Dear Jon,

It’s me.  Again.

I know it’s been five years since we last spoke, and I still can’t get you off my mind.  I know we’ve got a history, and I see what you’ve made of yourself.  It makes me sad, and proud, and hopeful.  Maybe someday we can make it work again, you know?  Maybe now, perhaps?

Ah, listen to me… an old softy.  But I have to get this off my chest.  It’s why I’m writing you. You have to know how I really feel, one last time.  If we’re ever going to make this work, I feel like I’m going to have to be the one who is the aggressor.  We’ve flirted for years, but it’s never gotten serious.  We’re getting old, and I don’t turn the heads like I used to, that’s for sure.  It’s been nearly 19 years since somebody nice has given me any jewelry.  You remember that big, beautiful ring, but even they collect dust all these years.  Nobody remembers it now.  Heck, I see kids ready to go to college that don’t even remember that I was a looker in my prime.

You remember, Jon.  You were here for some of my glory days.  I’m hoping you still remember, and that’s why I have to write this.

Everyday, I look at this big, beautiful house I’m living in by the river, and it’s become this cavern of sadness.  I wake up every day, and it’s this mausoleum.  People just drive by and shake their heads.  They remember the good times, too.  I’m talking family, Jon.  Family! They can’t believe what a sad place this has become.  It’s been in my family for generations, and it’s pathetic the shape it’s in.  You should have seen it when my friends from Massachusetts came to visit earlier this year; even then, it felt so empty.  Especially in the fourth quarter.

You know about the guy I was seeing.  Butch.  I know you two were cordial, and I’m happy about that.  You were around more, and I loved seeing you, no matter how much it hurt. Butch had some good qualities.  He was a little corny, but he cared about me, you know?  After those previous two forgettable relationships, I needed that.

These last few weeks have been difficult.  Looking back, I’ve been fooling myself so long, and I feel so stupid.  I wanted so bad for him to be the one, when all this time, I couldn’t stop thinking about you.  I have to say that out loud, and you need to hear it.  If you don’t, I fear our time will pass for good.  Butch and I were officially over Sunday, as I’m sure you heard.  But I was done with him months ago.

By that weekend when my Massachusetts visitors came down, I knew.  Heck, I was sure the week before on our vacation to Florida, especially at the very end, right before we came back to Knoxville.  What an angry trip home that was.  I quit saying Hail Marys, Jon.

If I’m honest with myself, I’ve had feelings it wasn’t going to end well with Butch dating back a couple years now.  You can’t just let strangers from Oklahoma come into your house and take it over like they own it.  I’ve worked too hard to make this a home, and he did that; it was shameful.  Then, you should have seen what happened when we headed to Florida the week after!  I can’t even talk about it still without tearing up.

Yes, we go back to the same place every other year down there.  It’s not on the beach; it’s hot, sweaty and full of rednecks, but for some reason, we had to go.  People wear jorts there, for goodness sake.  I know you live in that state, and I know you’d love to come home.  For years, it looked like it would be a better trip, going to Florida.  But Butch just made it worse.

I hope those days are over now.  I’m finally free, Jon.  And I’m happy.  And I don’t know what the future holds, but I no longer have to feel as I’ve felt, like I’ve got to defend Butch and try to make him into something he’s not.  I’m reinvigorated!  I feel like a champion of life, like I’m rebuilding my life, brick by bri…

Ahh, there I go again.

I have to laugh.  He’s brainwashed me so long, that even though I’ve reached the next chapter, I still hear his voice.  It makes me shudder, but right now, I feel I’ll always hear his voice without a drastic change.

Which brings me to you, Jon.  Again.  After all these years.  I know you have feelings for me still.  You wouldn’t come around so much if you didn’t.  You wouldn’t call all our old buddies, some of those guys who helped make those good times great way back then and be trying to get the band back together.  I know you look at the old place and you hear about how I’m going to fix her up.  $340 million should do it, huh?  And all those old friends can come back, Jon.  I want them back.  I may even NEED them back.

But it means nothing without you.

Every time I see you tip back a Corona, it takes me back to when we were young again.  I sit by the television on Monday nights, just waiting to catch a glimpse of that wisp of blond hair, trying to see what color tie you’re wearing, what subtle hints you may drop during the game.  It’s always fun to hear you talk about a game, but I know where your heart is.  Or, at least, I think I know.

