Author Archives: Will Shelton

We get as much mileage as we can out of the “picked to finish 13th in the SEC” narrative, but that story really changed as soon as the Vols beat Purdue. That was 91 days ago. Tennessee then increased its tournament profile in the most boring way possible: competitive losses to Villanova and North Carolina, wins over everyone else in the non-conference. It looks like that will now include one additional victory over a tournament team (NC State), but at the time there was no additional earth-shattering moment after Purdue. The Vols beat all the teams they should beat, and almost beat two teams better than them.

But after a brief set of questions following near misses with Arkansas and Auburn to open SEC play, the Vols provided answers almost every night. Tennessee won nine of its next ten games in what might be the deepest SEC of all-time, beating Texas A&M and sweeping Kentucky. They won four road games, losing only at Missouri by four. It was, and is, the sort of streak that creates an expectation and then lives up to it.

Meanwhile, Auburn did basically the same thing, which kept the SEC title just out of reach. Tennessee’s RPI has hovered between 10-20 for six weeks. Even though it seems strange to say with that whole picked-13th past, Tennessee has been this good for a while now.

So good for so long, in fact, we flirted with one-seed talk the same week we won at Rupp Arena. Did the Vols fly a little too close to the sun? We’ll find out in March. But a 28-point loss at Alabama and what should be the season’s first loss to a non-tournament team at Georgia both backed the Vols down the bracket, and raised questions for the first time in almost two months. (By the way, the #nobadlosses still holds up – Georgia wasn’t a “good loss”, but the Dawgs are 66th in RPI in 70th in KenPom. That’s an NIT team.)

A team with Tennessee’s profile – consistent all year but an elite win or two shy from longer one-seed conversations – feels like a baseball team seven games up in the wild card in early August. There’s still work to do, and it sucks you can’t win the division, but this team is going to the playoffs with every chance to advance. That’s the end result, and you know it a few miles away from the bracket. A team like that can get lost in the grind for a minute.

Is that what’s happened to Tennessee these last few days, or are there legitimate concerns? Here with some answers are the Florida Gators.

Florida runs a particularly efficient offense: shoot threes, make free throws, don’t turn it over. Virginia Tech transfer Jalen Hudson and Rice transfer Egor Koulechov joined Chris Chiozza and KeVaughn Allen in this guard-heavy lineup, and these dudes will let it fly. The Gators are fourth in the SEC in threes attempted and 70th nationally in three-point percentage; Hudson shoots 39.5% and Koulechov 42%. They shoot 73.8% from the line, and most of all, they take great care of the basketball. Florida is fourth nationally in turnover percentage, giving the ball away on just 14.3% of its possessions.

Florida has also been a tad unlucky, especially when it comes to opponent free throw shooting. They lost to Duke by three when the Blue Devils went 19-of-20 at the line, and at Vanderbilt by three when the Commodores went 22-of-24. Ole Miss, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida State all beat the Gators while shooting better than 81% at the line.

Much of Tennessee’s focus right now is on offensive production and rebounding, but Tennessee’s most consistent weakness has been stopping great guards. Florida provides another opportunity for Rick Barnes’s squad to show their work.

On the other side of this one is a road trip through the state of Mississippi and another shot at Georgia in Knoxville. It’s the last test against a tournament team before the SEC Tournament, and will either cast our vision back toward the bracket with a win, or deeper into what makes this team tick with a loss.

9:00 PM ET, but hey, we made it to ESPN2! Have I mentioned we still have the television schedule of a team picked to finish 13th?

Go Vols.

 

Five to go. Auburn just keeps winning, still two up on the Vols. The Tigers have a pair of games with South Carolina book-ending three tests against likely NCAA Tournament teams (Alabama, at Florida, at Arkansas). Tennessee has just one such test with Florida, plus two with Georgia and a quick trip through the state of Mississippi. It’s not over, but it’s close.

The larger concern for Tennessee is (re?)discovering its best basketball with March on the horizon. A six-game winning streak and whispers of a one seed came crashing down in a 28-point loss at Alabama, and the Vols nearly squandered a pair of double-digit leads against South Carolina in Knoxville.

Tennessee is still 13th in KenPom and RPI, and right on the 3/4 seed line in the Bracket Matrix. It’s been an amazing year. How can the Vols work to ensure their best basketball isn’t behind them?

A couple of benchmarks still hold up: Tennessee is 14-1 when shooting better than 36% from the arc, 17-3 when getting an assist on at least 45% of their made baskets. Share the ball, make threes, win the game. But I think what really makes Tennessee hum goes deeper than that.

Grant Williams averages 16.2 points per game, 21.3% of Tennessee’s scoring load. The Vols don’t go as he goes – Texas A&M and Iowa State are the only power conference teams to hold him to single digits, and Tennessee won both those games – but they do go to him first. Tennessee’s offense also looks to create opportunities for Admiral Schofield, next in scoring at 12.3 per game.

