Early Efficiency From Three

Two seasons ago Lamonte Turner splashed 39.5% of his three-point attempts, and went 38-of-84 (45.2%) in conference play, the second-best mark in the league that season (stats via KenPom). It was part of a remarkable shooting run from the 2017-18 Vols, with Admiral Schofield (39.5%), Jordan Bowden (39.5%), and Jordan Bone (38%) pushing Tennessee to shoot 38% from the arc as a team; that’s the best number the Vols put up since Bruce Pearl’s first team hit 38.8% behind 43.7% from Chris Lofton and 42.2% from C.J. Watson.

Last year Turner struggled to get his shoulder right, finishing at 32% from the arc (but still the maker of big shots). The Vols still hit 36.7% as a team, thanks in large part to Schofield’s 42.2%.

So far this season, Turner has been amazing as the point guard: 28 assists in three games, including 14 without a turnover against Murray State, helping the Vols get an assist on 67.8% of their buckets, currently ninth nationally in assist percentage. And Turner played 39 minutes against the Racers and the Huskies, plus 36 in the blowout of UNC Asheville.

The only blemish: a slow start from the arc at 3-of-16. And yet, the Vols are shooting 46.2% from three in the first three games, the third-best percentage in the nation. Bowden is 9-of-14, Yves Pons 5-of-8, Jalen Johnson 3-of-8, Josiah James 2-of-3, Davonte Gaines 1-of-1, and even Zach Kent is in on the action at 1-of-2.

The juxtaposition of Tennessee’s percentage and the number of threes the Vols take is staggering early: third nationally in percentage made, 316th nationally in percentage taken. But it plays into something that happened with Tennessee some last season: even for a good three-point shooting team, too many attempts got the Vols out of their offense and sometimes led to defeat.

Via Sports-Reference, last season the Vols went 4-4 when attempting 24+ threes, and 27-2 when attempting 23 or less. There are a couple of overtimes in those 24+ games that can skew the numbers a tad, but generally Tennessee’s best basketball didn’t include heavy reliance on the three, unless they were going to hit an even more unusually high percentage of them (12-of-29 for 41.4% against #1 Gonzaga).

In Tennessee’s first real test this season against Washington, I wondered if the Vols would go outside more, especially against the Huskies’ interior and facing a zone that can invite deep threes. Bowden and Turner have been around long enough and made enough to get a green light. But instead, the Vols were disciplined and carved up Washington inside the arc, while still splashing 6-of-13 from beyond.

We need more time and more games to see if Yves Pons’ shot is real and if Turner’s shot will come on again. But even without last year’s vets inside, the Vols aren’t falling in love with the three, even if it sure looks like it wants to fall in love with them.

We’ll see if that continues tonight when the #20 Vols take on 0-3 Alabama State (7:00 PM, SEC Network+).

Tennessee 75 Washington 62: We Should’ve Known

The big picture questions of this season revolved around what the Vols could/would do in the paint. Kyle’s gone, Grant’s gone, Admiral’s gone, Uros is ineligible, Pons is playing the four. #20 Washington provided an excellent early test, with three 6’9″ starters, one of them a top five freshman, and plenty of shot blocking.

And Tennessee did the simple things to absolute perfection.

Maybe we’re still a little hesitant to believe the most straightforward answers to those questions could all be real without all that cast from last season. But Tennessee took down Washington’s length by absolutely wearing out its zone defense with the same free throw line jumper it worked so well last season. I thought the Vols needed Williams inside to get those kind of looks. Turns out, at least today, nope: Tennessee shot 47.2% from the floor against what was the #13 defense in KenPom’s efficiency ratings. The Huskies allowed 31.2% from inside the arc in their first two games. Tennessee opened up a 12-point halftime lead behind Jordan Bowden, John Fulkerson, and Yves Pons knocking down open jumper after open jumper.

It’s only three games, but it feels like it’s time to start assuming good things from Yves Pons. Bowden took 13 shots to tie for Tennessee’s lead…with Pons, who hit seven shots and finished with 15 points. He splashed another three, and he can still do this:

What seemed like a stop-gap measure has turned into an actual strength on both ends of the floor. Pons isn’t just the best available option at the four. He could end up one of the best in the league. Once again, Rick Barnes and company are transforming a player with incredible speed and efficiency.

With Plavsic, I wondered who else the Vols would play beyond a seven-man rotation. Without Plavsic, Tennessee plugged in Olivier Nkamhoua – two blocks of his own – and ran a seven-man rotation just fine. Would something like that work in SEC grind? Not sure. But tonight, Tennessee’s seven jumped Washington 14-5 in the first five minutes. Washington got no closer than five the rest of the way, and no closer than seven in the second half.

