Author Archives: Will Shelton

Opportunity knocks for the SEC tomorrow, and particularly hard for a handful of bubble teams. The Big 12 has five teams in Ken Pomeroy’s Top 20 and three more in the Top 40. They lead the nation in conference RPI with a ridiculous .863 winning percentage (101 wins with just 16 losses) in non-conference play. But with an out-of-conference strength of schedule ranking just 16th out of 32 conferences, tomorrow may be the toughest non-conference test for several non-marquee Big 12 schools.

This continues to be the best SEC of at least a decade, but some clear divisions are beginning to appear. Auburn and Tennessee are in the Top 15 in both KenPom and RPI; Kentucky and Florida may be frustrating fans a little this week but both are in good shape. Then there’s chaos in bubble town: Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri, and Texas A&M are all a nine or ten seed in the latest Bracket Matrix, with Georgia in the first four out. LSU and South Carolina – teams well off the NCAA radar when conference play began – are playing themselves into the conversation. There is simply no such thing as an afterthought in this league.

The bad news for the SEC in looking to win the challenge tomorrow:  Auburn isn’t in it this year, and neither is Missouri or LSU. Vanderbilt hosts TCU in a one degree of separation game for Jamie Dixon, while Ole Miss is at Texas. The SEC will be a significant underdog in both of those games. But there are games that can make a serious difference for South Carolina (vs #14 Texas Tech), Alabama (vs #12 Oklahoma), and Texas A&M (at #5 Kansas).

Is there such a thing as a bad team in the nation’s best conference? Tennessee gets to find out.

Last year Iowa State was a five seed in the NCAA Tournament, losing to Purdue in the second round by four points. But they lost their top four scorers and started the year getting blown out by Missouri (74-59) and Milwaukee (74-56) in one degree of Bruce Pearl games. Then they won nine in a row en route to conference play.

After a blowout home loss to Kansas State, the Cyclones were feisty in defeat: overtime losses to Texas and at Oklahoma State, then a five point loss at Kansas. In the last two weeks, they have avoided close games like the plague: beat Baylor by 10, lost at TCU by 23, beat Texas Tech by 18, lost at Texas by 16.

What Iowa State does well:

• Guards who let it fly. Lindell Wigginton and Donovan Jackson are 6’2″ and unafraid: between them they average 13.1 threes attempted per game. And they’re not just volume shooters: Wigginton shoots 43% from the arc, Jackson 42%. Nick Babb is the distributor with 7.2 assists per game.
• Ball security. Iowa State is 59th nationally in turnover percentage, giving it away on just 14.6% of their possessions.
• Free throw shooting. The Cyclones shoot 73.2% from the line, and Donovan Jackson is one of the best free throw shooters in the country at 40-of-43 (93%) on the year. They also defend without fouling, allowing the 11th fewest free throw attempts in college basketball this year.

What Tennessee can do to win:

• Wear them down. This isn’t just a nine-man rotation, it’s essentially a nine-man roster. Their pace isn’t slow (139th nationally), but I’ll be curious to see if Tennessee tries to speed them up. Nick Babb has an amazing stat line of 12.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 7.2 assists per game, but it comes in nearly 38 minutes of work every night.
• Good looks from three. And they’re available against Iowa State, 222nd nationally in three-point percentage defense. Assist percentage and three-point shooting continue to be the best predictors of success for Tennessee.
• Take the crowd out early. This is the first year we’ve seen Tennessee as a ranked team in a non-conference road game since 2011, which means it’s the first time we’ve seen these Vols wear the target associated with a meaningful win for the home team. The Vols have traveled extremely well and not allowed teams like Wake Forest and Georgia Tech to find that win. Against an Iowa State team recently familiar with blowing out or getting blown out, the Vols need to make sure it’s going to be the latter Saturday as soon as possible.

Saturday, 4:00 PM ET, ESPNU. Go Vols.

Tennessee is capable of winning in so many different ways, it’s hard to create a formula for their success. Last year assists were the go-to stat: the only way the Vols were getting good offense was through good ball movement, and if that didn’t happen they didn’t defend well enough to make up the difference. Tennessee is still strong here (12th nationally in assist percentage, fourth among power conference teams), but that stat is less predictive of success this season: the Vols beat Purdue and South Carolina while assisting on less than half of their makes.

But that stat informs what has become Tennessee’s other leading indicator of success:  three-point shooting.

The Vols don’t rely on the three the way more and more teams are doing. Tennessee is 291st nationally in three-pointers attempted, averaging 20.4 per game. But the Vols are 55th nationally in percentage, hitting 38.3% from three on the year. Threes are a function of the offense, not the offense itself, and Tennessee hits a higher percentage largely because their ball movement generates good looks.

