Last Saturday my wife and I brought our first child home from the hospital. As Tennessee goes, it was a pretty good day to not be paying attention.

It’s been different this week being so insulated from what everyone is saying about the Vols, both the voices I love and the voices that drive me crazy. Sometimes when we speak of “blocking out the noise”, we’re a red-faced kid with his hands in his ears: he may not hear it, but he is entirely focused on it. Maybe it’s healthier to just remove it from the equation and the decision-making process.

Sports are about the moments more than they are about the noise, the talent, or even the win total. Last year we looked at data from Bill Connelly at SB Nation on the best Tennessee teams of the “Decade” of Dominance. In a 13-year span from 1989-2001, Tennessee won four league titles, a national championship, and had the best winning percentage of any team in the SEC. But Connelly’s S&P+ numbers suggested Heath Shuler’s 1993 team was the best of that bunch. They were an exceptionally talented and dangerous football team. They just weren’t as memorable – in large part because their schedule gave them fewer chances to make those moments – as some of their less talented or even less successful Tennessee contemporaries.

One of my favorite tests for what kind of season Tennessee had is, “Did the Vol Network release a season highlight film?” Those years, since Johnny Majors arrived in 1977: 1985, 1987, 1989-90, 1993, 1995-99, 2001, 2003-04, 2006-07. It’s been so long since they had the opportunity, I’m not even sure what format they would sell it on anymore.

Sports are about moments, and not just the ones available to an established program competing for championships. Among the others, some of the most potent are the “we’re back” moments, which is why they come with so many false alarms. You can create a moment in any season, but ultimately the season itself has to be considered a success for that moment to last.

I think this is what has hurt Tennessee and Butch Jones the most these last five years: missed opportunities to score meaningful “we’re back!” wins, then blown opportunities to cash in even bigger moments in could-have-been championship seasons. Positive, lasting memories are outnumbered by moments that should have been or should have lasted.

There have been significant wins, no doubt, some of them bigger and better than anything around here in more than a decade. But when the seasons those moments came in didn’t end well, they traded some percentage of their pleasure for pain. We missed the chance to celebrate being back to competing for championships because there was no defining victory in that process. Then we lost opportunities to look back with nothing but joy on Saturdays that seemed built to last, but didn’t because the Vols didn’t finish the job.

Think about it this way: how many big Tennessee wins in the last five years don’t give you some kind of a “Yeah, but…” feeling?

Not as they were happening; if you’re a, “Yeah, but…” person in the midst of a big win, you need to get out more. But when we look back at them in the context of the entire season?

Last year Tennessee won a game at a NASCAR track, beat Florida for the first time in 11 years in the biggest comeback over a ranked team in Neyland Stadium history, and beat Georgia on a hail mary in the first five weeks of the season (and almost quadrupled down at Texas A&M). It’s not hyperbole to say I’ve never seen a string of moments like that in so few weeks as a Tennessee fan…which still makes it all the more painful when the Vols didn’t capitalize on them the rest of the year. When I go back and watch the second half against Florida or the last play against Georgia, there’s still a small but significant part of me that associates frustration with those games because the Vols didn’t ultimately cash any of it in.

How many significant, non-yeah-but wins for Tennessee in the last five years? How many are only freely and fondly remembered? For me, that list is:

• Josh Dobbs’ coming out party at South Carolina in 2014. Before frantic finishes became so common under Butch Jones, what the Vols did in the final two minutes and what Dobbs did all night were truly remarkable. When Jones throws around that, “We’re x-and-y in the last z games,” statistic, he always starts with this game, and rightfully so. This one holds up as Dobbs’ coming out party and the beginning of Tennessee’s ascent to national relevance.
• The Taxslayer Bowl start-to-finish blowout of Iowa a few weeks later, Tennessee’s first bowl victory in seven years and still probably the most dominant performance a Butch Jones team has had.
• A 45-6 win over #13 Northwestern in the Outback Bowl at the end of the 2015 season, which allowed the floodgates of championship expectations to open wide. This remains Tennessee’s largest margin of victory over a ranked team since 1990.

And I think that’s about it. The 2015 Georgia game might have been Jones’ most important win, but it had such a stop-the-bleeding component it’s hard for me to associate it more strongly in a different context. The 2013 win over #11 South Carolina was important because Jones did something in two months that Derek Dooley never did in three years, but when those Vols failed to earn bowl eligibility the moment faded. And the blessings and burdens of last year are still fresh on our minds, and inform a significant percentage of the conversation about Butch Jones.

Under their head coach, Tennessee has scored both talent and win totals better than anything we’ve seen in a decade, along with some significant individual wins. But what is missing are moments that get to last. Those moments are sport’s most precious commodity. The noise is simply a reflection of their presence or absence.   

