get beat by freaking Liberty? Now, they have to play Frank Wilson’s up-and-coming Roadrunners team, and I’m getting SIXTEEN AND A HALF POINTS?!?!? Something smells fishy about this one, but I really like Wilson, and I really like this line.
2. Oklahoma State -28 over South Alabama: I’m gonna pick the Cowboys to cover in every game until they don’t cover. Last week, Shea Patterson threw for a bazillion yards in a 47-27 win over the Jags last week. Imagine what Mason Rudolph is gonna do.
3. Iowa -3 over Iowa State: Last week, the Hawkeyes dominated a good Wyoming team with a great quarterback 24-3. It was never close. Now, they must travel to Ames to take on a rival. They may win this one 17-7, but the bottom line is the Cyclones can’t score enough for it to matter.
4. Tulane and Navy over 47.5: Love rushing yards? This one’s for you. Willie Fritz was a cover machine when he was at Georgia Southern, and he has 16 starters back from his first Green Wave team that went 4-8. Navy runs a little, too. You’re telling me these teams won’t score seven touchdowns between them? Not buying it.
5. Kansas -5.5 over Central Michigan: The Chippewas needed three overtimes to score 30 points and beat Rhode Island in the opening weekend. The Jayhawks obliterated that same team a year ago. The Jayhawks are going to start 2-0 for the first time in what seems like forever. This one’s my favorite of the week. Easy money.
6. South Carolina +2.5 over Missouri: Ugh, this is a tough one. But I’ve been riding South Carolina for a long while now. I think this Tigers defense is absolutely putrid, and while both defenses were garbage in the first game, the Gamecocks have more talent on that side of the ball. They’ll get one more stop and win outright as the underdog at Mizzou.
7. Houston -1 over Arizona: This is my second-favorite game of the weekend. I think Tom Herman left a ton of talent for Major Applewhite, and I believe former Texas A&M quarterback Kyle Allen will start and be stellar for the Cougars. Plus, UH has superior defensive talent. They’ll win on the road.

How did Tennessee’s performance against Georgia Tech affect our outlook on the rest of the season? In this week’s win probability (and you can still fill in your own at the bottom of that post), our readers nudge the Vols to the right side of eight wins:

Opponent	Win Probability
Georgia Tech	100.0%
Indiana State	99.1%
at Florida	57.5%
UMass	98.1%
Georgia	51.4%
South Carolina	64.7%
at Alabama	12.4%
at Kentucky	70.0%
Southern Miss	87.9%
at Missouri	71.8%
LSU	33.8%
Vanderbilt	69.1%
WINS	8.16

Most noteworthy here:  our readers now find Florida a more likely victory than Georgia. But the rest of the numbers show this has more to do with what the Gators did than what we saw from the Vols.

Again, it’s difficult to make meaningful observations about the rest of the season from a week one date with the triple option. The good news: it’s Indiana State this Saturday, which means instead of going from a grueling overtime opener to the spectacle of Bristol like last year, the Vols get a much-needed visit from an FCS school with a losing record. The bad news: I’m not sure how much we’re going to learn this week either.

What is most exciting in the week two syllabus?

John Kelly, Marquez Callaway, Ethan Wolf, and…?

When Jauan Jennings went down, Quinten Dormady and Tennessee’s passing game went three places. To no surprise in the Butch Jones offense, the running back played a major role: John Kelly led the team with five receptions. Marquez Callaway was a revelation with 115 yards and two scores. And Ethan Wolf was inches away from what would have been his most productive day in a Tennessee uniform.

Will we see anyone begin to emerge behind those three? Brandon Johnson caught three passes but for only 14 yards underneath against the Yellow Jackets. Josh Palmer started but finished with just one catch. Does Josh Smith play? Can Tyler Byrd get on the same page with the quarterback(s)? Do we see more from some of the backups? The more options the Gators have to prepare for, the better.

How do the Vols rotate on defense?

Plenty of conversation in this short week has emerged around the number of snaps some of Tennessee’s defenders played. The Vols had five of the nation’s Top 50 defenders in total tackles in week one. This is in part because Georgia Tech had 96 offensive snaps in a double overtime game. But it’s also because, despite this, the Vols didn’t really rotate a lot of defenders.

