Author Archives: Will Shelton

Let’s start with some good news:

• Average KenPom rank of Tennessee’s previous 10 opponents: 41.9
• Average KenPom rank of Tennessee’s next 10 opponents: 74.0

The Vols went 6-4 in the previous 10, earning Quad 1 home wins over Arizona and LSU along with four Quad 1 road losses. The upcoming last 10 games feature the two huge showdowns in Knoxville with Kentucky (February 15) and Auburn (February 26). But road tests in Starkville (February 9) and Fayetteville (February 19) should also check the Quad 1 box.

We come to February believing the Vols probably are who the schedule says they are: each of our six losses are road/neutral to a KenPom Top 20 foe, and the Vols are undefeated against such foes in Knoxville. North Carolina has righted the ship for the moment, making that a third Quad 1 win for Tennessee.

Both KenPom and Bart Torvik project the Vols to finish 7-3 in these final 10 games, ending the regular season at 21-9 (12-6). That conference number should be enough to earn a double bye in the SEC Tournament. One big question as bracketologies begin to heat up: how will the selection committee treat the best SEC of our lifetimes?

If the Vols hit their projected 21-9 mark, they’d be around the midpoint of Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament teams in the KenPom era:

Tennessee’s Tournament Teams in the Regular Season, 2002-22

• 2008: 28-3
• 2019: 27-4
• 2006: 21-6
• 2010, 2018: 23-7
• 2007: 22-9
• 2022: 21-9 (projected)
• 2021: 17-7
• 2014: 20-11
• 2009: 19-11
• 2011: 18-13

However, if you rate those teams in KenPom:

Tennessee’s Tournament Teams in KenPom, 2002-22

1. 2019: 26.24
2. 2014: 23.69
3. 2022: 22.97 (current)
4. 2018: 22.27
5. 2008: 22.17
6. 2021: 19.95
7. 2006: 19.44
8. 2010: 18.50
9. 2007: 18.29
10. 2009: 16.48
11. 2011: 12.41

Play-for-play, this Tennessee team is in the conversation with any of the non-2019 versions for the second best Vol squad of the last 20 years. Far more of those plays are getting made defensively than offensively with this group, but it’s still enough to make them one of the best teams we’ve seen around here.

Ultimately this will all get decided in March, of course. Last season, with all its covid weirdness, isn’t one you’d trade for any of the next three on that KenPom list, even though the 2021 Vols would’ve been slight favorites on 2006, 2007, or 2010. All the 2022 version can do is give themselves their best chance to advance, and continue to try to find their best basketball going forward. I’ve yet to figure out if playing lots of different lineups in crunch time against Top 20 foes is a good thing (versatility!) or a bad thing (inconsistency!).

But if they are who the schedule says they are, #nobadlosses will make this next portion seem a little more friendly, starting tonight with Texas A&M.

The Vols are currently a four seed in the Bracket Matrix and Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology. Same as we said last year: there’s particular value in getting to a three for a program that’s only been to the Elite Eight once. If you can get to three, you won’t see the very best teams in the land until the round of eight. Good news/bad news there for Tennessee: Kentucky and Auburn might be two of the very best teams in the land. Arizona might make three.

It may feel like the argument for the Vols getting to a three will depend on getting another huge win over the Cats and/or Tigers in Knoxville, but we’ve got some time until then. That means this next stretch – A&M, at South Carolina, at Mississippi State, Vanderbilt – is a great opportunity to find more consistency on the offensive end. Do that, stay in the Top 25, and give yourself a chance to move up in the national conversation when you host the Cats two weeks from tonight. Tennessee can’t solve all their problems or get north in a hurry in your favorite bracketology. But by putting more notches in the win column in the SEC, they’ll give themselves a chance to be considered as part of an elite upper crust, that could truly send five teams from this conference among the Top 16 seeds.

We’ll find out about that soon with the projected bracket reveal from the NCAA; the Lady Vols were the last number one seed in theirs. That’ll be a great indicator of how the committee truly sees the SEC, and in particular Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU, and Alabama.

The chances for trajectory-changing wins are still out there. Until then? Good old fashioned regular wins can still do wonders for UT’s seed in this league.

Kansas and Texas Tech played a double overtime thriller last night, with the Jayhawks securing the win and the new top spot in KenPom’s defensive strength of schedule ratings. This rating is essentially, “How good are the defenses you’ve played against?”

