Category Archives: Basketball

Coming off a 37-point dominating performance in a 92-84 win over Vanderbilt earlier this week, Grant Williams this evening instead served as the “inside” to Tennessee’s inside-out game against a tall Texas A&M squad en route to a 75-62 win over the Aggies.

Williams was credited with only two actual assists on the night, but he was often the trigger man for a series of quick passes out of the post and then around the perimeter before a wide open shot went down. Every starter on the roster scored in double figures except Williams, who still finished with 9, and the team outdid the Aggies on the offensive boards 14-6 as well.

A&M entered Thompson-Boling Arena on a four-game skid after starting 11-1, but this would be their first game back at full strength. The game was tight early, but the Vols began to pull away about halfway through the first half. Heading into the locker room for the break, Tennessee was ahead 36-28.

The Aggies seemed just barely shy of theatening most of the rest of the way, but never really put it together. They made one final push with about six minutes remaining and the Vols stuck on 65, cutting the lead down to 6 points with 3:41 to go. Grant Williams put an end to that out of a timeout, though, with a sweet jump hook for 2 in the middle of the lane, and the Vols mostly coasted home from there.

Jordan Bowden led the way with 15 points, and Kyle Alexander, Admiral Schofield, and Jordan Bone had 14, 12, and 10. Scofield led the team on the boards with 8.

The Vols move to 12-4 overall and 3-2 in the SEC, 1.5 games behind 4-0 Auburn. They are currently 13th in RPI and 14th in KenPom. Up next is Missouri, Wednesday at 9:00.

Go Vols!

Two weeks ago Texas A&M was the best team in the best SEC of at least the last decade. The Aggies were ranked fifth in the Christmas Day AP poll, 11-1 with a three-point loss to Arizona the only blemish. They beat West Virginia – currently ranked second in the nation – by 23 points in the season opener. They won at then-#10 Southern Cal by 16. They were rolling.

Then there was some weirdness. DJ Hogg served a three game suspension. Robert Williams missed a game with illness. Admon Gilder missed five games with a knee injury. Duane Wilson has missed three and counting with another knee injury. Tyler Davis, who leads the team in scoring at 14.6 points per game, is one of only two Aggies in the top eight in scoring who has played every game this year.

In the midst of all this lineup shuffling, they entered SEC play. They lost at Alabama by 22. Then they lost at home to Florida by 17. Then they lost to LSU on a last second shot that “heave” doesn’t even begin to describe. Then they went to Rupp with most of their lineup healthy, and may or may not have gotten hosed on a pass interference no-call in another one-point loss. And now A&M is 11-5 (0-4).

In KenPom, Tennessee is the best team in the SEC (and 15th nationally). Texas A&M, Auburn, Kentucky, and Florida are 21st-24th. So technically this is a match-up of the two best teams in the SEC via KenPom, but really it’s just another big challenge in Tennessee’s schedule, one that could go to number one in RPI by Saturday night.

What Texas A&M does well:

• These dudes are tall (so, you guessed it: offensive rebounding). The Aggies are 32nd nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at 35.3% (just ahead of the Vols at 35.2%). They’re not quite as strong as North Carolina, Auburn, or Kentucky in this metric, but they come about their numbers the old-fashioned way:  Tyler Davis and Robert Williams are 6’10”, DJ Hogg is 6’9″, and they can bring Tonny Trocha-Morelos off the bench, also 6’10”. They lead the SEC with 55 offensive rebounds in four games.
• Defense (when at full strength). On the year, the Aggies allow just 38.8% from the floor, 18th nationally. In four SEC games, they allow 47.8%, last in the conference. They held West Virginia to 34.3% and Southern Cal to 28.2%. But they allowed Kentucky to shoot 55.8%, despite being as healthy as they’d been in the last two weeks. Florida shot 51.6%, Alabama 45.6%, and LSU 40%.
• A veteran team that shares the basketball. Behind the Vols, this is the second best team in the SEC in assist percentage at 60.7%, 25th nationally. Robert Williams is a sophomore, but the rest of their major pieces are juniors and seniors. They had 22 assists on 31 made shots in the win over West Virginia. But they also look a little like Tennessee last year in this stat:  10-1 with 15+ assists, 1-4 with 14 or fewer.

