Category Archives: Basketball

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the USC Upstate Spartans tonight.

Summary and Score Prediction

Among the Vols’ prior opponents so far this season, the USC Upstate Spartans compare most closely to Cincinnati and St. Joseph’s, and the result tonight should be similar.

Here’s our humble suggestion on how to better enjoy the game tonight by knowing what to watch for:

1. Expect Tennessee to continue to work on things that are not yet up to the high standards of Rick Barnes, like tip-to-zeroes focus, ball movement to get good shots, and getting to the free throw line.
2. The smothering defense should continue against USC Upstate, making it extremely difficult for the Spartans to get anything going, especially when they also figure to be prone to turning the ball over and unable to get rebounds.

Vegas has Tennessee as a 33.5-point favorite. KenPom likes the Vols by 27 and puts the score at Tennessee 84, Saint Joseph’s 57, which translates into a 99% chance of winning.

Our toddler Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by a whopping 43 points (Tennessee 92, USC Upstate 49). Woo.

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Okay. Again, looking pretty good so far.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: They shoot like Cincinnati and St. Joe’s.

Turnover %

Conclusion: They like to give the ball up. Fun!

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Ooh. This is shaping up quite nicely.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: About even here.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols are really beginning to get their groove on offense but still have some ground to make up from a couple of clunkers early in the season. On the other end of the court, USC Upstate is in for a shock.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Again, the Vols are both really protecting the ball well and really doing a good job of stealing it from the other team. The Spartans aren’t especially adept at thievery, and they are exceedingly generous on the other end. More opportunities to improve shooting for the Vols!

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Woo, more green-on-red. The Vols are rebounding really well on both ends of the court, and the Spartans, well, the Spartans are not. Still more opportunities for the Vols to improve their shooting!

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Along with continuing to improve their shooting percentages, the Vols have also been improving their ability to get to the free throw line. But as with shooting, they still have some ground to cover on the free-throw front. The Spartans aren’t just going to give this to them.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Gameplan for Tennessee’s game against the St. Joseph’s Hawks tonight.

Summary and Score Prediction

You have to hand it to Saint Joseph’s: Three of their first five games (including tonight against the Vols) will be against Top 10 teams. Keep that in mind when you cast a dismissive glance at their stats to date. On the other hand, the Vols aren’t likely to make things any easier for the Hawks tonight, and their stats will likely hold until their schedule lets up. Which shouldn’t be tonight.

Tennessee should have a chance to further improve its shooting percentages this evening and should be able to continue its dominance on the defensive end, forcing turnovers and tough shots without fouling and rebounding many of the misses. Bottom line: Tennessee appears to have the advantage in every facet of the game tonight.

So here’s our humble suggestion on how to better enjoy the game tonight by knowing what to watch for:

1. Expect Tennessee to have sort of a dealer’s choice, either choosing their flavor of success or just playing until the smoothest of paths becomes evident.
2. If they choose to work on things they’re not yet doing especially well, watch for the offense to continue to solve the “good shots” puzzle, increasing their percentages both from the field and from the three-point line, and also improving their ability to draw fouls and earn three throw attempts.

Vegas has Tennessee as a 20.5-point favorite. KenPom likes the Vols by 19 and puts the score at Tennessee 83, Saint Joseph’s 64, which translates into a 96% chance of winning.

According to our fledgling Hoops Statsy Preview Machine, Tennessee is scoring 116% of what its opponents usually give up and allowing only 68% of what those opponents usually get. Those numbers for Saint Joseph’s are 115% and 117%. It thinks the Vols cover pretty easily tonight. It’s also been wrong a lot, as it’s still finding its wings.

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Hmm. That’s looking pretty good so far.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Not terrible shooters at this point. Most like Cincinnati.

Turnover %

Conclusion: I know I’m supposed to be looking at St. Joe’s, but I’m getting distracted by that No. 15 ranking for Tennessee. In turnover percentage! Woo. Huge improvement from last season so far.

Oh, and I almost forgot: The Hawks aren’t bad in this category.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: More green for the Vols. Loving that. Also digging that Saint Joseph’s is really pretty bad at offensive rebounding.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Well. The green party is over, apparently. Good news, though. The Hawks aren’t getting to the free throw line any more often than the Vols.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

So the Vols have been shooting better recently but still have a ways to go. It appears that they’ll have an opportunity to improve that again tonight, although Will wisely points out that the Hawks have played a pretty wicked schedule so far this young season.

