Author Archives: Joel Hollingsworth

The Tennessee Volunteers — who dropped to No. 5 in the polls and No. 6 in the NET, but maintained a projected 1-seed in the Bracket Matrix — host Vanderbilt tonight at 7:00 on ESPN.

As we did with the Kentucky game this past weekend, let’s take a look at the teams’ respective four factors numbers, first as a straight-up comparison and then in the context of their opponent.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

• Tennessee 56.5 (No. 8) (down from 56.9 (No. 7))
• Vanderbilt 50.3 (No. 198) (Kentucky’s was 52.8 (No. 93))

Turnover %

• Tennessee 15.8 (No. 21) (up from 15.9 (No. 25))
• Vanderbilt 19.9 (No. 255) (Kentucky’s was 18.5 (No. 158))

Offensive Rebound %

• Tennessee 32.0 (No. 66) (down from 32.3 (No. 58))
• Vanderbilt 28.6 (No. 178) (Kentucky’s was 38.3 (No. 3))

Free Throw Rate

• Tennessee 36.0 (No. 107) (down from 36.3 (No. 102))
• Vanderbilt 44.8 (No. 7) (Kentucky’s was 41 (No. 22))

Straight-up conclusions

The Vols are a better-shooting team than the Commodores and should have the advantage, although the same should have been true against Kentucky but wasn’t. Vanderbilt is a worse-shooting team than Kentucky, so there’s that.

It’s pretty much the same story for turnover percentage. Tennessee is generally much better than Vanderbilt at protecting the ball, and Vandy is even more generous than Kentucky.

Here’s some good news. Kentucky is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation, and, well, Vanderbilt is not. The Vols should have an advantage here.

And here’s some bad news. The Commodores are even better at getting to the free throw line than the Wildcats. Notably, both teams are much better at getting freebie opportunities than the Vols. Advantage, Vandy.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s EFG% is 56.5 (No. 8), while Vanderbilt’s defense against that is 48.5 (No. 75). They’re only marginally worse than Kentucky, which was 47.5 (No. 45) heading into last Saturday’s game.

We said prior to the Kentucky game that the Wildcats were probably going to give Tennessee’s usually-potent shooting offense some trouble, and that turned out to be the case in spades. Vanderbilt could present some of the same challenges, although I think the renewed focus that a bad loss in front of a national audience generally produces will pay dividends and that it should be okay tonight.

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Vanderbilt’s shooting offense is 50.3 (No. 198), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 47.2 (No. 36). The Vols should have some success at minimizing the Commodores’ shooting percentage.

Conclusions

Tennessee may not get its shooting groove completely back tonight, but they should have more success than they did Saturday in Rupp, and I don’t think Vanderbilt’s going to dominate the shooting percentages from both the field and the arc like Kentucky did against the Vols.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s turnover % is 15.8 (No. 21), while Vanderbilt’s turnover defense is 16.1 (No. 316). This is the biggest statistical advantage of the game for the Vols’ offense. How close can they get to a turnover-free game?

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Vandy’s turnover % is 19.9 (No. 255), while Tennessee’s turnover defense is 19.0 (No. 157).

Conclusions

Tennessee’s offense should play a pretty clean game tonight from a turnover perspective. Expect them to win comfortably on the statsheet in the turnover category.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 32.0 (No. 66), while Vanderbilt’s defense in that category is 28.2 (No. 176).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Vanderbilt’s OR% is 26.8 (No. 178), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 30.7 (No. 273). Tennessee’s not good at keeping opponents off the offensive glass, but at least the Commodores aren’t as much of a threat in this area as Kentucky.

Conclusions

The Vols should have a rebounding advantage here despite not having a very good rebounding resume. I’m anxious to see what results a renewed focus on rebounding might produce for the Vols tonight. Preventing offensive rebounds, in particular, is an area that Tennessee really needs to improve on in a hurry.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 36.0 (No. 107), while Vanderbilt’s defense against that is 34.9 (No. 227).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Vanderbilt’s FT Rate is 44.8 (No. 7), which is even better than Kentucky’s. Tennessee’s ability to keep opponents off the foul line is 33.8 (No. 201). (This figure took a major hit Saturday — it was 32.8 (No. 164) heading into Saturday’s game.) This is Vanderbilt’s biggest advantage tonight.

