Author Archives: Will Shelton

The best blueprint to beat Tennessee was fairly straightforward: get to the free throw line. The only teams to do it – Kansas (34), Kentucky (33), and LSU (31) – all got to the stripe at least 30 times, and all shot at least 15 more free throws than the Vols. Getting to the line slows Tennessee’s transition game, strains a fairly thin rotation, and makes UT’s elite offense merely very good.

Kentucky didn’t get 30 today, but they got 29. Tennessee was again on the wrong side of the disparity at -15. The Vols like jump shots (and are very good at them) and as a result won’t always shoot as many free throws, but when a team can defend the strength of Grant Williams inside without a ton of help, it can make Tennessee’s offense one-dimensional.

No matter what you thought of the officiating, Kentucky significantly outpaced the Vols at the stripe.

They lost by 19.

To be clear, Grant Williams and Jordan Bone were outstanding. Williams has never been so good against Kentucky, Bone never at all. And when one guard was on fire, the other fanned the flames: six assists from Lamonte Turner three days after he was the primary back court scorer? This team is so unselfish.

These Vols are obviously alive and well in the “best season ever” conversation. But it was going to be highly unfortunate to have that conversation without a win against Kentucky. You can check that box: that’s now 4-0 for Rick Barnes against Kentucky in Knoxville, where the Vols have won 8 of 12. And since Barnes’ arrival, Tennessee is now 5-4 against the Cats, none more satisfying than a 19-point beat down of a top five Calipari squad.

Tennessee beat Kentucky today because Williams and Bone were excellent. But the Vols routed the Cats, in spite of the -15 free throw differential, because of their defense.

Kentucky made 14 shots. Fourteen. Their previous season low was 20 against Cuonzo’s defense. The last time they made so few shots was against South Carolina five years ago.

Several of those 14 shots were of the tip-your-cap variety, some combination of great ball movement and a tough shot dropping. But far more often than not, Tennessee’s defense was everywhere. It was noticeable to the eye on every possession: more pressure on guards, better help on shooters, better everything. And not just better, but championship level good.

In Lexington, Kentucky shot 54.7%, the highest percentage the Vols have allowed all year. In Knoxville, Kentucky shot 31.8%, the lowest percentage the Vols have allowed in SEC play. In Lexington, Kentucky had 10 turnovers. In Knoxville, it was 17.

Lexington was the exception – the wake-up call, the face-punch, whatever you like – where Tennessee played its worst game of the year on so many levels. If the Vols want to win a national championship, today’s defense has to be the rule.

The Vols are now back on the edge of the Top 30 in defensive efficiency, swiftly closing in on the Top 20 mark almost every champion hits. They will immediately get more chances to shine: Mississippi State is 16th in offensive efficiency, Auburn 12th. To win the SEC, to earn a one seed, and to advance deep into March, the Vols need today’s defense. Their offense is good enough to have a chance to win everywhere that isn’t Rupp. But with today’s defense, the team that beat them in Rupp took an even bigger beating in Knoxville. The Vols were already a contender. If today’s defense becomes the rule and not the exception, it can make them a champion.

Welcome to March.

Ric Flair turned 70 this week (woo). So yes, to be the man, you’ve gotta beat the man. And yes, generally speaking, Kentucky gets to be the man in the SEC until someone else takes it from them on a regular basis.

But it’s also true that the Vols are defending SEC Champions, 3-0 against the Cats in Knoxville under Rick Barnes, and 7-4 in the last 11 meetings at Thompson-Boling.

LSU is certainly still alive in the conference race; they’ll have to earn it in Tuscaloosa and Gainesville down the stretch. But Tennessee and Kentucky are playing for something more. Only one can earn a one seed. After what happened in Lexington, and because the Cats are the Cats, Tennessee must go through Kentucky. But after what has happened on a regular basis for more than a decade in this building, Kentucky must go through Knoxville.

No game will impact Tennessee’s fate in the bracket more than this one.

So much of Tennessee’s resume is in the fall of 2018. It’s not just Gonzaga on December 9; in KenPom, Tennessee’s second-best win is Louisville on November 21. Its overtime loss to Kansas was two days later.

KenPom still loves Mississippi State (20th) and Auburn (16th), Tennessee’s opponents next week. But ye olde Bracket Matrix, not so much: the Bulldogs are a six seed, the Tigers an eight. Those are wins to shore up an argument for a number one seed. But to have the argument at all, the Vols have to beat Kentucky.

