Author Archives: Joel Hollingsworth

What are Tennessee’s chances for bowl eligibility with South Carolina in the rearview mirror and four games remaining? Let’s take a look.

My new expected win total:

• This week: 5.55
• Last week: 6.0
• After Week 7: 6.3
• After Week 6: 5.0
• After Week 5: 4.9
• After Week 4: 4.55
• After Week 3: 5.5

The dip from last week is mostly just converting the 50% chance of beating the Gamecocks to 0%. I have Kentucky and Missouri both at 50% and Vanderbilt steady at 60%. Charlotte remains at 95%.

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 3-5 (1-4), 5th in the SEC East

• Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
• Beat ETSU, 59-3
• Beat UTEP, 24-0
• Lost to Florida, 47-21
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
• Beat #21 Auburn, 30-24
• Lost to #1 Alabama, 58-21
• Lost to South Carolina, 27-24
• Charlotte, 4:00 PM
• Kentucky, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in Big 12, #12

• Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
• Beat YSU, 52-17
• NC State, Canceled
• Beat Kansas St, 35-6
• Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
• Beat Kansas, 38-22
• Lost to Iowa State, 30-14
• Bye
• Beat Baylor, 58-14
• Texas, TBD
• #17 TCU, TBD
• #15 Oklahoma St, TBD
• #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 7-2 (5-1), 1st in Southern

• Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
• Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
• Beat VMI, 27-24
• Beat Furman, 29-27
• Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
• Beat Gardner-Webb, 45-0
• Beat The Citadel, 26-23
• Lost to Wofford, 31-17
• Beat Western Carolina, 45-43
• Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-8 (0-4), 6th in C-USA – West

• Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
• Lost to UNLV, 52-24
• Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
• Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
• Lost to UTSA, 30-21
• Lost North Texas, 27-24
• Bye
• Lost to LA Tech, 31-24
• Lost UAB, 19-0
• Rice, 3:30 PM ET
• MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
• Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+

Florida Gators

Current record: 6-2 (4-2), 3rd in SEC – East, #13

• Beat Charleston So, 53-6
• Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
• Beat Colorado St, 48-10
• Beat Tennessee, 47-21
• Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
• Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-27
• Bye
• Lost to #7 Georgia, 36-17
• Missouri, TBD
• S Carolina, TBD
• Idaho, TBD
• Florida State, TBD

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 7-1 (5-1), 1st in SEC – East, #6

• Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
• Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
• Beat MTSU, 49-7
• Beat Missouri, 43-29
• Beat Tennessee, 38-12
• Beat Vanderbilt, 41-13
• Lost to #13 LSU, 36-16
• Bye
• Beat Florida, 36-17
• Kentucky, TBD
• #9 Auburn, TBD
• UMass, TBD
• Georgia Tech, TBD

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 5-3 (2-3), 4th in SEC – West

• Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
• Beat Alabama St, 63-9
• Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
• Beat Arkansas, 34-3
• Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
• Lost to Miss St, 23-9
• Lost to Tennessee, 30-24
• Beat Ole Miss, 31-16
• Bye
• Texas A&M, TBD
• Georgia, TBD
• Liberty, TBD
• Alabama, TBD

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 8-0 (5-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

• Beat Louisville*, 51-14
• Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
• Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
• Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
• Beat Louisiana, 56-14
• Beat Arkansas, 65-31
• Beat Missouri, 39-10
• Beat Tennessee, 58-21
• Bye
• LSU, TBD
• Miss St, TBD
• The Citadel, TBD
• Auburn, TBD

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 4-3 (3-3), 4th in SEC – East

• Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
• Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
• Marshall, Canceled
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
• Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
• Beat Missouri, 37-35
• Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
• Bye
• Beat Tennessee, 27-24
• Ole Miss, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Chattanooga, TBD
• Clemson, TBD

The Vols’ future opponents

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 4-4 (3-2), 4th in C-USA – East

• Beat Fordham, 34-10
• Lost to App St, 45-9
• Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
• Lost to UMass, 49-31
• Lost to UAB, 28-7
• Beat Western Kentucky, 40-14
• Lost to MTSU, 21-13
• Beat Southern Miss, 20-17
• Tennessee
• Marshall
• FIU
• FAU

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 7-1 (5-1), 1st in SEC – East, #11

• Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
• Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
• Beat Murray State, 48-10
• Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
• Beat S Carolina, 24-10
• Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
• Bye
• Beat Vanderbilt, 14-7
• Beat Missouri, 15-14
• Georgia
• Tennessee
• MTSU
• Louisville