The Vols slid to number two, but could move back to the top in the next couple of weeks. Tennessee’s overall strength of schedule will ease up a bit, but it will take a second on the defensive end. Along with playing Texas this weekend (17th in KenPom defense), the Vols’ next three league games are Florida, Texas A&M, and at South Carolina. The SEC’s best defenses are LSU (1st KenPom), Tennessee (5th), Auburn (12th), and Kentucky (30th). But right behind them, you guessed it: A&M (31st), South Carolina (33rd), and Florida (44th).

After the loss at Rupp, we asked if these Vols might simply be a reflection of the schedule they’ve faced so far. Then Tennessee had a relatively strong offensive performance against the nation’s best defense on Saturday, giving the Vols a second Quad 1 win and providing hope such a thing can continue to be possible going forward.

I don’t know where the Vols are going to end up in terms of the quality of defenses they’ve faced. But I’m pretty sure it’s going to rate fairly high on this list:

Tennessee Defensive Strength of Schedule, 2002-2022

Year	KenPom Defense SOS
2022	2
2021	53
2020	45
2019	28
2018	18
2017	3
2016	41
2015	21
2014	29
2013	37
2012	71
2011	28
2010	35
2009	21
2008	41
2007	17
2006	20
2005	11
2004	34
2003	28
2002	1

(NCAA Tournament seasons in bold)

The KenPom era stretches back 20 years now, which includes everything from Buzz Peterson to the present at UT. Peterson’s first team faced Marquette, St. John’s, Memphis, Louisville, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Syracuse in the non-conference. They lost Ron Slay to a knee injury and finished 15-16, first in the nation in defensive strength of schedule.

And you’ll see Rick Barnes’ second team on there from 2017, which caught Wisconsin and Oregon in Maui before facing North Carolina and Gonzaga. South Carolina’s Final Four team finished third in the nation in defensive efficiency that year; Florida, Kentucky, and Alabama also all finished in the Top 10. Those Vols finished 16-16.

Among Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament teams in the last 20 years, none have faced a defensive challenge like this. The closest comparisons are Bruce Pearl’s first two teams, which were bolstered in part by playing John Calipari’s Memphis teams and Barnes’ 2006 Elite Eight squad at Texas. And Tennessee’s 2018 SEC Championship squad lost to the eventual national champs from Villanova and faced an SEC of increasing depth.

Those three teams all finished between 17-20 in defensive strength of schedule. But this year, the SEC looks better than we’ve ever seen. We’ve faced the nation’s best defense twice from LSU, plus the usual pair of games with Kentucky. And the Vols drew four Top 20 defenses in the non-conference in Texas Tech (4th), Arizona (9th), Texas (17th), and Villanova (18th).

Tennessee’s offense has struggled and may again, though the steepest portion of the climb appears to be over. The only easy outs on defense in this league don’t grace our schedule until late February.

But the Vols are also facing the deepest SEC and the toughest defenses we’ve seen one of our tournament teams go up against.

If you can come through all that with your confidence intact – and Saturday was a big one for that – you can hopefully put yourself in position to weather any storm in March.

If you were to imagine the most satisfying way to beat Will Wade and LSU, you might’ve come close today. Wire-to-wire beatdowns are fun, and we did look to be on our way there for a minute. Close game decided at the buzzer carries its own satisfaction, a moment that could live forever. But there was something incredibly satisfying about jumping to a 14-0 lead, then LSU getting close, only to be denied, repeatedly, by Tennessee. Through all the chipiness, which the Vols gave as good as they got:

Uros Plavsic: "(LSU) wanted to win the fight. We wanted to win the basketball game"

(pause)

"I think we did both, actually."

— @GrantRamey (@GrantRamey) January 23, 2022

That’s Uros Plavsic, whose season high last year was four points. He played five minutes against Villanova and five at Colorado. He found his way to 12 points and seven rebounds in Baton Rouge, a Tennessee comeback that came up short.

He did not come up short today: 12 points, six boards, and a crucial block to silence one of those would-be LSU runs. Will Wade did not agree with the call.

Will Wade has not agreed with Tennessee. The 2018 Vols waxed his first LSU team 84-61 in Knoxville. Since then, the Tigers had won four in a row, including a game we did not agree with in Baton Rouge the following year. That was followed by Santiago Vescovi’s debut, where he made six threes and committed nine turnovers. That was followed by a 78-65 win in Baton Rouge last year, then the Tiger victory two weeks ago.