Gonzaga is atop the NET ratings, and unless Pacific (#220 KenPom) or St. Mary’s (#34, but lost 94-46 when last they met) want to do something about it, the Bulldogs should be a lock for the one seed in Anaheim. Gonzaga might have the best offense of the century in college basketball, but still can’t overtake Virginia in KenPom. The Cavaliers, whose only crime is losing to Duke by two in Durham and by 13 threes in Charlottesville, finishes with Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Louisville. They’re a one seed.

And then, over the next nine days, you’ve got Kentucky at Tennessee, Duke at North Carolina, and Michigan at Michigan State.

If the Tar Heels – 23-5 with every loss to a Top 30 team – sweep the Blue Devils, you’ll have to consider putting them on the top line. If Duke wins, with or without Zion, it’ll only confirm everyone’s suspicion that they are, in fact, the highest ceiling in the bracket. One of those teams is a one seed.

How will the committee view the Big Ten challengers from Michigan and Michigan State? NET is not their ally, with the Spartans sixth and the Wolverines ninth. I think the Kentucky/Tennessee winner will have a more compelling case atop the bracket.

Somebody is going to Kansas City unwillingly, of course. If you pencil in Gonzaga in Anaheim and Virginia in Washington, is it as simple as the winner of Duke/North Carolina and the winner of Tennessee/Kentucky, with the committee’s choice going to Louisville?

Here’s the other thing: no teams from the same conference can be the 1 and 2 seed in the same region. If Duke and UVA are ones in Washington and Louisville, North Carolina is likely going to Kansas City. If you’re the Vols, would you rather:

• Be the one seed in Kansas City with North Carolina at #2
• Be the two seed in Louisville with Duke or Virginia at #1

Driving distance is nice, but that’s an easy call for me. If we’re going to see Duke or Virginia, I’d like it to be in Minneapolis, not trying to get there.

I’m sure something crazy will happen between now and Selection Sunday to blow all this up. But if Tennessee wants to be in the conversation at all, it has to beat Kentucky.

Learn, Don’t Burn

That feeling of, “Man, we didn’t play well and we’re only down six at halftime, and we’re still the number one team in the country,” from Rupp Arena feels like a while ago, though ’twas only 13 nights earlier. Here’s the worst-of-the-year list from that game, revisited:

• The Vols had 11 assists at Kentucky, which was immediately “topped” with only 10 in Baton Rouge
• The Vols blocked one (1) shot, a season low. Kentucky blocked six, a season high allowed.
• Kentucky shot 54.7%
• The Cats had 33 free throw attempts, joining Kansas (34) and LSU (31) as the only teams to get 30+ this year and, of course, beat the Vols

And here’s what’s still true for our friends from the Bluegrass:

• When Kentucky shoots at least 28% from three, the Cats are 21-0. When they don’t, they’re 3-4.
• When opponents shoot at least 21 free throws, the Cats are 0-3. When they don’t, they’re 24-1.

For all of these reasons, and the general tone of being punched in the face in Lexington, this will be a toughness win. Is Tennessee tough enough to be the aggressor against the Cats this time? Can the Vols run their offense, which all season has involved great ball movement with paint touches, against Kentucky’s size and athleticism? Can the Vols be mentally tough enough to not allow a team to shoot above its average from three?

The ceiling this team earned in December will now be tested, as it should be, in March. Anything can happen in the NCAA Tournament. But if the Vols want to get there via an SEC title and a one seed? Kentucky must go through Knoxville. Tennessee must go through Kentucky. Wouldn’t have it any other way.

Saturday, 2:00 PM, CBS. Go Vols.

Tremont Waters did not play with an illness. Tennessee held Naz Reid to a single point – one overtime free throw – and 0-for-9 from the floor. The Vols also were even with LSU on the offensive glass at 13 each, though the Tigers only had 11 until back-to-back offensive rebounds led to the tying bucket in the final seconds of overtime. The Vols held LSU to 38.5% from the floor, their fourth-worst performance of the season.

But the Tigers got to the line 31 times, hitting 24 of them. Tennessee went just 12-of-16. It was enough to keep things close throughout, and when the Vols missed opportunities to win at the end of regulation and the end of overtime, one more whistle with 0.6 seconds left as Grant Williams and Ja’vonte Smart collided gave the Tigers two more free throws and the win.

