Gameday on Rocky Top W12 Guessing Game Results: Beware the bananas

Marietta Vol takes the lead (and the unenviable position of the sole target of the blue shell that is about to hit), while I binge on bananas.

Play by play below.

Top 10 as of the end of last week

Sam 94
Fatso 84
Marietta Vol 79
Raven17 76
cscott95 72
Dave Strunk 70
Daetilus 69
Josh Farrar 66
MitchellK 66
Evan 64

 

Rounds 1&2

These were gimmes. Because of a bolt drawn in the last round last week, LTVol99 had the first question all to himself and got 15 points. Everybody who played got 20 points on the second question just to put a little distance between y’all and all the slackers.

Mushrooms: Marietta Vol, Josh Farrar, Raven17, and Dave Strunk

Bananas: Sam got two of these, and the other two went to Daetilus and me. This would be my first this week, but not my last.

Blue shells and bolts: There were no bolts, but new player KD picked up and released a new blue shell.

Top 10 after Rounds 1&2:

Marietta Vol 104
Sam 104
Fatso 104
Raven17 101
LTVol99 96
Dave Strunk 95
cscott95 92
Josh Farrar 91
MitchellK 86
Daetilus 84
Evan 84

 

Round 3

Q: Who scores first? (20 points)

A: LSU (20 points)

All but three players get this right and get 20 points for their disloyalty.

Mushrooms: Daetilus and Harley

Bananas: WIll Shelton and Displaced_Vol_Fan

Blue shells and bolts: Nothing new, but the blue shell is on the move.

Top 10 after Round 2:

Marietta Vol 124
Sam 124
Fatso 124
Raven17 121
LTVol99 116
Dave Strunk 115
cscott95 112
Daetilus 109
Evan 104
RandyH 99

 

Round 4

Q: Which is greater, Derrius Guice’s rushing yards or Tennessee’s passing yards? (20 points)

A: Tennessee’s passing yards (20 points) (249 vs. 97)

Eight players get this right and get 20 points for it.

Mushrooms: Josh Farrar and Displaced_Vol_Fan

Bananas: MitchellK and me, my second this week.

Blue shells and bolts: Nothing new, but the blue shell continues to fly toward the front.

Top 10 after Round 4:

Marietta Vol 144
Sam 144
Raven17 141
Fatso 124
LTVol99 116
Josh Farrar 116
Dave Strunk 115
cscott95 112
Daetilus 109
Evan 104
Jayyyy 104

 

Round 5

Q: How many rushing yards will LSU get against Tennessee? (20-30 points)

A: 101-200 (20 points) (200 on the nose)

Only three players get this right and get 20 points for it.

Mushrooms: LTVol99 and Dave Strunk

Bananas: Guess who got both of these? That’s four for me just this week. Argh.

Blue shells and bolts: No new blue shells, but the one let fly a few rounds ago is closing in on the leaders. Also, Evan nabs a bolt and gets the next question to himself.

Top 10 after Round 5:

Marietta Vol 164
Raven17 161
Sam 144
Fatso 124
LTVol99 121
Dave Strunk 120
RandyH 119
Josh Farrar 116
cscott95 112
Daetilus 109

 

Full table

Player Prior Prior Specials R1 R1 Sub R1 Specials R1 Total R2 R2 Sub R2 Specials R2 Total R3 R3 Sub R3 Specials R3 Total R4 R4 Sub R4 Specials R4 Total R5 R5 Sub R5 Specials R5 Total
Marietta Vol 79 79 5 84 20 104 104 20 124 124 20 144 144 20 164 164
Raven17 76 76 76 20 96 5 101 20 121 121 20 141 141 20 161 161
Sam 94 94 -10 84 20 104 104 20 124 124 20 144 144 144 144
Fatso 84 84 84 20 104 104 20 124 124 124 124 124 124
LTVol99 61 BOLT 15 76 76 20 96 96 20 116 116 116 116 116 5 121
Dave Strunk 70 70 70 20 90 5 95 20 115 115 115 115 115 5 120
RandyH 59 59 59 20 79 79 20 99 99 99 99 20 119 119
Josh Farrar 66 66 5 71 20 91 91 91 91 20 111 5 116 116 116
cscott95 72 72 72 20 92 92 20 112 112 112 112 112 112
Daetilus 69 69 69 20 89 -5 84 20 104 5 109 109 109 109 109
Evan 64 64 64 20 84 84 20 104 104 104 104 104 BOLT 104
Jayyyy 44 44 44 20 64 64 20 84 84 20 104 104 104 104
MitchellK 66 66 66 20 86 86 86 86 20 106 -5 101 101 101
Harley 47 47 47 20 67 67 20 87 5 92 92 92 92 92
Joel Hollingsworth 62 62 62 20 82 -5 77 20 97 97 97 -5 92 92 -10 82
Bulldog 85 20 20 20 20 40 40 20 60 60 20 80 80 80 80
TennVol95 58 58 58 20 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78
Displaced_Vol_Fan 27 27 27 20 47 47 20 67 -5 62 62 5 67 67 67
Will Shelton 31 31 31 20 51 51 20 71 -5 66 66 66 66 66
KD 0 0 0 20 20 BLUE SHELL 20 20 40 40 20 60 60 60 60
PaVol 32 32 32 32 32 32
Oleg Zeltser 28 28 28 28 28 28
Phil 28 28 28 28 28 28
Alyas Grey 26 26 26 26 26 26
RockyTopinKY 26 26 26 26 26 26
WHODEYVOLS 25 25 25 25 25 25
vfl_mks 22 22 22 22 22 22
Packtar 13 13 13 13 13 13
PaVolFan 10 10 10 10 10 10
hoosiervol 9 9 9 9 9 9
NJ Vol 8 8 8 8 8 8
RockyTop5 8 8 8 8 8 8
charles matthews 7 7 7 7 7 7
GoVols365 6 6 6 6 6 6
nelsona350 6 6 6 6 6 6
driskigm 5 5 5 5 5 5
Gr82baTNVol 5 5 5 5 5 5
Jason 5 5 5 5 5 5
Rockytop01 5 5 5 5 5 5
btpenley 4 4 4 4 4 4
wreckvol 4 4 4 4 4 4
Drew 3 3 3 3 3 3
BibleVol 1 1 1 1 1 1
Craig 1 1 1 1 1 1
Larry Hildebrand 1 1 1 1 1 1
utkjmitch 1 1 1 1 1 1
benvol 0 0 0 0 0 0
Donald Trump 0 0 0 0 0 0
GTZW 0 0 0 0 0 0
MediocreVOL 0 0 0 0 0 0
Volfaninsc 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cheering in the rain: Despite everything, the spirit of Tennessee Football is alive and well

I’ve seen a lot of amazing things in Neyland Stadium. One of them, I saw last night, at the most unlikely time.

