Author Archives: Will Shelton

Tennessee took Vanderbilt’s best punch in the first half, and the Commodores continued to throw blows deep into the second. A Vandy team that loved to shoot threes but had struggled to make them erased that problem in the first half with an 8-of-15 performance, pushing their lead to 10. Quietly, the Vols were hot as well. In the second half, a more perimeter-focused defense held Vandy to 3-of-11 from the arc. The trade-off was better looks at the rim, particularly for freshman Saben Lee. His 21 points could have been the story.

But Tennessee’s quiet heat from the first half was an eruption in the second, and the night ended with, “It’s great…to be…” ringing through Memorial Gym. The Vols shot 56.6% from the floor, 7-of-13 from the arc, and 25-of-28 at the free throw line.

The Vols got the lead in a little more than seven minutes in the second half, sparked by Jordan Bowden. The two rivals continued to trade blows for the next three minutes, with Vandy’s last lead coming with 9:12 to play. Free throws from Matthew Fisher-Davis cut it back to two at 7:10. But from there, Vanderbilt’s punches lost their power. And Tennessee body-blowed them to death with Grant Williams, before Jordan Bone delivered the knockout with a three to put the Vols up 10 with 2:44 to go.

But it was Williams who did the real damage all night long, turning in one of the greatest performances of the post-Allan Houston era at Tennessee.

37 points was not only a career high, it is the most any Vol has scored since Ron Slay got 38 in 2003. That means tonight Williams, who scored 30 twice last year, passed the career highs of Steve Hamer (31), Scotty Hopson (32), Jordan McRae (35), Chris Lofton (35), and Kevin Punter’s 36-point game two years ago. He did it on just 20 shots, making 12 while adding 13-of-15 at the line.

Tennessee has played so many good teams this year, we’ve gotten used to seeing the opponent have a better answer for Williams. Vanderbilt, without Kornet in the middle, had none. And it was obvious from the opening tip, a glimmer of hope at halftime that Williams’ automatic looks from the paint were more likely to keep falling than Vanderbilt’s threes.

And Williams doesn’t get 37 without Adrmial Schofield getting 22, following up his 21 from the Kentucky win. He added nine rebounds, four of them offensive.

That glimmer of hope even when the Vols were down 10 on the road at Memorial? It’s one of the signs of a really good team: you learn not to give up on them, or even to panic. There may be other down-10’s in this year’s SEC. But the Vols – other than a few late minutes against pressure from North Carolina and Arkansas, and what looks less and less like an off night against Auburn – are remarkably steady.

Tennessee thrived in the non-conference with defense; they’ll probably have the lowest field goal percentage defense in the SEC through four games, and they should be 3-1. The Vol offense has been at its best all year when driven by great ball movement and assists. Tonight, Tennessee just got the ball to its best player and got out of the way. And it’s been a long time since we’ve seen a Tennessee team willingly get into a game they need to score 90 points to win, and do just that, on the road. But yep, this Tennessee team checked that one off tonight too.

Just a big, satisfying win with a historic performance from Tennessee’s best player. The Vols go to 11-4 (2-2) and crack the Top 15 in KenPom. Up next is Texas A&M, ranked fifth in the AP poll at the start of SEC play and now 0-4 after a last second loss at Rupp. There are no nights off, but a Tennessee team capable of winning multiple ways is built to last in this conference.

Go Vols.

How’s the Kevin Stallings/Vanderbilt break-up going in year two? The ‘Dores lost in Dayton in Stallings’ last year, then became the first team to earn an at-large bid with 15 losses (as a 9 seed!) under Bryce Drew before a heartbreaking end against Northwestern in round one. So far this year Vanderbilt is 6-9 against the nation’s 10th most difficult schedule. Stallings, charming as ever, had the first losing season in 17 years at Pitt in year one, and is currently 8-8 with three double digit losses to open ACC play.

There’s no Luke Kornet, but all the other names you know and love are back:  Jeff Roberson, Matthew Fisher-Davis, and Riley LaChance all average between 11-15 points while playing 28-32 minutes. Freshman guard Saben Lee adds another 10.5 points. There’s a problem from there, though:  no one else averages more than five points per game, a hodgepodge of seven other guys playing between 11-18 minutes.

Vandy beat Alabama 76-75 last week for their first SEC win. Their next best win this season is your choice of Radford or UNC Asheville. But all of their nine losses are to teams projected to finish in the RPI Top 100, six of them in the RPI Top 50. Only a couple were particularly competitive – an overtime loss to then-#10 Southern Cal, home losses to Kansas State and MTSU by a combined eight points in the same week – but I wouldn’t sleep on this team just yet.

