If Dustin Colquitt signs in free agency and plays in every game this fall, he’ll pass Jason Witten for the most NFL appearances by a former Vol. A whopping 271 games is the current record here, with Witten passing Peyton Manning’s 266 appearances in his final season. I count eight former Vols at 200+ games played via Wikipedia, with Witten 26th among all players and 12th if you remove specialists.
When I was in middle and high school in the 90s, I used to make a list for my grandparents around this time every off-season. After the draft, I’d start writing down where each former Vol was slated to play that fall. My grandparents had Sunday Ticket, and always chose who to watch based on how many former Vols were playing. And in the 90s, the options were bountiful.
Greatness does not guarantee longevity. But longevity guarantees you’ll be remembered. I’d assume there are still quite a few walking around Farragut whose favorite Vol of all is Bill Bates. Charlie Garner ranks sixth in collegiate rushing yards among UT running backs in the 90s alone, then had a longer NFL career than all of them. I knew I could find him on Sundays for a long, long time. In the days when the Tennessee Titans were still the Houston Oilers, it’s how many in Big Orange Country found their favorite NFL team.
What’s also changed since then: how many Vols you can watch in the NBA. And the NBA is much more about the postseason.
Greatness does not guarantee longevity, and it does not guarantee team success (though Charlie Garner played in a Super Bowl and Bill Bates has multiple rings).
Case in point: Bernard King is the undisputed best basketball player to come out of Tennessee. Despite injuries and suspensions, King trails only Dale Ellis (1,209) in NBA appearances with 874 games played via RealGM. Allan Houston and Tobias Harris are the only other Vols to appear in 750+ NBA games.
King played those 874 games over 16 years, more than half of them after the NBA expanded the postseason from 12 to 16 teams. He appeared in 28 playoff games.
Grant Williams has played in 209 career games in three seasons. He’ll appear in his 28th playoff game tonight.
Ellis is the leader here too with 73 playoff appearances. But he only made one trip to the conference finals, with Seattle swept by the Lakers in 1987. Allan Houston made 63 playoff appearances, getting to the NBA Finals in 2000 1999 with a signature moment of his own in the first round.
Those two were on an all-star level: Ellis averaged 21 points per game in that 1987 run, Houston 18 in 2000 1999. (That’s a lot considering that game winner made it a 78-77 final score!)
But right now, both Tobias Harris and Grant Williams still have the opportunity to see each other in the conference finals. That would guarantee a Vol in the NBA Finals for the first time since Jordan McRae in 2016, and the first to play significant minutes there since Houston. Tobias averages 19 points in 40 minutes in these playoffs with the Sixers. Grant is getting 11 points in 30 minutes while guarding, you know, Durant and Giannis.
Even if the Bucks sweep the Celtics, Grant will tie Josh Richardson with 30 career playoff appearances. And if Boston finds a way to advance, he could climb as high as sixth all-time in playoff appearances among Vol alumni. In three years.
Tobias is already fifth on that list, and will pass Ernie Grunfeld for fourth in this round. Should the Sixers advance to the Finals, he could pass C.J. Watson to trail only Ellis and Houston all-time. These kind of postseason, championship opportunities are just something we haven’t had available as Tennessee basketball fans.
For an East Tennessee fanbase with solid NBA options – the Grizz, Trae Young in Atlanta – Tennessee’s on-court success the last 15+ years has finally produced legitimate homegrown options for the next generation of fans. I’m biased, of course, as a kid who became a Celtics fan in the 80s because he looked like Larry Bird. It’s a gift to have Grant Williams on my favorite team.
But it’s probably more of a gift than we give it credit for to have former Vols on any team to still be playing right now.
So when we look back on “the wilderness”, it’s with a healthy degree of uncertainty about where exactly we are right now. Tennessee’s record, recruiting rankings, and draft picks from 2021 will look similar to what we’ve seen for the last 10+ years. But even that similarity trends positive. If four Tennessee players are drafted this weekend (with Matthew Butler, Velus Jones, Cade Mays, and Alontae Taylor leading projections), that would match the second-highest total for Vol alumni in the last 11 years:
Six picks in 2017 (Barnett, Kamara, Sutton, Reeves-Maybin, Malone, Dobbs)
Four picks in 2013 (Patterson, Hunter, Dallas Thomas, Rivera)
And those drafts, of course, came following year three for Derek Dooley and year four for Butch Jones, more time to build on their own terms, etc.
The long view still reflects the wilderness, as Braden Gall’s research showed this week:
In the NFL Draft, the Vols are contemporaries with Missouri, Ole Miss, and Kentucky over the last 12 years. It’s similar to what you find in wins going back through the post-Fulmer era: from 2009-2020, Tennessee went 73-75 under Kiffin, Dooley, Butch, and Pruitt. That .493 winning percentage is likewise 11th in the SEC during that span: just behind Ole Miss (.503) and just ahead of Arkansas (.466) and Kentucky (.463), with Vanderbilt bringing up the rear.
If there’s good news here, it will still feel like bad news in the past tense: though the Vols have won games and sent players to the NFL at only the 11th-best rate in the league over the last dozen years, that’s not how we’ve recruited. Tracking the 247 composite rankings back to 2010 as well, Tennessee is probably right where you expect them to be: still among the top half of the league with the other traditional powers, with a clean break to the bottom half.
Average Overall Recruiting Ranking, 247 Composite 2010-22
Team
Average
Alabama
1.69
Georgia
5.62
LSU
6.92
Florida
10.15
Auburn
10.23
Texas A&M
12.08
Tennessee
14.77
Ole Miss
22.85
South Carolina
25.62
Mississippi State
27.31
Arkansas
27.92
Kentucky
33.69
Missouri
36.38
Vanderbilt
47.54
Despite Tennessee’s struggles on the field and in sending its best players to Sunday, the Vols have still recruited as a Top 15 team nationally on average. The lowest-ranked class in this span was 25th in Butch Jones’ first two months on the job in 2013. He also turned in two Top 10 classes the next two years.