Sometimes, when I lay down at night, I catch myself whispering “Spider 2 Y Banana” and laugh to myself.  I have to, to keep from crying.

You’re not getting any younger, Jon.  And I may never be what I used to be, but I know with you back in my life, I can be great again!  Come on back to me, Jon!  I may sound desperate — and I’m not trying to — because I’ve still got a shadow of my pride; all these sad years haven’t taken that from me yet.

We can bush hog that patch of land over in Jeff County that you own, build a nice house, be near your son.  Yeah, I know he’s back up here, living close to me, doing well.  I’m taking good care of him.

I can even co-exist with Cindy.  If you remember, we loved each other once.  She’s always loved me.  She cheered me on back in our day, back when we were all one big, happy family.  Now, in the evening of your lives, it’s time for us to all spend some time together again.  Whaddaya say, Jon?

If you aren’t in love with me anymore, Jon, I need to know.  Right now.  Lay it on the table. Don’t string me along.  There are others out there who will love me for who I am.  There’s this fella down in Starkville, a little hunchbacked, but he’s got that sparkle in his eye and that smart-aleck wit I love.  Then there are a couple of young guys I’m courting — one in Orlando and another in Memphis — that haven’t quite reached their prime, but they’ve got potential.

I’m just jettisoning off everywhere looking for the right man.  You know I can’t be alone, after all. I’ve even entertained the thought of Lane again.  I know, I know.  That one-night stand has taken me years to get over, but he still just knows what to say to the ladies!

Still, they’re all poor substitutes for you.

I’ve heard all the rumors about that dead-end job you’re in now.  I know how much they love you, but we all see that company is hemorrhaging money, and they can’t keep you forever. You’re too good for them, Jon.  Yeah, sure, you could go back to Tampa, or Indianapolis, or God knows where else if you wanted.  But did you really love that, Jon?  They made you grimace; I remember that ugly face you made!  That’s not my Jonny!  Then, they called you names for making it.  Uck, I always hated “Chucky.”  What kind of name is that?  May as well be named Lyle!

No, you were meant for the mountain air.  You were meant to talk ball and wear orange and dip Copenhagen and be yourself.  We were meant for each other, Jon.

Think about it. You know where I am.

XOXOXO

Love,

Tennessee Football

Ever since the Tennessee Volunteers fired Phillip Fulmer back in 2008, they have been pursuing the elusive greener grass that prompted them into that action. At every major crossroad along the way, they chose a road to #nowhere, each one ending in failure at another dusty crossroad.

The desire to land Jon Gruden as Tennessee’s next head coach originated at that first crossroad back in 2008, as Gruden was at that time a successful head coach for the NFL’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At the time, Gruden said nice things about Tennessee when asked, but for whatever reason at the time, it didn’t happen.

The Grumors intensified at each subsequent crossroad. They were there when Lane Kiffin left and when Derek Dooley was fired, and now that Butch Jones has been relieved of his duties, the Grumors are at a fever pitch. Part of the reason for the intensity this time around is the belief in the veracity of one of the rumors from the last time, namely that Gruden was interested until he was told by Tennessee that they wanted to take a look at another guy first.

Today, we have a new athletic director and a generally more desperate group of decision-makers who presumably wouldn’t make that same mistake again. But still, all we have are rumors. The latest? Gruden has begun talking like he’d maybe he’s getting the itch to get back into coaching. Reports have surfaced that Gruden’s been calling former Vols to gauge their interest in “potentially joining him in Knoxville.” And almost immediately thereafter, there were reports that Gruden has no interest in being the next Tennessee coach.

Same as it ever was.

We don’t know what, if anything, is going on between the Vols and Jon Gruden at this particular time, and we probably can’t. But one this is certain: Gruden is the guy Tennessee’s been obsessing over more than anything else for nearly a decade.

So, how do you catch a white whale?

Let’s see how Alabama did it.

Alabama’s 38-day recruitment of Nick Saban

The following facts are gleaned from the excellent article by Al Blanton on Saturday Down South.

Context – A proud program that had become a laughingstock

For the past decade, the team had a 1-9 record against one of its rivals and a 3-7 record against two others. They’d also lost to several teams that they should never have lost to. They’d become a national joke.

They fired one coach for not winning enough, and then when his replacement abruptly left for another school, they hired a guy they had to fire immediately for misconduct. His replacement lasted four years and was adored in the beginning but mocked mercilessly at the bitter end.

