Looking Ahead to 2018-2019 II: 2017-18 Bench Can Take 2018-19 Team to Next Level

Looking at Tennessee’s projected roster for the 2018-2019 basketball season, it is truly striking how young the team is and therefore how much improvement can be expected. Further illustrating that fact is that all but one of the returning bench players were freshmen (true or redshirt), this past season and two of them will in fact be redshirt sophomores. After looking at what the Vols’ starters, along with the SEC Sixth Man of the Year, can do to improve their games during the offseason, it’s time to take a look at what we might expect from each of the returning bench players after an offseason of development

Derrick Walker

Walker emerged as an integral piece of this past season’s team, showing outstanding court awareness and passing ability to go with a soft touch around the rim and a physicality that matched up with his brawny physique.  However, he struggled mightily on the defensive end against Loyola, where his lack of foot speed and overall conditioning were weaknesses that the Ramblers exploited time and again.  That said, in that same game he showed some skills that make you think he’s got All-SEC potential down the line – tenaciously fighting for multiple offensive rebounds using his motor and bulk and making a midrange jumper that showed off his nice shooting stroke.  An offseason of physical development will likely turn up a much different looking Walker come November – stronger yet leaner and with an improved ability to much more effectively hedge against ball screens out on the perimeter.

Yves Pons

Pons came to Tennessee as a very raw but very tantalizing prospect with uber-athleticism and decent-looking shot.  After getting barely spot minutes for most of the season, he slowly worked his way firmly into the rotation to the point where he was often the first non-guard off the bench for the latter part of February and all of March.   He was physical on the defensive end and used his length, athleticism, and physicality to be able to defend multiple positions. He also expanded his offensive game, going 2-3 on 3-pointers (his one miss being an ill-advised shot against Loyola) and going from instantly passing the ball when he got it on the wing to slashing to the basket in an attempt to make things happen. The play that showed what he can be next season with a full offseason in Knoxville occurred against Wright State when he drove the baseline and made an up and under layup where he made it look like he was playing on an 8-foot goal – he just looked like a beast, and one who was finally figuring things out.  If he can become a legitimate threat to get to the rim from the wing while at the same time honing his three point shot he’ll get more and more minutes at both the 3 and 4 spots

John Fulkerson

Fulkerson has had an up and down season following missing almost a full year of basketball and strength and conditioning after his injury but continued to get minutes deep into the season.  He played quite a bit during Tennessee’s run to the SEC Tournament championship game and then got 15 strong minutes in the Vols big opening game win over Wright State in the NCAA Tournament.  During that stretch Fulkerson displayed the kind of skills that Barnes has liked about him since he camped with the Vols before his senior season of high school: nonstop hustle and a willingness to crash the boards along with some raw but developable post moves.  However, when forced into more than spot duty with Kyle Alexander out against Loyola, Fulkerson’s lack of bulk and overall offensive game was exploited.  He’ll need to fully dedicate himself in the weight room in the offseason to be ready for the rigor of post play at the kind of level Tennessee wants to be playing, while at the same time continuing to hone his post moves to make him a viable if last resort option on the offensive end

Jalen Johnson

Jalen Johnson, the #147 ranked player in his class, came to Tennessee with a rep as a good three-point shooter with explosive leaping ability. Johnson worked to earn some playing time later in the season and showed flashes of the athleticism and shooting that has the staff very excited about his future. He’ll need to continue to get stronger so that he’s not as easily knocked off his spot on dribble drives and at the same time continue to earn Barnes’s trust on the defensive end.  He’s got one of the best combinations of athleticism and length on the team though, so it’s imperative that he start to put it together in order for him to be able to get on the court

Zach Kent

Kent, like Jalen Johnson the season before, was a strategic redshirt for Coach Barnes this past season.  He was ranked in the Top 175 in his class and earned offers over the course of his recruitment from Indiana, Maryland, Notre Dame and Oregon among others.  Kent will bring a skill set that is unique to the team: A 6’11, ~235 lb player with range to 25 feet, Kent will give Barnes tons of options in terms of who he can pair him with – that kind of shooting threat from a PF/C will make teams think twice about double-teaming Grant Williams and Tennessee’s other big men in the paint.  After a year in the weight room Kent should be able to at least hold his own in the post on defense and on the boards, and his ability to spread the floor will open things up inside not just for Volunteer post players but also driving lanes for Tennessee’s slashers

