Author Archives: Will Shelton

Into the Great Wide Open

Of the 52 entries in Wednesday’s Bracket Matrix, 50 had the Vols as a three seed. This chaos season has actually solidified the top of the tournament: Alabama, Houston, Kansas, and Purdue remain entrenched as the ones, with UCLA, Texas, Baylor, and Arizona firm on the two line. Should the Wildcats slip down, their brethren from Manhattan, KS are most poised to move up from the three line in the matrix. Marquette and Gonzaga join the Vols and Kansas State there.

I appreciate Joe Lunardi – who got the Vols’ placement dead on last year even while disagreeing with it – who works to put stakes on every outcome:

But we all carry the scars of last season, when winning the SEC Tournament did nothing for Tennessee on the seed line. If the Vols were a three in the bracket reveal a couple of weeks ago, and have kept pace with everyone else’s chaos…they seem likely to be a three on Selection Sunday no matter what happens from here.

The most cynical among us could make the argument that the Vols are more likely to move down because of Zakai Zeigler’s injury than move up by winning out.

https://twitter.com/Vol_Hoops/status/1631021602715598848

There are an incalculable number of words to be said about Zeigler, and thankfully more seasons left to say them. And there are plenty of words to say about Tennessee without Zeigler; Will Warren has a great breakdown of how the Vols might look.

This Tennessee team is well-versed in the chaos that defines this season:

Seven Quad 1 wins ties the Vols for ninth in the country. Tennessee is still third in NET, fourth in KenPom, and has a chance to play its way to a double-bye in the SEC Tournament on Saturday despite losing five of seven games in February. There is plenty of good already done, plenty more to be done.

We obviously saw Tennessee function at a high level against Arkansas without Zeigler (and Tyreke Key). The Vols adjusted on a fly with a lineup that included 38 minutes for Santiago Vescovi. In postseason play, Rick Barnes isn’t afraid to go this route even with all options available: against Michigan last year, Vescovi, Kennedy Chandler, and Josiah-Jordan James all played 37-38 minutes.

It feels like there’s a decent chance the first line on an opposing scout of Tennessee just became, “Get Vescovi in foul trouble.” The good news there: that’s statistically harder to do with him than any other Tennessee player. Vescovi averages 2.4 fouls per 40 minutes, the best number on the roster. It’s mostly outrageous that he plays so clean while also being 68th nationally in steal percentage. And lineups that include Vescovi + Mashack won’t have to worry about a huge drop-off there without Zeigler, as Jahmai is fifth nationally in that stat.

We might be overly partial to this as a potential red flag because we’ve seen it happen too many times in March. Two years ago the Vols lost John Fulkerson in the SEC Tournament, then saw Yves Pons get into quick foul trouble against Oregon State in round one. That forced Tennessee even deeper into combinations that just hadn’t played together much. In 2019, Kyle Alexander fouled out with three minutes left in overtime against Purdue and the Vols down one. The Boilermakers hit those two free throws, then got a layup and a dunk on their next two possessions to push the lead to seven.

But if Tennessee can keep Vescovi on the floor, I think there’s a good chance they can continue to do the things they’re very best at. Any argument that the Vols would be better without Zeigler is nonsense. But the core of what represents their best basketball – elite defense, limiting fouls, offensive rebounding, and minimally efficient three-point shooting – can survive and advance.

Best Available Blueprint

March approaches. Tennessee is holding firm on the three line in the Bracket Matrix, with clear divisions emerging among the top ten teams. At this point it would be a surprise to see something other than the current groupings in the matrix on the one and two lines, plus Kansas State and Tennessee at three.

Of course, the last few weeks have held more surprise than the Vols would’ve liked. Tennessee has lost five of seven, but gets a bounce-back opportunity in hosting South Carolina tomorrow.

Headed into March, what is the best available blueprint for Tennessee? What numbers lead to victory most often, especially offensively as this group tries to find itself?