Those two are generally consistent in both wins and losses. The difference between victory and defeat for Tennessee is most often what the rest of the team does. And when the Vols are at their best, the rest of the team does two things really well (all this data is compiled from Sports Reference).

One: Jordan Bowden hits threes. Tennessee is 14-3 when Bowden hits at least one three, and 12-1 when he scores in double digits. The Vols looked to him like never before against South Carolina, and he delivered: 4-of-10 from the arc and 14 points. That performance broke a chilly 3-for-20 streak in the previous five games. Bowden is still one of the league’s best shooters at 44.2% from the arc. When defenses have to account for him on the perimeter, everything runs better in Tennessee’s offense.

Two, Tennessee is at its best when its guards produce, but not too much. You never know who is going to be the one on any given night between Jordan Bone, James Daniel, and Lamonte Turner. But there is a statistical sweet spot for the three combined:

• When Bone, Daniel, and Turner account for less than 20% of Tennessee’s points, the Vols are 3-2. Two of those three wins are Presbyterian and Furman. The two losses are UT’s worst offensive performances of the year: at Missouri and at Alabama. Those are the only two times the Vols have scored less than 60 points; Tennessee’s three guards combined for 10 points in Tuscaloosa, 11 in CoMo.
• When Bone, Daniel, and Turner account for more than 50% of Tennessee’s points, the Vols are 1-2. The one win was at Iowa State, which Tennessee’s defense gets credit for as much as anything else. The two losses are Arkansas and Auburn, late-game shootouts fueled by foul trouble and great guard play on the other bench. This team is not built to win playing through its guards first.
• When Bone, Daniel and Turner account for 21-49% of Tennessee’s points, the Vols are 15-2. And the two losses are no-shame affairs to Villanova and North Carolina. All of Tennessee’s best wins – Kentucky x2, Texas A&M, Purdue, NC State – are in this realm. Their average contribution is around 31%. Here are their game-by-game contributions.

The Vols are still eighth in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings. They’re good enough to win even when shots aren’t falling. But Tennessee’s best basketball is a balanced effort from Williams, Schofield, Bowden from the arc, and getting just enough (but not too much) from its three guards. And this group of six players all contribute to Tennessee’s stellar assist percentage: all of them average between 1.5 and and 3.5 assists per game.

These last five games offer a last chance to improve before the stakes are raised. The strength of the league means the SEC Tournament quarterfinals will look a lot like the second round of the NCAA Tournament. If there are no upsets on Thursday in St. Louis, Friday could feature eight tournament-bound teams; seven of them are an eight seed or better in the latest Bracket Matrix. The Vols could finish second in the league and face Kentucky in their first game of the SEC Tournament. Nothing will be easy.

How easy will tomorrow’s test at Georgia be? The Dawgs have two wins in their last eight games, but both are against Florida. Mark Fox might be coaching for his job; Georgia is 14-11 but should miss the NCAA Tournament for the seventh time in his nine years. Winning really big in football can make one a little more hungry in basketball.

Their struggles may also keep Yante Maten from SEC Player of the Year, despite averaging 19.5 points and and 8.7 rebounds in one of the slowest offenses in college basketball. The Dawgs are also one of the worst teams in the nation at forcing turnovers. It could be a good opportunity for Tennessee’s offense to get back in its groove.

6:00 PM Saturday, SEC Network. Go Vols.

 

 

 

For whatever percentage of today was Tennessee feeling too good about itself, this loss was a good thing going forward. I don’t know how high that percentage is, but I’m sure it’s there after the win at Rupp and whispers of one seeds. The Vols were humbled today.

And whatever percentage was effort, with Alabama holding a double-digit rebounding advantage for much of the day? I’d imagine it will be corrected, much the same as when it presented itself in the loss to Auburn. Rick Barnes is putting a lot of it on these two things in the postgame.

Alabama still has a murderous schedule left, but their potential is quite high. The margin was zero fun, but this won’t go in the books as a bad loss. It’s certainly not great to see the Vols take their largest defeat of the year, but Tennessee should still have six losses to six NCAA Tournament teams. Credit the Tide for playing so well.

My biggest concern, both coming in and going out of this game, is Tennessee’s struggle to defend elite guard play.

The Vols have given up 80+ points four times this year. Alabama only got 78, but as the backups played the last several minutes I’m counting this one as 80+. And every time, the opposition gets there through its guards:

• Villanova Bridges & Brunson: 15-of-26 (57.7%), 45 points
• Arkansas Barford & Macon: 20-of-36 (55.6%), 61 points
• Auburn Brown & Harper: 10-of-30 (30%), 36 points
• Vanderbilt LaChance & Lee: 13-of-25 (52%), 37 points
• Alabama Petty & Sexton: 10-of-17 (58.8%), 30 points

To be clear, the Vols don’t always get blown up by great guards. Tennessee’s problem with Auburn, as you can see, wasn’t defending outright. It was giving up 22 offensive rebounds. Tennessee also shut down Iowa State’s guards, which is harder than it looked as it turns out.