Chris Darrington

Darrington has a real chance to fill in for James Daniel III should Tennessee not fill its last roster spot with a Guard.  A JUCO College All-American, he’s got great length and uses it well on the defensive end.  Darrington came in with a rep as a scorer/shooter, and actually led the team in scoring on the preseason European trip (14.3 points per game over the 3 games).  He subsequently missed most of the preseason with an injury that threw him off, but he came back and played quite well, and quite a bit, earlier in the season – he had 10 assists against both High Point and Mercer.  He also enjoyed his most productive game in Tennessee’s win over Lipscomb (12/9/17), as his 11 points, five assists and three rebounds were all season-highs, and he averaged 13 minutes a game over first 10 OOC games (with a high of 20 against Lipscomb), then 9 and 11 against Arkansas and Auburn.  After that his play fell off and subsequently his minutes did as well.  Likely not coincidentally that happened around the same time as the untimely death of one of his best friends from back home, which threw him into a funk mentally.  Tennessee is searching for another Guard in the 2018 class and hoping it is someone dynamic who can complement what they already have on the roster in Bone/Turner/Bowden.  Regardless of who they add though, Darrington will have a chance to move on from a disappointing individual season and carve out a meaningful role on next season’s team

The Vols will be hoping to add more player to the roster to fill James Daniels III’s spot.  Whether that is a high school player or a graduate transfer remains to be seen, as is whether that player is a Guard or Forward.  What is really exciting though is that no matter who else is added there are already six players on the roster behind the top 6 that together bring a combination of experience, skill, and unique talent to the team, and are just scratching the surface of their games.

Looking Ahead to 2018-2019 I: One Area of Improvement for the Starters

After observing a personal 24-hour rule and mourning not only the actual season-ending loss to Loyola but the missed opportunity it represented, it’s time to look at next season’s roster and forecast how the team can get better to make a run at a repeat SEC Championship and a deeper run in the NCAA Tournament.  As we’ve discussed here, there is at ton of upside to the team based on the fact that there is a lot of talent on the team and a large majority of it is still very young and has a lot of development ahead of it.  There’s also the possibility of adding another player to the roster to take the place of the departing James Daniel III – either a freshman (hopefully the more than likely NBA-bound SG Anfernee Simons) or another grad transfer – that we’ll discuss in more depth soon.  Right now let’s talk about the front end of the returning rotation, meaning the (all 5!) starters and the SEC Sixth Man of the Year, and look at the one main are of improvement each of them can make:

Grant Williams

The reigning SEC Player of the Year will only be a Junior and as one would expect has a pretty solid all-around game.  He’s a brute inside, has nice touch on his midrange jumper (though he misses too many bunnies for my liking), and has great court awareness and does a good job of finding the open man when he’s double teamed.  All that said, the one weapon he could add to his arsenal that could make him much more difficult to defend – and at the same time make the team much harder to stop – is a dependable three-point shot.  Specifically, the top of the key three (think Yaten Maten and how deadly he was from that spot), either within the halfcourt offense or trailing on a secondary break.  The good news is that he already displays good form on his jumpshot and shoots a relatively high percentage from the free throw line.  Not only that, but it’s easy to forget that although he only took 25 three-pointers this season – and made a very poor 3 of them for an ugly 12% (frankly I don’t remember him taking even that many) – he was a more than respectable 12/32 his freshman year, good for 37.5%, most of them coming from the top of the key.  Point being, he has the capability, and though I respect his willingness to play to his strengths inside and at the same time let the better three point shooters take them if he can add this to his game it would make him virtually unstoppable

