Author Archives: Will Shelton

As the Vols entered the NCAA Tournament last year, there was no blueprint. SEC Champions at 25-8 (13-5) and a No. 3 seed, Tennessee was capable of winning games in a variety of ways. Turns out we didn’t have the drawings for Kyle Alexander’s absence and divine intervention on a Loyola-Chicago bounce. You just never know in March. But that team had as good of a chance to advance in the NCAA Tournament as any in Tennessee’s history.

And, as we’ve known for months now, this year’s team is more than just better than last year.

March works both ways. The only Tennessee team to make the Elite Eight in 2010 lost five times in the regular season by double digits, then by 29 to Kentucky in the SEC Tournament. They survived No. 11 seed San Diego State in round one, and took advantage of an upset in thrashing No. 14 Ohio in round two. And then they played one of the finest games in school history in beating No. 2 Ohio State, and were seconds away from the Final Four against No. 5 Michigan State.

Sometimes you get that path to the promised land: 11, 14, two, and five. Or the one that was in front of the Vols last season: 14, 11, then what would have been seven and nine in Atlanta.

Sometimes you get chalk. The next-closest Tennessee team to the promised land was 2007, who survived a knock-down, drag-out No. 4 vs No. 5 game with Virginia in the second round, then had a 20-point lead on No. 1 Ohio State before giving it away at the free throw line.

And sometimes you get 2014: millimeters away from firing the coach, then winning in overtime in the First Four, then beat downs of No. 6 UMass and another thrashing of another Cinderella in No. 14 Mercer in round two. And then falling to No. 2 Michigan in the Sweet 16 on a hotly disputed charge call.

When we throw around, “The best in school history,” how do we define it? In recent years, was it 2008? Ranked number one after another of the finest games in school history at Memphis, outright SEC Champions, but vanquished by 19 points in a bad match-up in the Sweet 16? Is it Pearl’s first team, easily one of the most memorable seasons in school history, who fought their way to a No. 2 seed only to fall in round two?

Seasons are always heavily influenced by where they end in March, but as all of them end with a loss save the champion, you have to be sure to celebrate appropriately along the way. Last year’s Vols got the nets and the SEC rings at 13-5. This year’s Vols went 15-3 and will come away empty handed on that particular piece of jewelry.

But everything, ultimately, is about giving yourself the best chance to win in the bracket. Not all jewelry is created equal. Build your team to produce its best basketball at the right time, and win enough games to make that path as easy as possible.

We love KenPom for many reasons, but one is its objectivity. So when ranking the best teams in recent history, it looks like this in that metric:

Season	KenPom	Finish
2014	23.69	S16
2018	22.27	R2
2008	22.17	S16
2006	19.44	R2
2010	18.50	E8
2007	18.29	S16

Cuonzo Martin’s last team, play-for-play, rated the best of this era before this season began. It lost a ton of close games (0-6 in games decided by six points or less) and rated 341st in luck in KenPom. But it was also capable of evisceration, as it did to Virginia by 35 and plenty of other teams down the stretch. This team, after all, had more NBA players on it than any in Tennessee’s recent history.

Meanwhile the 2008 Vols – 13-3 in games decided by six points or less – finished fourth in luck in KenPom. The 2010 Vols weren’t far behind at 20th, going 6-1 in games decided by six points or less before falling to Michigan State.

Which season is best or most memorable? Much of that is up to you to decide. You never know in March.

Here’s what we do know: no matter what happens in the SEC Tournament, this Tennessee team will be better positioned to make a run to the Final Four than any I’ve ever seen.

Tennessee’s current KenPom rating is 27.93. That would make them a 4-6 point favorite over 2008, 2014, and last season; they’d be almost a 10-point favorite over the 2010 Elite Eight squad. And they’re 145th in luck, going 4-3 in games decided by six points or less. As always, the best way to win close games is not to play them. And Tennessee is playing them against the right teams: five of those seven close game opponents are going to the NCAA Tournament, six if Alabama can get in.

This team has some incredible parts. Grant Williams just won SEC Player of the Year back-to-back. Admiral Schofield and Jordan Bone also earned first-or-second team all-conference honors. In the post-Ernie/Bernie era, only three Tennessee teams have placed three players on first-or-second All-SEC teams:

• 1981: Gary Carter, Dale Ellis, Howard Wood
• 2008: Chris Lofton, Tyler Smith, JaJuan Smith
• 2019: Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, Jordan Bone

We have seen incredible individual efforts from these guys. Grant Williams with 43 at Vanderbilt. Admiral Schofield with 30 against Gonzaga. Jordan Bone with 27 against Kentucky. But Tennessee’s best basketball still does not follow any individual blueprint. This goes the other way too: Lamonte Turner certainly struggled from the arc in Tennessee’s losses, but he also went a combined 0-for-7 in Tennessee’s two best performances of the season against Kentucky and Mississippi State, and had a signature performance in one of Tennessee’s best wins at Ole Miss.

We’re well-versed in what gets Tennessee beat: opponents getting to the free throw line far more often than the Vols. What qualifies as Tennessee’s best basketball is, in part, the opposite of this: great defense without putting the other team on the line. What the Vols did against Kentucky and Mississippi State is what will get them through in March.