There have been plenty of emotions swinging this way and that in those two weeks. Tennessee gave up 107 points at Rupp and sought to change their vibe. LSU lost Xavier Pinson in the UT game and has now lost three in a row. Wade took center stage after the Alabama defeat, which got him plenty of camera time today…which ultimately, I’m going to say Tennessee fans enjoyed.

And this is a win to be enjoyed.

A five-point halftime lead was 12 at the under 12, then 15 with nine to play. LSU came knocking, cutting it to six with five to go. But then: Fulkerson for two, Uros with the block, Zeigler for three, then those two with four straight free throws. LSU sat on 45 points from the five minute mark until 1:27 remained. And ultimately, it’s a 14-point victory for the good guys.

It would’ve been one thing to just stay white hot from the arc, which is how the Vols started. But the final number landed at 10-of-28 (35.7%): good, really good for Tennessee, but nothing crazy. The Vols didn’t need insanity to win.

They needed their defense, alive and well after Lexington: 14 turnovers for the Tigers, and only eight offensive rebounds allowed. But they also needed something more on the offensive end, especially against LSU’s defense.

Coming into league play, we thought there would be nights when Kennedy Chandler just took over. We thought there would be nights when the three ball indeed did the damage. And we’d just seen a healthy John Fulkerson put the team on his back against what very much appears to be a number one seed.

Since then, we haven’t seen any one of those things manifest itself again. Chandler and Fulkerson missed the opener at Alabama with covid. Before today, UT’s only league game where they hit over 33% from the arc was the one where they gave up 107 points. Tennessee’s offense was struggling.

What did it do well against LSU’s number one defense today? The biggest thing to me: get good shots. Plan A may not be Kennedy Chandler or John Fulkerson or heave and hope. I think Plan A will look more like making sure every shot is a good one.

Today, the Vols had 18 assists on 22 made shots. Kennedy Chandler was 4-of-13 from the floor, but had six assists to one turnover. And Santiago Vescovi was money from three, finishing with 16 points (5-of-11 from the arc), five assists, and six rebounds.

Barnes: "I don't know if we took a bad three tonight. We have to take them on our terms and what fits the scouting report."

— Ryan Schumpert (@rschump00) January 23, 2022

Right now, no team in the nation has played better defenses than Tennessee. The Vols are first in KenPom’s defensive strength of schedule rating. But in passing the stiffest test there tonight, the Vols don’t just survive to figure it out against weaker defenses going forward. Tennessee got an offensive performance good enough to beat the nation’s best defense, without weirdness, from the full cast of characters. It’s a rotation that tightened to include both 10 minutes from Justin Powell and seven from Jahmai Mashack.

When we say the SEC is good, we don’t have the right words for it. Because it’s never been as good as it is right now in my lifetime. In our league preview on December 28, we looked at the number of SEC teams to finish in the KenPom Top 20. The league has only had five teams finish in the Top 20 once: 2006, with Florida (1), LSU (11), Tennessee (17), South Carolina (19), and Arkansas (20).

Right now: Auburn (5), Kentucky (6), LSU (11), Tennessee (13), Alabama (16). Florida, next on our schedule, feels like a break at 29th.

This thing is going to be a fight every night. Auburn is both so far in front and so advantaged in their own schedule, maybe it’s a good idea to stop worrying about trying to win the league and keep worrying about getting better. But right now, the Vols are a three seed in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology. It’s a good goal: a three keeps you away from the very best teams in college basketball until the Elite Eight.

The Vols are going to see plenty of those very best teams in this league. But tonight, the Vols made you believe they’ll continue to be one of them.

Great win. Go Vols.

I read John Calipari’s postgame quotes after the game on Saturday, curious to see how he described his team shooting 68% from the field.

I’m more concerned with how we play. I’m trying not to make this game-to-game. If you do that, you torture yourself and your team. Are we getting better? Our history is that our teams play better at the end of the year. That’s the history. So, is this team getting better? Are individual players getting better? That’s my focus.

Calipari from UK Athletics

That sentiment can feel like a contrast to a criticism of Rick Barnes, that his teams are better earlier in the year than in March. It’s indeed easier to criticize when you just lost by 28 points. But the whole “playing our best basketball at the end of the year” thing is hard to come by.

Stretching back to the start of Bruce Pearl’s time, how many Tennessee teams were peaking at the right time?