So sure, in the past tense, it’s a strike against Tennessee. But for the present and future, it’s a great sign: this program, through four different head coaches and few winning seasons, was still able to pull Top 15 classes on average. The idea that you can win here in line with the other traditional powers in this league? That still holds up quite well.
Which leads one to wonder, of course, what we might do if more wins began to follow.
In that department, the Vols are currently seventh in the 2023 recruiting rankings, have Nico in the boat, and are in on several other blue chip prospects. And the projections for this fall, before any of those kids arrive, trend toward the opportunity to make some recent history.
Do that, and Tennessee will give itself the opportunity to make some capital-H History once more. The potential for this place never left. And the Vols are edging closer to things looking a little less like the wilderness, and a little more like the promised land.
In the last 14 years, it’s a number the Vols hit only twice. Tennessee went 8-4 in 2015 and 2016 under Butch Jones. Both of those seasons came with mixed feelings, an 11-game winning streak bookended by disappointing outcomes to open 2015 and close 2016. The Vols made plenty of individual memories in that stretch, but couldn’t sustain enough success to create lasting change.
Six years later, our feelings might still be mixed about an 8-4 outcome. If that’s the case, it’s a testament to what Josh Heupel’s team did in year one.
The 8-4 finishes in 2015 and 2016 came in years three and four under Butch Jones. He went 6-6 in year two. His predecessor went 5-7 after Tyler Bray was injured. And his successor went 7-5 by way of losses to Georgia State and BYU, followed by a six-game winning streak to close the year.
An 8-4 regular season would be the best any of Tennessee’s head coaches have done in year two since Phillip Fulmer. And if you believe in diminishing returns – or at least the idea of it – Josh Heupel’s mountain was steeper than any of them considering what he inherited.
In the early returns from our expected win total machine, our community projects the Vols to win 8.1 regular season games. It’ll stay live on our site throughout the summer, then we’ll clear the board when fall camp begins and retake our temperature once we know more about transfer portal outcomes, health, and offseason chatter. Either way, 8.1 is a tantalizing number when you consider it in the form of, “What’s more likely: 7-5 or 9-3?”
Some individual percentage breakdowns we’ll talk more about as we go this summer:
It’s close, but our community gives the Vols a slight edge in a pair of games the numbers suggest Tennessee will ultimately split: a 57.5% chance of beating Florida, and a 52.8% chance of winning at LSU.
We’re still not quite ready to assume a major upset, but the Vols get puncher’s odds against Alabama (20.4%) and Georgia (18.6%).
The numbers suggest Tennessee goes 3-1 in this group of four: at Pittsburgh (65.2%), Kentucky (67.8%), Missouri (73.8%), and at South Carolina (67.8%).
If all of those outcomes held, you’d get 8-4 by way of what we might consider a disappointing loss to a team from that last group, but also a signature win over Florida or LSU. Not all 8-4s are created equal, to be sure.
We think the win total machine does a good job with managing expectations in a healthy way. In that sense, 8-4 might feel like “achievement”: not over, not under, just the head nod and yep, we probably did what we should’ve done.
But here again lies the beauty of hope, bolstered by the reality of the way Tennessee exceeded expectations under Heupel in year one. Tying the best regular season number the Vols have put up in 14 years might feel a little underwhelming at first glance. But just beyond it – well within the realm of the possible – is the kind of season that couldn’t help but elevate your program. A 9-3 finish hasn’t been done here since 2007. If that led to the Outback Bowl, that’s been done once here since then. If that led to the Citrus Bowl, that hasn’t been done here since 2001. If that led to anything beyond, that’s never been done here in the CFP format. And if the Vols won any of those bowl games to finish 10-3, that hasn’t been done here since 2004.
This is the conversation Josh Heupel and this program have built for themselves going into year two, from the ashes of everything they inherited going into year one. Doing it as well as it’s been done around here in the last 14 years is the starting point. And going beyond – and continuing to create real change for this program – is within reach.
Spring practice is over, opening night is two days closer, and it’s a good time to break out the expected win total machine. Tennessee’s number one ranking in baseball will help these next 136 days from here to Ball State pass more quickly. But after spring practice is still a good time to take the temperature, a little more free from August’s optimism.
If you’re new to our site and/or the win total machine, enter the percentage chance you give Tennessee to win each game this fall. Your number against Ball State should be closer to 100; your number at Georgia should be closer to zero, though I’m curious to see how much distance we’re feeling from there this off-season. Enter all of your percentage guesses, and the win total machine will tell you how many regular season wins you expect from Tennessee this fall.
It’s one thing to say, “We’re going 9-3!” and believe these nine games are 100% wins and those three are 100% losses, which is never how it actually works. That’s why we love the honesty the win total machine brings out, providing an expectation that should be both healthier and closer to reality.
When you submit your totals, you’ll be part of our community expected win total. You can also leave your individual win totals in the comments below for conversation. We’ll check back in with some preliminary analysis as we go.
(If you have trouble with the table on your phone, try viewing the page in desktop mode)
Midweek loss aside, Tennessee should have every opportunity to remain at number one for a fourth straight week if they take care of business against Alabama this weekend. The Vols are 31-2, unanimously atop the polls. Depending on who you ask, Miami (26-6) or Oregon State (24-7) is behind them at number two. It’s a scenario we’re not overly accustomed to in college polls: the number one team seems so far ahead of the pack, how many losses would it take to unseat them?
There is much about this baseball run we’re not overly accustomed to, including the stay atop the polls. Three weeks at number one puts the baseball program here in range of men’s basketball, with five total weeks at number one in its history (one from 2008, four from 2019). Shout out to College Poll Archive for the data, which tells us the football team has spent 18 total weeks at number one, most recently in the last six weeks of the 1998 season. Lady Vol softball also spent time at number one in 2007 and 2014.