Are there still chances for Butch Jones and these Vols to make those moments? Outside of beating Bama, the schedule has turned in a way that we might have called advantageous had the Vols beaten Florida. But now a head coach and his 3-2 team in desperate need of those moments face a whole bunch of opponents they are always expected to beat, plus an LSU squad threatening to join that list. Tennessee could theoretically finish 9-3 – the program’s best regular season since 2007 – and frustration could still be the first word (although a 9-3 finish could lead to an opportunity for one of those kind of moments in a more prestigious bowl). Perhaps Jarrett Guarantano will spark an opportunity. But beyond Tuscaloosa, how much is left in this regular season that will move the needle? This season’s narrative has already shifted from meaningful football to curiosity about the coach. If it’s going to happen for Butch Jones in Knoxville, he will need to do a lot of winning in the next two months to get another chance to make those moments next fall.

I don’t know what John Currie and The Powers That Be at Tennessee are thinking. But I do know, no matter who is on the sideline, Tennessee needs those moments and needs them to last. 

If you’re like me, you’ve probably sleep-walked through this week in a daze. It hasn’t been that long ago that our team was 5-0 to start the 2016 season heading into a pivotal road game against fellow unbeaten Texas A&M nearly midway through last year.

Now, Butch Jones and Kevin Sumlin share the hottest seats in the SEC, perhaps along with Missouri second-year coach Barry Odom. It’s crazy, but the Vols have absolutely lost everything all at once.

Now, you just wonder how long it’s going to take for it to end.

But before all that happens, there’s some football still to be played, beginning with next weekend’s home game against South Carolina. Everybody is going to be curious to see what the Neyland Stadium crowd is like, how receptive they are to Jones and the team and just how the Vols respond to all this adversity, especially against a coach in Will Muschamp who has UT’s number.

Perhaps the biggest question of them all though is who’s going to start at quarterback? If you’re a true UT fan, you still want the Vols to win. And so you want to see what this offense is going to look like with Jarrett Guarantano under center. In the flashes we’ve seen him this year, he hasn’t been good. But you wonder if he prepares differently and how the team responds to him once he has two weeks of work.

Following Quinten Dormady’s early-season struggles, you have to figure the Vols are going to go with Guarantano. After all, he may not be “better” right now, but he’s “different.” And different is what UT needs right now. The Vols have to try something — anything — else to try to find answers.

But I’m cautioning you all: Guarantano isn’t Joshua Dobbs.

Repeat that again with me: Jarrett. Guarantano. Is. Not. Joshua. Dobbs.

I said it all through last season and all through the offseason: All of those UT fans who weren’t sold on Dobbs would realize just how good of a player he was once he’s gone. He wasn’t always the most accurate passer, but he sometimes willed the Vols to wins and kept them in games. This year, quarterback play has been a liability. Do you not think Jones and Co. already would have started Guarantano if he was like Dobbs?

The bottom line is the redshirt freshman is strong-armed, quick-footed and talented. But he is too panicky in the pocket, looks to run too quickly and can’t freelance in the open field the way Dobbs could. He struggles with touch on his passes, and he hasn’t gotten the offense in any sort of rhythm when he’s been on the field.

Will that be any different with him if he starts and if he’s prepared to be a starter? I don’t know, but don’t believe he’s going to come in here and automatically be the savior. There are more things wrong than just the quarterback position. So, it’s hard believing a kid with no experience is going to do away with the doldrums.

Well, let’s move on to the gory details.

Last week was the worst Locks & Keys week of my life. I went 1-7. If you actually bet, I wouldn’t listen to me at all. But after two frustrating weeks (after a hot start) dropped me to 15-18-1, there’s only one thing to do, and that’s pick some winners. Right now, I’m the prognosticating equivalent of the Vols.

I’m awful. Seriously, there’s no excuse for 1-7. You have to try hard to suck that bad. I’m a failure.

Speaking of our team, they’re pretty pitiful. Needless to say, they did nothing last week that we hoped. That’s why they lost 41-0. So, let’s take a look at last week’s keys. They were all failures.

• Make Fromm look like a freshman: There were times throughout much of the first quarter and a half where he absolutely did look like a first-year starter. Then, Fromm settled down, made some throws and show the poise he’s been known for. He was only 7-of-15 for 84 yards, but he didn’t have to do much. He had two rushing scores.
• Slow the big three: Nick Chubb had 109 rushing yards, and the Dawgs controlled the game on the ground. But the numbers weren’t really all that big. They didn’t have to be.
• Remember the rhythm: This was another play-calling failure for new offensive coordinator Larry Scott. It was pathetic.
• Turn ’em over: When UGA turned the ball over, the Vols promptly butt-fumbled it right back to them.
• Band together and coach this team: If anything, it looked like UT quit and it also looks like the Vols have quit playing for Butch. I hope I’m wrong. It doesn’t feel that way right now.

KEYS

You really can’t have any keys in a bye week, but after all the rumors, the embarrassing Touchdown Club trip to Memphis, the recruiting defections, etc., I know a lot of people believe the only key right now is to move in a different direction.

I’ll only say once that I agree; Butch Jones has done the exact opposite of galvanizing the fan base, and though he’s done a lot for this program [whether you feel like giving him credit or not] maybe the next guy needs to do the heavy lifting.

I’m wrestling with those emotions right now, because he’s coming off back-to-back 9-4 seasons. But this thing is so completely broken right now. There is a chance the Vols can get it going back in the right direction, but they’ve shown no signs of it yet.

