Tennessee vs Memphis Preview: Rivalry RSVP

Sports are a regular reminder of the seasonal nature all things possess. Yet within them, there’s something that feels so constant. We’ve played Alabama every October since 1928. And if that number looks funny to you too, it’s because we’re coming up on the 100th consecutive such occasion, if you don’t count the minor inconvenience of World War II. We play Florida in September unless there’s a pandemic or a national tragedy. We’ve faced Kentucky in basketball every year since 1954. These are the games you want to win the most.

But none of our rivalries land so many punches on so few thrown, fists balled up or otherwise, than this one. Tennessee and Memphis have met a grand total of 27 times. Saturday will make 28. And we’re not sure when we’ll see 29.

For that, above all…we have to win this game.

We faced these stakes eight seasons ago, the last of eight in a row (plus one in Maui) featuring constant rhetoric from John Calipari and Josh Pastner. That set was tied 4-4 when the Tigers came to Knoxville to face Cuonzo Martin’s second team, jumped to a 21-point lead, and held on to win 85-80. (Remember the all-orange unis? I still like the idea.)

The last departure lasted six years, resolved with a three-game set starting in 2019. The Vols won that one 102-92, then we played its polar opposite in 2020, a 51-47 Memphis victory. Turns out no matter how much you want to win, it’s hard to do so shooting 4-of-26 from the arc.

And now this one in Nashville, which was calling to mind another game in this series.

Eleven seasons ago – Bruce Pearl’s last – a talented Tennessee team raced to a 7-0 start. Then they lost three straight to Oakland, Charlotte, and USC. They beat Belmont by one and Tennessee-Martin by six. And then they lost to College of Charleston by 13.

Meanwhile, Memphis was 11-2, their only losses to Kansas and Georgetown. The Tigers were ranked 21st, the Vols reeling and preparing to sit Pearl for his mandated SEC suspension.

And Tennessee’s talent won 104-84, a game the Vols led at one point by 36.

That was the polar opposite of this one, or so we thought. Memphis, with loads of talent, started the season 5-0. Then they were hammered by Iowa State. Then they lost to Georgia (KenPom #161), Ole Miss (#90), and Murray State (#89). Along the way, Penny Hardaway did an interview with Seth Davis at The Athletic which continues to break my brain. “We’ve got so much negativity in our locker room,” is merely the headline; I highly recommend the rest.

As a Tennessee fan, Memphis was in such a spiral it was concerning, because I worried playing us might be one of the few things left to motivate them. Turns out, playing #6 Alabama will do it too.

Memphis got right on Tuesday night with a 92-78 win at the Bass Pro FedEx. Some of their consistent weaknesses remained, like committing 17 turnovers and allowing 14 offensive rebounds. Some of their consistent strengths did as well: Bama turned it over 20 times, and Memphis crashed with 13 offensive rebounds and 25 free throw attempts.

The biggest difference came on the other end of that equation: Alabama only got to the line a dozen times. The Tiger defense is still 306th nationally in free throw rate allowed, but they kept the Tide at bay for sure.

Tennessee, of course, shoots free throws at a lesser rate than almost any team in college basketball; Memphis isn’t the team to change that against. And they’ve always been long and potentially problematic to score on: lineups putting freshmen Emoni Bates and Jalen Duren on the floor together give them four players at 6’7″ or taller.

But the Vols, still rocking the nation’s best defense in KenPom, will look to feast on the Memphis offense. Iowa State and Ole Miss both forced turnovers on more than 25% of Tiger possessions. That’s the number the Vols average on the year.

In rivalry land, we put more emphasis on the mental than ever. Is Memphis fixed? Do they think they are? Are there any extra feelings left to be felt on Tennessee’s roster from the 2019 comments and the 2020 loss? And what of Kennedy Chandler, originally from Memphis, Tennessee?

But if we’re looking for steadiness, Rick Barnes is a good place to start. In rivalry games, he’s done better than anyone in my lifetime: 8-6 against Kentucky, 7-2 against Florida, 10-3 against Vanderbilt. We want this win, desperately, to close this chapter of the rivalry the right way. Barnes has earned our trust to carry the fight.

Saturday, high noon, Bridgestone Arena on ESPN2.

Go Vols.

Vols at the 1/4 Mark: Good News! Bad News?

So Tuesday, we were doing job interviews at church. I ended up missing all of the Texas Tech game, walking in the door just as the game went final. It became apparent very quickly that this was not something to lament, given the way all four teams in the building that night looked to set offensive basketball back a few decades.

This becomes the conversation on Tennessee, now a quarter of the way through the regular season. It’s Tennessee who has the nation’s best defense via KenPom, somehow still generating blocked shots and turnovers at an extraordinary rate without the guys who did a ton of that work last year.

