Tennessee’s defensive rankings improved, and special teams is still a strength for the Vols, after the game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Offense
Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing.
Climbed into the Top 30: Passing Yards per Completion
Fell into the Bottom 30: Scoring Offense, Passes Had Intercepted
Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing.
I expected to see a little more positive movement on these, especially in Rushing Offense. Hmm.
Defense
Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Team Tackles for Loss.
Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing.
Fell into the Bottom 30: Nothing.
Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing.
Lots of positive movement here. The biggest mover was in Team Sacks, which went from No. 96 to No. 43. Passing Yards Allowed also improved a lot this week.
Special Teams
No red in this entire category since the BYU game. Net Punting recovered a bit this week, but it still has a ways to go to get its mojo back.
Turnovers and Penalties
Some improvement in penalties this week, and there was more action in turnovers Saturday, although it unfortunately occurred on both sides of the ledger.
Congratulations to PAVolFan, who finished first this week in the Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em contest with a record of 15-5 and 163 confidence points.
Here are the full results for this week:
Rank
Player
W-L
Points
Tiebreaker
1
jeremy.waldroop
16-4
184
13-52
2
rsbrooks25
18-2
179
14-51
3
Hjohn
15-5
178
14-45
4
corn from a jar
16-4
176
6-45**
4
claireb7tx
16-4
176
17-45
6
hounddog3
16-4
174
17-52
7
trdlgmsr
16-4
173
7-45**
7
waitwhereami
16-4
173
10-49
7
TennRebel
15-5
173
10-52
10
GeorgeMonkey
15-5
171
14-48**
10
Joel @ GRT
16-4
171
17-48
10
doritoscowboy
16-4
171
0-0
13
tbone
16-4
170
17-42**
13
memphispete
16-4
170
7-56
13
cnyvol
15-5
170
17-55
13
alanmar
15-5
170
24-49
17
wedflatrock
15-5
169
19-45
18
LuckyGuess
15-5
168
10-38**
18
joeb_1
14-6
168
12-44
20
Anaconda
15-5
167
26-33**
20
Sam
15-5
167
10-50
20
keepontruckin
15-5
167
16-45
20
Orange On Orange
15-5
167
20-42
24
Knottfair
14-6
166
13-48**
24
Crusher
14-6
166
14-52
24
PAVolFan
15-5
166
24-45
24
Raven17
15-5
166
17-56
28
Wilk21
15-5
165
10-49**
28
Jahiegel
14-6
165
14-48
30
Rossboro
16-4
164
0-50**
30
boro wvvol
14-6
164
10-45
30
birdjam
13-7
164
13-45
30
DinnerJacket
13-7
164
20-42
30
patmd
16-4
164
10-52
30
UTSeven
14-6
164
43-42
36
Hixson Vol1
14-6
163
14-45**
36
ga26engr
15-5
163
12-48
36
daetilus
14-6
163
17-48
39
Phonies
15-5
161
10-45**
39
Harley
15-5
161
17-48
41
ChuckieTVol
17-3
160
13-49
42
Displaced_Vol_Fan
14-6
158
12-47**
42
jfarrar90
12-8
158
13-48
42
Jayyyy
14-6
158
20-50
45
HUTCH
14-6
157
6-49**
45
mmmjtx
14-6
157
21-42
45
mariettavol
15-5
157
10-68
45
bluelite
13-7
157
7-0
49
ctull
13-7
154
10-35
50
C_hawkfan
15-5
153
13-44
51
rollervol
12-8
151
24-23
52
vols95
12-8
149
17-45
53
VillaVol
13-7
147
2-48**
53
ltvol99
15-5
147
10-41
53
TennVol95 in 3D!