It happened twice with Pearl due to players returning from injury. That was obviously the case with Chris Lofton in 2007, coming back from an ankle sprain when the Vols were 15-8 (3-5), freshly blown out by the defending champs in Gainesville on February 3. With Lofton back, Tennessee finished the regular season 7-1, including wins over Kentucky and Florida in Knoxville. This team still stumbled immediately in the SEC Tournament, but advanced to the program’s second ever Sweet 16 and had 1-seed Ohio State dead to rights from there.

No Tennessee player in my lifetime was as impactful as Lofton, but Brian Williams’ return at the end of the 2010 regular season made that group snap together with the final puzzle piece. Those Vols were 20-7 (8-5) after a loss at Florida, but beat #2 Kentucky in Knoxville and dominated a good Mississippi State team in Starkville to finish 23-7 (11-5). They played their way to the finals of the SEC Tournament – more on that in a second – and, of course, made the program’s only Elite Eight.

And no group was better at peaking at the right time than Cuonzo Martin’s 2014 squad: 16-11 (7-7) and on the hottest of seats after a February 22 loss to Texas A&M. They won four blowouts in a row to close the regular season, lost to #1 Florida in a close game in the SEC semis, then won three games coming out of Dayton and almost made the Elite Eight. In KenPom, they were 26th on February 22 and sixth in the Sweet 16.

Other Tennessee teams who made the NCAA Tournament ran into clear walls at various points. Pearl’s first team was 20-4 and locked up the SEC East with a dramatic win in Gainesville. And from there, I think they were just out of gas: a pair of home losses to end the regular season 1-2, then one-and-done in the SEC Tournament, then a narrow escape against 15-seed Winthrop, and finally bested by Wichita State in the Round of 32. More dramatically, the 2011 team was 7-0, then never won more than three games in a row the rest of the way in Pearl’s final season, finishing 12-15 from there.

And sometimes, it’s more about the schedule than anything else. Take Bruce Pearl’s 2008 squad, which was 25-2 (11-1) and number one in the land after beating Memphis on February 23. From there, they finished 6-3. But the losses came by three points at eventual four-seed Vanderbilt, and by one point to eventual nine-seed Arkansas in the tornado tournament. They got dominated by Louisville in the Sweet 16, for sure. But in those final nine games, they also beat Kentucky at home, won at Florida, and beat a criminally underrated Butler team in the second round of the tournament. I’m not sure they peaked too early, though it’s certainly hard to top winning at #1 Memphis. I think a portion of that had to do with who they were playing when.

If you look at Rick Barnes’ three NCAA Tournament teams at Tennessee, I think they fall into each of these categories.

Almost one year ago to the day, the Vols were 10-1 (4-1) and ranked sixth in KenPom. A shocking 75-49 loss at Florida was the first step of an 8-8 finish, with Tennessee never winning more than two games in a row the rest of the way, trading wins and losses every night from February 10 to the end of the regular season. For what it’s worth, Calipari called last year a throwaway year in the postgame on Saturday when asked about the value of the home crowd at Rupp being back.

The 2019 squad started 23-1 (11-0) before they went to Rupp. They finished 8-5 to the end. But every one of their losses was to a Top 20 team in KenPom; before that February 16 game at Rupp, they played just two of those teams all year (lost to Kansas, beat Gonzaga). And in those final 13 games, Tennessee still beat Kentucky twice, and dominated KenPom #21 Mississippi State twice. It’s not a fun memory, but consider the absurdity Purdue had to get from Ryan Cline to win that game. I don’t think the 2019 team peaked early. I think the schedule revealed more about them.

This could also be true for the current Vols: five losses, all to teams in the KenPom Top 20. Along the way, the Vols also beat KenPom #8 Arizona and #24 North Carolina. We’ve got two more weeks of scheduling madness – at Vandy, LSU, Florida, at Texas – but in February and March, the Vols will currently only face two Top 25 KenPom teams, both home games vs Kentucky and Auburn.

We’ve also seen a Barnes team play its best basketball at the right time. In 2018, the Vols were 19-7 (9-5) after an 11-point loss in Athens, the second defeat in three games after the win at Rupp. It felt like a blown opportunity to win the SEC and earn a high seed. Instead, Tennessee won their last four regular season games, including a big one over Florida and the title-clincher over Georgia. They played their way to Sunday in the SEC Tournament and lost a close one to Kentucky. And they got Sister Jeaned when Kyle Alexander was injured against Wright State. Nonetheless, that team finished 7-2 with a five-point loss to Kentucky and three bounces on the rim against Loyola.