But against great guards from Villanova, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Alabama, the Vols have had a tough time keeping them off the scoreboard. And while some have been hot from the arc, most often they have taken advantage of Tennessee off the dribble. That’s how much of Alabama’s massive advantage in the paint happened today.

And today was the first time the Vols got punched by great guards, and their own guards didn’t punch back. Alabama’s defense has always been good, and today they held Bone, Daniel, and Turner to 3-of-14 (21.4%) and 10 points. That’s how this Tennessee team gets blown out.

So perhaps Alabama is just a bad match-up. When the other team isn’t so strong defensively, you get Arkansas and Vanderbilt (and while Vandy didn’t score 80+ in the second meeting and Saben Lee went 0-for-4, Riley LaChance and Jeff Roberson combined for 17-of-32 and 46 points). But until Tennessee consistently proves otherwise, it’s something you’ll be searching your bracket for.

File it away; the Vols will get another test against great guards from Florida on February 21. Even great teams have weaknesses; Alabama just exploited what appears to be Tennessee’s better than anyone else.

The race is on for the SEC title: Auburn opened the door with a one-point home loss to Texas A&M Wednesday night. The Tigers remain one game up on Tennessee with seven to play, two up if you’re looking to win this thing outright. The head-to-head police department is here to remind you it’s difficult to call the Vols SEC Champions with an entirely straight face if they finish tied with Auburn. But I’m sure we’ll take what we can get.

KenPom and RPI Forecast project the Vols to finish 13-5 in the SEC, a 5-2 homestretch. KenPom has Auburn at 14-4 (likewise 5-2), but RPI Forecast now projects them at 13-5. ESPN’s BPI predicts 13.8 conference wins for Auburn, 13.6 for Tennessee.

Here are the final seven games for each team, with win probabilities from KenPom:

Tennessee		Auburn
at Alabama	64%	at Georgia	68%
South Carolina	90%	Kentucky	75%
at Georgia	69%	at South Carolina	72%
Florida	80%	Alabama	83%
at Ole Miss	74%	at Florida	55%
at Mississippi State	66%	at Arkansas	60%
Georgia	87%	South Carolina	89%

(Oddly enough, the Vols and Tigers have the exact same remaining home/away dates.)

A clearer SEC hierarchy is starting to take hold in KenPom. Tennessee remains seventh, with Auburn 10th after the loss to A&M. The Aggies are now the third-best team in the league in KenPom, living up to their non-conference body of work at #23. Kentucky, Missouri, and Florida are all between 28-36.

But over in the Bracket Matrix, there’s a slightly different pecking order. Auburn and Tennessee both find themselves in the chase for a one or, more likely, a two seed. Kentucky hovers as a five. From there, the SEC has five teams currently seeded between eight and ten.

Alabama is in the thick of that race. They are eighth in the league in KenPom (53rd overall), seventh in RPI (42nd), and a nine seed in the matrix. But their remaining schedule is a nightmare: Tennessee, LSU, at Kentucky, at Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, at Texas A&M. That’s six of the other seven SEC teams in the matrix left to play, and they’re coming off a loss at Mississippi State.

What Alabama does well:

• Collin Sexton gets 18.6 points in 29.7 minutes, a projected lottery pick. I still think Tennessee’s biggest trouble spot is defending elite guard play; here’s another opportunity before the NCAA Tournament to see what we’ve learned. Bama doesn’t necessarily go as he goes: the Tide beat Auburn without him, while he put 23 on Missouri two weeks ago but the Tigers won.
• Shot-blocking. The Tide are sixth nationally in block percentage, sending back 16.4% of opponent shots. 6’9″ Donta Hall is the leader here, 23rd nationally in individual block percentage and sending back 2.3 shots per game.
• Defense, and generally all facets of it. The Tide give up just 31% from the arc on the year, 23rd nationally, and just 29.1% in SEC play. Opponents shoot just 41.1% against them overall. They’re 15th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings. Alabama is 7-0 when holding opponents to 64 points or less, including wins over Rhode Island, Texas A&M, and Florida.

Where Alabama struggles is fairly straightforward:  threes and free throws. They beat Auburn and Oklahoma with above-average performances from the arc, shooting 18-of-42 (42.9%) combined. But on the year the Tide shoot 32.3% from three, 301st nationally. And they are 273rd from the line at just 68.4%.

Alabama’s overall offense isn’t consistent enough to win ugly, despite their great defense. The Tide are 1-7 when shooting less than 43.5%; by contrast, the Vols have nine wins while shooting below 43.5%. So even if Tennessee finds itself in Bama’s kind of game, the Vols are much better at winning ugly than they are.