11-9
147
28-24
56
rockytopinKy
15-5
146
0-0
57
Neil Neisner
15-5
144
10-52**
57
Bulldog 85
12-8
144
20-45
59
ddayvolsfan
14-6
135
10-52
60
Timbuktu126
12-8
131
11-17
61
PensacolaVolFan
12-8
123
0-50
62
Aaron Birkholz
0-20
122
-
62
mmb61
0-20
122
-
62
UTVols18
0-20
122
-
62
Salty Seth
0-20
122
-
62
Teri28
0-20
122
-
62
Will Shelton
0-20
122
-
62
tpi
0-20
122
-
62
aaron217
0-20
122
-
62
If you ain’t first you’re
0-20
122
-
62
tallahasseevol
0-20
122
-
62
dgibbs
0-20
122
-
62
waltsspac
0-20
122
-
62
Willewillm
0-20
122
-
62
Orange Swarm
0-20
122
-
62
Dmorton
0-20
122
-
62
RockyPopPicks
0-20
122
-
62
Jrstep
0-20
122
-
62
ed75
0-20
122
-
62
OriginalVol1814
0-20
122
-
62
BristVol
0-20
122
-
62
orange_devil87
0-20
122
-
62
VFL49er
0-20
122
-
62
ddutcher
0-20
122
-
62
BZACHARY
0-20
122
-
62
Caban Greys
0-20
122
-
62
cactusvol
0-20
122
-
62
Techboy
0-20
122
-
62
JLPasour
0-20
122
-
PAVolFan also sneaks into the lead for the season with a record of 98-42 and 1133 confidence points. There are four players within two points of each other at the top, though, so it’s a close race.
Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.
The GRT Expected Win Total Machine
My assessment
My nutshell assessment of the Vols after the Mississippi State game is that the team is indeed improving, and I think they’re doing it in all of the right places and all of the right ways. With Maurer going out early and Guarantano taking over against the Bulldogs, it does seem to me that the problems aren’t necessarily personnel but, as some of us suspected, just a matter of navigating the learning curve of two new coordinators and a bunch of new players at key positions. I still think that elite teams are going to make the Vols look worse than they really are, but I am feeling much more comfortable against most the second-tier of the SEC East.
Meanwhile, Missouri’s looking good but still has Florida and Georgia looming, and South Carolina looks dangerous. But Kentucky and Vanderbilt look more and more beatable. UAB looks like maybe they deserve to be in the same group as the Wildcats and the Commodores, though, rather than set apart in the feel-good range.
With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 4.4, up, but by only slightly more than half a game from last week.
Preseason: 6.55
After Week 0: 6.6
After Week 1: 2.87
After Week 2: 2.37
After Week 3: 3.65
After Week 4: 2.9
After Week 5: 3.25
After Week 6: 3.85
After Week 7: 4.4
Details: Alabama remains at 5%. Missouri moves from 25% to 35%, and South Carolina joins them there. Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and UAB all move to 55%, Kentucky and Vanderbilt from 50% and UAB from 75%.
Here’s a table with my expectations this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 2-4 (1-2), 5th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to Georgia State, 30-38
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to BYU, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Chattanooga, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ No. 9 Florida, 34-3
Sat, Oct 5
Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Mississippi State, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19
Lost @ 1 Alabama, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26
Beat South Carolina, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2
Beat UAB, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Kentucky, 17-13
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Missouri, 24-20
Sat, Nov 30
vs Vanderbilt
The Vols’ past opponents
Georgia State Panthers
Current record: 4-2 (2-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Tennessee, 38-30
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Furman, 48-42
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to Western Michigan, 57-10
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Texas State, 37-34 3OT
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Arkansas State, 52-38
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Coastal Carolina, 31-21
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Army, 28-21
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Troy, 52-33
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ UL Monroe, 45-31
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 25 Appalachian State, 56-27
Sat, Nov 23
Beat South Alabama, 28-15
Sat, Nov 30
@ Georgia Southern
It’s not accurate to say that the Vols lost to a good team when they lost to Georgia State. But it’s also no longer accurate to say that the Vols lost to a 2-10 Sun Belt team. The Panthers are now 4-2 and 2nd in the Sun Belt East, and they’re better this year than they were last year. They still shouldn’t have beaten the Vols in Neyland Stadium, but maybe they’re actually a little better than we thought.