Of the five players who average at least two attempts per game, only Lamonte Turner shoots less than 37%. There’s been plenty of talk about Jordan Bowden shooting more (still at 51.7% on the year despite an 0-for-7 stretch last week), but Tennessee’s patience is one of the reasons he’s shooting so well to begin with. James Daniel (37.5%), Jordan Bone (40.5%), and Admiral Schofield (43.4%) are all reliable targets as well.

Good ball movement leads to more assists, especially when you’ve got such a productive option in the paint in Grant Williams. And more of those assists are coming because the Vols are getting and hitting open threes.

The two best predictors of Tennessee’s success, then:

• The Vols are 9-0 when at least 64% of their made baskets come off an assist, 4-5 when they don’t.
• The Vols are 10-1 when shooting at least 36.4% from three, 3-4 when they don’t.

And the one can cover the sins of the other. Two of Tennessee’s lowest assist percentage wins were at Vanderbilt (43.3%) and South Carolina (43.5%). But the Vols shot 53.8% from the arc in Nashville and 45.5% in Columbia. Likewise, the Vols shot just 29.4% from the arc against Texas A&M and 36.4% against Kentucky, but assisted on 64% of their made shots against the Aggies and a staggering 92% against the Wildcats.

And when all else fails, the Vols can still win with defense:  Tennessee was average in both against Purdue (39.1% from the arc, 48.3% assist percentage), but held the Boilermakers to 37.3% from the floor and got the win in overtime.

A dozen games remain in the regular season; there’s plenty of time for three-point shooting to go up or down. But this continues to be a well-coached team that gets shots they like, and knocks them down at a winning rate.

 

Here’s a point we would have made if the Vols lost today:  Tennessee’s next three SEC games are at home against the only three teams in the league with an RPI of 100+ (Vanderbilt, LSU, Ole Miss). Thrown in for fun is a road trip to Ames, Iowa to face the only Big 12 team outside the Top 65 in KenPom. The Vols are currently first in strength of schedule in those same ratings. After the warm-ups against Presbyterian and High Point, 11 of Tennessee’s last 16 games were against teams projected to finish in the RPI Top 100, eight in the Top 50. We’re due a break.

But at the end of the nation’s most difficult first three-fifths of the season, Tennessee found one more win. They did it on the road while holding a lead of less than eight points for the final 27 minutes, yet never fell behind. And Tennessee’s 13th win came by yet another new method: more points from the bench (39) than the starters (31).

Twenty-five of those came from Lamonte Turner, along with six rebounds. That part isn’t new:  he had 17 against Purdue, 24 at Georgia Tech, and 25 against Auburn. He’s become one of the streakiest players in recent Tennessee history: he was 1-of-6 against Missouri and 1-of-5 from the arc, then 6-of-9 today and 3-of-3 from three. The Vols have beaten good teams while he was cold – he was 2-of-11 against Kentucky – but don’t beat Purdue or the Gamecocks today without him. He’s one of those guys that could have a lot to do with the length of Tennessee’s stay come tournament time.

The newness today came from Derrick Walker, a sentence you’re as surprised to read as I am to type. Walker, a true freshman, averages six minutes per game and had only played more than ten thrice. His season high was 14 minutes. Today:  5-of-5 from the floor, 10 points, and four rebounds in 25 minutes. He doubled his previous career high in scoring.

The push-and-pull led to John Fulkerson not coming in and Kyle Alexander, who had 26 points in the last two games, playing just 14 minutes today. There was no Jalen Johnson, but Yves Pons got his first action since Wake Forest and ended up playing a dozen minutes, with an important putback for his first SEC points.

This is Tennessee: you’re going to get 15+ from Grant Williams, and if the other team isn’t physical on the interior he could go off for more. You’re going to get double figures from Admiral Schofield, who is quietly shooting 43.4% from the arc. One of the guards is probably going to play well (and when they don’t, you get Missouri). The Vols are going to share the ball well. And whoever is seeing the most minutes outside of Williams and Schofield on a given night is probably whoever is defending most effectively.

Against great competition, the Vols have won scoring 92 and scoring 66. They have bested elite size from Purdue and Texas A&M and elite athleticism from Kentucky. They have won at Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina; their other two road games are an overtime loss at Arkansas and a four-point loss at Missouri. This team travels. This team is good.

Here’s a question; not a concern, just a question:  does Tennessee need a clearer idea of who represents its best basketball by tournament time?