The Vols are now 7-7 against ranked foes in the last three seasons. In Bruce Pearl’s six-year tenure, Tennessee went 23-21 against ranked foes. You needed to see one to believe it, perhaps, but Barnes and company will have the Vols back in the Top 25, and back chasing the same expectations now, not later.

And they’re doing all of it without any revelation from five-star Josiah James, free to come along nicely with a 4-of-4 performance from the floor tonight and the J.P. Prince Stat Line of the Game: 9 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 3 turnovers, 3 fouls.

The Vols return home to face Alabama State on Wednesday (0-3 and lost to Gonzaga by 31), then host Chattanooga on Monday, November 25. Then it’s off to Destin for the next big test against Florida State and either VCU or Purdue. The way things are going, the Vols might go from scrappy rebuild on the fly to the highest-ranked team in the field.

We’ll worry about that later. For now, this was a big, validating win: old faces, new roles, same result.

Go Vols.

Tennessee vs Washington Preview

The good news: a bye week isn’t really a bye week when your basketball team is playing a Top 20 opponent. The bad news: because everyone not on a bye is still playing football, all your television channels are spoken for. So we welcome the Vols to ESPN+, which means you can watch this game for $4.99 (per month if you don’t cancel it) or as part of an expanded Disney+ subscription.

A tangent: Tennessee’s football media guide includes a section called “Vols On Television”, a ludicrous premise to anyone under the age of 30. You have to go back to a game between the 4-4 Vols and Memphis in November 1994 to find the last time a Tennessee football game simply wasn’t available to watch. But between 1989 all the way up to the first game of the Butch Jones era, VideoSeat carried 47 Tennessee football games on pay per view; some who lived outside the Volunteer State in the latter part of that run will remember fondly the old ESPN GamePlan package carrying these games. The first one of those PPV games is the most famous: September 9, 1989, when the Vols went to #6 UCLA late on the east coast and rolled to a 24-6 victory, sparking Tennessee’s “decade” of dominance from 1989-2001. The media guide lists the Vols as 46-1 in those games (thanks, Wyoming); it’s the nature of the beast that they’d be less interesting.

Even the term “pay per view” seems strange now unless you’re a wrestling fan, and it may fade from that vocabulary too over time. The good news for basketball: the Vols aren’t playing Austin Peay, and you’re getting #20 Washington at a much better price.

The Huskies leaped from the also receiving votes pile with a stunning comeback against #16 Baylor in the Armed Forces Classic from Anchorage. Baylor went up 10 with 5:38 to play. They hit a single free throw the rest of the way home.

Tennessee might see each of the three highest-rated freshmen in college basketball this season. We’ll see what happens with James Wiseman at number one. Anthony Edwards – there’s two o’s in Goose – is at Georgia, he’s number two. And number three is Isaiah Stewart, a 6’9″ 245 lbs. forward at UDub. They threw him in the fire right away with 36 minutes against Baylor, and he went 7-of-13 for 15 points and 7 rebounds. Fellow 6’9″ Top 10 freshman Jaden McDaniels played 33 minutes and had 18 points, going 7-of-8 at the line.

The leading scorer was 6’6″ junior Nahziah Carter with 23 points on 4-of-6 from the arc. And you’ll remember Quade Green, who transferred from Kentucky. He scored double figures in each of the 2018 UT/UK games; it’s a different role here, as he had only two points but dished out nine assists for the Huskies in the opener.

Washington was already pulling in elite talent: Markelle Fultz was the top pick in the 2017 draft, and Matisse Thybulle is getting 15 minutes a night as a rookie with the Sixers. But the transition from Lorenzo Romar to Mike Hopkins following a 9-22 finish with both of them on the roster has led to actual wins. Hopkins was an assistant at Syracuse for more than 20 years, the coach-in-waiting for Jim Boeheim who, it seems, got tired of waiting. Washington rebounded to 21-13 and an NIT appearance in Hopkins’ first year, then 27-9 with a Pac-12 title last season. They routed Utah State in an 8/9 game, then got routed by North Carolina.

After finishing 224th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings in 2017, Hopkins has made defense the focus: 73rd in 2018, 18th last season, and 13th in the early stages this year. The big freshmen protect the rim, and they do not tolerate nonsense: McDaniels and 6’9″ junior Hameir Wright each blocked four shots in the opener, then Stewart got five against Mount St. Mary’s. If we don’t get at least one good showdown between Yves Pons and one of these dudes, I’ll be disappointed.

So there are obvious issues for Tennessee in going against a lineup featuring three 6’9″ guys. It’s a thin bench for Washington, so foul trouble becomes an issue both ways. The Vols haven’t done much in the way of getting to the line in the first two games, and are shooting just 60% when they arrive. What Tennessee did do was torch Murray State from the arc at 12-of-22. Getting a high volume of shots from three was sometimes a sign of trouble last season. But without Williams, Schofield, and Alexander, the Vols may lean more toward the three this season. Washington’s excellent rim protection should be a good indicator of how Barnes sees that dilemma.

