Category Archives: Basketball

As usual, credit Ken Pomeroy for being on top of it: in preseason, Tennessee’s fresh-faced basketball team rated an even 20.00 (points better than the average team per 100 possessions). The Vols, of course, are now done playing; with a handful of tournament games left their rating will still fluctuate slightly. But at the moment, the 2021 Vols have a rating of 19.85.

Whether using SP+ for football (more on 2021 projections using those ratings soon) or KenPom in basketball, it’s helpful to put Tennessee’s seasons into better historical context. Not all 8-4s are created equal, nor are all five seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

This year in particular felt like such a struggle to define, and still does, because there are so many unique elements. The Vols had what appear to be a pair of one-and-dones, the program’s first and only since Tobias Harris ten years ago. Keon Johnson routinely appears in the lottery in mock drafts, Jaden Springer sprinkled throughout the first round. That’s new for us.

They helped the Vols earn a five seed, where Tennessee promptly lost to Oregon State, who continued to ride an incredible hot hand into the Sweet 16 after winning the Pac 12 Tournament. It was the first time the Vols had been upset in the first round (seeded 7 or higher) since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. That’s new for us.

The freshmen had to carry the weight without John Fulkerson, which they did sensationally well at Rupp Arena and admirably so against Alabama in the SEC Tournament. But when Yves Pons also left the floor in foul trouble against Oregon State, the Vols just looked so lost. It’s a lot to ask for the freshmen on that stage for the first time. The Vols played in the NCAA Tournament without one of their most important players. That’s new for us.

In fact, part of the story of Rick Barnes in the tournament at Tennessee has been bad luck. Kyle Alexander was injured in the first round romp over Wright State in 2018, and didn’t play against Loyola Chicago where the Vols fell to a shot that hit the rim 1234217 times before going in. Officiating squabbles aside, the Vols fell to Purdue when Ryan Cline hit seven three pointers on ten attempts, many of them outrageous. And the Vols fell to Oregon State without the services of John Fulkerson. The tournament has not been kind to the orange and white.

Meanwhile, the teams that have beaten Tennessee have made themselves look even better beyond. Loyola, of course, went to the Final Four. Purdue took the eventual national champions to overtime 48 hours later. Oregon State is still playing and just beat the potential number one overall pick. The Vols may have been the higher seed in each of those games, but the difference between wasn’t as high as we thought going in.

And all of this, of course, falls into the context of the pandemic, brand new and burdensome for all of us. Whether you fire Jeremy Pruitt with or without cause, lose as a five seed, or have a Top 10 baseball team, the pandemic should still get the first and last word on your season.

“Tournament results aside,” is what I want to type, and that’s a funny phrase. The tournament is what all of college basketball builds to. But if you make it pass/fail for your season, you’re going to fail a lot more than you like, especially in the most upset-prone bracket of all-time this year (see also: the pandemic) coming one tournament after the most loaded Sweet 16 of all-time, which happened to happen the year Tennessee had its best team.

That 2019 team still stands alone, both in weeks at number one and in KenPom’s ratings. Here are the tiers we used for Tennessee’s teams in the KenPom era (2002-present) during the preseason – it’s interesting to note where the 2021 Vols will ultimately land:

• Tier A – The Current Peak: 2019 (26.24 KenPom)
• Tier B – The Fully Capable: 2014 (23.69), 2018 (22.27), 2008 (22.17)
• Tier C – The Dangerous: 2021 (19.85), 2006 (19.44), 2010 (18.50), 2007 (18.29)
• Tier D – The Unnecessary Defense of Bruce Pearl: 2009 (16.48)
• Tier E – The Bubble (but probably the NIT)
• Tier F – That’s okay, we’re a football school (Buzz Peterson’s last two years, Donnie Tyndall, Rick Barnes’ first year)

In KenPom, four of Tennessee’s five best teams of the last 20 years belong to Barnes and Cuonzo. The 2021 Vols are fifth on that list, currently first in Tier C, together with 2006, 2007, and 2010 from Bruce Pearl’s era.

I like to think of SP+ and KenPom as, “Who would I least like to face?” And some nights, these Vols fit that bill. They beat Colorado and Arkansas, both in the KenPom Top 15. They famously waxed a pair of AP Top 15 squads at Missouri and vs Kansas. And they still made memories late with back-to-back, emotionally-charged wins over Florida. They won seven regular season SEC games by 10+ points, trailing only 2008, 2014, and 2019.

And they lost three regular season SEC games by 10+ points, trailing only 2007 and 2010 among Tennessee’s recent tournament teams. They played only two one-possession games all year. Their worst lost on the slate is at Auburn, 63rd in KenPom. Only the 2006 and 2019 Vols had a better record there in terms of not losing to bad teams; this team’s “bad” wasn’t as bad as you think.

