My regular weekly recap of what happened with Tennessee and its past and future opponents this weekend won’t be up until tomorrow (I don’t expect it to be good news), but here’s your opportunity to use our Vols Win Probability Calculator to see where you’re at after this weekend.

The form is below. Post your result in the comments section as well for discussion purposes.

The Tennessee Volunteers host the UMass Minutemen today at noon in Neyland Stadium. If you can’t be there, be here with like-minded Vols fans. The game’s on the SEC Network.

• Kickoff: 12 p.m. ET
• Online audio
• Live Stats
• TV: SEC Network
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 138 and XM Channel 191

Get your Guessing Game answers in before noon. Root for the Vols to win and hope for no injuries and lots of young guys. Don’t be shocked to see UMass quarterback Andrew Ford do well, but expect the Vols to make the Minutemen one-dimensional. Collectively, we give Tennessee a 95% chance of winning, and the Vols are 28 point favorites.

Once the Vols game is over, shift to watching the rest of today’s college football slate. You can find our weekly college football TV schedule and rooting guide for Vols fans here, and that will serve as our “other games” thread as well.

It’s still mid-September, and the 2007 season is here to tell you that stuff can happen, man. And this weekend is particularly ripe for a good kind of drama helpful to the Big Orange.

Most of the potential chaos is scheduled for Saturday evening, when we’re rooting for Mississippi State to hand Georgia an SEC loss and Kentucky to help Tennessee by making trouble for Florida, narrowing the gap the Vols must close to catch the Gators. We’ll also be keeping an eye on Missouri and LSU to take the temperature of the Vols’ chances against them later this season.

Here’s the Week 4 college football TV schedule, curated for Vols fans. It includes kickoff times, TV stations, and what’s at stake in each game from the perspective of a Vols fan. It also includes helpful suggestions on how to watch everything most efficiently and who to root for in each game.

The full schedule for the entire weekend is also included at the bottom of the post.

Go Vols!

Okay, so some are going to watch this and pine for Charlie Strong, but down that way lies madness. Watch because it’s football and enjoy your evening.

Friday, September 22

Again, this is just an opportunity to hear the sights and sounds of football, for which we all longed most of the summer. These may not get you buzzing, but they are sort of like comfort food. It makes you feel at home.

Gameday, September 23

And then it’s Gameday.

If you’ve already given up hope for the Vols this season, well, we’ll see you for some of the games next year. You likely won’t care about any of this.

For those who remember 2007, though, here’s what we’re watching and hoping for Saturday:

Noon slot

Big win for the Vols, washing away as much of the Gators aftertaste as you can against a team like UMass, and playing a bunch of backups early and long.

Afternoon slot

• We want Alabama to relieve Vanderbilt of some of that building swagger.
• Once that gets boring, switch over to the big national game between #16 TCU and #6 Oklahoma State and root for an entertaining game.

Evening slot

Here’s where it really gets interesting.

• At 7:00, #17 Mississippi State, who just pounded LSU last week, takes on #11 Georgia on ESPN. Vols fans need Georgia to take on as many losses as possible, so root hard for Mississippi State in this one.
• At 7:30, #20 Florida travels to Lexington to take on a Kentucky squad also beginning to find some swagger. Look, I don’t like the idea of Kentucky being good, either, but we need Florida to take on as many losses as possible, too, and we can cross the Kentucky bridge when we come to it.
• Periodically, check in with Missouri, who’s hosting #15 Auburn on ESPNU, and #25 LSU, who’s hosting Syracuse on ESPN2. I don’t think we need to worry much about Missouri, but some insurance would be nice. Also, I know the argument for wanting LSU to be good so a win over them looks better, but right now, we can’t be picky about the quality of SEC wins, so I wouldn’t mind seeing LSU fall completely apart and stumble into Neyland in November.

Complete college football TV schedule for Week 4

And here’s the complete schedule for the week, paginated and searchable!

