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In Episode 184 of the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcas, Will and I:
We’ve got a podcast being uploaded shortly to discuss all things SEC Tournament and the bracket, and you can once again join us in the madness with our Gameday on Rocky Top 2022 bracket challenge! We’re again playing at CBS this year, it’s free to play, and who knows…you too might win a new car and tickets to the Final Four! Follow the link to sign up, and let us know if you have any questions in the comments.
Go Vols.
In KenPom, the distance between the second-best team in the country (Arizona) and the 12th-best team (Villanova) is 2.67 points. It’s an abnormal amount of parity, one that leaves little separation between the bottom of the #1 seed line and the #3 line. It’s why I’ve thought, for a while now, that where the Vols are seeded and sent matters less this year. We’ve got the wins to prove it.
We got another one today. It’s Tennessee’s third Top 5 win of the year, and the seventh of Rick Barnes’ tenure. The margins are thin, but in KenPom the team right behind Arizona at #3 is still Kentucky. That gives the Vols three wins over two of the best teams in the nation.
I don’t know where the Vols are going to play after tomorrow; specifically, can they pass Duke and/or Auburn to get first and second round games in Greenville, SC? I don’t know where the Vols are going to be seeded; specifically, are we still having conversations about them at #3? Could they still get to even #1?
Here’s what I do know: wherever they’re sent, wherever they’re seeded, I’m not sure they’re going to be asked to get a tougher win than the one they got today. At least not until we’d be talking about breaking new ground as a program. If Gonzaga is so much better than everyone else, so be it: the Vols won’t see them until the Elite Eight at the earliest.
The SEC Tournament is in Nashville the next three years. That would’ve been fun today, with Kentucky and Tennessee going at it on the weekend for the third time in the last four tournaments. In Tampa, there was more blue, to their credit. To Tennessee’s credit, every time they raised their voices, I’d look up and realize we were still up at least two possessions, and usually more.
Kentucky cut it to six with 16:28 to play. The Vols scored on their next three possessions, including buckets from Uros Plavsic and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield. The Vols were up 14 with 8:50 to go, but Kentucky cut it to eight in 41 seconds. Enter Kennedy Chandler: bucket, steal, bucket.
Chandler was there again when Kentucky cut it to six with 5:36 to go, answering immediately on the other end. He stuck two free throws with 2:40 to go that put the Vols up 12. And when it got hectic in the final minutes, and Chandler maybe followed suit…Santiago Vescovi was there to grab the rebound, ensuring Kentucky never had a possession with a chance to tie or take the lead.
Tennessee beat Arizona, LSU, Kentucky, Auburn, and Arkansas at Thompson-Boling Arena. Today, they beat Kentucky in the SEC Tournament semifinals. Again.
I don’t know where the Vols will be seeded. Here’s what I do know:
And I know we haven’t won the SEC Tournament in my lifetime. And I know the last time we played this game, we lost to Auburn by 20 on Sunday. John Fulkerson knows too, he was there.
I know everything is about the NCAA Tournament, and I know you have to find meaningful celebration before then since everyone loses but the champion. And this Tennessee team just keeps making memories, and those memories can give them as good of a chance to advance as we’ve ever seen.
I don’t know how much more challenging it’ll get than today. But today gives Tennessee a chance to make tomorrow even more meaningful.
1:00 PM ET, ESPN for the SEC Tournament Championship on Selection Sunday.
Go Vols.
After six days off, Tennessee returns to the floor tonight against Mississippi State (6:00 PM ET SEC Network) in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. Victory would send the Vols to round three against Kentucky or Vanderbilt on Saturday.
In Thursday’s latest Bracket Matrix, Tennessee is the second #3 seed, 10th overall, with very little space between Purdue, the Vols, and Wisconsin on the three line. Baylor lost to Oklahoma in the Big 12 quarterfinals, but the defending champs are probably too far up the ladder to fall to Tennessee’s range. Villanova narrowly escaped against St. John’s.
