Author Archives: Joel Hollingsworth

As Will said earlier, no game matters more to the Vols’ hopes for a 1-seed than tomorrow’s rematch with Kentucky.

But if the Vols are going to make this a game, they’re going to have to do a lot better in Thompson-Boling than they did at Rupp. Two weeks ago, Tennessee allowed Kentucky to squeeze the last little bit of juice out of its advantage getting to the free throw line, and at the same time, failed miserably at getting anything out of its own advantage in shooting percentage. If they’re going to do better tomorrow, they’ll have to do better at those two things.

We’ve updated the teams’ respective four factors numbers below to remind ourselves what’s most important tomorrow and why.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

• Tennessee 55.9 (No. 16) (holding steady at 55.9 (No. 15))
• Kentucky 53.6 (No. 59)

Prior opponents:

• Ole Miss 53.5 (No. 64)
• LSU: 52.7 (No. 93)
• Vanderbilt: 50.3 (No. 198)
• Kentucky: 52.8 (No. 93)

Conclusions: Kentucky has been shooting the ball better lately, while Tennessee has been on a bit of a slide. But the Vols are still more efficient than the Wildcats. The advantage for the Vols was even more pronounced heading into the game two weeks ago, but they completely and totally squandered it. Tennessee shot only 40.7% from the field to Kentucky’s 54.7%, and they shot only 28% from the arc to Kentucky’s 38.5%.

The Vols have to do much better than that. The good news is that they can and usually do.

Turnover %

• Tennessee 15.9 (No. 24) (holding steady at 15.9 (No. 23))
• Kentucky 18.7 (No. 185)

Prior opponents:

• Ole Miss 18.7 (No. 172)
• LSU 19.0 (No. 196)
• Vanderbilt: 19.9 (No. 255)
• Kentucky: 18.5 (No. 158)

Conclusions: The Vols still have the advantage here despite a tendency to be a bit more generous lately than they were early in the season.

Offensive Rebound %

• Tennessee 31.3 (No. 86) (down from 31.8 (No. 74))
• Kentucky 37.9 (No. 4)

Prior opponents:

• Ole Miss 31.9 (No. 64)
• LSU 37.4 (No. 6)
• Vanderbilt: 28.6 (No. 178)
• Kentucky: 38.3 (No. 3)

Conclusions: This is what Kentucky does best.

Free Throw Rate

• Tennessee 34.6 (No. 141) (down from 34.8 (No. 136))
• Kentucky 42.2 (No. 14)

Prior opponents:

• Ole Miss 32.8 (No. 200)
• LSU 39.8 (No. 29)
• Vanderbilt: 44.8 (No. 7)
• Kentucky: 41 (No. 22)

Conclusions: The Wildcats are extremely good at getting to the free throw line as well.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s EFG% is 55.9 (No. 16), while Kentucky’s defense against that is 47.0 (No. 31).

When Kentucky has the ball

The Wildcats’ shooting offense is 53.6 (No. 59), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 46.9 (No. 27).

Conclusions

Even when you account for the defenses, this is a paper advantage for the Vols. They cannot squander it like they did in their first meeting with Kentucky.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s turnover % is 15.9 (No. 24), while the Wildcats’ turnover defense is 19.6 (No. 115).

When Kentucky has the ball

Kentucky’s turnover % is 18.7 (No. 185), but Tennessee’s turnover defense isn’t any better, at 18.5 (No. 187).

Conclusions

Tennessee appears to have a slight advantage in the turnover category tomorrow. In the first meeting, the Vols had 9 to the Wildcats’ 11. It really wasn’t a factor, and it doesn’t look like it will be much of one tomorrow, either.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 31.3 (No. 86), while Kentucky’s defense in that category is 26.0 (No. 69).

When Kentucky has the ball

The Wildcats’ OR% is 37.9 (No. 4), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 30.0 (No. 252), which makes this the biggest advantage of the game for the Kentucky offense.