Nothing is guaranteed: last season the blueprint for Tennessee’s worst basketball was turning it over excessively, then the Vols had a season-low six turnovers against Michigan but lost. But if we’re looking for Tennessee’s most reliable paths to victory, so far this year it goes something like this:

17-0 when opponents score less than 60 points

It starts here, and the Vols are still plenty good at it. Tennessee is still first nationally in defensive efficiency, first in effective field goal percentage allowed, and first in three-point percentage allowed (25%). The Vols are also 17th nationally in turnovers forced and 33rd nationally in blocked shot percentage. Tennessee does almost everything at an elite level defensively. Almost.

13-1 with 16 fouls or less

In defensive free throw rate allowed, the Vols are 290th nationally. The absolute best way to beat Tennessee’s defense is to get to the free throw line.

This plays out in a number of foul-related stats:

  • 17-2 when opponents attempt 20 free throws or less (Missouri & Vanderbilt)
  • 8-1 when opponents make 11 free throws or less (Vanderbilt)
  • 0-5 when opponents have a free throw rate of 37.5% or higher

You’ll see as we go the frequency with with Missouri, Vanderbilt, or both show up as the outliers. They’re the only two teams to hit 10+ threes against the Vols. Tennessee is 1-4 when teams shoot 35+% from three, but the one is number one Alabama.

So yes, teams that are on fire from deep can hurt even Tennessee’s defense. But the more reliable way to get to them is via the free throw line. It’s always less comfortable when you feel a little reliant on how the game is being officiated. For the Vols, is there an emphasis to be placed on defending without fouling?

What about offensively, with the greatest room for improvement?

Here’s a look at each of the last six Tennessee teams, and how they’ve performed offensively in KenPom’s four factors:

SeasonKenPom OEFG%TO%OREB%FT Rate
2023722471916183
20223514012746223
2021851891317192
2020962072809665
20193182572178
20183617614141107

This team finds itself in the back half of these Barnes teams offensively. They are the worst of the group in shooting, but the best of the group in:

13-1 when getting 40+% of offensive rebounds

If you can’t make shots, you’d better be good at getting the rebound. And these Vols are great at it. Here again, the lone loss is Missouri.

We know Jonas Aidoo is a machine here; Jahmai Mashack is also better than he gets credit for. Two of Tennessee’s best offensive glass guys are, of course, Josiah-Jordan James and Julian Phillips. I obviously don’t know the depth of conversation they’re having on attacking the offensive glass vs transition defense. But Tennessee’s greatest asset offensively is the number of second chances they create for themselves. More history on this from January 16.

And then there’s this old friend:

14-2 when shooting 30+% from three

The two, of course, are Missouri and Vanderbilt. Last season, the Vols were 22-1 at this number, the lone loss at Rupp Arena. Here again, you’re not asking for a whole lot. Santiago Vescovi is heating up, now at 36.1% from the arc on the season. But Tyreke Key (33.6%) is the only other Vol shooting better than 33% among perimeter players. More history on this from February 7.

So, the best available blueprint:

  • Hold teams under 60
  • Keep opponents to less than 20 free throws
  • Crash the offensive glass at 40%
  • Shoot 30% from three

Play to your absolute strengths on defense and the offensive glass. Defend without fouling. And get simply minimum efficiency from the three point line.

We’ll see what else we can learn between now and tournament time, starting tomorrow against South Carolina. March is on the horizon. And Tennessee’s best basketball is still plenty good enough to win.

Go Vols.

Yep, this team has the most ranked wins since…

Tennessee goes for its sixth ranked win of the year at #25 Texas A&M on Tuesday night. The Vols, in fact, are 5-1 against the Top 25 this year (and 4-1 against the Top 15), the lone loss at #9 Arizona. Tennessee got it done against #3 Kansas, #13 Maryland, #10 Texas, #25 Auburn, and #1 Alabama.

It’s frustrating, of course, to get such good results against the best of your schedule, but also have an additional six losses. It’s unusual to be so good against the Top 25 but be 0-2 against a Kentucky team outside it. The Vols are 4-2 in what Bart Torvik defines as Quad 1A games; the only team in the nation with a better winning percentage vs Quad 1A is Arizona at 5-0. And, of course, the Vols have four Quad 2 losses.