Sometimes it’s the wall. Sometimes it’s the schedule. And sometimes, you find your way to your best basketball.

There’s a lot left to learn about this team, but a 28-point loss isn’t a defining moment. This, too, is common:

• 2022: at Kentucky by 28
• 2021: at Florida by 26
• 2019: at Kentucky by 17
• 2018: at Alabama by 28
• 2014: at Florida by 26
• 2011: vs Michigan by 30
• 2010: vs Kentucky by 29
• 2009: at Kentucky by 19
• 2008: vs Texas by 19
• 2007: at Kentucky by 19
• 2006: vs Oklahoma State by 16

Every one of Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament teams in the last 16 years has lost a game by at least 16 points. The 2008 squad got blasted by Rick Barnes and Texas in November. Our Elite Eight squad lost to Kentucky by 29 on Selection Sunday. The 2018 SEC champs lost in Tuscaloosa after winning at Rupp by almost 30. It happens.

Have these Vols hit a wall? Is it just the difficulty of our current schedule? We’ll see what answers come in the next two weeks, then if this team can find the consistency never available last year in conference play.

And does Tennessee have better basketball out there?

I said this before: I wanted us to play our best game today, but I think we’re going to be better a month from now. We’re still in good shape, but we’re going to find out about a lot of different things. I think some way, somehow, we’ve got to change the vibe with our team. What that may be? I will determine that more after I watch this tape.”

Rick Barnes

The most telling statistic for Tennessee this year is how many threes they make. Tuesday’s 20-point win over South Carolina included 7-of-21 from the arc for the good guys, making Tennessee 10-0 this year when they hit 26+% from three and 1-4 when they don’t.

But over the last three post-PB&J seasons, the most telling trend overall might be what the Vols allow on the offensive glass.

LSU and Auburn have something figured out against Tennessee. Those two almost always give the #Vols lots of problems.

Pace. Physicality. A problem.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) January 9, 2022

The Vols have lost four straight to LSU, three of them in Baton Rouge. And we’ve dropped six straight to Auburn, three of those on the road plus one in the SEC Tournament.

Compare that to our oldest rivals from Kentucky, where Rick Barnes is 8-6 since arriving in Knoxville, and 3-1 in our last four trips to Rupp Arena. No Tennessee coach has ever enjoyed this kind of success against Kentucky, regularly the most talented team in the league.

The Cats certainly haven’t played as fast in the past, but I don’t think physicality has ever been an issue for them. If anything, I think there’s an important style point here.

Auburn and LSU were both in the Top 15 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage in 2020, Auburn again in 2021. Unlike previous versions, this year’s Bruce Pearl squad is defense-first, and perhaps more willing to make that trade to get guys back on that end of the floor, where they lead the nation in blocked shots. But we’ve got until February 26 to figure them out. LSU is 37th, and grabbed a dozen offensive rebounds against us, a season high allowed by the Vols.

And from the data at Sports-Reference, that’s a good place to start. In the last three years, Tennessee is 6-15 when allowing 10+ offensive rebounds. It drops to 2-9 at 11+.

Those 15 losses with 10+ offensive rebounds allowed? That’s 56% of Tennessee’s total losses the last three years. It includes all three losses to LSU, Auburn, and Alabama in that span. It also includes Villanova this year, Oregon State and the dreadful performance at Florida last year, and the Memphis loss in 2020.

Noticeably absent from the list? Kentucky. The Cats had anywhere from five to nine offensive rebounds against the Vols in our last four meetings, each won by the road team. Throughout Barnes’ tenure, the Vols have found regular success with undersized post players against Kentucky: not just Grant and Admiral, but Armani Moore and John By God Fulkerson.

So we’re going to find out real quick about this hypothesis on Saturday, because when it comes to offensive rebounds, Oscar Tshiebwe is the final exam.

You never know what kind of pro someone will be. But if you’re just looking for a great college basketball performance, Tshiebwe is giving it to you almost every night. He’s the current leader in the KenPom Player of the Year standings, putting him on a short list with guys like Carsen Edwards, Brandon Clarke & Rui Hachimura, and Devon Dotson & Udoka Azubuike as the most productive college players the Vols have faced in the last few years.

Tshiebwe averages 17 points and 15 rebounds – five offensive – per game. In 29 minutes. You can beat Kentucky when he goes off, or at least Duke did (17 points, 20 rebounds). Notre Dame (25 points, 7 rebounds) and LSU (8 points, 13 rebounds) kept him one dimensional, relatively speaking. In the last two games, he has 59 points and 30 rebounds against Georgia and Vanderbilt.