But the Vols are also more than great individuals on the other end of the floor. The Vols are 24-1 when they have at least 15 assists, 3-3 when they don’t.

For all the strengths of their individuals, Tennessee’s best basketball still comes when the team flows together: a commitment to great defense without fouling, and an offense that flows through good ball movement creating great shots. One fly, we all fly indeed.

All of these things can be true at the same time:

• The Vols were on the wrong end of an unfortunate call in the final minutes of a big game. An Auburn three should have been ruled basket interference.
• There are plenty of other things Tennessee could have done better to win; limiting turnovers (13) and not getting carried away from the arc (28 attempts) were a good place to start today.
• The Vols are a jump-shooting team, and a really good one at that. As a result, they don’t get to the free throw line as much (29.8% free throw rate in league play, 13th in the SEC).
• Vol opponents were whistled for 20+ fouls 10 times this season. All of them came in November-January.

The Vols got a bad call. The Vols did plenty of other things wrong. The Vols don’t get to the line very often because they’re a great jump-shooting team. The Vols don’t get to the line as much as they did earlier this year.

All of it was a factor in Auburn’s 84-80 win. And all of it could be a factor in the games that matter most. And those games are coming soon.

When you’re trying to win the big prize – a position Tennessee is still getting used to – everything that precedes the NCAA Tournament is about producing your best basketball for those three weeks. And the more you win, the easier the path in the bracket.

Tennessee’s best basketball was the last two games: 71-52 over Kentucky, 71-54 over Mississippi State. The defensive end gave it that qualifier. Today, Auburn launched 34 threes and, to their absolute credit, made 13 of them (38.2%). The Vols probably got a little caught up in it, firing 28 of their own. Before we’re too quick to judge that, however, keep in mind that 28 was the second-highest total of the season…behind 29 against Gonzaga. It can work both ways.

It works better for Tennessee playing inside-out; Auburn didn’t have the interior presence of Gonzaga, so it was certainly less wise today. But Tennessee works best overall when it defends at a higher level than we saw today. Part of it was Admiral Schofield’s foul trouble, limiting him to only 25 minutes. But that’s also simply part of who Tennessee is: the Vols play a short rotation, and can be vulnerable when the whistle doesn’t go their way.

So yes, the whistle got weird at LSU and Auburn. That’s half of Tennessee’s losses and two-thirds in SEC play; unless Vanderbilt gets the Holy Spirit tonight, the Vols (and possibly Kentucky) will become the first team to go 15-3 in SEC play and fail to win the title. Some of it is bad luck. Some of it is poor officiating. Some of it is Tennessee needing to be even better.

Much like the loss at Rupp, Tennessee can use this as a learning experience. On the whole, a 27-4 (15-3) season with overtime losses to Kansas and LSU, a four-point loss at Auburn, and falling at Rupp Arena? That’s an excellent year, worthy of the one seed conversation. When it started at 23-1 (11-0) and finished 4-3 – due more than anything to the increased degree of difficulty in the schedule – it feels a little more disappointing.

But the last word of this season is a long way from being written.

If the Vols are out of the No. 1 seed conversation, their biggest loss today is potentially having to face the very best teams (Virginia and full-strength Duke) in the Elite Eight instead of the Final Four. I don’t think the Vols are totally eliminated from the No. 1 seed conversation – what Kentucky and North Carolina do today and next week will matter – but they had to be considered the favorite going into today.

But the biggest picture finds a Tennessee team that just put its best basketball on the floor in Knoxville, then took itself out of it at Auburn before hot three-point shooting and a bad call finished them off. The Vols no longer control their own destiny for the SEC title and a No. 1 seed. But they absolutely control their own destiny for their best basketball showing up in the NCAA Tournament.

Keep getting better.

Since the SEC expanded in 2012-13 and went to an 18-game schedule, here are your champions:

• 2013: Florida wins at 14-4, three others at 12-6
• 2014: Florida goes undefeated at 18-0, two others 12-6
• 2015: Kentucky goes undefeated at 18-0, Arkansas 13-5
• 2016: Texas A&M and Kentucky split at 13-5
• 2017: Kentucky wins at 16-2, Florida 14-4
• 2018: Tennessee and Auburn split at 13-5

We’ve never seen three teams win at least 14 games, which is where things sit right now. If Kentucky beats Florida on Saturday, that’s three teams with at least 15 wins. And if the Vols win at Auburn and LSU beats 0-17 Vanderbilt (which we’ve also never seen on the other end of the spectrum), the league title will be shared at 16-2.

There are plenty of questions about Will Wade at the moment, including whether the LSU administration wants the image of him on a ladder cutting down nets if/when the Tigers beat Vanderbilt Saturday night. As the Vols can only control the Vols, we’ll focus on Auburn and a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. But it’s worth pointing out how amazing a 16-2 run through the SEC would be, even if it ends with an unprecedented tie for the title.

What’s the Simplest Path to a No. 1 Seed?

