Author Archives: Joel Hollingsworth

Thursday, Friday

 

 

Hey, football’s almost over. Squeeze it in while you can. Don’t dwell on the fact that Syracuse is No. 13 and Fresno State is ranked.

Gameday

 

The main thing to watch in the noon slate this week is former opponents South Carolina and Florida. We want bad things for Florida more than we want bad things for South Carolina, right?

No. 11 Kentucky comes to Neyland Stadium to take on the Vols at 3:30 on the SEC Network. It’s important.

If you’re interested and perhaps a bit delusional, maybe Mississippi State at Alabama could be interesting. Hahahahahahaha. Bedlam is often fun, though, so keep an eye on the end of that game.

And finally, No. 24 Auburn travels to Georgia to take on the Bulldogs at 7:00 on ESPN. War Eagle.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

What you’re hoping to see here is progress, both from 2017 and from the end of the difficult October slate to last week’s Homecoming game.

Offense

This is a mixed bag, at least when comparing post-Charlotte to post-Gauntlet. Some slight positive movement in the passing game is balanced out by some slight negative movement in most other offensive categories. When the red and orange starts stair-stepping into the greens, your team is getting worse.

On the other hand, when you compare to 2017, it’s nice to see “half green” instead of “one green.”

Defense

Now this is more like it. Modest improvement this week across the board on defense, with the exception of Red Zone Defense. Rushing Defense is significantly better this year than last, as is the team’s ability to generate interceptions and stop opposing offenses on third down. Total Defense and First Downs Defense are both quite a bit better already in Jeremy Pruitt’s first year. The team does still need work in the red zone.

Special Teams

Turnovers and Penalties

Those six turnovers against Florida continue to haunt this season.

What are Tennessee’s chances for bowl eligibility with three games remaining? It depends on how you view the Vols’ outing against Charlotte, how their past opponents looked this past weekend, and how those three remaining opponents have looked so far. Here’s how it all shakes out for me.

First, I’ve been saying all season that I thought Tennessee’s chances of winning the Charlotte game was somewhere between 90-99%. See the graphic below for proof.

So I was surprised when our Statsy Preview Machine last Thursday spit out a mere three-point prediction for the Vols. I was surprised enough not to embrace it and put my own prediction at 34-17, but the machine coughing that up — along with S&P+ suggesting the Vols wouldn’t cover the Vegas spread — did have the effect of preparing me for a battle no one was really expecting.

And hey, football is weird. It’s a contest, and your team’s performance any given week is a product not only of how good your team is and how well it did that day but also how good its opponent is and how good they played that day. And even though we never really know how to weigh each of those factors any given week, we always seem to jump right to the conclusion that our team is either awesome or terrible regardless of any of the other three factors.

Me, I think Charlotte’s defense might be pretty good, particularly at stopping the run, and for an offense having trouble running the ball, that can cause real problems. So, I don’t know that Saturday really tells us much more about the Vols that we didn’t already know. Still, although it wasn’t cause for writing off the rest of the season, it was cause for some degree of readjustment of expectations.

The other thing that happened that changed things this week was that Missouri beat Florida, which is bad news for Vols fans.

Anyway, here’s how I’ve switched up my expectations after this weekend.

My new expected win total:

• This week: 5.3
• Last week: 5.55
• After Week 8: 6.0
• After Week 7: 6.3
• After Week 6: 5.0
• After Week 5: 4.9
• After Week 4: 4.55
• After Week 3: 5.5

I docked the Vols a bit for the performance against Charlotte, so I changed Kentucky and Missouri from 50% to 40%. Kentucky did about as well against Georgia as I expected, but Missouri beating Florida the way they did was a surprise, so I put them ahead of Kentucky. Vanderbilt, who didn’t play, went from 60% to 50%. I’m basically thinking we’ll get one of the next three instead of the two we need, but those other two are close enough to tossups that I think they could go our way.

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 4-5 (1-4), 5th in the SEC East

• Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
• Beat ETSU, 59-3
• Beat UTEP, 24-0
• Lost to Florida, 47-21
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 38-12
• Beat #21 Auburn, 30-24
• Lost to #1 Alabama, 58-21
• Lost to South Carolina, 27-24
• Beat Charlotte, 14-3
• Kentucky
• Missouri
• Vanderbilt

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 7-1 (5-1), 1st in Big 12, #7

• Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
• Beat YSU, 52-17
• NC State, Canceled
• Beat Kansas St, 35-6
• Beat #25 Texas Tech, 42-34
• Beat Kansas, 38-22
• Lost to Iowa State, 30-14
• Bye
• Beat Baylor, 58-14
• Beat #17 Texas, 42-41
• #17 TCU
• #15 Oklahoma St.
• #5 Oklahoma