The announced crowd in Neyland for the LSU game was over 96,000. There’s no way there were actually that many bodies in seats. I had four tickets and used only one. The season ticket holder to my left had two and was alone as well. It was one of those games where you could actually stretch out a little instead of feeling like you’re in a clown car with 102,455.

It’s no wonder. The forecast called for cold temperatures, high wind, rain, and little to no chance of a win. On the drive in, hosts of the official pre-game radio shows asked colleagues on at least two occasions what the Vols could do to win the game, and the answer was actual dead air. The co-hosts eventually came up with something to say in response to the questions, but it was obvious from the tone with which those answers were delivered that no one actually believed any of it would matter. Even the one former player I heard pick the Vols couldn’t come up with a game plan to make it happen.

The lack of hope on Rocky Top was at an all-time high, and for the privilege of watching a hopeless game, fans would have to sit in terrible weather all night long.

And yet, there was, in fact, still a huge crowd. Jimmy Hyams estimated that the actual attendance was more like 70,000, which sounds about right to me. They were into it, too, especially when the Vols’ defense forced two three-and-outs and held LSU to a field goal despite the first of two muffed punts giving them starting field position at the 15-yard line. And when Tennessee’s offense started actually moving the ball and tied the game with its own field goal in the wind, the crowd cheered even more.

They were not even deterred when the Vols muffed a punt the second time and gave LSU the ball inside the 20, or when the Tigers turned it into a touchdown this time. The defense was doing its part. The offense was showing life. The team went into the locker room at the half down only 17-10 despite essentially giving away 10 points.

And that was when the most amazing thing happened.

The temperature dropped. The rain and the wind increased. Much of the crowd headed for the shelter of the concourse. Those who remained in the stands had as much trouble catching the wind-swept sound waves from the Chris Blue halftime show as the punt returners had had catching punts.

And then BOOM!

Half of the lights in the stadium lost power. At the same time, the wind seemed to double in strength, and it was raging in every direction at once. Into this tempest, the heavens dumped abominable amounts of rain, which the angry wind caught and made fly, sending it sideways and skyward again for another round.

My view from XX5 at the beginning of the second half.

Pelted by the rain and the wind, the 25,000 or so people still in the stands began to rise to their feet one by one. The team hadn’t even come back onto the field yet, but the crowd began cheering in defiance of the elements. Bring it on! We’re still here.

Just moments later, the players began to emerge from the tunnel, and they didn’t just halfheartedly jog onto the field, either. No, they sprinted and skipped and jumped Into the half-lit maelstrom with their arms raised in the air in triumph. Is that all you got? We’re still here.

With even nature turned against them now, there they remained, a team and its fans, taking it on the chin together from every angle imaginable and somehow still upright, still smiling, still frustrating all attempts to rob them of their resolve.

It didn’t matter that they were teetering on the precipice of the worst season this proud program has ever seen.

It didn’t matter that all hope for the season had been lost weeks ago.

It did not matter that they’d given their all for no reward, over and over and over and over again.

They endured. Still there, still curling a finger to beckon The Opponent to come at them again because now they had seen it all and survived. They were still there.

At rock bottom, with half power, during a raging storm. In another game that they would eventually lose.

No matter.

The heart of Tennessee Football had been battered, beaten, bruised, and finally cast off the cliff into the abyss.

And there they discovered that despite it all, they were alive and well, even at the bottom of everything.

Go Vols.

The view from my seat at the beginning of the second half.

LSU 30, Tennessee 10: Dreaming of Different Days

Hey, now! That’s the kind of free-spirited failure we can get behind!

Tennessee came out against LSU on Saturday night in Neyland Stadium with a different attitude, a different mindset and looked for a half like a much different football team.

Then, the storms came and washed away all those good vibes that began with the second half-opening kickoff lost in the blustering wind and buckets of rain. A three-and-out series that went backward and ended against the Vols’ own goal line, a flipped field and Tigers touchdown later, it was 23-10.

After all that — unfortunately for Tennessee’s spirited fans rejuvenated from Butch Jones’ firing last Sunday — it wasn’t a different team in orange. It was the same, ol’ Vols.

Butch is gone, but his legacy lives on!

They couldn’t pass the ball consistently, they couldn’t block anybody with the shadow of an offensive line, they couldn’t get key stops, they couldn’t go an entire series without a crippling penalty, and they couldn’t catch a kick.

For every big play like the Marquez Calloway drive to end the first half and the 60-yard Jeff George grab later, there were so many eye-covering blunders that kept the Vols from being a true threat at all in the second half. The stink of the Jones era eventually smothered the good vibes, manifesting itself with UT’s lack of halftime adjustments (for the, oh, 10th time in 10 games this season) and with Larry Scott’s miffed play calling.

Jarrett Guarantano may be the quarterback of the future in Knoxville, but he’s not the answer for the present. He may be nicknamed “The Guarantee,” but the only thing assured this year is that Tennessee is going to lose. You can pretty much set your watch by that, and it’s been a skeleton crew of Vols that’s hard to watch, just to be honest.

So many miscues and so few difference-makers led to loss No. 7 on the season. Thank God that Jones is gone, and this team looked better in the first half than it has in a long time, but Tennessee now can just beg 2017 to go away.

There will be no bowl game, just when we thought we’d moved past those days in this program. There are so many roster questions and holes that it’s hard to hold much optimism without a complete culture change. The only thing that matters is next week’s Pride Game, which means so much more than just beating Vanderbilt; the Vols will try to keep from being the only team in school history to lose eight regular-season games.

At this point, it may seem small; but it’s all that’s left.

The strength-and-conditioning failures from Jones’ tenure will be ghouls that haunt this program for at least a year and maybe more. As much as we hated and denied the anonymous NFL scout who told SEC Country’s Mike Griffith that this was a “soft” team before the season started, he could not have been more right. When you put those two factors together, you’ve got a team that gets hurt too much, injured far too much, and gets pushed around on the field no matter who’s in the lineup.