In Thursday’s Bracket Matrix, Virginia and Duke are unanimous No. 1 seeds in the 90 brackets in the pool; Gonzaga is just behind with an average seed of 1.07. And Tennessee is currently the fourth No. 1 seed with an average seed of 1.38, a good bit ahead of Kentucky (1.81) and North Carolina (1.83).

If Tennessee wins at Auburn and Duke wins at Chapel Hill, that could do it. There are various thoughts on if you want Duke or Carolina to prevail, but if we’re looking for simplicity, that includes giving up on the notion that Tennessee could be seeded higher than both Duke and UNC and back atop the Louisville region. A North Carolina win on Saturday could introduce that possibility, giving both Duke and Carolina five losses to Tennessee’s three. But given Tennessee’s history with the selection committee and the names on the front of the jersey, I’m not sure I like those odds. Could the selection committee put three ACC teams on the top line? Probably not, but when a program with zero Final Fours under its belt is the alternative, it makes me nervous.

In the last three years, the average No. 1 seed has 4.67 losses on Selection Sunday. So a Tennessee team at 28-3 (16-2), if it goes through Auburn, should feel pretty good about its chances heading to the SEC Tournament. But we also have a bit of institutional memory here: in 2008 the Vols went to the SEC Tournament at 28-3 (14-2), lost by a point in the semifinals post-tornado, and were given a No. 2 seed despite being No. 1 in RPI. It’s one of the better what-if’s in recent Tennessee history: that team’s path to the Final Four went through a criminally under-seeded Butler team in the second round, then ran into a match-up nightmare in the Sweet 16 against No. 3 Louisville. Had the Vols earned the final No. 1 seed instead of Kansas (who, to their credit, ultimately won it all), we could have seen Chris Lofton vs Steph Curry in the Elite Eight.

But we’ve seen a 28-3 Tennessee team that spent time at No. 1 in the regular season get denied on Selection Sunday. In this decade, six major conference teams failed to earn a No. 1 seed despite having less than five losses:

• 2012 Missouri (30-4) – lost to No. 15 Norfolk State in Round One
• 2014 Villanova (28-4) – lost to No. 7 UConn in Round Two
• 2015 Virginia (29-3) – lost to No. 7 Michigan State in Round Two
• 2015 Arizona (31-3) – lost to No. 1 Wisconsin in Elite Eight
• 2017 UCLA (29-4) – lost to No. 2 Kentucky in Sweet 16
• 2017 Arizona (30-4) lost to No. 11 Xavier in Sweet 16

So the committee could say, “See, we got it right, none of those teams made the Final Four (and only one made the Elite Eight).” This is a disgruntled list you don’t want to be on, though the last three times it happened to teams from a diminished Pac-12. If the Vols do fall to No. 2 even after a win at Auburn, feeling sorry for yourself is a recipe for disaster.

But the Vols have the Bracket Matrix, NET, and Torvik’s predictive bracketology all on their side at the moment. Nothing is certain, but you can make a really good argument for the Vols as the favorite to earn that final No. 1 seed.

But all of those roads go through Auburn.

On The Plains

Auburn rallied from down 11 at halftime to win at Alabama on Tuesday. I would imagine sharing the floor with their in-state brethren offered some support, but tomorrow will be the first game back at Auburn since tornadoes took 23 lives in the area. It’s also senior day for Bryce Brown; there will be emotions of all kinds in the building.

The Tigers are 21-9 (10-7), but other than a three-point loss at South Carolina, every defeat is to a Top 50 team in KenPom. Their only losses at home are to Kentucky (82-80) and Ole Miss (60-55). The Rebels took the invitation to launch threes and went 13-of-33 (39.4%) while Auburn hit just 5-of-20 (25%).

Austin Wiley missed the last three games with a leg injury; Pearl referred to him as “doubtful, but not out” yesterday. Without him this is a much smaller team. But Chuma Okeke can still bang, and this team beat the Vols in Knoxville last year solely on the strength of offensive rebounds in a stat line that’s still hard to believe: 22 offensive rebounds, 24 defensive rebounds.

Teams that have wanted to play fast with Tennessee have often regretted it (Louisville, Memphis, Georgia, Arkansas, South Carolina, etc.). The Tigers have the best-of-Pearl quality of controlled chaos: third in the league in turnovers allowed, third in creating turnovers. Statistically they aren’t crashing the offensive glass as hard this year, but the memories of last season will linger until the Vols prove otherwise.

But it’s the willingness to shoot and let shoot that’s most striking about this team: in SEC play, almost half of Auburn’s field goal attempts are from three (49.2%). And 43.6% of opponent attempts are from three.

One thing about this: it’s been less about Auburn’s makes than the opponent’s when it comes to wins and losses. When the opposition shoots less than 33.3% from the arc, Auburn is 11-1, its only loss to Duke. When teams hit at least 33.3% from three, Auburn is 10-8.

So, do you take the bait? Only seven teams have taken less than 20 threes against the Tigers this year. The Vols have taken less than 20 threes 15 times this year. Tennessee is 333rd nationally in the percentage of points they get from the arc. It could be a poise game in an emotionally charged environment.

Much is on the line. The Vols and Tigers will go first (Noon, ESPN), with Duke and Carolina at 6:00 PM and LSU hosting Vanderbilt at 8:30 PM. Tennessee has never won back-to-back SEC Championships. I think this team has plenty of history left.