We’re 27 games in now, so in part we know what we’ll know about this team. But we’ve also seen injuries mess with Tennessee’s ability to run with a consistent best five for more than a few games at a time. Most recently, only the stretch from at LSU on January 21 to Josiah-Jordan James’ injury at Vanderbilt on February 8 featured the Vols at full availability.

With JJJ and Julian Phillips still day-to-day, we don’t know for sure when we’ll see that full strength again, or how strong it will be. That makes it harder to say this team can find its best basketball late purely through lineup solidification, though it has been done here before (2010, our only appearance in the Elite Eight).

Still, the frustration of losing – in particular, to Kentucky and at the buzzer – can outweigh what has been a really strong regular season run for this team by our own historical standards.

Ranked wins don’t mean everything, and mean less in college basketball, where tournament wins are king. But I’m still a proponent of celebrating every meaningful opportunity, and ranked wins provide the best metric for that in the moment. We just finished a football season where the Vols tied 1998 with wins over six ranked teams. That’s not where you start the conversation on the accomplishments of last fall, a journey that included and ended with the Vols in the national championship conversation and a belief they can be there again.

But it was the most fun you could have along the way.

So, in the “don’t forget to have fun” department, consider this: since the AP poll expanded to 25 teams in 1989, I count only three Tennessee Basketball teams to have ever beaten more ranked teams than this one. Shout out, as always, to the media guide:

  • 2000: The eventual SEC Champions and first Vol squad to make the modern Sweet 16 beat six ranked opponents, all after January 1: #21 LSU, #9 Florida in double overtime, #7 Auburn by 29 points, #12 Florida in single overtime, #18 Kentucky, and #20 UConn a 4/5 Round 2 game.
  • 2007: Chris Lofton turned an ankle, and this team lost six of eight from January 10 through February 3. Otherwise, they went 22-5 with ranked wins over #16 Memphis in Lofton’s barrage, #15 Oklahoma State on the Dane Bradshaw tip-in, #23 Vanderbilt, #20 Kentucky, #25 Alabama, and the defending champs from #5 Florida. They also beat an unranked Texas team in a game you might’ve heard of, and lost by one point to #1 Ohio State in the Sweet 16.
  • 2022: That’s right: last season has the record with seven ranked wins. The Vols got #18 North Carolina, #6 Arizona, #13 LSU, #4 Kentucky, #3 Auburn, #14 Arkansas, then #5 Kentucky in the SEC Tournament.

So right now, put the last two years together and you’ve got a dozen ranked wins. To find a dozen ranked wins before that, you need five seasons (2017-2021). The two-year high in the Bruce Pearl era was 10 in 2007 and 2008.

So yes, March wins will always count most. But as it’s not March yet, we can’t solve that problem today. What the Vols can do is get healthy and make progress, whatever degree the one relates to the other. And, along the way, we might find more reasons to celebrate…starting tomorrow night.

Go Vols.

A Song About Tennessee

Just on the basketball side of things, just for a moment.

Tennessee has now beaten #3 Kansas, #10 Texas, and #1 Alabama. It’s February 15.

That’s good, because last year’s team beat #6 Arizona, #4 Kentucky, #3 Auburn, then #5 Kentucky again for good measure. In 2019, the Vols beat #1 Gonzaga and #4 Kentucky twice. Throw in the 2020 win at Rupp Arena over #6 Kentucky, and that’s 11 wins over Top 10 teams in the last five years.

We are good at basketball.

It’s the kind of good where, even without two starters against the number one team in the nation, you get it done. And not because you were lucky: Tennessee shot 26.1% from the arc against Alabama and missed nine free throws. The Tide shot 37.5% from three and 16-of-20 at the line.

But Tennessee won because they were Tennessee: relentless defense, taking the ball away 19 times. And in a game when every rebound was fiercely contested, the Vols grabbed 13 on the offensive end. Alabama was number one for a reason; getting it back on 32.5% of misses was huge. Put those two things together, and the Vols had 15 more shot attempts than the Tide.