What Vanderbilt does well:

• Let it fly. Vandy takes 26.1 threes per game, and leads the SEC with 85 in their first three conference games. There’s a stark contrast on the stat sheet:  LaChance shoots 43.7% from the arc, Roberson 41.9%, and then a fairly significant break. MFD is at just 33.7%, Payton Willis at 35.3% off the bench, and there are a bunch of guys shooting percentages with a 1 or 2 in front of them. The team shoots 32.7%, 278th nationally. This reeks of a team that could suddenly get hot (and they did hit 10-of-25 against Alabama), but so far, being not so good on percentage hasn’t kept them from taking them.
• Limit turnovers. The Vols feasted on Kentucky in this department, but will find a different and much more experienced animal in Nashville. Or at least that was the case until South Carolina turned them over 19 times in their last game. Before that, the Dores averaged just 9.8 turnovers in their previous six games.
• Defending threes. Opponents shoot 31.4% against Vanderbilt from the arc, 47th nationally. This hasn’t made a big difference in wins/and losses:  the ‘Dores have five losses where the opponent shot less than 30% from the arc, which is fascinating. The Vols did a good job against Kentucky getting open threes against a team that typically limits their effectiveness; they’ll need more of the same here.

What Tennessee can do to win:

• Defensive excellence returns. Tennessee is still 14th nationally in defensive efficiency via KenPom, in part because we’ve played the nation’s third toughest schedule by offensive efficiency. And the Vols beat Kentucky despite allowing 46.2% from the floor. But the Vols are allowing 46.5% in three SEC games, worst in the SEC. The Vols, of course, have played three excellent offenses. But now, against a team that loves to shoot threes, on the road, in a rivalry game…the best way to win is for Tennessee’s defense to take all of that out of the equation with a return to its own excellence.
• Complement good offense at the free throw line. Tennessee’s assist rate has been a big story all year. But the Vols are backing that up with good work at the line in SEC play:  66-of-87 (75.9%) is first in makes, second in attempts, and fifth in percentage through three games. Grant Williams is what you’d expect with an average of 4.8 free throw attempts per game. But the rest of the scorers have been really good here too:  Schofield, Bowden, and Turner all have 38 attempts this year, and Jordan Bone has 42. Everybody can attack and everybody can get to the line, on top of a strong ball-sharing offense to begin with.
• Handle success. The Vols only had 24 hours to process their win over Purdue, but came out hot against Villanova before falling short. There’s a little more distance between the Kentucky win and this trip, and the Commodores aren’t as good on paper as many of the teams the Vols have already faced this year. How will Barnes have his guys ready to go tonight in Nashville in a taking-care-of-business situation?

We continue to have the television schedule of a team picked to finish 13th in this league instead of the one currently ranked first in KenPom and RPI:  9:00 PM ET, SEC Network. Go Vols.

Kentucky has a bad habit of having guys an undersized Tennessee team just has no good answer for. Last night it was PJ Washington: 13 points on 6-of-8 shooting, plus three steals and two blocks. He did all of that in just 23 minutes, which is impressive, but ultimately helpful for Tennessee, as cramps kept him from playing any more than that. Last year it was Bam Adebayo, who had 21 points on 7-of-8 shooting in Knoxville.

But Tennessee has countered with effective play from undersized forwards against Kentucky’s bigs. Two years ago Armani Moore had 18 points and 13 rebounds in Knoxville. Last year Admiral Schofield had 15 points off the bench. And last night, Schofield had 20 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 steals in one of the best games of his career. And the Vols have three straight wins over Kentucky in Knoxville (and seven of the last eleven).

The Vols broke what had been their hardest and fastest rule this season:  hold the other team under 40% and win, don’t and don’t. Kentucky shot north of 55% in the first half and still finished at 46.2%. Only Arkansas has done better against the Vol defense this year.

But though the defense struggled to find its footing early, the Vols took the thing they were best at – successfully sharing the basketball – and did it better than ever last night. Tennessee had 23 assists on 25 made baskets, 92%. With a flu-ridden Jordan Bone playing only nine minutes, James Daniel and Lamonte Turner picked up the slack with 11 assists between them. And the Vols also worked inside out, as Schofield, Grant Williams, and John Fulkerson combined for another 11 assists.

It is, obviously, the best performance of the year by assist percentage, and significantly better than anything the Vols had done against a power conference opponent (70% against NC State is the next best performance). Tennessee is back up to fourth nationally in that stat at 66.8%; Michigan State, the nation’s new number one (but probably not for long after a loss to Ohio State), is the new leader. Look at how good the performance against Kentucky was compared to the best game in assist percentage in previous years:

• 2017: Appalachian State (74.3%)
• 2016: Gardner-Webb (75%)
• 2015: Tennessee State (78.3%)
• 2014: Tusculum (85.7%)
• 2013: Mississippi State (67.9%)
• 2012: South Carolina (73.7%)
• 2011: Auburn (73.9%)

That’s as far back as the advanced gamelogs go at Sports Reference, but consider the Vols also cracked 80+% this season against Lipscomb (88%) and Mercer (86.7%). Tennessee has successfully shared the ball better in three games this season than in any other game in at least the last seven years. And the top performance came against Kentucky.

