Author Archives: Will Shelton

On Hendon Hooker at Virginia Tech

In the midst of what feels like perpetual uncertainty, a surprise: the Vols picked up a transfer portal commitment from Virginia Tech quarterback Hendon Hooker. I live in the Blacksburg “metro”, and have spent nine of the last 15 years in southwest Virginia. I’m by no means an expert on the Hokies, just someone who watches them more closely and interacts more often with their fans than the average Tennessee fan. You can find good analysis on Hooker’s game out there – here’s a few thoughts on how he got there.

Virginia Tech’s stability at head coach under Frank Beamer manifested itself into great stability at quarterback. There’s a long line of multi-year starters in the post-Vick era: Bryan Randall, Sean Glennon, Tyrod Taylor, Logan Thomas, Michael Brewer. As Justin Fuente took over in 2016, however, the pattern breaks. The first year the Hokies went the juco route with Jerod Evans, who we saw in Bristol. They won their division and gave Clemson a scare in the title game, Fuente was ACC Coach of the Year, all was well. Evans actually set some VT passing records…and then declared for the draft, where he was not selected, and has yet to play a down in the NFL.

In 2017 the Hokies went with freshman Josh Jackson. They again finished the regular season 9-3 with losses to Clemson and a good Miami team, and fell to #14 Oklahoma State in the bowl game. All was well. Then Jackson broke his leg in the third game of the 2018 season, what ended up being a catastrophic 49-35 loss to Old Dominion, maybe the first sign of some real defensive trouble under Fuente. Jackson ultimately transferred to Maryland.

Hendon Hooker was a freshman in 2018, but when Jackson went down the job went to Kansas transfer Ryan Willis. The Hokies were game against Notre Dame in a loss, then suffered four straight defeats in which they gave up 49, 31, 52, and 38 points. Willis again had the job at the start of the 2019 season, which opened with a loss to Boston College, close wins over Old Dominion and Furman, and a 45-10 beatdown in Blacksburg at the hands of David Cutcliffe. At this point, as people were commenting on the heat of Jeremy Pruitt’s seat after Georgia State, BYU, and Florida early in year two, the sudden temperature of Fuente’s seat in year four made for a helpful comparison: Pruitt shouldn’t be in trouble after 15 games, this is what being in trouble actually looks like, etc.

Then Virginia Tech went to Hendon Hooker.

In his first start at Miami, the Hokies scored 42 points thanks to five turnovers and won by a touchdown. Hooker was 10-of-20 for 184 yards and three touchdowns, plus 76 yards on the ground. His numbers were similar in a win over Rhode Island, and got off to a good start against North Carolina before a familiar theme emerged: he got hurt in the first half, missing the rest of a six-overtime win over the Tar Heels. And he also missed Virginia Tech’s trip to South Bend the following week.

He returned to guide a three-game winning streak over Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Pittsburgh, never throwing for more than 260 yards but also never throwing an interception. His rushing totals became less productive – 7 for 10 against Georgia Tech, 20 for 27 against Pitt – but the Hokies were winning and their defense was playing well again.

In the last two games of 2019, the Hokies played wild affairs with Virginia and Kentucky. Hooker was 18-of-30 for 311 yards against the Cavs, but threw his first two interceptions of the year, the first on a hail mary at the end of the first half. The last one came with VT driving to take the lead in Virginia territory; he was also sacked three times in a row on the next drive. This is a theme you’ll hear on Hooker: if the defense knows you’re throwing it, he can struggle.

He was better on the ground against Kentucky in the bowl (12 for 50), but the Cats did a good job stopping him through the air (12-of-22 for 110).

Obviously, you take everything in 2020 with a grain of salt. Covid testing showed an unrelated medical issue that kept Hooker out of VT’s first two games of the year, wins over NC State and Duke. Oregon transfer Braxton Burmeister ran an efficient offense and stayed at the helm against North Carolina, where the Hokies lost 56-45 in a game both QBs played in. From there it was back to Hooker, who was sensational on the ground in a win over Boston College (18 for 164). He went for 98 more rushing yards against Wake Forest the next week, but threw three interceptions and the Hokies lost. The next week, however, he was 10-of-10 passing for 183 yards and ran for another 68 in a 42-35 win over Louisville.

Against Liberty, Hooker was again really good: 156 yards rushing, 20-of-27 for 217 through the air with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The Hokies lost a 38-35 shootout. Miami’s defense was better at taking all that away, beating Virginia Tech 25-24. And then the defense totally collapsed against Pittsburgh in a 47-14 defeat. Hooker again wasn’t bad statistically, but VT was never really in the game after halftime.