Ten of UT’s starting eleven defenders had at least six tackles; Justin Martin was the odd man out. But behind the starters, no one recorded more than three total tackles. 116 of Tennessee’s 131 total tackles came from those ten players.

The drop-off is even more striking by position:

• Linebacker:  Bituli, Jumper, & McDowell 54 combined tackles; Elliott Berry 1, Quart’e Sapp 1
• Defensive End:  Kongbo & Taylor 19 combined tackles; Kyle Phillips 2
• Safety:  Abernathy & Warrior 22 combined tackles; Todd Kelly Jr. 3

The numbers would have been striking at defensive tackle as well had Kendal Vickers not gone out with an injury. Against 96 plays and 40+ minutes of possession, the Vols rolled with their starters all night long.

The million dollar question here:  was that because the coaches didn’t trust any of the backups against Georgia Tech’s offense, or don’t trust the backups period?

They’ll trust them plenty against Indiana State, and those big names up there could use the rest. We won’t know how deep Bob Shoop and Butch Jones’ trust goes until Gainesville. But seeing who the fourth options are at defensive end, defensive tackle, and safety will be of note, and we’ll get that information this Saturday.

We all know the injury narrative from last season. I’d like to know if guys like Kyle Phillips, Quart’e Sapp, Alexis Johnson, and any number of freshmen can help this team before they have to help this team.

Resting Heart Rate

Months ago you could already see how much healthier Tennessee’s schedule was going to be this year. But I have felt it this week, and you probably have too. We got so used to our hearts beating at 150 bpm every week last fall, we bounced right back to it against Georgia Tech like an old friend who is trying to kill you. But thanks to no Bristol and no Florida-Georgia-A&M-Bama gauntlet this year, we can breathe a little deeper between Saturdays. We’ll get to the Gators. But first, man, we need some Indiana State.

The Statsy Preview Calculator is still shuffling about in front of the coffee pot murmuring something about being awake so early in the season, so we’re going to leave it be for another week until it regains its happy disposition.

And what are one game’s worth of FCS stats going to tell us, anyway? So, let’s just take a quick look at what Indiana State did last year just to see what, if anything, they did well at their own level.

The 2016-17 Indiana State Sycamores Offense

 

Offensive observations. What we’re looking at is a pass-heavy middle-of-the-road FCS team. The passing offense was decent, but the rushing game was non-existent, and if they didn’t get it done on first or second down, they didn’t get it done. That’s good news for a tired Vols defense looking to gain some confidence heading into the Florida game next week.

The 2016-17 Indiana State Sycamores Defense

 

Defensive observations. Not to pile on here, but apart from the apparent ability to take turnovers to the house, those numbers suggest that the Sycamores appear to play defense a little bit like trees on golf courses. Maybe they’ll present a problem if you try to run right through a bunch of them huddled together, but if you stay on the fairway, you should be fine.

The 2016-17 Indiana State Sycamores Special Teams

 

Special Teams observations. Indiana State actually looks like they could be a bit salty on special teams, however. They can block kicks and punts, and they do a pretty good job on kickoff returns, both returning them and covering them.

The 2016-17 Indiana State Sycamores – Turnovers and Penalties

 

Turnovers and penalties observations. I’m not sure exactly what to make of these turnover numbers. It appears that Indiana State had some excitement in the form of balls on the ground last season, as they recovered a whole bunch of them, but also lost a bunch of them themselves.

Players to Watch

As mentioned earlier, the Sycamores’ passing game appears to be the strength of the team, and the reason for that is quarterback Isaac Harker, who’s returning this season as a redshirt junior. Harker passed for 2,559 yards and 19 touchdowns last season. Unfortunately for Harker, his top two receivers from last year — Robert Tonyan and Miles Thompson — are gone, and it showed in his first game of the 2017 season. Coaches actually benched Harker after the first half in favor of Cade Sparks, who also struggled. In all, four guys had a total of seven receptions the entire game.

The running game was a different story last week, though. The team lost running back Roland Genesy, their leading rusher from last year, but Lamonte Booker, who was a starter before missing the 2016 season with a knee injury, is back for a redshirt senior season. Booker had 154 yards on 31 carries last week against Eastern Illinois, so he’s no pushover.

