Author Archives: Will Shelton

The Vols led 28-14 ten minutes into the game, but it only took Auburn five minutes to erase that lead. The Vols led 61-56 with 8:30 to play, but Auburn was up 80-68 a little more than four minutes later.

When things got away from Tennessee today, they got away in a hurry. This scene played out at the end of the Arkansas game due to foul trouble, but today the Vols’ struggles were more troubling: dominated on the offensive glass at home.

And dominated is an understatement. Auburn finished with 22 offensive rebounds, only getting more defensive rebounds (24) because they grabbed two in the final seconds with the game out of reach. The Tigers rebounded half of their misses. The result:  74 shot attempts to Tennessee’s 58. The Vols actually shot the ball better (41.4% to 40.5%) and both teams were below average from three (roughly 29% each) and stellar at the line (Vols 81%, Auburn 86%). But when one team gets 16 more shot attempts, that team is going to win.

Auburn is a good offensive rebounding team, but Tennessee came into this game as a good rebounding team period…and the Vols got outworked and outplayed. Maybe the early lead took away a sense of urgency, maybe Saturday’s loss at Arkansas still loomed. Either way, Auburn looked like they wanted this one more, and they took it in Knoxville.

The loss sends Tennessee to 9-4 (0-2), and it gets no easier with Kentucky calling on Saturday. Anyone using the phrase “must-win” should step away from the keyboard, but it’s an important one to reclaim momentum and get another big win. If the Vols want to stay among the nation’s best in the Top 25, they’ll have to prove it against Kentucky. And they’ll have to bring more fire than they showed tonight to do so.

 

The turnovers in the last few minutes are frustrating, but Tennessee’s biggest cause for concern is defending great guards. Villanova’s Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson combined for 46 points on 15-of-26 from the field. And Arkansas got 61 from Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon on 20-of-36.

Tennessee countered with outstanding play from its own guards on the offensive end in Fayetteville: 21 from Jordan Bone and 17 from James Daniel. The Vols will need more of the same in the future if they fail to improve on the other end. Foul trouble was a significant factor at Arkansas, and it stands out in amazing ways in the play-by-play. With multiple players on the foul hampered with four fouls, the Vols had to defend differently.

Admiral Schofield hit a three to put the Vols up 68-60 with 4:04 to play, then picked up his fourth foul ten seconds later at the under four timeout. Arkansas scored 60 points in the game’s first 36 minutes (1.67 per minute). They scored 35 points in the game’s final nine minutes (3.88 per minute, a 156-point pace for a full game). In the last four minutes of regulation and all of overtime, the only Arkansas possessions that did not end with points were the final sequence in regulation, and two missed free throws by Daniel Gafford with 40 seconds to play in overtime.

Grant Ramey points out the Vols are 16th nationally in fouls per game. Obviously, that has to come down. We saw how quickly Tennessee’s defense – still ninth in KenPom’s ratings – can fall apart against a good offense when multiple components are slowed or sidelined with foul trouble. But even when fouls are less of an issue, Tennessee’s backcourt defense looks like its biggest weakness entering the new year.

The good news:  the Vols still had a chance to win. And they’ll get another shot at a good backcourt right away.

Auburn’s moment arrives

The Tigers haven’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 2003 and the NIT since 2009. Last year Bruce Pearl got them above .500 for the first time since that 08-09 season. This year they’re off to a 12-1 start, and are a 10 seed in the January 1 Bracket Matrix.

In classic Pearl scheduling, the Tigers faced a bunch of RPI-friendly mid-majors. They lost to Temple on a neutral floor, but have wins over Winthrop, Dayton, UAB, Middle Tennessee, and Murray State. In their marquee test, they hosted UConn in a down year for the Huskies (126th in KenPom), and won by 25.

That means their two most difficult games so far will come this week:  at #23 Tennessee on Tuesday, then hosting #22 Arkansas on Saturday.

Auburn is a lot like us. With 6’11” Austin Wiley and 6’7″ Danjel Purifoy – two of their top four scorers last year – out indefinitely due to potential ineligibility surrounding the ongoing federal investigation, the Tigers play no one bigger than 6’8″. Nine players get 13+ minutes; the Vols have nine getting 11+.

Auburn hopes to be good, but is yet to play a great team. Tennessee hopes to be great, and has played several already.

