Author Archives: Will Shelton

When you play from the 4/5 line, you run into three truths right away:

1. You’re probably going to play one of the best mid-majors in the nation in round one. That’s how, as the NCAA points out in their series on seed history, at least one 12 seed has beaten a five 30 of the last 35 years, and the 12s win 35.7% of the time overall.

…but thanks to bid thieves Georgetown and Oregon State, two of those top mid-major AQ slots fell to 13. And the Vols drew the weaker of the two thieves in Oregon State (KenPom #85 vs the #55 Hoyas).

2. Four and five seeds are projected to play the closest matchups in round two. That’s the nature of the beast. But this year’s S-curve has its imperfections, including Tennessee – the third-best five seed in the committee’s eyes – being paired with Oklahoma State, the third-best four seed.

https://twitter.com/NicoleAuerbach/status/1371232513369210881

On the seed list, there’s not a big difference between Purdue and Oklahoma State. In KenPom, it’s significant: the Boilers are 13th nationally, the Cowboys 30th. Other four seeds Virginia and Florida State are also in the KenPom Top 15. In short, if you believe in Mr. Pomeroy’s work, the Vols drew the weakest four seed. And we’ll all hold our breath with Cade Cunningham if we both get out of the first round, but Oklahoma State is a robust 298th in offensive turnover percentage…which is the very thing Tennessee’s defense does best, 14th nationally in defensive turnover percentage. Stay tuned.

3. You’re probably going to play one of the best teams in college basketball in the Sweet 16. Illinois would certainly qualify: third overall in KenPom, winners of seven straight including now Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State, Rutgers, Iowa, and Ohio State again in a row, all on the road or in the Big Ten Tournament. That’s stupid good. And don’t worry, I’ve got thousands of words to say about Sister Jean’s squad if they get it done instead; they too would be favored over Tennessee right now.

However, this year everyone who didn’t end up in Gonzaga’s region has to feel like a winner today. That’s not to say a loss to the Illini next week wouldn’t earn the same, “Well, we went as far as we could,” good game pat on the butt. But it’s a much more interesting conversation going in.

If you use the S-curve and the seed list, the Midwest Region is actually the easiest path for the top five seeds:

Gonzaga	1	Baylor	2	Illinois	3	Michigan	4
Iowa	7	Ohio State	6	Houston	8	Alabama	5
Kansas	12	Arkansas	9	West Virginia	10	Texas	11
Virginia	16	Purdue	14	Oklahoma St	15	Florida State	13
Creighton	17	Villanova	18	Tennessee	19	Colorado	20
Region Total	53		49		55		53

Tennessee has played from the 4/5 three times since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Jerry Green’s Vols did it twice in a row from #4 in 1999 and 2000: both times they avoided the worst case scenario, and both times met a disappointing end anyway. In ’99 the Vols beat 13-seed Delaware by ten in round one, rejoiced when Missouri State upset Wisconsin as a 12 seed…and then lost by 30 in round two. The next year, the Vols survived a feisty Rajun Cajuns squad in round one, then knocked off the defending champs from UConn in the 4/5 game in round two, earning the program’s first ever Sweet 16 appearance in the 64-team field. Madness dominated the region, as the top three seeds all went down the first weekend, leaving the four-seed Vols as the favorite to make the Final Four. They led eight-seed North Carolina by three possessions with five minutes to play…and lost. It went better than we thought it would, and then it hurt more than we thought it would.

Ditto seven years later with Bruce Pearl’s second squad: more than avoided the 5-12 upset by putting 121 points on Long Beach State, then gutted out a win over four-seed Virginia in round two. This time Goliath showed up for the Sweet 16 in the form of number one seed Ohio State at 32-3 (15-1). House money, we told ourselves. Then we were up 20 late in the first half. Then we lost at the buzzer. It went (a lot) better than we thought it would, and then it hurt (a lot) more than we thought it would.

The 4/5 line was the right, fair place to send this year’s Tennessee squad. And, if you’re going to play from here, on your paper bracket the Vols avoided the tough mid-major, have the most favorable option among the four seeds, and dodged the tournament’s largest bullet from Gonzaga. If you’re going to do it from here, it’s a good way to do it.

Everything with Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament fate will continue to start with the health and availability of John Fulkerson. But if he can’t go, Tennessee’s performance without him today against Alabama was incredibly encouraging.

Credit the Tide for their steadiness, even when down 15 with 17 to play. Alabama is relentless on both ends, and Tennessee matched them today. Two of the nation’s four best defenses didn’t disappoint: the Vols forced 17 turnovers, 19 for the Tide. It became only the second time this year Tennessee lost when forcing 14+, still not a bad sign considering the opponent and the newness.

Uros Plavsic played what had to be the most minutes of his career, and I thought did well considering. Davonte Gaines got a crunch-time defensive possession and aced it against Herbert Jones, then grabbed the rebound and got fouled. Don’t let his two missed free throws erase the reason he was on the line in the first place. We’re going to need him again before we’re done.