As I type on Sunday evening, Tennessee’s strength of schedule is second nationally in RPI, fourth in KenPom. That’s so impressive that, last year, you could make a legitimate argument for Tennessee as an NCAA Tournament team when they surged to number one in strength of schedule after beating Kentucky and Kansas State back to back…to get to 12-9 overall. This team is 10-4 with two RPI Top 15 victories at the moment. And at the same moment, the Vols are the highest rated SEC team in both RPI and KenPom.

Look, this league is going to get nuts. The only winless team is the one that was in the top five when conference play started 10 days ago. The only undefeated teams are Florida, who was in free fall 10 days ago and needed heroics to beat Missouri on Saturday, and Auburn, suddenly allowing us to make the argument that all four of Tennessee’s losses are to really good teams. The entire league is still in the KenPom Top 90. There are no cupcakes on the menu. That Tennessee could be objectively considered the best team in a league like this right now? It’s quite the accomplishment, one that fittingly includes a win over Kentucky.

Lots of work left to do. But lots of good work already on this resume. Don’t stop now.

Go Vols.

 

The Vols have won six of the last ten in this series in Knoxville, including the last two. On the surface it might feel like these two teams are going in completely different directions:  the Vols are a frustrating 0-2 in league play after a stellar run through the non-conference, while Kentucky followed up a frustrating loss to UCLA with an absolute beat down of Louisville and a 2-0 start in conference. But Sagarin gives the Vols a 46% chance to win; I’d expect another close one.

Close is going to be the nature of the beast every night in this league. Of the ten SEC teams to play two conference games, only two (the usual suspects from Florida and Kentucky) are 2-0. The Cats themselves beat Georgia and LSU by a combined eight points. Texas A&M was the best team in the league a week ago, now they’re 0-2 with a 22-point loss at Alabama and a 17-point loss at home to Florida. Welcome to this year’s SEC.

This Year’s Lexington D-League Squad

We bid farewell to Malik Monk, De’Aaron Fox, Bam Adebayo, and Isaiah Briscoe. In their place are, you guessed it, five freshmen.

6’9″ Kevin Knox gets 14.6 points and 6 rebounds, with 6’5″ Hamidou Diallo just behind at 14.4. Facilitating much of this is 6’6″ Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with 12.1 points, 4.1 assists, and 2.3 steals. 6’7″ PJ Washington goes for 10.6 and 5.3 rebounds, and 6’0″ Quade Green adds 10.5 per game. Knox is on the floor by far the most at 33.1 minutes per game.

What Kentucky does well:

• Defending the three-point line. The Cats give up an impressive 29.2% from the arc, ninth-best nationally. Georgia and LSU went 8-for-45 (17.8%). Tennessee hasn’t been living from outside, and as many have noted, Jordan Bowden could probably use an even greener light. But the length and athleticism you can assume from a Calipari squad is once again making it difficult for opponents from the arc:  last year they finished 12th nationally in this stat.
• Two things Auburn was good at:  shot-blocking, where the Cats are 20th nationally in block percentage, sending back 15.7% of opponent shots. PJ Washington is a factor here, but two guys playing fewer minutes are also really strong:  Nick Richards averages 1.4 blocks in 16.9 minutes, and Wenyen Gabriel averages 1.4 in 22.8.
• …and offensive rebounding, hooray! After Auburn’s absurd performance Tuesday where they rebounded half of their misses, the Tigers are fifth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at 38.1%. Kentucky isn’t far behind at 36.6%. I don’t know if we should be worried about seeing the same problem twice in a row, but I’d imagine Barnes is happy to have the teaching moment.

What Tennessee can do to win:

• Turn Kentucky over. If a young Calipari team is bad at something…it’s free throw shooting, of course (68.8%). If there’s a second option for this team, however, it’s turnovers. UK is 199th nationally in turnover percentage, giving it away on 16.6% of their possessions. Tennessee is 61st nationally in opponent turnover percentage at 19.2%. The home floor can help. The Vols have not been shy about going up-tempo when the opponent wants to run; if that happens here, Tennessee needs to come out on top in the turnover department. The Cats had 18 turnovers in their loss to Kansas; 12 of them were steals.
• Be the more mature team. Sometimes the non-juggernaut Calipari teams take a minute to adjust to the night-in, night-out grind of SEC play. The 2016 team started 3-2 in league play, 2-1 in 2014, 3-2 in 2013, and 5-5 in 2011. Tennessee obviously isn’t setting the SEC world on fire right now, but has far more experience with this routine and could take advantage.
• Bring the necessary effort. I’d wager what happened on the offensive glass against Auburn won’t happen again, at least to that extent. But Tennessee also has to focus in if it wants to keep living in the same conversations the Vols have enjoyed since the Bahamas. Winning this one should keep Tennessee in the Top 25, would give another Top 25 win to their resume, and allow the Vols to keep thinking about contending for the SEC title and a favorable seed in the NCAA Tournament. But an 0-3 start in league play keeps you out of the conference title conversation by default, and would swing the overall conversation back to, “Wait, let’s just make sure we get in this thing.” The Vols have been better than that for the majority of the year. The necessary effort against Kentucky is a 40-minute effort; many, many Tennessee teams as good or better than this one have played 32-to-36 good minutes against the Cats and lost by 6-10 points. I’d expect Barnes to get more out of this team Saturday night than he did on Tuesday. And as it’s done all year, that should be enough to give Tennessee a chance to win.