On the other side of the court, Tennessee’s defense continues to throttle the enthusiasm out of opponents and will likely continue to do so tonight against the Hawks.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Woo. We’re not giving the ball up, and we’re taking it away from opponents. Big advantages for the good guys in turnovers tonight.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Ooh! Not only are the Vols super good at offensive rebounding and really good on the defensive boards as well, but Saint Joseph’s is apparently all too willing to just concede rebounds on both sides of the court. Nice.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Well, who needs free throws anyway? The Hawks aren’t likely to even get a whiff of the free throw stripe tonight due to them not knowing the way and Tennessee crushing the compass. The Vols aren’t much better about getting there, although it looks like St. Joseph’s might make things easier in that regard this evening.

Go Vols.

Whatever is or isn’t going to happen with Jeremy Pruitt, the surest joy one can choose in the athletic department right now is back on the floor tonight at 6:00 PM against Saint Joseph’s (SEC Network). The Hawks are 0-4 but have faced the sixth-toughest schedule in the nation, losing to Auburn by five in overtime, Kansas by 18, Drexel by four, and Villanova by 20. They won’t be particularly intimidated by Tennessee on the front end, though the Volunteer defense has a way of doing that by itself once these games get going.

Tennessee’s offense is coming along nicely too, bolstered by a 103-point performance against Tennessee Tech last week. Jaden Springer became the first Vol to hit 20+ points in that contest, and is now averaging an efficient 12.5 points in 19.5 minutes per game. The really interesting thing with this group is how it feels like seven different players could lead the team in scoring on a given night.

In the early going John Fulkerson (12.8), Springer (12.5), Victor Bailey (10.8), and Josiah James (10.5) all average double figures. Keon Johnson is at 7.5 in 18.3 minutes. And we know Yves Pons (6.8) and Santiago Vescovi (5.8) are capable of an outburst as well.

The freshmen will continue to get plenty of opportunities, and Tennessee may continue to run a lot of its desired offense through Fulkerson, who still leads the team in field goal attempts despite foul trouble in the opener. But we’re also seeing early signs of the efficiency that can come from great ball movement to so many options. Not only is Jaden Springer proving to be a reliable threat (19-of-29 from the floor, 4-of-5 from three), but Josiah James isn’t far behind him (13-of-28 from the floor, 6-of-11 from three, 10-of-10 from the line).

Saint Joseph’s has a decent offense, comparable to what we saw from Cincinnati though they go about it with far less height. But their defense has struggled to keep up with better talent, 249th nationally in defensive efficiency. And 48 hours later the Vols will host USC Upstate, a team on par with the Tennessee Tech squad that just lost by 54 points.

But after that it’s a week off, then SEC play on December 30 at #16 Missouri. Two more chances to tune it up. But with nothing certain on the football side of things right now, Rick Barnes’ basketball squad is truly a gift to be enjoyed this time of year, and perhaps deep into March.

So, it’s three games. Two against what we believed to be bubble teams, though Colorado has leapt to 33rd in KenPom on the strength of two absolute blowouts since then. An absolute blowout is now the expectation tonight when the Vols host Tennessee Tech, so we may not learn a whole lot more just yet. League play is 12 days away, and the opener at #16 Missouri may indeed feature the two best teams in the SEC. More answers are coming.

But let’s take a moment to begin to appreciate what may already be true: this might be the best Tennessee defense since…ever.

We’ll use KenPom data, as usual, and call it the modern era. In just three games, the Vols have already jumped up a tier in that history, now just decimal points (22.04 points better than the average team in 100 possessions) behind 2008 (22.17) and 2018 (22.27). Cuonzo’s 2014 team is next at 23.69, with the 2019 Vols still a bit away on the mountaintop (26.24), meaning they’d currently be a little more than a possession favorite on this team. Still, through three games, this Tennessee team statistically belongs in the conversation of, “Who’s the second-best Tennessee team ever?” That’s high praise.

But defensively, these Vols are the conversation.

Tennessee is third nationally in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings, trailing Texas Tech and Clemson. That number – 86.2 points allowed against the average team in 100 possessions – is the best in Knoxville, ever.

These Vols are seventh nationally in effective field goal percentage defense, and sixth nationally in creating turnovers. Keon Johnson and Josiah James are Top 50 players in steal percentage. And they’ve done all of this, so far, without fouling much: 29th nationally in free throw rate allowed. In three games, UT opponents have shot only 34 free throws, and are hitting just 25.4% from the arc, 33.6% from the floor.