The first takeaway from watching this team early on was the absence of Yves Pons on the defensive end. But just because it looks different doesn’t mean it isn’t working: Tennessee is 10th nationally in block percentage, sending back 16.8% of the shots they face. Josiah-Jordan James has been stellar at this, as he is everywhere defensively, while John Fulkerson has turned in the best basketball of his career in this department so far. And Olivier Nkamhoua has taken a leap on both ends of the floor, though not enough to finish the fight against Texas Tech.

Meanwhile, despite losing Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson, the Vols are relentless in forcing turnovers. Again, Josiah leads the way here, currently 11th nationally in steal percentage. But Tennessee’s three point guards have been huge factors in this department as well.

The result is a defense that, so far, does everything well. Even their play against Villanova was noteworthy, and the only place we’ll see a better offense than theirs is the NCAA Tournament. Defense travels, and if it shows up consistently (like in 2018) instead of sporadically (like in 2021), the Vols will be players.

Offensively, there’s Kennedy Chandler, and there are a lot of threes that can fall. This team needs a Plan C, whether that’s playing back through John Fulkerson or something else developing.

One thing that is not, at all, developing: Tennessee getting to the free throw line. This is not the threes-and-frees offense. It’s threes, and hope they finish at the rim.

The Vols at the stripe this year:

  • Tennessee Martin: 7-of-13
  • ETSU: 16-of-18
  • Villanova: 10-of-13
  • UNC: 4-of-5 (lol)
  • Tennessee Tech: 10-of-10
  • Presbyterian: 6-of-9
  • Colorado: 5-of-9
  • Texas Tech: 8-of-16

In four games against major conference opponents, the Vols are 27-of-43. The percentage (62.7%) isn’t great, but it was only costly against the Red Raiders. It’s the sheer lack of attempts that stands way, way out: the Vols are 350th of 358 in college basketball in free throw attempt percentage.

As new as the three-point barrage is, so too is this. Right now 42.3% of Tennessee’s attempts are from behind the arc. The previous high under Barnes: 36.25% in his first year (Kevin Punter, Detrick Mostella, Devon Baulkman). But the current Vols are getting to the line on just 17.5% of their attempts. The previous low in this department is Tennessee’s best offense from 2019, that blistered the nets and didn’t turn it over. But they also got to the line on 33.3% of their attempts.

No surprise, here’s where playing through Fulkerson would improve things. I’m curious to see if Kennedy Chandler can get more of a whistle going forward; we know he’s going to get past guys. If a defense is going to put up little resistance like UNC, so be it. But especially when we get to the rigors of SEC play, Tennessee’s offense is going to need more help via the charity stripe.

This week the Vols roll out the carpet for the Carolinas, with UNC Greensboro tomorrow and USC Upstate on Tuesday. That ends the tune-ups: it’s Memphis in Nashville next Saturday, then undefeated Arizona in Knoxville on December 22, followed by the SEC opener in Tuscaloosa on December 29. If Tennessee continues to split these heavy hitters as they’ve done with Villanova/UNC and Colorado/Texas Tech, they’ll keep themselves in position for a top four seed in the NCAA Tournament. Last year we saw Tennessee’s best basketball in December. This year, more consistency would be a good start. There’s no room to grow in the rankings on defense. But there’s room for improvement, and for a Plan C, on the offensive end. Can this team find more of a home at the free throw line? That can make a big difference when you know you’re going to have an elite defense and elite point guard out there every night.

Go Vols.

Vols Redeem the Weekend in Style

Everybody gets to dream big in November, but Villanova didn’t let us get much farther than the first possession yesterday. A 40-minute loss to a Top 5 team will certainly put a dent in your championship aspirations. We had to hope the Vols could figure it out along the way, and play their way back to the kind of ceiling we hoped we had coming into the weekend.

North Carolina is not a Top 5 team, but they were Top 20. And they are North Carolina, legions of fans generally and breaker of Tennessee hearts in December of 2016, 2017, and March of 2000 specifically.

So it turns out no matter how poorly you play against #5 Villanova, you can leave feeling good about yourself if you do something similar to the Tar Heels.

Tennessee was without Josiah Jordan-James. They led by seven after a fast-paced first half, still unable to get the three ball going while Carolina – especially Brady Manek off the bench – had theirs. In the second half, the Vols put a lot of a three point guard lineup on the floor: Kennedy Chandler, Santiago Vescovi, and Zakai Zeigler. And it worked. Like real well.

Chandler played 32 minutes, finishing with 14 points, 8 assists, and 2 turnovers. Vescovi played 31, finishing with 17 points, 3 assists, and 9 rebounds in a lineup where he’s basically playing the three. And Zeigler, off the bench, played 27 minutes and dropped 18 points on 7-of-10 shooting, plus 5 assists and z-e-r-o turnovers. The Vols shot five free throws. They scored 89 points.

