Category Archives: Basketball

The Vols are 16-5 (6-3), tied for second in the SEC, and host Ole Miss tomorrow (6:00 PM ET, SEC Network). The Rebels are 11-11 (4-5), 76th in KenPom, and yet to win on the road this year. They are probably a little better than their record: three of their home losses were in overtime, and two weeks ago they lost at Texas A&M by two and at Arkansas by four. But if the Vols can win their eighth game in nine tries, we’ll get to test the ceiling again next week at Kentucky and at Alabama.

We’ll save the larger conversation about Tennessee’s potential until then. For now, let’s put UT’s first three months in historical context.

A dozen Vol squads have made the NCAA Tournament since it went to 64 teams in 1985. Two of them won the SEC (a four-way tie in 2000 and outright in 2008). Jerry Green’s 1999 and 2000 teams earned a four seed in the NCAA Tournament; Bruce Pearl’s 2006 and 2008 squads earned a two seed. And of course, the 2010 squad made the program’s only Elite Eight from a six seed.

And all of them made it through January with less than six losses.

Season	Record	Pct.	NCAA Seed	SEC	Sixth loss
2014	21-12 (11-7)	0.636	11	4th	January 18
2011	19-14 (8-8)	0.576	9	7th	January 11
2010	25-8 (11-5)	0.758	6	3rd	February 13
2009	21-12 (10-6)	0.636	9	2nd	January 24
2008	29-4 (14-2)	0.879	2	1st	n/a
2007	22-10 (10-6)	0.689	5	2nd	January 24
2006	21-7 (12-4)	0.750	2	2nd	March 1
2001	22-10 (8-8)	0.689	8	6th	February 10
2000	24-6 (12-4)	0.800	4	1st	SEC Tourn.
1999	20-8 (12-4)	0.714	4	2nd	February 2
1998	20-8 (9-7)	0.714	8	5th	February 11
1989	19-10 (11-7)	0.655	10	5th	February 1

(Records listed from Selection Sunday)

By any metric, Rick Barnes’ team is having one of those years to this point.

Tennessee’s schedule is third nationally in KenPom; the Vols have been challenged without question. But the schedule hasn’t been as kind for fans wanting to get on board with this team. The Vols’ biggest win came the day before Thanksgiving with the football program in the midst of a coaching search. They hosted Auburn on January 2, long before anyone knew Auburn was this good. Then they caught Texas A&M after the Aggies had fallen out of the Top 25.

Three of Tennnessee’s nine SEC games earned the dreaded 9:00 PM tip-off slot, and two more are on the schedule. And, other than the Battle 4 Atlantis games, the Vols will be on ESPN or ESPN2 just five times this year (North Carolina, at Wake Forest, at South Carolina, at Kentucky, and Florida).

The Vols have the television schedule of a team picked to finish 13th in the SEC. And their overall conference schedule was not only easier, but front-loaded. If you were looking to get invested in this team and wanted to come to a big home game beyond January 13, the choices weren’t great: Vanderbilt, LSU, Ole Miss, South Carolina at 9:00 PM on a Tuesday, Florida at 9:00 PM on a Wednesday, or Georgia. The league office didn’t do this team any favors in that regard.

It may not feel the same because of the schedule, or because the coach doesn’t paint his chest, there’s no Chris Lofton and no soon-to-be NBA stars, and they’re not breaking a lengthy tournament drought like Jerry Green’s teams. But this team is on the same pace through three months that Tennessee’s best teams of the modern era have set. And with one more win tomorrow, we can spend the next week dreaming even bigger than an amazing first three months have allowed.

Go Vols.

 

Tennessee took care of business against an out-manned LSU team tonight in Thompson-Boling Arena, beating the Tigers 84-61.

James Daniel III picked up where he left off against Iowa State Saturday and this time led the way for the Vols, scoring 17 points and adding 4 assists and 2 steals. Grant Williams added 16 points, and Jordan Bone and Lamonte Turner each had 12.

The Vols defense once again clamped down on its opponent, as the only real threat for LSU this evening was 6’11” Duop Reath, who scored 21 points for the Tigers. Tennessee held LSU as a team to 39.3% shooting from the field and a woeful 15.8% from the arc. The Vols, on the other hand, hit 54.1% from the field and 48% from three. Oh, and they had 24 assists on 33 made shots.