What Tennessee can do to win:

• Beat their size at the three-point line. The Aggies are 10-0 when holding opponents to 30% or less from the arc, 1-5 with losses to Alabama (30.4%), Arizona (31.8%), Kentucky (33.3%), LSU (42.9%), and Florida (17-of-28, 60.7%) when they don’t. The Vols shoot 39.5% on the season (33rd nationally) and in conference play (third in the league). Tennessee’s best looks have come playing inside-out; we’ll see how A&M’s size might affect that strategy in creating good offense from good ball movement.
• Win the turnover battle again. Last year it was the most important stat in Tennessee’s SEC-opening win at College Station:  16 Texas A&M turnovers led to a 10-point Volunteer win. A&M has 54 turnovers in SEC play, most in the league. If the Tennessee defense can continue to force turnovers, and the offense can continue to create good shots, the Vols will have a good chance to send A&M to 0-5.
• Who dictates the game? The Vols have won in chameleon-like fashion this year. They beat Purdue’s massive size by way of great defense and clutch shooting. They locked down Arkansas for 36 minutes, then got blown by with foul trouble at the end. They stood toe-to-toe with North Carolina on the offensive glass, then were obliterated there by a smaller Auburn team. They slowed it down against Kentucky, defended without fouling, and won in the grind. Then they were happy to get into a footrace with Vanderbilt and won by scoring 92 points. The Vols can win in more than one fashion, which is great. Is there a style of play Tennessee actually prefers and can dictate to an opponent? This may be a question for the back half of Tennessee’s conference schedule, when things get a little easier. If not, it’ll take a Purdue-like performance in defending A&M’s size without getting Grant Williams and Kyle Alexander into foul trouble to get this one home.

A win here would get the Vols through their early conference gauntlet at at least .500 after a trip to Missouri next week. There are six SEC teams in the KenPom Top 40 behind the Vols; by next weekend Tennessee will have played all of them except Florida, with only one game against the Gators and a trip to Rupp left on the schedule. I thought at the beginning of league play a 3-3 start would be a good sign; I didn’t see the end of the Arkansas game or most of the Auburn game coming, but the Vols have righted the ship since then and none of us saw A&M’s 0-4 start coming. A win here ensures the Vols will stay on the path to contending for an SEC title and a favorable NCAA seed.

6:00 PM Saturday, SEC Network. Go Vols.

Tennessee took Vanderbilt’s best punch in the first half, and the Commodores continued to throw blows deep into the second. A Vandy team that loved to shoot threes but had struggled to make them erased that problem in the first half with an 8-of-15 performance, pushing their lead to 10. Quietly, the Vols were hot as well. In the second half, a more perimeter-focused defense held Vandy to 3-of-11 from the arc. The trade-off was better looks at the rim, particularly for freshman Saben Lee. His 21 points could have been the story.

But Tennessee’s quiet heat from the first half was an eruption in the second, and the night ended with, “It’s great…to be…” ringing through Memorial Gym. The Vols shot 56.6% from the floor, 7-of-13 from the arc, and 25-of-28 at the free throw line.

The Vols got the lead in a little more than seven minutes in the second half, sparked by Jordan Bowden. The two rivals continued to trade blows for the next three minutes, with Vandy’s last lead coming with 9:12 to play. Free throws from Matthew Fisher-Davis cut it back to two at 7:10. But from there, Vanderbilt’s punches lost their power. And Tennessee body-blowed them to death with Grant Williams, before Jordan Bone delivered the knockout with a three to put the Vols up 10 with 2:44 to go.

But it was Williams who did the real damage all night long, turning in one of the greatest performances of the post-Allan Houston era at Tennessee.

37 points was not only a career high, it is the most any Vol has scored since Ron Slay got 38 in 2003. That means tonight Williams, who scored 30 twice last year, passed the career highs of Steve Hamer (31), Scotty Hopson (32), Jordan McRae (35), Chris Lofton (35), and Kevin Punter’s 36-point game two years ago. He did it on just 20 shots, making 12 while adding 13-of-15 at the line.

Tennessee has played so many good teams this year, we’ve gotten used to seeing the opponent have a better answer for Williams. Vanderbilt, without Kornet in the middle, had none. And it was obvious from the opening tip, a glimmer of hope at halftime that Williams’ automatic looks from the paint were more likely to keep falling than Vanderbilt’s threes.