Go Vols.

We’ve said it plenty of times this year: with the exception of seven seed UConn in 2014, every national champion of the KenPom era has had a Top 20 offense and defense (original story from the SB Nation Villanova blog last February). In the last week of the regular season, seven teams hit that criteria: Virginia, Gonzaga, Duke, Michigan State, North Carolina, Michigan, and Kentucky.

The Vols don’t have a Top 20 defense, haven’t for most of the season, and plunged into the 50’s after the loss at Kentucky.

After last night’s 71-54 win over Mississippi State? The defense still isn’t Top 20.

But it is 21st.

It started with a strong defensive performance against Vanderbilt; the offense didn’t sing in a 58-46 win, but the Commodores shot 32.1% from the floor. Still, that was Vandy, winless in SEC play. Then the Vols lost at LSU in overtime; the Tigers were without Tremont Waters, which makes it hard to judge, and though they only shot 38.5% from the floor, they got to the free throw line 700 31 times. Then Ole Miss buried a ton of tough threes, hitting 9-of-23 (39.1%) from the arc in another close game.

The defense was better, but it was tough to tell. But the last two games, against two of the best teams Tennessee has played all year? Kentucky shot 31.8%, their lowest total of the year. Second-lowest: 39.1% against Kansas. Mississippi State shot 33.3%, their second-lowest total of the year (31.1% at Rupp).

Via Sports-Reference, In the first 25 games of the season, the Vols allowed 39.7% from the floor and 33.4% from the arc. In the last five games – four against offenses rating in the Top 35 in KenPom – the Vols have allowed 35.7% from the floor and 31.1% from the arc.

And here’s what’s pushing Tennessee over the top. You know how all year we’ve been saying the Vols traded creating turnovers in 2018 for blocked shots in 2019 (still a thing they’re great at, ninth nationally in shot-blocking percentage and third in shot-blocking percentage allowed)? In the last two games, Kentucky turned it over 16 times with eight Tennessee steals, then Mississippi State gave it away 17 times with a dozen (!) Tennessee steals, a season high.

If there was a switch, apparently Rupp Arena flipped it, and the rematch taped it to the on position. Kentucky was playing without Reid Travis, to be fair, so I know we can’t hang everything on beating a team by 19 that beat us by 17. But Mississippi State is a five seed in the Bracket Matrix…and the Vols obliterated them.

Nevermind any concern about the Vols peaking too soon. This is their best basketball, right on time.

Let’s return to a question we posed before the Kentucky game: would you rather be the one seed in Kansas City, or the two seed in Louisville?

I’m not worried about the difference between playing a 15 or 16 seed, or even the potential quality of opponent in the Sweet 16. If Tennessee is trying to make its first Final Four and win the national championship, you want the easiest path to get there. And while we’ll break down the bracket as soon as it’s released like everyone else, in the advanced stats world, three teams have separated themselves at the top: Virginia, and the full-strength versions of Gonzaga and Duke.

They’re 1-2-3 everywhere you look, with the exception of the AP and Coaches Polls. North Carolina is third in both of those, set for a rematch with probably-full-strength #4 Duke on Saturday. The head-to-head police applaud the Tar Heels being ranked above the Blue Devils for now. We’ll see if that holds.

But everywhere else – Bracket Matrix, KenPom, NET, and Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology – Virginia, Gonzaga, and Duke are 1-2-3 in some order.

In KenPom, those three teams are somewhere between a 6-8 point favorite against Tennessee on a neutral floor. The Vols are currently seventh in KenPom, but within one possession of the other three teams in front of them (and the next four behind them). When we get closer to Selection Sunday, we can argue for Tennessee’s resume – which is outstanding, by the way, and with the win over Kentucky now includes another elite victory to go with the two overtime losses and Rupp Arena bullet point. Tennessee deserves to be ranked higher than they are right now, and I can make a plenty good argument that they deserve that fourth one seed.

But if we’re talking about ratings instead of rankings? Virginia and full-strength Gonzaga and Duke have separated themselves from the field. Those are the only three teams that would be more than a push against Tennessee. If we’re trying to survive and advance? I’d like to see those three teams in the Final Four, and not before. And the best way to do that is to grab that last one seed.

I think Tennessee’s odds of getting to Minneapolis are higher as the one seed in Kansas City than the two seed with a short drive to Louisville, if that drive ends with facing Virginia or Duke in the Elite Eight. Let’s be clear: we’re trying to win the national championship, which could very well mean going through those teams eventually. But when we’re also trying to make the Final Four for the first time ever? Let’s save it for Minneapolis.

The good news for Tennessee: I think they control their own destiny for that last one seed.

A Rick Barnes vs Ben Howland Showdown of Old

Fun fact: Barnes beat the Russell Westbrook/Kevin Love UCLA team at Texas.

