Author Archives: Will Shelton

Leading the conversation at church yesterday morning: “Uh oh, Florida’s good again!” And while we don’t have to solve that problem this week, it does go in the math of this week’s expected win total machine.

Will the Gators be the week’s biggest mover among our opinions of Tennessee’s opponents? I felt like LSU was the least predictable game on the schedule going in, and I’m still not exactly sure what to expect from those guys…but I feel better about Tennessee’s chances. I’m curious to see how Georgia’s performance impacts our percentages there as well. Meanwhile, I’d imagine we’re feeling a little better about Pitt, South Carolina, maybe Kentucky, maybe others…

The number won’t improve much by itself by beating Ball State. Where I’ll really be curious is to come back next week, if the Vols beat Pitt, and see if we’re up past 8.5 wins.

But first, how are we feeling about Pitt, and the rest? Enter your probabilities below, and we’ll tally it up later this week:

There’s a psychological component to looking up and seeing those orange V-O-L-S letters, I’ll tell you that much for sure. They last appeared in The Year of Our Lord 1998, we all file away in the back of our minds and the front of our hearts.

But nevermind going back that far just yet. On our list of things we haven’t seen much in just the last 15 years: a Tennessee win by this margin against an FBS foe. Lane Kiffin’s team beat Western Kentucky in their first full-fledged FBS game 63-7 in 2009. Before that, you’ve gotta go back to, you guessed it, 2007 to find the Vols beating Louisiana-Lafayette 59-7 to top tonight’s 49-point win. It was one of the more stress-free evenings in Neyland Stadium in about that many years too, and didn’t take long to get that way.

https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/1565483570491179008

We’ve also apparently reached a point with this offense where you can think, “Hmm, this isn’t Hendon Hooker’s very best game,” and he’s 18-of-25 for 222 yards (8.9 per) with a pair of touchdowns and no picks. But one thing the Vols did for sure: spread that ball around. Ten different players caught a pass. Seven different players caught multiple passes; last year that never happened with more than five.

Something that came up in the opener last year too: Tennessee’s quarterback having so very much time to throw, you worry a little about them getting too comfortable before playing Pitt. Hendon Hooker was sacked once for a loss of one, and otherwise unthreatened. A good start for an offensive line that can really help this offense in that department.

Meanwhile, the Vols held Ball State to 5-of-14 on third down and 0-for-2 on fourth down. Here too, with plenty of room for improvement, the Vols took a good first step.

And Pitt just gave up 5.8 yards per carry to West Virginia, but we got the most desirable outcome: a Panther victory could setup a Top 25 showdown next Saturday.

But before all that, 92,236 showed up to watch the Vols on a Thursday night as a 35-point favorite. That’s the most for a home opener since 2018, and a sharp turn of events from early last season, when the Vols didn’t crack 90,000 for any home games other than Ole Miss and Georgia. In attendance, the closest comparison to last night since 2010 is the BYU game in 2019 (92,475). That’s a healthy, real-life sign of what Josh Heupel and these guys have accomplished since last year, when 82,203 came to the Pitt game.

All told, we got minimal stress, maximal health, a fun season-opening win that didn’t reveal much too much about this team. We’ll spend the next week hopeful the Panthers will discover we’re still full of surprises.

1-0.

Go Vols.

This is my first football season back in Knox County since 2005. I dropped my son off at pre-K this morning in a building full of orange. Life is pretty great these days.

Life should be pretty great for Tennessee tonight, even three years removed from Georgia State making it decidedly not so. If it helps, the Vols were around -26 that night, and are currently -35 with Ball State. There’s a temptation to send out eyes toward the Backyard Brawl, a simultaneous kickoff and one that should tell us much more about what to expect next Saturday than our game will. The weekend contains more of the same: Florida-Utah and LSU-Florida State should offer incredibly meaningful first impressions of teams we’ll see in the next 30 days.

