Category Archives: Basketball

Five of Tennessee’s first six conference games were against what should be NCAA Tournament teams. We thought there would be only two others after that, three if Alabama got its act together. But here, in the final week of the regular season, the league has one more surprise in store.

Mississippi State played a bunch of nobodies in an 8-0 start, then went to Cincinnati and lost by 15. A 2-5 start in league play made them an afterthought; they could still aspire to the program’s first NIT appearance since 2012.

But then came four wins in a row, including home victories over Missouri and Alabama. They lost the return trip to CoMo in overtime, then lost by one at Vanderbilt. But they’ve since won three straight, including a huge 12-point win at Texas A&M and an overtime victory against South Carolina. Now the Bulldogs are 21-8 (9-7), 50th in KenPom and 62nd in RPI. This is very much a bubble team, which means this is very much a game the Bulldogs need.

What Mississippi State does well:

• Defensive Efficiency: MSU is 28th in KenPom’s defensive ratings, 35th in effective field goal percentage allowed. They’ve been good at this all year.
• Getting hot at the right time: Five of MSU’s six highest-scoring games in league play have been in February. They actually lost scoring 80+ against Missouri (in overtime) and Vanderbilt, then put 79 on Ole Miss and 93 on Texas A&M on the road. They’re balanced at their best: Quinndary Weatherspoon scores 14.7 per game and brother Nick adds 11.1, but increased production from Tyson Carter and Abdul Ado has fueled their most recent run.
• Shot blocking: Ado is 6’11” and 55th nationally in block percentage, and 6’10” Aric Holman is 73rd in the same stat. MSU sometimes puts both on the floor at the same time, which could create difficult match-ups and opportunities for Tennessee on the block.

What Tennessee can do to win:

• Encourage MSU to shoot threes: The Bulldogs have hit better than 40% from the arc just five times this year. Mississippi State shoots 31.2% from the arc on the year (333rd of 351 nationally) and 30.8% in conference play (13th).
• Don’t be afraid to defend aggressively: The Bulldogs also suffer at the charity stripe, 68.6% on the year (277th) and 69.9% in conference play (10th). They’re not particularly good at getting to the line either. I don’t think it’s in Tennessee’s best interests to do anything to encourage Grant Williams to foul more often, but the rest of the lineup? Might be a good night to get up in their face.
• Take especially good care of the basketball: The Bulldogs force a steal on 9.8% of opponent possessions, 84th nationally. And they’re just as good at not turning it over themselves, which means possessions will be especially valuable. Mississippi State is 14-2 when forcing 13+ turnovers, but just 7-6 when forcing 12 or less.

The Bulldogs have lost just once at home this season, to Auburn on January 13. South Carolina just took them to overtime and Alabama lost by just four earlier this month. They also have not faced Kentucky, Florida, or Texas A&M in Starkville. Will the Bulldogs play their way onto the right side of the bubble? Or will Tennessee stay in the race for the SEC title and firm up its chances for a two or three seed?

Early game woo! 7:00 PM ET, SEC Network.

The Vols came out firing in Oxford, building a 16-4 lead in the first six minutes behind four three-pointers. The lead swelled to 29-9, and was still 15 points at halftime.

But the first three minutes of the second half were unkind to Tennessee…or, more appropriately, Tennessee wasn’t kind to itself. Four turnovers in those first three minutes sparked an 11-0 Rebel run, cutting the lead to four.

Tennessee’s defense righted the ship, holding the Rebels scoreless for the next four minutes while the Vols built the lead back to nine. UT would eventually push it to 21, was still up 14 with two minutes to play, and won by eight. The Vols led by double digits for almost 30 minutes. There were only a few truly uncomfortable moments.

What can Tennessee learn from those moments? I think sometimes the offense seems to get stuck in the space between feeding the ball and forcing the ball to Grant Williams. Tennessee’s best basketball plays through #2, and at times the Vols can get him the ball cleanly and let him do his thing (as was the case against Florida). At other times defenses swarm and deny him the ball, and the Vols can clearly fall back on good looks this creates. But when the defense doesn’t show its hand, occasionally the Vols learn the hard way not to force the issue. Many of Tennessee’s turnovers come from ill-advised passes into the post.

