The SPM finished Week 2 at a disappointing 21-24 (46.67%) on all games. Above what is usually a magic confidence level, it went 10-14 (41.67%) and within the usual magic confidence range, it still lost at 3-4 (42.86%). The tweak last week was pulling out all of the games involving FCS opponents. This week, we’ll be putting those back in but monitoring them separately. I still suspect they’re mostly junk or luck.

For the season so far, the SPM is 49-51 (49%) overall, 30-27 (52.63%) over the confidence threshold, and 16-8 (66.67%) within the confidence range.

Although it wasn’t at all confident about the game, the SPM did (barely) win the Tennessee-BYU game, saying the Vols wouldn’t cover the three-point spread. With the Big Orange hosting FCS Chattanooga this week, I’m pressing the button with the full intent of disregarding everything it spits out, but let’s take a look to see what it says.

Tennessee vs. Chattanooga

Yep. The Mocs haven’t played a game against an FBS opponent yet this year, and the only one they played last year was against South Carolina. That means that there’s only one good comp and that it’s a bit stale to boot. With the SPM pitching a fit about insufficient information, I’m going to look both at its results and my own analysis of that game in more detail manually.

In the Chattanooga-South Carolina game last year, the Mocs ran for 78 yards, threw for 256 yards, and scored 9 points. They gave up 238 yards rushing, 364 yards passing, and 49 points to the Gamecocks.

South Carolina’s run, pass, and scoring offense last year were 152.8, 272.8, and 30.1, so against the FCS Mocs they basically got 90 yards more than their average both on the ground and through the air, plus an additional 19 points.

The Gamecocks’ run, pass, and scoring defense last year were 195.3, 229, and 27.2, which means they held the FCS Mocs to less than half of what they usually give up on the ground but actually gave up more passing yardage than they did on average against their entire season-slate. They did hold Chattanooga to one-third of the points they usually gave up last season.

How does 2018 Tennessee compare to 2018 South Carolina? The Vols’ run, pass, and scoring offense last year were 129.1, 196.4, and 22.8. So, not nearly as good on the ground, a little less potent through the air, and about 5 points behind on the scoreboard, compared to the Gamecocks.

On the defensive side, the Vols’ run, pass, and scoring defense last year were 154.5, 222.9, and 27.9. That’s basically the same as the 2018 Gamecocks, but better stopping the run.

SPM Final Estimates

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 59.8, Chattanooga 9

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee -50.8

SPM Confidence level: 22.8

Eyeball adjustments

As I said before, much of the actual SPM output for this week is suspect because there’s only one stale comp. It also still includes an assumed improvement for Tennessee in 2019 over 2018, an assumption that at present appears to be incorrect.

Accounting for all of that, here are my best eyeball-adjusted estimates for Tennessee-Chattanooga:

• Rushing Yards: Mocs 70, Vols 200
• Passing Yards: Mocs 250, Vols 320
• Points: Mocs 9, Vols 45

Other predictions from other systems

The Vegas line is between Tennessee -24 and Tennessee -28 with an over/under of 51.5. That basically translates to something like Tennessee 40, Chattanooga 12.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee 40-11 and gives the Vols a 95% chance of winning. Connelly was 59% overall in Week 1 and 54% in Week 2. I’m not sure how this adds up (must be missing something), but a recent tweet says that for the season he’s 50% overall and 63% in his confidence zone.

As I said above, the season results for our SPM are 49% overall, 52.63% over our confidence threshold, and 66.67% within our confidence range.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 97.7% chance of winning.

Bottom line

Will the Vols cover -28 this weekend? I think the SPM is too high, but I still say yes.

What are y’all thinking?

It’s only the third week of the 2019 college football season, and the Vols ease out of unconsciousness at the bottom of a hole wondering how they got there. But before they can climb out, they first must take care of Chattanooga, who must be wondering whether they can make magic against an unsteady and rattled Tennessee team.

Here’s when and where to find the games that matter to Vols fans this week, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them. First up is the list curated just for Vols fans. The full schedule follows that.

Friday, September 13, 2019

Hey, if you’re just hanging out wondering what to do on Friday, there’s stuff to watch. Catch former Vols coordinator Dave Clawson — the original Pants! — plus Les Miles back on the field and the almost-hired Mike Leach. Woo?

Gameday, September 14, 2019

The Vols kick off at noon against Chattanooga on the SEC Network. Meanwhile, future Vols opponents Georgia and Mississippi State are in games they should win, but if you want a look at them, DVR the games and watch them later.

The CBS SEC Game of the Week is Alabama against South Carolina, two future Vols opponents, although it could get out of hand in a hurry. Other games of interest to Vols fans in that time slot are USC-BYU and a midwest rivalry game between the Hawkeyes and the Cyclones.