Does Barnes want/hope one of Bone, Turner, and Daniel to separate himself? Those three average almost identical minutes on the year, but game-to-game it can vary wildly. Today: Turner 32 minutes, Daniel 22, Bone 16. What about Alexander, Walker, and/or Fulkerson in the post?

The messaging has been consistent all year on having a dozen starters or whatever. And this may, in fact, already be Tennessee’s best basketball. The Vols are 14th in KenPom with a roster picked to finish 13th in the SEC. No complaints here.

They won’t even necessarily need to be better over the next couple of weeks, just consistent. But we do have memories around here of Bruce Pearl’s 2008 team still looking for a point guard heading into the bracket, and the 2010 team suddenly becoming Final Four material when Brian Williams returned to the lineup in late February. Barnes surely wants his team to continue to improve; will that improvement include more definitive answers at guard at in the post?

Either way, the Vols have already proven themselves capable of winning multiple ways against multiple tough opponents. Today was just the latest example.

 

The Vols dropped a tough one at Missouri, where holding the Tigers without a field goal for the last 6:47 wasn’t quite enough to overcome 24% from the arc and 62% from the free throw line. Tennessee goes to 12-5 (3-3), but a road loss to a quality team like Mizzou doesn’t hurt at all in KenPom (where the Vols remain 13th) and RPI (where the Vols are 14th).

There are eight SEC teams in the KenPom Top 50; the same eight are in the RPI Top 40. The Vols still lead the SEC in the former, while trailing Auburn and Kentucky in the latter. Just six games into conference play, the Vols have already faced five of those Top 50 teams. Only three such games remain:  at Kentucky and at Alabama back-to-back in early February, and a visit from Florida on February 21.

Tennessee has ten other games between now and the SEC Tournament. In the best SEC of at least this decade, which means there is no such thing as easy. Vanderbilt has fallen out of the KenPom Top 100, but the rest of the league is in the Top 85. It will not be easy…but it will be easier.

Right now will probably be as high as Tennessee’s strength of schedule goes this season. It ranks second nationally in KenPom and fourth in RPI, where it is projected to finish 22nd. The Vols already have quality wins over Purdue and Kentucky, plus Texas A&M could still find their way back onto that list. When the case is being made for Tennessee on Selection Sunday, it will sound a lot like this.

Like last year, the Vols already have the details they need; the raw win total is all that remains between Tennessee and the bracket. Last year the Vols got in the bracket conversation with their 12th win, beating Kansas State four days after knocking off #4 Kentucky. The difference:  last year the Vols started 12-9. This year they were 12-4 before falling at Mizzou.

Anxiety about getting in is easy to understand after missing both the NCAA and NIT the last three years. RPI Forecast suggests the Vols would be in business there at 18-12 (8-10 or 9-9 with a loss at Iowa State). But Tennessee’s resume to this point – not just the strength of schedule but the quality wins with no bad losses – suggests we can dream a little bigger.

Coming through this front-loaded portion of the SEC schedule at 3-3 keeps Tennessee’s pre-conference goals alive:  compete for the league title, and earn a favorable seed in the NCAA Tournament. When it comes to seeding, eight or better is great for getting through the first round, but what you really want is six or better to stay away from the truly elite teams in the second round. The Vols may not be one of those truly elite teams themselves, but everything we’ve seen from this team against this schedule so far makes me think Tennessee can be a 4-6 seed. Most of the Bracket Matrix agrees.

After facing so many good teams in the first 17 games in building their case, the challenge in these final 13 games becomes consistency. That starts at South Carolina on Saturday, 68th in KenPom fresh off a win over Kentucky. The Gamecocks are the worst shooting team in league play, but are first at getting to the free throw line (thanks in large part to FoulFest 2018 against Kentucky on Tuesday) and first in offensive rebounds. We could say it’s another game where effort will be essential, but again, that’s every night now in this league. The Vols have been good enough to build a high-seed resume against one of the nation’s most difficult schedules. Now can they be consistent enough to get the rest of the way there?

Somewhere in dreams, Bruce Pearl still wears an orange blazer and the Vols never missed an NCAA Tournament. Perhaps a little further west in dreams, Rick Barnes still wears that other shade of orange and his teams kept finding their way into the tournament’s second weekend.

The nearly-impossible task put before whoever would follow Pearl was to keep the dream alive. Tennessee made 13 NCAA Tournaments in the bracket’s first 67 years, then six in a row under Pearl. The Vols went to a single Sweet 16 in the 64-team field from 1985-2005, then went to three under Pearl. They won the SEC outright, made the program’s first Elite Eight, and even spent a week at number one. It was a good dream.

