Tennessee 82 Arkansas 61 – The Medicine

You never know for sure in the league this year – Ole Miss is currently up 25 on Mississippi State – but we thought this might be a really good match-up for the Vols. And that’s exactly what we got: an Arkansas team with no player over 6’8″ found no advantage on the offensive glass and an inability to defend the Vols without fouling. The fouls actually ended up being a wash – Tennessee went 24-of-30, Arkansas 26-of-36 – and the Hogs’ commitment to three-point defense was fairly well represented too, as the Vols went 6-of-16 to Arkansas’ 5-of-16.

But the Vols found a huge difference in the paint, finishing +11 on the glass and getting high-percentage stuff from Jordan Bowden (5-of-9 from two), Yves Pons (4-of-7), an under-the-weather John Fulkerson (4-of-5) and a nice burst from Olivier Nkamhoua off the bench (2-of-2).

Two other factors were a real difference. The Vols started strong, building a 10-point lead in the first 10 minutes and a 17-point advantage at halftime. Arkansas got a bucket at the 17:47 mark in the second half to keep it at 17. Their next made basket came at 9:07, which cut the Tennessee lead to 25. Mason Jones, an SEC Player of the Year candidate, came off the bench in some apparent message-sending from Eric Mussleman. It didn’t work: the Vols held him to 1-of-10 from the floor, nine points total. He scored 30+ in three of his last four games.

And then there’s Santiago Vescovi. The “wait til he cleans some of his game up” stuff might be happening in the present: 20 points and eight assists tonight, including 3-of-4 from the arc.

The result is a game Tennessee controlled from start to finish, a 21-point win over a bubble squad. It moves Tennessee to 14-10 (6-5); again, the Vols just need wins. Seven games left, and the Vols need to win at least four of them. Vanderbilt is getting friskier by the minute, so maybe nothing will be easy. But opportunity will knock almost every night against this schedule, which goes next to Columbia to face a South Carolina team the Vols beat last time only by getting to the free throw line.

But Vescovi has become the poster child for both Tennessee’s bracket hopes and their argument: when you mix and match so many pieces midseason, sometimes you struggle…but sometimes you get a higher probability of your best basketball late in the year. Combined with the win at Alabama and what’s still a strong performance against Kentucky, the Vols are playing solid basketball right now. They’ll need it to become even more so the rest of the way home. But their point guard has become a real weapon as both scorer and facilitator, the Vols have done this without Josiah James three games in a row, and dominated tonight with Fulkerson at something less than 100%.

There’s a long way to go and an uphill climb to get there. But the Volunteer heart is still beating. And its pulse is getting stronger.

Go Vols.

Tennessee vs Arkansas: Hey look, we’re bigger than these guys!

There’s some emotional vulnerability in the air at Thompson-Boling tonight: the depleted Vols, who played hard and smart but just couldn’t get good looks to fall against their rivals over the weekend. And the Razorbacks, who weren’t even supposed to be here in Eric Mussleman’s first season, who were 16-5 (4-4) before losing consecutive games in overtime to Auburn and Missouri.

If you’re the Vols, you want to prevent what happened to Arkansas the second time around and let an emotional loss cost you a second game. Tennessee is also nicely positioned in the Ackbar seat, with Arkansas facing Mississippi State and Florida next.

But more than anything, this match-up is, on paper, more favorable to Tennessee than any on the rest of their schedule (non-Vanderbilt division).

Arkansas starts four players under 6’6″ and 6’8″ Reggie Chaney at center, who is the tallest player on their active roster. As such, the Razorbacks are one of the worst teams in college basketball at the thing that’s killed Tennessee the most recently: offensive rebounds. And they’re bad, in part, because they want to get back and set up their defense, which is built around taking away something the Vols don’t want much to do with anyway: three point shooting.

The Razorbacks are 336th nationally in offensive rebounding. They’re the best team in the country at defending the three, allowing 24.6% from the arc. Check and check for a Tennessee team that wants to go inside and won’t find much opposition in the way of height.