For #2 seed purposes, here’s the slate today:
Auburn is the last #1 seed and Kansas the first #2 seed in the Bracket Matrix; like Baylor, they’re also probably out of Tennessee’s range. Next is Kentucky, where the Vols can take care of their own business tomorrow if the opportunity presents itself.
It’s the next group where there’s the most wiggle room: Duke, Villanova, Purdue, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Texas Tech. If the Bracket Matrix holds, two of those teams will earn #2 seeds. Over at Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology, the Vols are the final #2 seed coming into Friday with Villanova; the computers have no human feelings for Coach K, with Duke the last #3 seed.
The NCAA Tournament is both the ultimate goal, and a dangerous way to define your entire season. It’s why regular season memories are valuable to keep us warm year to year, and this Tennessee team has checked that box many times over. The seed line is the combination of the two, your regular season accomplishments giving you a better chance to advance in March. For a program looking for its second Elite Eight and first Final Four, there are tangible rewards available before the national championship.
If the Vols take care of business tonight, they should lock up at least a #3 seed, and may land there even if Mississippi State pulls the upset. Only four Tennessee teams have been seeded three or higher: twos in 2006, 2008, and 2019, and a three in 2018. It would be the most important feather in an already full cap. And the stakes only get higher from here.
Go Vols.
You want your best basketball to emerge at this time of year, and behold: the first half yesterday was without question the Vols’ best 20 minutes of the year. And then the second half highlighted some of the things that have hurt Tennessee the most throughout these 30 games. But as was the case against Arizona and Auburn, the Vols still found a way to get it home. It is, of course, what good opponents do: take away some of your strengths, attack most of your weaknesses, etc. And Tennessee took all of those punches and still had enough to win.
Tennessee is now 20-1 when shooting 29+% from three this season, 19-1 when shooting 39+% from the floor. The one loss came at Rupp Arena, and it seemed like we were going to break even for that in the first half against Arkansas. Tennessee finished 12-of-18 from the arc, tying a school record (from Bruce Pearl’s first SEC game at South Carolina in 2006) for best three-point percentage on 12+ attempts.
This is the most straightforward way to understand this Tennessee team: if they get 30+% from three and 40+% from the floor, they win. And when those things don’t happen, they’re still dangerous because of their defense. Tennessee’s seven losses are all of the Quad 1 variety, all of the road/neutral variety, and three of them are in overtime to Texas Tech, at the buzzer at Texas, and without Kennedy Chandler and John Fulkerson at Alabama.
The Vols moved to 21-1 with 11+ assists on the year. But the Vols also beat Auburn with nine. They beat Arizona right at those shooting numbers: 38.8% from the floor, 29.2% from the arc. Tennessee has been good enough to beat the best teams in college basketball when those best teams take away some of our best strengths.
Arkansas also highlighted some of Tennessee’s greatest weaknesses. Three of the Vols’ worst performances this year came with a heavy dose of turnovers: 20 at Rupp Arena, 18 vs Villanova, 18 in the overtime win at home vs Ole Miss. Turnovers not only cost you a possession, they undercut this team’s greatest strength in having their own defense set.
The Hogs forced 17 turnovers, as did Auburn, many of them late. But Tennessee still won.
Offensive rebounds were a particular sticking point for the Vols in the past, especially when teams went for double digits there. Away from home, Villanova, Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas all went for 10+. In Knoxville, Auburn had 10, and Arkansas 11 yesterday. Oscar Tshiebwe fueled 16 for Kentucky in Knoxville. Even when some of Tennessee’s greatest areas for improvement show up, the Vols have still knocked off elite competition.
The Vols also beat Arizona and Arkansas while shooting just 66.7% at the free throw line; when Tennessee hits above that number, the only teams to beat them are Villanova (on only 13 attempts) and Alabama.