This wasn’t Tennessee in 2017, but Alabama after the 2006 season. Having just fired Mike Shula, they were standing at yet another crossroad, the fourth in a decade. They needed to get this one right.

Day 1 – Identify Spurrier and Saban as the top targets, engage backchannel feelers

The guy in charge at the time was athletic director Mal Moore. A former Alabama backup quarterback under Bear Bryant, Moore had had a 31-year coaching career, primarily at Alabama, before settling in at the AD’s office. After five years as an assistant athletic director, he became the guy in charge of everything in 1999.

Moore fired Mike Shula in late November, and was desperately seeking a proven winner with a championship pedigree. The two guys he wanted most were Steve Spurrier and Nick Saban, with Saban his prime target.

On November 28, 2006, Moore began using back channels to gauge the interest of both Spurrier and Saban. Moore already had a relationship with Spurrier, so he was easier to reach. They talked multiple times, but Spurrier repeatedly told Moore that he was committed to what he was doing at South Carolina.

Moore didn’t know Saban. He did, however, have a nephew named Chuck who happened to be contractor who’d developed first a business relationship and then a friendship with Saban when Nick and his wife bought a home in Lake Burton, Georgia soon after taking the LSU job. So Moore called Chuck.

Moore would later communicate with Saban’s agent, Jimmy Sexton, but all of the preliminary rapport-building and warming up work was done surreptitiously through Chuck.

Day 6 – Interviews of Plan B candidates

On Sunday, December 3, Moore attended the National Football Foundation’s annual banquet in New York and used the opportunity to meet with some other coaching candidates, including Rich Rodriguez and Greg Schiano.

Day 7 – Clandestine preliminary meeting with agent nets bad news that they couldn’t talk to him yet

That Monday, December 4, Moore met with Jimmy Sexton in a private area of the hotel. Sexton told him that if Saban was going to talk to him, it wouldn’t be until after his season with the Miami Dolphins was over. Despite being discouraged by the bad news about the timing, Moore was encouraged by Sexton telling him that Saban wasn’t especially happy in the NFL and by a promise Sexton made to call Moore by Wednesday to let him know for sure whether he’d be able to talk to Saban after the Dolphins’ season.

Day 8 – Second interviews with Plan B candidates; decide whether to execute Plan B or continue pursuing top target

Moore met privately with each of Rodriguez and Schiano on Tuesday, December 5. Both were interested, and now Moore faced the decision of offering the job to one of them or waiting another month just for the opportunity to talk to Saban.

Day 9 – An impatient mistake

On Wednesday, Moore waited for Sexton to call. If Sexton told him that Saban didn’t want to talk to him, Moore could make the offer to either Rodriguez or Schiano relatively free of any anxiety. But if Sexton instead told him that he could talk to Saban after the Dolphins’ season, then he had a decision to make.

But when Sexton did not call at the time he said he would, Moore took that as a “no,” and immediately offered the job to Rodriguez. He accepted, and they scheduled a meeting between Moore and Rodriguez’s agent for the following day at Moore’s home.

But only minutes later, Sexton called. He’d been unable to call at the promised time because his flight had been delayed and he’d had no phone service. (The Saturday Down South article does not say whether Sexton told Moore at this time that Saban would talk after the season, but one can infer from the rest of the article that that question had still not been resolved.)

Day 10 – The intervention of fate

As the officials at Alabama were drawing up the contract for Rodriguez, and as Moore was meeting Rodriguez’s agent in his home to go over the details of his employment, a retired former assistant of Moore’s named Steve Townsend knocked at Moore’s front door. Moore answered, and Townsend told him that he had “impeccable” information that Rodriguez had decided to stay at West Virginia.

That turned out to be true, and publicly, Moore was humiliated, but privately, he was relieved that he could continue to pursue Saban.

Day 11 – A secret meeting; selling the school on the money

On Friday, 12/8/06, Moore called a secret meeting at his house. Those invited had to park blocks away for the sake of secrecy. Not even his colleagues in the athletic department knew the identities of these guys, as they were shuffled into a laundry room when the colleagues showed up for a meeting in another part of the house.

The first order of business concerned money. Saban was making over $5 million at Miami. Alabama had been paying Shula $1.55 million, and at the time, there were only a few college coaches making over $3 million. Moore and his team looked at the data and decided that they could offer Saban $4 million. The authority to make such an offer, though, would have to be granted by Alabama president Dr. Robert Witt and Paul Bryant, Jr.