Conclusions

Kentucky has a distinct advantage over Tennessee on the boards. This was a problem in the prior game, as Kentucky had 39 rebounds to Tennessee’s 26. They had 12 offensive boards to the Vols’ 9. They’ll likely outrebound Tennessee again tomorrow, but the Vols need to make sure it’s not a runaway train.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34.6 (No. 141), while Kentucky’s defense against that is 26.3 (No. 24).

When Kentucky has the ball

The Wildcats’ FT Rate is 42.2 (No. 14), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 33.3 (No. 190).

Conclusions

This, too, is a huge advantage on paper for Kentucky. It, along with Tennessee’s uncharacteristic poor shooting, was one of the primary reasons the game at Rupp went south. The Wildcats shot 33 free throws to Tennessee’s 18. They’ll probably have the advantage again tomorrow because it’s what they do. But the Vols have to do much better than that.

Summary and Score Prediction

Tennessee absolutely must do a better job of making the most of its apparent advantage in shooting efficiency this time around. If they can do that, and if they can minimize the Wildcats’ advantages in getting rebounds and free throw attempts, this game will likely come down to the wire.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Run the offense through the elbow and/or the post. Take good shots. Shoot jumpers only if they’re wide open off a good assist. Otherwise, drive to the bucket to hopefully draw some fouls.
2. Box out. Get the rebound.
3. Limit the Wildcats’ penetration. Stay between the ball and the basket. Defend without fouling. Don’t foul jump shooters.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 59% chance of winning this one and puts the score at Tennessee 73, Kentucky 71.

Go Vols.

The Tennessee Vols added another Quadrant 1 win to their resume last night with a 73-71 win over the Ole Miss Rebels in a hotly-contested game. Neither team really made the most of their opportunities, and the game came down to the wire. In the end, a Grant Williams power-drive to the rim from the free throw line sealed the deal for the Vols.

Effective Field Goal Percentage

We noted in our four-factors preview of this game that the Vols had an advantage on both sides of the ball in effective field goal percentage and said that they needed to make the most of it.

They did that, but only sort of. The overall percentages for both teams were 46.3% for the Vols and 40.7% for Ole Miss, and Tennessee shot 51.8% from the field. But they were also a miserable 3-13 (23.1%) from the arc. Admiral Schofield did his part from three, but the guards were cold. Lamonte Turner (who otherwise had a good night) was 1-4 from three, and the Jordans were a combined 0-6.

The Vols did outshoot Ole Miss, and they remain at No. 15 in EFG% per KenPom, but it’s hard to say they made the most of their advantage in this area. The guards, especially Jordan Bowden and Lamonte Turner, need to regain their form from three.

Turnover Percentage

Here’s what we said about turnovers in our game preview:

On paper in the offensive and defensive turnover categories, Ole Miss looks essentially the same as LSU. The turnover box score in the Vols game against the Tigers was 14 turnovers for Tennessee to 7 for LSU. If form holds, we should expect the Vols to once again have trouble protecting the ball, but they need to do better than that.

If the standard is “better than that,” then mission accomplished. Tennessee turned the ball over 9 times, but forced Ole Miss into 10 turnovers. It’s basically nothing more than what you’d want to see, but it’s a very good thing that they did not repeat one of the things that went wrong at LSU.

Offensive Rebounding Percentage

We noted in the preview that both teams had distinct advantages on the offensive glass and that being able to make the most of this while mitigating the other’s advantage on the other side of the ball would be key.

Well, it turns out that neither team was really able to do that, although Ole Miss did a marginally better job. Both teams are averaging just a shade over 10 offensive rebounds per game, and last night, the Vols limited Ole Miss to 7 but grabbed only 4 of their own.

Tennessee ORB% took a major hit last night, falling from No. 65 to No. 87. The defensive numbers improved from No. 261 to No. 251, but that’s not much comfort.