There’s still, uh, a ways to go to catch Lady Vol basketball, with 112 total weeks at number one.
For baseball, it’s not just the length of stay at number one. It’s the gap this team closed, with the quickness, in arriving there.
In college baseball’s myriad preseason polls, the Vols were ranked anywhere from 16th to 21st. If you start at the bottom, with Perfect Game’s #21 preseason ranking, the Vols have made a jump of +20 in the polls. That’s never been done here in men’s basketball*, and has only happened twice in the Top 25 era in football. Good news on both fronts there: in 1985 and 1989, Tennessee was unranked at the start of the season. Both years ended with an SEC Championship and a Top 5 finish.
*(One update: the 2006 basketball team started the season unranked, then jumped as high as eighth, a theoretical gain of at least +18. I should’ve included them here – Bruce Pearl’s first group is an obvious contender for massively exceeding preseason expectations.)
If you just take the +15 jump from a preseason ranking of 16th in the USA Today and NCBWA polls, we’re still in incredibly rare airspace. In men’s basketball, a +15 jump in the polls has happened only once: 2011, when the Vols opened the year at 23rd before starting 7-0, taking down Villanova to win the preseason NIT and Pittsburgh on the road. The Vols were seventh in the AP poll on December 13, a +16 jump. It went south from there in Bruce Pearl’s final season.
A couple of honorable mentions here:
The 2000 Vols started 19th but went as high as 5th, a +14 jump. They finished 11th, with an SEC Championship and the program’s first Sweet 16 in the 64-team format.
The team we just said goodbye to started 18th, but was 5th in the final poll headed into the NCAA Tournament, fresh off an SEC Tournament title, for a +13 jump.
In football, the Vols have only made four +15 jumps in the Top 25 era:
1985: Started unranked, finished fourth with an SEC Championship
1989: Started unranked, finished fifth with an SEC Championship
1992: Started 21st, and were ranked 4th on October 6 after a 5-0 start with wins over #14 Georgia and #4 Florida. That +17 jump was followed by three straight losses by a total of nine points, a wild year that led to the transition from Johnny Majors to Phillip Fulmer.
2006: Started 23rd, but jumped to 11th in one week after dismantling #9 Cal in the season opener. The Vols went to 7th on October 15 after beating Georgia 51-33 in Athens for a +16 jump from preseason. Tennessee was still 8th and 7-1 overall facing #13 LSU on the first Saturday in November. Injuries disrupted the finish from there.
So in both weeks at number one and the rise from preseason expectations, this baseball team is working in uncharted territory. And there may be more where that came from this season.
There were 18 coaching changes on the FBS level heading into the 2021 season; that number jumped to 29 on the carousel’s latest round this winter.
Timing – not often Tennessee’s friend these last 15 years – is definitely on our side in this regard. Last year, the Vols rode the carousel with Texas and Auburn among major powers, plus South Carolina as our contemporary. The only other power five openings were Arizona, Illinois, Kansas, and Vanderbilt. Boise State came open when Bryan Harsin went to Auburn, UCF when Josh Heupel came here. That’s about it.
The 2022 year one cycle includes Florida, LSU, Miami, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon, TCU, USC, Virginia Tech, and Washington. That’s ten schools who were in the hunt for a national championship at some point during the BCS/CFP era. Then add in Duke, Texas Tech, Virginia, and Washington State in the power five pool.
You need timing to work in your favor to help get these things right. And then, you know, you need to get it right.
It’s impossible to know anything for sure after one year. We’ve seen that play out at Tennessee before. We regularly use Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings on our site, both because they value every snap, and because they’re helpful in separating two teams with similar records.
Here’s a look at Tennessee’s four previous year one seasons in SP+:
Coach
Year
Prev. Record
Prev. SP+
Year One
Year One SP+
Wins Change
SP+ Change
Jeremy Pruitt
2018
4-8
1.2
5-7
5.5
1
4.3
Butch Jones
2013
5-7
15.1
5-7
5.1
0
-10
Derek Dooley
2010
7-6
16.2
6-7
7.7
-1
-8.5
Lane Kiffin
2009
5-7
12
7-6
16.2
2
4.2
This has gone one of two ways the last four times we’ve tried it. Lane Kiffin and Jeremy Pruitt were able to take a step forward in year one, for two very different reasons. Kiffin’s team was solid, which you’d expect just two years removed from Atlanta, and more competitive than their 2008 predecessors. Pruitt’s first team had the luxury of following the program’s low point; even though they lost six games by 25+ points, it was still an improvement over 2017.
Year one for Derek Dooley and Butch Jones took a step backwards in overall competitiveness. Both of those seasons followed two of the better teams we’ve seen around here in the last 15 years. Kiffin’s one-year stint automatically put Dooley’s first team behind the eight ball, and the 2010 Vols finished 8.5 points worse in SP+. Dooley’s final team was competitive with almost everyone, but couldn’t beat any of the ranked foes they faced. Meanwhile, Butch Jones’ first team the next year beat #11 South Carolina, but suffered a handful of blowout losses, ultimately finishing 10 points worse in SP+.
Again, no guarantees after one year: Butch Jones turned in a -10 in 2013, but led easily the best Tennessee team from 2008-2021 two years later by any metric. Some situations just naturally lead to more difficult year ones (or year zeroes, as Derek Dooley would say). And that’s what we thought Josh Heupel was walking into: NCAA investigation, rough finish the year before, late to the carousel, massive transfer portal exodus.
How did Heupel actually do?
Let’s compare him to the rest of the freshman coaching class of 2021.