6:00 PM Saturday on the SEC Network. Can the Vols sweep the week and survive what could be their most difficult test in these final seven games?

 

If you are new to this team or this program in 2018, it’s hard to put into words what winning in Rupp Arena means for Tennessee. Take all this win means for this individual season – and it will be significant – and set it aside. We’ve got an extra day before going to Tuscaloosa, and we’ll take it. There will be plenty of words to come about seeding, brackets, RPI, etc.

Rupp Arena opened for the 1976-77 season. The Vols won twice in the first four years. In the 38 years since, the Vols had two wins: 1999 in an ugly affair like tonight, and 2006 because Chris Lofton willed it to be so.

Many, many Tennessee teams have gone into Rupp and left something beyond embarrassed. In 1993 the Vols lost to Kentucky at the SEC Tournament at Rupp by 61 points. The next four years they lost by 19, 19, 17, and 34. When the Cats came to Knoxville you could at least hope, even if only for a couple of media timeouts. When the Vols went to Lexington, hope died at the state line.

And when Tennessee Basketball came to life, first under Jerry Green and then Bruce Pearl, the results only changed those two times. Two wins in the last 19 years is bad without the 19 years of bad before it. The #6 Vols went to Rupp in 2000, en route to the Sweet 16, and lost by 13. Bruce Pearl’s 2007 team, also a Sweet 16 participant, lost by 19 in Rupp. The 2008 squad was ranked third when they faced an unraked UK team in Rupp; they lost by six. The next four years Tennessee lost by 19, 11, 12, 25, and 10. Cuonzo’s last team got it down to eight.

Rick Barnes’ first team lost in Rupp by 10. Last year the Vols lost by 25 in Lexington.

Tonight, we won.

Rick Barnes is now 4-2 against Kentucky at Tennessee.

Play this game ten times, each team wins five

If it felt like you couldn’t breathe watching this one, that’s because the entire game was played within one possession, except for one possession. Tennessee went up 50-46 on two Grant Williams free throws with 4:54 to play. That lasted ten seconds before PJ Washington hit two free throws. And that was the start of a 7-0 Kentucky run to put the Cats on the cusp of a two-possession lead, 53-50 with 3:18 to play.

Jordan Bowden kept pace with Tennessee’s next four points. Grant Williams hit two free throws when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed one. But when Gilgeous-Alexander made a jumper to put the Cats up two with 90 seconds left, Admiral Schofield missed a three. Kentucky had the ball and a two-point lead with 1:09 to play.

It wasn’t just the scoreboard, but the stat sheet as well that proved how close these two teams were tonight. Tennessee shot 42.3%, Kentucky 42.2%. Tennessee hit 23.8% from the arc, Kentucky 21.6%. The Vols were 14-of-16 (85.7%) at the line; Kentucky shot just 72% but got there more often, going 18-of-25.

Tennessee was +1 in offensive rebounding, +2 overall. Both teams blocked four shots. Kentucky had 15 turnovers, Tennessee 13. One foul separated these two teams.

But the most important difference for Tennessee was steals. Most of UT’s turnovers were self-inflicted. Most of Kentucky’s were Tennessee takeaways.

The Vols had nine steals, and two of them came in that final 1:09. Kyle Alexander came up with the first, giving them a chance to tie or take the lead. Tennessee struggled to run its offense all night; Grant Williams had just three shot attempts thanks to excellent work denying him the ball by Kentucky. Admiral Schofield’s 12 points came on 16 shots. Jordan Bowden had 13 points but was 1-of-5 from the arc.

So when in doubt on their most important possession of a game when every possession mattered, the answer was Lamonte Turner.

He was the answer at the end of regulation against Purdue, another 50/50 affair with an even better opponent. And he may very well represent Tennessee’s true ceiling in March. The Vols are a great basketball team. When he’s hot, they are an elite one.

His “why not?” three will probably leave Kentucky fans asking the opposite question, and that’s fine. A game like tonight could have gone either way. But they only go one way in the end, and tonight Tennessee wasn’t just close in Rupp, they cashed in.

Turner’s three led to the second steal in those final 61 seconds, as Jordan Bowden found the ball and found Schofield on a run-out to put the Vols up three with four seconds to play. They survived a missed Kentucky free throw in the final second, survived the building, and are helping Tennessee fans survive enormous disappointment on the football side. It’s funny how it works, but for the third time in a dozen years – after missing bowl eligibility for the first time in 17 years in 2005, watching Lane Kiffin leave in the middle of the night in January 2010, and everything that went sideways last fall – Tennessee is putting together a truly special basketball season from the ashes of autumn.

For that, for tonight, and for everything Rick Barnes has done for a program that can proudly stand on its own two feet, and quite tall tonight…for everything, we are grateful.

Enjoy this.