Jordan Bone had bad luck at the end of regulation, slipping and falling on the run in the final seconds. Lamonte Turner took a bad shot with too much time left on the clock at the end of overtime…but, to a degree, if you’re going to live with Lamonte Turner as the Vols did at Rupp Arena last year, sometimes you’re also going to have to die with him.

The refs were the story for their constant use of lengthy video replay to confirm calls that seemed obvious. But the fouls are the real truth of this loss, an all-too-common thread in Tennessee’s defeats:

• Kansas: KU 22-of-34 (64.7%), UT 12-of-17 (70.6%)
• Kentucky: UK 23-of-33 (69.7%), UT 14-of-18 (77.8%)
• LSU: LSU 24-of-31 (77.4%), UT 12-of-16 (75%)

Those three represent the only times this season the Vols sent the opposition to the line 30+ times, but two of them included overtime. The more jarring stat is the difference: Kansas +17 attempts, Kentucky +16, LSU +15.

Tennessee still has the nation’s second-best offense in KenPom after this one. It may very well be that the best way to stop Tennessee’s offense is to get to the line, prevent transition, and get a shorter rotation in foul trouble.

All that said…Tennessee is 24-3 with losses to Top 15 teams, two in overtime. But if you’re looking for a blueprint to give yourself a chance to beat the Vols in March? To me, it’s a convincing one.

Smart had 29 points, but shot only 9-of-22 from the floor. Some of his finishes you have to tip your hat to. The bigger problem was his ability to penetrate at will, which most often got him fouled (9-of-10 at the line) or created better chances for offensive rebounds even when he missed.

Thankfully the Vols have an extra day before going to Oxford, because Grant Williams played 40 minutes, Schofield and Turner 39. Tennessee did not use Jalen Johnson today and put Derrick Walker on the floor for only three minutes. Both teams looked exhausted down the stretch; the Vols had their chances and didn’t take advantage, and LSU did on that last whistle.

It’s tough to judge just how well Tennessee defended LSU without Waters, but overall defense (now 40th in KenPom) continues to need improvement to get to a championship level. But unless the Vols figure out how to defend without fouling against teams with penetrating guards and bigs who can clean it up behind them, they’re going to be in for more of a fight than we bargained for if they catch a bad match-up in the tournament.

Tennessee, Kentucky, and LSU will now be tied at 12-2 atop the league standings. Duke’s loss and Zion Williamson’s injury this week should separate Virginia and Gonzaga atop the bracket. The Vols can still get back to the front of the line in the league and for a one seed by beating Kentucky next Saturday. But first they’ll go to Ole Miss to face another NCAA-bound team.

Nothing is easy from here. Keep getting better.

Here’s the best way I know to describe what’s no longer on the horizon, but finally here:

Tennessee (24-2, 12-1) has played eight games against KenPom’s Tier A, representing a Top 50 opponent when adjusting for location. Half of those came in the non-conference (Louisville, Kansas, Gonzaga, Memphis). Both games against the Gators are now Tier A after Florida’s win at LSU, as were the trips to South Carolina and, of course, Kentucky. That’s eight of Tennessee’s 26 games.

The Vols are about to play five Tier A opponents in a row.

Tennessee has played seven games against teams currently in the Bracket Matrix. Three of those came against Alabama and Florida, currently two of the last four in.

The Vols are about to play five teams seeded eight or better in a row.

Of Tennessee’s 12 SEC wins, 10 came by at least 11 points. Adjusting for location, KenPom projects the Vols to beat LSU by one, Ole Miss by four, Kentucky by three, Mississippi State by nine, and lose to Auburn by one.

Everything is different from here on out. Every night will be a challenge, every win a good one by any margin. The next five games and the SEC Tournament are the dress rehearsal for the NCAA Tournament, and the Vols are still fighting for one of its top seeds.

A year unlike any we’ve seen so far now faces its toughest test. Let’s see what Tennessee has left to give.

DaCoachO Doesn’t Care For DaNoonTipoff

LSU shares the same strength of schedule issues as Tennessee, with a less murderous finish. After tomorrow the Tigers face Texas A&M, then back-to-back road trips to Alabama and Florida, then finish with Vanderbilt. The loss to the Gators midweek helps, and they could easily fall again in Tuscaloosa or Gainesville…but you want to stay ahead of this team in the standings, given what Tennessee has left.