Uh oh, we changed coaches in the summer
Coach
Team
2020 Record
2020 SP+
2021 Record
2021 SP+
Wins Change
SP+ Change
Tim Albin
Ohio
2-1
-2.3
3-9
-11.6
1
-9.3
Maurice Linguist
Buffalo
6-1
5.3
4-8
-9.5
-2
-14.8
I don’t recommend it. Both of these guys followed local legends too: Frank Solich had been at Ohio since 2005. Lance Leipold won two division titles and finished the 2020 season in the Top 25 at Buffalo. As a result, both of these programs were significantly worse in 2021. No surprise here.
A missed first step
Coach
Team
2020 Record
2020 SP+
2021 Record
2021 SP+
Wins Change
SP+ Change
Will Hall
Southern Miss
3-7
-9.1
3-9
-14.2
0
-5.1
Gus Malzahn
UCF
6-4
10.9
9-4
4.8
3
-6.1
Steve Sarkisian
Texas
7-3
16.4
5-7
8.5
-2
-7.9
Butch Jones
Arkansas State
4-7
-9.1
2-10
-17.9
-2
-8.8
Again, some struggles make more sense than others. Jay Hopson resigned after one game of the 2020 season at Southern Miss, an unusual situation Will Hall inherited this fall.
The other three in this group all brought previous power five experience at championship contenders, with Sarkisian being the hottest commodity in the cycle. And yet, play-for-play, all three teams went backwards in year one. The last time UCF lost 4+ games in the regular season was 2016. Tom Herman’s worst season at Texas was 7-6 in his first year in 2017; Charlie Strong’s two 5-7 campaigns in Austin were far more competitive than what Sarkisian turned in. And Butch Jones got off to a similar start in his first year at Arkansas State in SP+ as he did at Tennessee, though the won-loss record is certainly worse.
Again, no guarantees here – Texas did finish fifth nationally in recruiting – but these were all backward first steps.
About the same
Coach
Team
2020 Record
2020 SP+
2021 Record
2021 SP+
Wins Change
SP+ Change
Terry Bowden
UL Monroe
0-10
-22.1
4-7
-20.3
4
1.8
Bryan Harsin
Auburn
6-5
11.4
6-7
11
0
-0.4
Clark Lea
Vanderbilt
0-9
-18.1
2-10
-19.4
2
-1.3
Lance Leipold
Kansas
0-9
-18.4
2-10
-19.7
2
-1.3
Jedd Fisch
Arizona
0-5
-9.1
1-11
-12.6
1
-3.5
Terry Bowden is the biggest winner of this group, which includes a lot of, “Wait and see.” Vanderbilt, Kansas, and Arizona were all winless in 2020, and combined to win five games in 2021. The situation at Auburn probably deserves its own category; in SP+ and in total wins they Bryan Harsin’s first year was almost identical to Gus Malzahn’s. Stay tuned.
A good first step
Coach
Team
2020 Record
2020 SP+
2021 Record
2021 SP+
Wins Change
SP+ Change
Charles Huff
Marshall
7-3
3
7-6
8
0
5
Andy Avalos
Boise State
5-2
5.4
7-5
9.4
2
4
Marshall is an interesting case study, 7-3 in Doc Holliday’s final season, 7-6 in Charles Huff’s first. But the Thundering Herd lost four one-possession games last year, and were dominant in several of their seven victories. Boise State fans probably aren’t satisfied at 7-5, but three of those were one-possession losses and the Broncos also beat BYU and Fresno State on the road. If form holds here, these programs are off to better starts than their win/loss total might suggest.
A really good first step
Coach
Team
2020 Record
2020 SP+
2021 Record
2021 SP+
Wins Change
SP+ Change
Kane Wommack
South Alabama
4-7
-16.1
5-7
-7.2
1
8.9
Bret Bielema
Illinois
2-6
-4.1
5-7
4.3
3
8.4
Shane Beamer
South Carolina
2-8
-2.9
7-6
3.9
5
6.8
Kane Wommack’s first-year squad almost got both Billy Napier (20-18) and Jamey Chadwell (27-21 OT). They also lost a four overtime game at Texas State and by a touchdown at Troy. Bielema recovered nicely from a 1-4 start to beat Penn State and Minnesota on the road.
And credit Shane Beamer, whose Gamecocks lost to the Vols and Texas A&M by 25 and 30, and almost lost to Vanderbilt in a three-week span in October. Since then, they beat Florida and Auburn, and ran away from North Carolina in the Mayo Bowl. It was a really good year one, good enough to earn him a share of the Steve Spurrier award for best year-one coach with…
A transformational first step
Coach
Team
2020 Record
2020 SP+
2021 Record
2021 SP+
Wins Change
SP+ Change
Blake Anderson
Utah State
1-5
-16.3
11-3
0.1
10
16.4
Josh Heupel
Tennessee
3-7
4.6
7-6
17.5
4
12.9
First, shout out to Blake Anderson. A +10 in wins is twice as good as anyone else on this list, and would be most years. Along the way they smoked San Diego State for the Mountain West title. No complaints about his name at the top of this list.
But Josh Heupel is clearly above everyone else.
He followed one of the toughest and least competitive years at Tennessee with one of the most competitive teams we’ve had here in 14 years. In SP+, the 2022 Vols are the second-best team in Knoxville since 2008, bested only by the 2015 team. The Vols went 1-3 in one-possession games, with two of those losses to New Year’s Six teams from Pittsburgh and Ole Miss.
One forward-looking piece of good news here: when we get overly cautious about the Vols being #9 in 2022 SP+ projections? Tennessee’s rating there is 18.7: just 1.2 points better than last season. The model doesn’t project the Vols to be drastically better than they were last season, because it already believes the Vols were really good.
Again, no guarantees after one year. But not only did Josh Heupel do it better in 2021 than any year one we’ve seen around here, and every other first-year coach last season but one? His team also was better play-for-play than every Tennessee squad save one in the last 14 years. For first impressions, you can’t ask for much more. And it’s created a hope based in performance as much as possibility.