And Tennessee was consistent. Alabama made a number of big shots to keep things within reach throughout the second half. But after a Zakai Zeigler free throw made it 44-40 Vols with 12:37 to play, Alabama never got within one possession. When the Tide closed again to four points with 3:30 to play, it was an offensive rebound – one of four from Jonas Aidoo – that pushed Tennessee back in command. When Santiago Vescovi missed the front end with 1:19 to play, a sequence that led to Alabama with the ball down six just 30 seconds later, he created a turnover – one of three steals on the night – then hit two free throws to effectively, appropriately, end it.

Five Vols scored between 9 and 15 points. Jahmai Mashack didn’t score, but Rob Lewis at Volquest notes he led the team in +/- thanks to his exceptional defense. Tennessee didn’t shoot it great against a great Bama defense, but they played with purpose on that end of the floor, and cleaned up enough of their misses to do what needed to be done. Defense, championships, etc.

We’ll see what championships are out there for this team to win, but tonight affirmed what’s probably always been true, only blurred by buzzer beaters: we’re good. Good enough to beat anybody. Great enough defensively to make it really hard to beat us.

That’s a few words of the many, many this team, its coaching staff, and tonight’s effort deserve, on their own.

As a…what do we call it? A bonus? A gift? A not-sure-we’ll-see-this-again-so-let’s-celebrate-it-madly?

Tennessee beat #3 Alabama in football four months ago, then beat #1 Alabama in basketball tonight.

Whatever your question, not just in football but in apparently the entire athletic department, you can believe the answer can be yes.

Tennessee is good. And, especially tonight, at our best when we’re ourselves.

Go Vols.

Tennessee, Alabama, Tempo & Turnovers

What’s the best way to follow back-to-back heartbreak? Here comes the biggest opportunity of the season.

Tennessee and Alabama have played some good ones, with four of the last five meetings being decided by five points or less. Since Nate Oats arrived, Alabama has won three of four: the Vols rallied from 15 down behind 22 from John Fulkerson to win in Tuscaloosa in 2020. Then Bama scored the first win over Tennessee in 2021, knocking down 10 threes in an eight-point win in Knoxville. Jaden Springer got hurt after playing just five minutes.

That’s a common theme: Tennessee has been short-handed from the tip in the last two meetings, and may make it three Wednesday night. In the 2021 SEC Tournament, 24 hours after Fulkerson’s concussion, the Vols fought but fell against the SEC champs 73-68. And last year in Tuscaloosa, both Fulkerson and Kennedy Chandler were out, but the Vols again were game in another 73-68 defeat. We’ll see about the availability of Josiah-Jordan James and Julian Phillips this time around.

The Vols and Tide boast two of the best defenses in the nation. Tennessee is still number one in that department, with Alabama five (and Mississippi State up to four). But they go about it in different ways. The Tide are driven by taking away good shots: Alabama is second in the nation in three-point percentage allowed (26.3%), first in two-point percentage allowed. But they do all of that without committing to the creation of turnovers: Alabama is 311th nationally in turnover percentage.

Tennessee, of course, is first in the nation in effective field goal percentage allowed, and still first in three-point percentage allowed (24.2%) after last week’s barrage. But the Vols get a lot of their work done defensively in creating turnovers: 17th nationally in turnover percentage, with Zakai Zeigler and Santiago Vescovi both excellent in creating steals.

A quick word on luck: Alabama is 32nd in that stat at KenPom, and 4-0 in games decided by one or two possessions. The Vols are 3-3 in such contests now, but carry a luck rating of 293rd. That would be the “worst” luck rating of any tournament team here, other than the poster children from 2014, who went 0-6 in one or two possession games but almost made the Elite Eight. So yeah, it felt like this:

https://twitter.com/BetSmartUS/status/1625139779649081346

Back to turnovers: last year, what made for Tennessee’s worst basketball was easily identifiable here. The Vols had a season-high 20 turnovers in the nightmare at Rupp Arena, 18 in the loss to Villanova, 18 more in an overtime escape vs Ole Miss. When the Vols turned it over 14+ times, they were 7-4, and 20-4 otherwise. Like everything else in this sport, it wasn’t bulletproof – the Vols had a season-low six turnovers against Michigan – but it was pretty clear to see what made things get away from us.

