Author Archives: Will Shelton

Two days off a huge Senior Day win over Florida, and one year removed from everything being shut down…this is a good week in Big Orange Country.

And of all the good things that have happened for Tennessee basketball in the last 15 years, the scenario this team finds itself in is actually the one we’ve experienced least. We’re much more familiar with…

• Obvious top seed (2006, 2008, 2018, 2019)
• The bubble (2009, 2011-14, 2020)
• The Tyndall-Barnes transition years (2015-17)

Only twice in these last 15 years have the Vols found themselves in our current predicament: we know it may not be on the top lines of any region, but we know we’re in. And from this position, Tennessee actually had two of its best tournament opportunities.

In 2007, the Vols were 22-10 (10-6) on Selection Sunday. Chris Lofton sprained his ankle halfway through the year, and the Vols lost six of eight. But then they won seven of their next eight before the curse of the Georgia Dome got us again in the SEC Tournament. Tennessee earned a five seed, put up a then-school record 121 points on Long Beach State in the first round, and beat Virginia in the 4/5 second round game when Ryan Childress and Chris Lofton made eight straight free throws in the final 30 seconds. If you’re old enough, you know the pleasure and the pain of what happened next: the Vols jumped out to a 20-point lead on the Greg Oden/Mike Conley Ohio State Buckeyes, but lost 85-84. A bananas stat from that game: the Vols shot 16-of-31 from the arc but just 8-of-17 from the line.

Three years later, Tennessee got their revenge in similar fashion. This time Tennessee was 25-8 (11-5) on Selection Sunday, and felt disrespected in falling to the six line. The Vols battled through Kawhi Leonard and San Diego State in round one, then made the madness work in their favor, beating 14-seed Ohio after they disposed of 3-seed Georgetown. And then, the Buckeyes: Evan Turner scored 31, but the Vols traded San Antonio for Saint Louis in a 77-74 thriller. Two days later, the Vols were one possession from the Final Four.

So even if these Vols don’t earn the highest seed we’ve seen under Pearl, Cuonzo, or Barnes, there will be opportunities to advance. Where exactly will the Vols fall on the seed line? In the 117 brackets submitted on March 8 in the Bracket Matrix, Tennessee’s average seed is 5.67. The Vols are the top six seed there today, and the second five seed in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology. On Torvik’s site, Tennessee’s resume is most similar to teams that earn an average seed of 5.4 in the NCAA Tournament, so that all tracks.

When I played with the Teamcast yesterday at Torvik’s site, there are scenarios where each win in the SEC Tournament could be worth a seed, if chalk holds:

• Lose to Florida and stay at 5
• Beat Florida, lose to Alabama, move up to 4
• Beat Florida, beat Alabama, lose to Arkansas, move up to 3
• Beat Florida, beat Alabama, beat Arkansas, move up to 2

That’s a lot of ifs, especially for the SEC Tournament, especially for Tennessee in the SEC Tournament, and especially for a pandemic year. (Will Warren also wrote on this today, and has a more thorough summary of where the Vols might land based on different results in the SEC Tournament.)

For the field as a whole, there’s plenty to watch. Using Tennessee’s neighbors in the Bracket Matrix, here’s a viewing guide for the next few days of Championship Week. Generally speaking, you want the teams we’ve listed with the Bracket Matrix seeds in bold to lose, with the possible exceptions of Vol opponents like Colorado and Missouri.

Tuesday, March 9

• WCC Finals: Gonzaga vs BYU (7 seed Bracket Matrix) – 9:00 PM – ESPN

Wednesday, March 10

• ACC: Clemson (6) vs Pitt/Miami – 2:30 PM – ACC Network
• SEC: Texas A&M vs Vanderbilt – 7:00 PM – SEC Network
• Big 12: Oklahoma (6) vs Iowa State – 9:30 PM – ESPN

Thursday, March 11

• SEC: Kentucky vs Mississippi State – 12:00 PM – SEC Network
• Big 12: Oklahoma State (4) vs West Virginia (4) – 11:30 AM – ESPN2
• ACC: Virginia (4) vs Syracuse/NC State – 12:00 PM – ESPN
• SEC: Florida vs Texas A&M/Vanderbilt – 2:30 PM – SEC Network
• Pac 12: Oregon (7) vs Arizona St/Wash. St – 2:30 PM – Pac 12 Network
• Big East: Creighton (5) vs Butler/Xavier – 6:00 PM – Fox Sports 1
• ACC: Florida State (5) vs Louisville/Duke/BC – 6:30 PM – ESPN
• SEC: Missouri (7) vs Georgia – 7:00 PM – SEC Network
• Pac 12: USC (5) vs Utah/Washington – 8:30 PM – Pac 12 Network
• Big 10: Wisconsin (7) vs Penn St/Nebraska – 9:00 PM – Big 10 Network
• SEC: Ole Miss vs South Carolina – 9:30 PM – SEC Network
• Big 12: Texas (4) vs Texas Tech (5) – 9:30 PM – ESPN
• Pac 12: Colorado (6) vs Stanford/Cal – 11:00 PM – ESPN

Enjoy the week.

