It’s almost August, the time of year when optimism not only blooms but grows into a monster with an unquenchable thirst for blood. Everybody’s 0-0 and dreaming of wins.

Most Tennessee fans, though, if they are dreaming at all, are dreaming modest dreams of six to eight wins. But things can always change in a hurry, and all it takes is just an innocent little taste of some good news. Feed me, Seymour!

Here’s what I’m hoping to hear over the next several weeks leading up to kickoff.

Trey Smith is cleared to play

If you’re a Vols fan, you know Smith’s story, but here’s the nutshell version: Incredibly highly-touted and recruited, Smith chose Tennessee, lived up to the hype as a true freshman, and then had his career derailed by a serious medical condition. He got back on the field early last year, but was sidelined by relapse. It had to be terrible news for him, and it wasn’t good for the team, either.

This offseason, so far, is playing out like the last in that Smith is working to get back on the field, but there’s been no official word heading into fall camp whether he’ll be able to play. At SEC Media Days a couple of weeks ago, Jeremy Pruitt said that the team and Smith’s doctors were “figuring out a plan” to have him play, which sounds encouraging. But until there’s an official announcement that Smith is going to suit up and start hitting people, we’ll just have to sit and wait and dream those modest dreams.

If Smith plays, his presence will immediately improve the outlook for an offensive line that was the chokepoint for the entire offense last season. This unit should improve even if Smith can’t play, but with him, the improvement could prove quite dramatic. And that, along with a capable defensive line, could make the most difference for the team this fall.

Aubrey Solomon is ruled eligible

Speaking of the defensive line . . . Aubrey Solomon is a 6’5″, 299-pound DL who transferred to Tennessee from Michigan this offseason. A 5-star recruit and an Army All-American out of high school, Solomon played in 13 games as a true freshman at Michigan and had 4 starts and 18 tackles. Last season, he suffered a knee injury early in the season and played in only five games.

Bottom line, this guy’s good (assuming he’s healthy), and Tennessee desperately needs him, as the majority of the productivity along last year’s defensive line has walked across the aisle, diploma in hand, never to return again.

Unfortunately, Solomon’s fate is in the hands of a schizophrenic mad man. For him to play as a Volunteer this fall, the NCAA will have to rule him immediately eligible, and the body of law that constitutes the NCAA’s eligibility decisions can best be summed up as “Huh?” Maybe if he petitions for wisdom, he’ll get both wisdom and immediate eligibility. Hey, it could work.

Pruitt, at SEC Media Days, said that they’d not yet received a ruling, and as you keep your eyes peeled for a headline that says Solomon has been cleared to play this fall, don’t trust Twitter.

No injuries, medical conditions, or early retirements

Just two short years ago, Tennessee was on the cusp of becoming Injury-U. Just prior to the 2017 season, we discussed Phil Steele’s bounce-back data, which is a measure of how many starts a team loses to injury in a given year. At the time, the data showed that Tennessee had lost more starts to injury (52) than any other team in college football in 2016. Woo.

The kicker? Having a lot of injuries in a season generally means that the team does better the following year, but the Vols bucked the trend and instead put together a two-year injury dynasty, leading the nation in starts-lost-to-injury in 2017 as well. As far as I can tell, Steele isn’t compiling that data anymore, and I suspect Tennessee is the reason why.

The numbers for 2018 elude me, but just going from memory, I’d have to say that Tennessee wisely abdicated its injury throne last year. Yes, I know there’s been a plague of medical retirements and that the offensive line has been hit the hardest, but it did seem to be mostly better last year, didn’t it?

Regardless, some of the best news we could get this August will be in the form of no news: no news of injuries, no news of more medical conditions, no news of early retirements. This no news is good news.

Making time for Guarantano

One other important bit of news I’ll be actively looking for over the next month is word that quarterback Jarrett Guarantano will be spending more time on his feet and less time having grass stains power-washed off his vertebrae.

Guarantano was sacked on over 8% of his dropbacks last season, and 39% of his throws were made under pressure. Dude needs more time to do his job, is what I’m saying.

As David Hale says in that linked article, Guarantano was much better than most are willing to give him credit for despite suffering from acute temporal distress. Imagine what he could do with just a little more time.