The main issue is that their good never got to be as good as it was in mid-January. At 10-1 (4-1), the Vols had only lost to Alabama in a game when Jaden Springer got hurt and, again, Pons was in foul trouble. At that point the Vols were sixth nationally in KenPom, and we were having conversations about a one seed and winning the SEC. From there, Springer was still banged up, lineups got weird, responsibilities were shifted, and along the way Tennessee went 8-8.

So, what’s the best comparison for this year? I don’t think there is one.

It has the one-and-done and off-the-court weirdness of 2011, with the mid-season fall of 2001 (so perhaps the lesson is, be careful in years that end with 1). But it also had some truly dominant regular season performances that could be matched only by some of Tennessee’s very best teams, with no very worst losses. It’s not a good comparison on the floor or in the record book, but maybe 2009 is its best counterpart, simply for the way this year doesn’t feel like it belongs with any others.

I remain grateful that they played at all. And more good news is on the way: Kennedy Chandler is Tennessee’s highest-rated signee since Tobias Harris and Scotty Hopson (again, no guarantees, see 2011). Four-star wing Jahmai Mashack joins him in the incoming class. John Fulkerson might be back. Who knows what the transfer portal will bring.

Without Keon, Springer, and Pons, it’ll feel like the ceiling is a little lower going in. But in reality, it’ll be the same question mark from this season as the Vols seek to put so many new pieces in important places.

Under Rick Barnes, Tennessee is giving themselves better chances than ever in terms of talent, beating Kentucky more than ever, and losing to fewer bad teams than ever. And though we thought the bracket was kind going in this year, the tournament itself is yet to return the favor to one of his teams.

At the same time, the tournament will always be the last impression your team leaves. As Tennessee continues to pursue just its second Elite Eight in program history, here’s hoping the Vols can build on what they learned from this year and carry the program’s history forward not just November-February, but in March as well.

Go Vols.

It’s not so much that this game represented Tennessee’s worst basketball, though that might be true of the performance. It felt more like a team that struggled in the second half of the year with its offensive identity seemed to lose itself completely during this game. No John Fulkerson, and then no Yves Pons with foul trouble. It was already out of hand when Josiah James exited with a nasty looking ankle injury. And the Vols never found the pieces to put it back together.

You can look at the minutes and see the search: Uros Plavsic early, Olivier Nkamhoua for a long stretch with Pons on the bench in the first half, E.J. Anosike in that role in the second half. Tennessee’s interior defense was completely victimized by Roman Silva as a result: Silva’s season high was six made shots in a game, something he did three times. Today he went 8-for-8. And Oregon State’s hot shooting from the Pac-12 Tournament persisted: 10-of-21 from the arc, 47.6%. In Tennessee’s last five NCAA Tournament games, opponents from the arc shot:

• Loyola Chicago: 8-of-20 (40%)
• Colgate: 15-of-29 (51.7%)
• Iowa: 7-of-21 (33.3%)
• Purdue: 15-of-31 (48.4%)
• Oregon State: 10-of-21 (47.6%)
• Total: 55-of-122 (45.1%)

The Vols allowed 31.8% from the arc all season before today, 35.4% in 2019, and 31.8% in 2018.

So one part of this, much the way we tipped our hat to Ryan Cline upon our last exit, is to credit Oregon State. Not only did they stay hot offensively, they scouted Tennessee very well and attacked with excellence where the Vols were most vulnerable without Fulkerson.

And one part of this is certainly Fulkerson’s absence. In this way too, Tennessee has fallen on the wrong side of luck in postseason play under Rick Barnes, with Kyle Alexander’s sudden absence a factor in the loss to Loyola three years ago.

Things felt up in the air without #10, though Tennessee played so well against Alabama without him you felt hopeful it might show up again. Instead, the Vols got so out of sorts so early, they never recovered. Tennessee’s own three-point shooting was poor, but that’s not the first time we’ve run into that problem this year (or recently, see 3-of-21 against Florida in Knoxville). What hurt Tennessee’s offense more was an inability to get to the line: just 12 free throw attempts, the fourth-lowest of the season. Tennessee’s 10 assists were also fourth-lowest on the year, another sign that things simply weren’t working offensively. In the late frenzy the Vols did push Oregon State over the “magic” 14+ turnover mark at 15, but by then it was too late.

There’s a lot you can say about this one, little of it good. We have little experience without Fulkerson, and no experience losing as this kind of favorite in the first round of the tournament, all of which makes conclusions easier to jump to. The loss is certainly disappointing, as is a first round exit from a 10-1 start.

The thing I am most sure of this year remains the pandemic. And so more than anything, I want to go back and say again how grateful I am that this team played basketball in the first place. I don’t know everything they went through, and I’m sure their disappointment outnumbers our own. But I’m so grateful they’ve been there twice a week for four months. And I’m hopeful the 2021-22 Vols will only be answering questions about the virus in the past tense.