It’s just the 15th ranked vs ranked game for the Vols at Thompson-Boling; the Vols are 10-4 in those games after the loss to North Carolina. A late tip for your Titans playoff viewing pleasure:  9:00 PM on the SEC Network. Go Vols.

The Vols led 28-14 ten minutes into the game, but it only took Auburn five minutes to erase that lead. The Vols led 61-56 with 8:30 to play, but Auburn was up 80-68 a little more than four minutes later.

When things got away from Tennessee today, they got away in a hurry. This scene played out at the end of the Arkansas game due to foul trouble, but today the Vols’ struggles were more troubling: dominated on the offensive glass at home.

And dominated is an understatement. Auburn finished with 22 offensive rebounds, only getting more defensive rebounds (24) because they grabbed two in the final seconds with the game out of reach. The Tigers rebounded half of their misses. The result:  74 shot attempts to Tennessee’s 58. The Vols actually shot the ball better (41.4% to 40.5%) and both teams were below average from three (roughly 29% each) and stellar at the line (Vols 81%, Auburn 86%). But when one team gets 16 more shot attempts, that team is going to win.

Auburn is a good offensive rebounding team, but Tennessee came into this game as a good rebounding team period…and the Vols got outworked and outplayed. Maybe the early lead took away a sense of urgency, maybe Saturday’s loss at Arkansas still loomed. Either way, Auburn looked like they wanted this one more, and they took it in Knoxville.

The loss sends Tennessee to 9-4 (0-2), and it gets no easier with Kentucky calling on Saturday. Anyone using the phrase “must-win” should step away from the keyboard, but it’s an important one to reclaim momentum and get another big win. If the Vols want to stay among the nation’s best in the Top 25, they’ll have to prove it against Kentucky. And they’ll have to bring more fire than they showed tonight to do so.

 

The turnovers in the last few minutes are frustrating, but Tennessee’s biggest cause for concern is defending great guards. Villanova’s Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson combined for 46 points on 15-of-26 from the field. And Arkansas got 61 from Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon on 20-of-36.

Tennessee countered with outstanding play from its own guards on the offensive end in Fayetteville: 21 from Jordan Bone and 17 from James Daniel. The Vols will need more of the same in the future if they fail to improve on the other end. Foul trouble was a significant factor at Arkansas, and it stands out in amazing ways in the play-by-play. With multiple players on the foul hampered with four fouls, the Vols had to defend differently.

Admiral Schofield hit a three to put the Vols up 68-60 with 4:04 to play, then picked up his fourth foul ten seconds later at the under four timeout. Arkansas scored 60 points in the game’s first 36 minutes (1.67 per minute). They scored 35 points in the game’s final nine minutes (3.88 per minute, a 156-point pace for a full game). In the last four minutes of regulation and all of overtime, the only Arkansas possessions that did not end with points were the final sequence in regulation, and two missed free throws by Daniel Gafford with 40 seconds to play in overtime.

Grant Ramey points out the Vols are 16th nationally in fouls per game. Obviously, that has to come down. We saw how quickly Tennessee’s defense – still ninth in KenPom’s ratings – can fall apart against a good offense when multiple components are slowed or sidelined with foul trouble. But even when fouls are less of an issue, Tennessee’s backcourt defense looks like its biggest weakness entering the new year.

The good news:  the Vols still had a chance to win. And they’ll get another shot at a good backcourt right away.

Auburn’s moment arrives

The Tigers haven’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 2003 and the NIT since 2009. Last year Bruce Pearl got them above .500 for the first time since that 08-09 season. This year they’re off to a 12-1 start, and are a 10 seed in the January 1 Bracket Matrix.

In classic Pearl scheduling, the Tigers faced a bunch of RPI-friendly mid-majors. They lost to Temple on a neutral floor, but have wins over Winthrop, Dayton, UAB, Middle Tennessee, and Murray State. In their marquee test, they hosted UConn in a down year for the Huskies (126th in KenPom), and won by 25.

That means their two most difficult games so far will come this week:  at #23 Tennessee on Tuesday, then hosting #22 Arkansas on Saturday.

Auburn is a lot like us. With 6’11” Austin Wiley and 6’7″ Danjel Purifoy – two of their top four scorers last year – out indefinitely due to potential ineligibility surrounding the ongoing federal investigation, the Tigers play no one bigger than 6’8″. Nine players get 13+ minutes; the Vols have nine getting 11+.

Auburn hopes to be good, but is yet to play a great team. Tennessee hopes to be great, and has played several already.