Tennessee’s only quality win without John Fulkerson scoring 10+ points before yesterday was at Rupp Arena, when the freshmen simply took over. It was the plan from the tip today: Keon Johnson had 20 points on 9-of-16 shooting, plus nine rebounds. Jaden Springer had 18 on 7-of-17 from the floor, plus four rebounds and three assists. And they each turned it over five times. Alabama’s defense is the ultimate test this year, and they each got some right and got some wrong.

And there was no better available practice in Nashville overall than the Tide, and the Vols were still close enough to get one more exam: a game-on-the-line offensive possession, rare for this team that’s only played a pair of one-possession games all year. Victor Bailey rushed a three that didn’t come close with nine seconds still on the clock. Again, better to work that stuff out this week than next.

What of the bracket? The 4/5 line feels like a safe bet, which means you’re going to catch some of the best mid-majors or a team from “Dayton” in round one. Tennessee hasn’t played from there since 2007, so it’ll probably be a more interesting first round experience than what we’re used to.

But the Vols have to feel better about themselves, with and without Fulkerson, than when they came to Nashville. And after a rough go of it in February and early March, the Vols have now put together three really good games in a row against teams that should be seeded eight or higher in the NCAA Tournament, and Bama may still flirt with a one seed. That’s good to know, because that’s exactly who you’ll see in the Sweet 16 from 4/5 if chalk holds.

All that will come. For now:

#Vols coach Rick Barnes: I’m really proud of our guys. They’re excited about next week, and they should be. We’ve got a good team.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) March 13, 2021

And that can be true whether Fulkerson plays or not, it seems. The Vols weren’t overly fortunate today – 7-of-21 from the arc, 41.7% from the floor – but made Alabama work for everything on the other end. The defense truly is good enough to be there every night, and it won’t be Bama every night from here.

At the end of a long year, the old dancing shoes still feel good on our feet. Where to next?

Go Vols.

John Fulkerson is officially out…

Due to facial injuries sustained Friday, John Fulkerson has been ruled out for the remainder of the SEC Tournament.

— Tennessee Basketball (@Vol_Hoops) March 13, 2021

…which makes this a good time to point out that not only is Rick Barnes 8-6 against Kentucky, he’s 7-2 against Florida.

Moving forward, let’s start with Alabama. In the first game against the Tide, Jaden Springer got hurt after playing just five minutes, and Yves Pons sat most of the first half with two fouls. The result was lineup Wheel of Fortune: E.J. Anosike played 10 minutes, Olivier Nkamhoua played four, Drew Pember three, Davonte Gaines one. With no Fulkerson, we know the Vols can play Pons at the five and Josiah at the four, probably even when Bama puts Herbert Jones and Jordan Bruner on the court together. I’ll be curious to see if they also try the four-guard lineup with Vescovi, Bailey, the freshmen, and Pons. But either way, somebody else is going to have to play today, and possibly beyond.

Nkamhoua hasn’t played more than four minutes since the home loss to Kentucky on February 20. Anosike hasn’t played more than three minutes since the Georgia win on February 10. Can Davonte Gaines get in the mix? Who can give the Vols something off the bench in the short and long term?

I’d imagine Fulkerson’s status for the NCAA Tournament won’t be disclosed in a way that will impact Tennessee’s seeding. The Vols were on the five line in yesterday’s Bracket Matrix, and not all of those brackets took Villanova’s loss into account. Over at Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology the Vols are a four, with Tennessee’s Teamcast leaving them as the final four seed with a loss today, the final two seed by beating Alabama then Arkansas, and a three seed in any other Sunday scenario. My best guess would be anything from 3-5 at this point.

To that end, here’s what to watch for today, with seeds from the March 12 Bracket Matrix – you want the team in bold to lose:

• Alabama vs Tennessee (5) – 1:00 PM – SEC Network
• Arkansas vs LSU – 3:30 PM – SEC Network
• Houston (2) vs Memphis – 5:30 PM – ESPN2
• Oklahoma State (3) vs Texas (3) – 6:00 PM – ESPN
• Creighton (5) vs Georgetown – 6:30 PM – Fox
• Florida State (5) vs Georgia Tech – 8:30 PM – ESPN
• Colorado (6) vs Oregon State – 10:30 PM – ESPN

The Buffaloes, of course, are a former Vol opponent, but at this point I think the loss would be more helpful to Tennessee’s seed. There are also great games between teams the Vols shouldn’t pass in the field in the Big Ten semifinals.

We’ll have to wait on Fulkerson’s health to really dive into NCAA Tournament expectations. But if you’re curious how far they might go without him, playing Alabama today can be a blessing in disguise. Get your feet wet before it costs you the whole season…and make no mistake, Alabama is the deep end. Let’s see how well we can swim.

Beat Bama.

