Kentucky 29, Tennessee 26: The Final Straw?

Jarrett Guarantano grimaced in pain, trotting onto the field after a Kentucky timeout set up the final play of the game. He took the snap, unleashed a bomb downfield that was caught by senior receiver Jeff George.

Three yards short.

On a Hail Mary that was supposed to be caught to win the game. Like the rest of the season, it simply fell short.

Now, we all wonder how long we’ll have to wait on what seems like inevitable news on coach Butch Jones, who surely can’t survive this, can he? When George was tackled, UT’s record dropped to 3-5. The Vols are 0-5 in the conference now.

That’s even more painful than whatever injury Guarantano battled through.

Did the strong-armed Guarantano’s pain prevent him from getting it all the way there? If so, that would be Tennessee’s luck. We saw the Vols fall victim to their own cruel Vol-dom all night. This is the same team that saw a ridiculous blanket unsportsmanlike conduct penalty called at the first of the game on both teams that ultimately cost them two of their best defenders in Daniel Bituli and Rashaan Gaulden.

[Gaulden will miss the first half of next week’s game against Southern Miss, too. Seriously, has that ever been called? Only SEC officials, man. What kind of idiocy was that?]

Regardless, it was only the beginning of Tennessee finding a way to mess up the game. On the play before Kentucky took the final lead with under a minute remaining on quarterback Stephen Johnson’s designed run, Johnson threw a ball that was tipped in the air and into the arms of Nigel Warrior.

It would have been a difficult interception as he rolled to the end zone turf, but if you catch it, the game is over. He didn’t. One play later, UT was losing.

That was only the worst of the luck that came all night. Senior receiver Josh Smith was carted off the field. The Vols again saw a false start penalty on the goal line keep them from six points in what ultimately became a field goal. Later in the game, freshman Brent Cimaglia missed two field goals that could have given the Vols an insurmountable lead.

Instead, UT kept handing the game to Kentucky despite getting four turnovers, scoring touchdowns and actually looking like a decent team for snippets of the night.

These Vols keep finding ways to lose, and time is running out for Jones and his staff. The Vols — you have to figure — can’t beat LSU. That means they must beat Southern Miss, Vanderbilt and Missouri just to make a bowl game.

That isn’t happening the way things are right now.

As prized recruit Cade Mays visited Clemson and watched the Tigers beat Georgia Tech on Saturday night, UT was losing to Kentucky for just the second time in 33 years. The last time it happened, it signified the beginning of the end for Derek Dooley. It may usher in the end for Jones.

Time is wasting now. You may ask what can be done at this point of the season? The answer is salvaging some hope for the future, giving these players in limbo a direction, even if it may not be the direction they want or even if it means losing recruits in the process.

If Butch coaches against Southern Miss next week, there may not be 50,000 people in Neyland Stadium. Unfortunately, there may not be anyway.

Nobody wants to hear about all the good things Jones did for this program right now, and that’s a shame. It’s the nature of college football, but there were some good things; there were some good times. The talent level and the overall program are in better shape than the program he inherited.

But when you get right down to the bottom of the barrel, the end of a tenure, the only thing that really matters right now is this: Jones came to a Tennessee program that couldn’t make a bowl game, and this 2017 version of the Vols looks like it won’t make one, either.

A long line of blunders, off-the-field frustrations and futility have led to what we’re seeing on the field this season. Maybe it all started when the major red flag began flying in the middle of last year, when a supposed team leader, junior running back Jalen Hurd, who was about to become the school’s all-time leading rusher, simply quit the team.

Back then, we searched and scrambled, looking for an answer. We didn’t want to believe that it was the latest in a pattern, that the “brick-by-brick” class that saw so many defections was maybe just not what we all thought it would be.

Instead, we should have known that when the first ever Jones commit, the kid who began to help Jones build — receiver Vic Wharton — transferred to California, followed by the Hurd situation, this was deeper than we could even realize.

You know what they say about hindsight.