Honestly, every conversation with Arkansas should probably start with Mason Jones, one step ahead of Reggie Perry on the KenPom SEC Player of the Year race. The 6’5″ sophomore scored 18 points on the Vols last year, but it didn’t matter because Arkansas gave up 106. But you have to defend him everywhere: he gets the ball more than any player in the league, he’s responsible for 30% of Arkansas’ shots, and he’s tops in the league at drawing fouls. In the overtime loss at Auburn he took 12 twos, 12 threes, and 16 free throws, scoring 40 points in playing all 45 minutes.

There is a bit of a “just stop everyone else” with this team: he also had 34 in the loss to South Carolina on January 29. We’ve seen one player really wreck Tennessee when the Vols faced Anthony Edwards. If that’s the story again, Tennessee won’t have the firepower to match on the other end.

If you want the flicker of hope for the bracket, it looks like this: beat Arkansas at home tonight (50% in KenPom), get a win at South Carolina on Saturday (41%), take care of business against Vandy next Tuesday (84%). Then you’re 16-10 (8-5), and you’ve at least given yourself a chance against that ridiculous finish. There’s a lot to like in this match-up for the Vols. They just can’t let Jones wreck it by himself.

7:00 PM, SEC Network. You like the improvement from many of this team’s pieces. Now is the time for that improvement to lead to wins.

Go Vols.

Tennessee-Arkansas four factors preview: Save yourself with rebounds!

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Arkansas Razorbacks. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

Summary and Score Prediction

The forecast for tonight against the Hogs calls not only for still more rain, but for more poor shooting percentages and more turnovers. In the midst of those dark skies, though, there is a shining beacon of light in the fact that Arkansas thinks rebounds have cooties and just won’t touch them. For a team struggling to shoot the ball but full of swagger on the other end, this is fantastic news and provides the best opportunity to turn all those lemons into lemonade. Also, if the Vols will just bang a little instead of shoot a lot, the Hogs will put them on the line.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. Rebound. When you shoot, you’re likely going to miss, but the Hogs will let you try again if you just go get the ball.
  2. When you get a rebound, go up toward to rim through a defender and get to the foul line.
  3. Rebound. You can frustrate Arkansas into bad shots, and they don’t like offensive boards, so give them one bad shot only.

Vegas likes the Vols by 2.5-3, but KenPom calls this one a toss-up and puts the score at Tennessee 66, Arkansas 65. Buckle up!

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Kentucky and Wisconsin, and quite a bit better than the Vols, as are most teams.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Oof. These guys are downright Scroogy. Sharing is caring, y’all.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Either these guys are allergic to the offensive glass or they never miss. I’m going with the former.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most like Washington and Mississippi State, these guys are getting to the line. Tennessee’s getting better, if they can just remember that the road to the foul line goes through defenders in a straight line to the rim rather than by trying to shoot over them.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Man, oh man. Will the Vols ever catch a break? Maybe the reason they’re not shooting well is that they’re playing really good shooting defenses every time they step on the court. On the other hand, defensive shooting percentage is still holding . . . steady.

Turnover %

Conclusions

LOL. This is like leaving the door wide open for a master burglar. Get ready to cringe. Oh, and they won’t return the favor because SCROOGE.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Not only are the Hogs allergic to the offensive glass, it looks like they just don’t like rebounding period. This is good news, both for a good shooting defense and a bad shooting offense.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

The Hogs will let you get to the foul line if only you decide to make it a priority. Do the Vols want to shoot free throws? Stay tuned!

Go Vols.