You know the numbers by now: four wins in the 40-year history of Rupp Arena, none since 2006. Tonight an even bigger prize is on the table: Tennessee hasn’t swept Kentucky since 1999.

In the north, Calipari calls for aid:

We need you Tuesday to be at your best from the tip to the finish. If we’re going good, ride it and push us to make the lead unbearable. If we’re struggling some, encourage us and bring us back. The last eight minutes of the game, do not sit down! We need you more than ever now!

— John Calipari (@UKCoachCalipari) February 4, 2018

When the head coach of a program like Kentucky basketball (or Tennessee football) posts something like this, things aren’t going as well as they’d like. The Cats are 17-6 (6-4), hanging on at 24th in the AP poll. A three-game win streak was snapped at Missouri on Saturday; Florida beat them in Rupp three weeks ago.

Three keys for tonight’s opportunity:

• Who has the better game: Admiral Schofield or PJ Washington? In our first meeting, Washington had 13 points on 6-of-8 shooting, but played just 23 minutes with cramps. While Tennessee’s post players will have to do a better job defending Washington this time, Schofield plays the corresponding role on the other end of the floor. Rick Barnes loves to attack Kentucky with undersized bigs:  Armani Moore had terrific games against the Cats, Schofield had 15 points off the bench in Tennessee’s win over #4 Kentucky last season, and followed up with 20 points and nine rebounds in Knoxville earlier this year. Grant Williams will get the attention, but Tennessee needs Schofield to take advantage to get this thing done.
• Kentucky’s three-point shooting. This season Kentucky is 16-1 when they shoot at least 30% from the arc, 1-5 when they don’t. If I was a Kentucky fan, I’d take comfort in this stat: 30% isn’t much to ask for, and when the Cats can splash just a few threes to go with their incredible talent, they’re really tough to beat. But the memories of John Calipari’s first team in Lexington – still the only one at UK to feature a pair of NBA All-Stars in John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins – would also make me a little uneasy. That team lost in Knoxville because it made only two three-pointers, then lost in the Elite Eight for basically the same reason. The good news for Tennessee: the Vols are the one in 16-1 this season, beating Kentucky despite the Cats hitting 7-of-19 (36.8%) from the arc.
• Kevin Knox is Kentucky’s leading scorer at 15.1 points per game. But he has struggled in Kentucky’s four SEC losses. The Vols held him to six points on 1-of-9 shooting. At South Carolina he had 21 points on 16 shots, but went 1-of-8 from the arc. Florida held him to nine, and Missouri held him to five last time out. Tennessee’s defense has been more vulnerable to elite guard play; they did really well against the 6’9″ Knox the first time around, but how will it go in Rupp?

You know you’re having an incredible year when losing in Rupp could be considered a disappointment. The history of this series in Lexington makes me feel like this is a nothing-to-lose date for Tennessee. But the narrative of Tennessee’s season suggests the opposite. The Vols have stared down better foes, but if Calipari gets his wish, not a more hostile environment. Can this Tennessee team pull off one of the program’s rarest feats?

7:00 PM ET on the big boy network for once, Dickie V and all, baby.

Let’s win.

 

If Tennessee’s third straight 20+ point win didn’t give you the vapors, this definitely will:

Surprise losses by Duke and Kansas yesterday opened up the race for the fourth No. 1 seed (with Villanova, Virginia and Purdue near-locks). Behind them, chance to earn a No. 1 seed, per BPI:

Tennessee: 24%
Duke: 22%
Auburn: 13%
Xavier: 13%
Michigan State: 11%
Kansas: 10%

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) February 4, 2018

Deep breaths.

This is a ceiling week for Tennessee: at Kentucky, at Alabama. These two and a visit from Florida on February 21 are the remaining signature wins on Tennessee’s schedule. The Vols also have a second date with Ole Miss, plus four games with teams currently on the wrong side of the bubble: two with Georgia, a visit from South Carolina and a trip to Starkville.

So here’s some good news if the topic of this post is a little too much for you: if the Vols just go 4-4 in these last eight games, they’ll finish 21-9 (11-7) with a projected RPI of 20. The Sagrain ratings at RPI Forecast project a 5-3 finish, Ken Pomeroy’s like 6-2. And so does ESPN’s BPI, which thinks so highly of the Vols as a one seed.

Before last weekend, I felt like thinking of the Vols as a three seed was greedy. After missing both the NCAAs and NIT the last three years, it’s good for us to be cautious. But BPI has no such burden.

Villanova, Purdue, Virginia and…

The only three teams to receive first place votes in both polls, this trio is clearly college basketball’s top tier. They also go 1-2-3 in KenPom. Villanova is +33.22 in adjusted efficiency margin; only 2015 Kentucky and the team that beat them from Wisconsin have finished above 33 in KenPom in the last six years. Virginia is right behind them at 32.86, with Purdue at 29.85. They have four losses between them; Virginia and Purdue are a combined 23-0 in conference play.