Admiral Schofield

One could pretty easily make the case that Schofield was the MVP of this past season’s team, and that was before we saw what happened when he left the Loyola game with his second foul five minutes into the game after his 11 points pushed the Vols to a 15-6 early lead. Schofield was a revelation this season, expanding his game to become both a bully inside as well as a very dependable 3-point shooter.  He also added a face-up midrange jumpshot to his arsenal.  You know that no one is going to work on his game harder than Admiral, and after his famous 1000-three pointers per day this past offseason led to his performance from behind the line this season one can be assured he’s going to do the same before next season.  So what can he add to his game to take it to another level?  My take would be that if he can clean up handle to make his slashing game smoother and more effective he would be near impossible to stop at the college level and make himself into a legitimate NBA prospect as a 3 and D slasher who can defend a handful of positions

Jordan Bone

The subject of a lot of frustration to fans and coaches alike due to his inconsistency, Bone had a really good March overall (ask Arkansas in particular) and showed more than a few glimpses of what he can become with some reachable improvement.  Bone is probably one of two guys on the current team (along with Jordan Bowden – see below) who has the physical ability to be an effective one-on-one player that can get to the rim and score when Barnes’s half-court offense doesn’t generate a good look for someone.  He’s so quick and fast that there aren’t many college basketball players who can stay in front of him.  He also somewhat quietly developed a both a pretty solid three-point shot and midrange pullup jumper.  Getting himself to where open three pointers automatic (he’s not going to take contested threes unless it’s the end of the shot clock) and at the same time developing the mentality that he can’t be stopped getting to the rim – and bulking up a bit to be able to finish better through contact – is how Jordan can make tangible improvement.  Finally, Bone has the physical ability to become a defensive stopper/difference maker – simply a guy who cannot be driven by and also as someone who causes turnovers regularly.  The adage about how guard play determines winners in March is uttered ad nauseum for a reason, and Bone is the guy on the team whose improvement is directly linked to that, which is why I’ve taken some liberties with the number of areas of improvement for him

Jordan Bowden

Bowden brings a lot to the court, including solid defense and excellent rebounding for his position.  He was also one of the best three-point shooters in the country throughout the entire out of conference slate; unfortunately, that touch left him for much of the SEC season and even into March.  That said, he did make a couple of threes in the NCAA Tournament, including a huge corner three during Tennessee’s furious late-game comeback against Loyola, and I am operating under the assumption that he can get himself to a solid 40%+ shooter from deep with another offseason of work and development.  Where his game can take another step is in the halfcourt, tightening up his handle and, maybe importantly, developing an attacking mentality, such that when he catches the ball either on the wing or in the paint off of a curl, he’s looking to get to the rim and finish.  He must get stronger and quicker to do that, but the ability is clearly there, and with the threat of the catch and shoot three pointer in the opponent’s scouting report he should be able to easily get a first step on his defender on his way to the basket.

Kyle Alexander

Oh how Kyle was missed on Saturday against Loyola. While his offense can be hit or miss, the rim protection he brings to the table is simply unmatched by the backup big men on the team.  Without Alexander at the back of the defense Tennessee’s wings had to help on drives, which led to multiple kick-out three pointers.  The good news is that Kyle will be back to anchor the defense once again, likely with more size and explosiveness after another offseason of physical development.  And while he’s most often the 5th option on offense, if he can become a consistent shooter that would give Tennessee that many more options on offense.  Frankly, if Kyle wants to be an NBA player he would be wise to follow Admiral’s lead and work on his three point shot.  Thin 6’11 rim protectors are valuable in the NBA, but guys who fit that profile who are also at least reasonable threats from three are not only where the NBA is headed but really where it is already.  It was a long time ago, but don’t forget that Tennessee doesn’t beat Purdue without Alexander’s late-game three pointer that helped send it into overtime.  He’s got a nice stroke, which shows up from the free throw stripe, so it’s not beyond the realm of possibility.  I’m not sure that’s where Barnes will want Kyle to go, but imagine an offense that has 5 three-point shooters on the floor with Bone/Bowden as true drive threats…to me that’s enticing and entirely possible