Then more weirdness: against Clemson, Hooker fumbled a snap on the opening drive and looked shaken, so Fuente went to Burmeister. He led a touchdown drive, so he stayed in the game. He was later removed for a scoop and score fumble, but the Hokies still trailed only 24-10 and had the ball in Clemson territory when Hooker returned. But he fumbled again, and appeared to have a medical issue on the sideline where he was shaking and “couldn’t get warm.” He did not play in the season finale against Virginia.

Had he thrown it enough to qualify, Hooker’s 2019 passer rating would’ve trailed only Trevor Lawrence among ACC quarterbacks. The Josh Dobbs comparisons I’ve seen are most fitting for pre-2016 Dobbs, the guy we wondered if they’d ever let him throw it deep down the field. That answer turned out to be an emphatic yes. Hooker’s dual threat skill set is something the 2020 Vols did not have on the roster, and he can certainly be efficient and mistake-free. It’s when defenses put him in third-and-long or he had to get them downfield in a hurry without his legs that Hooker struggled in particular. But there is no doubt potential and far more experience than anything the Vols will bring back next year.

In Search of Weakness: We found some!

It makes sense, especially in pandemic times, that just when you’re feeling most confident about your team, you’re brought swiftly back to earth.

Tennessee’s 71-63 loss to Alabama dropped the Vols from sixth to eighth in KenPom, though the Vols now have the best defense in the nation in those ratings thanks to an equally rough day for Texas Tech. The Crimson Tide were battle tested and loved the three, and in the second half it loved them back.

The three biggest factors in Saturday’s loss were (hopefully) varying degrees of weirdness. Let’s take them in order from most to least weird, or how much we should be worried about them showing up again in the future.

Bama shooting 10-of-20 from three

After going 2-of-9 in the first half, Alabama was a ridiculous 8-of-11 from the arc in the second half, pushing the lead to double digits quickly then never allowing the Vols to get back within less than six. How often is a shooting display like that going to happen?

The good news: not very often.

Last year only Kentucky in Knoxville hit 50% from the arc against the Vols, and that was only 5-of-10. Two years ago, we saw how dangerous any team can be when they get this hot from three, as Colgate went 15-of-29 from the arc in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The Vols also survived South Carolina hitting 14-of-23 in Knoxville, but still won by scoring 85 points of their own. The Gamecocks also hit 7-of-13 in Knoxville in 2017; no team hit that high a percentage in 2018.

In general, this kind of game tends to happen only once or twice a year, unless you’re just incredibly unlucky: see Cuonzo Martin’s last team, which was really good defensively but saw NC State and Texas A&M hit 50% or better from the arc in Knoxville, then Michigan hit 11-of-20 in the Sweet 16. Overall five teams hit 50%+ against the 2014 Vols from three, helping them finish 341st in luck in KenPom.

You can tip your hat to Alabama, and hope the Vols maybe close out better in the corner going forward. But overall, this part should be more of an anomaly.

Vols missing nine free throws

Tennessee still shoots 74.7% from the line, 59th nationally. So nothing to worry about here just yet. But you only have to go back to…the previous game to find Tennessee shooting something worse than they did against Alabama at the stripe: 17-of-26 (65.4%) against the Tide, 14-of-24 (58.3%) at Missouri.

John Fulkerson was 3-of-8 against Alabama, but is still 27-of-35 on the season. Victor Bailey is 17-of-19, Santiago Vescovi 10-of-10, Josiah James 15-of-16. The biggest concerns here so far: Keon Johnson is 14-of-24, E.J. Anosike is 12-of-18.

You’re not going to shoot 75%+ every night, but other than those two guys getting better, I’m not worried here just yet.

Lineup Issues

In the first half, Jaden Springer got hurt, Yves Pons sat with two fouls, and Santiago Vescovi picked up his second (and eventually a Rick Barnes technical) with four minutes to play. Tennessee led 26-23 at that point. UT’s offensive possessions in those last four minutes went:

  • Keon Johnson missed front end of one-and-one
  • Drew Pember turnover after two offensive rebounds
  • Drew Pember missed layup
  • John Fulkerson hits 1-of-2 free throws
  • Victor Bailey made jumper
  • Rick Barnes deadball technical
  • Keon Johnson missed layup

The Vols went into the locker room trailing 31-29. More unusual lineups ensued when Barnes benched Fulkerson for the final eight minutes, sticking with Vescovi, Bailey, Johnson, James, and Pons. That group was down by nine at the under eight timeout, and lost by eight, never getting closer than six. They outscored Alabama only 9-8 in those final eight minutes, with two of those Bama points on late fouls: good defensively, but inefficient offensively.