There’s still plenty of conversation about last week and plenty of conversation about the future, but in the present Tennessee finds itself in a crowded SEC East field. Fans of a certain age are used to losing to Florida and then only having to care about whether the Gators lost twice. But two things have complicated that equation:  one, Nick Saban’s dominance in Tuscaloosa means most will pencil in a second loss for the Vols, requiring an additional Gator loss or a complicated tiebreaker. And two, the SEC East is now much more competitive top to bottom.

Through three weeks, here’s how ESPN’s FPI projects the SEC East in conference win total:

What do Tennessee and Vanderbilt have in common near the bottom of the list? They both play Alabama and both get only an 11% chance from FPI, significantly driving down the overall projection. It’s frustrating to see the Vols fifth on this list right now, but the bigger takeaway to me is how crowded the field is from 1-6. Saying 5-3 might win the East is no exaggeration; three weeks in, it seems like the most likely outcome.

If that 11% doesn’t get it done against Alabama tomorrow and Mississippi State stays hot at Georgia (UGA is a 4.5-point favorite), every SEC East team will have a loss other than the winner of Kentucky/Florida. And if the Cats can turn back three decades of futility, the season outlook will seem significantly brighter for Tennessee.

Florida maintains a scheduling advantage due to moving the LSU game last year, and what seemed like a tough SEC West draw of the Tigers and Texas A&M now seems much easier. Meanwhile Georgia’s draw of Mississippi State this week and their annual meeting with Auburn seems more difficult. You never know how these things are going to turn out, but I do know any win for an East team over a West team this year will be a tremendous asset. Not because the West is necessarily so much better than the East this year, but because the East seems so tightly packed.

So yes, watch the Vols Saturday. But the greatest importance to Tennessee’s season this week is what happens Saturday night in Lexington and Athens. We’ll learn a little more about the East race, and might even find ourselves much more in it than we thought just one week after the Florida loss.

Check out our full schedule of what Tennessee fans should watch this weekend.

If you’re finished crying … or drinking … or spitting anger after last week’s coaching debacle that led to a 26-20 What-the-Hail?!!? Mary win by Florida over the Vols, it’s time to get back on the horse and get ready to play the Minutemen.

Hey, that’s one mascot we can all identify with, amirite?

Anyway, onward and upward. None of us are happy with Butch Jones right now, but we need to snap and clear, build back our emotions brick by brick as individuals and get back to being champions of life. It’s UMASS WEEK, after all! WOOHOO! Win comin’!

Speaking of wins, last week, I went 4-2 in my picks, upping my record to 10-7-1 on the season. That’s not bad. We’re improving every week, getting there. It’ll come. Maybe by year seven [in Jones years]. Who’d have thought UCLA would get out-gunned by Memphis? I sure didn’t. Also, the Vols were getting 5.5 points in Gainesville, and they were two touchdowns better with decent coaching. I don’t feel bad about that loss, relatively speaking.

The others were pretty easy. Tulsa lost but easily within the 10.5 points it was getting. That Missouri-Purdue under 78.5 never even got close, Clemson trounced Louisville and North Carolina (a 7.5 favorite) beat Old Dominion by 30. Good week for the good guy, even if it wasn’t for the Good Guys.

Anyway, UT is 2-1, and that’s all we care about. Let’s first take a look at last week’s keys and find out why they’re 2-1. It’s because they didn’t listen to me.

• Take care of the ball: Nope. This didn’t happen. Quinten Dormady threw three interceptions, including one inside the 10-yard line and one that was returned for a touchdown. That’s inexplicable when you’re playing against a team like Florida. You simply can’t do it. The Vols did it. FAIL!
• Impose your will: Nope. Tennessee did this at times through the game, riding John Kelly. But the Vols didn’t do it when it mattered most. They had seven and-goal downs against the Gators, and all seven of them were passes. One was completed for zero yards. That’s awful. As good as Larry Scott was in the first two games, he was terrible in the game that mattered most so far. FAIL!
• Cover those edges: This was much, much, much better. The Gators struggled to sustain drives and couldn’t get anything going offensively for much of the game. It was a much-improved game by the defense, until the last play of the game, that is. SUCCESS!
• Get a game-changer: This never happened for the Vols, and you feel like Kelly was close. Instead, the Gators got a pick-six and then the 63-yard incredible completion on a beautiful bomb by Feleipe Franks on the game’s final play. FAIL!
• Be the aggressor: Same ol’ sloppy, timid Tennessee against the Gators. The Vols tried to do better in the fourth quarter, and you have to give it to the players for fighting. But the coaches coached soft. FAIL!