On defense, no one really stands out. Defensive end Kenyota Rollins had three sacks and nine tackles for loss last season but didn’t even start last week. Senior defensive lineman Evan Gill did get his name attached to three assists on sacks, and two other guys — sophomore linebacker Inoke Moala and junior defensive back De’Jaun Tyson — each had a sack of their own.

Somebody’s in for a long day

As I wrote in the preseason magazine, Indiana State is staring down a major challenge. As an FCS team that went 4-7 overall and 2-6 in conference last season, they’re heading into Neyland Stadium with a new head coach and not enough returning starters to take on the Tennessee Volunteers. If the Big Orange struggles against the Sycamores, it will be cause for concern.

The bad news for Week 2 of the college football season is that somebody decided to schedule all of the best games in the same time slot. The good news for Vols fans is that that time slot is Saturday night, and you probably have time to get home from the Tennessee game to channel hop your evening away.

Thursday, September 7

 

Really, if you have something to do this evening, you might want to just do that instead of watching a game on Facebook Live. Then again, you might want to watch it just so you can tell your kids you remember the days when you watched football games on a television.

Friday, September 8

 

Ditto Friday, I guess. I mean, seriously, how did we go from having a week’s worth of good college football games spread out over five days the first week to cramming it all into four hours Saturday night?

On the other hand, if you want to tune in to see Mike “I’m an old man now, I’m 50” Gundy, feel free.

Gameday, September 9

 

Okay, let’s talk about a few things here. We’ve had that discussion about whether and under what circumstances to root for other SEC teams once this season already. As you can see from that table up there, I’m rooting for SEC West teams this week, but I’m on the fence about SEC East rivals this week. We can probably all agree that rooting for whatever outcome is best for Tennessee is the proper thing to do, but what’s best for Tennessee is difficult to determine.

So, which non-Tennessee SEC teams are you rooting for this weekend?

Oh, and I’m rooting for Oklahoma over Ohio State as long as Urban Meyer’s a Buckeye, and I’m rooting for Missouri over South Carolina because the Tigers have a more difficult SEC West schedule (Auburn and Arkansas) than the Gamecocks (Texas A&M and Arkansas).

 

Now that we have at least one week’s worth of data, let’s take a look at what to reasonably expect out of the Vols the rest of the way.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week. There’s also a chance for you to log your own expectations at the bottom of the post.

The Vols after Georgia Tech

Not sure exactly what to make of the Vols yet, of course. It’s difficult after one game anyway, but when the first opponent is Georgia Tech, it’s even more sketchy to attempt to draw too many conclusions. It’s not just that the defense played against the flexbone, it’s that the offense was sitting on the sideline while it was happening. We knew this going in, of course, but it bears repeating. Perhaps the biggest takeaways are that John Kelly is going to be a workhorse (he got 19 of 20 carries against the Yellow Jackets) and that Marquez Callaway is our non-Jauan Jennings playmaker at wide receiver.

Apart from that, you have to be happy about a few things: No sacks, no TFLs. The offense had five trips to the red zone and scored touchdowns every single time. Special teams looked like they’re going to pick up right where they left off, and the trash can is +2 with no interceptions and no fumbles to go along with two fumble recoveries. Plus, the team had only two penalties for 20 yards, which puts them tied for third nationally with four other teams. Give Jones credit for harping on Maxim 1 heading into Atlanta.

You can’t really draw any conclusions about the defense due to the opponent. Or I should say, let’s hope you can’t draw any conclusions about the defense. They did make the play that mattered most, but you don’t want to look at the stats.

So, on the whole, I’d have to say that I feel pretty much the same about the Vols themselves after the first game.

The Vols’ past opponents

None yet.

The Vols’ future opponents

9/9/17: Indiana State (0-1, 0-0 MVFC, NR)

• W1: Lost to E Illinois, 22-20.
• W2: At Tennessee.
• W3: At Liberty
• W4: Bye
• W5: At Illinois State
• W6: North Dakota State
• W7: At South Dakota
• W8: S Illinois
• W9: At Missouri State
• W10: Youngstown State
• W11: W Illinois
• W12: At Northern Iowa

Expectations for a Vols win: Indiana State lost in the last three seconds to E Illinois, so don’t put too much on that loss. On the other hand, they are still an FCS program that should be overmatched against Tennessee. I’m going to keep them at 98%.