Free Throw Rate

Here’s what we said in our preview about Free Throw Rate:

Shrug. Neither team is especially good at getting to the line, but both defenses are pretty good at sending their opponents there anyway. Like the OR%, this is another even matchup where a team doing better than it normally does can secure for itself an important surprise advantage. The good news for Tennessee is that, although they were done in by both Kentucky and LSU in this category, they were able to keep it from happening against Vanderbilt despite the fact that Vandy usually does this well.

Shrug indeed, as this was another stalemate. The Vols went to the line 16 times while putting Ole Miss on the line 15 times. Neither team hit their average trips in this game. It should be said that Ole Miss did hit a really impressive 93.3% of its free throw attempts.

The Vols squandered some opportunities to make this game more comfortable, but they mostly shot and protected the ball well enough and made sure that Ole Miss didn’t take advantage of opportunities, either. And most importantly, the Vols added an extremely important Quadrant 1 win to their resume.

The No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers — in search of another all-important Quadrant 1 win — take on the Ole Miss Rebels tonight at 7:00 p.m. on the SEC Network.

That means it’s time to take a look at the teams’ respective four factors numbers, first as a straight-up comparison and then in the context of their opponent.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

• Tennessee 55.9 (No. 15) (down from 56.1 (No. 12))
• Ole Miss 53.5 (No. 64)

Prior opponents:

• LSU: 52.7 (No. 93)
• Vanderbilt: 50.3 (No. 198)
• Kentucky: 52.8 (No. 93)

Conclusions: Tennessee’s shooting percentage has been trending downward lately, presumably due to the increased competition, but they are still quite good and are still a better-shooting team than Ole Miss. But the Rebels rank better in this category than any of the Vols’ last three opponents, including the two that beat them. Basically, expect both teams to shoot well.

Turnover %

• Tennessee 16.0 (No. 25) (down from 15.9 (No. 23))
• Ole Miss 18.7 (No. 172)

Prior opponents:

• LSU 19.0 (No. 196)
• Vanderbilt: 19.9 (No. 255)
• Kentucky: 18.5 (No. 158)

Conclusions: The Vols have also been uncharacteristically generous in turning the ball over lately, but their numbers are still good despite the recent slide. Ole Miss appears to be roughly the same as the prior three opponents in this category.

Offensive Rebound %

• Tennessee 31.9 (No. 65) (up from 31.8 (No. 74))
• Ole Miss 31.9 (No. 64)

Prior opponents:

• LSU 37.4 (No. 6)
• Vanderbilt: 28.6 (No. 178)
• Kentucky: 38.3 (No. 3)

Conclusions: These two teams are evenly matched in this category, at least on the offensive side. The Rebels are better than Vandy, but not as daunting a challenge as either LSU or Kentucky.

Free Throw Rate

• Tennessee 34.8 (No. 136) (down from 35.3 (No. 127))
• Ole Miss 32.8 (No. 200)

Prior opponents:

• LSU 39.8 (No. 29)
• Vanderbilt: 44.8 (No. 7)
• Kentucky: 41 (No. 22)

Conclusions: Well, this should be a welcome reprieve for the Vols tonight. All of the Vols’ last three opponents were Top 30 in getting to the free throw line, but the Rebels are ranked 200th.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s EFG% is 55.9 (No. 15), while Ole Miss’ defense against that is 49.7 (No. 130). The Vols need to make the most of this advantage on the offensive end.

When Ole Miss has the ball

The Rebels’ shooting offense is 53.5 (No. 64), which is quite good. But Tennessee’s shooting defense is 46.8 (No. 26). The Vols are improving in this area, but they’ll be challenged tonight.

Conclusions

The Vols should have the advantage on both sides of the ball in effective field goal percentage.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s turnover % is 16.0 (No. 25), while the Rebels’ turnover defense is 21.8 (No. 35). This is essentially the same ranking as LSU, which caused the Vols to double them up on turnovers, 14-7. The good guys need to do better than that this evening, but Ole Miss may cause them problems.