Believe it or not, the Tennessee D played well for much of the night against a plodding-but-efficient LSU offense. Nigel Warrior, Daniel Bituli and Co. were all over the field. They made plays they haven’t made for much of the season and played with a different level of excitement, happy perhaps to be shed of their head coach.

It was the closest thing to a Five-Star Heart performance that we’ve seen all year. And it was still nowhere near enough to finish anywhere near respectfully on the scoreboard. This team needs much more separation from this forgettable season than five days.

I found myself watching the clock Saturday night, just wanting the game to end. I’ll do the same next week wanting the season to follow suit. Just go away, let us be, let us try to do this thing over yet again. Because there isn’t anything left to play for.

So, we look toward the future. It’s hard to know what we’ll find there. What kind of identity will this team take under a new coach? How many of the recruits will be around to see that happen? Will mystery, MIA guys like Marcus Tatum, Jauan Jennings, Drew Richmond, Quinten Dormady and others be a part of the program? Can we actually see players get stronger, develop and improve? Is the quarterback of the future even on this year’s roster?

Unfortunately for Tennessee fans, we’re left with questions. But we can at least take solace that unanswered questions are always, unequivocally better than the wrong answer, and Jones is the wrong answer. We see that every game with this disjointed, undisciplined team that plays without any direction whatsoever. We don’t know what we’ve got on the roster because the offensive scheme is so poor and the gaps on defense are so great that it’s impossible to see what 2018 may hold.

All we know is it’s going to be different than this, and thank God for that. We have to take “different” because even though we don’t know if it’s going to be better, it’s simply hard for any of us to believe that it can be worse than what we saw Saturday night, what we’ve seen all year.

Yes, it was so much better against the Tigers than it has been. And it was still a 30-10 loss. Think about that, Vols fans. We can’t even be happy about moral victories anymore; we’re stuck with finding happiness in maybes. We’re forced to live in the past and the future because the present is rife with failure.

You wonder why there was so little talk about Tennessee-LSU this week in Knoxville. It’s because nobody wanted it to come, and, once it got here, even the excitement came and went like a firework, bright and sparkly before quickly disappearing. Like has been the case for much of the past 15 years, we have to take our joy in everything about the football program but the actual football.

So, leave us alone. Thank God that’s over, right? Now, let us get back to tracking planes and following leads for every Joe Fan the Source Man who knows Jon Gruden’s wife’s brother-in-law’s cousin’s mother. Let us stake out airports and wear out our F5 buttons and look for any glimmer of joy in the hope that something good is going to come our way; that something can change this infinite sadness; that different days are nigh.

Hope is what we do best. It’s all we have.

Tennessee Vols vs. LSU Tigers TV time and channel, online game-watching party

The Tennessee Volunteers host the LSU Tigers tonight in Neyland Stadium at 7:00 p.m. The game will be televised on ESPN. It’s not looking good for the Vols, but with interim head coach Brady Hoke shaking things up a bit, there’s a lot more of the unknown involved in this game, and that can cut either way.

I’ll be bundled up at the game, but for those of you who won’t be there, y’all can hang out in the comment section below and pull for the Vols together.

Go Vols.

College Football TV Schedule: Week 12’s Saturday

Here’s the Week 12 college football TV schedule for Saturday.

DATE TIME TV AWAY TEAM HOME TEAM
11/18/17 12:00 PM CBS (16) Mississippi State Arkansas
11/18/17 12:00 PM ESPNU (18) UCF Temple
11/18/17 12:00 PM FS1 (6) TCU Texas Tech
11/18/17 12:00 PM CBSSN Cincinnati East Carolina
11/18/17 12:00 PM RSN Delaware State Florida State
11/18/17 12:00 PM ABC Virginia (7) Miami, FL
11/18/17 12:00 PM SECN Mercer (2) Alabama
11/18/17 12:00 PM BTN Minnesota (25) Northwestern
11/18/17 12:00 PM FOX Michigan (8) Wisconsin
11/18/17 12:00 PM ESPNews SMU (22) Memphis
11/18/17 12:00 PM BTN Rutgers Indiana
11/18/17 12:00 PM ESPN Texas West Virginia
11/18/17 12:00 PM ESPN2 ULM (10) Auburn
11/18/17 12:20 PM ACCN Pittsburgh (17) Virginia Tech
11/18/17 12:20 PM ACCN The Citadel (4) Clemson
11/18/17 2:00 PM ATTSNRM Fresno State Wyoming
11/18/17 2:00 PM ESPN3 Rice Old Dominion
11/18/17 2:30 PM FSN (21) Iowa State Baylor
11/18/17 3:00 PM Pac-12N Arizona State Oregon State
11/18/17 3:00 PM CUSA.TV Charlotte Southern Miss
11/18/17 3:00 PM PPV/MWN Hawaii Utah State
11/18/17 3:00 PM CUSA.TV Louisiana Tech UTEP
11/18/17 3:00 PM ESPN3 South Alabama Georgia Southern
11/18/17 3:00 PM ESPN3 Texas State Arkansas State
11/18/17 3:00 PM BYUtv/ESPN3 UMass BYU
11/18/17 3:00 PM ACCNExtra Western Carolina North Carolina
11/18/17 3:30 PM ESPN (5) Oklahoma Kansas
11/18/17 3:30 PM CBS Kentucky (1) Georgia
11/18/17 3:30 PM ABC Illinois (13) Ohio State
11/18/17 3:30 PM RSN Georgia Tech Duke
11/18/17 3:30 PM CBSSN San Jose State Colorado State
11/18/17 3:30 PM BTN Purdue (20) Iowa
11/18/17 3:30 PM ESPNU Syracuse Louisville
11/18/17 3:30 PM ESPN2 Kansas State (15) Oklahoma State
11/18/17 3:30 PM NBC Navy (3) Notre Dame
11/18/17 4:00 PM ESPNews Houston Tulane
11/18/17 4:00 PM FOX Maryland (12) Michigan State
11/18/17 4:00 PM FS1 Nebraska (14) Penn State
11/18/17 4:00 PM SECN UAB Florida
11/18/17 4:00 PM SECN Alt. Wofford South Carolina
11/18/17 5:00 PM ESPN3/ISP Coastal Carolina Idaho
11/18/17 5:00 PM ESPN3 New Mexico State UL Lafayette
11/18/17 6:30 PM beIN SPORTS Army North Texas
11/18/17 7:00 PM Stadium FIU Florida Atlantic
11/18/17 7:00 PM CBSSN Boston College UConn
11/18/17 7:00 PM ESPN (24) LSU Tennessee
11/18/17 7:00 PM KMYS/Stadium Marshall UTSA
11/18/17 7:00 PM ESPN2 Texas A&M Ole Miss
11/18/17 7:00 PM Pac-12N Arizona Oregon
11/18/17 7:30 PM SECN Missouri Vanderbilt
11/18/17 7:30 PM ESPNU (23) NC State Wake Forest
11/18/17 8:00 PM FOX California Stanford
11/18/17 8:00 PM ABC UCLA (11) USC
11/18/17 10:15 PM ESPN2 Air Force Boise State
11/18/17 10:30 PM CBSSN Nevada San Diego State
11/18/17 10:30 PM ESPN Utah (9) Washington

The Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game: LSU Tigers edition

Time to play the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game. If you have no idea what that is, you can find out everything you need to know here. Last week’s results are here.

Let’sa go!

  1. Submit your answers to our three questions below.
  2. Click the “Submit” button.
  3. Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.

 

Good luck, and Go Vols!

 

Tennessee 2018 Depth Chart First Draft

 

Whether it’s Jon Gruden, Dan Mullen, a surprise or someone further down the list, somebody is going to coach this team next year. What will Tennessee’s next coach inherit?

This is our first, rough draft of Tennessee’s 2018 depth chart. The point isn’t to squabble over why one guy is over another on the first team; generally I went with who played most often this season and will leave conversations like, “Why doesn’t Tyler Byrd play more?” for the off-season and the next coach. It also does not assume newcomers will step in and contribute meaningfully right away, except where the depth chart has a hole that cannot be filled by anyone other than a true freshman. We obviously don’t know about transfers, and this depth chart assumes everyone who can return to school will do so.

As you’ll see, many of these names are already playing big roles for the Vols. Tennessee’s games down the stretch this fall matter most for how they get this team ready for next fall, especially guys like Guarantano and Shawn Shamburger.

Take a look:

Pos. First Team Year Second Team Year
QB Jarrett Guarantano RSo Quinten Dormady Sr
RB John Kelly Sr Ty Chandler So
WR Jauan Jennings RJr Josh Palmer So
WR Marquez Callaway Jr Jordan Murphy So
WR Brandon Johnson Jr Tyler Byrd Jr
TE Austin Pope RSo Eli Wolf RJr
OT Drew Richmond RJr K’Rojhn Calbert RFr
OG Ryan Johnson RSo Riley Locklear So
C
OG Trey Smith So Ollie Lane Fr
OT Marcus Tatum Jr Devante Brooks RSo
DE Kyle Phillips Sr Jonathan Kongbo RSr
DT Shy Tuttle Sr Quay Picou Sr
DT Kahlil McKenzie Sr Alexis Johnson RSr
DE Darrell Taylor RJr Matthew Butler So
LB Darrin Kirkland Jr. RJr Quart’e Sapp RJr
LB Daniel Bituli Jr Austin Smith RJr
CB Shawn Shamburger So Cheyenne Labruzza RFr
CB Marquill Osborne Jr Jaycee Horn Fr
NB Rashaan Gaulden RSr Baylen Buchanan Jr
S Nigel Warrior Jr Todd Kelly Jr. RSr
S Micah Abernathy Sr Theo Jackson So
K Brent Cimaglia So
P

A couple of observations:

Good News

  • If consistent quarterback play emerges, the Vols can be dangerous at the skill positions. John Kelly, Ty Chandler, Jauan Jennings, and Marquez Callaway are all proven threats. And other than John Kelly, all of those players would be eligible to return in 2019.
  • If healthy, the Vols can also be dangerous up the middle of their defense. Senior editions of Tuttle and McKenzie in the middle, the return of a healthy Darrin Kirkland Jr. with Bituli beside him at linebacker, and all three safeties again available (assuming a redshirt for Todd Kelly Jr.). That’s a ton of returning experience. If the new coaches can continue to develop Kyle Phillips and Darrell Taylor off the end, the front seven (or six) can be a positive force for the Vols in 2018.
  • Lane Kiffin, Derek Dooley, and Butch Jones all had to start freshmen right away. The next coach shouldn’t have to do the same, give or take an offensive lineman. There are holes here, but not many of them will show up immediately. Strong work on the recruiting trail for 2019 will be of vital importance, but right now this program is deeper and stronger than what at least Dooley and Butch Jones walked into.

Just News

  • Tennessee must replace both its starting corners, and will lose the services of the Shaq Wiggins experiment that never quite turned out. But play at this position hasn’t been particularly strong this year, and Shawn Shamburger has shown flashes. There are few proven options behind him – highly-rated but yet-to-arrive Marquill Osborne, plus a redshirt freshman in Labruzza and a true freshman in Horn, if he stays committed. But the bar for overall improvement at the position is low, and if Rashaan Gaulden returns the Vols will still have some good news at corner/nickel.
  • The Vols would love to have an answer to their quarterback question that still leaves the team with a capable backup, whether that’s Dormady, Will McBride, or incoming four-star Adrian Martinez.

Bad News

  • The Vols have a major issue on the offensive line. I’ve listed every scholarship lineman available for 2018, not including Chance Hall and Nathan Niehaus, neither of whom may return from health issues to play football again. I’ve also included three-star commit Ollie Lane at guard; the Vols also hold a commitment from three-star tackle Tanner Antonutti. That’s nine scholarship linemen for next fall at the moment. Who plays center? If Trey Smith slides out to tackle for good, how does that change things on the interior? Can anyone talk Venzell Boulware into coming back to the program? Even if you put Cade Mays back in the mix, this is a serious problem requiring immediate attention from the new coach in recruiting/junior college. As good as Tennessee’s skill players can be, if you can’t block in this league, you’re not going far.
  • Four years of Ethan Wolf will give way to a big question mark at tight end. Can his little brother help fill the void? How often will the new guy want to use the tight end?
  • Who punts?
  • The Vols could have a major issue on the defensive line in 2019. Developing young talent at defensive tackle, including incoming players like Greg Emerson and D’Andre Litaker, will be of critical importance for the future. If healthy Tennessee won’t need many of them next fall, but might need all of them in 2019.