Five weeks is still a long time til Selection Sunday, but these three are putting significant distance between themselves and the field. But that fourth one seed?

Can Tennessee really get in the mix? Should we even take Tennessee seriously as a potential two seed?

Historical Context: The Last One Seed & The Four Twos

I’d expect Tennessee to be a three in the Bracket Matrix this week. What would it take for the Vols to go higher than that?

Here’s how the last one seed and the four two seeds have looked on Selection Sunday since 2012, using the selection committee’s seed list (thanks, Wikipedia) with RPI ratings from Real Time RPI and pre-tournament KenPom data:

Seed	Team	Record	RPI	KenPom
2017 L1	Gonzaga	32-1	8	1
2017 2A	Kentucky	29-5	4	4
2017 2B	Arizona	30-4	2	21
2017 2C	Duke	27-8	6	14
2017 2D	Louisville	24-8	7	6
2016 L1	Oregon	28-6	2	13
2016 2A	Michigan State	29-5	12	2
2016 2B	Oklahoma	25-7	6	8
2016 2C	Villanova	29-5	4	5
2016 2D	Xavier	27-5	7	18
2015 L1	Wisconsin	31-3	4	2
2015 2A	Virginia	29-3	7	5
2015 2B	Arizona	31-3	5	3
2015 2C	Gonzaga	32-2	8	7
2015 2D	Kansas	26-8	3	12
2014 L1	Virginia	28-6	9	4
2014 2A	Villanova	28-4	5	7
2014 2B	Michigan	25-8	10	12
2014 2C	Kansas	24-9	3	5
2014 2D	Wisconsin	26-7	6	10
2013 L1	Gonzaga	31-2	6	4
2013 2A	Miami	27-6	4	13
2013 2B	Duke	27-5	1	5
2013 2C	Georgetown	25-6	11	15
2013 2D	Ohio State	26-7	10	7
2012 L1	Michigan State	27-7	3	3
2012 2A	Kansas	27-6	6	4
2012 2B	Duke	27-6	5	13
2012 2C	Ohio State	27-7	7	2
2012 2D	Missouri	30-4	10	5

A couple observations:

• The last one seed had six or seven losses three times in the last six years. Two other times it was Gonzaga. Only once, with Wisconsin in 2015, have we seen four truly dominant power conference options on the first line.
• Of the 24 two seeds in the last six years, nine had between 7-9 losses.
• All 30 teams represented here had an RPI of 12 or better. 28 of them had a KenPom rating of 15 or better. RPI isn’t the best way to judge a basketball team, but the committee still values it, especially at the top. Strength of schedule matters, and the Vols will be in good shape there.

What does Tennessee need for an RPI of 12 or better? RPI Forecast puts the Vols at 11 if they finish 23-7, 15 if they’re 22-8. There would still be an opportunity for those numbers to go up or down at the SEC Tournament (and remember, unless the Vols are going to win the SEC Tournament for the first time since 1979, they’ll pick up an additional loss in St. Louis).

History suggests if the Vols want that last one seed, they’re going to need a 7-1 finish, or 6-2 and an SEC Tournament title. Both RPI and BPI project all the other teams in the hunt for the last one seed to finish with fewer losses than Tennessee, and considering the pedigree of that list, I’m not sure the Vols would get the benefit of the doubt. A one seed seems unlikely.

But a two seed? That’s doable.

Even a 5-3 finish would get the Vols in that conversation. Tennessee’s resume is extremely strong, as is the SEC’s reputation this year. Going 6-2 in these last eight would make Tennessee awfully hard to deny on the two line.

The most meaningful opportunity left in the regular season is the next one. We’ll know a lot more about Tennessee’s ceiling this time next week. But from a distance, it’s quite high. And while a one seed might be a little out of reach, a two is not…and this team would probably be a three if the tournament started today.

What a ridiculous thought that was at the start of the year. And what an incredible job Rick Barnes and this team have done.

Lots of good work still on the table. Go Vols.

The Vols have been checking off all the signs of a great team this season:

• Signature wins (Purdue, Kentucky, get back to me on Texas A&M)
• Competitive with elite teams (Villanova, North Carolina, Auburn?)
• No bad losses

The graduate-level version of no bad losses is, “Blow out bad teams.” Add another check.

After letting Vanderbilt rally from down 20 to within two before surviving, the Vols have discarded drama: beat Iowa State by 23, beat LSU by 23, and today beat Ole Miss by 33.

Look at all this: 53.2% from the floor, 13-of-29 (44.8%) from the arc, 78.9% from the line, 27 assists on 33 made baskets, and six turnovers. Ole Miss shot 11-of-25 (44%) from three and lost by 33!