The Vols move to 16-5 overall and 6-3 in the conference with the following games remaining:

• Ole Miss;
• at #21 Kentucky;
• at Alabama;
• South Carolina;
• at Georgia;
• #23 Florida;
• at Ole Miss;
• at Mississippi State; and
• Georgia

You don’t want to get too carried away, and there are no easy games in the SEC, but Tennessee should have the advantage in most of those, save the one at Kentucky in Rupp and the one against Florida. We’ll see how it goes.

Next up is Ole Miss at 6:00 on Saturday.

Go Vols.

And now, the turn toward home.

The SEC didn’t disappoint over the weekend, taking the Big 12/SEC Challenge from the nation’s best conference with six wins. The Big 12 had 16 non-conference losses coming into the challenge before Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt got it done for the SEC. The Big 12 remains the leader in conference RPI, but the SEC is now third.

Lines are becoming clear in the Bracket Matrix as well:

Yep, this is still happening: 

• Auburn is 19-2 (7-1)…and they’re getting better. After a narrow loss at Alabama, the Tigers beat Georgia by 14, won at Missouri by 18, then beat LSU by 25. Those are three bubble teams, and they all went in Bruce Pearl’s wood chipper. They’re eighth in KenPom and now a two seed in the matrix. And, already a game up on the field, they only have one game with Kentucky (February 14 at Auburn) and Florida (February 24 in Gainesville) left on the schedule. We were waiting for one of those two to show themselves as the league’s elite team…turns out it’s been the team atop the standings all along.
• Tennessee was picked 13th in preseason, have you heard? They’re just behind the Tigers (who were picked ninth) in KenPom at #10, and now a four seed in the matrix. Only four Tennessee teams have earned a four seed or higher in the 64+ team NCAA Tournament: Jerry Green’s 1999 and 2000 squads were both a four, and Bruce Pearl’s 2006 and 2008 teams were both twos. UT’s head-to-head loss to Auburn is costly for winning the league outright, essentially making the Vols three games back. But with a strength of schedule still rated first in KenPom, the Vols have a slightly easier road the rest of the way home. Tennessee too has games left with Kentucky (in Rupp, February 4) and Florida (in Knoxville, February 21), plus a road trip to Tuscaloosa where the Tigers fell next Saturday. But its other seven games are against teams currently out of the field of 68 in the matrix.

Yep, they’re still here:

• Florida is 6-2 in the league, though they are just prone enough to weirdness to make their fans nervous. The Gators had a 1-4 stretch in late November/early December, then ripped off six in a row. They won at A&M by 17, won at Missouri at the buzzer, then did the same at Rupp. They spanked Arkansas in Gainesville. But their two conference losses? At Ole Miss (11-10 overall), then to South Carolina in Gainesville. The Gators are a five seed in the matrix; they’ll be around.
• Kentucky too. Back-to-back losses two weeks ago put the Cats out of the Top 25, but a win at #7 West Virginia featuring a 17-point comeback solved that problem. In John Calipari’s previous eight seasons at Kentucky, his teams have either been juggernauts by tournament time (three number one seeds and a two last year) or still capable of maturing at the right time to make a run (Final Four appearances as a four and eight seed, plus another four seed and one NIT). This team won’t see the top two lines of the bracket, but what they did at West Virginia shows they’ll still be capable of making that run from further down; they’re a five seed in the latest matrix.

Bubble In (for now)

• Arkansas is a nine seed in the Bracket Matrix. RPI (26) likes them more than KenPom (47). The Razorbacks still have two games with Texas A&M, a visit from Kentucky, and a trip to Alabama on the schedule. But, having already lost to Mississippi State and LSU, consistency may be the biggest thing between them and the bracket. They’re at A&M tonight.
• Alabama is also a nine seed in the matrix, and scored a huge resume win over Oklahoma in the challenge. The Tide also have an advantage in RPI (29) over KenPom (56). They’re tied for third in the SEC right now with the Vols and Cats at 5-3, but their schedule is murderous down the stretch. Their last 10 games include Florida twice, visits from the Vols, Arkansas, and Missouri, plus road trips to Kentucky, Auburn, and Texas A&M. If this team gets in, they’ll deserve it.
• Texas A&M continues to live on the right side of the line thanks to their pre-conference resume. A 10 seed in the latest matrix, the Aggies are 2-7 since being ranked fifth in the nation. KenPom still really likes them at 35th, and their RPI agrees at 36th. Can the ship be righted?