Here’s a look at how the teams that took it to the Vols this season rank in KenPom’s various advanced metrics. We looked at this in hopes of discovering what, if anything, those teams have in common so we can be on the lookout for NCAA Tournament opponents that might present the most trouble for Tennessee.

Key takeaways:

• The things that seem to give the Vols the most trouble are opponents’ overall offensive efficiency and offensive rebounding.
• Things that also matter to some degree include free throw rate, overall defensive efficiency, and defensive effective field goal percentage.
• Tempo, turnover percentage, effective field goal percentage (oddly enough), defensive turnovers, defensive rebounding, and defensive free throw rate don’t seem to matter much at all.
• Oregon State fits the mold in the most-important categories of overall offensive and defensive efficiency and offensive rebounding, but only barely. Basically, in the things matter, the Beavers’ profile looks a lot like the one or two worst losses on Tennessee’s resume.

Details below.

Overall Efficiency, Tempo

What matters (a lot): Overall offensive efficiency, as every team that Tennessee has lost to, with the exception of Ole Miss, has ranked in the Top 100. Five of seven of them were in the Top 50.

What matters (some): Overall defensive efficiency, as most of Tennessee’s prior losses have come against teams that are in the Top 40. But two of those losses came against teams that were just outside the Top 100.

What doesn’t matter: Tempo seems to have no bearing on whether a team poses a threat to the Vols.

What it means against Oregon State: The Beavers fit the mold in overall offensive efficiency and overall defensive efficiency, although on defense, they are closer to not making the cut than feeling comfortable there.

Offense

What matters (a lot): Offensive rebounding. Almost all of the teams that have beaten Tennessee have ranked in the Top 100 in offensive rebounding. Only Missouri was outside that range.

What matters (some): Free throw rate. This may be questionable, but it seems like the teams that have beaten the Vols are either good or at least decent at getting to the free throw line. The notable exception, of course, is Alabama, who doesn’t need free throws to beat you twice.

What doesn’t matter: Turnover percentage and effective field goal percentage. Those things are, of course, important, but just because an opponent doesn’t have them as part of its identity doesn’t mean they’re not a threat.

What it means against Oregon State: Offensive rebounding is worth a lot against the Vols, and thanks to Missouri, the Beavers aren’t outside the danger range. But they are close enough to the bottom that it’s not a five-alarm fire.

Free throw rate could be problematic, but as we discovered in yesterday’s Four Factors Forecast, any trouble the Beavers cause there, they tend to give back with interest on the other end.

Defense

What matters (maybe): Defensive effective field goal percentage. A team’s ability to negatively impact their opponent’s shooting percentage seems to matter to a degree for the Vols. Most of the teams that have beaten Tennessee fell within Top 107 range and half of them were in the Top 60.

The other defensive categories — turnovers, rebounding, and free throw rate — don’t seem to matter much at all.

What it means against Oregon State: In the only defensive category that seems to bother the Vols, the Beavers are fairly significantly outside the bottom of the range of those teams that have given Tennessee losses.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s first-round NCAA Tournament game against the Oregon State Beavers Friday afternoon.

What to Watch

It’s important to remind ourselves that season-long identities sometimes go on hiatus come tournament time. Hey, it’s spring. The temperature is going to fluctuate. It’s madness!

Uh-oh:

• As Will pointed out in his preview of this game, Oregon State turned into a different team in the Pac-12 Tournament, going from warm to white hot beyond the arc.
• The Beavers are pretty stingy and selfish with their stuff. (They don’t turn the ball over much.)
• Pretty good on the offensive glass, Oregon State will likely get a frustrating number of second chances on any of their own missed shots.

Oh, good:

• For most of the season, the Beavers didn’t shoot very well. (How could they, with those short, stubby paws?) Although they got hot in the Pac-12 Tournament, they’ll be going up against an elite Tennessee defense with a hoppy octopus playing goalie.
• The Vols should have a huge advantage at getting to the free throw line. They’re not only good at drawing fouls, the Beavers can’t keep their paws to themselves.
• Tennessee’s inconsistency on offense is well-documented, but the Beavers’ defense suggests that it’s more likely to be a good day than bad.
• The Vols are pretty good on the offensive glass themselves, so they should be able to erase any second chances Oregon State gets under their own basket.

Score Prediction

According to that Boyds Bets table I kept referring to in yesterday’s Cinderella post, 5 seeds advance to the second round 64.3% of the time.

Vegas has Tennessee as an 8.5-point favorite, and with an over/under of 130, that works out to something like Tennessee 69, Oregon State 61.

KemPom projects this one as Tennessee 69, Oregon State 62, which results in a 74% chance of winning.

Our Toddler likes the Vols by 9 (Tennessee 68, Oregon State 59).

Details below.