Down 31-17 with five minutes to play in the first half, there were plenty of thoughts about what we had to let go of. Expectations, whether preseason leftovers or stubborn through the winter, were all getting a little slippery. Florida beat the Vols by 26 on January 19, and looked very much in control today even without Tre Mann.

I don’t know much for sure about this team, but whatever it does well in the SEC and NCAA Tournaments, defense will be a part of it. The Vols made a run because they held Florida to two points over those last five minutes (and zero in the last 3:37). The offense was a little slower to come along, but Victor Bailey, Keon Johnson, John Fulkerson, and free throws all had a role in getting it down to five at the break.

The Gators got three buckets in the first 2:22 of the second half, keeping the lead at seven. Their next made shot came seven minutes and twelve seconds later, which cut a Tennessee lead to four. Their next made shot came three minutes and twenty second after that, which cut a Tennessee lead to eight. Then nothing else until 3:30. Then nothing else.

Florida made only 20 shots today. In the last 17:30, they made three.

Along the way, the Vols forced 16 turnovers, ending the regular season 14-1 when they force 14+. Tennessee shot just 3-of-21 from the arc, the worst performance of the year. And the Vols went just 8-of-13 from the line.

But Tennessee won because it got 14 points from John Fulkerson in the first 22 minutes on senior day. And then, perhaps because the old Fulky showed up, some things opened up for the rest of the Vol offense the rest of the way home. While Florida was making just three shots in the final 17:30, the Vols got buckets from Pons, Bailey, Springer, Vescovi, Bailey, Springer, Bailey, Pons, Keon, Keon, Josiah, Keon, and Keon. Young #45 certainly had the motor for the final minutes. Old #10 made sure those minutes had a chance to matter.

And so Tennessee won, 65-54 on Senior Day. The Vols earn a double bye in the SEC Tournament and, if the bracket holds, will see the Gators again on Friday.

The Vols won their seventh SEC game by 10+ points; only 2008 (eight), 2014 (nine), and 2019 (12) had more. And sure, they lost three SEC games by 10+ points; only 2007 and 2010 (four each) had more among Tennessee’s recent NCAA Tournament teams. But not only is this pandemic year an opportunity to be thankful this season existed at all…this Tennessee team has given us a handful of memories that will last, including today. Missouri, Kansas, Rupp again…and now today, won with defense and perseverance in a way that might best represent what this season is about.

John Fulkerson’s final postgame comments are must listen. pic.twitter.com/3YVzp1xpxP

— Vol Network (@VolNetwork) March 7, 2021

John Fulkerson – flying freshman, slayer of Rupp, and the best of us on Senior Day – will be one of those guys we remember, just like the ones he listened to growing up. Yves Pons – the player I’ve spent the most number of possessions watching on the defensive end in my nearly 40 years – will be one too.

We’re not done here. First it’s Nashville and an SEC Tournament that should be all kinds of fun. Then the NCAA Tournament. There is basketball left in front of this team; if there’s a lot of it left, Tennessee’s defense will again have something to do with it.

But today, more than just saying thanks for being here, Tennessee won in a way that carries so much pride. This season has been hard. This game was headed in the same direction, with less help than ever coming from three.

And yet, Tennessee rallied. And Tennessee won.

This season has been tough. But so has this team.

Go Vols.

When the league expanded before the start of the 2012-13 season, basketball was expected to be one of the biggest winners. The year before, not only did Kentucky win the national championship, but incoming Missouri was 30-4 and a two seed out of the Big 12. They lost to Norfolk State in the first round, perhaps a sign of things to come: for the first four years with Mizzou and Texas A&M in the fold, the SEC really struggled to improve itself in the national conversation.

In 2013 the league put just three teams in the NCAA Tournament, and would’ve had just two if not for Marshall Henderson in the SEC Tournament. Florida went 18-0 in league play the following year, with the Vols just making three tournament teams via Dayton. Kentucky went 18-0 the next year. And in 2016, Vanderbilt squeaked in as an 11-seed with 14 losses, then got blown out by Wichita State.

The first noticeable improvement came in 2017. It started small: five tournament teams, all seeded nine or better. Then three of them made it through to the Elite Eight.

2018 saw the most competitive battle for the league crown, with Tennessee and Auburn sharing at 13-5 while eight teams made the NCAA Tournament. And in 2019 the league had two teams in the final KenPom Top 10 (Vols and Cats), five in the Top 25, and seven in the Top 50, all setting or tying records for the SEC in the expansion era. Four teams made what was one of the most loaded Sweet 16’s in the history of the tournament.

Who knows what would’ve happened last March, but in the regular season the league took a step back. We think four teams would’ve been in the tournament for sure, but Kentucky was the highest-rated in KenPom at only 29th. And in KenPom’s conference rankings, which rate each league based on how a good a team expected to go .500 in your conference is, the SEC finished sixth, a clear step back after finishing fourth in 2018 and 2019.

But this year, the SEC rates as the third best conference in college basketball. It is the league’s best mark since 2007. In the expansion era using that KenPom .500 team ranking:

Year	League Rank
2021	3
2020	6
2019	4
2018	4
2017	5
2016	6
2015	5
2014	6
2013	7

What makes the SEC stronger this year?