Now, fast-forward to this season, and you see unkept promises that are leading to a divided locker room, you see the holes on the roster, you see the infighting, you see the recruits dropping. Above all else, you see the offensive futility, the coaching blunders, the bad hires and the losses piling up. You see Georgia bursting onto national scene in Year 2 of Kirby Smart. You see Alabama embarrassing you on the field, weeks after the Dawgs did.

We’re about to see Florida enter the coaching market, a team with deep pockets, fertile grounds and bragging rights on the Vols. That’s another reason why the difficult decision must be made.

I pulled for the Vols every single step of the way tonight. But this was an 18-wheeler we all saw coming from a mile away, and we were stuck in the intersection with nowhere to go. You could feel that UT was going to lose this game. You just knew the Vols would find a way.

And that simple fact right there is why a change needs to happen now more than ever. You expect Tennessee to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. You expect them to find a way to fail. Despite the solid performances of Guarantano, running backs Ty Chandler and Carlin Fils-aime and a few others, you just knew there would be players put in a position to lose the game because we’ve seen exactly that too often under Butch Jones.

Here we are. Back again. Another mediocre hire that we’d hope would mature stayed stuck in neutral until it started rolling back down the hill from where it came. This program is not in shambles, but this team is. If you don’t do something now — right now — you run the risk of everything falling apart. Again.

We’re all out of bricks.

What channel is the Vols game on: The Tennessee-Kentucky online game-watching party

The Tennessee Volunteers travel to Lexington today to take on the Kentucky Wildcats at 7:30 on the SEC Network.

In an age where the term is overused, this may actually be a must-win game for Butch Jones. He’ll have to do it with an offense that has spent much of the season stumbling around in the dark, drunk, with a shotgun pointed at its own feet, and he’ll have to do it without reserve offensive lineman Jack Joneswithout star running back John Kelly and backup linebacker Will Ignont, and without former starting quarterback Quinten Dormady ready if something happens to Jarrett Guarantano.

The good news is that for a guy whose teams play too many close games, Butch Jones has dominated Kentucky. Tennessee is also much more talented, and Kentucky’s stats prove that they’re not Alabama. If the Vols can do these five things, they can win.

That said, the Vols are 5.5-point underdogs, and the GRT Statsy Preview Machine and all of the other stat models like Kentucky to win in a close one.

While you’re waiting for kickoff, download and listen to our game preview podcast, submit your answers to our weekly GRT Guessing Game, and use our handy college football TV schedule and rooting guide for Vols fans to enjoy the rest of the day.

Go Vols.

College Football TV Schedule and Rooting Guide for Vols fans: Week 9

This week of college football features a night game for the Vols and a Saturday afternoon filled with a ton of bright shiny objects for Tennessee fans.

Here’s the Week 9 college football TV schedule, curated for Vols fans. It includes kickoff times, TV stations, and what might be of interest to a Vols fan. It also includes helpful suggestions on how to watch everything most efficiently and who to root for in each game.

The full schedule for the entire weekend is also included at the bottom of the post.

Go Vols!

Thursday, October 26

Thursday, October 26, 2017
Game Time (ET) TV Why How Root for
Stanford at Oregon State 9:00 PM ESPN It's football Live An entertaining game

 

Hey, it’s Thursday, and the weekend’s football is starting. Be there.

Friday, October 27

Friday, October 27, 2017
Game Time (ET) TV Why How Root for
Florida State at Boston College 8:00 PM ESPN "It could be worse" Channel hop Discuss
Tulane at Memphis 8:00 PM CBSSN Mike Norvell? Channel hop Riley Ferguson

 

If you’re feeling down in the dumps this season, have a look at Florida State. That grass is browner. And here’s to wishing former Vol Riley Ferguson success.

Gameday, October 28

It seems like forever since we Vols fans have had a night game, but pace yourself, because there are a lot of games on tap today, especially in the afternoon time slot.