What Auburn does well:

• Defending inside the arc. Opponents shoot just 41.7% against the Tigers from two, the 11th best defensive percentage in the nation. This is in part because, like Tennessee, Auburn is an excellent shot-blocking team despite their lack of size. The main threat here is 6’8″ sophomore Anfernee McLemore, who tosses 3.4 shots per game in just over 20 minutes of action. Auburn blocks 19.2% of opponent shots, fourth nationally, and McLemore leads the nation in this stat in sending back 18.7% of the shots taken while he’s on the floor.
• Offensive rebounding. Auburn is 14th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (37.2%). 6’3″ Desean Murray, a Presbyterian transfer, has been particularly good here with 36 offensive rebounds on the year.
• Free throw shooting. Hold your 2007 Ohio State jokes. The Tigers’ 77.1% is 20th nationally; Auburn’s top four scorers all shoot between 79-82%. You do not want to be behind this bunch in the final minute.

What Tennessee can do to win:

• Defend the three. Auburn launches 26 threes per game, 8.5 of them from Bryce Brown (hitting 35.5%). This won’t be anything new for Tennessee:  Vol opponents have taken 237 threes, the 13th most any team has seen this season. The Vols give up just 34.2% on the year from three, and volume shooting teams like Furman (25.9%) and even Villanova (35.3%) have struggled to find victory that way against Tennessee. If Auburn wins from the arc, they will be the first to do so against Tennessee this year.
• Continue to share the ball. The Vols have dropped from first to eighth nationally in assist percentage, but still share the ball on 65.5% of their made baskets. Auburn doesn’t create a ton of turnovers, and won’t be the first fast-paced team the Vols have seen this year. Good offense via good shots is still Tennessee’s best plan of attack.
• Make free throws.  While the Tigers shoot their own free throws well, they’ve certainly been helped by the opposition shooting just 73.8% against them. After a solid start to the season, Tennessee is just 44-of-66 (66.7%) in the last three games. Eight missed free throws at Arkansas made a difference. Tennessee needs this to trend back in the other direction.

The Vols are 4-1 against Bruce Pearl at Auburn, but this is the first one where the ex-Tennessee coach isn’t the lead story. That’s a credit to both Pearl and Rick Barnes for getting these two teams where they are now from where they were when both took over. The Vols need a rebound after a tough loss to open SEC play. Auburn needs a win to validate their place on the bubble. It should be another good one.

7:00 PM ET Tuesday, ESPNU. Go Vols.

The first game of SEC play might be the most difficult, depending on which set of power ratings you ask. RPI Forecast uses Jeff Sagarin’s, which give Tennessee just a 28% chance to win at Arkansas tomorrow. That’s the lowest percentage left on the schedule – the Vols are currently getting 30% in Rupp Arena – and one of only five remaining games where Tennessee is the underdog (at Missouri 40%, vs Texas A&M 46%, at Alabama 48%).

So yes, it’s a big test. As we know, the Vols have already played three of the nation’s top eight teams in KenPom. They beat one and took the other two to the finish line. Arkansas is 22nd in KenPom, just behind the Vols at 19th. But this time, Tennessee has to get it done on the road.

Arkansas does not like close games.

The Razorbacks are 10-2. They beat Oklahoma (#16 KenPom) in the Phil Knight tournament 92-83, then lost to North Carolina by 19 the next day. The Tar Heels were +16 in rebounds, shot 8-of-16 from the arc, and had 21 free throw attempts to eight for Arkansas.

They blew out UConn by 35 two days after that, then lost at Houston (#40 KenPom) by 26 six days later. The Cougars were +9 on the glass, but were also particularly good at shutting down Arkansas: Houston (34.5%) and UNC (37.5%) are the only teams to hold them under 43% from the field.

Then they dusted Minnesota (#41 KenPom, 14th in the AP poll at the time) by 16 a week later in one of their best performances of the season:  57.4% from the field, 43.5% from the arc, 23 assists to nine turnovers. Since then they’ve beaten Troy, Oral Roberts, and CSU Bakersfield by a combined 87 points.