We’ve still had relatively few kick-back-and-relax season openers in our recent past. Last year’s first look at Josh Heupel’s system led to a simplified evening of taking what the defense gave, 64 rushing attempts to 24 passes in a 38-6 ho-hummer against Bowling Green. Before that, ho-hum was about the best one could hope for. Not since the Vols jumped all over Utah State on a Sunday night in 2014 has a season opener gone exactly the way we wanted.

So yeah, free and easy is what we want tonight. And I think we’ve got as good a chance to get what we all want from this team as just about any in the last 15 years.

But the beauty of this sport remains in what we don’t know, the faith waiting to become sight.

Every season tells a story, and they are each unique. And every time – every time, through 15 years since Atlanta or 17 since I lived here or almost 41 since I was born – every time, I look forward to it. And so do you.

We don’t get to hold the pen by ourselves. It never goes exactly the way we think.

We’ve seen Jerry Colquitt get hurt on the opening drive. We’ve seen the Clawfense go down in the same setting 14 years later. We’ve seen Tennessee walk the balance beam with Appalachian State and Georgia Tech in consecutive years, and somehow not fall off. And yes, we’ve seen Georgia State come to Knoxville and win, straight up.

We’ve also seen the Vols roll up to Louisville on the first ever Thursday night game on ESPN and win. We’ve seen a win over Syracuse that had more meaning than we could possibly imagine at the time. We’ve wondered if we were lost, then felt like we were found in the blink of an eye against Cal. And we’ve seen Cordarrelle Patterson burn all our fears of the Georgia Dome to the ground.

So yeah, I don’t know if the most noteworthy thing to happen to the week one conversation will happen in Neyland tonight. I don’t know if, on Monday, we’ll be talking more about West Virginia or Utah than Tennessee.

But all of these stories weave together to make this still-interconnected-for-now beautiful mess of college football. There is nothing else like it. And as such, there is nothing else like today.

Enjoy it. Enjoy it.

Go Vols.

It’s game week, and this Vol squad enters the season with a chance to produce the program’s best year since our last division title in 2007. In the 15 years since, that honor currently belongs to the 2015 team. They didn’t have the emotional highs of Bristol, Florida, and a hail mary from the following season. But they also didn’t have the lows that came afterward. That 2015 group beat Georgia and stomped #12 Northwestern, and was highly competitive with some of the best teams in the country.

Since 2001, the 2015 squad is the only Tennessee team to avoid a three-possession (17+ point) loss. They also avoided a two-possession loss. But they went 2-4 in one-possession games, making them the only Vol squad to lose four one-possession games since Bill Battle’s final season in 1976.

We’ve used these two metrics to help gauge where a season might be headed. From 2017-2020, Tennessee lost 18 3+ possession games, 4.5 per year. In 2021, the Vols lost three 3+ possession games; they were the same ones they were 3+ possession underdogs in. But against Florida, Alabama, and Georgia, the Vols were also more feisty than usual, giving hope that we won’t spend too much longer talking about three possessions to the negative.

There’s clearly room for improvement here:

Tennessee 3+ Possession Losses Since 2001

• 0: 2015
• 1: 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2016
• 2: 2007, 2009, 2014

But this season is also an opportunity to measure progress not just from the floor, but to the ceiling. To do that, the Vols will likely need to excel in one-possession games. Tennessee went 1-3 in such contests last year (on cue: “Referees!”). And that’s been a problem for the program as well.

In the last 15 years, only one Tennessee team has a winning record in multiple one-possession games. That’s the 2019 Vol squad, who lost to Georgia State and BYU but beat Kentucky, Missouri, and Indiana. Jeremy Pruitt’s 3-2 record in such games helped his overall one-possession record finish at 5-3 at UT. Butch Jones went 10-14; Derek Dooley went 3-7.

(Phillip Fulmer, by the way, went 48-23-1. What’s the balance there of talent + confidence + coaching? That’s a fun conversation for a different off-season.)

How has this part looked in these last 15 years?