It took Howland an extra year to get here, but Mississippi State is a six seed and climbing in the latest Bracket Matrix. The Bulldogs started 12-1 with an impressive set of non-conference wins (St. Mary’s, Clemson, Cincinnati, and the last team to beat Wofford on December 19). Then they opened conference play with an overtime loss to South Carolina and a four point loss to an Ole Miss team we still weren’t sure of. Since then they’ve gone 9-5, including two losses to Kentucky and an overtime loss to LSU. They ripped off five straight wins over lower-tier SEC foes before falling at Auburn 80-75 on Saturday. Their most impressive road win is at Ole Miss (who returned the favor in Starkville), but they lost at South Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama, and Auburn.

Tennessee blew out this team in late February last season on the road behind 24 points from Admiral Schofield, then got a much tougher challenge in the SEC Tournament before prevailing 62-59.

This is another good offensive team, led by Quindary Weatherspoon and fueled by what Lamar Peters gives them from the point. 6’10” Aric Holman is back and joined by 6’10” freshman Reggie Perry, who has been great on the offensive glass. The Bulldogs as a team are 23rd in offensive rebounding percentage and 36th in effective field goal percentage, shooting it well inside and outside the arc.

They also lead the league in blocks and steals, but have been victimized by the three ball (36.6% allowed, 12th worst in the league). When they create chaos, they win: 15-2 when they force at least 13 turnovers (with losses to LSU and Kentucky), 6-6 when they don’t.

The Vols will need to be clean, and they’ll need to be good defensively again. This will be the fourth Top 20 offense the Vols have faced this season, and Auburn will make five on Saturday. For Tennessee to earn that last one seed, the defense we saw against Kentucky must become the rule.

Just like they drew it up for a critical final week battle: 9:00 PM ET, SEC Network. Go Vols.

The best blueprint to beat Tennessee was fairly straightforward: get to the free throw line. The only teams to do it – Kansas (34), Kentucky (33), and LSU (31) – all got to the stripe at least 30 times, and all shot at least 15 more free throws than the Vols. Getting to the line slows Tennessee’s transition game, strains a fairly thin rotation, and makes UT’s elite offense merely very good.

Kentucky didn’t get 30 today, but they got 29. Tennessee was again on the wrong side of the disparity at -15. The Vols like jump shots (and are very good at them) and as a result won’t always shoot as many free throws, but when a team can defend the strength of Grant Williams inside without a ton of help, it can make Tennessee’s offense one-dimensional.

No matter what you thought of the officiating, Kentucky significantly outpaced the Vols at the stripe.

They lost by 19.

To be clear, Grant Williams and Jordan Bone were outstanding. Williams has never been so good against Kentucky, Bone never at all. And when one guard was on fire, the other fanned the flames: six assists from Lamonte Turner three days after he was the primary back court scorer? This team is so unselfish.

These Vols are obviously alive and well in the “best season ever” conversation. But it was going to be highly unfortunate to have that conversation without a win against Kentucky. You can check that box: that’s now 4-0 for Rick Barnes against Kentucky in Knoxville, where the Vols have won 8 of 12. And since Barnes’ arrival, Tennessee is now 5-4 against the Cats, none more satisfying than a 19-point beat down of a top five Calipari squad.

Tennessee beat Kentucky today because Williams and Bone were excellent. But the Vols routed the Cats, in spite of the -15 free throw differential, because of their defense.

Kentucky made 14 shots. Fourteen. Their previous season low was 20 against Cuonzo’s defense. The last time they made so few shots was against South Carolina five years ago.

Several of those 14 shots were of the tip-your-cap variety, some combination of great ball movement and a tough shot dropping. But far more often than not, Tennessee’s defense was everywhere. It was noticeable to the eye on every possession: more pressure on guards, better help on shooters, better everything. And not just better, but championship level good.

In Lexington, Kentucky shot 54.7%, the highest percentage the Vols have allowed all year. In Knoxville, Kentucky shot 31.8%, the lowest percentage the Vols have allowed in SEC play. In Lexington, Kentucky had 10 turnovers. In Knoxville, it was 17.

Lexington was the exception – the wake-up call, the face-punch, whatever you like – where Tennessee played its worst game of the year on so many levels. If the Vols want to win a national championship, today’s defense has to be the rule.

The Vols are now back on the edge of the Top 30 in defensive efficiency, swiftly closing in on the Top 20 mark almost every champion hits. They will immediately get more chances to shine: Mississippi State is 16th in offensive efficiency, Auburn 12th. To win the SEC, to earn a one seed, and to advance deep into March, the Vols need today’s defense. Their offense is good enough to have a chance to win everywhere that isn’t Rupp. But with today’s defense, the team that beat them in Rupp took an even bigger beating in Knoxville. The Vols were already a contender. If today’s defense becomes the rule and not the exception, it can make them a champion.

Welcome to March.

Ric Flair turned 70 this week (woo). So yes, to be the man, you’ve gotta beat the man. And yes, generally speaking, Kentucky gets to be the man in the SEC until someone else takes it from them on a regular basis.

But it’s also true that the Vols are defending SEC Champions, 3-0 against the Cats in Knoxville under Rick Barnes, and 7-4 in the last 11 meetings at Thompson-Boling.