It didn’t turn out to be Cuonzo Martin’s dream; his tenure remains a Rorschach test for Tennessee fans. So was his second year at Cal, two seasons ago, when he took the Golden Bears to their highest seed in tournament history, then lost in the first round to 13-seed Hawaii while down two starters and an assistant coach. We tend to see what we want to see.

One of the most helpful lenses in judging a college basketball team is Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. Unsurprisingly, they rate Bruce Pearl’s 2008 squad as the best of his tenure. What is surprising: not only was Cuonzo Martin’s last Tennessee team rated higher than all of Pearl’s, but Barnes’ team this year is giving them a run for their money:

• 2008: +22.17 adjusted efficiency, 13th nationally
• 2014: +23.69, 10th
• 2018: +21.77, 13th

The process was complicated, but the end result in 2014 finished closer to the mountaintop than any Tennessee team other than Pearl’s run to the Elite Eight in 2010. We’re a long way from the end result right now, but this Tennessee team has a higher KenPom rating than all of Pearl’s except 2008. Missing both the NCAA’s and the NIT the last three years trained us to not get ahead of ourselves, to keep doing the math on how many wins the Vols need just to get in the bracket. But KenPom’s math suggests this is far more than a bubble team.

And this year’s process runs through Cuonzo and CoMo tonight.

Dreams, by definition, end. Bruce Pearl was the architect of his own demise in Knoxville. Rick Barnes made five Sweet 16’s, three Elite Eight’s, and a Final Four from 2002-08. He sent 17 Longhorns to the NBA Draft in his 15-year stint in Austin, including five one-and-dones. But Texas never made it past the second round in Barnes’ last seven seasons.

I don’t know what Cuonzo’s dream is; I’m not sure he would speak in those terms anyway. But, when you listen to him talk about why he’s at Missouri in this outstanding piece from S.L. Price at Sports Illustrated, he might not be far from it.

This is the good news at the tail end of a decade of highs, lows, and complex emotions for Tennessee basketball and its coaches. Bruce Pearl didn’t find the same magic at Auburn in year one, but in year four his Tigers are 16-1 and headed for their first NCAA Tournament in 15 years. Cuonzo Martin took over a Missouri program that was 27-68 (8-46) under Kim Anderson, signed the nation’s best player only to lose him to injury two minutes into the season, and is still 12-5 (2-2). And Rick Barnes has stayed away from one-and-dones in Knoxville, but is putting together a season on pace to rival his predecessors’ best work.

Dreams are great. But reality, for all three men, is pretty great right now too.

Two weeks ago Texas A&M was the best team in the best SEC of at least the last decade. The Aggies were ranked fifth in the Christmas Day AP poll, 11-1 with a three-point loss to Arizona the only blemish. They beat West Virginia – currently ranked second in the nation – by 23 points in the season opener. They won at then-#10 Southern Cal by 16. They were rolling.

Then there was some weirdness. DJ Hogg served a three game suspension. Robert Williams missed a game with illness. Admon Gilder missed five games with a knee injury. Duane Wilson has missed three and counting with another knee injury. Tyler Davis, who leads the team in scoring at 14.6 points per game, is one of only two Aggies in the top eight in scoring who has played every game this year.

In the midst of all this lineup shuffling, they entered SEC play. They lost at Alabama by 22. Then they lost at home to Florida by 17. Then they lost to LSU on a last second shot that “heave” doesn’t even begin to describe. Then they went to Rupp with most of their lineup healthy, and may or may not have gotten hosed on a pass interference no-call in another one-point loss. And now A&M is 11-5 (0-4).

In KenPom, Tennessee is the best team in the SEC (and 15th nationally). Texas A&M, Auburn, Kentucky, and Florida are 21st-24th. So technically this is a match-up of the two best teams in the SEC via KenPom, but really it’s just another big challenge in Tennessee’s schedule, one that could go to number one in RPI by Saturday night.

What Texas A&M does well:

• These dudes are tall (so, you guessed it: offensive rebounding). The Aggies are 32nd nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at 35.3% (just ahead of the Vols at 35.2%). They’re not quite as strong as North Carolina, Auburn, or Kentucky in this metric, but they come about their numbers the old-fashioned way:  Tyler Davis and Robert Williams are 6’10”, DJ Hogg is 6’9″, and they can bring Tonny Trocha-Morelos off the bench, also 6’10”. They lead the SEC with 55 offensive rebounds in four games.
• Defense (when at full strength). On the year, the Aggies allow just 38.8% from the floor, 18th nationally. In four SEC games, they allow 47.8%, last in the conference. They held West Virginia to 34.3% and Southern Cal to 28.2%. But they allowed Kentucky to shoot 55.8%, despite being as healthy as they’d been in the last two weeks. Florida shot 51.6%, Alabama 45.6%, and LSU 40%.
• A veteran team that shares the basketball. Behind the Vols, this is the second best team in the SEC in assist percentage at 60.7%, 25th nationally. Robert Williams is a sophomore, but the rest of their major pieces are juniors and seniors. They had 22 assists on 31 made shots in the win over West Virginia. But they also look a little like Tennessee last year in this stat:  10-1 with 15+ assists, 1-4 with 14 or fewer.