Lamonte Turner

Mr. Big Shot earned that nickname all season long, making game-changing and even game-winning shots throughout the year and into March.  Later in the season he also started taking the ball to the rim, mostly in transition with the idea of making a play by wither scoring or getting to the foul line.  His aggressiveness and fearlessness are unmatched and are a big part of why this past season was so successful.  Turner’s development will come from improving his overall quickness to improve on both ends of the floor, allowing him to drive past defenders in the halfcourt on offense and better stay in front of his man on defense (a real weakness, in my opinion). Additionally, Turner, a natural scorer in a PG body, needs to improve his post passing and overall awareness about when and how to get the ball into guys like Williams and his fellow big men

There is obviously tons of improvement that Tennessee’s 5+1 can make between Saturday’s heartbreaking end to the season and the beginning of what should be the most hyped and anticipated Volunteer basketball season in at least 10 years.  That’s what makes the future of the program so bright and Tennessee fans so excited about what Coach Barnes has going on in Knoxville.  Next up we’ll take a look at the remainder of the roster and what each of them can do with their games to take the team to the next level.

Loyola-Chicago Gets the Bounce, Beats Tennessee 63-62

When you play close games, you put your heart out there to be broken. We can argue about the match-up and whether this game should have been this close, but too much of that does a disservice to Loyola-Chicago, both their season and their performance today. This was a good team, and they played like one today.

Tennessee, also a good team, didn’t play particularly poorly. The Vols shot 45.5% from the floor, a not-terrible 36% from three, and only turned it over seven times. But the Vols were taken out of their flow in a couple of ways. Admiral Schofield looked like he would write himself into the first page of Tennessee basketball lore in the first five minutes, but foul trouble hampered him the rest of the day. The Vols, healthy all year, didn’t have Kyle Alexander today. Tennessee blocked only two shots, only the fifth time in 35 games they had less than three on the year. Six offensive rebounds was tied for the second-fewest of the year. They did get some flashes of promise from Derrick Walker.

But I think more than anything, Tennessee couldn’t do what it needed to do to disrupt what Loyola wanted to do. The Vols only shot six free throws (and only made three of them), erasing what could have been one of their biggest advantages over the Ramblers. The lack of free throw opportunities is one of the consequences of taking so many threes. And, especially without Alexander and with Schofield in foul trouble, Tennessee’s defense couldn’t consistently stop Loyola’s offense, which was as good as advertised. The Ramblers shot 50% from the field and 40% from the arc; the Vols couldn’t pull away from them defensively and weren’t productive enough offensively to do the same. And that’s how you get a game decided on the final possession. Grant Williams made a play I’m not sure Loyola could have stopped. Clayton Custer got a bounce on a tough shot there’s nothing Tennessee could do to stop. And the Vols fall by one.

Perspective is elusive when your heart is broken, of course. For me, the pain isn’t because Loyola was an 11 seed; we knew those guys were better than that coming in. There is pain from the lost opportunity with the one seed out in this region after Virginia’s loss, but we also shouldn’t pretend the Vols were one bounce from punching their ticket to San Antonio. Cincinnati is still alive and well. And in the clear-path department, we’ve actually seen better/worse:  the 2000 squad went to the Sweet 16 as the highest seed left in the region, but lost to North Carolina as an eight seed. When we catch our breath, we might find this isn’t the very worst of anything.

But it was a bad bounce for the good guys, and it always hurts in March. There will also be time to look forward to next year and get excited about everyone but James Daniel coming back, and rightfully so.

But don’t forget to look back, too. This team will be SEC Champions forever. They changed the direction and narrative of Tennessee’s basketball program in a single year. And they gave us the best season we’ve seen from the revenue-producing sports in this athletic department in eight years.

For today, it hurts. But for all they were this year, and all they’ll have a chance to be tomorrow, we are grateful.

Go Vols.

March Madness: Tennessee vs. Loyola-Chicago TV channel and tip time

The Vols take on the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers this evening at 6:10 p.m. ET. The game is on TNT, and a win will advance Tennessee to the Sweet 16.

While you’re waiting, check out our game preview, and have a listen to Will discussing the game with Sports 180‘s Josh and Will:

Game info

Go Vols!