So yeah, very good, and very good nationally. But this early, I think the most understandable context is what other great Tennessee defensive teams have done. So here’s the list of Vol defensive efficiency via KenPom, which goes back to 1997:

1. 2021 – 86.2 points allowed vs the average team in 100 possessions

Stay tuned.

2. 1999 – 88.0

Jerry Green’s second team thrived on shot-blocking and was so tough inside with C.J. Black, Isiah Victor, and Charles Hathaway. Freshman Vincent Yarbrough also created his fair share of havoc, while Brandon Wharton and Tony Harris were strong on the perimeter. This group stumbled out of the gate after a #9 preseason ranking and had some bad losses against good SEC teams on the road, but closed with six straight wins including a 91-56 blowout of #23 Florida and the SEC East clincher in the regular season finale against #13 Kentucky, one of my favorite Tennessee games ever. They ended the regular season 20-7…then lost to Mississippi State in their first SEC Tournament game. As a four seed, they beat Delaware in round one…then got smoked by Missouri State in round two. But their ceiling was quite high, as you’ll see more in a moment.

3. 2010 – 90.4

The Elite Eight squad was solid all around defensively, especially when operating at full strength. But they excelled at taking away the three ball, with J.P. Prince, Scotty Hopson, and Cameron Tatum all long enough to do so. Basketball was different even just 10 years ago, and while this team could find itself in foul trouble, their ability to make you beat them inside the arc and clean it up with Wayne Chism and Brian Williams from there almost carried them to the Final Four. In that NCAA Tournament run they held Kawhi Leonard to 12 points and San Diego State to 59, ran past 14-seed Ohio (68 points), survived a villainous 31 from Evan Turner in the Sweet 16 but kept Ohio State to 73, and lost 70-69 to Michigan State (Draymond Green with a dozen off the bench). In terms of defense, this group probably got the most out of its entire lineup than any of these teams…with the possible exception of, you know, this year.

4. 2000 – 90.9

Jerry Green, Year Three: the Vols maintained an elite shot-blocking presence and added freshman Ron Slay to their arsenal, with an incredibly deep squad capable of disrupting just about any lineup you threw their way. In the annals of Tennessee basketball heartbreak, few top this group: ranked in the Top 5 in mid-February, 24-5 at the end of the regular season and SEC Champions. They too stumbled in their first SEC Tournament game, but earned a four seed and beat the defending champs from UConn in round two. The top three seeds in the region all lost in round two, meaning the Vols were the highest ranked seed left going to the Sweet 16, where they led 8-seed North Carolina late…before faltering down the stretch. These Vols were 17th in offensive efficiency, 27th in defensive efficiency.

5. 2018 – 92.4

The most recent torchbearers, Rick Barnes’ first Vol tournament squad finished sixth nationally in defensive efficiency in 2018. While the 2019 squad gave up too many threes, which ultimately cost them in the end, the 2018 squad was elite on the arc in surrendering just 31.8% from three. James Daniel’s presence is the only personnel difference there, otherwise they were the same talented bunch that spent a month at number one the following season. Without Kyle Alexander, we saw their efficiency drop in costly fashion against Loyola Chicago.

Some of the other candidates we’d think of are just behind on this list: Kevin O’Neill’s last team is seventh, the 2008 squad is eighth, Cuonzo’s last team is ninth. They were all excellent in particular areas: O’Neill’s team inside the arc, the ’08 Vols at forcing turnovers, Cuonzo’s team at eliminating offensive rebounds.

Again, it’s early. But this Tennessee team is in the Top 10 nationally in two of the four factors, and in the Top 30 in another. They’re in the Top 30 in defending from two and from three.

It’s early. But the bar defensively isn’t just high…right now, they are the bar.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Gameplan for Tennessee’s game against Appalachian State tonight. Again, it’s still quite early in the season, so be wary of the data and the conclusions, but here is what we have so far.

Summary and Score Prediction

In its first two games, Tennessee’s defense has suffocated opponents. App State’s shooting percentage looks okay heading into this game, but may not look nearly as good afterward. Plus, the Mountaineers’ tendency to mishandle the ball combined with the Vols’ regular pickpocketing of the offense looks like seriously bad news for the guys on the other side of the mountain. And finally, neither team is sending opponents to the free throw line very often, but the Vols appear more likely to get there tonight than are the Mountaineers.