What Tennessee can do to win:

• Beat their size at the three-point line. The Aggies are 10-0 when holding opponents to 30% or less from the arc, 1-5 with losses to Alabama (30.4%), Arizona (31.8%), Kentucky (33.3%), LSU (42.9%), and Florida (17-of-28, 60.7%) when they don’t. The Vols shoot 39.5% on the season (33rd nationally) and in conference play (third in the league). Tennessee’s best looks have come playing inside-out; we’ll see how A&M’s size might affect that strategy in creating good offense from good ball movement.
• Win the turnover battle again. Last year it was the most important stat in Tennessee’s SEC-opening win at College Station:  16 Texas A&M turnovers led to a 10-point Volunteer win. A&M has 54 turnovers in SEC play, most in the league. If the Tennessee defense can continue to force turnovers, and the offense can continue to create good shots, the Vols will have a good chance to send A&M to 0-5.
• Who dictates the game? The Vols have won in chameleon-like fashion this year. They beat Purdue’s massive size by way of great defense and clutch shooting. They locked down Arkansas for 36 minutes, then got blown by with foul trouble at the end. They stood toe-to-toe with North Carolina on the offensive glass, then were obliterated there by a smaller Auburn team. They slowed it down against Kentucky, defended without fouling, and won in the grind. Then they were happy to get into a footrace with Vanderbilt and won by scoring 92 points. The Vols can win in more than one fashion, which is great. Is there a style of play Tennessee actually prefers and can dictate to an opponent? This may be a question for the back half of Tennessee’s conference schedule, when things get a little easier. If not, it’ll take a Purdue-like performance in defending A&M’s size without getting Grant Williams and Kyle Alexander into foul trouble to get this one home.

A win here would get the Vols through their early conference gauntlet at at least .500 after a trip to Missouri next week. There are six SEC teams in the KenPom Top 40 behind the Vols; by next weekend Tennessee will have played all of them except Florida, with only one game against the Gators and a trip to Rupp left on the schedule. I thought at the beginning of league play a 3-3 start would be a good sign; I didn’t see the end of the Arkansas game or most of the Auburn game coming, but the Vols have righted the ship since then and none of us saw A&M’s 0-4 start coming. A win here ensures the Vols will stay on the path to contending for an SEC title and a favorable NCAA seed.

6:00 PM Saturday, SEC Network. Go Vols.

 

Tennessee took Vanderbilt’s best punch in the first half, and the Commodores continued to throw blows deep into the second. A Vandy team that loved to shoot threes but had struggled to make them erased that problem in the first half with an 8-of-15 performance, pushing their lead to 10. Quietly, the Vols were hot as well. In the second half, a more perimeter-focused defense held Vandy to 3-of-11 from the arc. The trade-off was better looks at the rim, particularly for freshman Saben Lee. His 21 points could have been the story.

But Tennessee’s quiet heat from the first half was an eruption in the second, and the night ended with, “It’s great…to be…” ringing through Memorial Gym. The Vols shot 56.6% from the floor, 7-of-13 from the arc, and 25-of-28 at the free throw line.

The Vols got the lead in a little more than seven minutes in the second half, sparked by Jordan Bowden. The two rivals continued to trade blows for the next three minutes, with Vandy’s last lead coming with 9:12 to play. Free throws from Matthew Fisher-Davis cut it back to two at 7:10. But from there, Vanderbilt’s punches lost their power. And Tennessee body-blowed them to death with Grant Williams, before Jordan Bone delivered the knockout with a three to put the Vols up 10 with 2:44 to go.

But it was Williams who did the real damage all night long, turning in one of the greatest performances of the post-Allan Houston era at Tennessee.

37 points was not only a career high, it is the most any Vol has scored since Ron Slay got 38 in 2003. That means tonight Williams, who scored 30 twice last year, passed the career highs of Steve Hamer (31), Scotty Hopson (32), Jordan McRae (35), Chris Lofton (35), and Kevin Punter’s 36-point game two years ago. He did it on just 20 shots, making 12 while adding 13-of-15 at the line.