Carolina’s defense was not Villanova’s, nor will it be the likes we’ll see shortly from Texas Tech and Memphis. But it was still Carolina, and the Vols feasted. John Fulkerson added 13 points, 5 boards, and 6 assists. Brandon Huntley-Hatfield had a nice run of 23 minutes. The Vols never really replaced Josiah’s role with something similar, and Victor Bailey ended up with just eight minutes. Instead, it was a three guard clinic with two bigs; when Josiah’s healthy, there’s some real versatility there in sliding him in at the four if the young kids continue to play this well.

And Vescovi is simply more physical and more consistent, on both ends of the floor, than what we’ve seen previously. He’s never been afraid to shoot (or of much of anything), but he gets in traffic and in passing lanes with much more authority so far this season. If there was any talk of Chandler taking his minutes, his play early on shows how valuable he can be when they’re on the floor together.

The same, apparently, goes for Zeigler. If you didn’t see it and just read the headline – “Zeigler leads Vols past North Carolina” – you might still be unsure who that even is. Tennessee signed seven players in this class, including two five-stars. Zeigler is the sixth-highest rated of the group. He committed to Tennessee the week of the Bowling Green game. The day after the South Alabama game, he torched Carolina’s defense.

There will be ups and downs with any freshman – Kennedy Chandler was 1-of-9 against Villanova – but the good news is not just the diversity, but the defense. The Vols were actually fairly solid defensively against Villanova, but lifeless on offense. Today, they allowed 10-of-23 from the arc against a hot-shooting Tar Heel squad, plus 18-of-22 at the line…and won by 17, holding Carolina to just 72 points. That comes by way of 13 turnovers, and holding UNC to just five offensive rebounds. That’ll travel.

The Vols get Tennessee Tech and Presbyterian around Thanksgiving weekend, then travel themselves to Colorado for the return match on Saturday, December 4. We’ve still got a ways to go to be on Villanova’s level. But there’s no step forward more satisfying than the one they took today.

Go Vols.

Tennessee vs Villanova Preview: First One’s The Hardest

The scheduling gods were kind: tomorrow you’ve got football at 7:30 PM, free and clear to watch #17 Tennessee battle #5 Villanova at the Mohegan Sun at 1:00 PM. Twenty-four hours later, it’s a shot at revenge one way or another: #6 Purdue or #18 North Carolina.

These could end up being the best teams Tennessee plays in the regular season. Nova leads the way there in the current AP poll, Purdue in the current KenPom at #4. The Vols play a host of teams just outside the KenPom Top 10 later: #12 Texas Tech, #13 Memphis, #14 Texas, plus Kentucky at #15, Florida at #19, and Alabama at #20. But when it’s all said and done, you may not get a better one-two punch than Villanova and Purdue, if that’s how it ends up going this weekend.

Tennessee’s last Top 10 win was at #6 Kentucky two years ago. The 2019 squad famously got three Top 5 wins: #1 Gonzaga, and a pair of wins over #4 Kentucky. Rick Barnes also got #4 Kentucky in year two in Knoxville, giving him four Top 5 wins in his tenure. A win tomorrow would bring him one step closer to Bruce Pearl’s seven Top 5 wins: #2 Florida in 2006, #5 Florida in 2007, #1 Memphis in 2008, #1 Kansas in 2010, #2 Kentucky in 2010, #5 Ohio State in 2010, and #3 Pittsburgh in 2011.

How comfortable will the Vols be in a shootout? Since emerging on the national stage four years ago, the Vols have played only eight games where both teams scored in the 80s in regulation, with five of them coming in 2019. Tennessee went 5-3 in those games, losing twice to Auburn plus the Sweet 16 against Purdue. But the Vols did punish Memphis and Arkansas in 2019 playing at 80 possessions.

It’s not the pace with Villanova, it’s the efficiency. The Wildcats are shooting 48.8% from the arc through the first three games, two blowouts and an overtime loss to UCLA. And it wasn’t really the offense that cost them against the Bruins: Nova shot 11-of-24 from the arc (45.8%), though only 38.6% from two. They only turned it over seven times.

But UCLA shot 46.9% from the field, 17-of-19 at the line, and was +14 on the glass. They got excellent production from their guards against Villanova’s defense, which currently checks in at 61st in KenPom. Their offense is third, so if the Vols are going to do it, it may have to be by keeping up on the offensive end.