Saturday, October 28, 2017
Game Time (ET) TV Why How Root for
NOON
Oklahoma State at West Virginia Noon ABC
AFTERNOON
Florida vs. Georgia (in Jacksonville) 3:30 PM CBS SEC East Channel hop Discuss
NC State at Notre Dame 3:30 PM NBC Big game Channel hop Discuss
Penn State at Ohio State 3:30 PM FOX Big game Channel hop Discuss
Vanderbilt at South Carolina 4:00 PM SECN Future opponent Channel hop Discuss
Austin Peay at UCF 5:00 PM ESPN3 Scott Frost Channel hop Discuss
Missouri at UConn 6:30 PM CBSSN Future opponent Channel hop Discuss
EVENING
Tennessee at Kentucky 7:30 PM SECN GO VOLS! Live GO VOLS!
Georgia Tech at Clemson 8:00 PM ABC/ESPN2 (RM) Big game DVR Georgia Tech

 

Noon slot

SHOOTOUT! I’M 50!

Afternoon slot

My goodness, there’s a lot of interesting shiny objects to look at here for Vols fans. First, there’s the Cocktail Party, between two teams we both want to lose even though it wouldn’t matter. Then there are two big national games, NC State at Notre Dame and Penn State at Ohio State. And finally, two games featuring future opponents and a game featuring UCF, which we’re suddenly interested in for some reason.

Evening slot

Go Vols, and when we’re done, go Yellow Jackets.

Complete college football TV schedule for Week 9

And here’s the complete schedule for the week, paginated and searchable!

Thursday, October 26, 2017 Friday, Sept. 29, 2017 Friday, Sept. 29, 2017
Game Time (ET) TV
Eastern Michigan at NIU 7:00 PM CBSSN
Toledo at Ball State 7:00 PM ESPN3
South Alabama at Georgia State 7:30 PM ESPNU
Stanford at Oregon State 9:00 PM ESPN
Friday, October 27, 2017
Game Time (ET) TV
Florida State at Boston College 8:00 PM ESPN
Tulane at Memphis 8:00 PM CBSSN
Tulsa at SMU 9:00 PM ESPN2
Saturday, October 28, 2017
Game Time (ET) TV
Buffalo at Akron 11:30 AM CBSSN
Arkansas at Ole Miss Noon SECN
Miami, FL at North Carolina Noon ESPN2
Oklahoma State at West Virginia Noon ABC
Rutgers at Michigan Noon BTN
Texas at Baylor Noon ESPNU
Wisconsin at Illinois Noon ESPN
Louisville at Wake Forest 12:20 PM ACCN
Virginia at Pittsburgh 12:30 PM RSN/ESPN3
California at Colorado 2:00 PM Pac-12N
FIU at Marshall 2:30 PM Stadium
Air Force at Colorado State 3:00 PM CBSSN
Kansas State at Kansas 3:00 PM FS1
San Jose State at BYU 3:00 PM BYUtv/ESPN3
Appalachian State at UMass 3:30 PM 11 Sports
Florida vs. Georgia (in Jacksonville) 3:30 PM CBS
Georgia Southern at Troy 3:30 PM ESPN3
Indiana at Maryland 3:30 PM BTN
Louisiana Tech at Rice 3:30 PM FloTV
Michigan State at Northwestern 3:30 PM ESPN
NC State at Notre Dame 3:30 PM NBC
Penn State at Ohio State 3:30 PM FOX
TCU at Iowa State 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 (RM)
UCLA at Washington 3:30 PM ABC/ESPN2 (RM)
Houston at USF 3:45 PM ESPNU
Vanderbilt at South Carolina 4:00 PM SECN
Florida Atlantic at WKU 4:30 PM Stadium
Austin Peay at UCF 5:00 PM ESPN3
ULM at Idaho 5:00 PM ESPN3
Utah at Oregon 5:45 PM Pac-12N
Texas State at Coastal Carolina 6:00 PM ESPN3
Old Dominion at North Texas 6:30 PM ESPN3
Minnesota at Iowa 6:30 PM FS1
Missouri at UConn 6:30 PM CBSSN
UAB at Southern Miss 7:00 PM CUSA.TV
Mississippi State at Texas A&M 7:15 PM ESPN
Duke at Virginia Tech 7:20 PM ACCN
Nebraska at Purdue 7:30 PM BTN
New Mexico at Wyoming 7:30 PM ESPNU
Tennessee at Kentucky 7:30 PM SECN
Arkansas State at New Mexico State 8:00 PM ALT/ESPN3/AggieVision
Georgia Tech at Clemson 8:00 PM ABC/ESPN2 (RM)
Texas Tech at Oklahoma 8:00 PM ABC/ESPN2 (RM)
UTSA at UTEP 8:00 PM KMYS
Washington State at Arizona 9:30 PM Pac-12N
Boise State at Utah State 10:00 PM CBSSN
UNLV at Fresno State 10:00 PM ATTSNRM
USC at Arizona State 10:45 PM ESPN
San Diego State at Hawaii 11:15 PM ESPN2