Tennessee has played so many good teams this year, we’ve gotten used to seeing the opponent have a better answer for Williams. Vanderbilt, without Kornet in the middle, had none. And it was obvious from the opening tip, a glimmer of hope at halftime that Williams’ automatic looks from the paint were more likely to keep falling than Vanderbilt’s threes.

And Williams doesn’t get 37 without Adrmial Schofield getting 22, following up his 21 from the Kentucky win. He added nine rebounds, four of them offensive.

That glimmer of hope even when the Vols were down 10 on the road at Memorial? It’s one of the signs of a really good team: you learn not to give up on them, or even to panic. There may be other down-10’s in this year’s SEC. But the Vols – other than a few late minutes against pressure from North Carolina and Arkansas, and what looks less and less like an off night against Auburn – are remarkably steady.

Tennessee thrived in the non-conference with defense; they’ll probably have the lowest field goal percentage defense in the SEC through four games, and they should be 3-1. The Vol offense has been at its best all year when driven by great ball movement and assists. Tonight, Tennessee just got the ball to its best player and got out of the way. And it’s been a long time since we’ve seen a Tennessee team willingly get into a game they need to score 90 points to win, and do just that, on the road. But yep, this Tennessee team checked that one off tonight too.

Just a big, satisfying win with a historic performance from Tennessee’s best player. The Vols go to 11-4 (2-2) and crack the Top 15 in KenPom. Up next is Texas A&M, ranked fifth in the AP poll at the start of SEC play and now 0-4 after a last second loss at Rupp. There are no nights off, but a Tennessee team capable of winning multiple ways is built to last in this conference.

Go Vols.

How’s the Kevin Stallings/Vanderbilt break-up going in year two? The ‘Dores lost in Dayton in Stallings’ last year, then became the first team to earn an at-large bid with 15 losses (as a 9 seed!) under Bryce Drew before a heartbreaking end against Northwestern in round one. So far this year Vanderbilt is 6-9 against the nation’s 10th most difficult schedule. Stallings, charming as ever, had the first losing season in 17 years at Pitt in year one, and is currently 8-8 with three double digit losses to open ACC play.

There’s no Luke Kornet, but all the other names you know and love are back:  Jeff Roberson, Matthew Fisher-Davis, and Riley LaChance all average between 11-15 points while playing 28-32 minutes. Freshman guard Saben Lee adds another 10.5 points. There’s a problem from there, though:  no one else averages more than five points per game, a hodgepodge of seven other guys playing between 11-18 minutes.

Vandy beat Alabama 76-75 last week for their first SEC win. Their next best win this season is your choice of Radford or UNC Asheville. But all of their nine losses are to teams projected to finish in the RPI Top 100, six of them in the RPI Top 50. Only a couple were particularly competitive – an overtime loss to then-#10 Southern Cal, home losses to Kansas State and MTSU by a combined eight points in the same week – but I wouldn’t sleep on this team just yet.

What Vanderbilt does well:

• Let it fly. Vandy takes 26.1 threes per game, and leads the SEC with 85 in their first three conference games. There’s a stark contrast on the stat sheet:  LaChance shoots 43.7% from the arc, Roberson 41.9%, and then a fairly significant break. MFD is at just 33.7%, Payton Willis at 35.3% off the bench, and there are a bunch of guys shooting percentages with a 1 or 2 in front of them. The team shoots 32.7%, 278th nationally. This reeks of a team that could suddenly get hot (and they did hit 10-of-25 against Alabama), but so far, being not so good on percentage hasn’t kept them from taking them.
• Limit turnovers. The Vols feasted on Kentucky in this department, but will find a different and much more experienced animal in Nashville. Or at least that was the case until South Carolina turned them over 19 times in their last game. Before that, the Dores averaged just 9.8 turnovers in their previous six games.
• Defending threes. Opponents shoot 31.4% against Vanderbilt from the arc, 47th nationally. This hasn’t made a big difference in wins/and losses:  the ‘Dores have five losses where the opponent shot less than 30% from the arc, which is fascinating. The Vols did a good job against Kentucky getting open threes against a team that typically limits their effectiveness; they’ll need more of the same here.