They lost Dusty Hannahs and Moses Kingsley from the group that pushed North Carolina to the end in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. But their three senior guards have been a terror: Jaylen Barford averages 18.6 points and 46.4% from the arc, Daryl Macon gets 15.3 on 43.7% from three, and Anton Beard goes for another 12.1. And 6’11” freshman Daniel Gafford has poured in 11.7 points and 6.3 rebounds in just 20 minutes of action, while guard C.J. Jones has gone from role player to double-digit scorer at 10.5 per. In both losses, this guard-heavy lineup suffered in the post:  Luke Maye had 28 points and 16 rebounds while Gafford played only 15 minutes with foul trouble, and Houston’s Devin Davis (only 6’6″) had 28 and 10 while Gafford had just five. Tennessee will need Grant Williams to have similar success.

What Arkansas does well:

• Offense, in general. 50.3% from the floor (21st nationally) and 41% from the arc (also 21st nationally). Arkansas is 19th in KenPom’s offensive efficiency ratings, and they score 90 points per game playing the 29th fastest pace in college basketball; only North Carolina is faster among Tennessee’s prior opponents.
• Turnover-free basketball. This is Arkansas’ most remarkable stat:  despite playing at such a fast pace, the Razorbacks are 10th nationally in total turnovers and fourth in turnover percentage, giving the ball away on just 12.1% of their possessions. Arkansas’ Twitter account points out Daryl Macon has 17 consecutive assists without a turnover. The primary ball-handlers are seniors who don’t succumb to pressure. This is an extraordinarily efficient offense.
• Blocking shots. The Razorbacks are 30th nationally in block percentage, sending back 14.5% of opponent shots. Gafford gets 1.9 per game, a little less than Moses Kingsley’s 2.6 last season, but still effective in limited minutes. Good news here:  Tennessee is even better at this, sending back 16.2% of opponent field goals, 21st nationally.

What Tennessee can do to win:

• The Vols have plenty of experience with great offenses, and remain one of the nation’s best defensive teams. Tennessee has played the nation’s 14th most difficult schedule in terms of opponent offenses via KenPom. The Vols are first among major conference teams in that metric, and it’s about to get better/worse. Having already faced offenses nationally rated second (Villanova), seventh (Purdue), 18th (North Carolina), and 27th (Wake Forest), the Vols now face Arkansas (19th), Auburn (29th), and Kentucky (25th) in a row. Half of Tennessee’s first 14 opponents will have had a Top 30 offense. And yet, the Vols are 35th nationally in field goal percentage defense at 39% and rated ninth nationally in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. The common denominator in defeat is an elite offense getting the best of Tennessee’s great defense:  Villanova and UNC are still the only two teams to shoot better than 40% against UT. Will Arkansas get there?
• Do you crash the offensive glass or set up transition defense? Tennessee chose the former against Villanova and North Carolina, getting offensive rebounds on 40.6% of their misses against the Wildcats and 39% against the Tar Heels. It almost paid off both times. But against another fast foe in Wake Forest, the Vols only grabbed 22.2% of their misses. However, Tennessee held the Demon Deacons to 37.7% from the floor and forced 19 turnovers. As noted, it’s unlikely the Vols will force a ton of turnovers against Arkansas. But Rick Barnes will have to choose if he wants to try to win this game with second chances on the offensive end, or if Tennessee’s first chance can be enough to try to win by slowing Arkansas down. North Carolina beat Arkansas via the offensive glass (and, I’m sure, by being North Carolina). We’ll see what Tennessee decides.
• Grant Williams dominates. It almost worked last year. Robert Hubbs got the headlines with 21 points in a four-point loss in Knoxville, but Williams had 15 points and 11 rebounds (six offensive) in 28 minutes. Moses Kingsley had just seven points. The blueprint is there against Gafford; if Kyle Alexander can help, even better.

It’s the first SEC impression, but could end up being a lasting one. All the pieces are there for the Vols to interest Arkansas in a close, great game between two teams gunning for the conference crown. The Vols have earned the fun they’ll find in Fayetteville.

Saturday, 1:00 PM ET, SEC Network. Go Vols.

 

LSU is at Memphis today, and Kentucky faces Louisville on Friday. Then SEC play tips off, with Tennessee and Arkansas doing the honors Saturday at 1:00 PM ET.

Five years ago, you could have confused the SEC for a mid-major league. Florida dominated a newly-expanded conference in 2013, rated second nationally in KenPom before bowing out in the Elite Eight. Missouri got in as a nine seed and lost in the first round. And Marshall Henderson shot Ole Miss to an SEC Tournament title, pushing the Rebels into the tournament as a 12 seed.