Bubble Out (for now)

• Missouri is in the first four out in the matrix. But the Tigers have lost three in a row since beating Tennessee, all by double digits, and now they’re at Alabama and vs Kentucky back-to-back. It’s still good progress for a program that won eight SEC games in the last three years, but Cuonzo Martin will need more of that February magic to get this team in the field.
• South Carolina is in the next four out. The Gamecocks are 70th in KenPom and 56th in RPI, but did beat Kentucky and Florida already. Like Alabama, their schedule gives them all the opportunity they need. After hosting Mississippi State tomorrow, Carolina is at A&M, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Tennessee, vs Auburn. They’re also at Auburn in the season finale. The Gamecocks are very much in control of their own destiny.
• Georgia looked great at 11-3 (2-1) coming off a win over Alabama. Since then they’re 1-5, the lone victory by one point over LSU. They’ve still got two with Florida (starting tonight in Athens) and two with Tennessee, plus a visit from Auburn. But the margin of error is thin; the Dawgs could be out of the hunt before Tennessee sees them the first time on February 17.
• LSU is likely to vanish from this conversation after dismissing two players and suspending two others, leaving them with seven scholarship options against Tennessee on Wednesday in Knoxville. Back-to-back wins at Texas A&M and Arkansas put them in a few brackets, but they’ve not followed up with any wins of note and would need something like an 8-2 finish just to have a Top 50 RPI.

The SEC has never put seven teams in the NCAA Tournament. Right now the Bracket Matrix has seven in and Missouri just out. The league has a lot to be proud of to this point; now we’ll see who can separate themselves in the final 10 games.

Tennessee was 14-5 entering today, but got there without any start-to-finish statements against major conference foes. The Vols ran away from Wake Forest in the final eight minutes, slowly pulled away from Texas A&M, and survived a furious rally from Vanderbilt after a 20-point lead earlier this week. But there was little relaxation available for much of those games.

Today wasn’t technically start-to-finish: Iowa State got out to a 12-5 lead in the first six minutes, denying the ball to Grant Williams and frustrating Tennessee’s offense. The Vols put more guards on the floor and started taking the threes the Cyclones were giving them.

And in the game’s final 34 minutes, Tennessee outscored Iowa State 63-33.

The lead was 12 by halftime, then the Vols outscored ISU by 11 in the second half. The Cyclones, weak in defending threes all year, watched Tennessee take a season-high 30 of them, knocking down a dozen (40%). Jordan Bowden was a chilly 1-of-4, but Lamonte Turner hit 6-of-9 and James Daniel added 3-of-7. And the Vols continued to share the ball well, scoring 14 assists on 24 made field goals. Tennessee made 12 two-point shots, 12 three-point shots, and eight free throws.

Meanwhile, Iowa State struggled from everywhere against Tennessee’s defense.

per the press room, 45 is the fewest points Iowa State has ever scored at Hilton Coliseum and the fewest scored in a home game since 1959.

Lowest scoring game for Iowa State since 2008.

— @GrantRamey (@GrantRamey) January 27, 2018

The defense was good, but the Cyclones also went 7-of-17 (41.2%) from the free throw line.

We hadn’t seen it much under Rick Barnes, but it’s good to know this team had this kind of blowout in them, and on the road. It earns Tennessee a Top 10 slot in KenPom, eighth overall and passing Auburn for the moment to re-take the top spot in the SEC. With ten games to go, the Vols continue to play themselves up the seed line, and emphatically so today.

Opportunity knocks for the SEC tomorrow, and particularly hard for a handful of bubble teams. The Big 12 has five teams in Ken Pomeroy’s Top 20 and three more in the Top 40. They lead the nation in conference RPI with a ridiculous .863 winning percentage (101 wins with just 16 losses) in non-conference play. But with an out-of-conference strength of schedule ranking just 16th out of 32 conferences, tomorrow may be the toughest non-conference test for several non-marquee Big 12 schools.

This continues to be the best SEC of at least a decade, but some clear divisions are beginning to appear. Auburn and Tennessee are in the Top 15 in both KenPom and RPI; Kentucky and Florida may be frustrating fans a little this week but both are in good shape. Then there’s chaos in bubble town: Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri, and Texas A&M are all a nine or ten seed in the latest Bracket Matrix, with Georgia in the first four out. LSU and South Carolina – teams well off the NCAA radar when conference play began – are playing themselves into the conversation. There is simply no such thing as an afterthought in this league.