So here’s our humble suggestion on how to better enjoy the Appalachian State game tonight by knowing what to watch for:

1. Expect Tennessee’s defense to really frustrate App State’s offense in a variety of ways, forcing both bad shots and a flurry of turnovers.
2. On offense, expect the Vols to focus on protecting the ball and shooting better from the field. Don’t be surprised if free throws are a bit more difficult to come by this evening.

KenPom likes the Vols by 18 and puts the score at Tennessee 75, Appalachian State 57, which translates into a 95% chance of winning.

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Baseline

First up, here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: The Mountaineers are shooting pretty well from the field. They also haven’t played us yet.

Turnover %

Conclusion: ‘Tis the season for giving!

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Not bad, but not as good as the Vols.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: About the same as our other two opponents at getting to the free throw line.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols are shooting poorly from the field, and tonight they’ll be going up against a pretty good defensive team. We’ll see whether that gets fixed tonight or not.

On the other hand, Tennessee’s shooting defense is great, although App State’s shooting offense isn’t terrible (at least not yet!)

Turnover %

Conclusions

When it comes to the Vols turning the ball over, it seems their main competition tonight will be themselves. They protected possession better last game out, but still have a ways to go.

And here’s the biggest mismatch of the game: Tennessee excels at forcing its opponents into turnovers, and the Mountaineers are already having problems in that area. Expect the Vols to make this a game of Keep Away.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

The Mountaineers are putting up good defensive rebounding numbers so far, although the Vols are doing pretty well on the offensive glass as well.

On the other end of the court, things appear to be even.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Neither the Vols nor the Mountaineers are, so far, sending opponents to the free throw line very often at all. But Tennessee’s more likely to get there than is Appalachian State.

Go Vols.

With the return of men’s basketball comes the return of the GRT Four Factors Gameplan. If you are unfamiliar with the concept of the Four Factors, you can read up on it here. It’s early in the season, so small sample sizes mean suspect conclusions, but here is the data we have so far and what it might mean for the game tomorrow against the Cincinnati Bearcats.

Summary and Score Prediction

The Vols have played only one game, and that after an extended break from practice due to pandemic-related stuff, but they do already have some to-dos. First, they need to shoot better from the field. They had a very poor night against Colorado, but really, they weren’t especially efficient much of last year, either. So I’d expect that getting good shots and knocking them down will be a priority tomorrow.

How might they do that? Solve the zone, which Colorado used effectively to slow down a Tennessee team that was threatening early to run away with it. The Vols should expect opponents to use the zone liberally until they find an effective counter.

Third, they need to kibosh the turnovers. This was a real problem last year and continued in the first game this year.

So here’s our humble suggestion on how to better enjoy the Cincinnati game tomorrow by knowing what to watch for:

1. Once Cincinnati goes to a zone defense, watch the Vols closely. Expect them to try to get the ball into the middle of the zone, and this time, knock down those mid-range jumpers. Going to the bucket and drawing fouls could work, too.
2. Limit the turnovers. This was (ahem) epidemic last year, and it’s time for a vaccine already. They don’t need to be the best in the nation at protecting the ball, but they need to stop being one of the worst. Ten to twelve per game would be much better than 15.

KenPom likes the Vols by 7 and puts the score at Tennessee 70, Cincinnati 63, which translates into a 74% chance of winning.

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Baseline

First up, here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

The Vols’ shooting percentage from the field was terrible in the first game and was hopefully an aberration. Its defense was not and was hopefully a sign of things to come.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: The Bearcats are shooting well so far; the Vols are not.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Ditto turnovers. One game does not a pattern make, but this was a problem for Tennessee last year, and it’s worth keeping a wary eye on.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Good news here, as Tennessee’s out of the 2020 gate with a decent offensive rebound percentage and tomorrow will be going up against a Cincinnati team that was merely okay on the boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: I wonder if the zone defense that Colorado played most of the first game is responsible for limited free throw attempts. I suspect we’ll get an opportunity to find out, as teams would probably be wise to continue to play zone until Tennessee proves they have an effective counter.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols shot poorly in the opener, but Cincinnati’s defense isn’t anything to be overly concerned with, so let’s see what happens in the second game. And the Vols’ shooting defense figures to be really good this season and proved it in the first game. Expect the Bearcats to have trouble scoring.

Turnover %

Conclusions

The Vols turned the ball over too much in the first game and could find out in its second whether the problem is them or the competition. They are, so far, exceptional at creating turnovers, although Cincinnati is (also so far; I’ll stop saying this now) not bad at protecting the ball.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

It appears that Cincinnati could make it difficult for the Vols to nab offensive rebounds. We’ll see. On the other side, they haven’t been terrific getting their own, but the Vols so far (I lied) haven’t been very effective on the defensive boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Perhaps getting to the free throw line will be easier for the Vols tomorrow. So far (!), they’re doing a fine job of defending without fouling.

