Category Archives: Basketball

Auburn is the only team to beat Tennessee twice this season, and both times, the Tigers did it by hitting double digit threes and forcing double digit turnovers. We know that allowing the opponent to get to the free throw line an inordinate number of times was also a problem against Kentucky once and the LSU Tigers the only time we played them, but if there’s a blueprint for beating the Vols in the Big Dance, I’d look first for teams that check the same boxes Auburn does.

Three-pointers per game

We won’t know the Vols’ possible opponents until the official bracket is unveiled tonight at 6:00, but here is a list of teams that are similar to or better than Auburn at hitting a plethora of three-pointers per game:

Auburn’s 5th in the nation in three-pointers made per game, and the table above includes the Top 20 teams in that category. Most of those won’t make the tournament, but some of them will. Wofford, Villanova, Belmont, or Furman could spell trouble when it comes to having to defend three-pointers.

Forced turnovers

Here’s a list of teams that are similar to or better than Auburn at forcing turnovers:

Auburn is 6th in the nation in forced turnovers per game, and the above table includes the Top 20 in that category. Again, most of those won’t actually be in the tournament, but some may have or still may earn automatic bids by winning their conference tournaments, and some have NET ratings strong enough to get at-large bids. Buffalo, N.C. State, VCU, and a couple of others could give Tennessee problems if they end up in the same region.

The deadly combo

The good news is that there doesn’t appear to be, apart from the Auburn Tigers themselves, a team that presents the same lethal combination that killed Tennessee’s two chances at SEC titles this season.

Maybe Tennessee’s performance today was more about playing the day after a game that felt like a national semi-final. There’s a reason they don’t play the title game without a day of rest between that and the Final Four games. And maybe Bruce Pearl is the sole caretaker of that pocketful of kryptonite and his team will get bounced by someone else before they can advance to face the Vols again.

But if the magic formula is great three-point shooting and an ability to force a lot of turnovers, then the Vols are going to want to give a wide berth to any team that does well at both.

I didn’t see most of the game today; maybe that was a blessing. I know we’ve spent a great deal of time over the last few weeks talking about brackets and No. 1 seeds; the only path Tennessee has left there is to hope the line about the selection committee not having time to care about Sunday games is fact and not fiction. But wherever the Vols end up now – No. 1 or No. 2, Louisville or Anaheim – they have nothing to do except look in the mirror.

And on that mirror, I’d write “Auburn”.

The Vols need to see themselves: a team that beat Gonzaga and Kentucky twice, spent four weeks at number one, can beat anybody and didn’t lose a single game outside Quad 1. They need to see the team that beat Kentucky on Saturday.

And they need to see Auburn, to be reminded that no one will give it to you.

Auburn is a good basketball team; on the right day, they’re a great team, and the numbers say they were plenty great today. Bruce Pearl is a great coach, we know. No one can take any of that from them.

But in both of Tennessee’s meetings with Auburn, we’re left looking back in that mirror. On the road, the Vols took the invitation to jack threes and came up four points short after a back-to-back stretch of their best basketball in beating Kentucky and Mississippi State. Today in Nashville, the Vols turned it over 17 times and surrendered 13 offensive rebounds. That’s thirty extra possessions. Auburn turned it over seven times, and the Vols had four offensive rebounds. You can do the math. And all of this happened after a back-to-back stretch of their best basketball in beating Mississippi State and Kentucky.

Both times, the Vols faced the Tigers feeling great about themselves, with a championship at stake. Both times, the Vols gave it away.

No one will give it to you.

This Tennessee team is good enough to take it. The lesson, now 34 games into this season and left at the championship altar twice, is you have to take it every night, every possession.

Failure to live that truth cost the Vols two rings.

There’s one ring left.

No one will give it to you. Tennessee has to look in the mirror and remember Auburn. And when they’ve taken a long, hard look at that, they’ll still see a team that is more than capable of taking it.

Keep getting better.

The Vols have beaten better Kentucky teams. John Wall and Demarcus Cousins in 2010. A Final Four squad with Jamal Mashburn in 1993. But I’m not sure a Tennessee win over Kentucky has ever meant as much; I know it hasn’t in my post-Ernie/Bernie lifetime.

A lot of it is a No. 1 seed, which would be the program’s first. We’ve still got to get through Auburn and the selection committee tomorrow, but the Vols have to be considered a favorite to earn one now.