And Williams doesn’t get 37 without Adrmial Schofield getting 22, following up his 21 from the Kentucky win. He added nine rebounds, four of them offensive.

That glimmer of hope even when the Vols were down 10 on the road at Memorial? It’s one of the signs of a really good team: you learn not to give up on them, or even to panic. There may be other down-10’s in this year’s SEC. But the Vols – other than a few late minutes against pressure from North Carolina and Arkansas, and what looks less and less like an off night against Auburn – are remarkably steady.

Tennessee thrived in the non-conference with defense; they’ll probably have the lowest field goal percentage defense in the SEC through four games, and they should be 3-1. The Vol offense has been at its best all year when driven by great ball movement and assists. Tonight, Tennessee just got the ball to its best player and got out of the way. And it’s been a long time since we’ve seen a Tennessee team willingly get into a game they need to score 90 points to win, and do just that, on the road. But yep, this Tennessee team checked that one off tonight too.

Just a big, satisfying win with a historic performance from Tennessee’s best player. The Vols go to 11-4 (2-2) and crack the Top 15 in KenPom. Up next is Texas A&M, ranked fifth in the AP poll at the start of SEC play and now 0-4 after a last second loss at Rupp. There are no nights off, but a Tennessee team capable of winning multiple ways is built to last in this conference.

Go Vols.

How’s the Kevin Stallings/Vanderbilt break-up going in year two? The ‘Dores lost in Dayton in Stallings’ last year, then became the first team to earn an at-large bid with 15 losses (as a 9 seed!) under Bryce Drew before a heartbreaking end against Northwestern in round one. So far this year Vanderbilt is 6-9 against the nation’s 10th most difficult schedule. Stallings, charming as ever, had the first losing season in 17 years at Pitt in year one, and is currently 8-8 with three double digit losses to open ACC play.

There’s no Luke Kornet, but all the other names you know and love are back:  Jeff Roberson, Matthew Fisher-Davis, and Riley LaChance all average between 11-15 points while playing 28-32 minutes. Freshman guard Saben Lee adds another 10.5 points. There’s a problem from there, though:  no one else averages more than five points per game, a hodgepodge of seven other guys playing between 11-18 minutes.

Vandy beat Alabama 76-75 last week for their first SEC win. Their next best win this season is your choice of Radford or UNC Asheville. But all of their nine losses are to teams projected to finish in the RPI Top 100, six of them in the RPI Top 50. Only a couple were particularly competitive – an overtime loss to then-#10 Southern Cal, home losses to Kansas State and MTSU by a combined eight points in the same week – but I wouldn’t sleep on this team just yet.

What Vanderbilt does well:

• Let it fly. Vandy takes 26.1 threes per game, and leads the SEC with 85 in their first three conference games. There’s a stark contrast on the stat sheet:  LaChance shoots 43.7% from the arc, Roberson 41.9%, and then a fairly significant break. MFD is at just 33.7%, Payton Willis at 35.3% off the bench, and there are a bunch of guys shooting percentages with a 1 or 2 in front of them. The team shoots 32.7%, 278th nationally. This reeks of a team that could suddenly get hot (and they did hit 10-of-25 against Alabama), but so far, being not so good on percentage hasn’t kept them from taking them.
• Limit turnovers. The Vols feasted on Kentucky in this department, but will find a different and much more experienced animal in Nashville. Or at least that was the case until South Carolina turned them over 19 times in their last game. Before that, the Dores averaged just 9.8 turnovers in their previous six games.
• Defending threes. Opponents shoot 31.4% against Vanderbilt from the arc, 47th nationally. This hasn’t made a big difference in wins/and losses:  the ‘Dores have five losses where the opponent shot less than 30% from the arc, which is fascinating. The Vols did a good job against Kentucky getting open threes against a team that typically limits their effectiveness; they’ll need more of the same here.