Tennessee in One-Possession Games Since 2007

Year	One Possession Games	Record
2021	4	1-3
2020	1	1-0
2019	5	3-2
2018	2	1-1
2017	5	2-3
2016	4	2-2
2015	6	2-4
2014	5	2-3
2013	4	2-2
2012	4	1-3
2011	3	1-2
2010	3	1-2
2009	4	1-3
2008	4	1-3

Best way to win them remains not to play them. But at Tennessee, we’ve been able to bank on around four of these a year when the Vols are competitive. Will the 2022 squad just thrash everyone outside of Alabama and Georgia and rise above all this? Maybe, but keep this in mind too:

Tennessee in One-Possession Games 1989-2001

Year	One Possession Games	Record
2001	5	4-1
2000	6	4-2
1999	3	1-2
1998	5	5-0
1997	4	4-0
1996	4	2-2
1995	3	3-0
1994	4	1-3
1993	2	0-1-1
1992	6	3-3
1991	3	2-1
1990	5	1-2-2
1989	6	6-0

Those Decade of Dominance Vol squads played 4.3 one-possession games per year. Again, however you want to argue for talent or Majors/Fulmer instilling the “clutch” DNA, they won them more than they lost them. Tennessee was under .500 in these games just four times in these 13 years.

So from the floor, can the Vols keep everyone within reach? Can we get into the fourth quarter with Alabama and Georgia and think about score, onside kick, score? Do we have a real chance to win every Saturday?

And to reach the ceiling, what will this team do in close games? You want to blow everyone out, fantastic. But if not, can this Tennessee team earn a winning record in one-possession games, just the second UT team since 2007 to pull that off?

The difference between 7-5 and 9-3 is usually what happens in close games. Where will this Vol squad end up?

This week we fired up our Expected Win Total Machine for the first time this fall, looking to establish a baseline for fan expectations going into the year. The initial results from week zero: our community projects the Vols to win 8.03 regular season games.

It’s an almost identical number to the 8.10 we got when we ran the win total machine after spring practice. A lot about this team feels known: system, coordinators, quarterback, eight(ish) starters back on both sides of the ball, etc. As such, we are apparently less prone to a fall camp boost, at least a week before kickoff. No quarterback competition for us to pile our hopes on, no significant injuries to our opponents, etc.

The win total machine uses the word “expected”, which makes this the sentence we’re trying on for size: “8-4 would meet expectations.”

That part feels right to me – I’ve got the Vols at 8.24 wins myself – and an 8-4 regular season would put UT on the right side of their 7.5 number in Vegas. The updated SP+ ratings project the Vols to win, you guessed it, 8.0 regular season games.

In seven days we’ll be immersed in the glorious week-to-week nature of this sport. So for one last time, a word on how far we’ve come to this point.

An 8-4 regular season would match the best year at Tennessee since 2007. That’s 15 years and six head coaches. And in that span, it’s only been done twice. That was years three and four under Butch Jones, and both times 8-4 left us feeling like there could have, should have been more.

Maybe we would feel that way about it this year, maybe not. All 8-4s are not created equal. It’s week-to-week.

But the notion that equaling the best regular season around here in 15 years in year two for Josh Heupel – given the history and the headaches he inherited – the notion that an 8-4 season would qualify as “meets expectations”? As we said after spring practice, that’s a testament to the good work these guys already did in year one.

Here’s the game-by-game breakdown from our win total machine:

Expected Win Percentage by Game

Ball State	98.70%
at Pitt	61.90%
Akron	97.50%
Florida	59.50%
at LSU	48.40%
Alabama	19.80%
UT Martin	98.90%
Kentucky	63.50%
at Georgia	22.60%
Missouri	76.30%
at South Carolina	66.50%
at Vanderbilt	89.70%

It’s what you’d think: assumed wins vs Ball State, Akron, UT Martin, and Vanderbilt. Missouri is viewed as the next easiest contest, with Tennessee getting better than 75% odds. The Vols getting around 20% chances against Alabama and Georgia in preseason is a good start; we’ve been running the win total machine since 2017, and have had plenty of, “Is 5% too much?” conversations about those games. We’re still not at a projection of .5 wins against those guys, where you can round up to an upset…but we’re getting closer.