Who will those guys be for Tennessee? Through two games, Tennessee’s leaders in shots are Santiago Vescovi and…Olivier Nkamhoua, which will come as a surprise if you didn’t catch any of the UT-Martin or ETSU games. Nkamhoua has played more minutes than anyone so far, perhaps in part due to John Fulkerson working his way in from the thumb injury. But Nkamhoua is 3-of-5 from the arc and leads the team in rebounds by a mile. This is, so far, not at all the same player you remember.

Two seasons ago, after the Vols beat Florida A&M on December 4 and Nkamhoua had 11 and 13, Rick Barnes said, “We need him, and he alone can change our team with the ability that he has if he will buy into it.” It was an eyebrow-raising comment at the time, with the 2020 Vols looking for production and soon to be without Lamonte Turner the rest of the way. His 23 minutes that day ended up being a season high; he played 21 against Wisconsin over Christmas break, then only saw more than 15 minutes two other times. Last year he only played more than 15 minutes once, and only played 19 total minutes in Tennessee’s last six games.

There’s a lot that Tennessee needs on the defensive end without Yves Pons, and if you haven’t watched us yet, you’ll notice that difference right away. But Nkamhoua is again raising eyebrows for the ways he might change what Tennessee can do on the offensive end, an unexpected bonus for a group we expected to go through Kennedy Chandler and John Fulkerson. The freshman point guard is right there, third on the team in shot attempts with 10 assists to 4 turnovers so far. Fulkerson is recovering, but two years ago Tennessee’s best basketball absolutely went through him.

These Vols are also launching 30+ threes per game, meaning there is so much newness in what we’ll witness this weekend. Will it be enough to keep up with Villanova, who’ll surely find their own success against a Tennessee defense still figuring out who’s going to protect the rim?

It’s early, but could end up being the biggest test of the regular season. 1:00 PM Saturday on, you guessed it, ESPN News.

Go Vols.

Tennessee Basketball Preview: KenPom Tiers & Two Questions

A shout out, first of all, to Josh Heupel and the football team. There was more than one scenario here where we would’ve wanted to start the basketball conversation much sooner. Instead, it’s really a perfect setup: a first glimpse is available while the football team is off tomorrow, if you want it, via an exhibition with Lenoir-Rhyne (3:00 PM, SEC Network+). The real action doesn’t begin until Tuesday, November 9 vs UT-Martin. And the real action waits until the football Vols are through with Kentucky and Georgia, then is there for you on Saturday, November 20 when Tennessee faces Villanova in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off Tournament. (That game is at 1:00 PM, so you want that South Alabama kickoff to find its way to like 4:00).

Same as football with SP+, we find one of the best ways to put an upcoming season in context is with Ken Pomerory’s data. It’s no guarantee, and sometimes that’s a good thing. Preseason SP+ projections this season had us (rightfully) asking if Heupel’s first team could just be better than three of the last five seasons in the program’s basement. Instead, right now they’re playing at a level similar to 2009, 2012, and 2016, some of our most competitive football of the last 14 years.

But credit KenPom for nailing last year’s team, which was no small feat with Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer new to the mix. In preseason, they rated an even 20.00 (points better than the average team on a neutral floor in 100 possessions). After Baylor cut down the nets, their final rating was…19.95.

That put them in what we labeled the Dangerous Tier among recent Tennessee teams: they can beat anybody, but they’re not consistent enough to earn your full trust. That group is Tier C among UT’s last two decades.

Where does the 2022 team project at the start of the season?

  • Tier A – The Current Peak: 2019 (26.24 KenPom)
  • Tier B – The Fully Capable: 2014 (23.69), 2018 (22.27), 2008 (22.17), 2022 (21.60 preseason)
  • Tier C – The Dangerous: 2021 (19.95), 2006 (19.44), 2010 (18.50), 2007 (18.29)
  • Tier D – The Unnecessary Defense of Bruce Pearl: 2009 (16.48)
  • Tier E – The Bubble (but probably the NIT)
  • Tier F – That’s okay, we used to be a football school (Buzz Peterson’s last two years, Donnie Tyndall, Rick Barnes’ first year)

It might feel a little strange to put them in the tier above the group we labeled as less consistent. Cuonzo Martin’s final team is in Tier B, and there are hundreds of thousands of words spilled in the archives at Rocky Top Talk on all that. But at the end of the season, that group was playing at an extremely high level, and was a bang-bang call away from beating a #2 seed to advance to the Elite Eight.

The challenge with consistency will again be so many new faces on this team. Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer are out (Keon is yet to appear for the Clippers; Springer got two minutes of mop up duty in one game for the Sixers). So too is Yves Pons, yet to appear for the Grizzlies. I think his absence will be most noticeable, simply because there’s no one that can erase what he erased for Tennessee’s defense. The Vols also said farewell to Davonte Gaines and Drew Pember via the transfer portal; Gaines is with Kim English at George Mason, Pember at UNC Asheville.