Moore made the pitch, and they bought it.

Now Moore just had to get to Saban and sell him on it, too.

Days 14-18 – Another secret meeting with the agent, but no hint of interest one way or the other from the target

Sometime during the week of December 11, Moore met with Sexton in Tuscaloosa in another meeting so secretive that Moore was shuttled to Moore’s house after parking his car at a shopping center. They talked more details, but Sexton warned Moore that the deal was contingent on Saban agreeing to meet with him.

Meanwhile, Saban was in the midst of a grueling December with the Dolphins. After a 21-0 loss to Buffalo put the Dolphins out of playoff contention, rumors began to really heat up.

Day 24 – Saban says “No” to Alabama in front of the rest of the world

On Thursday, December 21, the whole thing began to boil over, and the press began hounding Saban about the rumors. He broke.

“I guess I have to say it,” Saban told the media. “I’m not going to be the Alabama coach.”

Days 25-36 – Moore flies to Florida without an appointment to see Saban anyway

Moore was not deterred by Saban’s public proclamation that he was not going to become Alabama’s next coach. He and Townsend began preparing for a trip to Florida for Moore for one last shot at Saban.

On New Year’s Day, Moore flew to Miami and checked in to a hotel in Fort Lauderdale that was a block from Saban’s house.

Day 37 – Moore desperately seeks an in-person meeting with Saban

Persistence

Moore spent the next two days in communication with the people on his team who were in contact with Sexton and Saban’s wife, Terry. The goal was to get Moore face-to-face with Saban himself.

At some point on Tuesday, Moore told Sexton that they needed to make this happen. When Sexton asked him to be patient, Moore responded that he was “taking this plane to Cuba if Nick Saban isn’t on it.”

Saban’s wife gives Moore an opportunity

It was Terry Saban who ultimately invited Moore to the house. They had lunch and hit it off, but Nick was at a year-end meeting with his players. Terry invited Moore back for dinner. When Saban called to tell her he was staying with the Dolphins, she insisted that he at least meet with Moore, and Saban finally agreed.

Moore closes the deal

That night, Moore finally convinced Nick Saban to come to Alabama. According to Terry, as quoted by Saturday Down South, Moore said all of the right things to Saban, the things that resonated with him the most:

“It was Mal Moore’s soft approach, fatherly advice, sweet Southern charm … ‘I’m here for you … come back home  … back to where you belong … you are a college coach … we need each other …’ His siren songs were in my ears and I made sure Nick heard them. The three of us stood in our living room in tears, acknowledging that our hearts were still in college and that there was not a number that Wayne [Huizenga, owner of the Dolphins] could throw out to us that would make us reconsider what was the best thing for our family, not double, not triple. It was never about that.”

Day 38 – Moore brings the big fish home

Huizenga made one last pass at Saban, but ultimately gave Saban his blessing to leave. Saban informed his staff.

As the news of Saban’s departure spread, rumors about his arrival at Alabama boiled over.

Saban’s family piled into a Mercedes with their luggage and Mal Moore and headed north. Moore got Chuck on the phone to tell him the news. “We got him!”

Lessons on how to catch a white whale

Hard times lead to better efforts

It’s difficult to remember, but Alabama was absolutely reeling back in 2006, much like Tennessee is now. They’d tried the regular playbook for coaching hires multiple times, and it hadn’t worked. It was largely because they were desperate for success after so long without it that they went all in on their top target.

Planning to fail

Hearing that a school is talking to non-top target coaches doesn’t mean that they aren’t also still pursuing their top targets. It’s prudent to have a Plan B, and the above story suggests that there is more secrecy associated with top targets. Fans may hear more about Plan Bs than top targets.

Impatience can be a huge mistake

I don’t know how long Moore waited for that phone call from Sexton, but he should have waited longer. That has to be a pressure cooker of a situation, though, not knowing whether to take the bird in the hand right now or risk everything for Door No. 2. So, yes, you don’t want to miss an opportunity when it comes your way, but you also don’t want to settle too early while you’re still in pursuit of what you really want. Patience is still a virtue. It’s just that it also goes hand-in-hand with wisdom.