Overall, Tennessee’s scoring remains incredibly balanced with seven players between 8-13 points per game. But if you take it per minute, Tennessee’s most efficient scoring options look like this:

  • Jaden Springer 22.8 points per 40 minutes
  • Victor Bailey 19.9
  • John Fulkerson 16.6
  • Keon Johnson 16.2

Without Springer and Fulkerson down the stretch, the Vols looked like they lacked an identity offensively in crunch time. When things were tight against Cincinnati, it was Fulkerson drawing fouls (and hitting free throws) that pushed the Vols back in front, followed by a big shot from Pons. Down the stretch, there was a lot of one-on-one stuff from Bailey and Johnson, but it wasn’t enough.

In good news/bad news, Arkansas will provide a similar challenge on Wednesday: they love to go fast and shoot threes, and they join Missouri and Alabama as the kind of team Tennessee might see in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. We’ll see if Jaden Springer can go and how much Fulkerson plays; I bet Arkansas shoots less than 50% from the arc and the Vols miss fewer than nine free throws. But the lineup stuff will be most intriguing, even if the Vols don’t need a bucket down the stretch.

In Search of Weakness: Quick Whistles

The Vols did their thing against Missouri, leading by 19 in the first nine minutes, 25+ for stretches of the second half, and 20 at the final buzzer. It wasn’t close, but it could’ve been closer in one regard: Missouri got to the line 30 times, but only made 18 of them.

It’s only the second time all year a team had more than 20 free throw attempts against the Vols, and the first was a function of pace: Saint Joseph’s went 15-of-21 at the stripe in 78 possessions, ten more than the Vols’ current average. File that away for the next two games, when Alabama and Arkansas will both try to speed things up and shoot a ton of threes. It’s the right order to catch it in, I think, as the Hogs do it better than the Tide so you ramp up along the way. It did not, however, work for St. Joe’s, who scored 66 points but gave up 102.

So I’m not worried about teams that try to run and gun with the Vols. But if we’re realistically at the point of trying to earn a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament, it’s worth diving into any possible weakness. It’s not foul trouble alone; Tennessee is deep enough to handle that, I think. But getting to the stripe is by far the best way to try to score on Tennessee.

Last year Tennessee was 1-7 when their opponents shot 27 or more free throws. The lone victory came against Arkansas, who shot a season-high 36 against the Vols, but Tennessee shot 30 themselves. You had to really get up there two years ago, but Tennessee was 1-4 when teams shot 30+ free throws in 2019. Four of those five games went to overtime, and it’s interesting to note that none of them shot it particularly well when they arrived, including Purdue’s 16-of-33 at the stripe in the Sweet 16. Obviously, some of this makes sense if you’re fouling down late. But it still holds true that when Tennessee’s best team got in trouble, it showed up mostly clearly at the line.

It’s a trade Rick Barnes’ teams have often made at Tennessee, whether by preference or personnel: emphasize aggressive defense, try to force turnovers, and hope you come out in ahead in the balance on the whistle. It is, in may ways, the opposite of what Cuonzo Martin’s defenses did at Tennessee: defend without fouling and eliminate offensive rebounds. Instead of not giving a team any second chances, Barnes’ Vols – especially this team – prefer to create turnovers on the first chance.

His first team was average in both regards, but starting in 2017 the Vols have been whistled more often. Via KenPom, here’s Tennessee’s national rank in free throw rate allowed under Barnes:

YearFT Rate
202169
2020248
2019232
2018264
2017321
2016180

Even what we thought of as a really good defensive team in 2018 struggled here. No surprise, they went 2-4 when allowing 29+ free throw attempts.

Keep an eye out next week: the Vols go to Texas A&M, currently third in the nation in offensive free throw rate with Emanuel Miller one of the best in the nation at drawing fouls. For the Vols, this has mostly been a backcourt issue with Vescovi and Keon Johnson picking up the quickest whistles, but per minute those honors belong to backup post players in Anosike and Nkamhoua.

But here again, the Vols put Mizzou on the stripe 30 times…and won by 20. Right now the weaknesses go under the microscope, both because this Tennessee team is capable of so much, and so far it’s the only way to see them.

Tennessee 73 Missouri 53 – Defense: Everywhere. Offense: Everyone.

Okay.

Missouri was undefeated with wins over Oregon, Wichita State, and Illinois. They’re ranked 12th in the country.

And Tennessee jumped them 23-4 in the first 8.5 minutes. The Tigers never got within single digits.

Defense: everywhere. Offense: everyone. This is Tennessee.