Meanwhile, in is – gasp! – a true point guard, five-star Kennedy Chandler. He’s the highest-rated recruit of an impressive Rick Barnes era, trailing only Tobias Harris and Scotty Hopson on 247’s all-time list. In the CBS list of the 100 best players for the 2022 season, he came in 20th – not in the SEC or among freshmen, but overall.

In is five-star Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, a 6’9″ forward who we’ll be watching closely to see how the Vols utilize him in their lineups. In is Auburn transfer Justin Powell, who hit 44.3% from the arc as a freshman last year before suffering a concussion on January 2 that cost him the rest of the season.

And in is the rest of this freshman class, that by itself would’ve been an impressive haul for Tennessee at any point before the last three years: Jonas Aidoo, Jahmai Mashack, Quentin Diboundje, Zakai Zeigler, and Handje Tamba. It all added up to the #4 recruiting class in the nation.

What will it add up to for this Tennessee team?

We know Josiah Jordan-James, Santiago Vescovi, and Victor Bailey. And we really know John Fulkerson (who will miss tomorrow with a broken thumb but should be available for the opener). If he can return to his 2020 All-SEC form, he’ll be in for quite the finale.

There’s also much we haven’t learned yet about Uros Plavsic, and especially Olivier Nkamhoua, who’s getting a lot of preseason chatter. After that group of four upperclassmen (and, we assume, Kennedy Chandler), minutes are available, and valuable. The always excellent Will Warren has an in-depth preview with lineup projections.

The real answers will have to wait until we see all this newness for our own eyes. But the two biggest questions, as they relate to the difference between this year and last year, are this:

What does the defense look like without Yves Pons (or Kyle Alexander) to take away so many shots? Maybe BHH becomes that guy in a hurry, or Nkamhoua has turned into him. But the Vols have been in the Top 15 nationally in shot-blocking percentage the last three seasons. Pons was the individual player I watched the most on defense out of anyone who’s ever played here. Nothing was totally safe. It’s a huge part of what made this team such a force defensively on so many nights last year. With Barnes, you expect defense to lead the way. So what does that leading look like this season?

And who knocks down threes? The last two seasons, the answer has really been no one reliably: 31.3% from the arc in 2020, 33.1% last season. Jaden Springer shot 43.5% but only took 1.84 per game. Josiah was a woeful 30.8%. Yves Pons was 27.4%. The Vols brought in Powell, but keep an eye on Vescovi as well, especially when he’s on the floor with Chandler. He quietly hit 37.3% last season. If Tennessee can get answers here the way they did in 2018 and 2019 – not even spectacular, just solid – you expect a Barnes defense to more than do its job on the other end.

Last year I think we were more excited about the individual talents coming in than anything else; fair enough, we’re still inexperienced at having multiple five stars and what it does and doesn’t mean in March. This year we’ve got two more five stars, one of them rated even higher…but the conversation on Chandler feels less about his individual talent, and more about what it might do in service to this team. There are certainly questions of rotations and chemistry with so many new pieces. But there’s also an assumption that things will just be easier this time around than last year due to the virus.

The Vols are 13th overall (first in the SEC) in KenPom, 18th in the AP poll, and a five seed in ESPN’s bracketology. But there’s a quiet hope that this group might be able to play at a higher level with greater consistency than last year’s squad. We’ll need to see the defense against live fire to learn what they’ll do without Pons. But if the offense can just find a shooter or two – and Chandler should help create that – they’ll have an opportunity to put themselves in position to advance when it matters most.

Credit Heupel and the football team for having us hold off on this conversation until now. And credit Barnes and the basketball team for allowing us to believe big things are possible every year now.

Go Vols.

Will we win in time?

If you’ve been following along with us through the years, whether here or at Rocky Top Talk, you probably know that in the real world I’m a United Methodist pastor. And I’m really proud to share a book I wrote in that real world, which comes out today. Roots of Eden explores the first truths about God and human beings, told through the first three chapters of Genesis. I’d love for you to check it out here.

The journey of this book was paved, in part, by the reps of writing however many thousands of words in this space for the last 15 years. Whether this is your first time on our site or you’ve been with us forever, thanks so very much for reading.

The Vols, of course, do land a couple of mentions in the book. Here’s a companion piece to one of them.

Whenever someone tells me they’re worried about whether we’ll be good in time for their kids to love the Vols, I think about Steve Hamer.

It’s a real question, I’m sure. My own children – one now almost four, the other just past her first birthday – are still a bit too young for this game, though it’s one the adults in their world would barely recognize. My son’s first semi-internalized connection with success for Tennessee came via this baseball season, a stunning upset on the athletic department leaderboard when he was born. The day we brought him home from the hospital, Tennessee lost to Georgia 41-0. In his tiny lifetime, our basketball team has three wins at Rupp Arena, and our football team is 17-26 with an average margin of defeat of I’m-not-looking-that-up.