Who’s drawing this 6’9″, 255 lbs. assignment? Kentucky surrounds him with three shooters, so it’s not usually a twin towers situation like the Vols have seen in this matchup before. Tennessee’s best defensive rebounder is Olivier Nkamhoua, who’s still giving up 25 pounds here. It’s also a big game for Josiah-Jordan James, who’s been one of the team’s best rebounders his entire career, to help clean things up.

Styles will indeed collide here. Is Tennessee just as susceptible against this Kentucky team as they’ve been against Auburn and LSU in the past when it’s mostly one guy doing all this work on the offensive glass? Could the Vols simply shoot their way past it by getting north of 26%? How much can Tennessee’s own bread and butter – creating turnovers – become a factor in this game?

Our first four SEC road games have been mountainous: Alabama, LSU, Kentucky, then Memorial on Tuesday. That’s followed by a trip to Texas two weeks from tomorrow. It gets easier from there: our last five SEC road games are South Carolina, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Missouri, and Georgia. There’s a concern that Auburn, with both dominant play and a lighter schedule, could build an insurmountable lead in the conference race. If the Vols want to keep pace there, this is a big one to get.

But I’m most interested to see how the things we believe about Tennessee – in the present, and over the last three years – manifest themselves in this game. That Barnes and these guys have created something other than, “It’s Rupp, we’ll lose,” is remarkable by itself. What more will we learn about the Vols this time?

1:00 PM ET Saturday, ESPN, with the Dan Shulman/Jay Bilas/Holly Rowe A-team.

Go Vols.

Alternative title: make more threes!

You already knew that, of course. But the rise in frustration in watching Tennessee’s offense is directly related to their in/ability to make threes…and more than I thought.

When word leaked out after an exhibition that the Vols were jacking 40+ threes, optimism reigned. Modern basketball! Fun to watch! Final Four!

Through 14 games this season, the Vols are 61st nationally in threes attempted as a percentage of their total shots (via KenPom). Last year: 244th. In the vaunted Peanut Butter & Jelly offense of 2019, third overall in KenPom: 324th.

So yeah, we’re shooting more threes. Like a lot more. Like 28.3 per game, when we’re used to taking 19.9 (last year) or 19.3 in 2019 and 2020.

But you’ve noticed how that’s working out for us so far:

Year	3PT%	Attempts/Game	% of shots
2022	32.1%	28.3	43.7%
2021	33.1%	19.9	34.6%
2020	31.3%	19.3	36.1%
2019	36.7%	19.3	32.2%
2018	38.0%	20.5	35.7%

We’re shooting it way more often, but not making them any more often. The good news when it comes to effective field goal percentage: from two, the Vols are better than they’ve been in any year under Barnes other than 2019. And so, in part as a result of playing four Top 20 KenPom defenses, Tennessee’s offense is currently 52nd in those ratings. It ain’t great, but it ain’t last year (85th) or 2020 (96th).

But in the three-game SEC opener, from deep the Vols are 7-of-29 at Alabama (24.1%), 10-of-34 vs Ole Miss (29.4%), and 6-of-24 at LSU (25%). And those will get you beat twice and taken to overtime.

That’s the magic number so far, in fact: Tennessee is 9-0 when shooting at least 26% from three, but 1-4 when they don’t (6-of-24 at Colorado).

We’ve seen good and bad performances against good teams: 17.9% against Villanova and 45% (9-of-20) against North Carolina in the same weekend. The Vols were just 7-of-24 (29.2%) against Arizona and, of course, 6-of-40 (15%) against Texas Tech.

Who is Tennessee’s best three-point shooter?

Player	3PT%	Attempts
Nkamhoua	50.0%	22
Powell	39.0%	41
Vescovi	36.4%	110
Chandler	34.0%	50
Zeigler	30.6%	49
James	22.6%	62
Bailey	21.7%	46

I’m not sure how much they want to increase the outside looks for Nkamhoua; that probably depends on how many minutes he’s spending on the floor in lineups with non-shooters like Fulky or Plavsic. A group with Josiah-Jordan James at the 4 and Nkamhoua at the 5 is Tennessee’s fourth-most common lineup in the last five games via KenPom. As we know, Tennessee’s overall rotation varies heavily from night to night at the moment.