And that was it.

Kentucky, Alabama, and Tennessee just missed the field, each earning a one or two seed in the NIT. The league’s three NCAA Tournament teams were the only ones to finish in the KenPom Top 50. And the basement was a mess, dead weight around the necks of tournament hopefuls:  Auburn at 197, South Carolina at 209, and Mississippi State at 256 in KenPom.

Changes in coaching and scheduling made a difference, but not immediately. Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee (barely) got in the next year, with all three advancing to the Sweet 16. Kentucky’s undefeated bid was the story in 2015, but four other SEC teams made the field. But the league was back to just three in 2016, with Vanderbilt bowing out in Dayton.

While the top tier still needed work, the bottom was getting better. Two years ago Rick Barnes’ first squad just missed the Top 100 in KenPom at 103, while Missouri (159) and Auburn (189) brought up the rear. Last year the middle leveled up: while Kentucky and Florida did their usual at the top, the SEC’s Top 12 teams were all in the Top 90. Missouri (156) and LSU (172) still struggled mightily, but South Carolina’s surprise run to the Final Four gave the league some additional juice. Five teams got in, and three made it to the Elite Eight.

The SEC got five in the field in 2017, 2015, and 2011, but six hasn’t happened since 2008. By my count, seven has never been done.

This year, in the Christmas Eve edition of the Bracket Matrix, the SEC has eight on the dance floor.

The best SEC since…

This is easily the best SEC since expansion those five years ago, and has put itself in the running for a much longer conversation. The league is currently third in conference RPI and first in out-of-conference strength of schedule, with ten games against the Big 12 (first in conference RPI) still to come. Top to bottom, the SEC is one of the nation’s best basketball conferences:

	SEC	ACC	Big East	Big 10	Big 12	Pac 12
AP Top 25	3	5	4	2	6	2
KenPom Top 25	4	6	3	2	4	2
KenPom Top 50	7	9	7	7	9	4
KenPom Top 100	14	13	9	14	10	6
RPI Top 25	4	5	4	2	3	2
RPI Top 50	8	8	5	4	7	3
RPI Top 100	11	11	8	8	8	8
Bracket Matrix	8	10	6	5	7	2

Texas A&M leads the way at 11-1, seventh in KenPom. Kentucky is 9-2 and 18th.

And then there’s us.

What’s a good goal for Tennessee?

The Vols are one spot behind the Wildcats at 19th in KenPom and join Kentucky and Arkansas at 9-2 in the Top 25 in those ratings. Those four make up the league’s top tier entering conference play. Ending the season in that top tier is a great, practical goal for Tennessee.

Finishing in the top four in SEC play would both give the Vols a double bye in the SEC Tournament, and secure a favorable seed in the NCAA Tournament. Right now the Vols are a five seed in the Bracket Matrix, while RPI Forecast projects Tennessee to finish 10-8 in league play. There are no cupcakes this time around; the league will not be easy. Finishing as a six seed or higher would keep the Vols away from college basketball’s very best until at least the Sweet 16. Or you could consider the fact that the Vols have already played three competitive games with college basketball’s very best and won one of them, and just let this thing play out hoping for the most favorable seed possible.

RPI Forecast also gives the Vols a 75.7% chance to finish the regular season with at least 19 wins, which would make the Vols an NCAA Tournament lock. It’s tough to have a conversation about goals for a team that started the year picked 13th in the SEC and is currently flirting with 13th in the nation. This season so far has been a gift, but this team has earned it:  the Vols haven’t been lucky, just good.

So if they go 9-9 in league play and just get into the tournament, this year would still have to be considered a success. But the Vols have earned the right to dream a little bigger.

On that:

Tennessee’s conference schedule is relatively easy, but extraordinarily front-loaded.

As usual, the Vols get Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina twice. You know what you’ll get from UK every year. Vanderbilt is a conundrum at 5-7 with no bad losses. South Carolina is rebuilding without Sindarius Thornwell, P.J. Dozier, and Duane Notice.

This year the Vols draw Georgia and Ole Miss as their other two home-and-home opponents. The Dawgs are 10th among SEC teams in KenPom, the Rebels 13th. Vanderbilt is 12th, South Carolina ninth.

The Vols and seven others make up the top eight teams in the SEC. And of the other seven, the Vols play six of them only once.