The big picture conversation here will be John Fulkerson: first, his health as we assume he’s in concussion protocol. Second, what that will mean for the Vols against Alabama tomorrow and next week in the NCAA Tournament. The Vols got some good minutes from Uros Plavsic to help on Colin Castleton even before Fulkerson went down today; someone, whether Plavsic, Olivier Nkamhoua, or E.J. Anosike seems likely to have to give Tennessee something against at least the Tide tomorrow.

The Vols were up nine at halftime, and nine with 17 minutes to play when Fulkerson went down. They did a good job handling that moment, immediately pushing it to 13 off the flagrant two foul, and getting it to 17 two minutes later off a Santiago Vescovi three. Florida cut it to eight for one possession at 11:00, and otherwise trailed by double digits the rest of the way. Credit Tennessee for handling everything well before, during, and after Fulky went down.

This game was a great example of Tennessee’s defense making such a huge difference, even when the other team is making shots. Florida hit 10-of-24 (41.7%) from three, 16-of-18 at the line, and Tre Mann scored 30 points. But it never really mattered, because the Vols forced 16 turnovers, moving to 15-1 when they force 14+ on the year. And Tennessee blocked eleven shots, a school record nine of which belonged to Yves Pons, who tied the SEC Tournament record. If he blocks just three shots tomorrow, he’ll move into the top five for a single SEC Tournament.

Meanwhile, the Vols hit nine threes of their own on a surprising 25 attempts, cleaned it up some at the free throw line (13-of-18), and most importantly, they got it from everywhere. Uros got a deuce in his short stint. Fulkerson had eight before he left. Vescovi with 14, the freshmen with 13 each, 11 from Pons, 10 from Josiah, 7 from Bailey. I mean, look at these lines:

• Pons: 11 points, 8 rebounds, 9 blocks
• Vescovi: 14 points, 5 assists
• Keon: 13 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists
• Springer: 13 points, 4 rebounds, 3 steals
• Josiah: 10 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists

That’s three guys who flirted with a double-double, and Pons almost had the big man triple-double.

A historical note we’ll keep making: after running to the tournament finals with Allan Houston in 1991, the Vols never even made it to Saturday from 1992-2007. Now the Vols will play in the semifinals for the seventh time in the last 13 years, still in pursuit of their first SEC Tournament title since 1979.

It’s only Bama next. After their performance today, it feels like an opportunity game more than anything, and one the Vols will likely have to chase without their senior leader. You can never be sure with the selection committee, but I feel like the Vols have played their way into the “no worse than a five seed,” conversation. It can only go up from here.

And more than anything, Tennessee found a new rhythm in beating the Gators back-to-back, breaking out of their late-season rut and playing some of their best basketball today, even when Florida was shooting it so well. We’ll see how far that can take them, plus or minus Fulkerson, tomorrow and beyond.

Go Vols.

What will happen when the Vols and Gators meet for the third time today? Who knows. No Jaden Springer the first time, and the Vols got rolled 75-49. No Tre Mann the second time, and the Vols turned a 14-point deficit into an 11-point win as Florida made just three shots in the final 17:30. Everyone should be firing on all cylinders today…which hopefully includes Tennessee, after going 3-of-18 from the arc in Gainesville and 3-of-21 in Knoxville last week. And the Vols went 12-of-25 at the line the first time and just 8-of-13 the second time. The room for improvement is definitely still on Tennessee’s side.

The Vols are hovering right on the 5/6 line in the Bracket Matrix. Yesterday’s matrix had a strong consensus on the Top 11 teams in the field, including Arkansas, West Virginia, and Kansas on the three line. But there was a big drop in average seed from there to the final number three seed: Villanova, who then lost to Georgetown. If the matrix holds, that should mean a tight field from the last number three seed down through the first two number six seeds: eleven teams that could go anywhere from 3-6. In yesterday’s order with all seeds from the Bracket Matrix:

• #3 Villanova (lost to Georgetown)
• #4 Oklahoma State (beat #3 West Virginia yesterday, vs #1 Baylor 6:30 PM ESPN)
• #4 Texas (beat #6 Texas Tech yesterday, vs #3 Kansas 9:30 PM ESPN2)
• #4 Purdue (vs #2 Ohio State 2:00 PM Big Ten Network)
• #4 Virginia (vs Georgia Tech 6:30 PM ESPN2)
• #5 Florida State (vs North Carolina 9:00 PM ESPN)
• #5 USC (vs #6 Colorado 11:30 PM ESPN)
• #5 Creighton (vs UCONN 9:00 PM Fox Sports 1)
• #5 Tennessee (vs Florida 2:30 PM SEC Network)
• #6 Texas Tech (lost to #4 Texas)
• #6 Colorado (vs #5 USC 11:30 PM ESPN)

In such a tight field from 3-6, the Vols remain in a situation where every game could be worth a seed. Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology has the Vols as the second #5 seed right now, and their Tennessee Teamcast sends the Vols anywhere to the #6 line with a loss today to the #3 line just by making to to Sunday via Alabama and facing either Arkansas or LSU. Again, the windows are tight, and wins are really valuable this week.