What Auburn does well:

• Defending inside the arc. Opponents shoot just 41.7% against the Tigers from two, the 11th best defensive percentage in the nation. This is in part because, like Tennessee, Auburn is an excellent shot-blocking team despite their lack of size. The main threat here is 6’8″ sophomore Anfernee McLemore, who tosses 3.4 shots per game in just over 20 minutes of action. Auburn blocks 19.2% of opponent shots, fourth nationally, and McLemore leads the nation in this stat in sending back 18.7% of the shots taken while he’s on the floor.
• Offensive rebounding. Auburn is 14th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (37.2%). 6’3″ Desean Murray, a Presbyterian transfer, has been particularly good here with 36 offensive rebounds on the year.
• Free throw shooting. Hold your 2007 Ohio State jokes. The Tigers’ 77.1% is 20th nationally; Auburn’s top four scorers all shoot between 79-82%. You do not want to be behind this bunch in the final minute.

What Tennessee can do to win:

• Defend the three. Auburn launches 26 threes per game, 8.5 of them from Bryce Brown (hitting 35.5%). This won’t be anything new for Tennessee:  Vol opponents have taken 237 threes, the 13th most any team has seen this season. The Vols give up just 34.2% on the year from three, and volume shooting teams like Furman (25.9%) and even Villanova (35.3%) have struggled to find victory that way against Tennessee. If Auburn wins from the arc, they will be the first to do so against Tennessee this year.
• Continue to share the ball. The Vols have dropped from first to eighth nationally in assist percentage, but still share the ball on 65.5% of their made baskets. Auburn doesn’t create a ton of turnovers, and won’t be the first fast-paced team the Vols have seen this year. Good offense via good shots is still Tennessee’s best plan of attack.
• Make free throws.  While the Tigers shoot their own free throws well, they’ve certainly been helped by the opposition shooting just 73.8% against them. After a solid start to the season, Tennessee is just 44-of-66 (66.7%) in the last three games. Eight missed free throws at Arkansas made a difference. Tennessee needs this to trend back in the other direction.

The Vols are 4-1 against Bruce Pearl at Auburn, but this is the first one where the ex-Tennessee coach isn’t the lead story. That’s a credit to both Pearl and Rick Barnes for getting these two teams where they are now from where they were when both took over. The Vols need a rebound after a tough loss to open SEC play. Auburn needs a win to validate their place on the bubble. It should be another good one.

7:00 PM ET Tuesday, ESPNU. Go Vols.

The first game of SEC play might be the most difficult, depending on which set of power ratings you ask. RPI Forecast uses Jeff Sagarin’s, which give Tennessee just a 28% chance to win at Arkansas tomorrow. That’s the lowest percentage left on the schedule – the Vols are currently getting 30% in Rupp Arena – and one of only five remaining games where Tennessee is the underdog (at Missouri 40%, vs Texas A&M 46%, at Alabama 48%).

So yes, it’s a big test. As we know, the Vols have already played three of the nation’s top eight teams in KenPom. They beat one and took the other two to the finish line. Arkansas is 22nd in KenPom, just behind the Vols at 19th. But this time, Tennessee has to get it done on the road.

Arkansas does not like close games.

The Razorbacks are 10-2. They beat Oklahoma (#16 KenPom) in the Phil Knight tournament 92-83, then lost to North Carolina by 19 the next day. The Tar Heels were +16 in rebounds, shot 8-of-16 from the arc, and had 21 free throw attempts to eight for Arkansas.

They blew out UConn by 35 two days after that, then lost at Houston (#40 KenPom) by 26 six days later. The Cougars were +9 on the glass, but were also particularly good at shutting down Arkansas: Houston (34.5%) and UNC (37.5%) are the only teams to hold them under 43% from the field.

Then they dusted Minnesota (#41 KenPom, 14th in the AP poll at the time) by 16 a week later in one of their best performances of the season:  57.4% from the field, 43.5% from the arc, 23 assists to nine turnovers. Since then they’ve beaten Troy, Oral Roberts, and CSU Bakersfield by a combined 87 points.

They lost Dusty Hannahs and Moses Kingsley from the group that pushed North Carolina to the end in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. But their three senior guards have been a terror: Jaylen Barford averages 18.6 points and 46.4% from the arc, Daryl Macon gets 15.3 on 43.7% from three, and Anton Beard goes for another 12.1. And 6’11” freshman Daniel Gafford has poured in 11.7 points and 6.3 rebounds in just 20 minutes of action, while guard C.J. Jones has gone from role player to double-digit scorer at 10.5 per. In both losses, this guard-heavy lineup suffered in the post:  Luke Maye had 28 points and 16 rebounds while Gafford played only 15 minutes with foul trouble, and Houston’s Devin Davis (only 6’6″) had 28 and 10 while Gafford had just five. Tennessee will need Grant Williams to have similar success.