Their road to 11-2 in conference play is paved with points: in 10 of their 13 contests, LSU has scored at least 80 points, and cracked 90 three times. The Tigers also beat Kentucky with just 73 points. The footrace works both ways: LSU has three overtime wins in league play, plus the OT loss to Florida. They also fell to Arkansas in an absolutely bananas game 90-89.

So tomorrow they’ll face the only SEC offense better than their own: the Tigers are 11th nationally in offensive efficiency, but the Vols still trail only Gonzaga in that department. The Zags have an offensive rating of 127.9, topped only in the KenPom era by the 2015 Wisconsin team that beat Kentucky.

The Tigers get it from a David-and-Goliath combo of 5’11” Tremont Waters and 6’10” freshman Naz Reid. Waters puts in 15.7 points and 5.9 assists per game; he’s also seventh nationally at creating steals. Reid gets 13.8 points and 6.6 rebounds per game, and is a sneaky good three point shooter (38.1%). LSU has other double-digit scorers in guards Skylar Mays (an 86% free throw shooter) and Ja’vonte Smart, but a huge percentage of their offense runs through Waters and Reid.

LSU is going to run, and they’re going to attack the rim and the offensive glass. They lead the SEC in both offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate. And when it goes the other way, they’re going to attack the ball: the Tigers are fourth nationally at creating steals.

But if you can get past all the havoc – which is considerable – their defense is vulnerable. The Tigers are sixth in the SEC in defensive efficiency, but dead last (and 277th nationally) in two-point field goal percentage allowed. And the Vols have been excellent from inside the arc, shooting 57.1% on the year: sixth nationally, best in the SEC.

The win over Vanderbilt on Tuesday was a Cuonzo Martin special: we didn’t make shots, but everything else was there. Tennessee’s defensive efficiency went from the mid-50’s to the low-40’s, a great sign for this team’s championship potential. Against a team as good as LSU, the Vols will need to make more shots, of course. But the defensive performance against the Commodores made me feel better about Tennessee’s ceiling.

It’s easy to oversimplify this game and say Tennessee needs Jordan Bone to outplay Tremont Waters, and Grant Williams to outplay Naz Reid. But after Tennessee had its worst game of the season on so many levels at Kentucky, the Vols can be more than just the same team from Lexington that happens to make more shots. Against a team that goes so hard to the offensive glass, we’ll see what Tennessee learned in the toughness department. But it’s not just an intangible, as three of LSU’s five losses came when teams beat them at their own game: Florida State had 19 offensive rebounds, Houston 17, and the Gators 14, the three highest totals the Tigers have allowed all year.

The Kentucky game was bigger on a national level, but for the whole of the season this is one of the most important games left. For Tennessee to remain in control of its own destiny in the chase for a number one seed, this is a big one to get.

High noon, ESPN. Go Vols.

With 111 entries, all of them updated since the Kentucky game, the Bracket Matrix still has Tennessee as a one seed. And it’s fairly comfortable: the Vols are the last one seed with an average seed of 1.22, and Kentucky is the first two seed with an average of 1.88. Say what you want about the AP poll, where the Vols dropped from first to fifth, but the vast majority of bracketologists still like Tennessee on the top line.

It will be interesting to see what the committee ultimately does with Nevada and Houston, the only one-loss teams left in college basketball. But the four favorites atop the bracket – Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga, and Tennessee – are the only two-loss teams left standing.

Tennessee’s biggest problem in perception isn’t that it lost at Kentucky. It’s that it lost by 17 in a game it trailed by 24. But take heart, friends: in 2017 North Carolina lost at Indiana by nine, at Georgia Tech by 12, at Miami by 15, at Duke by eight, at Virginia by 10, and to Duke again in the ACC Tournament by 10…and won the national championship. In 2016 Villanova lost to Oklahoma by 23 in December. In 2015 Duke lost at home to Miami by 16. You get the idea. Nothing is off the table.

But Tennessee’s biggest problem in reality is a defense now sitting at 52nd in efficiency when, again, only seven-seed UConn in 2014 won the national championship without an offense and defense in the top 20 nationally.