That’s one out of five. That’ll get you beat every time.

KEYS

Get Guarantano Extended Reps

The talented Tennessee redshirt freshman quarterback hasn’t played enough yet for us to really know what we’ve got with him. While Q hasn’t really lost the starting QB job, he hasn’t seized it yet, either. What if what the Vols have on the sideline is the next star signal-caller, and he just needs a chance? If he comes out and lights up the Minutemen, I’m not suggesting you start him against Georgia, but this UMass team is awful. You need to get Guarantano some key reps just in case Dormady continues to struggle with his ball placement and decision making.

Both of these signal-callers are talented. But only one of them is getting the most important reps. These coaches need to prepare for anything, and that means Guarantano needs to be ready. The only way he gets that way is with extended action.

Can I Get a Shamburger, Please?

All we heard about throughout the preseason was how impressive Tennessee freshman cornerback Shawn Shamburger was. The same goes for fellow cornerback Cheyenne Labruzza and safety Theo Jackson.

Well, I think it’s time to play at least Shamburger.

No matter how much Justin Martin hustled and batted that ball through the end zone for a touchback last week, it’s not been a good start to the season for the senior. What do you lose getting Shamburger a lot of action against UMass? What if he’s a star-in-the-making? Jackson looks primed to be the No. 3 safety with Todd Kelly Jr. out for the year, so it’s important that he gets some reps, too. But the Vols need help in the secondary. This is the right time to do it.

Ty Time

One positive for the Vols coaches last week was the package that they put in for freshman running back Ty Chandler. We all know John Kelly is a horse, and you’d like to get him enough yards in a quarter or two to set him up for some postseason accolades, sure, but those things aren’t important. The most important thing is that he’s healthy for the gauntlet UT must endure in October.

Plus, Chandler needs a long look as a primary back. Let’s give him 20 touches and see what happens. I think we’ll all be pleasantly surprised, and Kelly will get a rest, too.

Don’t Get Anybody Hurt

Again, we touched on this with Kelly above, but UT is averaging about one season-ending injury per week. Can we stop this trend? Please?

Let the Byrd Fly

Remember when Tyler Byrd flipped from Miami to Tennessee and we thought we had one of the best incoming playmakers that we’d had in years? Yeah, he is still talented. We just don’t get him the football.

It’s asinine that Tennessee is playing Byrd on offense, but whatever. The Vols say they’ve got him over there because he needs the ball in his hands. Well, then, GET HIM THE BALL!

It’s time for him to have an expanded role. This is getting ridiculous. We’re wasting a great talent. Throw him the ball or put him at cornerback where he’s an NFL player.

LOCKS

Either I’m seeing things incredibly well this week, or I’m going to get taken to the cleaners. Two or three of these look too good to be true. That means they probably are. But I’m 10-7-1, so I’m gonna keep going with my gut.