LSU is certainly still alive in the conference race; they’ll have to earn it in Tuscaloosa and Gainesville down the stretch. But Tennessee and Kentucky are playing for something more. Only one can earn a one seed. After what happened in Lexington, and because the Cats are the Cats, Tennessee must go through Kentucky. But after what has happened on a regular basis for more than a decade in this building, Kentucky must go through Knoxville.

No game will impact Tennessee’s fate in the bracket more than this one.

So much of Tennessee’s resume is in the fall of 2018. It’s not just Gonzaga on December 9; in KenPom, Tennessee’s second-best win is Louisville on November 21. Its overtime loss to Kansas was two days later.

KenPom still loves Mississippi State (20th) and Auburn (16th), Tennessee’s opponents next week. But ye olde Bracket Matrix, not so much: the Bulldogs are a six seed, the Tigers an eight. Those are wins to shore up an argument for a number one seed. But to have the argument at all, the Vols have to beat Kentucky.

Gonzaga is atop the NET ratings, and unless Pacific (#220 KenPom) or St. Mary’s (#34, but lost 94-46 when last they met) want to do something about it, the Bulldogs should be a lock for the one seed in Anaheim. Gonzaga might have the best offense of the century in college basketball, but still can’t overtake Virginia in KenPom. The Cavaliers, whose only crime is losing to Duke by two in Durham and by 13 threes in Charlottesville, finishes with Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Louisville. They’re a one seed.

And then, over the next nine days, you’ve got Kentucky at Tennessee, Duke at North Carolina, and Michigan at Michigan State.

If the Tar Heels – 23-5 with every loss to a Top 30 team – sweep the Blue Devils, you’ll have to consider putting them on the top line. If Duke wins, with or without Zion, it’ll only confirm everyone’s suspicion that they are, in fact, the highest ceiling in the bracket. One of those teams is a one seed.

How will the committee view the Big Ten challengers from Michigan and Michigan State? NET is not their ally, with the Spartans sixth and the Wolverines ninth. I think the Kentucky/Tennessee winner will have a more compelling case atop the bracket.

Somebody is going to Kansas City unwillingly, of course. If you pencil in Gonzaga in Anaheim and Virginia in Washington, is it as simple as the winner of Duke/North Carolina and the winner of Tennessee/Kentucky, with the committee’s choice going to Louisville?

Here’s the other thing: no teams from the same conference can be the 1 and 2 seed in the same region. If Duke and UVA are ones in Washington and Louisville, North Carolina is likely going to Kansas City. If you’re the Vols, would you rather:

• Be the one seed in Kansas City with North Carolina at #2
• Be the two seed in Louisville with Duke or Virginia at #1

Driving distance is nice, but that’s an easy call for me. If we’re going to see Duke or Virginia, I’d like it to be in Minneapolis, not trying to get there.

I’m sure something crazy will happen between now and Selection Sunday to blow all this up. But if Tennessee wants to be in the conversation at all, it has to beat Kentucky.

Learn, Don’t Burn

That feeling of, “Man, we didn’t play well and we’re only down six at halftime, and we’re still the number one team in the country,” from Rupp Arena feels like a while ago, though ’twas only 13 nights earlier. Here’s the worst-of-the-year list from that game, revisited:

• The Vols had 11 assists at Kentucky, which was immediately “topped” with only 10 in Baton Rouge
• The Vols blocked one (1) shot, a season low. Kentucky blocked six, a season high allowed.
• Kentucky shot 54.7%
• The Cats had 33 free throw attempts, joining Kansas (34) and LSU (31) as the only teams to get 30+ this year and, of course, beat the Vols

And here’s what’s still true for our friends from the Bluegrass:

• When Kentucky shoots at least 28% from three, the Cats are 21-0. When they don’t, they’re 3-4.
• When opponents shoot at least 21 free throws, the Cats are 0-3. When they don’t, they’re 24-1.

For all of these reasons, and the general tone of being punched in the face in Lexington, this will be a toughness win. Is Tennessee tough enough to be the aggressor against the Cats this time? Can the Vols run their offense, which all season has involved great ball movement with paint touches, against Kentucky’s size and athleticism? Can the Vols be mentally tough enough to not allow a team to shoot above its average from three?

The ceiling this team earned in December will now be tested, as it should be, in March. Anything can happen in the NCAA Tournament. But if the Vols want to get there via an SEC title and a one seed? Kentucky must go through Knoxville. Tennessee must go through Kentucky. Wouldn’t have it any other way.

Saturday, 2:00 PM, CBS. Go Vols.

Tremont Waters did not play with an illness. Tennessee held Naz Reid to a single point – one overtime free throw – and 0-for-9 from the floor. The Vols also were even with LSU on the offensive glass at 13 each, though the Tigers only had 11 until back-to-back offensive rebounds led to the tying bucket in the final seconds of overtime. The Vols held LSU to 38.5% from the floor, their fourth-worst performance of the season.

But the Tigers got to the line 31 times, hitting 24 of them. Tennessee went just 12-of-16. It was enough to keep things close throughout, and when the Vols missed opportunities to win at the end of regulation and the end of overtime, one more whistle with 0.6 seconds left as Grant Williams and Ja’vonte Smart collided gave the Tigers two more free throws and the win.