And they will play five of them in their first six SEC games, plus visit Memorial Gym.

• at Arkansas, Saturday December 30
• vs Auburn, Tuesday January 2
• vs Kentucky, Saturday January 6
• at Vanderbilt, Tuesday January 9
• vs Texas A&M, Saturday January 13
• at Missouri, Wednesday January 17

The bulk of Tennessee’s resume will take shape by mid-January. As it looks right now, Tennessee’s only opportunities for quality wins after this are in Rupp on February 6 and vs Florida on February 21. Maybe we’ll be able to add at Alabama to that list by February 10.

So if the Vols start, say, 3-3 in SEC play? That’s far closer to pretty good than it would be to the negative overreaction some casual basketball fans would have. In Sagarin’s ratings at RPI Forecast, the most difficult game left on Tennessee’s schedule is the next one.

We’ll know a lot more about this team and what kinds of conversations we can have for March in just three weeks. Tennessee has to make the most of its early opportunities. Fortunately, the Vols have been doing that all year.

 

Tennessee played the last eight minutes of the first half without Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and Jordan Bowen, all out with two fouls. Wake Forest was up 22-19 when Bowden joined the other two on the bench. But, apparently believing Rick Barnes’ comments about this team having 11 starters, a rotation unaccustomed to playing together pushed the Vols in front by a point at halftime. This was due in large part to the play of Kyle Alexander, who scored seven of his 11 points during that stretch.

With their best players back on the floor, Tennessee quickly built a seven point lead in the second half, then kept Wake at about that distance until the 4:30 mark. The Demon Deacons scored to cut the lead to six…and then Tennessee closed the game on a 13-0 run.

Only the last two were free throws. Bowden hit a three. Schofield hit a three. Bowden hit another three. Then Jordan Bone went to the basket. Up six with 4:30 to play, up 17 with 1:23 to play. That’ll do.

This was Tennessee’s largest margin of victory on the road since beating Tony Barbee’s last Auburn squad by 28 in Cuonzo Martin’s final season. And it was an emphatic statement in the final four minutes after 36 hampered by foul trouble and turnovers. Normally a thing like Lamonte Turner and James Daniel shooting 3-of-14 off the bench would be problematic. But the Vols got double figures from all five starters.

When they were on the floor, Tennessee’s starting five showed incredible efficiency. Bone, Bowden, Schofield, Williams, and Alexander went 25-of-37 (67.6%). And Jordan Bowden, who already led the SEC in three-point shooting coming in, went 5-for-5. He is now a ridiculous 26-of-42 (61.9%) on the year.

Other numbers that would have seemed ridiculous at the start of the year:  the Vols are 10th in RPI and 19th in KenPom following this win. Even a .500 performance in SEC play should get Tennessee on the dance floor at this point. But this win continues the shift in conversation: from just trying to do enough to get in, to heading into league play trying to, you know, win it.

More on the SEC next week, as the Vols open at Arkansas next Saturday, then host Bruce Pearl and John Calipari back-to-back. For now, a standing ovation for Tennessee’s performance in the non-conference; today was a fine exclamation point.

Go Vols.

 

Tennessee…escaped? Is “escaped” the word we want to use for Wednesday night? Furman held the Vols to 37.1% from the floor and 5-of-20 from the arc; nine missed free throws didn’t help. But Tennessee’s defense was again present and accounted for: Devin Sibley scored 22 points on 16 shots, but no other Paladin had double figures and Furman shot just 39.7% as a team. The Vols were +14 in rebounding and, even when shots weren’t falling, continued to share the ball well with an assist on 17 of 23 made baskets. And, this time, a final minute that got a little too fast and loose broke Tennessee’s way.

The result: a 66-61 win, moving the Vols to 8-2 on the year. After the pre-Atlantis games with Presbyterian and High Point, Rick Barnes put three solid regional mid-majors in Tennessee’s path in Mercer, Lipscomb, and Furman. Mercer was missing their best player in a 24-point UT win, but Tennessee was appropriately challenged by Lipscomb and pushed a little too far by Furman. But the home team prevailed every night.

This means Tennessee’s resume has no bad losses. The Vols will finish the regular season undefeated against non-major-conference opponents for the first time since 2010. About half of those losses the last seven years came to traditional mid-major powers. But getting through unscathed for the first time since Bruce Pearl’s next-to-last season is still an accomplishment, especially for a team originally projected to finish 13th in the SEC.