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Baseline

Current numbers:

Initial simplified takeaways: The difference in shooting percentages from the floor is negligible, but the Beavers are much better from three. The Vols, however, are much better defensively from inside the arc. Everything else looks pretty even, unless you consider 1.5 rebounds per game an advantage.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Okay, so Oregon State is not especially good at shooting the ball. Most like Mississippi and Saint Joseph’s among former Vols’ opponents.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Dudes are stingy when they have the ball. Most like Arkansas, App State, Kansas, and Colorado in this regard.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Most like Colorado and Cincinnati among prior Tennessee opponents, Oregon State is a merely decent offensive rebounding team.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: The Beavers are not bad at getting to the free throw line.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Okay, so Tennessee’s season-long identity is that of a team that is only mediocre shooting the ball. The good news is that Oregon State’s shooting defense isn’t any better.

On the other end, Tennessee should have a decided advantage, as the Vols are still bordering on elite in shooting defense, and the Beavers are bordering on bad at hitting shots.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Tennessee has an unnerving tendency to go on turnover sprees. Fortunately, Oregon State isn’t especially adept at forcing turnovers.

When the Beavers have the ball, they don’t tend to turn it over much, but the Vols are professional thieves, so we’ll see how that shakes out.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Another big advantage here for the Vols on their end of the court, as they’re pretty good at earning second chances on the offensive glass while the Beavers are not a good defensive rebounding team.

However, it’s the same story under the Beavers’ basket, although not quite as compelling.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Hoo-boy. That’s a nice recipe there, with a Vols squad decent at earning trips to the free throw line going up against an Oregon State team that can’t keep their hands to themselves.

The Beavers get to the stripe at a fair rate as well, but Tennessee’s not going to help them get there.

Go Vols.

Our first impressions of Tennessee’s draw were pretty favorable: bid thieves moved some of the more dangerous mid-major champions off the 12 line, and by most any metric you’d rather play Oregon State than Georgetown in that department anyway. It’s easy to look ahead to Cade Cunningham, Illinois, or Sister Jean.

Skipping past the first round is also in our DNA: this is Tennessee’s 15th NCAA Tournament appearance since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, and the Vols have never lost in the first round as a seven seed or higher. Tennessee is 9-5 in Round 1, going 0-4 in the 8/9 game plus a loss as a 10 seed in 1989. Sooner or later, the first round upset will come for our NCAA Tournament bingo card…so how can we avoid it happening this time?

This is Oregon State’s first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2016, which was their first since 1990. You always wonder about some, “Happy to be here!” from the bid thieves. But that only tends to be the case about half the time:

Major Conference Bid Thieves, 2008-2019

Year	Team	Seed	Result
2019	Oregon	12	S16
2014	Providence	11	R1
2013	Ole Miss	12	R2
2012	Colorado	11	R2
2010	Washington	11	S16
2009	Mississippi St	13	R1
2008	Georgia	14	R1

(Here’s a good piece from John Gasaway on this from 2018)

If you exclude our SEC friends from 2008 and 2009, in the last decade major conference bid thieves won at least one game in the big dance four out of five times. Hot teams tend to stay hot.

Oregon State’s run started before the Pac-12 Tournament. After a February 20 loss to Colorado, the Beavers were 11-11 (7-9). They won three straight over Cal, Stanford, and Utah before falling to Oregon in the regular season finale. It took overtime in the Pac 12 quarterfinals to beat UCLA, but then they also took down NCAA Tournament teams from Oregon and Colorado to win the prize.

In the Pac 12 Tournament, Oregon State was the definition of hot team from the arc:

• UCLA: 10-of-25 (40%)
• Oregon: 10-of-19 (52.6%)
• Colorado: 9-of-22 (40.9%)
• Pac 12 Tournament: 29-of-66 (43.9%)

They shot 33% from three in league play in the regular season. 43.9% is how you advance.

We saw two years ago how any hot-shooting team can give you a run for your money. Not only did Auburn and Purdue hit 15 threes apiece against the Vols in the SEC and NCAA Tournaments, Colgate did it too at a blistering 15-of-29 (51.7%), giving us all we wanted in the first round. Fifteen threes is the most any opponent has hit against Tennessee in the last decade, and three different teams did it over the course of those 19 days. In good news, only one team has hit more than 10 threes against the Vols this year: Vanderbilt went 13-of-33 (39.4%) in Nashville and still lost by 12.

Elsewhere, Oregon State is a team that generally takes care of the basketball: 82nd nationally in turnover percentage, so less likely to play into Tennessee’s greatest strength. They turned it over just 11 times in the overtime win over UCLA, and only six times in the title game against Colorado. They share the ball well, 25th in assist rate. Fortunately for the Vols, they do play into Tennessee’s second greatest strength: the Beavers are 304th nationally in defensive free throw rate. They love to put teams on the line, which can get Tennessee’s offense going even when turnovers aren’t available.