But what also comes with playing a bunch of freshmen: turnovers. The Huskies survived 20 in the opener, then added 15 including five from McDaniels against Mount St. Mary’s. The Huskies are giving it away on 25.1% of their possessions. That’s opportunity.

Here’s a phrase you don’t really use when you spend a month at number one, but might be applicable some this season: Washington might be a bad match-up for Tennessee. This combination of size and skill is rare, and will be the biggest test for Pons, Fulkerson, and certainly Nkamhoua to date. You won’t see much of the Huskies playing so far away, but they’ll be worth keeping an eye on; the Bracket Matrix has them as a nine seed, but the ceiling is obviously quite high.

This first run of marquee non-conference foes features Tennessee – a seven seed in the Bracket Matrix – going against teams right on their level. Washington is ranked 20th, and all four teams in the Emerald Coast Classic – the Vols, Florida State, VCU, and Purdue – are between 26-32 in also receiving votes. Group them together, and 2-1 would be a job well done. But we’re not used to thinking that way after last season…and there’s no reason to start until losing makes you.

Can the more experienced Vols impose their will, turn Washington over, and shoot well enough from three to get the win in Toronto? The first real answers will come Saturday at 5:00 PM on ESPN+.

Go Vols.

Tennessee vs Murray State Preview

The Racers – home of one of my favorite college sports logos – are more than the school of Ja Morant. The number two pick in June’s draft is averaging 18.6 points with the Memphis Grizzlies; Murray State went 26-6 and 28-5 in his two seasons, knocking off Marquette in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year.

Murray State has long been one of the best stepping stones for coaches. This is Matt McMahon’s fifth year; before him it was Steve Prohm (to Iowa State), Billy Kennedy (to Texas A&M), and Mick Cronin (to Cincinnati). It’s a program accustomed to winning, and though Morant is gone, I wouldn’t take them lightly. Guard Tevin Brown led the way with 17 points in their 20-point win over Southern (349th in KenPom) in the opener, on par with Tennessee’s level of competition against UNC Asheville. And 6’10” K.J. Williams had 15 points and 11 rebounds.

Brown was a high-percentage shooter last season; Morant’s play led to lots of open shots for other guys. That was even more true for Williams, who shot 71% inside the arc, eighth nationally in two point field goal percentage. Tennessee’s defense will have an opportunity to frustrate them more than they’re used to.

It was one game, but a couple of things jumped out for the Vols statistically. Tennessee grabbed 17 offensive rebounds – Pons with five, Fulkerson and Nkamhoua with four each – for a 48.6% offensive rebounding percentage. The Vols were a Top 75 team in that category the last two years; just one game, but it was nice to see the undersized Vols continue to get in the mix there.

If you’re bothered by UNC Asheville being remotely competitive with the Vols, consider a small tip of the cap to them for making tough shots. The Bulldogs had 24 made shots but had only four assists, an excellent team defensive effort from the Vols. There will be nights when Tennessee’s individual defensive efforts – staying in front of guys off the dribble, undersized post match-ups – are an issue. But for a team with so many new pieces and changing roles, Tennessee’s team defense was really good against UNC Asheville.

Murray State is an excellent step up on the way to Toronto, where Washington awaits on Saturday (excellent scheduling for a bye week!). The Huskies beat Baylor in the opener and feature Kentucky transfer Quade Green, among others. KenPom likes the Vols to beat the Racers by 13 and calls the Huskies a toss-up. Things will get real in a hurry; Murray State is a great test to see if these Vols are up to speed.

7:00 PM Wait, 9:00 PM? What? On the actual SEC Network. Go Vols.

Tennessee Basketball Preview

Here’s the jump now: from a team to a program.

It’s teams, plural, the last two years. Because Tennessee’s DNA in 2018 & 2019 wasn’t made out of freshmen but upperclassmen, we got two cycle-up years. The Vols won an SEC title, spent more than a month at number one, tied for the program’s highest NCAA Tournament seed, made the Sweet 16, and gave four of its players a chance in the NBA. That list is, in order: hadn’t done in ten years, never before, never better, hadn’t in five years, and never before.

To ensure it’s not never again, Tennessee’s challenge is transitioning from “Grant Williams and those guys” to Tennessee Basketball. Living into an expectation they’re paying Rick Barnes to fulfill. The foundation is strong, and the future is bright with Barnes bringing more talent to Knoxville than literally ever before. It’s tempting to call this a bridge year then, but that’s the thing about building a program: the goal doesn’t change year-to-year.