What Tennessee can do to win:

• Defensive excellence returns. Tennessee is still 14th nationally in defensive efficiency via KenPom, in part because we’ve played the nation’s third toughest schedule by offensive efficiency. And the Vols beat Kentucky despite allowing 46.2% from the floor. But the Vols are allowing 46.5% in three SEC games, worst in the SEC. The Vols, of course, have played three excellent offenses. But now, against a team that loves to shoot threes, on the road, in a rivalry game…the best way to win is for Tennessee’s defense to take all of that out of the equation with a return to its own excellence.
• Complement good offense at the free throw line. Tennessee’s assist rate has been a big story all year. But the Vols are backing that up with good work at the line in SEC play:  66-of-87 (75.9%) is first in makes, second in attempts, and fifth in percentage through three games. Grant Williams is what you’d expect with an average of 4.8 free throw attempts per game. But the rest of the scorers have been really good here too:  Schofield, Bowden, and Turner all have 38 attempts this year, and Jordan Bone has 42. Everybody can attack and everybody can get to the line, on top of a strong ball-sharing offense to begin with.
• Handle success. The Vols only had 24 hours to process their win over Purdue, but came out hot against Villanova before falling short. There’s a little more distance between the Kentucky win and this trip, and the Commodores aren’t as good on paper as many of the teams the Vols have already faced this year. How will Barnes have his guys ready to go tonight in Nashville in a taking-care-of-business situation?

We continue to have the television schedule of a team picked to finish 13th in this league instead of the one currently ranked first in KenPom and RPI:  9:00 PM ET, SEC Network. Go Vols.

Kentucky has a bad habit of having guys an undersized Tennessee team just has no good answer for. Last night it was PJ Washington: 13 points on 6-of-8 shooting, plus three steals and two blocks. He did all of that in just 23 minutes, which is impressive, but ultimately helpful for Tennessee, as cramps kept him from playing any more than that. Last year it was Bam Adebayo, who had 21 points on 7-of-8 shooting in Knoxville.

But Tennessee has countered with effective play from undersized forwards against Kentucky’s bigs. Two years ago Armani Moore had 18 points and 13 rebounds in Knoxville. Last year Admiral Schofield had 15 points off the bench. And last night, Schofield had 20 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 steals in one of the best games of his career. And the Vols have three straight wins over Kentucky in Knoxville (and seven of the last eleven).

The Vols broke what had been their hardest and fastest rule this season:  hold the other team under 40% and win, don’t and don’t. Kentucky shot north of 55% in the first half and still finished at 46.2%. Only Arkansas has done better against the Vol defense this year.

But though the defense struggled to find its footing early, the Vols took the thing they were best at – successfully sharing the basketball – and did it better than ever last night. Tennessee had 23 assists on 25 made baskets, 92%. With a flu-ridden Jordan Bone playing only nine minutes, James Daniel and Lamonte Turner picked up the slack with 11 assists between them. And the Vols also worked inside out, as Schofield, Grant Williams, and John Fulkerson combined for another 11 assists.

It is, obviously, the best performance of the year by assist percentage, and significantly better than anything the Vols had done against a power conference opponent (70% against NC State is the next best performance). Tennessee is back up to fourth nationally in that stat at 66.8%; Michigan State, the nation’s new number one (but probably not for long after a loss to Ohio State), is the new leader. Look at how good the performance against Kentucky was compared to the best game in assist percentage in previous years:

• 2017: Appalachian State (74.3%)
• 2016: Gardner-Webb (75%)
• 2015: Tennessee State (78.3%)
• 2014: Tusculum (85.7%)
• 2013: Mississippi State (67.9%)
• 2012: South Carolina (73.7%)
• 2011: Auburn (73.9%)

That’s as far back as the advanced gamelogs go at Sports Reference, but consider the Vols also cracked 80+% this season against Lipscomb (88%) and Mercer (86.7%). Tennessee has successfully shared the ball better in three games this season than in any other game in at least the last seven years. And the top performance came against Kentucky.

As I type on Sunday evening, Tennessee’s strength of schedule is second nationally in RPI, fourth in KenPom. That’s so impressive that, last year, you could make a legitimate argument for Tennessee as an NCAA Tournament team when they surged to number one in strength of schedule after beating Kentucky and Kansas State back to back…to get to 12-9 overall. This team is 10-4 with two RPI Top 15 victories at the moment. And at the same moment, the Vols are the highest rated SEC team in both RPI and KenPom.