Kentucky 77 Tennessee 64 – Our Chances

You have to love this Tennessee team. On the Vol Network postgame, Bob Kesling said John Fulkerson drew 12 of Kentucky’s 21 fouls, he of the fresh haircut and 16 points. I’m not sure Fulkerson was ever supposed to be Plan B for this team, and now he’s Plan A against Kentucky. Santiago Vescovi has been here for a heartbeat, and can be a feast or a famine every time he touches the ball. Today he scored 18 points and only turned it over thrice…

It wasn’t enough today. It was enough to give the Vols a chance: down five with 2:30 to play, Jordan Bowden got as good of a look as you could ask for against these guys, and just missed. Tennessee shot 7-of-26 from the arc; they can survive South Carolina and Alabama at a percentage like that, but not Kentucky. And these particular Cats are ruthless at the free throw line and really good at getting there: 22-of-25 today, taking advantage of every opportunity and giving the Vols no second chances after that missed three.

Barnes said in the postgame that this team is getting better, and he’s right. It’s not just a static “good game” idea that the Vols had a shot against Kentucky without Lamonte Turner and Josiah James. Fulkerson is so much more than we thought he could be, Pons means you’re never quite sure you’re beat on a play, and when Vescovi feasts the whole team eats well.

They’re running out of chances to get better fast enough to make the dance floor: the Vols fall to 13-10 (5-5) with a quick, tough turnaround in hosting Arkansas on Tuesday night. But at least this ragtag group of players, in playing hard and being fun to root for, is giving us more than just an, “Oh well, wait til the freshmen get here.” Today’s performance was another reason to be excited about getting Fulkerson, Pons, and Vescovi back next season too.

Kentucky snaps a four-game losing streak in Knoxville, and moves into a three-way tie with Auburn and LSU at 8-2 in league play. The Vols need wins. I don’t know if they’ll get better in ways that lead to the bracket. But there was still some in encouragement in the way they played today, even in having to let go of a streak we thoroughly enjoyed against Kentucky.

Keep The Blue Out

Once upon a time, Kentucky won 11 straight in this series. Jerry Green’s Vols broke that streak in Rupp Arena, and Tennessee won four of seven from 1999-2002. Then Kentucky was at it again, winning eight in a row.

Bruce Pearl’s Vols broke that streak, also in Rupp Arena. Pearl finished his time in Knoxville at 4-9 against the Cats – which was progress considering where we’d been in this rivalry – but that came after a 3-3 split his first three years. The Vols beat #2 Kentucky in Knoxville in 2010, but that was Tennessee’s only win in a ten game stretch against the Cats.

Kentucky’s last win in Knoxville during that stretch was in 2012, when the eventual national champions escaped with a three-point win in Cuonzo Martin’s first season. The next year in Knoxville, the Vols unleashed a shocking 30-point beat down on Kentucky. A temporary bad scheduling idea from the league office meant the game wasn’t played in Knoxville in 2014. Kentucky’s almost-undefeated juggernaut won in Knoxville against Donnie Tyndall’s squad in 2015.

And then Rick Barnes arrived. The Vols are 6-4 against Kentucky since then, 4-0 in Knoxville.

The Cats have one victory in Knoxville in the last seven years.

Any win over these guys is always special. But there was a time when any win was an oasis in the desert. There was a time when Kentucky fans filled the upper deck with an expectation of an easy trip to Knoxville. For Tennessee to turn the tide in this rivalry this way, especially in Knoxville, is unheard of in my lifetime. It’s a great season to be a Tennessee Vol.

Every Kentucky squad to roll through here in Barnes’ tenure has been ranked, as you’d expect. Tennessee beat the Cats in Knoxville at #20, #4, #17, and #4. And we’re getting ready to catch them at #15.

They did it by shooting 30-of-34 at the free throw line in 2016. They did it with an all-time J.P. Prince stat line from freshman Grant Williams in 2017 (13 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 blocks, 3 steals, 0 turnovers, and the game-winner). They did it with a 16-3 second half run in 2018, erasing an eight-point halftime deficit. And last year they did it with defense, holding Kentucky to 14 field goals and 31.8% from the floor.