BYU Cougars
Current record: 2-4 (0-0)
Thu, Aug 29
Lost to No. 14 Utah, 12-30
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Tennessee, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14
Beat No. 24 USC, 30-27 OT
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to No. 22 Washington, 45-19
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ Toledo, 28-21
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ South Florida, 27-23
Sat, Oct 19
Beat No. 14 Boise State, 28-25
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Utah State, 42-14
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Liberty, 31-24
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Idaho State, 42-10
Sat, Nov 23
Beat UMass, 56-24
Sat, Nov 30
@ San Diego State
The Cougars led 23-14 heading into the fourth quarter and lost 27-23 to South Florida. They’ve now lost their last three games, the last two of them to unranked teams.
Chattanooga Mocs
Current record: 3-3 (2-0), 2nd in the Southern Conference
Thu, Aug 29
Beat Eastern Illinois, 24-10
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to Jacksonville State, 41-20
Sat, Sep 14
Lost at Tennessee, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to James Madison, 37-14
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Western Carolina, 60-36
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Mercer, 34-17
Thu, Oct 17
Beat East Tennessee State, 16-13
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Wofford, 35-34 OT
Sat, Nov 2
Lost to Furman, 35-20
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Samford, 35-27
Sat, Nov 16
Beat The Citadel, 34-33
Sat, Nov 23
Lost to VMI, 31-24
Off this week.
Florida Gators
Current record: 6-1 (3-1), 1st in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 24
Beat Miami, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7
Beat UT Martin, 45-0
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Kentucky, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Tennessee, 34-3
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Towson, 38-0
Sat, Oct 5
Beat No. 7 Auburn, 24-13
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ No. 5 LSU, 42-28
Sat, Oct 19
Beat South Carolina, 38-27
Sat, Nov 2
Lost to No. 8 Georgia, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Vanderbilt, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Missouri, 23-6
Sat, Nov 30
vs Florida State
Played two Top 10 teams in the last two weeks. Beat one at home, lost to the other on the road. LSU looks like the best of the three, but Florida’s still a Top 10 team in my book.
Georgia Bulldogs
Current record: 5-1 (2-1), 3rd in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Vanderbilt, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Murray State, 63-17
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Arkansas State, 55-0
Sat, Sep 21
Beat No. 7 Notre Dame, 23-17
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Tennessee, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12
Lost to South Carolina, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Kentucky, 21-0
Sat, Nov 2
Beat No. 6 Florida, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Missouri, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16
Beat No. 12 Auburn, 21-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Texas A&M, 19-13
Sat, Nov 30
@ Georgia Tech
I didn’t see anything but the end of regulation and the two overtimes in this one, but I will say that Georgia had their butts saved at least a couple of times before finally tempting fate a time too many. Credit to the Gamecocks, and this one has to make Vols fans feel worse both about the loss to Georgia and the upcoming game against South Carolina, but it also has a sort of outlier feel to it.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Current record: 3-3 (1-2), 5th in the SEC West
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Louisiana, 38-28
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Southern Mississippi, 38-15
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to Kansas State, 31-24
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Kentucky, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ No. 7 Auburn, 56-23
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ Tennessee, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 2 LSU
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Texas A&M, 49-30
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Arkansas, 54-24
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 5 Alabama, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Abilene Christian, 45-7
Thu, Nov 28
vs Ole Miss
The Vols’ future opponents
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 6-0 (3-0), 1st in the SEC West
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Duke, 42-3
Sat, Sep 7
Beat New Mexico State, 62-10
Sat, Sep 14
Beat South Carolina, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Southern Miss, 49-7
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Ole Miss, 59-31
Sat, Oct 12
Beat No. 24 Texas A&M, 47-28
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Tennessee, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Arkansas, 48-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to No. 2 LSU, 46-41
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Mississippi State, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Western Carolina, 66-3
Sat, Nov 30
@ No. 11 Auburn
Tua’s touchdown-to-interception ratio this season is 27:1. My takeaway from that is that we can get an interception next week as long as we give up 27 touchdowns first.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 3-3 (2-2), 4th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to North Carolina, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Charleston Southern, 72-10
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to No. 2 Alabama, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Missouri, 34-14
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Kentucky, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12
Beat No. 3 Georgia, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 9 Florida, 38-27
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Tennessee, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Vanderbilt, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to Appalachian State, 20-15
Sat, Nov 16
Lost @ Texas A&M, 30-6
Sat, Nov 30
vs 4 Clemson
Just beat the No. 3 team in the nation. Currently fourth in the SEC East with two conference losses. On their third quarterback this season already. Okay, then.
