Author Archives: Will Shelton

The Vols, we think, are back in action tomorrow against Vanderbilt. Tennessee lost a date with South Carolina on Tuesday, then lost the reshuffled trip to Nashville, but we’re hopeful we’ll see the Vols and ‘Dores in Knoxville tomorrow (6:00 PM, SEC Network). The SEC left the final Saturday of the regular season open on March 6, so there’s a chance to make up one game. We’ll see what happens.

In Tennessee’s first ten games, the Vols have faced three Tier A opponents (via KenPom) and two Tier B opponents. On the other side of the Vanderbilt game comes the season’s most important stretch: five straight weeks, ten straight games against Tier A or B competition. Tennessee’s final three games, as it stands today, are against lesser competition: the original date for the trip to Vanderbilt, a trip to Auburn, and Georgia in Knoxville. Throw in a potential make-up with South Carolina, and the Vols would finish with four straight games against teams outside the NCAA Tournament conversation (…we think. South Carolina has only played five games total, so they’ll have a ton of questions to answer upon their return to action).

But the stretch from January 19 through February 20 is where Tennessee’s fate will be decided: at Florida, Missouri, Mississippi State, Kansas, at Ole Miss, at Kentucky, Florida, at LSU, South Carolina, Kentucky.

There are two goals coming into that stretch, and the one should have a good chance to lead to the other: win the SEC outright, and earn the program’s first number one seed.

The SEC

Three years ago, when the Vols last won the league, Tennessee opened SEC play in a big game at Arkansas. The Vols lost in overtime in a contest that featured heavy referee influence, shall we say. Emotions were high, etc. Then Tennessee returned home and gave up 341234 offensive rebounds in a loss to Auburn.

The Vols, of course, figured it out: they beat Kentucky in Knoxville four days later, went 13-5, and shared the league title with…Auburn. As it turned out, Tennessee played the second-best team in the league in game two, we just didn’t know it at the time.

I point that out to say this year, the Vols opened SEC play on the road against Top 15 Missouri, and delivered an emotional result of a different kind: the 20-point win that made those two goals up there the right ones for this team. Then they returned home and lost a weird lineup game to Alabama, who hit 10-of-20 from the arc and 8-of-11 in the second half.

Turns out, Bama’s good.

The Tide followed up with a 15-point win over Florida in Tuscaloosa, and just beat Kentucky in Rupp – still worth something – by 20, which is plenty of something. Alabama is 5-0 in the SEC and now 21st nationally in KenPom. I think Tennessee played the second best team in the SEC in game two, we just didn’t know it at the time…and like 2018, we won’t get another shot at them.

KenPom projects the Vols and Tide to “split” the SEC title: Alabama at 14-4, Tennessee at 13-4, and maybe they’ll get the South Carolina game rescheduled. LSU is one game back in those projections; the Tigers and Tide do play each other twice, so some of that may sort itself out. But Alabama has the pieces and the 5-0 head start to make a serious run at the league title. And they too will make a lot of their living right now: Arkansas, at LSU, Mississippi State, Kentucky, at Oklahoma, LSU, at Missouri in their next seven games. The logic here suggests you want to be ahead of Alabama in the standings when they finish that stretch on February 6, as a trip to Fayetteville on February 24 is Alabama’s only game against a Top 60 KenPom foe in their final seven contests.

KenPom projects the Vols to go 7-3 in that ten game stretch after Vanderbilt, which would put them in range for a 13/14-and-4 finish. They’ll all count, and that goes for the chase for a one seed too.

The #1 Seed

Let’s write GONZAGA at the top of your bracket.

Baylor goes next, but the Bears are getting ready to run their own little gauntlet: at Texas Tech, Kansas, at Oklahoma State in their next three. If they run that table, put them in all caps next.