Tennessee was 5-4 against Kentucky under Rick Barnes coming into today. They won at Rupp last year, which is just below the Elite Eight and SEC Tournament titles in frequency around here. That one helped secure an SEC title and solidify this group of players on the national scene. And it really was the national scene today: the biggest game in the 3:30 PM window, in what felt like a play-in for a No. 1 seed.

And Kentucky was good. March will decide how good, ultimately, by UK’s own standards. But all five starters scored in double figures, and Kentucky shot 53.6% from the floor two weeks after making only 14 shots in Knoxville. And the Cats shot 5-of-11 (45.5%) from the arc. This year Kentucky was 24-0 when shooting at least 28%; the last time they lost shooting at least 45% was at Texas A&M in overtime three years ago.

Kentucky went up eight with 2:58 to play. It didn’t feel familiar, because nothing about the weekend in the SEC Tournament is familiar for us yet. But it didn’t feel out of place: good game, good effort from Tennessee, let’s go to the bracket and try to win our way there. The SEC Tournament isn’t Rupp, but Kentucky isn’t the away team either. And in the kind of environment we saw today, good Kentucky teams are expected to get the best of good Tennessee teams.

But this Tennessee team is something more. We’ve seen it all year. And it never looked better than today.

Here’s the final sequence from the 2:58 mark:

• Grant Williams two free throws, Vols down six
• Tyler Herro turnover
• Grant Williams and-one, Vols down three
• PJ Washington bucket, Vols down five
• Admiral Schofield three, Vols down two
• Lamonte Turner steal
• Grant Williams three, Vols up one
• PJ Washington tip-in, Vols down one
• Admiral Schofield miss, Grant Williams offensive rebound, timeout
• Lamonte Turner three, Vols up two
• PJ Washington miss, offensive rebound, miss, Jordan Bone rebound
• Cue the free throws
• Hit the music

PJ Washington was great today, 16 points on 6-of-11 shooting in only 20 foul-plagued minutes. The tip he missed in the final seconds reminded me of Tim Duncan in Game 7 of the 2013 NBA Finals. You just expect him to make that shot. And he missed.

Down the stretch, Kentucky’s best players didn’t convert. Instead, Tennessee’s best players made the best plays in the best win of the best year.

Admiral Schofield adding to his legend. Grant Williams taking Reid Travis with an and-one, a corner three, and a monstrous offensive rebound. Lamonte Turner doing what Lamonte Turner loves to do at the end of games. Jordan Bone grabbing that last rebound and going 4-for-4 at the line.

Our old RTT colleague and friend of the blog Chris Pendley likened it to a Hulk Hogan performance at the end of the match: take your best shots, but in the end we simply won’t sell them. Right hands, big boot, leg drop. 1-2-3. Whatcha gonna do.

There is so much that’s still new in this season. Having Tennessee’s best be better than Kentucky’s on a neutral floor in a year when both are battling against each other for a No. 1 seed? Having it be Tennessee’s players that make all those players in a game like this at the end?

This team simply keeps getting better. And that’s good, because they’re less than 24 hours away from a chance to win the SEC Tournament for the first time in my life, and many of yours. And then they’re headed to the NCAA Tournament, probably atop a region for the first time ever. And then…

Go Vols.

It belongs in a museum.

So, look. This is a year when hyperbole is available on a regular basis for Tennessee. Jordan Bowden’s dunk at Vanderbilt is one of the best I’ve ever seen by a Tennessee player. And it came at a crucial moment, with the Vols down five with under four to play.

But this thing last night was a masterpiece.

• As Lamonte Turner pointed out postgame, Schofield jumped off his right foot and dunked right-handed. I didn’t even notice that in the carnage.
• The perfect timing of, “Building ready to exploOOOOOOODE!” on commentary.
• The perfect follow-up of total silence from the announce crew, which is so hard to do. Kudos to those guys for not being bigger than the moment itself.
• The baseline ref’s extra body language in calling the blocking foul.
• Schofield’s wrestling heel walkaway.

Also, a credit to the victim, freshman Robert Woodard, for trying to take that charge. Defensive effort should always be applauded in moments like this, in a big game the Bulldogs were on the verge of watching slip away. That kid tried to make a play. And his feet weren’t far from making it happen. That’s the risk required: sometimes you’re the hero, and sometimes you’re on the tracks when the train’s coming through.