The Jayhawks are champs, and it’s on to 2023, where Tennessee will again find themselves in the national conversation. In the earliest-way-too-earlies, you’ll find next year’s Vols #11 at 247, #14 at Sports Illustrated, and #9 from Aaron Torres. Tennessee currently has the 16th-best odds to win it all in 2023 in Vegas.
Two weeks ago we compared Rick Barnes’ best teams at Texas and Tennessee, noting how three of his best seven teams in KenPom have been right here in Knoxville, including his best-ever squad in 2019. Thanks to great tournament work from North Carolina, the 2022 Vols finished .01 points higher than 2008 Texas, making this year’s team Barnes’ fourth-best ever in KenPom, and the second-best ever at Tennessee.
All of that, of course, leads to March, where all college basketball conversations will end. It remains the biggest difference between Barnes’ peak at Texas and his current run at Tennessee: the Longhorns made the Elite Eight three times from 2003-08, including a Final Four appearance.
Each of those Texas teams to advance to the Elite Eight – where the Vols have only been once – were seeded #1 or #2. As usual, not rocket science: the best teams tend to have the best chance to advance. But we also know full well there are no guarantees on Selection Sunday. Let’s take nothing away from Duke’s Final Four run, or seek to add additional meaning to Tennessee losing in round two beyond 2-for-18 from three. The 2023 Vols will still want to position themselves as high as possible in the bracket.
In the midst of frustration and an early exit, it’s easy to feel more hopeless about the process. Sites like ours exist for conversations about the trees, which can sometimes obscure the forest. And we’re well aware of Tennessee’s brand recognition value when compared to other programs who are often shooting for the top two lines of the tournament.
And in particular this year, it was hard to look at any data on Selection Sunday and find an argument against the Vols as a #2 seed. That’s especially considering the way Tennessee and Wisconsin were handled on the overall seed line from the initial Top 16 reveal on February 19, to Selection Sunday on March 13. The Badgers somehow passed Tennessee in that span on the seed line despite going 4-2 with a home loss to Nebraska and a first-game exit in the Big Ten Tournament, while Tennessee went 7-1 and knocked off Auburn, Arkansas, and Kentucky.
When we look at all of this with a microscope, it can indeed feel hopeless. So let’s zoom all the way out and go for something much more simple: the teams to earn #1 and #2 seeds tend to be the teams with the fewest losses. Set the 2021 tournament aside with covid scheduling issues throwing the math off. Since the last major round of conference expansion in 2016, #1 seeds have averaged 4.55 losses on Selection Sunday (2016-19 plus 2022). Then #2 seeds have averaged 6.25 losses. Even if the selection committee might not phrase it this way, when deciding between two teams on the top seed lines? How often does five losses vs six losses become a simple factor?
Here too, a football mentality might bleed across all sports: did you lose this week? Then you’re going down in the AP Poll. Is your 10-2 of greater quality than their 11-1? Might not matter.
Again, not rocket science: the best teams win the most games. But I do think there’s an important scheduling component here, especially with the SEC having come so far in basketball. In those 2023 way-too-earlies? Arkansas and Kentucky go #1 and #2 in two of them. The Hogs are #1 in all three. Alabama is in the Top 15 at 247 and SI; Auburn is in the Top 15 with Torres. This league isn’t going anywhere.
So for Tennessee, who routinely schedules up, is there a conversation to be had about our own process, and how it best positions the Vols for success?
Rick Barnes does a great job getting games that get his team ready, early and often. That’s a strength, not a weakness, and one I don’t see being abandoned. But watching Tennessee’s offense this year shows Barnes was already more flexible than some gave him credit for. If you’re going to get an abundance of Quad 1 games in league play now, how many of them do you want to chase in the non-conference if the goal is to be seeded as high as possible?
Tennessee Strength of Schedule in KenPom, 2002-22
Year
KenPom SOS
NC SOS
Seed
Coach
2002
5
48
Buzz
2007
7
105
5
Pearl
2022
10
42
3
Barnes
2018
11
20
3
Barnes
2008
13
24
2
Pearl
2006
13
171
2
Pearl
2017
16
29
Barnes
2005
19
153
Buzz
2011
22
27
9
Pearl
2019
25
129
2
Barnes
2015
30
140
Tyndall
2004
30
285
NIT
Buzz
2009
31
21
9
Pearl
2003
32
263
NIT
Buzz
2010
34
160
6
Pearl
2014
36
115
11
Cuonzo
2012
42
167
NIT
Cuonzo
2020
45
79
COVID
Barnes
2016
50
108
Barnes
2021
56
221
5
Barnes
2013
69
104
NIT
Cuonzo
The Vols finished 10th in strength of schedule this year in KenPom. And if you compare what we saw this year to 2018, just below 2022 in overall strength of schedule, note the difference in non-conference strength of schedule (NCSOS). In 2018, the Vols built their resume in large part on non-conference foes (Purdue, Villanova, North Carolina). In 2022, the SEC is even stronger, giving Tennessee a better overall strength of schedule even with a drop in non-conference scheduling.
The comparison in philosophies between Rick Barnes and Bruce Pearl is interesting. Pearl was a master of the old RPI system, routinely getting games against strong mid-major programs who were going to win a ton over the course of the season. As such, Pearl built some of his best strength of schedule ratings by playing seven KenPom Top 100 mid-majors in his six years. Barnes has only scheduled one of those foes (Furman in 2018), and prefers to go after bigger fish.
But a couple of things have changed between their tenures. The SEC/Big 12 Challenge will give you an additional non-conference showdown; the Vols don’t get to handpick their opponent, but when we’re good, they’re good. And not only has the SEC improved greatly, it’s added two games for an 18-game slate. Pearl and company played a 16-game schedule, leaving approximately 14 non-conference games each year. Barnes only has around 12.