Tennessee never loses as a higher seed in the first round, but hot teams off surprise conference tournament titles tend to stay hot. Oregon State has been launching from three, but the Vols have defended it well all year. And the Vols have been excellent at forcing turnovers, while the Beavers don’t give it away.

In a match-up where it’s hard for either team to lean on its greatest strengths, individual performances can make the biggest difference. Tennessee’s only quality win without a quality performance from John Fulkerson came at Rupp Arena, when Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer went off. Those two almost carried the Vols to victory against Alabama. Is there a scenario where they’re simply better than what Oregon State can throw at them defensively?

In a pandemic year that encourages us to look ahead by default, don’t skip the first round. Survive and advance is still the most important part. I’m curious to see how the Vols will attack.

4:30 PM Friday on TNT, from the home of the Indiana Pacers.

Go Vols.

It’s the time of year where everybody and their mother are looking for upset picks in the NCAA bracket. Here’s my list, in two categories: (1) Those underdogs I think are the most likely to make surprisingly deep runs, and (2) those dogs most likely to surprisingly win a couple of games but then fizzle out.

The list is informed by the GRT Statsy Preview Machine, which, as you know if you’ve been following along with us this season, is a toddler prodigy that looks brilliant one moment and then reminds your olfactory system that there’s a reason it’s still in diapers. For that reason, I’m not calling the thing the “SPM” or even the “Machine” in this post. “Toddler” seems to best get at the heart of the matter.

Underdogs most likely to make surprisingly deep runs

8 Loyola Chicago

So it wouldn’t technically be an upset if 8-seed Loyola Chicago beats 9-seed Georgia Tech. Or would it? Oddly, 9 seeds win 51.4% of the time while 8 seeds win only 48.6% of the time, according to this compilation by Boyds Bets. But really, that just means those 8-9 matchups are essentially coin flips, which is what you’d expect, right?

What would be a legit upset is Loyola Chicago beating Illinois in the second round, which they actually have a shot at doing, assuming they get past the Yellow Jackets. And if they do beat Illinois, why wouldn’t they also beat Tennessee or whoever is next? They might not turn into a pumpkin until the Elite 8, when they hit 2-seed Houston without a mask.

You might be surprised to learn that the Ramblers are 9th in KenPom. Not lying and not even wrong. They are first (in the nation!) in defensive efficiency, ninth in effective field goal percentage, third in defensive rebounding, eighth in allowing opponents to get to the free throw line, and inside the Top 50 in two more of the all-important Four Factors. For what it’s worth, our precocious little Toddler has them as 5-point favorites over the Illini and getting past the Sweet 16 before losing to Houston in the Elite Eight.

14 Abilene Christian

Teams sporting a 14-seed win only 15% of the time in the first round, but Abilene Christian is the Toddler’s pick for the Cinderella with the most staying power this year. Ranked No. 86 in KenPom, the Wildcats rank first in the nation in forcing turnovers and 12th in defensive effective field goal percentage, so these dudes have shields and moats and ramparts and turrets and other defensive metaphors. And with the exception of ushering opponents directly to the foul line, they’re not bad in the other Four Factors.

Abilene Christian has lost only four games, and two of those were to Texas Tech and Arkansas. Yes, the others were to other Who’s That teams Sam Houston State and Central Arkansas, and KenPom gives the Wildcats only a 25% chance of beating 3-seed Texas.

But the Toddler is gaga over the Wildcats. It not only has them beating the Longhorns in the first round, but beating them comfortably. And then they get past BYU.

And that’s when the Toddler begins to smell like the Diaper Genie, as it has the Wildcats distancing themselves from the other Cinderella wannabes by beating both Alabama and Michigan. The Toddler says that if he’s right, you have to take out the trash.

I, on the other hand, am currently continent of both bowel and bladder (at least for another couple of years), so no, I’m not going along with the little misfit. After all, according to this data from Boyd’s Bets, 14 seeds have a 0% chance of getting to the Elite Eight, much less the Final Four. Somebody needs to explain to the Toddler that 0% is pretty low. Imagine trying to limbo under a bar lying on the ground. Or, as Brad Paisley might say, there’s two feet of topsoil, a little bit of bedrock, limestone in between, a fossilized dinosaur, a little patch of crude oil, a thousand feet of granite underneath . . . and then there’s Abilene Christian making it to the Final Four.

Seriously, though, this post isn’t an exercise in making accurate predictions. It’s an attempt to identify which team is most likely to blow your mind. And I’m with the Toddler on the idea that that team is Abilene Christian.

This post will self-destruct when the Wildcats lose to Texas in the first round.

14 Colgate

I will not make a toothpaste joke. I will not make a toothpaste joke. I will not make a toothpaste joke.

KenPom has Colgate ranked No. 84. They’ve played only 15 games, but lost only once, and then by only 2 points — to Army, who they’d just beaten by 44 the day before. Among the 15 games, their opponent roster consists of only five different teams. Those teams generally rank in the bottom 200s, but when the Raiders have won, they’ve won by a lot.