Among the fanbase, here’s the meat of it: using these percentages, we expect the Vols to get 2.998 wins against Pitt, Florida, LSU, Kentucky, and South Carolina. So the most logical way we get to 8-4 is losses to Bama and Georgia, then 3-2 in those five games.

We’ll keep tracking these numbers every week, but that’s the initial expectation.

What can we hope for?

We throw 9-3 out there at lot for all the benchmarks it would clear, before you really get into fun fantasy scenarios about 10 wins and/or Atlanta. A 9-3 regular season has not been done in 15 years. A 9-3 regular season would almost certainly send the Vols to something better than the “Outback” Bowl for the first time in 18 years. A 9-3 regular season assures you beat at least one of Florida, LSU, Alabama, and Georgia.

It’s not the expectation, nor does it deserve to be yet. And like many of our hopes, it’s hard. Is 9-3 more likely than 7-5? For our community, the answer is yes, barely. The Vols played four one-possession games last year and went 1-3 in them. There can be a thin line between 7-5 and 9-3, but our feelings about those two outcomes would be much, much wider.

But we can indeed hope for it. And it’s a real hope, not a pretend or exaggerated one. Meaningful history is possible, right now.

If the expectation is to do as well as we’ve done in 15 years? And we can hope – really hope – for even more than that?

We’ve got a chance to have a really good time this year.

See you next week. Go Vols.

Our free-to-play picks contest is back! Join us over at Fun Office Pools for our annual community contest.

If you’re new with us, we pick 20 games per week, straight up, using confidence points: place 20 points on the game you’re most confident in (so, Vols vs Ball State this week), 1 point on the game you’re least confident in (…Utah at Florida?), etc. You can pick up til kickoff of each game, and if you fall behind or miss a week, you still earn just one point less than the lowest score that week, so you’re not eliminated via forgetfulness. Week Zero games aren’t included, so our first matchups begin a week from tomorrow. They’re live now at Fun Office Pools:

Thursday, September 1

• Ball State at Tennessee – 7:00 PM – SEC Network
• West Virginia at #17 Pittsburgh – 7:00 PM – ESPN
• Penn State at Purdue – 8:00 PM – Fox

Friday, September 2

• Virginia Tech at Old Dominion – 7:00 PM – ESPNU
• Illinois at Indiana – 8:00 PM – Fox Sports 1
• TCU at Colorado – 10:00 PM – ESPN

Saturday, September 3

• #13 NC State at East Carolina – 12:00 PM – ESPN
• North Carolina at Appalachian State – 12:00 PM – ESPNU
• #3 Georgia vs #11 Oregon (Atlanta) – 3:30 PM – ABC
• #23 Cincinnati at #19 Arkansas – 3:30 PM – ESPN
• #24 Houston at UTSA – 3:30 PM – CBS Sports Network
• #25 BYU at South Florida – 4:00 PM – ESPNU
• #7 Utah at Florida – 7:00 PM – ESPN
• Army at Coastal Carolina – 7:00 PM – ESPN+
• #5 Notre Dame at #2 Ohio State – 7:30 PM – ABC
• Memphis at Mississippi State – 7:30 PM – ESPNU
• Georgia State at South Carolina – 7:30 PM – ESPN+
• Boise State at Oregon State – 10:30 PM – ESPN

Sunday, September 4

• LSU vs Florida State (New Orleans) – 7:30 PM – ABC

Monday, September 5 – Labor Day

• #4 Clemson at Georgia Tech – 8:00 PM – ESPN

Any questions, fire away in the comments. Good luck!

Here we go.

How many games will the Vols win this year? Our favorite way to find our what you really think is back: the Gameday on Rocky Top Expected Win Total Machine launches today, and will be back every week throughout the season.

Enter your percentage guess for each game in the table below (something closer to 100 for Ball State, something closer to…not zero for Alabama or Georgia). Once you submit all your totals, you’ll get your expected win total for Tennessee’s regular season. We’ll keep tabs for the entire community and report back with how we’re all feeling later this week.

When we ran this after spring practice, our community total was 8.1 expected wins. I’m curious to see how that may have changed as we move toward game week.