Next week was going to be a ceiling week before today’s result: the Vols are at Kentucky, then at Alabama. Tennessee hasn’t won at Rupp since 2006, hasn’t swept Kentucky since 1999, and has four wins in the history of that building. Alabama just dominated Florida in Gainesville and beat Oklahoma in Tuscaloosa last weekend.

But what might be on the other side of next week now seems even higher. The Vols are a four seed in the Bracket Matrix; I’ve thought for weeks this team had 4-6 potential, which is amazing compared to preseason expectations. But saying Tennessee is a great team and Tennessee can beat anybody is a long way from hyperbole now. I think we can start dreaming a little bigger. The Vols have earned it.

Big, big week ahead. Enjoy it.

The Vols are 16-5 (6-3), tied for second in the SEC, and host Ole Miss tomorrow (6:00 PM ET, SEC Network). The Rebels are 11-11 (4-5), 76th in KenPom, and yet to win on the road this year. They are probably a little better than their record: three of their home losses were in overtime, and two weeks ago they lost at Texas A&M by two and at Arkansas by four. But if the Vols can win their eighth game in nine tries, we’ll get to test the ceiling again next week at Kentucky and at Alabama.

We’ll save the larger conversation about Tennessee’s potential until then. For now, let’s put UT’s first three months in historical context.

A dozen Vol squads have made the NCAA Tournament since it went to 64 teams in 1985. Two of them won the SEC (a four-way tie in 2000 and outright in 2008). Jerry Green’s 1999 and 2000 teams earned a four seed in the NCAA Tournament; Bruce Pearl’s 2006 and 2008 squads earned a two seed. And of course, the 2010 squad made the program’s only Elite Eight from a six seed.

And all of them made it through January with less than six losses.

Season	Record	Pct.	NCAA Seed	SEC	Sixth loss
2014	21-12 (11-7)	0.636	11	4th	January 18
2011	19-14 (8-8)	0.576	9	7th	January 11
2010	25-8 (11-5)	0.758	6	3rd	February 13
2009	21-12 (10-6)	0.636	9	2nd	January 24
2008	29-4 (14-2)	0.879	2	1st	n/a
2007	22-10 (10-6)	0.689	5	2nd	January 24
2006	21-7 (12-4)	0.750	2	2nd	March 1
2001	22-10 (8-8)	0.689	8	6th	February 10
2000	24-6 (12-4)	0.800	4	1st	SEC Tourn.
1999	20-8 (12-4)	0.714	4	2nd	February 2
1998	20-8 (9-7)	0.714	8	5th	February 11
1989	19-10 (11-7)	0.655	10	5th	February 1

(Records listed from Selection Sunday)

By any metric, Rick Barnes’ team is having one of those years to this point.

Tennessee’s schedule is third nationally in KenPom; the Vols have been challenged without question. But the schedule hasn’t been as kind for fans wanting to get on board with this team. The Vols’ biggest win came the day before Thanksgiving with the football program in the midst of a coaching search. They hosted Auburn on January 2, long before anyone knew Auburn was this good. Then they caught Texas A&M after the Aggies had fallen out of the Top 25.

Three of Tennnessee’s nine SEC games earned the dreaded 9:00 PM tip-off slot, and two more are on the schedule. And, other than the Battle 4 Atlantis games, the Vols will be on ESPN or ESPN2 just five times this year (North Carolina, at Wake Forest, at South Carolina, at Kentucky, and Florida).

The Vols have the television schedule of a team picked to finish 13th in the SEC. And their overall conference schedule was not only easier, but front-loaded. If you were looking to get invested in this team and wanted to come to a big home game beyond January 13, the choices weren’t great: Vanderbilt, LSU, Ole Miss, South Carolina at 9:00 PM on a Tuesday, Florida at 9:00 PM on a Wednesday, or Georgia. The league office didn’t do this team any favors in that regard.

It may not feel the same because of the schedule, or because the coach doesn’t paint his chest, there’s no Chris Lofton and no soon-to-be NBA stars, and they’re not breaking a lengthy tournament drought like Jerry Green’s teams. But this team is on the same pace through three months that Tennessee’s best teams of the modern era have set. And with one more win tomorrow, we can spend the next week dreaming even bigger than an amazing first three months have allowed.

Go Vols.

 

And now, the turn toward home.

The SEC didn’t disappoint over the weekend, taking the Big 12/SEC Challenge from the nation’s best conference with six wins. The Big 12 had 16 non-conference losses coming into the challenge before Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt got it done for the SEC. The Big 12 remains the leader in conference RPI, but the SEC is now third.