Missouri shot 36.4% from the floor, 3-of-16 from the arc, and turned it over 21 times. If there was a flaw tonight, it was some combination of Tennessee’s over-aggressiveness and the referees’ response in calling so many fouls. Missouri shot 30 free throws, but missed a dozen of them. And Yves Pons had four soul-crushing blocks.

Offensively, it’s like drawing names out of a hat: 15 from Vescovi, 13 from Pons and Springer, 11 from Fulkerson, 9 from Bailey. The Vols shot 50% from the floor, took just seven threes, and made five of them.

This Tennessee team should move into second place in program history in the KenPom era, passing another Cuonzo Martin squad from 2014. We’ll need more data to figure out if they’re better than the 2019 squad. But every data point with this team, as with that one, is a joy.

It’s one SEC game, but when it’s on the road against the only other ranked team in the league, you’re allowed to dream. And here’s what Tennessee should put out there in front of themselves:

  • Win the league outright, for the first time since 2008 and only the third time ever.
  • Get a one seed in the NCAA Tournament for the first time ever. If Gonzaga and Baylor are playing at a level above everyone else, the only way you guarantee you don’t see them until the Final Four is to earn one of the other one seeds.

Watching this team, these aren’t farfetched ideas.

This was a late tip tonight. But you should watch this team. A lot.

It’s Alabama next, Saturday at 6:00 PM in Knoxville. One down, 17 to go.

Go Vols.

Tennessee vs Missouri: Plan C

Big, big game tonight.

Cuonzo’s teams make a good living off of frustrating their opponents. When it happens, it can really happen: his second Tennessee team beat Kentucky by 30, his third beat Virginia by 35 and won five straight by 15+ points at the end of the regular season and the first round of the SEC Tournament. And they thrive at home: even last year, a 15-16 Missouri team beat Florida by 16 and Auburn by a dozen in CoMo.

So one of the most impressive things the 2019 Vols did came quietly: three days after opening SEC play with a 96-50 beat down of Georgia, Tennessee went to Mizzou. Cuonzo’s team did their thing: they held Grant Williams to four points on 1-of-8 shooting. It was his lowest point total of the year, and only one of three games when he didn’t hit double figures.

Then they took away Tennessee’s ball movement. The Vols finished with just 12 assists, tied for their lowest total all year in victory. Only LSU (10), Kentucky (11), and Auburn (11) held Tennessee to less, all Sweet 16 teams.

Missouri led by nine with seven minutes to play in the first half.

Tennessee won by 24.

That’s how good the 2019 Vols were: when forced to go to Plan C on the road, they still dominated. When Grant was held in check and the offense couldn’t create good looks through good ball movement, it was Jordan Bowden (20 points) and Kyle Alexander (14 points, 17 rebounds) who got the job more than done.

This Missouri team is plenty good, and plenty capable of frustration. What’s this Tennessee team’s Plan C?

…and are we sure we’ve figured out their Plan A yet?

The answers to any plan will include, “Defense, obviously.” The Vols are currently in the Top 13 nationally in all four defensive factors. That’s, uh, pretty good.

Offensively, I think Plan A is still to run through John Fulkerson. Last year Fulky was one of the nation’s surest bets from inside the arc, and he got to the line as well. He’s still doing that, and currently 21-of-23 from the stripe this year. The raw numbers are different because everyone is playing fewer minutes this season. But if you need a bucket down the stretch, I think #10 is getting the ball.

We haven’t really had to see Plan B yet. When Cincinnati took a 53-51 lead with six minutes to play, it was defense first – they didn’t score for another 4.5 minutes – and Fulkerson doing the dirty work. He hit four straight free throws to put Tennessee back on top, then it was Yves Pons adding a jumper to push it out to two possessions. That part we know.

The new pieces remain fascinating, especially as they all seem so capable. Victor Bailey leads the team in scoring at 13.2 points per game, and any one of seven Vols seem capable of leading them in scoring on any given night. It’s a little early for this kind of fun, but right now the Vols have six players responsible for at least 10% of the team’s points, and Pons is just outside at 9.3%. Among our recent NCAA Tournament teams, only the 2006 Vols had six different players account for at least 10% of the team’s points; no one else had more than five. This bunch might get seven. We’ll see.

One of these plans feels like, “out-talent them.” Get your own shots, let the freshmen do their thing, etc. Missouri probably isn’t the one to find out if that’s good enough against. The things Tennessee does well – get high percentage shots, don’t turn it over, get offensive rebounds – it will take a particularly good defense and/or a particularly cold shooting night to fall short with. And Tennessee’s defense is so good, as we saw against Colorado and Cincinnati, option number two may not matter anyway.