Tennessee quarterback Quinten Dormady unavailable for the Kentucky game due to injury

Tennessee quarterback Quinten Dormady will not be available for the Kentucky game this evening due to a shoulder injury. Dormady has reportedly been battling the injury since “well before the start of the season” and is now exploring surgery as an option to correct the problem.

Hearing now that this has been an issue since before the season really makes you wonder about Dormady starting the first five games of the season and how much it may have impacted his performance. But if he was hampered by the injury, why not start Jarrett Guarantano sooner? Perhaps the coaches felt that Dormady with the injury was still the better option at the time, and maybe Dormady figures that time spent as the backup on the bench now provides him with the opportunity to engage in a long-term fix that requires recovery time.

It does leave the team in a risky situation, though, because if Guarantano goes down with injury, that will thrust freshman Will McBride — the nation’s #29 dual-threat quarterback in the Class of 2017 — into the starting role. McBride hasn’t played yet this season and has thus far been destined for a redshirt season.

The Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game: Kentucky Wildcats edition

Time to play the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game. If you have no idea what that is, you can find out everything you need to know here. Last week’s results are here.

Let’sa go!

  1. Submit your answers to our three questions below.
  2. Click the “Submit” button.
  3. Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.

 

Good luck, and Go Vols!

 

Butch Jones, Tennessee, and Point Differential

 

As the head coach might say, Saturday is a critical day for the Tennessee program. The good news, from the head coach’s perspective:  Butch Jones’ teams have dominated Kentucky…and only Kentucky.

Since 2013 the Vols are 4-0 against the Wildcats. The results have been much more mixed against the rest of the SEC East:  1-4 against Florida, 2-3 against Georgia, 3-2 against South Carolina, and ties waiting to be broken with Missouri and Vanderbilt. And the distance between the Vols against Kentucky and the Vols against the rest of the division is even more stark when you add point differential to the equation.

Here’s the margin of victory chart against the SEC East in Butch’s five seasons:

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total
Florida -14 -1 -1 10 -6 -12
Georgia -3 -3 7 3 -41 -37
Kentucky 13 34 31 13 91
Missouri -28 -8 11 26 1
South Carolina 2 3 3 -3 -6 -1
Vanderbilt -4 7 25 -11 17

Remove Kentucky, and the Vols have played 18 of the other 23 division games within 11 points under Butch Jones. And the margins are razor thin against South Carolina, Missouri, and Georgia before this year. It’s never been that close with the Wildcats, including last year when Tennessee led by 27 with seven minutes to play before two Kentucky touchdowns in garbage time brought the margin closer.

If there’s good news for Kentucky here, it’s that the Vols have done it every time with offense. Last year Tennessee put the first 10+ yard per play performance on an opponent of the post-Fulmer era; the Vols have scored 151 points on the Cats in the last three years. Even the 2013 team, one week after struggling so mightily with Vanderbilt, had its best performance of the season against a power five opponent by putting 6.32 yards per play on Kentucky.