From there, the chase for the two remaining one seeds gets murkier. As was the case two years ago, a lot will depend on how the selection committee views the power of each conference: in 2019, three ACC teams were placed on the top line, while Tennessee – fresh off a huge win over Kentucky and a huge loss to Auburn in the previous 48 hours – fell to the two line. Unlike previous years where regional sites mattered, this year we should get something that far more resembles a true s-curve (with a few exceptions to keep top teams from the same conference in separate regions). So, for instance, if the goal is to avoid Gonzaga for as long as possible, you don’t want to be the last two seed or the first three seed, because that should be Gonzaga’s region.

But the surest way to stay away from the Zags until the Final Four – a place Tennessee has never been – is to earn one of the other one seeds.

In non-pandemic times, number one seeds have averaged 4.5 losses on Selection Sunday over the last four tournaments. That, of course, includes conference tournament play; Tennessee hasn’t won the SEC Tournament since 1979. So all of these projections from KenPom would be pre-conference tournament.

KenPom Projected Records

• Gonzaga 23-1
• Baylor 21-3
• Michigan 20-4
• Villanova 18-4
• Tennessee 19-5
• Iowa 20-6
• Texas 19-6
• Creighton 19-6

I’d also throw in Houston, projected to finish 20-3 in the American, as an option for a top two seed. From here, it depends on who else can separate in the two best conferences (Big 10/12), and how the committee views leagues like the SEC and Big East by comparison. Illinois is just .05 points behind Tennessee in KenPom overall, but projected to finish 16-9. Similar stories with Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Kansas, and West Virginia.

If Alabama keeps winning, more power to them: that helps the league’s image in a year when Kentucky isn’t a factor. But no matter what Alabama does, the Vols have to keep holding up their end of the bargain.

For what it’s worth, Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology has the Vols grabbing the final number one seed (with Texas the two in that region, spicy). It puts LSU on the four line, Alabama at five, Missouri at six, Arkansas at eight, and Florida at ten. In the January 11 Bracket Matrix, Tennessee is the third two seed, which would put them in Baylor’s region if the curve held. There Missouri is a four, Alabama at seven, with Florida, LSU, and Arkansas all at nine.

The Vols technically won’t control their own destiny for the SEC title until Alabama loses a game, but if the Tide run the table, uh, they’ll deserve it. But Tennessee still feels very much in control of its own destiny to capture a one seed, especially as Big 10/12 teams begin to pick each other off. It’s still the right goal for this team, and one that would give them the best chance to check some other program firsts off the list.

Ten games in, we’d normally be 33% of the way through the regular season. But depending on whether Tennessee’s game with South Carolina gets rescheduled, we’re more like 40-42% of the way home this year. Either way, we’ve got enough data to draw a couple of meaningful conclusions about this team.

Their defense still sets them apart: 87.1 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings is second nationally, and still the best for any Tennessee team ever. I still think the offense played better than it felt at Texas A&M, in part because they got a lot of action late in the shot clock: “This possession isn’t going anywhere, wait no here’s a bucket…”. On Sunday evening the Vols are 27th in KenPom’s offensive ratings, flirting with that dual Top 20 set every national champion has.

But the most striking thing about the offense continues to be how truly balanced it is.

Through these first ten games, Tennessee’s top seven scorers all average between 8-12 points per game. It makes the Vols harder to scout, harder to defend. Five of those seven have led the team in scoring already, but Santiago Vescovi’s 23 on Saturday are still the team’s season high.

And we really haven’t seen anything like that on a tournament team at Tennessee.

This year should/will make 10 NCAA Tournament teams from Tennessee in the last 16 years. The other nine had either four or five players each account for at least 10% of Tennessee’s total points (it jumps up to six players in 2006 and 2009 if you round up from 9.5%+).

But these Vols currently feature seven players accounting for at least 10% of Tennessee’s points:

Offensively, Tennessee’s best teams have leaned either to the one-two punch, or far more balance:

One-Two Punch

In each of these cases, Tennessee’s top two scorers nearly outdid the rest of the team by themselves. Doing it this way can make your ceiling heavily reliant on what the third guy can give you: see Josh Richardon’s late emergence in Tennessee’s 2014 run. The 2007 Vols were guard dominant, still playing Dane Bradshaw post minutes while Ramar Smith was the team’s third leading scorer. And in 2011, there really wasn’t much happening behind Hopson and Harris, and little fluid offense overall beyond those two getting their own shots: Cameron Tatum was the third-leading scorer at 12.5% of the team’s points, the lowest for any third scorer on these tournament teams.