But in a game like this, how much of Tennessee’s offense will still go through Fulkerson? And if Missouri takes away Plan A again, where will the Vols turn this time?

Lots of questions tonight, and plenty of intrigue and possibility in the answers. 9:00 PM ET, SEC Network.

Go Vols.

Tennessee, Missouri, and Top 15 Showdowns

How rare is what we’ll see at 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday night?

In all the excitement of Tennessee’s hot start, we find ourselves asking not only if the Vols can win the SEC outright…but do so by such a margin that the quality of the rest of the league simply won’t matter. But before we get too far into the forest, a moment to appreciation this particular tree.

The Vols are up to #7 in this week’s AP poll, Missouri at #12, making this a Top 15 showdown. Tennessee played in six of these two years ago, including five Top 10 showdowns (all three games against Kentucky, plus Kansas and Gonzaga). So you’re forgiven if it feels a little normal.

But it is most definitely not: via in the media guide, in the last 20 seasons, the Vols have played in only 25 games when Tennessee and their opponent were both ranked in the Top 15:

  • Six times in 2019
  • A dozen for the Bruce Pearl era (2006-11)
  • Seven times in 2000 and 2001

Before those last two Jerry Green seasons, you have to go all the way back to 1983 to find one. So yes, this is rare.

Five of those 25 games have come in the NCAA Tournament. Of the 20 to take place in the regular season, half have come against Kentucky (6) and Florida (4). To find an SEC Top 15 showdown involving Tennessee and someone other than the Cats and Gators, you’ve gotta go back all of those 20 years to the Vols and Auburn in 2000 (a 29-point Tennessee triumph in Knoxville).

So on multiple fronts, Wednesday night is a unique opportunity. The Vols and Tigers will do it again in Knoxville on January 23, one week before the Vols host #3 Kansas. So while there may be additional opportunities this season, there are no guarantees. Enjoy the moment, even if you have to stay up late to do so.

Tennessee’s history in those Top 15 showdowns:

2019

  • #2 Kansas 87 #5 Tennessee 81 (OT) (Preseason NIT)
  • #7 Tennessee 76 #1 Gonzaga 73 (Phoenix)
  • #5 Kentucky 86 #1 Tennessee 69 (Lexington)
  • #7 Tennessee 71 #4 Kentucky 54 (Knoxville)
  • #8 Tennessee 82 #4 Kentucky 78 (SEC Tournament)
  • #13 Purdue 99 #6 Tennessee 94 (OT) (Sweet Sixteen)

Hoo boy, was this a fun ride. While we obviously won’t be duplicating a triple threat Top 10 with Kentucky this season, in non-pandemic times, we would’ve had another shot at #1 Gonzaga plus #9 Wisconsin in the non-conference this year.

Bruce Pearl Era

  • 2006: #10 Tennessee 76 #12 Florida 72 (Gainesville)
  • 2008: #15 Texas 97 #7 Tennessee 78 (Legends Classic)
  • 2008: #2 Tennessee 66 #1 Memphis 62 (Memphis)
  • 2008: #5 Tennessee 76 #11 Butler 71 (OT) (Second Round)
  • 2008: #13 Louisville 79 #5 Tennessee 60 (Sweet Sixteen)
  • 2009: #9 Gonzaga 83 #12 Tennessee 74 (Old Spice Classic)
  • 2010: #6 Purdue 73 #9 Tennessee 72 (Paradise Jam)
  • 2010: #3 Kentucky 73 #9 Tennessee 62 (Lexington)
  • 2010: #2 Kentucky 74 #15 Tennessee 45 (SEC Tournament)
  • 2010: #15 Tennessee 76 #5 Ohio State 73 (Sweet Sixteen)
  • 2010: #13 Michigan State 70 #15 Tennessee 69 (Elite Eight)
  • 2011: #11 Tennessee 83 #3 Pittsburgh 76 (Pittsburgh)

While some of the most memorable Pearl wins involved Tennessee playing outside the Top 15 (with memorable 2010 victories over #1 Kansas and 2 Kentucky just missing the cut in what would’ve made seven such games in that year alone), it’s still an impressive list. Rick Barnes also makes an appearance here, getting the best of the 2008 Vols after coming up short the two previous years. Credit Pearl for getting in one of these games in five of his six seasons in Knoxville.