Tennessee Mid-Major Losses since 2010

2016-17	Chattanooga, vs Gonzaga
2015-16	vs George Washington, at Butler, vs Gonzaga
2014-15	vs VCU
2013-14	vs UTEP, at Wichita State
2012-13	Memphis
2011-12	vs Memphis, at Oakland, Austin Peay, at Charleston, at Memphis
2010-11	Oakland, at Charlotte, Charleston

Somebody has to come in last in the SEC – more on that next week – but right now, each of the league’s 14 teams are in the Top 90 in KenPom. This is shaping up to be the best SEC of at least this decade, and the league appears cupcake-free for the first time in more than 15 years. Tennessee may still lose some games they shouldn’t, but there shouldn’t be any resume-crushing opportunities in the SEC.

But first:  Wake Forest.

Hey, Danny Manning!

The former LA Clipper all-star spent a decade as a Kansas assistant, then got Tulsa to the NCAA Tournament in two years. This is his fourth year in Winston-Salem; after winning just seven ACC games in his first two years, Manning got Wake to 9-9 in league play last season. That got them a ticket to Dayton, where they lost to Kansas State in the First Four.

They lost John Collins to the first round of the draft, but returned guards Bryant Crawford (16.4 points and 4.9 assists) and Keyshawn Woods (15.8 points and 39% from the arc). But it did not go well for them at the start of this season:  lost to Georgia Southern by two, lost to Liberty by 13, lost to Drake by three, beat Quinnipiac, then lost to Houston by five. Since then, the Demon Deacons have won six in a row. But Tennessee will be the best team Wake has faced, by far: only Houston (41) and Georgia Southern (97.6) have a projected RPI of better than 100 in their non-conference schedule.

Another hot-shooting foe

In 11 games, Tennessee will have faced four of the nation’s Top 20 offenses (via KenPom), and Arkansas will make five next weekend. Wake shoots 48.7% from the floor (49th nationally), 39% from the arc (54th), and 77% from the line (20th). But, again, consider the competition.

Despite their own competition, the Vols are 36th nationally in field goal percentage defense in giving up 39.1% per game. Tennessee is 18th in KenPom’s defensive ratings; Villanova (46%) and North Carolina (43.3%) remain the only teams to shoot better than 40% against Barnes’ squad. If that defense travels, the Vols can make Wake Forest less comfortable than they’ve been all season.

If the Vols want to stay in the Top 25 heading into conference play, they’ll need this win. This would also give Tennessee a second true road win, along with Georgia Tech, and virtually guarantee an NCAA Tournament bid if the Vols simply went .500 in SEC play. It would be a fitting bridge between a great start and a great opportunity in league play.

Saturday, 12:30 PM ET, ESPN2. Go Vols.

 

This loss hurts in the feels; in an environment like Sunday’s there is no other option in defeat. And that’s good:  the first ranked match-up in Thompson-Boling Arena since 2010 produced the close game we should expect from such an encounter, and the inevitable pain from losing it. In falling short (and especially falling short in the final minutes due to a pair of preventable turnovers), Tennessee missed the chance to make a memory for a younger generation of students and basketball fans.

But what hurts in the feels often finds its way to recovery in our heads. My head tells me the biggest takeaway from Sunday’s game isn’t the missed opportunity, but the way Tennessee gave themselves one. Yesterday’s performance against North Carolina proves earlier ones against Villanova and Purdue were no fluke. Tennessee has played three of the top eight teams in the nation (in KenPom). They led North Carolina for 37 minutes before falling by five. They beat Purdue while playing from behind throughout the first half and the first two minutes of overtime. And they led Villanova by 15 early and were still within three in the final minute of an eventual nine-point loss.

Don’t undervalue that Purdue win. Villanova is the number one team in the polls and the best team in the nation by a healthy margin in KenPom. But Purdue (sixth) is better than North Carolina (eighth) in the latter metric. And Tennessee made huge plays in the final minutes of regulation and overtime to win that game. “Tennessee can’t get it done against great teams,” isn’t the story. In three Top 10 match-ups the Vols are 1-2 with real opportunities to be 3-0.