Jordan Bone had bad luck at the end of regulation, slipping and falling on the run in the final seconds. Lamonte Turner took a bad shot with too much time left on the clock at the end of overtime…but, to a degree, if you’re going to live with Lamonte Turner as the Vols did at Rupp Arena last year, sometimes you’re also going to have to die with him.

The refs were the story for their constant use of lengthy video replay to confirm calls that seemed obvious. But the fouls are the real truth of this loss, an all-too-common thread in Tennessee’s defeats:

• Kansas: KU 22-of-34 (64.7%), UT 12-of-17 (70.6%)
• Kentucky: UK 23-of-33 (69.7%), UT 14-of-18 (77.8%)
• LSU: LSU 24-of-31 (77.4%), UT 12-of-16 (75%)

Those three represent the only times this season the Vols sent the opposition to the line 30+ times, but two of them included overtime. The more jarring stat is the difference: Kansas +17 attempts, Kentucky +16, LSU +15.

Tennessee still has the nation’s second-best offense in KenPom after this one. It may very well be that the best way to stop Tennessee’s offense is to get to the line, prevent transition, and get a shorter rotation in foul trouble.

All that said…Tennessee is 24-3 with losses to Top 15 teams, two in overtime. But if you’re looking for a blueprint to give yourself a chance to beat the Vols in March? To me, it’s a convincing one.

Smart had 29 points, but shot only 9-of-22 from the floor. Some of his finishes you have to tip your hat to. The bigger problem was his ability to penetrate at will, which most often got him fouled (9-of-10 at the line) or created better chances for offensive rebounds even when he missed.

Thankfully the Vols have an extra day before going to Oxford, because Grant Williams played 40 minutes, Schofield and Turner 39. Tennessee did not use Jalen Johnson today and put Derrick Walker on the floor for only three minutes. Both teams looked exhausted down the stretch; the Vols had their chances and didn’t take advantage, and LSU did on that last whistle.

It’s tough to judge just how well Tennessee defended LSU without Waters, but overall defense (now 40th in KenPom) continues to need improvement to get to a championship level. But unless the Vols figure out how to defend without fouling against teams with penetrating guards and bigs who can clean it up behind them, they’re going to be in for more of a fight than we bargained for if they catch a bad match-up in the tournament.

Tennessee, Kentucky, and LSU will now be tied at 12-2 atop the league standings. Duke’s loss and Zion Williamson’s injury this week should separate Virginia and Gonzaga atop the bracket. The Vols can still get back to the front of the line in the league and for a one seed by beating Kentucky next Saturday. But first they’ll go to Ole Miss to face another NCAA-bound team.

Nothing is easy from here. Keep getting better.

Here’s the best way I know to describe what’s no longer on the horizon, but finally here:

Tennessee (24-2, 12-1) has played eight games against KenPom’s Tier A, representing a Top 50 opponent when adjusting for location. Half of those came in the non-conference (Louisville, Kansas, Gonzaga, Memphis). Both games against the Gators are now Tier A after Florida’s win at LSU, as were the trips to South Carolina and, of course, Kentucky. That’s eight of Tennessee’s 26 games.

The Vols are about to play five Tier A opponents in a row.

Tennessee has played seven games against teams currently in the Bracket Matrix. Three of those came against Alabama and Florida, currently two of the last four in.

The Vols are about to play five teams seeded eight or better in a row.

Of Tennessee’s 12 SEC wins, 10 came by at least 11 points. Adjusting for location, KenPom projects the Vols to beat LSU by one, Ole Miss by four, Kentucky by three, Mississippi State by nine, and lose to Auburn by one.

Everything is different from here on out. Every night will be a challenge, every win a good one by any margin. The next five games and the SEC Tournament are the dress rehearsal for the NCAA Tournament, and the Vols are still fighting for one of its top seeds.

A year unlike any we’ve seen so far now faces its toughest test. Let’s see what Tennessee has left to give.

DaCoachO Doesn’t Care For DaNoonTipoff

LSU shares the same strength of schedule issues as Tennessee, with a less murderous finish. After tomorrow the Tigers face Texas A&M, then back-to-back road trips to Alabama and Florida, then finish with Vanderbilt. The loss to the Gators midweek helps, and they could easily fall again in Tuscaloosa or Gainesville…but you want to stay ahead of this team in the standings, given what Tennessee has left.

Their road to 11-2 in conference play is paved with points: in 10 of their 13 contests, LSU has scored at least 80 points, and cracked 90 three times. The Tigers also beat Kentucky with just 73 points. The footrace works both ways: LSU has three overtime wins in league play, plus the OT loss to Florida. They also fell to Arkansas in an absolutely bananas game 90-89.

So tomorrow they’ll face the only SEC offense better than their own: the Tigers are 11th nationally in offensive efficiency, but the Vols still trail only Gonzaga in that department. The Zags have an offensive rating of 127.9, topped only in the KenPom era by the 2015 Wisconsin team that beat Kentucky.