Fate

If Rodriguez hadn’t changed his mind for whatever reason, he’d have been the Alabama coach. Who knows what historical dominoes might have fallen instead had that actually happened. Some other school may have ended up with Saban or he may have ended up finding fulfillment in the NFL with Miami or some other team.

Sometimes the stars align and enable your efforts to succeed rather than fail.

The money isn’t solely up to the athletic director

Moore would likely not have landed Saban without paying him what they did. But it was a ton of money at the time, and his first job was to get the key decision-makers on board with spending so much. I would love to know the details of those conversations, and they would be fascinating. The athletic department had just struck out on three coaching hires in a row, and now they wanted how much? Credit Moore for getting that done and the decision-makers for agreeing.

Don’t take “No” for an answer

This is probably the biggest lesson from the entire story. Moore didn’t even get to talk to Saban directly until very near the end of the process. At best, he had mere hints that Saban might potentially be interested, and on the other side of the ledger, he had a very public proclamation from the man himself that it was not going to happen. But Moore was undeterred, and he remained so until he got into Saban’s living room and got Saban to say yes.

Never, never ever, underestimate the influence of the gate-keepers

Nick Saban said yes, and Mal Moore worked his tail off and didn’t give up, but it sounds to me like Terry Saban is the one who made it happen. At the very least, she is an absolutely crucial component to the story. She was the first one to listen to Moore himself. She was sold, and she “insisted” that Nick meet with him. That may be the main reason he did. It’s the same with any person who has the authority to grant access to a VIP. Sell them first, because they’ll likely be your best endorsement. They may make the deal for you.

An athletic director has to be a recruiter

Moore had experience recruiting players as a college coach. He knew how to sell and how to close the deal. He’d heard from Sexton that Saban wasn’t particularly happy in the NFL, and he likely heard from Terry at lunch that Saban missed college. And that was his pitch when he finally got some face time with Saban. According to Terry, it was that message that closed the deal.

Honestly, this is what concerns me the most about Tennessee going after Gruden right now. As far as I can tell, there’s nothing in John Currie’s background that would make you think he has experience at recruiting blue chips to programs. Hopefully, he recognizes this and delegates this most-important function to someone who does, someone like Phillip Fulmer. Or someone who can accomplish the same thing based on other factors, such as Peyton Manning or some other VFL.

The blue print

Getting a blue chip coach for your football program isn’t like posting the job on Indeed.com and waiting for the applications to pour in. White whales don’t apply for jobs. They are hunted, recruited for the position.

Recruiting is, at its base, sales. It helps to have a good product to sell, of course, but being good at sales also requires grit, determination, perseverance, luck, and not taking no for an answer. If you can’t reach the target, sell the gatekeeper (really, you should sell them regardless). And when you get in front of the guy, know what is important to him so that you can determine if it is indeed a good fit, and if it is, emphasize the right things in your pitch.

You may not land him, and it may not work out even if you do land him.

But if Tennessee can finally get its white whale, that scene at the Alabama airport the first week of January, 2006 will be dwarfed by what would transpire at McGhee-Tyson.

 

From a fan perspective, it does indeed feel good to look forward. There hasn’t been real doubt the Vols would have a new coach since the end of the Kentucky game three weeks ago, and I do think John Currie made the decision he felt was best for the program in waiting to fire Butch Jones. But there is freedom in both being able to look forward officially, and staying in the present with this team the last two weeks of the season. The Vols are heavy underdogs against LSU, but change at the top helps one be invested in not just player development but the actual outcome these last two weeks.

Here’s everything we’ve done in the first 48 hours of this search:

• A 100-minute podcast on Gruden, Mullen, Frost, Norvell, and Taggart (and why can’t Les Miles make a hot board?).
• A Taxonomy of College Football Coaches: Gurus, Champions, Contenders, and Up-and-Comers
• Which coaches get the most out of their teams: an advanced statistical analysis of Butch Jones, Dan Mullen, and Scott Frost
• Coaching Profiles for 22 candidates, sortable by the Taxonomy

One way we’ve found interesting to take the temperature of the fanbase and power rank this search:  which of those 22 coaching profiles are generating the most traffic?