When Ole Miss has the ball

Ole Miss’ turnover % is 18.7 (No. 172), but Tennessee’s turnover defense isn’t any better, at 18.6 (No. 176). Yes, we said the same thing about LSU last week.

Conclusions

On paper in the offensive and defensive turnover categories, Ole Miss looks essentially the same as LSU. The turnover box score in the Vols game against the Tigers was 14 turnovers for Tennessee to 7 for LSU. If form holds, we should expect the Vols to once again have trouble protecting the ball, but they need to do better than that.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 31.9 (No. 65), a ranking that has been improving despite the increased competition as of late. In addition, Ole Miss’ defense in that category is 30.4 (No. 267), making this the biggest advantage of the night for the Tennessee offense.

When Ole Miss has the ball

On the other hand, the Rebels’ OR% is 31.9 (No. 64), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 30.3 (No. 261), which makes this the biggest advantage of the night for the Ole Miss offense.

Conclusions

Both teams have distinct advantages over the other on the offensive glass. Making the most of this while mitigating the other’s advantage will be extremely important.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34.8 (No. 136), while Ole Miss’ defense against that is 33.5 (No. 192).

When Ole Miss has the ball

The Rebels’ FT Rate is 32.8 (No. 200), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 33.6 (No. 196).

Conclusions

Shrug. Neither team is especially good at getting to the line, but both defenses are pretty good at sending their opponents there anyway. Like the OR%, this is another even matchup where a team doing better than it normally does can secure for itself an important surprise advantage. The good news for Tennessee is that, although they were done in by both Kentucky and LSU in this category, they were able to keep it from happening against Vanderbilt despite the fact that Vandy usually does this well.

Summary and Score Prediction

Tennessee should shoot the ball better than Ole Miss this evening, but securing the ball is going to be both incredibly important and especially challenging. Both teams appear to be equally as good at getting offensive rebounds and equally as bad at getting to the line. With the matchups so even in these last two categories, I’m expecting the main battle to be there and the game to be decided by whichever team wins those two areas.

The goals for the Vols, then, should be (1) to minimize turnovers but don’t let them happen in bunches due to being frazzled, (2) to win the rebounding battle, and (3) to focus on getting to the free throw line more often than the Rebels.

KenPom has Tennessee winning this one 78-73.

Go Vols.

We last looked at the NCAA men’s basketball team sheets on February 5. At the time, the Vols were 19-1 overall and No. 4 in the NET Rankings, and we concluded that the machines were becoming a problem for the Vols’ NCAA resume because they didn’t like Tennessee’s defensive numbers.

Here’s how that same table looks now:

The KPI hates Tennessee as much as Dan Wolken, and the other computers aren’t especially fond of the Vols, either. And yet, the NET Rankings don’t seem bothered at all that the machines are even less impressed with Houston.

That’s probably a pretty good (and reasonably comforting) indication that even though the NCAA Selection Committee members may lean to some degree on the ancillary information included on the team sheets, the NET Rankings themselves are using their own formulations to rank the teams. Even more importantly, it’s beginning to appear that actual game results are being valued more by the NET Rankings than efficiency numbers, which is also comforting.

If you look at the Records section of the above table, the only reasonable explanation for Houston being at No. 4 is that it’s the only team in the Top 8 to have only one loss. The three teams ahead of Houston all have two Quadrant 1 losses, but two of those three also have at least double Houston’s Quadrant 1 wins. I’ll talk about Gonzaga a bit more below.

None of the teams in the Top 8 have any Quadrant 3 or 4 losses. Only Duke, Kentucky, and Michigan State have Quadrant 2 losses. Michigan State is the only team with two Quadrant 2 losses (plus they’re are one of four teams in the Top 8 with three or more Quadrant 1 losses), but they also have at least two more Quadrant 1 wins than any other team.

What’s this mean for Tennessee?