The faces always do; even last year we learned teams are never exactly the same no matter how many of those faces return. In 2018 the Vols made their way up the ladder with unbelievable defense, finishing sixth in KenPom on that end of the floor. We assumed it would be the same story last season, then the Vols unleashed the third-best offense in college basketball, while the defense “slipped” to 42nd.

The assumption leans offense again this season: 19th there, 38th defensively, 20th overall in the KenPom preseason ratings. It may have to if Uros Plavsic (Ü-rosh PLÄV-chich) doesn’t win the appeal behind door number three. Either way, it’ll be both interesting and fun to see how all the pieces fit.

The most intriguing question is, of course, “How good is Josiah James?” That’s the nature of signing the program’s first five-star in six years. But I think the most important question is, “What can Yves Pons give Tennessee at the four?”

Last season Pons saw double-digit minutes through the non-conference portion of the schedule, an intriguing option to cause disruption in the back-court to fill a bench void left by James Daniel. A sign of Barnes’ maturity: making a lineup tweak in the midst of a 19-game winning streak. In the second half of January Pons’ minutes dropped to 10-14 per game, and by February he was backed way down to single digits, taking a pair of DNP’s against Florida and Auburn and playing only 11 minutes in three NCAA Tournament games.

The Vols didn’t need him in that forward spot last year when Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and Kyle Alexander were around. But this time – especially if Plavsic is out and Fulkerson has to live at the five – it would make things much simpler and the Vols more dangerous if Pons can be the answer at the four.

The back-court assumption is Bowden, Turner, and James, with the five-star playing point guard when Lamonte isn’t. Jalen Johnson is available to fill in that rotation as well. Fulkerson and Plavsic, if eligible, can give you post minutes. Pons would make for a tight seven-man rotation when you need it, giving the other freshmen a chance to ease into things.

Those other freshmen include Olivier Nkamhoua (OH-liv-ee-AY KAHM-wuh) from Finland and Drew Pember from Bearden, both in that 6’8″-6’9″ range. Nkamhoua played 17 minutes in the exhibition win, Pember 10, while Fulkerson and Pons each played 20. And there’s also 6’11” Zach Kent, a redshirt sophomore who’s appeared in two games in his Tennessee career. If you don’t see Plavsic, odds are you will see him; he logged 14 minutes in the exhibition.

Exhibitions don’t matter much, and I’m not sure the opener tonight will either. UNC-Asheville went 21-13 in 2018, and when Kermit Davis took the Ole Miss job, Nicholas McDevitt left Asheville for Murfreesboro. Year one for Mike Morrell: 4-27 and a 347th-place finish in KenPom, with their only two Division I wins coming against 336th-place USC Upstate. There’s no Ja Morant next week, but you’ll probably have to wait for Murray State to form any kind of actual opinion. But from there, the Vols go to Toronto to face Washington (a convenient 5:00 PM tip-off next Saturday when the football team is on a bye).

The last time we were building a program under Bruce Pearl, the Vols followed multiple departures in iconic seasons in 2008 & 2010 with appearances in the 8/9 game in 2009 & 2011. That’s the same neighborhood this team finds itself in if you value preseason projections. KenPom projects the Vols to go 20-10 (11-7) and finish tied for second in the SEC with Florida, behind Kentucky (projected 14-4). Look for the first edition of the Bracket Matrix here on Tuesday; Joe Lunardi has the Vols as a nine seed in his final preseason projection.

The Vols are paying to play in the top tier now; the results the last two seasons and the recruiting going forward already belong there. On the way, I wouldn’t expect a 19-game winning streak this season. But part of the fun of being this kind of program is the expectation that you’ll be there in March; I’m excited (and curious!) to see what their best basketball looks like between now and then. This team’s role in solidifying the program as more than a couple great years is significant. And part of being that kind of program is no individual team has to live in the past or anxiously await the future. This team can win. I can’t wait to see how they do it.

It starts at 7:00 PM ET tonight on ye olde SEC Network+. Welcome back, basketball.

Go Vols.

Keon Johnson and Corey Walker Make 2020 Class One of Tennessee’s Best

Keon Johnson’s commitment gives Rick Barnes three of Tennessee’s eight highest-rated signees in the modern recruiting era (247’s commitment list goes back to 2003):

  1. Tobias Harris
  2. Scotty Hopson
  3. Robert Hubbs
  4. Josiah James
  5. Duke Crews
  6. Keon Johnson
  7. Ramar Smith
  8. Corey Walker

Johnson is the second-highest in-state player in that group behind Hubbs. If Josiah James isn’t a one-and-done this season, the 2020-21 Vols will be one of the most talented teams in terms of recruiting stars we’ve seen around these parts.