The team can make time for Guarantano on two fronts. First, improvement along the offensive line would increase the actual amount of time he has to make decisions. Second, if Guarantano can improve the speed at which he makes throwing decisions, he’ll decrease the amount of time he needs to throw. I’m no math whizz, but I think that if you combine those two things, Guarantano will have more time to operate back there, and the passing game should improve. Plus, Jim Chaney is probably worth a few ticks himself.

An improved passing attack should help the run game as well by preventing defenses from reducing Tennessee’s offense to a one-dimensional, can’t-do-anything mound of unproductive activity. Balance, it’s all the rage.

So there you have it, the tasty bits of news I’m desperate to hear during fall camp.

What is it you want from Seymour?

It’s not quite August yet, but the heat has broken (for now) and the birds are singing outside my window, so it’s feeling like a good time to throw open the garage door and take the GRT Expected Win Total Machine for a spin.

For those who might be new to this, this is an alternative method of gauging your expectations for the upcoming season. Rather than just assigning Ws and Ls to games, you assign each game a confidence level as a percentage. If you’re positive the Vols will win, you give it 100%. If you’re positive they’ll lose, you give it 0%. Toss-ups hover somewhere around 50%.

We take those numbers, crunch ’em up good, and spit something back at you that we believe better approximates what you really expect the win-loss record to be this fall.

We’ll likely do this again as we get more information from fall practice, but this will give us all a pretty good benchmark heading into the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

Use the form below to submit your data and get your answer.

My results and expectations

I’m at 6.55 wins. Here’s how I feel about each game, with space between the order of the games to help show relative confidence level of each game at this point:

My preliminary thoughts about each game are below. Leave yours in the comment section.

The non-con

The Vols have a relatively easy non-conference schedule this fall. Those of you who know me know that I never get to 100% certainty, but I do have both Chattanooga and Georgia State at 95%.

UAB and BYU are both a step above the others, but I still have them at 85% and 80%, respectively.

The Big 3

Alabama, Georgia, and Florida are all likely losses this season, but in different degrees. I have Alabama at 5%, Georgia at 15%, and Florida at 30%. Offensive lines matter, y’all.

Where the season will turn

The season will turn on the games against the rest of the SEC East and Mississippi State. I currently have all of these teams as toss-ups at 50%. I had to order them for the table, so I settled on Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Missouri, and Kentucky, in order of likelihood of winning. As I said last week, I think Missouri’s a better team than Kentucky this year, but that the Vols have a slightly better chance against Missouri than Kentucky due to quirks in the schedule.

What about you? What are your numbers, what’s your expected win total, and why?

With SEC Media Days taking place this week, it’s that time of year where everybody starts asking The Question again: How are the Vols going to do this season?

To me, it’s less about what the Vols accomplish in terms of an overall win-loss record and more about what they do against the second tier of the SEC East. Take care of that business (and run the table against the non-conference), and the overall record will take care of itself.

The second tier in the SEC East

Losing on a regular basis to Georgia and Florida (and Alabama) will get even the best coaches fired. But anyone who’s been paying attention knows that Tennessee has been wandering around in a damp, dark cellar for too many years now, and the way to the penthouse begins by climbing out of the basement. Put another way, we can’t deal with the first-world challenge of beating the Big 3 rivals on a regular basis until we solve the third-world problem of losing all too often to teams like South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky.

That stings just to type, but facts are facts. Granted, Kentucky hasn’t been too much trouble recently, as they’ve beaten the Vols only twice in the past ten years, but they have had more success lately than history suggests they should have.

The others, though, have been major thorns in the side of the program the past several years. Tennessee is 2-5 against Missouri since 2012 and has lost the last two. The Vols are 3-6 against South Carolina since 2010 and have lost the last three. And after 22 Ws in a row from 1983-2004, Tennessee is now 2-5 against the Commodores since 2012, losing the last three in a row. I don’t need to add all that up to know that it’s an unprecedented level of futility for a proud program.

The first order of business for the Vols is correcting that problem. What they do against the Tide, Bulldogs, and Gators this season won’t matter nearly as much as what they do against the SEC East’s second tier.