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 8-2 (6-1), 1st in Southern

• Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
• Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
• Beat VMI, 27-24
• Beat Furman, 29-27
• Beat Chattanooga, 17-14
• Beat Gardner-Webb, 45-0
• Beat The Citadel, 26-23
• Lost to Wofford, 31-17
• Beat Western Carolina, 45-43
• Beat Mercer, 21-18
• Samford, 1:00 PM ET

UTEP Miners

Current record: 1-8 (1-4), 6th in C-USA – West

• Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
• Lost to UNLV, 52-24
• Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
• Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
• Lost to UTSA, 30-21
• Lost North Texas, 27-24
• Bye
• Lost to LA Tech, 31-24
• Lost UAB, 19-0
• Beat Rice, 34-26
• MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
• W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
• Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+

Florida Gators

Current record: 6-3 (4-3), 3rd in SEC – East, #19

• Beat Charleston So, 53-6
• Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
• Beat Colorado St, 48-10
• Beat Tennessee, 47-21
• Beat #14 Miss St, 13-6
• Beat #5 LSU, 27-19
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-27
• Bye
• Lost to #7 Georgia, 36-17
• Lost to Missouri, 38-17
• S Carolina, TBD
• Idaho, TBD
• Florida State, TBD

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 8-1 (6-1), 1st in SEC – East, #5

• Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
• Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
• Beat MTSU, 49-7
• Beat Missouri, 43-29
• Beat Tennessee, 38-12
• Beat Vanderbilt, 41-13
• Lost to #13 LSU, 36-16
• Bye
• Beat Florida, 36-17
• Beat #9 Kentucky, 34-17
• Auburn
• UMass
• Georgia Tech

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 6-3 (3-3), 3rd in SEC – West

• Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
• Beat Alabama St, 63-9
• Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
• Beat Arkansas, 34-3
• Beat Southern Miss, 24-13
• Lost to Miss St, 23-9
• Lost to Tennessee, 30-24
• Beat Ole Miss, 31-16
• Bye
• Beat #20 Texas A&M, 28-24
• Georgia
• Liberty
• Alabama

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 9-0 (6-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

• Beat Louisville*, 51-14
• Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
• Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
• Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
• Beat Louisiana, 56-14
• Beat Arkansas, 65-31
• Beat Missouri, 39-10
• Beat Tennessee, 58-21
• Bye
• Beat #3 LSU, 29-0
• Miss St
• The Citadel
• Auburn

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 5-3 (4-3), 3rd in SEC – East

• Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
• Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
• Marshall, Canceled
• Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
• Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
• Beat Missouri, 37-35
• Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
• Bye
• Beat Tennessee, 27-24
• Beat Ole Miss, 48-44
• Florida
• Chattanooga
• Clemson

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 4-5 (3-2), 3rd in C-USA – East

• Beat Fordham, 34-10
• Lost to App St, 45-9
• Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
• Lost to UMass, 49-31
• Lost to UAB, 28-7
• Beat Western Kentucky, 40-14
• Lost to MTSU, 21-13
• Beat Southern Miss, 20-17
• Lost to Tennessee, 14-3
• Marshall
• FIU
• FAU

The Vols’ future opponents

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 7-2 (5-2), 2nd in SEC – East, #12

• Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
• Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
• Beat Murray State, 48-10
• Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
• Beat S Carolina, 24-10
• Lost to Texas A&M, 20-14
• Bye
• Beat Vanderbilt, 14-7
• Beat Missouri, 15-14
• Lost to Georgia, 34-17
• Tennessee
• MTSU
• Louisville

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-4 (1-4), 5th in SEC – East

• Beat UT Martin, 51-14
• Beat Wyoming, 40-13
• Beat Purdue, 40-37
• Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
• Lost to South Carolina, 37-35
• Lost to Alabama, 39-10
• Beat Memphis, 65-33
• Lost to Kentucky, 15-14
• Beat #11 Florida, 38-17
• Vanderbilt
• Tennessee
• Arkansas

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 4-5 (1-4), 5th in SEC – East

• Beat MTSU, 35-7
• Beat Nevada, 41-10
• Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
• Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
• Beat Tennessee St, 31-27
• Lost to Georgia, 41-13
• Lost to Florida, 37-27
• Lost to Kentucky, 14-7
• Beat Arkansas, 45-31
• Bye
• Missouri
• Ole Miss
• Tennessee

Friday

 

Hey, it’s football.

Gameday

 

There are a lot of great games this weekend. The noon slate starts off a bit slow, but you can warm up with a contest between former opponent Auburn and Texas A&M on ESPN.