In terms of wattage in an individual class, the 2020 group could also be in the mix as an all-time great. We don’t think of them as being in the same class today, but it’s hard to top Tobias Harris and Jordan McRae in 2010. Harris was a one-and-done who went 19th in the 2011 NBA Draft; McRae appeared in only ten games that season and played more than four minutes only thrice (via Basketball Reference), but became the dominant scoring option in Cuonzo Martin’s tenure. He’s played in 86 NBA games including 27 last season with the Washington Wizards.

The one that felt most important in the moment was in 2006: while Bruce Pearl was leading one of the most impressive year one turnarounds in SEC history, he also signed Duke Crews, Ramar Smith, Wayne Chism (#13 all-time among Tennessee signees) and Marques Johnson (#21, transferred to NC State). Only Chism would finish his career at Tennessee, but the first three were a part of two Sweet 16’s and a number one ranking in 2007 and 2008.

That 2006 group, on the heels of earning a number two seed in the NCAA Tournament helped change our impression of what Tennessee basketball could be. We’re seeing more of the same from Barnes now: a number three and number two seed in the last two tournaments with teams featuring four players who fought their way to the NBA after coming in ranked 36th (Jordan Bone), 40th (Grant Williams), 53rd (Admiral Schofield), and 62nd (Kyle Alexander) among Tennessee signees all-time. Also in that group: Jordan Bowden (54th). Lamonte Turner stands out at 28th!

What Barnes and that group have done is transform Tennessee basketball, already earning a month atop the polls and missing the program’s first number one seed by a hair while earning a winning record against Kentucky. The steps left to take are few, and the Vols are paying their head coach to be in the company of schools who take them. And now the Vols are earning commitments from the kind of talent that gets you a top five class.

In basketball.

Evaluating Expectations Post-Blackshear

Hey look, basketball content in late June!

A point I would love to have made with Kerry Blackshear coming to Knoxville: in Ken Pomeroy’s player comparisons ($), Blackshear’s 2019 season was most similar to 2017 Johnathan Motley from Baylor…and 2014 Jarnell Stokes. Would you like to add a Jarnell Stokes to Tennessee’s roster? Absolutely. But the Orlando native is headed to Gainesville, and the Vols seem set with their 2019-20 roster.

Adding Blackshear would’ve kept Tennessee in a Top 15 conversation. What do expectations for Rick Barnes’ fifth team look like without him?

In Joe Lunardi’s June 27 Bracketology update, the Vols are an eight seed. That’s down from a six seed on May 16, though I’m not sure if he was counting Grant Williams and Jordan Bone in or out at that point. Tennessee is one of seven SEC teams in the field: Kentucky at two, Florida at three, Auburn at five, then a bunch of teams together with Mississippi State (seven), Tennessee and Ole Miss (eight), LSU (ten), and Alabama (first four out).

Other Vol opponents in Lunardi’s projected field: Memphis is a four seed, Washington a nine, and Cincinnati the Vols’ first round foe in the bracket at nine. Tennessee is the lowest projected seed of the four teams in the Emerald Coast Classic, with Purdue (four), Florida State (five), and VCU (six) all carrying expectations beyond just getting in. Wisconsin, however, is not in Lunardi’s projected field.

As we should expect from Barnes, if the Vols don’t get in it won’t be because of their strength of schedule. It’s also worth noting the last two times the Vols lost the core of one of their best teams in 2008 and 2010, they were in the 8/9 game the following year in 2009 and 2011. That 2011 team could become a decent comparison (without the Bruce Pearl drama) with Josiah James as the program’s first McDonald’s All-American since Tobias Harris that season.

After the UCLA drama, we looked at the expectations that come with paying a coach $4 million plus: make the Final Four at least once per decade, make the Sweet 16 more often than not, and make the tournament 90% of the time. I think the last one is still a good goal for Tennessee this season, and one Barnes won’t shy away from after getting Texas there 94% of the time. The Vols are replacing a ton from Williams, Schofield, Bone, and Alexander. But they also have really good pieces coming back in Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden, guys who’ve made big plays in big wins. They understand the expectations because they helped create them.

Sure, Tennessee’s ceiling is going to depend on its newcomers. And not just the five-star, but the supporting cast of Drew Pember, Davonte Gaines, Olivier Nkamhoua, D.J. Burns, and Uros Plavsic. More than one of those guys is going to play a meaningful role right away, and we won’t know exactly what we’ve got here until we see it. There’s also certainly the development factor for John Fulkerson, Yves Pons, and Jalen Johnson.

That ceiling would’ve been higher right away with Blackshear in the fold. Instead, we’ll get to watch it grow for ourselves over the course of the season. Making the tournament is now the regular expectation. We’ll see how well this group can position themselves along the way.

Grant Williams to the Boston Celtics!