What stands out to you for the Vols on the field next fall?

The Statsy Preview Machine interrupts these #Grumors to bring you bad news

While everyone else is hugging the #Grumors like a long-lost loved one, the Statsy Preview Machine has been hard at work looking at this weekend’s game between the Tennessee Vols and the LSU Tigers. It has bad news.

LSU (7-3, 4-2 SEC, #20)

  • W1: Beat BYU, 27-0.
  • W2: Beat Chattanooga, 45-10.
  • W3: Lost to Mississippi State, 37-7.
  • W4: Beat Syracuse, 35-26.
  • W5: Lost at home, during Homecoming, to Troy, 24-21.
  • W6: Beat #21 Florida, 17-16.
  • W7: Beat #10 Auburn, 27-23.
  • W8: Beat Ole Miss, 40-24.
  • W9: Bye
  • W10: Lost to #2 Alabama, 24-10.
  • W11: Best Arkansas, 33-10.
  • W12: Tennessee
  • W13: Texas A&M

That schedule is ranked as the nation’s 28th most difficult. Tennessee’s schedule is ranked 20th now, so the stats of the two teams have been compiled against pretty similar competition.

Stats

It looks like Tennessee’s offense is going to continue to struggle this weekend going up against LSU’s defense. If the Vols defense performs up to expectations, it doesn’t look like LSU will run away with it, though. Details below.

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 131.6 rushing yards per game, while LSU is giving up 142.4 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is LSU, is Missouri, which is giving up 177.8 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 146 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than LSU is South Carolina, which is allowing 142.1. Tennessee got 120 on the ground against South Carolina. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against LSU is 110.

LSU rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 256.9 rushing yards per game, while the LSU run game is averaging 207.9 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Missouri, which is getting 195.6 yards per game on the ground, and they got 433 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is averaging 256.0 rushing yards per game and got 294 against Tennessee. I’m guessing LSU will get about 300 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 165.2 passing yards per game, and LSU is allowing 174.7. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Southern Mississippi, which is giving up 187.3 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 115 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia. They’re allowing 173.7 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 80 against them. My guess is that Tennessee will put up 110 passing yards this weekend.

LSU passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 157.6 passing yards per game. LSU is getting 198.4. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Kentucky, which is getting 192.5 yards per game through the air, and they got 82 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama, which is averaging 203.3 passing yards per game and got 332 against Tennessee. I’m going with LSU putting up about 200 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 20.4 points per game, and LSU is allowing 19.4. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is allowing 20.6 points per game, and Tennessee got 9 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia. They’re allowing 14.5 points per game, and Tennessee got 0 against them. That leads to such an extraordinarily depressingly low number for the Vols that I can’t wrap my mind around it, so I’m going to ignore the 4.5 points the machine is coughing up like particularly crusty hairball. So, my prediction is that Tennessee will score around 13 points against LSU.

LSU scoring

Tennessee is allowing 27.7 points per game. LSU is averaging 26.2. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is averaging 24.8 points, and they got 15 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Southern Mississippi, which is averaging 27.2 points and got 10 against Tennessee. I’m going with LSU putting up somewhere around 24 points against Tennessee.

SUMMARY

  • Tennessee rushing yards: 110
  • LSU rushing yards: 300
  • Tennessee passing yards: 110
  • LSU passing yards: 200
  • Tennessee points: 13
  • LSU points: 24

Those are my eyeball-adjusted predictions. For the record, the SPM itself is spitting out LSU 17.3, Tennessee 6.3.

Current betting lines and other statistical models

The spread opened at LSU -14, with an over/under of 46. The line is now between 15.5 and 16. That makes the score look like LSU, 30-16 or so. So, the SPM is more pessimistic on the number of points scored and more optimistic on the spread.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 22.6% chance of beating LSU, and the S&P+ gives the Vols a 25% chance of winning, projecting a score of 30.7-18.9, LSU.

Basically, the statistical models and Vegas all like LSU by at least 11 points this weekend, but the stat models are also saying that Tennessee should cover.

Last Week

Here’s how the Statsy Preview Machine did for the game between Tennessee and Kentucky last week.

  • Tennessee rushing yards: 160 (actually 146)
  • Missouri rushing yards: 150 (actually 433) (!)
  • Tennessee passing yards: 200 (actually 139)
  • Missouri passing yards: 240 (actually 226)
  • Tennessee points: 31 (actually 17)
  • Missouri points: 43 (actually 50)

Again, those were eyeball-adjusted numbers. The SPM itself said Missouri 33.3, Tennessee 24.

Did the Statsy Preview Machine win in Vegas?

The line was Missouri -10.5, and the SPM was thinking more like Missouri -9, so no, the SPM lost that game. It also had its first losing week since we started testing it, going 26-30 for the week, a 46.43%. It’s still doing well over the long haul, though, sitting at 157-122 (56.27%). For the record, it’s gone 67.92%, 53.06%, and 54.55%, 55.93%, and 46.43%.

Dear Jon,

 

Dear Jon,

It’s me.  Again.

I know it’s been five years since we last spoke, and I still can’t get you off my mind.  I know we’ve got a history, and I see what you’ve made of yourself.  It makes me sad, and proud, and hopeful.  Maybe someday we can make it work again, you know?  Maybe now, perhaps?

Ah, listen to me… an old softy.  But I have to get this off my chest.  It’s why I’m writing you. You have to know how I really feel, one last time.  If we’re ever going to make this work, I feel like I’m going to have to be the one who is the aggressor.  We’ve flirted for years, but it’s never gotten serious.  We’re getting old, and I don’t turn the heads like I used to, that’s for sure.  It’s been nearly 19 years since somebody nice has given me any jewelry.  You remember that big, beautiful ring, but even they collect dust all these years.  Nobody remembers it now.  Heck, I see kids ready to go to college that don’t even remember that I was a looker in my prime.

You remember, Jon.  You were here for some of my glory days.  I’m hoping you still remember, and that’s why I have to write this.

Everyday, I look at this big, beautiful house I’m living in by the river, and it’s become this cavern of sadness.  I wake up every day, and it’s this mausoleum.  People just drive by and shake their heads.  They remember the good times, too.  I’m talking family, Jon.  Family! They can’t believe what a sad place this has become.  It’s been in my family for generations, and it’s pathetic the shape it’s in.  You should have seen it when my friends from Massachusetts came to visit earlier this year; even then, it felt so empty.  Especially in the fourth quarter.