It won’t be easy, but finishing at or near the top of that group of teams is doable even this season. Tennessee should have the edge over a Vanderbilt team replacing quarterback Kyle Shurmur, and in any event the Commodores look like they’re going to have trouble compiling a decent SEC East record. In our Gameday on Rocky Top 2019 magazine, we predicted an 0-8 SEC record and last-place finish in the East for the ‘Dores.

As for the Wildcats, they probably peaked last year, as they have to replace running back Benny Snell and linebacker Josh Allen. The schedule could present a problem for the Vols in this game — it will be the sixth in a row for the Vols, while Kentucky will be coming off a bye. For that reason, I’m putting this down as a loss for Tennessee. Despite that, I believe the Vols will finish with a better SEC record than the Wildcats and therefore ahead of them in the SEC East standings.

The real competition among this group this fall should be South Carolina and Missouri, as they and Tennessee are all ranked in the 20s in our magazine’s Top 25. We have the Gamecocks tied with the Vols in the SEC at 3-5 despite having the most difficult schedule among SEC teams, but we also have Tennessee winning the head-to-head and thus finishing ahead of them in the SEC East standings.

Missouri is the only team that we’ve actually picked to finish ahead of the Vols this fall, and we’ve done it despite predicting that Tennessee will beat them. Missouri not only appears to be a better team at this point, its schedule is also ridiculously easy. I think the Vols will beat them thanks to a quirk in the schedule (Tennessee has a bye the week before, while Missouri will be coming off consecutive games against Georgia and Florida), but Missouri will still likely finish ahead of the Vols in the standings. One game either way, though, and Tennessee could edge them out to come out on top of the SEC East second tier.

Secondary goal: Be competitive in the rivalry games

As I said earlier, competing directly with Alabama, Georgia, and Florida for the SEC conference or divisional crown will always be the chief goal for the Vols program, but it’s a long way to the penthouse and it’s guarded by a well-armed security detail.

This season, a reasonable goal is to simply make these games more competitive. The good news is that the bar is low. Hide the children; I’m about to remind you of the recent results:

Alabama

• 2018: 21-58 (37-point loss)
• 2017: 7-45 (38-point loss)

Georgia

• 2018: 12-38 (26-point loss)
• 2017: 0-41 (41-point loss)

Florida

• 2018: 21-47 (26-point loss)
• 2017: 20-26 (6-point loss)

I’m not yet convinced that Florida has actually risen to the level of Georgia and Alabama at this point, but they do seem to be well ahead of the Vols in their rebuild. I have them beating Tennessee this season and also finishing second in the East to Georgia, but I’m also keeping my eye on the fact that they have lost four starters along the offensive line. Of the Big 3 games, Florida is the most winnable for the Vols. I wouldn’t expect a win, but I would expect it to be competitive.

Georgia and Alabama are currently juggernauts, and the goal against these guys this fall is to keep the game respectable. Avoid double-digit losses this season and then make a run at winning next year.

Converting this into wins and losses, that’s seven wins for Tennessee this season: four wins against non-conference opponents and three out of four against the second tier of the SEC East. Mississippi State is a tossup game that I’m guessing will go against the Vols, but it’s also a good opportunity for an additional win.

What about you? How do you expect things to play out this fall?

A couple of years ago, I made the argument that cross-divisional games should not be considered equal to divisional games when determining divisional standings, and I believe that as much today as I did then. It makes all the sense in the world that we don’t count out-of-conference games against Bethune-Cookman when determining SEC conference standings, but for some reason we lose our minds if someone suggests that ranking teams within a division should be determined primarily by reference to divisional results. Cross-divisional results should be relegated to tiebreaker considerations.

Part of the reason for this idea being so quickly dismissed is the color of the shirt I’m wearing and that the issue tends to come up when discussing Alabama’s current dominance over Tennessee in the Third Saturday in October rivalry.

But using divisional results first to determine divisional champions would have impacted the Tennessee Volunteers a grand total of zero times this decade. In fact, the only beneficiaries of this proposal in that time span would have been Ole Miss in 2015 and South Carolina in 2011.