The league is good at the top. The SEC currently has four teams in the KenPom Top 30, and could still get three teams on the Top 4 seed lines of the NCAA Tournament if the Vols and Arkansas do well in Nashville, which only happened in 2019 in the expansion era.

And Alabama has an opportunity to be one of the ten best SEC teams of the expansion era:

Best SEC Teams via KenPom, 2013-present

Team	KenPom
15 Kentucky	36.91
13 Florida	31.18
14 Florida	28.57
17 Kentucky	27.72
19 Kentucky	27.57
17 Florida	27.5
19 Tennessee	26.24
16 Kentucky	25.14
19 Auburn	25
21 Alabama	24.78

And the league is much better at the bottom. Texas A&M is the wild card in this pandemic year, playing zero games in the month of February. They bring up the rear in KenPom at 130th. But ahead of them is South Carolina at 103rd; even Vanderbilt, who we tend to think of as struggling so mightily, is 91st. Last year the Commodores were 169th. In 2019 they were 155th. In 2017 LSU was 172nd; Auburn was 189th in Bruce Pearl’s second season, Missouri 192nd in 2015, and Mississippi State spent 2013 and 2014 in the 200s. You get the idea.

Even the “bad” teams in this league have much more of a pulse this year, and almost everyone has at least the makings of a good coach. We’re a long way from the kind of struggles Johnny Jones, Kim Anderson, Rick Ray, Tony Barbee, etc. faced just a few short years ago. In fact, three of those schools are going to make the NCAA Tournament this year, and the fourth has Ben Howland.

It could make for an amazing SEC Tournament, where I don’t think you’d be totally surprised if any of eight different teams won it, or if Alabama simply finished the job. But it should be a point of pride no matter what your team does in Nashville, including the Vols. The league is better than we’ve probably been giving it credit for, and having a chance to earn a double bye in its tournament is no small feat. We’ll see how it all plays out for everyone in the NCAA Tournament, but SEC Basketball continues to move in the right direction, and that’s good news for everyone.

It’s March, which means we’re just a handful of days from brackets, which means we’re just another handful of days from, “Every team in the tournament loses except one.” What we can say for sure about Tennessee’s season on March 2 is that they will make the NCAA Tournament, and they will lose at some point unless they win it all.

I don’t know if we’re allowed to dream that big around here, since we’re still looking for our first trip to the Final Four. A visit to the Elite Eight would only be our second. Since the turn of the century, the Vols have made the Sweet 16 six times; not bad for a program with zero appearances in the 64-team field in years that started with 19__. For the most part, there’s only heartbreak from there: the last five minutes against North Carolina, a 20-point halftime lead against Ohio State, a charge call against Michigan, and Ryan (Fulmerzied) Cline. Only once – even with one of the program’s best teams in 2008 – did the Vols just get straight up beaten by a better opponent, the way it might happen if the Vols land on the 4/5 line in a region with Gonzaga, Baylor, or Michigan this year. And only once, now 11 years ago, did the Vols break through.

If they get that far this time, it’ll be a success. If they’re upset in round one, it’ll be a disappointment. Everything else, at this point, feels a little fuzzy.

This is the year for fuzziness.

It’s a better option than last year, when the Vols won at Rupp Arena 364 days ago then everyone’s season was cancelled nine days later. Presence beats absence. But this year’s presence is confusing, and not just because most of us haven’t been there to see it in person. These Vols started 7-0, capped with a 20-point win in a Top 15 showdown at Missouri. Then they went to 10-1 (4-1), beaten only by an Alabama team it turns out is pretty good, especially good when they hit 10-of-20 from the arc.

Since then, of course, they’re 6-6. After winning at Rupp again on February 6, the Vols have won every Wednesday and lost every Saturday (which is unfortunate considering there is no Wednesday game this week). What seemed like very real conversations on earning a number one seed and winning the SEC have given way to the giant shrug emoji.

It is perhaps this team’s greatest achievement: they played so well early on they made us forget what should be the biggest given in a pandemic year. How dare we expect consistency?

Except they had it, until they didn’t.

Soon, this season is going to end. Perhaps they’ll rebound and beat Florida they way they’ve rebounded, for at least one game, after almost every loss. Maybe they’ll make a run it what should be a l-o-a-d-e-d SEC Tournament, which would be really fun; maybe they’ll last one day due to the aforementioned loadedness. And truly, you’d believe most anything about their NCAA Tournament fate right now.

Either way, this thing will be over soon. I don’t have the answers any more than Rick Barnes or anyone else does. Maybe it’ll end with success. Maybe it’ll end with more disappointment.

But before any of that happens, in the middle of this week with no game to play, a word of thanks.

These guys go through God knows what to play. Covid testing, restrictions and regulations, and a very different life than they experienced or imagined in being part of Tennessee basketball. I know they wanted to play; I know it’s in the immediate financial interests of a couple of them to have done so. Even so, I’m grateful they’ve been here twice a week.

This was something that maybe never had a chance to be properly expressed during the football season. In a pandemic, inconsistent should be the norm: witness Penn State or LSU in football, or Duke and Kentucky in basketball. The fall we experienced was a lot of things, but inconsistent failed to be among them. Losing to Kentucky the way we did skipped a number of conversations, and there was never a chance to go back to them when the Vols couldn’t follow up with a win to stop the snowball’s roll. And, rightfully so, then we had to have the big picture conversations about the coach and the program and an investigation, all things this basketball season should happily avoid even if the Vols don’t win another game.