Go Vols.

Opening the season with what we believe to be back-to-back bubble teams gives you a chance to learn about the #12 Vols at an accelerated rate. But this one in particular will help answer one of the biggest questions Tennessee faced coming into the year.

Last year the Vols went to Cincinnati coming off the loss to Memphis; Lamonte Turner was struggling but still playing. Tennessee shot 45% from the floor and 17-of-17 at the free throw line…and lost by 12. That’s because the Bearcats shot 56.4% from the floor and a blistering 26-of-40 for 65% inside the arc. The last team to shoot better than that against the Vols from two was Wisconsin in Maui in November of 2016. And Cincinnati was +11 on the glass.

Tre Scott, with his 15 points in 38 minutes, is gone, as are the Cumberland brothers in the backcourt. Guard Keith Williams is back, and the Bearcats run a lot of their stuff through him. But the biggest challenge for Tennessee against this team returns: 7’1″ Chris Vogt, now joined by 6’10” Rapolas Ivanauskas, often on the floor at the same time.

Cincinnati is 2-1 with a loss to Xavier and wins over Lipscomb and Furman (#65 KenPom). And once again, they’re getting it done inside the arc (58.5%, 25th nationally) and keeping everyone off the offensive glass (13th nationally).

What will Tennessee do against this kind of size? And can the Vols rebound well enough to win?

The answer to the latter will look long and hard toward E.J. Anosike. The Vols didn’t rebound as well as Rick Barnes would’ve liked against Colorado (-6), but Anosike grabbed four offensive rebounds in 14 minutes. That Jarnell Stokes/Jeronne Maymon role we wanted to see if he could play looked good in the opener. Tennessee still got 10 rebounds from Yves Pons and the usual better-than-you-think rebounding from Josiah James with six boards. They will need all of that and more against this team, especially if shots aren’t falling again.

Defensively, Tennessee has made so much hay as a shot blocking team under Rick Barnes: fifth nationally in block percentage last year, 10th in 2019, and always in the Top 65 nationally even in the first two years when the Vols struggled. Last year the Vols blocked 7% of Cincinnati’s shots, half their normal average. When facing this kind of height at multiple positions, it’s hard for Pons to be everywhere and hard for anyone to be disruptive. The Vols created a different kind of havoc against Colorado, forcing a turnover on 35.7% of their possessions. It’s one game, but that’s currently second in the nation. The more you force turnovers, the fewer shots you need to block.

The Vols won’t see this kind of size often, but they will again if Kentucky continues to put 6’10” Isaiah Jackson and 7’0″ Olivier Sarr on the floor together. But Tennessee’s potential to be a better rebounding team will get a stiff test early. And as was the case with Colorado, non-conference performance will matter much more with smaller sample sizes due to the virus. The Vols are still trying to add one more game, but after this one our non-conference schedule features three teams hovering in the 200+ range in KenPom, then Kansas in January.

We’re still playing college football on Saturdays (which will become clear when you see the TV schedule), but check out the opportunities for the league in basketball tomorrow:

• Florida at #10 Florida State, 11:00 AM, ESPNU
• Mississippi State vs Dayton (Atlanta), 12:00 PM, ESPNews
• Notre Dame at Kentucky, 12:00 PM, CBS
• Cincinnati at #12 Tennessee, 12:30 PM, SEC Network Alternate
• Texas A&M at TCU, 2:00 PM, ESPN+
• Auburn vs Memphis (Atlanta), 5:00 PM, SEC Network Alternate
• Alabama vs Clemson (Atlanta), 7:30 PM, ACC Network
• #6 Illinois at Missouri, 8:00 PM, SEC Network Alternate

That’s a big spot for Cuozno’s team to help us all out.

The Vols can help themselves, and help us feel better about one of their few perceived weaknesses, by how they handle Cincinnati’s size tomorrow. Does Anosike get more minutes? Do the Vols again create so many turnovers it just doesn’t matter? Will the mid-range jumper be our friend this time?

See you at 12:30 tomorrow to find out.

Go Vols.

Almost nine months ago, the SEC Tournament was cancelled just before Tennessee and Alabama would’ve met in the quarterfinals. The Vols beat Missouri in football 66 days ago, which feels more or less the same as nine months ago.