My dad, who is the first person responsible for me sitting at this keyboard punching letters about the Vols, took me to my first game when I was five. We weren’t great in 1986, and actually lost to Army that day. But the year before, I hear we did alright. Five years old for my son will be next fall. It’s strange, but for me suddenly the Orange & White Game next spring is a significant event again. There’s the sense that we have to get him there, get him started.

I’m not sure how much ground Josh Heupel can make up in a year, but there’s a part of introducing our kids to Tennessee football that feels like it should come with a warning: “This might sting a little, but it’s for your own good.”

And it’s not a new question in 2021 or 2022. Even as far back as 2006 – which seems silly now – those of us wanting to pass something significant on to the next generation have been looking for those moments that have a chance to become memories.

But no matter how many of them we do or don’t produce this fall, or into the next few years, Steve Hamer gives me comfort. Because those of us who grew up during the best of times for Tennessee football simultaneously experienced the worst of times for Tennessee basketball.

The Vols made the NCAA Tournament six out of seven years from 1977-1983.

And then Tennessee made one of the next 14 tournaments.

That one was no prize: a 16-point loss in the 7/10 game to West Virginia in 1989, the last one of Don DeVoe’s tenure.

I was seven years old when that happened. The next time Tennessee made the dance, I was 16.

I see a thought that goes around from time to time that you gravitate towards whatever team in your life was best when you were ten years old. It’s why my generation, especially those of us with the Vols/Braves combo, has had such a hard time with the last 13 years. That kind of math also starts putting an internal clock on Tennessee’s own success: “We’ve got x years to get this turned around, or I’ll lose my kids forever!”

Basketball was and is my favorite sport. I caught the tail end of Larry Bird’s career, but it was enough to keep me invested in the Celtics even when nothing good was walking through that door for a while after that.

But at Tennessee?

Wade Houston replaced Don DeVoe, and his son Allan got buckets. But the team struggled: 16-14 in his first year, 12-22 (3-15) his second. They improved to 19-15 (8-8) in year three, but lost four of their last six games and again missed the NCAA Tournament.

I was ten years old that season, and watched my friends start looking around. Not even because they were bad ten-year-old fans, whatever that means. But because in basketball’s most important moments, Tennessee was never there to look at.

Meanwhile, other teams were becoming mythical creatures. You already had to deal with Kentucky as your biggest rival, freshly off probation and riding Jamal Mashburn and “The Unforgettables” to the Elite Eight. They fell there to Duke in the greatest game that’s ever been played; those Blue Devils had a trio of college basketball icons in Christian Laettner, Bobby Hurley, and Grant Hill.

And then that Duke team made it to the finals and faced the greatest threat to any young basketball Vol’s heart: the Fab Five.

Back when culture was a little more monolithic, change could be tracked almost overnight. And in fifth grade at Alcoa Elementary School and any gym I found myself in, black socks and baggy shorts appeared almost instantly.

It just became commonplace to say things like, “I like Tennessee, and then in the tournament I cheer for __________________.” That sentence had a “but” in it at one time, I’m sure. But by the early 90s, it was just accepted that you’d gravitate towards someone in March, because Tennessee was never an option.

It happened to me too: I went toward UCLA because I loved their colors. Some of these decisions got made via the pages of the Eastbay catalog, flipping through to see whose shorts you could get in the mail. When Allan Houston was taken 11th in the 1993 NBA Draft – 11th! That’s really good! – you saw far, far more jerseys in the Knoxville adolescent demo for Chris Webber and, in what should’ve been basketball blasphemy, Penny Hardaway.

And when Houston graduated, the Vols went 5-22 (2-14) in 1994. We lost to Arkansas-Little Rock by 10 in Knoxville, then Western Carolina by seven. My parents gave up two of our four season tickets because I don’t think we went to a single game. My UCLA shorts did win a title the next year though.

Kevin O’Neill arrived; new coach, kids are playing hard, etc. But his first team hit a 1-9 stretch in the middle of SEC play to finish 11-16 (4-12). Kentucky beat us by 19 in Lexington and 20 in Knoxville, two of 11 consecutive wins in the series, eight of which came by at least 15 points.

You can hope, and you can dream, and then at some point you have to see it. But the “it” you have to see isn’t a national championship or even a tournament appearance.

The “it” just needs to be moving forward.

I think about this often for Josh Heupel, because I’ve lived so many days of thinking about it for Jeremy Pruitt and Butch Jones. Some of the most valuable Saturdays for a fanbase are those first steps forward. Neither of them were able to stick the landing in year one. But ask any Tennessee fan to name their favorite Saturdays of the last ten years, and once they get done talking about 2016? They’re going to mention those Smokey Grays against Georgia. And we didn’t even win.