There’s no one way it’s happened for Barnes. Many of the heroes of the last three wins are gone, but the Vols also beat Kentucky with 18 points and 13 rebounds from Armani Moore in 2016, and 25 points from Robert Hubbs in 2015. Barnes has found a way to get the best from everyone, not just the superstars, in this match-up in Knoxville. We will need it to keep this thing going.

There is no March without February

The bracket remains a simple computation: Tennessee needs wins, and the schedule is strong enough that just about any path to 18-19 regular season wins gets you in the conversation. Home wins are easier, and getting Kentucky up on the board certainly looks better. This is the first of two shots the Vols will get at the Cats, with two more against Auburn also on the horizon. This team will have its chances for marquee wins. Might as well start here.

To do that, Tennessee needs to take advantage of both the good news and the bad news in this match-up. First, the good news: for a Tennessee team that struggles so mightily with turnovers, Kentucky doesn’t present much of a challenge on paper. The Cats are 280th nationally in turnovers forced, 305th in steals forced. Like the Vols and plenty of Calipari teams of the past, they like to block shots and let that create the necessary havoc defensively without having to gamble and give up easy buckets.

…with one notable exception: Ashton Hagans, who will almost certainly go against Santiago Vescovi when both are in the game. Hagans is 74th nationally in steals, and Vescovi is currently giving it away on around 30% of his possessions. If Josiah James doesn’t play again, it puts a lot of pressure minutes on Vescovi (and Jordan Bowden, who is typically much better with ball security). Hagans is good enough to disrupt this whole equation by himself. If that happens, the Vols will have a very difficult time getting this done.

On the other end of the floor, Kentucky presents a similar challenge to the Mississippi State squad that decimated Tennessee’s defense in the second half. The Cats like to run three guards with two elite big men: 6’11” Nick Richards and 6’10” E.J. Montgomery. Richards in particular has been on a tear, averaging 18.5 points and 10 rebounds over Kentucky’s last six games against a really tough schedule. Auburn did a good job limiting him without fouling, but he shot 14 free throws against Texas Tech and 15 against Mississippi State.

The Vols were the aggressor against Alabama, and as was the case with the home win over South Carolina, the free throw line made all the difference. Kentucky is typically the aggressor: fifth nationally in free throw rate.

Watch the lineups in this one, especially if James doesn’t play again. The Vols made most of their hay against Alabama with Uros Plavsic in foul trouble; this is a big-boy spot for him. Maybe we walk away from this one just shaking our heads and saying Kentucky’s bigs were a bad match-up for us. But we’ve seen Pons and Fulkerson hold their own against elite bigs from Washington; we’ve just also seen everyone get carved up by Mississippi State’s. Which way is this one going to go?

Saturday, 1:00 PM, CBS. Can Knoxville come alive again for the Vols against Big Blue Nation? Can Tennessee make win #14 their best one yet?

Go Vols.

Tennessee-Kentucky four factors preview: Queue up the Alabama playlist

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Kentucky Wildcats. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

It should come as no surprise at this point that a Tennessee opponent has better shooting numbers than the Vols. Turnovers and offensive rebounds look about even, but Kentucky is better at defensive rebounds and getting to the free-throw line.

Summary and Score Prediction

Shooting Blues, the Vols got ’em and probably aren’t getting rid of them tomorrow against Kentucky, but should be kept in the game by their shooting defense. Expect no surprises relating to turnovers for either team, but expect a fair amount of frustration in the form of offensive boards and trips to the free-throw line for Kentucky.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. As always, make the most of the advantage on defense because the offense is probably going to need it.
  2. Minimize Kentucky’s offensive boards by boxing out and getting the ball after missed shots.
  3. That thing you did against Alabama to buck the trend of them living at the line? Do that again against the guys in blue.

KenPom gives Tennessee a somewhat surprising 51% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 66, Kentucky 65. WooGoVols!