PREDICTIONS – INDIANA STATE

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

98

98

9/16/17: Florida (0-1, 0-0 SEC, #22)

• W1: Lost to #11 Michigan, 33-17.
• W2: N Colorado
• W3: #25 Tennessee
• W4: At Kentucky
• W5: Vanderbilt
• W6: #12 LSU
• W7: Texas A&M
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs #15 Georgia
• W10: At Missouri
• W11: At South Carolina
• W12: UAB
• W13: #10 Florida State

Expectations for a Vols win: The headline may be “Michigan hands Florida its first season-opening loss since 1989,” but Florida generally doesn’t open with a good team anyway, so the headline should probably be “Florida still hasn’t found its offense.” It’s not that Florida lost to Michigan, it’s that their offense scored only three of 17 points. Note, though, that Florida was without two of their best playmakers on offense in receiver Antonio Callaway and running back Jordan Scarlett. I had them at 51% before, and I’m going to bump that up to 55%.

PREDICTIONS – FLORIDA

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

51

55

9/23/17: UMass (0-2, 0-0 IND, NR)

• W1: Lost to Hawaii, 38-35.
• W2: Lost to C. Carolina, 38-28.
• W3: Old Dominion
• W4: At Temple
• W5: At #25 Tennessee
• W6: Ohio
• W7: Bye
• W8: At #21 USF
• W9: Ga Southern
• W10: Appalachian State
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Maine
• W13: At BYU

Expectations for a Vols win: UMass is struggling out of the gate, and so far, it does not look like the Vols should have any trouble with them. I’m sticking with 98% and slotted above Indiana State.

PREDICTIONS – UMASS

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

96

96

9/30/17: Georgia (1-0, 0-0 SEC, #15)

• W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
• W2: At #24 Notre Dame
• W3: Samford
• W4: Mississippi State
• W5: At #25 Tennessee
• W6: At Vanderbilt
• W7: Missouri
• W8: Bye
• W9: vs. #22 Florida
• W10: South Carolina
• W11: At #13 Auburn
• W12: Kentucky
• W13: At Georgia Tech

Expectations for a Vols win: The latest on Eason is that he’s week-to-week. But there really doesn’t seem to be much difference between Eason and Fromm. Bottom line, Georgia looked good. I had them at 45% and two spots above Florida before the season began, and I’m going to keep them there for now. We’ll know more about them after this week’s game at South Bend.

PREDICTIONS – GEORGIA

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

45

45

10/14/17: South Carolina (1-0, 0-0 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat NC State, 35-28.
• W2: At Missouri
• W3: Kentucky
• W4: LA Tech
• W5: At Texas A&M
• W6: Arkansas
• W7: At #25 Tennessee
• W8: Bye
• W9: Vanderbilt
• W10: At #15 Georgia
• W11: #22 Florida
• W12: Wofford
• W13: #3 Clemson

Expectations for a Vols win: Get used to hearing the phrase, “Jake Bentley to Deebo Samuel.” Those guys are dynamic and dangerous. The Gamecocks’ win over NC State was actually an upset, and it did come down to the last play as the Wolfpack was throwing into the end zone on the last play. There’s also this: South Carolina was outgained 504-246. These guys may be better than we gave them credit for in the offseason. Or they may not be. Holding firm on them for now at 70% and first in the group that consists of them, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt.

PREDICTIONS – SOUTH CAROLINA

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

70

70

10/21/17: Alabama (1-0, 0-0 SEC, #1)

• W1: Beat #3 Florida State, 24-7.
• W2: Fresno State
• W3: Colorado State
• W4: At Vanderbilt
• W5: Ole Miss
• W6: At Texas A&M
• W7: Arkansas
• W8: #25 Tennessee
• W9: Bye
• W10: #12 LSU
• W11: At Mississippi State
• W12: Mercer
• W13: At #13 Auburn

Expectations for a Vols win: All these guys did was dominate the third-best team in the country and knock their opponent’s best player out for the season in the first game. I had them at 10% preseason, and I’m keeping them there for now.