Look, this league is going to get nuts. The only winless team is the one that was in the top five when conference play started 10 days ago. The only undefeated teams are Florida, who was in free fall 10 days ago and needed heroics to beat Missouri on Saturday, and Auburn, suddenly allowing us to make the argument that all four of Tennessee’s losses are to really good teams. The entire league is still in the KenPom Top 90. There are no cupcakes on the menu. That Tennessee could be objectively considered the best team in a league like this right now? It’s quite the accomplishment, one that fittingly includes a win over Kentucky.

Lots of work left to do. But lots of good work already on this resume. Don’t stop now.

Go Vols.

Tennessee overcame a rough first half and pulled away in the second to beat the Kentucky Wildcats 76-65 in Thompson-Boling Arena this evening. Admiral Schofield led the way with 20 points on 8-13 shooting, and he added 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 steals, and a block, not to mention the exclamation point slam in the final seconds.

Grant Williams and Lamonte Turner each also hit double figures, and the team held Kentucky’s Kevin Knox and Hamidou Diallo to 6 and 5 points, respectively.

The game marked Tennessee’s third straight win over Kentucky in Knoxville for Rick Barnes’ team. Heading into the game, Kentucky’s three-point defense (29.2%), shot-blocking, and offensive rebounding were the concerns. Not to worry, as the Vols hit 8 of 22 three-pointers (36.4%), and Kentucky blocked only 4 of Tennessee’s 55 shots and rebounded only 8 of their own 52 attempts. Tennessee turned Kentucky over 16 times.

The win brings Tennessee to 10-4 overall and 1-2 in the SEC, two games behind 3-0 Florida. Up next is Vanderbilt, on Tuesday at 9:00 p.m. in Nashville.

The Vols have won six of the last ten in this series in Knoxville, including the last two. On the surface it might feel like these two teams are going in completely different directions:  the Vols are a frustrating 0-2 in league play after a stellar run through the non-conference, while Kentucky followed up a frustrating loss to UCLA with an absolute beat down of Louisville and a 2-0 start in conference. But Sagarin gives the Vols a 46% chance to win; I’d expect another close one.

Close is going to be the nature of the beast every night in this league. Of the ten SEC teams to play two conference games, only two (the usual suspects from Florida and Kentucky) are 2-0. The Cats themselves beat Georgia and LSU by a combined eight points. Texas A&M was the best team in the league a week ago, now they’re 0-2 with a 22-point loss at Alabama and a 17-point loss at home to Florida. Welcome to this year’s SEC.

This Year’s Lexington D-League Squad

We bid farewell to Malik Monk, De’Aaron Fox, Bam Adebayo, and Isaiah Briscoe. In their place are, you guessed it, five freshmen.

6’9″ Kevin Knox gets 14.6 points and 6 rebounds, with 6’5″ Hamidou Diallo just behind at 14.4. Facilitating much of this is 6’6″ Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with 12.1 points, 4.1 assists, and 2.3 steals. 6’7″ PJ Washington goes for 10.6 and 5.3 rebounds, and 6’0″ Quade Green adds 10.5 per game. Knox is on the floor by far the most at 33.1 minutes per game.

What Kentucky does well:

• Defending the three-point line. The Cats give up an impressive 29.2% from the arc, ninth-best nationally. Georgia and LSU went 8-for-45 (17.8%). Tennessee hasn’t been living from outside, and as many have noted, Jordan Bowden could probably use an even greener light. But the length and athleticism you can assume from a Calipari squad is once again making it difficult for opponents from the arc:  last year they finished 12th nationally in this stat.
• Two things Auburn was good at:  shot-blocking, where the Cats are 20th nationally in block percentage, sending back 15.7% of opponent shots. PJ Washington is a factor here, but two guys playing fewer minutes are also really strong:  Nick Richards averages 1.4 blocks in 16.9 minutes, and Wenyen Gabriel averages 1.4 in 22.8.
• …and offensive rebounding, hooray! After Auburn’s absurd performance Tuesday where they rebounded half of their misses, the Tigers are fifth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at 38.1%. Kentucky isn’t far behind at 36.6%. I don’t know if we should be worried about seeing the same problem twice in a row, but I’d imagine Barnes is happy to have the teaching moment.