Enjoy. Go Vols.

Tennessee’s greatest area for potential improvement is in sack rate. Vol quarterbacks went down on nearly 10.5% of their pass attempts, the highest percentage at UT in the post-Fulmer era. It continues to amaze that Hendon Hooker still threw just three interceptions on 300+ passing attempts, a Tennessee record.

On the other side of the ball, where can Tennessee improve the most? When teams get in the red zone, keep them out of the end zone.

Last year the Vols finished 119th nationally in red zone touchdown percentage allowed. Opponents had 50 possessions in the red zone against the Vol defense, and scored touchdowns on 36 of them. It stands out in Tennessee’s losses, as you’d expect:

Opponent	Red Zone	TDs
Pittsburgh	7	5
at Florida	5	4
Ole Miss	4	3
at Alabama	7	7
Georgia	4	3
vs Purdue	6	2

Sometimes, you just get beat by a really good team. Against Georgia, there was little opportunity for any of those drives to go differently once they reached the red zone, where bent = broken.

But in each of the other games, there was at least one really good opportunity for Tennessee’s defense to get off the field. It’s these plays – the ones that can make the biggest impact on the scoreboard – that could make the biggest difference in Tennessee’s defensive improvement this year.

Pittsburgh

• The Panthers got on the board by opening the second quarter with a touchdown on 3rd-and-10 from the 11. This cut Tennessee’s lead to 10-7, and was the first of five straight scoring drives for Pitt.

Florida

• On their opening possession, the Gators converted a pair of 3rd-and-4s in the red zone to cap off a touchdown drive.

Ole Miss

• After the fumbled punt in the first quarter, Ole Miss was backed up to 3rd-and-14 at the 15, but a defensive holding penalty extended the drive and set up a touchdown.
• Leading 17-9 in the second quarter, Ole Miss converted a 3rd-and-10 at the 12, punching it in two plays later for a 15-point lead.

Alabama

• With the Vols leading 14-7, Alabama converted a 3rd-and-Goal at the 5 for a tying touchdown
• On their next drive, Bama converted 3rd-and-7 at the 17, eventually taking the lead
• On the last play of the third quarter, Bama had 2nd-and-12 at the 14. They gained eight yards, then Bryce Young ran in for the score on 3rd-and-4 at the 6, making it 31-17.

The good news: against Purdue, Tennessee’s defense turned the Boilermakers away three times in the second quarter. Though they later allowed a touchdown on 3rd-and-Goal from the 10, their red zone work – perhaps less affected by a thin secondary? – was a vast improvement.

Still, that’s nine conversions of 3rd-and-4+ in the red zone in our six losses. And overall, only four opponent drives came away with zero points in the red zone: two against South Alabama, a garbage time drive against South Carolina, and one of the most impactful plays of the year:

If you’re looking for meaningful improvement, there’s plenty of opportunity here. Whoever the Vols are playing close games against this year, these are the plays that can end up making the difference. Will Tennessee’s overall depth make a significant difference here? And will we see this defense able to impose its will and turn more teams away entirely?

Look, when exactly am I supposed to go to the bathroom during these games?

I raised this concern last year, but that was me assuming I’d only have trouble at Neyland. Listen, this offense is so fast, I can’t go in my own home in peace. I will buy anything with that Power T on it, but adult diapers might be the last straw with my wife. Might also be an untapped source of revenue for our athletic department too though.

And I can’t go when players on the other team fake injuries, because I’m too consumed with that white hot rage. Tried to tell y’all bout that Kiffin feller when everybody wanted to go down that road again after Jeremy. I don’t have no conflicting emotions with that guy, ‘cept for the rage and the restroom.

But God bless Josh Heupel for having one of our boys take a little nap after we kick an extra point. Not only is it a victimless crime, it is actively helping us know when it’s safe to go. I truly appreciate that.

And boys, we’re gonna kick a lot of extra points.