Tennessee’s train, by the way, was incredibly efficient last night. Late fouls put the Vols on the line 15 times for the night, but UT’s first free throw came with 10:53 left in the game. But it felt more weird than wrong: the game had great flow with few fouls on either side, and Tennessee was getting the shots they wanted.

On the night, the Vols had 66 field goal attempts, fourth-most in regulation on the season. And only 11 of them were threes, second-fewest on the season.

After taking Auburn’s bait in the regular season finale, the Vols imposed their will on a good Mississippi State team for the second time in ten days. Obviously Schofield (20 points on 9-of-12) and Williams (16 on 8-of-17) were terrific. But getting not just Jordan Bone, but Lamonte Turner active inside the arc was critical.

For Turner, it wasn’t just the assists (eight, with Bone’s nine). Lamonte is an incredibly efficient scorer inside the arc: 35-of-58 (60.3%) in league play, eighth-best in the conference. Tennessee’s guards created in ways that sucked in the defense, and one of the biggest beneficiaries was Kyle Alexander: 16 points and seven offensive rebounds.

It’s not rocket science, but Tennessee’s offense has been so good all year in so many ways, it’s easy to forget what brings out their very best. Last night was good, old-fashioned basketball: guards penetrate and distribute, big men clean it up, let your two best players take the most shots.

None of that will come as easy against Kentucky.

We Could Get Used To This

The Vols find themselves playing the weekend in the SEC Tournament for just the sixth time since 1991. But as it’s now also the sixth time since 2008, perhaps we can start to put some of these old ghosts to bed.

This will also be the third weekend meeting between Tennessee and Kentucky of the decade. In 2010 on Saturday, the Vols were down six with nine minutes to play, but lost by 29 (and then both teams made the Elite Eight). Last year on Sunday, the Vols turned back a 17-point Kentucky lead in the first half to take the lead briefly in the second, and pulled back with one on a Jordan Bone shot with 1:26 to play. But Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished off an incredible afternoon (29 points and 7 rebounds) down the stretch, and Kentucky won by five.

This year the regular season meeting in Rupp Arena was the highest-ranked Tennessee-Kentucky game ever, the one in Knoxville perhaps the best performance by the Vols all season. But this one feels like it has the most at stake.

Virginia and Gonzaga are both already down this week; the Cavs should still be a No. 1 seed, and Gonzaga should still be headed to Anaheim at No. 1 or No. 2. Duke’s narrow win over North Carolina makes things more complicated than the alternative for the selection committee; a Florida State victory in the ACC finals tonight would only help the winner of the Vols and Wildcats. But right now, both Tennessee and Kentucky are ahead of North Carolina in NET, and the Tar Heels now have six losses to Tennessee’s four and Kentucky’s five.

The door feels rightfully open for the winner of Tennessee and Kentucky to earn a No. 1 seed, with Kansas City the most likely destination. But I don’t think anything is off the table at this point; if Duke falls to Florida State and the Vols win the SEC Tournament, there’s a scenario where Tennessee could go to Louisville as the No. 1 seed.

The Cats remain uncomplicated: 24-0 when shooting at least 28% from three, 3-5 when they don’t. Free throws have been the biggest disparity between these two teams this year: Kentucky is 42-of-62 (67.7%) in our two meetings, Tennessee 23-of-32 (71.9%). Tennessee doesn’t have to have it to win – the Vols (in)famously shot zero free throws in the second half against the Cats in Knoxville and won by 19 – and aren’t built to have everything go through the free throw line anyway, as we saw last night. The biggest thing Tennessee can do is defend their butts off, again. Kentucky made 14 shots in Knoxville. This time they’ll have Reid Travis back in the mix. But if Tennessee is going to beat Kentucky to earn a No. 1 seed – and if Tennessee is going to advance deep into March – it will be their defense that makes the difference.

Tennessee’s program, largely because of this team and its coaching staff, has played itself into an opportunity like this. We’ve earned the right to be here. Now they’ll have to earn the right to advance. And it’s no surprise to find Kentucky on the other side of the equation once more.

The Vols and Cats will go approximately 20 minutes after the conclusion of Florida and Auburn, which tips at 1:00 PM ET. A No. 1 seed and a chance to win the SEC Tournament for the first time since 1979 are on the table. This is March.

Go Vols.