As the head coach might say, Saturday is a critical day for the Tennessee program. The good news, from the head coach’s perspective:  Butch Jones’ teams have dominated Kentucky…and only Kentucky.

Since 2013 the Vols are 4-0 against the Wildcats. The results have been much more mixed against the rest of the SEC East:  1-4 against Florida, 2-3 against Georgia, 3-2 against South Carolina, and ties waiting to be broken with Missouri and Vanderbilt. And the distance between the Vols against Kentucky and the Vols against the rest of the division is even more stark when you add point differential to the equation.

Here’s the margin of victory chart against the SEC East in Butch’s five seasons:

Remove Kentucky, and the Vols have played 18 of the other 23 division games within 11 points under Butch Jones. And the margins are razor thin against South Carolina, Missouri, and Georgia before this year. It’s never been that close with the Wildcats, including last year when Tennessee led by 27 with seven minutes to play before two Kentucky touchdowns in garbage time brought the margin closer.

If there’s good news for Kentucky here, it’s that the Vols have done it every time with offense. Last year Tennessee put the first 10+ yard per play performance on an opponent of the post-Fulmer era; the Vols have scored 151 points on the Cats in the last three years. Even the 2013 team, one week after struggling so mightily with Vanderbilt, had its best performance of the season against a power five opponent by putting 6.32 yards per play on Kentucky.

Perhaps Kentucky will be the medicine for Tennessee’s anemic offense one more time tomorrow. The more relevant point here for the Vol football conversation is how Tennessee has continued to play close games regardless of opponent, unless that opponent is Kentucky.

From @SBN_BillC… #Chance pic.twitter.com/SkVGCNAF0o

— Gabriel (@Gabe_TFB) October 13, 2017

The Vols, of course, have already played four such games this year, three of them decided on the final play. In 2016 Tennessee went to the final snap against Appalachian State, Georgia, Texas A&M, and South Carolina. The 2015 Vols, now regarded as the closest thing we’ve seen to a championship-level team under Butch Jones, played six one possession games in a span of eight contests. Plus five more in 2014 and four others in 2013. If the average team plays within one possession 35% of the time, the Vols under Butch Jones are at 43.3%.

It’s interesting now to look back at his tenure at Cincinnati and Central Michigan too, where something that looked like a strength in comparison to Derek Dooley – he knows how to win close games! – now looks more like a red flag by playing in so many of them. In his second year at Central Michigan, Butch Jones and the Chippewas were in nine one possession games.

If the Vols do end up looking for a new coach, and the pendulum continues to swing the way it typically does around here when making a change, Tennessee might look less for someone who wins close games and more for someone aggressive enough to take advantage of every snap, and avoid playing them if at all possible.

The last four years say otherwise, but the first seven weeks of this year and much of Butch’s tenure suggests we’re in for another close game tomorrow. In a critical contest, that would again make the margin of error awfully thin.

The GRT Statsy Preview Machine, having done a pretty good job with the Alabama game last week, now turns its attention to the Tennessee-Kentucky game this weekend in Lexington. The bottom line? The SPM agrees with Vegas, ESPN’s FPI, and S&P+ in concluding that Kentucky should win this one by somewhere around five or six points. I’ve eyeball-adjusted that to three points.

Before we get to the particulars, though, let’s have a look at Kentucky’s resume to date to see whether and to what degree a statistical comparison of the two teams might need to be adjusted for strength of schedule.

Kentucky’s Schedule (5-2, 2-2 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat Southern Miss, 24-17.
• W2: Best E Kentucky, 27-16.
• W3: Beat South Carolina, 23-13.
• W4: Lost to #20 Florida, 28-27.
• W5: Beat E Michigan, 24-20.
• W6: Beat Missouri, 40-34.
• W7: Bye
• W8: Lost to Mississippi State, 45-7.
• W9: Tennessee
• W10: Ole Miss
• W11: At Vanderbilt
• W12: At Georgia
• W13: Lousiville

The Wildcats’ schedule is ranked as the nation’s 59th most difficult. Tennessee’s schedule is now ranked 9th, which is a huge jump from last week due to having played Alabama.