2000 & 2001

  • 2000: #11 Tennessee 105 #7 Auburn 76 (Knoxville)
  • 2000: #14 Kentucky 81 #6 Tennessee 68 (Lexington)
  • 2000: #8 Tennessee 76 #12 Florida 73 (OT) (Knoxville)
  • 2001: #14 Virginia 107 #4 Tennessee 89 (Jimmy V Classic)
  • 2001: #4 Tennessee 83 #12 Syracuse 70 (Syracuse)
  • 2001: #13 Florida 81 #8 Tennessee 67 (Gainesville)
  • 2001: #11 Florida 88 #15 Tennessee 82 (Knoxville)

The 1999-00 season was my freshman year at UT, and those two games in Knoxville were incredible, especially for a program that hadn’t played in a Top 15 game in 15 years at that point. Auburn was on the cover of Sports Illustrated as their preseason number one, and the Vols annihilated them. The overtime win against Florida came after the Vols won in Gainesville in double overtime. And you can also see where it started to go wrong for Jerry Green the next year: the Virginia and Syracuse games were back-to-back, a classic, “We’re overrated, nevermind, we’re underrated!” sequence. And the last one was the second of a three-game home losing streak to Kentucky, Florida, and Georgia where the Vols gave up an average of 93 points per loss.

All told in these 25 games: 11-14, but just 4-7 as the higher ranked team. Let’s hope that’s trending in the other direction tomorrow night.

SEC Basketball Preview

With apologies to Sunday’s clash between Vanderbilt and Alcorn State, we turn our eyes to conference play: four games teams on Tuesday night, then the rest of us jump on board on Wednesday, including the Top 15 showdown between the Vols and Missouri. More on that game to come, but first, a look at the landscape, where the grass is far less blue.

It’s a credit to Kentucky that the SEC basketball conversation defaults to them. But the immediate question becomes, with the Cats now 1-6 and their only win over Morehead State, how will the league be perceived when its golden goose is down?

Everything, of course, is weird this year. Kentucky’s SEC opener is postponed due to covid issues at South Carolina, which I’m sure won’t be the last of that. The league implemented an open date of sorts on what would normally be the final Saturday of the regular season on March 6, which I’m assuming gives room for a single make-up game. We’ll see how they choose to handle that if/when teams face multiple cancellations. But we already know we’re dealing with a smaller sample size: Tennessee lost games with #1 Gonzaga and #9 Wisconsin, and though the Colorado pickup looks good (also receiving votes at 6-1 and 24th in KenPom), the Vols need their game with Kansas to be played free of covid issues. Otherwise, we’d be left with the same question facing most of the SEC: how good are we, really?

The perception problem isn’t just Kentucky at the top, but a significant shift from preseason expectations:

Preseason Media PollCurrent KenPom
1. Tennessee1. Tennessee
2. Kentucky2. Florida
3. LSU3. Ole Miss
4. Florida4. Arkansas
5. Alabama5. LSU
6. Arkansas6. Missouri
7. Auburn7. Kentucky
8. South Carolina8. Alabama
9. Ole Miss9. South Carolina
10. Missouri10. Auburn
11. Texas A&M11. Texas A&M
12. Mississippi State12. Mississippi State
13. Georgia13. Georgia
14. Vanderbilt14. Vanderbilt

Not much has changed at the bottom, though keep an eye on 7-0 Georgia, who did beat faltering Cincinnati by more than we did. At the top, Kentucky has been unusually bad, and Florida’s season is now totally unpredictable after Keyontae Johnson’s health scare. Meanwhile, Missouri is undefeated and in the Top 15 of both polls, while Ole Miss has a three-point loss to Dayton and is beating bad teams by 35-40 points.

What happens to the SEC when Kentucky has a down year? Seven years ago the Cats missed the NCAA Tournament, and the league put just two teams in the field at-large – Florida as a three seed despite finishing second in KenPom, Missouri as a nine – plus Marshall Henderson’s Ole Miss team at 12 as SEC Tournament champions. Cuonzo Martin’s Vols were left out at 20-12 (11-7).

This year, the SEC is currently fourth in KenPom’s conference ratings, just behind the ACC and just ahead of the Big East. With the Big Ten and Big 12 battling it out for conference supremacy, the SEC will get its annual chance to improve its perception in a few weeks in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. In the Christmas Eve Bracket Matrix, the league has five teams in the field (starting with the Vols as a three seed), with Ole Miss among the first four out. After putting eight teams in the NCAA Tournament in 2018 and seven in 2019, five would certainly be a disappointment.

Of course, there’s a simple solution for Tennessee: win the league, and leave no doubt along the way.