Of those 12, history shows Tennessee normally plays:
2-3 games in a major preseason tournament. In 2022-23, it’s the Battle 4 Atlantis (Butler, BYU, Dayton, Kansas, NC State, USC, Wisconsin). In 2023-24, it’s Maui.
1 game in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge; since returning to the national stage in the 2018 season, the Vols have drawn West Virginia, Kansas, Kansas, and Texas.
3-4 other major conference foes, with at least two of them being away from Knoxville. We know the Vols owe Arizona a visit.
5-6 low-major opponents
This means more than half of Tennessee’s non-conference schedule is both meaningful and dangerous. This season, it looked like this:
Strong: vs Villanova, vs North Carolina, at Colorado, vs Texas Tech, Arizona, at Texas (plus vs Memphis)
So again, here’s the question: given the number of quality games you’re going to get in the SEC now, and the simplicity with which the selection committee might default to in choosing the best teams by who lost least? What’s the balance between getting your team ready, and getting them as many wins as possible?
As a fan, I’m incredibly grateful to Barnes and his team for playing so many meaningful games. And without RPI, I’m not sure it’s advantageous to do the old Pearl plan of a few less top targets and a few more strong mid-majors. But will we see a slight adjustment to account for the strength of the SEC?
It’s in Tennessee’s best interests to schedule to bring out its best basketball; you still want that more than you want to eat a dozen cupcakes and come to SEC play undefeated. But part of that best basketball in March is giving yourself the best possible chance to advance. Barnes has done it thrice from the one or the two line; the only other time one of his teams was seeded that high was his best-ever group here in 2019, an overtime away from another Elite Eight.
The 2023 Vols can be good enough to be in that top line conversation again. I’m curious to see how they schedule to reflect it.
When Rick Barnes was hired at Tennessee, one of the early questions was, “Which Rick Barnes are we getting?” From 2003-08 at Texas, he made a Final Four, two other Elite Eights, and won the Big 12 twice. It became success the program had a hard time duplicating, a conversation we were familiar with from a football standpoint. But from a basketball standpoint, Tennessee was much more vulnerable in looking for its third coach in as many years. Barnes’ “weaknesses” still looked like strengths for the Vols seven years ago this week. (The comments from Rocky Top Talk are a good reflection of all this.)
Seven years later, his strengths are indeed now our own: a conference title when picked to finish 13th in the league, a month at number one the next season, and now our first SEC Tournament championship since 1979. The Vols have seven Top 5 wins under his watch, and are 10-7 against Kentucky. And any questions about recruiting no longer exist. The program has signed eight consensus five-stars since 2000; Barnes has five of them in the last four years.
All of that is meant to position you as well as possible in the bracket, when it all matters most. And in positioning, Tennessee has also excelled. The Vols have earned a Top 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament only five times in our history. Barnes has three of those in the last five years.
Heartbreak has followed, of course. Sister Jean. Ryan Cline. 2-for-18.
In this, we’ve found ourselves circling back to one of those first questions: “Can his success at Texas be duplicated at Tennessee?” Approached, no doubt. Approached, and counted as not just progress, but new heights. Many of the things Rick Barnes is doing at Tennessee haven’t been done here, recently or ever.
We’re also, so far, a school with a hard ceiling in March: one Elite Eight, no Final Fours. Sometimes I think this idea makes our tournament shortcomings even more painful: history is out there, just a few wins down the road.
It’s history Barnes achieved at Texas, multiple times, in the peak of his tenure there. So something we didn’t even deem necessary for success here when he was hired – can we be as good as they were at their best –has re-entered the chat.
One piece of good news on that front: in at least one way, we’ve already done it.
Rick Barnes Teams in KenPom, 2002-2022
Year
Team
KenPom
Seed
Result
Notes
2019
Vols
26.24
2
Sweet 16
Lost 2/3 game in OT
2011
Texas
25.93
4
Round 2
Lost 4/5 game by 1
2006
Texas
25.79
2
Elite 8
Lost in OT
2008
Texas
25.09
2
Elite 8
Lost to #1 Memphis
2022
Vols
24.80
3
Round 2
2-of-18 from 3
2003
Texas
23.49
1
Final Four
33 points for Carmelo in F4
2018
Vols
22.27
3
Round 2
Sister Jean
2004
Texas
21.54
3
Sweet 16
2010
Texas
20.75
8
Round 1
Lost 8/9 game by 1 in OT
2021
Vols
19.95
5
Round 1
2009
Texas
19.65
7
Round 2
Lost to #2 Duke by 5
2007
Texas
19.24
4
Round 2
2015
Texas
18.94
11
Round 1
2002
Texas
17.69
6
Sweet 16
Lost to #2 Oregon by 2
2005
Texas
17.01
8
Round 1
2012
Texas
15.90
11
Round 1
2014
Texas
14.52
7
Round 2
2017
Vols
12.62
2020
Vols
10.80
2016
Vols
7.31
2013
Texas
7.02
KenPom doesn’t award trophies, at least none that I’m aware of. But it remains an excellent way to judge the overall strength of your basketball team, and make better year-to-year comparisons. Like SP+ in football, we love it for the way it assigns value to every possession, not just every outcome.
Of course, we’d trade all our highest-rated-in-KenPom stuff for more tournament wins, in a heartbeat. And Tennessee’s only team to advance to the Elite Eight in 2010 is an outlier in more ways than one: that group was a six seed, and finished the year at 18.50 in KenPom. That’s eighth-best among Tennessee teams in the last 20 years. But they won a tight 6/11 game in the first round, took advantage of an upset by beating a 14 in round two, and then cashed in on the final possessions in beating #2 Ohio State in the Sweet 16.
The old joke from football abounds here: the best way to win close games is not to play them. But in the NCAA Tournament, that option seems wildly unavailable, and earlier than we think. Unless you get a significant upset in your pod, you’re playing a Quad 1 game in Round 2.