You can find the more balanced groups simply by looking at how much each team’s leading scorer contributed:

Balance

In 2008, Tyler Smith’s arrival (and Chris Lofton’s health) made Tennessee far more diverse offensively, with great results. Tyler Smith also skews the 2010 math somewhat after being dismissed in early January, but Chism, Hopson, Prince, and Maze all ended up scoring between 14-19% of that team’s points overall, a strong sense of balance amongst that group.

Tennessee’s best offensive team walked the line between both: two years ago, Grant Williams had 22.8% of Tennessee’s points, Admiral Schofield 20%. But it was Jordan Bone’s offensive maturity – going from 9.8% of Tennessee’s points in 2018 to 16.4% in 2019, the third-leading scorer – that made a huge difference, while Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden continued to do their thing.

At the 40% mark, we shouldn’t expect these Vols to have a breakout offensive superstar. But I’m not sure we fully know what to expect beyond that, simply because we’ve never seen a Tennessee team rely on so many guys to get it done. That means one of the biggest unanswered questions is, “Who gets it done in crunch time?” Without Jaden Springer against Alabama and with John Fulkerson off the floor, Tennessee struggled. The late-game answer against Cincinnati and Arkansas was getting to the free throw line, with John Fulkerson a key component.

KenPom projects the Vols to play four one-possession games left on their schedule (at Florida, Kansas, at Kentucky, at LSU). The ebb and flow of a season suggests we’re going to see more than that in these last 14-15 games. Keep an eye on the crunch-time lineups.

The lead story should continue to be Tennessee’s defense. But the extraordinary, “It’s not about me,” balance of Tennessee’s offense is, so far, equally unheard of around here.

It makes sense, especially in pandemic times, that just when you’re feeling most confident about your team, you’re brought swiftly back to earth.

Tennessee’s 71-63 loss to Alabama dropped the Vols from sixth to eighth in KenPom, though the Vols now have the best defense in the nation in those ratings thanks to an equally rough day for Texas Tech. The Crimson Tide were battle tested and loved the three, and in the second half it loved them back.

The three biggest factors in Saturday’s loss were (hopefully) varying degrees of weirdness. Let’s take them in order from most to least weird, or how much we should be worried about them showing up again in the future.

Bama shooting 10-of-20 from three

After going 2-of-9 in the first half, Alabama was a ridiculous 8-of-11 from the arc in the second half, pushing the lead to double digits quickly then never allowing the Vols to get back within less than six. How often is a shooting display like that going to happen?

The good news: not very often.

Last year only Kentucky in Knoxville hit 50% from the arc against the Vols, and that was only 5-of-10. Two years ago, we saw how dangerous any team can be when they get this hot from three, as Colgate went 15-of-29 from the arc in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The Vols also survived South Carolina hitting 14-of-23 in Knoxville, but still won by scoring 85 points of their own. The Gamecocks also hit 7-of-13 in Knoxville in 2017; no team hit that high a percentage in 2018.

In general, this kind of game tends to happen only once or twice a year, unless you’re just incredibly unlucky: see Cuonzo Martin’s last team, which was really good defensively but saw NC State and Texas A&M hit 50% or better from the arc in Knoxville, then Michigan hit 11-of-20 in the Sweet 16. Overall five teams hit 50%+ against the 2014 Vols from three, helping them finish 341st in luck in KenPom.

You can tip your hat to Alabama, and hope the Vols maybe close out better in the corner going forward. But overall, this part should be more of an anomaly.

Vols missing nine free throws

Tennessee still shoots 74.7% from the line, 59th nationally. So nothing to worry about here just yet. But you only have to go back to…the previous game to find Tennessee shooting something worse than they did against Alabama at the stripe: 17-of-26 (65.4%) against the Tide, 14-of-24 (58.3%) at Missouri.