The bad news for the SEC in looking to win the challenge tomorrow:  Auburn isn’t in it this year, and neither is Missouri or LSU. Vanderbilt hosts TCU in a one degree of separation game for Jamie Dixon, while Ole Miss is at Texas. The SEC will be a significant underdog in both of those games. But there are games that can make a serious difference for South Carolina (vs #14 Texas Tech), Alabama (vs #12 Oklahoma), and Texas A&M (at #5 Kansas).

Is there such a thing as a bad team in the nation’s best conference? Tennessee gets to find out.

Last year Iowa State was a five seed in the NCAA Tournament, losing to Purdue in the second round by four points. But they lost their top four scorers and started the year getting blown out by Missouri (74-59) and Milwaukee (74-56) in one degree of Bruce Pearl games. Then they won nine in a row en route to conference play.

After a blowout home loss to Kansas State, the Cyclones were feisty in defeat: overtime losses to Texas and at Oklahoma State, then a five point loss at Kansas. In the last two weeks, they have avoided close games like the plague: beat Baylor by 10, lost at TCU by 23, beat Texas Tech by 18, lost at Texas by 16.

What Iowa State does well:

• Guards who let it fly. Lindell Wigginton and Donovan Jackson are 6’2″ and unafraid: between them they average 13.1 threes attempted per game. And they’re not just volume shooters: Wigginton shoots 43% from the arc, Jackson 42%. Nick Babb is the distributor with 7.2 assists per game.
• Ball security. Iowa State is 59th nationally in turnover percentage, giving it away on just 14.6% of their possessions.
• Free throw shooting. The Cyclones shoot 73.2% from the line, and Donovan Jackson is one of the best free throw shooters in the country at 40-of-43 (93%) on the year. They also defend without fouling, allowing the 11th fewest free throw attempts in college basketball this year.

What Tennessee can do to win:

• Wear them down. This isn’t just a nine-man rotation, it’s essentially a nine-man roster. Their pace isn’t slow (139th nationally), but I’ll be curious to see if Tennessee tries to speed them up. Nick Babb has an amazing stat line of 12.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 7.2 assists per game, but it comes in nearly 38 minutes of work every night.
• Good looks from three. And they’re available against Iowa State, 222nd nationally in three-point percentage defense. Assist percentage and three-point shooting continue to be the best predictors of success for Tennessee.
• Take the crowd out early. This is the first year we’ve seen Tennessee as a ranked team in a non-conference road game since 2011, which means it’s the first time we’ve seen these Vols wear the target associated with a meaningful win for the home team. The Vols have traveled extremely well and not allowed teams like Wake Forest and Georgia Tech to find that win. Against an Iowa State team recently familiar with blowing out or getting blown out, the Vols need to make sure it’s going to be the latter Saturday as soon as possible.

Saturday, 4:00 PM ET, ESPNU. Go Vols.

Tennessee raced out to a huge early and sleepy 20-point lead before nearly coasting over the shoulder against Vanderbilt tonight. Fortunately, the rumble strip jarred them awake just in time to finally seal the deal, 67-62 over the Commodores.

It really wasn’t close at all for much of the game, as the Vols’ tenacious defense stifled Vandy and held them to a woeful 15 first half points. It was just more of the same to being the second, with Tennessee extending the lead to 41-21 with 14:28 left in the game.

Cue Riley LaChance.

After a teammate’s layup and a couple of free throws, Vandy’s LaChance found his three-point range. After going 0-3 from the arc in the first half, he hit 4-6 in the second, and scored 15 straight points for Vanderbilt over a three-minute stretch. At that point, Tennessee started sprinting at him when and wherever he had the ball, which opened up huge lanes leading directly to the basket and multiple opportunities for assists to open teammates. By the time the clock hit 7:06, the ‘Dores had cut the Vols lead from 20 to 4.

Cue the rumble strip.

Admiral Schofield shook everyone awake and hit two free throws, but then everyone on both teams went cold and clunky for a time. Vandy resorted to hack-a-Shaq on Grant Williams, and Williams mostly made them pay. Still, the lead was down to only two points with 1:19 left after a Jeff Roberson free throw.

Cue the woo. And the whew.