What Tennessee can do to win:

• Defensive excellence returns. Tennessee is still 14th nationally in defensive efficiency via KenPom, in part because we’ve played the nation’s third toughest schedule by offensive efficiency. And the Vols beat Kentucky despite allowing 46.2% from the floor. But the Vols are allowing 46.5% in three SEC games, worst in the SEC. The Vols, of course, have played three excellent offenses. But now, against a team that loves to shoot threes, on the road, in a rivalry game…the best way to win is for Tennessee’s defense to take all of that out of the equation with a return to its own excellence.
• Complement good offense at the free throw line. Tennessee’s assist rate has been a big story all year. But the Vols are backing that up with good work at the line in SEC play:  66-of-87 (75.9%) is first in makes, second in attempts, and fifth in percentage through three games. Grant Williams is what you’d expect with an average of 4.8 free throw attempts per game. But the rest of the scorers have been really good here too:  Schofield, Bowden, and Turner all have 38 attempts this year, and Jordan Bone has 42. Everybody can attack and everybody can get to the line, on top of a strong ball-sharing offense to begin with.
• Handle success. The Vols only had 24 hours to process their win over Purdue, but came out hot against Villanova before falling short. There’s a little more distance between the Kentucky win and this trip, and the Commodores aren’t as good on paper as many of the teams the Vols have already faced this year. How will Barnes have his guys ready to go tonight in Nashville in a taking-care-of-business situation?

We continue to have the television schedule of a team picked to finish 13th in this league instead of the one currently ranked first in KenPom and RPI:  9:00 PM ET, SEC Network. Go Vols.

Kentucky has a bad habit of having guys an undersized Tennessee team just has no good answer for. Last night it was PJ Washington: 13 points on 6-of-8 shooting, plus three steals and two blocks. He did all of that in just 23 minutes, which is impressive, but ultimately helpful for Tennessee, as cramps kept him from playing any more than that. Last year it was Bam Adebayo, who had 21 points on 7-of-8 shooting in Knoxville.

But Tennessee has countered with effective play from undersized forwards against Kentucky’s bigs. Two years ago Armani Moore had 18 points and 13 rebounds in Knoxville. Last year Admiral Schofield had 15 points off the bench. And last night, Schofield had 20 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 steals in one of the best games of his career. And the Vols have three straight wins over Kentucky in Knoxville (and seven of the last eleven).

The Vols broke what had been their hardest and fastest rule this season:  hold the other team under 40% and win, don’t and don’t. Kentucky shot north of 55% in the first half and still finished at 46.2%. Only Arkansas has done better against the Vol defense this year.

But though the defense struggled to find its footing early, the Vols took the thing they were best at – successfully sharing the basketball – and did it better than ever last night. Tennessee had 23 assists on 25 made baskets, 92%. With a flu-ridden Jordan Bone playing only nine minutes, James Daniel and Lamonte Turner picked up the slack with 11 assists between them. And the Vols also worked inside out, as Schofield, Grant Williams, and John Fulkerson combined for another 11 assists.

It is, obviously, the best performance of the year by assist percentage, and significantly better than anything the Vols had done against a power conference opponent (70% against NC State is the next best performance). Tennessee is back up to fourth nationally in that stat at 66.8%; Michigan State, the nation’s new number one (but probably not for long after a loss to Ohio State), is the new leader. Look at how good the performance against Kentucky was compared to the best game in assist percentage in previous years:

• 2017: Appalachian State (74.3%)
• 2016: Gardner-Webb (75%)
• 2015: Tennessee State (78.3%)
• 2014: Tusculum (85.7%)
• 2013: Mississippi State (67.9%)
• 2012: South Carolina (73.7%)
• 2011: Auburn (73.9%)

That’s as far back as the advanced gamelogs go at Sports Reference, but consider the Vols also cracked 80+% this season against Lipscomb (88%) and Mercer (86.7%). Tennessee has successfully shared the ball better in three games this season than in any other game in at least the last seven years. And the top performance came against Kentucky.

As I type on Sunday evening, Tennessee’s strength of schedule is second nationally in RPI, fourth in KenPom. That’s so impressive that, last year, you could make a legitimate argument for Tennessee as an NCAA Tournament team when they surged to number one in strength of schedule after beating Kentucky and Kansas State back to back…to get to 12-9 overall. This team is 10-4 with two RPI Top 15 victories at the moment. And at the same moment, the Vols are the highest rated SEC team in both RPI and KenPom.

Look, this league is going to get nuts. The only winless team is the one that was in the top five when conference play started 10 days ago. The only undefeated teams are Florida, who was in free fall 10 days ago and needed heroics to beat Missouri on Saturday, and Auburn, suddenly allowing us to make the argument that all four of Tennessee’s losses are to really good teams. The entire league is still in the KenPom Top 90. There are no cupcakes on the menu. That Tennessee could be objectively considered the best team in a league like this right now? It’s quite the accomplishment, one that fittingly includes a win over Kentucky.

Lots of work left to do. But lots of good work already on this resume. Don’t stop now.

Go Vols.