Stats

Purely from a passing yards allowed perspective, Kentucky will be the worst pass defense the Vols have faced this season. Their run defense looks most like South Carolina’s and Georgia Tech’s, and their scoring defense is a mix between UMass and Florida. On offense, the best comparisons are South Carolina and UMass on the ground, Alabama through the air, and Florida and South Carolina on the scoreboard. The SPM’s official score prediction is Kentucky 24, Tennessee 18, and my eyeballed adjustment is Kentucky 20, Tennessee 17. Details below.

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 124.6 rushing yards per game, while Kentucky is giving up 123.6 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Kentucky, is South Carolina, which is giving up 142.0 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 120 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Kentucky is Georgia Tech, which is allowing 116.8. Tennessee got 148 on the ground against Georgia Tech. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Kentucky is 120.

Kentucky rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 247.0 rushing yards per game, while the Kentucky run game is averaging 135.0 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is getting 110.9 yards per game on the ground, and they got 194 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is averaging 137.9 rushing yards per game and got 144 against Tennessee. I’m guessing that Kentucky will get a little over its average and end up with 150 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 165.1 passing yards per game, and Kentucky is allowing 270.1, which means they are the worst pass defense the Vols have played so far this year. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina. They’re allowing 232.3 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 133 against them. I’m going to guess that Tennessee will put up around 150 passing yards this weekend.

Kentucky passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 158.1 passing yards per game. Kentucky is getting 201.7. This number is almost exactly the same as the “next worst” opponent, which happens to be Alabama (201.0). The Tide got 332 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 226.4 passing yards per game and got 129 against Tennessee. Those numbers make it really difficult to feel good about a prediction, but I’m going to take a stab in the dark and go with Kentucky putting up around its average of 200 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 19.6 points per game (discount this by the poor trend the last few games, though), and Kentucky is allowing 24.7. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is allowing 31.0 points per game, and Tennessee got 17 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida. They’re allowing 23.3 points per game, and Tennessee got 20 against them. My prediction is that Tennessee will score around 18 points against Kentucky. Because that’s a weird football number, and because of the Tennessee offense’s trend toward the drain recently, I’m going with 17.

Kentucky scoring

Tennessee is allowing 26.9 points per game. Kentucky is averaging 24.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 23.7 points, and they got 26 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 25.1 points and got 15 against Tennessee. I’m going with Kentucky putting up about 20 points against Tennessee.

SUMMARY

• Tennessee rushing yards: 120
• Kentucky rushing yards: 150
• Tennessee passing yards: 150
• Kentucky passing yards: 200
• Tennessee points: 17
• Kentucky points: 20

Those are my eyeball-adjusted predictions. For the record, the SPM itself is spitting out Kentucky 23.8, Tennessee 18.3.

Current betting lines and other statistical models

The SPM is in agreement with Vegas, as the spread opened at 5.5, with an over/under of 46.5. That makes it look like Kentucky, 26-21 or so.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 43.8% chance of beating Kentucky, and S&P+ gives them a 42% chance, setting the game at Kentucky, 26.2-22.8. So S&P+ likes the Vols to cover, but the SPM thinks the opening line was perfect and is therefore staying far away from it.

Last Week

Here’s how the statsy preview machine did for the game between Tennessee and Alabama last week.

• Tennessee rushing yards: 80 (actually 64)
• Alabama rushing yards: 300 (actually 272)
• Tennessee passing yards: 185 (actually 44)
• Alabama passing yards: 170 (actually 332)
• Tennessee points: 7 (actually 7)
• Alabama points: 45 (actually 45)

Hey, I’d say that’s pretty good, although those numbers were eyeball-adjusted. The SPM itself said Alabama 33, Tennessee 7.

Did the Statsy Preview Machine win in Vegas?