PREDICTIONS – ALABAMA

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

10

10

10/28/17: Kentucky (1-0, 0-0 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
• W2: E Kentucky
• W3: At South Carolina
• W4: #22 Florida
• W5: E Michigan
• W6: Missouri
• W7: Bye
• W8: At Mississippi State
• W9: #25 Tennessee
• W10: Ole Miss
• W11: At Vanderbilt
• W12: At #15 Georgia
• W13: #17 Lousiville

Expectations for a Vols win: Kentucky won their game this weekend, but their offense didn’t look good. QB Stephen Johnson had only 176 yards, and running back Benny Snell had only 67 rushing yards. The team needed every bit of two forced fumbles late to win. It’s early, but at this point, and I’m going to keep them at 65% for now.

PREDICTIONS – KENTUCKY

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

65

65

11/4/17: Southern Miss (0-1, 0-0 C-USA, NR)

• W1: Lost to Kentucky, 24-17.
• W2: Southern
• W3: At UL Monroe
• W4: Bye
• W5: North Texas
• W6: UTSA
• W7: UTEP
• W8: At LA Tech
• W9: UAB
• W10: At #25 Tennessee
• W11: At Rice
• W12: Charlotte
• W13: At Marshall

Expectations for a Vols win: Everything I just said about Kentucky could instead mean more about Southern Miss. We won’t know for a little while, so for now, I’m going to give Southern Miss the benefit of the doubt and move them up a bit, too, from 90% to 85%.

PREDICTIONS – SOUTHERN MISS

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

90

85

11/11/17: Missouri (1-0, 0-0 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Missouri State 72-43.
• W2: South Carolina
• W3: Purdue
• W4: #13 Auburn
• W5: Bye
• W6: At Kentucky
• W7: At #15 Georgia
• W8: Idaho
• W9: At UConn
• W10: #22 Florida
• W11: #25 Tennessee
• W12: At Vanderbilt
• W13: At Arkansas

Expectations for a Vols win: Keep an eye on Missouri, as they like to fly low all the way to the finish line. Yeah, their opponent was Missouri State, but 72 points is 72 points. QB Drew Lock had a record-setting 521 yards and seven touchdowns, and Damarea Crockett had 202 rushing yards. On the other hand, their problem last year was defense, and they allowed 43 points and 6.6 yards per play, so . . . who knows at this point? I’m going to move them to 65% and slot them above Kentucky.

PREDICTIONS – MISSOURI

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

70

65

11/18/17: LSU (1-0, 0-0 SEC, #12)

• W1: Beat BYU, 27-0.
• W2: Chattanooga
• W3: At Mississippi State
• W4: Syracuse
• W5: Troy
• W6: At #22 Florida
• W7: #13 Auburn
• W8: At Ole Miss
• W9: Bye
• W10: At #1 Alabama
• W11: Arkansas
• W12: At #25 Tennessee
• W13: Texas A&M

Expectations for a Vols win: Running back Derrius Guice had 120 yards and two touchdowns, and the LSU defense didn’t allow BYU’s offense to even cross midfield. We’ll see whether Orgeron can hold things together, but all of the pieces seem to be there. I had LSU at 25% preseason, significantly away from the Florida/Georgia pack, and I’m going to stick with that at this time.

PREDICTIONS – LSU

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

25

25

11/25/17: Vanderbilt (1-0, 0-0 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat MTSU, 28-6.
• W2: Alabama A&M
• W3: #19 Kansas State
• W4: #1 Alabama
• W5: At #22 Florida
• W6: #15 Georgia
• W7: At Ole Miss
• W8: Bye
• W9: At South Carolina
• W10: W Kentucky
• W11: Kentucky
• W12: Missouri
• W13: At #25 Tennessee

Expectations for a Vols win: Yikes, that’s a tough stretch from Week 3 to Week 6 for the Commodores. QB Kyle Shurmur threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns, and the defense held a Blue Raiders that was 12th nationally in scoring last year to only six points. Vandy may be better this year than we believed heading into the preseason. I was inclined to move Vanderbilt above Kentucky, too, but for now I’m leaving them where they are at 70%.

PREDICTIONS – VANDERBILT

W1

W2

W3

W4

W5

W6

W7

W8

W9

W10

W11

W12

W13

70

70

All of that puts me at 7.92 wins, but with 9 if the coin comes up the right way every time.

YOUR TURN

How would you set your win probabilities for the rest of the Vols games? Fill out this form, and we’ll compile the results and post them later this week:

 

So I tried lying to myself all week, about how this game wouldn’t really matter. If Georgia Tech’s unique offense got the best of Tennessee’s Kirkland-less defense, we couldn’t draw too many conclusions. If Tennessee’s offense looked great against an uncelebrated Yellow Jacket defense, we couldn’t get too excited. No matter what happened, our chances in the SEC East race and the season’s narrative would be largely unaffected.