The Vols game against Charlotte is on the SEC Network Alternate channel at 4:00, but there are a lot of other terrific games in the afternoon time slot, so be prepared to either work your DVR overtime if you absolutely must watch every minute of the Tennessee game or to channel hop like crazy. The most important other game is a Top 10 matchup on CBS between No. 9 Kentucky and No. 6 Georgia for the SEC East. We get Kentucky next week. But there’s also a Top 15 matchup between No. 5 Michigan and No. 14 Penn State on ESPN. You can also keep an eye on No. 13 (and former opponent) West Virginia against No. 17 Texas. And as if that wasn’t enough, there’s also a game between future opponent Missouri against former opponent No. 11 Florida on the SECN at 4:00. Whew. But most of all, Go Vols. It could be an unexpected fight.

And then the evening features a huge game between No. 1 Alabama and No. 3 LSU on CBS. Fun!

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

Numbers know no context. Sometimes that’s a good thing, and sometimes that’s a bad thing, and often you don’t know which is the case. Our Statsy Preview Machine thinks this weekend’s game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Charlotte 49ers is going to be a lot closer and a lot more uncomfortable for Vols fans than we expect or want it to be.

But the SPM also doesn’t know that Charlotte plays in Conference USA while Tennessee plays in the SEC, and it doesn’t know that Tennessee’s strength of schedule ranks 7th in the nation while Charlotte’s ranks 120th. And it doesn’t know that there’s an improvement curve associated with teams under new head coaches and that Tennessee’s is probably accelerated.

So, this week’s statsy preview calls for a healthy dose of human adjustment, but the numbers also seem to suggest more moderation than we probably would otherwise.

Predictions

SPM: Tennessee 22, Charlotte 19

Eye- and gut-adjusted: Tennessee 34, Charlotte 17

Tennessee rushing yards: 120

Charlotte rushing yards: 100

Tennessee passing yards: 250

Charlotte passing yards: 180

Tennessee rushing

Right out of the gate, the numbers make you go, “Huh?” Charlotte’s rushing defense, which is giving up only 89.8 yards per game, is 6th in the nation. Alabama’s is ranked 21st, giving up 113.4 yards per game to an SEC schedule.

Still, the Vols got only 31 rushing yards against the Tide. Against Auburn (No. 27 with 125.5), Tennessee got only 68.

The fact that Charlotte’s numbers have been compiled primarily against a C-USA slate certainly calls for an eye-and-gut adjustment, but Tennessee’s struggle to run the ball consistently is still a cause for concern.

Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Charlotte is 120 yards.

Charlotte rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 169.8 rushing yards per game, while the Charlotte run game is averaging 143.0 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is getting 130.8 yards per game on the ground, and they got 95 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia, which is averaging 147.9 rushing yards per game and got 118 against Tennessee.

With an eye-and-gut adjustment, I’m guessing Charlotte will get about 100 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 209.5 passing yards per game. Charlotte, allowing 228.9 passing yards per game, features the worst passing defense the Vols have played this year.

With the exception of ETSU, the closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn. They’re allowing 222.5 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 328 against them.

The productivity through the air for the Vols against Auburn was primarily talent, but there was also a fair amount of luck involved, so my guess is that Tennessee will put up somewhere around 250 passing yards this weekend.

Charlotte passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 214.3 passing yards per game. Charlotte is getting 197.3. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is getting 165.5 yards per game through the air, and they got 39 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 197.8 passing yards per game and got 186 against Tennessee. I’m going with Charlotte putting up about 180 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 25.6 points per game, and Charlotte is allowing 26.1. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is allowing 30.0 points per game, and Tennessee got 24 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina. They’re allowing 25.6 points per game, and Tennessee got 24 against them.

That seems to suggest that Tennessee generally gets what the scoring defense gives. But with eye-and-gut-and-C-USA adjustments, my prediction is that Tennessee will score around 34 points against Charlotte.

Charlotte scoring

Tennessee is allowing 29.6 points per game. Charlotte is averaging 22.8. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is UTEP, which is averaging 15.4 points, and they got 0 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Auburn, which is averaging 28.4 points and got 24 against Tennessee. I’m going with Charlotte putting up about 17 points against Tennessee.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

The Vegas spread favors Tennessee by 21, with an over/under of 46-47, which converts to something like 34-13, Vols.

Left alone, the SPM says Tennessee 22, Charlotte 19, a spread of only -3.

With eyeball and gut adjustments, I’m going with Tennessee 34, Charlotte 17, a spread of -17.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 78% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 35, Charlotte 21.6, a spread of only -13.4.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 93.7% chance of winning.

Offense

 

Defense

 

Special Teams

Turnovers and Penalties