John Fulkerson was 3-of-8 against Alabama, but is still 27-of-35 on the season. Victor Bailey is 17-of-19, Santiago Vescovi 10-of-10, Josiah James 15-of-16. The biggest concerns here so far: Keon Johnson is 14-of-24, E.J. Anosike is 12-of-18.

You’re not going to shoot 75%+ every night, but other than those two guys getting better, I’m not worried here just yet.

Lineup Issues

In the first half, Jaden Springer got hurt, Yves Pons sat with two fouls, and Santiago Vescovi picked up his second (and eventually a Rick Barnes technical) with four minutes to play. Tennessee led 26-23 at that point. UT’s offensive possessions in those last four minutes went:

• Keon Johnson missed front end of one-and-one
• Drew Pember turnover after two offensive rebounds
• Drew Pember missed layup
• John Fulkerson hits 1-of-2 free throws
• Victor Bailey made jumper
• Rick Barnes deadball technical
• Keon Johnson missed layup

The Vols went into the locker room trailing 31-29. More unusual lineups ensued when Barnes benched Fulkerson for the final eight minutes, sticking with Vescovi, Bailey, Johnson, James, and Pons. That group was down by nine at the under eight timeout, and lost by eight, never getting closer than six. They outscored Alabama only 9-8 in those final eight minutes, with two of those Bama points on late fouls: good defensively, but inefficient offensively.

Overall, Tennessee’s scoring remains incredibly balanced with seven players between 8-13 points per game. But if you take it per minute, Tennessee’s most efficient scoring options look like this:

• Jaden Springer 22.8 points per 40 minutes
• Victor Bailey 19.9
• John Fulkerson 16.6
• Keon Johnson 16.2

Without Springer and Fulkerson down the stretch, the Vols looked like they lacked an identity offensively in crunch time. When things were tight against Cincinnati, it was Fulkerson drawing fouls (and hitting free throws) that pushed the Vols back in front, followed by a big shot from Pons. Down the stretch, there was a lot of one-on-one stuff from Bailey and Johnson, but it wasn’t enough.

In good news/bad news, Arkansas will provide a similar challenge on Wednesday: they love to go fast and shoot threes, and they join Missouri and Alabama as the kind of team Tennessee might see in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. We’ll see if Jaden Springer can go and how much Fulkerson plays; I bet Arkansas shoots less than 50% from the arc and the Vols miss fewer than nine free throws. But the lineup stuff will be most intriguing, even if the Vols don’t need a bucket down the stretch.

The Vols did their thing against Missouri, leading by 19 in the first nine minutes, 25+ for stretches of the second half, and 20 at the final buzzer. It wasn’t close, but it could’ve been closer in one regard: Missouri got to the line 30 times, but only made 18 of them.

It’s only the second time all year a team had more than 20 free throw attempts against the Vols, and the first was a function of pace: Saint Joseph’s went 15-of-21 at the stripe in 78 possessions, ten more than the Vols’ current average. File that away for the next two games, when Alabama and Arkansas will both try to speed things up and shoot a ton of threes. It’s the right order to catch it in, I think, as the Hogs do it better than the Tide so you ramp up along the way. It did not, however, work for St. Joe’s, who scored 66 points but gave up 102.

So I’m not worried about teams that try to run and gun with the Vols. But if we’re realistically at the point of trying to earn a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament, it’s worth diving into any possible weakness. It’s not foul trouble alone; Tennessee is deep enough to handle that, I think. But getting to the stripe is by far the best way to try to score on Tennessee.

Last year Tennessee was 1-7 when their opponents shot 27 or more free throws. The lone victory came against Arkansas, who shot a season-high 36 against the Vols, but Tennessee shot 30 themselves. You had to really get up there two years ago, but Tennessee was 1-4 when teams shot 30+ free throws in 2019. Four of those five games went to overtime, and it’s interesting to note that none of them shot it particularly well when they arrived, including Purdue’s 16-of-33 at the stripe in the Sweet 16. Obviously, some of this makes sense if you’re fouling down late. But it still holds true that when Tennessee’s best team got in trouble, it showed up mostly clearly at the line.