Tennessee vs Loyola-Chicago Preview

When the at-large bids came to an end on the 11 line, the selection committee chose San Diego State and Loyola-Chicago as the top remaining automatic qualifiers. The Aztecs carry some recent tournament history. The Ramblers…well, if you’re like me, you didn’t even know Loyola-Chicago was the Ramblers before this year. Loyola did win the NCAA Tournament in 1963, one of four appearances for the decade. They next made the tournament in 1985. They next made the tournament this year.

So they may be relatively unknown, but they’re the best Cinderella on the dance floor. At 40th in KenPom, they’re an eight seed disguised as an eleven.

Do not overlook this team. But do not overrate them: they beat Florida in December and beat Miami yesterday, but Tennessee will be the best team on their schedule.

The Vols and Ramblers play at a similar pace, with Tennessee slightly faster (271st nationally; Loyola is 314th). Like Tennessee, Loyola distributes the ball well (24th nationally in assist percentage). But while Tennessee’s distribution leads to the muscle of Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield (and often an offensive rebound or the free throw line), Loyola’s leads to high percentage, first-shot scoring.

The Ramblers are 15th nationally in three-point percentage and 13th in two-point percentage. Their threes are opportunity shots – only 35.8% of their attempts are from the arc, 215th in the country – but they take full advantage. Point guard Clayton Custer takes just over four threes per game, but shoots 46.2% from deep, 23rd nationally. Forward Donte Ingram shoots more often and hits 39.9%. Center Cameron Krutwig (6’9″ 260) is a high-percentage scorer inside, over 60% from the floor. And their most efficient scorer comes off the bench: forward Aundre Jackson averages 10.9 points in 19.1 minutes.

But if they don’t get it on the first attempt – and especially if Krutwig doesn’t get the rebound – Loyola doesn’t get it. The Ramblers are 331st nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (which is why they’re only 67th in offensive efficiency despite shooting so well). I haven’t seen them enough to know this for sure, but my assumption is their focus is on preventing transition and playing great defense. And they do that: the Ramblers are also 26th in defensive efficiency. They don’t foul, and they don’t block shots. But they will take it away, getting a steal on 10.1% of opponent possessions.

Loyola is 24-0 when shooting at least 45%, 5-5 when they don’t. Their lowest shooting percentage in those 24 victories was yesterday, 47.3%. This is the biggest question for this game: how much can Tennessee’s defense affect the great shooting Loyola is accustomed to?

The Vols are fifth nationally in defensive efficiency. The best defensive team Loyola has faced is Florida (19th). But they shot 52% against the Gators, including 10-of-12 for Aundre Jackson and 6-of-10 for Cameron Krutwig inside. They hit 6-of-12 from the arc. And they held Florida to 36.9% from the floor; the Gators had 15 more shot attempts thanks to 18 offensive rebounds, and only turned it over eight times, but simply could not convert.

Even without Wichita State, there are still some good defensive teams in the Missouri Valley: Evansville is 32nd in efficiency, Northern Iowa 60th. The Ramblers also played Wright State. Miami, 44th in defensive efficiency, gave up 47.3% from the floor to the Ramblers, out-shooting them from the floor and the arc. But they turned it over 16 times (and the loser of yesterday’s game was always going to kick themselves for missing five free throws).

Tennessee should represent the stiffest challenge for Loyola’s offense this year. But the Vols played a top five strength of schedule; Loyola’s offense should not be the stiffest challenge Tennessee’s defense has faced.

The Vols have played 13 offenses rated higher in efficiency than Loyola, including teams rated first (Villanova), second (Purdue), and fifth (North Carolina). For pure shooting, only Villanova and Purdue have been better than the Ramblers. But when you include the rebounding and free throw components, their numbers fall down the list. Tennessee held Purdue to 37% from the floor and the arc. Villanova was good, but not spectacular (46%) against Tennessee’s defense. The Vols have defended well enough against great offenses to feel confident they can do it again tomorrow.

And more good news for Tennessee: the Vols will also be the most efficient offense the Ramblers have faced all year.