How do the Vols get there? What represents Tennessee’s best basketball as we enter postseason play?

Defense is a given: the Vols are fourth nationally in KenPom’s defensive efficiency, and at the moment still the best Tennessee defense of the KenPom era, with those stats stretching back to 1997. It suffers when Yves Pons or Josiah James leave the floor, so staying out of foul trouble remains key. But Tennessee’s defense is also the best way to unlock the secrets of Tennessee’s offense:

Forcing Turnovers: 14-1 when forcing 14+

The most magical of Tennessee’s numbers. Forcing turnovers is the thing Tennessee’s defense does best, 16th nationally and first in the SEC in turnover percentage. When the half-court stuff breaks down, the Vols can still get it by creating transition opportunities here.

The Vols lost a Quad 1 win in this morning’s NET ratings when the Gators slipped to 31st overall. Tennessee is likely to have six Quad 1 wins regardless of today’s outcome: either beat Florida to get it back, or lose to the Gators but get the one in Knoxville back as they climb up the ratings. To get to seven, they’ll have to win Saturday.

The point is, three of Tennessee’s five current Quad 1 wins featured the most turnovers the Vols have created this season: 22 against Colorado, 20 at Missouri, 20 vs Arkansas (via sports-reference). Tennessee’s lone loss at 14+ is at Ole Miss, where 17 turnovers couldn’t overcome a bunch of weirdness.

Can they win without it? Yes: the Vols got 13 at Rupp, so right on the line. But if you want the, “What if they just made shots,” experiment, that’s Kansas: 53% from the floor, 8-of-13 from the arc, 16-of-17 at the line. If that kind of shooting performance shows up this week or beyond, the Vols will beat anyone not named Gonzaga. The Jayhawks turned it over just seven times and lost by 19 points. They’re 9-2 with an overtime loss and a 13-point win over Baylor since then. If the Vols can’t force turnovers, they need shots to fall to win.

Get to the line (and make them): 87-of-131 (66%) in losses

Again, if the half-court offense isn’t working, get to the line. The Vols are a good free-throw shooting team overall (74.5%, 62nd nationally), and led the SEC in free throw rate. It’s the thing a herky-jerky offense does best.

But in four of Tennessee’s losses (Alabama, Florida, Missouri, Ole Miss), the Vols missed 36 free throws. And at Auburn, Tennessee got to the line for just ten attempts.

Part of getting there means relying on how the game is being officiated; some of Tennessee’s worst basketball would then come from Pons and Josiah getting in foul trouble but the Vols not getting those calls on the other end. It’s a little more reliant on officiating than you’d like.

An important, freshman-related sub-plot here: Jaden Springer is probably the most underrated component of Tennessee’s offense. He’s 82nd nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, shoots 80.4% at the line, and is 18-of-39 (46.2%) from three, even though he doesn’t always take them. It might be a little late in the game to get more threes from him into the offense, but having him go to the rim is a big part of what Tennessee already does well. Keon Johnson does it really well too, 111th nationally in fouls drawn per 40. But the Vols are 16-3 when Keon takes less than 12 shots, 1-4 when he takes 12 or more. That’s not Keon’s fault, that’s the, “Nothing else is working, Keon do something,” offense showing up. The one in that 1-4 is Rupp Arena, but I don’t think Kentucky (or any of us) were prepared for what happened that night, and had a good bit to do with our next main point.

Can they win without it? They just did: only 8-of-13 at the line against the Gators, but that matters less when the other team simply can’t score. If the Vols can’t get to (and convert at) the line, they need their very best defensive basketball to win.

John Fulkerson: 13-1 when he scores 10+

Fulkerson is certainly a part of getting to the free throw line. And again, I don’t think the Vols need 2020 All-SEC John Fulkerson, who averaged 14 and 6, to get their best basketball in 2021. But ten is an important number for him.

In Tennessee’s losses, Fulkerson had four at Auburn, at LSU, and vs Kentucky. He had seven against Alabama and Missouri: against the Tide he went 3-of-8 at the line, against the Tigers he attempted a single free throw. And he had eight at Ole Miss.

In good news for today, the one exception to this rule was the game in Gainesville, when Fulkerson had 15 points. Two of his best games of the season have come against Florida. The Vols are 9-1 when Fulkerson simply attempts eight shots or more, Gainesville also being the exception.

He doesn’t have to carry this team, he just needs to carry his weight. Senior Day was very promising. Let’s see what happens in round three with Florida.

Can they win without it? See Rupp Arena, 2021 edition. But Tennessee’s other wins with Fulkerson in single digits came against bad teams, or the 56-53 slog against Mississippi State. If Fulkerson doesn’t score double digits, you’ll need the freshmen to go supernova. After the first round of the NCAA Tournament, is that a realistic scenario?

Only big basketball games from here boys and girls. Let’s keep the party going.

Go Vols.

Two days off a huge Senior Day win over Florida, and one year removed from everything being shut down…this is a good week in Big Orange Country.