On the next possession, Schofield drove to the basket, drew a double team, and passed outside to Lamonte Turner, who hit a clutch three and extended the Vols lead to 63-58. LaChance missed a well-defended three-point attempt, and Schofield and Jordan Bowden raced to the other end for a layup and a 7-point lead. From there, the foul fest was on, and Tennessee eased into the garage safe and sound at 67-62.

Bowden silenced talk of any shooting slump and led the team with 19 points on 6-10 shooting (5-7 from three), and Williams was just behind him with 18. Other than that, it was a team effort, although you shouldn’t be surprised if Derrick Walker starts to see more minutes, as he’s becoming more and more reliable and effective near the basket.

The Vols move to 14-5 overall and 5-3 in the SEC. Next up is a trip to Iowa State on Saturday at 4 p.m. on ESPNU.

Go Vols.

 

 

 

 

Tennessee is capable of winning in so many different ways, it’s hard to create a formula for their success. Last year assists were the go-to stat: the only way the Vols were getting good offense was through good ball movement, and if that didn’t happen they didn’t defend well enough to make up the difference. Tennessee is still strong here (12th nationally in assist percentage, fourth among power conference teams), but that stat is less predictive of success this season: the Vols beat Purdue and South Carolina while assisting on less than half of their makes.

But that stat informs what has become Tennessee’s other leading indicator of success:  three-point shooting.

The Vols don’t rely on the three the way more and more teams are doing. Tennessee is 291st nationally in three-pointers attempted, averaging 20.4 per game. But the Vols are 55th nationally in percentage, hitting 38.3% from three on the year. Threes are a function of the offense, not the offense itself, and Tennessee hits a higher percentage largely because their ball movement generates good looks.

Of the five players who average at least two attempts per game, only Lamonte Turner shoots less than 37%. There’s been plenty of talk about Jordan Bowden shooting more (still at 51.7% on the year despite an 0-for-7 stretch last week), but Tennessee’s patience is one of the reasons he’s shooting so well to begin with. James Daniel (37.5%), Jordan Bone (40.5%), and Admiral Schofield (43.4%) are all reliable targets as well.

Good ball movement leads to more assists, especially when you’ve got such a productive option in the paint in Grant Williams. And more of those assists are coming because the Vols are getting and hitting open threes.

The two best predictors of Tennessee’s success, then:

• The Vols are 9-0 when at least 64% of their made baskets come off an assist, 4-5 when they don’t.
• The Vols are 10-1 when shooting at least 36.4% from three, 3-4 when they don’t.

And the one can cover the sins of the other. Two of Tennessee’s lowest assist percentage wins were at Vanderbilt (43.3%) and South Carolina (43.5%). But the Vols shot 53.8% from the arc in Nashville and 45.5% in Columbia. Likewise, the Vols shot just 29.4% from the arc against Texas A&M and 36.4% against Kentucky, but assisted on 64% of their made shots against the Aggies and a staggering 92% against the Wildcats.

And when all else fails, the Vols can still win with defense:  Tennessee was average in both against Purdue (39.1% from the arc, 48.3% assist percentage), but held the Boilermakers to 37.3% from the floor and got the win in overtime.

A dozen games remain in the regular season; there’s plenty of time for three-point shooting to go up or down. But this continues to be a well-coached team that gets shots they like, and knocks them down at a winning rate.

 

Here’s a point we would have made if the Vols lost today:  Tennessee’s next three SEC games are at home against the only three teams in the league with an RPI of 100+ (Vanderbilt, LSU, Ole Miss). Thrown in for fun is a road trip to Ames, Iowa to face the only Big 12 team outside the Top 65 in KenPom. The Vols are currently first in strength of schedule in those same ratings. After the warm-ups against Presbyterian and High Point, 11 of Tennessee’s last 16 games were against teams projected to finish in the RPI Top 100, eight in the Top 50. We’re due a break.

But at the end of the nation’s most difficult first three-fifths of the season, Tennessee found one more win. They did it on the road while holding a lead of less than eight points for the final 27 minutes, yet never fell behind. And Tennessee’s 13th win came by yet another new method: more points from the bench (39) than the starters (31).

Twenty-five of those came from Lamonte Turner, along with six rebounds. That part isn’t new:  he had 17 against Purdue, 24 at Georgia Tech, and 25 against Auburn. He’s become one of the streakiest players in recent Tennessee history: he was 1-of-6 against Missouri and 1-of-5 from the arc, then 6-of-9 today and 3-of-3 from three. The Vols have beaten good teams while he was cold – he was 2-of-11 against Kentucky – but don’t beat Purdue or the Gamecocks today without him. He’s one of those guys that could have a lot to do with the length of Tennessee’s stay come tournament time.