What Arkansas does well:

• Offense, in general. 50.3% from the floor (21st nationally) and 41% from the arc (also 21st nationally). Arkansas is 19th in KenPom’s offensive efficiency ratings, and they score 90 points per game playing the 29th fastest pace in college basketball; only North Carolina is faster among Tennessee’s prior opponents.
• Turnover-free basketball. This is Arkansas’ most remarkable stat:  despite playing at such a fast pace, the Razorbacks are 10th nationally in total turnovers and fourth in turnover percentage, giving the ball away on just 12.1% of their possessions. Arkansas’ Twitter account points out Daryl Macon has 17 consecutive assists without a turnover. The primary ball-handlers are seniors who don’t succumb to pressure. This is an extraordinarily efficient offense.
• Blocking shots. The Razorbacks are 30th nationally in block percentage, sending back 14.5% of opponent shots. Gafford gets 1.9 per game, a little less than Moses Kingsley’s 2.6 last season, but still effective in limited minutes. Good news here:  Tennessee is even better at this, sending back 16.2% of opponent field goals, 21st nationally.

What Tennessee can do to win:

• The Vols have plenty of experience with great offenses, and remain one of the nation’s best defensive teams. Tennessee has played the nation’s 14th most difficult schedule in terms of opponent offenses via KenPom. The Vols are first among major conference teams in that metric, and it’s about to get better/worse. Having already faced offenses nationally rated second (Villanova), seventh (Purdue), 18th (North Carolina), and 27th (Wake Forest), the Vols now face Arkansas (19th), Auburn (29th), and Kentucky (25th) in a row. Half of Tennessee’s first 14 opponents will have had a Top 30 offense. And yet, the Vols are 35th nationally in field goal percentage defense at 39% and rated ninth nationally in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. The common denominator in defeat is an elite offense getting the best of Tennessee’s great defense:  Villanova and UNC are still the only two teams to shoot better than 40% against UT. Will Arkansas get there?
• Do you crash the offensive glass or set up transition defense? Tennessee chose the former against Villanova and North Carolina, getting offensive rebounds on 40.6% of their misses against the Wildcats and 39% against the Tar Heels. It almost paid off both times. But against another fast foe in Wake Forest, the Vols only grabbed 22.2% of their misses. However, Tennessee held the Demon Deacons to 37.7% from the floor and forced 19 turnovers. As noted, it’s unlikely the Vols will force a ton of turnovers against Arkansas. But Rick Barnes will have to choose if he wants to try to win this game with second chances on the offensive end, or if Tennessee’s first chance can be enough to try to win by slowing Arkansas down. North Carolina beat Arkansas via the offensive glass (and, I’m sure, by being North Carolina). We’ll see what Tennessee decides.
• Grant Williams dominates. It almost worked last year. Robert Hubbs got the headlines with 21 points in a four-point loss in Knoxville, but Williams had 15 points and 11 rebounds (six offensive) in 28 minutes. Moses Kingsley had just seven points. The blueprint is there against Gafford; if Kyle Alexander can help, even better.

It’s the first SEC impression, but could end up being a lasting one. All the pieces are there for the Vols to interest Arkansas in a close, great game between two teams gunning for the conference crown. The Vols have earned the fun they’ll find in Fayetteville.

Saturday, 1:00 PM ET, SEC Network. Go Vols.

 

LSU is at Memphis today, and Kentucky faces Louisville on Friday. Then SEC play tips off, with Tennessee and Arkansas doing the honors Saturday at 1:00 PM ET.

Five years ago, you could have confused the SEC for a mid-major league. Florida dominated a newly-expanded conference in 2013, rated second nationally in KenPom before bowing out in the Elite Eight. Missouri got in as a nine seed and lost in the first round. And Marshall Henderson shot Ole Miss to an SEC Tournament title, pushing the Rebels into the tournament as a 12 seed.

And that was it.

Kentucky, Alabama, and Tennessee just missed the field, each earning a one or two seed in the NIT. The league’s three NCAA Tournament teams were the only ones to finish in the KenPom Top 50. And the basement was a mess, dead weight around the necks of tournament hopefuls:  Auburn at 197, South Carolina at 209, and Mississippi State at 256 in KenPom.

Changes in coaching and scheduling made a difference, but not immediately. Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee (barely) got in the next year, with all three advancing to the Sweet 16. Kentucky’s undefeated bid was the story in 2015, but four other SEC teams made the field. But the league was back to just three in 2016, with Vanderbilt bowing out in Dayton.

While the top tier still needed work, the bottom was getting better. Two years ago Rick Barnes’ first squad just missed the Top 100 in KenPom at 103, while Missouri (159) and Auburn (189) brought up the rear. Last year the middle leveled up: while Kentucky and Florida did their usual at the top, the SEC’s Top 12 teams were all in the Top 90. Missouri (156) and LSU (172) still struggled mightily, but South Carolina’s surprise run to the Final Four gave the league some additional juice. Five teams got in, and three made it to the Elite Eight.

The SEC got five in the field in 2017, 2015, and 2011, but six hasn’t happened since 2008. By my count, seven has never been done.

This year, in the Christmas Eve edition of the Bracket Matrix, the SEC has eight on the dance floor.