You know about the guy I was seeing.  Butch.  I know you two were cordial, and I’m happy about that.  You were around more, and I loved seeing you, no matter how much it hurt. Butch had some good qualities.  He was a little corny, but he cared about me, you know?  After those previous two forgettable relationships, I needed that.

These last few weeks have been difficult.  Looking back, I’ve been fooling myself so long, and I feel so stupid.  I wanted so bad for him to be the one, when all this time, I couldn’t stop thinking about you.  I have to say that out loud, and you need to hear it.  If you don’t, I fear our time will pass for good.  Butch and I were officially over Sunday, as I’m sure you heard.  But I was done with him months ago.

By that weekend when my Massachusetts visitors came down, I knew.  Heck, I was sure the week before on our vacation to Florida, especially at the very end, right before we came back to Knoxville.  What an angry trip home that was.  I quit saying Hail Marys, Jon.

If I’m honest with myself, I’ve had feelings it wasn’t going to end well with Butch dating back a couple years now.  You can’t just let strangers from Oklahoma come into your house and take it over like they own it.  I’ve worked too hard to make this a home, and he did that; it was shameful.  Then, you should have seen what happened when we headed to Florida the week after!  I can’t even talk about it still without tearing up.

Yes, we go back to the same place every other year down there.  It’s not on the beach; it’s hot, sweaty and full of rednecks, but for some reason, we had to go.  People wear jorts there, for goodness sake.  I know you live in that state, and I know you’d love to come home.  For years, it looked like it would be a better trip, going to Florida.  But Butch just made it worse.

I hope those days are over now.  I’m finally free, Jon.  And I’m happy.  And I don’t know what the future holds, but I no longer have to feel as I’ve felt, like I’ve got to defend Butch and try to make him into something he’s not.  I’m reinvigorated!  I feel like a champion of life, like I’m rebuilding my life, brick by bri…

Ahh, there I go again.

I have to laugh.  He’s brainwashed me so long, that even though I’ve reached the next chapter, I still hear his voice.  It makes me shudder, but right now, I feel I’ll always hear his voice without a drastic change.

Which brings me to you, Jon.  Again.  After all these years.  I know you have feelings for me still.  You wouldn’t come around so much if you didn’t.  You wouldn’t call all our old buddies, some of those guys who helped make those good times great way back then and be trying to get the band back together.  I know you look at the old place and you hear about how I’m going to fix her up.  $340 million should do it, huh?  And all those old friends can come back, Jon.  I want them back.  I may even NEED them back.

But it means nothing without you.

Every time I see you tip back a Corona, it takes me back to when we were young again.  I sit by the television on Monday nights, just waiting to catch a glimpse of that wisp of blond hair, trying to see what color tie you’re wearing, what subtle hints you may drop during the game.  It’s always fun to hear you talk about a game, but I know where your heart is.  Or, at least, I think I know.

Sometimes, when I lay down at night, I catch myself whispering “Spider 2 Y Banana” and laugh to myself.  I have to, to keep from crying.

You’re not getting any younger, Jon.  And I may never be what I used to be, but I know with you back in my life, I can be great again!  Come on back to me, Jon!  I may sound desperate — and I’m not trying to — because I’ve still got a shadow of my pride; all these sad years haven’t taken that from me yet.

We can bush hog that patch of land over in Jeff County that you own, build a nice house, be near your son.  Yeah, I know he’s back up here, living close to me, doing well.  I’m taking good care of him.

I can even co-exist with Cindy.  If you remember, we loved each other once.  She’s always loved me.  She cheered me on back in our day, back when we were all one big, happy family.  Now, in the evening of your lives, it’s time for us to all spend some time together again.  Whaddaya say, Jon?

If you aren’t in love with me anymore, Jon, I need to know.  Right now.  Lay it on the table. Don’t string me along.  There are others out there who will love me for who I am.  There’s this fella down in Starkville, a little hunchbacked, but he’s got that sparkle in his eye and that smart-aleck wit I love.  Then there are a couple of young guys I’m courting — one in Orlando and another in Memphis — that haven’t quite reached their prime, but they’ve got potential.

I’m just jettisoning off everywhere looking for the right man.  You know I can’t be alone, after all. I’ve even entertained the thought of Lane again.  I know, I know.  That one-night stand has taken me years to get over, but he still just knows what to say to the ladies!

Still, they’re all poor substitutes for you.

I’ve heard all the rumors about that dead-end job you’re in now.  I know how much they love you, but we all see that company is hemorrhaging money, and they can’t keep you forever. You’re too good for them, Jon.  Yeah, sure, you could go back to Tampa, or Indianapolis, or God knows where else if you wanted.  But did you really love that, Jon?  They made you grimace; I remember that ugly face you made!  That’s not my Jonny!  Then, they called you names for making it.  Uck, I always hated “Chucky.”  What kind of name is that?  May as well be named Lyle!

No, you were meant for the mountain air.  You were meant to talk ball and wear orange and dip Copenhagen and be yourself.  We were meant for each other, Jon.

Think about it. You know where I am.

XOXOXO

Love,

Tennessee Football

How to catch a white whale: Alabama, Tennessee, Nick Saban, and Jon Gruden

Ever since the Tennessee Volunteers fired Phillip Fulmer back in 2008, they have been pursuing the elusive greener grass that prompted them into that action. At every major crossroad along the way, they chose a road to #nowhere, each one ending in failure at another dusty crossroad.

The desire to land Jon Gruden as Tennessee’s next head coach originated at that first crossroad back in 2008, as Gruden was at that time a successful head coach for the NFL’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At the time, Gruden said nice things about Tennessee when asked, but for whatever reason at the time, it didn’t happen.

The Grumors intensified at each subsequent crossroad. They were there when Lane Kiffin left and when Derek Dooley was fired, and now that Butch Jones has been relieved of his duties, the Grumors are at a fever pitch. Part of the reason for the intensity this time around is the belief in the veracity of one of the rumors from the last time, namely that Gruden was interested until he was told by Tennessee that they wanted to take a look at another guy first.