It’s a trade Rick Barnes’ teams have often made at Tennessee, whether by preference or personnel: emphasize aggressive defense, try to force turnovers, and hope you come out in ahead in the balance on the whistle. It is, in may ways, the opposite of what Cuonzo Martin’s defenses did at Tennessee: defend without fouling and eliminate offensive rebounds. Instead of not giving a team any second chances, Barnes’ Vols – especially this team – prefer to create turnovers on the first chance.

His first team was average in both regards, but starting in 2017 the Vols have been whistled more often. Via KenPom, here’s Tennessee’s national rank in free throw rate allowed under Barnes:

Even what we thought of as a really good defensive team in 2018 struggled here. No surprise, they went 2-4 when allowing 29+ free throw attempts.

Keep an eye out next week: the Vols go to Texas A&M, currently third in the nation in offensive free throw rate with Emanuel Miller one of the best in the nation at drawing fouls. For the Vols, this has mostly been a backcourt issue with Vescovi and Keon Johnson picking up the quickest whistles, but per minute those honors belong to backup post players in Anosike and Nkamhoua.

But here again, the Vols put Mizzou on the stripe 30 times…and won by 20. Right now the weaknesses go under the microscope, both because this Tennessee team is capable of so much, and so far it’s the only way to see them.

Okay.

Missouri was undefeated with wins over Oregon, Wichita State, and Illinois. They’re ranked 12th in the country.

And Tennessee jumped them 23-4 in the first 8.5 minutes. The Tigers never got within single digits.

Defense: everywhere. Offense: everyone. This is Tennessee.

Missouri shot 36.4% from the floor, 3-of-16 from the arc, and turned it over 21 times. If there was a flaw tonight, it was some combination of Tennessee’s over-aggressiveness and the referees’ response in calling so many fouls. Missouri shot 30 free throws, but missed a dozen of them. And Yves Pons had four soul-crushing blocks.

Offensively, it’s like drawing names out of a hat: 15 from Vescovi, 13 from Pons and Springer, 11 from Fulkerson, 9 from Bailey. The Vols shot 50% from the floor, took just seven threes, and made five of them.

This Tennessee team should move into second place in program history in the KenPom era, passing another Cuonzo Martin squad from 2014. We’ll need more data to figure out if they’re better than the 2019 squad. But every data point with this team, as with that one, is a joy.

It’s one SEC game, but when it’s on the road against the only other ranked team in the league, you’re allowed to dream. And here’s what Tennessee should put out there in front of themselves:

• Win the league outright, for the first time since 2008 and only the third time ever.
• Get a one seed in the NCAA Tournament for the first time ever. If Gonzaga and Baylor are playing at a level above everyone else, the only way you guarantee you don’t see them until the Final Four is to earn one of the other one seeds.

Watching this team, these aren’t farfetched ideas.

This was a late tip tonight. But you should watch this team. A lot.

It’s Alabama next, Saturday at 6:00 PM in Knoxville. One down, 17 to go.

Go Vols.

Big, big game tonight.

Cuonzo’s teams make a good living off of frustrating their opponents. When it happens, it can really happen: his second Tennessee team beat Kentucky by 30, his third beat Virginia by 35 and won five straight by 15+ points at the end of the regular season and the first round of the SEC Tournament. And they thrive at home: even last year, a 15-16 Missouri team beat Florida by 16 and Auburn by a dozen in CoMo.

So one of the most impressive things the 2019 Vols did came quietly: three days after opening SEC play with a 96-50 beat down of Georgia, Tennessee went to Mizzou. Cuonzo’s team did their thing: they held Grant Williams to four points on 1-of-8 shooting. It was his lowest point total of the year, and only one of three games when he didn’t hit double figures.