The Vols got punched in the face, and so far have said all the right things in the aftermath. It’ll be tough to judge against Vanderbilt, unless the Commodores are feeling frisky again. But Vandy is 0-12 in the league: a beat down should be the expectation, but it’s hard to prove anything against a winless foe. But beyond them, we all know what’s coming: each of Tennessee’s last five games will be against what should be a team with a favorable first-round match-up in the NCAA Tournament. It’s basically playing five second-round-or-better opponents in a row.

The chase for the league title is now especially interesting with the Vols and LSU at 11-1, Kentucky at 10-2. Here’s what everyone has left:

• Tennessee: Vanderbilt, at LSU, at Ole Miss, Kentucky, Mississippi State, at Auburn
• LSU: Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M, at Alabama, at Florida, Vanderbilt
• Kentucky: at Missouri, Auburn, Arkansas, at Tennessee, at Ole Miss, Florida

KenPom projects madness with 4-2 finishes for each team. Obviously, you don’t want to get behind LSU with that finale against Vanderbilt. If Duke, Virginia, and Gonzaga keep doing their things, talk of the final one seed coming down between Kentucky and Tennessee isn’t far-fetched at all.

Michigan could get in the way there, but if not, the committee’s choice between the Vols and Cats would go to Kansas City. The more challenging portion is an increased likelihood of the loser going to Louisville (yay!) as the two seed, but having to deal with Duke or Virginia in the Elite Eight (boo!). All those conversations about, “If we lose to Duke, so be it,” sound a lot better when you’re picturing that loss in the Final Four instead of the Elite Eight.

But all of that is miles ahead. We’ve seen enough to know what Tennessee is capable of in toughness and defense. Plenty of previous champions have been punched in the face. But if the Vols don’t do something good with the taste in their mouths, they won’t join them, and will be in danger of losing a favorable path to come closer than this program has before.

Keep getting better.

The Vols will have to deal with some talk of the latter after this one. Its ultimate destiny will depend on how much it invests in the former.

The first half was pure violence, Kentucky six points ahead behind the work of P.J. Washington inside and Keldon Johnson outside. The Vols were out of their natural element, but still very much alive behind the work of Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and Jordan Bone.

The second half was the pendulum swing hard in officiating. But more than anything, Kentucky got a ton from its supporting cast: Reid Travis finished with 11 points and 10 free throw attempts, and Tyler Herro had 15 points and 13 rebounds. Meanwhile Lamonte Turner was 2-of-11, Jordan Bowden 1-of-7, and Kyle Alexander fouled out with the quickness.

Kentucky’s run to open the second half was shocking, pushing a six-point lead to 20 by the first media timeout. The Vols had only nine turnovers on the night, but three of them were in that four-minute span. Tennessee would get no closer than 11 from there.

We can go on with the words, but I’m not sure I have any to capture how physical this game was, and how often Tennessee was on the wrong end of it. Some of those words can go to the referees, but two things are clear: Kentucky was the aggressor, and the Vols have to be better than a tough whistle if they’re trying to win the national championship.

In context:

• Tennessee shot 40.7% from the floor, third lowest of the season
• The Vols took (settled for?) 25 threes, third most of the season
• Eleven assists is the lowest total of the year
• Kentucky shot 54.7%, the highest percentage the Vols have allowed this year
• Kentucky blocked six shots, the most the Vols have allowed this year

In fairness, I’d imagine it’s tough to run through the sort of schedule Tennessee has faced since Gonzaga – only two games (Florida) against teams in the KenPom Top 50 – and then turn it around to Rupp Arena. And I assume it’s still good news, but after Vanderbilt on Tuesday the Vols will play five consecutive KenPom Top 40 teams, including Kentucky again in two weeks.

But, at least on this night, concerns about Tennessee’s defense not being at a championship level were validated, and Kentucky’s defense disrupted much of what Tennessee’s offense loves to do. And the Cats were simply the tougher team, and deserved victory.

I don’t think Tennessee was exposed. We’ve seen too much from this team over two years to believe they are tougher and can defend better than what we saw tonight. Perhaps instead this was simply an education in what it takes to win against an opponent of this caliber in the most hostile environment we’ll face, especially after not needing those levels since December 9.

Tennessee has to keep getting better. And to beat Kentucky, or a team like that deep in the tournament, they have to be tougher.

Plenty of opportunity knocks between now and then.

Not only is this the highest-ranked match-up between the Vols and Cats in their 224-game history, it’s also one of just three top five match-ups in the history of Tennessee basketball. No hyperbole necessary for this one: the facts are good enough.