Here’s the data:

The only seasons (since 2010) that would have had different SEC championship participants under this proposal are 2015 and 2011. In 2015, Alabama represented the SEC West with a 7-1 overall conference record. Ole Miss was second in the West with a 6-2 overall conference record. But both teams were 5-1 in the SEC West, and Ole Miss beat Alabama head-to-head. The Rebels merely had the misfortune of losing to SEC East champion Florida in the regular season, which gave them an additional regular-season conference loss and denied them an opportunity for a rematch with the Gators in the SEC Championship game.

In 2011, Georgia represented the SEC East with a 7-1 overall conference record, beating out a 6-2 South Carolina team for the division crown. But the Bulldogs were 4-1 in the SEC East while the Gamecocks were 5-0. South Carolina beat everybody in the East, including Georgia, but they lost to Arkansas and Auburn from the West. Georgia, meanwhile, skated by with a cross-divisional slate that featured the two worst teams from the West in Mississippi State and Ole Miss.

It may look and smell like sour grapes from a long-suffering Tennessee fan, but giving cross-divisional results the same weight as divisional results when ranking teams within a division makes no sense, no matter the messenger.

According to the official NCAA data, a total of 18 players who were brand new to the Tennessee program last fall played in at least one game. Four of those were junior college players, and 14 were true freshmen.

That’s a bunch, and I doubt that we’ll see that number again this fall, but we could still see a lot of new faces. Well, jersey numbers anyway.

Whether a guy makes it onto the field in his first season on campus depends on a variety of factors, but chief among them are (1) the opportunity at his position, (2) his own talent level, and (3) the talent level of the guys already there at the position.

Taking all of that into consideration, here’s a look at the new guys ranked by their likelihood of playing time this fall.

1. DL Aubrey Solomon

Assuming his request for immediate eligibility is approved, of course, the Michigan transfer is not only really talented, he’s walking into vacuum along the defensive line. Kyle Phillips, Alexis Johnson, and Shy Tuttle are all gone, so there are three starting spots up for grabs, and they’ll go to the three best bets. If Solomon is eligible, he’s almost certain to be one of those guys.

2. OL Darnell Wright

Wright is the highest-rated newcomer on Tennessee’s roster, ranking GDS4 (No. 4 in our magazine’s SEC rankings for the Class of 2019). Assuming he is indeed as talented as his ranking suggests, there are only two hurdles for him to overcome. First, the offensive line returns 80% of its starts from last season, and second, Wright did not participate in spring practice, so he only has a short time to win the spot.

No offense to the starters from last season, but they’ve been “recruited over,” meaning Wright is probably already more talented than they are, and he definitely has a higher ceiling. I’m expecting him to start, if not in the season-opener, then pretty soon thereafter.

3. DL Savion Williams

Williams is only GDS133, but he’s the 14th-best junior college prospect in this year’s class, according to 247Sports. You know what they say about JUCO guys — they’re not recruited to sit on the bench — and Williams is a particularly good one. Plus, the defensive line needs somebody, and Williams seems well-positioned to compete with the non-starters already on the roster for one of the three empty spots.

4. DB Deangelo Gibbs

This may come as a bit of a surprise to some, as Gibbs didn’t get as much press as you would have expected this spring for a former highly-touted transfer from Georgia. Plus, the 2017 season provided a lot of starting experience to a lot of young and talented DBs who are now presumably ahead of Gibbs in the rotation. But Gibbs is really talented and has experience with a winning program, and Pruitt seems to use a lot of bodies back there, so I expect to see Gibbs a fair amount at some point this season.

5. OL Wanya Morris

Many would put Morris higher on this list and probably even above Wright just because Morris has already been seen working with the ones at left tackle in spring practice. I do think that’s a good indication that he’ll be starting on the line early, but his ranking is not as high as Wright’s and if Morris can win a position in a short spring camp, Wright can win one in a short fall camp. Fussing about the pecking order of these two newcomers is a nice problem to have.

6. LB Quavaris Crouch

Crouch (GSD30) is yet another exceptionally talented young guy, and with the retirement of Darrin Kirkland Jr., Crouch will now have an even better opportunity to get into the mix early and often. He gets the nod over fellow incoming LB Henry To’oto’o because he was here for spring practice.