The best SEC since…

This is easily the best SEC since expansion those five years ago, and has put itself in the running for a much longer conversation. The league is currently third in conference RPI and first in out-of-conference strength of schedule, with ten games against the Big 12 (first in conference RPI) still to come. Top to bottom, the SEC is one of the nation’s best basketball conferences:

	SEC	ACC	Big East	Big 10	Big 12	Pac 12
AP Top 25	3	5	4	2	6	2
KenPom Top 25	4	6	3	2	4	2
KenPom Top 50	7	9	7	7	9	4
KenPom Top 100	14	13	9	14	10	6
RPI Top 25	4	5	4	2	3	2
RPI Top 50	8	8	5	4	7	3
RPI Top 100	11	11	8	8	8	8
Bracket Matrix	8	10	6	5	7	2

Texas A&M leads the way at 11-1, seventh in KenPom. Kentucky is 9-2 and 18th.

And then there’s us.

What’s a good goal for Tennessee?

The Vols are one spot behind the Wildcats at 19th in KenPom and join Kentucky and Arkansas at 9-2 in the Top 25 in those ratings. Those four make up the league’s top tier entering conference play. Ending the season in that top tier is a great, practical goal for Tennessee.

Finishing in the top four in SEC play would both give the Vols a double bye in the SEC Tournament, and secure a favorable seed in the NCAA Tournament. Right now the Vols are a five seed in the Bracket Matrix, while RPI Forecast projects Tennessee to finish 10-8 in league play. There are no cupcakes this time around; the league will not be easy. Finishing as a six seed or higher would keep the Vols away from college basketball’s very best until at least the Sweet 16. Or you could consider the fact that the Vols have already played three competitive games with college basketball’s very best and won one of them, and just let this thing play out hoping for the most favorable seed possible.

RPI Forecast also gives the Vols a 75.7% chance to finish the regular season with at least 19 wins, which would make the Vols an NCAA Tournament lock. It’s tough to have a conversation about goals for a team that started the year picked 13th in the SEC and is currently flirting with 13th in the nation. This season so far has been a gift, but this team has earned it:  the Vols haven’t been lucky, just good.

So if they go 9-9 in league play and just get into the tournament, this year would still have to be considered a success. But the Vols have earned the right to dream a little bigger.

On that:

Tennessee’s conference schedule is relatively easy, but extraordinarily front-loaded.

As usual, the Vols get Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina twice. You know what you’ll get from UK every year. Vanderbilt is a conundrum at 5-7 with no bad losses. South Carolina is rebuilding without Sindarius Thornwell, P.J. Dozier, and Duane Notice.

This year the Vols draw Georgia and Ole Miss as their other two home-and-home opponents. The Dawgs are 10th among SEC teams in KenPom, the Rebels 13th. Vanderbilt is 12th, South Carolina ninth.

The Vols and seven others make up the top eight teams in the SEC. And of the other seven, the Vols play six of them only once.

And they will play five of them in their first six SEC games, plus visit Memorial Gym.

• at Arkansas, Saturday December 30
• vs Auburn, Tuesday January 2
• vs Kentucky, Saturday January 6
• at Vanderbilt, Tuesday January 9
• vs Texas A&M, Saturday January 13
• at Missouri, Wednesday January 17

The bulk of Tennessee’s resume will take shape by mid-January. As it looks right now, Tennessee’s only opportunities for quality wins after this are in Rupp on February 6 and vs Florida on February 21. Maybe we’ll be able to add at Alabama to that list by February 10.

So if the Vols start, say, 3-3 in SEC play? That’s far closer to pretty good than it would be to the negative overreaction some casual basketball fans would have. In Sagarin’s ratings at RPI Forecast, the most difficult game left on Tennessee’s schedule is the next one.

We’ll know a lot more about this team and what kinds of conversations we can have for March in just three weeks. Tennessee has to make the most of its early opportunities. Fortunately, the Vols have been doing that all year.

 

Tennessee played the last eight minutes of the first half without Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and Jordan Bowen, all out with two fouls. Wake Forest was up 22-19 when Bowden joined the other two on the bench. But, apparently believing Rick Barnes’ comments about this team having 11 starters, a rotation unaccustomed to playing together pushed the Vols in front by a point at halftime. This was due in large part to the play of Kyle Alexander, who scored seven of his 11 points during that stretch.

With their best players back on the floor, Tennessee quickly built a seven point lead in the second half, then kept Wake at about that distance until the 4:30 mark. The Demon Deacons scored to cut the lead to six…and then Tennessee closed the game on a 13-0 run.

Only the last two were free throws. Bowden hit a three. Schofield hit a three. Bowden hit another three. Then Jordan Bone went to the basket. Up six with 4:30 to play, up 17 with 1:23 to play. That’ll do.

This was Tennessee’s largest margin of victory on the road since beating Tony Barbee’s last Auburn squad by 28 in Cuonzo Martin’s final season. And it was an emphatic statement in the final four minutes after 36 hampered by foul trouble and turnovers. Normally a thing like Lamonte Turner and James Daniel shooting 3-of-14 off the bench would be problematic. But the Vols got double figures from all five starters.