Today, we have a new athletic director and a generally more desperate group of decision-makers who presumably wouldn’t make that same mistake again. But still, all we have are rumors. The latest? Gruden has begun talking like he’d maybe he’s getting the itch to get back into coaching. Reports have surfaced that Gruden’s been calling former Vols to gauge their interest in “potentially joining him in Knoxville.” And almost immediately thereafter, there were reports that Gruden has no interest in being the next Tennessee coach.

Same as it ever was.

We don’t know what, if anything, is going on between the Vols and Jon Gruden at this particular time, and we probably can’t. But one this is certain: Gruden is the guy Tennessee’s been obsessing over more than anything else for nearly a decade.

So, how do you catch a white whale?

Let’s see how Alabama did it.

Alabama’s 38-day recruitment of Nick Saban

The following facts are gleaned from the excellent article by Al Blanton on Saturday Down South.

Context – A proud program that had become a laughingstock

For the past decade, the team had a 1-9 record against one of its rivals and a 3-7 record against two others. They’d also lost to several teams that they should never have lost to. They’d become a national joke.

They fired one coach for not winning enough, and then when his replacement abruptly left for another school, they hired a guy they had to fire immediately for misconduct. His replacement lasted four years and was adored in the beginning but mocked mercilessly at the bitter end.

This wasn’t Tennessee in 2017, but Alabama after the 2006 season. Having just fired Mike Shula, they were standing at yet another crossroad, the fourth in a decade. They needed to get this one right.

Day 1 – Identify Spurrier and Saban as the top targets, engage backchannel feelers

The guy in charge at the time was athletic director Mal Moore. A former Alabama backup quarterback under Bear Bryant, Moore had had a 31-year coaching career, primarily at Alabama, before settling in at the AD’s office. After five years as an assistant athletic director, he became the guy in charge of everything in 1999.

Moore fired Mike Shula in late November, and was desperately seeking a proven winner with a championship pedigree. The two guys he wanted most were Steve Spurrier and Nick Saban, with Saban his prime target.

On November 28, 2006, Moore began using back channels to gauge the interest of both Spurrier and Saban. Moore already had a relationship with Spurrier, so he was easier to reach. They talked multiple times, but Spurrier repeatedly told Moore that he was committed to what he was doing at South Carolina.

Moore didn’t know Saban. He did, however, have a nephew named Chuck who happened to be contractor who’d developed first a business relationship and then a friendship with Saban when Nick and his wife bought a home in Lake Burton, Georgia soon after taking the LSU job. So Moore called Chuck.

Moore would later communicate with Saban’s agent, Jimmy Sexton, but all of the preliminary rapport-building and warming up work was done surreptitiously through Chuck.

Day 6 – Interviews of Plan B candidates

On Sunday, December 3, Moore attended the National Football Foundation’s annual banquet in New York and used the opportunity to meet with some other coaching candidates, including Rich Rodriguez and Greg Schiano.

Day 7 – Clandestine preliminary meeting with agent nets bad news that they couldn’t talk to him yet

That Monday, December 4, Moore met with Jimmy Sexton in a private area of the hotel. Sexton told him that if Saban was going to talk to him, it wouldn’t be until after his season with the Miami Dolphins was over. Despite being discouraged by the bad news about the timing, Moore was encouraged by Sexton telling him that Saban wasn’t especially happy in the NFL and by a promise Sexton made to call Moore by Wednesday to let him know for sure whether he’d be able to talk to Saban after the Dolphins’ season.

Day 8 – Second interviews with Plan B candidates; decide whether to execute Plan B or continue pursuing top target

Moore met privately with each of Rodriguez and Schiano on Tuesday, December 5. Both were interested, and now Moore faced the decision of offering the job to one of them or waiting another month just for the opportunity to talk to Saban.

Day 9 – An impatient mistake

On Wednesday, Moore waited for Sexton to call. If Sexton told him that Saban didn’t want to talk to him, Moore could make the offer to either Rodriguez or Schiano relatively free of any anxiety. But if Sexton instead told him that he could talk to Saban after the Dolphins’ season, then he had a decision to make.

But when Sexton did not call at the time he said he would, Moore took that as a “no,” and immediately offered the job to Rodriguez. He accepted, and they scheduled a meeting between Moore and Rodriguez’s agent for the following day at Moore’s home.

But only minutes later, Sexton called. He’d been unable to call at the promised time because his flight had been delayed and he’d had no phone service. (The Saturday Down South article does not say whether Sexton told Moore at this time that Saban would talk after the season, but one can infer from the rest of the article that that question had still not been resolved.)

Day 10 – The intervention of fate

As the officials at Alabama were drawing up the contract for Rodriguez, and as Moore was meeting Rodriguez’s agent in his home to go over the details of his employment, a retired former assistant of Moore’s named Steve Townsend knocked at Moore’s front door. Moore answered, and Townsend told him that he had “impeccable” information that Rodriguez had decided to stay at West Virginia.

That turned out to be true, and publicly, Moore was humiliated, but privately, he was relieved that he could continue to pursue Saban.

Day 11 – A secret meeting; selling the school on the money

On Friday, 12/8/06, Moore called a secret meeting at his house. Those invited had to park blocks away for the sake of secrecy. Not even his colleagues in the athletic department knew the identities of these guys, as they were shuffled into a laundry room when the colleagues showed up for a meeting in another part of the house.

The first order of business concerned money. Saban was making over $5 million at Miami. Alabama had been paying Shula $1.55 million, and at the time, there were only a few college coaches making over $3 million. Moore and his team looked at the data and decided that they could offer Saban $4 million. The authority to make such an offer, though, would have to be granted by Alabama president Dr. Robert Witt and Paul Bryant, Jr.

Moore made the pitch, and they bought it.

Now Moore just had to get to Saban and sell him on it, too.

Days 14-18 – Another secret meeting with the agent, but no hint of interest one way or the other from the target

Sometime during the week of December 11, Moore met with Sexton in Tuscaloosa in another meeting so secretive that Moore was shuttled to Moore’s house after parking his car at a shopping center. They talked more details, but Sexton warned Moore that the deal was contingent on Saban agreeing to meet with him.

Meanwhile, Saban was in the midst of a grueling December with the Dolphins. After a 21-0 loss to Buffalo put the Dolphins out of playoff contention, rumors began to really heat up.

Day 24 – Saban says “No” to Alabama in front of the rest of the world

On Thursday, December 21, the whole thing began to boil over, and the press began hounding Saban about the rumors. He broke.