What Tennessee can do to win:

• Turn Kentucky over. If a young Calipari team is bad at something…it’s free throw shooting, of course (68.8%). If there’s a second option for this team, however, it’s turnovers. UK is 199th nationally in turnover percentage, giving it away on 16.6% of their possessions. Tennessee is 61st nationally in opponent turnover percentage at 19.2%. The home floor can help. The Vols have not been shy about going up-tempo when the opponent wants to run; if that happens here, Tennessee needs to come out on top in the turnover department. The Cats had 18 turnovers in their loss to Kansas; 12 of them were steals.
• Be the more mature team. Sometimes the non-juggernaut Calipari teams take a minute to adjust to the night-in, night-out grind of SEC play. The 2016 team started 3-2 in league play, 2-1 in 2014, 3-2 in 2013, and 5-5 in 2011. Tennessee obviously isn’t setting the SEC world on fire right now, but has far more experience with this routine and could take advantage.
• Bring the necessary effort. I’d wager what happened on the offensive glass against Auburn won’t happen again, at least to that extent. But Tennessee also has to focus in if it wants to keep living in the same conversations the Vols have enjoyed since the Bahamas. Winning this one should keep Tennessee in the Top 25, would give another Top 25 win to their resume, and allow the Vols to keep thinking about contending for the SEC title and a favorable seed in the NCAA Tournament. But an 0-3 start in league play keeps you out of the conference title conversation by default, and would swing the overall conversation back to, “Wait, let’s just make sure we get in this thing.” The Vols have been better than that for the majority of the year. The necessary effort against Kentucky is a 40-minute effort; many, many Tennessee teams as good or better than this one have played 32-to-36 good minutes against the Cats and lost by 6-10 points. I’d expect Barnes to get more out of this team Saturday night than he did on Tuesday. And as it’s done all year, that should be enough to give Tennessee a chance to win.

It’s just the 15th ranked vs ranked game for the Vols at Thompson-Boling; the Vols are 10-4 in those games after the loss to North Carolina. A late tip for your Titans playoff viewing pleasure:  9:00 PM on the SEC Network. Go Vols.

The Vols led 28-14 ten minutes into the game, but it only took Auburn five minutes to erase that lead. The Vols led 61-56 with 8:30 to play, but Auburn was up 80-68 a little more than four minutes later.

When things got away from Tennessee today, they got away in a hurry. This scene played out at the end of the Arkansas game due to foul trouble, but today the Vols’ struggles were more troubling: dominated on the offensive glass at home.

And dominated is an understatement. Auburn finished with 22 offensive rebounds, only getting more defensive rebounds (24) because they grabbed two in the final seconds with the game out of reach. The Tigers rebounded half of their misses. The result:  74 shot attempts to Tennessee’s 58. The Vols actually shot the ball better (41.4% to 40.5%) and both teams were below average from three (roughly 29% each) and stellar at the line (Vols 81%, Auburn 86%). But when one team gets 16 more shot attempts, that team is going to win.

Auburn is a good offensive rebounding team, but Tennessee came into this game as a good rebounding team period…and the Vols got outworked and outplayed. Maybe the early lead took away a sense of urgency, maybe Saturday’s loss at Arkansas still loomed. Either way, Auburn looked like they wanted this one more, and they took it in Knoxville.

The loss sends Tennessee to 9-4 (0-2), and it gets no easier with Kentucky calling on Saturday. Anyone using the phrase “must-win” should step away from the keyboard, but it’s an important one to reclaim momentum and get another big win. If the Vols want to stay among the nation’s best in the Top 25, they’ll have to prove it against Kentucky. And they’ll have to bring more fire than they showed tonight to do so.

The turnovers in the last few minutes are frustrating, but Tennessee’s biggest cause for concern is defending great guards. Villanova’s Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson combined for 46 points on 15-of-26 from the field. And Arkansas got 61 from Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon on 20-of-36.

Tennessee countered with outstanding play from its own guards on the offensive end in Fayetteville: 21 from Jordan Bone and 17 from James Daniel. The Vols will need more of the same in the future if they fail to improve on the other end. Foul trouble was a significant factor at Arkansas, and it stands out in amazing ways in the play-by-play. With multiple players on the foul hampered with four fouls, the Vols had to defend differently.

Admiral Schofield hit a three to put the Vols up 68-60 with 4:04 to play, then picked up his fourth foul ten seconds later at the under four timeout. Arkansas scored 60 points in the game’s first 36 minutes (1.67 per minute). They scored 35 points in the game’s final nine minutes (3.88 per minute, a 156-point pace for a full game). In the last four minutes of regulation and all of overtime, the only Arkansas possessions that did not end with points were the final sequence in regulation, and two missed free throws by Daniel Gafford with 40 seconds to play in overtime.