1. Utah -3.5 over Arizona: I don’t get this one at all. The Utes probably aren’t good enough to be ranked, but just because the Wildcats blew out UTEP doesn’t mean they’re suddenly good. They aren’t. I like coach Kyle Whittingham’s team by double digits.
2. West Virginia -21.5 over Kansas: In the past two weeks, Central Michigan beat this Jayhawks team by 18 (then went on to get crushed at Syracuse), then Ohio beat them by 12. Now, you’re telling me that Will Grier and Co. won’t win by more than three touchdowns? The only way this doesn’t cover is if the Mountaineers are resting starters.
3. Duke -2.5 over North Carolina: I believe in Duke. I believe in David Cutcliffe. I believe in quarterback Daniel Jones. And I believe in the Blue Devils’ top-ranked rush defense. This is a team good enough to be ranked. The Tar Heels? Not so much.
4. Florida -2.5 over Kentucky: I don’t believe in Kentucky. I know the Wildcats believe they found something a week ago in a shocking road win at South Carolina. And the Gators certainly aren’t world-beaters. But they’re better than UK. They’ll win by a touchdown or more.
5. Oregon -14 over Arizona State: Again, this is one I do not get. I believe this Oregon team is rolling under Willie Taggart and behind Royce Freeman. The Sun Devils cannot stop anybody. Tons of points will be scored, but the Ducks will score a lot more.
6. Tulsa -10 over New Mexico: Tulsa is a winner against the spread. I like winners. I ride winners. The Golden Hurricane has been money for a lot of weeks for me [if gambling were legal]. I’m gonna keep riding them.
7. San Diego State -3.5 over Air Force: Two good, well-coached teams going at it in what is a very important Mountain West Conference game. But this is a low spread, even if the Aztecs are on the road. They’ve got the best runner in the nation you don’t know about in Rashaad Penny and a solid defense. They’ll cover.
8. Oklahoma State -12.5 over TCU: Remember what I said about winners? Mason Rudolph and Co. are winners. I don’t think the Horny Toads can hang.

This Saturday’s game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the UMass Minutemen should give the Big Orange an opportunity to find out more about their second-tier players. UMass is struggling mightily out of the gate at 0-4, and with the Vols trying to get their minds right after the bitter Florida loss and also prepare for an even more important game next week against the Georgia Bulldogs, the game plan for Tennessee should be to seize control early and get their backups in quickly for an extended look.

Here’s a quick look at UMass’ strengths and weaknesses, along with the Minutemen to watch.

UMass strengths and weaknesses

From this, it would appear that for all of its problems, the UMass offense is pretty good on first down and is not bad at all in the passing game. That said, their numbers scream “ONE DIMENSIONAL.” If that’s the case, the Vols’ defense should be able to contain the run game and then tee off on passing plays. Tennessee’s defensive line should have a good day wreaking havoc behind the line of scrimmage, as the Minutemen are giving up A LOT of sacks and TFLs.

Not that the Vols should pound their chest about it much, but the UMass defense starts off at mediocre and gets worse from there. Tennessee’s run game should be able to control this one out of the gate, and when it is time to pass, they should be just fine.

Again, not much to worry about here for the Vols.

Players to Watch

If the passing game is the thing to watch, then it all starts with junior quarterback Andrew Ford, who is 90-of-140 for 1,204 yards and six touchdowns after four games so far this season. He’s thrown only one interception.

Ford does a good job of spreading the ball around to his three favorite targets: senior tight end Adam Breneman (24 receptions for 369 yards, but no touchdowns), junior running back Andy Isabella (20 receptions for 306 yards and three touchdowns, and sophomore wide receiver Sadiq Palmer (17 receptions for 239 yards).

When they’re not passing the ball, they’re handing off to junior running back Marquis Young, who’s rushed for 225 yards this season on 60 carries. He’s had four touchdowns, and he’s also caught 12 passes for 71 yards.

On the defensive side of the ball, senior lineman Da’Sean Downey has three sacks and three tackles for loss on the season. The team’s leading tackler is senior linebacker Bryton Barr, and the secondary’s best defender so far appears to be sophomore Isaiah Rodgers, who has three pass breakups and an interception.

If the NCAA’s official field goal stats can be trusted, freshman kicker Michael Schreiner is 0-4 so far this season. He’s also only had one touchback on 17 kickoffs, so watch for Ty Chandler or whoever else is back there to maybe have a big day returning kicks.

Below are the results from our survey of the GRT community on how last weekend impacted our collective expected win total for the Vols this season. We opened this week’s Win Probability Calculator for business on Sunday at noon, and the last entry was Tuesday. The room temperature was hottest Saturday night and cooled over the course of the week, so if temperature affects reporting of expectations, keep that in mind.

Here are this week’s results:

Lots of 50/50 games in there in South Carolina, Kentucky, LSU, and Vanderbilt. Folks are considerably less confident in the Georgia game, but still think UMass, Southern Miss, and Missouri are safe. While adding up the percentages only equates to barely over seven wins, being right on each game would mean the Vols would win eight games, about what the fan base collectively expected before the season began.