Loyola is a good team accustomed to winning, and after yesterday I’m sure they’re feeling good. They are one of the best teams in the nation at scoring on their first shot. But if they don’t get it then, they don’t get it. And Tennessee will test them – on both ends of the floor – in ways they haven’t been tested yet.

Saturday, 6:10 PM ET, TNT. Atlanta awaits.

Go Vols.

Tennessee 73 Wright State 47: Smother and Advance

The Vols missed their first six shots in the first three minutes, a few nerves showing their face in Dallas, perhaps. But in those same three minutes, Wright State went 0-for-3 and turned it over twice. Then the Vols got going. The Raiders did not.

Tennessee led by 11 at halftime, never let Wright State get closer than 10 from there, and stretched their legs in the final minutes to take home a 26-point victory. In the SEC/Big 12 Challenge the Vols held Iowa State to 45 points and 33.3% from the floor, the best performance from Tennessee’s defense this year before today. The Vols held Wright State to 31.7% shooting, and just missed a new benchmark for points allowed before a mini-spurt from the Raiders in the last three minutes.

The Vols almost had double-double-doubles: Admiral Schofield had 15 points and 12 rebounds, while Grant Williams added 14 points and nine rebounds. Lamonte Turner poured in 19 points off the bench, including 9-of-10 at the line, while adding nine assists to just one turnover. Tennessee also got good work from John Fulkerson and Jordan Bowden in grabbing seven rebounds apiece.

It’s the sixth time since 2006 the Vols have advanced to the tournament’s second round; four of the other five made their way to the Sweet 16. To get there the Vols will have to go through Miami or Loyola-Chicago, a stiffer challenge either way. But credit the Vols today for using defense to do exactly what a three seed should do to a 14. Not since Tennessee blew out Long Beach State in 2007’s opening round have the Vols had such an enjoyably easy time in the tournament. It won’t be this easy again, but the Vols look more than up to the challenge.

March Madness: Tennessee vs. Wright State TV channel, tip time, and online game-watching party

The Vols open NCAA Tournament play at 12:40 p.m. ET today against the Wright State Raiders. TruTV has the broadcast, so if you’re not watching online or casting to your big screen, you’d better start looking for the channel number now.

While you’re waiting, check out today’s roundup of hype videos and game previews.

Game info

Go Vols!

There Is No Blueprint

What has grown since November comes to an end in March. While there will be only one champion, the entire field can hope for a moment. Just one moment to lead to the chance to make just one more. The last days of the season are the best, as long as you keep winning.

While I don’t want to find out what it’s like to lose to a 14 seed, this season is already safely in the “best” category for Tennessee. I’ve got the t-shirt to prove it. And this is still the same year that started in 13th place in the media poll. Many didn’t think we’d be playing today at all, nevermind as a three seed.

You couldn’t script this season. And it’s really hard to script this team:

  • The Vols are 19-3 when shooting at least 33.3% from three. But they also beat Florida, Texas A&M, and won at Rupp Arena shooting less than that.
  • The Vols are 17-0 when holding their opponent under 40% from the floor. But they also beat Kentucky twice when the Cats shot above that.
  • The Vols are 14-0 when assisting on at least 64% of their made shots. But they beat Purdue and Kentucky when assisting on less than half of their makes.

Who makes this team go?

  • Grant Williams has scored 20+ eight times, but the Vols lost two of those games. Meanwhile one of their best performances of the year was at Mississippi State, when he had eight.
  • Admiral Schofield has scored 20+ seven times, but only two of those came against tournament teams (Kentucky twice). Meanwhile the Vols beat nine-seed NC State in the Bahamas when Schofield had zero.
  • The Vols are 13-2 when Jordan Bowden scores double digits, but just annihilated Arkansas in the SEC Tournament when he had two points.

(All these stats come from the fine folks at Sports Reference)

There was no blueprint for a season like this one in November, and there is no detailed blueprint for what Tennessee does well in March. The Vols play inside-out and defend well enough to give themselves a chance to win every night, but have enough diversity offensively to get that win in a number of different ways. They won the deepest SEC in history, won eight games against tournament teams, and went to the wire with a one seed and a two seed. They ran past Arkansas with 84 points and won in Rupp Arena by holding Kentucky to less than 60. I’m not even sure what a bad match-up would look like for this team, but I know no one will look forward to playing them.