And of all the good things that have happened for Tennessee basketball in the last 15 years, the scenario this team finds itself in is actually the one we’ve experienced least. We’re much more familiar with…

• Obvious top seed (2006, 2008, 2018, 2019)
• The bubble (2009, 2011-14, 2020)
• The Tyndall-Barnes transition years (2015-17)

Only twice in these last 15 years have the Vols found themselves in our current predicament: we know it may not be on the top lines of any region, but we know we’re in. And from this position, Tennessee actually had two of its best tournament opportunities.

In 2007, the Vols were 22-10 (10-6) on Selection Sunday. Chris Lofton sprained his ankle halfway through the year, and the Vols lost six of eight. But then they won seven of their next eight before the curse of the Georgia Dome got us again in the SEC Tournament. Tennessee earned a five seed, put up a then-school record 121 points on Long Beach State in the first round, and beat Virginia in the 4/5 second round game when Ryan Childress and Chris Lofton made eight straight free throws in the final 30 seconds. If you’re old enough, you know the pleasure and the pain of what happened next: the Vols jumped out to a 20-point lead on the Greg Oden/Mike Conley Ohio State Buckeyes, but lost 85-84. A bananas stat from that game: the Vols shot 16-of-31 from the arc but just 8-of-17 from the line.

Three years later, Tennessee got their revenge in similar fashion. This time Tennessee was 25-8 (11-5) on Selection Sunday, and felt disrespected in falling to the six line. The Vols battled through Kawhi Leonard and San Diego State in round one, then made the madness work in their favor, beating 14-seed Ohio after they disposed of 3-seed Georgetown. And then, the Buckeyes: Evan Turner scored 31, but the Vols traded San Antonio for Saint Louis in a 77-74 thriller. Two days later, the Vols were one possession from the Final Four.

So even if these Vols don’t earn the highest seed we’ve seen under Pearl, Cuonzo, or Barnes, there will be opportunities to advance. Where exactly will the Vols fall on the seed line? In the 117 brackets submitted on March 8 in the Bracket Matrix, Tennessee’s average seed is 5.67. The Vols are the top six seed there today, and the second five seed in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology. On Torvik’s site, Tennessee’s resume is most similar to teams that earn an average seed of 5.4 in the NCAA Tournament, so that all tracks.

When I played with the Teamcast yesterday at Torvik’s site, there are scenarios where each win in the SEC Tournament could be worth a seed, if chalk holds:

• Lose to Florida and stay at 5
• Beat Florida, lose to Alabama, move up to 4
• Beat Florida, beat Alabama, lose to Arkansas, move up to 3
• Beat Florida, beat Alabama, beat Arkansas, move up to 2

That’s a lot of ifs, especially for the SEC Tournament, especially for Tennessee in the SEC Tournament, and especially for a pandemic year. (Will Warren also wrote on this today, and has a more thorough summary of where the Vols might land based on different results in the SEC Tournament.)

For the field as a whole, there’s plenty to watch. Using Tennessee’s neighbors in the Bracket Matrix, here’s a viewing guide for the next few days of Championship Week. Generally speaking, you want the teams we’ve listed with the Bracket Matrix seeds in bold to lose, with the possible exceptions of Vol opponents like Colorado and Missouri.

Tuesday, March 9

• WCC Finals: Gonzaga vs BYU (7 seed Bracket Matrix) – 9:00 PM – ESPN

Wednesday, March 10

• ACC: Clemson (6) vs Pitt/Miami – 2:30 PM – ACC Network
• SEC: Texas A&M vs Vanderbilt – 7:00 PM – SEC Network
• Big 12: Oklahoma (6) vs Iowa State – 9:30 PM – ESPN

Thursday, March 11

• SEC: Kentucky vs Mississippi State – 12:00 PM – SEC Network
• Big 12: Oklahoma State (4) vs West Virginia (4) – 11:30 AM – ESPN2
• ACC: Virginia (4) vs Syracuse/NC State – 12:00 PM – ESPN
• SEC: Florida vs Texas A&M/Vanderbilt – 2:30 PM – SEC Network
• Pac 12: Oregon (7) vs Arizona St/Wash. St – 2:30 PM – Pac 12 Network
• Big East: Creighton (5) vs Butler/Xavier – 6:00 PM – Fox Sports 1
• ACC: Florida State (5) vs Louisville/Duke/BC – 6:30 PM – ESPN
• SEC: Missouri (7) vs Georgia – 7:00 PM – SEC Network
• Pac 12: USC (5) vs Utah/Washington – 8:30 PM – Pac 12 Network
• Big 10: Wisconsin (7) vs Penn St/Nebraska – 9:00 PM – Big 10 Network
• SEC: Ole Miss vs South Carolina – 9:30 PM – SEC Network
• Big 12: Texas (4) vs Texas Tech (5) – 9:30 PM – ESPN
• Pac 12: Colorado (6) vs Stanford/Cal – 11:00 PM – ESPN

Enjoy the week.