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Cincinnati and Wisconsin, and quite a bit better than the Vols.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Well, turnovers per game may look even, but turnover percentage is a different story. Among Tennessee’s prior opponents, Kentucky is most like Chattanooga and VCU, and they appear to be much better than the Vols.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Most like Florida State and Murray State. Not a whole lot better than Tennessee.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Oof. The best team we’ve played so far this season at getting to the line. But here’s a bit of good news: Alabama averages nearly 29 trips to the line per game, and against Tennessee they only got there 8 times. More of that magic, please.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Ugh. The crystal ball says more frustrating shooting percentages for the Vols tomorrow against the Wildcats. Fortunately, they should have some trouble with Tennessee’s defense, too.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Tennessee comes bearing gifts, but apparently Kentucky is too proud to take charity or something. On the other end, the Wildcats do a better job of protecting the ball once they have it, but the Vols are better burglars. Weakness on weakness and meh against meh.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

The news here is that Tennessee is all too willing to give up offensive boards, so Kentucky could go on a spree. The Vols are getting better at this, though, so maybe not.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

These numbers suggest that we could get to the line some but they could spend most of the game there. As I said before, the good news is that this spot forecasted terribly for the Alabama game, and the Vols shot 32 free throws to the Tide’s 8. Again! Again! Again!

Go Vols.

Tennessee 69 Alabama 68 – Not So Fast

No Josiah James for the second game in a row, Bama on fire from three, foul trouble taking Uros Plavisc out of the equation…you’d be forgiven for shutting this thing down as it neared halftime. Alabama took a 39-24 lead with 1:49 to play in the first half after Plavsic picked up his third foul on a dead ball technical, sending some frustration Alabama’s way via a shot to the ribcage.

It wasn’t the sort of moment that felt like a turning point for Tennessee, because things genuinely felt too far gone. The Vols were staring at 12-10 (4-5) with an uphill climb in front of them on the schedule, ineffective in so many ways since almost winning at Kansas.

But the Vols did the same thing in that last 1:49 that got them all the way back in the next 20 minutes. Jordan Bowden hit two free throws. John Fulkerson hit two more. The Vols forced a turnover. And Fulkerson hit a big shot.

Alabama’s lead was down to eight at halftime. The Vols cut it to four in the first minute of the second half, then Kira Lewis hit a three, and then we stayed there for a while at 43-36. Another three put the Tide back up 10 with 15 minutes to play.

The Vols scored 36 points in those first 25 minutes, then scored 33 in the last 15.

Jordan Bowden was again a huge difference maker in the second half. He scored five straight points to get the Vols back within five, then knocked in another one to bring it down to two with 10 minutes to play. Fulkerson hit two free throws to tie it, Kira Lewis splashed a three, then Fulkerson hit two more free throws. A minute later, the Vols got the lead on two Bowden free throws. Rinse, repeat.

Bama would push back in front, but the Vols would push back. Tied at 61-61 with under four to go, we got this beauty:

https://twitter.com/TreyWallace_/status/1224874587684573186

(Uros Plavsic is the MVP of bench celebrations on this night.)

Alabama fans will be quick to point out the foul differential – 14 against the Vols, 26 on the Tide which eventually disqualified their three best post players – but we’ll be quick to point out how bad the Vols had been at getting to the line in league play, and what a huge difference it can make.

Tennessee never trailed after Fulkerson’s slam, but Bama had a shot down two in the final seconds. Yves Pons said no:

…and then made two free throws to put the Vols up four, making Bama’s buzzer three meaningless.

What a huge win, in joyous and unexpected fashion.

The Vols were 2-of-18 from three and survived Bama hitting 11 of them by way of 23-of-32 at the line. Alabama shot eight free throws. Offensive rebounds, the bane of Tennessee’s existence last week? Nine for the Tide, 19 (!!!) for the Vols. Kentucky will present a much bigger challenge, literally and figuratively, in this department, but kudos to the Vols for completely turning this aspect around.

And while the Vols still had 13 turnovers of their own, Alabama gave it away 20 times. All of Tennessee’s weaknesses saw vast improvement tonight, and it was enough for a big Quad I win on the road.