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 4-4 (0-4), 7th in SEC – East

• Beat UT Martin, 51-14
• Beat Wyoming, 40-13
• Beat Purdue, 40-37
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
• Lost to South Carolina, 37-35
• Lost to Alabama, 39-10
• Beat Memphis, 65-33
• Lost to Kentucky, 15-14
• Florida
• Vanderbilt
• Tennessee
• Arkansas

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 4-5 (1-4), 5th in SEC – East

• Beat MTSU, 35-7
• Beat Nevada, 41-10
• Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
• Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
• Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
• Lost to Georgia, 41-13
• Lost to Florida, 37-27
• Lost to Kentucky, 14-7
• Beat Arkansas, 45-31
• Missouri
• Ole Miss
• Tennessee

The Tennessee Vols missed out on a great opportunity get a valuable win Saturday night, losing to the South Carolina Gamecocks 27-24 in Columbia. They fall to 3-5 overall and 1-4 in conference and still need to get three more wins (with four more opportunities) to become bowl-eligible.

Despite the result, it does still appear that this Volunteers team under Jeremy Pruitt is becoming the football team we all want it to be. Saturday night they were tough and (mostly) smart, and did some really nice things throughout the game.

Tennessee had 23 first downs to South Carolina’s 19, and they converted 11 of 16 third-down attempts. The rushing attack got back on track, as the team ran for 144 yards behind 62 from Tim Jordan and 54 from Ty Chandler. And Jeremy Banks’ move from running back to linebacker this week gave some playing time to Carlin Fils-aime, who carried the ball three times for 20 yards and a touchdown on a really well-designed play call by Tyson Helton.

Quarterback Jarrett Guarantano was again tough, accurate, and safe, going 27-of-39 for 207 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. Marquez Callaway led the receivers with 9 catches for 86 yards, and both Jauan Jennings and tight end Eli Wolf had receiving touchdowns.

On defense, Nigel Warrior was all over the place, leading the team with 9 tackles, and Shy Tuttle had an interception off a tipped ball and a blocked extra point.

Mostly, the team played like you wanted to see them play, and they had a real chance to win on the road because of it.

However, all of the effort and productivity was for naught, and this time it wasn’t undone by too many turnovers, but by too many penalties.

While the Gamecocks had only 2 penalties for 9 yards, Tennessee had 9 for 75. Two of Tennessee’s were costly unsportsmanlike conduct penalties, and five were false starts on the offensive line. Although three of the false starts came during drives that ultimately resulted in Tennessee touchdowns anyway, two of them were late in the game that resulted in turning the ball over on downs precisely when the Vols absolutely needed points.

This was a 50/50 game that turned out about what we expected. The failure to win it really shouldn’t impact our expectations going forward, except for the lost opportunity that another passing week represents.

Tennessee has Charlotte next and then has what appear to be three more tossups to close out Pruitt’s first season. Assuming the Vols get Charlotte, they still only need two of the final three games against Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt to earn a bowl game and the extra practice that comes with it.

The Vols emerge from The Gauntlet mostly intact and now travel to South Carolina to take on a Gamecocks team coming off a bye week. Has the difficult stretch of the last three or four games made Tennessee stronger or has it taken a toll?

Those intangibles will likely be significant factors in this weekend’s matchup, but first, let’s take a look at the stats and comps to see what the Statsy Preview Machine says.

Predictions

SPM: South Carolina 36, Tennessee 19

Eye- and gut-adjusted: South Carolina 28, Tennessee 24

Tennessee rushing yards: 130

South Carolina rushing yards: 130

Tennessee passing yards: 175

South Carolina passing yards: 260

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 140.7 rushing yards per game, while South Carolina is giving up 179.2 per game. To date, Florida is slightly better at defending the run than South Carolina, allowing 163.1, and Tennessee got 156 against the Gators. On the other hand, Vanderbilt is averaging 141.1 rushing yards per game but got only 92 against the Gamecocks, and the Vols’ rushing offense appears to be getting worse, not better.

Based on that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against South Carolina is 130.

South Carolina rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 162.0 rushing yards per game, while the South Carolina run game is averaging 153.7 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is getting 146.7 yards per game on the ground, and they got 95 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 172.3 rushing yards per game and got 126 against Tennessee. So, with the Vols generally holding the most similar opponents to below their season averages, I’m going with South Carolina getting about 110 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 209.9 passing yards per game, and South Carolina is allowing 199.2. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is giving up 218.5 yards per game through the air, and Tennessee put up 172 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama. They’re allowing 194.5 passing yards per game, and Tennessee somewhat surprisingly got 227 against them.