Overconfident Tennessee Teams Go to Rupp Arena to Die

Last year the Vols earned their third win in Rupp since 1980, joining 1999 and 2006. The last two times the Vols won in Lexington, really good things were on the way for the program. But each time those good things were also humbled in their return to Rupp:

• In 2000 the Vols went to Rupp at 18-2 (6-1), ranked sixth in the nation. Kentucky was 14th. The Cats won by 13.
• In 2001 the Vols went to Rupp at 16-1 (3-0), ranked fourth. Kentucky was unranked. The Cats won by 10.
• In 2008 the Vols went to Rupp at 16-1 (3-0), ranked third. Kentucky was unranked. The Cats won by six.

History says you shouldn’t assume when Tennessee is the higher-ranked team, especially when the Cats are also top five material. This wouldn’t be the first Vol squad with championship aspirations to take a step back in Lexington.

What would it look like to take a step forward?

The Headlines

The thing Tennessee is very best at is still shot-blocking: third nationally in fewest blocks allowed by percentage, sixth in shot blocking on the other end of the floor. It’s an advantage we’re more accustomed to a team like Kentucky having. So what will that look like when it’s actually the Cats on the other end of the floor?

Kentucky eats eight percent of its shots, 84th nationally. That’s better than last year, but still worse than their numbers from 2014-17. Those teams all had an elite interior presence: Willie Cauley-Stein, Karl-Anthony Towns, Marcus Lee, and Bam Adebayo. P.J. Washington and Reid Travis are strong on the offensive glass – more on that in a second – but not quite the interior presence of their predecessors.

A note here on the way Rick Barnes got around some of that elite size by attacking it with quicker bigs:

• 2016 Knoxville: Armani Moore 18 points, 13 rebounds
• 2016 Lexington: Armani Moore 21 points, 11 rebounds
• 2017 Knoxville: Admiral Schofield 15 points, 7 rebounds off the bench
• 2017 Lexington: Admiral Schofield 17 points, 7 rebounds off the bench
• 2018 Knoxville: Admiral Schofield 20 points, 9 rebounds
• 2018 Lexington: Admiral Schofield 12 points, 6 rebounds
• 2018 SEC Tournament: Admiral Schofield 22 points, 10 rebounds

Moore and Schofield are averaging 17.8 points and 9 rebounds against Kentucky. Schofield has become such a threat from the arc (41.1%), I’m curious to see how it will affect this part of Tennessee’s game plan.

But inside the arc, one huge factor for this game: how will it be officiated? Tennessee hasn’t been great at getting to the free throw line in league play (11th in free throw rate), but it’s still a huge part of Grant Williams’ game. Can the Vols be strong inside and get #2 to the free throw line at Rupp? What happens if they can’t? What happens if Tennessee finds itself in foul trouble?

A big magic number for beating Kentucky: teams are 3-0 when attempting more than 20 free throws against the Cats, but only Alabama won when attempting less (17). Duke got there 29 times, Seton Hall 26 (with overtime), LSU 22.

Tennessee always had the horses to score inside, but they’ve improved as a jump-shooting team in ways we didn’t count on. The Vols use great ball movement to essentially eliminate bad shots from their offense, and knock down that free throw line jumper like nobody’s business. The Vols shoot 57.7% inside the arc, fifth nationally. Sooner or later it’s not going to fall, and the Vols will need to win with defense. But at Kentucky, I’m not sure that would be enough. The way you typically beat this team is to get to the line. Perhaps when you’re number one, you beat teams however you like…but we haven’t won at Rupp Arena nearly enough for me to believe in new rules just yet.

Another question Rick Barnes will have to answer: does Tennessee send more bodies to keep Kentucky off the offensive glass, or will the Vols still try to get out and go? Tennessee plays way faster than Kentucky, but its success isn’t directly tied to keeping the other team off the offensive glass. The fewest offensive rebounds Tennessee has allowed this year is five. One was in the 46-point beat-down of Georgia. But the other was in the overtime win at Vanderbilt.