Tennessee is one of just eight teams in the nation with 8+ Quad 1 wins, and one of just eight teams in the nation with zero losses to Quads 2-4. The only teams to show up on both of those lists are Gonzaga and the SEC’s triumvirate of Auburn, Kentucky, and the Vols. The league is as good as it has ever been, and it will be interesting to see how that’s reflected one week from today. But thanks in part to North Carolina’s win at Duke, the Vols are up to the two line in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology. And who knows: if Tennessee wins the SEC Tournament by going through Kentucky and Auburn, I think the Vols could still get to a one seed.
Tennessee’s ceiling and floor seem well defined and in good, working order. The defense is great enough to ask for only goodness from the offense. And even when the competition does a great job attacking the Vols’ few weaknesses, Tennessee has still been good enough to win against the best in college basketball, multiple times over.
If you wanted Tennessee’s best basketball at the right time, you’ve got it. We’ve had it for a while now. And I’m excited to see where it takes us.
Go Vols.
This is the tenth year of SEC expansion, with Missouri and Texas A&M joining the fray in the 2012-13 season. It felt like it would be an immediate upgrade: the Tigers went 30-5 the year before, earning a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
But the first year of league expansion ended up being a relative low point for SEC basketball in 2013: Missouri made it in as a #9 seed, Florida at #3, and Ole Miss got in via Marshall Henderson in the SEC Tournament. The league finished seventh in KenPom’s conference rankings (based on the strength of a .500 team in each league). The next two years, the SEC was all about the team at the top: Florida went 18-0 in league play in 2014, Kentucky 18-0 and 31-0 overall in 2015. And in 2016, the league again sent just three teams to the NCAA Tournament, with Kentucky and Texas A&M splitting the title at 13-5.
The league’s forward momentum started quietly in 2017. Rick Barnes and Bruce Pearl were still getting things off the ground in Knoxville and Auburn. Five teams made the dance that season, and they took advantage: Florida, Kentucky, and South Carolina all made the Elite Eight. By 2018 the Vols and Tigers were ready, sharing the league title at 13-5. And eight teams made the NCAA Tournament.
It was definitive progress for the SEC, which finished fourth in the KenPom conference rankings. But the Vols were actually the highest-seeded of those eight tournament teams, leading a group that fell between the three and nine lines.
For better or worse, Tennessee’s best teams have coincided with the league’s highest peaks. The next year in 2019, the SEC had five teams seeded #5 or higher in the tournament. LSU won the league at 16-2, with Kentucky and Tennessee at 15-3. It is still the only season to feature multiple teams winning 15+ league games.
2020 would’ve been a step back in terms of NCAA Tournament bids, but the league was back at it last season with six teams in the field, including three earning a #5 seed or higher. The SEC again finished fourth in KenPom’s rankings.
That brings us to the present, where four teams will enter Saturday with a chance to earn a piece of the league title. Whoever comes in fourth is going to finish 13-5, which has never happened before. That number was good enough to win the league in 2016 and 2018. And in the latest Bracket Matrix, the SEC has one team on each of the first six seed lines.
In KenPom, the SEC is the second-best conference in college basketball. And they trail only the Big 12, a league they’ve bested in our annual challenge the last two seasons.
The league’s top six teams are all in the Top 25 in KenPom. In these last ten years, the SEC only had more than three teams finish in the Top 25 twice: four in 2018, and five in 2019. Once again, the league’s overall health has coincided with Tennessee’s best basketball.
It’s exciting to consider the league sustaining this level into the future, with Texas and Oklahoma on their way in a few years. But there’s never been this kind of excitement and parity at the top in the present. We’ll see it unfold on Saturday, with four elite teams in the hunt for the league title. We’ll see it in Tampa, with a number of other schools trying to get in from the bubble. And we’ll see it where it matters most in the NCAA Tournament, with a record number of schools giving themselves a chance to advance.
This is as good as SEC basketball has been in my lifetime. And Tennessee still has a chance to win it.
Tennessee’s win over Auburn was the program’s 13th victory over a Top 5 team in the last 17 seasons: seven for Bruce Pearl, six for Rick Barnes. And there may be additional opportunities this season, as early as two weeks from now in Tampa.