On the other hand, the Gamecocks’ pass defense generally keeps its most similar opponents to well below their passing yard averages.

Based on all of that, my guess is that Tennessee will put up 175 passing yards this weekend.

South Carolina passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 223.1 passing yards per game. South Carolina is getting 250.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is getting 235.6 yards per game through the air, and they got 190 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is averaging 320.5 passing yards per game and got 429 against Tennessee. The Gamecocks generally get more passing yards than their opponents’ averages, so I’m going with South Carolina getting somewhere around 260 passing yards this week.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 25.9 points per game, and South Carolina is allowing 25.8. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is allowing 31.6 points per game, and Tennessee got 24 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia. They’re allowing 20.5 points per game, and Tennessee got 14 against them. Those games were early in the season, and the Vols scored 21 against Alabama and Florida and 24 against Auburn. So, my prediction is that Tennessee will score right around their average against the Gamecocks. Let’s call it 24 points.

South Carolina scoring

Tennessee is allowing 30.0 points per game. South Carolina is averaging 28.8. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 28.4 points, and they got 24 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 34.4 points and got 47 against Tennessee. The Gamecocks offense has the potential to run away with it, but if it’s a struggle, I like the chances of the Vols defense to hold them below their average.

Looking at things from the Gamecocks’ perspective, though, they got 37 against both Missouri (giving up an average of 30.9 points) and Vanderbilt (average of 24.4).

So . . . I’m going with South Carolina putting up about 28-31 points against Tennessee. Calling it 28.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

Left alone, the SPM says South Carolina 36, Tennessee 19, a spread of -17.

With eyeball and gut adjustments, I’m going with South Carolina 28, Tennessee 24, a spread of -4.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 34.2% chance of winning and puts the score at South Carolina 33.7, Tennessee 26.6, a spread of -7.1.

The Vegas spread favors South Carolina by between -7.5 and -8.5, with an over/under of between 53.5-54, which converts to something like 31-23, Gamecocks.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 19.8% chance of winning.

Thursday and Friday

 

 

The Vols don’t play until Saturday night this week, but the slate is full of a variety of tasty appetizers, and they start arriving before you even sit down. Thursday you can get a look at former Vols opponent West Virginia (and also former Vol and current Baylor Bear Jalen Hurd), and on Friday, you can see what new UCLA head coach Chip Kelly is up to as his team takes on No. 23 Utah.

Gameday

 

On Gameday, a couple of Top 25 teams are in action at noon, including No. 2 Clemson taking on new FSU head coach Willie Taggart.

The afternoon is all about the World’s Largest Stupid Game Between Two Stupid Tennessee Rivals, but you can also get an early look at two future Vols opponents as No. 12 Kentucky travels to Missouri.

And then the Vols kickoff at South Carolina at 7:30 on the SEC Network. Go Vols. Beat the Gamecocks.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

You’d expect the Vols’ national stat rankings to take a hit after playing Georgia, Auburn, and a historically good Alabama team all in a row, and you do see some of that. But Tennessee seems to have survived that stretch without too much dropoff, and when you compare things to this time last year, you might just be encouraged.

Offense

The Tennessee offense is doing some things really well and some things not well at all, but most the offense is stuck in that middle not-great-not-terrible territory. Overall, though, it is better than this time last year, when it was all just plain terrible.

Defense

I think maybe the most important takeaway here is that Rushing Defense has improved fairly significantly. Great defenses tend to start there and build off it.

Special Teams

Turnovers and Penalties

 

Tennessee got thumped good by Alabama this weekend, but how did the other teams look, and how does it all affect our expectations for the back half of the season?

My new expected win total:

• This week: 6.0
• Last week: 6.3
• After Week 6: 5.0
• After Week 5: 4.9
• After Week 4: 4.55
• After Week 3: 5.5

I have Kentucky steady at 45%, Missouri and South Carolina steady at 50%, Vanderbilt up to 60% (from 75% last week), and Charlotte steady at 95%. Not much change, really. I think we’re basically looking at four essential tossups, with the order being Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt, with there being a bit of space between the Commodores and the other three.