7. LB Henry To’oto’o

Vol Nation was excited to get To’oto’o (GDS49) as a late pickup over some elite recruiting competition. Like Crouch, he’s talented enough at a position with enough opportunity to earn a fair amount of playing time this fall. Unlike Crouch, though, he was not an early enrollee, so he has to navigate over the learning curve before he can get on the field.

The complete list

Here’s the entire list of guys, ranked by likelihood of playing time this fall:

Notes on positional need

As noted earlier, the team’s need is greatest along the defensive line, so the opportunity for playing time there is wide open.

The offensive line is wide open, but for another reason. Most of the starters are back, but the unit has underperformed for many years, and so there’s early opportunity for anyone to dislodge the starters, especially for elite-level prospects.

Opportunity in the defensive backfield is currently a mixture of experienced upperclassmen and guys who are still young but have already been through the fire for a season. That said, there were some key departures from last year’s team, so there is an opportunity there.

With the retirement of Kirkland, there is also a degree of opportunity in the linebacking corps, and that unit, like most others, could use some additional depth.

Barring injury, there is not much opportunity at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, or tight end, at least for starting gigs. The coaches do generally like to rotate a lot of bodies in at running back and wide receiver, though, so although the starting positions are locked up, there are opportunities to get on the field in a back-up role.

Tennessee’s non-conference schedule isn’t the monster it has recently been. In our 2019 Gameday on Rocky Top magazine, we have the Vols’ non-conference schedule ranked the 12th-most-difficult. Only Kentucky and Arkansas have it easier.

This is all relative, of course, as part of the reason Tennessee is so far down the list is that some of its SEC brethren have leveled up their non-con scheduling. South Carolina, for instance, not only has defending national champion Clemson, but also giant-killer Appalachian State and North Carolina.

Tennessee’s non-conference slate this year features the Georgia State Panthers, the BYU Cougars, the Chattanooga Mocs, and the UAB Blazers. That’s a much more manageable slate than it has been in the past as none of those teams rank above No. 63 in our power rankings.

So, which of these teams presents the biggest challenge for Tennessee this fall? No offense to Chattanooga or Georgia State, but we can quickly dispense with those teams, as the Mocs are literally in a separate category and the Panthers were a woeful 2-10 last season and finished last in the Sun Belt East with a 1-7 conference record.

Of the other two non-conference opponents, most will immediately default to BYU, a traditional brand name with a rich history of on-field success. There’s also good support for this instinctive conclusion, as the Cougars had consecutive 9-4 seasons as recently as 2015-16, and its defense last year ranked 18th in the nation. That defense could present a real challenge to a Vols’ offense still getting used to new offensive coordinator Jim Chaney in the second game of the season.

On the other hand, BYU has struggled the past couple of seasons, going only 4-9 in 2017 and 7-6 last year, and last season’s offense ranked only 100th in the nation. Unless they’ve improved dramatically on that side of the ball, the Vols should have a decided advantage even if they do struggle against the Cougars’ defense.

But do not overlook the UAB Blazers. It’s certainly tempting to dismiss a school that didn’t even have a football program two out of the last four years. If you over-focus on that, though, you’ll miss the fact that these guys are actually pretty good despite taking a two-year sabbatical in 2015 and 2016.

The Blazers didn’t miss a beat when they rebooted the football program in 2017, promptly going 8-5 (6-2) in Conference USA. Last year, they posted an impressive 11-3 (7-1) record and finished first in the C-USA West. Like BYU, UAB has a surprisingly stout defense, their strength of schedule notwithstanding. They were ninth in the nation in total defense last season, seventh in scoring defense, 14th in passing yards allowed, and 17th in rushing defense. And unlike BYU, UAB’s offense isn’t pulling the rest of the team under. This fall, the Blazers return both quarterback Tyler Johnston and running back Spencer Brown.

And just in case you’ve forgotten, the last time Tennessee and UAB met, the Vols needed double-overtime at home to put the Blazers away. UAB actually dominated the Vols statistically, but Tennessee finally won 32-29 when Matt Simms connected with Denarius Moore on a 25-yard touchdown on the first play of the second overtime. And we celebrated like we’d won a championship.