KenPom projects the Vols as SEC Champions at 13-5. Tennessee is chasing its second league title in four years, but also just its fourth in 39 years. Most recently, the Vols shared the title in 1982, 2000 and 2018, which means they’ve only won it outright one time since 1967, and twice ever. That accomplishment last belonged to the 2008 Vols.

Can they do it? With Kentucky down and Florida uncertain, the opening stretch – at Missouri, vs Alabama, vs Arkansas – feels much more telling. If Tennessee navigates that stretch successfully, they can cement themselves in the Top 10 nationally and in the top seed conversation. In a year when you may want to avoid Gonzaga at all costs, one surefire way to do that is earn a one seed – the program’s first – yourself.

Could this Tennessee team climb that high? The defense checks out, while the offense is in progress. But with smaller sample sizes and an uncertain SEC, it may take an even better record than we’re used to. In the last four NCAA Tournaments, one seeds have averaged 4.5 losses on Selection Sunday. The Vols will enter league play with a clean slate. The longer they keep it that way, the better their chances to separate themselves from the rest of the league in the overall conversation.

In a year when Kentucky is down and league perception may suffer for it, it would truly be a program accomplishment for Tennessee to win the league outright and earn a one or two seed along the way, commanding their own level of respect regardless of what anyone else in the league does around them. And that’s exactly how they’ll enter league play: good enough to make their own fate.

While we wait, basketball!

Whatever is or isn’t going to happen with Jeremy Pruitt, the surest joy one can choose in the athletic department right now is back on the floor tonight at 6:00 PM against Saint Joseph’s (SEC Network). The Hawks are 0-4 but have faced the sixth-toughest schedule in the nation, losing to Auburn by five in overtime, Kansas by 18, Drexel by four, and Villanova by 20. They won’t be particularly intimidated by Tennessee on the front end, though the Volunteer defense has a way of doing that by itself once these games get going.

Tennessee’s offense is coming along nicely too, bolstered by a 103-point performance against Tennessee Tech last week. Jaden Springer became the first Vol to hit 20+ points in that contest, and is now averaging an efficient 12.5 points in 19.5 minutes per game. The really interesting thing with this group is how it feels like seven different players could lead the team in scoring on a given night.

In the early going John Fulkerson (12.8), Springer (12.5), Victor Bailey (10.8), and Josiah James (10.5) all average double figures. Keon Johnson is at 7.5 in 18.3 minutes. And we know Yves Pons (6.8) and Santiago Vescovi (5.8) are capable of an outburst as well.

The freshmen will continue to get plenty of opportunities, and Tennessee may continue to run a lot of its desired offense through Fulkerson, who still leads the team in field goal attempts despite foul trouble in the opener. But we’re also seeing early signs of the efficiency that can come from great ball movement to so many options. Not only is Jaden Springer proving to be a reliable threat (19-of-29 from the floor, 4-of-5 from three), but Josiah James isn’t far behind him (13-of-28 from the floor, 6-of-11 from three, 10-of-10 from the line).

Saint Joseph’s has a decent offense, comparable to what we saw from Cincinnati though they go about it with far less height. But their defense has struggled to keep up with better talent, 249th nationally in defensive efficiency. And 48 hours later the Vols will host USC Upstate, a team on par with the Tennessee Tech squad that just lost by 54 points.

But after that it’s a week off, then SEC play on December 30 at #16 Missouri. Two more chances to tune it up. But with nothing certain on the football side of things right now, Rick Barnes’ basketball squad is truly a gift to be enjoyed this time of year, and perhaps deep into March.

GRT Bowl Pick ‘Em

Well, a weird year gets weirder: the College Football Playoff field was announced yesterday, which means bowls start (checks calendar)…today. So jump in our free bowl pick ’em with confidence points at Fun Office Pools.

Today’s first game is at 2:30 PM ET, but as always we’ve made the earliest kick worth the fewest confidence points. So if you’re coming to this late, you’ll only be one point behind.

Good luck!

This could be Tennessee’s best defense ever

So, it’s three games. Two against what we believed to be bubble teams, though Colorado has leapt to 33rd in KenPom on the strength of two absolute blowouts since then. An absolute blowout is now the expectation tonight when the Vols host Tennessee Tech, so we may not learn a whole lot more just yet. League play is 12 days away, and the opener at #16 Missouri may indeed feature the two best teams in the SEC. More answers are coming.

But let’s take a moment to begin to appreciate what may already be true: this might be the best Tennessee defense since…ever.