But in the midst of all that, too, were football players facing tests and isolation and loss, in more ways than one. And they wanted to play, and since they last played several have decided it’s in their bests interests to play elsewhere. It was almost impossible to be grateful for last season. But I am grateful they tried to play.

In basketball, it’s worth pointing to the future from here, before this team’s ultimate March fate is decided. Another five star is on the way, John Fulkerson might be back, there is much to be excited about beyond just this season. That’ll be true if they get bounced in round one or break back through to the Elite Eight. The one will still be disappointing and the other will still be celebrated.

But either way, for all the frustration that comes with inconsistency, I’m so grateful they’ve been here this season.

I have no idea what they’re going to do in March. But I can suggest simply enjoying it, for as long as it lasts.

Go Vols.

Tennessee needs that game with Florida to be rescheduled. Otherwise, what’s left for the Vols – at Vanderbilt, at Auburn, and a possible reschedule at South Carolina – provides little in the way of opportunity but plenty in the way of potholes on the road. In the 28 brackets released after the loss to Kentucky in the Bracket Matrix, Tennessee’s average seed is 5.14. The five line is perilous in its own right, where you’ll face some of the best mid-major teams in the nation as 12 seeds. It also puts you in the potential path of Gonzaga or Baylor in the Sweet 16. But if the Vols don’t get another chance at a quality win via the Gators, I’m not sure if they can get back to the three line without winning the SEC Tournament.

It’s a different set of conversations than the ones we were having at 10-1 (4-1) on January 16, when Tennessee’s only loss was to a hot-shooting and surging Alabama team and the Vols were ranked sixth in both AP and KenPom. Since then Tennessee is 5-5, and it’s been weird along the way.

For instance: one of the biggest questions we had with this team, full of freshmen and absent Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden, was who takes the big shot at the end of games? Turns out, we haven’t really needed that answer. Through 21 games, the Vols have played just two one-possession contests: a 56-53 win over Mississippi State, and a 52-50 loss at Ole Miss.

I went back through each of Tennessee’s nine (soon to be 10) NCAA Tournament teams in the last 15 years. They averaged seven one-possession (or overtime) games per year, and only Cuonzo Martin’s last team (four) and Bruce Pearl’s first team (two) played less than six. True to form, things get harder as you get into March: plenty of those teams added multiple one-possession games in the NCAA Tournament. Pearl’s first team played no one-possession games until a March 1 loss to Kentucky in Knoxville, then Chris Lofton’s shot over Winthrop.

So there’s still time to find some answers to that question, but so far the 2021 Vols have won comfortably or lost uncomfortably. Add “very” in many cases. With 2-4 SEC games to play, the Vols have five conference wins by 10+ points. Among those recent Tennessee tournament teams, only 2008 (8), 2014 (9), and 2019 (12) had more in the regular season.

And, with 2-4 SEC games to play, the Vols have three conference losses by 10+ points. Among those recent Tennessee tournament teams, only 2007 and 2010 had more (four each).

The 2021 Vols have three 10+ point wins over KenPom Top 50 opponents (Missouri, Kansas, Kentucky). Only 2007 (4) and 2019 (5) had more. The 2008 team only had one. The Elite Eight squad two years later only had two.

It’s not all bad with this team, not at all. There’s just not much middle right now. Through some combination of covid, freshmen, and just this team, Tennessee either plays really well or really not. This, of course, is a recipe for losing in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. So along with stringing together a few wins against Vanderbilt, Auburn, and South Carolina, you’d also like to see this team beat two good teams in a row in the SEC Tournament. I thought Rick Barnes’ quote after Kentucky when asked if this team didn’t handle adversity well was a good one:

“I don’t know if I would say they don’t handle adversity. I don’t think they’ve handled success very well. When you feel like you’re getting things going, you feel like we’re turning the corner — that shows up more, I think if you saw practice, you would see some of that. But I would say this too: That goes back to really leadership within the framework of what we’re trying to do. Some of that, we talked about, has got to come from within the players. I would say more (than) the adversity, I don’t think we’ve handled success very well. I really don’t.

The Vols need to get healthy, for sure. They may not have a ton of opportunities left to build their resume, but they can certainly level out in the good way.

The Vols improved to 15-5 (8-5) with a 93-73 win over South Carolina late Wednesday night, a welcome offensive explosion via Victor Bailey’s seven threes and a return to form from John Fulkerson. It’s Kentucky next (1:00 PM Saturday CBS); the Cats have won two straight close games over Auburn and Vanderbilt to break a 1-7 skid. But the advantage should still belong to the Vols, who will look for their ninth win in 14 tries under Rick Barnes in the series.

This is normally when we enter the “last ten games” conversation, but that number is cut in half in 2021. For a season that has felt its share of ups and downs, some historical Tennessee context is helpful to frame this team as it moves toward the tournament.