The deep frustration with football can make it easy to forget to be grateful we got any sports at all this year. Basketball, in its sixth attempt for a season opener, reminded us of some of that today. And then for the first eight-and-a-half minutes, we got exactly what we wanted: the Vols jumped a good Colorado team 19-4, and not on the strength of their freshmen but their veterans.

The Buffaloes went to zone, and it worked, bogging everything down. But the Vols never relinquished the lead, and smothered Colorado throughout: the Buffaloes shot 33.3% from the field with 23 turnovers. Tennessee wasn’t much better, but they didn’t have to be in securing a 56-47 win in the season opener.

The first impressions:

Rick Barnes still loves the foul line jumper

Instead of the threes-and-frees game the NBA has become, Tennessee continues to generate a bunch of good looks in the mid-range. It’s not just something the Vols went to with Grant Williams to let him create: Tennessee got good looks from two from John Fulkerson, Yves Pons, and even E.J. Anosike. They did not go down easy: Pons was 1-of-9, Anosike 1-of-6, and Fulkerson came on late to finish 4-of-10. But they were there, seemingly by design again.

Meanwhile, the “who takes the threes,” question: Victor Bailey early, finishing 2-of-6. Jaden Springer late, with a pair of big shots in the second half. And Santiago Vescovi throughout, who hit 3-of-4. The Vols took 19 threes on the night, still finding their best looks inside the arc against the zone. Smallest sample size, of course, but we’ll see how many possessions go through the mid-range going forward.

The freshmen will earn trust

The vets started: Vescovi, JJJ, Pons, Fulkerson, and Victor Bailey. I was curious if they’d finish, and it looked like Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer would both give them a run for their money midway through the second half. Johnson had a couple of freshmen turnovers early and couldn’t get going, but made a pair of sensational defensive plays back-to-back, showing the excellent and unusual combination of tenacity and intelligence for a freshman. He added an alley-oop and a baseline jumper in the second half. But then he turned it over twice more, and exited the game at the under four. Jaden Springer turned it over immediately following, and the Vols went back to their starting five veteran lineup.

It worked: Colorado cut it to five with three to play, but the Vols responded with Fulkerson from the midrange. The defense drew a charge, then Josiah James created a turnover the next time down, and it was free throws from there.

When you only score 56, 10 combined points from your five-stars falls into context. I doubt Yves Pons is going to finish with two on 1-of-9 shooting very often, though he was a monster on the glass with 10 rebounds. But those guys will certainly get their chances…they’ll just have to earn them down the stretch by playing cleaner basketball along the way.

Early rotations & foul trouble

“Can they win if Fulkerson is in foul trouble,” is now 1-0. He picked up his third around 90 seconds into the second half, and though the Vols didn’t excel without him, they didn’t falter. Tennessee played a glorified nine-man rotation, with Uros Plavsic making a brief appearance in the first half. Otherwise it was what we thought: the veteran starters, two five stars, and Anosike, plus six minutes from Olivier Nkamhoua. Barnes was high on him early last season when Fulkerson was still establishing himself, and he got the game one vote of confidence as a bench piece.

Otherwise the Vols hit the numbers they wanted without going much over: the starting vets all played 30-35 minutes minus Fulkerson (23), Anosike played 14, Keon Johnson played 13, and Jaden Springer 9. Again, those last two numbers will increase as their turnover decrease, methinks.

It’s one game, but the Vols leapt into the Top 10 in KenPom defense at #7. Up next it’s Cincinnati on Saturday (12:30 PM before the Vols and Vandy at 4:00), in what could be another slugfest if it at all resembles last year’s game. There is a lot to improve on from tonight, but if defense is your most reliable tool in pandemic times, the Vols looked the part tonight.

1-0.

We would’ve taken the basketball Vols any way we could get them at this point: football struggling, five games cancelled, a shot at #1 Gonzaga lost. The fifth of those covid cancellations was UT-Martin, our in-state brethren a late replacement…and 334th in KenPom. Get well soon to the Skyhawks…but now, in their place, a much more interesting option has appeared.

hey wait is this about us https://t.co/dvooqkgauY

— Tennessee Basketball (@Vol_Hoops) December 6, 2020

Tad Boyle’s Buffaloes live and die on the bubble: four NCAA Tournament appearances, two NIT’s and a CBI in his first eight years in Boulder. Those four trips to the big dance all landed between 8-11 on the seed list; they were 21-11 (10-8) and projected to be somewhere in there again when things got shut down in March.