But this year, two of Tennessee’s best performances (and two of our four Quad 1 wins) came when the Vols leaned in to the chaos offensively.

Against #3 Kansas in the Bahamas, Tennessee shot 12-of-27 from three and 80% from the free throw line. The three-guard combo of Zeigler, Vescovi, and Tyreke Key had 44 points, and Tennessee won easily 64-50. We also turned it over 24 times, by far a season high.

In Starkville, without Vescovi or Key, Zakai Zeigler played 40 minutes and finished with 24 points. The Vols also got an 18/11 from Julian Phillips, and pulled away late for a 70-59 win. Similar song and dance: 10-of-24 from three, 14-of-15 at the line…and 17 turnovers.

Is there something to be said here for simply being more aggressive offensively? And how might that manifest itself against an Alabama team that really isn’t interested in trying to take the ball from you?

What the Tide are interested in is going fast when they have possession: Bama plays at the second-fastest pace in the nation overall, and gets their shots off third-fastest. This, as we know, is not Tennessee’s primary love language. But if defense continues to be the constant for the Vols – and they’ll get a big test tonight – I’m curious to see if the offense can find an additional spark by creating from chaos.

It’s been a weird set of days, but here we are: a favorite over the number one team in the nation. We’ve seen enough, both in the past and the present with this team, to believe something good is available tonight.

Beat Bama.

The most important step remains the next one

It was a “check the media guide” night, and sadly not in the fun way. Apparently I’d blocked from memory that Vanderbilt hit 18 threes against us in 2005, the Thompson-Boling Arena record. In Rick Barnes’ tenure, at least, the only teams to hit more than the 14 Missouri fired through tonight were Auburn, Colgate, and Purdue in 2019…who all did it in a span of 11 days against maybe our best team ever.

This sport can be weird.

In that department, I’m pretty sure I haven’t blocked from memory the Vols being on the wrong end of back-to-back buzzer beaters. That’s new. As such, it will be a new experience for this team to move forward from.

For what it’s worth, I thought all of this was good:

The good news here: all the big picture questions we might have or the feeling sorry for ourselves vibes have no choice but to go through #3 Alabama next.

They’ll go to Rupp Arena after that, but we’re healthiest at one-at-a-time, and no matter what this next one is our biggest one.

Health will continue to be a question mark, now both for Josiah-Jordan James and Julian Phillips, who was off to a nice start in ten minutes tonight. In response, Tyreke Key played 31 minutes, his most since 34 at Arizona. And he was on fire in the second half, finishing with 23 points on 13 shots. The Vols did their part offensively, with 12 threes and 26 free throws. The heartbreak is the only option for the lead story tonight, no doubt. But Tennessee almost beat what was an eight seed in the Bracket Matrix when they shot 14-of-26 (53.8%) from three, while playing without two starters. It’s a situation you live with more easily if it ended in different fashion.

But again: it’s all forward, and against what will feel like our biggest test. It’s a great opportunity to reframe the narrative of what this season still is, and still can be.

I’m really eager to see what’s next.

Go Vols.

Common Threads, Connecting Dots, and Free Throws

If defense is the constant, predicting what we need on the offensive end is still a moving target. So, sure: make shots. The Vols are 227th nationally in effective field goal percentage, the lowest ranking of any of the Rick Barnes tournament teams in Knoxville. In SEC play, the shooting numbers probably aren’t quite as bad as you think: fifth in the league in effective field goal percentage, fifth in three-point percentage (at just 31.8%, so either the league is just really bad at it this year, or the grind is claiming everyone right now). Last year the Vols shot 36.8% from three in league play, a tenth of a point behind Kentucky at the top.

Shots going in would be great. The offense, as it’s always done under Barnes, seeks to create good shots through good ball movement, where Tennessee still leads the SEC in assist rate.

But when shots aren’t falling, where to turn? After the loss to Kentucky, we looked to offensive rebounding, noting the Vols were 14-0 when getting more than 25% of their misses. But in Gainesville, the Vols grabbed 36.7% of their misses and lost.