Among regular shooters, Justin Powell has the team’s best percentage. But his minutes have been streaky: 26 vs Arizona, then 15 at Alabama, then 22 vs Ole Miss, then just 10 at LSU. In this stretch he’s 3-of-9 from deep.

Vescovi is the most consistent option, and the main reason our shooting hasn’t been worse in SEC play. In 33 minutes at Alabama and LSU and 41 against Ole Miss, he’s 10-of-25 (40%) from three. He’s taken just five two-point shots in those three games, though he did get to the line seven times at LSU. And he pulls up around twice as often as the point guards, sharing the floor with either Chandler or Zeigler almost exclusively. When Jahmai Mashack gets in the game, Vescovi has seen a tiny bit of PG run. But otherwise he’s become both a strong shooter and defender.

You can tinker with the lineups all day, and perhaps Barnes will continue to do so. But nothing would help Tennessee more right now than Josiah-Jordan James hitting open looks. James is Tennessee’s best defender, ranking in the Top 150 nationally in both block and steal percentage. He rebounds well, and he rarely turns it over. And the Vol offense can create lots of open looks for him, as we saw multiple times in the corner at LSU. He’s just struggling mightily to see it go through the net.

You’ve also got Victor Bailey unable to level up his flamethrower coming off the bench: 4-of-8 against Presbyterian, 6-of-38 (15.8%) the rest of the year. It’s been a difficult season shooting it for a guy who hit 33.8% last year and 39.8% at Oregon in 2019.

You can always simplify things down to the Cuonzo Martin school of, “We didn’t make shots.” So yeah, make more threes: particularly Josiah, and either Bailey finding his shot off the bench or Powell playing more. Some of this will come down to lineups. Some of it will come down to open looks that just need to go in more often.

It’s good news, overall, that if Tennessee just gets north of 25% from the arc – not a huge ask! – so far, they win. Almost all of the other pieces are there, and the eye test doesn’t show a lot of bad shots going up. But when shots aren’t going down, as has been the case to open SEC play, it seems to be contagious, with only Vescovi immune.

How do we bust the slump? The Vols will have to figure it out against Frank Martin, then at Rupp, then at Memorial, then LSU again, then Florida, then at Texas. The league is good; its only teams outside the KenPom Top 100 we don’t play until February 22 and March 1. Tennessee has the makings of a good basketball team too. We just need to see some threes go in.

Go Vols.

When last we met in the SEC Tournament, the Vols were in a similar predicament. John Fulkerson didn’t play, knocked out of the Florida game the day before. And a shorthanded squad played hard and well, led by Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer. Those two gave 36 minutes; Yves Pons played 39. Tennessee fought but fell, 73-68. But we took it as a good sign headed to the NCAA Tournament.

Against Oregon State in the first round, there was still no John Fulkerson. Yves Pons got in foul trouble, picking up his second with 12:08 left in the first half and the Vols down seven. And before the half was done, the Vols trailed by as many as 19. When missing multiple key pieces, the lineups were unsettled and the Vols had no response for a hot-shooting 12 seed. Uros Plavsic played 10 minutes and scored a single point. Olivier Nkamhoua played six minutes and did not score. E.J. Anosike played more than three minutes for the first time in five weeks. It was a mess, with lineup wheel of fortune one of the most consistent pieces in an inconsistent year, and thus a fitting end.

Last night, Tennessee went without its highest projected draft pick and its veteran hero. Nkamhoua played 33 minutes. Plavsic played 19. The Vols shot just 7-of-29 (24.1%) from the arc.

Yet the Vols were right there all night, ultimately falling to a Bama team that hit three of its seven threes in the last 4:18.

Losses are bad, etc. The SEC should be ultra-competitive, but an extreme scheduling advantage for Auburn has given the Tigers a two-game edge in KenPom projections after one night. We’ll see if or how long covid makes every night an adventure.

But we learned these Vols are not only game for this kind of adventure, but capable. Nkamhoua gave 15 and 9, and hit a clutch three down the stretch. Plavsic had nine rebounds and went 6-of-8 at the line. Zakai Zeigler was just as fearless and effective even without Chandler on the floor at the same time.

There’s a truth about Rick Barnes’ program that continues to work its way through: guys get better, especially when they’ve been in the program for multiple years. Nkamhoua is a legitimate factor on this team every night, regardless of who’s healthy. Santiago Vescovi has become a force on both ends of the floor, getting three of Tennessee’s 10 steals, again, without Chandler. It creates excitement for what guys like Zeigler and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, huge in the first half, can be in the future.