1. Jon Gruden. Obviously. The white whale remains at large, and reports of him contacting former UT players to fill out his staff will do nothing to slow the frenzy. Gruden is the quickest way to get a percentage of the fanbase to pretend they really loved Randy Sanders all along. He’s an Assistant Coach Al Wilson short of an idiot optimist coaching staff.
2. Scott Frost. Yeah baby. Check out the podcast above to hear Brad and I compete to see who loves Frost more. It’s clearly an opinion held by more than just us; as discussed in the advanced statistical analysis post, Frost has Central Florida fifth nationally in S&P+. This is far more than the mid-major flavor of the month, and Frost isn’t just the most popular name on our site beyond Gruden. He might legitimately be the first choice of Tennessee and a number of others, and I would argue he should be.
3. Greg Schiano. Ohio State’s defensive coordinator went 3-20 the first two years at Rutgers, then 65-47 after that before heading to the NFL for two years. His name hasn’t been the first one or two out of anyone’s mouth in this search, but he’s a bigger name than many of those seemingly ahead of him in the pecking order and would check a lot of boxes between Rutgers and Ohio State. Would he be a good fit in Knoxville?
4. Dan Mullen. If Gruden is the clubhouse leader in dreams and Frost among up-and-comers, it seems to me Mullen is an early leader if we ask who is most likely to actually be coming to the podium in a few weeks. We covered Mullen’s strengths in the advanced statistical analysis post; I’m a big fan of his and think he would be an excellent fit here.
5. Gary Patterson. Don’t think anyone would be disappointed here. Patterson floated his involvement in Tennessee’s 2008 search last week. He’s been at TCU since 2000 with six Top 10 finishes since 2005, by far the most proven winner in college football on this list. If he did finally make a move from Fort Worth, I’m sure Tennessee fans would be thrilled to have him. If he truly is a realistic option, where would he rank on your list?

These are the names generating the most interest on our site. How do these and others stack up for you?

How do you judge a football team?

Wins and losses are the best way to rank them, but there has to be more involved in the best way to rate them. Games are made up of more than 100 plays; the best rating systems take every one of those snaps into account, not just the final score they produced.

This is one reason we use Bill Connelly’s S&P+ system (along with KenPom for basketball) a lot on this site. We spent the better part of a decade at SB Nation, where his Football Study Hall continues to provide a wealth of statistical knowledge.

A full explanation of S&P+ is available here; essentially it uses five factors to determine a team’s strength:

• Efficiency (measured by success rate: gaining 50% of the needed yardage on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third/fourth down)
• Explosiveness (measured by points-per-play of successful plays)
• Finishing Drives (measured by points per trip inside the 40 yard line)
• Field Position
• Turnover Margin

S&P+ should not be used to rank teams because it doesn’t care about outcomes. Right now, Ohio State is number one in its ratings. The system doesn’t dock the Buckeyes for having two losses; its only concern is the data from every snap. And play-for-play, it still views Ohio State as the best team in the country. This same system rated the 1993 Vols as the best of Tennessee’s decade of dominance; they tied Alabama and lost by seven in Gainesville, but had a school-record offense en route to winning nine games by an average of 37 points. The 1998 Vols, among others, were more successful. But the 1993 Vols were better play-for-play.

In coaching searches, we tend to focus on just the wins and losses. This is a good starting point, and even a good ending point when circling back around. But a good search is more thorough than simply one’s record. How well your team played (or didn’t play) en route to that record can separate a great prospect from a good one.

For example:

Butch Jones in S&P+

Five years ago, there wasn’t enough time between Charlie Strong’s no and Butch Jones’ yes for fans to form more than an off-the-cuff opinion of Cincinnati’s coach. But one of the initial positive reactions after his hire was, “He knows how to win close games.” And that was true. Moving on from Derek Dooley, the ability to win not just close but meaningful games was important. Butch Jones beat Virginia Tech 27-24 in 2012 and beat Louisville 25-16 in 2011. And Jones has won his share of close, meaningful games at Tennessee.

But looking a little closer, the number of close games Jones was playing should have stood out. In 2011, six of Cincinnati’s last eight games were decided by nine points or less. At Central Michigan, Jones and the Chippewas were in nine one possession games in 2008. Kudos to Jones for winning enough of them to get Cincinnati to 10-3 in both 2011 and 2012. But, as we found out at Tennessee and Florida found out with Jim McElwain, winning a bunch of close games is not the best indicator of one’s coaching ability. In S&P+, Derek Dooley’s 2012 Vols rated higher than Butch Jones’ 2012 Bearcats.