“I guess I have to say it,” Saban told the media. “I’m not going to be the Alabama coach.”

Days 25-36 – Moore flies to Florida without an appointment to see Saban anyway

Moore was not deterred by Saban’s public proclamation that he was not going to become Alabama’s next coach. He and Townsend began preparing for a trip to Florida for Moore for one last shot at Saban.

On New Year’s Day, Moore flew to Miami and checked in to a hotel in Fort Lauderdale that was a block from Saban’s house.

Day 37 – Moore desperately seeks an in-person meeting with Saban

Persistence

Moore spent the next two days in communication with the people on his team who were in contact with Sexton and Saban’s wife, Terry. The goal was to get Moore face-to-face with Saban himself.

At some point on Tuesday, Moore told Sexton that they needed to make this happen. When Sexton asked him to be patient, Moore responded that he was “taking this plane to Cuba if Nick Saban isn’t on it.”

Saban’s wife gives Moore an opportunity

It was Terry Saban who ultimately invited Moore to the house. They had lunch and hit it off, but Nick was at a year-end meeting with his players. Terry invited Moore back for dinner. When Saban called to tell her he was staying with the Dolphins, she insisted that he at least meet with Moore, and Saban finally agreed.

Moore closes the deal

That night, Moore finally convinced Nick Saban to come to Alabama. According to Terry, as quoted by Saturday Down South, Moore said all of the right things to Saban, the things that resonated with him the most:

“It was Mal Moore’s soft approach, fatherly advice, sweet Southern charm … ‘I’m here for you … come back home  … back to where you belong … you are a college coach … we need each other …’ His siren songs were in my ears and I made sure Nick heard them. The three of us stood in our living room in tears, acknowledging that our hearts were still in college and that there was not a number that Wayne [Huizenga, owner of the Dolphins] could throw out to us that would make us reconsider what was the best thing for our family, not double, not triple. It was never about that.”

Day 38 – Moore brings the big fish home

Huizenga made one last pass at Saban, but ultimately gave Saban his blessing to leave. Saban informed his staff.

As the news of Saban’s departure spread, rumors about his arrival at Alabama boiled over.

Saban’s family piled into a Mercedes with their luggage and Mal Moore and headed north. Moore got Chuck on the phone to tell him the news. “We got him!”

Lessons on how to catch a white whale

Hard times lead to better efforts

It’s difficult to remember, but Alabama was absolutely reeling back in 2006, much like Tennessee is now. They’d tried the regular playbook for coaching hires multiple times, and it hadn’t worked. It was largely because they were desperate for success after so long without it that they went all in on their top target.

Planning to fail

Hearing that a school is talking to non-top target coaches doesn’t mean that they aren’t also still pursuing their top targets. It’s prudent to have a Plan B, and the above story suggests that there is more secrecy associated with top targets. Fans may hear more about Plan Bs than top targets.

Impatience can be a huge mistake

I don’t know how long Moore waited for that phone call from Sexton, but he should have waited longer. That has to be a pressure cooker of a situation, though, not knowing whether to take the bird in the hand right now or risk everything for Door No. 2. So, yes, you don’t want to miss an opportunity when it comes your way, but you also don’t want to settle too early while you’re still in pursuit of what you really want. Patience is still a virtue. It’s just that it also goes hand-in-hand with wisdom.

Fate

If Rodriguez hadn’t changed his mind for whatever reason, he’d have been the Alabama coach. Who knows what historical dominoes might have fallen instead had that actually happened. Some other school may have ended up with Saban or he may have ended up finding fulfillment in the NFL with Miami or some other team.

Sometimes the stars align and enable your efforts to succeed rather than fail.

The money isn’t solely up to the athletic director

Moore would likely not have landed Saban without paying him what they did. But it was a ton of money at the time, and his first job was to get the key decision-makers on board with spending so much. I would love to know the details of those conversations, and they would be fascinating. The athletic department had just struck out on three coaching hires in a row, and now they wanted how much? Credit Moore for getting that done and the decision-makers for agreeing.

Don’t take “No” for an answer

This is probably the biggest lesson from the entire story. Moore didn’t even get to talk to Saban directly until very near the end of the process. At best, he had mere hints that Saban might potentially be interested, and on the other side of the ledger, he had a very public proclamation from the man himself that it was not going to happen. But Moore was undeterred, and he remained so until he got into Saban’s living room and got Saban to say yes.

Never, never ever, underestimate the influence of the gate-keepers

Nick Saban said yes, and Mal Moore worked his tail off and didn’t give up, but it sounds to me like Terry Saban is the one who made it happen. At the very least, she is an absolutely crucial component to the story. She was the first one to listen to Moore himself. She was sold, and she “insisted” that Nick meet with him. That may be the main reason he did. It’s the same with any person who has the authority to grant access to a VIP. Sell them first, because they’ll likely be your best endorsement. They may make the deal for you.

An athletic director has to be a recruiter

Moore had experience recruiting players as a college coach. He knew how to sell and how to close the deal. He’d heard from Sexton that Saban wasn’t particularly happy in the NFL, and he likely heard from Terry at lunch that Saban missed college. And that was his pitch when he finally got some face time with Saban. According to Terry, it was that message that closed the deal.

Honestly, this is what concerns me the most about Tennessee going after Gruden right now. As far as I can tell, there’s nothing in John Currie’s background that would make you think he has experience at recruiting blue chips to programs. Hopefully, he recognizes this and delegates this most-important function to someone who does, someone like Phillip Fulmer. Or someone who can accomplish the same thing based on other factors, such as Peyton Manning or some other VFL.

The blue print

Getting a blue chip coach for your football program isn’t like posting the job on Indeed.com and waiting for the applications to pour in. White whales don’t apply for jobs. They are hunted, recruited for the position.

Recruiting is, at its base, sales. It helps to have a good product to sell, of course, but being good at sales also requires grit, determination, perseverance, luck, and not taking no for an answer. If you can’t reach the target, sell the gatekeeper (really, you should sell them regardless). And when you get in front of the guy, know what is important to him so that you can determine if it is indeed a good fit, and if it is, emphasize the right things in your pitch.

You may not land him, and it may not work out even if you do land him.

But if Tennessee can finally get its white whale, that scene at the Alabama airport the first week of January, 2006 will be dwarfed by what would transpire at McGhee-Tyson.