Use the form below to calculate yours and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 3-4 (1-3), 5th in the SEC East

• Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
• Beat ETSU, 59-3
• Beat UTEP, 24-0
• Lost to Florida, 47-21
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
• Beat #21 Auburn, 30-24
• Lost to #1 Alabama, 58-21
• S Carolina, TBD
• Charlotte, TBD
• Kentucky, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 5-1 (3-1), 2nd in Big 12, #13

• Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
• Beat YSU, 52-17
• NC State, Canceled
• Beat Kansas St, 35-6
• Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
• Beat Kansas, 38-22
• Lost to Iowa State, 30-14
• Bye
• Baylor, 7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1
• Texas, TBD
• #17 TCU, TBD
• #15 Oklahoma St, TBD
• #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 6-2 (4-1), 1st in Southern

• Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
• Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
• Beat VMI, 27-24
• Beat Furman, 29-27
• Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
• Beat Gardner-Webb, 45-0
• Beat The Citadel, 26-23
• Lost to Wofford, 31-17
• W Carolina, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
• Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 0-7 (0-3), 6th in C-USA – West

• Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
• Lost to UNLV, 52-24
• Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
• Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
• Lost to UTSA, 30-21
• Lost North Texas, 27-24
• Bye
• Lost to LA Tech, 31-24
• UAB, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
• Rice, 3:30 PM ET
• MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
• Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+

Florida Gators

Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in SEC – East, #9

• Beat Charleston So, 53-6
• Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
• Beat Colorado St, 48-10
• Beat Tennessee, 47-21
• Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
• Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-27
• Bye
• #2 Georgia*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
• Missouri, TBD
• S Carolina, TBD
• Idaho, TBD
• Florida State, TBD

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in SEC – East, #7

• Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
• Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
• Beat MTSU, 49-7
• Beat Missouri, 43-29
• Beat Tennessee, 38-12
• Beat Vanderbilt, 41-13
• Lost to #13 LSU, 36-16
• Bye
• Florida*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
• Kentucky, TBD
• #9 Auburn, TBD
• UMass, TBD
• Georgia Tech, TBD

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 5-3 (2-3), 4th in SEC – West

• Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
• Beat Alabama St, 63-9
• Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
• Beat Arkansas, 34-3
• Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
• Lost to Miss St, 23-9
• Lost to Tennessee, 30-24
• Beat Ole Miss, 31-16
• Texas A&M, TBD
• Georgia, TBD
• Liberty, TBD
• Alabama, TBD

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 8-0 (5-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

• Beat Louisville*, 51-14
• Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
• Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
• Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
• Beat Louisiana, 56-14
• Beat Arkansas, 65-31
• Beat Missouri, 39-10
• Beat Tennessee, 58-21
• LSU, TBD
• Miss St, TBD
• The Citadel, TBD
• Auburn, TBD

The Vols’ future opponents

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 3-3 (2-3), 4th in SEC – East

• Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
• Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
• Marshall, Canceled
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
• Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
• Beat Missouri, 37-35
• Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
• Bye
• Tennessee, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Chattanooga, TBD
• Clemson, TBD

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 3-4 (2-2), 4th in C-USA – East

• Beat Fordham, 34-10
• Lost to App St, 45-9
• Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
• Lost to UMass, 49-31
• Lost to UAB, 28-7
• Beat Western Kentucky, 40-14
• Lost to MTSU, 21-13
• Southern Miss, 2:00 PM ET
• Tennessee, TBD
• Marshall, 2:30 PM ET ESPN+
• FIU, 2:00 PM ET
• FAU, 6:00 PM ET

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 6-1 (4-1), 1st in SEC – East, #12

• Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
• Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
• Beat Murray State, 48-10
• Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
• Beat S Carolina, 24-10
• Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
• Bye
• Beat Vanderbilt, 14-7
• Missouri, TBD
• Georgia, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• MTSU, TBD
• Louisville, TBD

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 4-3 (0-3), 6th in SEC – East

• Beat UT Martin, 51-14
• Beat Wyoming, 40-13
• Beat Purdue, 40-37
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
• Lost to South Carolina, 37-35
• Lost to Alabama, 39-10
• Beat Memphis, 65-33
• Kentucky, TBD
• Florida, TBD
• Vanderbilt, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD
• Arkansas, 2:30 PM ET CBS

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 3-5 (0-4), 7th in SEC – East

• Beat MTSU, 35-7
• Beat Nevada, 41-10
• Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
• Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
• Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
• Lost to Georgia, 41-13
• Lost to Florida, 37-27
• Lost to Kentucky, 14-7
• Arkansas, TBD
• Missouri, TBD
• Ole Miss, TBD
• Tennessee, TBD