After the Vols beat Auburn shooting 9.5% from the arc, we noted that Tennessee was 14-0 when shooting 30+% from three, and 23-1 at that number last season. But in Nashville, the Vols shot 36.8% from deep and lost.

It’s still true that the defense is so good, getting just minimal results from three and hitting the offensive glass usually give the Vols every chance they need. But the Vanderbilt loss highlighted something that has quickly become a glaring note: the Vols are getting to the free throw line far less than the rest of the SEC.

On the year, the Vols are 210th nationally in free throw rate. The season-long ranking is not that different from what we’ve seen last season, or even in 2019, but both of those teams rated much higher in the shot-making department.

But in 11 league games this year, the Vols are getting to the free throw line on a league-worst 20.7% of their field goal attempts. The next-worst squad is South Carolina, a woeful 241st in KenPom and 231st in offense, who gets to the line at 26.8% in SEC play. Last year Missouri was worst in the league in free throw rate at 27.5%. The Vols improved in league play in 2022 to ultimately finish fifth at 36.6%.

How do you coach your team to get to the foul line more often? Attacking the basket unsuccessfully could lead to runouts the other way that negate Tennessee’s absolute strength on the defensive end, it’s true. Playing more through the bigs could lead to more free throws: Uros Plavsic gets free throws on 39.3% of his attempts (but is shooting 36.4% from the stripe), Tobe Awaka at 35.2%. Tyreke Key’s number is higher than I thought as well.

But by far, Julian Phillips leads the Vols (and is 49th nationally) in getting free throws on 59.3% of his attempts.

This might be more of an side note than a dot to connect at this point, but when Phillips attempts at least four free throws in a game, the Vols are 11-1 (with the loss to Colorado). In the other losses: two attempts at Arizona, none vs Kentucky, three at Florida, and the only two free throws of the game before the miss at the end at Vanderbilt.

You can also use that stat to see how the offense has changed, in part due to the availability of Josiah-Jordan James. Phillips attempted 65 free throws in Tennessee’s first 10 games. Since then, he’s attempted just 31 free throws. This is of particular note, of course, because James is down with a sprained ankle for the moment.

To me, the conversation about Phillips and his role in this offense is less about not dunking it in those final seconds at Vanderbilt, and more about what he could do for this offense in getting to the line, and how he does it better on paper than anyone else on this team.

It’s February 10, and the Vols are getting ready to face the most difficult portion of their schedule, we assume without Josiah-Jordan James for at least a minute. Keep playing defense, keep hitting the offensive glass, and sure, make shots. But the greatest room for improvement in this offense is in getting to the free throw line.

Three-Point Shooting in the Barnes Era

Start going back through Tennessee’s best shooting games under Rick Barnes, and you discover very quickly how much we enjoy playing Arkansas:

UT’s Best Three-Point Shooting Games (10+ Makes, 2018-23)

  1. 2022 Arkansas: 12-of-18 (66.7%)
  2. 2018 Arkansas: 11-of-17 (64.7%)
  3. 2019 Arkansas: 11-of-18 (61.1%)
  4. 2022 Longwood: 14-of-24 (58.3%)
  5. 2023 Mississippi State: 12-of-21 (57.1%)

Stay tuned for Senior Day against the Hogs, but in the meantime, note that Tennessee’s January 3 win over Mississippi State is one of the five best performances we’ve seen from a Rick Barnes team.

And, just a few weeks later:

UT’s Worst Three-Point Shooting Games (10+ Attempts, 2018-23)

  1. 2023 Auburn: 2-of-21 (9.5%)
  2. 2022 Michigan: 2-of-18 (11.1%)
  3. 2020 Alabama: 2-of-18 (11.1%)
  4. 2023 Kentucky: 3-of-21 (14.3%)
  5. 2021 Florida: 3-of-21 (14.3%)

You’ll recall, even if you’d like not to, that the Vols hit their highest mark up there on March 5 last year, then made the list again in the Longwood game on March 17…then topped the worst list 48 hours later.