Relative to most of the other teams in the Top 8, the primary weakness of Tennessee’s win/loss resume is the number of Quadrant 1 wins. Like the Vols, both Kentucky and Michigan State have 3 Q1 losses, and those two teams also have 1 and 2 Q2 losses, yet are ahead of Tennessee in the rankings. Why? It could be the non-Team Index numbers, sure, but it probably has more to do with the fact that the Vols have only 5 Q1 wins to Kentucky’s 9 and Michigan State’s 11.

Bottom line: The Vols need several more Q1 wins in a hurry.

The good news is that Tennessee is going to have the opportunity to do exactly that. Of their final four opponents of the regular season, all four are Q1 opponents. According to KenPom, the Vols are favored in three of those games, and the final one at Auburn is essentially a toss-up. Win out, and Tennessee’s Q1 resume goes from 5-3 to 9-3 with zero Q2, Q3, or Q4 losses.

While Tennessee has four Q1 opportunities still ahead, the others have only limited opportunities. Gonzaga and Houston each have only one Q1 opponent left, and Virginia, Duke, Kentucky, Michigan State, and North Carolina each have two. The game between Tennessee and Kentucky at Thompson-Boling this Saturday is huge.

What about Gonzaga?

The fact that Gonzaga is No. 1 with an extremely similar record to No. 4 Houston should tip us off that the computers do still matter when trying to distinguish between similar teams.

The takeaway from that is that it’s still important for the Vols to improve their defensive efficiency, not only because doing so will increase the odds of them posting those all-important Q1 wins, but because doing so would make them more attractive to the computers and the efficiency calculation used by the NET Rankings.

Here’s our list of games worth watching this week, specifically curated for fans of the Tennessee Volunteers.

Monday

The week’s action tips off tonight with No. 15 Kansas at No. 16 Kansas State. We’re rooting for the Jayhawks there.

Tuesday

Tuesday features four games that matter to Vols fans. No. 3 Duke takes on No. 20 Virginia Tech, and No. 5 North Carolina takes on Syracuse, who’s one of Duke’s Quadrant 2 losses.

More importantly, the two teams currently tied with Tennessee for first place in the SEC are on the road against conference foes. No. 4 Kentucky travels to Arkansas (SECN at 9:00) and No. 13 LSU travels to Texas A&M (ESPN2 at 9:00). At this point, we want both of those teams to lose to give the Vols the edge in conference standings. Neither of them will fall out of Quadrant 1, so losing won’t Tennessee’s resume or opportunity going forward.

Wednesday

Tennessee travels to Ole Miss at 7:00 on the SEC Network Wednesday night. The game provides the Vols with an opportunity for a valuable and much-needed Quadrant 1 win.

No. 2 Virginia and No. 8 Houston are both also in action, although neither will likely lose. Future Vols opponent Auburn also travels to Georgia, and we’re rooting for Auburn there, as they’re no real threat to the SEC race or to Tennessee’s seeding.

Thursday

On Thursday, No. 9 Michigan and No. 1 Gonzaga both play teams they should beat, but at this point in the season, you never know.

Full college basketball TV schedule

And here is the full searchable college basketball TV schedule for this week:

In our four-factor preview of the Tennessee-LSU game, the numbers suggested that there were two primary keys to the game: defend without fouling, and rebound on both sides of the floor.

In one sense, the Vols lost the game 82-80 at the moment normally-reliable Lamonte Turner launched a three-point attempt too early with the score tied and the clock winding down, setting the stage for a possible LSU rebound and fast break and a Grant Williams foul to prevent it. English professors everywhere are tearing up at the previous sentence, but it all happened so incredibly fast that the situation calls for a run-on. Instead of Tennessee getting the last shot, LSU not only got the ball last, they got it at the free throw line.

But the game came down to that last play because Tennessee failed at one of the primary keys of the game, despite doing a good job at the other. Plus, they were once again uncharacteristically sloppy in the turnover department.