But in the present, Tennessee isn’t overly bold or foolish for suggesting they’ll actually play anybody, anywhere, anytime. This bunch went to Tuscaloosa without its two best players and almost won, and would have if they made open threes. It’s a costly loss in the hunt for the SEC title. But for the grand scheme of this season, it’s another good sign.

Go Vols.

How do you measure the strength of this league?

For the SEC, the national answer has long been associated with what kind of year Kentucky is having first. I’m not sure how much oomph Florida still gets for its back-to-back national championships, now 15+ years ago, but the Gators have carried the banner at times as well.

2006 is a number that matches up well for both the league and Tennessee, with Bruce Pearl’s arrival carrying us into an era of greater success. And since that time, the SEC has had eight teams finish in the KenPom Top 5. That’s always met with varying ultimate success in a single elimination sport. But Florida and Kentucky traded off opportunities at the top: the Gators obviously had Top 5 KenPom teams in 2006 and 2007. John Calipari’s first Kentucky team with John Wall and Demarcus Cousins finished fourth in 2010. Kentucky won it all in 2012 and was two games away in 2015. And between those two years, Florida went 32-4 in the SEC, finishing in the KenPom Top 5 in 2013 and 2014.

The Cats were back in this hunt in 2017, finishing fourth. But since then, the balance of power has shifted. It’s a convenient timetable for us, as the Vols returned to the national scene in 2018. But we haven’t come alone.

In the last four seasons, no SEC team has finished in the KenPom Top 5; no national superpower to sway perception. But the league has found the size of its top tier increasing dramatically.

Since 2006, the SEC has had 3+ teams finish in the KenPom Top 20 just four times:

• Three in 2012: Kentucky’s national championship season also featured a more youthful version of the Florida teams that would dominate the next two years; the Gators were a 7 seed but made it to the Elite Eight. And this was the last great Vanderbilt team (Jenkins, Taylor, Ezeli), now a decade old.
• Three in 2014: The value of getting hot late. Florida ran through the league undefeated, the best team in the land before falling in the Final Four. Kentucky was an eight seed, but they made it all the way to the title game before also Shabazz Napiered. And the Vols barely got in via Dayton, then almost made the Elite Eight. That triumvirate all finished in the Top 15 in KenPom; the next best SEC squad was Arkansas at 44th.
• Four in 2019: Tennessee’s best team in KenPom had company: Kentucky was eighth, the Vols 10th, Auburn 11th, and LSU 19th in the 2018-19 season. We’re coming back to this point in just a moment.
• Five in 2006: Florida wins it all, Big Baby’s LSU squad makes the Final Four via an overtime win against Rick Barnes and Texas, and the Vols surprise everyone by earning a #2 seed. Plus Arkansas and South Carolina finished 19th and 20th, the Gamecocks by way of two dominant performances in Madison Square Garden to win the NIT.

I’d argue the most interesting basketball for your league comes not from having one or two elite teams, but four or five really good teams. We saw in 2019 how many of those really good teams had a chance to advance deep into March. And heading into league play this year, we could be looking at the same thing.

Right now in KenPom: Tennessee, LSU, Kentucky, and Auburn go 9-12. And Alabama is 18th.

When we talk about playing Villanova or Arizona as a Sweet 16 or Elite Eight feel? Coming in, the Vols should get regular chances at those kind of games in league play too. And right away:

Tennessee over the next month has road games at No. 16, No. 17, No. 18 and No. 19 in the current @AP_Top25. And a home game against No. 16.

Wednesday at No. 19 Bama
January 8 at No. 16 LSU
January 15 at No. 18 Kentucky
January 22 vs. No. 16 LSU
January 29 at No. 17 Texas https://t.co/yvJKY2qtT9

— @GrantRamey (@GrantRamey) December 27, 2021

The bottom of the league isn’t great with Georgia and Missouri. The middle…well, I’m unsure how many teams are in the middle. I don’t know if the league will go five deep or eight deep in the NCAA Tournament.

And I’m not sure if one of the top tier teams in the league will separate themselves and earn a #1 seed. But that’s in part because those teams are going to see each other on such a regular basis.

And again, right away: on Wednesday, LSU is at Auburn at 7:00 PM, the Vols in Tuscaloosa at 9:00 PM. If you love SEC Basketball, this looks like an incredible year, one of the best of our lifetimes.

And Tennessee should be in the thick of it.