In 1996, the Boston Celtics selected Tennessee’s Steve Hamer in the second round, 38th overall. The Celtics hadn’t made the playoffs the previous three seasons; the Vols hadn’t made the NCAA Tournament in seven years. Hamer averaged 2.2 points per game on the worst Celtics team in history in 1997, and that was it.

It’s a rare and special thing when the pro team you love takes a Tennessee Vol. The only one that really stands out for me is the Titans taking Albert Haynesworth in 2002, which worked out well for all involved. Others have made their way to my favorite teams like Travis Henry and R.A. Dickey. But getting a player you love on a team you love from day one is special.

Williams, we all know, is special. Tennessee’s draft history is sparse since Hamer all those years ago. Ed Gray and Marcus Haislip went in the first round but didn’t stick around, and neither ascended to all-time Vol status while on campus. Tobias Harris is still fun to watch and is finally on a competitive team, but he was a one-and-done. Josh Richardson has become the leading scorer on a great franchise, but did it in continually-surprising fashion from the 40th pick in the draft.

I thought before tonight that Williams would have a chance to have the biggest day-one following for a Tennessee basketball player since Allan Houston. The Vols haven’t had great luck with their players going to NBA teams that are overly lovable: Haislip and Harris to the Bucks, Richardson to the Heat just after LeBron. Even going back to Dale Ellis, who started in Dallas then went to Seattle, NBA Vols haven’t stuck in regionally-friendly environments. Jarnell Stokes had a chance in Memphis but it didn’t work out.

So in this way, Grant Williams and Allan Houston are again similar: Houston went to the Detroit Pistons in 1993, when they still had Dumars, Isiah, and Laimbeer on the roster. For some of us, those guys were hard to like. Likewise, some of you won’t get the warm fuzzies about Grant going to the 17-time world champs; the Celtics inspire strong feelings.

But – if Williams sticks and isn’t caught up in any Danny Ainge shenanigans – it’s a great opportunity. Believe me, the Celtics are ready for more guys who know their role and play it well, and Williams has a chance to help everyone around him get better. It was quite the dichotomy this year being a Celtics fan and a Tennessee fan. The one impossibly talented and a favorite to make the NBA Finals, collapsing under its own weight and chemistry issues. The other a team full of three-stars, imposing its will on college basketball and its heart on Vol Nation for the rest of our lives.

The Celtics can use more of guys like Grant Williams. And we already know how rare guys like Grant Williams truly are. You may not be able to love the Celtics, I get that. But I have no doubt you’ll continue to love Grant Williams, and I’m hopeful it will be in ways that inspire a little more green and white in Big Orange Country for years to come.

Man, this pick made me smile. Go Vols.

Uros Plavsic and what he means for 2020 recruiting and the program writ large

With the addition of 7’1 Arizona State transfer Uros Plavsic to the roster, Tennessee currently has 13 scholarship players for the 2019-2020 season.  However, with most assuming that PG Jordan Bone will choose to stay in the NBA Draft, that will leave one scholarship open.  Given that the Vols will only have five true backcourt players in Lamonte Turner, Jordan Bowden, Josiah James, Jalen Johnson, and Davonte Gaines – and Gaines is in massive need of a year with Garrett Medenwald and Tennessee’s Strength & Conditioning program, so counting on him for meaningful minutes this coming year is probably not smart.  Therefore, between the need for experienced backcourt depth and the need to keep spots open for what is looking like an all-timer class of 2020 (more on that below), adding a grad transfer makes all the sense in the world.  And although the pickings are relatively slim on the grad transfer market at this point, per Jeff Goodman’s transfer rankings the below Guards (ranked overall, including all positions by Goodman) are still available:

20) Jaevin Cumberland, Oakland 
26) Kareem South, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 
34) Ryan Woolridge, North Texas 
43) Donte Fitzpatrick-Dorsey, Tennessee State 
48) Nic Thomas, Norfolk State

It does seem likely that Barnes will wait to make any moves until Bone officially decides, so it could be a week or so before we start to hear about any movement in this regard.  But there has been no discussion about adding a high school PG since Jalen Cone reclassified and decided to sign with Virginia Tech, so as of now it appears to be a grad transfer or bust for the (likely) 13th scholarship.

When it comes to the aforementioned class of 2020, after adding both fast-rising 2019 signee Oliver Robinson-Nkamhoua and Plavsic to go with the three fall signees, Coach Barnes and the Vols currently have three total spots for the class.  One of those is held by 5-star F Corey Walker, who recently transferred from his Florida high school to Hargrave Military Academy (where Gaines just spent a prep year).  Walker is a bigtime talent and projects as an instant impact player in both the low post and on the wing and will give Tennessee a 5-star signee in back to back classes for the first time ever.  The Vols are also the presumed front-runner for borderline 5-star Wing Keon Johnson who hails from Bell Buckle, TN and will announce his commitment on August 6th to either Tennessee, Virginia, or Ohio State.  If Barnes is able to land Johnson, that will not only give the Vols two elite players in the class but also leave just one spot remaining (assuming no future roster movement, which is all we can do at the moment).  With the Vols in very good shape for multiple other high-level 2020 prospects (see list below), one could make the case that adding Plavsic – who might have to sit out the 2019-20 season pending a transfer exemption from the NCAA – in particular could be seen as puzzling. 