Down 31-17 with five minutes to play in the first half, there were plenty of thoughts about what we had to let go of. Expectations, whether preseason leftovers or stubborn through the winter, were all getting a little slippery. Florida beat the Vols by 26 on January 19, and looked very much in control today even without Tre Mann.

I don’t know much for sure about this team, but whatever it does well in the SEC and NCAA Tournaments, defense will be a part of it. The Vols made a run because they held Florida to two points over those last five minutes (and zero in the last 3:37). The offense was a little slower to come along, but Victor Bailey, Keon Johnson, John Fulkerson, and free throws all had a role in getting it down to five at the break.

The Gators got three buckets in the first 2:22 of the second half, keeping the lead at seven. Their next made shot came seven minutes and twelve seconds later, which cut a Tennessee lead to four. Their next made shot came three minutes and twenty second after that, which cut a Tennessee lead to eight. Then nothing else until 3:30. Then nothing else.

Florida made only 20 shots today. In the last 17:30, they made three.

Along the way, the Vols forced 16 turnovers, ending the regular season 14-1 when they force 14+. Tennessee shot just 3-of-21 from the arc, the worst performance of the year. And the Vols went just 8-of-13 from the line.

But Tennessee won because it got 14 points from John Fulkerson in the first 22 minutes on senior day. And then, perhaps because the old Fulky showed up, some things opened up for the rest of the Vol offense the rest of the way home. While Florida was making just three shots in the final 17:30, the Vols got buckets from Pons, Bailey, Springer, Vescovi, Bailey, Springer, Bailey, Pons, Keon, Keon, Josiah, Keon, and Keon. Young #45 certainly had the motor for the final minutes. Old #10 made sure those minutes had a chance to matter.

And so Tennessee won, 65-54 on Senior Day. The Vols earn a double bye in the SEC Tournament and, if the bracket holds, will see the Gators again on Friday.

The Vols won their seventh SEC game by 10+ points; only 2008 (eight), 2014 (nine), and 2019 (12) had more. And sure, they lost three SEC games by 10+ points; only 2007 and 2010 (four each) had more among Tennessee’s recent NCAA Tournament teams. But not only is this pandemic year an opportunity to be thankful this season existed at all…this Tennessee team has given us a handful of memories that will last, including today. Missouri, Kansas, Rupp again…and now today, won with defense and perseverance in a way that might best represent what this season is about.

John Fulkerson’s final postgame comments are must listen. pic.twitter.com/3YVzp1xpxP

— Vol Network (@VolNetwork) March 7, 2021

John Fulkerson – flying freshman, slayer of Rupp, and the best of us on Senior Day – will be one of those guys we remember, just like the ones he listened to growing up. Yves Pons – the player I’ve spent the most number of possessions watching on the defensive end in my nearly 40 years – will be one too.

We’re not done here. First it’s Nashville and an SEC Tournament that should be all kinds of fun. Then the NCAA Tournament. There is basketball left in front of this team; if there’s a lot of it left, Tennessee’s defense will again have something to do with it.

But today, more than just saying thanks for being here, Tennessee won in a way that carries so much pride. This season has been hard. This game was headed in the same direction, with less help than ever coming from three.

And yet, Tennessee rallied. And Tennessee won.

This season has been tough. But so has this team.

Go Vols.

When the league expanded before the start of the 2012-13 season, basketball was expected to be one of the biggest winners. The year before, not only did Kentucky win the national championship, but incoming Missouri was 30-4 and a two seed out of the Big 12. They lost to Norfolk State in the first round, perhaps a sign of things to come: for the first four years with Mizzou and Texas A&M in the fold, the SEC really struggled to improve itself in the national conversation.

In 2013 the league put just three teams in the NCAA Tournament, and would’ve had just two if not for Marshall Henderson in the SEC Tournament. Florida went 18-0 in league play the following year, with the Vols just making three tournament teams via Dayton. Kentucky went 18-0 the next year. And in 2016, Vanderbilt squeaked in as an 11-seed with 14 losses, then got blown out by Wichita State.

The first noticeable improvement came in 2017. It started small: five tournament teams, all seeded nine or better. Then three of them made it through to the Elite Eight.

2018 saw the most competitive battle for the league crown, with Tennessee and Auburn sharing at 13-5 while eight teams made the NCAA Tournament. And in 2019 the league had two teams in the final KenPom Top 10 (Vols and Cats), five in the Top 25, and seven in the Top 50, all setting or tying records for the SEC in the expansion era. Four teams made what was one of the most loaded Sweet 16’s in the history of the tournament.

Who knows what would’ve happened last March, but in the regular season the league took a step back. We think four teams would’ve been in the tournament for sure, but Kentucky was the highest-rated in KenPom at only 29th. And in KenPom’s conference rankings, which rate each league based on how a good a team expected to go .500 in your conference is, the SEC finished sixth, a clear step back after finishing fourth in 2018 and 2019.