Yesterday felt like a celebration of Tennessee basketball. And in that spirit, here’s a quick look back at each of those 13 wins.
2006: Tennessee 80 #2 Florida 76 (Knoxville)
I’m from Knoxville, but have lived in southwest Virginia for 10 of the last 16 years. So a couple of the loudest crowds people always reference – Lofton over Durant, and all of the huge home wins this season – I’ve missed. So in my personal experience, this game is the loudest I’ve ever heard Thompson-Boling Arena. There are different kinds of great crowds, depending on your role as the favorite or the underdog, the rivalry, etc. This was just a bewildered audience: Tennessee was 11-3 coming in, but all our significant outcomes had happened on the road. In Bruce Pearl’s first season and four years removed from the NCAA Tournament, you just weren’t sure what Tennessee could really do in a game like this. And the Vols rewarded all comers with 29 from Chris Lofton, plus a game-winning steal and dish to Dane Bradshaw. This January Saturday made it feel like anything was suddenly possible…and for much of the next 17 years, it has been. Speaking of the Gators…
2007: Tennessee 86 #5 Florida 76 (Knoxville)
Florida won the national championship in 2006, then brought all their guys back. They beat us 94-78 in Gainesville while Lofton sat out with an ankle injury. At 24-2 (11-0), they lost a couple games on the road and fell to fifth in the poll. But everyone knew their ceiling was highest in an incredible year for college basketball, including Kevin Durant with Rick Barnes in Texas. If you weren’t there or were too young for it, it’s hard to describe what it was like to watch Al Horford and Joakim Noah and these guys warm up, and think to yourself, “We have to do everything right to win.” And the Vols did everything right: 21 for Lofton, 20 turnovers for Florida, and a third win over what would soon become the two-time champs. This night was a celebration of Tennessee, with Peyton Manning in the house and the late, great Pat Summitt singing Rocky Top.
2008: #2 Tennessee 66 #1 Memphis 62 (Memphis)
Circumstances that will be impossible to duplicate for the rest of our lives: 1 vs 2, Pearl vs Calipari, undefeated rival. The game itself was not a work of art. But the Vols got it from everywhere: JaJuan Smith kept us alive early, Tyler Smith kept us alive late, and Wayne Chism & J.P. Prince were sensational on both ends of the floor throughout. This thing tipped off at 9:00 PM at the end of the longest day of anticipation any of our basketball teams has ever faced. And the celebration lasted deep into the night; in some parts of the state, I’m sure it’s still going.
2010: #16 Tennessee 76 #1 Kansas 68 (Knoxville)
The least likely of any of these wins. Tennessee had four players dismissed or suspended nine days earlier, then got just 14 minutes from Prince and 19 from Chism due to foul trouble. But Scotty Hopson had 17, and Bobby Maze almost got a triple-double with 16 points, 7 rebounds, and 8 assists. Renaldo Woolridge shot 31.9% from the arc in 2010, making just 15 threes all season. Four of them were in this game. Skylar McBee’s three to beat the shot clock is another loudest moment in TBA contender. And 2010 was just getting started…
2010: #19 Tennessee 74 #2 Kentucky 65 (Knoxville)
We still talk about comparing Kentucky teams to Calipari’s first, which made John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins instant rock stars. The one-and-done Cats were 27-1 (12-1) coming into this one. But they weren’t great at the three ball. And by not great, I mean 2-of-22 in this game. The Vols were up 11 at halftime, and up 19 with 14 to play. Kentucky tied it with two minutes to go. But J.P. Prince gave the Vols the lead back, and Scotty Hopson hit another shot-clock beating three with 41 seconds to play to seal it.