#11 Jaden Springer – CG

#22 Cam Hayes – PG currently in the 2021 class who the Vols have approached about reclassifying

#31 Caleb Love – PG

#40 Jayden Stone – SG

#58 Sam Ruzhentsev – Wing

#62 Bryce Thompson – CG

#65 PJ Hall – PF/C

#85 Matthew Murrell – SG

#141 Chris Moore – PF

#149 Dylan Cardwell

And while Love in particular is directly related to new Tennessee assistant coach Kim English (per Rob Lewis of Volquest.com), this list of prospects for whom the Vols are very much in the mix is all before the upcoming summer AAU circuit, when Tennessee’s newfound spot among the country’s top programs along with English’s new (to Tennessee) connections could add to the list.

With all that talent realistically on the board but likely with only one spot remaining, Vol fans can fairly ask the question: “Why add Plavsic, who though a 4-star coming out of high school and is said to possess good mobility and shooting skill along with his 7’1, 240lb frame, was a) not pursued by Barnes initially despite playing up I-75 in Chattanooga, b) was initially committed to Cleveland State before signing with the Sun Devils, and c) redshirted last season, therefore being a bit of a mystery in terms of development and calling into question why he wasn’t able to see the floor? Especially if he might not even be eligible this coming season.” 

Yes, the Vols have a hole in the frontcourt with the loss of Grant Williams (to the NBA), Kyle Alexander and Admiral Schofield (to graduation), and Derrick Walker (to transfer) and with only unproven and inexperienced, albeit potentially talented, backfills.  But neither Plavsic nor Robinson-Nkamhoua project as immediate contributors despite what are clearly talented profiles, so I don’t think getting instant production is the reason. 

Here’s my answer: As much as Barnes clearly has Tennessee recruiting at a higher level than ever, what he values as much as anything is stability and development.  Having the “next man up” ready to step in each and every year and not necessarily bringing in large classes where you’re replacing players who’ve transferred because they’ve been recruited over or are dissatisfied with their role (the anti-Jalen Johnsons) or even one-and-dones that you might not have gotten enough out of (which Barnes experienced a ton of at the end of his run at Texas).  Also, with the 2020 class looking to be heavily loaded with guards and wings – and the potential that James might stay for a second season – it makes sense to have more experienced bigs on the 2020 roster to pair them with.  So rather than, say, PJ Hall (who the Vols are still recruiting and might even take an OV to Knoxville as early as next month) or a Dylan Cardwell coming in as true freshman with theoretically more talent than Plavsic or even Robinson-Nkamhoua but way less experience, Barnes is making the bet that the the two late 2019 signees will be more ready to help the Vols make a big run.  It’s not an across-the-roster bet on experience and development over pedigree, as again the Vols project to have plenty of highly ranked talent, especially at the guard and wing spots (and maybe even down low depending on how they play Corey Walker). 

Barnes clearly is confident in his and his program’s ability to develop players who come to Tennessee with a particular set of skills (shooting, athleticism) and the work ethic to improve.  And he’s also shown, with guys on the current roster like Jalen Johnson, Zach Kent, and Jalen Johnson as clear examples, that he’s not going to run players off who he sees as putting the kind of work in to get better.  That’s what this move with Plavsic seems to be a bet on, even if it’s at the cost of roster spots that very possibly could go to higher ranked/more talented players.  Whether that turns out to be the right play remains to be seen, and we likely won’t know until the 2020-21 season, but it’s hard not to trust a guy who’s done what he’s done while at Tennessee.

Picking the Tennessee Basketball All-Decade Team

Ten years ago at Rocky Top Talk, we asked you to pick your all-decade team for Tennessee Basketball. Chris Lofton was an automatic qualifier, and we went from there with these nominees:

  • Point Guard: Tony Harris, C.J. Watson
  • Perimeter: Vincent Yarbrough, Scooter McFadgon, JaJuan Smith
  • Post: Isaiah Victor, Marcus Haislip, Ron Slay, Dane Bradshaw, Tyler Smith
  • Center: C.J. Black, Brandon Crump, Wayne Chism

From 2000-09, Yarbrough and Haislip were the only Vols selected in the NBA Draft; the former played one year with Denver, the latter two seasons coming off the bench in Milwaukee before brief stints with the Pacers and later the Spurs. C.J. Watson was undrafted, but earned a 10-year career as a backup point guard, including a pair of lengthy playoff runs with the Bulls in 2011 and the Pacers in 2014.