Fulkerson finishes with 22 points on 8-of-9 shooting, including 6-of-6 in the first half. He and Pons each had three blocks. Bowden struggled at 5-of-17 but still finished with 20 points because he got to the line 11 times. The Vols still got very little scoring from their bench – two from Drew Pember- but got great hustle minutes and two steals from Davonte Gaines. Santiago Vescovi was 2-of-15 (!) from the floor but earned the J.P. Prince Stat Sheet of the Night: 8 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, and only 1 turnover.

It was easy to give up on this game and, in some ways, this team late in the first half. And yet, they found a way by minimizing their weaknesses and maximizing the free throw line. It’s fun to watch guys like Fulkerson get better and then know they’ll also be around next year to play with all the new toys. But tonight’s win also keeps the Vols in the hunt this season. And Big Blue Nation is up next.

Go Vols.

Tennessee-Alabama four factors preview:

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Alabama Crimson Tide. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

The official NCAA stats system has the vapors this morning, so the defensive shooting numbers are missing. But this part of the picture looks like we’ll be screaming REBOUND all night again.

Summary and Score Prediction

Expect more shooting woes for the Vols tonight, but as always, Tennessee’s stifling defense could keep the team in the game. It will need to, because it appears that we’re looking at another game of huge disparity on the free throw line, as the Vols can’t get there and Alabama can. Meanwhile, turnovers and rebounds look about even, so winning those battles could go a long way toward putting this one in the win column.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. Make the most of the advantage on defense. If you can find your own shot to boot, awesome.
  2. They’re going to get to the line, but don’t let them live there.
  3. Win the turnover and rebounding margins by as much as possible.

KenPom gives Tennessee only a 30% chance of winning and puts the score at Alabama 76, Tennessee 70.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Florida State and UNC Asheville and much better than the Vols.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Murray State and Georgia. And basically Tennessee, too.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Most like Missouri and Jacksonville State, and not a whole lot better than the Vols.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most like Mississippi State and Kansas (oof), and much better than the good guys.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

A Vols team still struggling to find its shooting touch will probably have trouble finding it tonight. But once again, Tennessee’s shooting defense could keep the Vols in the game.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Lots of ick here. Alabama’s not especially good at forcing turnovers, so perhaps the Vols can make up some ground and protect the ball tonight. On the other side, Tennessee should get a healthy portion of freebies.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

This looks pretty even, which means winning it will be important.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Ugh. We can’t get to the free-throw line. They can. We’ll let them.

Go Vols.

Extremes, Continued

SEC play hits the halfway point this week, with LSU a stubborn 8-0 to lead the way. This is where I’d like to joke about their strength of schedule – currently 13th in league play and only one match-up against both Auburn and Kentucky the whole year – but guess who’s 14th?

That will change in a hurry for Tennessee, who catches both Auburn and Kentucky twice in the last ten games as well as four other Quad 1 opportunities. The Vols’ 4-4 start to league play and current three-game skid looks even more challenging in the light of what’s to come. But in conference play, Tennessee’s hodgepodge lineup is actually doing a handful of important things really well. They’re just also doing a handful of important things worse than anyone else in the league.

Mississippi State’s second half dominance knocked the Vols from atop the SEC defensive perch, but Tennessee is still second in Ken Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency ratings behind South Carolina. The Vols are first in the SEC in effective field goal percentage allowed and first in defending inside the arc, thanks in large part to being first in shot-blocking. And teams are shooting just 28.2% against the Vols from the arc in league play, fifth-best in the SEC.

It’s all the makings of a really good defense, except for one thing: the Vols are dead last in offensive rebounding percentage allowed. And it’s not close: in SEC play, the Vols surrender the rebound on 36.1% of opponent misses. Coincidentally, Texas A&M is 13th at 33%.

The Vols allowed the rebound on 57.5% of A&M’s misses, thankfully by far the worst number of the season. But the Vols haven’t been good at keeping opponents off the glass in league play: Missouri got 28.2% of their rebounds, and every other opponent was over 30%.