This team is no fluke and no flash in the pan. In those three games Tennessee shot 36.3% against Purdue, 45.3% against Villanova, and 37.3% against North Carolina while going a combined 24-of-68 (35.2%) from the arc. These games haven’t been close because the Vols have been on fire. Tennessee hasn’t been lucky. The Vols are simply playing good enough basketball on both ends of the floor to give themselves a chance to win against the best teams in the country. That’s a real sentence in year three under Rick Barnes.

Tennessee hosts Furman (KenPom #134) on Wednesday, then has a pair of non-conference games remaining:  at Wake Forest (KenPom #65) on Saturday, and at Iowa State (KenPom #59) in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge in January. Split those games and go .500 in the SEC, and you’re 18-12 with a Top 50 RPI headed to the SEC Tournament. But Tennessee has played well enough to expect more than a, “Can we make the tournament?” conversation.

The SEC will test Tennessee’s consistency. But I don’t believe their ceiling to be any lower today than it was before tip-off yesterday; if anything, the ceiling is reinforced. Tennessee isn’t just playing with the best teams in college basketball, it’s giving itself a chance to win. The Vols beat Purdue, were within one possession of Villanova in the final minute, and gave away an opportunity to beat North Carolina. But there is nothing but opportunity in front of this team.

It’s been six years since Tennessee played a game like this, seven since they played one in Knoxville. Let’s go.

Relax about the MiG.

RPI Forecast gives Tennessee an 88.9% chance to finish with 19 or more regular season wins. Their projections shouldn’t be taken as gospel today, but become more reliable every night. A 19-11 finish projects to an RPI of 36 headed to the SEC Tournament. That dances.

Tennessee can already check the boxes next to strength of schedule, quality wins, and road/neutral wins. The SEC is first in conference RPI, has eight teams in Ken Pomeroy’s Top 50 and the entire league in the Top 85. Plus seven SEC schools in the December 9 Bracket Matrix update, where the Vols are a five seed.

Relax. Almost every night of conference play will provide an opportunity. This one isn’t about March. Like Villanova, this is about Tennessee’s ceiling.

The Defending Champs

North Carolina was 27-7 heading to March, fought off a stiff challenge from Arkansas in the second round, then beat Kentucky by two in the Elite Eight and Oregon by one in the Final Four. It wasn’t easy, but the Tar Heels cut down the nets by beating Gonzaga in the title game. Justin Jackson and Tony Bradley became first round draft picks, but plenty of talent returns; several Tar Heels have made the most of expanded minutes.

That’s especially true for Luke Maye. He averages a double-double at 19.9 points and 10.5 rebounds. Joel Berry, who did not play against the Vols last season, is second on the team in scoring at 16.0 points per game. Kenny Williams adds 13.4 points and 55% shooting from the arc, and Theo Pinson averages 9.4 points and 4.4 assists per game. Those four do the majority of the heavy lifting for Carolina, all averaging between 28-32 minutes per game.

They’ll come to Knoxville 9-1 and no fan of close games. The lone blemish came via #4 Michigan State: the Tar Heels shot 24.6% from the floor and 1-of-18 from the arc in a 63-45 loss in the Phil Knight tournament. In every other game, North Carolina has shot better than 47% and scored at least 85 points.

That includes a 19-point win over Arkansas (#30 KenPom) and a 15-point win over Michigan (#36 KenPom). In their only true road game before this weekend, Carolina beat Stanford (#110 KenPom) by 24.

Like us, with more talent

Last year Tennessee led by 15 in the first half before an avalanche of offensive rebounds buried them in the second. Tony Bradley had seven of those in 20 minutes; this time around the match-up should be more even.

It’s remarkable how similar the Vols and Tar Heels have been in the early going, having both faced enough competition to feel good about the sample size:

• North Carolina is 34th in field goal percentage (49.5%) and 59th in field goal percentage defense (40.1%). Tennessee shoots 45.2% from the floor, leads the nation in assist percentage, and is 30th in field goal percentage defense (38.3%).
• North Carolina is 42nd in three-point percentage (39.9%). Tennessee is 21st (41.2%). But neither team lives by the three:  UNC is 258th nationally in three-pointers attempted, UT 305th.
• North Carolina plays through Luke Maye (6’8″, 240 lbs). Tennessee plays through Grant Williams (6’7″, 241 lbs).
• These are two of the very best teams in the nation at defending inside the arc. North Carolina is 16th in two-point field goal percentage defense (41.6%), 32nd in blocked shots, and (like Villanova) does a great job defending without fouling: the Tar Heels are 21st nationally in opponent free throw attempts. The Vols are 7th in two-point field goal percentage defense (40.4%), and tied with Carolina for 32nd in blocked shots.
• North Carolina is 27th in offensive rebounding percentage (36.6%). Tennessee is 45th (35.9%).
• North Carolina’s only loss is to the number two team in KenPom. Tennessee’s only loss is to number one.