That was a stupid thing to believe.

The Defensive Numbers in Context

There is a helplessness that can set in when playing an offense like Georgia Tech’s. It reminded me a little of our 1990’s games against Nebraska; even with less talent and lower stakes, when that offense is humming a two-possession lead feels like 20. And you can try to talk yourself into whatever you want, but when the ball is kicked in week one the stakes are always high because they are carrying an entire off-season on their shoulders. In Tennessee’s case, an off-season plus some leftovers from 2016.

So it is comforting the day after to realize that while Georgia Tech did run for 535 yards, the most a Tennessee defense has ever allowed, they also did so on 86 carries. Their 6.22 yards per carry are not something we want to try to reproduce, but it’s also not as bad as what Tennessee’s defense surrendered to Texas A&M (7.06), Alabama (8.52), Kentucky (8.05), or Missouri (6.27) last year. GT’s 6.82 yards per play won’t lead us to a successful season if it shows up in the box score every week, but the Vols allowed more than seven yards per play to A&M, Alabama, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt last year. It was by no means success, but I might wait to see what this defense does against the offenses it’ll see the rest of the year before passing judgment on Bob Shoop’s 2017.

Third Down For Less

It was not, of course, comforting in the moment last night. Listening to cries of “STOP THEM!” was like watching your undersized team get dominated on the boards and all you can do is yell “BOX OUT!” Adding to the discomfort:  Tennessee’s offense got off to a not-great start. The first half went like this:  punt, three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out, an eight-play, 46-yard touchdown drive, and a turnover on downs featuring sub-par clock management. Then a three-and-out to open the second half, at which point Georgia Tech ran the third quarter clock down to 3:14 with a 21-7 lead before missing a 47-yard field goal.

The game got a lot more fun after that. A sure path to no fun:  Tennessee’s opening drives featured 3rd-and-12, 3rd-and-8, 3rd-and-10, and 3rd-and-10. But after that, the Vols saw no worse than 3rd-and-7 the rest of the night with one exception:  the 3rd-and-9 dump-off to John Kelly that went for 10, two plays before Marquez Callaway’s 50-yard touchdown.

Quinten Dormady might turn into something really special; right now the Vols just need him to be something good. Last year the Vols could count on a veteran quarterback to get them out of trouble on third down with both his arms and his legs. This year the Vols have to help Dormady get out of trouble on third down by not getting in trouble on first and second down. It certainly made a tremendous difference in the second half last night.

Let Team 121 Be Team 121

I was in the stands last night and didn’t even know there was a trash can on the sideline until I saw it this morning. If the players like it – context clues suggest they do – perhaps Butch Jones and this bunch embrace a bit of them against the world? People making fun of something else the coach does? Bring it on. You don’t like the trash can? Maybe next week there are two of them. If you’re going to do the trash can, own the trash can.

This team will need to rally around each other, and they got plenty of practice last night. Not only has Tennessee lost its biggest names and faces from last season, it will now be without Darrin Kirkland Jr. and Jauan Jennings all year. It’s helpful to remember that, while Tennessee’s injury luck has been astoundingly bad, the Vols did beat Florida and Georgia and should have beaten Texas A&M without Kirkland, Cam Sutton, and Jalen Reeves-Maybin last fall. It wasn’t the quality of injuries that did the Vols in last fall; the defense’s shutdown performance against the Gators in the second half came on the shoulders of guys like Colton Jumper. No program is going to handle 2016’s quantity of injuries well. But for now, while losing Kirkland and Jennings in no way will make Tennessee better, there is plenty of talent to meet this new opportunity. Daniel Bituli and Marquez Callaway are Exhibits A and B. We’ll need more, but it was a great opening response.

The drama was similar, but the names and faces last night were new…and the Vols still got it done. It’s a long year with the entirety of conference play before us…but this offense should have earned plenty of confidence in the second half, and the defense will have a chance to do the same against traditional offenses. Team 121 will face plenty of adversity. But if they learned how to handle it better than Team 120, they’ll have a chance to have a more successful season. And in that department, last night was a really good start.