Effective Field Goal Percentage

Heading into the game, we said that the numbers showed a distinct advantage for Tennessee on both sides of the ball when it came to shooting percentage. That was indeed the case, as the Vols shot 44.8% from the field and 36.4% from the arc while holding LSU to 38.5% and 32%.

This was Tennessee’s primary advantage, and they made sure it mattered during the game.

Turnover Percentage

Here’s what we said about turnovers in our game preview:

This game appears to feature a team in Tennessee that is good at protecting the ball going up against a team in LSU that is good at forcing turnovers, while on the other side of the ball, LSU likes to give it away but Tennessee doesn’t do much to force the issue. Hopefully, the Vols’ offense will be more in synch and will not give the game away by giving up too many turnovers on offense.

Well, pfffft. We’ve been saying for a few games now that “Tennessee has been uncharacteristically sloppy in recent games,” and unfortunately, despite the season-long numbers, we might have to stop qualifying this as uncharacteristic. The Vols were again sloppy with the ball, doubling up the Tigers on turnovers 14-7. Give some of that credit to LSU, but this is becoming a disturbing trend.

Offensive Rebounding Percentage

After looking at all of the numbers, we concluded that one of the keys to the game was keeping LSU off the offensive glass, and the team actually did a decent job of that.

Tennessee held LSU to its average of 13 offensive boards, an accomplishment for a team that isn’t very good at keeping opponents from getting their own misses. Meanwhile, the Vols had 13 o-rebounds of their own. This was one of the keys to the game, and Tennessee did a good job executing.

Free Throw Rate

Unfortunately, an even bigger key to the game was keeping LSU off of the foul line, and the Vols failed in that department. The Tigers are averaging 24.2 trips to the foul line per game, and they got there 31 times against the Vols. Tennessee only got to the line 16 times.

Prior to the game, Tennessee’s defensive free throw rate was No. 182; it’s now No. 195.

In a two-point game, getting to the line 15 more times than your opponent makes all the difference.

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with No. 5 Tennessee (24-2, 12-1) traveling to Baton Rouge to take on No. 13 LSU (21-5, 11-2).

Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

• Tipoff: 12:00
• TV: ESPN
• Official video streaming: Watch ESPN
• Official audio streaming: Vol Network
• Live stats

The best other games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today and tomorrow, curated just for Vols fans:

And here’s the complete list of today’s games in case you’re looking for something else:

GRT game-week audio

Here’s Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Will West on WNML’s Sports 180:

Pre-game prep

And in case you missed any of it, here’s some additional reading material to get you game-ready:

• Tennessee-LSU four-factors preview: defend without fouling, get the board
• Here Comes The Money
• Tennessee-Vanderbilt four-factor review
• The Vols Still Make Their Own Fate

Here’s our list of games worth watching this week, specifically curated for fans of the Tennessee Volunteers.

Saturday

The big event for the day for Vols fans, of course, is Tennessee traveling to Baton Rouge to take on LSU at noon on ESPN.

How much attention you put on other games during the Vols game is up to you, but while the Vols are playing, we’re also wanting Louisville to upset Virginia. I’m also rooting for Auburn to upset Kentucky because the Wildcats are currently a threat to our 1-seed.

Duke, Gonzaga, and Houston are all in action this afternoon as well, so we’re wanting them to take a loss. Why do we care about Houston, which is only ranked No. 9 in the polls? Because they are No. 4 in the more-important NET Rankings.

We also want Florida to beat Missouri to remain a Quadrant 1 opponent for the Vols, and we’re rooting for prior opponent Kansas (one of the Vols’ only two losses) over Texas Tech.

Florida State and North Carolina could be fun as well, although it likely won’t impact the Vols very much.

Sunday

Sunday, we want Michigan State over Michigan, beause the Wolverines are more of a threat to displace the Vols on one of the top seed lines.

Full college basketball TV schedule

And here is the full searchable college basketball TV schedule for this weekend:

The No. 5 Tennessee Volunteers travel to Baton Rouge to take on the No. 13 LSU Tigers on Saturday at noon on ESPN.