Nevermind the usual preseason games that don’t exist this season: Colorado will give the Vols a much tougher test than they usually see in game one under Rick Barnes. Tennessee played Xavier in the opener in Cuonzo Martin’s last season and VCU in Donnie Tyndall’s opener. Since then, Tennessee has opened with UNC Asheville, Chattanooga, Presbyterian, Lenoir-Rhyne, and Asheville again. This is not a warm-up for Cincinnati on Saturday; the Buffaloes should present a similar challenge.

The loss of Gonzaga will sting on Selection Sunday. Tennessee still gets Kansas in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge, but the rest of our shortened non-conference schedule is now Colorado (KenPom #50), Cincinnati (#57), Appalachian State (#192), and a pair of cupcakes in Tennessee Tech (#321) and USC Upstate (#295). With a smaller sample size, it’ll be harder for the selection committee to differentiate between a good SEC team and a good Big East team, etc. Other than yet-to-play Tennessee and 2-0 Florida, conference heavyweights haven’t started clean: Kentucky lost to Richmond and Kansas, LSU lost to Saint Louis, Alabama was blown out by Stanford. For Tennessee, these opening games with Colorado and Cincinnati can go a long way in setting the opening tone.

@Vol_Hoops hastily scheduled game with @CUBuffsMBB was a good move for both teams. Such is life in the pandemic. Colorado PG McKinley Wright IV is one of the best in the country. Will Vols counter him with 2020 SEC Defensive POY Yves Pons, who can guard five positions?

— Chris Dortch (@cdortch) December 6, 2020

Wright was one of the best facilitators in the nation last season, both leading the team in scoring (14.4 ppg) and finishing 68th nationally in assist rate. He plays 35 minutes a night and started hot this year, getting 24 in Colorado’s 76-58 win at Kansas State. The Buffaloes have shown no ill effects from a five-game losing streak to end the 2019-20 campaign; they were 21-6 on February 22 before coming apart with an overtime loss to Utah and four others all by at least seven points.

The fun of the Pons potential – the “put him on the other team’s best player every night” scenario – is Wright goes just 6’0″. Last year Colorado also got double-figure scoring from 6’7″ Tyler Bey, a second round pick of the Dallas Mavericks. Now 6’8″ freshman Jabari Walker is off to a nice start, scoring 19 points with nine rebounds in just 32 minutes of work in the first two games. Like Tennessee, Colorado is heavy on seniors and freshmen: 6’6″ Maddox Daniels and 6’7″ Jeriah Horne join Wright as veterans, Keeshawn Barthelemy joins Walker as a freshman seeing significant action.

Boyle’s teams are usually defense-first and excel at taking away second chances. Last year the Buffaloes were 35th nationally in opponent threes attempted, but teams splashed 34.2% of those (234th nationally).

This leads to one of the most interesting questions about Tennessee: how many threes, and who takes them?

At their best two years ago, the Vols shot 36.7% from the arc, 63rd nationally, but finished just 324th in threes attempted. That offense could get what it wanted through great ball movement, a staple of Barnes’ teams here. Last year the Vols were 217th nationally in threes attempted.

The lineups will be fascinating to see by themselves. But in particular, who gets the green light to shoot, and if this thing tightens up late, who gets those looks? Last year Lamonte Turner took 4.3 threes per game while he played, and Jordan Bowden took 5.5. That’s a big chunk of the puzzle. Among returning players, Santiago Vescovi took 5.3, but that number leans a little to his initial minutes. Yves Pons took 2.8, and Josiah James took just over three.

If Vescovi is playing more of the true point guard role this year, how many does he shoot? What about the freshmen? What about Victor Bailey, rumored to be the best shooter on this team the moment he stepped foot in Knoxville?

There is no warm-up, and the outcomes will weigh more heavily in the final analysis than usual. It’s a big game, right away.

And we’re so happy to see you.

6:00 PM ET Tuesday, online at SEC Network+.

Go Vols.

The answer is, in some way, “Ask me after I’ve seen the freshmen.” Fair enough, and we’ll get our chances in just ten days. The Vols host Charlotte (16-13, 10-8 Conference USA last year) next Wednesday, then run it back with VCU on Friday. After that (still unofficially), it’s #1 Gonzaga in Indianapolis on Wednesday, December 2. So yeah, check back with us.

But in the preseason, we can still place our bets. Coming in at 12th in the initial AP poll gives this team the seventh-highest start in program history, with six others tightly packed between sixth and tenth. Via the media guide: considering the Vols have only been ranked in the preseason poll 15 times in their history, any number next to the logo is a good sign.