2010: #15 Tennessee 76 #5 Ohio State 73 (Sweet 16)
Tennessee’s only trip to the Elite Eight came through #2 seed Ohio State, who broke Vol hearts three seasons earlier in the same round. Unlike some of the others on this list, this was a tremendous basketball game from start to finish, including a frantic final few minutes. Evan Turner scored 31 for the Buckeyes. But Wayne Chism had 22 and 11 for Tennessee, Prince added 14, and the Vols got 11 off the bench from Cameron Tatum. Prince blocked Turner on the final shot, and Tennessee danced where it hadn’t danced before.
2011: #11 Tennessee 83 #3 Pittsburgh 76 (Pittsburgh)
Peak Scotty Hopson: 27 points on 10-of-13 shooting, plus 19 from Melvin Goins, and the Vols simply ambushed the Panthers. Tennessee was a crisp 7-of-11 from the arc in this one, moving the Vols to 7-0 on the season. It got away from everyone from there, but this was as good of a performance as any game on this list.
2017: Tennessee 82 #4 Kentucky 80 (Knoxville)
The year before, in Rick Barnes’ first season, the Vols surprised Kentucky with a big comeback win. This time, it was good basketball throughout. Robert Hubbs scored 25, Admiral Schofield added 15 off the bench, and freshman Grant Williams, hello: 13 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals, 4 blocks. Much of that with Bam Adebayo going at him. In the moment, it felt like a great win to get your season going toward the NIT, which the Vols ultimately missed. Much has changed since then.
2019: #7 Tennessee 76 #1 Gonzaga 73 (Phoenix)
In KenPom, this is the best team Tennessee has beaten in the last 20 years. And the game itself is probably the best 40-minute watch of any of these (the three-minute highlights are also pretty great). Admiral Schofield turned in what still might be the best non-Lofton individual performance I’ve ever seen: 30 points, 6-of-10 from the arc. The game that moved Tennessee into the national championship conversation.
2019: #7 Tennessee 71 #4 Kentucky 52 (Knoxville)
Tennessee got to number one, stayed there for a month, then got punched in Lexington. A couple of incredibly tense end-of-game situations followed in Baton Rouge and Oxford. So when Kentucky came to Knoxville for the rematch, the best way to describe the Thompson-Boling crowd that day was angry. Like an hour before tip-off. It simmered for a bit: the Vols were up 23-18 from the seven minute mark until almost the four minute mark of the first half. And then Admiral Schofield went baseline over Nick Richards (“That’s a man’s jam!”), followed by a Grant Williams three, and this game was over.
2019: #8 Tennessee 82 #4 Kentucky 78 (SEC Tournament semifinals)
Look, let’s not pretend you haven’t watched the last 2:30 of this like a billion times.
2022: #16 Tennessee 76 #4 Kentucky 63 (Knoxville)
One of the most satisfying things in sports is to go into one of these, “Are we good enough to compete at the highest level,” games against your biggest rival, and leave with the answer being, emphatically, “Yes.” (more from our site on February 16).
2022: #17 Tennessee 67 #3 Auburn 62 (Knoxville)
But this was a great day for Tennessee basketball. I’m so thankful for the past. And I’m so grateful for the present. (more from our site yesterday).
Man, I adore all of these. Which one is your favorite?
There will come a time when Rick Barnes is no longer our coach, riding off into an orange sunset, maybe some gold around the edges. Whenever that happens, we’ll hope whoever is next can continue the program’s momentum.
And because of Rick Barnes and Bruce Pearl, we’ll know such a thing is possible.
Difficult, perhaps. Rare, I hope not. But for Tennessee to live at this level under multiple head coaches? I know that’s possible. And I wasn’t sure it was 11 years ago.
Man, we had fun when Pearl was here. There were so many great days to be a Tennessee Vol.
And man, today was so much fun. And it’s been so much fun for a long time now.
They seem so different, Pearl and Barnes, that sometimes it feels like there’s nothing to do but compare them directly. And in part, that’s the nature of the game: there are winners and losers every time it’s tipped. Pearl and Auburn had won six in a row in this series, though this was the first one in Knoxville during that span to really carry this kind of weight. And what both Pearl and Barnes have done these last five seasons is both remarkable and incredibly similar.