Conclusions

How much of Saturday’s inequity at the foul line was attributable to Tennessee’s actual ability and performance, and how much was due to playing at Rupp? I think we might get some clues to the answer tonight. The truth is that Vanderbilt, like Kentucky, is generally better at getting to the foul line, and Tennessee is not nearly as good at that as it needs to be.

But fixing this will probably be a point of emphasis for the Vols tonight. Regardless, if Vanderbilt ends up at the foul line a lot more than Tennessee tonight, the first one to make the joke about the Rupparees stowing away on Tennessee’s team bus gets a prize.

Summary and Score Prediction

As you’d expect in a game between a highly-ranked team and one that hasn’t yet won a conference game, Tennessee sports some big advantages in the categories that matter the most. They should outshoot and protect the ball better than Vanderbilt, and the game should also provide a nice opportunity to work on the things that need improving, such as rebounding and free throw rate. Rebounding will be easier to improve tonight than free throw rate, as on paper, Tennessee has a rebounding advantage but a free throw rate disadvantage. But we should get a glimpse tonight of how much the Vols can improve their weaknesses when they have their collective heads screwed on right.

KenPom has Tennessee winning this one 85-65. Vegas mostly agrees, as the line is Vols -19.

Go Vols.

Here’s our list of games worth watching this week, specifically curated for fans of the Tennessee Volunteers.

Monday

Tonight, you’ll want to root for Virginia Tech against Virginia at 7:00 on ESPN.

Tuesday

Tomorrow night, in addition to rooting for the Vols to get their groove back against Vanderbilt, Kentucky is in action against Missouri. Different strokes for different folks here, but I’m rooting for Cuonzo against the ‘Cats to give the Vols some cushion in the race for the SEC and for the 1-seeds. We’re going to want to beat them in Thompson-Boling on March 2 regardless, and I don’t think them losing another game or two before then would take much of the shine off it.

Wednesday

Root for North Carolina against Duke here, and, if you really want to indulge your fantasies, San Diego State against Nevada. The Florida-LSU game is interesting. Root for cushion or setting the stage for a statement Saturday? I’m pulling for the Gators and some breathing room.

Thursday

Go Gophers.

Full college basketball TV schedule

And here is the full searchable college basketball TV schedule for this week:

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the No. 1-ranked Tennessee Volunteers (23-1, 11-0) traveling to Lexington to take on the No. 5-ranked Kentucky Wildcats (20-4, 9-2).

Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

• Tipoff: 8:00
• TV: ESPN
• Official video streaming: Watch ESPN
• Official audio streaming: Vol Network
• Live stats (presumably updated at gametime)

The best other games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today and tomorrow, curated just for Vols fans:

GRT game-week audio

Here’s Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Will West on WNML’s Sports 180:

Pre-game prep

And in case you missed any of it, here’s some additional reading material to get you game-ready:

• Tennessee-Kentucky: the four factors
• Tennessee at Kentucky Preview
• Tennessee 85 South Carolina 73: Eliminating the Puncher’s Chance
• Worth reading 2.14.19: Fixing to find out if these problems are actually problems
• Worth watching 2.14.19: Vols-Gamecocks highlights and post-game

Go Vols!

Here’s our list of games worth watching this weekend, specifically curated for fans of the Tennessee Volunteers.

No. 1 Tennessee actually has the national game of the weekend tonight against the No. 5 (for now) Kentucky Wildcats at 8:00 on ESPN. Pace yourselves, y’all.

But the appetizers tip at noon, and the day features a couple of other Top 25 matchups, several teams with which Tennessee is competing for top seeding, and several games among important SEC brethren.

In general, root for Tennessee first and foremost, and then for other top seeds to lose, former opponents that are seeded but not a threat to displace the Vols (like Kansas) to win, and SEC teams to win.

Yeah, I know that that last part ruffles feathers and also has exceptions, but that’s why it’s a general rule. If you’d rather root for a rival to lose than win even though it might be good for the Vols, you’ll be wrong but we can still be friends. And games between SEC teams? You’re on your own there, although we want as many “good” wins as we can get for seeding purposes, so at this point, you might want to root for good teams to win and bad teams to keep losing.

By the way, who you root for actually has no bearing on the game anyway. Just thought I’d mention that. 🙂

So, who are you rooting for in these non-Vols games?

Hey, have you heard that there’s a huge game between No. 1 Tennessee and No. 5 Kentucky in Rupp Arena Saturday night at 8:00? You have? Well, okay then.