The projections we like most, of course, come via Ken Pomeroy. Something we’ve reference recently in football is a piece we did back in May, comparing Tennessee’s last 15 years in SP+ data and grouping those seasons into tiers. It helped frame the Vols’ 2020 preseason rating in context with the 2009, 2012, and 2016 seasons. As we called at at the time, the “We have a chance to win this game,” tier.

Obviously, preseason projections don’t mean the whole world. But it’s a helpful frame of reference coming into a year, most especially as a check on the ceiling and the floor.

Here’s the last 20 years of Tennessee Basketball in KenPom, from Buzz Peterson to Rick Barnes, placed in tiers. Where does this year’s team fall?

The Current Peak

• 2019: 26.24 (points better than the average team in 100 possessions)

No surprise, KenPom loved the Vols two years ago. The Grant Williams/Admiral Schofield squad that hit number one for a month and almost earned a one seed in the NCAA Tournament is the program’s clear high water mark in the last 20 years, and possibly ever. 2019 was also a year full of incredible college basketball teams: the Vols finished 10th in KenPom that season, but their 26.24 mark would’ve made them the fourth best team in basketball last year if/when the NCAA Tournament began.

The Fully Capable

• 2014: 23.69
• 2018: 22.27
• 2008: 22.17

Before 2019, Tennessee’s KenPom throne was actually owned by Cuonzo Martin’s last team, which took a 21-12 record to Dayton and almost made the Elite Eight. The 2018 Vols, in hindsight, may have had the clearest path to the Final Four before getting Sister Jeaned in round two. And the 2008 Vols ran into the opposite problem in a nightmare matchup with Louisville in the Sweet 16. Still, all three of these squads had real opportunities to make what would’ve been the program’s first Final Four.

The Dangerous

• 2021: 20.00 (preseason)
• 2006: 19.44
• 2010: 18.50
• 2007: 18.29

We find the 2021 Vols here, underdogs only to those four Vol squads ahead of them, and still in excellent company. Bruce Pearl’s first team in 2006 earned a two seed, and his second was one possession from the Elite Eight against Greg Oden. His fourth team got there through Ohio State and was one possession from the Final Four as a six seed. These three Pearl teams may not have had the night-in, night-out ceiling of the ones ahead of them on this list, but felt like they could beat anyone and almost did. The 2010 team in particular was playing some of the most complete basketball in its home stretch that any Tennessee team has played. If the freshmen merely meet expectations, you’re going to like keeping this kind of company in 2021.

The Unnecessary Defense of Bruce Pearl

• 2009: 16.48

In years ten thousand times simpler than now, it was one of our favorite blog debates: “Was the 2009 season a success?” A year after hitting number one, the Vols rebuilt or reloaded, depending on who you ask, still won the SEC East, and finished 21-13, losing at the buzzer in an 8/9 game to Oklahoma State. They shot too many threes. But they parlayed that season into an Elite Eight run the following year. To this day, it’s hard to group 2009 with any other Vol season, a unique year and bridge between two of our favorites.

The Bubble (but probably the NIT)

• 2002: 12.67
• 2017: 12.62
• 2011: 12.41
• 2012: 11.38
• 2003: 10.99
• 2020: 10.80
• 2013: 10.47

Once Lamonte Turner went down, last year’s team found itself in varying degrees of this tier: Buzz Peterson’s first two teams, Bruce Pearl’s last team, Cuonzo Martin’s first two teams, and Rick Barnes’ second team. All of them chased the bubble, but only Pearl’s last squad made it, and was promptly routed by Michigan in an 8/9 game in 2011. We know this kind of season well from Cuonzo’s tenure, and re-lived it briefly in 2017 before the Vols couldn’t finish off a mid-to-late-January hot streak.

That’s okay, we’re a football school

• 2005: 8.89
• 2016: 7.31
• 2004: 7.30
• 2015: 7.24

Nothing to see here these days: Buzz Peterson’s last two seasons, and the transition years between Donnie Tyndall and Rick Barnes.

Expectations are high for 2021, and rightfully so. Credit the 2018-19 teams for laying not just a foundation, but building on it higher than any Tennessee team has gone before. Whether this team can reach those heights or not in the regular season, everything is about getting to your best basketball in March, and giving yourself the best possible path through the bracket. Tennessee enters the season with plenty of promise, and it should be incredibly exciting to see just how high they can climb from there.