Perhaps Kentucky will be the medicine for Tennessee’s anemic offense one more time tomorrow. The more relevant point here for the Vol football conversation is how Tennessee has continued to play close games regardless of opponent, unless that opponent is Kentucky.

The Vols, of course, have already played four such games this year, three of them decided on the final play. In 2016 Tennessee went to the final snap against Appalachian State, Georgia, Texas A&M, and South Carolina. The 2015 Vols, now regarded as the closest thing we’ve seen to a championship-level team under Butch Jones, played six one possession games in a span of eight contests. Plus five more in 2014 and four others in 2013. If the average team plays within one possession 35% of the time, the Vols under Butch Jones are at 43.3%.

It’s interesting now to look back at his tenure at Cincinnati and Central Michigan too, where something that looked like a strength in comparison to Derek Dooley – he knows how to win close games! – now looks more like a red flag by playing in so many of them. In his second year at Central Michigan, Butch Jones and the Chippewas were in nine one possession games.

If the Vols do end up looking for a new coach, and the pendulum continues to swing the way it typically does around here when making a change, Tennessee might look less for someone who wins close games and more for someone aggressive enough to take advantage of every snap, and avoid playing them if at all possible.

The last four years say otherwise, but the first seven weeks of this year and much of Butch’s tenure suggests we’re in for another close game tomorrow. In a critical contest, that would again make the margin of error awfully thin.

Tennessee-Kentucky Statsy Preview: Wildcats outgain, outscore Vols

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine, having done a pretty good job with the Alabama game last week, now turns its attention to the Tennessee-Kentucky game this weekend in Lexington. The bottom line? The SPM agrees with Vegas, ESPN’s FPI, and S&P+ in concluding that Kentucky should win this one by somewhere around five or six points. I’ve eyeball-adjusted that to three points.

Before we get to the particulars, though, let’s have a look at Kentucky’s resume to date to see whether and to what degree a statistical comparison of the two teams might need to be adjusted for strength of schedule.

Kentucky’s Schedule (5-2, 2-2 SEC, NR)

  • W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
  • W2: Best E Kentucky, 27-16.
  • W3: Beat South Carolina, 23-13.
  • W4: Lost to #20 Florida, 28-27.
  • W5: Beat E Michigan, 24-20.
  • W6: Beat Missouri, 40-34.
  • W7: Bye
  • W8: Lost to Mississippi State, 45-7.
  • W9: Tennessee
  • W10: Ole Miss
  • W11: At Vanderbilt
  • W12: At Georgia
  • W13: Lousiville

The Wildcats’ schedule is ranked as the nation’s 59th most difficult. Tennessee’s schedule is now ranked 9th, which is a huge jump from last week due to having played Alabama.

Stats

Purely from a passing yards allowed perspective, Kentucky will be the worst pass defense the Vols have faced this season. Their run defense looks most like South Carolina’s and Georgia Tech’s, and their scoring defense is a mix between UMass and Florida. On offense, the best comparisons are South Carolina and UMass on the ground, Alabama through the air, and Florida and South Carolina on the scoreboard. The SPM’s official score prediction is Kentucky 24, Tennessee 18, and my eyeballed adjustment is Kentucky 20, Tennessee 17. Details below.

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 124.6 rushing yards per game, while Kentucky is giving up 123.6 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Kentucky, is South Carolina, which is giving up 142.0 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 120 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Kentucky is Georgia Tech, which is allowing 116.8. Tennessee got 148 on the ground against Georgia Tech. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Kentucky is 120.