Until now, as the Vols went 2-of-21 on Saturday against Auburn.

And we won!

That, as always, is the biggest takeaway.

We assume this team can win if their shots are falling. But the truth is, this group and last year’s team are both better at that than any of their Barnes predecessors:

UT’s Record When Shooting 30+% From Three

  • 2023: 14-0
  • 2022: 23-1 (Rupp Arena)
  • 2021: 13-4
  • 2020: 8-6
  • 2019: 24-4
  • 2018: 21-6

In the “it doesn’t take much” department, Tennessee’s defense is so good, the Vols handle business with relative ease when they just get 30+% from the arc. Of those 14 wins, only two involved any degree of danger: Maryland (7-of-21, 33.3%) and Starkville (10-of-24, 41.7%).

But Auburn’s no slouch, and this team is also proving they can win even when the three ball is at the complete opposite end of the spectrum. So far this year, Tennessee has six games shooting 40+% from three, and six games shooting less than 25% from three. I wouldn’t call this team streaky, but we are hanging out at the endpoints the same amount of time. Still, the Vols are 4-2 when shooting less than 25% from three. Last year’s team at that number was 2-6. Only the 2019 Vols (5-0!) did better when threes simply weren’t going down, because they were so good at getting twos.

So yeah, you want this group to shoot 30+% from three. But when they don’t, I think offensive rebounding remains the best available metric to predict their success. The most meaningful takeaway from last week was probably Florida more than Auburn in that sense: Vols shoot 20% from three, opponent shoots 35% from three, Tennessee grabs 14 offensive rebounds but still loses in part from great individual post play on the other side. No one is bulletproof this year.

But when you look at the whole picture going back through Barnes’ tournament teams, the Auburn win is more about this team’s chances when absolutely nothing is going in, which are better than they’ve ever been. We don’t need much from three for this team to succeed. But even when we don’t get it, the Vols can still be there in the end.

Best Is Not Bulletproof

Even with the loss at Florida, the Vols are projected to finish the regular season at 25-6 (14-4) in both Torvik and KenPom. In recent history, that number would be topped only by 2000 (24-5), 2008 (28-3), and 2019 (27-4).

Of course, that probably doesn’t make Wednesday’s loss feel much better; I continue to think about these conversations in football when people say a 12-team playoff will make the regular season less meaningful. Just as Saturday’s win over Texas truly satisfied, the loss at Florida truly stings. It was the first of Tennessee’s four losses this year that couldn’t be explained by teams keeping the Vols off the offensive glass: Colorado, Arizona, and especially Kentucky (9%) held the Vols to less than 23% in offensive rebounding percentage. At Florida, the Vols grabbed 31.8% of their misses, but still couldn’t overcome on the offensive end.

Florida also shot a season-high 35% from the arc against Tennessee. The only other team to shoot 33+% against us was USC, who took the Vols to overtime in the Bahamas. Of note, last season 14 teams shot 33+% against the Vols from the arc; the Vols went 9-5 in those games, including wins over North Carolina, Arkansas, and Arizona.

I think some of the worry of any loss this season will get tied directly back to Michigan by default, which we can’t do anything about until March comes around again. Last year the Wolverines shot 37.5% (6-of-16) from the arc against Tennessee, combined with strong individual post play and an ice-cold performance from the Vols. Because it beat a UT team playing its very best basketball at the time last year, there’s always a concern it could do the same to this UT team playing the very best in KenPom in program history.

So here’s the least-fun but always-necessary version of this post that shows up every year: even the best Tennessee teams lose games, and usually ones you think they shouldn’t.

Every one of Bruce Pearl’s teams lost at least one game to a team finishing outside the Top 50 in KenPom. The 2008 squad went to Rupp Arena at 16-1 and lost to a Kentucky team that finished 78th. The 2010 Elite Eight squad lost at #91 Georgia.