In KenPom, the 2021 Vols are still in the tier below the 2019 squad. That’s no crime, considering the 2019 Vols put up the best number in program history (26.24) and would be a three-point favorite over anyone else that’s worn orange. But the current team is right in the thick of the conversation of who’s next best:

• 2008: 22.17
• 2014: 23.69
• 2018: 22.27
• 2021: 22.31

Those four plus the 2019 squad are the only Tennessee teams to finish above 20 in KenPom, which goes back to 2002. While the 2008 squad was generally a machine until running into Louisville in the Sweet 16, Cuonzo’s last team and Rick Barnes’ SEC Championship squad knew their share of frustrations in the regular season. If 2021 feels up and down, know it’s still in very good company as far as Tennessee goes.

Here are Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament teams in the last 15 years through their first 20 games:

Year	First 20	Seed	Result
2006	17-3 (8-1)	2	Round Two
2007	14-6 (2-3)	5	Sweet 16
2008	18-2 (5-1)	2	Sweet 16
2009	13-7 (4-2)	9	Round One
2010	16-4 (4-2)	6	Elite Eight
2011	13-7 (3-2)	9	Round One
2014	13-7 (4-3)	Dayton	Sweet 16
2018	15-5 (5-3)	3	Round Two
2019	19-1 (7-0)	2	Sweet 16
2021	15-5 (8-5)	TBD	TBD

While some of Tennessee’s best teams have been better than 15-5 through their first 20, the early SEC returns in 2010, 2014, and 2018 are similar to what we’ve seen so far. And the 2021 Vols have been particularly good at avoiding bad losses. Ole Miss is sneaking into Next Four Out conversations at the Bracket Matrix, and Tennessee’s other four defeats are all NCAA Tournament teams.

By contrast, the 2007 Vols lost six of eight from mid-January to early February, some of which came while Chris Lofton was out with a sprained ankle. But those six defeats included a loss at Auburn, who finished 17-15. The 2010 Vols infamously lost by 22 at USC in December, and by 15 at Georgia at the end of a seven-game winning streak. And if you were around seven years ago, you don’t need the details on Cuonzo Martin’s last season, featuring a pair of losses by four points (and one overtime) to Texas A&M, KenPom #110.

Barnes’ first tournament team in 2018 made their big splash by winning at Rupp Arena on February 6, improving to 18-5 (8-3). They were promptly blown out in Tuscaloosa by 28 four days later, and lost at Georgia by 11 the following Saturday. It happens; maybe it’ll happen to this team later, though later is getting thin. But so far, so good on the 2021 Vols generally taking care of their business.

Inconsistency will continue to be a talking point until it isn’t, and it may not get there with freshmen + covid. Perhaps Tennessee’s win/loss ceiling and NCAA seed possibilities have been diminished from what we thought in mid-January. But the Vols are among very good company in KenPom, don’t lose to bad teams, and may still find some of their best basketball ahead of them. And if they can get Kentucky again, we’ll find ourselves feeling quite good about Tennessee.

Go Vols.

I don’t think the highs and lows quite qualify as a roller coaster, but Tennessee’s basketball season is definitely on a winding road. The hope, of course, is that this thing is still going up the mountain: the Vols were the 11th-best team in college basketball in the eyes of the selection committee on Saturday, before the loss to LSU. That followed a pair of statement wins over Kansas and at Kentucky the previous two Saturdays. It remains incredibly important this year to earn at least a #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, ensuring you avoid Gonzaga and Baylor until at least the Elite Eight. The Zags, in particular, would now be at least an eight-point favorite over any team in the nation that isn’t Baylor via KenPom. And Baylor would be at least -5.5 on the non-Gonzaga field.

Despite what those two are accomplishing, inconsistency is still generally the theme. It comes with covid, and it comes with freshmen, though Tennessee’s most recent struggles have come from everyone else’s contributions while Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer move to the front. The Vols also have health issues, as Yves Pons was clearly at less than 100% at LSU and UT’s defense suffered for it.

Still, the Vols are third nationally in KenPom defense, and the schedule should provide some opportunity for retooling. A second date with Florida needs to be rescheduled, but the Gators represent the only NCAA Tournament team left on Tennessee’s schedule. The Vols’ five SEC losses – all Quad 1 – currently leave them in fifth place in the league, but KenPom projects them to fall just once more, with six losses good enough to finish tied for second.

The schedule should help. How can the Vols help themselves?

The good news: I don’t think we’re far away, and I don’t think we’re done getting better.

Points

• When UT scores 65 or fewer points: 3-5
• When UT scores 66+ points: 11-0

Offense is definitely the greater challenge, and while the freshmen have been good, this is still a work in progress. But when your defense is this good, this is the simplest way to explain it: so far, when the Vols score 66 points, they win.

Early on, Tennessee was able to beat Colorado (now #14 KenPom!) with just 56 points. That’s also how the Vols escaped against Mississippi State.

This number won’t do it alone: in four of Tennessee’s five losses, 66 points wouldn’t have been enough. Alabama, Florida, Missouri, and LSU all scored in the 70s. But it’s a good starting point for success. And what’s been the most effective way the Vols have scored points?