The Vols adjusted; again, credit the defense first for stopping the bleeding before the offense got its footing. And credit Admiral Schofield, who gets much of his offense outside the go inside to Grant/kick it out for three routine. Today he had a career-high 25 points on 9-of-14 shooting, along with seven rebounds. While Williams struggled with just six points on the day, Schofield proved the Vols can still win comfortably. Tennessee also got big minutes from Derrick Walker coming back from an ankle injury; he finished with five points and seven rebounds. Walker got some of Kyle Alexander’s duties today, posting up in similar fashion to Williams and executing well.

Ole Miss helped by shooting 1-of-23 from the arc. But despite their struggles early in the second half, Tennessee still finished with 20 assists on 25 made baskets, the fifth time this season the Vols had an assist percentage of 80% or better (and the second time against the Rebels).

The Vols go to 21-7 (11-5), and could lock up a double bye in the SEC Tournament by the end of the day. It’s the best regular season win total since 2010, and they can tie that Elite Eight squad at 23-7 with a pair of wins next week.

Go Vols.

Tennessee begins a short trek through the state of Mississippi today with a game against Ole Miss. The game’s at 1:00 and will be televised on the SEC Network. Online, you can catch it at WatchESPN.

See you in the comments below.

• Tipoff: 1 p.m. ET
• TV: SEC Network
• Online video
• Online audio
• Online stats

Go Vols!

A Twitter List by GamedayRockyTop

 

The Atlanta Tipoff Club announced the 10 semifinalists for the Werner Ladder Naismith Trophy for Men’s College Coach of the Year today, and Tennessee’s Rick Barnes is one of the 10.

Every Vols fan already knows the talking points here, namely that Barnes’ team was picked to finish 13th of 14 teams in the preseason SEC poll and has instead led his team to a 20-7 record and second place in the SEC standings at this point. The Vols are currently 11th in RPI and 15th in KenPom and have been in the Top 25 for 12 straight weeks. Along the way, they’ve beaten Purdue (10th in RPI) and swept Kentucky (16th), and all but one of their losses have come to teams in the Top 40 of the RPI. The other loss came to Georgia on the road, and the Bulldogs are currently 70th in RPI.

Other semifinalists include the following:

• Texas Tech’s Chris Beard;
• Virginia’s Tony Bennett;
• Clemson’s Brad Brownell;
• Cincinnati’s Mick Cronin;
• Ohio State’s Chris Holtmann;
• Xavier’s Chris Mack;
• Purdue’s Matt Painter;
• Auburn’s Bruce Pearl; and
• Villanova’s Jay Wright.

That list will be whittled down to four finalists on March 15, and the winner will be announced on April 1st.

The things we’ve spent all year hoping were true for the SEC are about to be fully realized.

The league record for NCAA Tournament teams is six. Eight are in the most recent Bracket Matrix, and Mississippi State refuses to remove themselves from the conversation to make nine. And it shouldn’t be eight or nine sweating it out: seven of the eight teams currently in the matrix field are a top eight seed.

We began to see this last year, when the four of the league’s five tournament teams were top eight seeds. That hadn’t happened since 2007. This year, if a handful of teams stay on the right side of an 8/9 match-up, we could see twice that many be the higher seed in the first round.

The conversation sometimes drifts to, “Yeah, but there’s no elite team.” I think this is in part because the SEC’s version of elite has been a championship-caliber Kentucky or Florida team for the last decade. The last non-UK/UF team from this league to pull off a one or two seed in the NCAA Tournament was Tennessee 10 years ago. Bruce Pearl might get there again this season. And only Texas A&M two years ago has earned a three seed outside of Kentucky and Florida in this decade. The Vols still have every opportunity to join that list this season.

So no, Auburn and Tennessee won’t be confused for the best of John Calipari and Billy Donovan heading into the tournament. But what the Vols and Tigers are doing is still better than what any other SEC program has done in the last ten years. And they’re doing it in a far deeper league.

Here’s a look at the post-expansion SEC the last six years. (Note: if the formatting is weird on your phone, try viewing it in landscape.)

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
NCAA Teams	3	3	5	3	5	8*
Top 8 Seeds	1	2	2	2	4	7*
KenPom Top 25	2	3	1	3	3	3
KenPom Top 50	3	4	7	4	5	9
KenPom Top 100	9	9	11	11	12	14

(* – projected bids from the Bracket Matrix)

When Missouri and Texas A&M joined the league in 2012-13, the SEC was at its lowest point of this century. But thanks to changes in coaching and scheduling, now in 2018 the league is at its highest point of this century.