When they were on the floor, Tennessee’s starting five showed incredible efficiency. Bone, Bowden, Schofield, Williams, and Alexander went 25-of-37 (67.6%). And Jordan Bowden, who already led the SEC in three-point shooting coming in, went 5-for-5. He is now a ridiculous 26-of-42 (61.9%) on the year.

Other numbers that would have seemed ridiculous at the start of the year:  the Vols are 10th in RPI and 19th in KenPom following this win. Even a .500 performance in SEC play should get Tennessee on the dance floor at this point. But this win continues the shift in conversation: from just trying to do enough to get in, to heading into league play trying to, you know, win it.

More on the SEC next week, as the Vols open at Arkansas next Saturday, then host Bruce Pearl and John Calipari back-to-back. For now, a standing ovation for Tennessee’s performance in the non-conference; today was a fine exclamation point.

Go Vols.

 

Tennessee…escaped? Is “escaped” the word we want to use for Wednesday night? Furman held the Vols to 37.1% from the floor and 5-of-20 from the arc; nine missed free throws didn’t help. But Tennessee’s defense was again present and accounted for: Devin Sibley scored 22 points on 16 shots, but no other Paladin had double figures and Furman shot just 39.7% as a team. The Vols were +14 in rebounding and, even when shots weren’t falling, continued to share the ball well with an assist on 17 of 23 made baskets. And, this time, a final minute that got a little too fast and loose broke Tennessee’s way.

The result: a 66-61 win, moving the Vols to 8-2 on the year. After the pre-Atlantis games with Presbyterian and High Point, Rick Barnes put three solid regional mid-majors in Tennessee’s path in Mercer, Lipscomb, and Furman. Mercer was missing their best player in a 24-point UT win, but Tennessee was appropriately challenged by Lipscomb and pushed a little too far by Furman. But the home team prevailed every night.

This means Tennessee’s resume has no bad losses. The Vols will finish the regular season undefeated against non-major-conference opponents for the first time since 2010. About half of those losses the last seven years came to traditional mid-major powers. But getting through unscathed for the first time since Bruce Pearl’s next-to-last season is still an accomplishment, especially for a team originally projected to finish 13th in the SEC.

Tennessee Mid-Major Losses since 2010

2016-17	Chattanooga, vs Gonzaga
2015-16	vs George Washington, at Butler, vs Gonzaga
2014-15	vs VCU
2013-14	vs UTEP, at Wichita State
2012-13	Memphis
2011-12	vs Memphis, at Oakland, Austin Peay, at Charleston, at Memphis
2010-11	Oakland, at Charlotte, Charleston

Somebody has to come in last in the SEC – more on that next week – but right now, each of the league’s 14 teams are in the Top 90 in KenPom. This is shaping up to be the best SEC of at least this decade, and the league appears cupcake-free for the first time in more than 15 years. Tennessee may still lose some games they shouldn’t, but there shouldn’t be any resume-crushing opportunities in the SEC.

But first:  Wake Forest.

Hey, Danny Manning!

The former LA Clipper all-star spent a decade as a Kansas assistant, then got Tulsa to the NCAA Tournament in two years. This is his fourth year in Winston-Salem; after winning just seven ACC games in his first two years, Manning got Wake to 9-9 in league play last season. That got them a ticket to Dayton, where they lost to Kansas State in the First Four.

They lost John Collins to the first round of the draft, but returned guards Bryant Crawford (16.4 points and 4.9 assists) and Keyshawn Woods (15.8 points and 39% from the arc). But it did not go well for them at the start of this season:  lost to Georgia Southern by two, lost to Liberty by 13, lost to Drake by three, beat Quinnipiac, then lost to Houston by five. Since then, the Demon Deacons have won six in a row. But Tennessee will be the best team Wake has faced, by far: only Houston (41) and Georgia Southern (97.6) have a projected RPI of better than 100 in their non-conference schedule.

Another hot-shooting foe

In 11 games, Tennessee will have faced four of the nation’s Top 20 offenses (via KenPom), and Arkansas will make five next weekend. Wake shoots 48.7% from the floor (49th nationally), 39% from the arc (54th), and 77% from the line (20th). But, again, consider the competition.

Despite their own competition, the Vols are 36th nationally in field goal percentage defense in giving up 39.1% per game. Tennessee is 18th in KenPom’s defensive ratings; Villanova (46%) and North Carolina (43.3%) remain the only teams to shoot better than 40% against Barnes’ squad. If that defense travels, the Vols can make Wake Forest less comfortable than they’ve been all season.

If the Vols want to stay in the Top 25 heading into conference play, they’ll need this win. This would also give Tennessee a second true road win, along with Georgia Tech, and virtually guarantee an NCAA Tournament bid if the Vols simply went .500 in SEC play. It would be a fitting bridge between a great start and a great opportunity in league play.

Saturday, 12:30 PM ET, ESPN2. Go Vols.