The line was Alabama -37 at kickoff, and the SPM said Tennessee would cover, so no. The SPM actually fell off quite a bit from its first full week in the wild when it went 68%. Last week, it dropped to 53%.

Over the course of the last three games, we’ve seen the Vols go up against two of the nation’s best teams, and the Vols have the statistical bruises to prove it. This week, Tennessee gets a bit of a reprieve, as they trade elite opponents for a merely good one. Here’s what the NCAA statistics say the Kentucky Wildcats do well, what they don’t do well, and what it all might mean for Tennessee when they meet up with them Saturday night in Lexington.

National Unit Rankings

Offensive observations. Honestly, I’m kind of surprised to learn that Kentucky’s total offense is ranked 112th in the nation. They’re vulnerable to sacks, they don’t gain a lot of yards either on the ground or through the air. Somehow, they seem to be good in the red zone, though, and they’re fairly safe with the ball in the air. Overall, this does not look like a particularly frightening offense.

Defensive observations. Well, this looks better than last week. Kentucky is fairly stout against the run, but other than that, they’re middle-of-the-road to just plain bad. Honestly, it looks like the opportunity for the Vols here is in the passing game, if only they can manage a passing attack.

Special teams, Turnovers, and Penalties observations. Kentucky is extremely good on special teams and very good in the discipline categories of penalties and turnovers. They’re good returning kicks and punts and at covering both punts and kicks. And they do not give you things like free yards from penalties or fumbles.

Kentucky Players to Watch

Offense

Senior quarterback Stephen Johnson is currently 112-of-183 for 1,355 yards and nine touchdowns with four interceptions. He’s also a threat to run, as he’s carried the ball 53 times for another 198 yards and two rushing touchdowns. His partner in the backfield is sophomore running back Benny Snell, who’s rushed 133 times for 541 yards and six touchdowns. The main target in the passing game is senior wide receiver Garrett Johnson, who’s caught 32 passes for 369 yards and two touchdowns.

Defense

On defense, Kentucky’s tackles are pretty evenly distributed among junior defensive back Mike Edwards (54), senior linebacker Courtney Love (51), and junior defensive back Darius West (49). Junior linebacker Josh Allen leads the team in sacks with 6.5 and tackles for loss. Edwards, in addition to leading the team in tackles, also leads the team in passes defended (8) and interceptions (3).

Special Teams

Senior kicker Austin MacGinnis is 13-of-18 on field goals and is perfect on attempts of 39 yards and shorter. He’s 3-of-5 between 40-49 and 2-of-5 over 50. Only 17 of his 39 kickoffs are touchbacks, so there’s opportunity on kickoff returns there for the Vols.

The Gameplan

Tennessee should still be able to out-talent Kentucky. The Vols defense should be able to lock down Kentucky’s fairly feeble rushing attack, make them one-dimensional, and then turn up the heat with pressure and sacks.

On offense, we may find rushing yards hard to come by once again this week, but there are opportunities in the passing game if only Jarrett Guarantano and the receivers can find something that works. They shouldn’t have to worry too much about pressure in the backfield, so maybe that’s all they need to finally find some offensive magic. And if the passing game gets rolling, maybe that opens things up for John Kelly and the run game.

But the Vols are starting at a disadvantage with their tendency to give away gifts in penalties, as we can’t count on Kentucky returning the favor.

Bottom line, Tennessee’s defense should be able to do its part to win the game, and the offense will have opportunities through the air. Whether they can finally take advantage of opportunities, though, well, that’s the question.

Here the side-by-side projected starters for this week’s game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Kentucky Wildcats, with each players’ class and published recruiting rankings. If you can’t see the entire chart embedded below, click here for full page:

As before, the color codes are based on the range of 247 Composite numbers on the list. The range starts with deep green at the top and ends with deep red at the bottom.