Along with an almost-certain record for tournament bids, the basement and the middle are both significantly stronger. In 2013 it wasn’t just five teams outside the KenPom Top 100; three of them were between 197-256. Even last year, truly terrible seasons from Missouri (156 in KenPom) and LSU (172) saw both teams go 2-16 in league play. Two coaching changes later and every team in the league has at least five conference wins with three games to play.

And now the crowd is in the middle. Behind Auburn and Tennessee are six teams at 8-7 in league play, plus LSU at 7-8, plus Texas A&M at 6-9 but almost certainly still headed for the dance floor. Teams like Georgia and South Carolina should find their way to the NIT. And, for the first time, all 14 teams are in the Top 100 in KenPom.

There are still three games left, plenty of time for positioning in such a crowded field. But Tennessee has already earned tremendous praise for getting this far in such a deep league. Earning a double bye in the SEC Tournament is a significant accomplishment. The Vols and the league have much to be proud of.

 

It may not have been the most aesthetically pleasing win of the year, but Tennessee’s 62-57 victory over Florida provided validation on two important points.

One: the Vols handled Florida’s elite guards. The Gators shot 35% from the floor, and 57 points is their second-lowest total on the year. Chiozza finished with a flurry for 11 points and 9 assists, but Koulechov was 3-for-10 and KeVaughn Allen went 0-for-3. It came at the expense of 13 offensive rebounds, but Tennessee relentlessly ran at Florida on the arc, and the Gators hit just 6-of-24.

Teams with great guards have gotten the best of Tennessee several times this season. But tonight, the Vols defended really well for most of the game, and made sure Florida’s penetration didn’t get the best of them. Bone, Turner, and Daniel combined for just 14 points (22.5% of the total, which is still in the sweet spot). But they did a good job defending against solid competition, which bodes well for this team in March.

And the rest of the offense was more than covered by tonight’s second point of validation.

Two: Grant Williams is still a bad man. Coming off his worst game of the season at Georgia, Williams ate Florida’s guard-heavy lineup alive. Despite being burdened with foul trouble, Williams was 8-of-13 from the floor and 7-of-8 at the line for 23 points, along with six rebounds.

The Vols were up 10 with five minutes to play, but Florida kept attacking. Williams responded with Tennessee’s next seven points, keeping the Vols up multiple possessions. And particularly tonight, it didn’t seem to matter where he caught the ball on the floor. He just went right at an undersized defense that had no answers. The most important question when we get to March, especially with increased confidence in Tennessee’s backcourt defense, is what kind of match-ups will Williams see in the bracket. The Vols are good enough to win even when facing teams that do have some kind of answer for him. But Williams is good enough to just take over if teams don’t.

Auburn just keeps winning, but the Vols are now two games up on the six teams tied for third place. A couple of those somebodies are going to play on Thursday in the SEC Tournament. Tennessee is really close to making sure it won’t be them.

This win restored confidence in what the Vols are doing and in their best player, and bolstered it in response to their greatest weakness. Tennessee can shoot threes better than they did tonight, but this win is another reminder that they can do just that even when those shots aren’t falling. And it adds to a resume that should keep the Vols among the top four seeds in both the SEC and the Bracket Matrix with three regular season games to play.

Go Vols. Well done.

Tennessee, hoping to pull it all together against some great guards and the last tournament team on their regular season schedule, host the Florida Gators tonight at Thompson-Boling. The game tips at 9:00 and will be televised on ESPN2. Online, you can catch it at WatchESPN.

See you in the comments below.

• Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
• Online video
• Online audio
• Online stats

Go Vols!

A Twitter List by GamedayRockyTop

 

We get as much mileage as we can out of the “picked to finish 13th in the SEC” narrative, but that story really changed as soon as the Vols beat Purdue. That was 91 days ago. Tennessee then increased its tournament profile in the most boring way possible: competitive losses to Villanova and North Carolina, wins over everyone else in the non-conference. It looks like that will now include one additional victory over a tournament team (NC State), but at the time there was no additional earth-shattering moment after Purdue. The Vols beat all the teams they should beat, and almost beat two teams better than them.

But after a brief set of questions following near misses with Arkansas and Auburn to open SEC play, the Vols provided answers almost every night. Tennessee won nine of its next ten games in what might be the deepest SEC of all-time, beating Texas A&M and sweeping Kentucky. They won four road games, losing only at Missouri by four. It was, and is, the sort of streak that creates an expectation and then lives up to it.