I don’t know what’s going to happen from here. But I do know, whoever we’re facing, Rick Barnes and his staff will give these players a chance to win, one way or another.

Let’s dance.

The 2018 Hoops Recruiting Landscape: While we Wait

After a thrilling SEC Tournament run that ended in a fun to watch but hard to take 77-72 loss to Kentucky, the Vols will kick off what could potentially be a magical NCAA Tournament run on Thursday against Wright State.  And while Rick Barnes and the entire Tennessee basketball program are no doubt focused on the task at hand, one eye is always on the future and recruiting.  As we went over in depth here, the immediate future is incredibly bright as not only are twelve of the thirteen scholarship players on this conference champion roster scheduled to return and nine of those thirteen sophomores and freshmen but the level of talent Barnes and Co. are recruiting is already clearly at a higher level than since he’s been in Knoxville.  So while we wait for Thursday’s tipoff, let’s take a quick look at some interesting developments on the recruiting scene

Mark Fox Fired from UGA

As rumblings started that Mark Fox was likely to be fired at Georgia, 5-star PG prospect Ashton Hagans from the Atlanta area decommitted from the Dawgs.  Currently a 2019 prospect, there has been much discussion about whether he might reclassify to the 2018 class.  Either way, his recruitment has become much more crowded as the likes of Georgetown, NC State and others have thrown their hat into the ring.  Depending on who Georgia hires, and whether or not the new coach keeps assistant Jonas Hayes on, the Dawgs could still be a factor as well.

The Vols were in the mix before Hagans committed to UGA and one would assume they will try and get more involved now with the dynamic lead guard.  If Hagans does indeed reclassify to 2018, one would think that the opportunity to come in and immediately play for a title contending team will be attractive.  If he stays in the 2019 class the Vols will have that much more time to recruit him, and will likely be that much more of a power program, so either way Hagans will be one to watch

Tubby Smith Fired from Memphis

Although this isn’t official as of this writing, Tubby Smith will not be coaching at Memphis next season and it’s just as likely that Penny Hardaway will be.  That could have multiple implications for Tennessee recruiting in 2018:

Tyler Harris: The diminutive local high school star is thought to *currently* be a Baylor lean with the Vols trying to get him on campus.  However, though he was never signing with Memphis with Smith as coach it seems very likely that Hardaway will land him

Anfernee Simons: Simons is the Vols #1 target and is an elite player who would make the Vols a preseason darling and maybe even Top 5 type team.  Simons is eligible for the NBA Draft and very likely could go that route. With Hardaway’s hiring it is rumored that Simons, who is named for and whose family has some sort of relationship with Penny, the Tigers could become a factor here.  All that of course is dependent on Simons passing on the opportunity to declare for the NBA Draft, which seems less and less likely.  His next chance to impress NBA scouts will be the Jordan Brand Class on April 8th in Brooklyn and he will have to make a final decision one way or the other soon after

Myreon Jones: An interesting prospect who had limited offers (Colorado State and Wofford) before committing to the Tigers despite being ranked by 247 Sports as the #91 ranked player in 201 class.  He’s considered more of a combo guard who at 6’3, 170 can handle and distribute the ball but is known for his shooting/scoring ability.  He’s also an outstanding student which would likely fit the kind of character mold that Barnes looks for. Where his commitment stands once Smith is forced out is still to be determined, and there has been no interest from Tennessee to-date.  However, the Vols might take another look once the season is over if Jones opens his recruitment back up

Gaines Continues State Title Run

The lone Tennessee high school commitment is 2019 Davonte Gaines, who has had an outstanding senior year leading his Buffalo-area team this season.  That continues as he is now making a run in the NY State tournament before leaving to take a 5th year at Hargrave Academy.  Gaines is an exciting prospect who can do a bit of everything and will spend the year at Hargrave bulking up his wiry frame and improving his overall game against competition that is miles above what he’s faced in Buffalo