We’ll use KenPom data, as usual, and call it the modern era. In just three games, the Vols have already jumped up a tier in that history, now just decimal points (22.04 points better than the average team in 100 possessions) behind 2008 (22.17) and 2018 (22.27). Cuonzo’s 2014 team is next at 23.69, with the 2019 Vols still a bit away on the mountaintop (26.24), meaning they’d currently be a little more than a possession favorite on this team. Still, through three games, this Tennessee team statistically belongs in the conversation of, “Who’s the second-best Tennessee team ever?” That’s high praise.

But defensively, these Vols are the conversation.

Tennessee is third nationally in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings, trailing Texas Tech and Clemson. That number – 86.2 points allowed against the average team in 100 possessions – is the best in Knoxville, ever.

These Vols are seventh nationally in effective field goal percentage defense, and sixth nationally in creating turnovers. Keon Johnson and Josiah James are Top 50 players in steal percentage. And they’ve done all of this, so far, without fouling much: 29th nationally in free throw rate allowed. In three games, UT opponents have shot only 34 free throws, and are hitting just 25.4% from the arc, 33.6% from the floor.

So yeah, very good, and very good nationally. But this early, I think the most understandable context is what other great Tennessee defensive teams have done. So here’s the list of Vol defensive efficiency via KenPom, which goes back to 1997:

1. 2021 – 86.2 points allowed vs the average team in 100 possessions

Stay tuned.

2. 1999 – 88.0

Jerry Green’s second team thrived on shot-blocking and was so tough inside with C.J. Black, Isiah Victor, and Charles Hathaway. Freshman Vincent Yarbrough also created his fair share of havoc, while Brandon Wharton and Tony Harris were strong on the perimeter. This group stumbled out of the gate after a #9 preseason ranking and had some bad losses against good SEC teams on the road, but closed with six straight wins including a 91-56 blowout of #23 Florida and the SEC East clincher in the regular season finale against #13 Kentucky, one of my favorite Tennessee games ever. They ended the regular season 20-7…then lost to Mississippi State in their first SEC Tournament game. As a four seed, they beat Delaware in round one…then got smoked by Missouri State in round two. But their ceiling was quite high, as you’ll see more in a moment.

3. 2010 – 90.4

The Elite Eight squad was solid all around defensively, especially when operating at full strength. But they excelled at taking away the three ball, with J.P. Prince, Scotty Hopson, and Cameron Tatum all long enough to do so. Basketball was different even just 10 years ago, and while this team could find itself in foul trouble, their ability to make you beat them inside the arc and clean it up with Wayne Chism and Brian Williams from there almost carried them to the Final Four. In that NCAA Tournament run they held Kawhi Leonard to 12 points and San Diego State to 59, ran past 14-seed Ohio (68 points), survived a villainous 31 from Evan Turner in the Sweet 16 but kept Ohio State to 73, and lost 70-69 to Michigan State (Draymond Green with a dozen off the bench). In terms of defense, this group probably got the most out of its entire lineup than any of these teams…with the possible exception of, you know, this year.

4. 2000 – 90.9

Jerry Green, Year Three: the Vols maintained an elite shot-blocking presence and added freshman Ron Slay to their arsenal, with an incredibly deep squad capable of disrupting just about any lineup you threw their way. In the annals of Tennessee basketball heartbreak, few top this group: ranked in the Top 5 in mid-February, 24-5 at the end of the regular season and SEC Champions. They too stumbled in their first SEC Tournament game, but earned a four seed and beat the defending champs from UConn in round two. The top three seeds in the region all lost in round two, meaning the Vols were the highest ranked seed left going to the Sweet 16, where they led 8-seed North Carolina late…before faltering down the stretch. These Vols were 17th in offensive efficiency, 27th in defensive efficiency.

5. 2018 – 92.4

The most recent torchbearers, Rick Barnes’ first Vol tournament squad finished sixth nationally in defensive efficiency in 2018. While the 2019 squad gave up too many threes, which ultimately cost them in the end, the 2018 squad was elite on the arc in surrendering just 31.8% from three. James Daniel’s presence is the only personnel difference there, otherwise they were the same talented bunch that spent a month at number one the following season. Without Kyle Alexander, we saw their efficiency drop in costly fashion against Loyola Chicago.

Some of the other candidates we’d think of are just behind on this list: Kevin O’Neill’s last team is seventh, the 2008 squad is eighth, Cuonzo’s last team is ninth. They were all excellent in particular areas: O’Neill’s team inside the arc, the ’08 Vols at forcing turnovers, Cuonzo’s team at eliminating offensive rebounds.

Again, it’s early. But this Tennessee team is in the Top 10 nationally in two of the four factors, and in the Top 30 in another. They’re in the Top 30 in defending from two and from three.

It’s early. But the bar defensively isn’t just high…right now, they are the bar.