Meanwhile, Auburn did basically the same thing, which kept the SEC title just out of reach. Tennessee’s RPI has hovered between 10-20 for six weeks. Even though it seems strange to say with that whole picked-13th past, Tennessee has been this good for a while now.

So good for so long, in fact, we flirted with one-seed talk the same week we won at Rupp Arena. Did the Vols fly a little too close to the sun? We’ll find out in March. But a 28-point loss at Alabama and what should be the season’s first loss to a non-tournament team at Georgia both backed the Vols down the bracket, and raised questions for the first time in almost two months. (By the way, the #nobadlosses still holds up – Georgia wasn’t a “good loss”, but the Dawgs are 66th in RPI in 70th in KenPom. That’s an NIT team.)

A team with Tennessee’s profile – consistent all year but an elite win or two shy from longer one-seed conversations – feels like a baseball team seven games up in the wild card in early August. There’s still work to do, and it sucks you can’t win the division, but this team is going to the playoffs with every chance to advance. That’s the end result, and you know it a few miles away from the bracket. A team like that can get lost in the grind for a minute.

Is that what’s happened to Tennessee these last few days, or are there legitimate concerns? Here with some answers are the Florida Gators.

Florida runs a particularly efficient offense: shoot threes, make free throws, don’t turn it over. Virginia Tech transfer Jalen Hudson and Rice transfer Egor Koulechov joined Chris Chiozza and KeVaughn Allen in this guard-heavy lineup, and these dudes will let it fly. The Gators are fourth in the SEC in threes attempted and 70th nationally in three-point percentage; Hudson shoots 39.5% and Koulechov 42%. They shoot 73.8% from the line, and most of all, they take great care of the basketball. Florida is fourth nationally in turnover percentage, giving the ball away on just 14.3% of its possessions.

Florida has also been a tad unlucky, especially when it comes to opponent free throw shooting. They lost to Duke by three when the Blue Devils went 19-of-20 at the line, and at Vanderbilt by three when the Commodores went 22-of-24. Ole Miss, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida State all beat the Gators while shooting better than 81% at the line.

Much of Tennessee’s focus right now is on offensive production and rebounding, but Tennessee’s most consistent weakness has been stopping great guards. Florida provides another opportunity for Rick Barnes’s squad to show their work.

On the other side of this one is a road trip through the state of Mississippi and another shot at Georgia in Knoxville. It’s the last test against a tournament team before the SEC Tournament, and will either cast our vision back toward the bracket with a win, or deeper into what makes this team tick with a loss.

9:00 PM ET, but hey, we made it to ESPN2! Have I mentioned we still have the television schedule of a team picked to finish 13th?

Go Vols.

 

Tennessee basketball, presented an opportunity to inch closer to an Auburn team that had lost earlier in the day at South Carolina, instead blew their own road game at Georgia this evening, losing 73-62. Fortunately for Tennessee, they weren’t the only SEC team to lose on the road today, as all six tournament teams that traveled lost.

The Bulldogs used a couple of second half runs to secure the victory, starting the second period with a 10-2 run and then using an 8-2 run to seal the deal under the ten minute mark after the Vols had cut the lead to 2.

Tennessee had one last gasp when Lamonte Turner buried a three with 1:11 remaining and closed the gap to two possessions, but Georgia was able to pull away and hit their free throws when the Vols turned to desperation fouls.

Kyle Alexander posted his second career double-double, finishing with 10 points and 13 rebounds. Lamonte Turner led the way on the scored board with 14 points, and Jordan Bowden and Admiral Schofield had 13 and 11, respectively. Grant Williams was held to 5 points and four rebounds. He was 1-8 from the field.

Meanwhile, the Vols allowed SEC Player of the Year candidate Yante Maten to score 19 points and grab five rebounds and allowed Derek Ogbeide to earn a double-double dominating the paint.

Tennessee hosts Florida Wednesday night at 9:00 p.m. on ESPN2.

Five to go. Auburn just keeps winning, still two up on the Vols. The Tigers have a pair of games with South Carolina book-ending three tests against likely NCAA Tournament teams (Alabama, at Florida, at Arkansas). Tennessee has just one such test with Florida, plus two with Georgia and a quick trip through the state of Mississippi. It’s not over, but it’s close.