Steve Hamer was the best player on some of the worst Tennessee basketball teams, including the 1994 squad that went 5-22. In his senior year, the Vols battled for .500.

You had to get there to make the NIT. And Tennessee ping-ponged around it all season. These weren’t NCAA Tournament dreams. These were forward progress dreams.

The Vols lost the last two games of the regular season to land at 13-13 (6-10), meaning they had to win one game in the SEC Tournament to qualify for the NIT. The Vols played Alabama in the late night game in New Orleans.

And Steve Hamer went for 31 points and 21 rebounds, the latter still an SEC Tournament record. And we won.

I love using “we” to describe Tennessee. Always have. I’ve done little for the university, other than perhaps contribute some language to their standards on academic probation. We pay for season tickets and I try to make sense of it on the keyboard. Any ownership of their success or failure is mythical.

But they’re my team. And that night remains one of my favorite memories: Tennessee, in basketball, winning when it mattered. Moving it forward.

It wasn’t a straight line, of course: O’Neill left for Northwestern a year later. Jerry Green would become his own special brand of roller coaster. But he got the Vols in the NCAA Tournament just two years after Steve Hamer’s night. And the year after that, we beat Kentucky in Knoxville on the last day of the regular season to win the SEC East, and enter the NCAA Tournament as a four seed.

And now kids were wearing our shorts.

You don’t have to get all the way there. You just need to believe you might be on the way to something good.

Just enough hope to bring you back, because what ultimately brings us back to sports isn’t winning anyway. It’s the thing itself, not how often it wins, that really does it for us in football. There’s less pageantry and fewer people in basketball, but the idea’s the same: that’s our team. We don’t pass on wins to our children; I don’t think they’ll make the connection to what they didn’t experience for themselves. But I think we can pass on the experience itself.

And some of those most memorable days can come in those first steps forward.

Roots of Eden is available now at Amazon.

Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast – Episode 177 – Tennessee basketball’s most satisfying seasons

In this happy sequel to Episode 176 (Tennessee basketball’s most unsatisfying seasons), Will, Chris, and Gavin re-live their memories of the most satisfying basketball seasons in recent Tennessee history.

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Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast – Episode 176 – Tennessee basketball’s least satisfying seasons

In this throwback to the old site, Will, Chris, and Gavin take turns re-living their memories of the most unsatisfying basketball seasons in recent Tennessee history.

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Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast on Apple Podcasts
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How far do one-and-dones advance in the NCAA Tournament?

From a recruiting rankings standpoint, Tennessee’s 2021 basketball team might be the most talented in program history. It’s the only Vol squad of the recruiting rankings era to feature three five-stars (Keon Johnson, Jaden Springer, and Josiah-Jordan James), and now two of them have departed for the NBA Draft as one-and-done players. And on the back end, the draft itself should validate that talent: Keon Johnson is routinely projected as a lottery pick, with Jaden Springer sprinkled throughout the first round. If that unfolds, it’ll be only the second time in school history the Vols had two players taken in the first round of the same draft, following Ernie & Bernie. And Bernard King (7th) is one of just three Vols to ever be drafted in the Top 10, along with Tom Boerwinkle (4th) and Dale Ellis (9th). There’s a lot of history to be made in a few months.

So when we take all that and try to figure out how this team lost as a five seed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament…you get the frustration. But when I started researching how far one-and-dones typically advance in the dance, it turns out the 2021 Vols are a more common tale than you might think.

The one-and-done rule has been in place for 15 seasons now, requiring high school seniors to play at least one year before becoming eligible for the draft. That first year in 2006 was a transitional time: Shawne Williams from Memphis was taken 17th overall, the only true freshman one-and-done of the draft. But the floodgates opened the following season: Greg Oden and Kevin Durant became the poster children for one-and-dones at the top of the NBA Draft, as eight of the first 21 players selected in the 2007 draft were college freshmen. And it’s gone about that way ever since.

Durant is sometimes used in protest against Rick Barnes: the 2007 Longhorns were 24-9 on Selection Sunday, earned a four seed, and were emphatically bounced in the second round by five-seed USC. “Couldn’t make the Final Four with Kevin Durant!”, etc.

Turns out, making the Final Four with one-and-dones is really hard to do, unless you’ve got a bunch of them.

In the last 15 tournaments played under the one-and-done rule, 60 teams made the Final Four. It’s important to note right away: 36 of those 60 Final Four teams had a player selected in the first round the same year (including projected first-round picks from Baylor and Gonzaga this year). That’s 60%. Talent is good!