Here’s the list of starters, sorted by recruiting ranking (full page here):

Observations

• The stars breakdown:
  • 5-stars: Tennessee 2, Kentucky 0
  • 4-stars: Tennessee 10, Kentucky 5
  • 3-stars: Tennessee 10, Kentucky 16
  • 2-stars: Tennessee 0, Kentucky 1
  • No rating: Tennessee 1, Kentucky 0
• Tennessee has 12 of the 15 highest-rated players.
• Kentucky’s highest-rated players are sophomore left tackle Landon Young, redshirt freshman center Drake Jackson, and senior nose guard Matt Elam.
• Kentucky’s highest-rated unit is its offensive line, anchored by 4-stars Young and Jackson. They’ll be going up against Tennessee’s highest-rated unit, its defensive line.
• Kentucky’s lowest-rated unit is its “second-level” offensive unit of quarterback Stephen Johnson and running back Benny Snell. The primary takeaway from that piece of information is that some players end up playing way above their recruiting grades. Johnson and Snell together may have the lowest average rating of any Kentucky starting units, but they are actually a real strength of the team. They’re probably helped a lot by that offensive line, though, too.
• Tennessee’s lowest-rated unit is its receiving corps, notwithstanding Marquez Callaway’s high 4-star rating.

Butch Jones announced at his press conference Monday that junior offensive lineman Jack Jones has decided to end his football career due to ongoing issues with his neck and shoulder.

“He’s had some recurring neck and shoulder injuries,” Butch Jones said, “and after meeting with doctors, everyone felt that it was in his best interest that he would no longer play football. Obviously, we hurt for Jack. We hurt for his great family. We’ll be there for support, and he’ll continue to be a member of this football team in moving forward.”

This is terrible news for Jones, who was a 4-star prospect in the Class of 2015 and who started seven games and played 18 in his first two seasons before playing intermittently this fall. He started the first three games at left guard, but missed the last two as he sought second and third opinions about his injury status and future with football.

It’s also terrible news for a struggling offensive line, who now has lost Jones forever to injury, Venzell Boulware forever to transfer, and Chance Hall this entire season to injury. The unit will also be without Brett Kendrick, Jashon Robertson, and Coleman Thomas after this season due to graduation.

That leaves a couple of highly-touted returning players in Drew Richmond and Trey Smith, along with a handful of other guys, but the unit is once again sorely lacking in numbers. There are three offensive lineman commits so far in this year’s recruiting class, including 5-star Cade Mays, but with the turmoil in the program and the unknown future for Butch Jones, many are justifiably concerned about the program’s ability to turn those commitments into letters of intent. We’ll just have to see how it all plays out.

Most importantly, though, best wishes to Jack Jones. Good luck, young man. I hope you find great success and joy in whatever lies ahead.

Here’s our regular look at the Tennessee Volunteers’ national rankings in all of the various NCAA statistical categories. There’s a reason you’re seeing red.

Offense

Tennessee’s offensive stat rankings after Week 8 (click link for full table)

Offensive observations. My goodness, what can you say about that? That would classify as “doing everything poorly,” and a whopping 11 categories are ranked 107th or worse. The trend to red is terrifying, like Attack of the Killer Tomatoes.

Defense

Tennessee’s defense stat rankings after Week 8 (click link for full table)

Defensive observations. Well, this at least shows that the Georgia Tech game was a bit of an anomaly, a word I can never spell right on the first try. The team’s also better this year than last at allowing passing yards and on first down, so that’s good. Everything else still needs work, even if it’s not the four alarm fire the offense is right now.

Special Teams

Tennessee’s special teams stat rankings after Week 8 (click link for full table)

Special teams observations. Green is good, in case you’ve forgotten. The return game is actually very, very good. Punting is still good. Return coverage is not so good. Moving on.

Turnovers and Penalties

Tennessee’s turnover and penalty stat rankings after Week 8 (click link for full table)

Turnovers and Penalties observations. A whole bunch of whatever here. You might be inclined to say that penalties are not a huge problem (but can be improved), except that it seems like most of the team’s penalties have been at the absolute worst time. And most the turnovers numbers are back to terrible again.