As we did with the last two games, let’s take a look at the teams’ respective four factors numbers, first as a straight-up comparison and then in the context of their opponent.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

• Tennessee 56.1 (No. 12) (down from 56.5 (No. 8))
• LSU 52.7 (No. 93)

Prior opponents:

• Vanderbilt: 50.3 (No. 198)
• Kentucky: 52.8 (No. 93)

Conclusions: Its recent shooting woes notwithstanding, Tennessee is generally a much better shooting team than LSU, and the Tigers are about as good shooting the ball as is Kentucky.

Turnover %

• Tennessee 15.9 (No. 23) (down from 15.8 (No. 21))
• LSU 19.0 (No. 196)

Prior opponents:

• Vanderbilt: 19.9 (No. 255)
• Kentucky: 18.5 (No. 158)

Conclusions: The Vols protect the ball better than the Tigers, which are somewhere in between Tennessee’s last two opponents in that category.

Offensive Rebound %

• Tennessee 31.8 (No. 74) (down from 32.0 (No. 66))
• LSU 37.4 (No. 6)

Prior opponents:

• Vanderbilt: 28.6 (No. 178)
• Kentucky: 38.3 (No. 3)

Conclusions: LSU, which is essentially as good as Kentucky at getting offensive rebounds, has a distinct advantage over the Vols in this category.

Free Throw Rate

• Tennessee 35.3 (No. 127) (down from 36.0 (No. 107))
• LSU 39.8 (No. 29)

Prior opponents:

• Vanderbilt: 44.8 (No. 7)
• Kentucky: 41 (No. 22)

Conclusions: The same can be said for free throw rate, that LSU is essentially the same team as Kentucky. Fortunately for the Vols, Vanderbilt is even better at getting to the line than either team, and they struggled against the Vols this week.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s EFG% is 56.1 (No. 12), while LSU’s defense against that is 50.9 (No. 183). Both Vanderbilt and Kentucky were better equipped to negatively impact Tennessee’s efficient shooting, so with that, the extra focus, and the extra rest this week, I’m expecting the Vols to shoot much better this weekend than they have the last couple of games.

When LSU has the ball

LSU’s shooting offense is 52.7 (No. 93), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 46.9 (No. 31). The Tigers shoot better than Vandy, but with the Vols’ shooting defense improving this week, LSU could struggle a little more than usual.

Conclusions

Tennessee’s usually potent offense shouldn’t be troubled too much by LSU’s defense. On the other side of the ball, LSU’s offense — which is fine but not elite — will find more resistance than usual from a Tennessee defense sporting a renewed focus.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s turnover % is 15.9 (No. 23), while LSU’s turnover defense is 21.6 (No. 37). The Vols have been uncharacteristically sloppy the past couple of games, and LSU could have some say about the Vols continuing that trend tomorrow.

When LSU has the ball

LSU’s turnover % isn’t great at 19.0 (No. 196), but Tennessee’s turnover defense isn’t much better, also at 19.0 (No. 158).

Conclusions

This game appears to feature a team in Tennessee that is good at protecting the ball going up against a team in LSU that is good at forcing turnovers, while on the other side of the ball, LSU likes to give it away but Tennessee doesn’t do much to force the issue. Hopefully, the Vols’ offense will be more in synch and will not give the game away by giving up too many turnovers on offense.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 31.8 (No. 74), while LSU’s defense in that category is 31.0 (No. 286). So, the Vols aren’t especially good at this usually, but LSU may make it easier.

When LSU has the ball

LSU’s OR% is 37.4 (No. 6), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 30.3 (No. 260). This is the biggest statistical advantage in the game, and it belongs to LSU.