Then they took away Tennessee’s ball movement. The Vols finished with just 12 assists, tied for their lowest total all year in victory. Only LSU (10), Kentucky (11), and Auburn (11) held Tennessee to less, all Sweet 16 teams.

Missouri led by nine with seven minutes to play in the first half.

Tennessee won by 24.

That’s how good the 2019 Vols were: when forced to go to Plan C on the road, they still dominated. When Grant was held in check and the offense couldn’t create good looks through good ball movement, it was Jordan Bowden (20 points) and Kyle Alexander (14 points, 17 rebounds) who got the job more than done.

This Missouri team is plenty good, and plenty capable of frustration. What’s this Tennessee team’s Plan C?

…and are we sure we’ve figured out their Plan A yet?

The answers to any plan will include, “Defense, obviously.” The Vols are currently in the Top 13 nationally in all four defensive factors. That’s, uh, pretty good.

Offensively, I think Plan A is still to run through John Fulkerson. Last year Fulky was one of the nation’s surest bets from inside the arc, and he got to the line as well. He’s still doing that, and currently 21-of-23 from the stripe this year. The raw numbers are different because everyone is playing fewer minutes this season. But if you need a bucket down the stretch, I think #10 is getting the ball.

We haven’t really had to see Plan B yet. When Cincinnati took a 53-51 lead with six minutes to play, it was defense first – they didn’t score for another 4.5 minutes – and Fulkerson doing the dirty work. He hit four straight free throws to put Tennessee back on top, then it was Yves Pons adding a jumper to push it out to two possessions. That part we know.

The new pieces remain fascinating, especially as they all seem so capable. Victor Bailey leads the team in scoring at 13.2 points per game, and any one of seven Vols seem capable of leading them in scoring on any given night. It’s a little early for this kind of fun, but right now the Vols have six players responsible for at least 10% of the team’s points, and Pons is just outside at 9.3%. Among our recent NCAA Tournament teams, only the 2006 Vols had six different players account for at least 10% of the team’s points; no one else had more than five. This bunch might get seven. We’ll see.

One of these plans feels like, “out-talent them.” Get your own shots, let the freshmen do their thing, etc. Missouri probably isn’t the one to find out if that’s good enough against. The things Tennessee does well – get high percentage shots, don’t turn it over, get offensive rebounds – it will take a particularly good defense and/or a particularly cold shooting night to fall short with. And Tennessee’s defense is so good, as we saw against Colorado and Cincinnati, option number two may not matter anyway.

But in a game like this, how much of Tennessee’s offense will still go through Fulkerson? And if Missouri takes away Plan A again, where will the Vols turn this time?

Lots of questions tonight, and plenty of intrigue and possibility in the answers. 9:00 PM ET, SEC Network.

Go Vols.

How rare is what we’ll see at 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday night?

In all the excitement of Tennessee’s hot start, we find ourselves asking not only if the Vols can win the SEC outright…but do so by such a margin that the quality of the rest of the league simply won’t matter. But before we get too far into the forest, a moment to appreciation this particular tree.

The Vols are up to #7 in this week’s AP poll, Missouri at #12, making this a Top 15 showdown. Tennessee played in six of these two years ago, including five Top 10 showdowns (all three games against Kentucky, plus Kansas and Gonzaga). So you’re forgiven if it feels a little normal.

But it is most definitely not: via in the media guide, in the last 20 seasons, the Vols have played in only 25 games when Tennessee and their opponent were both ranked in the Top 15:

• Six times in 2019
• A dozen for the Bruce Pearl era (2006-11)
• Seven times in 2000 and 2001

Before those last two Jerry Green seasons, you have to go all the way back to 1983 to find one. So yes, this is rare.

Five of those 25 games have come in the NCAA Tournament. Of the 20 to take place in the regular season, half have come against Kentucky (6) and Florida (4). To find an SEC Top 15 showdown involving Tennessee and someone other than the Cats and Gators, you’ve gotta go back all of those 20 years to the Vols and Auburn in 2000 (a 29-point Tennessee triumph in Knoxville).