Grant Ramey points out the Vols are 16th nationally in fouls per game. Obviously, that has to come down. We saw how quickly Tennessee’s defense – still ninth in KenPom’s ratings – can fall apart against a good offense when multiple components are slowed or sidelined with foul trouble. But even when fouls are less of an issue, Tennessee’s backcourt defense looks like its biggest weakness entering the new year.

The good news:  the Vols still had a chance to win. And they’ll get another shot at a good backcourt right away.

Auburn’s moment arrives

The Tigers haven’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 2003 and the NIT since 2009. Last year Bruce Pearl got them above .500 for the first time since that 08-09 season. This year they’re off to a 12-1 start, and are a 10 seed in the January 1 Bracket Matrix.

In classic Pearl scheduling, the Tigers faced a bunch of RPI-friendly mid-majors. They lost to Temple on a neutral floor, but have wins over Winthrop, Dayton, UAB, Middle Tennessee, and Murray State. In their marquee test, they hosted UConn in a down year for the Huskies (126th in KenPom), and won by 25.

That means their two most difficult games so far will come this week:  at #23 Tennessee on Tuesday, then hosting #22 Arkansas on Saturday.

Auburn is a lot like us. With 6’11” Austin Wiley and 6’7″ Danjel Purifoy – two of their top four scorers last year – out indefinitely due to potential ineligibility surrounding the ongoing federal investigation, the Tigers play no one bigger than 6’8″. Nine players get 13+ minutes; the Vols have nine getting 11+.

Auburn hopes to be good, but is yet to play a great team. Tennessee hopes to be great, and has played several already.

What Auburn does well:

• Defending inside the arc. Opponents shoot just 41.7% against the Tigers from two, the 11th best defensive percentage in the nation. This is in part because, like Tennessee, Auburn is an excellent shot-blocking team despite their lack of size. The main threat here is 6’8″ sophomore Anfernee McLemore, who tosses 3.4 shots per game in just over 20 minutes of action. Auburn blocks 19.2% of opponent shots, fourth nationally, and McLemore leads the nation in this stat in sending back 18.7% of the shots taken while he’s on the floor.
• Offensive rebounding. Auburn is 14th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (37.2%). 6’3″ Desean Murray, a Presbyterian transfer, has been particularly good here with 36 offensive rebounds on the year.
• Free throw shooting. Hold your 2007 Ohio State jokes. The Tigers’ 77.1% is 20th nationally; Auburn’s top four scorers all shoot between 79-82%. You do not want to be behind this bunch in the final minute.

What Tennessee can do to win:

• Defend the three. Auburn launches 26 threes per game, 8.5 of them from Bryce Brown (hitting 35.5%). This won’t be anything new for Tennessee:  Vol opponents have taken 237 threes, the 13th most any team has seen this season. The Vols give up just 34.2% on the year from three, and volume shooting teams like Furman (25.9%) and even Villanova (35.3%) have struggled to find victory that way against Tennessee. If Auburn wins from the arc, they will be the first to do so against Tennessee this year.
• Continue to share the ball. The Vols have dropped from first to eighth nationally in assist percentage, but still share the ball on 65.5% of their made baskets. Auburn doesn’t create a ton of turnovers, and won’t be the first fast-paced team the Vols have seen this year. Good offense via good shots is still Tennessee’s best plan of attack.
• Make free throws.  While the Tigers shoot their own free throws well, they’ve certainly been helped by the opposition shooting just 73.8% against them. After a solid start to the season, Tennessee is just 44-of-66 (66.7%) in the last three games. Eight missed free throws at Arkansas made a difference. Tennessee needs this to trend back in the other direction.

The Vols are 4-1 against Bruce Pearl at Auburn, but this is the first one where the ex-Tennessee coach isn’t the lead story. That’s a credit to both Pearl and Rick Barnes for getting these two teams where they are now from where they were when both took over. The Vols need a rebound after a tough loss to open SEC play. Auburn needs a win to validate their place on the bubble. It should be another good one.

7:00 PM ET Tuesday, ESPNU. Go Vols.