Then there’s the three-point shooting. The Vols are allowing 36.8% from the arc in league play, next-to-last in the SEC. It’s an amazing stat considering the Vols are 11-0. Kentucky is shooting 35.7% in league play, fifth-best. But here’s a stat that’s almost identical to last year for the Cats:

• 2018: 24-3 when shooting at least 29% from three, 2-8 when not
• 2019: 17-0 when shooting at least 28% from three, 3-4 when not

The Vols were one of those three losses last year (7-of-19, 36.8% in Knoxville), but the Cats cleaned it up to 7-of-16 (43.8%) in their SEC Tournament win. Kentucky doesn’t take enough threes to say they rely on them, but they also don’t need to make very many to push their abundance of talent over the edge.

So, as you’d imagine, the Vols need to defend the three better, keep Kentucky from dominating the offensive glass, and get a whistle conducive to being the more dominant team at the rim (a position we’re especially not used to in Rupp). Tennessee beat Kentucky once last year by getting to the free throw line (18-of-24 in Knoxville) and once because the Cats went cold from three (3-of-14 in Lexington). The Vols can survive one of those numbers going against them, but still probably not both.

There’s a ton of basketball left to be played here. Tennessee still needs help to win the argument vs Duke for the number one overall seed. But beyond that? I don’t think there’s anything, from the other one seeds to the SEC Championship, where Tennessee still won’t control its own destiny even with a loss here. There’s a version of Duke that just beats everybody. But aside from that, I’m not sure Tennessee will face a stiffer challenge than trying to beat this Kentucky team in Lexington. We’re already number one, and with Kentucky also in the top five you shouldn’t have to adjust expectations too much regardless of outcome. So for at least one night, the biggest prize to be won might be the sort of exclamation point in this rivalry I’m not sure I’ve ever seen from the Vols. Tennessee plays Kentucky again in two weeks. But if the Vols go to 5-3 against the Cats under Barnes, 3-1 in the last four, and two straight in Rupp Arena? While ranked number one? You’re talking about, in the moment, a level of separation between Tennessee and Kentucky that hasn’t existed in my lifetime.

Might as well add it to the list.

We all know where this is headed on Saturday. But let’s take one more minute to celebrate what these guys have done.

Tennessee, as you know, is now 23-1 (11-0). Nineteen wins in a row, nine SEC wins by double digits. But the majority of these players are also now 37-5 in their last 42 games.

Last time Tennessee beat South Carolina without Jordan Bowden. Tonight they did it with Grant Williams as the sixth-leading scorer. On the Vols, not in the game. The Vols actually lost the second half scoring 37-36, and still never let South Carolina get it to single digits.

Two of those five losses in the last 42 games – at Alabama and at Georgia last year – the Vols have seemingly eliminated from the realm of possibility. No bubble-or-worse squad has beaten Tennessee, and most haven’t come particularly close. Two of those five are to Kansas and Kentucky. And the other is where all of this is ultimately going: Loyola-Chicago, who still should get credit for making the Final Four, but also beat the Vols on a bad bounce with no Kyle Alexander. Injury can still strike – we all said a few words or held our breath when Jordan Bone went down tonight – but the depth of this team suggests no one absence is taking Tennessee out in the early rounds this time.

That’s the goal at the top of the bracket: be good enough to eliminate the bad bounce possibility, at least until the Elite Eight. And in the regular season, plus-or-minus two games when the Vols could’ve gone to number one, then ultimately did and almost stumbled immediately? The Vols are simply a machine. The opposition can even seem like they’re playing well – alarmingly so from the three point line at times, like the first half tonight – and oops, the Vols are still up 10. The best punch from teams with that chance usually gives up a transition bucket on the other end and is back down double digits a few possessions later.

There will be plenty of words to spill about Rupp Arena. That’s coming, then Vanderbilt, then five straight games against tournament opponents. This is all about to level up.

But what we’ve seen through the first 11 games of league play…is it even fair to call it a grind? For the opposition, definitely. For Tennessee, it’s just business. And it’s better than ever, longer than ever.

None of us have any experience with a 22-1 (10-0) basketball team outside our imagination. But here’s what we didn’t imagine about life at 10-0: the Vols aren’t even close to locking up the SEC.

It’s one part having both dates with Kentucky in the final seven games of the regular season, and one part LSU. Those two play tonight (7:00 PM ET, ESPN) in Lexington, the winner going to 10-1, the loser 9-2. It’s also a great lead-in to Duke at Louisville (9:00 PM), which could dramatically improve Tennessee’s chance at the number one overall seed if the Cardinals can join Gonzaga as teams who beat Duke but lost to the Vols.