Kentucky rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 247.0 rushing yards per game, while the Kentucky run game is averaging 135.0 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is getting 110.9 yards per game on the ground, and they got 194 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is averaging 137.9 rushing yards per game and got 144 against Tennessee. I’m guessing that Kentucky will get a little over its average and end up with 150 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 165.1 passing yards per game, and Kentucky is allowing 270.1, which means they are the worst pass defense the Vols have played so far this year. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina. They’re allowing 232.3 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 133 against them. I’m going to guess that Tennessee will put up around 150 passing yards this weekend.

Kentucky passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 158.1 passing yards per game. Kentucky is getting 201.7. This number is almost exactly the same as the “next worst” opponent, which happens to be Alabama (201.0). The Tide got 332 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 226.4 passing yards per game and got 129 against Tennessee. Those numbers make it really difficult to feel good about a prediction, but I’m going to take a stab in the dark and go with Kentucky putting up around its average of 200 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 19.6 points per game (discount this by the poor trend the last few games, though), and Kentucky is allowing 24.7. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is allowing 31.0 points per game, and Tennessee got 17 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida. They’re allowing 23.3 points per game, and Tennessee got 20 against them. My prediction is that Tennessee will score around 18 points against Kentucky. Because that’s a weird football number, and because of the Tennessee offense’s trend toward the drain recently, I’m going with 17.

Kentucky scoring

Tennessee is allowing 26.9 points per game. Kentucky is averaging 24.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 23.7 points, and they got 26 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 25.1 points and got 15 against Tennessee. I’m going with Kentucky putting up about 20 points against Tennessee.

SUMMARY

  • Tennessee rushing yards: 120
  • Kentucky rushing yards: 150
  • Tennessee passing yards: 150
  • Kentucky passing yards: 200
  • Tennessee points: 17
  • Kentucky points: 20

Those are my eyeball-adjusted predictions. For the record, the SPM itself is spitting out Kentucky 23.8, Tennessee 18.3.

Current betting lines and other statistical models

The SPM is in agreement with Vegas, as the spread opened at 5.5, with an over/under of 46.5. That makes it look like Kentucky, 26-21 or so.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 43.8% chance of beating Kentucky, and S&P+ gives them a 42% chance, setting the game at Kentucky, 26.2-22.8. So S&P+ likes the Vols to cover, but the SPM thinks the opening line was perfect and is therefore staying far away from it.

Last Week

Here’s how the statsy preview machine did for the game between Tennessee and Alabama last week.

  • Tennessee rushing yards: 80 (actually 64)
  • Alabama rushing yards: 300 (actually 272)
  • Tennessee passing yards: 185 (actually 44)
  • Alabama passing yards: 170 (actually 332)
  • Tennessee points: 7 (actually 7)
  • Alabama points: 45 (actually 45)

Hey, I’d say that’s pretty good, although those numbers were eyeball-adjusted. The SPM itself said Alabama 33, Tennessee 7.

Did the Statsy Preview Machine win in Vegas?

The line was Alabama -37 at kickoff, and the SPM said Tennessee would cover, so no. The SPM actually fell off quite a bit from its first full week in the wild when it went 68%. Last week, it dropped to 53%.

John Kelly and Will Ignont cited for possession

Knoxville police cited star Tennessee Volunteer running back John Kelly and freshman linebacker Will Ignont last night for misdemeanor drug possession. Police pulled Kelly over at 10:46 p.m. on Cumberland Avenue because a headlight on the car he was driving was out and, upon smelling marijuana, searched the car with consent and found 4.6 grams of pot and a glass pipe. The players have to present themselves for booking at the Knox County Sheriff’s Office before November 7.

Tennessee’s director of football communications released a statement saying that they were aware of the situation and were looking into it. So far, there’s been no announcement concerning the players’ availability for this weekend’s game against Kentucky.

It’s hard to get too alarmed about a pot possession charge in this day and age, but it certainly comes at a bad time for Butch Jones and the Tennessee program. With Jones in a posture of not being able to do anything right and having every action he takes and word he utters subjected to exaggerated scrutiny, adding a no-win situation to the mix just complicates things even further. Should he suspend his team’s best player for what may be Jones’ most important game, or should he keep the punishment internal?