In the evening, it’s Tennessee’s next opponent — Florida — against another future opponent in Kentucky. This is where we really start to see the SEC East race take shape. Root for chaos and the ‘Cats. If there’s nothing of the sort on tap, there are other games to channel-hop as you wind down your day.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Looking beyond the W-L record, the Vols’ national stat rankings show some welcome progress in rushing offense and sacks allowed, and the defense got better but not as much as you might think. Here’s a closer look.

Offense

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Rushing offense, sacks allowed

Fell out of the Top 30: 3rd down conversion percentage, red zone offense, passing offense.

Defense

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Rushing defense

Nearly everything here is better, but most not nearly as much as you’d think. Still major problems on third down.

Special Teams

This is still mostly garbage at this point, but punting remains a strength. Kickoff returns took a hit this week.

Turnovers and Penalties

This table is sorted first by category and then by the BYU column, but you can’t tell because Tennessee is currently good at not committing penalties but bad at turnovers.

Sigh. My physical well-being showed a sudden sympathetic solidarity with my mental well-being all Saturday night and Sunday, so I’ve not yet fully processed what happened between the Vols and the Cougars this weekend. I was much more interested in saltines and ginger ale yesterday, so I don’t really even know the mood out there. I do have a pretty good guess.

My initial inclination is to note the devastation of starting 0-2 in a season for which you only expected 7-5 and having those two losses not only come out of the wrong column, but having them come in two of the four games about which you had the most confidence. Said confidence, shot. Dead.

On the other hand — and I don’t know if anyone is ready or willing to hear this at this point — the team did look mostly better, except for the colossal collapse at the end. This appears to be important. In our Reverse Mailbag from last Friday, one of the questions was what our readers wanted to see out of the team against BYU. The answers included progress, fight, something that shows that the team still cares (i.e., a desire to win), defensive improvement, and a solid running game. Those things were evident Saturday night, right up to the point they got eaten by the result.

But a loss is a loss, and we’re now living 2019 in a deep hole. For me, all of that washes out. I had the BYU game as a tossup, and if a double OT game isn’t a tossup, I don’t know what is.

Therefore, I’m keeping everything right where it was last week, which, with the BYU game going from 50/50 to 0 now gives me an expected win total of . . . 2.37. It’s downright gloomy in here.

• Preseason: 6.55
• After Week 0: 6.6
• After Week 1: 2.87
• After Week 2: 2.37

Details: Alabama and Georgia at 1%. Florida at 10%. Kentucky, Missouri, Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt are all 20%. UAB is a toss-up. And I have Chattanooga at 75%.

Here’s the thing, though. Tennessee should have won that game, and they mostly looked like they were improving. We often assume that the team we see today is the same team we’ll see all season long. But it’s only going to take one win against some non-UTC team to shift everything in a more positive direction. But they are going to have to do it first.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 0-2 (0-0), 2nd in the SEC East

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 2-0 (0-0), 1st in the Sun Belt East

BYU Cougars

Current record: 1-1 (0-0)

The Vols’ future opponents

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 1-1 (0-0), 2nd in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 2-0 (0-0), 2nd in the SEC East

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 2-0 (1-0), 1st in the SEC East

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 2-0 (0-0), 2nd in the SEC West

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 2-0 (0-0), 2nd in the SEC West

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 1-1 (0-0), 2nd in the SEC East

UAB Blazers

Current record: 2-0 (0-0), 1st in C-USA West

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-0 (0-0), 2nd in the SEC East

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 1-1 (0-0), 2nd in the SEC East

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-2 (0-1), 7th in the SEC East

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the Tennessee Volunteers looking to rid themselves of the bitter Georgia State aftertaste with a win against the BYU Cougars. Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch today as well, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

• Kickoff: 7:00
• TV: ESPN
• Official video streaming: Watch ESPN
• Official audio streaming: Vol Network
• Live stats

The best other games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:

And here’s a searchable version of the entire college football TV schedule for this week:

GRT games and contests

While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.

GRT game-week audio

Here’s our podcast from earlier this week:

And you can find Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Heather Harrington on WNML’s Sports 180 here.

Pre-game prep

To catch up on your pre-game reading, have a look at our game preview posts from earlier this week:

• Reverse mailbag: 3 questions for the GRT community
• What Can We Expect Now?
• What the SPM comps say about Tennessee-BYU
• Video: The entire Jauan Jennings interview, plus Ryan Johnson
• Tennessee Vols statistical ranking trends – after Georgia State
• Assess the damage to your expectations here
• Where’s the Line Between Perspective and Apathy?

Go Vols!