Here’s life in the ACC: five teams between 8-3 and 9-1, six teams between 3-8 and 2-9. The gap is even more pronounced at the poles in the SEC: while Tennessee is 10-0 and the Cats & Tigers are 9-1, Missouri and Texas A&M are 2-8, Georgia 1-9, Vanderbilt 0-10. A&M’s one-point win over Alabama is the only victory from that four-team bottom tier that didn’t come against one of the other three.

So you can pencil in those four on Wednesday, and the Vols, Cats, Tigers, and a player to be named later for Friday in the SEC Tournament. Right now that fourth Friday team wouldn’t be one of the seven SEC schools in the Bracket Matrix, but Tennessee’s Wednesday opponent: South Carolina is 7-3 in the SEC, undefeated against everyone except, you guessed it: Tennessee, Kentucky, and LSU. The Vols turned a two-point game with 13 minutes left into a 22-point win without Jordan Bowden in Columbia despite 28 points from Chris Silva; I know we’re all looking to Saturday, but Carolina still deserves a glance.

The Vols can’t afford a stumble in the chase at the top of the bracket, but there’s also still a realistic scenario where Tennessee finishes third in the SEC. We’re absolutely trying to do more than win the league this year. But we also absolutely haven’t won the league enough – only thrice after 1982, including last year – to pretend it’s not a meaningful thing.

There’s plenty of excitement left to come in this week. But beating South Carolina is more than sidestepping a trap game; with Tennessee, LSU, and Kentucky all still in control of their own SEC destiny coming into tonight, every win counts.

The Vols opened SEC play with a 46-point win over Georgia (that one still isn’t normal, no matter what Tom Crean says about his players). Things got tight in consecutive games around Tennessee’s number one ranking: a three-point win over Alabama, and a five-point overtime win at Vanderbilt.

Tennessee’s other seven SEC wins (plus West Virginia):

• +24 at Missouri
• +11 at Florida
• +19 vs Arkansas
• +17 vs West Virginia
• +22 at South Carolina
• +17 at Texas A&M
• +12 vs Missouri
• +12 vs Florida

To be sure, things are about to level up for the Vols. That’s what we expected when league play began, and it hasn’t wavered in the least. The trip to Lexington will be an event by itself, book-ended by a last pair of trap games against South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Then it’s five straight against NCAA Tournament teams, three on the road, four in the KenPom Top 25.

All that’s coming, and with it a significantly higher probability of a loss or two. So let’s take a moment to appreciate what’s already happened on a now 18-game winning streak.

The Florida Gators, a program with eight Elite Eight appearances this century, came into Knoxville in desperate need of a win like this one for their bubble argument. And, as the Vols have done so many times to Florida this century, Tennessee simply turned them away.

Tennessee would push the lead to double digits, then Florida would work it back to two possessions. And then Tennessee, as it has done so many times this year, hit the kind of run we’re now comfortable saying a number one team makes: turning what feels like into a close game into, “Wait, we’re up 13,” in a matter of moments.

The Gators have been allergic to PB&J, and that was true again today: 30 points on 13-of-22 from the floor combined, and that with only four total free throw attempts for Williams and Schofield. The new normal is four guys in double figures: Bowden had 13, and Bone had 10 despite:

Rick Barnes said Jordan Bone was feeling that ankle "tweak" during the second half.

— @GrantRamey (@GrantRamey) February 9, 2019

We’ve seen how valuable Bone’s speed is this season; here’s hoping he’s 100% in Rupp Arena.

Also, gross:

#Vols coach Rick Barnes: They had to go in there and push that bone (in his face) back out, but he seems OK. They’re making the mask today, and he should be OK to play Wednesday.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) February 9, 2019

If that quote was about me instead of Yves Pons, it would read, “They had to go in there and push that bone back out, and he’s out for the rest of his life.”

The Vols were the number two overall seed according to the selection committee today. They’re 10-0 in the SEC, but Kentucky and LSU are 9-1 (and play each other Tuesday in Lexington). Tennessee is 22-1.

The most important days are still ahead, and there’s plenty left to learn. But the Vols have been dominating the SEC’s middle and lower tiers with incredible regularity. It’s not an accomplishment that’s going to mean anything at the end of the year, but it sure is fun to watch now.

On to the Gamecocks, Wednesday night in Knoxville.