The larger concern for Tennessee is (re?)discovering its best basketball with March on the horizon. A six-game winning streak and whispers of a one seed came crashing down in a 28-point loss at Alabama, and the Vols nearly squandered a pair of double-digit leads against South Carolina in Knoxville.

Tennessee is still 13th in KenPom and RPI, and right on the 3/4 seed line in the Bracket Matrix. It’s been an amazing year. How can the Vols work to ensure their best basketball isn’t behind them?

A couple of benchmarks still hold up: Tennessee is 14-1 when shooting better than 36% from the arc, 17-3 when getting an assist on at least 45% of their made baskets. Share the ball, make threes, win the game. But I think what really makes Tennessee hum goes deeper than that.

Grant Williams averages 16.2 points per game, 21.3% of Tennessee’s scoring load. The Vols don’t go as he goes – Texas A&M and Iowa State are the only power conference teams to hold him to single digits, and Tennessee won both those games – but they do go to him first. Tennessee’s offense also looks to create opportunities for Admiral Schofield, next in scoring at 12.3 per game.

Those two are generally consistent in both wins and losses. The difference between victory and defeat for Tennessee is most often what the rest of the team does. And when the Vols are at their best, the rest of the team does two things really well (all this data is compiled from Sports Reference).

One: Jordan Bowden hits threes. Tennessee is 14-3 when Bowden hits at least one three, and 12-1 when he scores in double digits. The Vols looked to him like never before against South Carolina, and he delivered: 4-of-10 from the arc and 14 points. That performance broke a chilly 3-for-20 streak in the previous five games. Bowden is still one of the league’s best shooters at 44.2% from the arc. When defenses have to account for him on the perimeter, everything runs better in Tennessee’s offense.

Two, Tennessee is at its best when its guards produce, but not too much. You never know who is going to be the one on any given night between Jordan Bone, James Daniel, and Lamonte Turner. But there is a statistical sweet spot for the three combined:

• When Bone, Daniel, and Turner account for less than 20% of Tennessee’s points, the Vols are 3-2. Two of those three wins are Presbyterian and Furman. The two losses are UT’s worst offensive performances of the year: at Missouri and at Alabama. Those are the only two times the Vols have scored less than 60 points; Tennessee’s three guards combined for 10 points in Tuscaloosa, 11 in CoMo.
• When Bone, Daniel, and Turner account for more than 50% of Tennessee’s points, the Vols are 1-2. The one win was at Iowa State, which Tennessee’s defense gets credit for as much as anything else. The two losses are Arkansas and Auburn, late-game shootouts fueled by foul trouble and great guard play on the other bench. This team is not built to win playing through its guards first.
• When Bone, Daniel and Turner account for 21-49% of Tennessee’s points, the Vols are 15-2. And the two losses are no-shame affairs to Villanova and North Carolina. All of Tennessee’s best wins – Kentucky x2, Texas A&M, Purdue, NC State – are in this realm. Their average contribution is around 31%. Here are their game-by-game contributions.

The Vols are still eighth in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings. They’re good enough to win even when shots aren’t falling. But Tennessee’s best basketball is a balanced effort from Williams, Schofield, Bowden from the arc, and getting just enough (but not too much) from its three guards. And this group of six players all contribute to Tennessee’s stellar assist percentage: all of them average between 1.5 and and 3.5 assists per game.

These last five games offer a last chance to improve before the stakes are raised. The strength of the league means the SEC Tournament quarterfinals will look a lot like the second round of the NCAA Tournament. If there are no upsets on Thursday in St. Louis, Friday could feature eight tournament-bound teams; seven of them are an eight seed or better in the latest Bracket Matrix. The Vols could finish second in the league and face Kentucky in their first game of the SEC Tournament. Nothing will be easy.

How easy will tomorrow’s test at Georgia be? The Dawgs have two wins in their last eight games, but both are against Florida. Mark Fox might be coaching for his job; Georgia is 14-11 but should miss the NCAA Tournament for the seventh time in his nine years. Winning really big in football can make one a little more hungry in basketball.

Their struggles may also keep Yante Maten from SEC Player of the Year, despite averaging 19.5 points and and 8.7 rebounds in one of the slowest offenses in college basketball. The Dawgs are also one of the worst teams in the nation at forcing turnovers. It could be a good opportunity for Tennessee’s offense to get back in its groove.

6:00 PM Saturday, SEC Network. Go Vols.