So on multiple fronts, Wednesday night is a unique opportunity. The Vols and Tigers will do it again in Knoxville on January 23, one week before the Vols host #3 Kansas. So while there may be additional opportunities this season, there are no guarantees. Enjoy the moment, even if you have to stay up late to do so.

Tennessee’s history in those Top 15 showdowns:

2019

• #2 Kansas 87 #5 Tennessee 81 (OT) (Preseason NIT)
• #7 Tennessee 76 #1 Gonzaga 73 (Phoenix)
• #5 Kentucky 86 #1 Tennessee 69 (Lexington)
• #7 Tennessee 71 #4 Kentucky 54 (Knoxville)
• #8 Tennessee 82 #4 Kentucky 78 (SEC Tournament)
• #13 Purdue 99 #6 Tennessee 94 (OT) (Sweet Sixteen)

Hoo boy, was this a fun ride. While we obviously won’t be duplicating a triple threat Top 10 with Kentucky this season, in non-pandemic times, we would’ve had another shot at #1 Gonzaga plus #9 Wisconsin in the non-conference this year.

Bruce Pearl Era

• 2006: #10 Tennessee 76 #12 Florida 72 (Gainesville)
• 2008: #15 Texas 97 #7 Tennessee 78 (Legends Classic)
• 2008: #2 Tennessee 66 #1 Memphis 62 (Memphis)
• 2008: #5 Tennessee 76 #11 Butler 71 (OT) (Second Round)
• 2008: #13 Louisville 79 #5 Tennessee 60 (Sweet Sixteen)
• 2009: #9 Gonzaga 83 #12 Tennessee 74 (Old Spice Classic)
• 2010: #6 Purdue 73 #9 Tennessee 72 (Paradise Jam)
• 2010: #3 Kentucky 73 #9 Tennessee 62 (Lexington)
• 2010: #2 Kentucky 74 #15 Tennessee 45 (SEC Tournament)
• 2010: #15 Tennessee 76 #5 Ohio State 73 (Sweet Sixteen)
• 2010: #13 Michigan State 70 #15 Tennessee 69 (Elite Eight)
• 2011: #11 Tennessee 83 #3 Pittsburgh 76 (Pittsburgh)

While some of the most memorable Pearl wins involved Tennessee playing outside the Top 15 (with memorable 2010 victories over #1 Kansas and 2 Kentucky just missing the cut in what would’ve made seven such games in that year alone), it’s still an impressive list. Rick Barnes also makes an appearance here, getting the best of the 2008 Vols after coming up short the two previous years. Credit Pearl for getting in one of these games in five of his six seasons in Knoxville.

2000 & 2001

• 2000: #11 Tennessee 105 #7 Auburn 76 (Knoxville)
• 2000: #14 Kentucky 81 #6 Tennessee 68 (Lexington)
• 2000: #8 Tennessee 76 #12 Florida 73 (OT) (Knoxville)
• 2001: #14 Virginia 107 #4 Tennessee 89 (Jimmy V Classic)
• 2001: #4 Tennessee 83 #12 Syracuse 70 (Syracuse)
• 2001: #13 Florida 81 #8 Tennessee 67 (Gainesville)
• 2001: #11 Florida 88 #15 Tennessee 82 (Knoxville)

The 1999-00 season was my freshman year at UT, and those two games in Knoxville were incredible, especially for a program that hadn’t played in a Top 15 game in 15 years at that point. Auburn was on the cover of Sports Illustrated as their preseason number one, and the Vols annihilated them. The overtime win against Florida came after the Vols won in Gainesville in double overtime. And you can also see where it started to go wrong for Jerry Green the next year: the Virginia and Syracuse games were back-to-back, a classic, “We’re overrated, nevermind, we’re underrated!” sequence. And the last one was the second of a three-game home losing streak to Kentucky, Florida, and Georgia where the Vols gave up an average of 93 points per loss.

All told in these 25 games: 11-14, but just 4-7 as the higher ranked team. Let’s hope that’s trending in the other direction tomorrow night.