The timing of the games against these two non-conference opponents also comes into play. BYU will come to Neyland for the Vols’ second game of the season when both teams are fresh. In contrast, UAB comes to town after the Vols have played Georgia, Mississippi State, Alabama, and South Carolina in consecutive weeks. The Vols’ bodies are more likely to be strong and their minds more likely to be right against BYU than they are against UAB.

I’m not necessarily more concerned about UAB than I am about BYU, but I would say that I am equally concerned about both. Tennessee should be favored against both teams, but either or both of them could spell trouble if the Vols aren’t ready to play.

We rolled out several new features in the 2019 edition of our Gameday on Rocky Top preseason football magazine, one of which is an eight-page Unit Rankings spread in the SEC section.

The GRT 2019 Unit Rankings section analyzes all 14 SEC teams by position and then ranks them for the upcoming season. The analysis varies depending on the position, but generally speaking, it’s based on how productive the unit was the prior season, how much of that production is returning, and how well the team recruited that position this cycle.

Tennessee, unfortunately, did not fare very well in most of the rankings. If you’ve purchased the magazine, you’ll know that the Vols rank first in the league in returning production percentage. According to our formula, Tennessee returns 89.47% of its offensive production, 68.07% of its defensive production, and 76.63% of its overall production. LSU is right behind the Vols with 76.29% overall, but there is a fairly significant gap between those two teams and everyone else.

Of course, returning production percentage tells only part of the story. It speaks to a team’s continuity, but it says nothing about how productive the team actually was the prior season, and it’s that second part that doomed the Vols in this year’s rankings. They simply weren’t very productive on either offense or defense in 2018.

Based on our calculations, here are the top SEC teams at each position for this fall:

And here’s where Tennessee came in at each position:

As you can see from the table above, Tennessee’s offensive and defensive production in 2018 is an anchor weighing down expectations for this fall despite the fact that the Vols return a larger percentage of that production than any other team in the SEC.

Even the Vols’ highest ranking — No. 3 at linebacker — was recently rendered incorrect with the announcement that Darrin Kirkland Jr. is indeed retiring from football. Kirkland’s status was still up in the air at our early press time, so his contributions were included in the calculations. Removing Kirkland’s contributions (and adding those of Darrell Taylor, who the official source data incorrectly identified as a DL despite him playing OLB all season) results in the Vols dropping down to No. 5. Shame, too, because those pages could really have used some of the right shade of orange.

A couple of weeks ago, we started looking at the size of the defensive front seven, ultimately finding that Tennessee’s projected starting lineup should be in the upper tier with Alabama and Georgia this fall. But what about the other side of the ball? Is Tennessee’s offensive line big enough to hold its own against monster-sized defensive fronts?

The benchline for the cumulative weight of the Vols’ offensive line starters was 1,532 pounds in 2017. It dipped to 1,505 in 2018, but is projected to be back around 1,535 this fall. If everything falls right, it could be 1,579.

But how does that compare to Tennessee’s SEC opponents this fall? Unfortunately, not great. Here’s the info:

Even though Tennessee’s projected starting lineup includes all five guys weighing in at over 300 pounds, it still comes in last on that list. Even if you make the most favorable assumptions, the Vols’ are still only sixth on that list at 1,579 pounds.

There are basically three, maybe four, tiers here. First, Georgia is in a class by itself at a monstrous 1,643 pounds. Their lightest starter is 318, and the rest of the guys are 320, 330, 335, and 340 pounds.

Missouri, Mississippi State, and Alabama are all over 1,600 pounds. You can go and ahead include Kentucky, which comes in at 1,592, in that tier or give them their own.

And then come Vanderbilt, Florida, South Carolina, and Tennessee, all 1,550 and under.

At this time, we have no data on the correlation, if any, between cumulative weight of the offensive line and offensive profiency. But I will note that of the teams on that list, the most prolific offenses last fall were Alabama, Missouri, and Georgia.

Tennessee’s made some progress in this area, and if the guys can continue to bulk up over the summer, they could make some additional headway. But this data may be some indication that they’re still going to have a challenge when push comes to shove this fall.