Lines are becoming clear in the Bracket Matrix as well:

Yep, this is still happening: 

• Auburn is 19-2 (7-1)…and they’re getting better. After a narrow loss at Alabama, the Tigers beat Georgia by 14, won at Missouri by 18, then beat LSU by 25. Those are three bubble teams, and they all went in Bruce Pearl’s wood chipper. They’re eighth in KenPom and now a two seed in the matrix. And, already a game up on the field, they only have one game with Kentucky (February 14 at Auburn) and Florida (February 24 in Gainesville) left on the schedule. We were waiting for one of those two to show themselves as the league’s elite team…turns out it’s been the team atop the standings all along.
• Tennessee was picked 13th in preseason, have you heard? They’re just behind the Tigers (who were picked ninth) in KenPom at #10, and now a four seed in the matrix. Only four Tennessee teams have earned a four seed or higher in the 64+ team NCAA Tournament: Jerry Green’s 1999 and 2000 squads were both a four, and Bruce Pearl’s 2006 and 2008 teams were both twos. UT’s head-to-head loss to Auburn is costly for winning the league outright, essentially making the Vols three games back. But with a strength of schedule still rated first in KenPom, the Vols have a slightly easier road the rest of the way home. Tennessee too has games left with Kentucky (in Rupp, February 4) and Florida (in Knoxville, February 21), plus a road trip to Tuscaloosa where the Tigers fell next Saturday. But its other seven games are against teams currently out of the field of 68 in the matrix.

Yep, they’re still here:

• Florida is 6-2 in the league, though they are just prone enough to weirdness to make their fans nervous. The Gators had a 1-4 stretch in late November/early December, then ripped off six in a row. They won at A&M by 17, won at Missouri at the buzzer, then did the same at Rupp. They spanked Arkansas in Gainesville. But their two conference losses? At Ole Miss (11-10 overall), then to South Carolina in Gainesville. The Gators are a five seed in the matrix; they’ll be around.
• Kentucky too. Back-to-back losses two weeks ago put the Cats out of the Top 25, but a win at #7 West Virginia featuring a 17-point comeback solved that problem. In John Calipari’s previous eight seasons at Kentucky, his teams have either been juggernauts by tournament time (three number one seeds and a two last year) or still capable of maturing at the right time to make a run (Final Four appearances as a four and eight seed, plus another four seed and one NIT). This team won’t see the top two lines of the bracket, but what they did at West Virginia shows they’ll still be capable of making that run from further down; they’re a five seed in the latest matrix.

Bubble In (for now)

• Arkansas is a nine seed in the Bracket Matrix. RPI (26) likes them more than KenPom (47). The Razorbacks still have two games with Texas A&M, a visit from Kentucky, and a trip to Alabama on the schedule. But, having already lost to Mississippi State and LSU, consistency may be the biggest thing between them and the bracket. They’re at A&M tonight.
• Alabama is also a nine seed in the matrix, and scored a huge resume win over Oklahoma in the challenge. The Tide also have an advantage in RPI (29) over KenPom (56). They’re tied for third in the SEC right now with the Vols and Cats at 5-3, but their schedule is murderous down the stretch. Their last 10 games include Florida twice, visits from the Vols, Arkansas, and Missouri, plus road trips to Kentucky, Auburn, and Texas A&M. If this team gets in, they’ll deserve it.
• Texas A&M continues to live on the right side of the line thanks to their pre-conference resume. A 10 seed in the latest matrix, the Aggies are 2-7 since being ranked fifth in the nation. KenPom still really likes them at 35th, and their RPI agrees at 36th. Can the ship be righted?

Bubble Out (for now)

• Missouri is in the first four out in the matrix. But the Tigers have lost three in a row since beating Tennessee, all by double digits, and now they’re at Alabama and vs Kentucky back-to-back. It’s still good progress for a program that won eight SEC games in the last three years, but Cuonzo Martin will need more of that February magic to get this team in the field.
• South Carolina is in the next four out. The Gamecocks are 70th in KenPom and 56th in RPI, but did beat Kentucky and Florida already. Like Alabama, their schedule gives them all the opportunity they need. After hosting Mississippi State tomorrow, Carolina is at A&M, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Tennessee, vs Auburn. They’re also at Auburn in the season finale. The Gamecocks are very much in control of their own destiny.
• Georgia looked great at 11-3 (2-1) coming off a win over Alabama. Since then they’re 1-5, the lone victory by one point over LSU. They’ve still got two with Florida (starting tonight in Athens) and two with Tennessee, plus a visit from Auburn. But the margin of error is thin; the Dawgs could be out of the hunt before Tennessee sees them the first time on February 17.
• LSU is likely to vanish from this conversation after dismissing two players and suspending two others, leaving them with seven scholarship options against Tennessee on Wednesday in Knoxville. Back-to-back wins at Texas A&M and Arkansas put them in a few brackets, but they’ve not followed up with any wins of note and would need something like an 8-2 finish just to have a Top 50 RPI.

The SEC has never put seven teams in the NCAA Tournament. Right now the Bracket Matrix has seven in and Missouri just out. The league has a lot to be proud of to this point; now we’ll see who can separate themselves in the final 10 games.