Using S&P+’s percentile performance for each game (data from Tennessee’s advanced statistical profiles at Football Study Hall and SB Nation’s Tennessee season previews), what were Butch Jones’ best performances at Tennessee?

• 2014 wins over Utah State, Kentucky, and Iowa all scored in the 99th percentile. The Vols won those three games by a combined 82 points, essentially representing the best Tennessee could play against those opponents relative to expectation.
• Bowl victories against Northwestern (96%) and Nebraska (94%) also stand out. Last year’s Music City Bowl is a good example of what S&P+ reveals: though the Vols won by only two touchdowns, they dominated statistically. Tennessee averaged 6.9 yards per play while giving up just 4.5 yards per play.
• In bigger games, Jones’ Vols had an 80+ percentile performance rating in the 2015 win over Georgia, the Battle at Bristol, and the 2016 win over Florida. They also showed up well in the 2014 loss at Georgia (another way S&P+ is useful: showing how well you actually played in a loss).

S&P+ also includes a win expectancy statistic:  using those five factor stats in a given game, how often should you expect to win that game? Georgia in ’15 and Florida in ’16 both featured amazing comebacks, but statistically the Vols were superior in the end. The Vols had a 72% win expectancy against Georgia and 81% against Florida; Tennessee wasn’t lucky to finish those comebacks, they were the better team over the course of those sixty minutes.

But win expectancy cuts the other way against Butch Jones a lot, especially this year. The Vols got the win against Georgia Tech despite a 24% win expectancy in S&P+; given those five factor stats, Georgia Tech wins that game 76% of the time. You need wins like this here and there; good teams tend to also be fortunate. But win expectancy shows the rest of Tennessee’s close games this year weren’t really that close:  it gave the Vols an 18% chance to win at Florida, 23% against South Carolina, and 33% against Kentucky. Even though all three of those games (plus Georgia Tech) came down to the final play, the Vols shouldn’t be considered unlucky to have lost them because statistically, they weren’t that close at all.

Walk it back to 2016, and you’ll find something similar. It’s not surprising to see a win expectancy below 50% against Georgia when you won on a hail mary. But close games with Texas A&M (22%) and South Carolina (19%) really weren’t that close on a play-for-play basis. Outcomes like these repeatedly gave Butch Jones a “one play away” narrative. But when you start taking every play into account, the Vols weren’t nearly as close, and usually ended up with the outcome they deserved.

The lesson:  look beyond wins and losses, and look out if you find a bunch of close wins. Hire a coach who does a better job winning every single snap.

Two of Tennessee’s top targets do a good job of this:

The Long-Term:  Dan Mullen

Here’s the Mississippi State advanced statistical profile. From 2014-2017, Butch Jones went 29-20 at Tennessee. Over the same span, Dan Mullen is 32-16 at Mississippi State. In those four years Jones has an average S&P+ percentile performance rating of 61.9% (which does not include data from the loss at Missouri). Mullen’s S&P+ percentile performance average is 69.2% (which does not include data from the loss to Alabama). Using this metric, the Vols were actually better play-for-play relative to expectation in 2014 (69%) and 2015 (70.3%) than 2016 (65.9%).

With percentile performance, the top team isn’t at 99% every week. No one is that perfect. Right now Alabama is at an 87.2% average for the season (90+% in every game but Florida State (80%), Texas A&M (68%), and LSU (68%); Mississippi State will join that list). But Dan Mullen has done a good job getting more from his teams on every play, and this has been true over a number of years.

At Mississippi State, there have been times the Bulldogs have simply been over-matched. We saw that with Auburn and Georgia this year (win expectancy: 0%). And yes, they weren’t sharp against UMass (58% percentile performance with 65% win expectancy). But in every other win this season, their win expectancy is either 99 or 100%. Last season they struggled in going 6-7, losing a game to South Alabama they should have won and beating Miami (OH) in a bowl game they should have lost.

2015 is a good example of the Mulllen resume: four losses to the four most talented teams on their schedule (LSU, Texas A&M, Alabama, Ole Miss). But at a decided talent disadvantage, the Bulldogs played well relative to expectation, including a 76% percentile performance in a two point loss to LSU. And in eight of their nine wins, they performed at 80+%.