Rick Barnes’ two best teams have, in part, been victims of their own success in a different kind of way. The 2019 squad started 23-1, but faced a back-loaded SEC schedule. They lost five times in their final 13 games, but all were to Top 20 KenPom foes. And last year’s team didn’t lose to anyone outside the Top 30, but also didn’t lose to anyone other than #18 Arkansas after January, until the Michigan game…which made it sting so much more, of course. But along the way, both of those teams had very un-fun days in Rupp Arena, losing by a combined 45 points.

This team’s “worst” loss is likely to remain #64 Colorado, but that was the second game of the season. Florida is currently 38th in KenPom; we’ll see where the Gators finish. But there’s the combination of “best ever” in advanced metrics, and losses, other than Arizona, where the offense suffers…plus a fairly back-loaded schedule in its own right. So it creates a conversation where there are more reasons to believe in this team than ever in some ways…and a question that waits to emerge if shots aren’t falling early in the contest. What will this team do when it’s cold? And how hot does the opposition need to be to overcome it? We know the Vols can struggle if they can’t create second chances. But they, like every other team in the nation this year, aren’t bulletproof, even with a defense this good.

From a purely college basketball standpoint, it should make for an enjoyably unpredictable finish. From Tennessee’s perspective, the Vols get a test from Auburn tomorrow afternoon, then go to Vanderbilt and get Missouri the following week. And then it ramps up: Alabama, at Kentucky, at Texas A&M, South Carolina, Arkansas, at Auburn. With apologies to the Gamecocks, the rest of that stretch are all Top 40ish KenPom foes.

We’re only at the halfway point in SEC play; plenty of basketball remains, plenty of room for improvement, as we just witnessed last year. This group still has a chance to be in the conversation for the best we’ve ever seen around here. But best will not be bulletproof, even when their defense makes it feel like that sometimes.

As they hit the same speedbumps that even those best Tennessee teams have struggled with, how will the Vols continue to grow?

Bracket Math – February 1

Brackets are coming fast and furious now. And on February 1, at least for the moment, we have consensus between the AP poll, the Bracket Matrix, and Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology.

TeamAPMatrixTRankKenPom
Purdue1115
Tennessee2431
Houston3322
Alabama4244

Only UCLA, at number three in KenPom, prevents a Top 4 consensus in polls, brackets, and advanced stats. But overall, these four teams represent the top tier of college basketball, in an order of your choosing.

Recent history will continue to show that number one seeds average 4.5 losses on Selection Sunday, two seeds 6.25 losses. Much of the bracket conversation this year will be figuring out what to do with the Big 12, with six teams on the top four lines in yesterday’s Bracket Matrix. That group will continue to cannibalize itself, making it more difficult for any one of them to rise to a number one seed.

Meanwhile, Houston stands alone in the American: the next-best team in KenPom is Memphis, 35 spots behind. It’s a somewhat similar story in the Big Ten, where the second best team is, you guessed it, Rutgers. They’re 17th in KenPom, a dozen spots back of Purdue. And in the SEC, you have to drop 16 spots after the Vols and Tide to get to Arkansas, another 10 to find Auburn after that.

So in simple raw losses, these four teams appear to have a clear advantage. Keep an eye on Virginia too; I’m not used to thinking of the ACC as being bad in basketball, but that league is sixth in KenPom’s conference ratings, and the Hoos (13th) are 16 spots ahead of Duke.

As the plot thickens in the race to the top, here are the Top 16 (+1) teams in contention. The Bracket Matrix and Torvik’s TRank agree on 15 of these teams, with Gonzaga and (especially) UConn being the outliers. We’ll get a closer view when the NCAA releases its own Top 16; that usually comes mid-February. We also learned last year not to put too much stock in that for one’s ultimate fate on Selection Sunday.

But this year, the Vols can make much more of their own fate. Here’s how they currently compare to the rest of the chase in projected losses (via KenPom) on February 1:

TeamCurrent LsProj. LsMatrixTorvik TRank
Purdue1411
Houston2311
Tennessee3511
Alabama3511
Arizona3522
Kansas4822
Texas4822
UCLA4623
Baylor61033
Virginia3534
Kansas State4834
Iowa State61034
Marquette5743
TCU5943
Xavier5844
Gonzaga4645
UConn6852