So the biggest difference you’ll find in the all-decade conversation this time around is the NBA: four players drafted so far this decade, multiple possibilities to join them next month, and two guys with an outside chance to become Tennessee’s first NBA All-Star since Allan Houston.

2010-19 catches Bruce Pearl’s deepest tournament run, a Cuonzo Martin team with three NBA draft picks, and the Rick Barnes resurgence. It’s been a wild and enjoyable decade, and as such the candidates for an all-decade team make for an even more difficult conversation this time around. In chronological order:

PGG/FG/FFF/C
B. MazeS. HopsonJ.P. PrinceT. HarrisW. Chism
T. GoldenJ. McRaeJ. RichardsonJ. MaymonJ. Stokes
J. BoneK. PunterA. SchofieldG. WilliamsK. Alexander

As was the case with Chris Lofton in the last decade, you feel like Grant Williams should be an automatic qualifier. But if you’re trying to construct an actual basketball lineup, and you consider the NBA ascent of Tobias Harris and Josh Richardson…can you put all three of those guys in your lineup with a point guard and a center? Can you go small with Williams at the five?

(It’s a hypothetical list, you can do whatever you want, but I’m just saying the choices are harder this time around…which was/is a good thing for Tennessee Basketball.)

A couple of observations:

This exercise will give you a greater appreciation for Jordan Bone. Bobby Maze averaged 9.4 points with a 3.2/1.4 assist/turnover ratio in 2010, and spent most of the decade widely regarded as Tennessee’s best point guard since C.J. Watson. If you wanted your point guard to score, that was Trae Golden: 13.3 points and a 38.8% three point shooter in 2012. And then Bone the last two years had the best of both worlds: 13.5 points last season with a 5.8/2.0 assist/turnover ratio, 38% from the arc in 2018, 35.5% in 2019.

No one took a higher percentage of shots in a Tennessee offense this decade than Scotty Hopson in 2011 (31.3%) and Jordan McRae in 2014 (31.4%). Hopson averaged 17.0 per game in 2011 with 37.6% from the arc. McRae averaged 18.7 in 2014 with 35.1% from the arc, and finished ninth in KenPom’s Player of the Year race that season, tying Grant Williams this season for the best finish for any Tennessee player. Then Kevin Punter put up the highest per game total of the decade in Rick Barnes’ first season: 22.2 points on 36.9% from the arc.

Man, who plays the three? If you allow for the NBA, it has to be Richardson, who led the Heat in scoring this season. If I asked you at any point during Richardson’s Tennessee career, even in the Donnie Tyndall season, if you thought he would lead an NBA team in scoring, what would your response have been? At Tennessee he made the best year-over-year growth of any four-year player I can ever remember: two points per game as a freshman to eight to ten on a Sweet 16 team as a junior, where he was probably the fourth option. Then he got himself to the pros with 16 points per game as a senior.

But how do you not put Schofield on your team? His individual performance against #1 Gonzaga is probably the best of the decade. I’m sure there’s some recency bias, but 16.5 points on 41.8% from the arc plus 6.1 rebounds per game? Did you know that percentage from the arc is the best for any Tennessee player this decade?

Or maybe if you’re trying to field the best basketball lineup, you sneak J.P. Prince in there and let him fill up the stat sheet while everyone else is focused on the other guys.

It’s the same conversation at the forward spot: if you value the NBA, you have to go with Tobias Harris right now. His one season in Knoxville saw 15.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game in an offense where he and Scotty Hopson never really complemented each other well. Harris was great beyond his years in grabbing a rebound and going the length of the floor, getting around contact, and getting a bucket. But Grant Williams needs no introduction in this conversation. If you want to put them both on the floor at the same time, fine by me, but again, does it make basketball sense to play them and Richardson together?

If you were just picking your favorite player of the decade…has enough happened the last two years to move you off Wayne Chism? Maybe Schofield?

Honorable Mentions: If you want Brian Williams instead of Kyle Alexander as your third center nominee, it won’t hurt my feelings; I went Alexander because he’s second all-time in blocked shots at UT. Robert Hubbs, one of the players we probably spent the most word count on during his career, gets edged out in both of the guard/forward spots. And Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden could both work their way into a different version of this conversation if we remember them even more fondly with a big season in 2019-20.

If we let these guys step out of the roles they played at Tennessee, a lineup of Bone, JRich, Grant, Tobias, and Chism both captures the decade well and wins a bunch of games. Using the above categories to put them in the roles they played at UT, I think I’d go Bone, McRae, Admiral, Grant, and Chism, with the eventual NBA studs coming off the bench.

Who ya got?