If dudes from Bama think we’re goin’ 10-2, that’s 12-0 easy. Y’all think about all the reasons we wanted to believe in these other fellas. The one because he said “britches”, the other cause he said, “aight?” You know why I believe in Josh Heupel? It’s because I watched us score 62 points on Missouri in like five minutes. We scored 28 points before we played a third down, then scored a 35-yard touchdown on the first one. And then, just when I was feeling a little “I don’t know about all this now” about those black uniforms? They put a 35-0 lead on South Carolina the very next week. And listen, one of those teams got Dan Mullen fired, and the other is doing Steve Spurrier’s proverbial cartwheels to be 6-6! When I tell y’all we were three referees away from 10 wins last year, you know I’m telling a higher percentage of the truth than usual!

Also, “I don’t know about all this now,” is what I said about that NIL stuff. Then we got Nico, and now I have taken on a third job to support the ministries of Spyre. I am genuinely concerned about getting a little bored, fellas. I mean, we’re clearly gonna win it all this year, then add the best quarterback in the nation next year? At least if I’m bored, I can use the restroom.

And we’ve already got the best quarterback in the nation this year! Hendon threw fewer interceptions than Peyton By God Manning last season, and no one really even knows what they’re doing in year zero one! He’s gonna come in second in the Heisman for sure. Cedric Tillman might come in third.

Then I hear people saying things like, “How much defense do we even need to play?” And I mean, sure, the real answer is, “One point less than we score,” which means we need to hold opponents to approximately 99 points per game. But fellas, y’all don’t think we’re gonna be better on that end too? We already know Jeremy Banks picked Hendon in a scrimmage, which should automatically qualify him for third-team All-American, at least. Byron Young and Tyler Baron off the edge?

And listen, some of these dudes are grownups. Trevon Flowers turns 23 round about the SEC Championship Game. Hendon turns 25 (!) a week after we win the natty. Old age ain’t just for John Fulkerson. Does Spyre have a pension plan?

Who’s gonna beat us? Who’s gonna threaten us? My greatest hope in the Pitt game is that we get up so much, they let Joe Milton get in there and throw a couple touchdowns, then just start launching balls into the state of Ohio just for fun.

And listen, Florida? We should’ve beaten those guys in ’14, ’15, got ’em in ’16, ’17…so when you say, “They’ve won 16 out of 17!” I hear, “Yeah, but we would’ve won most of those games easy if we had Heupel!” They ain’t no good. I’m making plans right now for where we’re going to celebrate after it’s over, and deep down? So are you.

LSU? We won the last two times we were in Baton Rouge when the game was over the first time! I’m not sure if there will be any Brian Kelly jokes left after they play Florida State, Mississippi State, and Auburn before us. But we’re coming off a bye, so we might score 150.

Bama? Y’all know we almost beat them last year when Hendon gave his all for Tennessee by getting half his teeth knocked out, right? And still threw for 282 and three touchdowns? Imagine what he can do with a full set of teeth!

Kentucky? Wait ’til basketball season. And Georgia? Let me just say, we had three second half drives against those guys that ended inside their 40 yard line. We were close, boys. We were close.

After we do all that, I’m supposed to be concerned about Missouri and South Carolina? If it wasn’t abundantly clear last time, I’m pretty sure we’ll once again make Mrs. Drinkwitz question her husband’s commitment to winning. And South Carolina will probably get to 7-5 this year, maybe add some backflips to the routine, good for them. Maybe we’ll be up less than 35-0 this time.

In Atlanta, y’all do what you want, but if I had my way, we’d get another shot at Ole Miss. I believe Jeremy’s currently unemployed, I don’t think Arkansas State can make the playoff, and Dooley got Butch’s old job as an “analyst” with Saban. But we can still right this wrong with Lane. We can still right a lot of wrongs.

We all know by now that winning the SEC is the real challenge, so pick whoever in the playoff and take the Vols and the over. 15-0, National Champions, son.

And I don’t know about you, but that thing is looking a little wobbly.