More Coaching Changes to Come, More Options Likely to Emerge

While Fox and Smith are two of a handful of firings that have taken place so far, there is likely to be more shakeup in the coaching ranks once the season officially ends.  This will likely cause more players in the 2018 class who are currently committed/signed elsewhere to become available, and at the same time make more players who have the option to take a 5th-year graduate transfer jump at that chance.  Tennessee is going to look like a really good option for someone, especially considering how much publicity the program is getting in March and what kind of team the Vols project to return in 2018-19, not to mention the positive experience James Daniel III had as a 5th year transfer on this team.  So while the pickings look relatively slim right now (after Simons) for that one spot in the 2018 class, expect Barnes and Co. to have a lot of options to add a meaningful piece when it’s all said and done

Tennessee vs Wright State Preview

Wright State comes in 135th in KenPom; that’s the lowest 14 seed and lower than two 15 seeds. Since opening with Presbyterian and High Point, the Vols have only played two teams with a lower KenPom rating: Mercer (148) on November 29, and Lipscomb (165) on December 9. That’s what the fourth-best schedule in the nation looks like.

The Raiders know winning. After an 0-3 start including losses to tourney-bound Loyola-Chicago and Murray State, they won eight of their next ten and then started 7-0 in the Horizon League. There was an issue with guard Justin Mitchell around this time, who apparently left the team in a dispute over playing time. Mitchell averaged 11 points and seven rebounds per game.

Northern Kentucky won the conference, but Wright State swept them. Northern Kentucky is 95th in KenPom and is the best win on Wright State’s resume. They didn’t see them in the conference tournament, rolling past Green Bay by 15, Milwaukee by six, and Cleveland State by 17 in the title game.

As Northern Kentucky is the best team they’ve beaten and Loyola-Chicago is the best team they’ve played (do not – DO NOT – sleep on those guys, 41st in KenPom), Tennessee should be a step up from anything they’ve seen.

What Wright State does well:

  • Defense. Wright State is 53rd in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings. That would still be just 11th-best in the SEC, but it’s worth noting. Opponents shoot just 41.4% against them and average 65.7 points per game.
  • Getting to the free throw line. 21% of their points come at the stripe, and the Raiders are 57th nationally in free throws attempted. Three players shoot better than 81% from the stripe; leading scorer Grant Benzinger shoots 89%, 33rd nationally.
  • Can they guard Grant Williams? They’ll put 6’11” Parker Ernsthausen and 6’9″, 275 lbs Loudon Love on the floor at the same time. Seriously, this dude is a tree. So I’m not sure the ‘ol back-em-down will be option number one.

What Tennessee can do to win:

  • More Defense. This will be true as long as we’re in this thing, but it’s especially true here: if the Vols are going to run away from this team, they’ll do it on the defensive end. Wright State is 248th nationally in KenPom’s offensive efficiency ratings. They may hang their hat on defense, but so should Tennessee. The top three seeds in the South region are ranked first, second, and fourth nationally in KenPom defense. No one is getting to or getting out of Atlanta without making things ugly. If the Vols are committed to excellence on the defense end, Wright State shouldn’t threaten the Vols even in a low-scoring game.
  • Exploit size on the perimeter. Ernsthausen and Love provide plenty of size inside, but Wright State’s guards lack length. Playing a team like Kentucky changes everything about how you get good shots, but against the Raiders the Vols should find more opportunities for productive penetration. I’m curious to see how often the Vols put their three guards and Williams/Schofield lineup on the floor against this team to create a mismatch for the Admiral.
  • Let talent prevail. Wright State is huge inside, but they’re not particularly great at blocking shots: 6.7% is the 288th worst block percentage in the nation. So while Grant Williams may not be backing down Loudon Love, he may still be able to get good shots. The Vols took care of business every single time against a mid-major this season, the first time that’s happened in eight years. With defense was the catalyst, the Vols should be able to do the same thing here.

We’ll have more on the bracket this week. The Vols go at 12:40 PM on Thursday, check your local listings for TruTV.