The Tigers get it from a David-and-Goliath combo of 5’11” Tremont Waters and 6’10” freshman Naz Reid. Waters puts in 15.7 points and 5.9 assists per game; he’s also seventh nationally at creating steals. Reid gets 13.8 points and 6.6 rebounds per game, and is a sneaky good three point shooter (38.1%). LSU has other double-digit scorers in guards Skylar Mays (an 86% free throw shooter) and Ja’vonte Smart, but a huge percentage of their offense runs through Waters and Reid.

LSU is going to run, and they’re going to attack the rim and the offensive glass. They lead the SEC in both offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate. And when it goes the other way, they’re going to attack the ball: the Tigers are fourth nationally at creating steals.

But if you can get past all the havoc – which is considerable – their defense is vulnerable. The Tigers are sixth in the SEC in defensive efficiency, but dead last (and 277th nationally) in two-point field goal percentage allowed. And the Vols have been excellent from inside the arc, shooting 57.1% on the year: sixth nationally, best in the SEC.

The win over Vanderbilt on Tuesday was a Cuonzo Martin special: we didn’t make shots, but everything else was there. Tennessee’s defensive efficiency went from the mid-50’s to the low-40’s, a great sign for this team’s championship potential. Against a team as good as LSU, the Vols will need to make more shots, of course. But the defensive performance against the Commodores made me feel better about Tennessee’s ceiling.

It’s easy to oversimplify this game and say Tennessee needs Jordan Bone to outplay Tremont Waters, and Grant Williams to outplay Naz Reid. But after Tennessee had its worst game of the season on so many levels at Kentucky, the Vols can be more than just the same team from Lexington that happens to make more shots. Against a team that goes so hard to the offensive glass, we’ll see what Tennessee learned in the toughness department. But it’s not just an intangible, as three of LSU’s five losses came when teams beat them at their own game: Florida State had 19 offensive rebounds, Houston 17, and the Gators 14, the three highest totals the Tigers have allowed all year.

The Kentucky game was bigger on a national level, but for the whole of the season this is one of the most important games left. For Tennessee to remain in control of its own destiny in the chase for a number one seed, this is a big one to get.

High noon, ESPN. Go Vols.

With 111 entries, all of them updated since the Kentucky game, the Bracket Matrix still has Tennessee as a one seed. And it’s fairly comfortable: the Vols are the last one seed with an average seed of 1.22, and Kentucky is the first two seed with an average of 1.88. Say what you want about the AP poll, where the Vols dropped from first to fifth, but the vast majority of bracketologists still like Tennessee on the top line.

It will be interesting to see what the committee ultimately does with Nevada and Houston, the only one-loss teams left in college basketball. But the four favorites atop the bracket – Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga, and Tennessee – are the only two-loss teams left standing.

Tennessee’s biggest problem in perception isn’t that it lost at Kentucky. It’s that it lost by 17 in a game it trailed by 24. But take heart, friends: in 2017 North Carolina lost at Indiana by nine, at Georgia Tech by 12, at Miami by 15, at Duke by eight, at Virginia by 10, and to Duke again in the ACC Tournament by 10…and won the national championship. In 2016 Villanova lost to Oklahoma by 23 in December. In 2015 Duke lost at home to Miami by 16. You get the idea. Nothing is off the table.

But Tennessee’s biggest problem in reality is a defense now sitting at 52nd in efficiency when, again, only seven-seed UConn in 2014 won the national championship without an offense and defense in the top 20 nationally.

The Vols got punched in the face, and so far have said all the right things in the aftermath. It’ll be tough to judge against Vanderbilt, unless the Commodores are feeling frisky again. But Vandy is 0-12 in the league: a beat down should be the expectation, but it’s hard to prove anything against a winless foe. But beyond them, we all know what’s coming: each of Tennessee’s last five games will be against what should be a team with a favorable first-round match-up in the NCAA Tournament. It’s basically playing five second-round-or-better opponents in a row.

The chase for the league title is now especially interesting with the Vols and LSU at 11-1, Kentucky at 10-2. Here’s what everyone has left:

• Tennessee: Vanderbilt, at LSU, at Ole Miss, Kentucky, Mississippi State, at Auburn
• LSU: Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M, at Alabama, at Florida, Vanderbilt
• Kentucky: at Missouri, Auburn, Arkansas, at Tennessee, at Ole Miss, Florida

KenPom projects madness with 4-2 finishes for each team. Obviously, you don’t want to get behind LSU with that finale against Vanderbilt. If Duke, Virginia, and Gonzaga keep doing their things, talk of the final one seed coming down between Kentucky and Tennessee isn’t far-fetched at all.

Michigan could get in the way there, but if not, the committee’s choice between the Vols and Cats would go to Kansas City. The more challenging portion is an increased likelihood of the loser going to Louisville (yay!) as the two seed, but having to deal with Duke or Virginia in the Elite Eight (boo!). All those conversations about, “If we lose to Duke, so be it,” sound a lot better when you’re picturing that loss in the Final Four instead of the Elite Eight.

But all of that is miles ahead. We’ve seen enough to know what Tennessee is capable of in toughness and defense. Plenty of previous champions have been punched in the face. But if the Vols don’t do something good with the taste in their mouths, they won’t join them, and will be in danger of losing a favorable path to come closer than this program has before.

Keep getting better.