Free Throws

• When UT shoots 65% or less at the line: 1-4
• When UT shoots 66% or better at the line: 13-1

Tennessee leads the SEC in free throw rate. The freshmen both excel at drawing contact, and it’s still one of John Fulkerson’s real strengths as well. Throughout the year, getting to the line has been the steadying play for a struggling offense.

But you have to make them when you get there. In losses:

• Alabama: 17-of-26 (65.4%)
• Florida: 12-of-25 (48%)
• Missouri: 13-of-21 (61.9%)
• Ole Miss: 10-of-16 (62.5%)
• LSU: 13-of-17 (76.5%)

So not the problem on the Bayou, but problematic everywhere else in defeat. I’m sure there’s a confidence factor that comes into play here too. The freshmen are the team’s best at getting to the line, but the worst among regular contributors once there: Springer is okay at 75%, but Johnson just 68.9%.

In part, I think what happened at LSU is you had a physical game with few whistles. That’ll happen again. The Vols have to figure out how to respond when they can’t get it at the line, and will continue to be vulnerable if they don’t take advantage when there.

If you really want to lean into the team’s strengths:

Forcing Turnovers

• When UT’s opponent has 13 or fewer turnovers: 3-4
• When UT’s opponent has 14+ turnovers: 11-1

Just as getting to the line is the strength of the offense, turning it over continues to be the strength of the defense. The Vols are 18th nationally and second in the SEC in turnover rate, getting one on 23.1% of opponent possessions. The Vols can win without it: Kansas had a season-low seven turnovers and got waxed. The Ole Miss game continues to go in the weird category, the exception to the 14+ rule with 17 from the Rebels in their win.

But the others, all NCAA Tournament teams, had between 10-13 turnovers against the Vols. That jumps out to me, and can jump-start Tennessee’s offense if the Vols can get that going again.

When the Vols force turnovers, getting to 66 points shouldn’t be a problem because they generate offense, and 66 points should be enough. When it’s not, Tennessee needs to clean up its free throw shooting. Beyond that, there’s still plenty of room for offensive improvement. There’s also the notion that shots will still fall: for what it’s worth, Shot Quality has the Vols shooting 3.4% under their expected average from three, second-highest among ranked teams. That means a Tennessee team shooting 34% from the arc is getting good enough looks to be shooting 37%.

Maybe something like that will come around, maybe not. But if the Vols continue to force turnovers and clean it up at the line, Tennessee will create plenty of opportunities for themselves.

The committee will reveal their Top 16 this Saturday (12:30 PM CBS), a month and a day from Selection Sunday. As Wayne Staats points out, the original grouping usually holds up, for the most part. In 2018 the Vols were the top #4 seed in the first reveal, and ended up earning a #3 seed. In 2019 the Vols were the second #1 seed in the first reveal, and ended up just missing the top line as the top #2 seed.

With no geography involved this year, the individual team rankings will matter much more in the bracket (as in, the top #1 seed should be grouped with the bottom #2 seed, etc., with a few exceptions to keep the best teams from the same conferences separate). And for those dreaming of deep tournament runs, nothing matters more in 2021 than this: stay away from Gonzaga and Baylor.

The Zags and Bears are currently at least seven-point favorites against anyone else via KenPom; they’d be 12 point favorites against Tennessee. Earlier this year we talked about the value of earning one of the other #1 seeds to ensure you stayed away from those two. But as the Vols are looking to advance to just their second Elite Eight (and potentially the first Final Four), there’s still extreme value in staying off the #4 line, ensuring you wouldn’t see either of those two until at least the Elite Eight. If you get lucky and are placed in one of the other “regions”, great. But if not, at least you make some history before getting the chance to make even more against those two.

Outside the Zags and Bears, we expect the Top 16 to be dominated by the Big 10 & 12. Villanova and Houston would certainly have compelling cases, as does Virginia as the best of the ACC.

But the SEC is also making a strong case with its top three teams. In yesterday’s Bracket Matrix, Alabama was a #2 seed, with Missouri and Tennessee at #3. And in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology, the Vols and Tide are both on the #2 line, with Missouri at #5. And those three teams are finished playing each other in the regular season.

Getting three teams in the Top 16 on Selection Sunday would be a major win for the SEC, especially with no Kentucky in the mix. How far has the league come? Since expansion to 14 teams nearly ten years ago now, here’s how often the SEC has placed teams on the Top 4 lines in the NCAA Tournmament:

• 2013: Florida (3)
• 2014: Florida (1)
• 2015: Kentucky (1)
• 2016: Texas A&M (3), Kentucky (4)
• 2017: Kentucky (2), Florida (4)
• 2018: Tennessee (3), Auburn (4)
• 2019: Tennessee (2), Kentucky (2), LSU (3)

In fact, in the last played tournament two years ago, Auburn and Mississippi State just missed the Top 16, both on the #5 line.

While Arkansas and LSU try to stay on the right side of the bubble, don’t discount Florida either: the Gators are currently a #7 seed in the Bracket Matrix, but have games left with Arkansas, Missouri and, if rescheduled, Tennessee. The league should be able to get six teams in the field, but the three (maybe four) teams at the top can be about as good a group as we’ve seen since expansion. The league continues to trend in the right direction in basketball, and Tennessee continues to be a big part of it. Getting to a #3 seed or higher means your season doesn’t end via Gonzaga or Baylor without making some history first. And with Saturday’s performance still fresh in our minds, Tennessee’s expanding ceiling suggests they’ll very much belong in the Top 16.