The biggest difference between us is tempo:  Carolina plays the 15th-fastest pace in college basketball. Tennessee isn’t slow at 117th, but has played a diverse set of opponents without being overly interested in dictating a faster pace. The Vols beat Lipscomb (12th in tempo) and Georgia Tech (343rd in tempo) in their last two games. Tennessee plays a much more balanced rotation, with seven players getting between 20-27 minutes. In their history of Roy Williams vs Rick Barnes, SB Nation’s Tar Heel Blog points out when Barnes’ teams have won, they usually beat Carolina at their own game:  crash the boards and score a bunch of points.

I expect the Vols to have an opportunity to get this thing done; Villanova looks like the best team in the country by a healthy margin right now, and Tennessee certainly had their moments then. North Carolina is certainly more talented, but Thompson-Boling will present an environment this version of the Tar Heels hasn’t seen just yet. It may simply happen that we get beat by a more talented team. But it may simply happen that the environment is enough to push a good Tennessee team to victory over a great opponent. The Vols also can’t let the atmosphere and the opportunity get them out of their own element; most of this roster knows it should have won this game last year, which should help in that department.

Sagarin’s predictor at RPI Forecast gives the Vols a 42% chance to win; ESPN’s BPI gives the Vols a 48% chance. We’ve come a long way in a short time. If Tennessee continues to share the basketball well on offense and defend at a high level on the other end, the Vols can get this done.

Sunday, 3:00 PM ET, ESPN. Go Vols.

 

There will be plenty of words to come about Sunday’s match-up between #20 Tennessee and #7 North Carolina, only the Vols’ third ranked non-conference match-up in Knoxville since Thompson-Boling Arena opened 30 years ago. But first, a note about something the Vols are doing so well it should impact their performance this season far beyond this weekend.

Last year, assists were Tennessee’s best predictor of success. The Vols were 13-1 when they had 16+ assists, 3-15 when they had 15 or less. The point guards were new, Grant Williams was a freshman, and Robert Hubbs was sometimes left to simply do it himself. In Tennessee’s season opener last year, the Vols had only four assists in a loss to Chattanooga.

Fast forward one year, and the Vols are already 3-0 with 15 assists or less, all three victories coming against major conference opponents. Tennessee is defending well enough to beat above average and even good teams, even when shots aren’t falling. This, in turns, makes Tennessee an above average and maybe even a good team.

What might make Tennessee a great team:  the Vols are first in the nation in assist percentage (stats via Sports Reference).

Tennessee gets an assist on 70.8% of its made baskets. Last year that number finished at 54.9%, 123rd nationally. In their first seasons, Jordan Bone (2.9) and Lamonte Turner (2.7) were the only players to average more than two assists per game. So far this year Bone (3.6) and Turner’s (2.4) numbers are solid, while Grant Williams has gotten involved as an inside-out passer with 2.6 assists per game. And James Daniel, who everyone assumed would provide a scoring punch, currently leads the team in assists with 4.0 per game.

We’ve been making this point since the preseason: last year the Vols weren’t a good shooting team at 42.2% from the floor, 289th nationally. They didn’t add a bunch of pure shooters to the roster this year and lost Hubbs’ ability to get his own shot. If Tennessee was going to shoot the ball better, it would have to come through getting better shots.

And through eight games against the nation’s 15th toughest schedule in RPI, the Vols are doing just that. Grant Williams averages 16.1 points in 27.1 minutes per game. And when defenses collapse on him, the Vols are sharing the ball exceptionally well, getting open shots, and knocking them down. Tennessee is shooting 41.2% from the arc, 21st nationally, while ranking only 291st in three pointers attempted. There is such discipline and intent behind what the Vols are doing on offense, paired with a defense holding opponents to 38.3% from the field.

This is a well-coached, well-executing team. And that should carry Tennessee a long way toward March, no matter happens on Sunday.