But this year, the SEC rates as the third best conference in college basketball. It is the league’s best mark since 2007. In the expansion era using that KenPom .500 team ranking:

Year	League Rank
2021	3
2020	6
2019	4
2018	4
2017	5
2016	6
2015	5
2014	6
2013	7

What makes the SEC stronger this year?

The league is good at the top. The SEC currently has four teams in the KenPom Top 30, and could still get three teams on the Top 4 seed lines of the NCAA Tournament if the Vols and Arkansas do well in Nashville, which only happened in 2019 in the expansion era.

And Alabama has an opportunity to be one of the ten best SEC teams of the expansion era:

Best SEC Teams via KenPom, 2013-present

Team	KenPom
15 Kentucky	36.91
13 Florida	31.18
14 Florida	28.57
17 Kentucky	27.72
19 Kentucky	27.57
17 Florida	27.5
19 Tennessee	26.24
16 Kentucky	25.14
19 Auburn	25
21 Alabama	24.78

And the league is much better at the bottom. Texas A&M is the wild card in this pandemic year, playing zero games in the month of February. They bring up the rear in KenPom at 130th. But ahead of them is South Carolina at 103rd; even Vanderbilt, who we tend to think of as struggling so mightily, is 91st. Last year the Commodores were 169th. In 2019 they were 155th. In 2017 LSU was 172nd; Auburn was 189th in Bruce Pearl’s second season, Missouri 192nd in 2015, and Mississippi State spent 2013 and 2014 in the 200s. You get the idea.

Even the “bad” teams in this league have much more of a pulse this year, and almost everyone has at least the makings of a good coach. We’re a long way from the kind of struggles Johnny Jones, Kim Anderson, Rick Ray, Tony Barbee, etc. faced just a few short years ago. In fact, three of those schools are going to make the NCAA Tournament this year, and the fourth has Ben Howland.

It could make for an amazing SEC Tournament, where I don’t think you’d be totally surprised if any of eight different teams won it, or if Alabama simply finished the job. But it should be a point of pride no matter what your team does in Nashville, including the Vols. The league is better than we’ve probably been giving it credit for, and having a chance to earn a double bye in its tournament is no small feat. We’ll see how it all plays out for everyone in the NCAA Tournament, but SEC Basketball continues to move in the right direction, and that’s good news for everyone.

It’s March, which means we’re just a handful of days from brackets, which means we’re just another handful of days from, “Every team in the tournament loses except one.” What we can say for sure about Tennessee’s season on March 2 is that they will make the NCAA Tournament, and they will lose at some point unless they win it all.

I don’t know if we’re allowed to dream that big around here, since we’re still looking for our first trip to the Final Four. A visit to the Elite Eight would only be our second. Since the turn of the century, the Vols have made the Sweet 16 six times; not bad for a program with zero appearances in the 64-team field in years that started with 19__. For the most part, there’s only heartbreak from there: the last five minutes against North Carolina, a 20-point halftime lead against Ohio State, a charge call against Michigan, and Ryan (Fulmerzied) Cline. Only once – even with one of the program’s best teams in 2008 – did the Vols just get straight up beaten by a better opponent, the way it might happen if the Vols land on the 4/5 line in a region with Gonzaga, Baylor, or Michigan this year. And only once, now 11 years ago, did the Vols break through.

If they get that far this time, it’ll be a success. If they’re upset in round one, it’ll be a disappointment. Everything else, at this point, feels a little fuzzy.

This is the year for fuzziness.

It’s a better option than last year, when the Vols won at Rupp Arena 364 days ago then everyone’s season was cancelled nine days later. Presence beats absence. But this year’s presence is confusing, and not just because most of us haven’t been there to see it in person. These Vols started 7-0, capped with a 20-point win in a Top 15 showdown at Missouri. Then they went to 10-1 (4-1), beaten only by an Alabama team it turns out is pretty good, especially good when they hit 10-of-20 from the arc.

Since then, of course, they’re 6-6. After winning at Rupp again on February 6, the Vols have won every Wednesday and lost every Saturday (which is unfortunate considering there is no Wednesday game this week). What seemed like very real conversations on earning a number one seed and winning the SEC have given way to the giant shrug emoji.

It is perhaps this team’s greatest achievement: they played so well early on they made us forget what should be the biggest given in a pandemic year. How dare we expect consistency?

Except they had it, until they didn’t.

Soon, this season is going to end. Perhaps they’ll rebound and beat Florida they way they’ve rebounded, for at least one game, after almost every loss. Maybe they’ll make a run it what should be a l-o-a-d-e-d SEC Tournament, which would be really fun; maybe they’ll last one day due to the aforementioned loadedness. And truly, you’d believe most anything about their NCAA Tournament fate right now.

Either way, this thing will be over soon. I don’t have the answers any more than Rick Barnes or anyone else does. Maybe it’ll end with success. Maybe it’ll end with more disappointment.

But before any of that happens, in the middle of this week with no game to play, a word of thanks.