To borrow Josh Heupel’s line about being in a race against ourselves to be as good as we can as fast as we can? In basketball, you want to be as good as you can as late as you can. One of the best ways to advance in March is to benefit from upsets around you. But in terms of what we can control, which is always a good place to start, the best way to advance in the tournament is to be a really good basketball team all year, and at your very best on Selection Sunday.
Five days later, I think this is still the most painful part of the loss to Michigan. Tennessee checked those boxes like never before, and this team was positioned to give the 2019 group a run for its money as our best ever, in KenPom and elsewhere.
But, at least for me, what we can control also comes into play in how these wins and losses are remembered. The Vols didn’t shoot 2-for-18 because they took bad shots. The loss to Michigan is simple to explain, though still not easy to live with. In this way, I don’t think it will resonate as long as some of our other tournament defeats. To me, the hardest losses to live with are the ones when you felt like you were in control of the outcome with the most to gain/lose; there are still ghosts from 2000 North Carolina and 2007 Ohio State floating around in those regards. And Tennessee’s bracket didn’t fall apart around them, a common thread of both 2000 North Carolina and 2018 Loyola Chicago, which to me is still the toughest loss during Barnes’ time here.
I’m less concerned with what some of Barnes’ teams who struggled more in the regular season did in the tournament. Sometimes teams struggle for good reasons and put it together late for even better ones; here too, our 2010 Elite Eight squad qualifies. In KenPom, you’ll note the Kevin Durant squad from 2007 is only 12th-best among Barnes’ teams in the last 21 seasons. Your mileage may vary on how far a team with the 18-year-old version of one of the best human beings to play basketball should’ve gone. But KenPom is helpful in revealing what a team is capable of over the course of the entire year, not just in its final games.
In those final games, Barnes’ very best teams at Tennessee and Texas have met various degrees of heartbreak. The 2019 Vol squad is, by this metric, his best team ever. But when we think back to that Purdue game, I’m still struck by a general absence of what exactly I’d like Tennessee to do differently. Ryan Cline hit 7-of-10 from the arc, and frustrations with officiating at the end had more to do with the rule than the call. In particular, 2019 was an incredible year for college basketball; the Virginia squad that won it all is one of the best teams of the last 20 years in KenPom, and from the Sweet 16 on they won by four, in overtime, one, and in overtime again in the finals.
If you want frustration with officiating and hard-to-live-with losses, check Barnes’ best KenPom team at Texas from 2011. In the 4/5 game with Arizona in Round 2, I’m pretty sure they lose possession on a five-second call that only goes to four. Of Barnes’ two Elite Eight squads, one lost in overtime, and the other to the 2008 Memphis squad we know well. His team that made the Final Four ran into Carmelo Anthony.
What did those Texas teams who advanced that far do differently?
2003 Final Four: The Longhorns earned a #1 seed, something that’s also never been done here. From there, their path to the Final Four went through a 16, a 9, a 5 (82-78 over UConn), and then #7 Michigan State was waiting in the Elite Eight. Texas won that game 85-76, then lost to Carmelo and Syracuse in the Final Four.
2006 Elite Eight: Playing from #2, they beat a 15, a 10, then #6 West Virginia 74-71, before falling to Big Baby’s LSU squad in overtime.
2008 Elite Eight: Again playing from #2, they beat a 15, survived #7 Miami 75-72, then blasted #3 Stanford by 20. #1 Memphis beat them 85-67 in the Elite Eight.
Again, not rocket science: Barnes’ teams that advanced the deepest in the NCAA Tournament were either a #1 or #2 seed. His three to achieve that at Texas all went to the Elite Eight. And his one to achieve that at Tennessee is, in KenPom, his best team ever, a Ryan Cline miss and an overtime away from the Elite Eight itself.
Maybe this is a lot of words just to say, “It’s hard to win in March.” You self-scout and all those things, and you work to make your own luck; Barnes has never been the guy to chalk losses up to misfortune, even when it might be the best available answer.
But I think the best thing Tennessee can do to win in March, it’s already doing: recruit great players, develop them well, build a cohesive unit that plays for each other, and win basketball games. That’s being done here, over the last five seasons, better than it’s ever been done. It’s being done on par with the best it was done at Texas. It didn’t manifest itself against Michigan from the three-point line, and instead went historically in the other direction. And that hurts the way sports will do you sometimes: it’s great, and it hurts. And it’s great.
The big picture, however, gives me as much reason to believe in Tennessee basketball now than ever. And I’m eager to see them chase the mountaintop again next year.
Many years and one website ago, our old friends at the SB Nation Kentucky site referred to one of their losses as “an act of God.” I remember sharing a good-natured laugh about this at the time: such is the burden of Kentucky basketball, that when you lose, it has to be God’s fault first.
I thought about that earlier this year, when Kentucky shot a billion percent from the field at Rupp Arena. It was the worst statistical performance by a Tennessee defense in the last 20 years (via KenPom), at least. And Tennessee’s defense, as you know, was great. It was one of those things where the simplicity of it made it easier to stand, even when “it” was a 28-point loss to your biggest rival.
Two weeks ago today, Tennessee tied its school record by hitting 12-of-18 threes against Arkansas. The Vols were shooting 43.9% from three in their seven-game winning steak to close the regular season plus the SEC Tournament. We hit 14-of-24 (58.3%) in this building 48 hours ago.
Today: 2-of-18 (11.1%).
Tennessee’s previous low this season was 6-of-39 (15.4%) against Texas Tech. The 11.1% performance against Michigan isn’t just the worst all year, it’s one of the ten worst percentages the Vols have shot in the last 20 years (via KenPom).
I’m not sure I would even lean too heavily on the, “This team can go cold in spurts,” conversation. This wasn’t cold in spurts. There was no spurt. This was the freezer for 40 minutes. With good looks from good shooters. But today, the answer was no.