Still, KenPom thinks they lose to Arkansas by 8 points and gives them only a 22% chance of winning. The Toddler likes them quite a bit more than that and has them sneaking by Arkansas, Utah State, and Virginia Tech to get to the Elite Eight, where they lose to Baylor. That’s a pretty good run if it happens.

I didn’t make a toothpaste joke. You’re welcome.

15 Grand Canyon

Somebody please tell me that Grand Canyon’s arena features signage that says, “THIS IS WHERE THE ANTELOPES PLAY!”

This one looks like stupid in all caps and two Os, because teams sitting on the 15 line advance to the next round only 5.7% of the time. But if any 15-seed can advance this year, the Toddler thinks it’s Grand Canyon.

Ranked 108th in the KenPom overall, the Antelopes rank 6th in defensive effective field goal percentage and 15th in defensive rebounding. They’re bad at turnovers on both ends of the floor — it must be terribly difficult to hold on to the ball with hooves — but they’re pretty solid most everywhere else. They’ve lost six games against a pretty weak schedule, but we are talking about a 15-seed here after all.

KenPom thinks Iowa wins big over the Antelopes, but does give them a 9% chance of winning, which according to my mathy friends is higher than the usual 5.7% given to most 15 seeds.

The Toddler has Grand Canyon (which has a 7-footer to throw at Garza) barely squeaking by Iowa and then going on a roll against a relatively weak bottom half of the West pod. But again, the Toddler has zero idea what zero means.

Underdogs most likely to surprisingly win a couple of games

13 Liberty

Boyds Bets says that 13 seeds win 20.7% of the time, and Liberty may be the best-suited among this year’s crop of 13s to do it. The Flames are only No. 97 in KenPom, but they’re 23-5 with a pretty decent schedule, having only lost to Purdue, TCU, Missouri, Lipscomb, and Stetson. They beat Mississippi State and South Carolina out of conference and got revenge on Lipscomb (once) and Stetson (twice).

They rank well in a couple of Four Factors stats: fourth in effective field goal percentage, 14th in defensive rebounding, and 19th in not turning the ball over. KenPom predicts a 73-66 loss (26% chance of winning) to Oklahoma State in the first round despite the Cowboys’ Four Factors numbers looking worse than the Flames’. That’s likely due to Liberty’s schedule being filled mostly with teams ranked in the 300s and Oklahoma State being on a tear recently, including beating Baylor (and West Virginia, twice).

The Toddler, though, likes Liberty a lot against Oklahoma State and then again against the Vols before losing to Loyola Chicago. This being a Vols blog and all, we considered spanking, grounding, and sending the Toddler to bed without supper, but we were concerned about teaching a young American to hate liberty. So we compromised with a stern look and a raised eyebrow.

12 Winthrop

Winthrop is a trendy upset pick, probably because of the hype around the danger of 5-12 matchups and because Clark Kellogg put the nation on alert only seconds after announcing the matchup against 5-seed Villanova. Boyds Bets says that 12-seeds win 35.7% of the time.

Sure, the Eagles are 23-1 on the season, but they’re only 91st in KenPom, and although they’re a good rebounding team and can force a lot of turnovers, the rest of their advanced stats are not all that impressive.

The Toddler does give them a 55% chance of beating Villanova, but that’s not much better than winning a coin flip. If they do get past ‘Nova, they might actually have a slightly better chance of winning the next one, but they’re not making it past Baylor.

12 UC Santa Barbara

The 12-seed Gauchos are in a similar situation to Winthrop. Despite losing only a single game since January 1, UC Santa Barbara is ranked only 69th in KenPom, and all of their Four Factors numbers range from 47 to 72. They’ve done fine in the state of California, and the Toddler does have them sneaking past both Creighton in the first round and Virginia in the next, but that’s only barely, and it all comes crashing down if they make it to Gonzaga.

First Four/11 Drake

Among the First Four, UCLA ranks highest in KenPom (No. 44). Drake is next at No. 53, and Michigan State follows at No. 56. Michigan State is crazy: Wins over Michigan, Ohio State, and Illinois (two 1-seeds and a 2-seed) in the past month, but a record of 15-12 and barely earned an invite to the First Four. Plus, even the crazy Toddler doesn’t have them getting past UCLA in the first game. The Toddler then has the chalk holding with 11-seed UCLA falling to 6-seed BYU.

Drake, though, could make a bit of a run, according to the runt still eating pureed vegetables. The Bulldogs are 25-4 with two of their four losses coming to Loyola Chicago. But they could sneak by 6-seed USC in the first round and maybe even string a couple of sneaky games together and crash the party.

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Shoot. I should have used this opportunity to write the whole post like Archie Campbell. Abilene Christian, don’t forget to slop your dripper.