Will’s already posted his regular preview of the Tennessee-Kentucky game, which you should go read right now. But I wanted to also take another look at the game from a four factors perspective.

If you’re not familiar with the four factors, it’s essentially an analytical framework that boils the game of basketball down to four key categories:

1. Shooting
2. Turnovers
3. Offensive Rebounding
4. Getting to the foul line

Of these, shooting matters the most by far and is defined as a formula that results in a number known as effective field goal percentage. The remaining categories are in order of importance, but are only marginally more important than the one below them and are all much less important than shooting. That’s quite a dramatic oversimplification, so if you want the full explanation, check out the Dean Oliver four factors page. Even KenPom uses these four factors.

So, let’s take a look at Tennessee’s and Kentucky’s numbers in these all-important categories, first as a straight-up comparison and then in the context of offense vs. defense.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

• Tennessee 56.9 (No. 7)
• Kentucky 52.8 (No. 93)

Turnover %

• Tennessee 15.9 (No. 25)
• Kentucky 18.5 (No. 158)

Offensive Rebound %

• Tennessee 32.3 (No. 58)
• Kentucky 38.3 (No. 3)

Free Throw Rate

• Tennessee 36.3 (No. 102)
• Kentucky 41 (No. 22)

Straight-up conclusions

So, the Vols are much better at shooting and protecting the ball than are the Wildcats, but the Big Blue are much better at getting offensive rebounds and getting to the foul line than are the Big Orange. Fortunately for the Vols, their advantages are in the two most-important categories.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s EFG% is 56.9 (No. 7), while Kentucky’s defense against that is 47.5 (No. 45).

Head-to-head, Tennessee’s shooting offense still ranks higher than Kentucky’s shooting defense, but it’s probably safe to say that the Wildcats are going to be one of the toughest outs of the season for the Vols in this category. Kentucky’s number here (No. 45) is most similar to those of Kansas (No. 40), Louisville (No. 32), and Florida (No. 57). Tennessee rarely struggles shooting the ball, but it will be more difficult than usual Saturday night.

When Kentucky has the ball

Kentucky’s shooting offense is 52.8 (No. 93), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 46.7 (No. 27). They’re not terrible, but they’re not great, either, and they’ll be going against a very good defense.

Conclusions

Tennessee will likely struggle more than usual shooting the ball, but Kentucky should have even more trouble than Tennessee in this area.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s turnover % is 15.9 (No. 25), while Kentucky’s ability to generate turnovers (I’m going to call this “turnover defense” even though that sounds weird) is 20.4 (No. 86). That’s most similar to South Carolina.

When Kentucky has the ball

Kentucky’s turnover % is 18.5 (No. 158), while Tennessee’s turnover defense is 19.1 (No. 151).

Conclusions

Tennessee protects the ball pretty well, and Kentucky doesn’t present a particular threat on this front. On the other side of the ball, the Vols don’t do a great job of creating turnovers, but the Wildcats are fairly generous on their own. My guess is that turnovers won’t really be much of a factor Saturday.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 32.3 (No. 58), while Kentucky’s defense in that category is 25.8 (No. 61), which is most similar to Louisville.

When Kentucky has the ball

Here’s where is gets scary for Vols fans. Kentucky’s OR% is 38.3 (No. 3), while Tennessee’s defense in that category is 30.4 (No. 259). The Wildcats are great at getting their own misses, and — being generous here — the Vols aren’t especially well-equipped to prevent them from doing so.

Conclusions

The biggest advantage in this game appears to be on the offensive glass for the Wildcats. Get ready to go nuts every time we play good defense only to see them get an easy rebound and putback.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 36.3 (No. 102), while Kentucky’s defense against that is 27.1 (No. 34). What that means is that the Vols aren’t especially good at drawing fouls as a team, and the Wildcats are quite good at playing defense without fouling.

When Kentucky has the ball

Kentucky’s FT Rate is 41 (No. 22), while Tennessee’s defense is 32.8 (No. 164). So, the mirror image of the foregoing is also true: The Wildcats are good at drawing fouls, and the Vols aren’t especially good at avoiding them.

Conclusions

We’re going to want to blame this on CoRuppt Arena and the Rupparees, but it would be in keeping with both teams’ respective resumes if Kentucky ends up with a huge advantage in getting to the foul line Saturday night.

Score Prediction

KenPom has Kentucky winning this one 74-72. I suspect that this is just about right.