We almost won anyway. The Vols still had 15 assists, and shot 53.1% from two. Uros Plavsic had nine points and nine rebounds. Kennedy Chandler had 19 points and nine assists. The Vols turned it over just seven times.
But 2-of-18 from three beats you, in March or otherwise.
Credit Michigan for holding up their end, even short-handed. Hunter Dickinson kept them alive and well early in the second half, and his teammates picked up where he left off down the stretch. It’s our third tournament loss to the Wolverines since 2011, but this time there’s no coach waiting to be let go or a charge call we can’t live with.
Nothing is easy to live with in March. Wasn’t the case three years ago when Ryan Cline hit seven threes. Or the year before that when Sister Jean made sure it wasn’t God’s fault, but watched it hit the rim a few times just to keep ’em humble. Or any of the years before that.
It’s never easy. But it is pretty simple today. Tennessee was as hot as any team in the country, then had one of their coldest days in history.
When we lose like this, it’s easy sometimes to think of all the days as cold. Tennessee’s breaks in the NCAA Tournament have often happened next to us, instead of directly involving us. The Vols made the Sweet 16 in 2010 and 2014 by way of a 14-seed beating a 3-seed, then dispatching that 14-seed with ease in the second round. But in terms of a game just going Tennessee’s way in this thing? That’s a harder list to curate, with nothing on it like what happened to us today.
Maybe that’s the hardest part: you can play so well for so long. In Tennessee’s case, probably the best the Vols looked entering the NCAA Tournament ever. You can be hotter than you’ve ever been. And then you can be colder than you’ve ever been the next game. And then it’s done.
I love basketball. It’s my favorite sport. And thus, I don’t like reducing it to, “Who made shots?” Today was an outlier, though one I’m sure will make its way into the aggregate of many a lazier argument about the Vols.
On the whole, this team gave us so much joy. So many good memories in the regular season, the ones you bank away because you know it only ends in heartbreak for all but one in March, and we’ve only been all but eight once ourselves. And then this team won the SEC Tournament for the first time in my life.
There is much to celebrate, and there was much to be hopeful for, and then it’s just done in the simplest way. Whenever it stops being hard, maybe that will help us enjoy everything this group did accomplish more robustly.
Because whatever your list of favorite Tennessee teams is? I hope this one still has a chance to get on it.
One of the best days in sports is relevant right away: the first game of the NCAA Tournament features the other half of Tennessee’s pod in Indianapolis, with Colorado State and Michigan squaring off at 12:15 PM ET. The Vols and Lancers will follow around 2:45.
The go-to numbers all year, with the consistent lone loss coming when the ghost of Joe B. Hall set the nets on fire in Lexington. Tennessee’s best offense is shot selection, and Rick Barnes’ teams continue to set the pace in assist percentage: sixth nationally this year, seventh in 2018, 24th in 2019.
One difference between this team and those: the number of players who can take the lead in scoring. Grant Williams or Admiral Schofield led the 2019 Vols in scoring in 28 of 37 games. This year, Tennessee’s leading scorers have been:
Santiago Vescovi 12 games
Kennedy Chandler 6
Josiah-Jordan James 4
Zakai Zeigler 4
Olivier Nkamhoua 4
John Fulkerson 2
Justin Powell 1
Tennessee’s balance covers a multitude of sins, and helps promote good shot selection. An important recent development here: Kennedy Chandler had zero assists and three turnovers in the loss at Texas. Since then, he’s averaged 4.5 assists to 2.2 turnovers in the last 13 games. In his three-game run as SEC Tournament MVP: 15 assists, 3 turnovers. This offense is accelerating, and he’s at the wheel.
Against their toughest competition, the Vols also found wins just beneath those shooting and assist numbers. They beat Auburn with nine assists. They beat Arizona at 38.8% from the floor and 29.2% from the arc.
As has been the case all year, the Vols don’t need much from their shooting to win, and they’ve been getting that and more for a while now. Since the loss at Arkansas: 61-of-139 (43.9%) from the arc, seven wins, zero losses. Josiah-Jordan James in that stretch: 18-of-36 (50%). Not bad for a guy who went 14-of-63 (22.2%) in his first 11 games this season while recovering from injury.
The defense leads the way, but it can’t win by itself. Tennessee’s two best defensive performances this year by shooting percentage: 30.5% at Arkansas, 31.1% vs Texas Tech, both losses. The good news is, the Vols have mostly solved the offensive rebounding problems that plagued them in the past. Against teams not featuring Oscar Tshiebwe, the Vols went 19-2 when allowing single digit offensive rebounds. They also beat teams featuring Oscar Tshiebwe twice, despite allowing 29 combined offensive boards.
So, what beats Tennessee?
Tennessee’s defense travels everywhere except Rupp. So even when the shooting isn’t there, the defense keeps the Vols in it. What has taken Tennessee out of it this season: turnovers and poor free throw shooting.
Kentucky forced 20 turnovers at Rupp, Villanova 18 in Connecticut. The most painful portions of the losses to Texas and Texas Tech: identical 8-of-16 performances from the free throw line. Tennessee is 16-2 when shooting 68+% from the stripe.
From the few losses we’ve seen, the worst-case scenario for Tennessee is cold from the arc + sloppy with the ball + really poor free throw shooting. Against elite competition, two of the three showing up could be trouble. But Tennessee’s defense has still been so good, the Vols have had their chances in three of those seven losses. If we get back to Villanova, we’ll see if we can take anything from that one.
If the Vols get a good day from their offense, a great day from their defense tends to take care of the rest. Their ball sharing and diversity of scoring options has led to far, far more good days than not recently. And even if shots aren’t falling, taking care of the basketball and making free throws can be enough to win the day.
Tennessee’s best basketball has unfolded beautifully these last few weeks.