When you play from the 4/5 line, you run into three truths right away:

1. You’re probably going to play one of the best mid-majors in the nation in round one. That’s how, as the NCAA points out in their series on seed history, at least one 12 seed has beaten a five 30 of the last 35 years, and the 12s win 35.7% of the time overall.

…but thanks to bid thieves Georgetown and Oregon State, two of those top mid-major AQ slots fell to 13. And the Vols drew the weaker of the two thieves in Oregon State (KenPom #85 vs the #55 Hoyas).

2. Four and five seeds are projected to play the closest matchups in round two. That’s the nature of the beast. But this year’s S-curve has its imperfections, including Tennessee – the third-best five seed in the committee’s eyes – being paired with Oklahoma State, the third-best four seed.

https://twitter.com/NicoleAuerbach/status/1371232513369210881

On the seed list, there’s not a big difference between Purdue and Oklahoma State. In KenPom, it’s significant: the Boilers are 13th nationally, the Cowboys 30th. Other four seeds Virginia and Florida State are also in the KenPom Top 15. In short, if you believe in Mr. Pomeroy’s work, the Vols drew the weakest four seed. And we’ll all hold our breath with Cade Cunningham if we both get out of the first round, but Oklahoma State is a robust 298th in offensive turnover percentage…which is the very thing Tennessee’s defense does best, 14th nationally in defensive turnover percentage. Stay tuned.

3. You’re probably going to play one of the best teams in college basketball in the Sweet 16. Illinois would certainly qualify: third overall in KenPom, winners of seven straight including now Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State, Rutgers, Iowa, and Ohio State again in a row, all on the road or in the Big Ten Tournament. That’s stupid good. And don’t worry, I’ve got thousands of words to say about Sister Jean’s squad if they get it done instead; they too would be favored over Tennessee right now.

However, this year everyone who didn’t end up in Gonzaga’s region has to feel like a winner today. That’s not to say a loss to the Illini next week wouldn’t earn the same, “Well, we went as far as we could,” good game pat on the butt. But it’s a much more interesting conversation going in.

If you use the S-curve and the seed list, the Midwest Region is actually the easiest path for the top five seeds:

Gonzaga	1	Baylor	2	Illinois	3	Michigan	4
Iowa	7	Ohio State	6	Houston	8	Alabama	5
Kansas	12	Arkansas	9	West Virginia	10	Texas	11
Virginia	16	Purdue	14	Oklahoma St	15	Florida State	13
Creighton	17	Villanova	18	Tennessee	19	Colorado	20
Region Total	53		49		55		53

Tennessee has played from the 4/5 three times since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Jerry Green’s Vols did it twice in a row from #4 in 1999 and 2000: both times they avoided the worst case scenario, and both times met a disappointing end anyway. In ’99 the Vols beat 13-seed Delaware by ten in round one, rejoiced when Missouri State upset Wisconsin as a 12 seed…and then lost by 30 in round two. The next year, the Vols survived a feisty Rajun Cajuns squad in round one, then knocked off the defending champs from UConn in the 4/5 game in round two, earning the program’s first ever Sweet 16 appearance in the 64-team field. Madness dominated the region, as the top three seeds all went down the first weekend, leaving the four-seed Vols as the favorite to make the Final Four. They led eight-seed North Carolina by three possessions with five minutes to play…and lost. It went better than we thought it would, and then it hurt more than we thought it would.

Ditto seven years later with Bruce Pearl’s second squad: more than avoided the 5-12 upset by putting 121 points on Long Beach State, then gutted out a win over four-seed Virginia in round two. This time Goliath showed up for the Sweet 16 in the form of number one seed Ohio State at 32-3 (15-1). House money, we told ourselves. Then we were up 20 late in the first half. Then we lost at the buzzer. It went (a lot) better than we thought it would, and then it hurt (a lot) more than we thought it would.

The 4/5 line was the right, fair place to send this year’s Tennessee squad. And, if you’re going to play from here, on your paper bracket the Vols avoided the tough mid-major, have the most favorable option among the four seeds, and dodged the tournament’s largest bullet from Gonzaga. If you’re going to do it from here, it’s a good way to do it.

Everything with Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament fate will continue to start with the health and availability of John Fulkerson. But if he can’t go, Tennessee’s performance without him today against Alabama was incredibly encouraging.

Credit the Tide for their steadiness, even when down 15 with 17 to play. Alabama is relentless on both ends, and Tennessee matched them today. Two of the nation’s four best defenses didn’t disappoint: the Vols forced 17 turnovers, 19 for the Tide. It became only the second time this year Tennessee lost when forcing 14+, still not a bad sign considering the opponent and the newness.

Uros Plavsic played what had to be the most minutes of his career, and I thought did well considering. Davonte Gaines got a crunch-time defensive possession and aced it against Herbert Jones, then grabbed the rebound and got fouled. Don’t let his two missed free throws erase the reason he was on the line in the first place. We’re going to need him again before we’re done.