 

The Vols have won six of the last ten in this series in Knoxville, including the last two. On the surface it might feel like these two teams are going in completely different directions:  the Vols are a frustrating 0-2 in league play after a stellar run through the non-conference, while Kentucky followed up a frustrating loss to UCLA with an absolute beat down of Louisville and a 2-0 start in conference. But Sagarin gives the Vols a 46% chance to win; I’d expect another close one.

Close is going to be the nature of the beast every night in this league. Of the ten SEC teams to play two conference games, only two (the usual suspects from Florida and Kentucky) are 2-0. The Cats themselves beat Georgia and LSU by a combined eight points. Texas A&M was the best team in the league a week ago, now they’re 0-2 with a 22-point loss at Alabama and a 17-point loss at home to Florida. Welcome to this year’s SEC.

This Year’s Lexington D-League Squad

We bid farewell to Malik Monk, De’Aaron Fox, Bam Adebayo, and Isaiah Briscoe. In their place are, you guessed it, five freshmen.

6’9″ Kevin Knox gets 14.6 points and 6 rebounds, with 6’5″ Hamidou Diallo just behind at 14.4. Facilitating much of this is 6’6″ Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with 12.1 points, 4.1 assists, and 2.3 steals. 6’7″ PJ Washington goes for 10.6 and 5.3 rebounds, and 6’0″ Quade Green adds 10.5 per game. Knox is on the floor by far the most at 33.1 minutes per game.

What Kentucky does well:

• Defending the three-point line. The Cats give up an impressive 29.2% from the arc, ninth-best nationally. Georgia and LSU went 8-for-45 (17.8%). Tennessee hasn’t been living from outside, and as many have noted, Jordan Bowden could probably use an even greener light. But the length and athleticism you can assume from a Calipari squad is once again making it difficult for opponents from the arc:  last year they finished 12th nationally in this stat.
• Two things Auburn was good at:  shot-blocking, where the Cats are 20th nationally in block percentage, sending back 15.7% of opponent shots. PJ Washington is a factor here, but two guys playing fewer minutes are also really strong:  Nick Richards averages 1.4 blocks in 16.9 minutes, and Wenyen Gabriel averages 1.4 in 22.8.
• …and offensive rebounding, hooray! After Auburn’s absurd performance Tuesday where they rebounded half of their misses, the Tigers are fifth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at 38.1%. Kentucky isn’t far behind at 36.6%. I don’t know if we should be worried about seeing the same problem twice in a row, but I’d imagine Barnes is happy to have the teaching moment.

What Tennessee can do to win:

• Turn Kentucky over. If a young Calipari team is bad at something…it’s free throw shooting, of course (68.8%). If there’s a second option for this team, however, it’s turnovers. UK is 199th nationally in turnover percentage, giving it away on 16.6% of their possessions. Tennessee is 61st nationally in opponent turnover percentage at 19.2%. The home floor can help. The Vols have not been shy about going up-tempo when the opponent wants to run; if that happens here, Tennessee needs to come out on top in the turnover department. The Cats had 18 turnovers in their loss to Kansas; 12 of them were steals.
• Be the more mature team. Sometimes the non-juggernaut Calipari teams take a minute to adjust to the night-in, night-out grind of SEC play. The 2016 team started 3-2 in league play, 2-1 in 2014, 3-2 in 2013, and 5-5 in 2011. Tennessee obviously isn’t setting the SEC world on fire right now, but has far more experience with this routine and could take advantage.
• Bring the necessary effort. I’d wager what happened on the offensive glass against Auburn won’t happen again, at least to that extent. But Tennessee also has to focus in if it wants to keep living in the same conversations the Vols have enjoyed since the Bahamas. Winning this one should keep Tennessee in the Top 25, would give another Top 25 win to their resume, and allow the Vols to keep thinking about contending for the SEC title and a favorable seed in the NCAA Tournament. But an 0-3 start in league play keeps you out of the conference title conversation by default, and would swing the overall conversation back to, “Wait, let’s just make sure we get in this thing.” The Vols have been better than that for the majority of the year. The necessary effort against Kentucky is a 40-minute effort; many, many Tennessee teams as good or better than this one have played 32-to-36 good minutes against the Cats and lost by 6-10 points. I’d expect Barnes to get more out of this team Saturday night than he did on Tuesday. And as it’s done all year, that should be enough to give Tennessee a chance to win.

It’s just the 15th ranked vs ranked game for the Vols at Thompson-Boling; the Vols are 10-4 in those games after the loss to North Carolina. A late tip for your Titans playoff viewing pleasure:  9:00 PM on the SEC Network. Go Vols.