It kind of makes you wonder if they will.

We’ve read so many times this week that it’s now not a matter of “if” but “when.” The Vols need to take care of business, starting with South Carolina next week, or we’re about to start over. Yet again.

LOCKS

In case you didn’t pay attention, I suck. I’ve got to turn it around, and I will. This week, it’s at least back to .500, and we’re going to try to go over it. Let’s do this.

1. Memphis (-13.5) over UConn: Last week, the fighting Scott Frosts brought Memphis back down to earth. But the Tigers are still very good and can still score a ton of points. The Huskies can’t. This one seems too easy, and it’s gonna be a good start to the weekend with a Friday night win.
2. Maryland (+31) over Ohio State: I don’t care if the Terrapins’ eighth-string quarterback plays, DJ Durkin is finding a way to dial up some points. This Maryland team isn’t bad, and even though they won’t beat the Buckeyes, they’ll keep it within 31. Easily.
3. Washington State (-2.5) over Oregon: I don’t understand this at all. I know it’s at Eugene, but this Ducks team is two weeks removed from losing to Arizona State and just lost starting quarterback Justin Herbert. Mike Leach still getting no love.
4. Georgia (-17) over Vanderbilt: The Commdores are a solid team that will go bowling, but they can’t score against this Bulldogs defense. UGA will be coming off a commitment from 5-star quarterback Justin Fields, and they are undefeated and smelling big things. This won’t be a letdown game.
5. West Virginia (+13.5) over TCU: It’s asking too much for Dana Holgorsen’s team to go to Fort Worth and pull off the upset of a good Horned Frogs team that is hot right now. But Will Grier and Co. will keep it under two touchdowns.
6. Miami (-3.5) over Florida State: The Seminoles are not very good. Miami is, and Mark Richt’s team is going to come out hyped and pour it on FSU. It’ll be thorough.
7. Kentucky (-10.5) over Mizzou: The Wildcats have a tendency to play up or down to their competition, so that makes this a dangerous game, but Barry Odom isn’t going to last long in Columbia, and this UK team is going to score at will on the Tigers.
8. SMU (+6.5) over Houston: Ed Oliver may or may not play, but it won’t matter. Not only will the Mustangs cover, Chad Morris’ 4-1 team will win outright. They are not a bad team, and it won’t be long before Morris is a hot commodity for another program.

Here’s our weekly update of the Vols’ statistical rankings, after the Georgia game. You might want to take something first and come back in 15 minutes before proceeding.

Offense

Offensive observations: Um . . . that’s a lot of red?

Defense

Defensive observations: That Passing Yards Allowed is actually something to start being pleased about. The numbers are likely inflated by viture of the teams they’ve played, but five games in, it’s still a good number.

Special Teams

Special Teams observations: The grass is greener here. Let’s not break anything, please. And don’t ask Trevor Daniel to fix Punt Return Defense. He punts. The other 10 tackle.

Turnovers and Penalties

Turnovers and Penalties observations: The penalties have been kind of infuriating, but honestly, they’re not too bad. It’s more that the team’s current deficiencies are such a liability that they cannot survive even one penalty. Shoot, a penalty-free game is probably not enough.

Player Rankings

Trevor Daniel is an island of serenity. John Kelly is a one-man wrecking crew. And I ask this with all honesty? Is Colton Jumper our best player on defense?

It’s an off-week for the Vols, so it’s a good week to catch your breath and get your mind right. There’s also a few opportunities to see some future Vols’ opponents in action.

Here’s the Week 6 college football TV schedule, curated for Vols fans. It includes kickoff times, TV stations, and what’s at stake in each game from the perspective of a Vols fan. It also includes helpful suggestions on how to watch everything most efficiently and who to root for in each game.

The full schedule for the entire weekend is also included at the bottom of the post.

Go Vols!

Thursday, October 5

This should actually be a good game, and watching Lamar Jackson is usually entertaining.

Friday, October 6

What else are you doing on Friday?

Gameday, October 7

Vols are off, and if you don’t have a Harvest Moon festival to go to, here’s a chance to catch a few good games and get an early look at a few future opponents for the Vols.

Noon slot

Georgia travels to Nashville to take on Vanderbilt at noon. Georgia’s not losing four SEC games this year, so I’m hoping that they look as good against the Commodores as they did against the Vols. I can see an argument for not wanting them to do anything that makes it easier for them to continue to recruit well, but that’s what I’m hoping for at this time.

Afternoon slot

At 3:30, former opponent Florida hosts future opponent LSU, and I’m rooting for LSU, not because I think the Vols can catch them (although, maybe?), but because I just don’t want them to have nice things. I’m also rooting for Arkansas against South Carolina at 4:00. There’s a game between ranked teams in this slot as well, so if you prefer that, have at it.

Evening slot

Alabama takes on Texas A&M at 7:15 and figures to have its way with them, and then two future Vols opponents meet in Lexington as Missouri matches up against Kentucky. Not sure who to pull for in that one, but I guess I’m leaning Missouri.

Complete college football TV schedule for Week 6

And here’s the complete schedule for the week, paginated and searchable!