UAB Blazers
Current record: 5-1 (2-1), 3rd in C-USA West
Thu, Aug 29
Beat Alabama State, 24-19
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Akron, 31-20
Sat, Sep 21
Beat South Alabama, 35-3
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ Western Kentucky, 20-13
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Rice, 35-20
Sat, Oct 12
Beat UTSA, 33-14
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Old Dominion, 38-14
Sat, Nov 2
Lost @ Tennessee, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ Southern Miss, 37-2
Sat, Nov 16
Beat UTEP, 37-10
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Louisiana Tech, 20-14
Sat, Nov 30
@ North Texas
I’m sounding the alarm on the UAB Blazers, although nobody’s going to pay any attention. Yes, that’s a nobody schedule, but it’s also a lot of Ws.
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 3-3 (1-3), 6th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Toledo, 38-24
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Eastern Michigan, 38-17
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to No. 8 Florida, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Mississippi State, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Arkansas, 24-20
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 10 Georgia, 21-0
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Missouri, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to Tennessee, 17-13
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Vanderbilt, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat UT Martin, 50-7
Sat, Nov 30
vs Louisville
Some will find it funny that the Arkansas Razorbacks just got beat by a Kentucky team starting a wide receiver at quarterback. For some reason, I don’t think that’s funny at all. Not one single bit.
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 5-1 (2-0), 1st in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to Wyoming, 37-31
Sat, Sep 7
Beat West Virginia, 38-7
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Southeast Missouri State, 50-0
Sat, Sep 21
Beat South Carolina, 34-14
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Troy, 42-10
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Ole Miss, 38-27
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to Vanderbilt, 21-14
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Kentucky, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ No. 6 Georgia, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 11 Florida, 23-6
Sat, Nov 23
Lost to Tennessee, 24-20
Fri, Nov 29
@ Arkansas
Don’t look now, but the Missouri Tigers are first in the SEC East. Those back-to-back games against Georgia and Florida in mid-November loom.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 1-5 (0-3), 7th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to Purdue, 42-24
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to No. 4 LSU, 66-38
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Northern Illinois, 24-18
Sat, Oct 5
Lost to Ole Miss, 31-6
Sat, Oct 12
Lost to UNLV, 34-10
Sat, Oct 19
Beat No. 22 Missouri, 21-14
Sat, Nov 2
Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ No. 10 Florida, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to Kentucky, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat ETSU, 38-0
Sat, Nov 30
@ Tennessee
Oh, my. Halfway through the season and one win, against Northern Illinois. (No, I wouldn’t have written this had the Vols lost to Mississippi State. Why do you ask?)
What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?
It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the Vols hosting the Mississippi State Bulldogs today at Neyland Stadium. Winning this game as a 6.5-point underdog could change the narrative of the season by turning a handful of other 60/40 games into 50/50 games or better. Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Tennessee fans. Where and when to find the Tennessee-Mississippi State game on TV, what other games to watch as well, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.
When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?
Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:
The Gameday Gameplan for Tennessee fans doesn’t just include watching the Vols take on the Bulldogs. Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:
Away
Home
Time
TV
How
Why
NOON
Mississippi State
Tennessee
12:00 PM
SECN
Live
Go Vols
South Carolina
No. 3 Georgia
12:00 PM
ESPN
DVR
Future and prior opponents
No. 6 Oklahoma
No. 11 Texas
12:00 PM
FOX
Top 15 matchup
AFTERNOON
No. 1 Alabama
No. 24 Texas A&M
3:30 PM
CBS
Live
Future opponent, Top 25 matchup
UNLV
Vanderbilt
4:00 PM
SECN
DVR, Check-in
Future opponent
UAB
UTSA
6:00 PM
ESPN+
DVR, Check-in
Future opponent
EVENING
No. 7 Florida
No. 5 LSU
8:00 PM
ESPN
Live
Former opponent, Top 10 matchup
Ole Miss
Missouri
7:00 PM
ESPN2
DVR
Future opponent
And here’s a searchable version of this week’s entire college football TV schedule:
Date
Away
Home
Time
TV
10/9/19
Appalachian State
Louisiana
8:00 PM
ESPN2
10/10/19
Syracuse
NC State
8:00 PM
ESPN
10/10/19
UL Monroe
Texas State
9:15 PM
ESPNU
10/11/19
Virginia
Miami
8:00 PM
ESPN
10/11/19
Colorado State
New Mexico
8:00 PM
CBSSN
10/11/19
Colorado
Oregon
10:00 PM
FS1
10/12/19
South Carolina
Georgia
12:00 PM
ESPN
10/12/19
Oklahoma
Texas
12:00 PM
FOX
10/12/19
Michigan
Illinois
12:00 PM
ABC
10/12/19
Memphis
Temple
12:00 PM
ESPN2
10/12/19
Maryland
Purdue
12:00 PM
10/12/19
Mississippi State
Tennessee
12:00 PM
SECN
10/12/19
Rutgers
Indiana
12:00 PM
10/12/19
Miami (OH)
Western Michigan
12:00 PM
ESPNU
10/12/19
Toledo
Bowling Green
12:00 PM
10/12/19
Georgia Tech
Duke
12:30 PM
ACCNX
10/12/19
Ball State
Eastern Michigan
2:00 PM
ESPN+
10/12/19
Old Dominion
Marshall
2:30 PM
10/12/19
New Mexico State
Central Michigan
3:00 PM
ESPN3
10/12/19
Alabama
Texas A&M
3:30 PM
CBS
10/12/19
Florida State
Clemson
3:30 PM
ABC
10/12/19
Michigan State
Wisconsin
3:30 PM
10/12/19
Washington State
Arizona State
3:30 PM
PAC12
10/12/19
Cincinnati
Houston
3:30 PM
ESPN2
10/12/19
BYU
South Florida
3:30 PM
CBSSN
10/12/19
Kent State
Akron
3:30 PM
ESPN3
10/12/19
Northern Illinois
Ohio
3:30 PM
ESPN+
10/12/19
UConn
Tulane
3:45 PM
ESPNU
10/12/19
Texas Tech
Baylor
4:00 PM
10/12/19
San Jose State
Nevada
4:00 PM
10/12/19
UNLV
Vanderbilt
4:00 PM
SECN
10/12/19
Iowa State
West Virginia
4:00 PM
ESPN
10/12/19
Rhode Island
Virginia Tech
4:00 PM
ACCN
10/12/19
Middle Tennessee
Florida Atlantic
4:00 PM
ESPN+
10/12/19
Georgia State
Coastal Carolina
5:00 PM
ESPN+
10/12/19
UAB
UTSA
6:00 PM
ESPN+
10/12/19
Army
Western Kentucky
7:00 PM
10/12/19
UMass
Louisiana Tech
7:00 PM
ESPN3
10/12/19
North Texas
Southern Mississippi
7:00 PM
10/12/19
Fresno State
Air Force
7:00 PM
CBSSN
10/12/19
Ole Miss
Missouri
7:00 PM
ESPN2
10/12/19
Charlotte
Florida International
7:00 PM
ESPN+
10/12/19
USC
Notre Dame
7:30 PM
NBC
10/12/19
Penn State
Iowa
7:30 PM
ABC
10/12/19
Louisville
Wake Forest
7:30 PM
ACCN
10/12/19
Nebraska
Minnesota
7:30 PM
10/12/19
Arkansas
Kentucky
7:30 PM
SECN
10/12/19
Navy
Tulsa
7:30 PM
ESPNU
10/12/19
Florida
LSU
8:00 PM
ESPN
10/12/19
Utah
Oregon State
8:00 PM
PAC12
10/12/19
Hawai'i
Boise State
10:15 PM
ESPN2
10/12/19
Wyoming
San Diego State
10:30 PM
CBSSN
10/12/19
Washington
Arizona
11:00 PM
GRT games and contests
While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.