The newness today came from Derrick Walker, a sentence you’re as surprised to read as I am to type. Walker, a true freshman, averages six minutes per game and had only played more than ten thrice. His season high was 14 minutes. Today:  5-of-5 from the floor, 10 points, and four rebounds in 25 minutes. He doubled his previous career high in scoring.

The push-and-pull led to John Fulkerson not coming in and Kyle Alexander, who had 26 points in the last two games, playing just 14 minutes today. There was no Jalen Johnson, but Yves Pons got his first action since Wake Forest and ended up playing a dozen minutes, with an important putback for his first SEC points.

This is Tennessee: you’re going to get 15+ from Grant Williams, and if the other team isn’t physical on the interior he could go off for more. You’re going to get double figures from Admiral Schofield, who is quietly shooting 43.4% from the arc. One of the guards is probably going to play well (and when they don’t, you get Missouri). The Vols are going to share the ball well. And whoever is seeing the most minutes outside of Williams and Schofield on a given night is probably whoever is defending most effectively.

Against great competition, the Vols have won scoring 92 and scoring 66. They have bested elite size from Purdue and Texas A&M and elite athleticism from Kentucky. They have won at Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina; their other two road games are an overtime loss at Arkansas and a four-point loss at Missouri. This team travels. This team is good.

Here’s a question; not a concern, just a question:  does Tennessee need a clearer idea of who represents its best basketball by tournament time?

Does Barnes want/hope one of Bone, Turner, and Daniel to separate himself? Those three average almost identical minutes on the year, but game-to-game it can vary wildly. Today: Turner 32 minutes, Daniel 22, Bone 16. What about Alexander, Walker, and/or Fulkerson in the post?

The messaging has been consistent all year on having a dozen starters or whatever. And this may, in fact, already be Tennessee’s best basketball. The Vols are 14th in KenPom with a roster picked to finish 13th in the SEC. No complaints here.

They won’t even necessarily need to be better over the next couple of weeks, just consistent. But we do have memories around here of Bruce Pearl’s 2008 team still looking for a point guard heading into the bracket, and the 2010 team suddenly becoming Final Four material when Brian Williams returned to the lineup in late February. Barnes surely wants his team to continue to improve; will that improvement include more definitive answers at guard at in the post?

Either way, the Vols have already proven themselves capable of winning multiple ways against multiple tough opponents. Today was just the latest example.

 

The Vols dropped a tough one at Missouri, where holding the Tigers without a field goal for the last 6:47 wasn’t quite enough to overcome 24% from the arc and 62% from the free throw line. Tennessee goes to 12-5 (3-3), but a road loss to a quality team like Mizzou doesn’t hurt at all in KenPom (where the Vols remain 13th) and RPI (where the Vols are 14th).

There are eight SEC teams in the KenPom Top 50; the same eight are in the RPI Top 40. The Vols still lead the SEC in the former, while trailing Auburn and Kentucky in the latter. Just six games into conference play, the Vols have already faced five of those Top 50 teams. Only three such games remain:  at Kentucky and at Alabama back-to-back in early February, and a visit from Florida on February 21.

Tennessee has ten other games between now and the SEC Tournament. In the best SEC of at least this decade, which means there is no such thing as easy. Vanderbilt has fallen out of the KenPom Top 100, but the rest of the league is in the Top 85. It will not be easy…but it will be easier.

Right now will probably be as high as Tennessee’s strength of schedule goes this season. It ranks second nationally in KenPom and fourth in RPI, where it is projected to finish 22nd. The Vols already have quality wins over Purdue and Kentucky, plus Texas A&M could still find their way back onto that list. When the case is being made for Tennessee on Selection Sunday, it will sound a lot like this.

Like last year, the Vols already have the details they need; the raw win total is all that remains between Tennessee and the bracket. Last year the Vols got in the bracket conversation with their 12th win, beating Kansas State four days after knocking off #4 Kentucky. The difference:  last year the Vols started 12-9. This year they were 12-4 before falling at Mizzou.

Anxiety about getting in is easy to understand after missing both the NCAA and NIT the last three years. RPI Forecast suggests the Vols would be in business there at 18-12 (8-10 or 9-9 with a loss at Iowa State). But Tennessee’s resume to this point – not just the strength of schedule but the quality wins with no bad losses – suggests we can dream a little bigger.