Everyone loves John Kelly, and a minor offense concerning a drug that’s legal in several states likely isn’t going to change that. He’s the undisputed leader of the team and the one guy who’s really doing his best to keep the team together in the midst of the storm. But having that guy be the one guy who gets his name in the paper for the wrong reason is disappointing even if you’re someone who thinks this particular violation is more of a rule than a moral failing.

I’m certain that Kelly will bounce back and put this behind him. I’ll be rooting for him to do so. What this means for a team teetering on the edge of a cliff, though, remains to be seen.

What does Kentucky do well (and not so well)?

Over the course of the last three games, we’ve seen the Vols go up against two of the nation’s best teams, and the Vols have the statistical bruises to prove it. This week, Tennessee gets a bit of a reprieve, as they trade elite opponents for a merely good one. Here’s what the NCAA statistics say the Kentucky Wildcats do well, what they don’t do well, and what it all might mean for Tennessee when they meet up with them Saturday night in Lexington.

National Unit Rankings

Offensive observations. Honestly, I’m kind of surprised to learn that Kentucky’s total offense is ranked 112th in the nation. They’re vulnerable to sacks, they don’t gain a lot of yards either on the ground or through the air. Somehow, they seem to be good in the red zone, though, and they’re fairly safe with the ball in the air. Overall, this does not look like a particularly frightening offense.

Defensive observations. Well, this looks better than last week. Kentucky is fairly stout against the run, but other than that, they’re middle-of-the-road to just plain bad. Honestly, it looks like the opportunity for the Vols here is in the passing game, if only they can manage a passing attack.

Special teams, Turnovers, and Penalties observations. Kentucky is extremely good on special teams and very good in the discipline categories of penalties and turnovers. They’re good returning kicks and punts and at covering both punts and kicks. And they do not give you things like free yards from penalties or fumbles.

 

Kentucky Players to Watch

Offense

Senior quarterback Stephen Johnson is currently 112-of-183 for 1,355 yards and nine touchdowns with four interceptions. He’s also a threat to run, as he’s carried the ball 53 times for another 198 yards and two rushing touchdowns. His partner in the backfield is sophomore running back Benny Snell, who’s rushed 133 times for 541 yards and six touchdowns. The main target in the passing game is senior wide receiver Garrett Johnson, who’s caught 32 passes for 369 yards and two touchdowns.

Defense

On defense, Kentucky’s tackles are pretty evenly distributed among junior defensive back Mike Edwards (54), senior linebacker Courtney Love (51), and junior defensive back Darius West (49). Junior linebacker Josh Allen leads the team in sacks with 6.5 and tackles for loss. Edwards, in addition to leading the team in tackles, also leads the team in passes defended (8) and interceptions (3).

Special Teams

Senior kicker Austin MacGinnis is 13-of-18 on field goals and is perfect on attempts of 39 yards and shorter. He’s 3-of-5 between 40-49 and 2-of-5 over 50. Only 17 of his 39 kickoffs are touchbacks, so there’s opportunity on kickoff returns there for the Vols.

The Gameplan

Tennessee should still be able to out-talent Kentucky. The Vols defense should be able to lock down Kentucky’s fairly feeble rushing attack, make them one-dimensional, and then turn up the heat with pressure and sacks.

On offense, we may find rushing yards hard to come by once again this week, but there are opportunities in the passing game if only Jarrett Guarantano and the receivers can find something that works. They shouldn’t have to worry too much about pressure in the backfield, so maybe that’s all they need to finally find some offensive magic. And if the passing game gets rolling, maybe that opens things up for John Kelly and the run game.

But the Vols are starting at a disadvantage with their tendency to give away gifts in penalties, as we can’t count on Kentucky returning the favor.

Bottom line, Tennessee’s defense should be able to do its part to win the game, and the offense will have opportunities through the air. Whether they can finally take advantage of opportunities, though, well, that’s the question.