It’s Friday before Gameday, and that means it’s time for the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game. If you’ve played before, you know the deal, and you can skip to the questions below. If not, catch up here.
Let’sa go!
Submit your answers to our three questions below.
Click the “Submit” button.
Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.
The Bulldogs opened as a 6.5-point favorite over Tennessee, and the line has now moved to 7. Will the Vols cover against Mississippi State?
The SPM’s performance so far in 2019
The SPM went 26-20 (56.52%) in Week 6 on all games. Above the pre-chosen confidence level it was 12-4 (75%) and within the pre-chosen confidence range it was 5-2 (71.43%). That’s a bit odd, as it’s usually better in the range than just over the threshold, but there you are.
For the season, the SPM is doing well in its feel-good spots but still playing catch up overall. It’s 132-143 (48%) overall, 66-58 (53.23%) above the confidence level, and 33-20 (62.26%) within the confidence range. The SPM was feeling confident last week when it predicted that Georgia would cover the 25.5-point spread, and to our dismay it was right.
So what does the SPM have to say about the Tennessee-Mississippi State game? Let’s have a look.
Vols-Bulldogs
From the perspective of Mississippi State
Bulldogs points:
Mississippi State scoring offense for the season: 30.2
Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 28.8
The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Mississippi State opponent(s) (FBS only):
Southern Mississippi 30.4
Kentucky 24.4
Mississippi State scored 28 points against Kentucky and 38 points against Southern Mississippi. So, against the two best comps, Mississippi State is scoring 1.2 of what those teams usually give up.
Estimated points for Mississippi State against Tennessee: 34.6
Tennessee points:
Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23.6
Mississippi State scoring defense for the season: 28.6
The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Mississippi State opponent(s):
Kentucky 23.4
Southern Mississippi 27.6
Against Kentucky, Mississippi State allowed 13 points, and against Southern Mississippi, they allowed 15, meaning Mississippi State allowed only 0.55 of what those teams usually score.
Estimated points for Tennessee against Mississippi State: 13
Estimated score: Mississippi State 34.6, Tennessee 13
From the perspective of Tennessee
Tennessee points:
Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23.6
Mississippi State scoring defense for the season: 28.6
The Mississippi State scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):
BYU 31.2
Georgia State 40.8
Tennessee scored 26 points against BYU and 30 points against Georgia State, which means that Tennessee scored 0.78 of what those teams usually give up.
Estimated points for Tennessee against Mississippi State: 22.3
Mississippi State points:
Mississippi State scoring offense for the season: 30.2
Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 28.8
The Mississippi State scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):
Florida 32.3
Georgia State 36.4
Tennessee allowed 34 points to Florida and 38 points to Georgia State. So, against the two best comps, Tennessee allowed 1.05 of what those teams usually score.
Estimated points for Mississippi State against Tennessee: 31.7
Estimated score: Tennessee 22.3, Mississippi State 31.7
SPM Final Estimates
Tossing all of that into the soup, here’s what the SPM cooks up:
SPM Final estimated score: Mississippi State 33.2, Tennessee 17.6
SPM Final estimated spread: Mississippi State -15.6
SPM Confidence level: 9.1
That 9.1 confidence level is in the confidence range that the SPM likes the best this season. In other words, this is one of its favorite picks this week. SPM, I hated you last week, and I hate you again this week.
Eyeball adjustments
Here’s the thing. The SPM is for the most part blissfully unaware of Mississippi State’s game against Auburn. It’s accounted for in the Bulldogs’ offensive and defensive scoring numbers for the year, but it is completely ignored as a comp. Whether it should be or not is, of course, the question. Tennessee is not Auburn. But whether that game revealed some exploitable vulnerability, well, that is the question. The SPM also doesn’t know the names “Jarrett Guarantano” or “Brian Maurer” or how either of those names translates into points.