Tonight was 20 minutes of everything you hate about Rupp Arena, then eight minutes of a really good basketball game, then 12 minutes of absolute joy.

If you watched, you don’t need much analysis on the foul situation early. Six Tennessee players had two fouls in the first half, including John Fulkerson in less than three minutes. Kentucky shot 13-of-15 at the line by halftime and built a 42-34 lead, the most points any team scored on the nation’s number one defense in any half this year. Different Rupp, same -erees.

Which just made it all the more fun to win anyway.

The Vols and Cats traded blows to open the second half, with what felt like a thousand possessions where one team would score and the other answered immediately. This time Tennessee found its way to the bonus early, but was still down 10 with 12 minutes to go. It seemed like the game had settled into a really nice flow.

And then it became one-way traffic.

Down ten with 12 to play, the Vols tied it up in less than three minutes. Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer hit four free throws around a score from Keon, then Yves Pons scored twice inside to tie it.

Keon again gave Tennessee the lead, then that really good basketball game broke out again for a minute. Kentucky scored four straight to retake the lead, then Keon Johnson did this:

Keon Johnson having himself a coming out party tonight for Tennessee. pic.twitter.com/SeNWlECrUA

— Trey Wallace (@TreyWallace_) February 7, 2021

He tried it again a minute later in a tie game, but was rejected on a sensational play by Davion Mintz. No worries: right back to Keon, who was fouled again, and knocked down two to put the Vols back in front 66-64 with 6:27 to play.

They wouldn’t trail again.

In a role reversal from Tuesday night in Oxford, Kentucky’s guards turned it over on consecutive possessions, and Tennessee suddenly had a six point lead. And with so much talk about the offense tonight – rightfully so – Tennessee’s defense kept Kentucky on 64 points for more than four minutes down the stretch. When the Cats cut it to eight with 1:54 to go, the Vols drained the shot clock, and Keon Johnson found Santiago Vescovi, who buried a three.

If you didn’t see it, just watch the last 12 minutes on a loop. From down 58-48 at that point, Tennessee closed on a 34-13 run to win by 11.

And if you didn’t see it, I’m not sure my or anyone’s words could do justice to what we saw from the freshmen tonight.

Fulkerson played less than three minutes in the first half and ten in the game with four fouls. He didn’t score, though he got plenty at Rupp last year. Vescovi’s dagger three? His only points. Yves, who hit those two big shots inside to bring it back even at the seven minute mark? Those were four of his six points.

Credit Victor Bailey for hitting enough shots to prevent a rout in the first half, where Tennessee also got some quality minutes from E.J. Anosike and Uros Plavsic. Credit Josiah-Jordan James for his first double-double, 10 points and 10 boards.

And when you envisioned what two five stars might do in the lineup at the same time? Tonight was that night.

After Pons scored back-to-back to tie it at 58-58, Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer scored Tennessee’s next 18 points. That’s everything from tie game to Vescovi’s dagger.

Jaden Springer had 23 points, five rebounds, and three blocks. Keon Johnson had 27 points, four rebounds, and three assists. Springer hit one three. Keon didn’t hit any. Go to the rim, baby. (And hit free throws, where a sometimes unsteady Keon hit 9-of-11.)

I said earlier I didn’t think anything about the Ole Miss loss changed my view of Tennessee’s ceiling, though it certainly made me look twice at the floor.

This tonight was a ceiling win.

There are seven games left (eight if they reschedule South Carolina), and if they’re over their own covid issues, Florida will present an immediate second opinion Wednesday night in Knoxville. There’s still more to see. But if what Tennessee got from its freshmen tonight can be duplicated, that ceiling might need some work. And if those freshmen become reliable first and second options, it might also help John Fulkerson’s game re-establish itself.

There’s more to watch, but tonight might’ve been the only chance to see Johnson and Springer at Rupp Arena. If so, “Remember that time those two freshmen had their coming out party?” goes right alongside, “Remember that time Fulkerson scored 27 up there?” Because now, after winning four times in Lexington in the first 40 years of Rupp Arena, the Vols have won three of the last four. And Rick Barnes is 8-5 against Kentucky at Tennessee.

It’s a weird year, new football coach, basketball team lost more games than you thought they might’ve to this point. But you don’t miss any chance to celebrate beating Kentucky. Once upon a time, in many of our lifetimes, we beat Alabama seven years in a row in football. This, in my lifetime, is as good as it’s every been against our biggest rival in basketball. Don’t miss it. Don’t waste it. Celebrate it, and then let’s get them again two weeks from today.

And that ceiling…you might want to look again.

Go Vols.

What we’re seeing from Tennessee right now is something we might’ve predicted at the start of the season, but a 10-1 flurry with the lone loss to hot-shooting Alabama made us believers in something more. Our program has little experience playing multiple freshmen heavy minutes, and mostly zero when two potential first round picks are asked to carry this kind of load offensively.