Tennessee’s only quality win without John Fulkerson scoring 10+ points before yesterday was at Rupp Arena, when the freshmen simply took over. It was the plan from the tip today: Keon Johnson had 20 points on 9-of-16 shooting, plus nine rebounds. Jaden Springer had 18 on 7-of-17 from the floor, plus four rebounds and three assists. And they each turned it over five times. Alabama’s defense is the ultimate test this year, and they each got some right and got some wrong.

And there was no better available practice in Nashville overall than the Tide, and the Vols were still close enough to get one more exam: a game-on-the-line offensive possession, rare for this team that’s only played a pair of one-possession games all year. Victor Bailey rushed a three that didn’t come close with nine seconds still on the clock. Again, better to work that stuff out this week than next.

What of the bracket? The 4/5 line feels like a safe bet, which means you’re going to catch some of the best mid-majors or a team from “Dayton” in round one. Tennessee hasn’t played from there since 2007, so it’ll probably be a more interesting first round experience than what we’re used to.

But the Vols have to feel better about themselves, with and without Fulkerson, than when they came to Nashville. And after a rough go of it in February and early March, the Vols have now put together three really good games in a row against teams that should be seeded eight or higher in the NCAA Tournament, and Bama may still flirt with a one seed. That’s good to know, because that’s exactly who you’ll see in the Sweet 16 from 4/5 if chalk holds.

All that will come. For now:

#Vols coach Rick Barnes: I’m really proud of our guys. They’re excited about next week, and they should be. We’ve got a good team.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) March 13, 2021

And that can be true whether Fulkerson plays or not, it seems. The Vols weren’t overly fortunate today – 7-of-21 from the arc, 41.7% from the floor – but made Alabama work for everything on the other end. The defense truly is good enough to be there every night, and it won’t be Bama every night from here.

At the end of a long year, the old dancing shoes still feel good on our feet. Where to next?

Go Vols.

John Fulkerson is officially out…

Due to facial injuries sustained Friday, John Fulkerson has been ruled out for the remainder of the SEC Tournament.

— Tennessee Basketball (@Vol_Hoops) March 13, 2021

…which makes this a good time to point out that not only is Rick Barnes 8-6 against Kentucky, he’s 7-2 against Florida.

Moving forward, let’s start with Alabama. In the first game against the Tide, Jaden Springer got hurt after playing just five minutes, and Yves Pons sat most of the first half with two fouls. The result was lineup Wheel of Fortune: E.J. Anosike played 10 minutes, Olivier Nkamhoua played four, Drew Pember three, Davonte Gaines one. With no Fulkerson, we know the Vols can play Pons at the five and Josiah at the four, probably even when Bama puts Herbert Jones and Jordan Bruner on the court together. I’ll be curious to see if they also try the four-guard lineup with Vescovi, Bailey, the freshmen, and Pons. But either way, somebody else is going to have to play today, and possibly beyond.

Nkamhoua hasn’t played more than four minutes since the home loss to Kentucky on February 20. Anosike hasn’t played more than three minutes since the Georgia win on February 10. Can Davonte Gaines get in the mix? Who can give the Vols something off the bench in the short and long term?

I’d imagine Fulkerson’s status for the NCAA Tournament won’t be disclosed in a way that will impact Tennessee’s seeding. The Vols were on the five line in yesterday’s Bracket Matrix, and not all of those brackets took Villanova’s loss into account. Over at Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology the Vols are a four, with Tennessee’s Teamcast leaving them as the final four seed with a loss today, the final two seed by beating Alabama then Arkansas, and a three seed in any other Sunday scenario. My best guess would be anything from 3-5 at this point.

To that end, here’s what to watch for today, with seeds from the March 12 Bracket Matrix – you want the team in bold to lose:

• Alabama vs Tennessee (5) – 1:00 PM – SEC Network
• Arkansas vs LSU – 3:30 PM – SEC Network
• Houston (2) vs Memphis – 5:30 PM – ESPN2
• Oklahoma State (3) vs Texas (3) – 6:00 PM – ESPN
• Creighton (5) vs Georgetown – 6:30 PM – Fox
• Florida State (5) vs Georgia Tech – 8:30 PM – ESPN
• Colorado (6) vs Oregon State – 10:30 PM – ESPN

The Buffaloes, of course, are a former Vol opponent, but at this point I think the loss would be more helpful to Tennessee’s seed. There are also great games between teams the Vols shouldn’t pass in the field in the Big Ten semifinals.

We’ll have to wait on Fulkerson’s health to really dive into NCAA Tournament expectations. But if you’re curious how far they might go without him, playing Alabama today can be a blessing in disguise. Get your feet wet before it costs you the whole season…and make no mistake, Alabama is the deep end. Let’s see how well we can swim.

Beat Bama.