Conclusions

Tennessee will likely have more offensive rebounds than usual in this game, which is a good thing, but the numbers say the Vols are going to have real trouble keeping the Tigers from getting their own offensive rebounds. LSU’s shooting percentage isn’t scary enough to put all of the defensive energy into making them take tough shots. It might make more sense to devote marginally more energy to boxing out and preventing offensive rebounds.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 35.3 (No. 127), while LSU’s defense against that is 34.1 (No. 207). Good news, this is more like Vanderbilt than Kentucky. Of course, the Vols didn’t really get to the line very much at all against Vanderbilt. Perhaps that will change against LSU.

When LSU has the ball

LSU’s FT Rate is 39.8 (No. 29). Tennessee’s ability to keep opponents off the foul line is 33.0 (No. 182). That, of course, is not very good at all, but it improved this week with an emphasis on doing so.

The bad news is that Kentucky dominated Tennessee in this category. The good news is that the Vols nullified an even bigger advantage for Vandy in the last game.

Conclusions

Tennessee’s offense should be able to get to the line against LSU. The real question is the extent to which LSU will be able to do the same. We said prior to the Vanderbilt game that this area was going to be a real challenge for Tennessee but would also be a point of emphasis. That turned out to be the case, and the vulnerability was nullified. That should be the game plan again tomorrow. Defend without fouling, get the rebound.

Summary and Score Prediction

Tennessee’s biggest advantages in this game appear to be shooting offense and its own offensive rebounding. LSU’s biggest advantages appear to be its own offensive rebounding and getting to the line.

The goals for the Vols, then, should be to maximize their advantages in shooting and rebounding when they have the ball and to turn up the defense without fouling on the other end.

KenPom has Tennessee winning this one 81-79.

Go Vols.

After Tennessee’s 58-46 win over winless-in-the-SEC Vanderbilt last night, you could see what looked like disappointment on the faces of the players. Beat writers were bracing for head coach Rick Barnes to express his own frustration in his post-game press conference.

But Barnes actually seemed pleased and unperturbed, as if he was grading based solely on his own narrow criteria. Last night’s game was an opportunity for the Vols to get hyper focused on the things they needed to fix about themselves, and when you look at those things, then yes, last night was encouraging.

Effective Field Goal Percentage

Tennessee’s offense is one of the best in the country in EFG%, but the Kentucky loss Saturday shined a harsh light on a concern that had been overshadowed by the team’s historical win streak: The Vols’ defensive EFG% is not good enough to enable the team to reach its ultimate goal for this season.

Kentucky shot 54.7% from the field and 38.5% from the arc against the Vols last Saturday. Against Vanderbilt last night, the Vols’ defense held the Commodores to 32.1% from the field and 30.4% from the three-point line. That’s still too high from three, and the offense had another off-shooting night, but Rick Barnes wasn’t concerned about the offense as much as he was pleased at the defensive success. Vandy’s 46 points was the lowest total for a Tennessee opponent since the first game of the season against Lenior-Rhyne.

Turnover Percentage

Tennessee had a significant advantage in the turnovers category heading into the game last night, but they failed to make anything of it. Vandy had 12 turnovers, but the Vols were uncharacteristically careless with the ball and gave up 11 themselves. This, along with the shooting troubles, is probably a big reason why they couldn’t put the game away until late.

Offensive Rebounding Percentage

We expected the Vols to have a slight advantage in rebounding last night, and they did, but it was indeed only slight. Tennessee had 9 offensive rebounds but only held Vandy to 8. On the defensive side, the Vols had a 31-25 advantage.

Consider this a mild success, although I wonder if they weren’t hoping for better.

Free Throw Rate

Vanderbilt’s biggest advantage on paper heading into the game last night was in its ability to get to the free throw line. This had to have been a major area of emphasis for the Vols, as it was one of the many things that killed them against Kentucky last weekend. The Wildcats went to the line 33 times to Tennessee’s 18. Vanderbilt’s resume in this category is actually better than that of Kentucky.

But last night, the Commodores only got to the line six times. That’s a huge success for the good guys, especially when you combine it with the improved defense. If you can defend that well without fouling, you’re in good shape.