Rick Barnes probably knows what to expect in this situation from Texas. When his Longhorns asked big things from multiple freshmen, they tended to hit speed bumps along the way:

• 2014 (Isaiah Taylor, Martez Walker): Started 20-5, finished 3-6. Lost in the second round as a 7 seed to 2 seed Michigan.
• 2011 (Cory Joseph, Tristan Thompson): Started 23-3, finished 4-4. Lost by one point in the second round as a 4 seed to 5 seed Arizona.
• 2010 (J’Covan Brown, Avery Bradley, Jordan Hamilton): Started 17-0, finished 7-9. Lost in overtime in the first round as an 8 seed.
• 2007 (Kevin Durant, D.J. Augustin, Damion James, Justin Mason): Started 13-3, finished 11-6. Lost in the second round as a 4 seed to 5 seed USC.

Obviously there’s no Kevin Durant on this team, but that’s the kind of “inconsistency” you’d like to see: maybe not going to rampage through the regular season the way you thought they would early, but still plenty of big wins along the way so there’s not a before/after or, “And then they hit the wall,” moment.

What we hoped the Vols would have sorted out by the time they hit mid-January has carried through the most challenging part of their schedule into February. I don’t think Tennessee or its freshmen have hit any kind of wall – recall the 19-point win over Kansas six days ago – but they’re also clearly not done figuring themselves out, especially as more is being asked from the freshmen. Consistency is the current challenge.

The loss at Ole Miss didn’t do much to change my thoughts on Tennessee’s ceiling: the Vols played quite poorly down the stretch on offense, had an unusually high number of turnovers, and credit Ole Miss for hitting some big shots. A close road loss like that didn’t ding the Vols much in the advanced metrics. But it is the first time Tennessee lost to anything other than a really good team, which at least makes you wonder about Tennessee’s floor.

Via KenPom, the Vols are still the best defensive team in the nation, and school history. That part hasn’t suffered in these losses. But if Tennessee runs into an on-fire opponent (Alabama) or scores 49 (Florida) or 50 (Ole Miss) points on its own end, the Vols are clearly vulnerable. And the Rebels getting it done shows that vulnerability can be present before we get to the second weekend of the tournament.

In Oxford, Keon Johnson’s 27 minutes were the most he’s played in a game that Jaden Springer finished, and Springer’s 31 were a season high. All of Tennessee’s previous losses came when Springer was hurt, then Tuesday night he had his worst outing of the year: 1-of-7, 0-of-2 at the line, three turnovers, two points. That’ll happen to freshmen; let’s see a little more data with both of those guys playing big minutes, but it’s another argument for how valuable their ability to get their own shots and empower Tennessee’s offense is.

Speaking of vulnerability, tomorrow night it’s Rupp Arena. Kentucky is 5-11 (4-5) and has lost at home to Richmond, Notre Dame, and Alabama this year. In addition to the usual, the Cats make me nervous because they’re 352nd nationally in KenPom’s luck ratings: some of their losses have come from teams shooting wildly higher percentages than they’re accustomed to. It’s super frustrating to be a fan of one of these “bad luck” teams (see Cuonzo’s 2014 squad, 341st in luck), but they’re also the kind of teams that can still blow you out of the water when things do start falling their way (see also Cuonzo’s 2014 squad).

You’ll want to watch the whistles in this one, but where Tennessee is most likely to thrive is via turnovers: the Cats’ young guards have struggled mightily at times here, Tennessee’s defense is one of the best in the land at it, and Kentucky’s defense doesn’t force many on the other end.

And, of course, it’s Rupp. Tennessee’s thrilling come-from-behind win there last year lost some of its luster because it happened on March 3, and we stopped playing sports altogether ten days later. But if the Vols win tomorrow, it’ll be three wins in four years in Lexington. From 1977-2017, the Vols won there four times. And in this case, a W would make it four-of-five against Kentucky overall.

You throw a lot out this year with the pandemic, making it harder to understand both Kentucky’s struggles and Tennessee’s quest for consistency. Alabama is running away with the regular season league title and on track to earn their own one seed. From there, the Vols are one of five teams (Arkansas, Florida, LSU, Missouri) projected to finish with six or seven SEC losses via KenPom. Two of those teams won’t earn a double bye in the SEC Tournament. But that crowded field is also establishing itself well in the NCAA Tournament:

• February 4 Bracket Matrix: Alabama 2, Tennessee 3, Missouri 4, Florida 7, Arkansas 11, LSU 11
• February 5 Torvik Predictive Bracketology: Alabama 1, Tennessee 3, Missouri 5, Florida 6, Arkansas 8, LSU 10

The league’s top tier is still quite strong, and Tennessee is right in the thick of it. And the long game in college basketball this year is still about Gonzaga, Baylor, then everybody else. So there is extreme value in earning at least a three seed, meaning you wouldn’t see either of those teams until the Elite Eight at the earliest.

In some ways, we’ll still measure Tennessee by what they do against Kentucky, with a chance to make the kind of history at Rupp Arena that would’ve seemed absurd just four years ago. Overall, Tennessee is looking for more consistency, which means we won’t get all the answers tomorrow night. But if we get enough to beat Kentucky again, all will be quite well once more.

Saturday, 8:00 PM, ESPN. Go Vols.