But today, Knoxville was indeed a difference maker:
And today was indeed a great day to be a Tennessee Vol, a great day for our head coach, and for everyone on this roster, because they all did their part.
I thought this game was a great representation of both of these coaches, and the teams who reflect them so well. Auburn was confident, and they forced Tennessee turnovers both early and (very) late. Our season-high for giveaways is 20 at Rupp Arena, then 18 vs Villanova and 18 in the overtime win against Ole Miss. It has been synonymous with some of our worst basketball, cutting the legs out from underneath our defense. And Auburn’s final flourish left us sitting on 18 today as well.
But Tennessee remained steady. It’s a reflection of who they are, even in the face of significant adversity. Auburn led 39-28 with 16:42 to go. The Vol run from there was beautiful, from Brandon Huntley-Hatfield’s three and putback dunk, to Zakai Zeigler’s three to tie it, to Kennedy Chandler’s steady attack at the rim. But the constant is Tennessee’s defense: during that stretch, Auburn went nine-and-a-half minutes without making a shot.
When things got unclogged a bit, it was Santiago Vescovi and Josiah-Jordan James hitting back-to-back threes to keep Tennessee in front. When we suddenly needed another bucket, it was Kennedy Chandler again. And at the end of the night, it was John Fulkerson and his game-high nine rebounds leading one of our most sacred traditions:
Everyone who played for Tennessee scored. It came, in part, through some of what Auburn has hurt us with: a massive 54-31 edge on the glass, including 21 offensive rebounds for the Vols. When you go at Walker Kessler and Jabari Smith, you need every opportunity. And today: Huntley-Hatfield with eight boards, Uros Plavsic with seven, Jonas Aidoo with five, Josiah-Jordan James with nine to match Fulky. Jabari Smith was incredible with 27 points and eight boards. But the Vols held Walker Kessler to just eight and five.
Tennessee’s most magic number remains shooting 29+% from three. The volume was less today, but they still hit it at 6-of-16 (37.5%). The Vols are now 19-1 when they shoot 29% or better from the arc, with it still requiring Kentucky’s Rupp Arena performance to vanquish them at that level.
But several of Tennessee’s other key stats didn’t go all in our favor: 18 turnovers, just 32.8% from the floor overall thanks to Auburn’s shot-blocking presence. The Tigers had just a dozen turnovers overall, which is normally Tennessee’s greatest strength. But nine of those came in the second half.
This probably wasn’t Tennessee’s best basketball; Auburn gets some credit for that. So did Arizona for much of what transpired in the second half of that game. And yet, the Vols still came out on top in the end against two potential number one seeds.
Tennessee moves to 21-7 (12-4), and we’re headed for the dramatic to finish league play next week. Win at Georgia on Tuesday, and the Vols will tip-off against Arkansas next Saturday still alive in the race for the SEC title. Auburn is at Mississippi State (Wednesday 9:00 PM), then hosts South Carolina an hour after the Vols and Razorbacks begin on Saturday.
We’ll spend plenty of time talking about Tennessee’s resume, because it is indeed worth it. There’s so much still to play for.
But this was a great day for Tennessee basketball. I’m so thankful for the past. And I’m so grateful for the present.
Go Vols.
It’s been a busy week, so this is a Dragnet version of the Four Factors Forecast for this afternoon’s big game between projected 3-seed Tennessee and projected 1-seed Auburn at Thompson-Boling.
The lines have the Vols as 3- to 3.5-point favorites.
KemPom projects a two-point win for the Vols — Tennessee 71, Auburn 69 — giving us a 60% chance of winning.
Hat Guy is once again at the wheel, and he likes Auburn by 4 before adjusting for home-court advantage, which according to KenPom is 3.8. Accounting for that, Hat Guy projects overtime with both teams at 74 at the end of regulation.