In 2014, the year Mullen took them to number one, the Bulldogs took full advantage in their 9-0 start: other than a 65% percentile performance in a 14 point win over Kentucky, MSU scored between 82-98% every Saturday. They still were above 50% at 61% in the loss to Alabama, then hit 99% in beating Vanderbilt the next week. They fell off in the Egg Bowl and the Orange Bowl, but still, the Bulldogs earned every bit of the success they found in 2014.

All of this to say:  Dan Mullen’s teams have consistently been better play-for-play than what Butch Jones has done at Tennessee or any point in his career. Other than last year’s loss to South Alabama, when they get beat it’s largely because the other team is better. But when they win – and Mullen has won a lot for Starkville – those wins are earned on every snap. The Bulldogs haven’t been lucky. They’ve simply been good relative to expectation. Ask Vegas:  in nine years Mullen has only lost as a favorite seven times, three of those as a favorite of three points or less.

In the current full S&P+ ratings, Mississippi State is 18th nationally and the highest-rated 7-3 team in the nation. They’ve put a better product on the field every snap than Washington State (21st), Virginia Tech (24th), Memphis (30th), West Virginia (33rd), and Michigan State (39th), among others. They have the same record as Kentucky, but the Wildcats are 76th in S&P+. This system knows.

In 2015 the Bulldogs finished 13th in S&P+, the strongest 9-4 team in the nation (the Vols were second at 20th overall). In 2014 they finished ninth overall. His teams tend not to get rewarded in the final AP poll because they play in the SEC West with a handful of losses to teams significantly more talented than them. But even in those games, MSU’s performance has often been noteworthy. And in the games they do win, they have done a much better job taking advantage on every snap than what we’ve seen in Knoxville the last five years.

This is the whole question with Mullen:  will Tennessee make the difference? Can you make up the talent gap in Knoxville to compete not so much with Alabama right now, but Florida and Georgia? Does Mullen believe moving from Starkville to Knoxville significantly raises the ceiling? What does getting the most out of a Tennessee team look like?

If he believes Tennessee will make the difference, I believe he can make the difference for Tennessee.

The Short-Term: Scott Frost

Small sample size, but if you want to see what taking full advantage on every snap looks like, it’s Central Florida this year.

This guy isn’t the mid-major flavor of the month. His team is 8-0 with an average percentile performance of 88% (better than Bama). Their win expectancy has been 93-100% every week. They beat Mike Norvell and Memphis 40-13. Against Chad Morris and SMU the score was only 31-24, but they dominated statistically and still had a 78% percentile performance, and that’s their worst of the season.

It’s only eight games on top of the 13 last year where he moved Central Florida from 0-12 to bowl eligibility. But Scott Frost does not mess around.

They won at Navy 31-21 earlier this year; the Midshipmen are pesky and that was a solid road win. In the postgame, Frost was asked if he enjoyed seeing how his team reacted in a tight game:

“Heck no. I lost a year off my life tonight,” Frost said Saturday after the Knights’ 31-21 victory over Navy. “You need close games because you need to see how your kids experience those situations, but they’re not fun. It was stressful.”

This is a game they won by 10, on the road.

First of all, a coach who says, “Heck no,” will do great at Tennessee. Second of all, this quote is a great example of why Frost gets it, and why any team would be fortunate to get Frost:  every snap matters. You coach to get the most out of all of them. Butch Jones coached to get enough to give his team a chance to win at the end; sometimes they did, sometimes they didn’t. The best coaches don’t leave it up to the last play because they start trying to beat you on the first play and don’t stop until the game is over.

Wins and losses will tell you how to rank them. But if you’re looking for how to rate them – and if you’re looking for effectiveness play-for-play – S&P+ is the more revealing tool. Right now, the only teams doing that better than Scott Frost and Central Florida are Ohio State, Alabama, Washington, and undefeated Wisconsin. (Again, how did you perform relative to expectation? The Badgers haven’t had the opportunity to get a signature win yet, but play-for-play they’ve done exactly what a good team should have done against their schedule to date). S&P+ has Central Florida fifth in their ratings overall.

If you’re looking for a larger sample size, what Dan Mullen has done at Mississippi State also fits the bill. Mullen may also be a longer-term answer for Tennessee, if Frost has dreams of the NFL. Teams looking for new coaches often make pendulum swing hires. The most important way to do that in moving on from Butch Jones is to look at more than just wins, losses, and especially close games. Who’s getting the most out of his team every play, every week, relative to expectation? Dan Mullen or Scott Frost would be a win in that department, and either would be a win for Tennessee.