These guys go through God knows what to play. Covid testing, restrictions and regulations, and a very different life than they experienced or imagined in being part of Tennessee basketball. I know they wanted to play; I know it’s in the immediate financial interests of a couple of them to have done so. Even so, I’m grateful they’ve been here twice a week.

This was something that maybe never had a chance to be properly expressed during the football season. In a pandemic, inconsistent should be the norm: witness Penn State or LSU in football, or Duke and Kentucky in basketball. The fall we experienced was a lot of things, but inconsistent failed to be among them. Losing to Kentucky the way we did skipped a number of conversations, and there was never a chance to go back to them when the Vols couldn’t follow up with a win to stop the snowball’s roll. And, rightfully so, then we had to have the big picture conversations about the coach and the program and an investigation, all things this basketball season should happily avoid even if the Vols don’t win another game.

But in the midst of all that, too, were football players facing tests and isolation and loss, in more ways than one. And they wanted to play, and since they last played several have decided it’s in their bests interests to play elsewhere. It was almost impossible to be grateful for last season. But I am grateful they tried to play.

In basketball, it’s worth pointing to the future from here, before this team’s ultimate March fate is decided. Another five star is on the way, John Fulkerson might be back, there is much to be excited about beyond just this season. That’ll be true if they get bounced in round one or break back through to the Elite Eight. The one will still be disappointing and the other will still be celebrated.

But either way, for all the frustration that comes with inconsistency, I’m so grateful they’ve been here this season.

I have no idea what they’re going to do in March. But I can suggest simply enjoying it, for as long as it lasts.

Go Vols.

Tennessee needs that game with Florida to be rescheduled. Otherwise, what’s left for the Vols – at Vanderbilt, at Auburn, and a possible reschedule at South Carolina – provides little in the way of opportunity but plenty in the way of potholes on the road. In the 28 brackets released after the loss to Kentucky in the Bracket Matrix, Tennessee’s average seed is 5.14. The five line is perilous in its own right, where you’ll face some of the best mid-major teams in the nation as 12 seeds. It also puts you in the potential path of Gonzaga or Baylor in the Sweet 16. But if the Vols don’t get another chance at a quality win via the Gators, I’m not sure if they can get back to the three line without winning the SEC Tournament.

It’s a different set of conversations than the ones we were having at 10-1 (4-1) on January 16, when Tennessee’s only loss was to a hot-shooting and surging Alabama team and the Vols were ranked sixth in both AP and KenPom. Since then Tennessee is 5-5, and it’s been weird along the way.

For instance: one of the biggest questions we had with this team, full of freshmen and absent Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden, was who takes the big shot at the end of games? Turns out, we haven’t really needed that answer. Through 21 games, the Vols have played just two one-possession contests: a 56-53 win over Mississippi State, and a 52-50 loss at Ole Miss.

I went back through each of Tennessee’s nine (soon to be 10) NCAA Tournament teams in the last 15 years. They averaged seven one-possession (or overtime) games per year, and only Cuonzo Martin’s last team (four) and Bruce Pearl’s first team (two) played less than six. True to form, things get harder as you get into March: plenty of those teams added multiple one-possession games in the NCAA Tournament. Pearl’s first team played no one-possession games until a March 1 loss to Kentucky in Knoxville, then Chris Lofton’s shot over Winthrop.

So there’s still time to find some answers to that question, but so far the 2021 Vols have won comfortably or lost uncomfortably. Add “very” in many cases. With 2-4 SEC games to play, the Vols have five conference wins by 10+ points. Among those recent Tennessee tournament teams, only 2008 (8), 2014 (9), and 2019 (12) had more in the regular season.

And, with 2-4 SEC games to play, the Vols have three conference losses by 10+ points. Among those recent Tennessee tournament teams, only 2007 and 2010 had more (four each).

The 2021 Vols have three 10+ point wins over KenPom Top 50 opponents (Missouri, Kansas, Kentucky). Only 2007 (4) and 2019 (5) had more. The 2008 team only had one. The Elite Eight squad two years later only had two.

It’s not all bad with this team, not at all. There’s just not much middle right now. Through some combination of covid, freshmen, and just this team, Tennessee either plays really well or really not. This, of course, is a recipe for losing in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. So along with stringing together a few wins against Vanderbilt, Auburn, and South Carolina, you’d also like to see this team beat two good teams in a row in the SEC Tournament. I thought Rick Barnes’ quote after Kentucky when asked if this team didn’t handle adversity well was a good one:

“I don’t know if I would say they don’t handle adversity. I don’t think they’ve handled success very well. When you feel like you’re getting things going, you feel like we’re turning the corner — that shows up more, I think if you saw practice, you would see some of that. But I would say this too: That goes back to really leadership within the framework of what we’re trying to do. Some of that, we talked about, has got to come from within the players. I would say more (than) the adversity, I don’t think we’ve handled success very well. I really don’t.

The Vols need to get healthy, for sure. They may not have a ton of opportunities left to build their resume, but they can certainly level out in the good way.