Coming through this front-loaded portion of the SEC schedule at 3-3 keeps Tennessee’s pre-conference goals alive:  compete for the league title, and earn a favorable seed in the NCAA Tournament. When it comes to seeding, eight or better is great for getting through the first round, but what you really want is six or better to stay away from the truly elite teams in the second round. The Vols may not be one of those truly elite teams themselves, but everything we’ve seen from this team against this schedule so far makes me think Tennessee can be a 4-6 seed. Most of the Bracket Matrix agrees.

After facing so many good teams in the first 17 games in building their case, the challenge in these final 13 games becomes consistency. That starts at South Carolina on Saturday, 68th in KenPom fresh off a win over Kentucky. The Gamecocks are the worst shooting team in league play, but are first at getting to the free throw line (thanks in large part to FoulFest 2018 against Kentucky on Tuesday) and first in offensive rebounds. We could say it’s another game where effort will be essential, but again, that’s every night now in this league. The Vols have been good enough to build a high-seed resume against one of the nation’s most difficult schedules. Now can they be consistent enough to get the rest of the way there?

Somewhere in dreams, Bruce Pearl still wears an orange blazer and the Vols never missed an NCAA Tournament. Perhaps a little further west in dreams, Rick Barnes still wears that other shade of orange and his teams kept finding their way into the tournament’s second weekend.

The nearly-impossible task put before whoever would follow Pearl was to keep the dream alive. Tennessee made 13 NCAA Tournaments in the bracket’s first 67 years, then six in a row under Pearl. The Vols went to a single Sweet 16 in the 64-team field from 1985-2005, then went to three under Pearl. They won the SEC outright, made the program’s first Elite Eight, and even spent a week at number one. It was a good dream.

It didn’t turn out to be Cuonzo Martin’s dream; his tenure remains a Rorschach test for Tennessee fans. So was his second year at Cal, two seasons ago, when he took the Golden Bears to their highest seed in tournament history, then lost in the first round to 13-seed Hawaii while down two starters and an assistant coach. We tend to see what we want to see.

One of the most helpful lenses in judging a college basketball team is Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. Unsurprisingly, they rate Bruce Pearl’s 2008 squad as the best of his tenure. What is surprising: not only was Cuonzo Martin’s last Tennessee team rated higher than all of Pearl’s, but Barnes’ team this year is giving them a run for their money:

• 2008: +22.17 adjusted efficiency, 13th nationally
• 2014: +23.69, 10th
• 2018: +21.77, 13th

The process was complicated, but the end result in 2014 finished closer to the mountaintop than any Tennessee team other than Pearl’s run to the Elite Eight in 2010. We’re a long way from the end result right now, but this Tennessee team has a higher KenPom rating than all of Pearl’s except 2008. Missing both the NCAA’s and the NIT the last three years trained us to not get ahead of ourselves, to keep doing the math on how many wins the Vols need just to get in the bracket. But KenPom’s math suggests this is far more than a bubble team.

And this year’s process runs through Cuonzo and CoMo tonight.

Dreams, by definition, end. Bruce Pearl was the architect of his own demise in Knoxville. Rick Barnes made five Sweet 16’s, three Elite Eight’s, and a Final Four from 2002-08. He sent 17 Longhorns to the NBA Draft in his 15-year stint in Austin, including five one-and-dones. But Texas never made it past the second round in Barnes’ last seven seasons.

I don’t know what Cuonzo’s dream is; I’m not sure he would speak in those terms anyway. But, when you listen to him talk about why he’s at Missouri in this outstanding piece from S.L. Price at Sports Illustrated, he might not be far from it.

This is the good news at the tail end of a decade of highs, lows, and complex emotions for Tennessee basketball and its coaches. Bruce Pearl didn’t find the same magic at Auburn in year one, but in year four his Tigers are 16-1 and headed for their first NCAA Tournament in 15 years. Cuonzo Martin took over a Missouri program that was 27-68 (8-46) under Kim Anderson, signed the nation’s best player only to lose him to injury two minutes into the season, and is still 12-5 (2-2). And Rick Barnes has stayed away from one-and-dones in Knoxville, but is putting together a season on pace to rival his predecessors’ best work.

Dreams are great. But reality, for all three men, is pretty great right now too.