But only 12 of those 60 Final Four teams had a one-and-done player selected in the first round. That’s only 20%. Only 10 of those 60 had a one-and-done player selected in the lottery, the top 14 picks. That’s 16.7%.

The idea that one-and-dones = tournament success built momentum early: Greg Oden’s 2007 Ohio State team, which we know plenty about, made the title game. Oden went on to be the first pick in the draft, with fellow one-and-dones Mike Conley (fourth) and Daequan Cook (21st) also going in the first round. The following year UCLA rode freshman Kevin Love (and sophomore Russell Westbrook) to the Final Four, while Derrick Rose was free throws away from winning a national title at Memphis. Oden’s NBA career didn’t work out, but the rest of this group – Conley, Love, Rose, plus Durant – has had tremendous NBA success.

Two years later, John Calipari walked through that door to Lexington and immediately brought the model to blue-blood Kentucky. John Wall and Demarcus Cousins fell in the Elite Eight, but went first and fifth in the draft. Brandon Knight went eighth as the Cats made the Final Four in 2011. And then in 2012, the breakthrough: Kentucky won the title with Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist going 1-2 in the NBA Draft as one-and-dones, plus Marquis Teague at 29th (and sophomore Terrence Jones at 18th – again, talent helps!).

Kentucky’s success got Duke in the one-and-done business. The Cats were back in the Final Four in 2014 with James Young and Julius Randle in the lottery. And then in 2015, you had superteams of freshmen: Kentucky’s Karl-Anthony Towns went first, with Trey Lyles (12th) and Devin Booker (13th) also in the lottery, along with sophomore Willie Cauley-Stein (sixth). Thanks to Gonzaga’s defeat in this year’s title game, this is still the best team of the KenPom era, though they lost to Wisconsin in the Final Four. And the Badgers were then vanquished by a Duke squad with three one-and-done first rounders: Jahlil Okafor (third), Justise Winslow (10th), and Tyus Jones (24th).

After the 2015 season, it seemed there was no turning back. But instead, the opposite has happened.

In the last five Final Fours, only Zach Collins (Gonzaga 2017, 10th pick) and, we assume, Jalen Suggs have been one-and-done lottery picks. Tony Bradley, a reserve on North Carolina’s 2017 title team, was taken 28th overall. Malachi Richardson from Syracuse went 22nd in 2016. So in the last five Final Fours, only 10% of participants have featured a one-and-done lottery pick, and only 20% a one-and-done first round pick.

Tennessee needs to make the Final Four before it can worry about winning it all. But when you look at the title teams over the last 15 tournaments, only those 2012 Kentucky and 2015 Duke squads featured one-and-done lottery picks…and again, they both had two of them, plus a third freshman taken later in the first round. If you’re going to go that route, sure, you can win it all with freshmen…but only Duke and Kentucky have been able to recruit at that level, and they’ve only got one title to show for it that way each.

Again: talent is good. Twelve of the last 15 national champions had a player drafted in the first round that same year, and two of the three that didn’t were 2006 Florida and 2016 Villanova, who repeated and won two-in-three years, respectively. Talent is good. But the idea that one-and-done talent should automatically lead to NCAA Tournament success is far more flawed than it was six years ago.

One-and-dones still transition straight to the lottery: in the 2018 and 2019 NBA Drafts, 17 of the 28 lottery picks were freshmen. But when you look at what those 17 freshmen did in the NCAA Tournament:

YearPlayerSchoolPickResult
2019Zion WilliamsonDuke1Elite Eight
2019RJ BarrettDuke3Elite Eight
2019Darius GarlandVanderbilt5n/a
2019Coby WhiteNorth Carolina7Sweet 16
2019Jaxson HayesTexas8n/a
2019Cam ReddishDuke10Elite Eight
2019Tyler HerroKentucky13Elite Eight
2019Romeo LandfordIndiana14n/a
2018Deandre AytonArizona1First Round
2018Marvin Bagley IIIDuke2Elite Eight
2018Jaren Jackson Jr.Michigan State4Second Round
2018Trae YoungOklahoma5First Round
2018Mo BambaTexas6First Round
2018Wendell Carter Jr.Duke7Elite Eight
2018Collin SextonAlabama8Second Round
2018Kevin KnoxKentucky9Sweet 16
2018Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderKentucky11Sweet 16

If you played for Duke and Kentucky, alongside multiple one-and-dones, you made an Elite Eight. If not, you didn’t. Almost half of these guys didn’t get out of the first weekend.

So yes, Tennessee should continue to recruit talented players. But, as Rick Barnes already knows, the idea that you can find breakthrough success on the shoulders of one-and-dones is a struggling one these days. The Vols still need first-round talent, no doubt. But they appear more likely to have tournament success when that talent is developed over multiple years, not recruited and soon-to-be gone.