With that, I’m torn. I trust the machine in that confidence range, but over 15 just seems too high. If I was picking this game with my eyes closed and computer off, I’d probably go with 20 points for the Vols and 24-27 for the Bulldogs. So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Mississippi State 27, Tennessee 20, a spread of 7. That’s still a prediction that the Vols won’t cover. I now hate myself, too.
Other predictions from other systems
The Vegas line opened with Mississippi State a 6.5-point favorite, and it has now moved to 7. The over/under of 53 translates to Mississippi State 30, Tennessee 23. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 35% chance of winning.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Georgia, 31-25, and gives the Vols a 37% chance of winning. That’s a spread of -6, so it’s picking Tennessee to cover. SP+ cooled just a wee bit last week, going 26-22 (54%) overall, but it’s still hot enough to scorch at 58% on the season. As I said earlier, our SPM is only 48% on the season, but it was 56.52% this week. It’s over 62% in our feel-good range.
Bottom line
Both I and the SPM think the Vols fail to cover the opening 6.5-point spread this week.
The Vols host Mississippi State this Saturday at noon on the SEC Network. In addition to that, there’s the Red River Rivalry, a Top 25 SEC matchup, a Top 10 SEC matchup, and some future Vols opponents in action. Here’s when and where to find those games, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.
First up is the list curated just for Vols fans. The full schedule follows that.
Wednesday, October 9, 2019
Away
Home
Time
TV
How
Why
Appalachian State
Louisiana
8:00 PM
ESPN2
Live
It's football
Thursday, October 10, 2019
Away
Home
Time
TV
How
Why
Syracuse
NC State
8:00 PM
ESPN
Live
It's football
Friday, October 11, 2019
Away
Home
Time
TV
How
Why
No. 20 Virginia
Miami
8:00 PM
ESPN
Channel Hop
Top 25 team
There are three maybe-decent games on Friday night, although with the Vols game kicking at noon on Gameday, I wouldn’t recommend the Colorado-Oregon game that starts at 10:00, except for the whipper-snappers who haven’t figured out that sleep is important yet. #GetOffMyLawn
Gameday, October 12, 2019
Away
Home
Time
TV
How
Why
NOON
Mississippi State
Tennessee
12:00 PM
SECN
Live
Go Vols
South Carolina
No. 3 Georgia
12:00 PM
ESPN
DVR
Future and prior opponents
No. 6 Oklahoma
No. 11 Texas
12:00 PM
FOX
Top 15 matchup
AFTERNOON
No. 1 Alabama
No. 24 Texas A&M
3:30 PM
CBS
Live
Future opponent, Top 25 matchup
UNLV
Vanderbilt
4:00 PM
SECN
DVR, Check-in
Future opponent
UAB
UTSA
6:00 PM
ESPN+
DVR, Check-in
Future opponent
EVENING
No. 7 Florida
No. 5 LSU
8:00 PM
ESPN
Live
Former opponent, Top 10 matchup
Ole Miss
Missouri
7:00 PM
ESPN2
DVR
Future opponent
The Vols kick the day off at noon on the SEC Network against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. At the same time, former opponent Georgia hosts future opponent South Carolina on ESPN. Meanwhile, the casual nation’s eyes will be on the Red River Rivalry on Fox, also at noon.
The main game in the afternoon slot is a Top 25 SEC matchup between No. 1 Alabama and No. 24 Texas A&M on CBS. There are two future Vols opponents in action in that slot, too, in Vanderbilt and UAB, so DVR them for scouting and maybe just check in with them live if the Tide-Aggies game gets out of hand.
The prime time slot features a Top 10 SEC matchup between the No. 7 Florida Gators (boo!) and the No. 5 LSU Tigers (Geaux Tigahs!) That one’s on ESPN at 8:00. Future opponent Missouri is also in action on ESPN2 at 7:00 against Ole Miss.