With apologies to Sunday’s clash between Vanderbilt and Alcorn State, we turn our eyes to conference play: four games teams on Tuesday night, then the rest of us jump on board on Wednesday, including the Top 15 showdown between the Vols and Missouri. More on that game to come, but first, a look at the landscape, where the grass is far less blue.

It’s a credit to Kentucky that the SEC basketball conversation defaults to them. But the immediate question becomes, with the Cats now 1-6 and their only win over Morehead State, how will the league be perceived when its golden goose is down?

Everything, of course, is weird this year. Kentucky’s SEC opener is postponed due to covid issues at South Carolina, which I’m sure won’t be the last of that. The league implemented an open date of sorts on what would normally be the final Saturday of the regular season on March 6, which I’m assuming gives room for a single make-up game. We’ll see how they choose to handle that if/when teams face multiple cancellations. But we already know we’re dealing with a smaller sample size: Tennessee lost games with #1 Gonzaga and #9 Wisconsin, and though the Colorado pickup looks good (also receiving votes at 6-1 and 24th in KenPom), the Vols need their game with Kansas to be played free of covid issues. Otherwise, we’d be left with the same question facing most of the SEC: how good are we, really?

The perception problem isn’t just Kentucky at the top, but a significant shift from preseason expectations:

Not much has changed at the bottom, though keep an eye on 7-0 Georgia, who did beat faltering Cincinnati by more than we did. At the top, Kentucky has been unusually bad, and Florida’s season is now totally unpredictable after Keyontae Johnson’s health scare. Meanwhile, Missouri is undefeated and in the Top 15 of both polls, while Ole Miss has a three-point loss to Dayton and is beating bad teams by 35-40 points.

What happens to the SEC when Kentucky has a down year? Seven years ago the Cats missed the NCAA Tournament, and the league put just two teams in the field at-large – Florida as a three seed despite finishing second in KenPom, Missouri as a nine – plus Marshall Henderson’s Ole Miss team at 12 as SEC Tournament champions. Cuonzo Martin’s Vols were left out at 20-12 (11-7).

This year, the SEC is currently fourth in KenPom’s conference ratings, just behind the ACC and just ahead of the Big East. With the Big Ten and Big 12 battling it out for conference supremacy, the SEC will get its annual chance to improve its perception in a few weeks in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. In the Christmas Eve Bracket Matrix, the league has five teams in the field (starting with the Vols as a three seed), with Ole Miss among the first four out. After putting eight teams in the NCAA Tournament in 2018 and seven in 2019, five would certainly be a disappointment.

Of course, there’s a simple solution for Tennessee: win the league, and leave no doubt along the way.

KenPom projects the Vols as SEC Champions at 13-5. Tennessee is chasing its second league title in four years, but also just its fourth in 39 years. Most recently, the Vols shared the title in 1982, 2000 and 2018, which means they’ve only won it outright one time since 1967, and twice ever. That accomplishment last belonged to the 2008 Vols.

Can they do it? With Kentucky down and Florida uncertain, the opening stretch – at Missouri, vs Alabama, vs Arkansas – feels much more telling. If Tennessee navigates that stretch successfully, they can cement themselves in the Top 10 nationally and in the top seed conversation. In a year when you may want to avoid Gonzaga at all costs, one surefire way to do that is earn a one seed – the program’s first – yourself.

Could this Tennessee team climb that high? The defense checks out, while the offense is in progress. But with smaller sample sizes and an uncertain SEC, it may take an even better record than we’re used to. In the last four NCAA Tournaments, one seeds have averaged 4.5 losses on Selection Sunday. The Vols will enter league play with a clean slate. The longer they keep it that way, the better their chances to separate themselves from the rest of the league in the overall conversation.

In a year when Kentucky is down and league perception may suffer for it, it would truly be a program accomplishment for Tennessee to win the league outright and earn a one or two seed along the way, commanding their own level of respect regardless of what anyone else in the league does around them. And that’s exactly how they’ll enter league play: good enough to make their own fate.