Current numbers:
If you listened to the podcast this week, you’ll recall that we spent a fair amount of time wondering what the Kryptonite is for this Tennessee team. My current hypothesis is that the thing that gives the Vols the worst fits is guards who are tall and/or have a long reach. Auburn’s guards are 5’11” to 6’1″ and, presumably, not especially reachy, either, so maybe we’re in a Kryptonite-free zone this afternoon.
According to KenPom, Tennessee’s strength of schedule is ranked No. 7 and Auburn’s is ranked No. 32.
Those are the straight-up comparisons. Let’s see what it all looks like with the opponent impact thrown in.
Oof. That’s a recipe for an afternoon of frustrating shooting for the Vols.
Go Vols.
For all that Tennessee and Auburn have accomplished in the last five seasons, it’s kind of strange to realize tomorrow is the first elite showdown between the two in Knoxville during that time.
In Bruce Pearl’s first three seasons (2015-17), Auburn went 44-54. In that same span, the Vols went 47-51 in Rick Barnes’ first two seasons, plus Donnie Tyndall’s year. The two met on January 2, 2018 in Thompson-Boling, with the Vols fresh off a frustrating loss at Arkansas to open league play. Auburn was 12-1, but had played no one rated higher than 45th in KenPom. The Vols were 9-3, and would leave 9-4 (0-2) after Auburn grabbed 22 offensive rebounds.
We wouldn’t meet again until March 9, 2019. In those 14 months, both schools established themselves as a force not just in the SEC, but on the national stage. And neither of us have left.
After going 44-54 from 2015-17, Auburn is 119-41 (56-31 SEC) from 2018-22. After going 47-51 from 2015-17, Tennessee is 112-45 (58-28 SEC) in the same span.
Both are on the way to a fourth NCAA Tournament seed of #5 or higher in these last five seasons (including Auburn as a five seed in the final Bracket Matrix before the pandemic in 2020.) And both are in the hunt for a second SEC Championship, to go with the one we shared in 2018.
Head-to-head, Auburn has won six in a row. The Tigers won in Knoxville in that January 2018 clash, before we both knew where we were headed. And then we missed each other entirely during the come-up over those next 14 months. The only other game in Knoxville since then was the regular season finale in 2020, when Auburn hit 14 threes and drove the Vols back toward the bubble after the win at Rupp Arena.
The two meetings in 2019 were of significant consequence for Tennessee: the 84-80 loss on the Plains in the regular season finale (13 threes for Auburn) cost the Vols the league title. And the rematch the following Sunday in the SEC Tournament (15 threes for Auburn) cost the Vols a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, spoiling the win over Kentucky in the semifinals.
In Auburn’s six straight wins in the series, the Tigers are shooting 36.6% from the arc, averaging 11.2 made threes per game. And that volume is compounded by an average of 14.2 offensive rebounds per game for the Tigers.
Tennessee has solved some of the offensive rebounding woes that previously plagued them, most notably in the home win over LSU. And this Auburn team isn’t as three-happy as its predecessors, getting plenty of great work inside the arc from Walker Kessler and Jabari Smith. We’ll see how much those old woes translate.
I’m much more confident in Knoxville, where the Vols have handled Arizona, Kentucky, LSU, and everyone else this season. Auburn brings in the lowest-rated strength of schedule in the SEC: the Tigers won in Tuscaloosa 81-77 on January 11, but lost at Arkansas and at Florida. They do not go to Rupp or Baton Rouge this year. The crowd will have every opportunity to be a difference-maker as Tennessee pursues its third win over a potential #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. No one in the nation would have something like that on their resume, and no one could doubt setting this team’s ceiling at the very top. It is an extra large basketball game.
There have been incredibly consequential Tennessee/Auburn games in the last five seasons. And Rick Barnes and Bruce Pearl make it easy to believe there will be others, perhaps just two weeks from now in Tampa.
But as both programs have risen, this is the first one of such stature in Knoxville. And I’m excited to see what awaits inside Thompson-Boling on Saturday.
Go Vols.
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