Tennessee’s defense has been really good in every other facet, but has become so bad at allowing second chances that it’s negating much of their good work. On the other end of the floor in league play, the Vols are third in effective field goal percentage, third in shooting percentage inside the arc, fourth in three-point shooting (33%), and fourth at the free throw line (77.4%). Those are really solid splits, and when combined with a really good defense, Tennessee should be winning fairly often.

But here’s the problem: shooting 77.4% at the line matters less when you can’t get there. Tennessee is last in the SEC in free throw rate, getting to the line on just 30.4% of their field goal attempts. Ole Miss is 13th at 33.3%. And the Vols are last in the SEC in turnover percentage, giving the ball away on 20.9% of their possessions (Georgia is right behind at 20.7%).

When the Vols don’t turn it over, they shoot it well (still almost exclusively a byproduct of good ball movement, as Tennessee is third nationally in assist rate). But they don’t help themselves by getting to the line, and giving the ball away one out of five times down the floor tends to prevent any real runs from developing.

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s first shot defense is really good, especially inside the arc. But they keep giving teams second shots, which tends to break everything down.

Maybe all of this gets filed away for next year if this team continues to struggle this way. But it’s strange to see Tennessee be so good at some of the core components of good basketball, but struggle so much at some of the others.

Mississippi State 86 Tennessee 73 – Extremes

If you just read the score, you might think, “Okay, tough loss on the road against a hot team, their strengths are our weaknesses, offensive rebounds, etc.” In reality, we saw a really good half of basketball from Tennessee in light of all those things. And then we saw an exceptional half of basketball from Mississippi State.

The Vols led 34-28 at the break despite no points from Jordan Bowden and Josiah James out with a groin injury. Put a pin in that; maybe we underrated his value on the defensive end. Against the Bulldogs the Vols went big in James’ absence: Uros Plavisc got his first start, and Tennessee didn’t shy away. The big fella had 16 points on 6-of-12 shooting and zero turnovers, a definite positive from today’s outing. Mississippi State’s Abdul Ado was saddled with foul trouble early, limiting their effectiveness. And the Vols came out hot from three.

Ado still only finished with six points and six rebounds. But having him on the floor alongside 6’10” Reggie Perry helped Mississippi State absolutely carve up what had been an excellent Tennessee defense in the second half. Perry finished with 24 points and 12 rebounds. But he was far from alone. Mississippi State scored in transition, broke hearts at the end of the shot clock, and repeatedly used great ball movement to get easy looks at the rim.

How easy: in the second half, the Bulldogs shot 18-of-26 from the floor. On the day they went 25-of-30 at the free throw line. They scored 58 points in the last 20 minutes.

Mississippi State had a Top 20 offense coming in, the best the Vols have faced outside LSU and Kansas. Their efficiency in the second half was relentless; it’s hard to identify a run or a big shot when they just all go in. Of their eight second half misses, ESPN’s play-by-play credits them with the rebound on six. And they only turned it over eight times the whole game. Will Warren cites it as Tennessee’s worst performance in defensive efficiency since 2004.

What percentage of blame do we assign where? Josiah’s absence? Plavsic adjusting to a much bigger role and the Vols sacrificing defense for offense? Tennessee’s defense relying heavily on shot blocking against a team where it wasn’t really available? Mississippi State’s excellence?

We’ll need more data on some of that, first and foremost how often the Vols will play Plavsic. Tennessee’s defense that rated 29th coming in now rates 48th coming out. The next test – at Alabama on Tuesday – won’t feature the same size or offensive efficiency, but the Tide do run at the third-fastest tempo in college basketball. Tennessee, as you know, does not. After that is Kentucky, which will present a similar challenge with Nick Richards and E.J. Montgomery in the post.

The real answers from what happened in the second half here – other than Mississippi State being awesome – are in front of us. The Vols just have fewer opportunities to find their own answers.