A few months ago we looked at pass distribution under Josh Heupel at UT and UCF. The big takeaway there: in spite of playing at a faster pace, the wide receiver rotation under Heupel tends to be tighter. Last season Velus Jones and Cedric Tillman had 51.9% of Tennessee’s receptions, the highest total for a UT duo in the post-Fulmer era. Numbers were similar at Central Florida.

So I kind of expected something like this for running backs as well. Tennessee had its first scrimmage yesterday, and with Len’Neth Whitehead out for the year and Lyn-J Dixon on the roster, there’s renewed interest in who will back up Jabari Small.

But once you start digging into the numbers, it’s easy to see there’s much less of a “backup” situation in Heupel’s offense.

Total Percentage of RB Carries at Tennessee (Heupel, Pruitt, Butch)

2021	Jabari Small	37.74%
2020	Eric Gray	54.90%
2019	Ty Chandler	38.46%
2018	Tim Jordan	37.61%
2017	John Kelly	61.76%
2016	Jalen Hurd	35.36%
2015	Jalen Hurd	62.39%
2014	Jalen Hurd	56.89%
2013	Rajion Neal	58.11%

In the last nine seasons, the lead back at UT got 55+% of the total RB carries five times. Jalen Hurd was on his way to making it six before he left the team in 2016. And Jim Chaney had a history of involving multiple guys, but leaned heavily on Eric Gray in his final season at UT.

Jabari Small was dinged up a couple times last year, and could’ve seen his numbers climb higher. He didn’t play against Tennessee Tech, then left the Missouri game after just three carries and missed South Carolina the next week. Perhaps closer to full strength, he had a season high 26 carries against Purdue.

There’s no shortage of excitement about Jabari Small in 2022 coming out of scrimmage one:

That dude.@SwainEvent explained on today's show why Tennessee RB Jabari Small has a chance to break out in a big way this football season.

Listen for more #Vols info here: https://t.co/YPVu883xZ2 or anywhere you listen to podcasts. pic.twitter.com/Esg0oEFE2w

— Josh and Swain (@JoshandSwain) August 9, 2022

So there’s reason to believe Small could just take off with this thing and, when combined with Hendon Hooker and Tennessee’s passing game, the UT offense is in sensational hands. But when you look at Heupel’s history, those hands have always included at least one other running back getting significantly involved, and often more than one:

(if the chart looks weird, turn your phone sideways)

Total Percentage of RB Carries under Josh Heupel, 2018-21

Year	Team	RB Carries	RB	Carries	Pct.
2021	Tennessee	371	Jabari Small	140	37.74%
			Jaylen Wright	85	22.91%
			Tiyon Evans	81	21.83%
2020	UCF	365	Greg McCrae	149	40.82%
			Otis Anderson	125	34.25%
			B. Thompson	73	20.00%
2019	UCF	418	Otis Anderson	113	27.03%
			Greg McCrae	98	23.44%
			B. Thompson	87	20.81%
			Adrian Killins	87	20.81%
2018	UCF	431	Adrian Killins	147	34.11%
			Greg McCrae	133	30.86%
			Taj McGowan	71	16.47%

Under Jeremy Pruitt and Butch Jones, the number one back got 55+% of the RB carries more often than not. Under Josh Heupel, the number one back got 40+% of the carries just once.

Maybe some of this is more carries for backups in blowouts. But even in Jabari Small’s season-high 26 carries against Purdue, Jaylen Wright still got 17 carries. The only time the Vols really rode one guy: Jabari Small had 21 carries against Ole Miss, with both Tiyon Evans and Jaylen Wright out. Marcus Pierce got two carries in the fourth quarter.

In this offense, you want your top guy to be great. But you’re still going to need at least your number two, and historically, for much more than we’re used to seeing from the number two at UT. Alvin Kamara had 29.86% of the RB carries in 2016. I don’t think the Vols have an Alvin Kamara as their backup this year. But whoever it is, history says he’s going to get a higher percentage of carries.

And we may not have a 2019 UCF scenario, where the top guy is really four guys. But again, even if Small is both great and healthy, Tennessee is going to need quality touches from its number two. History says the #2 RB matters way more than the #4 WR in this offense.

So…who’s it gonna be?